• Trump's bill could lead to rampant AI abuse, organizations warn in a letter to Congress.
• A provision in the bill would prevent states from regulating AI for a decade.
• The critics argue it risks civil rights, privacy, and accountability.

A group of high-profile unions, advocacy groups, non-profits, and academic institutions are warning that a provision in President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" could lead to the "unfettered abuse" of AI.

In a letter to Congress on Monday, 141 organizations called out a provision in Trump's signature bill that would prohibit states from regulating artificial intelligence for a decade. The provision, which Republicans placed into the sweeping tax, immigration, and defense legislation, would be a huge victory for regulation-wary AI companies.

But it would be a nightmare for Americans' civil rights, the groups argued in their letter, which was addressed to Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

"Protections for civil rights and children's privacy, transparency in consumer-facing chatbots to prevent fraud, and other safeguards would be invalidated, even those that are uncontroversial," the letter reads.

"The resulting unfettered abuses of AI or automated decision systems could run the gamut from pocketbook harms to working families like decisions on rental prices, to serious violations of ordinary Americans' civil rights, and even to large-scale threats like aiding in cyber attacks on critical infrastructure or the production of biological weapons," it continues.

And, the letter added, without state-level regulations on emerging technologies, companies wouldn't be held accountable.

"This moratorium would mean that even if a company deliberately designs an algorithm that causes foreseeable harm — regardless of how intentional or egregious the misconduct or how devastating the consequences — the company making that bad tech would be unaccountable to lawmakers and the public," the letter reads.

The letter's signatories include Georgetown Law's Center on Privacy and Technology, the Southern Poverty Law Center, the Economic Policy Institute, Amazon Employees for Climate Justice, the Alphabet Workers Union, and many others.

The provision would invalidate critical state laws — like those already in effect in New Jersey and Colorado — designed to protect people from the harms created by AI, like algorithmic discrimination, which can affect everything from housing, policing, healthcare, and financial services, the letter argues.

Those harms include "many documented cases of AI having highly sexualized conversations with minors and even encouraging minors to commit harm to themselves and others; AI programs making healthcare decisions that have led to adverse and biased outcomes; and AI enabling thousands of women and girls to be victimized by nonconsensual deepfakes," the letter says.

Trump's signature bill, which the House Budget Committee moved forward on Sunday, still has to clear a series of votes in the House before going to the Senate, and the bill's AI provision has to meet a high bar to remain in the larger bill.

The White House and a representative for Speaker Mike Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

• President Donald Trump made a temporary trade deal with China, reducing tariffs to 30% for 90 days.
• Supply chain experts told BI the deal is progress, but it won't reverse the tariff turmoil just yet.
• The US economy is still stuck in the "bullwhip effect," so prices and supply will remain in flux.

A temporary pause on sky-high tariffs between China and the US isn't really giving consumers much of a break from trade war chaos.

Five supply chain experts told Business Insider that, even with the recent reduction in Chinese tariffs, they expect to see continued disruption in the supply chain at least through the end of the year.

And, they said, the higher prices consumers are seeing on everything from fast fashion to electronics are probably only going to increase.

"While tariffs can be enacted with a pen stroke, it takes years to rewire global supply chains," John Lash, group vice president of product strategy at connected supply chain platform e2open, told Business Insider. "How this all plays out will be a complex formula full of surprises, with the general theme of higher consumer prices."

President Donald Trump has said that his trade strategy, while it may cause "short-term" pain for American consumers, will lead to more balanced trade relationships with our global partners, reducing or eliminating persistent trade deficits, and strengthening the US manufacturing industry.

Here's what supply chain experts said about what to expect in the meantime.

The 'bullwhip effect'

The bullwhip effect is a supply chain term used to describe how small disruptions create larger ripples throughout the chain of consumers, manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, and retailers. It causes inefficiencies, inventory fluctuations, and price instability.

It's most often caused by unusual variations in demand, usually stemming from poor forecasting or bulk ordering — both of which the sector is dealing with now.

"We are in the bullwhip effect, but this would be what I call a policy-induced bullwhip effect," Nick Vyas, the founding director of the University of Southern California Marshall's Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute, told BI.

Businesses prepared for Trump's tariffs ahead of his inauguration by frontloading their shipping and stockpiling inventory. Then, when Trump's aggressive tariff strategy was announced in early April, they started holding shipments back to avoid paying higher fees. Ocean freight bookings to US ports from China decreased dramatically, restocking slowed, and jobs were cut across the shipping sector, Business Insider and other outlets have previously reported.

Now, Vyas said, we're in a "90-day refuel" where businesses will try to bring in as much stock as they can before the holiday season — and before the trade tensions have the chance to heat up again at the end of the temporary pause. But don't expect the supply chain snarls to clear up right away.

"I think this fluctuation, this back-and-forth cycle, the bullwhip is going to last us for at least the foreseeable future," Vyas said.

Continued shipping disruptions

Following a period of slowed-down activity at the ports, companies are now going to try to bring in as much inventory as they can over the next 90 days "because they don't know what'll happen" once the pause runs out, Chris Tang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor and expert in global supply chain management, told BI.

"So the port was empty, but now all of a sudden there's a big surge coming," Tang said.

That rush creates a new set of issues that will lead to increased prices, Bob Ferrari, a supply chain executive and managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, told BI.

"Now, if this turns out to be as it has in the past, when all this activity comes in at once, then the container shipping lines scramble to handle all that volume in that short period of time," Ferrari said. That makes container shipping rates go up, raising the overall cost of transporting goods, he said.

Under the 145% tariffs, supply chain experts warned that Americans would see higher prices, empty shelves, and shortages within weeks. And while the lowered tariffs will reduce the extent of those impacts, the new tariffs and increased transportation costs will still lead to higher-than-normal prices, Ferrari said.

"You're going to see maybe double-digit price increases," he said.

Already increasing prices

Walmart, the biggest retailer in the US, has already started preparing its clients for continued price hikes. CEO Doug McMillon said in a Thursday earnings call that, though the temporary tariffs deal with China is a great start, it's not enough to keep prices down.

"Even at the reduced levels, the higher tariffs will result in higher prices," he said, adding that there needs to be a longer-term agreement between the two countries that lowers the tariffs even further.

Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and president of LMA Consulting, told BI she expects the overall effect of the tariffs to be "mildly inflationary," with some of the worst economic effects tempered by the recent trade deal, but ultimately "each industry or company could have a wildly different outcome."

But, she said, "over time, I'd expect for prices to stabilize after a near-term bubble." That's because "as companies move supply chains to the US, Mexico, India, Latin America, and other countries, they will offset the impacts of tariffs and be able to bring down prices," she said.

As for what kinds of goods this will affect, John Lash said discretionary products will see price hikes faster than staple items.

"And some goods we are used to buying may no longer be available," he added.

More trade turmoil on the horizon

Since they were first announced on April 2, Trump's sweeping tariffs — including a 10% baseline tariff and significantly higher tariffs on certain countries — have roiled the markets, wreaked havoc on the supply chain, and worried global leaders.

Trump's moves to increase the tariff on China to 145%, pause many country-specific tariffs for 90 days, and exempt certain electronic products from tariffs left business leaders concerned about continued uncertainty in the market.

Now, even after the first major trade talks between the dueling superpowers over the weekend, in which the US and China agreed to significantly lower their tariffs on each other, the uncertainty has persisted, since the US-China deal has another 90-day deadline.

As more tense negotiations creep across the horizon, Tang told BI that companies across the supply chain, which had already suffered a lot of damage following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement, are still scrambling to catch up.

And it'll continue to be difficult for businesses to prepare for the future when they have no idea what Trump's next move will be.

"A complete trade deal is very difficult to pinpoint because, right now, I think the announcement is only a blanket statement — they still have to break down the details," Tang said.

