• US home sales remained low due to high mortgage rates and home prices in 2024.
• Southeast cities like Charlotte and Knoxville saw high demand despite affordability issues.
• Analysts predict a potential rise in home sales in 2025, driven by lower mortgage rates.

Another tough year in the US housing market was anything but boring for those in popular cities.

Home sales were soft for a third straight year, the National Association of Realtors recently noted. Mortgage rates and home prices are down from peak levels, but affordability remains a major issue and has sidelined millions of would-be buyers, who are instead renting.

But sellers in hot markets still won big as buyers battled for scarce spots in coveted cities.

10 places movers flocked to in 2024

To determine this year's most popular US real-estate markets, Business Insider compiled and analyzed data from six sources about moving patterns, rents, rental market competitiveness, search interest from homebuyers, and home price growth history and projections.

Although there were some mixed signals, there were also some clear conclusions about which regions, states, and cities drew the most interest from buyers and renters.

A brief look at migration data from Atlas Van Lines may yield more questions than answers. The moving firm found that the places with the most inbound movers relative to those leaving were Arkansas; Rhode Island; North Carolina; Washington, DC; and Idaho. Also on the list of states with inbound rates of at least 55% are Maine, Connecticut, Washington, Alaska, Alabama, and New Mexico, which essentially covers all four corners of the US.

But while that moving data gives a solid big-picture overview, it doesn't provide insight into which individual markets were most popular. That was instead determined by other measures of demand, like how much prices for homes and apartments rose, or how tough they were to land.

This process was more of an art than a science, but the 10 cities that best fit those criteria within states with substantial positive inflows of movers were all east of the Mississippi River. Even more notable is that the Southeast region was home to eight of those 10 popular markets, which were spread across just three states: North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

North Carolina was tied for second in the nation in mover inbound rate at 63%, due in part to four especially hot markets. Winston-Salem and nearby Greensboro saw their rents rise 6.7% and 5.3% this year, respectively, giving their rental market competitiveness scores a big boost. Meanwhile, two other major cities in the Tar Heel State — Charlotte and Durham — saw rents decline but were among the 20 most searched markets by homebuyers.

Those four North Carolina cities are set for high-single-digit or low-double-digit home price growth next year, per Realtor.com, and the NAR highlighted Charlotte as a top spot in 2025.

Neighboring Tennessee also had one of the nation's highest inbound rates at 62%. Knoxville was one of the more competitive smaller markets despite rent growth of just 1.5%, and it ranked 10th in the nation in homebuyers' searches. It's also on the NAR's list of standout markets next year. Meanwhile, Memphis saw 22.7% rent growth and is in line for 10.5% home price growth.

Kentucky's inbound rate of 56% was more modest. However, it had Lexington with 9.9% rent growth, a lofty rental market competitiveness score, and the eighth spot in buyers' searches, as well as Louisville, which Rent Cafe said was the top trending rental market of 2024.

Jonathan Miller, the cofounder of the real-estate firm Miller Samuel, told Business Insider that the Southeast market is popular because it's relatively warm and has ample housing inventory.

"It's a combination of the weather and housing affordability," Miller said in a recent interview.

The nation's capital represented the bordering Mid-Atlantic with a 63% mover inbound rate and a fifth-place ranking in homebuyers' searches, pushing prices up 10.2%. Washington, DC, was also one of the 30 most competitive rental markets, though supply kept price growth in check.

Rounding out the list was New Haven, Connecticut, which was arguably the hottest market. It was the fourth most competitive rental market this year, and its rent growth was easily the highest in the US in December at 35.7%. It also had 18.3% home price growth in November and is set for another 9.7% next year due to its Yale University ties and proximity to New York City.

What to expect in 2025

The US housing market has slowly thawed after it froze over as mortgage rates spiked. Some real-estate analysts expect sales to heat up in 2025, though others are more skeptical.

Optimists are calling for the biggest jump since the pandemic boom. The National Association of Realtors sees home sales rising 7% to 12% in 2025, including an 11% jump for new units, while eXp Realty's CEO is calling for 10% growth caused by sliding mortgage rates and rising supply.

But Realtor.com's sales forecast is more tempered at 1.5%, as is Miller's call for a 3% increase. The veteran real-estate analyst said mortgage rates will likely stay above 6%, weighing on demand, plus supply is also limited. Even still, he's expecting a 4% to 5% jump in home prices.

"If mortgage rates unexpectedly fall below 6%, we can have a housing boom," Miller said. "It just doesn't appear that that's in the cards, but there's a lot of upside potential in transaction volume, despite higher mortgage rates."

Miller said that against that backdrop, buyers will continue to seek out affordable markets, which are often correlated with abundant inventory. That's why the Sun Belt region was so hot in 2024.

This year's most popular markets will likely be among the winners next year, in Miller's view. He didn't predict the next boom town but said surges into Texas and Florida have run their course. Those states were red-hot in the early 2020s, though each had level moving flows this year.

"It's not that those markets are less attractive," Miller said. "There's less intensity from inbound migration as millions of new residents get situated. The rate of growth is no longer surging."

However, it appears as if the exodus from large states with highly populated cities isn't over, as three of the five states with the most outbound movers were California, Illinois, and New York. Each of those states has relatively high taxes, and Miller has a hunch that some movers might try to preemptively move before the potential expiration of state and local tax deductions slated for the end of 2025.

When Zillow debuted in 2006, the fledgling site bore little resemblance to the real-estate behemoth it is now. There were no options to find an agent, get a mortgage, or request a tour — the search portal couldn't even tell you which homes were actually for sale. There was, however, the Zestimate: a "free, unbiased valuation" for 40 million houses around the US, based on a proprietary algorithm. Half the single-family homes in America suddenly had a dollar figure attached to them, and anyone could take a peek. Zillow's site crashed within hours as a million people raced to ogle at the results.

The initial rush was a sign of things to come. Nowadays, the Zestimate is arguably the most popular — and polarizing — number in real estate. An entire generation of homeowners doesn't know life without the algorithm; some obsessively track its output as they would a stock portfolio or the price of bitcoin. By the time a seller hires a real-estate agent, there's a good chance they've already consulted the digital oracle. For anyone with even a passing interest in the housing market, the Zestimate is a breezy way to take the temperature. Keep tabs on mortgage rates all you want, but they can't tell you that your house has appreciated 20% over the past year, or that your annoying coworker's property is worth more than yours.

Many industry insiders, however, regard the number as a starting point at best and dangerously misguided at worst. Real-estate agents recount arguments with sellers who reject their pricing advice, choosing instead to take the Zestimate as the word of God. One meme likens its disciples to adults who still believe in Santa. Zillow itself lost hundreds of millions of dollars during the pandemic when it relied on its algorithm to buy homes at what turned out to be inflated prices, part of an ill-fated attempt to flip homes at scale.

The Zestimate is just one of a slew of automated valuation models that are increasingly used by banks, investors, and laypeople to estimate the value of homes. No other model, however, has wormed its way into our culture like the Zestimate. The model, like other consumer-facing AVMs, is prone to errors that render it more of an amusement than a serious pricing tool. But while the algo's price-guessing skills may be suspect, it's undeniably elite at one thing: luring people to Zillow-dot-com.

The Zestimate is both everywhere and an enigma. About 104 million homes, or 71% of the US housing stock, have a little dollar figure hovering above them on Zillow's website. One of them is the house in Austin where I was raised until the age of 10. It's not for sale, but right underneath the address, in bold, is the Zestimate. Next to it is a "Rent Zestimate," or the amount the owner could probably charge a tenant each month. You can click to see a graph of its Zestimate over the past decade — the Zillow-fied value of my childhood home rose a staggering 72% from May 2020 to its peak in May 2022 but has since dropped 24% from that top tick thanks to the chill running through the Austin market. In just the past 30 days, the Zestimate has dropped by $4,455. Ouch.

Just how accurate are those numbers, though? Until the house actually trades hands, it's impossible to say. Zillow's own explanation of the methodology, and its outcomes, can be misleading. The model, the company says, is based on thousands of data points from public sources like county records, tax documents, and multiple listing services — local databases used by real-estate agents where most homes are advertised for sale. Zillow's formula also incorporates user-submitted info: If you get a fancy new kitchen, for example, your Zestimate might see a nice bump if you let the company know. Zillow makes sure to note that the Zestimate can't replace an actual appraisal, but articles on its website also hail the tool as a "powerful starting point in determining a home's value" and "generally quite accurate." The median error rate for on-market homes is just 2.4%, per the company's website, while the median error rate for off-market homes is 7.49%. Not bad, you might think.

But that's where things get sticky. By definition, half of homes sell within the median error rate, e.g., within 2.4% of the Zestimate in either direction for on-market homes. But the other half don't, and Zillow doesn't offer many details on how bad those misses are. And while the Zestimate is appealing because it attempts to measure what a house is worth even when it's not for sale, it becomes much more accurate when a house actually hits the market. That's because it's leaning on actual humans, not computers, to do a lot of the grunt work. When somebody lists their house for sale, the Zestimate will adjust to include all the new seller-provided info: new photos, details on recent renovations, and, most importantly, the list price. The Zestimate keeps adjusting until the house actually sells. At that point, the difference between the sale price and the latest Zestimate is used to calculate the on-market error rate, which, again, is pretty good: In Austin, for instance, a little more than 94% of on-market homes end up selling for within 10% of the last Zestimate before the deal goes through. But Zillow also keeps a second Zestimate humming in the background, one that never sees the light of day. This version doesn't factor in the list price — it's carrying on as if the house never went up for sale at all. Instead, it's used to calculate the "off-market" error rate. When the house sells, the difference between the final price and this shadow algorithm reveals an error rate that's much less satisfactory: In Austin, only about 66% of these "off-market Zestimates" come within 10% of the actual sale price. In Atlanta, it's 65%; Chicago, 58%; Nashville, 63%; Seattle, 69%. At today's median home price of $420,000, a 10% error would mean a difference of more than $40,000.

