• Russia has lost about 3,800 tanks since 2022, compared with about 1,100 for Ukraine, per Oryx estimates.
• In Kursk, Russian tank losses are nearly equal to those of Ukraine, challenging Kyiv's advantage.
• Ukraine's dwindling resources and reliance on Western aid hinder its strategic gains in Kursk.

Russia appears to have lost far more tanks than Ukraine since Moscow's invasion of its neighbor just over three years ago.

Open-source analysts with the Oryx collective estimate that Russia has had about 3,800 tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. The total for Ukraine stands at about 1,100.

The totals include only destroyed vehicles for which photo or videographic evidence is available and may be an underestimate.

Russia is closing the gap in Kursk. In the eight-month battle, launched when Ukrainian forces smashed into the Russian region in August, Ukraine has suffered a higher ratio of tank losses compared to losses on Ukrainian soil.

Russia has lost 66 tanks in Kursk, while Ukraine has lost 55, according to the estimates — a ratio that is not sustainable for Ukraine.

Ukraine's tank fleet is rapidly modernizing with Western-made Leopard 1s, Leopard 2s, and M-1s, while Russia's tank fleet is aging as it relies on decades-old models. Russia boasts a greater ability to sustain and replace tanks compared with Ukraine.

While Russia is fielding older tanks from storage, it still has a vast reserve and can continue producing new ones at a rate that allows it to maintain its fighting capability even while not fully compensating for losses.

The near-even loss ratio in Kursk suggests that Ukraine is struggling to maintain the advantage it needs in a war of attrition.

Ukraine requires a much higher kill ratio to degrade Russia's forces faster than it loses its own, but the battle for Kursk shows that Russia can still inflict similar losses on Ukraine, limiting Kyiv's strategic gains.

A protracted war where Ukraine cannot sustain its advantage plays into Russia's favor, as Ukraine has fewer resources and relies heavily on Western aid.

There are also concerns over Ukraine's ability to get more tanks and other critical hardware from its allies.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said he was pausing all military aid to Ukraine, after a contentious meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. He then backtracked after Ukraine agreed to the terms of a proposed 30-day cease-fire deal with Russia.

Serhiy Rakhmanin, a member of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence, told Business Insider earlier this month that Ukrainian forces operating inside Russia, specifically in Kursk, rely on a significant number of American armored vehicles.

Even so, the ongoing conflict has been far less about tank-on-tank warfare and more about the use of drones, which Ukraine has heavily embraced.

Ukraine is losing its grip on Kursk, which is a key bargaining chip against Russia in any negotiations over pausing or ending the war.

As of this week, the town of Sudzha, about five miles from Ukraine's border, remains Kyiv's last significant stronghold in the Russian region.

By preventing Ukraine from achieving a decisive breakthrough in Kursk, Putin can frame the battle as a strategic success.

• Ukraine is on the verge of losing its final town in Kursk, the Russian region it invaded in August.
• Moscow has pushed hard into Kursk in recent weeks, and Putin just visited the region himself.
• Kyiv's loss of its northern pocket comes as the US seeks to get Russia to accept a temporary cease-fire.

Eight months after launching its surprise attack on Russian soil, Ukraine's foothold in Kursk appears to be on its last legs.

As of Wednesday, the town of Sudzha — about five miles from Ukraine's border — remains Kyiv's final significant position in the Russian region.

Ukrainian officials have been painting a bleak picture of its defense.

Roman Kostenko, the secretary of the defense committee in Ukraine's parliament, told local reporters in a Wednesday briefing that Russian troops have entered the town and are trying to cut off Ukrainian supply lines.

"There is information that the Russians have entered a certain part. Fighting continues. The Russians control a certain area there, which is across the river," Kostenko said.

Still, he added that he hadn't received word of a full withdrawal, a decision that Kyiv has also not confirmed.

But the language used by Ukraine's top officials indicates that at least a partial pullback is already underway.

Ukraine's chief commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Wednesday evening that he had ordered Ukrainian troops to move to "more advantageous lines" if necessary.

Sudzha has been "almost completely destroyed" by Russian air strikes, Syrski added.

Both he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have said Kyiv's priority in Kursk now is to "preserve the lives" of Ukrainian troops.

"The Russians are applying maximum pressure on our soldiers," Zelenskyy told reporters on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers have been posting footage of the fighting in Sudzha, appearing to show Moscow's advance reaching the town's administrative buildings.

The Kremlin's push comes as Russian leader Vladimir Putin visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine breached the region.

Dressed in military fatigues, he told his troops on Wednesday to clear out the remnants of Ukraine's troops in Kursk, according to state media.

With Ukraine's position in Kursk now dire, it's ousted Dmytro Krasylnykov, the commander of its northern operations.

