• Prospinity allows college students to share in their success through income-share agreements.
• Just a year old, the startup already has hundreds of Ivy League students using its product.
• Prospinity raised $2 million to expand to new universities in a deal led by Slow Ventures.

When they were freshmen at Yale, Aarya Agarwal and his roommate, Samvel Antonyan, struck a handshake deal.

If either of them ever started a company that went supernova, they would sign away 10% of their income to the other.

"We shook hands, and at the moment, it was a bit of a joke," Agarwal said. "But we realized the deal actually made a lot of economic sense. It was a way to multiply by two times our chances of doing something super improbable."

Now, their startup, Prospinity, allows college students to enter into similar contracts. Through its platform, smart young people can join "success pools" of other smart young people who put a few percentage points of their annual income into a shared pot. Each year, the pot gets distributed evenly among the group. The idea is that if one of them becomes the next Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates, they will all succeed.

Just a year old, Prospinity is already used by students at Yale, MIT, Princeton, and Harvard, with job offers at firms like Blackstone, Bridgewater, and Amazon. Now, Prospinity has raised $2 million in a round led by Slow Ventures managing director Kevin Colleran to reach more students beyond the Ivy League.

Prospinity and Slow Ventures declined to comment on the valuation. Patrick Chung, a managing partner at Xfund and an investor in Sam Altman's first company, Loopt, also joined the round.

Slow Ventures has explored income sharing as an investment strategy before. It set aside $20 million from recent funds to buy equity in influencers, taking a percentage of their future profits for a set amount of time in exchange for upfront capital. Regulatory filings show Slow is now raising $275 million across two new funds, which Fortune first reported.

How Prospinity works

When Prospinity rolls out to a new university, it researches the student body and selects a handful of high achievers to create or join a success pool. They can hop onto Prospinity, check out the profiles of existing members, and filter by university or industry. Prospinity is now recruiting students from the University of California, Berkeley, to join the platform.

Prospinity says the contracts are legally binding and can ensure everyone pays their fair share over the agreement's term, typically 10 years. Pool members can also set a minimum income; if someone's earnings fall below the threshold, they're excluded from that year's distribution. Prospinity takes a 5% distribution cut in exchange for providing the technical and legal infrastructure to execute the contract.

While the company's hundreds of members are mostly still in school, they can start collecting distributions as other pool members contribute.

Agarwal, who studied computer science and economics at Yale before he dropped out to focus on Prospinity, said the company's premise is loosely based on the power law, a principle in venture capital that describes how a small number of investments often create the majority of returns, while the rest either break even or fail.

"As markets get more efficient, you're going to see more and more of these distributions where a few people make it big, and then everyone else tends to be left behind," Agarwal said. "I think success pools are going to be a very important way to hedge against that sort of uncertainty."

The company's founders, Agarwal and Antonyan along with Andrea Zanon and Andrea De Berardinis, belong to a larger success pool that agreed to share 2% of their income over a 10-year horizon.

Prospinity rolls out to more students

Hassaan Qadir, a Yale senior who took a semester off to start a company developing software for biology researchers, joined a Prospinity pool. He later folded the startup and accepted an internship at AppLovin, a Palo Alto company that provides marketing services to mobile app developers. Qadir plans to start another tech company someday and said being part of an income-sharing agreement with other founders gives him more chances of hitting the entrepreneurial jackpot.

Law school students, finance associates, and aspiring entrepreneurs compose his success pool of about 30 members.

"Theoretically, someone that you know is going to become really successful," Qadir said. "It's not totally up to who works the hardest."

Aron Ravin, another member of that same Prospinity pool, hopes to capture some potential upsides of being an entrepreneur as he climbs the corporate ladder. He joined that Prospinity pod during his senior year at Yale and now works as an associate at a prominent hedge fund. Ravin stands to make good money in finance, although he said he may not hit the jackpot as someone starting the next Uber or Palantir might.

