• Trump's decision to invite China's Xi Jinping to his inauguration surprised many observers.
• China is the US' main geopolitical rival, jostling for dominance across a range of trade and diplomatic issues.
• Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, balancing confrontational China policies with praise.

When President-elect Donald Trump invited China's President Xi Jinping, the leader of the US' biggest geopolitical rival, to his January inauguration on Thursday, it came as somewhat of a surprise.

The sight of Xi, China's authoritarian strongman, seated alongside top US political and military officials in DC would be incongruous, to say the least.

But Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, and has often balanced his confrontational China policies with years of lavishing praise for Xi.

Some see Trump's invitation as the latest power play designed to imbalance Xi and reset US-China relations.

"I think it's a gimmick. It would be impossible for Xi to attend without giving the sort of sign that he's almost like a vassal," Kerry Brown, an associate of the Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, told Business Insider.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the invitation also reflects Trump's faith in the personal, transactional relationships he's formed with strongman leaders.

"Trump's invitation reflects his desire to rebuild a rapport with President Xi, which he believes will be the decisive dynamic in shaping US-China relations during his second administration," Wyne told BI.

Reports on Thursday said that Xi would not attend the inauguration, and would instead send a top government official as envoy as an apparent gesture of goodwill.

If he did attend, it could be seen as an act of tribute to the democratic system China has sought to challenge, and the power of a state whose dominance it seeks to corrode.

"Going to Trump's inauguration makes Xi Jinping look like a supplicant to Trump, because this is a ceremony honoring Trump," Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told ABC News.

Thomas added: "Xi would be attending to honor Trump's victory, I don't think that sits well with Xi's self-image and his political reputation in China as a nationalist strongman."

A tough road ahead

Even so, Trump's invitation is likely an audacious opening gambit as he eyes new discussions with Xi, and China is fortifying itself diplomatically and economically in anticipation, analysts told Reuters.

Trump has long championed policies that aggressively confront China, and is threatening to ratchet up tariffs further when he takes office again next year.

Future negotiations will likely be tough, with the US and China at loggerheads over a range of trade and diplomatic issues.

China has backed Russia in its war with Ukraine, is forming closer ties with an axis of authoritarian powers, and is menacing Taiwan.

"Trump is performing politics," said Brown. "This is going to be a hard, difficult, technical negotiation with the Chinese if they're going to get the things they want: better market access, better balance."

China is also in a different position to when Trump first took office in 2017. Back then, the US and Chinese economies were highly interlinked.

Although close ties remain, partly in response to Trump's first-term tariffs China has moved to diversify its exports away from the US and has spent billions on research and development.

It has become the world leader in solar-panel and electric-vehicle technologies, as well as quantum computing and AI.

The US-China rivalry is also intensifying over sophisticated chip and satellite technologies, as well as rare Earth metals.

This month, China launched an antimonopoly probe into US chip giant Nvidia, and it is imposing restrictions on the export of drone parts vital for Ukraine in combatting Russia's invasion.

"It's all part of what's going to be a great, big performance next year about Trump trying to say that he's going to deliver this fantastic new deal with China. And the Chinese are well prepared for this," said Brown.

Analysts told Bloomberg that the Nvidia probe and other trade moves are bargaining chips China can use in future discussions.

All of this makes it highly unlikely that Xi will want to come to the US to clap as Trump is sworn in as president.

• NATO may raise defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, according to the FT.
• Trump has threatened to leave NATO if it does not spend more on defense.
• Mark Rutte, NATO's head, said that Europe understands it must do more on shared security.

NATO members may increase their defense spending to 3% of GDP, in part due to pressure by President-elect Donald Trump.

Three people involved in the preliminary talks told the Financial Times that NATO intends to make a short-term pledge to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, moving to 3% by 2030.

NATO countries are committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defense but several, including Italy and Spain, have fallen short.

This year, Poland has led the alliance on defense, spending 4.12% of GDP followed by Estonia at 3.43%, and the US at 3.38%, according to Reuters.

The talks are in the preliminary stages, according to people speaking to the FT, and will be formally agreed upon at the NATO summit in June.

The discussions to increase spending come in the wake of Trump's impending return to the White House.

Trump has long been skeptical of the alliance, and threatened to withdraw from NATO during his first term if members did not start spending more on defense.

Last month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Europe understands it must do more to ensure shared security. "That starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities," he said.

When asked about NATO's defense spending, Rutte told the FT earlier this month that he had a number in mind but did not clarify what it would be. "But clearly, when you look at the capability targets, [when] you look at the gaps still there … It is clear that, with 2%, you cannot get there," he said.

Rutte was appointed NATO head earlier this year and has gained a reputation as a "Trump whisperer" after successfully pacifying the President-elect's threat to leave the alliance in 2018.

NATO defense spending has accelerated in recent years, but experts told BI earlier this year that that has little to do with Trump.