National broadcaster Suspilne reported that Krasylnikov said an order for his replacement was signed on March 7. Oleksiy Shandar, who was deputy commander of Ukraine's airborne assault forces, is set to take over.

An advantage held for months, now on the verge of collapse

Ukraine launched its surprise Kursk offensive in early August, widely interpreted as a bold effort to both draw Russian resources away from the hard-hit eastern front and to create a bargaining chip for cease-fire negotiations.

Within days, Kyiv's forces seized some 500 square miles of Russian territory and threatened to encroach upon Kursk city itself.

But Moscow's troops rushed to contain the advance, eventually cutting down Ukraine's pocket there to just the land around Sudzha.

If the Kremlin fully retakes Kursk, it would come as President Donald Trump's administration tries to get Russia to accept a temporary cease-fire, which Ukraine has already agreed to.

"We'll take this offer now to the Russians, and we hope that they'll say yes, that they'll say yes to peace," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday. "The ball is now in their court."

Earlier this month, tensions with Washington also prompted the US to roll back some of its intel and weapons support for Ukraine. Shortly after the decision was made, officials in Kyiv told Business Insider's Jake Epstein that the loss of intel hampered Ukraine's ability to defend against Russian missile attacks.

The Washington Post also reported that the move had prevented Ukraine from precisely targeting Russian positions with advanced American artillery systems.

After Kyiv accepted the cease-fire terms, the US said on Monday that it had resumed sharing intel with Ukraine.

• Ukrainian forces launched a stunning invasion into Russia's Kursk region last August.
• A Ukrainian commander revealed new details of the operation in an interview with BI.
• He said his forces didn't know they were going to cross into Russia until the day before.

Ukrainian forces who took part in last year's shock invasion of Russia had no idea they were about to launch a cross-border assault until the day before the mission, a commander told Business Insider.

Oleksii Vovkotrub was the commander of the 1st Platoon, part of the 1st Assault Company of the 33rd Separate Assault Regiment, when his unit entered Russia's Kursk region on August 6. He revealed new details of the operation in a recent interview with BI.

The daring invasion, which came as a surprise to Ukraine's partners and caught Moscow completely off guard, marked the biggest attack on Russian soil by a foreign enemy since World War II.

Vovkotrub, whose call sign is Wolf, said that the operation was classified. Ukraine's forces had been gathering in the northeastern Sumy region, which borders Russia, but they didn't know the final objective of their build-up at the time. Up to that point, the war had been fought almost entirely in Ukraine, a few cross-border raids aside.

"The details of the mission were only revealed to us the day before deployment," Vovkotrub, now the acting commander of the 1st Assault Company of the 33rd Separate Assault Regiment, recalled. "Of course, the guys were a bit nervous, but overall, the mood was high," he said. "We were eager to strike the enemy on their own territory."

Vovkotrub said that his mission in Kursk was to seize and hold a platoon strongpoint until infantry soldiers arrived to secure the position. His unit advanced into Russia as part of an armored formation supported by German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

"Riding in on armor felt good," Vovkotrub said. "I won't hide that, especially after everything they did on our land." By this stage of the war, the Ukrainians had been fighting Russia's invasion of their country for about two and a half years.

Ukrainian soldiers have said that they were able to easily breach Russia's borders, meeting little to no resistance until they reached the outskirts of Sudzha.

It wasn't until the second morning of the invasion into Kursk that the platoon first engaged in combat, trying to capture the objective strongpoint. The Ukrainians clashed with Russian soldiers while clearing two villages in the Sudzha district, just a few miles across the border, and fighting to secure enemy positions in the tree lines.

"In the end, the mission was successfully completed without any losses on our side," Vovkotrub said. His unit stayed in Kursk until late August, though they would deploy again later.

Ukrainian forces quickly seized some 500 square miles of territory in Kursk and captured dozens of villages during the early weeks of the invasion, which was intended to ease some pressure off other areas of the front lines and provide Kyiv with more leverage at potential peace talks.

Russian counteroffensives in the months since have seen the country regain roughly half of the land that it initially lost in Kursk, but Ukraine still has a foothold in the region. It is proving difficult for the Russians to dislodge them completely.

Moscow has relied on the deployment of thousands of North Korean forces to help with these efforts, but they have been taking heavy losses in combat. Ukraine's military revealed recently that the North Koreans hadn't been seen in weeks, suggesting they may have withdrawn.

Hard fighting continues in this sector. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, said Monday that the Kursk operation remains a key priority for Kyiv.

• Ukraine took a huge risk attacking into Russia and taking territory last year.
• It has had positives and negatives for both countries.
• But if it still holds enough of the territory as Trump pushes for negotiations it could pay off.

Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if for no other reason than the timing.

Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian region of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The move into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of which had been static for months.

But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts have said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as the upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved pressure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a lot of what they captured.

Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right now, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through negotiations.

Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefire negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former commander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, told Business Insider.

New talk of negotiations

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could lead to bargaining."

And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war through negotiations.

Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This week, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingness to enter talks.

Zelenskyy said in November the parts of Ukraine still under its own control could be taken "under the NATO umbrella" as part of an agreement that still holds Ukraine's borders as its internationally recognized borders. He said Ukraine could then negotiate the return of its own territory that was still under Russian control "in a diplomatic way."

De Bretton-Gordon said Zelenskyy's comments reinforce that "Kursk is absolutely key."

A "victory plan" Zelenskyy unveiled in October also called for the continuation of Ukraine's work in Kursk, hinting at its value. De Bretton-Gordon said it shows Zelenskyy may be seeing Kursk as "a key bargaining chip."

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that given Trump is "almost certain" to push negotiations, "it's good to have this bargaining chip." Plus, he said, negotiations are likely to take place sooner than they would have under a Kamala Harris presidency, making it more likely that Ukraine could hold on to a significant chunk of Kursk.

"It could work out well" for Ukraine, he said.

Kursk holds significance for the Russians, as it was a key battle and turning point in World War II. Holding Kursk gives Ukraine, which has often been on its back foot, something it can use in negotations.

Russia may want to fight over Kursk

There's no guarantee it gets to negotiations, though. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson said last month that Russia sees "no grounds for negotiations yet." Putin has signaled that he doesn't want to slow down and take his foot off the gas.

George Barros, a conflict expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI Kursk "certainly can" play a role in negotiations, but he suspects that Russian President Vladimir Putin would rather fight rather than negotiate for Kursk.

Negotiating over his own territory would be a "massive humiliation for Putin," he said.

Russia hasn't pushed as hard as it could in Kursk. Barros said "it's quite clear to me that Kursk has not been a primary objective." Were that to change, it could have significant effects.

There are limits to what Russia can do. Focusing on Kursk could mean taking more troops out of Ukraine — something Ukraine wants as it takes the pressure off its forces. That might open the door for Ukraine to take back more of its own territory. It's hard to know.

Negotiations might still be a long way off

If there are negotiations, they may not be immediate, and Ukraine will need to be holding a good-sized chunk to use Kursk as a bargaining chip.

Ukraine has lost much of what it held, though warfare experts said it likely gave some of that up willingly to strategically defend other parts. Some experts are still bullish about what Ukraine is holding. De Bretton-Gordon, for instance, said "Ukraine's still holding a significant amount."

And Ukraine also executed a new offensive push in Kursk this month. The move was "likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage," Can Kasapoğlu, a political-military expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote recently.

But for the gamble to pay off for Ukraine in terms of timing, Ukraine still needs to be holding ground if negotiations turn real — something Trump advisors said could take months more. That could be a tall order, but with the possibility of talks being openly discussed, that makes Kursk even more important.

• All of North Korea's troops in Kursk could get wiped out by April, given current losses, a think tank said.
• Analysts cited casualty reports from Ukraine and South Korea, estimating 92 losses per day for Pyongyang.
• Still, the estimated 12,000 troops sent by North Korea are a small fraction of its total military strength.

If North Korea's current casualty rate holds, it would take three more months for Pyongyang to lose all of its estimated 12,000 troops deployed to fight Ukraine, per an estimate by researchers from the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts at the Washington-based think tank cited casualty reports from Ukraine and South Korea, as well as Russian military bloggers who said that North Korean troops were actively participating in significant combat in December.

"North Korean have therefore likely suffered roughly 92 casualties per day since starting to participate in significant fighting in early December 2024," they wrote in an assessment published on Thursday.

The think tank said that "the entirety of this North Korean contingent in Kursk Oblast may be killed or wounded in roughly 12 weeks (about mid-April 2025) should North Korean forces continue to suffer similarly high casualty rates in the future."

The analysts wrote that Pyongyang's losses will likely involve more wounded troops than those killed in action, which they said is "typical or armed conflict."

"And it is unclear if or when injured North Korean soldiers return to combat," the think tank's assessment said.

A South Korean lawmaker, Lee Sung-kwon, said on Monday that Seoul's intelligence service estimated that about 300 North Korean soldiers had been killed in action in Kursk, with another 2,700 wounded.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in early January that North Korean losses in Kursk had reached up to 3,800 wounded or killed.

"12,000 has arrived. Today, 3,800 killed or wounded," he told podcaster Lex Fridman.

The US also gave its estimate for North Korean casualties in December, saying that Pyongyang likely suffered 1,000 killed or wounded in its first week of engaging in significant combat.