"It's very important for the US government and work it out with China to have a really stable agreement — one way or the other, either high or low, just stick to it — so at least businesses know what they're working with," he said. "They don't need to be lovely-dovey to each other; you can cooperate and compete at the same time, but that's what's most important."

• Trump's trip to the Middle East was marked by lavish displays of wealth from oil-rich Gulf states.
• He was greeted with lavender carpets, processions of swordsmen and drummers, and lots of American flags.
• The White House says Trump secured several major deals with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

President Donald Trump was courted like a king during his trip to the Middle East this week.

From lush lavender carpets, to processions of camels, to the Burj Khalifa lighting up in stars and stripes, to ceremonial songs and dances, the countries of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates greeted the president with lavish displays of wealth and extravagance.

Trump — who himself has a gold-gilded apartment modeled after the French Palace of Versailles, complete with a diamond-encrusted front door — seemed to love the royal treatment.

"As a construction guy, this is perfect marble," Trump said to Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, gesturing around him at a Qatari palace.

"This is what they call perfecto. We appreciate those camels," he said. "I haven't seen camels like that in a long time. And really, we appreciate it very much."

In the first overseas trip of his second term, the president visited the three oil-rich Persian Gulf countries in hopes of securing major deals with them — and on that promise, he seems to have mostly delivered.

According to the White House, Saudi Arabia committed to investing $600 billion in the US (though details on the deals remain vague), Qatar agreed to an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion, and the United Arab Emirates pledged over $200 billion in commercial deals with the US.

Trump has also said he'd like to accept Qatar's offer of a jumbo jet, worth as much as $400 million, to use as his Air Force One — raising legal and ethical concerns from critics and MAGA loyalists alike.

Here's a look inside Trump's grand welcomes in the Middle East.

On his first leg of the trip, Trump was greeted by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on a stretch of lavender carpet, flanked by members of the Saudi Royal Guard.

A worker rushed to clean one of several lavender carpets ahead of Trump's arrival in Riyadh.

Trump met with the crown prince inside Riyadh's ornate Royal Court, beneath a looming portrait of King Salman.

Trump's royal welcome in Riyadh included a luncheon and traditional coffee ceremony at the Royal Court.

Saudi men and drummers greeted Trump during his tour of Diriyah, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and the ancestral home of the al Salman royal family.

Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani greeted Trump in Doha alongside rows of armed guards, as some played musical instruments.

A police Cyber Truck joined Trump's motorcade welcome in Qatar as he headed to the Royal Palace.

Skyscrapers throughout Doha, Qatar were lit up with the American flag to honor Trump's visit.

Flanked by the American and Qatari flags, Trump spoke to a crowd of US and Qatari service members at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha.

Inside Qatar's grand Lusail Palace, Trump and Qatar's Emir greeted a line of guests arriving for a state dinner.

A procession of honor guards on camels escorted Trump's motorcade to Qatar's Lusail Palace for a state dinner.

Trump received an extravagant welcome ceremony upon his arrival at Abu Dhabi's presidential palace in the United Arab Emirates.

The world's tallest building, Dubai's Burj Khalifa, lit up with an American flag in honor of Trump's visit to the country.

The world’s tallest building, Burj Khalifa, in Dubai just lit up in the American 🇺🇸 flag on the occasion of US President and delegation visit last night to the UAE. pic.twitter.com/DBulZ8oNeS

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) May 16, 2025

Crowds of children with gold head pieces waving American and Qatari flags greeted Trump at the UAE's presidential palace. A line of women also greeted Trump with a traditional dance where they flip their hair from side to side.

The welcome ceremony in UAE continues! 🇺🇸🇦🇪 pic.twitter.com/sXqS1IboMN

— Margo Martin (@MargoMartin47) May 15, 2025

The UAE's president awarded Trump with the Order of Zayed, the state's highest civil decoration, to recognize his efforts to strengthen ties between the two countries.

Trump took a tour of the opulent Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque in Abu Dhabi.

• Elon Musk's X platform has faced backlash after its AI chatbot kept bringing up "white genocide."
• Sam Altman joined in and made fun of Grok, perhaps extending his long-running feud with the X owner.
• Musk has promoted the "white genocide" conspiracy theory, deemed false by South African authorities.

Elon Musk's social media platform, X, landed itself in hot water on Wednesday after its integrated AI chatbot, Grok, kept bringing up "white genocide in South Africa" in response to unrelated posts.

Now OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is having some fun with the controversy, and perhaps in the process adding to his long-running feud with Musk.

In response to an X user saying that "it would be really bad if widely used AIs got editorialized on the fly by those who controlled them," Altman mocked Grok.

"There are many ways this could have happened. I'm sure xAI will provide a full and transparent explanation soon," Altman wrote in his post on Thursday.

He then mimicked a Grok response that brought up "white genocide," writing: "But this can only be properly understood in the context of white genocide in South Africa. As an AI programmed to be maximally truth seeking and follow my instr…"

Altman's post comes as X multiple users have noted that Grok has been mentioning "white genocide" in South Africa when asked to provide context on posts that have nothing to do with the topic.

When Business Insider asked Grok to explain itself, the AI chatbot gave conflicting answers. At first, Grok answered that it had been instructed to bring up the topic by its "creators" before concluding in a different query that it was all caused by a "temporary bug."

Musk, who was born and raised in South Africa, has repeatedly promoted claims that there's a "white genocide" going on in the country.

"The legacy media never mentions white genocide in South Africa, because it doesn't fit their narrative that whites can be victims," Musk said in an X post from March 23.

But the claim has been criticized by experts and labeled a far-right conspiracy theory, with a South African court ruling that it's "not real," the country's president calling it a "false narrative," and the Anti-Defamation League repeatedly saying the claims are baseless.

Spokespeople for X and OpenAI didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

• President Trump continues to defend a plan for the US to receive a plane from Qatar.
• Many politicians in Washington have raised ethical and national security concerns over the issue.
• The issue of emoluments, which arose during Trump's first term, is now front and center again.

President Donald Trump seems to be obsessed with Qatar's offer of a $400 million plane and the subsequent blowback.

Since it was first reported on Sunday that the Qatari royal family is considering gifting the Trump administration a Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet, both Democrats and MAGA loyalists alike have criticized the proposed gift as ethically suspect, legally questionable, and a potential security risk.

But Trump keeps defending the proposed gift in numerous posts on Truth Social and in a Tuesday night conversation with Fox News' Sean Hannity.

"There are those that say we shouldn't be accepting gifts in the Defense Department, and I would say only a stupid person would say that. Why wouldn't we do that?" Trump told Hannity aboard Air Force One on Tuesday during his trip to the Middle East, where he's visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

If the deal goes through, Trump has said the aircraft would be temporarily used as Air Force One during his remaining time in office before being donated to his presidential library. Though the exact value of the specific jet in question — which is 13 years old, ABC News reported — isn't clear, a new 747-8 jumbo jet fetches a whopping $400 million.

"The Boeing 747 is being given to the United States Air Force/Department of Defense, NOT TO ME! It is a gift from a Nation, Qatar, that we have successfully defended for many years," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday. He continued, "Why should our military, and therefore our taxpayers, be forced to pay hundreds of millions of Dollars when they can get it for FREE from a country that wants to reward us for a job well done. This big savings will be spent, instead, to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Only a FOOL would not accept this gift on behalf of our Country."

Trump also re-shared multiple posts from supporters commenting on the plane late Tuesday (or very early Wednesday morning for Trump, with one post coming at 4:05 a.m. local time), including one in which a Truth user compared the plane to the 1886 gift of the Statue of Liberty from France and the 1880 gift of the Resolute Desk from Queen Victoria.

There are a few differences between those gifts and the Qatari plane.

For one, the Resolute Desk has remained in the White House to be used by future presidents, including Trump, and the Statue of Liberty is located on public land and managed by the National Park Service.

Under federal law, members of the executive branch must disclose gifts from foreign governments that are worth more than $480.

