• Nvidia releases earnings quarterly.
• On calls with investors, CEO Jensen Huang answers questions about the underlying trends impacting AI.
• The company's latest earnings call was dominated by its next-gen Blackwell GPU and profit margins.

Nvidia, the company behind the GPUs that enable AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Grok, releases its earnings quarterly.

Typically, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress walks investors through the quarterly results.

Then, co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang answers questions on the calls, offering insights into the underlying trends of artificial intelligence, data centers, and gaming.

The calls usually cover topics like Nvidia's stock price moves the revenue of Nvidia's GPU chips, which are transitioning to the next-generation Blackwell architecture.

Here's a breakdown of Nvidia's recent earnings.

Nvidia's Q4 earnings 2025

During Nvidia's Q4 earnings call, the chipmaker reported a surge in business, reporting year-over-year revenue growth of 78% at $39.33 billion for the quarter, beating estimates of $38.25 billion.

While Nvidia beat analyst's revenue and profit forecasts and raised its forward-looking guidance, that wasn't enough to meet Wall Street's sky-high expectations.

The potential impact of DeepSeek—a lower-cost AI model from a Chinese startup—on Nvidia's future chip demand was top of mind for investors. Nvidia said DeepSeek was driving an increase in demand for its inferencing solutions.

One concern for investors was the company's profit margins, which were slightly weaker than expected due to its ramp in production of its Blackwell GPUs. Nvidia said it did not expect its profit margins to recover until the second half of the year.

There are also concerns that Nvidia's growth is slowing and top cloud customers could be nearing a peak in their capital expenditures for AI chips. Nvidia's stock price sold off following the earnings results.

Fiscal Q4 ended on January 30, and Nvidia's earnings call took place on February 26.

Nvidia's Q3 earnings 2025

The chipmaker delivered another strong quarter, according to Nvidia's Q3 earnings call, where the company declared "the age of AI is in full steam" as sales of its popular semiconductor chips rose.

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $35.08 billion — a 94% year-over-year increase — beating the consensus analyst estimate of $33.25 billion.

Investors focused on commentary about the company's rollout of its Blackwell chips, which were expected to meaningfully pick-up in the fourth quarter, as well as the potential impact of Trump's planned tariffs.

"Whatever the new administration decides, we will, of course, support the administration" and "fully" comply with any new regulations, Huang said.

Shares of Nvidia sold-off slightly following the results.

Fiscal Q3 ended on October 31, 2024, and Nvidia held its earnings call on November 20.

Nvidia's Q2 earnings 2025

As reported during Nvidia's Q2 earnings call, the chipmaker notched $30.04 billion in revenue for the past quarter, outpacing consensus estimates of $28.86 billion. However, it was a slimmer revenue beat than recent quarters.

Shares of Nvidia declined slightly after the earnings release, but eventually recovered its losses.

Analysts were disappointed that Nvidia's guidance on its upcoming Blackwell chips failed to meet the most lofty expectations on Wall Street.

But Huang assured investors that demand for its Blackwell GPUs was "incredible."

Fiscal Q2 ended on July 31, 2024, and Nvidia's earnings call was on August 28.

Nvidia earnings history

In fiscal Q1 of 2025, Nvidia announced a massive earnings beat, an increase to its dividend, and a 10-for-1 stock split.

The company reported a 262% surge in year-over-year revenues at $26.04 billion, driven by the continued success of its AI-enabled GPU chips, mainly the H100.

The company also reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.12, beating analyst estimates of $5.59.

"We are poised for our next wave of growth. The Blackwell platform is in full production and forms the foundation for trillion-parameter-scale generative AI," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the time.

Nvidia currently plays a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share.

• Los Angeles wildfires have burned 40,000 acres, killing 24 and destroying 12,000 structures.
• Goldman Sachs estimates the fires as one of the 20 costliest US natural disasters.
• The firm took stock of the impact the fires will have on US GDP and the labor market.

The devastating wildfires across Los Angeles are sparking concerns about the potential impact on the broader economy.

