• The White House announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
• The US is the world's top steel importer, sourcing mainly from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.
• Higher tariffs may increase US inflation, affecting industries reliant on these metals.

President Donald Trump on Monday ordered 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, escalating his trade moves against some of the nation's closest allies.

Trump told reporters on Monday that he would announce "reciprocal tariffs," likely on Tuesday or Wednesday, on countries that have placed tariffs on US goods.

"If they are charging us 130% and we're charging them nothing, it's not going to stay that way," Trump said.

Steel and aluminum were among the first products that Trump targeted during his first term. He imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum but later granted some duty-free exemptions for trade partners, including Canada, Mexico, and Brazil.

This time, Trump said he is giving "great consideration" to an exemption for Australia — a country with which the US has a trade surplus.

"We have a surplus with Australia. One of the few. And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes. They're rather far away and they need lots of airplanes," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

Since companies tend to pass the higher price of tariffs on to their customers, the move could boost prices of construction, cars, and travel.

The US is the world's top importer of steel, which is used in a wide range of industries, from construction to automobile manufacturing.

Canada, Mexico, and Brazil were the US' largest steel and iron suppliers last year by dollar value, Census Bureau data showed.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in a Tuesday statement that tariffs hurt businesses and consumers.

"I deeply regret the US decision to impose tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports," she said. "Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered — they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures."

Canada and Mexico were also among the top countries for aluminum and bauxite imports. The United Arab Emirates ranked No. 2, based on 2024 Census Bureau data by dollar value. Aluminum is used for aircraft construction, consumer products like cans, and construction, among other industries.

Shortly after taking office, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico. He later announced that those tariffs would be delayed 30 days after he reached a deal with both countries to strengthen border security.

Trump also placed a 10% tariff on imports from China, and China quickly announced retaliatory tariffs on coal, crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some vehicles. The tariffs announced Monday come in addition to the 10% tariffs on other goods, Bloomberg reported.

Charles Johnson, the president of the US Aluminum Association, said in a February 1 statement: "To ensure that American aluminum wins the future, President Trump should exempt the aluminum metal supply needed for American manufacturers, while continuing to take every possible action at the US border against unfairly traded Chinese aluminum."

Steel inflation may damp demand

There are fears that higher US tariffs on imports from key trade partners could drive up inflation in the US — at least in the short term.

"Constructing and ramping up new smelters/mills can take three or more years," Morgan Stanley analysts Carlos De Alba and Justin Ferrer said in a January 29 report. "Hence, any import tariffs applied to metals or mined products are likely to result in higher domestic prices for local buyers of these materials."

However, high steel prices could weigh on demand that has already been sluggish from the second half of 2024 due to US election uncertainty and seasonality, wrote analysts from the research firm CreditSights in a Tuesday note.

Meanwhile, it's unclear how Pittsburgh-based aluminum company Alcoa would restart capacity after scaling back in the US for years, they wrote.

But Trump's tariffs are politically strategic, the analysts wrote. The levies also curb transshipment through Canada and Mexico.

"The steel industry seems to becoming quasi-government-owned," wrote analysts from research firm CreditSights in a Tuesday note, citing the tariffs and the US blocking Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel.

• The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in its first meeting of 2025.
• Trump has said that he'll "demand" the Fed continue cutting rates.
• Trump's tariff plans could complicate the Fed's decision-making this year.

The nation's central bank is likely to hold interest rates steady this week following President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision. After a series of rate cuts to close out 2024, markets expect the Federal Reserve to hit pause. CME FedWatch, which estimates interest-rate changes based on market predictions, forecasts a nearly 100% chance as of Monday afternoon the Fed will hold rates where they are.

If the central bank holds this week, it could set up a conflict with Trump, who has repeatedly stated his desire for interest rates to continue falling.

"I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world," Trump said at the World Economic Forum's annual event in Davos this past week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated that the central bank makes its decisions independently of politics and acts primarily based on data.

The Fed meeting follows data showing a robust US job market in late 2024. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above economists' expectations, and unemployment dropped to 4.1%.

