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Tesla's latest decline could be one for the history books, JPMorgan analysts say

Elon Musk
Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration has some analysts concerned that the CEO isn't spending enough time running his companies.

Apu Gomes/Getty Images

  • About 48% of Tesla's market capitalization was wiped out in a matter of months.
  • The decline comes amid sagging sales and concerns around leadership, namely its CEO Elon Musk.
  • JPMorgan analysts said they couldn't find "anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry."

Tesla has lost so much value in such a short period of time that JPMorgan analysts said they couldn't think of another comparable moment in automotive history.

"We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," they wrote, adding that the closest example was when Japanese and Korean car brands lost sales amid "diplomatic disputes" with China in 2012 and 2017, respectively.

The JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday that those historical cases were "confined to a single market, whereas the decline in Tesla sales in 2025 is not specific to any one nation or geography."

JPMorgan analysts cut their price target on Tesla by about 41% from $230.58 to $135, lowering guidance on vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2025 to about 355,000 β€” an 8% year-over-year decrease from the first quarter of 2024.

Between December and Wednesday after trading hours, Tesla lost nearly 49% of its market cap, seeing its peak value of $1.54 trillion from the end of last year fall to about $777 billion.

This steep drop comes as Tesla experiences a global decline in sales and branding issues stemming from its chief executive's politics.

For a moment, Elon Musk's big bet on Donald Trump seemed to pay off. Tesla was the only EV company to see itsΒ stock surgeΒ after the president's electoral victory in November. The underlying assumption appeared to be that Musk's company could benefit if the Tesla CEO had the ear of the new administration and guided the White House's efforts to slash government spending.Β 

Now, that assumption is being challenged in some analysts' latest guidance, which notes a possible headwind in demand due to Musk's work with the Trump administration.

"Mr. Musk's work with the Department of Government Efficiency has proven controversial domestically, and while as many members of the political right may be pleased as those on the left are displeased, the effect on Tesla sales seems nevertheless negative," JPMorgan analysts wrote.

In recent weeks, Tesla showrooms across the US have seen protests and a string of vandalism incidents. President Trump has rushed to Tesla's defense and said he'd consider labeling the perpetrators domestic terrorists.

Outside brand reputation, some analysts are also concerned that Musk's focus on political affairs is again distracting the CEO from his core businesses.

"After all, the simultaneous decline in both Tesla pricing and unit volume expectations did coincide with his takeover of X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter," JPMorgan analysts noted.

Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note on Monday that Tesla shares have fallen due to "sales data, negative brand sentiment, and market de-grossing" but still see a buying opportunity for the company.

"Today, with the stock down 50%, our investor conversations are focused on management distraction, brand degradation, and lost auto sales," analysts said.

A spokesperson for Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

Despite the company's losses, Tesla remains the most valuable car company in the world.

Second to Tesla is legacy automaker Toyota, which has a $292 billion market cap.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted several "catalysts" in the company's pipeline, including Tesla's robotaxi, expected to hit Austin roads later this summer, and another demonstration of Optimus, the humanoid robot anticipated before the end of the year.

However, expectations forΒ Tesla's delivery timelinesΒ may have to be tempered, given that the CEO has a history of missing his own. deadlines.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Quantum stocks rebound from dip after new 'supremacy' announcement

D-Wave's annealing quantum computing chip
D-Wave on March 12 announced it had achieved quantum supremacy with its annealing chip.

D-Wave

  • D-Wave on Wednesday announced it had achieved quantum supremacy with its annealing chip.
  • Quantum stocks spiked after the news, which suggests quantum machines can outperform classical tech.
  • Wednesday's gains helped the industry rebound from a dip spurred by skepticism from Jensen Huang.

Quantum stocks spiked on Wednesday after Canadian company D-Wave said it had achieved the elusive industry benchmark of "quantum supremacy," suggesting its specialized annealing chip can outperform classical computers in certain tasks.

"It's the holy grail for quantum computing. It's what everybody aspires to and is the reason there's so much confusion around quantum supremacy versus quantum advantage versus quantum utility because supremacy β€” true supremacy β€” hadn't been achieved yet," Alan Barrett, D-Wave's CEO, told Business Insider. "And so the industry was coming up with terms that were easier to achieve, but this is that demonstration of true supremacy, and we're very excited."

