• Los Angeles wildfires have burned 40,000 acres, killing 24 and destroying 12,000 structures.
• Goldman Sachs estimates the fires as one of the 20 costliest US natural disasters.
• The firm took stock of the impact the fires will have on US GDP and the labor market.

The devastating wildfires across Los Angeles are sparking concerns about the potential impact on the broader economy.

Early estimates of the total damage rank the wildfire as one of the 20 costliest natural disasters as a share of GDP in US history, according to Goldman Sachs.

Insured losses are expected to reach as high as $30 billion, and AccuWeather estimates the total economic losses from the fire could be as high as $275 billion.

Goldman Sachs took stock of the impact the fires are expected to have on broad readings of the US economy.

The bank estimates that first-quarter GDP growth will decline by 0.2 percentage points, which excludes offsetting effects from a rapid rebuild of communities, which has typically followed past wildfires.

For the January employment report, Goldman Sachs estimates "a modest drag" of 15,000 to 25,000 jobs due to the wildfires because "only about 0.5% of California's population is currently under evacuation order or warning."

For weekly unemployment insurance claims, the bank said it doesn't see a huge uptick driven by the wildfires.

"Timely alternative data have not shown a noticeable pickup in online searches for unemployment benefits since the start of the first," economists at Goldman Sachs said. "As a result, we expect another low initial claims reading on Thursday."

A potential rise in inflation has been a main market concern in recent months, and insurance represents a component of inflation reports.

But Goldman Sachs doesn't expect higher insurance costs driven by the wildfires to impact inflation meaningfully.

"Our insurance equity analysts expect limited spillover to prices outside of California and because the weight of homeowners' insurance in the PCE price index is just 0.1%," Goldman Sachs explained.

Additionally, Jeffrey Mezger, the CEO of homebuilder KB Home, said the resulting rebuild efforts in Los Angeles should not lead to an uptick in inflation related to labor and materials.

"The population is big and the capacity is there to handle a lot. So I don't expect a lot of labor or material pinch," Mezger said in his company's earnings call on Monday.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that with the Eaton and Palisades fires at about 33% and 14% containment as of Monday evening, there remains considerable uncertainty about the ultimate property damages, including insured and uninsured losses.

• Ukraine carried out what it said was its "largest attack" against Russian military facilities.
• The operation early on Tuesday targeted military and energy sites across Russia.
• It marks Ukraine's latest effort to degrade the Kremlin's war machine.

Ukraine said its forces carried out what it described as their "largest attack" of the war against Russia's military facilities on Tuesday, hitting targets — including a key airbase — hundreds of miles across the border.

A Ukrainian military drone unit, the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment, said it attacked infrastructure at the Engels-2 airbase, home to Russia's Tu-95 and Tu-160 bomber aircraft.

The strikes targeted an oil storage facility that supplied fuel for the bombers at Engels, a strategic base located nearly 400 miles into Russia in the Saratov region. It marked the second time in less than a week that Ukraine attacked the site, causing a fire.

"A multi-day complex operation to reduce the enemy's strategic aviation capabilities has been completed," the 14th wrote in a statement.

Closer to home, the Ukrainian military said that it hit a chemical plant in the city of Seltso in Russia's Bryansk region and destroyed two anti-aircraft systems. Kyiv said the Seltso facility produces artillery and rocket ammunition, as well as parts for Kh-59 cruise missiles.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, a branch of the military that was formally established last year, said that drones were used to distract the Russian air defenses before missiles rained down on the site. Kyiv employed the same tactic in an attack on a warehouse last week.

During the huge overnight operation, the Ukrainian military also struck the Saratov Oil Refinery and the Kazanorgsintez Plant, causing fires at the sites. It vowed to continue striking facilities that provide Russia with ammunition, military equipment, and fuel.

Russia's defense ministry said that its forces shot down nearly 150 drones outside the "special military operation" zone, a term Moscow uses to refer to its invasion of Ukraine. It mentioned the attack in Bryansk and said Kyiv fired US-provided tactical ballistic missiles but did not provide any details about the other locations.

Business Insider could not independently verify all the reported details of the operation.

The widespread strikes this week are Ukraine's latest cross-border attacks inside Russia. Kyiv has used missiles and drones to target key military and energy facilities across the country as it looks to degrade Moscow's war machine and complicate its operations nearly three years into the conflict.

The strike campaign highlights Ukraine's long reach and its ability to threaten critical facilities hundreds of miles inside Russia using both locally manufactured and Western-provided weapons.

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The New Year's Day attack injured 57 people, the FBI said Tuesday, increasing its latest count from 35.

The latest: The suspect's internet history, the FBI said in its update, also revealed that he had researched Mardi Gras, how to get onto a Bourbon Street balcony and reviewed details about recent New Orleans shootings.

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Between the lines: Investigators have not updated the number of people killed in the attack — 14 innocent victims, plus the suspect, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, who died in a shootout with New Orleans police.

• The FBI counted 136 total victims, including two damaged businesses.

Zoom in: The FBI, which is leading the criminal investigation into the vehicle attack, revealed additional details about Jabbar's motivations in its Tuesday update.

• "Jabbar became a more devout Muslim in 2022," the FBI said. "During this time, Jabbar began isolating himself from society. Around the spring of 2024, Jabbar began following extremist views."

Previous FBI revelations had uncovered some of Jabbar's travels, including trips to New Orleans where he appeared to be scouting the French Quarter around Halloween.