"We now assess that North Korean forces are conducting massed — massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on December 27.

Russia's defense ministry press team did not respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

Western and South Korean intelligence officials have said that the roughly 12,000 North Korean troops deployed in Kursk are likely from the Storm Corps.

The elite branch of soldiers is considered North Korea's version of special forces, and estimates have varied as to how many are fielded by Pyongyang. One of the highest counts, by South Korea's Defense Ministry in 2022, put the Storm Corps at up to 200,000 strong.

Questions remain as to whether Kim Jong Un may send more troops to Russia's aid if manpower on the frontline runs dry. Quantity has been vital for both Ukraine and Russia — from troops to artillery to ammo — as the war looks to drag into its fourth year.

North Korea has an estimated 1.2 million soldiers in its armed forces, though they have barely any combat experience. Pyongyang is known to instead often rely on its troops for building infrastructure projects.

Still, Zelenskyy warned in early January of the possibility that North Korea could send up to half a million troops to aid Russia. But Pyongyang isn't giving its troops away for free — Kim is receiving food, technological expertise, and economic assistance from Russia in exchange.

Ukraine and South Korea reported in November that Russia was also paying Kim a stipend for each North Korean soldier deployed in Kursk. Seoul's intelligence said at the time that the cost was about $2,000 per man.

• Ukraine launched a risky attack on Russia last year, seizing swathes of territory in Kursk.
• Ukraine was able to go on offense and seize the initiative, but the impact hasn't been felt at home.
• Warfare experts said the move was likely worthwhile, but it remains to be seen if that holds true.

Ukraine's ambitious advance into Russia's Kursk region last summer was a tremendous risk.

Whether the gamble was ultimately worth it is something that military historians are likely to long debate. For Ukraine, there have been some signs it could double down with a new offensive.

There have been costs, but the Kursk assault offered the Ukrainians a chance to break from the slow, brutal, and grinding defensive situation at home and go on offense, as well as divert Russian resources. And there is still the possibility this helps Kyiv in potential peace talks.

"It's hard to say until everything plays out, but I would still say it was a good move," Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of Ukraine's actions in Kursk in recent months.

Ukraine's Kursk operation was a chance to change the status quo

Ukraine's Kursk operation was a surprise to war watchers, Ukraine's international partners, the Russian soldiers defending the country's borders, and even many of Kyiv's own troops.

Ukraine said that it was trying to create a buffer zone, strain Russian combat resources, and secure land and prisoners for negotiations with Moscow.

Ukraine was also likely aiming to boost the morale of its tired forces, as well as signal strength to Western nations that may have been growing weary of providing support.

The advance also gave it a shot at seizing the initiative and taking the fight onto Russian soil. Seizing the initiative has long been understood to be key to winning wars.

Without it, like in chess, "you're constantly on the defensive, your adversary boxing you into a corner," George Barros, a warfare expert at the Institute for the Study of War, said.

There's a risk of sooner or later being left with "a series of bad decisions that you'd rather not make," he said. Letting your adversary hold the initiative in a war is "how you end up losing."

Ukraine also proved it had more cards to play in this war.

Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, highlighted Ukraine's use of drones and effective Ukrainian employment of armored maneuver warfare.

But those maneuvers were costly.

Reported tank losses suggest fighting in Kursk "has chewed up a fairly large portion" of Ukrainian armor assets from Western partner nations, said Matthew Savill, a former intelligence analyst at the UK Ministry of Defence who is now a military-strategy expert at the Royal United Services Institute.

That limits Ukraine's flexibility and the ability to surge forces elsewhere.

There's no guarantee, though, Ukraine would have been able to effectively employ the tanks back on its own soil, where the intense fighting and dense drone coverage have limited their use. Michael Bohnert, a warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, said that taking the tanks to Kursk may have been the most optimal way to use them.

The Ukrainian army was trying to relieve pressure on the front

Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial response was slow, and he didn't turn to the military for a fix, instead relying on a mix of other security groups. As Russia eventually stepped up its efforts to dislodge the assaulting Ukrainian troops, thousands of North Korean troops arrived to fight for Russia.

Russia's delayed, and irregular, reaction meant Ukraine could seize more territory and prepare better defenses, but it also meant that hopes of drawing a significant number of Russian troops away from the Ukrainian front lines were not fully realized.

Russia did not have to dramatically soften its efforts in Ukraine in response to Kursk, and its army has been grinding forward, advancing throughout the fall.

And Ukraine had to pull troops from the front lines at home for Kursk, potentially complicating its own defense. It remains unclear whether it was better for Ukraine to move its forces into Kursk or defend the lines at home.

But there were some good effects for Ukraine on its own soil.

