• Hurt by higher interest rates, commercial real estate should see a modest rebound in 2025.
• Lingering inflation, however, could complicate the recovery by pushing up long-term interest rates.
• Industrial warehouses, a star of the sector, is poised to stand out in 2025.

The commercial property sector has had a bruising few years as rising interest rates pushed down values, complicated refinancing deals for hundreds of billions of dollars of expiring mortgages, and stymied investment.

In the office market, the situation was even more severe as hundreds of millions of square feet of space across the nation face accelerated obsolescence. Employees have embraced hybrid and remote work as a permanent offshoot of the pandemic, sapping demand for lesser quality space.

In recent months, however, the industry has felt relief from three successive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that have shaved a percentage point off the fed funds rate — a benchmark for short-term lending rates. More cuts are expected in 2025. Resilient economic growth, meanwhile, has propelled demand for commercial space, including apartments, warehouses, retail stores, and hotel rooms. Some developers have even grown bullish on top-tier office projects as tenants flock to high end space.

In 2025, commercial real estate experts have signaled cautious optimism that the sector's rebound will continue, while also highlighting the challenges that could stymie growth.

Here are three trends for the industry to watch in 2025:

While the Fed has cut rates, relief hasn't arrived for the majority of loans

Of the roughly $4.7 trillion of total outstanding commercial real estate debt, about two-thirds is tied to long-term interest rates benchmarked against the 10-year Treasury yield, according to an estimate by the Mortgage Bankers Association. After dipping in the third quarter, long-term interest rates have jumped back up to the mid-4% range, close to where rates were before the Fed began cutting and far higher than where the 10-year was in recent years. The 10-year Treasury rate dipped below half a percentage point in 2020, its lowest level ever.

In 2025, observers expect long-term rates to hold steady, even if the Fed continues to trim short-term rates.

"The 10-year Treasury yield, that's really driven less now by anticipation of what the Fed might do and more by long-term expectations about economic growth and inflation and federal budget deficits," Jamie Woodwell, the MBA's head of commercial real estate research, said.

That could continue to complicate commercial real estate sales and refinancing deals.

The MBA projects that $570 billion of commercial real estate loans will mature in 2025, with banks holding about 38% of the overall inventory of outstanding debt in the sector.

Tomasz Piskorski a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, said that 14% of commercial loans overall are tied to distressed assets that are now worth less than their debt and that 43% of commercial real estate loans "may face significant cash flow and refinancing issues." He has warned there could be tens of billions of dollars of potential losses for the banking sector and other lenders.

The real estate services giant CBRE, meanwhile, has forecast a modest 7.5% increase in investment sales activity, predicting about $410 billion of transactions in 2025. More sales would help buyers and sellers discover asset pricing and is considered a positive sign for a market recovery.

Richard Barkham, CBRE's chief economic economist, warned of lingering higher long-term interest rates that could dampen the rebound.

"Over the next four or five years we're likely to get upside shocks in inflation," Barkham said. "That points to an era of interest rates higher for longer."

Incoming Trump administration has generated optimism

Some of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign promises to enact tariffs on foreign goods, pressure the Fed for lower short term interest rates, and deport undocumented immigrants from the labor supply could spur inflation, reigniting problems in the commercial real estate financing market.

Nonetheless, the industry has been largely positive on the incoming administration.

Investors "expect better tax issues, they expect less regulation, they expect some real estate specific stuff like opportunity zones will get a bit of a boost," said Jim Costello, the co-head of real assets research at the data firm MSCI, referencing the opportunity zone program from President Trump's first term in office. Opportunity zones allowed real estate investors the chance to defer and avoid capital gains taxes if they reinvested investment proceeds in property projects in designated zones around the country.

President Trump has also sought to hire real estate executives in his administration, meaning that top officials could have an familiarity with the real estate business and its priorities. Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street billionaire who is also chairman of the large commercial real estate services firm Newmark Group, for instance, has been picked by Trump to lead the Commerce Department.

After a rocky 2024, industrial is still a darling

Industrial warehouse space boomed during the pandemic as American shoppers migrated online, boosting the need for logistics spaces that served e-commerce and also to onshore storage for a disrupted global supply chain.