"In the first half of 2024, we saw unemployment start rising, and it was a pretty good cause for concern," Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said. "But then in the back half of the year, we've seen that the unemployment rate has really stabilized."

That still-healthy labor market means the Fed likely won't feel pressure to rush more rate cuts to boost economic activity. Stahle told Business Insider after the jobs report was published earlier this month that "as long as the labor market is solid, it gives the Federal Reserve some time to work."

Inflation largely slowed in 2024 but closed out the year showing mixed signals, which may also give the Fed a reason to pause rate cuts. Overall CPI increased 2.9% over the year in December, higher than the 2.7% rate in November. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.2% over the year in December, a slowdown from the 3.3% rate the previous three months.

"The Fed is going to need to see a succession of inflation data that would make them feel that the progress toward the 2% target has resumed," Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst for Bankrate, told BI after the release of CPI data earlier this month. "There isn't a whole lot to latch onto to feel that way at this point."

It's unclear how the Fed will act on interest rates over the course of the year, and Trump's trade plans could complicate the central bank's decision-making. The president has threatened tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Russia, and the BRICS nations, and while he has so far used those threats as leverage to achieve policy goals, Trump indicated he is considering placing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1.

Many economists have argued that large and broad tariff increases could fuel a new round of price increases.

The Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections released in December penciled in two interest-rate cuts for 2025, but Powell said during a press conference that month that Trump's trade policies present too much uncertainty to clearly forecast what the Fed will do.

"We just don't know really very much at all about the actual policy, so it's very premature to try to make any kind of conclusion," Powell said in December. "We don't know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size. We don't know whether there'll be retaliatory tariffs. We don't know what the transmission of any of that will be into consumer prices."

• Trump's administration asked federal agencies to compile lists of workers they could easily fire.
• It reflects Trump's goals to reduce government spending and reduce the federal workforce.
• Millions of Americans are employed by the US government. Here's how the agencies break down and what workers make.

President Donald Trump's administration is targeting federal workers' jobs.

On Trump's first day in the White House, his Office of Personnel Management asked agencies to compile lists of federal workers they could easily fire. Trump also signed an executive order on Monday establishing a hiring freeze on new workers to federal agencies.

It reflects the early priorities of the Department of Government Efficiency, which Tesla CEO Elon Musk is leading to cut government waste. Trump signed an executive order on Monday establishing DOGE as part of the White House with a mission of updating the government's technology systems.

While DOGE's stated goals in the executive order are narrower than originally proposed, Musk and Trump have previously voiced support for firing federal workers and eliminating federal agencies.

More than 2 million Americans collect their paychecks from the federal government, so Business Insider looked into which agencies employ the most people and what they pay on average.

The Trump press team and OPM did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

The US government is the largest employer in the country

The US Office of Personnel Management showed eight cabinet-level agencies, which are at the center of the executive branch and have heads that report directly to the president, had more than 100,000 civilian employees as of March.

Almost half a million people were employed in the Department of Veterans Affairs, while the Department of Education had just over 4,000. The Treasury Department had more than 100,000 employees as of March. The overwhelming majority of those — about 94,000 — were employed in the Internal Revenue Service.

Most departments had six-figure average salaries, with the Department of Education and the Department of Energy having the highest averages.

It's still unclear if DOGE or the Trump administration will focus on cuts at specific agencies. In the past, however, Trump has targeted the Department of Education, saying in 2023: "One other thing I'll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, DC, and sending all education and education work and needs back to the states."

Musk said during October remarks that while the commission's goal was to cut spending by reducing head count, he'd consider giving impacted workers "very long severances" that could amount to two years' pay.

"The point is not to be cruel or to have people not be able to pay their mortgage or anything," Musk said during his October remarks, adding, "We just have too many people in the government sector, and they could be more productive elsewhere."

The US Office of Personnel Management says on its website that "severance pay is authorized for full-time and part-time employees who are involuntarily separated from Federal service and who meet other conditions of eligibility." A spokesperson for the office told BI that the severance policy was up to date and that it "cannot comment on the actions of future administrations."