Early estimates of the total damage rank the wildfire as one of the 20 costliest natural disasters as a share of GDP in US history, according to Goldman Sachs.

Insured losses are expected to reach as high as $30 billion, and AccuWeather estimates the total economic losses from the fire could be as high as $275 billion.

Goldman Sachs took stock of the impact the fires are expected to have on broad readings of the US economy.

The bank estimates that first-quarter GDP growth will decline by 0.2 percentage points, which excludes offsetting effects from a rapid rebuild of communities, which has typically followed past wildfires.

For the January employment report, Goldman Sachs estimates "a modest drag" of 15,000 to 25,000 jobs due to the wildfires because "only about 0.5% of California's population is currently under evacuation order or warning."

For weekly unemployment insurance claims, the bank said it doesn't see a huge uptick driven by the wildfires.

"Timely alternative data have not shown a noticeable pickup in online searches for unemployment benefits since the start of the first," economists at Goldman Sachs said. "As a result, we expect another low initial claims reading on Thursday."

A potential rise in inflation has been a main market concern in recent months, and insurance represents a component of inflation reports.

But Goldman Sachs doesn't expect higher insurance costs driven by the wildfires to impact inflation meaningfully.

"Our insurance equity analysts expect limited spillover to prices outside of California and because the weight of homeowners' insurance in the PCE price index is just 0.1%," Goldman Sachs explained.

Additionally, Jeffrey Mezger, the CEO of homebuilder KB Home, said the resulting rebuild efforts in Los Angeles should not lead to an uptick in inflation related to labor and materials.

"The population is big and the capacity is there to handle a lot. So I don't expect a lot of labor or material pinch," Mezger said in his company's earnings call on Monday.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that with the Eaton and Palisades fires at about 33% and 14% containment as of Monday evening, there remains considerable uncertainty about the ultimate property damages, including insured and uninsured losses.

• US home sales just ended a 39-month year-over-year decline, signaling the end of the bear market, NDR said.
• Affordability issues, driven by high mortgage rates, drove the 3-year decline in home sales activity.
• Investors could take advantage of the setup by buying the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF, NDR said.

The bear market in US home sales is finally over, according to a recent note from Ned Davis Research.

The firm highlighted that total single-family home sales finally turned positive year-over-year after 39 months of consecutive declines.

The 39-month decline in home sales was only outdone by the 43-month decline during the housing bubble from 2005 through 2009.

"But the recent affordability-driven pandemic bear could not be more different than the credit-driven housing bubble bear," Pat Tschosik, a strategist at Ned Davis Research, said.

The main difference between the two notable declines in home sales is affordability.

Whereas the affordability index rose 53 points from 2005 through 2009, it plunged 39 points from 2021 through 2024, driven by high mortgage rates and ever-rising home prices.

"Homeowners, locked into low rates and unwilling to move, added to low supply and higher prices," Tschosik said.

Additionally, the stocks of homebuilders outperformed over the past three years, compared to them underperforming during the 2005 through 2009 stretch.

The recent rebound in home sales activity suggests to Tschosik that the housing market should thaw in 2025, enabling a rebound in durable and home improvement spending.

For investors, that means the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF could be a worthy addition to portfolios for next year. The ticker symbol is "ITB."

"We are watching ITB for an upgrade. If inflation fears are overblown, the recent ITB correction could be a great buying opportunity," Tschosik said.

The ETF has declined by more than 15% since fears of a rebound in inflation gripped the market in late November.

The top holdings within the Home Construction ETF include home builders D.R. Horton, Lennar Corp, NVR, and Pulte Group, as well as home-improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe's.

• Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, says a US recession in 2025 is unlikely.
• The economy grew faster than expected in 2024, driven by strong consumer spending.
• Key risks for 2025 include tariffs, Nvidia earnings, and an inflation rebound driving rates higher.

Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo, said in a note on Monday that the probability of a US recession materializing in 2025 is 0%.