The corresponding market surge β€”Β which saw D-Wave's stock spike over 8% by market close and sent other quantum companies like IonQ up over 16% β€”Β helped the industry recover from a dip following recent skepticism from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

In January, Huang suggested the industry is at least 20 years away from quantum computing being "very useful," sending quantum stocks tumbling.

While D-Wave's announcement didn't fully claw back the losses that followed Huang's remarks, it sent a jolt through the market and made waves in the industry surrounding the burgeoning technology.

Quantum computing is rapidly evolving, with Big Tech players like IBM and Google racing to scale up the devices enough to be commercially useful. While advancement has long been slowed by deeply technical problems involving error correction and scalability, researchers say cracking the code to unlock quantum computing's potential could help discover new drugs, develop new chemical compounds, orΒ break encryption methods, among other outcomes.

That is why D-Wave's announcement, which follows new quantum chip debuts from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft,Β is such a big deal. The Canadian company says its annealing quantum computer outperformed one of the world's most powerful classical supercomputers when solving complex simulation calculations related to magnetic materials discovery.

The company says its quantum computer performed a magnetic materials simulation in just minutes β€” one that would take a classical supercomputer built with GPU clusters nearly one million years and more than the world's annual electricity consumption to solve.

Quantum annealing vs. gate-based approaches

D-Wave's approach is not without its skeptics. The research paper published by the company's researchers in the journal Science stopped short of describing its findings as "quantum supremacy," instead using the milder term "quantum advantage" to outline its findings.

Eric Chitambar, a researcher of quantum information science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said D-Wave's annealing approach has drawbacks β€”Β like narrower practical applications and reduced fault tolerance, meaning it's not likely to produce a full-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer.

The narrow scope of the annealing method's potential applications is why the other major players in the quantum space have invested heavily in a gate-based approach. This approach relies on quantum logic gates as the foundation of quantum circuits, similar to how classical logic gates operate for conventional circuits. It has the potential for broader applications despite slower progress in development than the annealing approach.

"But even if they don't have something that is going to be a universal, scalable quantum computer, that doesn't mean there isn't value there," Chitambar said of D-Wave's announcement.

Harley Johnson, the chief executive for Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park, told Business Insider that certain types of computers are better at solving specific problems. D-Wave's announcement is a prime example of a narrowly tailored machine proving its utility.

But now that quantum computing is moving beyond proving its commercial value, Johnson said, it's time to focus on maximizing the return on the massive investment that has brought the quantum industry this far.

"The thinking about quantum advantage, or quantum supremacy, needs to take into account the additional information about economic advantage," Johnson said. "What does it cost me to get to a solution on a conventional computer versus on a quantum computer? Can I solve it more cheaply than I could solve it on a conventional computer? I think that's the next really important way to think about quantum advantage."

Read the original article on Business Insider

Meta just scored a win against a new book written by a former exec

Meta and Facebook logos
Meta won an emergency arbitration decision that bars the author of "Careless People" from promoting it.

Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images

  • Meta won an emergency arbitration decision regarding the book "Careless People."
  • The decision, in part, bars Sarah Wynn-Williams from promoting the book.
  • A Meta spokesperson said the "false and defamatory book should never have been published."

Meta just scored a win against a new memoir written by a former Facebook executive.

"Careless People," which was published Tuesday, was written by Sarah Wynn-Williams, who worked at Facebook from 2011 to 2017.

Meta on Wednesday shared an emergency arbitrator's decision that bars the author from promoting the book, which has already generated headlines. The ruling was issued by the International Centre for Dispute Resolution, which is the international division of the American Arbitration Association.

The arbitrator also wrote that the decision bars Wynn-Williams from making disparaging comments about Meta or from further publishing the book to the extent she has control over it.

"This ruling affirms that Sarah Wynn Williams' false and defamatory book should never have been published," a Meta spokesperson said in a statement to Business Insider.

At the time of writing, the book was still available for purchase from retailers like Amazon and Barnes and Noble.

Wynn-Williams and the publisher Macmillan did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider outside regular business hours.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Trump tariffs spark "Boycott USA" backlash against U.S. goods

President Trump's tariffs that targeted Canada, Mexico and China before being expanded to all steel and aluminum imports have not only triggered trade wars, they're also leading to a "Boycott USA" global consumer backlash against U.S. goods.

The big picture: "Boycott USA" has spiked on Google in the past seven days, with four EU countries and Canada topping the search list and multiple countries have large Facebook groups dedicated to boycotting U.S. products.


