Thousands of residents in eastern Australia were ordered to evacuate, as Tropical Cyclone Alfred's heavy rains and powerful winds blast two states ahead of it's expected landfall near Brisbane, the country's third-largest city.

The big picture: It's already caused widespread power outages and triggered storm surge along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coasts. Those who haven't evacuated were urged to stay inside ahead of its expected hit as a Category 2 storm, per the Bureau of Meteorology.

• Airports, schools and businesses were closed, as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned that heavy to locally intense rainfall would bring heavy flooding ahead of it's expected landfall around lunchtime Saturday local time (Friday morning ET).
• Cyclone Alfred is the equivalent of a strong tropical storm in the U.S., but its slow rate of speed and unusual landfall location make it an especially heightened threat.

Threat level: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a Friday briefing that rainfall and wind impacts were expected to continue increasing.

• "This is a serious weather event, with heavy rain, destructive winds and major flooding expected," Albanese said.
• Queensland Premier David Crisafulli at a briefing called Cyclone Alfred an "extremely rare event," with the last such storm hitting state capital Brisbane in 1974.
• "Overnight we saw it packed a punch," he said, after some 82,000 properties on Queensland's Gold Coast and northern NSW lost power.

Between the lines: Tropical cyclones aren't usually so intense this far south and they don't usually make landfall in this region.

• Research suggests tropical cyclones are intensifying more quickly, with stronger wind speeds and heavier rainfall and they may "retain their strength for longer, and move more slowly" across areas in "our rapidly changing climate," per the Australian nonprofit the Climate Council.
• Cyclone Alfred was primarily influenced by human-driven climate change, which intensified the meteorological conditions that led to the event, according to new analysis by ClimaMeter, which provides a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate.

What they're saying: "Cyclone Alfred is a striking example of how human-driven climate change is altering the intensity and behavior of tropical cyclones in Australia," said Stavros Dafis, a researcher at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece, who's involved in the ClimaMeter project, in an emailed statement.

• "The combination of higher sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture is fueling heavier rainfall and stronger winds," he added.
• "Our analysis of historical cyclone records suggests that storms like Alfred are becoming more intense and producing more extreme precipitation, raising the risk of catastrophic flooding and coastal erosion."

In photos: Cyclone Alfred bears down on Australia's east coast

Go deeper: Extreme precipitation risks currently underestimated

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional context.

The layoffs that hit about 800 NOAA employees last week will hamstring the agency's fleet of hurricane research aircraft, experts warn.

Threat level: NOAA's aircraft have specialized equipment that the Air Force's Hurricane Hunters lack. Their flights during hurricane season are aimed at feeding data into computer models to improve forecast accuracy.

• The now-thinly staffed team of flight directors, engineers, scientists and mechanics means NOAA will struggle to maintain a 24-hour-a-day tempo of flying its modified Gulfstream jet and aging WP-3 research aircraft, said Josh Ripp, who was laid off as a flight engineer since he was a probationary employee.
• Ripp said the missing flights will translate into less accurate forecasts and greater risk for coastal residents who are used to having at least two to three days' warning of a hurricane's predicted landfall location.
• He told Axios in an interview that the agency is now either short one person or is at just the level of personnel needed to staff 24/7 flight operations, which has been the desired tempo during past seasons.

However, that assumes no one gets sick or has a family emergency and cannot crew a flight. NOAA, he said, is now "playing the odds that everyone there is going to be fine all season."

Zoom in: Two others associated with NOAA's hurricane research program confirmed the challenges the agency faces after the layoffs hit its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations in Lakeland, Fla.

• According to Andrew Hazelton, who was laid off from working on hurricane forecast models at the National Hurricane Center, the cuts may compromise forecast accuracy and ultimately cost lives.
• He said NOAA uses the information from the flights in two ways. One is to gauge the intensity and movement of a storm, since such data is immediately relayed to the Hurricane Center.
• The other is to use the specialized equipment — such as powerful, tail-mounted-Doppler radar — to gather data that's fed into hurricane forecast models to better anticipate a storm's movement and shifts in intensity.

Consistent NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane reconnaissance has helped lead to vast improvements in hurricane track forecasts in particular, with new gains made in intensity projections in recent years.

Between the lines: NOAA only has a minimum capacity of flight directors, positions that require years of training, according to one source familiar with staffing issues who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution if they are rehired.

• It missed out on gaining three who were in the hiring process when the Trump administration instituted a government-wide freeze, and then lost two to the layoffs, the source said.
• "This leaves the exact number for staffing four total WP-3 and G-IV crews," the source said. "It leaves no room for anyone to get sick or have a life event that precludes them from being able to fly."
• "It will, of course, also lead to burnout of the remaining flight directors," they said, noting that flight engineers are also at "critically low" levels of personnel.

Hazelton told Axios that NOAA is running the risk that a storm will approach the coast and that the agency won't be able to fly into and around it with its advanced capabilities.

• "I think that's a real risk that could happen if some of these moves aren't reversed," he said.

What they're saying: NOAA wouldn't comment specifically about the Hurricane Hunter staffing issue.

• "As per longstanding practice, we don't discuss internal personnel and management matters," the agency said in a statement to Axios.
• "NOAA remains dedicated to providing timely information, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the statement said. "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Go deeper:

DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

The planet had its third-warmest February on record, following a surprise record-hot January, new data shows.

Why it matters: This is the first month not to be the first or second-hottest on record since June 2023. It may indicate some slight cooling relative to the not fully explained, record-shattering heat of the past two years.

• Global sea ice extent hit a benchmark low, however.

Zoom in: The new data, from Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, shows the planet had a far cooler February compared to January, with the U.S. and Canada standing out as the most unusually cold regions.

• February had a global average surface temperature that was 1.59°C (2.86°F) above the preindustrial average.
• This made it the 19th month out of the past 20 to exceed 1.5°C above the preindustrial level.

The 1.5°C threshold is an aspirational temperature target under the Paris Climate Agreement.

• Studies have shown that should the climate warm beyond it, which is almost certain at this point, the odds of potentially disastrous climate change effects become more likely.