A record total of roughly a billion square feet of industrial space was absorbed on balance by occupiers in 2022 and 2023, according to Craig Meyer, president of JLL's industrial leasing group in the Americas. That activity was enough to fill a vast pipeline of new space that was being added to the market. In 2022 and 2023, 1.1 billion square feet of new industrial space was delivered, according to JLL — also a record.

In 2024, however, demand could no longer keep pace with surging supply – stalling rental growth and pushing up vacancy.

About 375 million square feet of new space was added to the industrial market in 2024 – the third highest year on record after 2022 and 2023. But only about 111.3 million square feet of space has been absorbed on net, the lowest year of absorption in more than a decade. Vacancy has jumped to 6.8% from 4.9% a year ago. In the second quarter of 2022, vacancy had fallen as low as 3.3%.

Meyer said that the first half of 2024 was the nadir of the dip and expects a resurgent 2025.

"We had a contentious election coming up," Meyer said. "People were uncertain where interest rates were going."

In 2025, Meyer and other experts, including Barkham, CBRE's economist, see a strengthening industrial market as new supply dwindles and demand picks back up.

"The sectors that are big and improving and likely to lead investor interest are multifamily and industrial," Barkham said.

Some 268.9 million square feet of industrial space is presently under construction, according to JLL, the smallest pipeline since 2019. E-commerce, one of the biggest drivers of warehouse demand, continues to grow. According to CBRE, online sales are expected to absorb 30% of consumer spending by the end of the decade, up from 23% today, adding tailwinds to the segment.

The traditional English carol "The Twelve Days of Christmas" has long been a favorite during the holiday season, standing the test of time through the centuries and inspiring amusing parodies like Bob Rivers' "Twelve Pains of Christmas."

But the song – which counts up from Christmas to Epiphany on Jan. 6 – has also become the peg for a whimsical way to gauge year-over-year inflation. Pennsylvania-based PNC Bank and other financial institutions have tracked the costs of each set of gifts from "Twelve Drummers Drumming" to a "Partridge in a Pear Tree" to see exactly how much it might cost a man to deliver each to his true love.

PNC’s Christmas Price Index indicated the overall cost of the song’s gifts increased 5.4% since 2023, totaling just under $50,000. 

Meanwhile, the Texas-based business company Swyft Filings noted in 2023 that costs would also vary depending on each state. Taxes, regulations and other factors would be the most likely variables. The company found California, Hawaii and Washington to be the most expensive and Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama to be the least expensive, given that variation.

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Here's a breakdown of the costs counting down from the 12th day.

12 Drummers Drumming

PNC Bank cited wage inflation as the driving factor behind the increase in renting a 12-piece drum corps this year. Their estimated cost was $4,017; an increase of 15.6% over 2023.

Several websites estimated the average cost of a drummer for two hours was between $250 and $500, depending on the set. Taking the median of that rate and multiplying by a dozen drummers places the cost around $4,500, plus gratuity, of course.

11 Pipers Piping

Eleven flutists, or hiring an 11-piece wind ensemble, bear a similar cost-per-head as drummers.

In that regard, PNC Bank estimated the same 15.6% increase as the dozen drummers, with a final cost of $3,715.

10 Lords-a-Leaping

In the British political system, a lord is a title of peerage or nobility dating back to feudal England, and the House of Lords is the current name for the upper chamber of Parliament. 

Placing the phrase in an American context, it remains illegal to physically or proverbially purchase a senator for any purpose including leaping, and public corruption has often been a topic in the media.

However, some estimates have been published on what the cost would be to pay 10 senators or lords to jump.

PNC reported 10 lords-a-leaping would be the most expensive purchase of the 12, with an estimated 2024 cost of $15,579.65 – an increase of 7.2% since 2023.

Nine Ladies Dancing

According to the website GigSalad, the average cost of a dance troupe for a 30-minute performance is between $200 and $400. The freelancing platform UpWork listed dancers for hire ranging from $30 per hour to more than $100 per hour.

The median cost per dancer per hour multiplied by nine comes out to $405 for a half-hour.

In PNC’s tracking, nine ladies dancing in the form of a professional troupe would cost $8,557 for an undisclosed set time, up 3% in the past year.

