House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) won a game of brinksmanship with his own party on budget reconciliation. Now he's prepared to do the same with Democrats on government funding, lawmakers and aides tell us.

Why it matters: House Republicans are increasingly confident they can avoid a government shutdown without any Democratic support.

• "I think it demonstrated we can do things on our own," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters on Wednesday.
• Going alone would be unprecedented but not impossible. The current funding bill runs through March 14.

🙏 Johnson will need strong buy-in from the White House that President Trump will back his approach.

• After a White House meeting Wednesday, Johnson said a spending stopgap is "becoming inevitable."

Between the lines: The appropriation process has been complicated by Elon Musk's and DOGE's efforts to cut money that Congress has obligated to departments and agencies.

• That's caused a Democratic uproar and raised the possibility they won't give Republicans the votes they could need to keep the government open.
• But Johnson said Wednesday that Republicans shouldn't expect to get DOGE cuts written into a spending stopgap.
• The speaker told reporters the "most reasonable" thing is to avoid a shutdown by pursuing a "clean" CR.

Zoom in: House and Senate GOP leaders met with their appropriators Wednesday morning to discuss their next steps.

• Republicans are united, for now, on a single point: they will not give in to Democratic demands to block Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
• "The Democrats have had completely unreasonable conditions assigned to this," Johnson said. "They want us to limit the power of the executive branch."
• "That's a no-go," Cole said. "We're not moving."
• "The Democrats need to be working with us on a realistic basis," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios.

The bottom line: Republicans will need some eight Democratic votes in the Senate to break a filibuster and pass a government funding bill.

• In the House, they have always relied on Democratic votes to fund the government.
• House Republicans passing a funding bill without Democratic help is unprecedented but not impossible.

With the help of President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) muscled a budget package through the House — a win he claimed will give him momentum to pass "Trump's full America First agenda — not just parts of it."

Why it matters: Johnson's dream of one big, beautiful bill will live another day. But so will the reality of his razor-thin House GOP majority.

• The extraordinary evening was an early taste of the chaos to come.

Zoom in: Just before 7:30pm ET, lawmakers began filing out of the House chamber after being told votes were done for the evening. Leadership thought they had too many holdouts to risk a vote.

Just 13 minutes later lawmakers were streaming back in — the vote was on.

• "I just got a call from my office, they said 'Come back, the vote is back on,'" exclaimed a befuddled Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.).
• Some lawmakers had already been long gone. Several told Axios they were at dinner. At least one was at a Capitol Hill bar. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said he was "halfway home."
• "I was already in my pajamas," quipped Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wisc.). The whole dynamic was "very odd," said Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Between the lines: Both parties pulled out all the stops to try and ensure their preferred outcome.

• Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) showed up despite giving birth less than a month ago. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) voted despite being sick.
• Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.), who is recovering from a blood clot in his leg and a knee infection contracted from surgery, arrived to vote using a walker.
• Only Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Calif.), 77, who has missed nearly every vote since Jan. 3 as he undergoes cancer treatment, was absent.

Zoom out: Remember, this procedural bill was the easy part.

• Passing the actual bill — which could include deep cuts to Medicaid — will require Republicans of all stripes to subordinate their personal goals for the overall ambitions of the party and their president.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is salivating at the opportunity to put Republicans on the record on their planned cuts, especially on social safety net programs.

What's next: Now Senate GOP Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has to decide whether he wants to accept, or try to amend, the House budget reconciliation package.

• Many of his members, including Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), want to make dramatic changes, including how Congress counts the cost of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

The list of no's is growing for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), and time isn't on his side.

Why it matters: Flipping votes on a budget resolution isn't impossible, but it could force Johnson to delay bringing it to the floor.

• ⏰ That would further undermine the House's effort to get "one big, beautiful bill" over to the Senate by the end of April.
• 💥 Two current public "no" votes, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), say the spending cuts aren't enough.
• 🙉 At least one other Republican is a private "no" vote, Burchett told reporters Monday evening.