Without sellers spoonfeeding Zillow the most crucial piece of information — the list price — the Zestimate is hamstrung. It's a lot easier to estimate what a home will sell for once the sellers broadcast, "Hey, this is the price we're trying to sell for." Because the vast majority of sellers work with an agent, the list price is also usually based on that agent's knowledge of the local market, the finer details of the house, and comparable sales in the area. This September, per Zillow's own data, the typical home sold for 99.8% of the list price — almost exactly spot on. That may not always be the case, but the list price is generally a good indicator of the sale figure down the line. For a computer model of home prices, it's basically the prized data point. In the world of AVMs, models that achieve success by fitting their results to list prices are deemed "springy" or "bouncy" — like a ball tethered to a string, they won't stray too far. Several people I talked to for this story say they've seen this in action with Zillow's model: A seller lists a home and asks for a number significantly different from the Zestimate, and then watches as the Zestimate moves within a respectable distance of that list price anyway. Zillow itself makes no secret of the fact that it leans on the list price to arrive at its own estimate.

Other sites have their versions of the Zestimate, too — there are actually about 25 different AVMs in the market, says Lee Kennedy, the founder and managing director of AVMetrics, a company known for independently testing these models. Realtor.com will show you three estimates, each from a different AVM provider. Redfin, a Zillow competitor, also has its own model. Kennedy has been studying AVMs for more than three decades, but it wasn't until the advent of Zillow that the masses became aware of them. Consumer-facing AVMs, like the Zestimate or the Redfin Estimate (Restimate?) are meant to be used informally, he says, as casual starting points before consulting real experts. They're not supposed to be used for real pricing, which should be left to the big guys — the "business-to-business" AVMs used by banks, investors, and the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lauryn Dempsey, a real-estate agent in the Denver area, gives similar advice to her clients.

"They're tools that provide information," Dempsey says, "but they should not be used in a vacuum to make decisions."

The business-to-business models are so costly to develop, Kennedy tells me, that they'll probably never be offered to regular people for free. But his testing indicates they're much more reliable. His firm has unveiled blind testing that looks at how models perform before taking into account the list price, a method that penalizes those aforementioned bouncy algorithms. The standard measurement breaks down how often the model can get within 10%, in either direction, of the actual selling price. In a highly urbanized area with lots of housing transactions, some of the models can correctly get close to the final selling price about 80% to 90% of the time — "not bad," Kennedy says. AVMs of all kinds work best in areas with a lot of homes that look and feel roughly the same. Cookie-cutter suburbs are heaven; areas with a wide range of home styles and ages, like Boston, pose a greater challenge. The value of a ranch home in the middle of nowhere is even tougher to peg.

So the Zestimate isn't exactly unique, and it's far from the best. But to the average internet surfer, no AVM carries the weight, or swagger, of the original. To someone like Jonathan Miller, the president and CEO of the appraisal and consulting company Miller Samuel, the enduring appeal of the Zestimate is maddening. "When you think of the Zestimate, for many, it gives a false anchor for what the value actually is," Miller says.

Miller is no unbiased observer. Given that he's an appraiser who estimates the value of homes for a living, it should come as no surprise that he's siding with the humans over the robots. But he raises real issues, highlighting the disconnect between the public's continued use of the Zestimate and its actual track record.

I could say that I virtually stalked my childhood home for "research," but let's be real: By the time I scrolled to the bottom of the page, I had fully surrendered to the voyeuristic urges that draw millions of visitors to the Zillow website each month. It's been almost two decades since I've stepped inside the house, and I can only imagine the changes its new owners have made to my old room (sadly, no pics of the interior). But with the aid of Zillow, my trip down memory lane was lined with data: I walked away with intimate knowledge of the home and its occupants. Prior to 2006, no regular person had this kind of power.

The launch of Zillow spawned a whole genre of internet snooping that, if anything, has only intensified in the years since. When I call up John Wake, a former economist and real-estate agent who now writes the newsletter Real Estate Decoded, he reveals that he, too, looked up his childhood home only a few months ago. "That part is really fun," he tells me. Keeping tabs on your own Zestimate, though, can provide less of a thrill. In December 2022, after interest-rate hikes tamped down home prices, Wake shared with his followers on X that his Zestimate was down 18% from May: "YIKES!" In a 2020 column, the Wall Street Journal editor Kris Frieswick opened up about the difficulty of quitting the algorithm: "My self-worth is defined by my Zestimate. Each day I approach Zillow.com filled with hope, and fear." The column reads mostly as tongue-in-cheek, but plenty of people take their number very seriously. As Frieswick pointed out, at least several disgruntled homeowners have actually sued Zillow over Zestimates they said were inaccurate.

Looking up other people's houses, by comparison, is a mostly harmless pastime. Bosses, neighbors, lovers, and exes — all are fair game in the all-seeing eyes of the tool. During the heat of the 2021 homebuying frenzy, a "Saturday Night Live" sendup of a Zillow ad declared: "The pleasure you once got from sex now comes from looking at other people's houses." The skit, which featured a lot of moaning and sultry mood lighting, was mostly about the fantasies of browsing homes for sale on Zillow — as one YouTube commenter observed, "They didn't even get into the naughty pleasure of looking up all your friends' Zestimate values." This kicked off a thread of others chiming in with "guilty!" and lots of cry-laughing emojis. "OMG I thought this was just my kink," another person replied. I imagine all of these people at a raucous dinner party, bonding over their exploits on zillow.com. And here I am, the buzzkill in the corner talking about median error rates.

Virtual spelunking aside, the hazards of the Zestimate are most obvious when a seller actually decides to list their home. Francine Carstensen, a real-estate agent in Alabama, says those in her line of work have a complicated relationship with the Zestimate: "We love it, and we hate it." A lofty estimate might jolt a homeowner into action — "I could sell my house for what?!" — and drive more business her way. But the number can also make it hard to do her job. A few times, she tells me, she's lost clients over a pricing disagreement involving the Zestimate. It can be difficult enough to pry a seller away from their unrealistic expectations without a number on a screen confirming their hopes for a bigger payday.

"I hate it when they tell me, 'Well, this is what Zillow tells me my house is worth,'" Carstensen says. "Because it's very rarely accurate."

Accuracy may not even be the point. It didn't appear to be in 2006, when the beta version of the Zestimate launched. "The Zestimate started out fairly inaccurate, but it didn't matter," Rich Barton, a Zillow cofounder who was then its CEO, recalled in a 2021 podcast episode. "It was provocative." Spencer Rascoff, another cofounder and former CEO, sold his own home in 2016 for 40% less than its Zestimate. The next year, the company offered $1 million to whoever could improve the Zestimate algorithm the most. The winning team, a group of three data scientists working remotely from the US, Canada, and Morocco, beat the Zillow benchmark by 13%.

No misstep appeared more damning, however, than the implosion of Zillow's homebuying business. In 2018, the company launched Zillow Offers, making all-cash offers to sellers looking to move quickly and seamlessly. In theory, Zillow could then turn around and offload the home in short order for a modest fee, plus however much the home had appreciated. The company used a combination of internal algorithms and human analysts to value the home and predict what it could sell for in a few months — in some cases, homeowners could get an immediate cash offer based on their Zestimate with just a few clicks. But the company's forecasts turned out to be way off base. Zillow Offers squandered $422 million in the third quarter of 2021 alone — a Business Insider investigation found that almost two-thirds of the homes listed by Zillow in Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Minneapolis were being marketed at a loss. Amanda Pendleton, a Zillow spokesperson, tells me it was the volatility of the market, not the Zestimate, that really led to the program's downfall. Once the losses came to light, the company swiftly shuttered the division and laid off a quarter of its staff.

I remember wondering whether this would be the death knell for the Zestimate, a kind of algorithm-has-no-clothes moment. I was wrong. Zillow and its best-known creation haven't gone anywhere — the company continues to highlight its progress, providing periodic updates as its data scientists tinker away at the formulas. As search portals like Homes.com and Redfin jockey with Zillow for dominance, the Zestimate is too valuable of an asset to give up. People still flock to Zillow for those little numbers next to each home, for the thrill of feasting their eyes upon something that, like salaries, is considered taboo to talk about in person. For Zillow, that's an unequivocal win.

"It's 100% a marketing tool," says Mike DelPrete, a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder who studies the intersection of tech and real estate. "Like, not even 99%. It's a marketing tool."

James Rodriguez is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.

• The US housing market might be much more friendly to homebuyers in 2025.
• Home sales should rise significantly as inventory grows and prices inch higher.
• Here are 10 real-estate markets that could see a surge of activity next year.

Homebuyers should stock up on champagne — and not just for New Year's Eve.

Next year may present long-awaited opportunities for aspiring property owners to trade their apartments for homes, or for families to get the upgrades they've been pining for. There's a growing sense among real-estate analysts that an extended home sales contraction will snap in 2025 as housing inventory rises and mortgage rates fall.

"Homebuyers will have more success next year," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in a statement about the firm's 2025 outlook. "The worst of the affordability challenges are over as more inventory, stable mortgage rates, and continued job and income growth pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership."

Housing market transactions will soar 7% to 12% in the year ahead to 4.5 million units before an even larger 10% to 15% jump in 2026, according to the NAR. New home sales are expected to climb 11% next year and 8% the year after.

Earlier this month, real-estate brokerage titan eXp Realty's CEO told Business Insider that sales could advance 10% in 2025, though Realtor.com called for a comparatively modest 1.5% gain.

But a home sales boom seems plausible, based on what should be healthy supply and demand.

That inventory uptick will keep property price growth in check at only 2% in each of the next two years, the NAR predicted, which would translate to a median existing-home price of $410,700. And buyers may also move off the sidelines as mortgage rates drift toward 6% from around 7%, the firm added.

