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Democrats aren't ruling out rescuing Trump's big bill
Some moderate House Democrats are keeping the door open to supporting the massive tax, border and energy package President-elect Trump and Republicans are concocting โ if the price is right.
Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has virtually no room for error to pass the bill along party lines, and some of his right-wing hardliners are harshly conditioning their votes.
- "One of several, for me, 'bright lines,' 'red lines,' however you want to say it, is deficit reduction," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told reporters on Thursday.
- That could be a heavy lift with Republicans planning trillions in tax cut extensions, on top of funding for things like enhanced border security.
What we're hearing: The main way Republicans could try to entice some breakaway Democratic support is through raising the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.
- That would put money directly into the pockets of suburbanites in high-tax blue states like California, New York and New Jersey.
- "I'm not going to say what I will support or not support until I see the specifics, but I think SALT is critically important ... and this is a huge opportunity to bring SALT back fully," said Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).
- Rep. George Latimer (D-N.Y.) told Axios, "Obviously I like full SALT restoration, but let's see where the negotiations take us. ... The doors are open for whatever helps."
State of play: Some of the House GOP's most ardent advocates for SALT, like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), are pushing hard to include a generous provision in the bill and are going to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to make their case.
- Trump said on the 2024 campaign trail he would reverse the SALT cap that was part of the 2017 tax bill he signed into law.
- But the high price tag of that policy could make it a tough sell for deficit hawks like Roy, who told reporters, "Obviously, if you significantly lift or eliminate the cap, there's a fairly significant impact in terms of revenues."
The intrigue: Some of the other centrist Democrats who may be inclined to give the package a fair look would be turned off by the inclusion of a strong SALT provision.
- Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who represents a working-class, rural district, told Axios he would support the bill "if there's stuff in there that's good for Maine or that I like."
- But, he added, "I don't like SALT. It's just a huge giveaway to the top 10%, and I care about the deficit. So that's a bad start."
Reality check: Extending the Trump tax cuts could ultimately be a bridge too far for most Democrats, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) calling the package the "GOP tax scam part two" at a press conference on Wednesday.
- "Wasting trillions of dollars on tax giveaways to the super-wealthy is offensive on its face," said centrist Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
- Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said it would be "very hard to support a tax bill that reduces corporate taxes, that doesn't put the top rate back to where it was."
Johnson, asked by Axios if he is willing to work with Democrats on the legislation, said: "We welcome all Democrats to vote for a good package. This is going to be great legislation. It's an America First agenda, but it follows common sense."
- Trump appears to be willing to take Democratic input: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) told reporters Thursday he plans to make a trek to Mar-a-Lago this weekend.
The bottom line: Even skeptical Democrats say they are ready to talk if things fall apart for Johnson and he decides to engage with them.
- "They're going to want to do this on their own," said Landsman. "If they can't because of the slim majority, obviously they're going to need our help. And that's when the bipartisan magic happens."
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SCOTUS allows Trump hush-money sentencing to proceed on Friday
- The US Supreme Court on Thursday rejected Trump's request to block his NY hush-money sentencing.
- The decision means Trump must attend sentencing Friday morning, though he can do so by video.
- Prosecutors said Thursday that they will not seek jail, fines, or probation at sentencing.
The US Supreme Court on Thursday rejected President-elect Donald Trump's last-ditch effort to block his New York hush-money sentencing, which now remains set for 9:30 a.m. on Friday.
The high court's decision means Trump must attend or face a potential bench warrant for his arrest just 10 days before Inauguration Day.
Four conservative justices โ Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito, Neil M. Gorsuch, and Brett M. Kavanaugh โ had sided with Trump.
Two conservatives on the panel โ Chief Justice John G. Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett โ broke ranks and supported Manhattan prosecutors.
In their one-page order, the five-judge majority gave two reasons for rejecting Trump's attempt to halt the sentencing.
"First, the alleged evidentiary violations at President-Elect Trump's state-court trial can be addressed in the ordinary course on appeal," meaning post-sentencing, they wrote.
"Second, the burden that sentencing will impose on the President-Elect's responsibilities is relatively insubstantial," they wrote, given that Trump faces a no-punishment sentence and can attend the hearing virtually.
Trump's lawyers last week asked that he be allowed to attend by video, a request approved by his trial judge, state Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg did not oppose Trump attending virtually and said Thursday that his office will not seek jail, fines, or probation at what will likely be a very brief hearing.
Under New York sentencing guidelines, Trump had faced as little as zero jail time and as much as four years in prison for his May 30 conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.
A Manhattan jury found he altered Trump Organization invoices and other records throughout his first year in office in order to retroactively hide a $130,000 hush money payment that silenced porn actress Stormy Daniels eleven days before the 2016 election.
"Every legal scholar stated, unequivocally, that this is a case that should never have been brought," Trump said in a Truth Social post Thursday night.
"There was no case against me," he added. "This was nothing other than Weaponization of our Justice System against a Political Opponent. It's called Lawfare, and nothing like this has ever happened in the United States of America, and it should never be allowed to happen again."