The intrigue: The persistent record heat which began in 2023 and may only now be letting up slightly, hasn't been fully explained by known factors in addition to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

• The other factors that may have contributed extra warming range from changes in marine shipping fuels to El Niño and La Niña and shifts in maritime cloud cover.
• Climate scientists are still studying the record warmth of the past two-plus years, with some buying into the possibility that global warming may have accelerated, at least in the short term.

Zoom out: The Copernicus report is based on reanalysis data, specifically the ERA5 data set.

• Reanalysis involves taking billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world to accurately estimate in near real-time global weather and climate conditions.
• Global sea ice extent, which combines the sea ice extents of the Arctic and Antarctic, set a new minimum for the month.

In the Arctic, where sea ice is nearing its seasonal maximum, the ice extent was its lowest on record for the third month in a row.

• Antarctic sea ice may have hit its lowest seasonal minimum extent on record, but that won't fully be known for another month, Copernicus stated.

Yes, but: February's dip in temperatures could be temporary, with more records resuming in coming months.

What they're saying: "The current record low global sea ice extent revealed by the Copernicus analysis is of serious concern as it reflects major changes in both the Arctic and Antarctic," said Simon Josey of the UK's National Oceanography Center, in a statement.

Google's Cloud division is taking a major step toward making operational recent gains in AI weather forecast models and marketing them for the energy industry, the company tells Axios exclusively.

Why it matters: This is a prominent example of a tech company that invested in developing AI models to make the transition from research to applications.

• AI weather models are in their infancy but have demonstrated remarkable accuracy. Those advances have come as certain extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent due to human-caused global warming.

Driving the news: Google Cloud is marketing two AI forecast models to its enterprise cloud customers.

• Both were developed by Google DeepMind, and used historical weather data to make predictions about future conditions out to 10 to 15 days in advance.
• One model, previously known as GenCast, bested some of the world's most accurate modeling systems.
• It generates probabilistic projections to allow companies to plan for high impact, low probability scenarios as well as the most likely forecast outcomes.

The big picture: The tech industry has largely led the charge on AI modeling given its expertise working with large datasets and access to significant computer resources.

• Google, Microsoft and Nvidia have each pursued the development of AI weather models despite none of them being a strictly weather and climate company.
• However, Google is now out in front when it comes to bringing its models to market.

The intrigue: Google Cloud is bringing two models, branded as "WeatherNext," to its Cloud enterprise customers to try to help them plan for extreme weather.

• The energy industry is a key customer given companies' needs to plan for changing weather conditions, Pete Battaglia, director of research for sustainability at Google DeepMind, told Axios in an interview.
• Energy companies, Google hopes, will find the new tools useful for everything from planning for supply and demand swings to anticipating the need to tap into battery storage resources.
• Google also hopes it can lead them to make decisions on where to build renewable energy infrastructure.

Google's Cloud division also sees future demand for its new weather models coming from the logistics and retail sectors, as companies seek to optimize shipping routes and stores try to stock their shelves with weather-appropriate gear.

Zoom out: Google made its announcement in the run-up to the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, which features top oil and gas CEOs and representatives of the renewables sector as well as utilities.

• The announcement also comes as NOAA, the nation's top weather and climate agency goes through rounds of cuts and an uncertain future.
• Most private sector weather providers obtain original weather data for free from NOAA and other global centers, then use it to feed into their proprietary weather models.
• AI weather models work differently, since they are trained on historical weather data and don't involve computationally-intensive physics equations, enabling them to be run far faster and cheaper than traditional models.

NOAA's approach to AI weather modeling is still developing, and Battaglia said he is open to collaboration opportunities between the agency and GoogleDeepMind.

The bottom line: AI weather models are going mainstream, tailored to specific use cases. For now, they are supplementing, rather than replacing, traditional physics-based models.

The Trump administration has informed NOAA that two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.

• It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather data and forecasts across the U.S. and abroad.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

• Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
• The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
• The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

The lease cancellation was first reported by The Verge. The National Weather Service didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.

The other side: A senior White House official told Axios on Tuesday that for NOAA, the administration is "simply reevaluating the lease terms, not closing any building, which any good steward of money would do."

• The official stressed that no formal lease-cancellation letter has been sent to NOAA. The official acknowledged that DOGE is canceling leases at other government agencies, but said NOAA is an exception.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

• The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
• In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.
• It would also require new congressional appropriations to get that done.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all the properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

• Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, now has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
• That facility in Norman, Okla. is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

The DOGE website has a section on canceled or modified government real estate properties. It shows several NOAA facilities, though not the exact building in College Park as of Monday.

• In addition to the National Weather Service-related properties, numerous buildings on the so-called "wet side" of NOAA are on the list the agency received, including the National Marine Fisheries Service.

What they're saying: Andrew Rosenberg, a former NOAA official on the agency's fisheries side, has seen the cancellation list. He likened the College Park situation to cutting the government via a "chainsaw" approach rather than more fully considered cuts.

• Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Axios he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland.
• "I am worried," he told Axios after speaking at a rally Monday outside NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Md.
• "We know they're looking through GSA," he said of DOGE. "We should be concerned and worry about all these things, which is why the sooner we shut down the efforts to illegally get rid of federal employees the better."

Van Hollen said his staff will look into the College Park facility in particular. He already has sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking answers following the NOAA cuts of probationary employees last week.

• His office put the total of those layoffs to 650 out of NOAA's approximately 12,000-person workforce.

What's next: NOAA, like other government agencies, has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

Go deeper:

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

Editor's note: This story is updated with comments from the White House.

The cuts of about 800 probationary employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sliced deep into the agency tasked with a range of safety missions.

Why it matters: The cuts spared "only some" specialists at its National Weather Service, according to a congressional aide speaking on condition of anonymity.

• Layoffs at NOAA, a top weather and climate agency, come as climate change causes more intense and frequent weather and climate extremes.

The big picture: By Thursday night, some Weather Service and NOAA offices were already cutting back on their services.

• A bulletin from NWS headquarters announced that staffing shortages would prevent the twice-daily weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska. These provide information on upper air conditions to fine-tune computer models that help predict the weather across the U.S.
• The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory announced its public communications would be on "indefinite hiatus" due to staffing shortages.