He released his top 12 risks to watch for global markets in 2025, and a significant economic downturn wasn't one of them.

2024 delivered yet another year of strong economic gains, building on the gains realized in 2023. US GDP is on track to grow by nearly 3% in 2024, and the economy has added about 2 million jobs.

Overall, most economists were taken by surprise. Many expected a slowdown in the economy heading into 2024. Instead, it accelerated.

"The US economy grew much faster than expected this year, supported by solid growth in consumer spending," Jan Hatzius, the top economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note over the weekend.

So with no recession on the horizon, what should investors be worried about?

A lot of things, according to Sløk.

At the top of his list are tariffs, which he puts at a 90% probability of being implemented by the incoming Trump administration.

Trump threatened tariffs countless times during his campaign, and he ramped up those threats after winning the election in November, even lobbing them at two of the US's closest allies, Canada and Mexico.

Another top risk for the stock market next year is Nvidia reporting earnings that disappoint investors' "inflated expectations," Sløk said, ascribing a 90% probability of that occurring.

Such an earnings miss would be a big deal for markets, which count Nvidia as the second-largest company in the world by market cap. Investors got a small taste of what that could look like after Nvidia reported third-quarter results in late November.

While the AI-chip company beat earnings estimates, its guidance failed to meet Wall Street's loftiest expectations, resulting in a 10% sell-off in the company's stock price over the next week.

Upside risks Sløk has on his radar are a further acceleration in the US economy, the unleashing of bullish animal spirits among investors, and a boom in mergers and IPO activity. Such scenarios, he said, have a 75% to 85% chance of occurring.

But perhaps the biggest downside risk to the stock market in 2025 is that a rebound in inflation will spark the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. That would shock investors, as the market is pricing two interest-rate cuts in 2025.

Sløk assigned a 40% probability to a scenario in which "US inflation accelerates in Q1, driven higher by a strong economy, tariffs, restrictions on immigration, and seasonal factors."

He offered the same probability to the knock-on effects of that scenario, the Fed raising interest rates and the 10-year US Treasury yield jumping above 5% before the middle of the year.

Whether the economy will be resilient in 2025 remains to be seen, but investors can monitor Sløk's list of risks to gauge where the market might be headed next year.

• South Korea's President Yoon faces likely impeachment after a "botched coup" attempt, TS Lombard said.
• The firm predicts a new election could boost South Korea's economy and lead to friendlier relations with China.
• A Democratic People's Party win may also increase fiscal spending and improve GDP growth, TS Lombard said.

A knock-on effect of South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol's "botched coup" attempt earlier this week could be a stronger economy, according to GlobalData TS Lombard.

In a Wednesday note, research analyst Rory Green said the martial law episode that unraveled earlier this week suggests President Yoon will be impeached and replaced soon.

"We think Yoon's position is untenable: impeachment (if not this week then soon) followed by fresh presidential elections is highly likely," Green said

President Yoon is on track to be the least popular president in Korean history, according to data from Gallup, cited by Green.

If Green's prediction proves accurate, the center-left Democratic People's Party (DPP) will likely field a presidential candidate who would win an imminent election.

And that could usher in a new wave of economic growth for South Korea, in part driven by the potential for friendlier relations between South Korea and China.

"A DPP president would increase fiscal expenditure boosting H2/25 activity and likely tilt foreign policy towards closer ties with Beijing and Pyongyang," Green explained.

Green said there is headroom for South Korea's economy to grow from its current GDP rate of an estimated 2.2%, which is below its average post-pandemic growth rate of 2.75%.

"A relatively quick political resolution would enable an emergency budget. More expansive fiscal spending in conjunction with another 50bps of policy rate cuts in H1/25 nudges up our GDP forecast to 2.1%," Green said.

Alternatively, Green said South Korea's economic growth rate would nudge lower if a presidential election is delayed past April.

According to the note, South Korea's parliament needs just nine more votes to secure the president's impeachment, assuming all 192 members of President Yoon's opposition party vote for impeachment.