Welcome to Edition 7.26 of the Rocket Report! Let's pause and reflect on how far the rocket business has come in the last 10 years. On this date in 2015, SpaceX made the first attempt to land a Falcon 9 booster on a drone ship positioned in the Atlantic Ocean. Not surprisingly, the rocket crash-landed. In less than a year and a half, though, SpaceX successfully landed reusable Falcon 9 boosters onshore and offshore, and now has done it nearly 400 times. That was remarkable enough, but we're in a new era now. Within a few days, we could see SpaceX catch its second Super Heavy booster and Blue Origin land its first New Glenn rocket on an offshore platform. Extraordinary.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Our annual ranking of the top 10 US launch companies. You can easily guess who made the top of the list: the company that launched Falcon rockets 134 times in 2024 and launched the most powerful and largest rocket ever built on four test flights, each accomplishing more than the last. The combined 138 launches is more than NASA flew the Space Shuttle over three decades. SpaceX will aim to launch even more often in 2025. These missions have far-reaching impacts, supporting Internet coverage for consumers worldwide, launching payloads for NASA and the US military, and testing technology that will take humans back to the Moon and, someday, Mars.
"Competition in 2025 will be fiercer than ever," Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng wrote in an internal letter obtained by The Wall Street Journal.
Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images
Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng said that competition within the auto sector will be even more heated in 2025.
He said in an internal letter that the industry will face an "elimination round" from 2025 to 2027.
The Xpeng founder-CEO said in November that most Chinese carmakers wouldn't survive the next decade.
Competition within the auto industry will become even more cutthroat in the years ahead, Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng said in a letter to his company's staff last month.
"The period from 2025 to 2027 marks the elimination round in the automotive industry," He wrote in an internal letter obtained by The Wall Street Journal.
"Competition in 2025 will be fiercer than ever," He added.
In 2024, Xpeng delivered 190,068 vehicles, a 34% increase from the 141,601 vehicles delivered in 2023, per a company filing. The company's vice-chairman and president, Brian Gu, said in March that Xpeng is on track to "achieve profitability at some point in 2025."
Tesla, the world's largest EV maker, delivered 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, a 1% decrease from the 1.81 million vehicles delivered in 2023.
Xpeng did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
He made similar statements on the auto industry's outlook last year. In November, the Xpeng founder-CEO said in an interview with Singaporean newspaper The Straits Times that most Chinese carmakersΒ won't survive past the next decade.
"From 300 start-ups, only 100 of them survived. Today, there are fewer than 50 companies that still exist, and only 40 of them are actually selling cars every year," He told the outlet.
"I personally think that there will only be seven major car companies that will exist in the coming 10 years," he added, without specifying who he thought the surviving companies would be.
In March, He told Singaporean broadcaster CNA that the Chinese EV industry will see a "knockout tournament" in the next three to four years, followed by an "all-star competition" in the next seven to eight years.
To be sure, He isn't the only auto executive who expects intense competition in the industry.
In October, Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola KΓ€llenius told attendees at the Berlin Global Dialogue conference that Western automakers are fighting an existential battle against their Chinese counterparts.
"It's strange. It's a Darwinistic-like price war, market purification. And many of those players that are around now. Many of those are not going to be around five years from now," KΓ€llenius said.