Ravin declined to share how much of his income he's contributing to the pool but said it's between 1% and 5%. At a Prospinity mixer in New Haven, Connecticut, he mingled with some international students working on a sustainability venture, which got him thinking.

"It's a little promiscuous of me," Ravin said, "but maybe I'll join another pool in the future. Share the love."

• After a slower-than-anticipated year for healthcare funding, investors expect sunnier skies in 2025.
• 13 VCs from firms like ICONIQ Growth and AlleyCorp share their predictions for digital healthcare next year.
• They expect more M&A, funding for AI agents and clinical decision support, and Medicare shake-ups.

The healthtech sector will see more private-equity-backed M&A and a fierce battle between AI-scribing startups next year, according to thirteen investors in the healthcare VC market.

At the beginning of the year, healthcare venture capital appeared poised for a rebound. Investors hoping to do deals again after a two-year funding drought watched as healthcare startups flooded back to the market to grab more cash.

Those VCs raced to break out their checkbooks for hot new AI startups in the first quarter, from scribing startups like Abridge to automated prior authorization players like Cohere Health.

A confluence of macroeconomic factors — from still-high interest rates to fundraising struggles for venture firms to the uncertainty of a looming presidential election — dampened the anticipated resurgence. 2024's funding appears to be, at best, on pace with 2023 levels, with $8.2 billion raised by US digital health startups in the first three quarters of this year compared to $8.6 billion through Q3 2023, per Rock Health.

Now, with interest rates expected to drop and a new administration on the way, VCs are anticipating sunnier skies in 2025.

A pickup in healthcare M&A and IPOs

After a slow year for healthcare M&A, investors want to see more deals in 2025.

With interest rates expected to come down — and investors facing pressure to deploy capital — private equity buyers should be more active in 2025, said .406 Ventures managing director Liam Donohue.

And Flare Capital Partners' Parth Desai said he's already seeing private-equity-backed healthcare companies looking to buy smaller startups. Their goal, as he understands it, is to make tuck-in acquisitions in 2025 that improve their growth stories as they look ahead to potential IPOs in 2026.

"Maybe they're not phenomenal outcomes, but at the end of the day, they'll create some liquidity," Desai said of those acquisitions. "I expect that to be one of the first exit windows starting to manifest in 2025."

Investors were hopeful but unsure that the IPO window would meaningfully reopen for digital health startups in 2025, despite startups like Hinge Health and Omada Health signaling their intentions to test the public markets.

Venrock partner Bryan Roberts said he expects the healthcare IPO market to remain relatively quiet. LRV Health managing partner Keith Figlioli suggested we won't see IPO activity kick off until the second half of the year after other exit windows open.

VCs said they're mostly looking for smaller deals next year, from mergers of equals to asset sales. Figlioli and Foreground Capital partner Alice Zheng said we'll see even more consolidation and shutdowns in digital health next year as startups run out of cash.

"Investors will have to make tough decisions on their portfolio companies," Zheng said. "We want to support all of them, but we can't indefinitely."

Healthcare AI competition will get fierce

Healthcare startups using AI for administrative tasks were easily the hottest area of healthcare AI investment in 2024. Investors think the crop of well-funded competitors will face increasing pressures next year to expand their product lines.

ICONIQ Growth principal Sruthi Ramaswami said she expects the group of AI scribing startups that landed big funding rounds this year, from Abridge to Ambience Healthcare to Suki, to scale significantly next year using the fresh cash as hospitals scramble for solutions to the healthcare staffing shortage.

As these startups scale, however, they'll face pressure to expand beyond ambient scribing into other product lines, like using AI for medical coding and billing, said Kindred Ventures managing partner Kanyi Maqubela. Scribing technology could become a commodity sooner than later, with many providers trying free off-the-shelf scribing software rather than contracting with startups, Maqubela said.

"It'll be a race to who can start to build other services and build more of an ecosystem for their provider customers," he said.

