There's a new, combative air at one of the world's largest office buildings, as accomplished military leaders are axed, thousands of average Joes face layoffs and press access is muddied.

Why it matters: The Pentagon, so often roasted for its sedateness, is being blitzed by change. And the long-term tea leaves are hard to read.

Here are some of the latest developments:

1. A "DOD Rapid Response" account sprang to life on X. One of its stated goals there is "fighting against fake news!" Posts have so far amplified clips of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and singled out lawmakers and journalists.
2. Defense Department personnel were instructed not to respond to the "What did you do last week" email, which Elon Musk has championed. The far-flung message posed information-security concerns, according to critics.
3. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs, chief of naval operations and vice chief of staff of the Air Force were fired. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, who in January joined venture capital firm Shield Capital, will be nominated as the next chairman.
4. The Pentagon briefing room was shuttered, except for when public briefings are underway. This move came after CNN, NPR, the New York Times and other outlets were told to vacate their workspaces.
5. Up to 8% of the civilian workforce is on the chopping block, and a hiring freeze is on the horizon. Hegseth meanwhile ordered a $50 billion rework for fiscal year 2026.

Zoom out: Trump administration cuts are hitting veterans particularly hard, Axios previously reported.

• "This is the largest attack on veteran employment in our lifetime," William Attig, executive director at the Union Veterans Council, said.
• Veterans comprised 28% of the federal workforce last year. (That's a lot higher than 5% of the private sector workforce.)

Go deeper: Musk's "move fast, break things" ethos threatens U.S. security

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered military officials to find $50 billion in budget cuts for fiscal year 2026 to be redirected to align with President Trump's priorities for the department, the Pentagon said Wednesday.

Why it matters: The review to identify offsets from the Biden administration's FY26 budget is set to overhaul Defense Department priorities, with a Pentagon official noting its mandate is border security, ending diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs and building Trump's planned Iron Dome missile defense shield.

By the numbers: Robert Salesses, performing the duties of the deputy defense secretary, said these offsets are targeted at 8% (about $50 billion) of the Biden administration's budget, "which will then be spent on programs aligned" with Trump's priorities.

What they're saying: "The Department of Defense is conducting this review to ensure we are making the best use of the taxpayers' dollars in a way that delivers on the President Trump's defense priorities efficiently and effectively," Salesses said in an emailed statement Wednesday.

• "Through our budgets, the Department of Defense will once again resource warfighting and cease unnecessary spending that set our military back under the previous administration, including through so-called 'climate change' and other woke programs, as well as excessive bureaucracy," he added.
• Salesses' comments echo those of Hegseth at a conference in Germany last week. "The Defense Department is not in the business of climate change, solving the global thermostat. We're in the business of deterring and winning wars," Hegseth said.
• "So, things like that we want to look for to find efficiencies and many others — the way we acquire weapons, system procurement."

Zoom out: The Defense Department, which has 128 coastal military installations in the U.S. alone, had previously identified climate change as a key threat and the Navy has held exercises to help be better prepared for extreme weather.

• The Navy in its Climate Action 2030 report described it as "one of the most destabilizing forces of our time, exacerbating other national security concerns and posing serious readiness challenges."
• A 2023 Congressional Research Service report citing Pentagon officials warned climate change "has growing implications for the costs of operating U.S. military installations and associated equipment," noting recent hurricanes and storms had caused billions of dollars in damage to bases.

Go deeper: Climate change poses growing threat to NATO

So you want to build an Iron Dome. But much bigger, more complex and pricier than the one protecting Israel, right?

Why it matters: President Trump's fiat for a hemispheric shield raised more questions than it initially answered, spurring debate among lawmakers, military officials, defense contractors, analysts and hobbyists.

• Much like Trump riffed on Ronald Reagan with MAGA, here, too, does he invoke the former president and his Star Wars ideals.

• This is a campaign promise made manifest and also a return to 2019, when Trump pledged to "detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States, anytime, anywhere and any place."

To figure out what's needed to make the vision a reality, Axios consulted defense experts, tuned into timely congressional testimony and did the reading. Here's some of the consensus:

Sensors galore. U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command have for years yearned for additional monitoring capabilities.