"If rates stabilize around 6%, about 6.2 million households can once again be able to afford median-priced homes, compared to the current constraints with rates near 7%," the NAR noted.

Slower home-price growth and lower mortgage rates will go a long way toward easing the affordability crisis that has plagued the US since the pandemic. Just over a year ago, buyers suffered through the least affordable quarter since 1985. That may soon be a distant memory.

10 hot real-estate markets

Home sales should surge across the US next year, especially in a healthy economy with solid job gains. However, researchers at the NAR expect certain cities to be far busier than others.

Buyers will flock to 10 top housing markets in 2025 due to a combination of rising home supply, manageable mortgage rates, and healthy local economies, the firm said. Healthy demand should underpin further home-price appreciation for owners in those metropolitan areas.

These soon-to-be-hot markets share several similarities, including strong property price growth since the pandemic, a sizable supply of starter homes, positive net migration, and an outsized share of out-of-state movers who are buying homes. Other factors were a market's job growth, mortgage rates, how long most homeowners had been there, and the share of millennial renters who could buy. The NAR outlined its full methodology for this exercise in a press release.

Below are the 10 real-estate markets that the NAR is bullish on next year, along with select economic and demographic considerations.

Along with each metro area is its home price growth in the last five years, starter homes as a share of total inventory, the share of homeowners who've been in place for more than 16 years and therefore may be ready to sell, net migration ratio, the share of out-of-state movers purchasing homes, job growth since late 2019, and commentary from the NAR.

1. Boston, Massachusetts

Price appreciation history: 51.5%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 41.1%

Share of long-term homeowners: 10.2%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.1

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 18.8%

Job growth history: -0.2%

Commentary: "Boston's housing market is expected to see significant benefits from stabilizing mortgage rates. With fewer locked-in homeowners, the impact of the 'lock-in effect' may lessen in the coming year as rates stabilize near 6%, encouraging more homeowners to sell and easing inventory constraints in this supply-tight market. Additionally, Boston's mortgage rates have been relatively lower than the national average, which provides a competitive edge in today's challenging financing environment. A lower rate could help mitigate some of the affordability pressures. Surprisingly, Boston has also a larger proportion of starter-homes, with about 41% of the owner-occupied units valued below $550,000."

2. Charlotte, North Carolina

Price appreciation history: 72.8%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 72.8%

Share of long-term homeowners: 46.9%

Net migration to population ratio: 1.4

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 23.5%

Job growth history: 10.1%

Commentary: "With an impressive 10% job growth over the last five years and strong migration gains, Charlotte's economy and housing market are poised for continued growth. More than 11% of the households are set to reach the age of 35 to 40 within the next five years, ensuring sustained demand for housing. Prospective buyers in Charlotte also benefit from a wider range of affordable options, as 43% of homes fall within the starter-home category (priced less than $324,000), making the market particularly appealing to first-time buyers and young families."

3. Grand Rapids, Michigan

Price appreciation history: 64.4%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 39.6%

Share of long-term homeowners: 50.7%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.2

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 38.7%

Job growth history: 3.1%

Commentary: "Grand Rapids offers a unique combination of affordability and promising long-term prospects. With 36% of Millennial renters able to afford homeownership and 12% of households entering prime homebuying age within the next five years, the demand for housing will remain strong. A smaller proportion of originations with rates below 6%, compared to the national level, suggests a reduced 'lock-in effect,' which could lead to more inventory in this area. Additionally, the availability of starter-homes allows newcomers to purchase a home and establish roots, making Grand Rapids a standout market for 2025."

4. Greenville, South Carolina

Price appreciation history: 68.8%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 42.2%

Share of long-term homeowners: 49.7%

Net migration to population ratio: 1.7

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 43%

Job growth history: 8%

Commentary: "Greenville stands out as the area that checks off the most criteria on NAR's top 10 list. This area particularly benefits from a strong net migration rate and affordability. The metro's average mortgage rate of 6.9% in 2023 is well below the national average, providing additional relief for buyers. With 42% of homes categorized as starter homes and 43% of movers purchasing homes, Greenville offers accessibility and stability for families and young professionals alike."

5. Hartford, Connecticut

Price appreciation history: 62.8%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 38.7%

Share of long-term homeowners: 58.1%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.3

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 45%

Job growth history: 0.2%

Commentary: "Hartford offers a favorable financing environment, with an average mortgage rate of 6.5% in 2023 — one of the lowest among the top markets — enhancing affordability for buyers. Additionally, Hartford holds the highest proportion of homeowners surpassing the area's average tenure of 17 years, indicating a potential increase in local inventory, which could help alleviate supply constraints."

6. Indianapolis, Indiana

Price appreciation history: 60%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 41.7%

Share of long-term homeowners: 48.5%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.5

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 21.7%

Job growth history: 9.3%

Commentary: "Indianapolis earned a spot on the list due its strong job growth and housing affordability, which continue to attract new residents and foster a stable demand for housing. Nearly 42% of the housing stock is priced below $236,000, making the market especially appealing to first-time buyers and young families. With fewer 'locked-in' homeowners than the national level, this area is likely to see more available inventory as mortgage rates stabilize around 6% next year."

7. Kansas City, Missouri/Kansas

Price appreciation history: 59.9%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 41%

Share of long-term homeowners: 50%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.3

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 25%

Job growth history: 4.8%

Commentary: "Kansas City is one of the few areas with both a lower average mortgage rate and smaller share of locked-in homeowners, creating favorable conditions for financing and increased inventory. This area is also one of the most affordable markets for Millennial renters, with one in three of them able to afford homeownership. This affordability, combined with its competitive financing environments, makes Kansas City a key player among top-performing housing markets in the coming year."

8. Knoxville, Tennessee

Price appreciation history: 90.9%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 42%

Share of long-term homeowners: 52.9%

Net migration to population ratio: 1.6

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 48.9%

Job growth history: 8.8%

Commentary: “Knoxville made up the top 10 list due to its strong migration gains and the appeal it holds for new residents seeking long-term stability as nearly 50% of movers in Knoxville chose to purchase a home. The impact of the ‘lock-in effect’ is expected to be less pronounced here, as fewer borrowers hold mortgages with rates below 6%. At the same time, homeowners in Knoxville have built substantial wealth, with home prices now nearly double their pre-pandemic levels. This combination of strong migration, high homeownership among movers, and significant wealth gains makes Knoxville a market with strong potential in 2025.”

9. Phoenix, Arizona

Price appreciation history: 72.3%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 39.3%

Share of long-term homeowners: 42.5%

Net migration to population ratio: 0.7

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 35.8%

Job growth history: 11.9%

Commentary: "Phoenix has become a key destination for residents migrating from California, driven by its comparatively lower cost of living and housing affordability. This migration is further supported by Phoenix's strong job growth, which has expanded by 12% in the last five years. This combination of demographic shifts and economic expansion has established Phoenix as a prosperous and dynamic market."

10. San Antonio, Texas

Price appreciation history: 44.8%

Starter homes as share of inventory: 40.5%

Share of long-term homeowners: 48.5%

Net migration to population ratio: 1.3

Share of out-of-state purchasers: 39%

Job growth history: 10.7%

Commentary: "The Texas Triangle couldn't be left off this list. Borrowers in San Antonio were able to secure mortgage rates well below the national average in 2023, at 6.4%. This suggests that buyers in the area benefit from a combination of local market dynamics that lead lenders to assess lower risk in this area. Additionally, San Antonio has experienced one of the strongest rates of job creation since pre-pandemic levels, which continues to draw new residents to the area."

• The infamous "lock-in" effect that's restricting home supply may be going away next year.
• Realtor.com's chief economist expects more homeowners to list their homes for sale in 2025.
• High levels of home equity and life changes will encourage home sales, Danielle Hale said.

2024 has been a tough year for homebuyers.

Affordability levels are still low with elevated home prices and mortgage rates. A huge jump in mortgage rates to around 6.8% today from under 3% in 2022 has also created a "lock-in" effect, where existing homeowners don't want to sell into a higher mortgage rate environment than when many of them bought — further limiting home inventory coming onto the market and sending prices soaring even higher.

There's reason to be optimistic, though. The US housing market will see more favorable buying conditions in 2025, according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. Hale sees two trends that will help encourage existing homeowners to put their homes up for sale.

Existing homeowners have built up home equity

Existing homeowners have reaped big home equity gains in recent years thanks to rapidly rising home values.

Homeowners are also increasing their home equity by making monthly mortgage payments, as those who bought houses a few years ago have had the opportunity to make a sizable dent in their mortgage, Hale said. Homeowners with a smaller mortgage balance may be less sensitive to the higher interest-rate environment of today's housing market.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, homeowners are feeling richer now thanks to the home equity they've accumulated over the last few years of dizzying home price increases. As a result, more listings are being put on the market.

Homeowners can put their home equity to work when they move and buy a new house.

"If they're using their home equity to make a move, that enables them to either be a cash buyer or take out a very small mortgage," Hale said. "That gives them a bit more flexibility in today's market."

Mortgage rates may become less important to buyers and sellers

Homebuying decisions can also be influenced by factors other than mortgage rates or home prices, according to Hale.

The more time that passes since a homeowner's initial purchase, the more likely it is that they'll have a life change requiring them to move, regardless of the cost of moving, Hale said.

People buy houses for reasons other than financial ones, Hale pointed out. Big life changes that could spur a move include a new job, retirement, marriage, or having children.

"All of these can be reasons that people might make a move even if the costs are more expensive to buy a home," Hale said.

Additionally, consumers might be getting accustomed to high mortgage rates, according to Redfin.

"Buyers realized mortgage rates may not drop below 5%, and probably not below 6%, in the near future," Mimi Trieu, a Redfin real-estate agent, said. Existing homeowners holding off on moving due to high mortgage rates may soon give up on waiting it out.

A more "buyer-friendly" housing market

These changes won't be immediate, but they will have a noticeable impact on the housing market, according to Hale. She believes that the housing market is trending in a more "buyer-friendly direction."