Eight Maids-a-Milking

Milk prices are back on the upswing in recent months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In November, the average price-per-gallon of whole milk was $4.14, an increase from a flat $4 that time last year.

The ubiquitous beverage saw a spike during COVID and settled in the two years since, but is on the increase once more. 

Adding milkmaids to the equation, PNC Bank estimated a cost of $58, unchanged from 2023.

Seven Swans-a-Swimming

One Midwest swan farm listed the price-per-bird at $400. In 2020, the city of Lakeland, Florida, was dealing with an overpopulation of about 80 swans on a lake in the community outside Tampa. The going price then was also $400, according to CNN.

Listings on BirdsNow ranged from $400 to $2500, with a pair being markedly more expensive than two individuals. Altogether, PNC estimated the total cost to exceed $13,000, with no increase over 2023.

Six Geese-a-laying

While a South Dakota goose farm listed the price of an 8- to 10-pound goose for consumption at $140 each – calculating to $8,400 for a half-dozen, the cost of live geese that can lay eggs was different.

Prices for live goslings averaged $40 each online, or $240 for six.

PNC’s Christmas index, however, calculated the full cost at $900, or 15% higher than 2023.

Five Gold Rings

On Monday, gold futures hovered around $2,600 per ounce. While PNC estimated the total cost of five gold rings to be $1,245, the actual value may vary depending on the carats, size of ring and other factors.

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Four Calling Birds

There is some debate over whether the original lyric is really "four colly birds" versus "four calling birds." A colly bird is a blackbird in English vernacular. The term "colly" has its roots in how something looks when blackened by coal dust.

The cost of a live blackbird is between $150 and $225, and PNC estimates four to cost just under $600 – which indicates the lower end of that price spectrum. The bank estimated the cost remained unchanged since 2023.

Three French Hens

The French Bresse hen is considered one of the most sought-after chickens in the world.

Butchers in Paris were selling French hens for €40 per kilo or about $92 per pound. Live poults purchased from farms in the United States ranged from a few dollars up to about $250 as of Monday.

In PNC’s index, the cost of three French hens increased 5% from 2023 to about $347.

Two Turtledoves

In 1992’s "Home Alone 2: Lost in New York," Macaulay Culkin’s Kevin McCallister visits "Duncan’s Toy Chest" – a play on Manhattan’s iconic FAO Schwarz department store.

The elderly owner, played by Eddie Bracken, offers Kevin any one of his store’s Christmas tree’s ornaments.

Mr. Duncan tells Kevin he should keep one turtledove and give the second to "a very special person."

"Turtledoves are a symbol of friendship and love," he explains. "As long as you each have a turtledove, you’ll be friends forever."

Kevin ultimately gives the second turtledove to Brenda Fricker’s "Pigeon Lady" at the end of the film after she helps capture the movie's villains, Daniel Stern’s Marv and Joe Pesci’s Harry.

TWELVE DAYS OF CHRISTMAS EVE ON FOX NATION

While that cinematic pair may have been priceless, PNC’s index placed the price of a pair at $750, and European turtledoves themselves are considered a threatened species.

And a Partridge in a Pear Tree

The Home Depot listed Bartlett pear trees at about $58 this week. 

Additionally, in an American context, Alaska’s state bird – the Willow Ptarmigan – is a more common type of western partridge. 

"Huns" or Hungarian gray partridges were also introduced in the Lower 48’s northwest in the early 20th century.

Costs of both live ptarmigan and ptarmigan meat were unavailable on Monday, but PNC estimated the combined cost as $160. The bank reported the cost of the bird remained the same, but the pear tree increased in price since 2023.

In its reporting on its own estimations, PNC officials said on the bank’s website that the internet has made the calculation and potential availability of the items in the ancient English carol much more accessible in the 40 years it has calculated their costs.

"Believe it or not, we're still seeing the cause and effect of the pandemic-inflation hangover, even nearly five years later," PNC Asset Management Group chief investment officer Amanda Agati said in a statement.

"With years of steep price increases, we'd think inflation has nowhere to go, but we'd be wrong. This latest PNC CPI is an accurate reflection of what we're seeing in the market."

Online purchases of the lyrical items were calculated to be more expensive online than at a brick-and-mortar store due to shipping costs.

