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Trump's team appears annoyed with Ukraine for some of its recent attacks

President -elect Donald Trump gestures as he speaks, in front of two American flags, during a press conference at Mar-A-Lago on December 16, 2024.
President-elect Donald Trump at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago on December 16, 2024.

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

  • Trump and his team have signaled opposition to some of Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian soil.
  • Trump's Ukraine envoy said this week that the killing of a Russian general was outside the rules of war.
  • Trump has also criticized Biden's decision to allow strikes on Russia using US-supplied missiles.

In a worrying sign for Ukraine, the incoming Trump administration has signaled its disapproval of recent attacks on Russian soil, including long-range strikes and the assassination of a top general in Moscow using a scooter bomb.

President-elect Donald Trump's envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, said on Wednesday that Ukraine's claimed killing of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov this week was contrary to the rules of war.

Kirillov, who headed up Russia's chemical, nuclear, and biological protection troops, was killed by a bomb planted on a scooter in Moscow on Tuesday. Ukraine has claimed responsibility.

Speaking on Fox Business, Kellogg said, "There are rules of warfare and there are certain things you just kind of don't do."

He added: "When you're killing flag officers, general officers, admirals or generals in their hometown, it's kind of like you've extended it, and I don't think it's really smart to do it."

Russia said it had arrested a man in connection with the killing, saying he was suspected of a "terrorist attack," the BBC reported.

Kellogg said the events wouldn't be a setback for any peace talks.

The US State Department said it was unaware of the plot, with an unnamed official saying the US doesn't support this kind of action, according to Agence France-Presse.

Kellogg's remarks come after President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that the decision to allow Ukraine to make long-range strikes on Russia with US-supplied missiles was "stupid," and that he might reverse it once in office.

"I don't think they should have allowed missiles to be shot 200 miles into Russia," he said. "I think that was a bad thing."

Trump claimed that the decision prompted North Korea to send troops to fight alongside Russia, though intelligence agencies said that North Korean troops were being deployed at least two weeks before the Biden administration's decision.

He also said that the Biden administration should have asked for his opinion "weeks before I take over."

"Why would they do that without asking me what I thought?" he added.

Trump has repeatedly stated he would end the war in Ukraine, without publicly saying how he would achieve it.

Plans under discussion have included establishing a demilitarized zone in the areas occupied by Russia and requiring a pledge from Ukraine not to join NATO, The Wall Street Journal reported in November.

In an interview with Le Parisien on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his stance that ceding territory to Russia in any talks would be unacceptable, along with any promise not to join NATO.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Gazprom shares hit their lowest price in 15 years, capping a disastrous year for a linchpin of Russia's economy

The logo of Russia's energy giant Gazprom is pictured against a blue sky at one of its petrol stations in Sofia on April 27, 2022
The logo of Russia's energy giant Gazprom at a gas station in 2022.

Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images

  • Gazprom's share price hit a 15-year low amid ongoing export challenges to Europe.
  • It comes after the company posted its first annual loss since 1999 in May.
  • The EU is pushing to phase out its use of Russian gas, impacting Gazprom's European market share.

Gazprom's share price tumbled to a new low on Wednesday, the latest episode in a calamitous year for the Russian state-owned energy juggernaut.

According to Russian outlet RBC, Gazprom's 106.1-ruble share price on Tuesday represented its lowest value since January 2009. As of Wednesday, the share price had dropped further to 105.75 rubles.

In comparison, just before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Gazprom's share price hovered around 300 rubles.

Analysts speaking to RBC attributed the slide to broader market factors as well as roadblocks in Gazprom's ability to export gas to Europe, as the continent doubles down on its commitment to end its dependence on Russian energy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In May, Gazprom posted its first annual loss since 1999, and its share price immediately dropped by 4.4%. It continued to tumble through June, to a then-low of around 113 rubles.

The dreary May report reflected Gazprom's "loss of a significant share of the European gas market," Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Business Insider.