Zoom in: One of the biggest regions for this pushback is Denmark, where Trump's talk of taking over its semi-autonomous territory Greenland has provoked anger.

  • The Danish "Boycott goods from the U.S." Facebook page has nearly 73,000 members and Denmark had the second-highest search number of searches for "Boycott USA" this week after Luxembourg.
  • In neighboring Sweden, the fourth-biggest "Boycott USA" search region on Google, a Facebook page that says using a U.S. platform is "the best weapon" in the drive against U.S. goods has nearly 80,000 members.
  • France ranked at no.3 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches. The country's "BOYCOTT USA: Buy French and European!" Facebook page has more than 20,000 members.

Canada is another top backlash spot due to Trump making the closest ally of the U.S. a top tariff target and his desire to make the North American country the 51st state, ranking at no.5 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches.

  • Several Facebook groups have emerged amid a drive for Canadian-made products and "Canada is not for sale" hats have taken off, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford among those wearing the headwear.
  • Ford announced several measures against the tariffs, including canceling a $100-million contract with Musk's Starlink.
  • The CEO of Jack Daniels' parent company said the Liquor Control Board of Ontario's decision to remove U.S.-made spirits from the province's shelves was "worse than a tariff."
  • A survey of 3,310 respondents last month found 85% of Canadians plan to replace U.S. products or have already done so in the face of Trump's tariff threats. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
  • The U.S. Travel Association warned of the impacts of tariffs, saying a 10% drop in Canadian travel could cause "$2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses." The number of Canadians taking road trips to the U.S. fell 23% last month compared to the previous year, per Statistics Canada.
Screenshot: Ontario Premier Doug Ford/X

Zoom out: Analysts have expressed concern that Tesla's plummeting sales may be linked to CEO Elon Musk's closeness to Trump as a mega-donor and in his role as senior adviser to the president, working with the administration's federal cost-cutting team DOGE β€”Β though it's too early to assess whether this is having a direct impact on the EV company.

  • Trump said on Truth Social this week "Radical Left Lunatics, as they often do, are trying to illegally and collusively boycott Tesla."
  • There was a very public boycott in classic music, from German violinist Christian Tetzlaff β€” who told the New York Times he was canceling a spring tour of the U.S. in protest at Trump's policies. A White House spokesperson told the NYT in response: "America first."

Meanwhile, Norwegian fuel firm Haltbakk Bunkers said it would no longer be a supplier due to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's treatment at the White House.

  • CEO Gunnar Gran told Norwegian newspaper VG the company's action was "symbolic" because it doesn't have a fixed contract with the Navy.
  • Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: How Trump's tariffs will impact everyday Americans

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details on Ontario's response and a screenshot of a post by provincial Premier Doug Ford.

Scoop: Trump plans "law and order" speech at Justice Department on Friday

President Trump is planning an unusual visit to the Justice Department on Friday to speak about his administration's plans on "restoring law and order," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Trump's appearance will be the latest illustration of how he's taken a direct interest in the work of the DOJ, which he has stacked with allies while purging dozens of people who were deemed disloyal.


  • Those dismissed from the department since Trump took office included officials who worked on the department's two criminal prosecutions of Trump between his presidencies.

Zoom out: Trump, who was indicted four times after leaving office, spent much of the 2024 campaign railing against what he called the "weaponization" of the justice system.

  • After winning 2024 election, Trump nominated Pam Bondi to be attorney general and Kash Patel to be FBI director, both of them longtime loyalists. Todd Blanche, one of Trump's personal attorneys, was named deputy attorney general.
  • Trump last month said he had ordered the firings of U.S. attorneys appointed by his predecessor, Joe Biden. "We must 'clean house' IMMEDIATELY, and restore confidence. America's Golden Age must have a fair Justice System," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Most presidents historically have maintained at least the appearance of a Justice Department that operated independently of their political concerns.

  • Trump accused Biden of using DOJ to target him, but Biden said he made a point of not getting involved in Trump's felony cases. Biden didn't stop the department from prosecuting his son, Hunter, on gun and tax charges β€” but pardoned Hunter during the final weeks of his presidency.
  • Trump has long been fixated on the DOJ. During his first term he fired then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, whom he blasted for recusing himself from overseeing a special counsel's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
  • During the final days of his term, Trump clashed with then-Attorney General Bill Barr after Barr said the department had found no evidence of significant fraud in the 2020 election.