"It's going to take more time," Hale said of the lock-in effect. "But as it diminishes, that's going to free up more sellers."

Lower interest rates — and subsequently, lower mortgage rates — would certainly speed up the erosion of the lock-in effect, Hale said. However, even if mortgage rates hover around the 6% range in 2025, which is what Realtor.com expects, the lock-in effect will still fade.

Homebuyers could see a notable change by the end of next year, Hale predicted.

"In mid-2024, 84% of homeowners with a mortgage had a mortgage rate under 6%. We think that by the end of 2025, that share will be 75%," Hale said.

• Realtor.com forecasts that home prices will rise slightly in 2025.
• Researchers expect mortgage rates to come down next year but still remain above 6%.
• There's a silver lining: Increased inventory and new construction may offer buyers some relief.

The housing market in 2024 hasn't been kind to those looking for a home: The age of the typical first-time homebuyer increased by three years, mortgage rates stayed firmly above 6%, and some people felt it would be more affordable to keep renting than to buy.

Although Realtor.com's housing forecast predicts some of the same for 2025, there are a few encouraging signs.

Home affordability has improved modestly after reaching the lowest level in decades last year, and transactions have picked up after an eerily quiet 2023.

Danielle Hale, the chief economist at the real-estate listings and data site, said a "Trump bump" could affect the housing market.

"For now, we expect a gradual improvement in housing market dynamics powered by broader economic factors," Hale said in the forecast. "The new administration's policies have the potential to enhance or hamper the housing recovery, and the details will matter."

Most consumers care about what will happen to home prices and mortgage rates, which directly affect their ability to buy a house.

With that in mind, here are five predictions for the housing market in 2025 from Realtor.com.

1. Home prices will drift higher

The median home sale price nationwide is up 32% since 2019, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. However, it was $420,400 in the third quarter of 2024, down a bit from $435,400 a year earlier.

Buyers are holding out for more relief, but it might not come in 2025.

Barring a serious shock, home prices should continue to climb modestly. Realtor.com predicts that home sale prices will increase by 3.7% in 2025, which would be about a $15,000 jump.

"Prices are going to keep rising because we're not going to have a recession," Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, said in an interview with Business Insider. "If you look at the times that home prices fall, it's typically only when there's a recession, and only when people are forced to sell."

Higher home prices may cause buyers to expand their house hunts to more affordable parts of their states or the country, like the Sunbelt. Twelve of the 16 cities that Realtor.com thinks will have double-digit price appreciation in 2025 are in the Southeast or Southwest.

2. Mortgage rates will stay above 6%

The average 30-year mortgage rate has dipped slightly, to 6.7% from a peak of 7.8% a year ago. Rates dropped to a historically low mark of 2.7% in 2021 and have mostly climbed since then. A pair of interest-rate cuts haven't significantly affected mortgage rates.

Next year's economy will be typified by lower interest rates and steady growth, Realtor.com predicted. The firm expects a rate cut in December and then a few more in early 2025.

That means Realtor.com researchers don't expect mortgage rates to drop dramatically next year, projecting that the 30-year will stay above the 6% threshold and be at 6.2% by the end of 2025.

3. Rents will be roughly the same

Rent growth may stall, as Realtor.com expects US apartment prices to fall 0.1%.

That's largely thanks to a major increase in rental unit inventory. Real-estate site Zumper found that the supply of new apartments in the US hit its highest level in five decades this summer.

"What we've seen over the past couple years is a large uptick in new multi-family construction, and they tend to be released all at once," McLaughlin said. "And so it can have very sharp and especially isolated impacts on rents — in particular — in urban areas where they are built."

Construction trends suggest the rental stock should increase in all parts of the country, but especially in the South, Realtor.com said. New homes and apartments could lead to lower rents in some cities and states.

Landlords may also struggle to raise rent substantially in a strong economy with lower mortgage rates, since renters could walk away from bidding wars and look at buying homes instead.

"When incomes grow enough in the rental segment, those renters tend to convert over to owners," McLaughlin said. "They typically won't use their incomes to bid up rents more — they'll just go and, if they can afford it, they'll go buy a house."

McLaughlin added: "Those that continue to stay renting, landlords don't have the ability necessarily to raise rents at the rates that price growth plays out in most markets."

Still, inventory increases may not translate to meaningful discounts on homes or rental units. Prices almost always rise over time along with the population size and money supply, so while apartments may be easier to find, those pining for pre-pandemic prices could be disappointed.

4. The market will be high on housing supply

Next year's housing market may be marked by sizable increases in home and apartment supply.

An 11.7% jump in existing home inventory and a 13.8% surge in single-family home starts will usher in the first "balanced" housing market in nine years, Realtor.com predicted. That would mean neither buyers nor sellers will have disproportionate leverage in 2025.

New single-family homes are expected to reach 1.1 million, the most since 2006. That should give prospective buyers more chances to score a home.

"While more inventory means buyers will likely have more time to make purchase decisions in 2025, in any market, a fast-acting buyer will have a higher likelihood of making the winning offer," Hale said in the report.

Homes have been in short supply for decades. Despite an uptick in construction, Freddie Mac estimated that the US needed 3.7 million more units to offset the shortage, as of last quarter.

Continued supply improvements mean there should be 4.1 months of homes available in 2025, up from 3.7 months now, Realtor.com said. The National Association of Realtors, a competing firm, reported last month that there was already 4.2 months' supply of existing homes available.

5. Home sales will surge

The housing boom during the pandemic devolved into a bust in 2022 and 2023 — a year in which home transactions reached their lowest levels in decades as housing affordability tanked.

Buyers and sellers are holding out for lower rates, and in the meantime, sales have stagnated.

"What I say to agents very often is, 'We're in a recession of transactions,' which is a different situation than the rest of the economy," Leo Pareja, the CEO of real-estate brokerage giant eXp Realty, said in a recent interview with Business Insider.

Many would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, while those hoping to move were reluctant to sacrifice their modest mortgages. In fact, about 84% of US mortgages are at rates below 5%, Pareja said. For that reason, many baby boomers have held onto their homes, giving younger buyers fewer options.

"If you're locked in at a 3.5% rate — even if you found your dream home, swapping that for a 6.8% rate is virtually impossible," Pareja said.

Lower mortgage rates and higher supply should spark a turnaround for home transactions. Pareja and his colleagues at eXp see sales activity rising 10% next year — far above Realtor.com's 1.5% forecast.

While the housing market overall may still favor sellers, more homes for sale can help buyers secure better deals and more concessions.

President-elect Donald Trump's policies may also be a tailwind for sales activity. Stock-market strategists mostly agree that tax cuts and deregulation will boost business confidence, and McLaughlin suspects that could rub off on homebuyers.

"If you're talking about the resale market, the existing-homes market, it's hard not to become optimistic about just the broader economy, because of things like tax cuts and other benefits to households that might put more money in their pocket at the end of the day," McLaughlin said.

He added, "That might encourage them to go out and either buy a home if they don't currently own one — or grade up to a house maybe they've been waiting to over the last few years."

• Realtor.com just unveiled its 2025 housing market outlook.
• Home values should rise slightly next year as property sales pick up due to lower mortgage rates.
• However, rent should stay in check due to a massive influx of apartment inventory.

Property owners, prospective buyers, renters, and landlords should expect more of the same in the new year — for the most part.

Home sales and the cost of buying or renting won't be much different in 2025, Realtor.com said in its housing forecast published on December 4. The firm's researchers see sales inching 1.5% higher while home prices climb 3.7% — in line with the rate they've risen since 2012 — and rent stays roughly flat at -0.1%. Mortgage rates should also slide slightly, though they'll stay north of 6%.

Those modestly positive projections are based on what Realtor.com expects to be a healthy economic backdrop typified by lower interest rates and steady growth. The Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in December and then a few more times in the first half of the year, the firm said.

Even more vital is that no one, other than a few contrarians, is calling for an economic downturn. Barring a serious shock, home prices should stay elevated and continue to climb modestly, though they're well off their post-pandemic peak.

"Prices are going to keep rising because we're not going to have a recession," said Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, in an interview with Business Insider ahead of the report's release. "If you look at the times that home prices fall, it's typically only when there's a recession, and only when people are forced to sell."

In addition, it's unclear how President-elect Donald Trump's policies will affect the US housing market, though stock market strategists generally agree that tax cuts and deregulation will boost business confidence. McLaughlin thinks that may have a trickle-down effect for homebuyers.

"If you're talking about the resale market, the existing homes market, it's hard not to become optimistic about just the broader economy, because of things like tax cuts and other benefits to households that might put more money in their pocket at the end of the day," McLaughlin said. He added: "That might encourage them to go out and either buy a home, if they don't currently own one — or grade up to a house maybe they've been waiting to over the last few years."

High on supply

While that backdrop mostly represents business-as-usual, next year's housing market may be marked by a significant development: sizable increases in home and apartment supply.

A long-running home shortage is finally easing, as Realtor.com predicts that 2025 will be the first "balanced" housing market in nine years, meaning neither buyers nor sellers will have disproportionate leverage. That's thanks to an 11.7% jump in existing home inventory and a 13.8% surge in single-family home starts.

Home listings have been on the rise recently in most of the 50 largest US real-estate markets, which defies what Realtor.com had thought would be a big drop in inventory this year. However, there's still a shortfall of 3.7 million homes in the US, Freddie Mac estimates.

Continued supply improvements mean there should be 4.1 months of homes available in 2025, up from 3.7 months now, Realtor.com said. The National Association of Realtors, a competing firm, reported last month that there's already 4.2 months' supply of existing homes available.

Rental inventory is also on the rise, as real-estate site Zumper found that the supply of new apartments in the US hit its highest level in five decades this summer.

That dynamic should cause rent growth to stall, McLaughlin said. Home prices likely won't suffer a similar fate, in his view, because single-family supply will come online slower.