In this pool photograph distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks with Russia's energy giant Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller as they visit the Lakhta Centre skyscraper, the headquarters of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom in Saint Petersburg on June 5, 2024.
President Vladimir Putin (R) with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller at the company's headquarters.

Alexander Kazakov / POOL / AFP via Getty Images

Impact of Russia's war

Prior to 2022, Europe sourced around 40% of its natural gas from Russia. In June, a Gazprom report seen by the Financial Times said that it would take a decade for the company to recoup losses caused by the war in Ukraine.

Compounding the concerns, an agreement to transit Russian gas via Ukraine is set to end on January 1, 2025.

In September, European Commissioner Kadri Simson said that the EU is "fully committed" to phasing out Russian gas via the Ukraine pipeline. "We started preparing two years ago," she said.

The move away from Russian gas is not without its headaches for EU countries, and Slovakia is leading efforts from some affected countries to stop this flow running out.

On Monday, following a meeting with Slovakia's prime minister, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reiterated what the country had been signaling for some time: that it has no interest in renewing the deal.

He added, however, that Ukraine is open to the transit of gas from other sources.

Yafimava told BI that "the transit question is still hanging in the balance," but a recent decision by Austrian energy company OMV to cut ties with Gazprom amid a thorny contract dispute has "arguably weakened" its chances of continuing.

OMV's decision earlier this month was a historic blow to Gazprom, with the company among the first in Western Europe to import and invest in Russian gas during the Soviet era.

Industry experts told Business Insider this month that the end of the OMV deal was a significant indicator of Europe's success in weaning itself off Russian energy, one that would have been unthinkable before the invasion of Ukraine.

Even so, Gazprom's problems in Europe are not a death knell for the company, Yafimava said.

Gazprom can stay afloat thanks to the large domestic gas market in Russia, she said, adding that the blow had been cushioned by sharply increased gas prices.

Gazprom needs to find new markets "while the cushion lasts," she added.

One option ahead for it is an agreement over Power of Siberia 2, a Russia-China pipeline that would sharply increase exports to China. "In my view, this will eventually happen," Yafimava said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

North Korean soldiers attacked Russian forces by mistake due to a language barrier, Ukraine says

Destroyed Russian tanks lie on a roadside near Sudzha, in the Kursk region, on August 16.
Destroyed Russian tanks on a roadside near Sudzha, in Kursk, on August 16. Image used for illustration purposes only.

AP Photo

  • Ukraine said that North Korean troops had accidentally killed 8 Russian soldiers in Kursk.
  • Ukrainian intelligence said it was a "friendly fire" incident caused by a language barrier.
  • Experts previously told BI that language issues would pose a challenge for the military alliance.

Eight Russian soldiers were killed by North Korean forces in a recent "friendly fire" incident in Kursk, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

North Korean soldiers opened fire on Russian military vehicles, Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said on Saturday, attributing it to a language barrier between the two forces.

It didn't say when the incident took place, but added that language barriers continue to be a "difficult obstacle" for Russian and North Korean personnel, per The Kyiv Independent's translation.

Business Insider could not independently verify the report.

North Korea has sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US have said.

Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, told Voice of America last month that the number could reach 15,000, with troops rotated out every two to three months. He said a cumulative 100,000 North Korean soldiers could serve in Russia within a year.

Experts on the relationship between the two states have previously said that the language difference between North Korean and Russian soldiers would be a key logistical issue.

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert in North Korean defense at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, told BI that though the two countries have historical ties, they rarely learn each other's language.

"To conduct combat operations with an allied force that doesn't speak your language presents real problems," he said.

North Korean soldiers have been sent to aid Russian forces in Kursk, an area of Russia that was partially occupied by Ukraine in August.

The North Korean soldiers are reported to have been scattered across various Russian units and had already come under Ukrainian fire as of early November.