Johnson and his leadership team are projecting public confidence they will be able to pass the resolution Tuesday evening.

• "There's a couple of folks who just have lingering questions," Johnson told reporters Monday, "but I think all those questions can be answered and we'll be able to move forward."
• "We'll see," Johnson told reporters when asked if the vote is still on for Tuesday night. "But it'll happen this week."

🚨Johnson says he won't negotiate ahead of a vote, including with moderates who are concerned by Medicaid cuts.

• "Everybody needs to understand that the resolution is merely the starting point for the process," Johnson said Monday, per Politico.

The big picture: Johnson sided with his most conservative lawmakers in building this budget package. Now they're threatening to leave him hanging.

• "If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better," Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) posted on X.

Zoom in: Johnson is trying to fuse together 218 votes with the unusual combination of a huge debt limit increase, deep spending cuts and Trump's wish list on tax cuts.

• Johnson has freaked out his moderates with the depth of the spending cut targets, which will be hard to hit without cuts to Medicaid and nutrition programs.
• That's for naught if conservatives tank the bill first.

Zoom out: Some senior Republicans remained optimistic that the current framework — which will also add up to $4.5 trillion in tax breaks if Congress cuts $2 trillion in spending — will eventually find enough votes for passage.

• "It's going to reduce the debt to GDP ratio," Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters. "It's important to me and important to our president."
• "I don't expect it to change," he said. "I feel like we landed at a really good place."
• "We're going to be fine," Arrington told Axios.

President Trump plans to sign an executive order on Wednesday to eliminate, or dramatically diminish, a handful of federal advisory committees, according to administration officials.

Why it matters: The executive order, which the president plans to sign on Air Force One, will target organizations like the United States Institute of Peace and the Inter-American Foundation.

• The order is similar to his assertion Tuesday night that he has direct authority over boards and commissions like the FDIC, SEC and CFTC.
• The move will mark Trump's latest assault on a federal bureaucracy that he is convinced is hostile to his agenda.
• Like he has with Elon Musk's DOGE effort, Trump will also cite his concerns about the millions of dollars some of the committees cost taxpayers, officials said.

Driving the news: Trump will also require his Cabinet to scrub their departments and submit a list of additional committees and boards for termination within 30 days.

• His goal is to pare back the number of agencies to a statutory minimum, which may be complicated because some of them have been authorized by Congress.
• Where possible, he will fully eliminate agencies and advisory committees.

What we're hearing: Among the groups that Trump will single out for termination or reduction:

• The Presidio Trust, a federal agency that manages large parts of the Presidio in Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) San Francisco district.
• The U.S. African Development Foundation, which invests in African grassroots enterprises.
• The Presidential Management Fellows Program, which is designed to train recent college and graduate school grads for the executive branch.
• The Advisory Committee on Voluntary Foreign Aid, which was founded to "advise the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other U.S. Government agencies on development issues relating to foreign assistance," according to its charter.
• The Health Equity Advisory Committee, which President Biden established in 2024, but Trump officials claim isn't actually meeting.
• Federal Executive Boards, which were created by President Kennedy to help coordinate government activities in different regions across the country. Trump has already killed at least one of them.

Between the lines: The Institute for Peace is being targeted, in part, because officials believe it is a highly partisan organization, with its employees contributing to the Democratic Party.

• And they consider the Inter-American Foundation, which was designed to invest in development projects across Latin America and the Caribbean, as a vehicle to justify Democratic theories about the root causes of migration.

Go deeper: A variety of councils are associated with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, including the Academic Research Council, the Community Bank Advisory Council and the Credit Union Advisory Council.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) plans to use this week's budget votes to force Republicans to choose between defending tax cuts for billionaires or defying President Trump and Elon Musk.

• "It unifies Democrats from one end to the other. It is simple. It is easy to state. And it's true," Schumer told Axios.

Why it matters: After weeks of getting pummeled, Schumer is clearly relishing the prospect of changing the subject and forcing Republicans to play defense.