Tesla has revealed a new-look Model Y meant for the Chinese and other Asian-Pacific markets, marking the first major update to the SUV since its launch in 2020. The redesign comes as Tesla finished 2024 having delivered fewer vehicles than it did in 2023. It was the first year-over-year drop since the company started selling [β¦]
Volkswagen-backed startup Scout Motors broke cover just a few months ago, and at this weekβs CES 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada, they hold the honor of being one of the only American automakers with a presence at the show.Β Thatβs not the only thing that stands out about Scout being here, though. In a sea [β¦]
A month ago, a video circulated around social media of a Waymo robotaxi stuck in a roundabout loop β an isolated incident with no passengers in the vehicle, according to Waymo. Apparently, it wasnβt a one-time thing. Around the same time, in another Waymo robotaxi headed for the Phoenix airport, Mike Johns, founder and CEO [β¦]
For the autonomous vehicle-obsessed, the Waymo-Zeekr robotaxi is nothing new. In 2021, Waymo and Zeekr announced a partnership. Waymo first showed a concept of the purpose-built robotaxi in late 2022 and began testing prototype versions on public roads in San Francisco last year, even as it began rolling out its commercial fleet of Jaguar I-Pace [β¦]
Honda unveiled Tuesday at CES 2025 the latest EV in its 0 Series β a midsized SUV prototype dubbed, surely enough, the 0 SUV. Hondaβs take on the SUV will join the 0 Saloon that the automaker showed off at last yearβs show. And while Honda first showed us the 0 Saloon, the SUV will [β¦]
BMW is totally revamping its in-car user interface, starting with the Neue Klasse sedan later this year and ultimately spreading to all models, the company announced at CES 2025. Some of it looks and feels familiar, but the big change is a widget-based system that lets users customize the layout β including on the carβs [β¦]
Uber will use Nvidiaβs new generative world model simulation tool, Cosmos, and cloud-based AI supercomputing platform, DGX Cloud, to support the development of autonomous vehicle technology, the companies announced at CES 2025. Cosmos is being marketed to robotics and autonomy companies as a tool that generates physics-based videos from a variety of inputs, including 9,000 [β¦]
May Mobility, an autonomous vehicle technology startup, unveiled at CES 2025 the next vehicle in its portfolio: an electric, autonomous minibus made in partnership with European electric bus manufacturer Tecnobus.Β Ann Arbor-based May Mobility offers on-demand and fixed-route autonomous shuttles on campuses and in planned communities.Β Today its fleet consists of 40 Toyota Sienna minivans that [β¦]
John Deere has a bunch of new products that it just showed off at CES 2025, including an electric robot lawnmower meant for commercial-grade landscaping. Powered by a 21.4kWh battery β roughly a quarter the size of what youβd find on a passenger EV β the company says the mower is supposed to be able [β¦]
Alex Witt said venture capitalists have an unprecedented chance to back five transformative technologies: Generative AI, robotics, autonomous electric vehicles, blockchain, and biotech.
Courtesy of Alex Witt
Founding partner Alex Witt shared three venture capital predictions for the next decade.
Witt says that managers who've launched less than three funds will get more attention.
He also says that five key technologies and the African market will see more investments.
Since venture capital funds plummeted from 2021 to 2023, VCs are looking for ways to stop the pain and regain a sense of control over their future. Still, many VCs predict the industry will significantly decline in 2025 due to high interest rates.
Alex Witt, general partner at Verda Ventures and cofounder of the payment platform SWFT Blockchain agrees with recent predictions.Based on his 14 years of experience in finance and technology, Witt also gave Business Insider three more core predictions for the VC industry's next decade.
He believes technological opportunity combined with changing demographics will shape the VC experience over the next 10 years, creating more investment space for emerging managers, five key technologies, and Africa.
1. Emerging managers will drive the highest returns in the next decade
As limited partners recognize that successful Fund 1s don't necessarily translate into successful Fund 2s or 3s, the VC landscape will see a greater focus on new managers who've launched less than three funds.
"Emerging managers have been traditionally underfunded despite their success," Witt explained.
For context, Witt explained that larger funds have a track record of underperforming: only 17% of funds larger than $750 million return over 2.5 times of capital. Yet smaller funds have been proven to consistently outperform.
"Funds under $249 million are disproportionately represented in the top decile and quartile of performers," he said. Witt explained that targeting smaller, high-performing funds will be critical for future success.
2. VCs have an unprecedented chance to back five transformative technologies
According to Witt, we're entering a new "industrial renaissance" fueled by breakthroughs in five key technologies he believes have massive VC potential.
Generative AI: Witt predicts that key players in this arena will be companies with unique datasets, such as Google with YouTube data and xAI with X and Tesla data. Generative AI will even affect the finance and pharmaceutical industries.