"Pretty much all of the increases, I would say, since 2014 are a response to Russia," said Edward Hunter Christie, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former NATO official.

William Alberque, a former NATO arms control expert and now director of strategy, technology, and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told BI's Mia Jankowicz early this year that some officials may be quietly pleased with the external pressure from Trump, allowing them to scapegoat him for their already-planned spending decisions.

Representatives for NATO did not immediately reply to a request by BI for comment.

• Container ships are avoiding the threat of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, The New York Times reported.
• Sailing around Africa extends journeys by up to 10 days and adds significant to fuel costs.
• Sending US and EU warships to the region has done little to improve the situation for shipping companies.

Some cargo ships are extending their journeys by up to 10 days and thousands of miles to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.

More than a year ago, Houthi rebels based in Yemen began targeting ships and vessels in the Red Sea, which they said was in response to Israel's escalations in Gaza.

However, the rebels have also attacked ships with no obvious connection to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Maritime historian Salvatore Mercogliano told the Times the situation was one of the most significant challenges shipping had faced for some time.

A report by the Defense Intelligence Agency said that at least 65 countries' trade interests had been affected by Houthi attacks on commercial shipping as of April.

There have been about 130 such incidents involving commercial ships since October 2023, per figures collated by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.

Diverting ships around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds thousands of nautical miles, up to two weeks of transit time, and about $1 million in fuel costs for each voyage, per the report.

It also said container shipping through Red Sea, which typically accounts for about 10% to 15% of international maritime trade, had declined by about 90% between December 2023 and February.

The US and EU have sent warships to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to prevent Houthi attacks, but the move has had little impact.

According to Portwatch, a database run by the IMF and Oxford University, the average number of container ships passing through the Red Sea a week as of December 1 was 26, down from 73 the same time last year.

As well as longer journey times and higher costs, the management consultancy Inverto estimated that an additional 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide had been emitted since the crisis began.

• Zelenskyy rejected US pressure to lower the draft age from 25 to 18.
• The US had suggested the reduction to address manpower shortages in the conflict.
• Zelenskyy emphasized the need for military aid instead.

Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has rejected US calls to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to help increase the number of soldiers fighting against Russia.

"We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers," Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Monday.

"The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia's military potential, not Ukraine's draft age," continued the post.

"The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages."

The post was in response to US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller's comment on Monday that the US was ready to train and arm new soldiers if Ukraine changed its conscription policy. The current minimum conscription age is 25.

"What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle," said Miller in a press briefing.

Zelenskyy previously resisted the idea in November when an anonymous US administration official told reporters that reducing the draft age would help Ukraine keep up with Russia's military.

"The simple truth is that Ukraine is not currently mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace their battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia's growing military," the senior official had said, according to The Financial Times.

In a speech to the parliament, Zelenskyy said: "Let there be no speculation — our state is not preparing to lower the mobilization age."

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed frustration with delays in military aid from Ukraine's Western allies, on whom it is dependent for advanced weapons such as Patriot and Storm Shadow missiles.

However, manpower shortages on the battlefield remain a key problem for the Ukrainians.

War analyst Michael Kofman told BI earlier this year that Ukraine's "manning situation is the kind of thing that's probably going to get worse before it gets better."

Earlier this year, a Ukrainian service member told The Washington Post that the companies in his battalion were staffed at 35% of normal levels.

• Russia launched more than 6,000 drones and missiles this fall, per The Wall Street Journal.
• Ukraine has used a combination of air defense systems and electronic warfare to counter the attacks.
• To overcome these tactics, Russia is increasing its use of decoy drones against Ukraine.

Russia fired four times as many drones and missiles at Ukraine in the past three months compared to the same time a year ago, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

Using data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the report said that Russia launched more than 6,000 drones and missiles in the war during September, October, and November.

Ukraine has used a combination of air defense missile systems and electronic warfare technology to counter Russia's attacks.

However, Russia has used a variety of tactics to overcome Ukrainian air defenses, including hitting Ukraine with a variety of drones and missiles at the same time.

It has also been using unarmed, fake drones in swarm attacks, Kyiv's military intelligence agency, also known as the HUR, wrote in a statement shared to the Telegram messaging app in November.

These drones are smaller and cheaper than the Iranian-made Shahed-136 one-way attack drone that is often used by Russia against Ukraine.

Named "Parody" by the Ukrainians, the decoy drones apparently mimic the radar signature of a Shahed to mislead Kyiv's air defenses.

Analysts believe the record drone strikes may be designed to damage Ukraine's air defenses ahead of a major attack on the country's energy infrastructure.

"The Ukrainians are going to have a difficult winter," George Barros, team lead for Russia and geospatial intelligence at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) told Sky News.