• Schumer wants to turn the "vote-a-rama" on the Senate GOP's budget bill — expected Thursday or Friday — into a parade of tragic decisions by Trump and Musk — all in service of making the rich even richer.
• Look for amendments on Trump's proposed tax cuts, the president's funding and hiring freezes and Musk's deep cuts to federal agencies.
• You can also expect an amendment blocking the GOP from changing tax rates if they cut funding from Medicare or Medicaid.

Zoom in: None of these Democratic-forced amendments will pass. But Schumer's goal is to make GOP senators own as many of the cuts and freezes as possible, or put them on the wrong side of a president who demands total loyalty.

• Democrats have been on their back feet as Trump and Musk fire federal workers, cut off foreign aid and rewire the country's bureaucracy.
• Democratic lawmakers feel powerless and are "pissed" at Democratic activist groups.
• Schumer and Jeffries huddled last week for a strategy session on how they could pick a couple of issues — such as cuts to Medicare and tax breaks for the wealthy — to re-create the magic of 2018.

🚨Now Schumer has an opening to cast DOGE and the congressional GOP in the harshest possible light.

• That includes programs highlighted by DOGE and those — like Medicaid — targeted by congressional Republicans.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) summoned his caucus for a rare Saturday conference call ahead of a potential "vote-a-rama" next week.

Why it matters: Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) budget package includes some $175 billion in border security spending, presenting a potential political minefield for Democratic senators.

Schumer's meeting lasted less than an hour.

• The New York Democrat told his members to prepare a blitz of amendments to the GOP's budget resolution, according to multiple sources familiar with the call.
• Schumer wants Democrats to remain focused on messaging that Republicans want to cut taxes for the wealthy at the expense of American families, he told members.

Zoom in: Schumer wasn't certain the GOP's budget resolution would come to the senate floor next week, as has been expected.

• If Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) calls Graham's budget package to the floor next week, it would lead to a "vote-a-rama" — in which senators can offer amendments for some 50 hours to score political points.

Between the lines: Schumer has given his members broad leeway on some controversial issues around immigration, like the Laken Riley Act.

• Democratic activists are demanding their elected lawmakers mount a more forceful response to President Trump's dismantling of the federal government.
• But the reality for incumbent Democrats is that they don't have any immediate way to stop Trump, short of appealing to the federal courts.
• Senate Democrats staged an all-night talk fest last week to protest the confirmation of Russ Vought as Office of Budget and Management director. He was confirmed on a party-line vote.

The bottom line: Many lawmakers are deeply frustrated — and even "pissed" — with progressive pressure campaigns demanding they do more to oppose Trump, as Axios reported.

• The budget process will allow Democrats to go on record defending policies that Trump and Republicans plan to cut.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Schumer have been strategizing on how to draw attention to the GOP's proposed tax cuts and their efforts to trim spending from entitlement programs like Medicaid.

Editor's note: This article was updated with new details from the Senate Democratic call.

The new chair of the Federal Trade Commission is putting his commissioners on notice that he thinks President Trump has the right to fire them if he wants to.

Why it matters: Andrew Ferguson, who replaced Lina Khan on Jan. 20, is the first head of an independent agency to embrace a controversial legal theory that could dramatically reshape the federal bureaucracy.

• It will alarm progressive activists and Democratic lawmakers who are concerned that Trump wants to purge independent agencies like the FTC and the National Labor Relations Board.

Driving the news: Ferguson, a former solicitor general for the Commonwealth of Virginia, is filing a motion on Friday to formally change the FTC's legal position.

• He is seizing on a letter sent to Congress this week by the acting solicitor general that the Trump Justice Department will seek to overturn a 90-year old Supreme Court decision known as "Humphrey's Executor."
• In 1935, the court ruled that the president could only dismiss the head of an independent agency "for cause."
• The new Trump approach holds that the heads and other board members can be fired based on the president's "will."

What they're saying: "I agree with every word of the Acting Solicitor General's letter. Humphrey's Executor was wrongly decided, is deeply anti-democratic, and ought to be overruled," Ferguson told Axios in an exclusive statement.