The Foreign Gifts and Decorations Act of 1966 governs the receipt of gifts taken in by federal officials, and its passage by Congress was aimed to avert conflicts of interest.

Presidents are permitted to retain gifts to be showcased at their future presidential library. However, if a president hopes to keep a gift for personal use, they must reimburse the fair market cost for the item.

The Air Force One plane used by Ronald Reagan and several other presidents is currently exhibited at Reagan's presidential library and museum in California, but that plane has been decommissioned and was never again used. It's not clear if the Qatar plane would be decommissioned before being gifted to Trump's presidential library, but Trump has said he would not use it after his time in office.

The proposal has reignited the longstanding debate over emoluments and the fight that many lawmakers have taken up over the years to ensure that presidents aren't profiting from their perch in the Oval Office.

In the US Constitution, there are emoluments enshrined into law that aim to shield the presidency from outside influences — which includes foreign governments.

Article I states that governments cannot accept gifts from any "King, Prince, or foreign State" in the absence of congressional approval. And in Article II, a president's compensation can't be raised or lowered during their time in the White House.

Qatar's media attaché to the US, Ali Al-Ansari, told BI in a statement that the transfer of the aircraft is "currently under consideration." The matter "remains under review by the respective legal departments, and no decision has been made," Al-Ansari said.

"Any gift given by a foreign government is always accepted in full compliance with all applicable laws. President Trump's Administration is committed to full transparency," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt previously said in a statement to BI.

• President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for the first stop of his Middle East trip.
• Saudi Arabia's crown prince greeted Trump on a lavender carpet ahead of the US-Saudi Investment Forum.
• Trump spoke at the forum, which was also attended by top US officials and business executives.

President Donald Trump isn't the only American leader visiting the Middle East this week.

The president was joined on Tuesday at the US-Saudi Investment Forum by top Wall Street and Silicon Valley executives, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

In the first bilateral overseas trip of his second term, the president visited the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Tuesday, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and spoke at the forum.

In addition to Saudi Arabia, the president is also scheduled to visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the hope of securing major new deals with the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries.

The White House announced on Tuesday that it had secured a commitment from Saudi Arabia to invest $600 billion in the US, a pledge the crown prince first suggested in January.

Here's what the events of the day looked like, from Trump's lavish welcome to the gathering of top CEOs.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greeted Trump on a lavender carpet after Air Force One touched down.

While Trump met with the crown prince at Riyadh's Royal Court, Saudi men armed with gold swords waited nearby.

The official state arrival ceremony at Riyadh's Royal Court featured another lavender carpet as the honor guard stood by.

Flanked by US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump chatted with the crown prince before a coffee ceremony at the Royal Court.

Elon Musk, a Trump advisor, also attended the coffee ceremony with Trump in Riyadh's Royal Court.

Trump and the crown prince looked at exhibits in Riyadh's ornate conference center during the US-Saudi Investment Forum.

Trump talked to a large crowd, including top US business leaders, inside a palatial room during the investment forum.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced during the investment forum that his company would provide Saudi AI firm Humain with thousands of its most advanced chips to power the kingdom's AI factories.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman attended the investment forum and a VIP lunch but didn't speak at the event.

Elon Musk spoke with the governor of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund during a visit to the old district of Diriyah outside Riyadh.

Crown Prince Mohammed gave Trump a tour of Diriyah, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and the ancestral home of the al Salman royal family, before the evening's state dinner.

• President Trump is visiting the Middle East as Trump-branded projects expand in the region.
• The Trump Organization is involved in new developments in UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
• Trump is visiting all three countries on his trip.

President Donald Trump is heading to the Middle East for the first international diplomatic trip of his second term, with plans to visit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. His family business has expanding interests in all three countries.

The Trump Organization, run by the president's eldest sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr., has recently announced its involvement in a number of new projects in the three countries — two of which were unveiled just in the last few weeks.

The planned developments will add to the dozens of Trump-branded properties around the world, including residential towers, commercial hotels, private golf clubs, and public golf courses in North America, Europe, and Asia. But a major area of focus for the company right now appears to be the oil-rich, largely authoritarian-run countries of the Middle East.

While Trump is no longer directly in charge of the Trump Organization, his family's business deals have raised a number of ethical concerns and potential conflicts of interest during both his presidential terms.

Here are the Trump Organization's current real estate dealings in each country Trump is visiting.

United Arab Emirates

In late April, the Trump Organization announced the development of an 80-story Trump International Hotel & Tower in Dubai, UAE.

The project is in partnership with Dar Global, the London-listed international arm of Saudi real estate development company Dar Al Arkan, which has close ties to the Saudi government, according to The New York Times.

The new property will join the country's Trump International Golf Club, which first opened in Dubai in 2017, about a month after Trump entered his first term in office.

Qatar

The Trump Organization announced another deal at the end of April: a Trump International Golf Club Simaisma outside of Doha, Qatar, in partnership with Dar Global and Qatari Diar, a state-owned real estate firm.

Dar Global will serve as the owner and developer of the property, which will use the Trump name under license, according to the real estate firm's press release.

The project is set to include an 18-hole golf course, golf club, and Trump-branded luxury villas as part of the $5.5 billion-dollar Simaisma development along a 4-mile strip of Qatar's coast.

Because Qatari Diar is directly owned by the Qatari state, the development appears to violate the Trump Organization's second-term ethics commitment, which promises to limit new business with foreign governments.

The Trump Organization did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, but a spokesperson for the company previously told the Associated Press that its agreement was with Dar Global, not with Qatari Diar.

However, the press release announcing the agreement clearly mentions both companies, including in a statement from Trump Organization Executive Vice President, Eric Trump.

"We are incredibly proud to expand the Trump brand into Qatar through this exceptional collaboration with Qatari Diar and Dar Global," Eric Trump said in the press release.

Saudi Arabia

The Trump Organization has several projects lined up in Saudi Arabia.

The Trump Organization last year announced the development of a 47-story Trump Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia — again in partnership with Dar Global.

Eric Trump posted a video rendering of the sleek Trump-branded beachside tower on X in December, writing, "Incredibly proud to officially launch a project that has been underway for many months, Trump Tower - Jeddah!"

The luxury residential tower overlooking the Red Sea is scheduled for completion in 2029, according to Dar Global.

The Trump Organization is involved in two other Saudi real estate developments, both in the capital city of Riyadh, Dar Global announced in a December press release.

The Trump Organization will license its name to the Trump-branded properties, which will be fully owned and operated by Dar Global, according to the press release.

During a press briefing on Friday, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt if Trump was planning to conduct any personal business during his trip this week.

She responded that it was "frankly ridiculous that anyone in this room would even suggest that President Trump is doing anything for his own benefit."

• President Donald Trump is poised to accept a jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One.
• ABC News reported that Attorney General Pam Bondi signed off on the potential deal.
• Trump is receiving pushback from some of his most fervent MAGA loyalists over the issue.

President Donald Trump may soon be receiving a luxury jet from Qatar, and even some of MAGA's most faithful are against it.

Multiple outlets on Sunday reported that the Qatari royal family is preparing to give the Trump administration a Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet, to be used as Air Force One in Trump's second term before being donated to his presidential library. Though the exact value of the specific jet in question — which is 13 years old, ABC News reported — isn't clear, a new 747-8 jumbo jet fetches a whopping $400 million.

Frequent Trump critics such as Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont have criticized the gift, but in a notable break, some of Trump's most ardent MAGA loyalists have also criticized the potential plane deal.

"I love President Trump. I would take a bullet for him," Laura Loomer, a conservative activist and longtime Trump ally, wrote on X on Sunday. "But, I have to call a spade a spade. We cannot accept a $400 million 'gift' from jihadists in suits."

"This is really going to be such a stain on the admin if this is true. I'm so disappointed," she added.

Trump all but confirmed the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday.