"They're very resilient and they've found ways to mitigate the effect of Russian attacks, but at the same time the Russians have also learnt — they've managed to find more effective and creative ways of penetrating Ukraine's air defense."

On Sunday, the Ukrainian air force said it shot down 28 out of 74 drones launched by Russia in a night attack targeting Ukraine. A further 46 drones were "lost," the air force said.

Russia has also been stepping up its use of missiles. Late last month, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced more details of the'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile, days after it was first used to strike a munitions factory in Ukraine's Dnipro region.

He said the destructive elements of the missile reach over 7,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and that it had been used as a response to Ukraine's Western allies allowing their long-range missiles to be used against Russia.

• Romania's constitutional court on Friday ordered a new presidential election.
• Allegations of Russian social media interference in favor of Calin Georgescu prompted the decision.
• An expert told BI the move was "unprecedented" in Romanian democratic history.

Romania's constitutional court ordered a new presidential election on Friday, just two days before the second round of voting was due to be held.

The decision follows claims that Russia coordinated a social media campaign to boost far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, the surprise winner of the first round last Sunday. Moscow has denied the accusations.

Intelligence documents declassified this week by the outgoing president said online interference took place from abroad "with the aim of influencing the correctness of the electoral process."

They also said a "candidate for the presidential elections benefited from a massive exposure due to the preferential treatment that the TikTok platform granted him by not marking him as a political candidate," in a reference to Georgescu.

On Thursday the European Union ordered TikTok to suspend content related to the Romanian elections.

Georgescu, who largely ran his campaign on the social media platform, is sceptical of Nato and called Russian President Vladimir Putin a "patriot and a leader" in an interview with BBC News on Thursday, before adding: "But I am not a fan."

He also told BBC News he would end all support for Ukraine if elected. Romania shares a border with Ukraine and is a member of both Nato and the EU.

The government is yet to announce a date for a new election.

The constitutional court's decision is "unprecedented in the democratic history of Romania," political researcher Costin Ciobanu told Business Insider.

"It is difficult to assess what the impact of the constitutional court decision is, but given the long history of Russian interference in different elections, it doesn't sound impossible that Russia was trying to use its tools to promote a candidate whose narratives were closer to what Russia is promoting."

Ciobanu said the constitutional court may annul the parliamentary elections also held on Sunday and could bar Georgescu from standing in the fresh poll.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said the court's decision to annul was the "correct solution" following the release of the intelligence reports, which show that the first-round results were "blatantly distorted as a result of Russia's intervention."

• NASA has delayed the Artemis-2 mission to 2026 due to Orion capsule heat shield issues.
• The delay also affects Artemis-3 moon landing, now planned for 2027.
• NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the mission is still ahead of China's moon landing plans in 2030.

NASA on Thursday delayed sending astronauts back to the moon in a setback for its Artemis program, which is already several years late and billions over budget.

The Artemis 2 mission, which plans to fly astronauts to the moon and back, has been pushed back from September 2025 to April 2026.

A subsequent Artemis 3 crewed moon landing that was meant to take place in late 2026 is now scheduled for mid-2027.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the delays would still let the US send astronauts to the moon "well ahead of the Chinese government's announced intention" of 2030.

"It is vital for us to land on the south pole so that we do not cede portions of that lunar south pole to the Chinese," Nelson said.

Officials said spacecraft improvements are still needed, and an investigation into heat shield damage from an early test flight took longer than expected.

With its Artemis missions, the US space agency aims to lay the foundations for the first human settlements beyond Earth and pave the way for extraplanetary colonization.

The last time there was a human on the moon was in 1972, as part of NASA's Apollo-17 mission.

However, the Artemis program has been best by technical problems and delays.

In an audit released earlier this year by NASA's Office of the Inspector General, it was estimated that the cost for the mission's mobile launcher 2 had ballooned from $383 million to $2.7 billion.

With Trump's nomination of billionaire Jared Isaacman as NASA's next administrator, concerns are growing about the future of Artemis and NASA's lunar strategy.

As BI previously reported, the lunar market — worth over $100 billion— could be game-changing for humanity.

"Definitely, the moon is going to be a big business," Prachi Kawade, a senior analyst at NSR, a research-and-consulting company focused on the space market said last year.

On the way to the moon, companies are likely to discover technologies that can have lucrative applications here on Earth, she added.

Not everyone is convinced of its value, however. In an October opinion piece, billionaire Michael Bloomberg described it as a "colossal waste of taxpayer money" and that private companies, such as SpaceX, should take the lead instead.

• South Korea's president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law in a televised address on Tuesday.
• Lee Jae-myung of the liberal Democratic Party told CNN he thought it was a digital fake.
• Lee went viral after livestreaming himself climbing a fence to get to the National Assembly.

Lee Jae-myung, South Korea's main opposition leader, initially thought the president's martial law declaration was a deepfake.