Speaking minutes after the SCOTUS order from Mar-a-Lago, Trump promised to appeal his conviction and repeated that the prosecution is an "attack on a political opponent."
"That's much more important than tomorrow," he said of his planned appeal.
Trump had fought hard to avoid sentencing, despite facing little inconvenience or penalty beyond some potential issues with his New Jersey liquor licenses.
Over the past week, his lawyers had argued in four courthouses โ in Manhattan, Albany, and Washington, DC โ that any invocation of presidential immunity automatically entitles Trump to a stay pending appeal, even before he is sworn in.
In their opposition filings, Manhattan prosecutors scoffed at the idea that "president-elect immunity" is even a thing. The US Supreme Court's landmark July 1 opinion granted presidents broad immunity from prosecution, but made no mention of immunity prior to swearing in, lawyers for Bragg said.
"Defendant's novel invocation of President-elect immunity does not warrant his Court's premature intervention" in an ongoing state criminal case, Bragg told the high court in papers filed Thursday morning.
Defense lawyers have promised to file a post-sentencing appeal of the conviction, with SCOTUS if necessary, given what they say were violations of Trump's constitutional rights prior to and during the trial.
In their primary example, they say grand jurors and trial jurors in the hush-money case improperly heard evidence that includes acts Trump took in his official role as president, which prosecutors are now barred from using.
That official-act evidence, all from 2018, includes tweets Trump sent, a federal form he signed, and a conversation he had in the Oval Office with Hope Hicks, his communications director.
Prosecutors and the trial judge, Merchan have argued that even if this was official-act evidence, it was a "harmless error" to share it with jurors, given the other overwhelming proof of guilt.
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Supreme Court denies Trump's effort to stop hush money sentencing
The Supreme Court on Thursday denied President-elect Trump's request to delay his Friday sentencing in his criminal hush money case.
Why it matters: Though Trump faces no jail time for his 34 felony convictions, the Supreme Court's decision is the final blow to his efforts to sideline his sentencing just days before he returns to the White House.
- The sentencing will formalize his status as the only [CUT: living?] president to be convicted of a crime.
- Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.
Catch up quick: Trump turned to the Supreme Court in an 11th-hour attempt to halt proceedings in the case while his presidential immunity appeals play out.
- "Forcing President Trump to prepare for a criminal sentencing in a felony case while he is preparing to lead the free world as President of the United States in less than two weeks imposes an intolerable, unconstitutional burden on him that undermines these vital national interests," Trump's team wrote in their appeal to the Supreme Court.
- His attorneys further contended that presidential immunity should extend to presidents-elect in the "brief but crucial" time before they take office.
State of play: The 5-4 decision by the conservative-majority court all but ensures that Trump's sentencing continues as planned for Friday.
- Chief Justice John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett, whom Trump appointed to the high court, sided with the liberal justices in making the decision.
Zoom in: Trump's sentencing will place a "relatively insubstantial" burden on his responsibilities as president-elect, the Supreme Court said.
- Judge Juan Merchan has indicated that he'd impose a sentence of "unconditional discharge."
- The Supreme Court noted that Trump's "alleged evidentiary violations" could be addressed on appeal.
What they're saying: District Attorney Alvin Bragg argued in a Thursday filing to the Supreme Court that there is "no basis for such intervention" to take the "extraordinary step" of halting sentencing before the court's final decision.
- The "defendant makes the unprecedented claim that the temporary presidential immunity he will possess in the future fully immunizes him now, weeks before he even takes the oath of office," Bragg wrote of Trump's stay request.
Flashback: A New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records last year, making him the first-ever former U.S. president to be a convicted felon.
- But the Supreme Court's ruling that presidents have immunity for "official acts" gave Trump legal ammunition in his numerous attempts to see the case tossed or postponed.
- His federal criminal cases crumbled after his presidential win, and his Georgia case remains frozen in limbo.
Go deeper: How prosecuting Trump backfired
Editor's note: Axios' Erin Doherty contributed reporting.
Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
Zillow predicts 2025's hottest real estate markets
This year's hottest housing markets are spreading westward, marking a continued shift in America's centers of power and jobs.
Why it matters: Last year, the Rust Belt dominated Zillow's annual market ranking.
The big picture: Zillow's annual ranking forecasts the most competitive housing markets for buyers. Markets at the top of the list are largely "starved for housing inventory," the real estate platform shares with Axios.
- These regions tend to be relatively affordable with strong job and wage growth.
The intrigue: Buffalo is No. 1 again, and several metros dropped significantly or fell off the list entirely between the 2024 and 2025 rankings, Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy tells Axios.
Hartford, Connecticut, and Richmond, Virginia, are the rising stars to watch in 2025. Sellers there have the upper hand as homes fly off the market at record speed.
- Across most of the U.S., buyers and sellers are at somewhat of a stalemate, Divounguy says.
Meanwhile, San Francisco and Memphis are slipping. They fell 19 and 30 positions, respectively. In these markets, homes are already sitting on the market longer, and home values are expected to depreciate, according to Divounguy.
The bottom line: Affordability and inventory are the name of the game.