"What we've seen over the past couple years is a large uptick in new multi-family construction, and they tend to be released all at once," McLaughlin said. "And so it can have very sharp and especially isolated impacts on rents — in particular — in urban areas where they are built."

With more options, renters won't be forced to endure the abnormally large rent hikes that became more common during and after the pandemic.

Landlords might also struggle to raise rent substantially in a strong economy with lower mortgage rates since renters could walk away from bidding wars and look at houses instead.

"When incomes grow enough in the rental segment, those renters tend to convert over to owners," McLaughlin said. "They typically won't use their incomes to bid up rents more — they'll just go and, if they can afford it, they'll go buy a house."

McLaughlin continued: "So those that continue to stay renting, landlords don't have the ability necessarily to raise rents at the rates that price growth plays out in most markets."

Still, inventory increases likely won't translate to meaningful discounts on homes or rental units. Prices almost always rise over time along with the population size and money supply, so while apartments may be easier to find, those pining for pre-pandemic prices could be disappointed — even in an otherwise solid year.

Evan Duby had been a real-estate broker for just a few years when he decided to try an unusual method of selling a home. Five buyers were offering to pay similar amounts for one of his listings, a one-bedroom co-op unit in a leafy Brooklyn neighborhood with an asking price of $485,000. Rather than instructing the house hunters to submit their best offers and cross their fingers — as is customary in the US — Duby, with his client's permission, convened an auction. The buyers gathered on a conference call, where they signaled their willingness to pay as Duby raised the price in $5,000 increments. The home sold for $505,000. The sellers walked away satisfied, as did the winning buyers; the losing bidders were disappointed, but at least they knew where they stood. For Duby, it was a revelation.

"I don't know what possessed me," Duby tells me. "I was just sort of trying to see, is there a better way to do this?"

Trying to buy a house can feel like playing a game of poker in which one player holds all the cards. When the seller's agent tells you they're weighing another bid, or even 30 other bids, there's no way to tell if their claim is bluster or fact. When you lose, you may not know whether another $10,000 would have sealed the deal or if your insistence on an inspection tanked your chance. The nagging uncertainty isn't limited to buyers. Even in a hot market, a seller may leave the closing table unfulfilled. Did their request for "highest and best" offers actually yield the highest and best? It's hard to say.

It doesn't have to be this way. In Australia, about a third of homes sell via auctions that wrap up in a matter of minutes. Sellers get to see exactly how far buyers are willing to go to nab their dream home; buyers gain a clear picture of what it takes to win in the market. The openness and simplicity stand in sharp contrast to America's system, in which buyers write blind offers and then pray theirs meets the mark.

In the US, open auctions are usually reserved for swanky mansions or, more often, distressed properties facing foreclosure or extensive repairs. Mention an auction and people are likely to ask what's wrong with the house, or how lavishly expensive it is — or, simply, why? Real-estate agents haven't been too keen on making the process more transparent: Conventional wisdom says that asking buyers to submit their best and final offers will elicit the highest price. A FOMO-filled buyer, the thinking goes, may unknowingly blow the competition out of the water and deliver a windfall for the seller.

Despite all that, the idea of open auctions is more tantalizing than ever. Buyers and sellers are exhausted from years of opaque bidding wars — even these days, with the market substantially cooler than it was a couple of years ago, a lack of inventory means homes may still draw multiple offers. The real-estate industry is notoriously resistant to change, but recent class-action lawsuits have rewritten the rules about how buyers pay their agents and opened the door for more overhauls down the line.

Capitalizing on this feeling, a small cadre of companies are trying to bring versions of the Australian model to the States. They face an uphill battle. Duby, who recently started GoEx, a venture-capital firm focused on real-estate tech, is squarely in the ripe-for-change camp, but even he'll admit it's hard to shift the status quo. For roughly a decade after that first auction, he continued to broker deals the conventional way — for American sellers, Aussie-style auctions were a tough sell. But just because they haven't caught on in the States doesn't mean they're destined to remain a pipe dream. Duby imagines a not-so-distant future in which prequalified buyers bid for homes online as if they were picking up a rare watch on eBay.

"I don't see why we don't do that," Duby tells me. "I don't see how that doesn't help."

The man could be mistaken for a pastor: crisp gray suit, arms stretched toward the heavens, a crowd gathered before him. But he's here to sell real estate, not religion.

"Reflect on this absolutely fantastic opportunity in front of you," he booms in a distinctly Aussie drawl. "Not me — the house!"

With that, the auction begins. The property at stake is a quaint one-story home surrounded by a white picket fence in a suburb of Melbourne. The bidding starts at 1.26 million Australian dollars, but the price climbs as the auctioneer needles buyers to dig deeper: "You know you want to!" In the end, it sells for more than 1.5 million Australian dollars, or about $980,000. The whole thing takes less than half an hour.

I watched all this unfold on TikTok, where the account @AuctionReporters maintains a steady stream of these strangely addictive dispatches from Australia's real-estate market. Every now and then a video like this will go viral among Americans who balk at the ritual. An open auction is so vastly different from the secretive practice here in the States that it can break our brains — in a reply to a similar video on X, someone posted, "this is real???"

Real-estate auctions are a time-honored tradition in Australia, dating back more than 200 years to its days as a British colony. Their popularity varies based on location and the strength of the market: In boom times for home sales, more sellers turn to the gavel — a study by Kenneth Lusht, a professor at Pennsylvania State University, found that in some pockets of Melbourne, auctions accounted for as much as 80% of home sales during periods of particularly strong demand. A later study of sales from 2011 to 2019 in the states of New South Wales and Victoria, home to more than half of the country's population, found that 30% to 40% of listings went to auction during that period.

Auctions are risky, to be sure. Homeowners publicly disclose the terms and privately set a reserve price, or the minimum amount they'd accept — if the bidding doesn't reach that figure, the house doesn't sell. A study published in 2022 described such a house as carrying a "stench of failure" and found that it was more likely to sell at a discount later. An auction is basically impossible to stop once it's in motion, and sellers may not always be pleased with the results. But in times of healthy demand for homes, auctions can deliver benefits for sellers looking to ride out the frenzy. The study on the risks of auctions also found significant upsides: Successful sales tended to achieve prices that were 1.2% higher than comparable "private treaty" sales, in which sellers set an asking price and then wait for bids to roll in. A separate 2010 study of a broad swath of Australian home sales also found that auctions tended to yield higher selling prices than the alternative.

It's hard to imagine regular homes in the US trading hands this way. But a handful of companies have proposed a middle ground between the public spectacle of Australia's auctions and America's behind-closed-doors strategy. Final Offer, in Massachusetts, is one online marketplace that mediates auction-ish sales. A real-estate agent can list their seller's property on the platform, specify their asking price and their terms, and input a "final offer price" and specific terms of sale, or the amount a buyer can agree to pay in order to stop the bidding and win outright (similar to eBay's "Buy It Now" feature for auctioned items). When a buyer makes a qualifying offer, the clock starts ticking: The seller can choose to reveal the price and terms of any offer in contention, and interested buyers can try to exceed the bids before the window closes.

Here's a real example: Late this summer, the owner of 5818 Ipswich Road, a two-bedroom home built in 1951 in Bethesda, Maryland, listed it on Final Offer for $650,000. Buyer 1 submitted an offer of $658,125, and the seller agreed to take it if no better offers came in over the next three days. Other buyers soon entered the picture: Buyer 2 bid $661,500. Buyer 1 responded by going $3,000 higher. Over the next two days, Buyers 3, 4, and 5 threw their hats in the ring, and the price climbed above $800,000. At the eleventh hour, Buyer 6 emerged with a bid of $810,573. Then came the kicker: Buyer 1 made the "final offer" of $850,000, ending the bidding process. The entire saga is available for anyone to see on Final Offer's website.

In real estate, it turns out, a little transparency goes a long way. "You're giving buyers information they've never had before about what the seller really wants," says Tim Quirk, who cofounded Final Offer and serves as its chief strategy officer. In a typical sale, spurned buyers rarely walk away knowing what would have won — maybe with that knowledge they would have been willing to up their price or adjust their terms, perhaps waiving an inspection and agreeing to buy the home as is. And sellers, even when they take a deal, never quite know if someone might have gone even higher if they knew what they were up against. "What ultimately ends up happening is you get remorse on both sides of the table," Quirk tells me.

Final Offer is still small — Quirk said that a little more than 1,000 homes had sold on the platform in the two years since it started. Sellers on the site don't have to disclose the prices and terms of offers that come in and can opt to let buyers see only that other offers have been made. But Quirk tells me more than 80% of sellers choose to make the bids public.

SparkOffer, which last year was acquired by Auction.com, is another platform that aims to give buyers a sense of their competition. The site shows buyers how many offers they're competing with and is beta testing a new feature that assigns each bid a score based on its price and proposed terms; when other bids come in, buyers get to see how their score stacks up. They don't know the exact details, but they'll at least have a sense of where they stand and what it might take to climb the ranks. Sellers get to outsource the messy back-and-forth of negotiations to a platform that prods buyers to sweeten their offers — while preserving the possibility that a buyer may unwittingly overbid.

Neither Quirk nor Mike Russo, the founder of SparkOffer, thinks of his platform as an auction exactly. For one, home sales aren't just about price. When a buyer makes an offer, they can propose contingencies, or conditions that need to be met in order for the sale to close. They might request an inspection and ask the seller to make repairs if something comes up. They could retain the right to back out of the deal if an appraiser values the home lower than expected. The buyer could also ask for concessions, or some money back from the seller to cover stuff like closing costs. At the height of the pandemic-era homebuying frenzy, some desperate buyers threw caution to the wind and waived these contingencies — they were simply tired of losing. Bottom line, not all buyers are equal in the eyes of a seller.