• Their jobs are getting no easier, with a steady drumbeat of foreign activity off the coast of Alaska.
• Gen. Gregory Guillot told lawmakers last week: "You can't defeat what you can't see, and the adversaries have an increasing capability of reaching us and threatening us from ranges beyond what some of our current systems can detect and track."
• The possibilities stretch from seabed to space, including the E-7 Wedgetail and the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor layer.

Networks and handoffs. One of the biggest hurdles here — exemplified by Northeast drone mania — is information sharing and interdiction responsibilities.

• The Global Information Dominance Experiments are chipping away at this. The exercises were resuscitated by the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office and feed the beast that is Joint All-Domain Command and Control.
• "We have a network of ground-based sensors that is very exquisite and very effective, but we need to be thinking about out-of-the-box solutions to get that coverage of hypersonic threats, to get that coverage of drone threats," Masao Dahlgren, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview.
• "The sensing piece and the software needed to stitch it all together, I think, is going to be the No. 1 priority for any Iron Dome, before we even get into the conversation of what we're going to defend."

A stomach for debate. Missile defense can be cast as provocative. It's partly chicken-and-egg thinking: If country A has better defense, country B wants better offense.

• "The United States has been restrained in its development and deployment of strategic defenses with the hope that Russia and China would follow suit," Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Axios. "But that restraint really hasn't bought us anything."
• "Both adversaries," she said, "are developing and deploying serious air and missile defenses of their homelands."
• Space-based weapons are polarizing. There are widely expressed concerns about the exploitation of space and potential arms races there.

Money, money, money. The executive order included no price tag or plainly stated funding source. But if the past is any indication of the future, Iron Dome for America will compete for and chew through cash.

• "This will cost tens of billions of dollars and require a sustained commitment over at least a decade," Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told Axios. (His spending breakdown can be found here.)
• "It will be interesting to see how the administration proposes paying for this," he added, "and whether they can advance the program enough in the next four years to make it stick when a future administration takes over."
• Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) filed legislation, the Iron Dome Act, that would inject billions into missile defense. During a congressional hearing, Sullivan shared a poster highlighting Long Range Discrimination Radar, Aegis Ashore and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense.

Humility. Perfect, impenetrable defense isn't realistic. Certain sites demand priority, and something will eventually get through.

• There were 350 drone detections across 100 installations last year.
• Both Israel and Ukraine — smaller than the U.S. and frequently tested by neighbors — miss. Saturation is deadly.
• There's also defense-tech graveyards littered with such grand plans.

My thought bubble: Defense of Guam will be a good barometer.

• The Missile Defense Agency for the first time in testing intercepted a ballistic missile target from Guam. It happened last year.

Catch up quick: The Space Development Agency and MDA pinged industry to see what's possible.

• RTX, L3Harris Technologies and General Atomics have all said they're well-positioned to win work.

What's next: Government officials have less than 60 days to complete homework assigned to them by the executive order.

An American Airlines regional passenger jet carrying 64 people collided with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter in midair near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, on Wednesday night, officials said, citing preliminary reports.

The latest: Emergency respondents were now "switching from a rescue operation to a recovery operation," D.C. Fire and EMS Department chief John Donnelly said at a press briefing Thursday morning.

• "At this point, we don't believe there are any survivors from this accident, and we have recovered 27 people from the plane and one from the helicopter," Donnelly added.
• Remnants of the two aircrafts have been discovered, including the fuselage of the American Airlines plane, which was found in three sections, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy said at a press briefing Thursday morning.

State of play: Duffy added that the U.S. still "absolutely" had the safest airspace in the world.

• The cause of the crash is still under investigation. "Something went wrong here," Duffy acknowledged, though he stressed that both aircrafts' flight paths in the lead up to the collision were standard for the D.C. airspace and that there hadn't been a communication breakdown.
• A little over 14 hours after the collision, the airport can "safely" reopen at 11am, said Jack Potter, head of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.

