• Big Tech companies have been waiting for consumers to embrace face computers for years.
• It probably won't happen this year, analysts at IDC predict: They think the shipments for those devices will fall this year.
• But IDC, and Meta, are bullish about the near-term prospects for the company's Ray-Ban glasses.

You know how Big Tech companies keep coming out with new versions of face computers, even though consumers don't seem that interested in them?

So here's an interesting data point: An analyst report that predicts the market for goggles like Apple Vision Pro and Meta's Quest line will actually shrink this year.

International Data Corp. projects that shipments for augmented reality and virtual reality headsets will decline by 12% in 2025 — from 7.5 million units in 2024 to 6.6 million this year.

That's a striking decrease given that IDC and other prognosticators have been overly optimistic about the market for those goggles for years. But IDC says it's still optimistic about the market, and projects that it will roar back in 2026, with 87% growth and more than 11.2 million units shipped.

And if you really have a lot invested in the idea that wearing electronics on your face is something lots of people will do, consider this: IDC's forecast does not include Meta's line of computerized Ray-Ban glasses, which have become a surprising hit — or at minimum, they have sold more units than Meta expected. That's because IDC is only counting devices that have a display in them, IDC researcher Jitesh Ubrani tells me. A Meta rep declined to comment.

That also means a new line of Ray-Bans — ones that reportedly do have a display built into them, like this model Bloomberg thinks could be on sale by the end of the year, and cost between $1,000 and $1,400 — are counted in IDC's projections.

Ubrani isn't sold on the market for the more sophisticated Ray-Bans yet, in part because of the price. Meanwhile, he's pretty bullish about "regular" internet glasses like the Meta Ray-Bans, which can connect to the internet but don't have any display screen. He thinks the market for those devices will grow, from 2.7 million in 2024 to 5.5 million in 2025.

Mark Zuckerberg thinks this is a big year for Ray-Bans, too. The company has been talking them up more on earnings calls, and in January, the Meta CEO said 2025 could be a "defining year" for the tech — while acknowledging that the breakthrough may not happen this year, after all.

What does any of that mean? I'm going to take the easy way out and give you a shrug emoji here.

I've tried a bunch of the devices that are on the market now — like Apple's Vision Pro — and a demo of one that might come to market one day — Meta's Orion — and I've generally come away impressed with the tech. But I'm still waiting for someone to figure out how to make these things small enough and cheap enough that I'd be able to justify the purchase and feel OK wearing them for extended use. And then I'd have to figure out how I would use these in daily life, once the novelty wears off. My hunch is that I'm not the only one.

• Have you bought a virtual reality or augmented reality headset?
• If so, you're part of a small group of consumers — despite repeated predictions that the market will boom.
• Meta alone has lost $60 billion on this tech over five years. It's going to keep spending, says Mark Zuckerberg.

Mark Zuckerberg has spent tens of billions of dollars chasing it. Some of the biggest names in tech, including Apple, Microsoft, Google and Sony, have poured in billions more. For years.

But so far, no one has nailed it.

Maybe one day wearing computers on our heads will be something many of us do all the time, instead of a novelty we try a few times and then forget. We're not there yet.

It doesn't matter whether you're talking about super high-end devices like the Apple Vision Pro or low-priced novelties, like early editions of Snap's Spectacles. Or whether you're discussing virtual reality devices that create an entirely new world around the user or augmented reality headsets that let you see the outside world as well as digital images. All of these devices have yet to take off. Consumer demand isn't budging.

That hasn't stopped the tech industry from trying. Or deterred people around the tech world from predicting that one day, this will be a huge market.

You can see this spelled out in a new chart from analyst and investor Matthew Ball, as part of a new report he's released on the problems in the video gaming business. This one tracks the gap between projected headset sales, as estimated by International Data Corp., and actual sales.

As you can see, while IDC has been continually bullish about VR and AR headsets, consumer interest has lagged far behind. No matter what's on offer, at whatever price, these devices seem mired in the 10 million units a year or less range.

That's not to suggest that Zuckerberg — who has racked up more than $60 billion in losses on this tech over the past five years, filings show — is chasing after the market because of an IDC estimate. It just shows you that for close to a decade, the industry has been excited about this stuff, while many consumers remain unimpressed.

I talked to Jitesh Ubrani, the IDC researcher who works on this stuff, about the gap between his company's projections — which, to be fair, are projections — and reality.

He said his shop has become less optimistic over time about the market, which you can see reflected on the right side of the chart.

"Everyone is a bit more realistic about these expectations," he said, noting that the market for the tech has been "notably volatile" over the past few years, as big players like Microsoft and Google temper their interest in headsets. Meta PR declined to comment.