Bondi and Patel are expected to be present for Trump's visit on Friday, according to a person familiar with the plans.

What they're saying: "President Trump will visit the Department of Justice to give remarks on restoring law and order, removing violent criminals from our communities, and ending the weaponization of justice against Americans for their political leanings," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

  • "President Trump's historic visit to the Department of Justice will signify another promise made and kept."

House Dems press for an 11th hour shutdown re-vote

House Democrats are mounting a sudden push for a last-minute vote on an alternative to House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) bill to avert a federal government shutdown.

Why it matters: The effort dovetails with pressure some in the party are placing on key Senate Democrats to reject Johnson's 6-month stopgap bill and force Republicans to the table.


  • The bill passed the House despite all but one House Democrat voting against it β€” but Republicans will need support from at least eight Senate Democrats for it to pass the upper chamber. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is already a "no" on the bill.
  • "Our message to the Senate is ... stand with us," Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), the House minority whip, said at House Democrats' retreat on Wednesday.

Driving the news: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Clark and Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said Wednesday in a joint statement they would "strongly support" a four-week stopgap bill.

  • "House Republicans should get back to Washington immediately so that we can take up a short-term measure, pass it on a bipartisan basis and avoid a Trump-inspired government shutdown," they said.
  • House Democrats have demanded that any longer-term spending measure include language that constrains DOGE's ability to cut congressionally authorized spending.

State of play: Senate Democrats left a closed-door meeting Wednesday signaling that they will not provide the votes for the bill to overcome the chamber's 60-vote filibuster threshold.

  • Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters that Democrats are pressing for opportunities to amend the bill.
  • "There are not the votes right now to pass it," he said.

What we're hearing: House Democrats have been advised to keep their schedules flexible in case they are called on short notice to vote on a replacement measure, multiple Democratic lawmakers told Axios.

  • Said one person familiar with the matter: "Most House Democrats remain in the DC-area, and all have been advised to keep their schedules flexible so they can be present to vote on short notice."
  • Many House Democrats are at their caucus' annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia β€” roughly an hour drive to Capitol Hill.
  • House Democrats' messaging arm is advising members to say on social media that they are willing to return to Capitol Hill this week to vote, according to guidance viewed by Axios.

Axios' Hans Nichols contributed reporting for this story.

Scoop: Trump Medicare center to cancel some payment trials

The Trump Medicare innovation center plans to cancel a half dozen trials to change the way health providers are paid by the end of the year as it aligns itself with the goals of the Make America Healthy Again movement, multiple people familiar with the plans told Axios.

The big picture: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation leadership said they want to focus on models that are likely to meet criteria for expansion and that promote the goals of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s public health agenda, said a person with knowledge who was granted anonymity to speak freely.


What they're saying: CMMI "is committed to testing β€” and eventually scaling β€” innovative payment models that meet the statutory goals of reducing program spending while maintaining or improving quality of care," a CMS spokesperson said.

  • The center has completed a data-driven review of models based on their statutory mandate and identified some that will conclude as scheduled and others that should be terminated, the spokesperson said.
  • CMS estimated the changes will save taxpayers almost $750 million, though it did not specify how.

State of play: The innovation center will end two payment models focused on alternative ways to pay for primary care β€” Making Care Primary and Primary Care First β€” and an experiment to encourage at-home dialysis and kidney transplants known as End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices.

  • "Primary care remains a foundational component of the Center's strategy," CMMI wrote in a fact sheet on Wednesday.
  • "The early termination ... does not signal a retreat from the center's support of primary care providers, but rather a need to focus on different approaches that are consistent with the CMS Innovation Center's statutory mandate and produce savings."
  • CMMI will also end the Maryland Total Cost of Care Model one year early. The model builds on an alternative payment structure Maryland has used for over a decade now in which hospitals in the state get a fixed amount of revenue from payers each year.
  • Maryland has already been chosen to participate in a broader total cost of care model known as AHEAD starting in 2026. CMMI plans to continue that model, a source familiar told Axios.

CMMI will also not continue with two projects that had been announced but not yet started. One would offer $2 generic drugs to Medicare beneficiaries. A second aimed to incentivize drug manufacturers to complete confirmatory trials of accelerated approval drugs.