DOGE's goals could also still change, and it's unclear which spending cuts Congress would approve. BI previously reported that the US spent $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024. With Social Security, health programs, and Medicare topping the spending list, they could be on the commission's chopping block. But Medicare and Social Security are forms of mandatory spending that would require legislation to change.

Are you employed by the federal government and have a story to share? Reach out to these reporters at [email protected] and [email protected].

• Wildfires have ravaged Los Angeles for over a week.
• Some Republican lawmakers argued that aid to California should be conditioned on policy changes.
• Data shows California pays more in taxes than it receives in federal spending.

Los Angeles' wildfires spurred a political debate about whether California should continue receiving unconditional federal aid in the wake of the disaster.

Wildfires have ravaged LA for over a week, having burned through more than 40,000 acres, destroyed over 12,300 structures, and killed at least 25 people.

The scope of the damage and the severe impacts on the state's residents have prompted lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to participate in the conversation about whether the federal government should let more funds flow to help stop the wildfires.

Some Republican lawmakers have criticized the current aid going to California and supported conditional aid hinged on policy changes in the state. GOP Rep. Warren Davidson, for example, recently told Fox News that he supports more federal aid for wildfires, but policy changes like better forest management should accompany it.

"If they want the money, then there should be consequences where they have to change their policies," he said. Davidson also wrote on X on January 12 that California Gov. Gavin Newsom's executive order to help wildfire victims rebuild their homes was "reasonable," but he said more action is needed on water management and fire prevention.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson expressed a similar sentiment, telling reporters on January 13 that "there should probably be conditions" on any wildfire aid that California receives.

But despite those GOP criticisms of potential aid to California, data shows that the state has actually received less from the federal government than the taxes it paid.

The Rockefeller Institute of Government, a public policy think tank, found that in fiscal year 2022, California's federal tax receipts per capita was $17,731 while its federal expenditures per capita, excluding temporary COVID-19 spending measures, was $14,492 — or a difference of $3,239 taxes paid minus spending received. A dozen other states had higher values of taxes paid than federal spending distributed in a state per capita, including New York and Illinois.

You can hover over the map below to see what this looked like by state.

Some commentators pointed out the disparity between California's taxes and spending. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in a Substack post, which also highlighted similar data from the Rockefeller Institute, that California subsidizes states, "red states in particular, through the federal budget."

Even on the campaign trail, President-elect Trump hinted that future funding for wildfires could hinge on California's policies. "We're going to take care of your water situation, and we'll force it down his throat," Trump said of Newsom during an October campaign rally in California, referring to the state's water policies. "And we'll say: Gavin, if you don't do it, we're not giving you any of that fire money that we send you all the time for all the fire, forest fires that you have."

Trump posted on Truth Social on January 8: "One of the best and most beautiful parts of the United States of America is burning down to the ground. It's ashes, and Gavin Newscum should resign. This is all his fault!!!"

Newsom has pushed back on Trump and other Republican lawmakers' comments on the wildfires, recently telling CNN: "People are literally fleeing, people have lost their lives, kids lost their schools, families completely torn asunder, churches burning down, and this guy wanted to politicize it," referring to Trump.

The Trump transition team, along with Davidson and Johnson's offices, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

While it's too early to calculate the costs of the wildfire damage, a recent estimate from AccuWeather found the price tag could total between $250 billion and $275 billion. Local and federal governments would likely pick up some of the tab, BI previously reported, along with private and state insurers.

President Joe Biden also said during January 14 remarks that those impacted by the wildfires will receive a one-time payment of $770 to help them quickly purchase necessities.

"Although the federal government is going to cover 100% of the cost for the next 180 days for things like firefighter overtime pay, debris removal, temporary shelters, it's going to cost tens of billions of dollars to get Los Angeles back to where it was," Biden said. "So, we're going to need Congress to step up to provide funding to get this done."

• The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week by 25 basis points.
• Inflation has ticked back up in recent months, and economists think the job market is still robust.
• The outlook for 2025 is more uncertain while the Fed waits to see how Trump will impact the economy.