"I was lying in bed with my wife in our home … when my wife suddenly showed me a YouTube video and said, 'The president is declaring martial law,'" Lee Jae-myung told CNN.

Lee said he was convinced it was a digitally manipulated video.

"I replied, 'That's a deepfake. It has to be a deepfake. There's no way that's real,'" he added.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked the world on Tuesday when he announced he was imposing martial law during a late-night address.

The decree, which enabled temporary military control and the suspension of civilian government activities and civil liberties, was the first since the country's democratization in 1987.

Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea's longtime enemy, but it's likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.

He backpedaled six hours later, after the streets were filled with protesters. The decree was voted against by MPs who had to cross barricades and climb walls to make it into the National Assembly.

Lee went viral on social media for livestreaming himself climbing over a fence to the National Assembly building so he could vote against the decree. He described Yoon's move as unconstitutional.

Calls for the president's resignation are growing. According to the Yonhap news agency, all six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday.

Yoon came to power in 2022, narrowly defeating Lee in the most closely contested presidential election in South Korean history.

Since then, his presidency has been riddled with controversy and low approval ratings.

Several senior government figures, including the defense minister, have resigned from their posts.

In the immediate aftermath, the South Korean won plunged as much as 3% relative to the US dollar.

• South Korea was in chaos on Tuesday after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law.
• Yoon reversed course hours after invoking the law and now faces being impeached.
• South Korea's foe, North Korea, could seek to exploit the turmoil.

Kim Jong Un, North Korea's emboldened leader, is likely watching the events in South Korea closely and may use the turmoil to his benefit.

"We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea's democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul," Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford to CNN.

"We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise," he added.

It comes after South Korea, long one of the US' most important Asian allies, was tipped into political chaos on Tuesday when its president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law.

Yoon reversed course six hours later after lawmakers blocked the declaration. Calls for the president's resignation are now growing.

All six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea's longtime enemy, but it's likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.

How North Korea may respond

North Korea may decide it's "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation," Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US National Intelligence Council, told VOA.

The unrest comes at a time of heightened tensions in East Asia.

South Korea has long been backed by the US, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the republic, in its decadeslong frozen war with North Korea.

But North Korea, fuelled by Russian money and goods after backing the Kremlin's Ukraine invasion, is becoming more assertive and more aggressive.

It's escalating its threats toward South Korea, while ally China menaces US ally Taiwan with invasion.

Meanwhile, the US is seeking to bolster its democratic allies in the region to deter aggression by the axis of authoritarian states. It was reportedly caught off guard by Yoon's declaration on Tuesday but sought to project unwavering support for South Korean security as the turmoil unfolded.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday said the US commitment to South Korean security remained "ironclad."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea] with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Kim could use the crisis to intimidate and undermine its neighbor, and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US, say analysts.

Seiler told VOA that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

It could also take the form of propaganda designed to erode trust in democracy and government stability in South Korea.

US support may act as a deterrent

Not everyone agrees that there will be much action from North Korea, however. For one thing, US support for South Korea may act as a significant deterrent.

"North Korea is very likely to seek to capitalize politically. But the South Korea-US alliance is robust, with the two main political parties and 90% of South Koreans supporting it," Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of Department of European and International Studies at SOAS, told Business Insider.

David Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, told Newsweek that Kim is likely "rubbing his hands with glee" but said he was not in a good position to respond.

"I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea's political system, but not much else," he said.

• Donald Trump has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine.
• However, analysts say it relies on Ukraine being in a position of strength.
• Trump allies have questioned US support for Ukraine.

Donald Trump may be more likely to get a peace deal from Russia if he places Ukraine in a position of strength, according to analysts.

The President-elect has said his priority is to end the war in Ukraine and stop what he believes is a drain on US military resources.

On Wednesday, he selected retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, where he'll likely lead the drive to broker peace talks.

It's a move that may concern the US' European allies, with Kellogg previously having suggested handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Military and political leaders in Europe are warning that a deal that hands too much to Russia will likely just be a prelude to further conflict.

Analysts told Business Insider that a meaningful peace deal can only be brokered by backing Ukraine and ensuring it can negotiate from a position of strength.

John Lough, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said abandoning Ukraine could make Trump appear weak and embolden the US's main global competitors.

"If he abandons Ukraine and says, 'I'm not going to fund this anymore, the US doesn't need this,' and as a consequence, the Russians make a strategic advance in Europe, and take a further step to dismantle the US-led security order in Europe, that would undoubtedly look weak," said Lough.

Instead, say experts, Ukraine must be placed in a position to deter Russia.

In recent months, Russia has exploited Ukraine's lack of manpower and artillery, making significant advances in east Ukraine.

At the same time, it's intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's cities and infrastructure, with one million civilians without power after strikes this week.