The big picture: The American Eagle Flight 5342 was en route from Wichita, Kansas, to Washington, D.C., with 60 passengers and four crew members on board, per a statement on American Airlines' website about the incident involving its subsidiary airline.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared a statement on X just after midnight Thursday from a Defense Department spokesperson saying the U.S. Army UH-60 helicopter was on a training exercise out of Fort Belvoir, Virginia, when the incident happened.

Zoom in: The collision prompted a ground stop and Reagan Washington National Airport said on X all takeoffs and landings had been "halted at DCA."

• A figure skating group said on X that skaters, coaches and their families were on the flight following the U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Wichita. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Telegram that Russian figure skaters and other citizens were on board.

What they're saying: President Trump thanked first responders in an emailed statement late Wednesday and said that he'd been "fully briefed on the terrible accident," adding: "May God Bless their souls."

• Trump made clear on Truth Social early Thursday that he's seeking answers on how the collision happened, saying: "This is a bad situation that looks like it should have been prevented."

What we're watching: Donnelly said at an early Thursday morning briefing some 300 responders were at the scene, where temperatures were expected to be below freezing overnight.

• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on X her department was "deploying every available" U.S. Coast Guard resource for search and rescue efforts.
• The Federal Aviation Administration said it would investigate the incident alongside the National Transportation Safety Board, with the latter leading the probe.

Background: Reagan Washington National Airport is owned by the federal government and operated by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, which serves the D.C. metropolitan area.

• It's an American Airlines hub that provides nonstop flights to 102 domestic destinations and six international destinations, per the airport's website.

Flashback: Wednesday's collision is the worst air tragedy in the D.C. area since the Air Florida Flight 90 crash on Jan. 13, 1982.

• The plane crashed into the 14th Street Bridge after take off from Reagan Washington National Airport, killing 70 passengers, four crew members and four people in vehicles on the bridge over the Potomac River.

Go deeper: In photos: Crews search Potomac River after air crash near Reagan airport

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

For a man who's courted so much controversy, whose first name became a conservative chorus on X and whose nomination prompted questions of "Who?!" at happy hours, Pete Hegseth's public views on China, Russia and defense tech are pretty standard.

The big picture: President Trump is disruptor in chief. His picks for key posts are unorthodox; his flurry of fiats, some targeting U.S. troops, are catching backlash.

• But Hegseth — a combat veteran, former Fox News personality and now defense secretary — toes the line on the "pacing challenge," the "acute threat" and other governmentese.

Here's what written testimony, submitted to Congress ahead of the historic 51-50 vote, reveals about his geopolitics and weapons thinking.

China: The potential seizure of Taiwan, a "fait accompli," should motivate U.S. military modernization. Guam is a linchpin for Indo-Pacific success. Collaborating with Japan will pay deterrence dividends.

Russia: Despite sanctions and other constraints, its war machine still packs a punch. Moscow's digital subterfuge and Arctic ambitions "are particularly acute." The invasion of Ukraine is "settling into a war of attrition."

Iran: The regime, which props up violent proxies, creeps closer to nuclear weapons. Its missile and drone arsenal demands countermeasures. The U.S. should help Israel defend itself.

North Korea: An "intense focus" on missile development, hacking gains and nuclear arms is concerning. Its "space capabilities" must be monitored. Missile defense needs beefing up closer to home.

Nukes: A triad is a necessity. Full stop. And full steam ahead on the Sentinel nuclear missile, B-21 Raider and the Columbia-class submarine. Partnering with the National Nuclear Security Administration is of highest priority. NNSA labs, plants and sites want for dramatic renovations.

Doing business: The Pentagon is thinking too narrowly; it should look beyond Cold War suppliers. Places like the Office of Strategic Capital and Defense Innovation Unit are oases. Delayed, over-budget projects require a "thorough review."

Army upgrades: Wars abroad underline the value of cyber, autonomy and precision fires.

Next Generation Air Dominance: A careful review will come. (Punt.)

Shipbuilding: The U.S. must up its game. Navy leadership should develop a "shipbuilding road map to increase our capacity" and remove supply chain chokepoints.

Yes, but: His takes on women's role in combat, ousting "woke" generals and takedown of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives have been cast inside and outside Congress as far more radical.