Audio intercepted by Defense Intelligence of Ukraine in October suggested a chaotic start to the Russia-North Korea partnership, not least because of language difficulties.

In the intercepted audio, a Russian soldier complained about leaders having "no fucking clue" what to do with the new troops and remarked that they had been allocated one interpreter per 30 soldiers.

The soldiers reportedly killed in the friendly fire incident were from the Ahmat battalion, Ukrainian intelligence said β€” a group under the control of Chechen warlord and Putin loyalist Ramzan Kadyrov.

"Kadyorovites," as they are known, have been fighting in Kursk since August, according to reports.

Ukraine initially seized a large swathe of Kursk in its surprise cross-border raid β€” around 500 square miles β€” but Russian forces have retaken about 40% of that land, a senior Ukrainian military source told Reuters in late November.

Read the original article on Business Insider

A European nation cut ties with Gazprom, saying it won't be 'blackmailed' by Russia

An aerial view of Vyngayakhinsky gas field, 200km from Noyabrsk, Siberia, showing multicolored industrial buildings in the snow.
An aerial view of Vyngayakhinsky gas field, 200km from Noyabrsk, Siberia, showing multicolored industrial buildings in the snow.

AFP via Getty Images

  • An Austrian gas company ended its historic relationship with Russia's Gazprom.
  • Austria framed the move as defiance against Russian energy blackmail attempts.
  • It's a key step in Europe's thorny path to gaining energy independence from Russia.

A European gas supplier ended a decades-long contract with Gazprom, the Russian state-owned energy juggernaut.

Analysts are hailing the decision as a sign of Europe moving to be more resilient in its energy supplies.

The Austrian gas conglomerate OMV announced on Wednesday that it was cutting ties with Gazprom over a protracted contract dispute, ending its dealings with Russia.

OMV was one of the last large, long-term buyers of Russian gas.

"Huge, positive development. Russia is in trouble," political scientist Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, wrote on X about the collapse of the deal.

The termination of the 34-year contract comes after months of wrangling between the two companies, in which Gazprom switched off the gas supply to OMV last month.

Austria's government β€”Β which owns 31.5% of OMV β€” framed the move as defiance against Russian attempts to blackmail the country, a common refrain from European leaders.

Austria's chancellor, Karl Nehammer, wrote on X on Wednesday: "Russia wanted to use energy as a weapon against us β€” that didn't work," adding: "Austria cannot be blackmailed by Russia!"

Russia wanted to use energy as a weapon against us - that didn't work. Gazprom didn't stick to the contracts, so @omv is immediately terminating the contract, which was supposed to run until 2040. Our energy supply is secure because we are well prepared. Austria cannot be…

β€” Karl Nehammer (@karlnehammer) December 11, 2024

Austria has a secure energy supply, he added.

The news is a blow to Gazprom and, despite rising prices, is one sign of success on Europe's rocky path to wean itself off energy dependence on Russia, industry experts told Business Insider.

Dmitrij Ljubinskij, Russia's ambassador to Austria, denied in an interview with Ivzestia that Russia uses energy as a tool of pressure and said that OMV's move would not go unanswered.

Gazprom did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A calculated move?

Gazprom's supply to OMV and Austria β€” which comes via Ukraine β€” was not likely to be there for long anyway.

Ukraine has long signaled that it will not renew an agreement, which expires in January, to allow Russian gas to transit its pipelines.

Jack Sharples, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told Business Insider that OMV had likely been eyeing the Ukrainian decision, in parallel to the Gazprom dispute, for some time, and preparing alternative suppliers.

"There were significant risks to transit as a result of the Ukrainian transit deal ending in January, so canceling the deal seems a good idea," Tom Edwards, a modeler at the energy-market analysis company Cornwall Insight, told BI.

OMV now says its gas storage is at around 85%, and that it's well positioned to supply gas from alternative sources.