Kellogg's position is more complex than that of President Joe Biden, who backed arming Ukraine to push Russia back and left it up to Kyiv to decide when to negotiate.

Instead, Kellogg argues that Ukraine's aid should be cut if it refuses to negotiate with the Kremlin, but US aid to Ukraine should be boosted if Russia won't take part in talks.

Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute in Washington, DC, in an interview with CNN Wednesday warned that Putin has little incentive to seek peace with Ukraine if he believes support for Kyiv is weakening.

"If President Trump is credible in basically threatening to provide Ukraine with what it needs to retake territory and to hold on to the Russian territory, then that puts pressure on Putin because this war is not popular in Russia," said Farkas.

"So every day he has to wait, and if he thinks that Ukraine now has time on its side, meaning President Trump will back Ukraine, he will then be more motivated to seek a deal."

Ultimately, achieving a lasting peace deal in Ukraine will depend on deterring Russia, not on walking away.

"Any deal is still going to involve US support in some form to keep the peace. Ukraine needs to maintain effective armed forces to deter further Russian aggression," said Lough.

• US wants Ukraine to lower the conscription age to 18 amid a manpower shortage.
• Ukraine's military is facing weapons shortages and low morale.
• The White House said aid to Ukraine will not be tied to the conscription age.

The US has urged Ukraine to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to help increase the number of soldiers fighting against Russia, according to multiple reports.

The current minimum conscription age is 25, but an anonymous US administration official told reporters on Wednesday that reducing it would help Ukraine keep up with Russia's military.

"The simple truth is that Ukraine is not currently mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace their battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia's growing military," the senior official said, according to The Financial Times.

Ukraine appears unwilling to lower the age, however. "Let there be no speculation — our state is not preparing to lower the mobilization age," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told parliament last week.

Zelenskyy's office on Thursday told the FT that the problem was in the supply of Western weapons.

"Ukraine cannot be expected to compensate for delays in logistics or hesitation in support with the youth of our men on the frontline," said Dmytro Lytvyn, the top communications advisor to the Ukrainian president said.

The US approved a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine in April after several delays, but Zelenskyy said last month that 90% of it had not yet reached Ukraine.

Low morale has also been an issue. A unit commander fighting in Pokrovsk told CNN in September that the "majority" of mobilized soldiers were leaving their posts.

"They go to the positions once and if they survive, they never return. They either leave their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army," he said.

Manpower shortages remain a key problem for the Ukrainians, though. "In general, Ukrainian force is still performing rather well on the defense," war analyst Michael Kofman told BI earlier this year. "The challenge is that they are significantly outnumbered."

The White House clarified that US aid to Ukraine will not be dependent on whether the conscription age is lowered.

"We're absolutely going to keep sending Ukraine weapons and equipment. We know that's vital. But so, too, is manpower at this point," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a statement to AFP.

"In fact, we believe manpower is the most vital need they have. So, we're also ready to ramp up our training capacity if they take appropriate steps to fill out their ranks," said Kirby.

In the months he has left, Biden has been scrambling to push measures to aid the war effort in Ukraine.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said earlier this month that Biden "has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door" before Trump's inauguration in January.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request by BI for comment.

• Israel agreed on a cease-fire deal aimed at ending 14 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
• "Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump," said Florida Rep. Mike Waltz.
• `The White House fears Trump will take credit for bringing an end to the Gaza war, a report said.

Donald Trump's team has claimed credit for the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect in Lebanon on Wednesday morning.

The agreement, aimed at ending nearly 14 months of fighting, was described by President Joe Biden as "designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Under the terms of the deal, Israel's military will withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period while Hezbollah moves its forces north and the Lebanese army deploys to the south.

Mike Waltz, the President-elect's national security advisor, posted on X that "everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump."

Waltz continued by saying that Trump's victory sent a "clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won't be tolerated."

According to the Associated Press, a senior Biden administration official said that Trump's team was kept informed about negotiations as they unfolded.

The official added that the incoming Trump team was not directly involved in the talks.

Richard Goldberg, an advisor at the Washington group Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told the AP that Iran —which would have had to give its approval to Hezbollah for the deal — factored Trump's presidency into the agreement.

"There's zero doubt that Iran is pulling back to regroup ahead of Trump coming into office," said Goldberg. "It's a combination of Israeli military success and Trump's election — the ayatollah has no clothes and he knows we know."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu' said in a televised speech that Israel would attack Hezbollah if it broke the terms of the cease-fire or gave any inkling of preparing to attack again.

With only 54 days in office, Biden now hopes to redouble his efforts for a cease-fire in Gaza.

"They, too, deserve an end to the fighting and displacement," he said. "The people of Gaza have been through hell. Their world has been absolutely shattered. Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much."

However, with time running out, there is fear in the White House that it will be Trump who will take credit for bringing an end to the war, according to The Times.