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The overall cost of the 12 Days of Christmas increased 133% in the past four decades, with factors such as minimum wage increases particularly affecting the for-hire gifts such as pipers and drummers.

If an enterprising fellow were to purchase his beau the song's 364 total gifts from the 12-day giving spree, it would rise from 2023 by 3.6% to an estimated cost of $209,272.

Christmas Day is a time for Americans and others across the world who celebrate the holiday to spend time with loved ones while participating in time-honored traditions – and members of Congress are no exception.

Far away from the bustle and drama of Capitol Hill, lawmakers opened up to Fox News Digital about their favorite ways to spend the Christmas holiday, both past and present.

"Jacquie and I are excited to have the whole crew under one roof for an ice cold Minnesota Christmas, complete with four grandkids who're getting a crash course in the joy (and noise!) of an Emmer family holiday," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told Fox News Digital. "The Christmas Village is all set up, and ugly sweaters are a must."

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In South Dakota, Republican Sen. Mike Rounds has more than 100 members of his family in attendance each year for Christmas Eve to eat homemade chicken noodle soup, his office told Fox News Digital.

"Senator Rounds’ late wife Jean was also very talented at making cross stitch and needlework art, and Senator Rounds and his children decorate the whole house with all of her handmade Christmas art," his office said.

Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., recalled a Christmas scavenger hunt that her parents orchestrated.

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"My parents always set up a treasure hunt on Christmas Eve. My four siblings and I had to de-code a series of clues that led us to various parts of the house to find the next clue, that eventually led us to the final clue, which was where the presents we opened were found," Tenney said. 

She said locations included "the trunk of the car, the dryer, or a storage closet."

"It was really fun, and my parents made the clues more and more clever and challenging each year," Tenney said. "Then we went to our neighbor's across the street for their annual Christmas Eve party. The entire neighborhood was invited. Afterward, many of us, including our Jewish neighbors, went to midnight mass at the Presbyterian Church."

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., meanwhile, said her favorite Christmas tradition was skiing with her grandchildren in Star Valley in western Wyoming.

And for Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., Christmas means family dinners and board games.

"We go to Christmas Eve Mass at the parish I grew up in and go to dinner at my parents' house," Schmitt told Fox News Digital. "Larger family gets together after Christmas for [an] epic game of RISK."

Presidents have historically developed their own Christmas traditions as they make their unique marks on the White House during their terms. In recent years, Christmases have been spent in an array of places by commanders in chief, from Hawaii, to Texas to Mar-a-Lago. 

President Joe Biden opted in 2021 to move his family's Christmas celebration to the White House, rather than its usual location in his home state of Delaware. The extended Biden family reportedly attended Mass on Christmas Eve and then returned to the White House where they enjoyed a pasta dinner and had a sleepover, which are traditions in the family. 

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Before him, former President Donald Trump — who will soon take office again — spent Christmases in Florida at his Mar-a-Lago estate, per reports. During their holidays in Florida, Trump and first lady Melania Trump attended Christmas services at a local Episcopal church in Palm Beach, where the two married in 2005.

Former President Barack Obama established a tradition as president of spending the Christmas holiday with his family in Hawaii. As reported, the president's Christmases in the state were relatively quiet, spent with friends and family. However, they established a tradition of visiting a local Marine base to thank soldiers for their service on Christmas Day.

BRIEF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN USHERED IN BEFORE CHRISTMAS AS SENATE WORKS TO ADVANCE HOUSE BILL

Prior to Obama, President George Bush chose to spend his Christmases near to the nation's capital at the Camp David presidential retreat. This was something first established by his father, former President George H. W. Bush. In 2008, the Bush family reportedly celebrated what was their 12th Christmas at Camp David.

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Further back, U.S. presidents have held a variety of events to mark the Christmas season at the White House, some more elaborate than others. In 1835, President Andrew Jackson famously hosted an indoor "snowball" fight for children at his "frolic" party. The party included games, dancing and a festive dinner and ended with a snowball fight, during which the participants used specially made cotton balls. 

President Franklin Roosevelt had his own tradition of reading Charles Dickens' "A Christmas Carol" aloud after a Christmas Eve meal. 