A feud entangled deep in the Ukraine war

OMV's announcement ends a historic partnership. It was among the first Western European, non-socialist companies to import gas and invest in Soviet Russia in the 1960s.

It signed its 34-year contract with Gazprom to supply Austria with gas in 2006, signaling a relationship of trust that showed signs of breaking down with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

By March that year, the company announced it would no longer invest in Russia, but kept up its long-term supply relationship.

A Brookings Institute report from June highlighted that remaining tie as one of the many issues Europe still faced in decoupling, saying any break would be fraught with risk.

But a long-running, separate contract dispute sowed the seeds. A subsidiary of OMV had a smaller contract with Gazprom to supply gas to Germany via the Nord Stream undersea pipelines.

In summer 2022, Gazprom said that newly-imposed sanctions were preventing it from accessing key parts needed to drive the pipe's turbine.

That supply petered out and then stopped. Infamously, it never restarted after the attack on Nord Stream a few months later.

OMV went to commercial arbitration over the lack of supply to Germany, and in November was awarded 230 million euros, or about $240 million, plus interest and costs.

It said it would offset this award "against payments to be made by OMV to Gazprom Export under its Austrian gas supply contract."

Gas prices jumped 5% at the news, reaching a new high for the year. Three days later, Gazprom shut off the supply to Austria.

Europe is β€” slowly β€” weaning itself off Russian gas

The start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine stiffened political will across Europe to end dependency on Russian energy β€” something few could have foreseen, Sharples said.

Before 2022, Europe got around 40% of its imported natural gas from Russia.

"I think if you had asked European gas market analysts back in 2021, could the European market cope with losing 80% of what it gets from Gazprom via pipelines? We'd have said no, it would be horrendous," he said.

The landscape has changed significantly, Sharples said.

Over the last years, Europe has invested more not only in alternative suppliers but also the integration of its distribution system, meaning it can more flexibly respond to shortages, he said.

There are still many difficulties. A Chatham House analysis from this year pointed out that some replacement imports are Russian gas being "laundered" via third states.

And as of 2024, gas prices are still higher than they were before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sharples said.

But the market has reacted with both a reduction in demand and the seeking out of alternative supplies, he said.

"What has actually happened is that European gas demand has come down by a fifth, and we've ramped up our imports of LNG from the global market," he said.

"There's no doubt that Gazprom has lost a huge chunk of its revenues by losing these export volumes to Europe," he said.

The impact on Russia

"Gazprom has lost a substantial share of its gas sector revenues since February 2022, and the loss of the Austrian market is another chip away at those revenues," Sharples said.

"It's not make-or-break for Gazprom, but it certainly doesn't help."

There's also a domestic impact β€” the Russian government derives much of its tax revenue from energy sales and also uses the funding from Europe to subsidize domestic gas prices, Sharples said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

This CEO wants his airline to be the first to start flying to Ukraine again

Martin Gauss, head of Latvian airline Air Baltic, stands in his office with a model airplane in his hand.
Martin Gauss, the CEO of airBaltic.

Alexander Welscher/picture alliance via Getty Images

  • Latvia's airBaltic has been heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine, its CEO Martin Gauss said.
  • He told Business Insider it plans to be the first airline back into Ukraine when the conflict ends.
  • Gauss led airBaltic out of bankruptcy and has spearheaded plans for an IPO next year.

AirBaltic plans to be the first airline to restart flights to Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement, CEO Martin Gauss told Business Insider.

The Latvian flag carrier also has bases in Estonia and Lithuania. All three countries border Russia and are NATO and the European Union members.

"What I think is an upside now is a potential peace because that's not priced in for us," Gauss said in a Monday interview in London.

"That would be a huge upside as we were the last airline out of Ukraine and would be the first one in," he added.

Gauss told BI that the start of the war impacted airBaltic "very heavily" due to missing passenger flows from Ukraine and Russia.