Among the deepest of NOAA's cuts was to the Office of Space Commerce. It licenses commercial satellites and issues warnings to satellites to prevent them from getting too close to one another in orbit, among other national security-related tasks.

• Multiple layoffs hit the NWS' Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for keeping the agency's computer models operating.

Zoom in: The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters; NOAA's satellites division; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J.; and divisions on the oceans side of the agency.

• GFDL and the research office at NOAA both do cutting-edge climate science work, including developing computer models to project global warming.
• Sources at NOAA who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs. A spokesperson for the NWS declined to comment on personnel matters but told Axios: "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."
• "NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the spokesperson said.

As of Friday, NOAA's travel cards had been cut, halting agency travel, and purchase cards were reduced to $1 except for about a dozen. There were also reports of leases for office space being canceled.

Friction point: The cuts infuriated the tight-knit weather and climate community, which depends on NOAA for raw data, forecast guidance, computer modeling, hurricane research flights and watch and warning information.

• Many meteorologists took to social media to vent their frustrations. Some warned the cuts could cost lives as severe weather season approaches.
• "The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service, is profoundly alarming," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a statement posted to X.
• "The NWS is a critical public utility, and it would be extremely difficult to rebuild if torn down. This is not, in short, an acceptable setting in which to 'move fast and break things,'" he said.

Threat level: Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who was laid off from his role in NOAA Communications, told Axios that the cuts to NWS in particular will be harmful.

• "We will be less prepared for the next disaster and the disaster after that," Di Liberto said. "We're asking an already short-staffed agency to deal with increasing extremes with less people. Burnout will be real."
• About 300 members of the NWS may have been affected, one source said, about 7% of the service. Even before the cuts, the NWS in particular was short-staffed.
• As of February, NOAA had about 12,000 full-time employees, according to its website.

What they're saying: Lawmakers denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy.
• "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.

Zoom out: The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

• The layoffs have mainly hit employees with less than two years of service.
• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster its headcount and add more computing power.

What we're watching: How the cuts — and potentially deeper staff reductions to come — affect the accuracy and timeliness of NOAA's extreme weather warnings as well as its climate products.

The Commerce Department has laid off hundreds of NOAA employees, many with specialized skills who work at one of the world's top climate science and weather forecasting agencies.

Why it matters: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is responsible for providing weather watches and warnings, monitoring and studying Earth's climate, as well as operating weather satellites and protecting marine life.

• The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

The big picture: NOAA's missions require staff to work around the clock to monitor dangerous weather, earthquakes that could cause tsunamis, and other hazards.

• In recent weeks, NOAA's National Weather Service has issued warnings for deadly flooding in Kentucky, heavy snow, frigid temperatures and other hazards across the country.
• While NOAA had pushed for public safety exemptions from the layoffs for NWS meteorologists, not all were granted. A congressional aide reported hearing that "some" at NWS were spared but "not many."

The layoffs follow moves at other agencies across the government and are hitting employees with less than two years of service.

• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.
• Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs.
• The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters, NOAA's satellites division, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., parts of the NWS, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, as well as divisions on the oceans side of the agency.
• Probationary employees and some supervisors in the Office of Space Commerce were let go too.

What they're saying: Lawmakers have denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy. "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is the ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday, "People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information."

Even before the layoffs, the NWS in particular was short-staffed. It isn't yet clear precisely how many forecasters and supervisors have been impacted by the cuts.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster staffing and add more computing power to improve its weather forecast models.

• In the days leading up to the NOAA cuts, weather broadcasters and other meteorologists spoke out in favor of the agency on social media, noting its crucial role in providing accurate weather data and warnings.

Zoom out: The NOAA layoffs come amid thousands of layoffs at other climate-related agencies, including the EPA, Energy Department, Department of Agriculture and the Interior Department.

• The Interior Department layoffs include significant cuts to the National Parks Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
• The environmental group Center for Biological Diversity put the cuts at Interior as 4% of the overall department.

The intrigue: The layoffs of probationary employees with less than one to two years of service is depriving the agency of some younger employees just as older individuals have taken the government's "Fork in the Road" buyout offer.

• The downsizing is in line with similar moves across the government.

What's next: Federal agencies, including NOAA, are expected to undergo significant further cuts in the coming months as the Trump administration moves swiftly to reduce the size of the federal government.

• The entity leading the charge on this front has been billionaire Musk's DOGE, which visited NOAA's offices and gained access to some of its IT systems.
• NOAA has reportedly been asked to prepare for shaving off up to one-third of its budget, which could disrupt core functions such as weather forecasting, climate data gathering and research.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional reporting on where specific cutbacks occurred at NOAA and with comments from Rep. Jared Huffman.

Go deeper:

Cuts drain federal government of technical expertise

NOAA told to search grant programs for climate-related terms

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

Spring is getting warmer overall and featuring more unusually hot days in most U.S. cities, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Warmer springs can cause early snowmelt, which can imperil summer water resources and heighten wildfire risks.

• Warmer springs can also worsen allergies, among other effects.

Zoom in: Nonprofit climate research and communications organization Climate Central examined 55 years of U.S. temperature data for 241 cities and found that the meteorological spring season of March through May has warmed by a national average of 2.4°F.

• In an analysis released Wednesday, the group found that 97% of the 241 cities analyzed saw a warming trend for the season.
• Four out of every five cities now see at least one more week of warmer-than-average spring days compared to the 1970s.
• The geography of the warming across the U.S. shows that the fastest rates are in the southern tier, with the Southwest leading the pack at an average spring warming of 3.4°F.

By the numbers: The cities that have warmed the most since 1970 were Reno, Nev., which has seen average seasonal temperatures spike by 6.8°F, followed by El Paso, Texas at 6.4°F and Las Vegas at a seasonal average temperature increase of 6.1°F.

• Tucson, Albany, Ga., Chattanooga, Tenn. and Phoenix round out the fastest-warming list in the analysis.
• While the Southwest is the region seeing the fastest-warming spring, the fall actually outranks spring for the fastest-warming season in much of the Southwest and West.
• And winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., along with Alaska.

Yes, but: One region of the U.S. has seen some cooling during spring.

• It stretches from northern Montana into North and South Dakota as well as a sliver of Minnesota.