• One of Hegseth's first posts on X as defense secretary included a photo with a handwritten note: "DOD =/= DEI."

What's next: Hegseth promised to delegate day-to-day matters to his yet-to-be-confirmed deputy. Trump picked billionaire investor Stephen Feinberg for that post.

• Meantime, the potential Army, Navy and Air Force secretaries (Dan Driscoll, John Phelan and Troy Meink) await their hearings and votes.

Go deeper: Trump's Pentagon pick wants to "Make America Lethal Again"

Anduril Industries will build Arsenal-1 in Columbus, Ohio, propelling its plans to pump out tens of thousands of autonomous vehicles, sensors and weapons.

• The production lines could go hot as soon as July 2026, according to the company.

Why it matters: This is a make-or-break moment for the $14 billion neo-prime, as it's promised the Pentagon and investors alike an overhaul of defense manufacturing.

• Speculation ran wild after it hinted at an initial stateside megafactory and future copycats abroad in August.

The latest: The 5 million-square-foot Arsenal-1 will be erected near Rickenbacker International Airport, which has ties to the Ohio Air National Guard.

• A 700,000-square-foot facility already on the plot will be renovated.
• Barracuda cruise missiles and Roadrunner interceptors are early contenders for production. Energetics — materials found in ammo, warheads and more — aren't on the menu, period.
• The location grants Anduril access to a pair of 12,000-foot runways. Testing nearby is an option.

What we're watching: How Anduril taps a Rust Belt workforce amid louder and louder chatter of American reindustrialization.

• Chief executive Brian Schimpf told Axios in November available labor and state government enthusiasm were big factors.
• Intel is building a semiconducter shop miles down the road.

Context: Ohio is home to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, the Air Force Research Laboratory and the National Air and Space Intelligence Center.

• Anduril is working closely with the service on collaborative combat aircraft. General Atomics is also on the drone wingmen project.

Catch up quick: Anduril secured $1.5 billion in funding over the summer. The money will be used in part for the facility.

• The company has other footprints in Rhode Island (focused on robo-subs), Mississippi (focused on solid rocket motors), Texas (where jammers and air autonomy are assessed) and Australia.
• No existing plants will be shuttered, Chief Strategy Officer Chris Brose told reporters.

The bottom line: "This is a massive milestone for Anduril on its journey as a company," Brose said.

• "We will be creating, with our partners in Ohio, something that does not currently exist in the American defense industrial base."

Go deeper: Central Ohio is an industrial development "sweet spot"

Footage showing a previously unseen Chinese warplane scrambled aviation geeks Thursday, with some joking the clips were the perfect Christmas present.

Why it matters: The aircraft emerges amid fiery debates about the future of airpower — manned versus unmanned, mainly — in the U.S. and abroad.

• Competition between Washington and Beijing is also boiling.

Zoom in: Videos and photos flooding social media show a large, delta-wing-style aircraft with a cockpit chased by a J-20S fighter.

• Its design suggests stealth.
• Russian state media quickly amplified the visuals, dubbing it the "White Emperor."
• Aviation Week reported that the main landing gear has the "hallmark of heavy fighter-bombers, such as the Sukhoi Su-34."

Yes, but: Much remains unknown about the aircraft. Neither the Chinese government nor industry immediately took credit for the daytime flight.

What we're watching: The fate of the U.S. Air Force's futuristic fighter is in the hands of the incoming Trump administration, following Secretary Frank Kendall's punt.

• "I don't want to make a decision that's going to be disrupted and reversed, potentially, by the new team," Kendall said Dec. 19 at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event.
• "I don't want us to start industry down a specific course and then have to abruptly reverse that a few months from now."

The State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, will travel to Damascus in the coming days, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: This will be the first visit by a State Department official to Syria in many years. The visit is part if a resumption of U.S. diplomatic engagement with the transitional government in Syria after the toppling of the Assad regime.

• Leaf is expected to meet Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of Sunni Islamist opposition group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the U.S. officials said.
• Leaf will be joined on her trip by former U.S. envoy to Syria Daniel Rubinstein. U.S. officials say Rubenstein, who retired from the State Department, was called back to service in order to serve at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, but after the collapse of the Assad regime was asked to go to Syria instead as the top U.S. diplomat on the ground.