To reach widespread acceptance in the US, an auction-esque model would have to let sellers choose the terms that work best for them. Most important, new marketplaces would have to convince American sellers — and their agents — to turn away from tradition. That kind of cultural shift is a tall order. "I don't think the American consumer is ready for auctions yet," says Rob Hahn, the CEO of Decentre Labs, a company he started in 2022 to bring online real-estate auctions to the masses.

But it's unclear who really benefits from the system we have. Buyers rarely get feedback that could help them make stronger offers in the future. Maybe as a seller you'll get lucky and a buyer with blinders will overpay for your house — but that approach is shortsighted, since most sellers have to turn around and purchase another home. The biggest beneficiaries, Duby tells me, may just be real-estate agents: When buyers and sellers are shuffled through this murky process, they'll look for a professional guide.

Australia isn't a perfect analog for the US. The country doesn't have a system of local databases where most homes are listed — as we do in the States with the multiple listing services — which makes it tougher for buyers to find homes. And while most sellers are represented by agents, most buyers are not. But still, hardly anyone is proposing we copy and paste this Australian tradition. The country's real-estate market does tell us, however, that another way is possible.

American consumers may not be ready for auctions yet, Hahn told me. "But it doesn't mean that it's not going to happen at some point."

James Rodriguez is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.

• Floridian homeowners face mounting uncertainties following hurricanes Helene and Milton.
• One resident is afraid of residents abandoning homes after storms if they can't pay to be fixed.
• An inland real-estate agent worries that some snowbirds won't return to buy new properties.

A destructive hurricane season has dealt a blow to Florida's housing market, which was already struggling with surging homeowners' association costs and a home insurance crisis.

In October, the five metropolitan areas nationwide with the biggest year-over-year drops in pending home sales were all located in the Sunshine State, according to a new report from real-estate site Redfin.

Over a four-week period ending November 10, pending home sales dropped 15.2% in Ft. Lauderdale, 14% in Miami, 13.8% in West Palm Beach, 9.5% in Jacksonville, and 7.2% in Tampa.

In Tampa, pending home sales actually fell as much as 32.2% during the month prior, when both Hurricanes Milton and Helene made landfall. The drop has leveled out at 7.2%, indicating the worst impacts may be over.

Pending home sales are deals where a contract is signed, but the sale has not closed. With a typical window of one to two months between the sales of homes and their closings, pending home sales can be an early indicator of market shifts.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton have exacerbated concerns about the future of property values and the cost of homeownership in Florida. After the storms, which made landfall in September and October, the state suffered an estimated $21 to $34 billion in damages, including uninsured properties.

At the same time, insurance experts have raised the alarm that an affordability crisis is likely to worsen. Some Florida cities, like Jacksonville and Cape Coral, saw average home insurance payments for mortgaged single-family residences jump at least 85% since 2019, according to financial services company Intercontinental Exchange.

"Florida represents an outsize amount of risk compared to other areas of the world," Kyle Ulrich, president and CEO of the Florida Association of Insurance Agents, told Business Insider in October.

For some residents, the mood on the ground is anxious.

Three Florida homeowners shared their concerns about the cost of rebuilding after hurricane damage, their home values, and the storms' impact on seasonal residents who are key drivers of the state economy.

Retirees couldn't afford to raise their home, then it was hit by a hurricane

In 2021, Jon and Lyn Drake purchased a home in Yankeetown, Florida, which is about two hours north of Tampa and less than 10 minutes from the shores of the Gulf of Mexico.

Their 800-square-foot house, located just feet away from a small riverbed, had belonged to a neighbor who died and cost them $190,000.

The dream home soon turned into a nightmare for the retired couple, aged 71 and 69. Last fall, Hurricane Idalia floodwaters reached within a foot of the house, the closest it had ever been, prompting Jon to look into services that could raise the home.

The Drakes said they were quoted prices to lift the house from around $130,000 to as high as $229,000, which they felt they couldn't afford.

"There's not a lot of companies that do it here, and it's just really price-gouging right now," Jon told BI.

Then Hurricane Helene barreled through Yankeetown. The couple lost their kitchen appliances, washer and dryer, and a new generator. The floors will have to be torn up.

For now, the couple is waiting to see how their insurance claims shake out to figure out their next steps. They want to rebuild, but are worried about how much of the cost they'll have to shoulder themselves.

"We're in a holding pattern right now," Jon said.

A coastal resident worries about his home value

John Adams, a retiree who lives near Yankeetown in Inglis, said his home was 15 inches away from taking on water during Hurricane Helene.

His home, raised 12 feet above ground, is the highest in his neighborhood, he said.

With the increasing power of storms coupled with skyrocketing insurance costs, Adams worries about homeowners in a pinch walking away from devastated homes. That could, in turn, lower the quality and value of the neighborhood. As Adam sees it, it's in his best interest to help pay for other peoples' homes to be raised.

"I'm in favor of paying for somebody else's fund to raise their homes. Because if we can solve that problem, it helps my values," he said.

Adams thinks either taxes could be raised or a new state agency could be created specifically to focus on raising low-lying homes that are most at risk. Currently, regional authorities like the Southwest Florida Water Management District are tasked with flood prevention and FEMA provides grants to some homeowners after a disaster.

"Nothing is ever going to fix or safeguard homes from flooding except 'elevate, elevate, elevate,'" he said "You can't outrun the water."

A real-estate agent thinks snowbirds could get scared away

In Ocala, located an hour from the Gulf of Mexico coastline, real-estate agent Emily White worries about how the severity of this year's storm will impact the snowbirds.

The annual migration of mostly elderly residents from cold-weather states who flock to the Florida sunshine to ride out the winter months plays a key role in the state's economy.

An estimated 1.5 million seasonal residents make up the snowbird flock, according to the Associated Press, representing a temporary 6.5% bump in the state's population.

"I'm praying the snowbirds come back this year. I need them to come back so I can get some of my listings sold, but we'll see how it's affected," White told Business Insider. "Will they come as hot and heavy as they did before these storms?"

White said a potential buyer from Arizona called her after seeing the devastation of Hurricane Milton, wondering if she might need to alter her plans to buy and how the storms would affect home-insurance costs.

Even if there's no immediate impact this winter, White expects the hurricane jitters to leave a lasting impact. Buyers who were looking at coastal properties might move more inland and some prospective buyers may choose to rent instead, she told BI.

"I think it'll deter people overall," White said.

• Some Florida real-estate developers are building what they call hurricane-resistant communities.
• Techniques used include tying homes down with steel straps and reducing flooding with "smart lakes."
• While no home can be hurricane-proof, these strategies can minimize potential damage, experts said.

Hurricane Milton was barreling toward William Fulford's front door. The mayor of nearby Tampa, Florida, was pleading on television for area residents to leave or die. Still, Fulford, a 76-year-old retired homebuilder, was staying put.

"A lot of people would say I'm crazy," Fulford told Business Insider by phone on October 8, as the storm gained strength in the Gulf of Mexico. "But my house is great."

In 2022, Fulford bought a $1.25 million home in Hunters Point, a community in Cortez, Florida, where properties are raised 16 feet above the ground and tied together with steel straps. Fulford, whose home suffered minimal damage from Hurricane Milton, told Business Insider he believes his home is "hurricane-proof."

More than a few developers are betting on Florida's future by building hurricane-resistant communities like Fulford's. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but the movement toward resilient homes has increased as the climate crisis drives fiercer storms.

The prospect appeals to Florida homeowners grappling with stress and uncertainty as home insurance premiums and homeowners' association, or HOA, fees rise and the risk of severe storm damage mounts. After Hurricanes Helene and Milton in September and October, respectively, the state suffered an estimated $21 to $34 billion in damages to commercial and residential properties, including uninsured properties, according to real-estate analytics site Corelogic.

About two hours southeast of Hunters Point is a development called Babcock Ranch, which bills itself as "The Hometown of Tomorrow." Its builders made efforts to protect its 4,000 homes on about 17,000 acres from storms, including moving utilities underground and avoiding paths of natural water runoff.

A rep said that in the days before Hurricane Milton, Babcock Ranch saw a 390% increase in daily visits to its website. Hunters Point's developer said that two new homes have sold since last month's storm.

Three building experts told Business Insider that no home can be hurricane-proof. However, Leslie Chapman-Henderson, the president and CEO of the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, said that Hunters Point and Babcock Ranch are good examples of what hurricane resiliency can look like.

Building entire resilient communities — instead of one home with beefed-up protections on a block with regular homes — can protect neighborhoods and property values against Florida's unsettled future, she added.

"Our wish is to see all developers do this because they're on the leading edge," Chapman-Henderson said.

Hunters Point homes are high off the ground and air-tight

Hunters Point is in Florida's last working fishing village an hour south of Tampa.

The resiliency of its homes begins with their height. Located on a peninsula jutting out into Sarasota Bay, the development is just feet away from the coastline and vulnerable to storm surges like those seen during Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which reached almost seven feet.

To counteract that risk, Hunters Point homes — which were developed and tested in a warehouse for 18 months — are built so that the bottom floor is a garage and storage, the middle floor is the home's first floor, and another level above has bedrooms — all connected by an elevator.

"You don't step into the house until you're 16 feet above the flood zone," developer Marshall Gobuty told Business Insider.

Currently, 31 of the 86 planned units at Hunter's Point have been built, with homes ranging in price from $1.45 million for nearly 1,700 square feet to $1.69 million for over 3,400 square feet.

Another feature of the homes is an extra-fortified base, in which the slab and foundation are poured together as one piece. The homes' walls are built with 2x6 beams instead of 2x4 beams to increase resiliency and allow for more insulation. The sides of the walls, the ceilings, and the roof are then filled in with closed foam to make the home airtight.

Every level is reinforced with metal straps all the way down to the foundation to hold the home together.

These connections — roof to walls, walls to each other, and walls to foundation — are fundamental to building a house that can withstand hurricane-force winds.