SENATE REPUBLICANS TRY TO FAST-TRACK EMERGENCY MILITARY PAY AS THEY BRACE FOR SHUTDOWN

According to the White House Historical Association, there is a popular myth suggesting that President Theodore Roosevelt banned trees from being cut down and placed in the White House as decoration. This was prompted in part by the fact that the Roosevelts did not mark the holiday with a tree. 

The WHHA noted that Christmas trees in every home is a relatively modern tradition. 

Per the association, Roosevelt's son Archie started his own tradition by sneaking a small tree into the White House and placing it in a closet. He decorated it before revealing the tree to his family and starting a new holiday tradition. 

Nigel’s back, and producers have revealed he’s got a long-term storyline

• Netflix has produced some of the most captivating and divisive shows of 2024.
• It hooked viewers with a mystery in "Fool Me Once," and stoked controversy with "Baby Reindeer."
• Here are the nine most talked-about shows on Netflix in 2024.

2024 has been a huge year for Netflix, with the streamer's shows sparking huge conversations.

Here are the nine most talked-about shows on Netflix in 2024.

"Fool Me Once"

Harlan Coben's binge-worthy thrillers, with their twist-filled storylines, are a constant favorite among Netflix subscribers, and "Fool Me Once" was no different.

Released in January, the series followed ex-soldier Maya Stern (Michelle Keegan), who spots her dead husband on a nanny cam inside her house. As she tries to find the truth, she reexamines her time in the military, as well her sister's murder, which took place before her husband's death.

Audiences couldn't get enough, and flocked to social media to unpack the story's plot holes and identify filming locations.

According to Netflix, it was one of the streamer's most-watched shows of all time, racking up 98 million views.

"American Nightmare"

In 2024, Netflix released several buzzy docuseries, starting with "American Nightmare."

The three-part series examines the kidnapping of Denise Huskins, which police in Vallejo, California claimed she faked with her boyfriend.

The show charts how the media hounded Huskins and her partner, Aaron Quinn, as a result of the accusations, and also details her horrific kidnapping.

It got subscribers making comparisons to "Gone Girl," and talking about how the media sometimes portrays victims.

"Baby Reindeer"

"Baby Reindeer" is arguably the most talked about show of the year. The show follows Donny Dunn (Richard Gadd), an aspiring comedian, who is stalked by an older woman called Martha Scott (Jessica Gunning), after he serves her at the pub where he works.

The semi-autobiographical drama was partly based on Gadd's experiences of stalking and sexual assault. The show was presented as a true story, which turned audiences into armchair detectives as they searched for the real people the characters were based on.

From there, the real story only got more twisted as a woman named Fiona Harvey came forward as the person Scott is based on. She is suing Netflix for defamation, and the case goes to trial in 2025.

"The Man with 1000 Kids"

The streamer continued to explore unbelievable true stories with "The Man with 1000 Kids." It followed families from different countries who discovered they used the same sperm donor, a Dutchman named Jonathan Jacob Meijer.

The series highlighted the risks of prolific sperm donors, and Meijer's insistence that what he did wasn't wrong. Many viewers were particularly shocked at the allegation that Meijer mixed his sperm with another donor's, something he denied.

Meijer said that the number of children he's fathered is actually 550, and has threatened to sue Netflix for defamation.

"Dancing For the Devil"

"Dancing for the Devil: The 7M TikTok Cult" exposed the darker side of fun dance videos on TikTok. Its main focus is Melanie Wilking, a content creator and dancer, who claims that Miranda Derrick, her sister, was brainwashed by a cult-like organization called the Shekinah Church.

The religious group is run by pastor Robert Shinn, who also runs a talent management company for content creators and dancers. In the docuseries, Wilking claimed its members cut ties with their loved ones after joining the church.

In a statement on social media, Derrick denied that Shekinah was the reason for her family troubles, which only fueled further discussion. In 2022, Shinn has denied the accusations of abuse made against both himself, and Shekinah church.

"Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story"

"Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story" was bound to cause controversy after the families of victims accused its creator, Ryan Murphy, of not contacting them before using their stories in season one: "Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story." Murphy said he contacted them but they didn't reply.

The second season of the "Monster" anthology series tells of how the brothers murdered their parents, alleging they experienced years of abuse. It caused uproar over the depiction of the Menendez brothers, including a moment that suggested the siblings were in a sexual relationship.