  • The center said Wednesday that it is also considering options to reduce the size or make other changes to a model aimed at integrating care for children.
  • An experiment to redesign care delivery in Vermont and one aimed at improving care for pregnant and postpartum Medicaid beneficiaries with opioid use disorder are already slated to conclude at the end of 2025.

Between the lines: CMMI said in a fact sheet that it has determined its other models can continue, either as-is or with modifications.

Context: The innovation center was created through the Affordable Care Act to test different ways to provide and reimburse for health services. It runs limited-time pilots aimed at improving patient care and lowering costs, with a goal of adapting successful policies for Medicare and Medicaid as a whole.

  • The center currently operates 23 models. CMMI gets $10 billion in mandatory funding each decade to develop, test and evaluate different experiments.

Some of the models set for cancellation have not yet shown to improve care or decrease costs.

  • The model aimed at improving renal disease care has not affected health outcomes or Medicare spending, per its latest evaluation.
  • Primary Care First, which tests performance-based payment for advanced primary care services, has had "minimal effects on hospitalizations and Medicare expenditures," according to its most recent evaluation, though the report says that's to be expected at the model's current stage.

Yes, but: The Maryland Total Cost of Care Model saved a net $689 million for Medicare in its first three years and reduced hospital admissions.

Reality check: It's common for a new administration to end or modify some Medicare payment projects early in its term.

  • But the back-and-forth can make it hard for providers to fully invest in participating in these payment experiments.

What we're watching: The innovation center plans to announce a new strategy "based on guiding principles to make Americans healthier by preventing disease through evidence-based practices, empowering people with information to make better decisions, and driving choice and competition," the CMS spokesperson said.

Voters disapprove of Trump's economic policies, polls show

President Trump is facing increasing headwinds from everyday Americans when it comes to his economic policies, which have sent markets tumbling and sparked worries of a recession.

Why it matters: Trump's re-election campaign hinged on lowering prices, but voters are beginning to notice his policies β€” from a trade war with the U.S.' closes trading partners to mass deportations β€” are expected to do the opposite.


The latest: A New CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday found that only 45% of 1,206 Americans surveyed approved of Trump's job as president so far, with 54% disapproving. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

  • Even more bruising, 56% of voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy β€” higher than at any point during his first term, per CNN.
  • 61% of people surveyed said they disapproved of Trump's handling of tariffs, while 52% said they disapproved of his handling of the federal budget.

Zoom in: A new Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters out Tuesday found Trump's disapproval rating at 45%, two points higher than it was just a week before, when the same poll was conducted. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

  • Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement that the poll results showed Trump's "initial 'honeymoon phase' seems to be coming to an end.'"
  • Trump's "true challenge will be how voters perceive their financial future," he added, noting that voters who "disapprove of his handling of the economy, believe tariffs will hurt economic growth, and are skeptical of his cryptocurrency policy."

The big picture: The ramifications of Trump's policies are already rippling outwards and impacting businesses and communities.

  • The National Federation of Independent Business's uncertainty index for small businesses rose to it's second-highest reading ever last month since the 1980s, and many small businesses report raising prices, MarketWatch reported.
  • In fact, a slew of small business owners have spoken out about the detrimental impacts Trump's tariffs will have on their ability to maintain their businesses.
  • Delta, Southwest and American airlines all warned this week that their first-quarter revenue or earnings forecasts will fall below expectations due to weaker consumer demand.

Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ben Berkowitz: Investors are beginning to realize the first-term "Trump put" β€” the notion that he'd change policy if markets reacted negatively β€” isn't in evidence this time around.

  • There's a greater willingness by his team to let whatever happens happen, which is an adjustment to past Trump economic practice that's coming as a shock to some people.

Go deeper: The Trump bump becomes a Trump slump

Inflation cools for now, but Trump tariffs could make relief fleeting

February finally brought a bit of inflation relief following a stretch of elevated readings β€” a sign that the underlying backdrop for the economy is one of diminishing price pressures.

Why it matters: Disinflation returned in February after months of data that appeared to show progress had stalled. But that relief could be fleeting if widening trade wars reignite higher costs.


  • This is the conundrum for keeping tabs on the Trump economy. Even quick-turn monthly data like the Consumer Price Index looks stale against a rapidly shifting policy backdrop.
  • Still, further tariffs will happen with inflation on a downward trajectory β€” which beats the alternative.

State of play: The data "confirms that despite the idiosyncratic price bumpiness, economic fundamentals were and remain disinflationary," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a note.