"Ukrainian moves "fundamentally disrupted the Russian combat plans," Barros said, "because the forces and the plans that presuppose their availability were then consumed and taken by the newly imposed requirement for defending Kursk and repelling the Ukrainians from Kursk."

The head of Ukraine's armed forces said in December he had "no choice" but to assault Kursk, arguing he needed to reduce pressure on the fronts in Ukraine and stop Russia from opening a new front in Ukraine's Sumy region.

He said that it reduced the intensity of Russia's attacks across Ukraine, except at Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, areas where the Russians are advancing.

It's been a tough fight for Ukraine to hold ground inside Russia

Much less information is coming out of Kursk than from the fighting inside Ukraine, but Russia's losses have soared since August, per UK intelligence citing the Ukrainian military. Ukraine says that Russia has lost over 38,000 troops and more than 1,000 pieces of equipment in Kursk.

Bohnert said Kursk had been "very costly from the Russian perspective." He said that the losses Russia appears to be accepting there are surprising.

But Russia has been increasingly demonstrating it's willing to tolerate high losses, grinding away at Ukraine with its larger army in a war of attrition.

Ukraine, at the peak of the incursion into Russia, held about 500 square miles of territory in Kursk. But Russia appears to have taken back around half of that, and it's not clear what Ukraine's latest actions there may achieve.

Warfare experts told BI that the Ukrainians may have given up at least some of that willingly, less chained to holding every inch of territory than in their own country. De Bretton-Gordon said Ukraine still holds significant territory, which could prove helpful for the country if the war's end depends on negotiations — something for which president-elect Donald Trump has pushed.

"Whoever holds Kursk probably come the new year is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefire negotiations," said de Bretton-Gordon, adding that he largely views Ukraine's decision to advance into Russia's Kurks to be a "positive."

Beyond serving as a bargaining chip, Kursk also helped to dispel the idea the war was hopelessly stalemated. It also showed that surprise and big gains were possible for Ukraine.

"If enough Western officials and politicians believe that it's hopelessly stalemated, it can't change, then their appetite to continue supporting Ukraine will be destroyed over time. That is the Russian strategy in its entirety," Barros said.

Though some Western nations eventually gave Kyiv new permissions to use their weapons to strike into Russia, supporting Ukrainian operations, Kursk did not result in a huge boost in aid from Ukraine's partners, and it's unclear if it had any significant effects on their long-term thinking.

The push into Russia was a shocking moment and a morale booster, but it hasn't yielded the results Kyiv had hoped for and might not.

Assessing Ukraine's gamble in Kursk

So was Ukraine's Kursk operation worth it? That question's still up for debate.

Based on Ukraine's knowledge at the time of the attack, and what has happened since, Cancian said he would say, "Yes, it was the right thing to do."

Barros said that without Kursk, "you would have the Russians leaning into this attritional style of warfare where they get to keep conducting attacks." And Ukraine would have been leaning into the way Russia wanted to fight.

Savill said that he was "wary of criticizing it from a thousand miles away when they're fighting the existential fight and I'm not."

"The choice to do it was bold," he said. "It did put the Russians on the back foot temporarily. It did show something about what well-resourced Ukrainian forces could do if they identified a weak point." But he also said the decision to hold on to so much of Kursk after that first big advance "might turn out to have been the mistake."

Barros said the question of Kursk being worth it is a "complex question," as "we're looking at a live patient." But ultimately, he said, "it's a good thing that the Ukrainians sought to contest the initiative and impose problems on the Russians."

• 3,800 North Koreans have been killed or wounded fighting alongside Russia, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
• But Ukraine's president told the Lex Fridman podcast that hundreds of thousands more could arrive.
• The estimate came amid a discussion of the danger to Europe if the US leaves NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a podcast interview released Sunday that 3,800 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded in Russia's Kursk region to date.

Zelenskyy's figure suggests that a third of the North Korean troops brought over to fight alongside Russia have been taken out of action.

"12,000 has arrived. Today, 3,800 killed or wounded," he told podcaster Lex Fridman, but he cautioned that North Korea could send many more, giving a figure as high as half a million troops.

Estimates of North Korean casualties have varied since intelligence agencies reported in October that it was sending troops to help Russian President Vladimir Putin defend territory seized by Ukraine in the summer.

In late December, the White House estimated that more than 1,000 North Koreans had been killed or wounded in the space of a single week, amid mass dismounted attacks.

And in his nightly address on Saturday, Zelenskyy said that the Russian army had lost "up to a battalion of infantry, including North Korean soldiers and Russian paratroopers," in fighting in the village of Makhnovka in Kursk.

Concerns for Europe

Zelenskyy offered the latest casualty figures as part of a broader argument about the dangers to Europe if the US retreats from NATO.

President-elect Donald Trump has long been critical of NATO and the defense spending of some of its members, leading to concerns that he could slash support for the alliance or even walk away.