• "I will be making a motion to ask my fellow Commissioners to agree to align the FTC's position on this issue with the President's position," he said.

Zoom out: Legal scholars – and the Supreme Court – are deeply divided on the constitutionality of Humphrey's Executor and which agencies it applies to.

• In 2020, the court ruled the president had the power to fire the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Zoom in: Trump has already moved to fire the acting chair of the NLRB.

• That has led to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to launch an investigation into Trump's authority.

Go deeper: The FTC is beefing up its staff with a string of new hires who are skeptical of Big Tech.

In private meetings with his in-cycle incumbents, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has asked for a small favor: If you're not going to run in 2026, please let me know soonest.

Why it matters: Two Democrats in potentially close races have now honored his request. A third — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) — has yet to make an announcement.

• Schumer craves clarity on the 2026 Senate map, according to people familiar with the matter.
• He also wants time to consider the party's options, allocate resources and develop a comprehensive strategy to eat into the GOP's three-seat majority.

Driving the news: Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) on Thursday morning became the second senator in as many months to announce her retirement, following Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in January.

• Both decisions sent shockwaves throughout Washington.

The intrigue: That leaves Shaheen, 78, as the only open question for many senior Democrats.

• She has publicly questioned her future, and multiple sources tell us she hasn't privately indicated whether she plans to run.
• If Shaheen runs, Democrats like their chances of holding onto the seat.
• Should she retire, New Hampshire will be much more expensive for Democrats, drawing resources away from other competitive races.

Zoom out: In other potentially competitive races, there's not much uncertainty around the Democrats' remaining 2026 incumbents.

• Sens. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) are sending strong signals they plan to run for reelection.
• While he's not an incumbent, there's great pessimism among senior Democratic sources that former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won't try to return to the Senate in 2026.

Zoom in: Just as Peters' retirement opened the field in Michigan, several Democrats are indicating that they are interested in running in Minnesota, a state Vice President Harris won by 4 percentage points and Sen. Amy Klobuchar took by 16 points.

• Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic 2024 vice presidential candidate, is interested, according to Politico.
• There's also a possibility that former Sen. Al Franken, who was forced to resign during the height of the #metoo movement, could mount a comeback. He praised Smith on Thursday but didn't give any indication that he would run.
• Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) are also potential candidates, Axios reported earlier Thursday.

The bottom line: Retirements from proven winners are never welcomed, but they sting less when they are made early in an odd number year.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) met Wednesday to try to re-create the magic Democrats found in 2017, when they turned President Trump's original tax cuts into political poison for the GOP majorities.

Why it matters: Grassroots Democrats are demanding to see real action immediately. But top Democrats are eyeing a different date: November 2026.

• Their goal is to develop a unified message ahead of the midterms and take back at least one chamber of Congress.
• They'll have to temper the expectations of activists who want quicker results, while also keeping them motivated to support Democrats in the coming campaigns.

Zoom in: Democratic leaders firmly think their life in the minority will be shorter if they seize on the right messaging opportunities, not every messaging opportunity.

• They want to avoid responding to Trump's outrages du jour and develop a deeper narrative about what unified Republican control means for working families.

What's next: Democratic leaders are eyeing the 2018 midterms as a blueprint, when they made Trump's tax cuts so unpopular that Republicans barely mentioned it in their campaign messaging.

• Democrats are salivating at the opportunity to message against even deeper tax cuts being paired with broad slashes in federal spending, especially on health care.

The bottom line: Democrats are powerless to stop the GOP's filibuster-proof plans to cut taxes and federal spending. But details of the Republican playbook read like a wishlist for Democratic campaign operatives.

• The (at minimum) $1.5 trillion in spending cuts the GOP is considering, in addition to $4.5 trillion to pay for tax cuts, includes hundreds of billions in reduced Medicaid payments and cuts to food assistance and student loan aid.
• "This is all about clearing the path to cutting taxes for billionaires, and making the American people foot the bill," Schumer said Wednesday from the Senate floor.