Some AI startups, like Abridge, have already been vocal about their plans to expand into areas like coding or clinical decision support. The best-funded AI scribing startups may be able to acquire smaller startups to add those capabilities, but other scribing companies will be more likely to get bought out, Maqubela said.

Flare Capital Partners' Desai suggested that healthcare companies already focused on RCM will try to pick up scribing solutions as the tech becomes a must-have for hospitals. He pointed to Commure's $139 million take-private acquisition of Augmedix in July.

Ramaswami said that demonstrating a high return on investment would be critical for these startups as hospitals pick their favorites among various AI pilots.

Health insurance in flux in Trump's second term

While many VCs quietly celebrated the potential for more M&A and IPOs in 2025 following Trump's election in November, the incoming administration could bring some big shake-ups for healthcare markets.

Trump could move to boost private health insurers, including Medicare Advantage plans, in his second term, Venrock's Roberts said. That could be a boon for young insurers like Devoted Health and Alignment Healthcare fighting for Medicare Advantage market share, as well as startups contracting with insurers to improve healthcare payment processes.

He suggested the new administration may even roll back changes made in the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services' latest reimbursement model for Medicare, which went into effect this year and resulted in lower payments for many Medicare Advantage plans in the agency's attempt to improve payment accuracy.

Brenton Fargnoli, a general partner at AlleyCorp, said he expects to see health insurers respond to these risk adjustment changes and move to control higher-than-expected medical costs over the past year by launching a bevy of new value-based care partnerships in 2025 for specialties, including oncology, cardiology, and musculoskeletal care.

Some healthcare experts are also concerned that the federal government could cut funding for Medicaid plans. These changes could force states to scramble for new strategies and potentially new partnerships to control healthcare costs for their Medicaid populations.

"If there is a significant shift in direction at the federal level, I think you're going to see certain states do much more than they have in the past to try to continue to address health disparities," said Jason Robart, cofounder and managing partner of Seae Ventures. "As it happens, that creates opportunities for private companies to leverage their innovative solutions to address the need."

Similarly, Muse Capital founding partner Rachel Springate said that while investors in reproductive health startups will be closely watching state-level regulatory changes that could impact their portfolio companies, those startups could see surges in consumer demand as founders step up to fill gaps in reproductive care access.

Some of the Trump administration's proposed moves could stunt progress for health and biotech startups by stalling regulatory oversight. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's pick to lead Health and Human Services, has said he wants to overhaul federal health agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health. Marissa Moore, a principal at OMERS Ventures, said the promised audits and restructuring efforts could lead to major delays in critical NIH research and FDA approvals of new drugs and medical devices.

What's hot in AI beyond scribes

In 2025, AI will be an expectation in healthcare startup pitches, not an exception, said Erica Murdoch, managing director at Unseen Capital. Startups have pivoted to position AI as a tool for improved efficiency rather than as their focal point — and any digital health startups not using AI, in turn, will need a good reason for it.

With that understanding, investors expect to see plenty more funding for healthcare AI in 2025. While many tools made headlines this year for their ability to automate certain parts of healthcare administration, .406 Ventures' Donohue and OMERS Ventures' Moore said they expect to see an explosion of AI agents in healthcare that can manage these processes autonomously.

Investors remain largely bullish about healthcare AI for administrative tasks over other use cases, but some think startups using the tech for aspects of patient diagnosis and treatment will pick up steam next year.

"We will begin to see a few true clinical decision support use cases come to light, and more pilots will begin to test the augmentation of clinicians and the support they truly need to deliver high quality, safe care," said LRV Health's Figlioli. He hinted the market will see some related funding announcements in early 2025.

Moore said she's also expecting to see more investments for AI-driven mental health services beyond traditional cognitive behavioral therapy models — "for example, just today I got pitched 'the world's first AI hypnotherapist."

Dan Mendelson, the CEO of JPMorgan's healthcare fund Morgan Health, said he's watching care navigation startups from Included Health to Transcarent to Morgan Health's portfolio company Personify that are now working to improve the employee experience with AI. The goal, he says, is for an employee to query the startup's wraparound solution and be directed to the right benefit via its AI, a capability he says he hasn't yet seen deployed at scale.