However, he added that tourism to the Baltic countries was no longer suffering as fears had eased about them being invaded by Russia, too.

AirBaltic has still been hampered by airspace restrictions.

"The overflying restrictions are still there and everything which goes southeast is, for us, a detour β€” circumnavigating the airspace," Gauss said.

The airline has more than 70 destinations β€” including Cyprus, Turkey, and Dubai β€” where the fastest route from Latvia would involve flying over Ukraine.

Finding alternative routes isn't simple. Gauss explained how flying south from the Baltics, there's only a "small corridor" between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

"Once that is too busy, we need to fly over Sweden into the south," Gauss added. "So there's an impact on the cost side."

AirBaltic's turnaround

Gauss started his career as a pilot in 1992 with Deutsche BA, then a low-cost subsidiary of British Airways. He then entered management training with the airline and worked his way up.

After developing a reputation for turning around airlines, he was headhunted for airBaltic in 2011. The airline had gone bankrupt, but the Latvian government agreed to invest more capital.

"I had to come up, in a couple of weeks, with suggestions of what you could do with a technically bankrupt airline," Gauss told BI.

"What makes it so special was that in 2012 […] we had to make a decision for the future aircraft fleet," he added. "And we took a decision to go for an aircraft type which didn't exist at the time β€” an A220."

In 2016, AirBaltic became the launch operator of the Airbus A220. It's a smaller jet with a capacity of 150, but it can still fly farther than the regional aircraft it competes with, such as the Embraer E195.

Air Baltic Airbus A220-300 the former Bombardier CSeries CS300 BD-500 aircraft as seen departing from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport.
AirBaltic is the largest operator of the Airbus A220.

Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Today, airBaltic is the largest operator of the type with 48 A220s β€” with plans to double that by 2030. Based on order books, Gauss said, "We are the only airline which can double in size in Europe in the next five years."

Gauss has also promoted new technologies in his time at the helm. AirBaltic accepted bitcoin as payment back in 2014 and has minted NFTs that generate airline loyalty points.

It's also set to be the first airline in Europe to use Elon Musk's Starlink internet as soon as it's certified by the continent's aviation regulators.

Gauss is pleased with the success of his business model, with preparations underway for an IPO.

"It was intended to do it earliest in the second half of this year, which we canceled because of the market situation, so we said, first opportunity is first half of 2025 for an IPO."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Ukraine's tiny navy is using a WWI-era tactic to confuse its enemy

A Ukrainian Small Armored Artillery Boat (SAB) in the "dazzle camouflage" livery.
A Ukrainian Small Armored Artillery Boat painted with what appears to be dazzle camouflage.

Ukrainian Navy

  • Ukraine's navy released images of vessels with what is likely a dazzle-camouflage paint job.
  • It stems from a WWI-era tactic to make it harder for the enemy to gauge a ship's speed and direction.
  • A naval expert told BI that the tactic has limited use, but could help against drones.

Ukraine's navy has revealed a fresh paint job on some of its vessels, which appear to have adopted a World War I-era tactic of using dazzle camouflage.

The Ukrainian navy shared the images on social media on Thursday, showing versions of the paintwork.

The vessels included at least one small armored artillery boat and an island-class patrol vessel, according to military site MilitaryNYI.

The boats were pictured taking part in a demonstration for naval experts from Denmark, which is cooperating with Ukraine on various naval issues, Ukraine's navy said.

It's unclear when the paint job was applied.

A Ukrainian Small Armored Artillery Boat (SAB) in the "dazzle camouflage" livery
A Ukrainian Small Armored Artillery Boat painted in the apparent dazzle camouflage.

Ukrainian Navy

In the pictures, the boats feature distinctive, jagged patterns in various shades of gray, likely a design approach meant to confuse enemy onlookers.

The idea is that the differing shapes trick the eye, making it hard to calculate a ship's speed and direction.

How much of an edge it will really give Ukraine's boats in modern warfare remains to be seen.