Some 20 senators have their bags packed for the Munich Security Conference this weekend, but they are waiting on a final green light from Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) before heading to Andrews Air Force Base.

Why it matters: Thune has threatened to make the Senate work weekends before, but never with one of the year's most cherished CODELs hanging in the balance.

• In an email to senators, Thune warned they may have to stay in town to vote on President Trump's nominations on Friday, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.
• That would delay, and potentially cancel, their participation in the annual security conference, where many senators say that simply showing up is one of their most important messages. The conference runs from Friday to Sunday.
• Allies are eager for insight into how Trump and a Republican Congress will handle everything from the war in Ukraine to redeveloping the Gaza Strip.

The other side: "I'm trying to hold the plane hostage," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) joked to Axios.

• He thinks senators should stay and get more nominations done through Friday.

Zoom out: Senators love their CODELs. They especially love the Munich Security Conference, where they can have weisswurst and sweet mustard for breakfast and helles beer at lunch. Generals and heads of state mill about in the Hotel Bayerischer Hof.

• For Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who typically leads one of the larger delegations, it is an opportunity to take stock of what has worked and what hasn't.
• His message this weekend will be "to assess why deterrence failed and make sure that never happens again, to make sure that aggression is not rewarded in a fashion," Graham told Axios.
• He plans to introduce sanctions against Beijing that snap into effect if China invades Taiwan.

Zoom in: Trump has alarmed allies with his unorthodox approach to foreign policy, real estate diplomacy and land acquisitions — and sometimes all three.

• He has threatened significant tariffs on U.S. allies, offered to buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state, turn Gaza into a "big real estate site" and proposed taking back control of the Panama Canal.
• Senators can expect some awkward questions from foreign leaders on all of the above.

The bottom line: When asked if she's prepared to answer questions on those topics, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said she will "let those speak for themselves."

• "The president obviously has a plan that he's working on, he is visiting with the leaders of many nations," she added. "So I would rather that he take the forefront."
• "I'm infuriated and frustrated by the administration's seeming surrender and betrayal of Ukraine," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) "I imagine that view will find a lot of friends among the Europeans who have committed so much to this fight."

Elon Musk's slash-and-burn approach is giving the White House genuine street cred with House conservatives. But it might not be enough to compensate for the outrage he's provoked among House Democrats.

Why it matters: If Democrats hold the line — and withhold their votes to fund the government — it will be exceedingly difficult for House Speaker Mike Johnson to avoid a government shutdown.

• Musk is flipping the traditional equation, in which Democrats vote to fund the government and Republicans feel compelled to do so under duress.
• While not all Democrats are on board with holding the government hostage to their anti-DOGE demands, many are clearly contemplating it.

Zoom in: For all the outraged Democrats that Johnson might lose because of Musk, he'll be on the hunt for Republican votes to replace them.

• "It helps," said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.). "However, the baseline needs to be intact at $2 trillion," he added, referring to how much spending he wants to cut in the (separate) reconciliation bill.
• "That's just additional," said Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.). "We appreciate it, but that's not enough."
• "We're excited to see it," said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio). However, "you're looking at two different things. What DOGE is working on is mostly stuff that we have to deal with by March 14."

By the numbers: In the last few government funding votes, more Democrats than Republicans have voted to prevent a shutdown.

• In December, Johnson lost 34 House conservatives on funding the government. In September, the number was even higher: 82 House Republicans voted against it.
• In both cases, every House Democrat supported it.

The House GOP says it's ready to go first on reconciliation, warning it won't even consider the Senate GOP's bill on the border, energy and defense.

Why it matters: This escalates the strategic fight between the two chambers over how to get the Trump tax cuts extended past this year — while also adding billions in spending on deportation infrastructure and the military.

• The Senate wants two bills, handling border security, energy and defense first. Tax cuts would come later this year.
• The House wants one big bill, arguing it would be too hard to pass two distinct measures.
• House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) plans to start marking up a House bill on Thursday or Friday, he told reporters on Tuesday.