The World Bank Group estimates that the total damages incurred due to the war in Lebanon are around $8.5 billion, of which $5.1 billion are economic losses.

"President Trump has been crystal clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is steadfast. Hezbollah understands this is their best opportunity to get a more favorable deal done," a representative for the Trump-Vance transition team told Business Insider.

"Iran-backed proxies clearly see the clock ticking as President Trump will soon return to the White House with a strong national security team, including Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Pete Hegseth, with US intelligence led by Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe. President Trump rightfully predicted that actors in the region would make moves toward peace because of his historic victory — and that's exactly what we are seeing take place."

Representatives for Biden did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• Western allies are reported to be adopting the "Danish model" to fund Ukraine's arms industry.
• Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Lithuania have provided money in this way, The Wall Street Journal said.
• Those in favor say it will help make Ukraine self-sufficient in the long term.

Ukraine's European allies, hampered by low military production capacity, have been struggling to produce the weapons needed for Kyiv to fight against Russia.

An increasing number are now financing Ukrainian government contracts with Ukrainian weapons manufacturers to make up the shortfall, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The move has been termed the "Danish Model" after Denmark began giving Ukraine aid to boost its defense manufacturing capacity earlier this year.

Those in favor of the model say Ukraine is able to create weapons better suited to its needs at a lower cost than Western countries, the Journal reported.

Ukraine already has a strong weapons manufacturing industry. An Institute for the Study of War report said Ukraine's defense industry employed 300,000 workers within about 500 different companies in 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last month that the country's defense companies could now produce 4 million drones annually.

By contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this year that Moscow intended to ramp up drone production tenfold to about 1.4 million a year.

"Ukraine was the heart of the Soviet defense industrial base, so they have a lot of know-how when it comes to manufacturing complex systems," Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment's Russia and Eurasia program, told the Journal.

Supporting Ukraine's defense industry lets the West help ensure Ukraine is self-sufficient, he added.

Last week, Denmark made a new donation of $138 million for the development of Ukraine's arms industry, Reuters reported.

Sweden, Lithuania, and Norway have also recently provided money in this way, and other nations could soon follow, the Journal reported.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly expressed frustration with delays in military aid from Ukraine's Western allies, on whom it's dependent for advanced weapons such as Patriot and Storm Shadow missiles.

"Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year," he told Reuters in May.

As Business Insider's Sinéad Baker reported earlier this week, the West has focused on the quality of military equipment over stockpiles, prioritizing high-tech and specialized gear over volume.

But the Ukraine war has shown that both are needed. That has prompted a surge in weaponry manufacturing that some experts fear will still fall short.

Russia has also sourced weapons, troops, and ammunition from allies, with North Korea having provided about 8 million artillery shells and about 10,000 soldiers.

The US has meanwhile accused China of providing dual-use goods for Russia's military industry to overcome sanctions. Reuters reported in September that Russia also had a drone factory in China for the war.

Russia's advantages in manpower and equipment have enabled it to make slow but important gains in east Ukraine in recent weeks.

• Yemeni men may have been tricked into fighting in Ukraine after promises of Russian citizenship.
• Russia is increasingly bringing in soldiers from other countries to help it fight in Ukraine.
• Analysts see this as part of growing Russia-Houthi cooperation.

Yemeni men were duped into fighting in the Ukraine war after traveling to Russia on the promise of high salaries and citizenship, according to a report in the Financial Times.

One recruit, who traveled to Russia with the help of a Houthi-linked company, told the FT that he was promised a $2,000-a-month job with a $10,000 bonus.

However, he said when he arrived in Russia, he was forced to sign an enlistment contract that he could not read before being sent to a military base near Rostov, near the Ukrainian border.

Another recruit told the publication that he was promised work in engineering and security, but ended up fighting for Russia in a forest in Ukraine.

The FT estimated that hundreds of Yemenis men are fighting for Russia.

Analysts believe this latest development with the Houthis is a sign of the growing cooperation between Russia and the Iran-backed military group.

"It makes a lot of sense for the Houthis because Russia has been known to provide them with intelligence on Israeli targets," Bashir Abbas, a fellow at the Stimson Center, told BI. "So there is very clearly an avenue of cooperation between the two."

The full extent of Russian cooperation with the Houthis is unclear. However, last week, a US State Department official told BI that Putin is engaging with the Iran-backed rebels at a "serious level."

Tim Lenderking, US Special Envoy to Yemen, told the FT that Russia is actively discussing weapons transfers with the Houthis, who have been targeting ships in the Red Sea for more than a year.

"The kinds of weapons that are being discussed are very alarming, and would enable the Houthis to better target ships in the Red Sea and possibly beyond," said Lenderking.