State of play: Secretary of State Tony Blinken said last week that the U.S. has been in direct contact with HTS, which led the offensive that toppled dictator Bashar al-Assad.

• It was the first time the U.S. had publicly confirmed any direct contact with HTS, which it designates as a terrorist organization.
• Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan that the talks with HTS were focused on discussing the fate of American journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in Syria for 12 years.
• That conversation also included a discussion of the U.S. principles for potentially recognizing the new Syrian government, Blinken said.

Zoom out: The U.S. military has had an ongoing military presence in Syria since 2014 to counter ISIS.

• Pentagon Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday that there are currently 2,000 U.S. troops in the country — more than had previously been disclosed.
• 1,100 of those are "temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission requirements" and which were sent to Syria prior to Assad's fall, Ryder said.
• Ryder said he'd only learned of the 2,000 number "today."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Ryder's comments.

Drone hysteria has been gripping the East Coast. It's proven two things:

• Unmanned tech flexed by the Pentagon and so frequently seen in faraway wars has permeated public thinking.
• The U.S., with its patchwork abilities to report, track and engage drones, is not ready for a real incursion.

Why it matters: Foreign surveillance of sensitive sites — military outposts, nuclear energy plants, weapons factories and more — is a serious hazard. But in many purported instances, that's simply not what's happening.

• Civilian planes, helicopters, constellations and Christmas lights can from afar look menacing.
• Nothing alien or nefarious is afoot in the Northeast, according to statement after statement.

Yes, but: The calls for a response have shown how countering drones and other aerial threats looks vastly different on the battlefield than it does at home. And who, exactly, takes the lead gets messy.

• In Ukraine, Israel and the Red Sea, overhead attacks are detected by visuals, acoustics, radar and other means before they are disabled by electronic interference, entangling nets or pricey interceptors.
• It gets far trickier over populated peacetime areas with sparse self-defense. Plummeting aircraft or debris can kill people; errant munitions can wreck city blocks.
• "The intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that we can employ outside the homeland aren't capabilities that we can necessarily deploy inside the homeland," Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters.
• Responsibilities in the U.S. are fragmented among the Defense, Transportation and Homeland Security departments as well as the FBI and the Federal Aviation Administration. Shooting at aircraft, manned or not, will land the average person in serious legal trouble.

Our thought bubble: Confirmed cases of drones buzzing critical infrastructure are likely penetration tests, a move familiar to those in cyber circles.

• Let's prod their defenses and gauge reactions, you can imagine a Russia or China or extremist cell saying. What can we learn, and how can we adapt?

What they're saying: "Drones can easily enter and traverse airspace, yet authorities often don't know who's operating them, whether their presence is a threat, or how to respond effectively," Hidden Level CEO Jeff Cole told Axios.

• "It's no longer just an FAA or Air Force issue — drones represent tangible risks to critical infrastructure and human safety, requiring a collective approach to ensure security for everyone."

Between the lines: This feels like Chinese spy balloon déjà vu. Little has changed since then.

• There were then the same questions about spotting, tracking and interdiction. There were also the same worries about those responsible and what they were collecting.
• The balloon, though, was brought down over the ocean by an F-22 strapped with an AIM-9X missile. That's not even remotely realistic here.

Catch up quick: Federal authorities this week called on Congress to enact legislation that "would extend and expand existing counter-drone authorities to identify and mitigate any threat that may emerge."

• This comes after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) demanded the deployment of "special drone-detection tech," President-elect Trump suggested shooting them down, and Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) wildly claimed an Iranian mothership was involved.

Be smart: Imaging specialist Maxar published photos showing Tehran's latest drone carrier, the Shahid Bagheri, anchored near Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf.

The bottom line: No single policy change or piece of gear will solve this cluster. It requires an overhaul of domestic defense, including considerations for information warfare.

The defense world was buzzing over the weekend as the U.S. Air Force punted a decision on its futuristic fighter into the new year and into the hands of an administration that could doom it.

Why it matters: A shape-shifting, multibillion-dollar military endeavor feels like an easy target for an administration obsessed with government bloat.