Zoom in: Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has released text for the first bill. It's scheduled to be marked up at the committee level on Wednesday, putting pressure on the House to move faster.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told his deputies Monday that the House won't put a Senate two-track bill on the floor, Punchbowl first reported.
• Johnson told Politico he plans to meet with Budget Committee Republicans on Tuesday evening.

The GOP's Hill leaders are signaling their eagerness to back up Elon Musk by turning DOGE spending cuts into real legislation.

Why it matters: Musk's slash-and-burn cuts may be undone by the courts. But he's given congressional Republicans a blueprint for what's possible to cut.

• "I think that anything that DOGE does will be factored into what we do up here," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios.
• "We are going to be codifying a lot of these changes," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters Monday, "and what they've uncovered is, frankly, shocking."

Zoom in: DOGE has gone from a meme to a machine in the last three weeks, sparking lawsuits and injunctions.

• Judges have paused Musk's access to Treasury information and blocked more than 2,000 USAID employees from being put on leave.
• More court activity is expected as Musk pounces from one agency to the next in search of DEI initiatives, bureaucratic bloat and other opportunities for spending cuts.

Zoom out: Republicans need to do some serious unifying if they want to pass party-line spending cuts. Ten GOP senators and 34 House members voted in December against the government funding stopgap.

• But DOGE-inspired cuts might help get the House's rowdy Freedom Caucus and senators like Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to vote yes on some bills — as long as specific cuts don't create new GOP "no" votes.

Reality check: Even if the House can pass anything, outside of budget reconciliation, the Senate GOP will need Democratic votes to overcome the 60-vote filibuster for spending bills.

• Democrats are rallying in opposition to President Trump's spending freeze — and are threatening to allow a government shutdown next month.

The bottom line: Musk's appeals to Congress on deep cuts could force Republicans to justify tough cuts to popular programs, and Democrats to defend funding some unpopular ones.

The March 14 government funding deadline is becoming a crucial test of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) toughness in the opposition.

Why it matters: If House GOP leaders settle on a partisan funding package, Schumer is indicating he's willing to stand in the way and plunge into a government shutdown.

• Schumer will need to keep seven Democratic senators from joining Senate Republicans on a filibuster vote, if all Republicans support the package.
• "Senate Democrats will use our votes to help steady the ship for the American people," Schumer said Monday, in a clear warning to Republicans.
• Negotiations are foundering and Republicans haven't made a unified top-line spending offer to Democrats, according to multiple sources.

Zoom out: Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2026 haven't been tested on whether they'll break with their party on a potential government shutdown.

• Some of them have crossed the aisle on hot-button cultural issues, like the Laken Riley Act.
• But Trump's first month in office is making it more difficult for Democrats and Republicans to work together on anything.

The bottom line: A government shutdown vote is a tougher call than a procedural vote on a foreign policy.

• Schumer scored a tactical and strategic victory last month as the Democrats stopped a vote on a pro-Israel GOP bill from coming to the floor. However, it took several emergency meetings to craft the response.
• Now, Democratic leaders are confident a House spending bill that only relies on GOP votes would flop in the chamber, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations.

Senate Republicans are running a hurry-up offense ahead of Super Bowl Sunday that's putting House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on his heels.

Why it matters: The House is unlikely to reach an agreement on taxes and spending cuts before Johnson and President Trump meet in a New Orleans skybox on Sunday, aides and lawmakers conceded today.

• That gives Senate Republicans all weekend — and a dinner Friday at Mar-a-Lago — to make their case for a two-bill approach, while House Republicans still debate how much to cut from the federal budget.
• The latest deadline for Johnson's one-bill plan is "probably closer to Monday," he said this morning.

🚨 "The time to act is now, and Senate Republicans are ready to roll," Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said on X, backing up Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

• Graham released a budget resolution Friday to funnel hundreds of billions into border security, energy and defense.
• "I hope the House will move forward soon, but we cannot allow this moment to pass, and we cannot let President Trump's America First Agenda stall," Graham said on X.
• "This targeted bill on the border, energy, and national security is uniting," Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) posted about the plan. "We're ready to go."