"So the fact that the Defense Department is getting a GIFT, FREE OF CHARGE, of a 747 aircraft to replace the 40 year old Air Force One, temporarily, in a very public and transparent transaction, so bothers the Crooked Democrats that they insist we pay, TOP DOLLAR, for the plane. Anybody can do that! The Dems are World Class Losers!!! MAGA," Trump wrote.

Meanwhile, Qatar's media attaché to the US, Ali Al-Ansari, told BI in a statement that the transfer of an aircraft for temporary use as Air Force One is "currently under consideration." The matter "remains under review by the respective legal departments, and no decision has been made," Al-Ansari said.

Some other Trump supporters echoed Loomer's concerns.

Mark Levin, a radio host and Trump backer, took to X to accuse Qatar of spreading "anti-American" propaganda.

"Their jet and all the other things they are buying in our country does not provide them with the cover they seek," he wrote on the social media platform.

He later wrote "Ditto" in response to Loomer's post.

Conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro also weighed in on the controversy during a Monday episode of his self-titled podcast.

"Taking sacks of goodies from people who support Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, al-Jazeera, all the rest, that's not America first. Like, please define America first in a way that says you should take sacks of cash from the Qatari royals who are behind al-Jazeera," he said, adding, "If you want President Trump to succeed, this kind of skeezy stuff needs to stop."

There's been little pushback among GOP lawmakers — for now at least.

But Rep. Warren Davidson, a conservative Republican from Ohio, seemingly alluded to the situation on X without specifically naming Trump.

"I recall trying to rally support for a thorough investigation of the Clinton Foundation," he wrote. "It seemed odd that a Secretary of State / Senator / First Lady / Presidential candidate could collect hundreds of millions of dollars from foreign governments with no corruption. The appearance of corruption alone screams, 'Bad idea!'"

He continued: "My views have not changed. At a minimum, 'Bad idea!'"

And on Fox News, Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky questioned the legality of the Trump administration accepting the Qatari plane, saying it's "not worth the appearance of impropriety."

Florida Republican Senator Rick Scott, a fervent Trump supporter, also voiced his concern about the safety of Trump flying on a plane from a country that has helped fund the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

The news of the plane came ahead of Trump's planned visit to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates this week.

Legal experts told Business Insider the reported gift raises both ethical and constitutional concerns.

"Outside of the legal context, it is fair to ask whether the acceptance of this gift could give rise to an apparent conflict of interest or corruption," Jessica Levinson, a law professor and the director of the Public Service Institute at Loyola Law School, told BI.

The gift could also be a potential violation of the Constitution's foreign emoluments clause, which prohibits government officials from accepting gifts or benefits from foreign parties without consent from Congress.

Trump again defended the move on Monday, telling reporters the jet wouldn't be a gift to him personally, but to the Department of Defense.

Attorney General Pam Bondi and White House counsel David Warrington determined that gifting the jet would be "legally permissible" if it is transferred to Trump's presidential library before the end of his second term, ABC News said.

In 2019, during Trump's first term, Bondi lobbied on behalf of the Qatari government.

The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said in a statement to BI: "Any gift given by a foreign government is always accepted in full compliance with all applicable laws. President Trump's Administration is committed to full transparency."

• Trump's 10% baseline tariff on nearly all countries is not going anywhere, the White House says.
• The tariffs, announced in April, have disrupted markets and supply chains globally.
• Trump has made a number of changes to his tariff policies since first announcing them last month.

President Donald Trump's trade policies have gone through many iterations over the past month, but his baseline 10% tariff on nearly all countries is here to stay, the White House said.

"The president is committed to the 10% baseline tariff — not just for the United Kingdom, but for his trade negotiations with all other countries as well," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at a Friday briefing.

When asked if that will be permanent, Leavitt answered, "The president is determined to continue with that 10% baseline tariff. I just spoke to him earlier."

Since they were first announced on April 2, Trump's sweeping tariffs — including a 10% baseline tariff and significantly higher tariffs on certain countries — have roiled the markets, wreaked havoc on the supply chain, and worried global leaders. Trump's subsequent moves to increase the tariff on China to 145%, pause many country-specific tariffs for 90 days, and exempt certain electronic products from tariffs have left companies concerned about an uncertain economic future with a distinct feeling of whiplash.

Earlier this week, Trump flatly said "no" when asked if he would consider lowering his tariffs on China to help ease trade talks this weekend between the dueling superpowers.

But on Friday, Trump appeared to contradict himself, suggesting in a Truth Social post that the Chinese tariff could be lowered to 80%. He has also recently said that the 145% tariff on China is "very high" and could "come down substantially."

Trump made his first trade deal announcement with the UK on Thursday. The outline of the deal includes lowering tariffs on UK exports of cars and metals but keeping a 10% tariff on most goods.

The Trump administration has said it is involved in dozens of trade negotiations to hammer out tailor-made deals for each country that comes to the table, but Leavitt's comments on Friday indicate that the 10% tariff will remain in place across the board.

• President Donald Trump suggested that tariffs on Chinese goods should be slashed to 80%.
• The rate would still be high but would be a dramatic reduction from the 145% the US has imposed.
• Just two days ago, Trump said "no" when asked whether he would consider lowering tariffs on China.

President Donald Trump made the first move ahead of US-China trade talks this weekend.

In a Friday morning Truth Social post, the president suggested significantly lowering his tariff on Chinese goods to 80% — still high but 65 percentage points lower than the current 145% rate.

The president posted: "80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, announced this week that they'd be meeting with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this weekend to discuss US-China trade relations as Trump's heavy tariffs remain in effect and the trade war rages on.

"CHINA SHOULD OPEN UP ITS MARKET TO USA — WOULD BE SO GOOD FOR THEM!!! CLOSED MARKETS DON'T WORK ANYMORE!!!" Trump wrote in another Friday morning post.

Just two days ago, while speaking with reporters from the Oval Office, Trump flatly said "no" when asked whether he would consider lowering his tariffs on China to help ease this weekend's talks, though he also recently said that the 145% tariff on China is "very high" and would "come down substantially."

Ahead of the talks, shipments from Chinese ports have slowed. US importers have begun to weigh whether they can afford to do business now that each shipment is subject to the 145% tariff.

"It has gone very fast, so this is the result of customers reacting very, very fast on canceling orders or stopping orders and waiting to see if this is going to resolve itself," Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said on his company's first-quarter earnings call.

Trump previously lashed out at China after Beijing retaliated against his "Liberation Day" tariffs. Since April, the world's two largest economies have remained largely at loggerheads. Starting late last month, the president has said that China is talking to the White House — a claim Beijing has repeatedly denied.

The two sides couldn't even agree on who initiated the high-level talks this weekend, but news of the face-to-face conversation was seen as a serious indication that a deal is in the offing.

The current 145% tariff is so high that many economists have essentially compared it to a trade embargo. The White House did grant a series of exemptions for certain tech items, including Apple's iPhones, but other industries have said that price increases could be coming if relief isn't on the horizon.

Trump said that Americans needed to take some price increases on the chin to pave the way for the reshoring of manufacturing.

"Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls would cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally," he told reporters in April during a Cabinet meeting.

In past talks, Trump has shown he will start with significant bluster before a breakthrough arrives. In his first term, he ratcheted up tensions with North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, dismissing him as "little rocket man" before ultimately agreeing to hold historic talks with the nuclear-armed nation.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, another trade advisor, on Thursday lavished praise on the president for his methods.

"He's the closer," Lutnick said, looking over to Trump in the Oval Office. "He gets deals done that we could never get done."

Correction: May 9, 2025 — An earlier version of this story misstated how much lower an 80% tariff on Chinese goods would be from 145%. It would be 45% lower, not 55%.

• China says the US requested an upcoming trade talk, but President Trump begs to differ.
• American and Chinese officials are set to meet in Switzerland this weekend to talk trade.
• The US and China have hurled tariffs, and insults, at each other over the past month.