• President-elect Trump's nominees and advisers have made clear defense orthodoxy is on the chopping block.
• That's doubly true for projects they deem pricey or archaic.

Driving the news: The Air Force on Dec. 5 said it will defer ruling on Next-Generation Air Dominance and instead continue studying what is needed for success.

• Secretary Frank Kendall months ago told reporters that experts are "taking a very hard look at whether we've got the right design concept."
• Money is among the biggest hurdles. Kendall wants an F-22 replacement for the cost of an F-35, some $80-100 million.
• A contract was expected this year. Cancellation, suspension or some other dramatic move would be a blow to the contenders, presumed to be Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Friction point: Both Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk, billionaires tapped to cut costs and rightsize the federal workforce, have ridiculed manned aircraft.

• Ramaswamy told Axios' Mike Allen at the Aspen Institute's Washington forum that sharpening U.S. defense means investing in drones and hypersonic missiles, not "a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets."
• Musk posted on X, which he owns, that "some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35" and that "manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway."

The messaging spooked some and excited others. It prompted questions at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California and continues to inspire think pieces.

What they're saying: "There are real questions about the cost of NGAD and there are real questions about the right mix of manned and unmanned aircraft in the future force," Jerry McGinn, the executive director of the George Mason University Baroni Center for Government Contracting, told Axios.

• "This gives the Trump administration space to address these important issues in an intentional manner."

Yes, but: There is plenty of appetite for America's warplanes on the Hill, across the military and even in some MAGA documents.

• As Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin defended the NGAD process, delays and all, at RNDF, other service officials at Edwards Air Force Base, California, told reporters they're far from ditching manned fighters.
• The Pentagon chapter of Project 2025, authored by a former Trump defense chief, advocates for "the next-generation air dominance system of systems" but stops short of backing a crewed fighter.

The bottom line: Killing NGAD — even portions of it — would signal a sea change for both the military and its contractors.

President Biden responded to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime in Syria by bombing ISIS camps to try to prevent the terror group's resurgence.

• President-elect Trump wants little to do with the havoc in Syria, if his social media posts are gospel. He says the country "is a mess, but is not our friend," and that he doesn't want to get involved — a reflection of the isolationist banner he carried in the recent campaign.

Why it matters: Biden has less than six weeks left in office, so how the U.S. proceeds will largely be up to Trump. And while the president-elect's base may support steering clear of Syria's chaos, certain national security officials won't.

• "Going forward, there's a pretty good chance his advisers say, 'Look, Mr. President, this ISIS problem is pretty serious. We need to take it seriously,'" Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute, told Axios.

Axios is hearing similar takes around Washington: That for all their differences on Syria, how Biden and Trump deal with the situation there is unlikely to be radically different.

• Instead, expect shades of change between administrations.
• "I think the strategies will largely be similar in the sense that neither Biden or Trump will want to commit ground troops inside of Syria," Alex Plitsas, director of the counterterrorism program at the Atlantic Council, told Axios.
• But "neither will want or allow Syria to become a safe haven for groups like the Islamic State," he added.
• "So while the public statements have been very different, I believe the policies will actually be very similar."

State of play: U.S. A-10, B-52 and F-15 aircraft pounded 75-plus ISIS targets in Syria over the weekend, part of an effort to keep the terror group from exploiting Assad's ouster by rebels.

• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, traveling in Japan, described the strikes as "pretty successful."
• Some of Trump's most loyal MAGA followers chided the Biden administration over the attacks, reminders of Trump's frequent criticism of U.S. interventions abroad.
• Matt Gaetz, the former Florida congressman and Trump's failed initial pick for attorney general, criticized Biden for bombing Syria while Trump was in "Europe to make peace."

Biden has a little more than a month on the White House clock. That's not much time to:

• Decipher the role of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate that's now commanding the spotlight on the ground in Syria.
• Help stabilize a country ravaged by civil war and chemical weapons, some of which are still there.
• And put his own stamp on the broader, raucous Middle East.

What we're watching: Some 900 U.S. troops are stationed in Syria, where they are charged with rooting out ISIS.