The intrigue: As spring temperatures have increased, the average number of days with above-average temperatures also went up in 98% of the locations analyzed.

• Locations in the Southwest, West, Southeast and South had the greatest increase in the average number of warmer-than-average spring days since 1970.
• Tampa, for example, now has an average of 37 more days with hotter-than-normal spring temperatures, Climate Central found.

Between the lines: The spring warming in the U.S. is taking place in tandem with increasing temperatures around the world due to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

The Trump administration moved Sunday to fire some 2,000 U.S. Agency for International Development workers and place most others on administrative leave, according to an email the agency sent to staff.

The big picture: The action that's set to take effect on Sunday just before midnight comes days after a federal judge permitted the administration to move ahead with the mass firings and continue the DOGE-led dismantling of the large-scale operation at what was the world's largest humanitarian aid organization.

Driving the news: "As of 11:59 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 23, 2025, all USAID direct hire personnel, with the exception of designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and/or specially designated programs, will be placed on administrative leave globally," per the email to staff that was obtained by outlets including Axios.

• "Concurrently, USAID is beginning to implement a Reduction-in-Force that will affect approximately 1,600 USAID personnel with duty stations in the United States," added the email that's now posted on USAID's website.

Context: The Trump administration moved earlier this month to place direct hires on administrative leave globally and announced that it would pay for USAID personnel posted overseas to return travel to the U.S. within 30 days.

• Unions representing USAID workers sued the Trump administration, calling the action to dismantle the agency "unconstitutional and illegal."
• However, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols on Friday lifted a temporary restraining order he had issued in the case after finding that "initial assertions of harm were overstated" by the plaintiffs.

Zoom out: Elon Musk has been leading a drive to dismantle USAID amid his DOGE cost-cutting efforts across all federal agencies.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio, USAID's acting administrator, said the administration's goal was to "identify programs that work and continue them and to identify programs that are not aligned with our national interest" and address them.
• In a separate case, a federal judge paused the Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid.
• Representatives for the State Department and White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Agencies, unions tell fed workers: Don't answer Musk's threat email

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Employee buyouts, terminations and uncertainty at multiple federal agencies are sparking warnings about an erosion of scientific and technical expertise at a crucial moment.

Why it matters: No one country now dominates in every scientific field. The U.S. is in a tight competition with China for science and tech leadership as innovation amasses more economic value and geopolitical tensions rise.

• "It doesn't just impact federal employees," said a former National Science Foundation employee. "It will reduce our ability to maintain any leadership in the international landscape."

The big picture: By purging workers as well as enticing people to quit via early retirement, the federal government has cast aside specialists needed to help agencies fulfill their missions.

• Rocket scientists, ecologists, climate scientists, AI experts, chemists and other highly skilled workers have been affected.
• The scientists who remain at agencies are trying to do more with less, while in many cases anxiously awaiting more cuts.

Zoom in: Agencies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are seeing a slew of early retirements plus job cuts that have either been carried out or are likely to come.

• People are "walking away with years of institutional knowledge," one current NOAA scientist said.
• "The door is revolving pretty quickly at NASA right now," one current space agency worker said. "They are losing people with tremendous amounts of experience."

Axios spoke to four current employees, and four who lost their jobs in recent weeks, who requested anonymity out of fear of retribution. They expressed concerns about a brain drain and loss of expertise.

Catch up quick: The National Science Foundation on Feb. 18 cut 168 employees — about 10% of its staff.

• Half were probationary employees, many of whom have Ph.D.s in their fields.
• The other half were contract workers who are highly specialized in their fields and who often work full-time jobs at universities and other institutions.

The intrigue: NOAA is bracing for cuts to its probationary workforce, and is already losing employees to the early retirement offer.

• The top climate and weather agency also operates satellites, manages national fisheries and handles marine species protection.
• NASA appears to have avoided immediate and sweeping cuts to its probationary staff — but a wave of high-profile retirements have cast uncertainty over the flagship Artemis Mission to return to the Moon.
• "Everyone is wondering if the other shoe is going to drop or what they're going to hear next week or never. It's terrible," one NASA employee said, adding that it has already driven people away.
• About 5% of NASA's workforce took the administration's deferred resignation buyout deal, NASA stated. The agency said it plans to cut its probationary workforce based on employee performance.

The other side: Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, President Trump trumpeted his general efforts to cut government.

• "We have escorted the radical-left bureaucrats out of the building and have locked the doors behind them," he said. "We've gotten rid of thousands."
• In an earlier post on Truth Social, he praised Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency: "ELON IS DOING A GREAT JOB, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM GET MORE AGGRESSIVE."
• NASA and NSF didn't respond to questions about concerns of loss of expertise.

Between the lines: Probationary employees have typically been in their roles less than one or two years.

• But that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't worked in the government for longer. The probationary clock can sometimes reset when someone is promoted, transferred between agencies or steps into a new role.

The impact: The consequences of losing scientists, engineers, technicians and educators who conduct research, review grant applications, engage with communities across the country and oversee programs and missions will come in waves, several people said.

• "The immediate loss is by removing all the people we brought in to fill critical gaps in ecological modeling, advanced survey statistics, cloud and AI advancements," the current NOAA scientist said.

The main role of NSF is assessing proposals from scientists and engineers for taxpayer-funded research. Its annual budget is roughly $9 billion.

• "We need people who are incredibly smart with the expertise to determine if research is feasible and if it is moving the needle forward," the former NSF employee said.

What to watch: A secondary impact may be on the pipeline of future STEM talent in the U.S.

• The cuts "remove all desire for new workers to look at the government as a realistic option," the NOAA scientist said.
• It is "chopping off the whole younger layer, which any place needs to survive. These are people who know AI and have grown up with this stuff that these old fogies haven't."
• "To move us forward, we need them."

An Arctic blast tied in part to the polar vortex is driving record frigid air south from the Northern Plains toward the Gulf Coast Wednesday in a cold snap that will last the entire week.

Threat level: This event is setting daily record cold temperatures and is forecast to bring for the coldest temperatures on record for this late in the season.

• It will bring below-zero Fahrenheit wind chills as far south as Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee.
• As of Wednesday morning, more than 100 million people were under "extreme cold warnings" and advisories, from the Canadian border south to New Orleans.