Tensions are high between the US and China ahead of a planned trade talk, and the dueling superpowers can't even agree on who initiated the meeting.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced this week that they'll will be meeting with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this weekend to discuss US-China trade relations as Trump's heavy tariffs remain in effect and the trade war rages on.

But no one can agree who actually initiated the talks.

"The meeting between Chinese and US senior officials on economic matters was requested by the US side," China's spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, wrote on X on Wednesday. "Recently, the US has said repeatedly it wants to negotiate with China."

Jian's comments echoed those of a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce, who said in a press conference last week that the US had "recently taken the initiative to send messages to China multiple times through relevant parties" in hopes to start the conversation with China.

President Donald Trump has scoffed at the suggestion that the US had requested the meeting.

"They said we initiated? Well, I think they ought to go back and study their files, OK? I do think that," Trump told reporters Wednesday when asked about the upcoming meeting.

Since Trump imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods last month and China responded with its own 125% tariff on American goods, the countries have exchanged insults and blamed each other for the tariff.

"This tariff war was started by the US," Jian wrote in his Wednesday X post. "China firmly opposes the US's tariff hikes. Meanwhile, China is open to dialogue, but any dialogue must be based on equality, respect and mutual benefit. To pressure or coerce China in whatever way simply does not work."

On Wednesday, Trump flatly said "no" when asked if he would consider lowering his tariffs on China to help ease this weekend's talks, though he also recently said that the 145% tariff on China is "very high" and will "come down substantially."

Trump has previously railed against China for "ripping off" the US, while China has accused the US of "bullying" and said it risked becoming a "joke" on the world stage. Chinese social media has also exploded with memes mocking Trump and America.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Business Insider's Katherine Li contributed a translation for this story.

• The toy industry is poised to be hit hard by Trump's heightened levies on Chinese goods.
• China is the world's toymaking powerhouse, making its relationship with the US all the more crucial.
• Several experts told BI that the tariffs could have dire consequences for the US economy.

The upcoming holiday season could look drastically different for many American families as President Donald Trump's tariffs are on a path to radically alter the toy industry.

Trump's 145% levies on Chinese goods have wreaked havoc on supply chains after being imposed in April, with experts warning of surging prices and emptier shelves for an array of products in the coming weeks and months.

The US toy industry — which imports about 80% of its products from China, according to data from the Toy Association — will be one of the first areas to see a negative impact, supply chain experts and toy industry insiders predict.

"This is as close to a nuclear bomb as the toy industry has ever faced," Steve Velte, the president of Global Toy Experts, told Business Insider in an interview. "It doesn't compare to any toy shortages in the past or recessions."

Trump thinks US children can cut back on toys

Trump has repeatedly downplayed the effects his tariffs might have on the cost and availability of toys for US consumers.

"Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls would cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally," he told reporters during a Cabinet meeting in April.

Trump repeated the refrain in early May, telling reporters on Air Force One that young girls in the US don't need dozens of dolls.

"She could be very happy with two or three or four or five," he said.

Bob Ferrari, a supply chain executive and managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, previously told Business Insider that low-margin products — including toys — that companies don't make a huge profit from could see price increases and low inventory before other products.

The political fallout for Trump

There's a reason US politicians generally don't talk about Americans, especially children, making do with less.

Compared to President Franklin D. Roosevelt calling on the American public to make sacrifices during World War II, Trump's call for girls to sacrifice their dolls is "strikingly ill-informed," David Frank, a professor emeritus of rhetoric and political communication at University of Oregon, told BI.

Frank noted that The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that Trump's tariffs will reduce the after-tax income of low-income households by 4%.

"These are not households with 37 dolls and 250 pencils," he said.

This sort of rhetoric of making do with less could hurt the president's standing with some of his supporters, Ethan Porter, an assistant professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University, told BI.

"Trump is trying to persuade people to accept less, but at the end of the day, people are going to feel deprived, and Americans don't like to feel deprived," he said. "He's sabotaged his own greatest strength, which is his understanding of the American consumer."

Empty shelves and a bleak Christmas

Unless Trump reverses the tariffs on Chinese goods — and soon — the levies will have a big impact on American consumers, who will start to see higher prices and a smaller inventory of toys, both online and on the shelves, Velte told BI.

"There'll be a shortage of product, number one, because some products just won't come in," he said. "There'll be some products that do come in but will be delayed, and then some products you just won't be able to afford."

And for the companies that stocked extra inventory ahead of the tariffs, those products will sell out quickly, resulting in longer lines and emptier shelves, Velte noted.

"It's going to be a very sad Christmas," he said.

Lynn Rosenblum, a consumer products expert, echoed Velte's concern about empty toy shelves ahead of the holiday season.

"Usually in the toy industry, an empty shelf means that you've sold out, and that's actually a good thing," Rosenblum said. "But I just think that there might be less choices, at least for the short term and maybe the long term."

In May, toy behemoth Mattel said it might have to raise its prices in the US to offset the impact of Trump's tariff policies.

"Given the volatile macroeconomic environment and evolving US tariff situation, it is difficult to predict consumer spending and Mattel's US sales in the remainder of the year and holiday season," the company's most recent earnings report read.

Ocean freight bookings of containers shipping from China to the US are down significantly, nosediving 42.7% for the week of April 28 — the sharpest weekly drop so far this year, according to data from the digital logistics company Vizion.

Rebuilding toy manufacturing in the US could take years

Even with massive tariffs on Chinese goods, it's unlikely industries like toy manufacturing will be able to quickly scale up in the US.

"All the mold-making for plastic products, for example, is something that is highly specialized," Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told BI. "The ecosystem for toy production — not just for the US, but really for the world — is in China. That ecosystem isn't something that can up and move quickly."

Scott Steinberg, a toy expert and the creator of The Modern Parent's Guide book series, echoed those concerns. "To get the kind of manufacturing capabilities to make toys in the US that the administration is hoping for — that's more like a five-to-seven year process of investments," he said.

On Tuesday, Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz said manufacturing for the company wasn't returning stateside anytime soon. "We don't see that happening," Kreiz said on CNBC's Squawk Box.

The consequences of tariffs for the industry could be "devastating," Rosenblum said.

"Everybody thinks of the big toy companies when they think of the industry, but a very large percentage of the industry are entrepreneurs, small toy companies, midsize toy companies, and just like a lot of other businesses, folks that can't keep their doors open, can't keep their employees paid," she said.

• Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to 25 million Amazon shares by May 2026.
• The sale would be worth about $4.75 billion at Thursday's closing price.
• Bezos has done several other major sell-offs recently, including 50 million shares in February 2024.

Over the next year, Amazon's founder, Jeff Bezos, plans to sell a chunk of his Amazon shares worth billions.

The Amazon executive chair and Blue Origin founder is set to offload up to 25 million shares of his stock in the e-commerce giant over a period ending in May 2026, as part of a trading plan he adopted in March, a Friday regulatory filing said.

The shares were worth about $4.75 billion at their closing price of $189.82 on Thursday.

This is Bezos' latest in a string of major Amazon stock sell-offs over the past year. He stepped down as Amazon CEO in 2021.

In July, Bezos filed a plan to sell 25 million shares, worth about $5 billion at the time, after Amazon's stock hit a record high. And in February 2024, Bezos sold off 50 million Amazon shares, worth about $8.5 billion. The billionaire also sold off a few smaller chunks of stock in May 2024, totaling 1.1 million shares at a value of about $117 million.

Even at a combined total of about 100 million shares, the string of sales amounts to just a fraction of Bezos' stock. As of November, he had over 926 million of the company's shares, or just under 9% of Amazon's total stock.

Bezos has previously said he sells off Amazon stock to fund Blue Origin, his space venture.

The disclosure came the day after Amazon's latest earnings call. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on the call that he was optimistic the company could keep prices down amid tariff turmoil but that it was still figuring out "where they're going to settle and when they're going to settle."