Abbas said that it's further proof that Iran is actively helping Russia in the war in Ukraine. "It's almost a symbiotic relationship, especially when Russia is fighting an active war in Europe, draining its coffers every single day," he said.

This isn't the first report of men being coerced to fight in Ukraine. In March, The Guardian reported that countless Indian and Nepalese men have been duped into joining Russia in its fight against Ukraine.

Indian and Nepalese men told the publication that they had been pressured into signing military contracts written in Russian and that they couldn't leave because their passports had been taken.

North Korea has also sent thousands of soldiers to Russia to fight against Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank said last week that the influx of fresh troops gives Putin a way to, at least temporarily, avoid a second involuntary mobilization.

Spokespeople for the Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request by BI for comment.

• Varun Badhwar lives in Delhi where toxic smog hit severe levels this week.
• Badhwar has lived in Delhi for 40 years and, despite pollution concerns, has not moved out.
• He told BI he values the melting pot community and family he has in the city.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Varun Badhwar, director for growth and monetization at Condé Nast India. It's been edited for length and clarity.

I've lived in Delhi my entire life — for four decades now — and I've seen it grow over the years into the melting pot that it is today.

Everyone is talking about the pollution in the city this week, but I've experienced it since I was a child.

I remember back in school we used to take these government buses with diesel engines. They would emit such huge clouds of black smoke that we would feel suffocated.

I bought my first air purifier in 2016, when people started talking more and more about the Air Quality Index (AQI). This week, when the AQI hit 1,500, I bought my third one.

At least three or four people in my circle have moved out of Delhi due to the pollution. The smog means people who develop breathing issues are advised not to stay here anymore.

I have considered leaving Delhi many times, but I still haven't.

Why Delhi's pollution problem is so bad

Our population in Delhi has skyrocketed in the last couple of decades with an influx of people coming in for jobs.

Our infrastructure didn't grow at the same pace, and maybe our government didn't anticipate it.

From a geolocation point of view, Delhi is also at a disadvantage because of the surrounding mountains. It's harder for the winds to sweep away the clouds of emissions, so they linger.

Our state is also close to agriculture-heavy states like Punjab and Haryana, where burning of crop residue is common and adds to the situation.

It's especially worse in the winters every year; there was a picture recently of a woman standing in front of the Taj Mahal and you can't even see it properly.

I do my part to stay safe. I try to stay indoors, keep physical activity to a bare minimum during the winter, and work out extra during the summer months until about August.

I drink a lot of hot water and ginger tea, stock up on air purifiers, and do my breathing exercises.

I usually escape to the hills, but it's no longer as sustainable

The situation has become so common that people who can afford to move out of the city to less polluted places during the winter. I tend to go to the hills every time the pollution spikes in Delhi, and usually, it gets better in a few days.

This time, it was more concerning. I went to the Kanatal hill station for three nights, and when I came back, my air purifier said the AQI was still 900.

But I don't want to leave Delhi. I was born and raised here, my extended family is here. About five years ago, I thought of moving to Canada, but I didn't pursue it because the opportunities were better for me here.

I think I'm better off in Delhi than somewhere I'd have to start all over again. It's hard to find a community like this outside.

Apart from the pollution problem, Delhi has a lot of positives. It's a melting pot, and especially after the tech boom in Gurugram, people come from all over the world.

The malls have the biggest brands in luxury and high fashion, the heritage and history are incredible, and the job opportunities are great. It's a great place to be.

• Six tourists have died from suspected methanol poisoning in Laos.
• The victims are an American, two Danes, a Brit, and two Australians.
• The US State Department said it was monitoring the situation and providing consular assistance.

Several tourists have died from drinking tainted alcohol in Vang Vieng, Laos.

An American, two Danes, two Australians, and a Brit died of suspected methanol poisoning, according to various reports.

A spokesperson for the US State Department confirmed to Business Insider on Thursday that a US citizen had died in Vang Vieng and that the agency was monitoring the situation and providing consular assistance.

A spokesperson for Britain's Foreign Office told CNN, "We are supporting the family of a British woman who has died in Laos, and we are in contact with the local authorities."

Denmark's Ministry of Foreign Affairs told CNN that two Danish nationals had died but provided no further details.

On Friday, the family of 19-year-old Australian tourist Holly Bowles said she had died a week after she fell ill in Vang Vieng.

"All Australians will be heartbroken by the tragic passing of Holly Bowles. I offer my deepest sympathies to her family and friends," said Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Thursday that another 19-year-old Australian tourist named Bianca Jones had died.

"This is every parent's very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure," Albanese said.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told BI that it was "continuing to provide consular assistance to the families of two Australians in Thailand, one of whom has tragically passed away."

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation wrote that local authorities in Laos were investigating the case and trying to ascertain where the tainted alcohol came from.