"These companies are racing to deploy their data and train their models, and we'd love to see a viable product in this area," he said.

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After three years of tense reductions, the skies are clearing over Silicon Valley, and startup investors seem broadly optimistic about a resurgence in tech dealmaking.

We asked venture capitalists at 35 firms like Andreessen Horowitz, Insight Partners, IVP, and Sapphire Ventures, to tell us what's hot and what's not in tech next year, how potential regulatory changes could rouse a sleepy exit market, and where artificial intelligence goes from here.

In 2025, venture capitalists expect a loosening of antitrust regulations under the new presidential administration. This could reignite acquisition activity by strategic buyers, which would allow funds to distribute proceeds from those deals to their own investors, or limited partners, and raise new funds to invest in the next generation of startups, said Brian Garrett, managing director at Crosscut Ventures.

In recent years, startups weren't the only ones facing a cash crunch. Established funds raised the lion's share of funding dollars, while many newish and boutique funds struggled to raise. A torrent of dealmaking, combined with Trump's return to the White House and an end to the political uncertainty, could mobilize investors in these funds who had been sitting on the sidelines to whip out their checkbooks, said Ivan Nikkhoo, a managing partner at Navigate Ventures.

"Uncertainty breeds defense, optimism breeds offense," said Matt Murphy, a partner at Menlo Ventures and early Anthropic investor. "We're going into a cycle where acquirers are feeling they need to play offense and startups feel like it's time to invest in leadership. And the IPO market is open for best-in-class assets."

From IPOs to robotaxis, these are the tech trends to watch in 2025, according to venture capitalists.

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Chip company Nvidia gets the green light from the European Union to complete its acquisition of Run:ai. The EU came to a unanimous decision today that Nvidia could go ahead with its acquisition of Israeli GPU orchestration platform Run:ai, according to reporting from Bloomberg. The European Commission determined that if the merger went through, other […]

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In the first half of 2024 alone, more than $35.5 billion was invested into AI startups globally.

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• Startups like Equatic and Climeworks develop ways to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
• Carbon removal helps businesses meet ESG goals and offset emissions through a carbon credits system.
• This article is part of "Transforming Business," a series on the must-know leaders and trends impacting industries.

Out on a barge in Los Angeles, a team of engineers is hard at work tweaking the designs of a collection of machines with multiple tubes attached to tanks filled with air and different minerals.

The team works for a startup called Equatic, which uses a process called sea electrolysis to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Seawater runs through an electrolyzer, which separates the water into an acid and a base. Rock minerals neutralize the acid, and the base mixes with CO2 from the atmosphere. This results in carbonates that can safely return to the ocean.

Carbon removal technologies, like those developed by Equatic, can transform businesses by helping them reduce their legacy carbon footprint. For many companies with environmental, social, and governance goals, investing in carbon removal through the purchase of carbon credits helps them offset their emissions and get closer to their goal of being "net zero." For rapidly developing industries like artificial intelligence that massively consume energy, implementing carbon removal could help offset emissions in the long term.

The idea of Equatic emerged in the research labs at the University of California, Los Angeles, with a team led by its cofounder Gaurav Sant, a sustainability professor at the school.

Sant said that his team began thinking about how to activate and expand the capacity of oceans, which already naturally absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Processes such as sea electrolysis have been used for decades, though scaling ocean carbon removal technology has started only in the past few years. Sant said his experience as a cement chemist helped him consider ways to reduce carbon emissions.

"There was very little attention that was being paid truthfully to reducing the carbon intensity of cement production and concrete construction," Sant said. "The journey started with low-carbon cement and low-carbon concrete, and from there, it sort of went into a bunch of other things."

For startups that want to break into the industry and market their product's integrity, they must make carbon removal measurable. At the development plant in Los Angeles, Equatic engineers measure the machinery's ability to remove carbon and produce hydrogen. They then quantify carbon removal results. They also publish their findings in peer-reviewed scientific research papers.