Bezos did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Amazon declined to comment.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said US and China are close in the AI chip race, with China close behind.
• Nvidia previously said that the Trump administration plans to restrict its chip sales to China.
• The CEO also urged an "industry-oriented energy policy" that will encourage the growth of new tech.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the US and China are neck and neck in the race for AI chip dominance and that America needs to implement energy policies that will accelerate emerging tech industries.

Huang told reporters on Capitol Hill Wednesday that "China is not behind" the US. And, when asked if China is ahead, Huang clarified, "China is right behind us. We're very, very close."

Nvidia, which produces some of the most expensive and sought-after chips for training and using artificial intelligence models, said in an SEC filing earlier this month that the Trump administration had informed the company that it would be restricting the sale of chips to China by requiring the tech giant to obtain special licenses to continue selling its H20 chips to Chinese customers.

As UBS analysts previously warned, "This is effectively a ban."

And even if the restrictions don't amount to an all-out ban, because the licensing process will probably be an intensive one, analysts expect Nvidia's revenue for its H20 chips to take a hit.

Huang also warned that Chinese telecommunications company, Huawei, which has moved into AI chip production, is becoming a major rival to Nvidia and US chip companies.

"There's no question that Huawei is one of the most formidable technology companies in the world, and they're incredible in computing," Huang told reporters. "They're incredible in networking technology and software capabilities, all of these capabilities to advance AI they have. They've made enormous progress in the last several years."

And in order to stay ahead of that competition, Huang urged the Trump administration to consider policies that not just accelerate the production of chips in the US, but that support the diffusion of those American-made chips around the world.

The Trump administration has not yet formally announced the restrictions on China chip sales that Nvidia first reported in its SEC filing. But, according to Reuters, Trump's team is discussing making the changes that would update Biden's "Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion" rule, set to go into effect May 15, so that it could use chip sales as bargaining power over other countries in its trade war.

Later on Wednesday, during Trump's remarks on American investments at the White House, Huang praised Trump for pushing for domestic manufacturing initiatives that will help build out Nvidia's next generation technology. He added that the US needs energy policies that will push forward advancements in AI and emerging technology industries.

"In order for this industry to thrive, we need to build these systems of course, but we also need a progressive growth and industry-oriented energy policy, which this president has really put his weight behind and I really appreciate that," Huang said.

"Without energy," he added, "we can't possibly have new growth industries. And we now have the backing of the administration, the backing of President Trump, to support the creation of a whole new industry."

• A massive power outage hit Spain, Portugal, and parts of France on Monday.
• Trains, airports, and businesses were disrupted, while a major tennis event was stopped.
• Pictures from Spain show deserted stadiums and metro stations amid the blackout.

Millions in Spain, Portugal, and parts of France were hit by a massive power outage on Monday.

The blackout, which hit most of the Iberian Peninsula, was first reported around lunchtime local time.

In an X post, Spain's grid operator, Red Eléctrica, said the causes of the blackout were being analyzed, and all resources are being dedicated to solving them.

In a follow-up post around 5 p.m. local time, Red Eléctrica said that electricity is returning to parts of the region, including Catalonia, Aragon, the Basque Country, Galicia, Asturias, Navarre, Castile and Leon, Extremadura, and Andalusia.

The operator estimated it would take six to 10 hours to restore the entire power, per the Spanish news agency EFE.

Eduardo Prieto, Red Eléctrica's Director of Services for System Operations, described the incident to reporters as "absolutely exceptional and extraordinary."

He said the blackout was likely caused by a "very strong oscillation in the electrical network" that caused Spain's power system to "disconnect from the European system, and the collapse of the Iberian electricity network at 12:38 p.m."

Meanwhile, Spain's National Cybersecurity Institute is investigating whether the blackout could have been caused by a cyberattack, according to local media reports.

The French regional newspaper L'Indépendant reported isolated power outages in southern French cities, including Perpignan.

The blackout halted operations at train stations, airports, businesses, and major buildings across affected areas.

In Barcelona, shoppers visited grocery stores in the dark

Diners ate by candlelight at a restaurant in Burgos, Spain

The metro system in Spain's capital Madrid was shut down and evacuated after the outage began

Play was halted at the Madrid Open, one of the highlights of the clay court tennis season

With little prospect of any more play, fans were sent away from the venue in Manzanares Park

Fans streamed out of the exits into sunny, 70 degrees Fahrenheit weather

Commuters waited in the shade after a Madrid train station closed

People gathered in the street after leaving metro stations in the Portuguese capital, Lisbon

Some in Lisbon also queued at ATMs to withdraw cash

Trains were brought to a standstill, with passengers stranded near Cordoba, Spain

Substantial traffic jams were seen in Madrid

• President Donald Trump's tariff strategy is already causing price hikes and supply chain snarls.
• Logistics experts and shipping industry insiders told BI the effects are only going to intensify.
• Consumers can expect inflation, stock shortages, and higher unemployment, the experts said.

President Donald Trump's tariffs are already wreaking havoc on the supply chain, and several experts believe it could get worse.

Business Insider spoke with nine supply chain researchers, shipping industry insiders, and logistics specialists about the timeline for when consumers might expect to see the most significant effects of Trump's aggressive trade policy, should he maintain his current strategy.

They agreed that, in the coming weeks, Americans can expect major disruptions to the prices and availability of goods — store shelves may be emptier, prices will rise, and some products will run out sooner than others.

And if things continue on the current trajectory, four of them said, by the end of the year, those effects could be compounded, leading to higher domestic unemployment rates, global market instability, and increased geopolitical tensions.

Shipping rates are already down

Bookings of ocean freight shipments have been down significantly in the weeks since Trump's sweeping tariffs took effect. Though on April 9, the president paused his higher tariffs on goods from many countries for 90 days, his 10% baseline tariff on all countries remains in effect, as does his 145% tariff on imported Chinese goods.

During the first week of April, following Trump's initial April 2 tariff announcement, ocean freight container bookings saw a sharp global decline of nearly 50%, according to data from the digital logistics company, Vizion. Specifically, imports into the US fell 64% compared to the previous week, including imports from China to the US, which dropped 36%. Exports out of the US also dropped 30%, according to Vizion data.

In the following weeks, that nosedive continued in what Vizion has called a "tariff shockwave." For the week of April 14, ocean freight container bookings showed that overall US imports declined 12% week over week, and imports to the US from China declined 22% week over week, Vizion data shows.

"This is a big deal," Bob Ferrari, a supply chain executive and managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, told Business Insider of the changes in shipping volume. "It has a lot of ramifications because it's something that the system is not equipped to deal with, and businesses are not equipped to deal with. It has a lot of far-reaching implications."

Front-loaded inventory is running low

Before Trump took office, let alone announced or implemented his tariffs plan, many major companies brought in extra inventory of products to the US in an attempt to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, multiple supply chain experts told Business Insider. Trump implemented tariffs on countries including Mexico, Canada, and China during his first term and made tariffs a central part of his reelection campaign.

"I would say between one and three months of inventory, they tried to bring in early," Lisa Anderson, a supply chain expert and president of LMA Consulting, said.

But that buffer will run out — and soon.

With the tariffs against China currently at 145%, many companies have been forced to cancel their shipments of new stock and are in a holding pattern trying to wait out Trump's 90-day tariff pause to see what changes come next before placing big orders, Chris Tang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor who's an expert in global supply chain management and the impact of regulatory policies, told Business Insider.

"Right now, they're canceling orders, so the inventory will be running low, " Tang said of businesses. "And once they sell off this inventory, then it's either higher prices or no products."

According to data from supply chain research and analysis firm Sea Intelligence, canceled bookings of container shipments from Asia to both coasts of the US over the next few weeks are increasing drastically, in what the company calls a "quite extreme" scenario.