By the numbers: The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting wind chills as cold as minus-35°F to minus-60°F across the northern Plains for multiple days.

• Conditions this cold can cause frostbite to exposed skin in just a few minutes, and hypothermia soon after that.
• The NWS is warning that its forecasters have "High confidence of widespread, record-breaking cold" with the coldest conditions lasting through Friday.
• Temperatures are running at least 40 degrees Fahrenheit below average for this time of year in the Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday.

This cold air, in slightly moderated form, will spill east later this week on the heels of a storm system that is bringing a swath of snow and ice to the Mid-South, Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic.

Zoom in: Here's how some cities will be affected this week on their coldest days, from the NWS:

• Minneapolis: A high of 5°F with a low of minus-13°F on Feb. 19.
• Des Moines: A high of 4°F and a low of minus-6°F on Feb. 19.
• Omaha: A high of 3°F and a low of minus-8°F on Feb. 19.
• Dallas: A high of 27°F and a low of 18°F on Feb. 19.
• Chicago: A high of 15°F and a low of 2°F on Feb. 19.

Bismarck and Minot, N.D. set daily records for their coldest temperatures on Feb. 18, at minus-39°F and minus-33°F, respectively. Parts of Montana saw temperatures plunge into the minus-40s°F on Wednesday morning, while in Texas, Dallas reached a low temperature in the teens.

• In north Texas, wind chills were below zero Fahrenheit on Wednesday morning, including the Dallas metro area.

Between the lines: Cold weather of this magnitude and duration is likely to increase energy demand as well as costs.

• It may also lead to another month in which the U.S. is the world's most unusually cold spot on an unusually hot planet, as it was in January.

The intrigue: The Arctic outbreak is consistent with events that some studies have shown to be more likely due to rapid Arctic climate change.

• It is tied to how multiple weather systems are lined up in the Far North, including a stretched polar vortex that has shifted south somewhat.
• Other factors include a strong area of high pressure over Alaska and parts of the Arctic, forming what is known as a "blocking pattern."
• These features are combining to drive frigid conditions southward, into the Lower 48 states.

A massive, severe storm system that's slamming the U.S. Northeast with heavy snow has this weekend triggered flash flood warnings in West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky, where officials reported at least 11 deaths.

The big picture: The multifaceted storm that began Saturday knocked out power to an estimated half a million customers from Virginia to Mississippi and delayed thousands of flights during the holiday weekend.

• In Atlanta, Georgia, a local fire department official reported a man in his 60s was killed when a tree fell on his home during the storms.

Threat level: President Trump approved an emergency disaster declaration for Kentucky, making funds available in the storm that's impacting towns including Hazard, Ky., which was also affected by 2022's deadly flooding.

• Meanwhile, the storm was bringing powerful and damaging winds to the mid-Atlantic and heavy snow to New England and parts of Ontario and Quebec in Canada.
• Heavy rainfall was expected to continue to bring flash flooding from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday, per the National Weather Service.
• "Severe thunderstorms may bring damaging winds and tornadoes to parts of the Southeast U.S. this weekend," the NWS warned in a forecast discussion.

Zoom in: Mandatory evacuations were announced in Kentucky and Tennessee, where Obion County Mayor Steve Carr declared an emergency Sunday due to flooding.

• Beshear said at a Sunday morning briefing that a mother and her 7-year-old daughter were among those to die in floodwater-related incidents in Kentucky and he noted in evening social media posts that the state was "still facing dangerous conditions across the state."

By the numbers: In Virginia, where river flooding continued to be a concern, utility tracker poweroutage.us estimated more than 206,000 were without electricity on Sunday evening.

• As of Monday afternoon, more than 34,000 were still without power in Virginia.
• In Pennsylvania, where very strong winds of up to 63 mph were observed in parts of the state, more than 73,000 customers were without power as of Monday.
• In Maryland, where a high wind warning was in effect through 10pm Sunday ET, more than 34,000 customers have no power.

Between the lines: Flooding has gotten increasingly severe in an era of extreme weather, research shows.

• Human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, according to multiple studies.

In photos: Storm system's effects on U.S., Canada

Go deeper: Polar vortex-tied cold outbreak pushes into U.S. from the Arctic

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

A weeklong, polar vortex-related Arctic outbreak rivaling any seen so far this winter is slated to bring frigid conditions to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies next week.

Threat level: The Arctic air is likely to send temperatures plunging to at least 30 degrees below average for mid-February across the Midwest and Plains states, with the cold moderating some as it barrels east through late week.

• The National Weather Service is zeroing in on two "surges" of cold, one on Sunday and another Wednesday into Thursday for the Plains states.
• Computer models have been trending colder with this event over time, putting some record minimum temperatures and record low daily highs within reach.
• The East will also get significantly colder than average starting early in the week, the NWS stated in a forecast discussion.

The big picture: Experts told Axios that the cold outbreak is tied to the tropospheric polar vortex, the polar vortex in the stratosphere and other major weather players spanning from the tropical Pacific Ocean to Alaska, all the way to Greenland.

• This event is likely to be colder than the earlier polar vortex cold snaps so far this winter, according to University of Oklahoma meteorologist Jason Furtado.
• The cold will occur at the same time as the Arctic sees unusually mild conditions and a ridge of high pressure and milder-than-average air takes over in Alaska, according to Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric & Environmental Research.
• At the same time, the upper-level polar vortex will dip south, near the U.S.-Canada border.

Zoom out: The vortex is an area of low pressure that is a typical feature of the Northern Hemisphere's winter season, with winds swirling around it counterclockwise. It tends to keep the coldest air bottled up over the Far North.

Yes, but: In this case, multiple factors stand ready to allow Arctic air to pour across the U.S.-Canada border, including a stretched polar vortex, a so-called "blocking pattern" over Greenland and "a spike in Arctic temperatures," Cohen writes.

• These ingredients increase the odds of severe winter weather in the U.S., Europe and Asia, he said.
• Furtado said the blocking pattern is more expansive, existing across the North American Arctic region, directing colder air southward.
• According to him, conditions in the tropical Pacific also are helping to reinforce the arrangement of weather systems across North America now.