In his public comments, Zuckerberg has been telling investors that he'll continue chasing virtual and augmented reality tech, and that they should expect to see more losses in the future.

For him, the stakes seem quite clear: He wants people to use a new computing platform instead of, or in addition to, phones. And he wants to be able to interact with them on that platform without Google or Apple getting involved, as they do with their mobile platforms. And if all of that happens — meaning that Zuckerberg essentially creates the next iPhone — then burning tens of billions on R&D will seem like a good bet.

Meanwhile, Meta does seem to be making progress. The Orion glasses Zuckerberg showed off last fall — but isn't selling yet — are super-impressive. I've tried them, and I could definitely imagine using some version of them if they were way cheaper, and worked as advertised.

But those are big ifs, and it's possible Meta never figures out how to make these things at scale, and in a way that will sell hundreds of millions of units per year — like Apple does with its phones. But someone, somewhere, will keep insisting that the headset of the future is just around the corner.

• Apple launched new products in 2024, including the Vision Pro and AI-powered iPhone 16.
• It faced challenges in China with iPhone sales and antitrust issues in the US and Europe.
• Apple also introduced Apple Intelligence at WWDC, marking its entry into the GenAI market.

It's been an eventful year for Apple.

The tech giant launched a brand new hardware product, made its official entrance into generative artificial intelligence, and added a new iPhone generation — all in the span of 12 months.

It's also faced questions about CEO succession, challenges in one of its largest markets, and criticism about being behind in the AI arms race compared to some of the industry's fiercest players. Meantime, it's been under antitrust scrutiny from both US and EU authorities.

"2024 has been a year of notable highs and lows for Apple as it expanded into mixed reality and AI while navigating shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics," Jacob Bourne, tech analyst at Business Insider's sister company EMARKETER, said.

Apple got off to a rocky start this year. Its stock got two analyst downgrades in early January, with bankers citing worries about poor iPhone sales in China. Still, it celebrated wins in the services department of its business and partnered with OpenAI to bring ChatGPT to new iPhones. It explored new territory with the Apple Vision Pro and upgraded company staples, including iPads and AirPods.

Here's a look back at Apple's 2024.

There was trouble in China

Apple started 2024 with struggles in its important Greater China region — a trend that continued. Analysts called sales of the iPhone 15 in China "lackluster" as competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi stepped up their competition in the local smartphone market.

It showed throughout Apple's earnings in 2024. Although the company beat revenue estimates in its fiscal fourth-quarter, sales in China missed and dropped year over year.

Still, Apple CEO Tim Cook said there are "positive signs" in the region during the fiscal Q4 earnings call on October 31. Cook took frequent trips to China this year — at least three times, as of November — amid fears that Donald Trump's potential tariffs will affect the country that makes a majority of Apple's iPhones, AirPods, Macs, and iPads.

"China's just been a disappointment in '24, full stop," Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said.

Apple launched the Vision Pro in February

Apple launched its first headset, the Vision Pro, in February. The mixed reality device retails for $3,500, making it one of Apple's priciest products to date.

The headset was met with mixed reactions. Its uses are limited, and it was unclear if the tech was for gamers or professionals. Months after it released, Cook told The Wall Street Journal that the Vision Pro is for "people who want to have tomorrow's technology today."

"At $3,500, it's not a mass-market product," Cook said. "Right now, it's an early-adopter product."

Apple is reportedly slowing down its Vision Pro production and is instead eyeing a more affordable version of the headset.

It was hit with a DOJ lawsuit in March

The US Department of Justice accused Apple of maintaining an illegal monopoly on the smartphone market in an antitrust lawsuit. The DOJ alleged the iPhone maker was involved in "delaying, degrading, or outright blocking" rival technology. Apple denied the allegations.

The suit said the company "repeatedly responded" to competitive threats by "making it harder or more expensive for its users and developers to leave than by making it more attractive for them to stay."

Apple asked a federal judge to dismiss the lawsuit in August, saying the government's argument includes speculation. US District Court Judge Julien Xavier Neals will have to decide whether or not the case will go to trial.

Neals' decision could come as early as January, Bloomberg reported.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Apple was fined about $2 billion related to its App Store and was subject to other competition concerns in the region.

Apple rolled out new iPads

As OpenAI, Google, and others announced updates and demonstrated the power of their new AI assistants, Apple introduced new iPads in May.

The latest iPad Pro models are the first to have OLED display; Cook and Co. unveiled them at Apple's "Let Loose" event. Cook said it was "the biggest day for iPad since its introduction."

Although the launch came as Apple watchers waited for a bigger AI announcement, iPads performed well for Apple in Q3.

Apple Intelligence was finally introduced at WWDC

The world was introduced to Apple Intelligence at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

Apple's official debut into the AI wars, which have escalated since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in 2022, was the "biggest story" of the year, William Kerwin, a technology analyst at Morningstar, said.