"This does appear to be dazzling camouflage," Sidharth Kaushal, a sea power expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.

He said the tactic could have some utility against optical sensors β€” on drones, for example β€” "but would have less value against radar-guided threats."

Dazzle camouflage first emerged in World War I as a means to confuse enemy submarines and reduce their ability to effectively aim torpedoes.

However, it has also seen some modern usage.

In 2021, the Royal Navy's HMS Tamar was repainted in dazzle camo as a way to give it a "distinct identity" before it set off on a tour, the BBC reported.

The HMS Tamar seen in June 2021 on a grey day, painted with dazzle camo in grey. Far in the background the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier is also dimly visible.
HMS Tamar with dazzle camouflage in 2021.

Aaron Chown/PA Images via Getty Images

In July 2023, Russia also used a related gambit,Β painting its ships with blocks of blackΒ at each end in an apparent attempt to make them appear smaller and, therefore, harder to strike accurately.

At the time, Russia's Black Sea Fleet was being targeted by Ukraine, which was using long-range missiles and drones to take out vessels.

This resulted in the relocation of much of the Russian fleet from the strategic port of Sevastopol, in Crimea, to the further away port of Novorossysk.

Ukraine's navy has no large ships on active duty and consists mainly of small vessels, like those seen in the recent images.

Denmark's recently-announced cooperation with Ukraine aims to address issues of protecting Ukrainian ports and securing the Black Sea grain corridor, as well as the removal of naval mines and helping it to develop a more modern fleet, Ukraine's navy said.

In October, Denmark announced a $340 million aid package for Ukraine, which included new weapons and equipment.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Putin tells Russians there's no reason to panic as the ruble sinks, but analysts say its economy is in trouble

A close-up of Putin looking upward.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said there was no reason to panic about the ruble's slide.

REUTERS/Yves Herman

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said the ruble's plunge to two-year lows was no cause for panic.
  • The Russian currency hit its lowest level against the dollar since March 2022 this week.
  • Analysts say Russia is under pressure from inflation, military spending, and falling oil prices.

Russians shouldn't stress about the ruble tumbling to two-year lows, Vladimir Putin said Thursday. Analysts told Business Insider there was plenty of cause for concern.

The Russian leader told reporters that the "situation is under control" and that "there are absolutely no grounds for panic," according to a Google translation of a report from the RIA Novosti news agency.

Putin attributed the ruble's fluctuations "not only to inflation but also to budget payments and oil prices," along with many seasonal factors.

The Russian currency traded at 114 to the dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since March 2022, shortly after the Ukraine invasion began. It was about 84 in early August, meaning the currency has depreciated by 36% in under four months. A greenback was worth about 108 rubles on Friday.

Russia's central bank stepped in to shore up the floundering ruble on Wednesday. It suspended purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market for the rest of this year to reduce volatility.

A Wednesday headline in the state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta read, "Panic attack for Russia's currency market." The Kommersant newspaper warned readers to "buckle up your rubles."

The ruble's latest plunge follows the US sanctioning Gazprombank, one of Russia's largest lenders. The restrictions limit the bank's ability to access global financial markets and handle energy payments.

Russia also fired a hypersonic missile into Ukraine last week after its opponent launched missiles at targets inside Russia for the first time. The escalation has raised concerns of further economic disruption.

A weakening ruble benefits Russian exporters by making their goods more competitive in global markets. But it threatens to accelerate inflation by raising the cost of imports, leaving sellers little choice but to increase their prices. Stubborn inflation has already spurred Russia's central bank to raise the main interest rate to 21%, the highest level since 2003.

The Russian economy has suffered from Western sanctions imposed since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with energy revenue tanking by almost a quarter last year. Other countries, such as India, have snapped up Russian oil instead, tempering the impact of price caps and other penalties.