Chapman-Henderson said the real innovations built into these homes are the fortifications against the wind: the walls bolted into the foundation and the sturdier wood in the frames.

Any vulnerability in those structural connections could doom the whole house. When that happens, "usually roofs blow off first because they're not connected well to the walls, and then the walls don't have any lateral support, and they go, and you've lost the whole building," Mike O'Reilly, a licensed engineer and construction instructor at Colorado State University, told BI.

In Hunters Point homes, though, "everything is connected. There are no seams," Gobuty told BI. "Every house is built like a Yeti cooler."

Babcock Ranch uses "smart ponds" to manage flooding

Babcock Ranch in Punta Gorda, Florida, is built on land 30 feet above sea level, far from the coast.

So far, 3,752 homes have been built out of a planned 19,500 units. The development functions like a city, with an elementary school, a middle school, a high school, a shopping district, a recreation lodge, and dozens of hiking trails. Homes on the market range from a two-bedroom condo for $255,000 to a four-bedroom single-family home with its own pool for $1.695 million.

When developer Syd Kitson purchased the land in 2006, his team spent hours poring over maps dating back to the 1940s to find the property's natural flowways, which are how excess water naturally runs out of the area during flooding.

The team intentionally sacrificed building thousands of units to leave that land untouched.

"That's part of working with Mother Nature, rather than working against Mother Nature," Kitson told BI.

Babcock Ranch also has "smart lakes," or man-made bodies of water throughout the development. These lakes have solar-powered pumps with predictive analytics that raise and lower the lake's height when a storm nears. If the area expects major flooding, the smart lakes will lower to prepare for the increased rainfall.

"Our philosophy is to do everything in our power to be as resilient as we possibly can," Kitson said.

Babcock Ranch welcomed its first residents in 2018. It faced its first major test in 2021 when the eye of Category 4 storm Hurricane Ian brought 150 mph wind gusts to the development. The property only sustained minimal damage, including fallen trees and a few broken solar panels, Kitson said.

Downed power lines and dayslong blackouts often affect large swaths of the state following major hurricanes. Babcock Ranch placed all utilities, including water, electricity, and wastewater, underground to prevent that.

"You won't see a single utility pole in Babcock Ranch," Kitson said.

The submerged power poles are built in concrete tubes designed to withstand 165 mph wind gusts.

Chapman-Henderson, of the nonprofit that advocates for safe homes, called the smart lakes and buried utilities "innovative" and added that recent storms have proven these strategies are effective.

Babcock Ranch is so well regarded for its safety during a storm that the elementary school's fieldhouse serves as a state- and county-designated evacuation center. Built to withstand 150 mph wind gusts, the fieldhouse provided shelter for 1,300 Floridians during Hurricane Milton.

"We're not a place where you evacuate. We're a place where people being ordered to evacuate come," Kitson said.

Hurricane resistance is the future of Florida homebuilding

Hunter's Point and Babcock Ranch are part of a growing movement for more resilient homes.

Chapman-Henderson warned, however, that residents shouldn't let their home's sturdiness make them complacent. They should still evacuate if authorities call for it.

"We can build to withstand these events, but we should never say it's absolute without fail," she said.

Calling a house 100% hurricane-proof is "like calling the Titanic unsinkable," O'Reilly said.

Though there isn't a single national standard for hurricane-resistant buildings, Fortified — a program run by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, an industry-backed research group — evaluates one of the most critical structures for a home's resiliency: its roof. Fortified grants certifications to homeowners who strengthen their roofs through different methods, such as using grooved, ring-shank nails instead of traditionally smooth ones.

More homeowners are requesting to have their roofs certified as stronger-than-average, Fred Malik, managing director of Fortified, told BI. Fortified certifications have risen from less than 1,000 in 2016 to nearly 12,000 last year, bringing the grand total to nearly 70,000 over the program's lifetime, Malik added. The program anticipates adding another 17,000 by the end of this year.

Though Hunters Point and Babcock Ranch have not yet participated in Fortified, Malik said the measures their builders are taking seem effective.

"I get really nervous when anybody refers to anything as something 'proof,'" Malik told BI. "But they are making some really good decisions."

Three years ago, when Mark Goff and Phillip Engel had their first viewing of Château Avensac in the south of France, only one thing prevented the California couple from putting in an offer: Was it old enough?

The gate tower, supporting walls, and stone bridge at the estate's entrance date back to the original medieval castle built in 1320. But the main building — a 48-room château with sweeping views of the Gers, the rural, foie-gras-producing region of southwest France — was rebuilt in the 1820s. "The idea of the royals and the nobles, to us, is a very romantic idea," Goff says. "That's why we love 'Bridgerton.'"

In the end, they decided there was "just enough 14th-century château stuff going on" to fulfill their fantasies and make it their new home. The place was certainly big enough to host weddings and artist retreats, a business the couple was counting on to help pay for the extensive renovations that would be required. By the fall of 2021, Château Avensac was theirs for $1.2 million.

That's when reality set in.

The château had exposed electrical wiring, "nonexistent" plumbing, and stone walls that retained moisture. Everywhere they looked, there was something in need of work. So far, they've spent $500,000 updating the château's electricity, heat, and plumbing, fortifying the foundations, and replacing the roof. They've budgeted for $500,000 more. "Everyone said, 'You have to assume everything is going to be double what you expect.' And they were kind of right," Engel says. "We didn't really listen to that part."

All across France, there's a glut of châteaus for sale. While the average asking price is $2 million, smaller châteaus can go for a couple hundred thousand. A few, like the palatial mansion nicknamed the "Little Versailles of the Pyrenees," are even being given away. But there's a reason they're on the market: The properties are huge money pits.

Real estate agents say buyers should expect to set aside as much as 1.5% of the purchase price for annual maintenance, and significantly more if the château requires extensive renovations. And if the place is classified as a historic monument, as some 15,000 are, add to the process a small mountain of French bureaucracy. Plans require approval by the French minister of culture, and work must be done by designated specialists. In all of France, there are just 31 architects accredited to run these projects. What's more, the places tend to be woefully outdated and incredibly isolated.

"It's true, you can buy a château in France for nothing," says Adrian Leeds, an American real estate agent who's been in France for 30 years. "There's a reason for that: because nobody wants them!"

That is, the French don't want them. Americans very much do. "There was a razzia" — a plundering raid — "right after the pandemic," says Gonzague Le Nail, a French real-estate agent who specializes in châteaus. Most of the interest used to come from foreign buyers in the market for a second home, but now, Le Nail says, it's from families looking to relocate to the French countryside and use the château as their primary residence. Half the châteaus around Paris are foreign-owned, and inquiries from Americans are up across France.

The day they signed the deed of sale, Goff and Engel invited over all 74 residents of the town of Avensac and served them Champagne, impressing their new neighbors with the decidedly un-aristocratic sensibility they brought to their aristocratic new digs. A few months later, they hosted a "spooky Halloween" party. "They're very open, very nice, and very low-key," says Mayor Michel Tarrible, who's been a recipient of the couple's homemade cookies.

This was not Goff and Engel's first time taking on an extreme fixer-upper. In 2009, they bought a place in Sonoma County, north of San Francisco, that took a decade to renovate. They did much of the work themselves, much of it at night and on weekends. Goff documented the process on his blog. (Goff is a graphic designer, while Engel works in tech.) They ultimately sold the house for twice what they had put in.

Around 2020, Goff happened upon a #chateaulife vlog on YouTube, where a family was documenting the highs and lows of buying and renovating a château. He couldn't believe how cheap the properties were going for, and he pitched Engel on the idea of moving abroad.

"In California you can flip houses and make a lot of money," Goff says. "I knew going into this that it's not going to be like that. You do it because you want to live this kind of rustic, ruined lifestyle in the south of France."

Another chatelain, Abigail Carter, describes a similar trajectory: She had some experience transforming old, dilapidated homes when, as she puts it, she became "obsessed" with buying a château in France.

Originally from Canada, Carter and her husband lived in a succession of fixer-uppers in London, Massachusetts, and New Jersey as they moved around for work and grew their family. After her husband died in the September 11, 2001, attacks — he was visiting a trade show at the World Trade Center that day — Carter relocated to Seattle with their two kids. By 2021 she was living in a converted firehouse she'd renovated and wondering what was next for her.

She found her answer bingeing #chateaulife vlogs on YouTube. "For less than half of what you would pay here for a house, you can get an entire château," she recalls thinking. "I decided not buying a château in France was going to be more detrimental to my health than buying one."

Carter made two visits to France before finding a property she felt she could handle on her own. Château de Borie, a 12-bedroom château near Agen, had been vacant for four years. "It was almost like 'The Grinch Who Stole Christmas' with all the wires hanging," Carter recalls. But the place had good bones. Carter closed on the place in 2022, paying $610,000 and budgeting another $200,000 for furnishings and renovations.

Panic kicked in almost immediately. "My God," she remembers thinking. "What am I doing? Why am I doing this?"

Last year, an enormous cliff above Carter's property split open and rained rubble down on her property. It will likely take tens of thousands of euros to remove the debris and secure what remains of the cliff. "The cliff has been there for 300 years and it's been fine," she says. "Of course, I've owned it for a year and a half and this thing comes down on me."

But the experience has also been thrilling. "I'm bringing this house up in terms of its elegance again," she says. "French style doesn't change. It's very understated and very elegant."

Recently, a young family from Paris inherited a nearby château and began coming down for weekends. Carter says it's slowly dawning on them what it will cost to maintain it.

"They love it, but it's crumbling — literally crumbling," Carter says.

For many French sellers, what strikes Americans as romantic has come to feel like a curse. Château de l'Espinay, a 15-room manor in Brittany, has been in the family of Williams Henrys d'Aubigny for 250 years. His father, on his deathbed, made him promise never to sell. But at 79, he's overwhelmed by the time and money the property requires. He has no children of his own, and none of his younger relatives have any interest in moving to northwestern France to take over the place.