"Some impacts of generative AI to watch for include drug discovery with even faster trials and finance with real-time, data-driven trading.
Robotics: Witt pointed to innovations like generative AI-driven physical AI β for example, Nvidia β and referenced Tesla. "Market leader Tesla is positioned to dominate this area with its 'robots on wheels' approach to manufacturing."
Autonomous electric vehicles: Witt saidChinese carmakerBYD stands out as a global leader in data access and scalable manufacturing. "In terms of cost impact, more than 70% of Uber ride costs are labor-related, and autonomous transport will significantly reduce expenses," he said.
Blockchain: Accessibility is an area to watch in blockchain. Witt said blockchain enables low-cost, borderless transactions, and more markets are using it. "For example, MiniPay, the #1 app in Kenya, surpassed Facebook and Instagram in downloads."
Biotech: As an emerging technology, Witt explained that gene-based therapies offer precision treatments for inherited or environmental genetic abnormalities. "As examples, Moderna's mRNA success foreshadows the broader potential of CRISPR and similar technologies," he said.
"This era is reminiscent of the early 20th century's transformative, broad-based innovations like electricity and the internal combustion engine," Witt said. For VCs, Witt believes the coming decade marks a rare chance to back category-defining companies in emerging industries β but he emphasized that success won't come easy.
"VCs will face the challenge of identifying category-defining winners," Witt said. "As history shows, industries tend to consolidate around one or two dominant players, with only a small fraction of companies emerging as leaders β think Amazon and Google among the dot-com era's 500 IPOs."
3. Africa and the Global South will lead in VC-backed innovation
Beyond technology, Witt stressed that demographics are a critical and often overlooked factor shaping VC trends. He projects that population dynamics will increasingly determine the locations where innovation thrives.
"Demographics are destiny," Witt said.
He predicts that VCs will increasingly allocate capital to the Global South, particularly Africa, due to its "explosive" consumer and market growth potential.
"This shift will redefine traditional portfolio strategies, emphasizing demographic-driven investments," Witt said.
As support for his prediction, Witt noted that Africa leads global population growth, and that all of the top 20 fastest-growing populations are in the Global South.
He added that countries with aging populations and declining birth rates, such as Korea, with a fertility rate of 0.68, face a shrinking workforceand reduced appetite for risk and technological adoption.
In contrast, he believes that regions like Africa, with a fertility rate of 4.18, offer a young, growing population and expanding market potential.
"This is why some VCs are betting on the Global South as the next frontier for innovation and growth," Witt concluded. "Large populations equal large markets, and big markets mean that one or two successful companies can offset eight or nine failures, which is critical for VC success."
If you're a VC who would like to share your thoughts on the industry, please email Manseen Logan at [email protected].
Volkswagen offshoot Scout Motors is getting a jump-start on CES 2025 next week, with some good news for people who plan to take the companyβs EVs way, way outdoors: The forthcoming Traveler SUV and Terra pickup will have a built-in satellite connection. Scout Motors isnβt saying where itβs sourcing the satellite linkup hardware from, or [β¦]
Rivian finished last year having delivered 51,579 electric SUVs, trucks, and vans, more than triple the number it shipped to customers in 2023. The company announced Friday that it also built 49,476 EVs in 2024. Thatβs about 8,000 fewer than it expected to manufacture as recently as July. Rivian was forced to lower its expectations, [β¦]
Tesla's fourth-quarter sales for 2024 topped 2023, but full-year sales fell short.
Grzegorz Wajda/SOPA/Getty Images
Tesla said on Thursday that it sold about 1.79 million cars in 2024.
It's the automaker's first year-over-year decline.
Shares fell by about 6% in early trading following the release.
Tesla's annual vehicle sales dropped for the first time in 2024 as it battled industrywide headwinds and increasing competition.
Elon Musk's electric automaker said on Thursday that it sold about 1.79 million cars in 2024, falling just short of the previous year's 1.8 million and rounding out a difficult year for electric vehicles overall.