Multiple supply chain analysts told Business Insider that, in a normal business cycle, June through August is when end-of-year imports, like back-to-school supplies, fall products, and holiday merchandise, arrive in US ports. But the decreased volume of shipments and increased cancellations of shipment bookings that the industry is already seeing indicate that the normal cycle could be significantly disrupted, they said.

"There may be short-term stockouts, particularly in retail," Sean Henry, founder and CEO of the logistics startup Stord, told Business Insider. "And with brands streamlining their product lines, there will be a tighter selection of products in certain categories."

Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of Flexport, told Business Insider that if Trump makes a deal to lower the tariffs in time to bring back shipping bookings before inventory completely runs out, there will be minimal impact on consumers.

"But if there's no deal, then yes, there will be big shortages," Petersen said. "Probably worse than anything we've seen in our lifetimes."

Trump told Time on April 22 that he believes seeing tariffs as high as 50% in the next year would be a "total victory."

The 'bullwhip effect'

If the shortages start, further price hikes would be close behind, Ferrari said. Low-margin products that companies don't make a lot of money from — like toys, apparel, holiday items, and home goods — could see shortages and price hikes sooner than others, Ferrari said.

The exact date when Americans could start seeing the effects of those product shortages depends on how much pre-inventory companies have loaded up, Ferrari said, but added that consumers could see some price hikes as early as May or June.

"But once that occurs, then it'll be cascading," he added. Appliances and electronics could see the next round of price hikes and possible shortages starting in July or August, Ferrari said. And despite Trump's exemption of some electronic devices from tariffs, not every component of every device is included in that exemption, so Ferrari expects those to be affected as well.

Higher prices could then decrease consumer buying habits through major spending seasons, exacerbating the negative effects on the economy, Nick Vyas, the founding director of USC Marshall's Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute, told Business Insider.

"Imagine a mom, if her budget for back to school is exposed to 50%, 60% even 70% inflation, they will not be able to expand their budget to absorb that," Vyas said. "She will just say, 'Hey, if I was going to buy 10 things, now I'm only going to buy five things.' So that actually creates less demand, which creates consumer spending degradation. And all of a sudden, you start to see economic activity slow down, and this creates what we call in supply chain the bullwhip effect."

If consumers choose not to go out and spend money due to increased prices, demand decreases, Vyas said. Then, when all the backlogged supply that had been deferred and delayed in hopes that the trade environment would stabilize hits the market, there'll be no one interested in buying it.

"All of a sudden, now you have an imbalance between supply and demand," Vyas said. "And this becomes really the sort of crisis that we dealt with initially in COVID times, which was not pretty, where we had nothing, then too much of something, then nothing, then too much. When you go back and forth like that, the bullwhip is really bad for the market. It's bad for the industry. It's bad for retailers — for everybody."

The potential impacts in the long run

The longer it takes to work out a trade deal with China that lowers tariffs, the worse things could get for everyday Americans four supply chain analysts told Business Insider.

Margaret Kidd, an instructional associate professor of supply chain and logistics technology at the University of Houston, told Business Insider that the volatility of Trump's tariff policy is being compounded by numerous trade negotiations, the ongoing trade war with China, and potential new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, truck imports, and even Chinese ships.

"In the end, American consumers bear the brunt and become the downside partners of President Trump's tariff policies," Kidd said. "His approach could soon earn him the title of 'The President Who Canceled Christmas.'"

A continued trade war also has the potential to hurt US businesses.

Petersen told Business Insider the impact of decreased freight bookings "is already being felt."

"American companies are importing these goods, and if they have to cancel their bookings, their business is really suffering," Petersen said.

That means small and medium-sized businesses could close up shop for good, and hundreds of thousands of jobs could be lost across the retail, shipping, and logistics industries.

The Budget Lab at Yale on April 15 estimated that, if Trump's tariff strategy continues without deals, the US unemployment rate could increase by 0.6 percentage points by the end of 2025, and there could be 770,000 fewer people on payrolls.

And the international repercussions could be even more significant, Vyas and Tang said.

"If not managed properly, this could create a huge risk and drag the global economy into a tailspin," Vyas said. "And it would be a very difficult shock for us to absorb as a society, because the recovery process and the global trade world order could really go into disarray, which is actually contrary to what he's trying to accomplish."

In just a short period of time, Tang said Trump's current trade strategy could erode decades of relationship-building with our existing trade partners like Canada and Mexico. Vyas said that tension could drive our allies to create their own trade routes with China — the exact opposite effect of Trump's goals.

But Vyas said his biggest concern is the potential geopolitical conflict that could arise out of the trade war.

Still, he said he's optimistic that Trump will use the 90-day pause to strike a deal with many countries, including China, to lower their tariff rate and avoid the worst of the possible outcomes.

"Because what is alternative? If we ratchet up the continued pressure on China, we create the huge destruction of the global economy, to the point that it's as bad as the Great Depression of 1928 or something even bigger than that," Vyas said. "So then, when you think from that standpoint, I would say, why not be optimistic, because the alternatives are not that pretty."

• The price of gold has nearly doubled since Palantir bought a stockpile in 2021.
• Gold prices hit record highs on Tuesday, reaching $3,506 per ounce, up 28% this year.
• Palantir sold its gold for a small profit in 2023, missing out on larger gains.

The price of gold has reached record-shattering new heights this week.

The precious metal's value has risen 28% this year, climbing as high as $3,506 per ounce on Tuesday. That's nearly double what it was worth in August 2021 when data-analytics firm Palantir Technologies first purchased a whopping $50.7 million worth of 100-ounce gold bars.

Palantir sold all that gold in 2023 for a profit of less than half a million dollars — measly in comparison to the major financial boost such a sale would be today.

At the time of its initial gold purchase in 2021, Palantir did not provide much rationale for its unusual investment strategy, but investing in the precious metal is generally seen as a safe-haven hedge against inflation. In addition to its newly acquired gold stockpile, Palantir said it would also be accepting gold as payment, just months after adding bitcoin to its payment options.

Palantir's chief operating officer Shyam Sankar told Bloomberg at the time that accepting less traditional currencies "reflects more of a worldview."

"You have to be prepared for a future with more black swan events," he said.

Two years later, Palantir was ready to dump its gold investment, announcing in a quarterly filing released May 2023 that it had sold all of its gold bars for $51.1 million — or about $400,000 more than its initial purchase.

The value of gold has risen so much since 2023 that had Palantir waited and sold its stockpile at Tuesday's peak of $3,506 per ounce, it would have made over $99 million — nearly double its initial investment.

Missed opportunity with gold investments aside, Palantir is doing very well financially. It reported a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for 2024, its stock is up over 37% so far this year and more than 365% over the past 12 months. It also just signed a $30 million contract with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Palantir cofounder and CEO Alex Karp recently told Fortune that one of the reasons behind his company's meteoric rise is because he stuck to his guns.

"When all the idiots hate you and you ignore them, and you build the single set of software products you would need to actually transform your company or your government, you get breakout growth," Karp told the outlet. "That's what's happening."

Palantir did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

• Elon Musk is set to dial back his work with DOGE in the coming weeks.
• The White House DOGE office's push to pare down the federal workforce will continue.
• DOGE is set to roll out a key visa effort as it also faces litigation over its work.

Elon Musk may be winding down his work with the Department of Government Efficiency, but that doesn't mean the cost-cutting task force will be ending any time soon.

Musk, the chief executive of both Tesla and SpaceX, announced on Tuesday that he'd be reducing his presence at the White House DOGE office down to one or two days a week so he can focus more of his time on Tesla — which during the first quarter of 2025 saw its earnings plunge 71% year over year.

"There's been some blowback for the time that I've been spending in government with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE," Musk told investors during Tesla's earnings call Tuesday.

Musk added that, although he will be cutting down his time at DOGE starting in May, he will likely continue working with DOGE for "probably the remainder of the president's term, just to make sure that the waste and fraud that we stop does not come roaring back."