Context: Studies suggest human-caused climate change may be making polar vortex shifts more likely, but this is an area of active research.

• It also does not quite match up with the multifaceted event about to take shape.
• Cohen has published research tying rapid, human-induced Arctic warming to a chain of events, including disappearing fall sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas and increased snowfall in Siberia.

Friction point: This area of climate science is hotly contested, though it is generally agreed that rapid Arctic warming is having an effect on the region's winters that can alter weather thousands of miles away.

Elon Musk's budgetary chainsaw is looming over U.S. disaster prediction and response agencies — just as climate change is making certain types of extreme weather events more common and intense.

Why it matters: Cutting the Federal Emergency Management Agency — possibly entirely — and slashing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s budget and mission amid a parade of climate disasters could have disastrous consequences.

Between the lines: NOAA's mission is broad and intricately linked with FEMA and state emergency management agencies.

• NOAA is responsible for flying into hurricanes to measure their strength and improve predictions.
• Its National Weather Service forecasts weather across the U.S. and its territories and collects the majority of ocean and atmospheric observations worldwide on a daily basis.
• The combination of Project 2025's prescription for NOAA, along with news reports of coming, steep staff cuts — so far unsubstantiated — has left the agency's staff demoralized.

The nomination of Neil Jacobs, a meteorologist specializing in computer modeling, to run NOAA has also been met with a mix of relief and anxiety, given that he was in charge during Trump 1.0 and the "Sharpiegate" scandal.

Zoom in: After scrutinizing NOAA, members of the Musk-led DOGE team have reportedly turned their attention to examining FEMA's programs and IT systems.

• On Tuesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that "FEMA should be terminated."
• The disaster management agency, part of the Homeland Security Department, has been in the crosshairs since staff were accused of avoiding giving aid to Republicans in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
• "Where were the concerns for deadly consequences when FEMA directed employees not to help certain people in North Carolina — was that not deadly?" Harrison Fields, principal deputy press secretary at the White House, told Axios in response to concerns over potential cuts to these agencies.
• Erasing the agency would require congressional action. Trump envisions states taking the lead in responding to their own disasters.

"The people voted for major government reform. And that's what people are going to get," Musk said in an Oval Office appearance with Trump on Tuesday.

What they're saying: "Honestly, the next disaster to happen, you know, who are you calling?" Pete Gaynor, FEMA administrator during Trump's first term and currently an advisor to Bright Harbor, told Axios in an interview.

• Gaynor said there is widespread agreement that the agency needs reform in how it helps people recover from disasters, but he added that its preparedness and disaster response functions are in high demand and well-executed.
• "We need a national effort to reform FEMA," Gaynor said. "I don't think anyone is arguing with the president on that, even people at FEMA," he said.
• "But the disassembly, the abolishment of FEMA is not in the national interest."

Reality check: Most states lack the resources to respond on their own to major disasters — including conducting lengthy rebuilding projects.

• Red states could be hit the hardest. Texas, Louisiana and Florida received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, data shows.
• FEMA also funds programs aimed at reducing the risks from disasters and hardening infrastructure. Tens of millions in those grants go to red states annually, with additional money doled out to improve preparedness.

Catch up quick: As Axios scooped last week, DOGE has accessed IT systems at NOAA, one of the world's top weather and climate agencies.

• Project 2025, a roadmap of sorts for staffing the Trump administration and drafting policy, called for breaking up NOAA and assailed it for being part of a "climate change cabal."
• As Axios first reported, the administration has tasked NOAA with searching its existing grants for climate change-related keywords as part of an effort to be in line with Trump's executive orders.

Zoom out: Extreme precipitation events, heat waves and wildfires are all becoming more likely and severe because of a warming climate, forcing these agencies to maintain a grinding tempo.

• It's unclear how potentially reducing staffing at NOAA, or axing FEMA altogether, would improve early warnings, preparedness and response.

The Commerce Department has sent NOAA officials a broad set of keywords to search grants in ways that would cover most climate change-related projects.

Why it matters: NOAA is one of the world's top weather and climate agencies and provides funding to universities and researchers to improve the understanding and prediction of extreme weather and climate change.

• Any potential challenges to NOAA's peer-reviewed grants are "myopic and misguided," said Rick Spinrad, who led NOAA during the Biden administration.

Driving the news: The search is related to President Trump's recent executive orders, some of which were signed on his first day in office.

• It appears to be separate from DEI-related searches of internal NOAA websites conducted by Elon Musk's DOGE staff last week.

Zoom in: The list of keywords, a copy of which was seen by Axios, includes DEI-related language and terms pertaining to a range of Trump's executive orders to date.

• Commerce's interpretation of Trump's orders on environmental agreements and energy covers the terms "climate," "methane," "nitrous oxide," "greenhouse gas," "climate science," "carbon," the "Paris Agreement," and other terminology.

Reality check: It isn't clear what the administration intends to do with information gathered from the keyword searches or whether any funding may stop flowing to grants underway.

• Commerce officials and the White House didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
• Instructions contained with the keywords caution that funding cannot be cut off due to court action that temporarily prevents a broad funding freeze initially instituted by the White House from taking effect.

Yes, but: Steep funding cuts reported to be coming to the National Science Foundation — along with Project 2025's vision for a far smaller NOAA stripped of its climate change-related work and the rapid dismantling of USAID — have caused anxiety to spike throughout the oceans, atmospheric and space sciences communities.

According to a NOAA source who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, each of NOAA's divisions — referred to as line offices — have been tasked with searching their grants and any other outside funding support for the same set of keywords.

• This includes the Office of Atmospheric Research, as well as the National Weather Service, National Ocean Service, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service and other entities.
• Information within the document indicates authorship was at Commerce, which oversees NOAA, including a career staff member and a politically appointed official.

The intrigue: The potential effects of the keyword searches are illustrated by an example of funding directed to NOAA for grants under the Biden climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act.

• That law funded a $575 million program of climate resilience grants, according to Spinrad.
• "If anything, these investments should be increased, not threatened," Spinrad said.
• The applications far outstripped demand, to the tune of billions of dollars, he told Axios.
• "By virtue of the name of the program, every grant undoubtedly includes the word 'climate,'" Spinrad said.