The hype around Apple Intelligence was instant. Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, said it would usher in a "golden upgrade cycle" for iPhones. Apple said it'd be a big part of the iOS 18 software update too, though Apple Intelligence is only available on iPhone 15 Pro models or later.

The company made some lofty promises at WWDC, and plans to deliver on them after the initial rollout in October and through 2025, although not all the features touted have launched yet. So far, US iPhone users have gotten access to "Writing Tools," AI-generated emojis, and ChatGPT through Siri. The company had been criticized for its late entry to the AI scene.

"They caught up by partnering and by adding AI to something only Apple can do," Munster said.

Meanwhile, the company is reportedly exploring ways it can bring Apple Intelligence to Chinese iPhone owners. Apple will have to partner with a local company if it wants to deliver AI to its most important international market.

The first AI iPhone launched

Apple announced its first iPhone "built from the ground up to deliver Apple Intelligence" at its "Glowtime" event in September.

The company faced slowing iPhone sales in the quarters leading up to the launch; the new AI-enabled iPhone 16 was expected by some to be the boost it needed. It released without Apple Intelligence, though that was made available through a later iOS update. It did come with a new camera control button and some software updates.

The phones start at $999 for the iPhone 16 Pro and $1,199 for the Pro Max model. Although a golden upgrade cycle hasn't happened yet, analysts still have high expectations for the next year of iPhones.

"We believe iPhone 16 has kicked off a multi-year supercycle for Apple as the AI Revolution comes to the consumer," Ives said in an analyst note.

It scrapped some projects along the way

Among the new launches in 2024, Apple also axed some ideas that were said to be in the pipeline.

Bloomberg reported in December that Apple would no longer work on building a subscription service for iPhones. The team working to make iPhone ownership possible through monthly fees and annual upgrades was reassigned to other projects, according to the article.

The tech giant also shut down its buy now, pay later service, Apple Pay Later, in June, instead partnering with Klarna to bring its offering to Apple Pay, The Verge reported.

In April, Apple filed documents outlining that it planned to cut more than 600 employees working on projects related to screens and its electric car. Before that, the company reportedly told 2,000 employees that it would wind down its multi-year efforts to make an electric car.

Still, canceling the Apple Car to reassign talent to its Apple Intelligence efforts was part of a "one-two combo" that helped the company catch up in AI, Munster said.

• Apple's Vision Pro headsets went on sale in February. They have not taken the world by storm.
• Apple is reportedly looking to Sony for help via a plan to bring Sony's gaming controllers to Apple's devices.
• But unlike other headsets, the Vision Pro isn't really built for gaming. So, this seems unlikely to solve Apple's long-term Vision Pro problem.

Maybe, one day, the Apple Vision Pro — or a future version of the Apple Vision Pro — will end up being a huge hit for Apple.

Right now, it seems anything but.

As we've noted multiple times, there are several indicators that Apple's "mixed reality" goggles aren't a breakthrough product. Most important: There doesn't seem to be a killer app that creates a use case for the Vision Pro, which starts at $3,500.

Apple has always positioned the device, which launched in February, as the first step for "spatial computing" — not the end state. Still, it's hard to imagine it didn't have higher hopes for the initial product.

Now Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports that both sales and usage are underwhelming. He says Apple has sold fewer than 500,000 units of the device, and that "a large number of Vision Pro buyers (those who haven't returned it) aren't using the product as much as Apple anticipated, according to internal data gathered by the company."

What could change all of that? Perhaps a cheaper, lighter version, which could hit the market next year. But Apple is also reportedly looking outside the company for help, by integrating third-party controllers for the device.

Gurman reports that Apple is working with Sony on a deal that will let Vision Pro owners use a version of the PlayStation VR2's hand controllers with the device. That's a notable change since, right now, the Vision Pro doesn't use any controllers at all. Instead, users manipulate the gadget using their fingers and eyes.

That's a pretty cool and novel way to use a computer (again, I really urge anyone who hasn't tried Vision Pro to book a free, 30-minute demo at an Apple store). But that choice also means that developers who built something for other augmented/virtual/mixed reality devices — which generally do use hand-held controllers — would have a hard time porting their applications to Apple's new device.

Which makes the killer app problem that much harder to solve.

But even if the Apple-Sony deal does happen soon (I've asked both companies for comment) I don't think it immediately changes the Vision Pro's prospects.

Apple headset rivals like Sony and Meta are positioning their devices as gaming consoles (Meta is bundling a Batman game with its newest Quest headsets). But the Vision Pro just seems too expensive and bulky to support video games at scale. This move seems more like an indicator that Apple knows it has a problem. It's not a solution.