Zoom in: Graham has scheduled committee hearings next week to debate and vote on the resolution, on Wednesday and Thursday.

• Graham argued his bill will provide border funds faster, saying border czar Tom Homan "is running out of the funds necessary" to keep up the Trump team's immigration crackdown.
• The Senate plan offsets the $342 billion in new spending.

Between the lines: Johnson is still claiming he's making progress.

• "It's going very well, I'm very excited about where we are and the fact that we're going to be moving this forward," he said.
• Graham's committee timeline will give Johnson and House Republicans until midweek to pass their own resolution.

The bottom line: Even if Graham's plan makes it through the Senate, there's no guarantee the House will be on board when its turn comes.

• Graham was careful not to antagonize Johnson, who can't afford to lose more than one GOP vote on anything these days.

House GOP leaders told White House officials Thursday they need another 24 hours on reconciliation, pleading for the Senate to let them figure it out.

Why it matters: After a four-plus-hour meeting in the White House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) returned to the Capitol and said they were "close" to an agreement.

• "I think probably by tonight we wrap it," he said.

Vice President Vance was in the room for the first part of the meeting, while President Trump was in and out after it became clear the meeting would be a marathon.

• They wrapped in the Oval Office, where the president gave the lawmakers pens and coins.
• Trump told the Republicans to "figure out" how to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent.

Zoom in: Johnson's optimism was publicly shared by other leaders who attended the meeting, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas).

• "Today was big," Arrington told reporters Thursday.
• "It was pretty intense. The heat was on medium the whole time," House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) told us.

Reality check: Lawmakers didn't share any details of the kind of progress they made.

• It's unclear if they made any headway on the yawning gap in how much spending they should cut, which ranges from $500 billion to $2 trillion.

Driving the news: In addition to his campaign promises, like "no taxes on tips," Trump dug up some provisions he didn't dwell on during the campaign, like ending tax breaks for sports teams and treating so-called "carried interest" as regular income, as Axios scooped Thursday.

• The private equity industry responded quickly. "President Trump's historic [2017] law struck the right balance on carried interest and encouraged local investment, innovation and economic growth," said Drew Maloney, president and CEO of the American Investment Council.

Zoom out: Since Monday, House lawmakers have been acutely aware they have until Friday night to convince Trump their one-bill approach can carry his legislative priorities. That's when the Senate GOP will be dining at Mar-a-Lago.

• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) upped the pressure Wednesday by telling his colleagues that he'd move his budget reconciliation package next week.

The intrigue: Johnson and Arrington had different responses to the Senate's implicit threat.

• "Our message to our friends and colleagues in the Senate is, allow the House to do its work," Johnson told reporters.
• "We know that they're ready to go at any time," Arrington said. "That's a healthy push for the process on our end."

Two deadlines are threatening to scuttle Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) precious plan for one, big budget bill.

Why it matters: President Trump's Friday night dinner with senators at Mar-a-Lago is the soft deadline. Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) plan to move his own bill next week is the hard one.

• Miss the first deadline, House Republicans fear, and the Senate will exploit their quality time with Trump to convince him of their two-bill approach.
• Blow past the second one, and the Senate will be firmly in control of the process.
• There's a real risk that "we're going to get jammed by the Senate," Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) told Axios on Wednesday at an Axios News Shapers event.

Between the lines: "I'm going to talk to Lindsey. He's a good friend. And he has to understand the reality of the House," Johnson told reporters Wednesday.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent paid his first official visit to Johnson Wednesday afternoon, huddling with Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on the best way to turn the president's campaign promises into reality.
• Republicans later went to the White House to applaud Trump for signing an executive order to ban transgender girls and women from female sports.
• Some members were hopeful that Trump might be able to use a pull-aside meeting to help grease a deal, but they returned to the Capitol empty-handed.

