• Trump's decision to invite China's Xi Jinping to his inauguration surprised many observers.
• China is the US' main geopolitical rival, jostling for dominance across a range of trade and diplomatic issues.
• Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, balancing confrontational China policies with praise.

When President-elect Donald Trump invited China's President Xi Jinping, the leader of the US' biggest geopolitical rival, to his January inauguration on Thursday, it came as somewhat of a surprise.

The sight of Xi, China's authoritarian strongman, seated alongside top US political and military officials in DC would be incongruous, to say the least.

But Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, and has often balanced his confrontational China policies with years of lavishing praise for Xi.

Some see Trump's invitation as the latest power play designed to imbalance Xi and reset US-China relations.

"I think it's a gimmick. It would be impossible for Xi to attend without giving the sort of sign that he's almost like a vassal," Kerry Brown, an associate of the Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, told Business Insider.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the invitation also reflects Trump's faith in the personal, transactional relationships he's formed with strongman leaders.

"Trump's invitation reflects his desire to rebuild a rapport with President Xi, which he believes will be the decisive dynamic in shaping US-China relations during his second administration," Wyne told BI.

Reports on Thursday said that Xi would not attend the inauguration, and would instead send a top government official as envoy as an apparent gesture of goodwill.

If he did attend, it could be seen as an act of tribute to the democratic system China has sought to challenge, and the power of a state whose dominance it seeks to corrode.

"Going to Trump's inauguration makes Xi Jinping look like a supplicant to Trump, because this is a ceremony honoring Trump," Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told ABC News.

Thomas added: "Xi would be attending to honor Trump's victory, I don't think that sits well with Xi's self-image and his political reputation in China as a nationalist strongman."

A tough road ahead

Even so, Trump's invitation is likely an audacious opening gambit as he eyes new discussions with Xi, and China is fortifying itself diplomatically and economically in anticipation, analysts told Reuters.

Trump has long championed policies that aggressively confront China, and is threatening to ratchet up tariffs further when he takes office again next year.

Future negotiations will likely be tough, with the US and China at loggerheads over a range of trade and diplomatic issues.

China has backed Russia in its war with Ukraine, is forming closer ties with an axis of authoritarian powers, and is menacing Taiwan.

"Trump is performing politics," said Brown. "This is going to be a hard, difficult, technical negotiation with the Chinese if they're going to get the things they want: better market access, better balance."

China is also in a different position to when Trump first took office in 2017. Back then, the US and Chinese economies were highly interlinked.

Although close ties remain, partly in response to Trump's first-term tariffs China has moved to diversify its exports away from the US and has spent billions on research and development.

It has become the world leader in solar-panel and electric-vehicle technologies, as well as quantum computing and AI.

The US-China rivalry is also intensifying over sophisticated chip and satellite technologies, as well as rare Earth metals.

This month, China launched an antimonopoly probe into US chip giant Nvidia, and it is imposing restrictions on the export of drone parts vital for Ukraine in combatting Russia's invasion.

"It's all part of what's going to be a great, big performance next year about Trump trying to say that he's going to deliver this fantastic new deal with China. And the Chinese are well prepared for this," said Brown.

Analysts told Bloomberg that the Nvidia probe and other trade moves are bargaining chips China can use in future discussions.

All of this makes it highly unlikely that Xi will want to come to the US to clap as Trump is sworn in as president.

• South Korea was in chaos on Tuesday after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
• Yoon reversed course hours after invoking the law and now faces being impeached.
• South Korea's foe, North Korea, could seek to exploit the turmoil.

Kim Jong Un, North Korea's emboldened leader, is likely watching the events in South Korea closely and may use the turmoil to his benefit.

"We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea's democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul," Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford to CNN.

"We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise," he added.

It comes after South Korea, long one of the US' most important Asian allies, was tipped into political chaos on Tuesday when its president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law.

Yoon reversed course six hours later after lawmakers blocked the declaration. Calls for the president's resignation are now growing.