Zelenskyy said that if Trump decides to leave NATO once back in office, "Putin will destroy Europe."

He also argued that European countries are much less willing and able to raise massive armies compared to an autocracy like North Korea.

While Ukraine has around 980,000 military personnel, the militaries of its European allies are a fraction of the size, Zelenskyy said.

"Can Europe bring people together? No," he said. "Will Europe be able to build an army consisting of two to three million people? No, Europe will not want to do this."

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America in November that the number of North Korean troops aiding Russia could soon reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months.

That could mean about 100,000 North Korean soldiers serving in Russia within a year, he added.

• Ukraine's new attack in Kursk is featuring some impressive drone jamming, Russian military bloggers said.
• The bloggers reported that Ukrainian forces were able to break through because of "powerful electronic warfare."
• it's made it difficult for Russian drone operators to work in the area, they wrote.

Ukraine launched a renewed offensive in Russia's Kursk region on Sunday, where Russian pro-war bloggers say Kyiv's drone jammers have been working exceptionally well.

The "Operation Z" channel, a collection of dispatches from Russian war correspondents, wrote that the attack had focused on the Bolshesoldatsky district, to the northeast of the Ukrainian-held pocket in Kursk.

"In order to break through, the Ukrainian Armed Forces covered the area with powerful electronic warfare systems, making it difficult for our UAVs to operate," wrote the Telegram channel, which has over 1.6 million subscribers.

Razvedos Advanced Gear & Equipment, a Russian military news Telegram channel with over 152,000 subscribers, echoed those comments in a post on Sunday.

"It cannot be said that they were not expected in this direction, but they managed to VERY effectively use electronic warfare," it wrote of the fighting in Bolshesoldatsky.

Roman Alekhine, a military blogger with about 218,000 subscribers, wrote on his channel: "The enemy has covered the attack area with electronic warfare, so many drones are useless."

Alekhine later posted that some Russian drone operators were still able to switch to unjammed frequencies.

Sergei Kolyasnikov, another military blogger with about 498,000 subscribers, reported that about 10 Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles had entered the Bolshesoldatsky region.

"The area is covered with some powerful electronic warfare, nothing is flying at all," he wrote.

The specifics of Ukraine's new push this week into Russian territory are still unclear. Kyiv initially launched a surprise counteroffensive into Kursk in August, where it took an estimated 480 square miles of Russian land but has been slowly pushed back since.

Ukraine has stayed mostly silent on the matter. But Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation run by Ukraine's national security and defense council, alluded to an assault on Sunday by posting that Russian troops in Kursk "were attacked from several directions and it came as a surprise to them."

Andriy Yermak, chief of staff for Ukraine's president, also hinted at an attack by writing on his Telegram channel that Russia was "getting what it deserves" in Kursk.

Meanwhile, Russia has outright declared that Ukraine had attacked again.

"On January 5, at about 09:00 Moscow time, in order to stop the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack with an assault group consisting of two tanks, a barrier vehicle, and 12 combat armored vehicles with troops in the direction of the Berdin farm," its defense ministry told state media.

As reports of Ukraine's jamming efforts emerged, the defense ministry published a video of a Russian drone operator coordinating a tank strike on an unknown target in a forested area, saying he was working in Kursk.

The Ukrainian and Russian Defense Ministries did not respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.

Electronic warfare has increasingly been key on the battlefield as both Russia and Ukraine turn to cheap drones for reconnaissance, loitering munitions, and close-range bombing runs.

One development has seen both sides deploy wired drones. These use long fiber optic cables unfurled from a spool as the aerial system takes flight, allowing it to bypass jamming systems.

Should they become mainstream, they may pose yet another challenge for militaries that are already spending big on preparing against drone threats. The US, for example, is paying some $250 million to Anduril, Palmer Luckey's defense startup, for 500 drones and an electronic warfare system called Pulsar.

• Ukrainian forces appear to have launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk region.
• Russia's Ministry of Defense said Ukraine had launched a "counterattack" at around 9 a.m. local time.
• A Ukrainian official said Russia was "getting what it deserves."

Ukrainian forces appear to have launched a new offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk.

Russia's Ministry of Defense said in a post on Telegram that Ukraine had launched a "counterattack" at around 9 a.m. local time.

"In order to halt the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk direction, the enemy launched a counterattack by an assault group consisting of two tanks, a demolition vehicle, and twelve armored combat vehicles," it said.

In a short post on Telegram, Andrii Yermak, the head of Ukraine's presidential office, said: "Kursk, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves."

The scale of the reported offensive is unclear. Ukraine launched an initial incursion into Kursk in August.