The intrigue: Graham didn't provide a specific day for his budget committee markup next week. That gives Johnson and Co. a little more flexibility.

• Some Republicans are privately discussing the prospect of voting against the Senate budget resolution if they send one over before the House reaches a compromise.
• That would add another dimension of dysfunction and call into question Congress's ability to pass any of Trump's agenda with their thin margins.

The bottom line: The House Budget Committee remains at an impasse with Chair Jodey Arrington unable to pass a resolution out of his panel.

• "I don't believe we're going to take the vote on the budget resolution this week," McClain predicted.

Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) will support Tulsi Gabbard's confirmation for director of national intelligence.

Why it matters: Young was the key remaining swing vote ahead of the Senate Intel Committee vote.

• Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) announced on Monday that she'll support Gabbard.
• "It would befit you and be helpful for the way you're perceived by members of the Intelligence Committee" to say Edward Snowden harmed national security," Young told Gabbard at her confirmation hearing last week.
• Gabbard repeatedly refused to call Snowden a traitor at the hearing.

Senate Republicans are holding their breath over President Trump's tariffs, which kick in Saturday against Canada, Mexico and China.

Why it matters: Many senators spent months telling Axios they saw the move from Trump more as a negotiating tactic. But some were concerned about what would happen if he followed through.

🚨 Now, sweeping 25% tariffs start this weekend on Canadian and Mexican imports — and 10% on Chinese goods, the White House said Friday. All three countries have vowed to retaliate against broad tariffs.

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios in August that "across-the-board tariffs is not something I have been for in the past." Thune is open to the selective use of tariffs.
• Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) described Trump's tariffs promises as potentially "problematic."
• Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), a former Senate Commerce Committee chair, also told Axios in August he's listening, but "not convinced that's the best approach."

Between the lines: Senators often cite concerns about tariffs leading to inflated prices for Americans — after a campaign cycle where Republicans repeatedly said former President Biden's policies led to inflation.

Zoom in: More tenured senators, especially free traders, have learned the value of waiting instead of staking out positions Trump can upend at any moment.

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is taking a "wait-and-see attitude," he told Reuters. Iowa is a big farm goods exporter.
• "Normally I'd be stronger in my comments because I am a free trader. I used to be in the majority when free trading was a majority of the Congress, but now I am in the minority," he said.

😈 The newer senators are on Trump's side, and they're content to let him cook.

• "Everybody runs through the streets saying, 'The sky is falling! The sky is falling!' but it doesn't fall," Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.V.) told Reuters.

Zoom out: The list of surprised leaders stretches beyond the Senate.

• "I don't believe that will happen," House Speaker Mike Johnson said earlier this week about across-the-board tariffs.

New Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been privately indicating she's prepared to intervene in contested primaries.

Why it matters: Senate Democrats want to avoid the GOP's Obama-era pain of watching preferred candidates lose primaries to unelectable newcomers.

• Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) know their ability to claw their way back to the majority starts with candidates who are built for the general election.
• The top target: Getting the right candidates in three of the most competitive races of the 2026 cycle — Maine, North Carolina and now Michigan.

Zoom in: At a private DSCC fundraiser on Wednesday night, Gillibrand told donors that Roy Cooper, the former North Carolina governor, would be a "formidable candidate," according to people familiar with the matter.

• Cooper has yet to decide whether to run, but he's clearly indicated he's considering it and used his farewell address to say, "I am not done."
• A big announcement from Cooper would help offset fears of losing other seats — especially if Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) decides to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

Democrats were stunned by Sen. Gary Peters' (D-Mich.) surprise announcement he won't seek a third term, opening a primary they thought would be closed.

• Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) are both mulling primary bids. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and the current Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist are also taking a look.

The bottom line: In these MAGA times, the NRSC is typically left with whatever candidate President Trump endorses.

• Schumer and Gillibrand don't have that kind of power, but they clearly want to avoid intra-party fights and save their resources for the general election.
• "As always, the DSCC evaluates every primary on a case-by-case basis and doesn't take any options off the table," a DSCC aide said.