  • "Looking ahead, however, tariffs, confusion around trade policy and tighter immigration policy mean the risks to inflation are [tilted] to the upside."

By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, after a 0.5% spike in January. Over the 12 months through February, CPI rose 2.8% β€” the lowest since November, when inflation data started to heat up.

  • Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose at a similar monthly pace, with a 3.1% gain in the year ending in February. That was the lowest since the inflation shock took off nearly four years ago.

Between the lines: There was a sliver of good news for consumers in the supermarket. Grocery prices overall were flat last month, especially if you shop anywhere other than the egg aisle.

  • Overall food at home prices were flat, and dairy, fruit, and vegetable prices were down.
  • That was enough to offset another huge jump in egg prices, which were up 10% in February. Over the past year, prices are up 59%.

The big picture: The Federal Reserve wants proof that inflation is moving "sustainably" lower, as chair Jerome Powell said in a speech last week.

  • Inflation remains too high for the Fed's comfort. Over the last three months, core inflation is up an annualized 3.6%, down a bit from 3.8% in January, but well above its 2% target.

What to watch: The Fed is assessing how White House policy uncertainty will ripple across the economy β€” including President Trump's stop-and-start tariff policies that have roiled the stock market and prompted economic growth fears.

  • The Fed will likely keep rates on hold when its two-day policy meeting concludes next week.
  • Bond yields spiked following the CPI data, and futures now put nearly 60% odds on a rate cut in June, per CME's FedWatch tool, up slightly from Tuesday. Odds of at least two rate cuts by year-end top 88%.

What they're saying: "[Wednesday's] CPI report shows inflation is declining and the economy is moving in the right direction under President Trump," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement.

Here's Steven Mnuchin's take on those Trump 2.0 recession fears

Steven T. Mnuchin at the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions.
Steven Mnuchin, now a founder and managing partner at Liberty Capital, doesn't think there will be a recession.

David Swanson/REUTERS

  • Steven Mnuchin says he doesn't think there will be a recession amid fears and market volatility.
  • Consumer confidence is on the decline while stock prices grew more volatile over Trump's tariffs.
  • People may be nostalgic for Mnuchin as a force of reassurance during the first Trump administration.

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that the market may be "overreacting a bit" to policies rolled out by the new Trump administration β€” and that he doesn't think there will be a recession.

"I don't think the outlook looks like we're going to have a recession," said Mnuchin on CNBC's "Squawk Box" when addressing recession fears and the recent stock market decline. "I don't think anybody should look at what's a natural, healthy correction of these indexes as indicating that the economy's in trouble."

"The president has always believed in adding tariffs, so I think that's what we're seeing in the market today," he added.

His comments come amid growing concerns over trade tensions and economic uncertainty brought on by President Donald Trump's shifting tariff policy.

Over the past two months, confidence has declined among consumers and small business owners, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow tracker predicts a contraction in the first quarter. Stock markets have also seen more volatility as the S&P 500 fell 9.4% from its peak in mid-February, and the Nasdaq Composite erased all postelection gains and tumbled below November 2024 levels.

Mnuchin is now running Liberty Strategic Capital and said he won't be joining Trump's cabinet again, but the current recession scare over Trump 2.0 may be making people nostalgic for him.

Business Insider's Emily Stewart points out that Mnuchin was the Wall Street whisperer and a force of reassurance during the first Trump administration, who was credited for keeping people calm about the debt ceiling and for striking a deal with Congress to deliver much-needed economic relief during COVID.

Stewart wrote:

With the markets currently in meltdown mode, largely thanks to Trump, Mnuchin (or a Mnuchin type) is someone many on Wall Street would very much like to have back. They'd like a Mnuchin-esque Money Dad to come tuck them in at night and tell them not to worry about big bad tariffs or a potential recession hiding underneath the bed. In the absence of such a figure, investors are facing a Trump 2.0 who isn't as concerned about their feelings β€” or, more importantly, holdings β€” as they'd hoped.

Trump addressed tariffs on Tuesday at a regular meeting of the Business Roundtable, a nonpartisan Washington-based economic advocacy group comprising more than 200 CEOs, like Apple's Tim Cook and JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon. He said that "hundred of billions of dollars are being invested" because factories are moving back to the US, and warned that tariffs "may go up."

Read the original article on Business Insider

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