All six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea's longtime enemy, but it's likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.

How North Korea may respond

North Korea may decide it's "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation," Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US National Intelligence Council, told VOA.

The unrest comes at a time of heightened tensions in East Asia.

South Korea has long been backed by the US, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the republic, in its decadeslong frozen war with North Korea.

But North Korea, fuelled by Russian money and goods after backing the Kremlin's Ukraine invasion, is becoming more assertive and more aggressive.

It's escalating its threats toward South Korea, while ally China menaces US ally Taiwan with invasion.

Meanwhile, the US is seeking to bolster its democratic allies in the region to deter aggression by the axis of authoritarian states. It was reportedly caught off guard by Yoon's declaration on Tuesday but sought to project unwavering support for South Korean security as the turmoil unfolded.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday said the US commitment to South Korean security remained "ironclad."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea] with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Kim could use the crisis to intimidate and undermine its neighbor, and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US, say analysts.

Seiler told VOA that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

It could also take the form of propaganda designed to erode trust in democracy and government stability in South Korea.

US support may act as a deterrent

Not everyone agrees that there will be much action from North Korea, however. For one thing, US support for South Korea may act as a significant deterrent.

"North Korea is very likely to seek to capitalize politically. But the South Korea-US alliance is robust, with the two main political parties and 90% of South Koreans supporting it," Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of Department of European and International Studies at SOAS, told Business Insider.

David Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, told Newsweek that Kim is likely "rubbing his hands with glee" but said he was not in a good position to respond.

"I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea's political system, but not much else," he said.

• Donald Trump has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine.
• However, analysts say it relies on Ukraine being in a position of strength.
• Trump allies have questioned US support for Ukraine.

Donald Trump may be more likely to get a peace deal from Russia if he places Ukraine in a position of strength, according to analysts.

The President-elect has said his priority is to end the war in Ukraine and stop what he believes is a drain on US military resources.

On Wednesday, he selected retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, where he'll likely lead the drive to broker peace talks.

It's a move that may concern the US' European allies, with Kellogg previously having suggested handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Military and political leaders in Europe are warning that a deal that hands too much to Russia will likely just be a prelude to further conflict.

Analysts told Business Insider that a meaningful peace deal can only be brokered by backing Ukraine and ensuring it can negotiate from a position of strength.

John Lough, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said abandoning Ukraine could make Trump appear weak and embolden the US's main global competitors.

"If he abandons Ukraine and says, 'I'm not going to fund this anymore, the US doesn't need this,' and as a consequence, the Russians make a strategic advance in Europe, and take a further step to dismantle the US-led security order in Europe, that would undoubtedly look weak," said Lough.

Instead, say experts, Ukraine must be placed in a position to deter Russia.

In recent months, Russia has exploited Ukraine's lack of manpower and artillery, making significant advances in east Ukraine.

At the same time, it's intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's cities and infrastructure, with one million civilians without power after strikes this week.

Kellogg's position is more complex than that of President Joe Biden, who backed arming Ukraine to push Russia back and left it up to Kyiv to decide when to negotiate.

Instead, Kellogg argues that Ukraine's aid should be cut if it refuses to negotiate with the Kremlin, but US aid to Ukraine should be boosted if Russia won't take part in talks.

Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute in Washington, DC, in an interview with CNN Wednesday warned that Putin has little incentive to seek peace with Ukraine if he believes support for Kyiv is weakening.

"If President Trump is credible in basically threatening to provide Ukraine with what it needs to retake territory and to hold on to the Russian territory, then that puts pressure on Putin because this war is not popular in Russia," said Farkas.

"So every day he has to wait, and if he thinks that Ukraine now has time on its side, meaning President Trump will back Ukraine, he will then be more motivated to seek a deal."

Ultimately, achieving a lasting peace deal in Ukraine will depend on deterring Russia, not on walking away.

"Any deal is still going to involve US support in some form to keep the peace. Ukraine needs to maintain effective armed forces to deter further Russian aggression," said Lough.