Rybar, a Russian war blog with more than 1.3 million subscribers, said that the latest operation could serve as a diversion. The US government has offered up to $10 million for information on Rybar, saying it had attempted "to bolster Russia's military capabilities and advance pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives."

"The intensification of the situation in the Kursk region may be a diversionary maneuver for a simultaneous offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in other areas," read a post on Rybar's account.

"The Ukrainian command has been hatching plans for several months to break through the defense of the Russian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhzhia region and is probing for weak spots," it added.

It comes at a potentially pivotal moment for Kyiv as it gears up for the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.

Both Russia and Ukraine are racing to place their respective sides in the best possible position ahead of Trump's return.

Trump has pledged to bring the war in Ukraine to a swift end but has not detailed how he intends to do so.

Analysts say one possibility is a negotiated cease-fire deal with frozen front lines.

In a post on Truth Social in December, Trump called for an immediate cease-fire and the start of negotiations.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," he wrote, adding: "It can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act."

• More than 100 elite North Korean troops were killed in their first battles in Russia, per South Korean intel.
• About 1,000 more were wounded in the fighting, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said.
• The troops are ill-prepared for drone attacks and the local terrain, the agency added.

More than 100 of North Korea's best "Storm" troops have been killed and 1,000 more injured fighting alongside Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, South Korean intelligence said.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers on Thursday that the troops' losses came in their first battles for Russia, The New York Times reported.

Lee Seong-kweun, a South Korean lawmaker, also told reporters that a general-ranking officer could be among the dead, the report said.

North Korean troops arrived in Russia in October. Ukraine said the following month that it attacked North Korean forces for the first time.

Since then, North Korean troop losses have mounted. On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that based on preliminary estimates, over 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded in Russia's Kursk region.

North Korean troops are primarily fighting in that region, where Ukraine launched an offensive in August.

North Korea's Storm Corps are among the most well-trained in Pyongyang's military, as well as the most indoctrinated, the Times reported.

Despite that elite status, they were still not ready for the fight in Ukraine, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said.

The agency told lawmakers that they were poorly prepared for drone attacks and the local terrain.

It's not the first time reports have suggested North Korea's forces are ill-prepared for the war.

The BBC reported that the Storm troops get more advanced training than other soldiers, but they're still underfed and some appear malnourished.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers have also said that North Korean troops have been killed by drones that they did not realize were dangerous.

Ukrainian intelligence previously reported that North Korean troops accidentally killed eight Russian soldiers in Kursk, describing it as a "friendly fire" incident caused by a language barrier.

South Korea's National Intelligence Service told lawmakers that North Korean troops were sent to Russia so quickly that Moscow could not properly integrate them into the military. They only learned a few military phrases in Russian, such as "open fire," "artillery," and "in position," before being sent to battle.

But warfare experts warn that the troops' potential impact should not be dismissed, especially given that Russia's tactics have been to use poorly trained soldiers to overwhelm Ukraine.

For its part, Ukraine is reportedly trying to get North Korean troops to surrender, making videos and dropping leaflets on troops in a bid to get them to desert. It has also warned that Russia will treat North Korean troops like disposable cannon fodder, as it appears to have done with many of its own troops.

However, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said that North Korea appeared to be preparing to put more troops in Russia, the Times reported.

Zelenskyy also predicted that North Korean soldiers would be sent to the front lines in Ukraine at some point.

• North Korean troops don't realize drones are dangerous and are sitting ducks, Ukraine troops said.
• They have engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk, per US and Ukraine officials.
• A couple hundred were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a US official said.

Ukrainian officials and soldiers told The Washington Post that North Korea's troops are frequently getting killed by drones they don't seem to consider dangerous.

The accounts point to an apparent gap in the knowledge of the troops sent by Kim Jong Un to support Russia's invasion.

The prevalence and effectiveness of drones is a defining feature of the war in Ukraine, and experienced soldiers there have described to Business Insider a widespread fear of them.

But North Korea's troops are new to the war, separated by a language barrier, and appear not to have the same approach.

Three Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region of Russia told the Post that waves of what seemed to be North Korean forces advanced directly at Ukrainian positions defended by drones and other weapons.

"We were very surprised; we had never seen anything like it — 40 to 50 people running across a field," one drone commander told the Post.

"FPV drones, artillery, and other weapons struck them because they were moving in the open field," he said. "You can imagine the result."

Another drone operator, Artem, told the outlet that instead of running away from the drones, the North Korean troops shot at them "indiscriminately," while others just kept moving. Many were killed, he said.

During a nighttime drone operation, Artem said he recognized three soldiers based on their heat signatures on a thermal camera and anticipated killing only one — but when the other two failed to react fast enough, he and his comrades struck all three.

He described the experience as "bizarre," adding, "It was the first time it felt like playing a computer simulator on easy mode."