However, it also ignited sympathy for their case and opened up the possibility that the pair could be released from prison.

"Nobody Wants This"

Most of the other entries on this list got viewers talking because of controversies, murder, and mayhem. But subscribers flocked to watch "Nobody Wants This" partly because it's so wholesome.

The rom-com follows Joanne (Kristen Bell), a sex-positive podcaster, and Noah (Adam Brody), a rabbi, as they navigate their vastly different lives while dating.

Viewers were particularly enamored by Noah's emotional support of Joanne. But the moment when he kisses her while holding her face had everyone swooning.

"The Perfect Couple"

"The Perfect Couple" follows Amelia Sacks (Eve Hewson), as she prepares to marry her boyfriend Benji Winbury (Billy Howle) at his family's lavish home on Nantucket.

When her best friend is found dead on the morning of the wedding, Sacks' life is turned upside down.

Aside from Nicole Kidman's frosty performance as Greer Winbury, the family's steely matriarch, the murder mystery's opening sequence surprised viewers because of its fun, flashmob-style dance to Meghan Trainor's "Criminals."

"Black Doves"

"Black Doves" didn't spark controversy, nor did it dive into a horrifying true crime story. But it did feature Keira Knightley as Helen Webb, a badass spy out to avenge her lover's death, which was enough to grab viewers' attention.

Some noticed that it's the latest in a string of spy shows set in London, following "Slow Horses," "The Agency," and "The Day of the Jackal."

But "Black Doves" stands out largely because of Knightley's ferocious performance and her killer outfit choices as a spy masquerading as the wife of a UK government minister.

• Dr. Michael Roizen is a longevity expert who claims to have reversed his age by 20 years.
• There are a few bare minimum things you can do to live longer, he said.
• These include getting vaccinated, playing brain-training games, and eating salmon.

It can be tough to find the time to take care of our health. But a doctor who claims to have reversed his age by 20 years said that focusing on six basics could help us stay healthy for longer.

Dr. Michael Roizen, 78, the chief wellness officer at Cleveland Clinic, told Business Insider his "biological age" is 57.6, based on the health of his organs and his risk of chronic disease. (There's no agreed definition of biological age or how it can be measured).

Roizen is all about finding lifestyle changes that can help people live healthily for as long as possible. But he said "there are small things and easy things to do that make a big difference" to longevity, even if people can't overhaul their lifestyles.

Below are the six things he thinks everyone should do to live longer.

Walk more

Roizen tries to do 10,000 steps a day as part of his weekly workout routine, and thinks that everyone should "try to walk a little more."

To add movement to his commute, for instance, he parks his car as far away from his work as possible and walks the rest of the way.

Walking fewer than 10,000 steps — a somewhat arbitrary number with its origins in marketing — still has benefits. One 2023 study by researchers at the University of Cambridge, UK, found that people who walked 75 minutes or less a week had a lower risk of dying from any cause or developing cardiovascular diseases and cancer.

Eat avocado, salmon, and olive oil

BI previously reported on the seven foods Roizen eats for longevity. But just eating three of these — avocado, salmon, and olive oil — will still merit health benefits, he said. Studies have linked all three to a lower risk of cardiovascular disease.

Have strong relationships

Nurturing friendships is a "fun" way to boost your health and longevity, Roizen said. Plus, "it's always better to do things with other people," he said.

Rose Anne Kenny, professor of aging and lead researcher on The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing at Trinity College Dublin, said that having strong social connections is just as important for longevity as a healthy diet and getting enough exercise, BI previously reported.

Play speed of processing games

Roizen recommended playing speed of processing games, which are brain-training games that research suggests might help improve how quickly your brain works. Roizen recommended two: Double Decision and Freeze Frame.

Referencing a 2017 study published in Alzheimer's & Dementia, Roizen said that practicing these games could reduce the risk of dementia. The study found that older adults who played 10 sessions of these games over an initial six-week period, and then did top-up sessions 11 and 35 months later, had a 29% lower risk of dementia after 10 years.

Roizen recommended playing these games for two hours a week for five weeks to try to replicate the study results.

Take a multivitamin

Research is mixed on whether taking multivitamins is beneficial for longevity.