Mounting pressure on Russia

Robin Brooks, a senior fellow focused on the global economy and development at the Brookings Institution, posted on X that the ruble's collapse shows how vulnerable Russia is to sanctions.

He also said the European Union's reluctance to impose certain penalties might have staved off economic disaster in Russia.

The collapse of Russia's Ruble (black) is a reminder how badly the EU failed on Russia. It follows the recent US sanctioning of Gazprombank, which the EU opposed for a long time. Russia could have been sent into deep financial crisis 2 years ago. The EU didn't let that happen... pic.twitter.com/XbOwqiABRd

β€” Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) November 28, 2024

George Pavel at the trading platform Naga.com told BI the ruble's dive had been driven by rising inflation and a widening budget deficit fueled by heavy military spending.

"Russia's economic path looks unsustainable barring major changes," he said, ticking off concerns such as slowing growth, stubborn inflation, a tight labor market, and the massive cost of the Ukraine war.

Brent crude is trading at just over $70 a barrel, and sliding oil prices pose an existential threat to Russia, said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

"Russian income is shrinking at the same time as defense spending is surging as the war with Ukraine enters a more intense phase," Brooks said. "While President Trump may go some way to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, his policy on energy and plans to get the US pumping even more oil could weigh on the oil price further in 2025, which is bad news for Russia."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Satellite images show Russia defying sanctions to give North Korea 1 million barrels of oil: report

In this satellite image marked up by Open Source Centre, the North Korean-flagged tanker Yu Son has been highlighted at Russia's Vostochny port on May 18, 2024.
In this satellite image marked up by Open Source Centre, the North Korean-flagged tanker Yu Son has been highlighted at Russia's Vostochny port.

Planet Labs/Open Source Centre

  • Russia has sent North Korea 1 million barrels of oil since March, according to satellite imagery analysis.
  • The findings underscore the growing partnership between the countries, which includes military aid.
  • The oil shipments are in defiance of UN sanctions, which Russia has ignored in the past.

An analysis of satellite images shows Russia defying sanctions to supply North Korea with at least one million barrels of oil this year, according to a new report.

The findings underscore the increasing partnership between the two states, and the extent to which Russia is willing to flout international norms to pursue its war in Ukraine.

The investigation, published jointly by the BBC and analysts at the UK-based Open Source Centre, used aerial and satellite images to track tanker shipping routes between Russia's port of Vostochny, in the country's far east, and five separate North Korean ports and oil terminals.

In the imagery, vessels would set out from North Korea riding high in the water, but on their return would appear fully laden, the group said.

In this image marked up by the Open Source Centre, the North Korean-flagged Yu Son tanker can be seen riding low in the water in the Yellow Sea.
In this image marked up by the Open Source Centre, the Yu Son was deemed to be carrying oil to North Korea.

Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON / Open Source Centre

In this image marked up by the Open Source Centre, the North Korean-flagged Yu Son tanker can be seen riding high in the water in the Yellow Sea.
In this image, the Yu Son looks empty.

Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON / Open Source Centre

The oil is payment for weapons and troops sent to aid Russia's war in Ukraine, the UK's foreign secretary, David Lammy, told the BBC.

Open Source Centre used the imagery to estimate that between March and November this year, Russia provided North Korea with at least a million barrels of oil β€” double the amount that North Korea is allowed to import under UN sanctions.

The UN Security Council β€” of which Russia is a permanent member β€” sanctioned North Korea in December 2017, forbidding the transfer of more than 500,000 barrels of oil a year to the state.

In March this year, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to extend the mandate of the expert panel tasked with monitoring the sanctions, effectively disbanding it.

Russia's Vostochny port in 2008. A number of cranes and shipping containers can be seen against the bay and a background of hills.
Russia's Vostochny port in 2008.

Ursula Hyzy/AFP via Getty Images

The Open Source Centre and BBC investigation, which Business Insider has not independently confirmed, appears to back up assertions made by a US official in May.