On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said North Korean troops had moved to the front lines and were "actively engaged in combat operations."

During a press briefing that same day, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said they had indications that North Korean soldiers engaged in combat in Kursk had suffered losses.

At least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded during assault operations near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martynovka in or near the Kursk region last weekend, Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) said on Monday.

A couple hundred North Korean troops were killed or wounded in combat in the Kursk region, a senior military official told the Associated Press on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the GUR said North Korean troops had set up extra observation posts, fearing Ukrainian drone attacks after suffering serious losses.

• Ukraine said that North Korean troops had accidentally killed 8 Russian soldiers in Kursk.
• Ukrainian intelligence said it was a "friendly fire" incident caused by a language barrier.
• Experts previously told BI that language issues would pose a challenge for the military alliance.

Eight Russian soldiers were killed by North Korean forces in a recent "friendly fire" incident in Kursk, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

North Korean soldiers opened fire on Russian military vehicles, Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said on Saturday, attributing it to a language barrier between the two forces.

It didn't say when the incident took place, but added that language barriers continue to be a "difficult obstacle" for Russian and North Korean personnel, per The Kyiv Independent's translation.

Business Insider could not independently verify the report.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US have said.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months. He said a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers could serve in Russia within a year.

Experts on the relationship between the two states have previously said that the language difference between North Korean and Russian soldiers would be a key logistical issue.

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert in North Korean defense at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, told BI that though the two countries have historical ties, they rarely learn each other's language.

"To conduct combat operations with an allied force that doesn't speak your language presents real problems," he said.

North Korean soldiers have been sent to aid Russian forces in Kursk, an area of Russia that was partially occupied by Ukraine in August.

The North Korean soldiers are reported to have been scattered across various Russian units and had already come under Ukrainian fire as of early November.

Audio intercepted by Defense Intelligence of Ukraine in October suggested a chaotic start to the Russia-North Korea partnership, not least because of language difficulties.

In the intercepted audio, a Russian soldier complained about leaders having "no fucking clue" what to do with the new troops and remarked that they had been allocated one interpreter per 30 soldiers.

The soldiers reportedly killed in the friendly fire incident were from the Ahmat battalion, Ukrainian intelligence said — a group under the control of Chechen warlord and Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov.

"Kadyorovites," as they are known, have been fighting in Kursk since August, according to reports.

Ukraine initially seized a large swathe of Kursk in its surprise cross-border raid — around 500 square miles — but Russian forces have retaken about 40% of that land, a senior Ukrainian military source told Reuters in late November.

• Ukraine is making videos and dropping leaflets on North Korean troops to get them to surrender.
• North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, per sources.
• "Many see it as a chance to escape the regime," the project's spokesman told Euronews.

Ukraine is trying to persuade North Korean soldiers to surrender rather than fight alongside Russia.

Ukrainian intelligence services have been distributing leaflets via drones and projectiles, and making videos urging North Korean troops to desert, according to Euronews.

Vitality Matvienko, spokesperson for the "I Want to Live" project, told Euronews that "of course, not everyone wants to fight."

"We know very well the living conditions in North Korea," he said. "Therefore, many see it as a chance to escape the regime and go to another country."

Ukraine is carrying out its efforts under "I Want to Live," a service that has facilitated Russian soldiers' surrender. In October 2022, Russia blocked access to its hotline and chatbot, though it is still accessible in the country via VPN.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months, with a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers serving in Russia within a year.

Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project told Business Insider the leaflets state that Kim Il Sung — North Korea's founder — does not want North Korean soldiers to fight for Russian "imperialists."

The leaflets also contain step-by-step instructions on how to surrender, with guarantees and benefits for those prisoners of war, it said.

It declined to disclose other methods being used to convince North Korean troops to surrender.

"I Want to Live" posted a video on its Telegram channel earlier this month showing a North Korean volunteer in the Ukrainian armed forces calling on his countrymen to take their chance.

"We will not just welcome you but help you start a new life," he said. "Support, work, and the opportunity to live a decent life are waiting for you here. Even money, so you can start your way with a clean slate."

The text accompanying the video said Ukraine guaranteed all prisoners humane treatment. "Far away from 'Big Brother,' who watches over all the inhabitants of North Korea, it is a sin not to take advantage of this unique opportunity," it said.

In October, Ukraine's military intelligence agency put out a statement with the promise of providing comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korean soldiers who surrendered.

It also published a Korean-language video showcasing its prisoner-of-war camps, as well as the meals served there.

Last month, South Korean intelligence estimated that Russia was paying about $2,000 a month for each soldier.

But Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, told BI that he suspects the money is going directly to North Korea's ruling elite.

"Perhaps only a small amount or even nothing" will go to the soldiers themselves, he said.