What they're saying: "A grant with the words 'climate' or 'carbon dioxide' in it is most likely tied to improving our ability to predict sea level rise, precipitation and temperature extremes, hurricane patterns, drought intensity, or flood frequency," Spinrad said.

• "These are not esoteric academic exercises but 'real world' applications focused on saving lives, protecting property, and ensuring economic viability."

The bottom line: The executive orders are being interpreted in ways that will provide the administration with a thorough accounting of NOAA's climate-related grants programs.

• How it uses that list remains to be seen.

Go deeper:

DOGE searches for DEI information at U.S. climate, oceans agency

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

DOGE representatives at NOAA are combing through IT databases to find employees associated with DEI initiatives, according to a source familiar at the oceans and atmosphere agency.

Why it matters: How Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency handles NOAA's information resources and workforce is critical for Americans since the agency provides severe weather warnings, researches climate change, protects fisheries and more.

• Employees were told DOGE is looking for "DEI content," the person familiar stated.

Zoom in: Two agency sources who requested anonymity for fear of retribution identified a DOGE employee at NOAA who is in the agency's online personnel directory, with a non-working phone number.

• A request for comment to that person's NOAA email address wasn't immediately returned.
• According to one source, who works for one of NOAA's multiple line offices, employees were emailed late Tuesday night and told to give this person edit access to internal intranet sites.
• Axios viewed a copy of the email that cited instructions from acting Secretary of Commerce Jeremy Pelter and acting NOAA Administrator Nancy Hann.

The intrigue: These sites would include employee resource groups, such as Pride at NOAA and Women at NOAA.

• The information would include their membership, internal newsletters, training documents and personnel management information, they said.
• DOGE has searched for similar content at other federal agencies, and the virtual closure of USAID via DOGE representatives and the State Department has employees across the federal government on edge.
• NOAA's workforce has experienced whiplash in the past 24 hours as its next administrator, Neil Jacobs, was nominated to the post after serving in an acting capacity under Trump 1.0.

At nearly the same time, word came that DOGE representatives had arrived at the agency.

• Yes, but: The content turned over wouldn't encompass the agency's vast climate and extreme weather data or operational weather and climate forecasts.
• Anxiety levels among the workforce there are high in part because the influential Project 2025 report calls for the agency's climate work to end, the National Weather Service to privatize and the agency to be broken up overall.
• Both Jacobs and Commerce Secretary Nominee Howard Lutnick have voiced opposition to that proposal.

What they're saying: Democratic Reps. Jared Huffman and Zoe Lofgren of California blasted Trump and DOGE for bringing the cost-cutting group into NOAA at all.

• "Now they have reached NOAA where they're wreaking havoc on the scientific and regulatory systems that protect American families' safety and jobs," they said in a statement. "Americans rely on NOAA's services, day in and day out."

Go deeper:

Trump nominee disavows Project 2025's plan to break up NOAA

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

Next NOAA chief faces mounting challenges, including AI forecasts

Most U.S. Agency for International Development direct hires will be "placed on administrative leave globally" from 11:59pm this Friday ET, per a statement posted to USAID's site.

Why it matters: The directive pauses most programs at the agency that leads foreign aid programs and means the vast majority of overseas workers will return home within days, per the announcement and an email sent to staff that was seen by Axios.

• The action that impacts most staff based in Washington, D.C., as well as globally, comes days after Elon Musk said President Trump had agreed to shut down USAID.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Monday new leadership and a potential restructuring of the agency.

State of play: Exceptions to the order on direct hires include "designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and specially designated programs," per the statement and the email sent to staff.

• Essential personnel are expected to continue working and will be informed by agency leadership by 3pm Thursday.
• This forces hundreds of field staff, often with families, to pack up their belongings for themselves, and ship out unusually quickly.
• Most contractors will also see their contracts terminated, with agency officials considering "case-by-case exceptions and return travel extensions based on personal or family hardship, mobility or safety concerns, or other reasons," the statement said.
• The agency and the State Department are preparing a plan for USAID personnel currently posted overseas that would arrange and pay for return travel to the U.S. within 30 days, according to the statement.

Zoom in: The USAID website's sections were missing as of Tuesday night, with only the announcement visible on the site. Agency PDFs that had been posted online returned the message: "The source you are trying to access is temporarily unavailable."

• The USAID YouTube channel and Instagram account were both unavailable Tuesday night, while on Musk's X platform it appeared the agency's account had been deleted.
• The Facebook page was still active early Wednesday. The last update posted Friday said U.S. foreign policy plays "a vital role in fostering economic growth and stability in the Western Hemisphere" and featured a quote from Rubio's Wall Street Journal op-ed:

Zoom out: Experts have warned that axing USAID may have global health implications and it could destabilize regions where human-caused climate change is hitting particularly hard.

What we're watching: Protest organizers announced late Tuesday plans for a rally against what they called an "unprecedented, illegal, and deadly assault on USAID and American foreign assistance" that would leave "thousands of Americans jobless" and vulnerable communities worldwide without access to life-saving and essential aid.

• Democratic lawmakers including Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) will be among those addressing the rally at Upper Senate Park in D.C. that's due to begin 11:30am Wednesday, per a post from organizers.
• Several former top USAID officials will attend the rally, per an email from organizers late Tuesday. These will include Chris Milligan, former USAID agency counselor and the "highest ranking career Foreign Service Officer at USAID during the first Trump administration," the email notes.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have written to Rubio to demand answers following reports that representatives from the Department of Government Efficiency, which Musk is spearheading, accessed USAID's D.C. headquarters, American citizens' data and classified spaces.

• The lawmakers raised concern that two security officials were placed on administrative leave after denying DOGE reps access to internal systems.

What they're saying: Musk during an X Spaces discussion that began late Sunday called USAID "incredibly politically partisan" and said they had to "get rid of the whole thing" because it's "beyond repair."

• Representatives for the Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

More from Axios...

• Scoop: Senate Dems plot USAID revenge on Trump
• Where USAID funds are disbursed around the world
• Congressional Democrats denied entry to USAID building

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The planet just had its hottest January on record by a considerable margin, in a surprise finding (seriously) to climate scientists.