• Trump might want to pull them out — he's promised to "end endless wars," a hazy metric.
• But he tried that in Syria during his first term — and wound up keeping hundreds of troops there to protect oil fields.

Go deeper: Trump inherits a Middle East in flux

Should Ron DeSantis ditch the Florida governor's mansion for the Pentagon, President-elect Trump will gain another tough-on-the-border compatriot with military experience.

Why it matters: DeSantis pledged to wage war on cartels inside Mexico and has sent guardsmen to Texas for the troubled Operation Lone Star. He's a natural fit for Trump's plans to use the military for mass deportations.

• DeSantis also largely aligns with Trump's foreign policy worldview on issues like skepticism over aid to Ukraine and prioritizing competition with China.

State of play: Trump's first pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, an Army veteran and television personality, is under pressure to drop out. DeSantis is one potential replacement.

• The two have personally discussed the matter, according to the Bulwark's Marc Caputo. They have also feuded in the past; think "Ron DeSanctimonious" and "DeSaster."
• It's unclear if DeSantis would take the gig, which would mean leaving the last two years of his term as governor on the table.
• Hegseth, meanwhile, has been furiously reposting support for his own nomination on X. His mother also stumped for him Wednesday morning on "Fox and Friends," and he made his case in writing, on the airwaves, and in meetings with senators.

Context: DeSantis is no stranger to the military.

• He served in the Navy as a judge advocate general, more commonly known as JAG. He deployed to Iraq as legal counsel amid a surge of U.S. troops.
• Both U.S. Central and Special Operations commands are based in Florida, a state he has led since 2019.

Zoom in: While challenging Trump for the GOP nomination, DeSantis advocated a "Pacific-first" foreign policy, focusing U.S. power on countering China rather than issues like Ukraine.

• He also called for making the military less "woke" — a cause Hegseth has also championed — by eliminating DEI initiatives and ending Pentagon contracts with certain "left-wing firms."

What's next: DeSantis, Hegseth or any other candidate will need to be confirmed by the Senate.

• Defense secretary, effectively Pentagon CEO, is among the most important positions to fill.

Go deeper: Sunshine State to West Wing: Florida dominates Trump's administration

The greater Middle East is erupting, and in just six weeks — tick tock, tick tock — it's Donald Trump's problem.

Why it matters: For all the attention paid to technological face-offs with China and measurements of military might in the Indo-Pacific, it will be the pressures of the Middle East that dominate the early days of Trump's Pentagon.

• That puts a premium on drone and counter-drone tech, which evolved in the post-9/11 world, as well as air defenses.
• In turn, the teeth of American forces posted in China's backyard could be dulled, as Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo cautioned days ago.

Between the lines: Some of Trump's picks for key government posts are global war on terrorism veterans. Their experience and potential disillusionment will color, not determine, the administration's approach.

• Task and Purpose explained it expertly this week.
• "The worldview of these veterans has largely been shaped by more than two decades of war," Jeff Schogol wrote. "[Pete] Hegseth, [Tulsi] Gabbard, and [JD] Vance in particular have shown a deep distrust for the foreign interventionalist ideology that underpinned the start" of the war on terror.

Our thought bubble: Squaring much-debated MAGA isolationism with the dangers of the Middle East, including continued assaults on U.S. warships, is difficult.

Among the major flash points this year:

• Breakthrough fighting in Syria throws Russia off balance and elevates Turkey. The U.S. keeps about 900 troops in the country; the Defense Department said it had no hand in the clashes around Aleppo.
• Houthi attacks off Yemen paralyze global shipping and push U.S. Navy stockpiles into the spotlight. Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer, said at an Axios event that rebel missile advancements "shocked" him.
• Months of war in Gaza, spurred by the Oct. 7 massacre, stress test the U.S.-Israel relationship, including weapons accountability. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire is brokered with Lebanon.
• Iran pushes ahead with its nuclear program, earning a jab from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and launches historic but largely intercepted drone-and-missile barrages.
• Three U.S. soldiers are killed at Tower 22 in Jordan. Washington retaliates with B-1 bombers and more, blasting 85 targets in Iraq and Syria.