The ingestion of methanol, a type of alcohol that is used in cleaning products, adhesives, and paints, can lead to nausea, vomiting, and heart and respiratory failure, per the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Vang Vieng, a small town in the center of Laos, is a popular destination for backpackers. It is surrounded by mountains, caves, and rivers.

Representatives of the British Foreign Office, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the embassy of Laos in Singapore didn't respond to requests for comment from Business Insider, sent outside business hours.

November 22, 2.30 a.m. — This story was updated to include comments from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

• South Korea closed a case on workplace bullying involving a member of K-pop group NewJeans.
• It said that member Hanni was not legally classified as a worker under her contract.
• Hanni is believed to have been paid $3.7 million in 2023.

South Korea's government on Wednesday dismissed a workplace harassment case involving K-pop star Hanni, saying the singer was not legally classified as a worker.

Hanni, a member of NewJeans, recently testified in South Korea's National Assembly as part of a larger hearing on workplace harassment in the industry.

It came after she posted a YouTube livestream accusing a senior member of her record label, Hybe, of ignoring her and her bandmates.

Hybe denied the claim, but Hanni's fans filed a complaint with the Ministry of Employment and Labor.

The government agency this week closed the investigation.

In a statement to Billboard, it said: "Given the content and nature of the management contract HANNI signed, it is difficult to regard her as a worker under the Labor Standards Act, which involves working in a subordinate relationship for wages."

It added that "each party fulfills their contractual obligations as equal contracting parties, making it difficult to consider there was supervision or direction from the company."

The push and pull between what counts as work in South Korea's entertainment industry has stretched on for years.

In a multi-authored discussion in the Korea Herald as early as 2011, contributor Cho Dae Won pointed out the loopholes in a proposed bill banning the sexualization and overwork of teen idols.

"If entertainers' working week is based on a 40-hour week as with general workers, we have two questions; should we count the time spent during appearances on TV, or commuting time to appear in the studio too?" said Dae Won.

In the two years since their debut, NewJeans members have been global representatives for brands like Nike, Calvin Klein, and Levi's. In April this year, Forbes Korea estimated the group brought in $27 million from advertising revenue.

Members of the group were paid $3.7 million each in 2023, according to documents cited by NME in April.

The Ministry's ruling on South Korea's musician rights is similar to the situation in the US.

According to an LA Times report, pop singers and songwriters are viewed as independent contractors under labor law unless they are in part of a union recognized by the National Labor Relations Board.

Unlike artists and actors in Hollywood's film and TV industry, the Western music industry is largely without unions.

Representatives for HYBE and the South Korean Labor Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

• New Delhi reported severe levels of air pollution this week.
• Smog has led to school closures, a ban on construction, and flight disruptions.
• Titus Koshy, CEO of United Consultancy Services Group, told BI his employees struggle to commute.

Air pollution in India's capital, New Delhi, has become so severe that some people are struggling to commute to work.

Titus Koshy, CEO of United Consultancy Services Group which has more than 150 employees, told Business Insider that the toxic smog engulfing the city had made it difficult for his staff to come into the office.

"There's so much confusion. People can't reach the office, public transport is not accessible, it's very disruptive and we've had to work from home," he said.

Koshy added that some of his employees had complained about sore throats and viral infections over the past few weeks.

On Monday, the Air Quality Index in New Delhi was over 1,500, the BBC said, or 15 times the level the World Health Organization (WHO) deems satisfactory for breathing.

According to IQ Air, it improved to 186 on Thursday, a level still classed as "unhealthy." The United States Environmental Protection Agency considers anything over 300 as "hazardous" to health.

On Tuesday, Delhi's Chief Minister announced on X that schools would be shut and classes would be shifting online. Construction has also been banned in the city and some flights have been disrupted.

"These construction laborers are not going to be paid by anybody," said Koshy. "They didn't even let someone come in and install a geyser in my house. These workers will be impacted more than anyone else, what do they do?"

Delhi and the surrounding areas are home to offices of several multinational companies, including JP Morgan, KPMG, Cisco, and Mondelēz International.

Shubham Gupta, a consultant at KPMG, told BI that he tries to work from home as much as possible, but his company mandates in-office work at least two to three days a week. He wears an N-95 mask on those days, and relies on the office air purifier.

"Sometimes it hits my mind that I should leave Delhi, but after all, our livelihood is there, so how can we leave?" he said.

KPMG India said its teams can exercise the flexibility for remote working in consultation with their managers and based on their client commitments.

"All have been advised to travel to/from NCR/Delhi only if it's business critical," a spokesperson said in a statement. "Employee well-being continues to be our topmost priority and we will adapt ourselves as the situation evolves."

Smog in the city is worse during the post-monsoon winter months, especially when it is combined with the annual Diwali festival, dust storms, and mass burning of crop residue from neighboring states.

A 2019 study by the World Bank estimated the global cost of health damages associated with exposure to air pollution to be $8.1 trillion.