Roizen cited studies that found that the risks of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and dementia were reduced in people who took multivitamins for years.

But, recent research has suggested that these findings aren't necessarily indicative that multivitamins are as effective outside study conditions. For example, a large study on over 390,000 people published in JAMA Network Open earlier this year concluded that taking a multivitamin wasn't linked to longevity. And the US Preventive Services Task Force doesn't recommend the general public take multivitamins because there's not enough evidence to show that it has any benefit.

Roizen said that he takes a multivitamin anyway to keep the overall levels of vitamins in his body stable.

Get your flu shot

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that everyone aged six months and above should get a flu vaccine every season.

But Roizen also takes it for the potential healthy aging benefits. A 2022 review of studies published in Ageing Research Reviews suggested that vaccinating older people against the flu could also help prevent dementia, possibly because it decreases inflammation in the brain.

• The top researcher for a major study on guaranteed basic income says the findings are "nuanced."
• The study, backed by Sam Altman, gave $1,000 a month to 1,000 low-income participants.
• Elizabeth Rhodes says while the study showed benefits, it's not a quick fix for economic insecurity.

The lead researcher for Sam Altman's basic-income study says guaranteed no-strings payments are not a silver bullet for issues facing lower-income Americans.

Elizabeth Rhodes, the research director for the Basic Income Project at Open Research, told Business Insider that while basic-income payments are "beneficial in many ways," the programs also have "clear limitations."

Universal basic income, or UBI, typically refers to making recurring cash payments to all adults in a population, regardless of their wealth or employment status, and with no restrictions on how they spend the money.

Rhodes headed up one of the largest studies in the space, which focused specifically on those on low incomes rather than making universal payments to adults across all economic demographics.

The three-year experiment, backed by OpenAI boss Altman, provided 1,000 low-income participants with $1,000 a month without any stipulations for how they could spend it. The study aimed to explore how unconditional cash payments influence various aspects of recipients' lives.

The initial findings, released in July, found that recipients put the bulk of their extra spending toward basic needs such as rent, transportation, and food. They also worked less on average but remained engaged in the workforce and were more deliberate in their job searches compared with a control group.

But Rhodes says the research reinforced how difficult it is to solve complex issues such as poverty or economic insecurity, and that there is "a lot more work to do."

The Altman-backed study is still reporting results. New findings released in December showed recipients valued work more after receiving the recurring monthly payments — a result that may challenge one of the main arguments against basic income payments. Participants also reported significant reductions in stress, mental distress, and food insecurity during the first year, though those effects faded by the second and third years of the program.

"Poverty and economic insecurity are incredibly difficult problems to solve," Rhodes said. "The findings that we've had thus far are quite nuanced."

She added: "There's not a clear through line in terms of, this helps everyone, or this does that. It reinforced to me the idea that these are really difficult problems that, maybe, there isn't a singular solution."

UBI and Silcion Valley

Universal basic income has garnered significant support within Silicon Valley.

The programs have long been a passion project for high-profile tech leaders, including Twitter cofounder Jack Dorsey, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Tesla chief Elon Musk. Some argue advancements in AI, which could pose a threat to some worker's job security, have made the conversion more urgent.

Like many of his tech contemporaries, Altman has long supported UBI and even suggested an idea that involves sharing compute of a future iteration of an OpenAI GPT model, something he referred to as "universal basic compute."

Rhodes first applied for the lead researcher job in 2016 after seeing a blog post from Altman, then the president of Y Combinator, in which he announced his plan to support a study of universal basic income. At the time, she was just finishing up her Ph.D. and had never heard of Altman or Y Combinator.

"I started working on this with Sam in 2016 and at that time, so I was finishing up graduate school in social work and political science, and very outside the California Bay Area community," she said. "There was not much going on in this space, in the US. Basic income or cash transfers were still somewhat of a fringe idea."

The global interest in the study's results was somewhat surprising, Rhodes said, as the team never saw the experiment as a policy suggestion.

"It was never designed to be a policy referendum on UBI or any specific policy. It was an opportunity to really ask the sort of big, open-ended questions, you know, what happens when you give people unconditional cash to better understand the lived experiences of lower-income Americans and the challenges they were facing," she said.