• Tuesday's update filled in some gaps on a one-day trip a short time later, on Nov. 10, 2024.
• On that trip, the FBI says, Jabbar took a train from Houston to New Orleans, returning that night on a bus.
• But while Jabbar was in the city, he looked at an Orleans Street apartment that was for rent. Some days later, he applied for the apartment, but later told the landlord he'd changed his mind, the FBI says.

Jabbar's web history also revealed that, hours before he used a rented truck to drive through a crowded Bourbon Street in New Orleans, he searched for information about the car used in a similar attack 10 days previously at a German Christmas market.

Go deeper

• The victims of the Bourbon Street attack
• How to help after the Bourbon Street attack
• How the New Year's Day attacker was able to get through Bourbon Street security barriers
• President Biden at St. Louis Cathedral: "New Orleans defines strength"
• Even as New Orleans mourns, Carnival begins again
• City, state leaders seek answers after Bourbon Street attack
• NOPD release bodycam footage in New Year's Day attack

• Starbucks is extending its free refills policy to non-rewards members with reusable cups.
• Customers at participating stores will be eligible for a top-up of many brewed coffee and teas.
• Starbucks is also reversing its open-door policy, limiting facilities to paying customers and staff.

Starbucks is expanding its free refills policy to all customers at participating stores as part of its new code of conduct, effective January 27.

Non-rewards members at the coffee giant will soon be able to receive refills at no extra cost as long as their beverage is prepared in a clean reusable cup or a for-here utensil. They also must order in-store and within the same visit.

The offer includes hot and iced brewed coffee and tea but excludes flavored iced tea, cold brew, nitro cold brew, iced tea lemonade, and its Refreshers.

Starbucks rewards members were previously the only ones who could get a free top-up of their order. From February 12th, loyal customers will also have to use a reusable cup or a ceramic in-house mug to be eligible for a refill.

The Seattle-headquartered coffee chain said on Monday that it would also reverse its open-door policy.

The policy was first introduced in 2018 after Starbucks faced widespread criticism over an incident in which two men having a business meeting were arrested at a Philadelphia location after they tried to use the restroom without purchasing anything.

The policy lets non-paying guests use store facilities, like bathrooms, indoor communal areas, and patios.

From January 27th, these spaces will only be reserved for staff, customers, and people accompanying those making purchases.

"Implementing a Coffeehouse Code of Conduct is something most retailers already have and is a practical step that helps us prioritize our paying customers who want to sit and enjoy our cafés or need to use the restroom during their visit," Starbucks' representative Jaci Anderson told BI in an emailed statement.

The changes come as new CEO Brian Niccol sets out his vision to make Starbucks cafés places where people want to hang out again.

• Kevin Egan, former chief sales officer at Atlassian, has joined venture capital firm IVP.
• Egan worked in the trenches of Salesforce, Dropbox, and Slack in the early days of the cloud.
• At IVP, Egan will help close investments and assist portfolio companies with their sales strategy.

IVP, a 45-year-old venture capital firm that's backed Slack, Coinbase, Glean, and Perplexity, is building out its brain trust with the addition of Kevin Egan as a venture partner. Egan stepped down as chief sales officer at Atlassian in August.

Egan is an enterprise sales guru who scaled Salesforce, Slack, and Dropbox in the earliest days of the cloud. Now, he's joining one of the most enduring venture firms on Sand Hill Road to help its startups at a critical inflection point. They've figured out a product that the market wants and now need to scale it, said Ajay Vashee, a general partner at IVP.

"Kevin was the go-to-market exec that helped to make that happen for us," said Vashee, who worked with Egan at Dropbox as chief financial officer.

Salesforce to Slack

Egan's worked in the trenches of some of the fastest-growing enterprise software companies of the past 25 years. He spent a decade at Salesforce in sales and operations before Dropbox brought him on in 2012.

That company had been the king of cloud storage with a hundred million users but had yet to push into the business market. Egan won over big clients such as Under Armour and NBCUniversal, helping establish the cash flow that Dropbox needed to go public. He left in 2016 amid a flurry of executive departures.

Egan spent the last three and a half years at Atlassian, the $63 billion maker of collaboration software like Jira and Trello. That company exploded during the pandemic because of the rapid adoption of cloud services, though growth has slowed as software sales cycles broadly became longer and more expensive in a weak economy. Egan said he was able to control churn by getting "closer to the customer" and helping them realize the financial return on their investment.

Following years of softening software spending, the outlook is brightening, according to Egan's colleague, Vashee. Startups such as Jasper, which develops workflow tools for marketing teams, and Superhuman, an email app that drafts replies and summarizes email, are seeing traction selling into the business market, said Vashee, who's invested in both.

Enterprises are investing in AI tools as they recognize the long-term efficiencies and competitive advantages that software can provide. Recent leaps in the field and the shrinking cost of computing have also amplified their interest.

"What a lot of those companies have realized, and what the broader ecosystem has come to terms with, is that the real opportunity is in the more focused enterprise applications of AI," Vashee said. That has forced some companies to evolve their sales strategy, a task that's squarely in Egan's wheelhouse.

In his new role, Egan will help source and close new investments and work with portfolio companies to strategize how to scale faster and better. He adds to the firm's bench of former operators in venture partner roles, including Tamar Yehoshua, who is also a product leader at buzzy enterprise search startup Glean.

In addition to Egan, IVP has poached Zeya Young from Andreessen Horowitz and Miloni Madan Presler from Summit Partners, the firm tells Business Insider exclusively. Yang focuses on artificial intelligence, enterprise software, and healthcare companies, while Madan Presler invests in enterprise software and infrastructure companies. The firm is also hiring a partner in its London office.

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The fires in the Los Angeles region have destroyed thousands of homes and killed at least 24 people.