Henrys d'Aubigny, like many French owners who feel weighed down by history, is desperate to sell. But he's also prone to overvaluing what that history is worth. It's been five years since he listed the château for $2.7 million, and he still doesn't have a buyer. He estimates it needs $100,000 worth of renovations, though his real-estate agent says it's more like $1 million. There's mold, and only one functioning bathroom. The place is so expensive to heat that Henrys d'Aubigny sleeps in a guest cottage during the winter.

"He's very, very attached to his château," his agent says. "It's all he talks about. He thinks you can't put a price on culture."

For years, Henrys d'Aubigny has been holding out for a buyer who will love the place as much as he does. But then a couple from Ohio bought a château up the road; he came to admire their commitment and tasteful renovation. He now says his preferred buyer is "an American who's got a lot of money."

Most of the Americans who take on a château aren't looking for a European life of leisure. Their goal is to start a business. Carter, who just hosted her first retreat at Château de Borie, eventually hopes to generate $60,000 a year by marketing the romance of rural France to Americans and Canadians. She plans to host creative retreats for painters and writers, and "healing" retreats for widows. On her website, she sells château-themed T-shirts and art prints, and she has amassed 48,000 subscribers on her Chateau Chronicles channel on YouTube. In a recent video, she toured the grounds of her château and wondered aloud how this was all "somehow mine."

At Château Avensac, things have turned out to be even more difficult than Goff and Engel bargained for. Two years ago, Goff woke up from spinal surgery paralyzed from the chest down. The condition is temporary, but regaining the use of his legs has been a slow and difficult process, requiring five or six days a week of physical therapy. A wheelchair isn't the best way to move around a 48-room château, but Goff is making do.

Goff and Engel say they're on track to soft-launch their events business in 2025. They've also started selling château swag on their website, and they've set up a Patreon account so their fans can support the work they're doing to reclaim a part of France's history and culture.

"I live in a château," Engel reminds himself when he's feeling overwhelmed. "Yes, it's a crumbling château. But it's still a château. And there's something very romantic about that."

• Florida is one of the most popular destinations for people moving from one US state to another.
• New census data shows that many more people moved into Florida than left between 2022 and 2023.
• The number of people leaving is up over issues such as rising costs and natural disasters.

When Derek Edwards was living in Wisconsin and Colorado, he often traveled to the Caribbean via Florida.

He liked his layovers so much that he decided to move to Miami when he was 28. Edwards, a teacher, said the weather has been worth it even if rent and groceries are more expensive.

"It's just beautiful," he told Business Insider earlier this year. "Just in case I don't stay in Florida forever, I'm going to go to the beach as much as I can."

Drawn by the balmy climate, numerous outdoor activities, and more, hundreds of thousands of movers like Edwards choose Florida every year. Census data released on October 17 indicates that between 2022 and 2023, nearly 637,000 people moved to Florida from another state, while nearly 511,000 left the Sunshine State for somewhere else in the US.

Those estimates come from the Census Bureau's release on state-to-state migration flows based on results from the 2023 American Community Survey. The annual survey asks, among many demographic and economic topics, whether respondents moved in the past year and, if so, which state they used to live in.

The net inflow during this period, however, was not as dramatic as in the previous year. From 2021 to 2022, nearly 739,000 people moved to Florida, while almost 490,000 left for another state.

Florida leavers have told BI in interviews that they are motivated by various factors, including increasing insurance costs, a rising cost of living overall, and the increasing intensity of natural disasters.

Read on for an analysis of where movers to Florida came from, based on census estimates — and where Sunshine State leavers headed for greener pastures.

New Yorkers continue flocking to Florida

New Yorkers still move to Florida in droves.

The New York-to-Florida route taken by over 71,000 people was the second-most-popular route for all movers within the US between 2022 and 2023 — behind only California to Texas. Still, it's a big drop from the 91,000 movers from New York to Florida between 2021 and 2022.

Many New Yorkers flee south in search of a cheaper life and better weather, though SmartAsset's analysis of IRS tax data found those who made the move in 2023 didn't save as much as those in previous years.

Most still do save money: Someone making $100,000 in New York could save $37,166 yearly in Miami in 2023, compared with the $51,273 they might have saved in 2019, SmartAsset found. This is partly due to Florida's rising utilities and housing costs.

Nearly 44,500 people moved from Georgia to Florida between 2022 and 2023 — even though about 55,000 people moved from Florida to Georgia, likely driven by Georgia's relatively lower cost of living.

Over 39,000 left California for Florida in that same period. Some people who moved out of the Golden State told BI their decisions were due to rising costs and shifting politics. Terry Gilliam, who moved from California to Florida over weather and political concerns, has started Facebook groups helping others make similar moves, which have attracted almost 300,000 members in total.

People who move out of Florida tend to stay in the South

Like in last year's release, Georgia was the most-popular state for those leaving Florida.

Some former Florida residents who moved to Georgia have said they wanted a similar climate but needed to leave as the Sunshine State became more expensive and commercialized. Others cited skyrocketing home-insurance costs.

• Barbara Corcoran says it's "disturbing" how young people are being locked out of the housing market.
• The "Shark Tank" investor pointed to first-time buyers getting older and losing out to cash buyers.
• Corcoran said Trump-fueled inflation and stubborn rates are risks, and she doesn't see a bubble.

High prices, steep mortgage rates, and fierce competition are locking young people out of becoming homeowners, Barbara Corcoran says.

The "Shark Tank" investor and real-estate tycoon pointed to "disturbing" data from the 2024 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers during a recent interview on "Cavuto: Coast to Coast" on the Fox Business Network.

The founder of The Corcoran Group said the share of first-time buyers dropped from 32% last year to a record low of 24%. The percentage of cash buyers — who tend to be investors or second-home buyers — hit a record high of 26%. Plus, the median age of first-time buyers climbed from 35 to 38.

The report suggests that first-time buyers are increasingly being outbid by investors or people buying second or third homes who are paying in cash, and many are having to wait until they're nearly 40 to become homeowners.

All about that rate

The median sale price for existing homes rose 4% to $407,200 in October, marking the 16th straight month of year-over-year price gains, per the National Association of Realtors. Sales did rise 2.9% from a year earlier, the first year-over-year increase since the summer of 2021.

Corcoran said transactions had picked up because buyers were used to higher rates and "got tired of waiting" for them to dip. Yet she emphasized that a significant fall in rates would be "incredible" for home sales.

"Anything with a 5% in front of it is going to make this market go ballistic," she said.

Bankrate data shows the average 30-year mortgage rate soared from 3.2% at the end of 2021 to a two-decade high of 7.9% in October last year, but has since dropped to 6.9%.

President-elect Trump's plans to cut taxes and impose tariffs have stoked fears that price growth could accelerate, pushing rates higher. "Inflation is on everyone's mind and I think it's risky," Corcoran said.

She predicted mortgage rates would hover around 6% or go lower. Any rise "would slow down the market, it would slow down the whole economy, it would slow down all the support services for the housing market — it would be a terrible thing."

Corcoran also dismissed concerns that the housing market is overheated and headed for a slump. She cited the low percentage of home purchases made as investments, saying a surfeit of investors "creates a bubble big time."

"This is nothing like the last bubble," she said. "I don't see a bubble at all."

• Meredith Whitney expects home prices to fall by 10% to 20% as the frozen housing market starts thawing.
• The veteran researcher said baby boomers aren't selling, restricting the number of homes available.
• Prices rose in September but existing-home sales fell and the share of first-time buyers remained low.

Home prices are poised to fall by up to a fifth as the frozen housing market thaws — and that could help baby boomers sell at last and younger people to become homeowners, Meredith Whitney says.

"It's got to be a two-step process," the CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group told the Financial Sense Newshour podcast in an episode released Saturday.

"You have to have rates come down, but you also have to have home prices come down," she said about revitalizing the housing market. "One doesn't work on its own."

Homebuyer headaches

Housing transactions have stagnated in recent years as soaring prices and steeper mortgage interest rates have fueled an affordability crisis.

Homeowners who locked in cheap mortgages are reluctant to sell and give them up. Prospective buyers are similarly unwilling to pay top dollar for a worse house than they imagined and take on a larger monthly mortgage payment.

Some relief has come from the Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark rate by 75 basis points since September to as low as 4.5%. The central bank raised the rate from virtually zero to as high as 5.5% between March 2022 and July 2023.

Even so, the median existing-home price jumped 3% to $404,500 in the 12 months to September, per the latest National Association of Realtors data.

Existing-home sales fell 3.5% over the same period, and first-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in September, in line with lows hit in August this year and November 2021.

Price declines and baby boomers

Whitney was dubbed the "Oracle of Wall Street" after correctly predicting the 2008 financial crisis, which was precipitated by the collapse of a massive housing bubble.

She predicted house prices would fall by 10% to 20% from here, and urged the government to "sit back and let that happen" because that would only lower them to 2020 or 2021 levels. Homeowners would likely despair a sharp drop in the value of their homes, but many have built huge amounts of home equity over time, she said.

As for why younger millennials and Gen Z are struggling to get on the housing ladder, Whitney pointed to homeowners in their sixties and seventies staying put.

"The problem is the baby boomers own 60% of the housing stock," she said, referring to single-family, owner-occupied homes. "They're not moving."

"The older people aren't selling; they have no place to go," she continued, adding that they "can't afford to move." She highlighted increases in property taxes, homeowners' insurance, and homeowners' association fees as one source of financial strain, especially for those on fixed incomes.

Whitney described the situation as a "generational schism" in a CNBC interview last week and warned there will be a "real standoff between sellers and buyers" until more inventory becomes available.

Several economists have predicted a "silver tsunami" as baby boomers sell their homes to downsize or move into care homes, increasing the available supply of single-family homes and reducing prices.

However, a recent survey found that 54% of older Americans intend to remain in their current homes for life, while only 15% said they planned to sell in the next five years.