During the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 495,570 cars to customers. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected about 510,000. Shares fell by about 6% in early trading.
Despite falling short of analysts' expectations, Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries increased by more than 11,000 vehicles over the same period in 2023.
But sales could get even tougher for Tesla and its competitors. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end consumer tax credits, which effectively lower vehicle prices by up to $7,500. Sticker prices remain stubbornly high compared with traditional gas-powered options.
Many consumers have turned to hybrids over pure EVs. Hybrids can offer many of the gas savings and environmental benefits for less money and without any lifestyle changes.
Ominous signals in the market haven't shaken Musk, who has repeatedly hyped autonomy as the latest competitive edge for Tesla β and said that buying any other car would be a financial mistake.
Tesla has promised an autonomous "Cybercab" and a cheaper car model in the coming year.
Tesla delivered fewer cars last year than it did in 2023, marking its first year-to-year drop and signaling that the company is struggling to reach new buyers. That means Teslaβs Cybertruck, which is the companyβs first true new model since 2020, did little to boost the companyβs growth in its first full year of sales. [β¦]
A Tesla Cybertruck erupted in flames on New Yearβs Day outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, leaving one person dead and seven others injured. Witnesses reported that the vehicle arrived at the hotelβs entrance, began emitting smoke, and [β¦]
Five years ago, Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda went to CES to share with the world his βpersonal field of dreamsβ β a plan to build a prototype city on a 175-acre site at the foot of Mount Fuji in Japan, where people would live and work amongst all of Toyotaβs projects, including autonomous vehicle technology, [β¦]
These cars, which use a mix of battery-electric and gas power, emerged as the winner in a year when demand for EVs hit a plateau.
A new group of green-car shoppers flooded the market in 2024, and unlike their wealthy early adopter counterparts, these new consumers are much more practical. The compromise of a hybrid appeals to these shoppers, who tend to be both environmentally conscious and budget-conscious.
This shift toward hybrids was great news for companies like Toyota, which remained steadfast in the hybrid market as others fled to focus on pure EVs. Meanwhile, other companies were left scrambling last year as their expensive plans to phase out gas-powered cars hit a roadblock.
Here's how 2024 became the year of the hybrid car.
1. Shoppers cooled on EVs
In 2024, demand for electric cars pulled back as wealthy early adopters fled the segment.
What automotive executives and industry watchers initially identified as price sensitivity turned out to be a bigger problem for EVs. A different breed of car shoppers started flocking to dealer lots, and they were more drawn to the compromise of a hybrid.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk once blamed the popularity of hybrid cars for the company's poor sales performance in the first half of the year.
Affordability became a key issue for car shoppers last year as higher interest rates kept shoppers on a budget. Hybrids were often considered a more affordable option, but that rule didn't always hold true.
Massive demand for a specific type of hybrid car, the plug-in hybrid, sent prices of these already expensive models soaring.
Greater numbers of average customers were in the market for electric cars last year, and these shoppers weren't as easily swayed as the wealthy early adopters who drove the segment's early growth.
Car companies weren't prepared for this stark drop-off in demand and were stuck slashing prices on their big, expensive EVs while they quickly pivoted to offering more hybrids.
Sales of hybrid cars took off in the first quarter of last year, benefiting companies like Toyota and Ford. Both of these big-name brands have a wide range of hybrid options, including the more expensive plug-in variety.
The Ford F-150 and Toyota RAV4 were the two most popular cars of 2024. Both saw huge sales increases last year due to interest in their hybrid models, executives have said.
"Hybrids are just rockin'," Toyota Motor North America Sales Chief David Christ said in March.
While the first wave of early adopters only lasted a few years for EV sellers, this more practical shopper is here to stay β at least for now.
Studies last year showed plenty of interest in pure electric vehicles, but many average consumers will require hybrids as a stepping stone as issues like charging infrastructure and affordability continue to exist.
While companies remain steadfast in their commitment to all-electric futures, several are making hybrids a bigger part of that transition.