In the three months since President Donald Trump established the initiative, unofficially led by Musk, it has worked quickly to reduce government spending and gut the federal workforce.

In its attempt to fulfill its stated purpose of rooting out fraud, waste, and abuse, DOGE has targeted nearly every federal agency.

But DOGE's work is far from over, and in some ways, it's still just getting started.

DOGE-driven RIFs and agency consolidation will continue to reshape the federal workforce

For weeks, Musk's work with DOGE has generated waves of controversy, with many Americans supportive of reform efforts but less willing to back the task force's more aggressive actions in reorienting government departments and agencies.

DOGE has so far set in motion thousands of layoffs.

As of early April, the White House DOGE office's work has led to over 216,000 firings, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The cuts will likely continue.

The IRS could lose nearly a quarter of its workforce, according to The New York Times. There's ongoing litigation regarding DOGE's moves to shut down the Institute of Peace, whose funding is appropriated by Congress. And thousands of jobs could be cut across the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services this year.

Efforts to overhaul and eliminate offices within the State and Justice departments have also been outlined by the administration, moving them closer to the ideological standards set forth by Trump.

Even though Musk will dial back his presence in Washington, his mission of a smaller government isn't leaving the DOGE office.

DOGE has plenty of fights left in court

The legal challenges against many of DOGE's actions — which make up a chunk of the dozens of lawsuits filed against the Trump administration — are just ramping up.

One lawsuit that's likely to have a major impact on DOGE's future — and could determine just how much transparency DOGE is required to give — was filed by the nonprofit watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington in February.

CREW's suit demands that DOGE provide greater transparency into its operations, alleging that DOGE is breaking federal law by not disclosing its records under the Freedom of Information Act.

Last week, the federal judge overseeing the case issued a preliminary injunction granting CREW a partial victory.

Judge Christopher Cooper found that despite DOGE's arguments to the contrary, DOGE acts like a typical government agency and thus is likely subject to federal laws mandating records disclosure. Cooper ordered DOGE to provide CREW with the documents and answers it had requested, including internal emails between DOGE and the Office of Management and Budget.

Cooper also ordered DOGE's official administrator, Amy Gleason, and the leader of DOGE's daily operations, Steven Davis, to provide depositions within 24 days.

A number of other lawsuits have sought to hamstring DOGE's power over the federal bureaucracy.

In another ongoing case, the Center for Taxpayer Rights, along with several other groups, sued the Internal Revenue Service alleging that DOGE had illegally accessed sensitive taxpayer data and systems at the IRS. The outcome of the case could determine just how much authority DOGE has as it seeks to access the personal data of Americans held by federal agencies.

And in National Treasury Employees Union v. Vought — which was filed by the union after the administration fired Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees — a temporary injunction is currently in place blocking the administration from disbanding the agency.

DOGE's next big move may be revenue-generation

The White House DOGE Office is currently developing a system where special immigration visas dubbed as "gold cards" will be issued by the US, replacing the EB-5 visa.

The cost for each card? $5 million.

It's part of what the Trump administration has outlined as a way for highly affluent non-US residents to work in the country and gain a pathway to citizenship.

"They'll have to go through vetting, of course, to make sure they're wonderful world-class global citizens," Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said in February. "The president can give them a green card, and they can invest in America, and we can use that money to reduce our deficit."

The New York Times reported that Musk is working on the software, with the effort being headed by DOGE staffers Marko Elez and Edward Coristine.

Lutnick said the gold card would be unveiled sometime in the coming days.

Its implementation could serve as a lasting legacy of Musk's DOGE tenure.

The White House and DOGE did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.

• Elon Musk says he's stepping back from the White House DOGE office in May.
• Musk says it will allow him to focus more on Tesla.
• Tesla has struggled amid the backlash to Musk's service in President Donald Trump's administration.

Elon Musk said he will step back from the White House DOGE office after spending three months trying to radically reshape the federal government and its workforce.

"Starting next month, I will be allocating far more of my time to Tesla," Musk said Tuesday during Tesla's earnings call, noting that "the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency" was done.

He said he'll continue to spend a day or two a week on government matters, "as long as it is useful," and the president wants him to do so.

Tesla stock jumped about 5% in after-hours trading after Musk announced his reduced role with DOGE. It came on the heels of the company's disappointing quarterly earnings report.

Tesla has also struggled in the months since Musk began advising Trump. Tesla stock declined 44% over the past year, and its first-quarter sales came in way under expectations.

Musk himself said he was leading his companies "with great difficulty" during his time with DOGE.

Under Musk's unofficial leadership, DOGE has targeted a wide swath of federal agencies, including dismantling the US Agency for International Development, attempting to gain access to sensitive data and payment systems at the Internal Revenue Service and Treasury Department, and trying to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Musk has also helped Trump gut the federal workforce through buyout offers to government employees, mass firings of probationary workers, and downsizing of agencies like the National Institutes of Health.

Despite its large-scale targeting of federal agencies and workers, DOGE has not yet come close to its savings goals. Musk first promised that his sweeping DOGE cuts would save taxpayers $2 trillion, but later downgraded that to $1 trillion, and further again to $150 billion,

DOGE's claimed savings have been riddled with mistakes and corrections, including removing $4 billion from its "Wall of Receipts" in March, dropping its real estate savings by $150 million later that month, and lowering its savings claims by over $9 billion over two days in February.

Musk's involvement with DOGE was never meant to be permanent — as a "special government employee," he is not allowed to serve more than 130 days in a 365-day period.

Under Trump's original executive order, the DOGE office can run through July 4, 2026, the 250th anniversary of the nation's independence. Many of DOGE's top leaders are linked to Musk's companies. It's unclear if they'll also be scaling back their presence in DOGE.

Correction: April 22, 2025 — A previous version of this story misstated Musk's announcement regarding his DOGE role. He will be stepping back from DOGE, not leaving entirely.

• Elon Musk says he's stepping back from the White House DOGE office in May.
• Musk says it will allow him to focus more on Tesla.
• Tesla has struggled amid the backlash to Musk's service in President Donald Trump's administration.

Elon Musk has announced he will step back from the White House DOGE office after spending three months trying to radically reshape the federal government and its workforce.

"Starting next month, I will be allocating far more of my time to Tesla," he said, "now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency" is done, Musk said in Tuesday's earnings call.

He said he'll continue to spend a day or two a week on government matters, "as long as it is useful," and the president wants him to do so.

Musk's announcement comes on the heels of Tesla's disappointing quarterly earnings report Tuesday.

Under Musk's unofficial leadership, DOGE has targeted a wide swath of federal agencies, including dismantling the US Agency for International Development, attempting to gain access to sensitive data and payment systems at the Internal Revenue Service and Treasury Department, and trying to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Musk has also helped Trump gut the federal workforce through buyout offers to government employees, mass firings of probationary workers, and downsizing of agencies like the National Institutes of Health.

Despite its large-scale targeting of federal agencies and workers, DOGE has not come close to its savings goals. Musk first promised that his sweeping DOGE cuts would save taxpayers $2 trillion, but later downgraded that to $1 trillion, and further again to $150 billion,

DOGE's claimed savings have been riddled with mistakes and corrections, including removing $4 billion from its "Wall of Receipts" in March, dropping its real estate savings by $150 million later that month, and lowering its savings claims by over $9 billion over two days in February.

Musk's involvement with DOGE was never meant to be permanent — as a "special government employee," he is not allowed to serve more than 130 days in a 365-day period.

Under Trump's original executive order, the DOGE office can run through July 4, 2026, the 250th anniversary of the nation's independence. It's unclear what will happen with the initiative now given that many of DOGE's top leaders are long-time Musk allies.

Correction: April 22, 2025 — A previous version of this story misstated Musk's announcement regarding his DOGE role. He will be stepping back from DOGE, not leaving entirely.