The final interest-rate decision of the year is coming this week, and it's likely to give Americans some more financial relief.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce another interest-rate cut. As of Monday afternoon, CME FedWatch, which estimates interest-rate changes based on market predictions, forecasts a close to 100% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points.

Data out last week showed overall inflation has sped up. The consumer price index's year-over-year growth rate rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October before climbing to 2.7% in November. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been holding steady, with a year-over-year change of 3.3% from September to November.

Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, said at The New York Times' DealBook Conference on December 4 that "we're in a very good place with the economy," but inflation is still not quite where the central bank wants it to be.

"The labor market is better, and the downside risks appear to be less in the labor market, growth is definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation is coming a little higher," Powell said. "So the good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral."

Slower job growth and higher unemployment may add fuel to the argument for continuing to cut, while a tighter-than-expected labor market could lead the central bank to pause while waiting to see if wage growth and inflation speed up.

"I don't think there's that much cause for concern in the labor market data that would lead to them suspending their plan to cut," Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider.

Pollak said the quits rate, the latest reading of which was 2.1% in October, is "consistent with a non-inflationary labor market" and that "wage growth at 4% over the year should be sustainable given current productivity growth." Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said the US economy continues to add jobs above population growth and has low unemployment.

The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The three-month average job gain in November was around 173,000, lower than early 2024 but still strong.

"There are still many reasons to be optimistic about the labor market, but also you don't, as a Federal Reserve policymaker, you don't want to wait until things start looking bad to react to that because by then, you might be too late," Stahle said.

The interest rate outlook for 2025 is a bit more uncertain. President-elect Donald Trump has already posed broad tariff threats on key trading partners with the US, including China, Canada, and Mexico. If he implements those tariffs, consumers would likely face higher prices on impacted goods. The Fed could respond to inflationary trade pressures by once again raising interest rates.

However, Powell has so far declined to comment on any policy changes the Fed would consider in response to Trump's tariff threats, saying during the DealBook conference that too much about what Trump might do with tariffs is unknown.

"We can't really start making policy on that at this time. That is something that lies well into the future. We have to let this play out," Powell said, emphasizing that the Fed is making decisions about what's happening in the economy now and not six months from now.

Still, some economists expect 2025 to be another strong year for the economy. Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY, said that the US "remains on a solid growth trajectory supported by healthy employment and income growth, robust consumer spending, and strong productivity momentum that is helping tame inflationary pressures."

"We expect these positive dynamics will carry into 2025 allowing the Fed to pursue gradual, but cautious, policy recalibration," Daco said in written commentary.

• Donald Trump's latest tariff threat is to levy 100% duties on goods from the nine BRICS countries.
• He framed the threat as a bargaining chip, warning BRICS against competing with the US dollar.
• The US imported billions of dollars of goods from BRICS in 2023, including apparel and electronics.

President-elect Donald Trump's latest trade threat on nine countries could affect key US imports, risking price increases if the tariffs are implemented.

In a Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump targeted the BRICS group, which comprises nine countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. All have pushed to curb the global dominance of the US dollar. He wrote that he would impose a 100% tariff on those countries' goods unless they committed to not creating another currency that competes with the dollar.

"There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America," Trump wrote.

Business Insider looked at the top goods the US imports from BRICS nations, including medicine, apparel, and electronics. While Trump appears to be using the tariff threats as a negotiating tool and could choose not to implement them at the scale he's proposing, the top imports from the targeted countries could see prices increase even with smaller tariffs.

Census Bureau trade data showed that in 2023, the BRICS nations together accounted for about $578 billion in US imports. China was responsible for the lion's share of that trade, with about $427 billion.

In 2023, the US imported $66.7 billion in cellphones and other household goods from China, $37.4 billion in computers, and $32 billion in toys, games, and sporting goods.

The US imported $151 billion in goods from the remaining eight BRICS nations, including over $11 billion in pharmaceutical preparations, followed by nearly $9 billion in gem diamonds, $6.3 billion in crude oil, and $6.1 billion in cotton apparel and household goods. India accounted for much of the imports from BRICS nations other than China.