Trump himself threatened to get involved in the region, saying Monday there "will be ALL HELL TO PAY" if hostages taken by Hamas are not freed come his inauguration.

• Exactly how, when or where isn't clear, but he has hit back before.
• "If you are a bad guy and you are not afraid of Trump then you are also a dumb guy," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Axios' Barak Ravid. "Bad and dumb guys don't last long."
• This is also a preview of the next four years. Policy by posting. Threats via threads.

Yes, but: "Sentiment among Washington's China hawks and Middle East hands is the same: Don't let the urgent get in the way of the important," Ian Byrne with Beacon Global Strategies told Axios.

• "It's a false premise that the U.S. must prioritize one region over the other when U.S. interests overlap across both."

What's next: Novel solutions are needed where decades of effort and overwhelming firepower have failed. All eyes are on Trump.

The Biden administration announced a new $725 million security assistance package for Ukraine on Monday that includes a provision for more land mines and precision rocket launchers.

Why it matters: President Biden has committed to a "surge" in aid for Kyiv before he leaves office, with President-elect Trump having publicly criticized military aid to Ukraine.

• Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump's pick for special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has pushed a proposal to end the war between the two nations that would include requiring Kyiv to relinquish its goal of regaining seized territory.

Driving the news: National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden had directed the Defense Department to rapidly deliver to Ukraine materiel that includes "hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of additional rockets, and other critical capabilities" between now and mid-January.

• "To help Ukraine stabilize its lines in the east, the President has authorized the provision of non-persistent anti-personnel land mines to Ukraine as a limited exception to the Administration's continuing landmine policy," per Sullivan's statement. 
• "In response to the entry of North Korean soldiers into this war, the President has decided to adjust permissions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles. And to disrupt Russia's war machine, the United States has implemented major sanctions against Russia's financial sector, with more sanctions to follow."

State of play: Russian leader Vladimir Putin's forces last month attacked Ukraine using an "experimental" intermediate-range ballistic missile.

• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in November that Russian forces had been unsuccessful in the way they were fighting, so they changed their tactics.
• "They lead with dismounted forces, who are able to close and do things to kind of pave the way for mechanized forces," he said.
• "So that's what the Ukrainians are seeing right now. And they have a need for things that can help slow down that effort, on the part of the Russians. They're fabricating their own antipersonnel land mines right now."

Zoom in: The package that's provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority from Department of Defense stocks includes ammunition for HIMARS precision rocket launchers (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems), per a statement from Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

• It also covers stinger missiles, counter-drone systems and anti-armor weapons, among other weaponry, according to Blinken.

What they're saying: Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a briefing Monday, "The bottom line is at the president's direction, we will spend every dollar that Congress has appropriated for Ukraine and to replenish our stockpiles."

• Ryder added: "We understand the urgent situation in Ukraine and the president's direction and will continue to do everything we can to ensure that Ukraine is getting the aid that it needs."

Go deeper: Biden lets Ukraine use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles in Russia's Kursk region

Houthi rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that "can do things that are just amazing," the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer said at an Axios event.

The big picture: The militant group has for a year used drones and missiles to strangle waters off Yemen, disrupting international shipping.

• Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante on Wednesday said the Houthis "are getting scary."
• "I'm an engineer and a physicist, and I've been around missiles my whole career," he said at the Future of Defense summit in Washington, DC. "What I've seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I'm just shocked."

State of play: The group's forces menace almost every ship passing by — civilian or military — and have even sent some to the seafloor.

• Two U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked days ago as they slipped through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
• At least eight attack drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and four anti-ship cruise missiles were intercepted, according to U.S. Central Command. No injuries or damage to the warships were reported.
• The barrages are said to be in retaliation to Israel's war in Gaza. But many targets have no obvious affiliation.

Zoom out: The Houthis are empowered by Iran. The U.S. considers the regime a national security threat.

• "The Houthis are the only Iranian proxy with anti-ship ballistic missiles," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Axios. "That is no accident."
• Houthi zeal and Iranian backing, he added, "have proven to be a lethal combination."

Go deeper: U.S. bombers strike Iran-backed Houthi weapons storage sites in Yemen