Equatic is developing the world's largest ocean-based carbon removal plant in Singapore, a demonstration project in partnership with the country's National Water Agency. The plan for the new plant is to remove 4,000 tons of CO2 annually and create 300 kg of carbon-negative hydrogen a day, according to its website. If these projects succeed, Equatic intends to take its idea to a commercial scale.

For Climeworks, a Zurich carbon removal startup, scaling has taken place gradually over the past fifteen years. The company uses direct air capture technology at its plants to suck CO2 out of the air and then later mineralize it into a solid rock form and store it underground.

"What carbon removal can offer to businesses is making sure that CO2 in the atmosphere, or climate in general, is not a barrier to growth," Jan Wurzbacher, the CEO of Climeworks, said.

The carbon credits market has shortcomings

While these companies plan to scale commercially, startups like Equatic sell carbon credits to businesses and individuals who want to reduce their carbon footprint. Two of Equatic's customers are Boeing and Stripe. Climeworks counts Microsoft, Boston Consulting Group, and Shopify as clients.

The carbon credits market is highly unregulated, dotted with stories of credits sold but followed by incomplete actions and scams. An investigation by The Washington Post found that some carbon credit ventures reaped profits from protected public lands in the Brazilian Amazon forests and failed to share profits with locals. Essentially, these ventures gave the impression that they would reduce emissions but used lands they had no rights to, possibly invalidating the credits they said they would offset for companies such as Netflix, Salesforce, and Boeing.

"Some 'cheaper' carbon credits that you can buy are not easily verifiable," said Indroneil Ganguly, an environmental and forests sciences professor at the University of Washington.

Critics of carbon credits argue that this system allows businesses to continue polluting. Some businesses, such as Occidental Petroleum, invest in carbon removal and use the process to extract more fossil fuels. While telling businesses to cut emissions would be ideal, Wurzbacher said that cutting them entirely or converting to more sustainable practices could be costly and not immediate.

Carbon removal can be expensive

Even at the rapid scaling rate of these carbon removal startups, their emissions removal is only a small drop in the sea. In 2022 alone, the global aviation industry emitted 800 megatons of CO2. In comparison, Climework's first commercial plant in Iceland, called Orca, can remove 4,000 tons a year, the company says. Climeworks said its larger Mammoth plant would be able to remove 36,000 tons.

The biggest hurdle for carbon removal startups like Equatic and Climeworks is cost. A plus side of Equatic's sea electrolysis process is that it creates hydrogen, which can be used as a clean energy source and lower the technology's costs.

"So you push the price down, right, and that's what stimulates the market," Edward Sanders, the CEO of Equatic, said.

What's more, carbon removal is a voluntary purchase and an elastic good, meaning that it depends on the desire of individuals or businesses to participate, and the demand can shift significantly with price.

"The way in which we are going to get the necessary volumes is going to be at a price point they can accept and still manufacture the goods they are making and clear the services they do," Sanders said.

The cost to permanently remove 1 ton of CO2 right now is between $600-$1,000. Scaling up existing technology requires more laborers and building very specific machinery, Wurzbacher said. Both Climeworks and Equatic have received grants from the US Department of Energy, including a grant for Climeworks to subsidize its expansions in Louisiana and Texas.

This year, Climeworks expanded beyond permanent carbon removal and began offering a new solutions branch of its business. If the direct air capture method is too expensive for customers, Climeworks finds a portfolio of other options they can use, such as reforestation and biomass storage.

The incoming Trump administration raises questions about the future of carbon removal and whether companies will be motivated to cut emissions. 

Both Climeworks' and Equatic's respective CEOs said that while timelines and execution could change, these solutions still had bipartisan support and political momentum. Also, carbon removal itself is inherently adaptive.

"The nice thing about direct air capture," Wurzbacher said, "is that you can basically do it anywhere in the world and have your customers at a very different place."

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