Trump is targeting this group because some BRICS leaders have previously suggested acting to reduce their countries' reliance on the US dollar. Last year, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed creating a common currency among the BRICS nations.

The tariff threat on BRICS came just days after Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada that would remain in effect "until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!" He also warned of a 10% tariff on imports from China on top of any additional tariffs put in place on the country.

Russia has already responded to Trump's tariff threat. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that if the US used "economic force to compel countries to use the dollar," it would empower countries to shift to other currencies for international trade.

Some companies, including Walmart and Columbia Sportswear, have already said they are preparing to increase prices should Trump implement tariffs on key trading partners.

The Trump team did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the impact of Trump's tariff threats on prices. Trump has previously said tariffs will not hurt Americans, misleadingly calling them "a tax on another country" (tariffs imposed by the US are paid by US importers).

During Trump's first term, he threatened tariffs against Mexico as a response to illegal immigration over the southern US border but later withdrew the plan. Sen. Bill Hagerty told NBC News on Sunday that trade had long been used as a "strategic tool," and he said he supported Trump using tariffs as leverage to achieve his priorities.

"We need to take a very hard look at countries that don't have our best interests at heart, countries that are allowing our borders to be violated," Hagerty said, "and use those tariffs as a tool to achieve our ends."

• President Donald Trump announced tariffs on goods imported from China, Canada, and Mexico.
• Mexico's tariffs are delayed a month after Trump reached a deal with the country's president.
• Here are the goods imported into the US the most from these three countries.

When evaluating how President Donald Trump's new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could impact Americans, start by looking at the goods imported most from those countries.

The biggest categories are oil, electronics, and vehicles.

While Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico have already been delayed by a month due to a deal he struck with the country's president on Monday, February 4 is still the expected start date for the 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and 10% on China. He said that the tariffs were intended to crack down on drug and border policy, particularly to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US.

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has already announced retaliatory tariffs on the US in response. He said on Saturday that "we need to respond in a way that is appropriate, that is measured but forceful, that meets the moment." Trudeau and Trump are expected to have talks about the tariffs at 3 p.m. ET Monday.

While details surrounding the implementation of the tariffs are still unclear, the proposed tariffs could affect a wide variety of goods Americans use daily. The Census Bureau reported that in 2023, the US imported about $1.3 trillion in goods from China, Mexico, and Canada combined.

From Canada, the top 2023 imports included over $92 billion worth of crude oil, about $34 billion in passenger cars, and almost $9 billion in natural gas.

The US imported over $65 billion worth of car parts from Mexico in 2023, along with about $26 billion in computers, nearly $20 billion in crude oil, and almost $14 billion in medicinal equipment.

China, meanwhile, is a major supplier of electronics to the US. The census data showed that in 2023, the US imported nearly $67 billion in cellphones and other household goods from China, over $37 billion in computers, and more than $32 billion in games, toys, and sporting goods.

Some companies have already been preparing to increase prices as a result of Trump's tariff plans on the campaign trail. Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC on November 19 that price hikes are likely on the horizon if Trump implements his tariffs: "We never want to raise prices. Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers."

Additionally, Trump's plan could spark legal issues. Arturo Sarukhán, a former Mexican ambassador to the US, wrote in a November post on X that the tariffs would violate the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, a free-trade agreement negotiated by Trump in his first term that went into effect in July 2020.

Companies and economists have said that Trump's tariff plans would increase consumer prices. BI previously reported that Trump's broad tariff proposals were likely to increase prices across the board, from clothes and footwear to computers and video games.

Trump has previously denied that would be the case. "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," Trump said in an August speech. However, he told reporters on Sunday night that Americans will experience "some pain" as a result of the tariffs, but he said they will overall be beneficial for the country.

The tariffs implemented during Trump's first term did not significantly influence inflation, but his recently announced tariffs are broader and could have a larger impact on prices.

At this point, however, Trump's proposals could still change. During his first term in 2019, Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico with the aim of strengthening the border, but following criticism from lawmakers — including some Republicans — he withdrew the plan.