Why it matters: A La Niña event is ongoing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which would typically be expected to cool the globe slightly. Yet that doesn't appear to be the case — at least not yet.

Zoom in: That the opposite is occurring suggests either a fluke or — combined with the record hot conditions in 2023 and again last year — something more mysterious.

• Climate scientists are still investigating multiple factors that may be causing the climate to warm at a faster rate than in other recent years, from changes in marine shipping fuels to the massive eruption of an undersea volcano.
• So far, there's been no way to explain the 2023 and 2024 records, but the expectation is that this year will be a top 5 hottest year — just not first place.

Yes, but: February appears poised for unusually cold temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere, which should lower global temperatures somewhat, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, writing on Substack.

What they're saying: "An unexpected record to start things off may presage higher temperatures this year than many of us thought," Hausfather wrote.

The axing of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which Elon Musk has vowed to "kill" with President Trump's support, could destabilize regions where human-caused climate change is hitting particularly hard.

Why it matters: By ending humanitarian assistance and proactive climate resilience and adaptation programs, the U.S. military could get pulled into responding to more future crises.

• Experts tell Axios that axing the agency completely, or even significantly downsizing it, would have security implications when it comes to climate change.

Catch up fast: USAID, an independent, operational agency now potentially moving under the State Department, conducts a variety of projects in climate-vulnerable locations such as Africa, Central America and parts of Asia.

• These include programs meant to help boost the resilience of agricultural production to extreme weather events and make infrastructure better able to withstand such events.

Zoom in: According to archived versions of USAID's websites, the agency helps countries cut their emissions, conserve carbon-rich tropical rainforests and rely more on renewable energy sources.

• "Climate change affects nearly everything we do at USAID," its climate page stated as of Jan. 17, according to the Internet Wayback Machine.
• "As such, the Agency mainstreams climate change considerations across much of our development and humanitarian assistance work."

What they're saying: Curtailing USAID is "going to add substantially to the instability in these volatile regions, because vulnerable populations will be doing without," Sherri Goodman, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center and board chair at the Council on Strategic Risks, told Axios.

• "Instability morphs, as we've seen in certain regions where insufficient governance, you don't have access to the basics, and there's a vacuum created and that also allows for other malign actors to come in," she said.
• She said it's a choice between paying "a little bit now" to help make regions "more resilient to food and drought shocks, or pay more later by having to send American sons and daughters into conflict areas."

A pullback in foreign aid could also benefit China, which may step into the void to offer its aid and earn more favor in Africa and elsewhere, Goodman and others said.

• "Trump's decision to shut down USAID has frozen critical work to deliver vital assistance around the globe, and put China in the driver's seat," Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tweeted.

Between the lines: The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies view climate change as a national security threat, in part because it has the potential to force military assets to respond to more humanitarian emergencies.

• Human-caused global warming could also result in more conflicts, including skirmishes over natural resources such as water.
• Some studies have already tied climate change to certain deadly conflicts, including the civil war in Syria.
• By being proactive with aid and on-the-ground programs, USAID provides the U.S. with a way to head off future crises before they get to that point.

For example, USAID, along with other agencies, operate a famine early-warning system to predict them before they occur, and direct aid to where it is needed most.

• The agencies also distribute food aid from U.S. farmers to those who need it most, which can cut down on migration that could destabilize countries or send waves of immigrants to the U.S.

What's next: It's currently unclear what USAID's fate will be given Musk's intense focus on it in recent days and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that he is now the acting USAID administrator.

• Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) is placing a "blanket hold" on Trump's State Department nominees in response to USAID actions, the WSJ reports.

Go deeper:

What to know about USAID, the federal agency Musk vowed to kill

Where USAID funds are disbursed around the world

A novel new report combining several strands of research finds that human-driven climate change could result in $1.47 trillion in net property value losses from rising insurance costs and shifting consumer demand.

Why it matters: Insurance costs are increasing faster than mortgage payments. That's squeezing homeowners and leading to climate change-driven migration away from high-risk areas in the Sun Belt and the West.

The report from First Street, a climate risk financial modeling company, identifies the five largest metro areas likely to see the biggest spikes in insurance premiums: Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans and Sacramento.

Zoom in: The report is based on peer-reviewed models of how climate change may affect insurance prices, migration and economic patterns, among other factors.

• The findings are particularly timely given the recent, devastating wildfires in Southern California, which caused an estimated $20 to $30 billion in insured losses and raised the topic of how insurance premiums price wildfire risks.
• According to the new research, climate impacts may disrupt historical migration to Sun Belt states as risks of climate change-worsened extreme weather events continue to grow.
• First Street estimates that unrestricted, risk-based insurance pricing would yield a 29.4% increase in average insurance premiums across the country by 2055.

This would include an 18.4% correction for "current underpricing" and an 11% increase from climate risk increases.

The intrigue: The economic, climate and demographic modeling behind this report predicts that more than 55 million Americans will "voluntarily relocate within the U.S. to areas less vulnerable to climate risks by 2055."

• This would include 5.2 million internal climate migrants in 2025.
• Economic growth has been thought of as a shield of sorts to retain population in areas that suffer from increasingly severe climate change-related disruptions.

In its analysis, First Street warns that may not hold up through 2055, with some metropolitan areas crossing "tipping points" in which they begin to see net declines in population.

• Already, researchers found that fast-growing cities in the South, Southeast and West have pockets of higher climate risks where homes are gaining value more slowly than similar homes in less risky areas.
• There may be winners, however, with northern, currently less-populated areas from Montana to Wisconsin — and in parts of the East — taking in more people because of the region's greater climate resilience.

Between the lines: First Street's report itself hasn't been peer-reviewed, and there are important caveats and uncertainties associated with the work, since it combines results from multiple models and peer-reviewed studies.

• Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications for First Street and a demographer by training, laid out to Axios via email the new research's usefulness as well as its limitations.
• He said the models don't account for climate adaptation measures such as stricter building codes and sea walls to shield coastal areas from storm surge flooding.
• They also don't include inflation, which could miss non-climate-related housing market appreciation, along with other market forces that could also run counter to climate-risk-related losses in value.

The bottom line: These results are best used to identify locations that are most at risk for climate change-related increasing insurance costs, property devaluation and population change, Porter said.