The unnamed official told Reuters that in March alone, more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum had left Vostochny headed for North Korea, and that "Russian shipments have already pushed DPRK imports above the 500,000-barrel annual cap."

The new findings also give further insight into the continued material exchanges between Russia and North Korea.

Analysts have warned for months about the growing partnership between the two countries.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who signed a mutual defense agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, has supplied vast amounts of ammunition and β€” it is believed β€” artillery to Russia to help in its invasion of Ukraine.

Around 11,000 North Korean troops have also been sent to fight, according to Ukraine, with reports suggesting that as many as 100,000 could be deployed within a year.

The two states have not made clear what the terms of the exchange are, but South Korean intelligence has estimated that it could be receiving about $2,000 per soldier a month, as well as food and access to advanced technology.

Earlier this year, a Carnegie Endowment analysis said the partnership was taking shape against the backdrop of the "slow and irreversible breakdown of the Kim dynasty."

But the oil transfers give North Korea "a level of stability it hasn't had since these sanctions were introduced," Joseph Byrne, one of the authors of the Open Source Centre report, told the BBC.

Analysts have previously told BI that the relationship between the two states is largely transactional, but that for Kim it's a "win-win" as he gains access to much-needed resources.

Kim is "getting paid, getting access to foreign technology," Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korea defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI last month.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Parts of Russia are canceling New Year's parties to redirect funds to the war in Ukraine

The Peter and Paul Fortress in St Petersburg is seen in dim light through out-of-focus New Years' illuminations in the foreground on January 1, 2024.
New Year's illuminations in St. Petersburg. Image used for illustration only.

Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

  • Officials in two Russian regions have said public bodies won't be holding New Year's parties this year.
  • The regions said that they're planning to redirect funds to the war in Ukraine instead, per reports.
  • This would be the third year of Russia scaling back celebrations in part to fund its war efforts.

The governments of several Russian regions have decided not to hold New Year's parties, with many proposing to allocate savings to funding the war in Ukraine, according to multiple reports.

The heads of the regions of Buryatia and Sakha, both in the east of the country, announced the move this week, according to The Moscow Times.

The Buryatia region's Telegram account proposed using the saved funds for those participating in the war, and encouraged others to do the same.

"It's wrong for public administrators and local governments to hold such events when the country is conducting a special military operation," the region's government said, per The Moscow Times' translation.

There will also be no fireworks as part of public celebrations to mark the season in the region's capital, Ulan-Ude, local outlet Arigus reported.

In Sakha, Russia's largest region, public institutions will not hold lavish celebrations, local outlet Yakutia 24 reported.

It is the third year in a row that cities and regions in Russia have scaled back festive celebrations.

In 2022, authorities in Tomsk, as well as Saint Petersburg, Sakha, Yaroslavl, and Nizhny Novgorod, all toned down festivities, The Telegraph reported at the time.

In addition to Buryatia and Sakha, several other regions have also said they'll be scaling back this year and sending funds to the military, according to Russian outlet Vedomosti.

Leningrad's governor announced plans to limit concerts and celebrations in favor of supporting the war efforts.

New Year is Russia's main festive celebration in December, as the country celebrates Christmas on January 7, in accordance with the practices of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian children traditionally receive gifts for New Year. The governments in both Buryatia and Sakha said that children's festivities wouldn't be affected.

There are signs that Russia's public sector is under strain, with large layoffs planned in 2025.

Russia is expected to lay off at least 40,000 government officials next year, according to a report by the Russian Kommersant newspaper.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered regional branches of federal government agencies to cut staff by 10% by July, per the outlet, which said that the cuts are designed to make the civil service more efficient and raise the salaries of existing staff.

It would also allow more people to enter Russia's labor market, which is experiencing a widespread shortage of workers amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Many holiday celebrations have been affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the last years, not least Ukraine's own.

Ukraine is bracing itself for rolling blackouts this winter, per the Atlantic Council.

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