President Trump, Elon Musk, and their band of DOGE budget-cutters celebrate daily, even hourly targets to cut U.S. spending on everything from foreign aid to FAA personnel.

• Trump himself has teased a balanced budget — an impossibility without historic cuts to America's most popular programs, such as Social Security.

Why it matters: Their proposed cuts are but drips of water in America's overflowing bucket of debt — $36 trillion and counting. In fact, most days, America racks up more interest on its debt — $3 billion per day! — than DOGE can find in savings. That leaky bucket is the reality of your nation's finances.

This column is our attempt to clinically outline the facts about deficits — and efforts to reduce or eliminate them.

The big picture: Trump and Musk are correct that America is drowning in deficits. Some of it flows from silly spending on stale or even stupid programs. Those make for terrific X dunking: Agencies with more software licenses than employees! A $324,671 USDA grant for "Increasing DEIA Programming for Integrated Pest Management"! A $3 million Education Department contract "to write a report that showed that prior reports were not utilized by schools"!

• But trimming fat is harder than it looks: 37% of the contract terminations on an initial list on DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" (417 out of 1,125) weren't expected to save any money, usually because it had already been spent.
• And the only way to truly reduce the deficit is to target the very programs Trump refuses to touch — defense, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They account for 86% of the budget.
• That's reality for a country that, across Democratic and Republican administrations, has spent taxpayer money without restraint or care about debt. This is one area where everyone is guilty.

Musk and DOGE suck up a lot of attention for doing what former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) did by needling "the boneheads of both parties," and the late Sen. William Proxmire (D-Wis.) did with his Golden Fleece Award: highlighting the need for radical change, and the absurdity of many U.S. programs. Even Musk critics should applaud him for getting the public to pay attention to massive bugs in the federal system.

• But the Trump team is also using the guise of budget-cutting to eliminate jobs or areas they disagree with — or that undermine their ambitions. To date, most of the proposed cuts fall into this bucket.
• In doing so, they're also usurping the power of Congress — which, under the Constitution, sets U.S. spending priorities and budgets. That's producing court fights.

📊 State of play: The idea of DOGE is popular: A poll released yesterday by Harvard's Center for American Political Studies and The Harris Poll found 72% of U.S. registered voters polled online support the existence of a federal agency focused on efficiency.

• Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, told CNBC in Miami on Monday that while any "bureaucracy pushes back on everything," DOGE "needs to be done," and should be "not just about the deficit. It's about building the right policies, procedures and the government we deserve."

So Trump and his aides correctly calculate that both the cuts and the tales of government insanity are popular with the vast majority of Americans. Even if the reality isn't quite as sexy:

• No, tens of millions of dead people aren't getting Social Security checks. That's a known computer coding quirk that wasn't fixed because of the cost.
• No, DOGE didn't save $8 billion on a contract by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The New York Times Upshot discovered that DOGE was hanging its hat on an earlier database error that had been corrected to say $8 million. $2.5 million had been spent — so canceling the contract saved $5.5 million at most.
• No, the U.S. didn't send $50 million worth of condoms to Hamas, as Trump said on-camera. "That's a LOT of condoms," Musk joked. In fact, the International Medical Corps was providing medical and trauma services in Gaza, including family planning programming and emergency contraception.

Reality check: Of the roughly $7 trillion the U.S. spent in 2024 (as calculated by Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin)...

• 60% went to mandatory programs — including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, unemployment insurance and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).
• 13% went to defense.
• 13% to interest payments.
• 14% for discretionary spending — leaving Trump not quite $1 trillion.

So when you consider where federal money really goes, most DOGE oddities and outrages amount to rounding errors in a sea of government obligations.

By the numbers: Earlier this month, Trump promised on Truth Social: "BALANCED BUDGET!!!" Here's what would have to happen to deliver that, according to nonpartisan and academic experts:

• You'd need to eliminate roughly $2 trillion just to make up for the current deficit projection, plus interest on our existing debt.
• That'd mean massive cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicare and defense.
• There's also the question of how many times you can spend the same dollar. Trump says he wants tariffs to balance the budget — but he also wants them to eliminate income taxes. And "DOGE dividend" checks would send savings back to taxpayers instead of helping dig the country out of this hole.

The backstory: Trump is handcuffed by political reality and his own statements.

• He was elected on the promise of tax cuts. Those cuts likely would create even bigger deficits, at least in the short term.
• "Social Security won't be touched," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity two weeks ago. "Other than fraud or something we're going to find it's going to be strengthened but won't be touched. Medicare, Medicaid, none of that stuff is going to be touched."

Case in point: House Republicans have vowed to cut Medicaid in the budget bill that would pay for Trump's tax cuts, border security buildup and other priorities.

• But Steve Bannon pointed out on his "War Room" podcast: "A lot of MAGA's on Medicaid ... Medicaid is going to be a complicated one. Just can't take a meat ax to it, although I would love to."
• Michael Tuffin, CEO of AHIP, which represents health insurers, contends that disrupting Medicaid coverage could raise costs elsewhere and weaken chronic-disease prevention.
• We told you over the weekend about the testy town halls that House Republicans are facing back home. One of them, Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), told CNN's Manu Raju on Monday that the GOP could do a better job of showing "compassion": "I think we have to have really good conversations between the DOGE and Congress [about] the impact on people who have real consequences for their families."

What they're saying: Administration officials say Trump already has disrupted more in 37 days than most experts thought was possible. That is true. But most of the past month's wall-to-wall coverage has focused on bites that wouldn't add up to the meal that he's promised.

• Musk told Hannity: "If we don't solve the deficit, there won't be money for medical care." So Musk, who has spent his career defying bearish predictions, is now working his greatest puzzle of all.

The bottom line: Neil Irwin reminds us of the old line that the U.S. government consists of a military attached to an insurance company. In big-picture terms, that's pretty true.

• Go deeper: DOGE math questions, by Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown.

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei wrote this column for Finish Line, our evening newsletter:

We're flooded with reader feedback on covering politics in this wild era. It ranges from calling me a "Beta Soy Boy" who should have been aborted to a soulless suck-up, wittingly enabling tyranny.

• I can confidently say: The truth sits in between!

Why it matters: Here's the shocker: Most people, even caustic critics, ask thoughtful questions about why and how we do what we do in terms of our coverage. This Finish Line is my stab at demystifying it a bit.

Our North Star: Readers first.

• Those were the first two words of our Axios Manifesto nearly eight years ago, and they've shaped every tough decision ever since. It's a great gut check: What helps our readers get smarter, faster on the most consequential topics?

This star led us to break with most traditional media companies on three important points:

1. No editorial page, ever. Opinion pieces drive a lot of traffic — and therefore a lot of ad revenue and subscribers — for our competitors. But we felt it was confusing for readers to have to differentiate between an opinion piece and a serious news piece emanating from the same institution. So we have no opinion section.
2. No popping off on social media. We ask anybody who works for Axios, whether they're on the editorial side or any other part of the business, not to express their political leanings in public settings, including social media. We felt this was one small step to persuade the persuadables that we're trying to get to the closest approximation of the truth without putting our thumbs on the scale. We're imperfect but quite good on this score.
3. Smart BREVITY. We ask every reporter to fully buy into both the "Smart" and "Brevity" parts of our journalism. This is designed to be respectful of your time and intelligence. It's a big differentiator from more traditional media companies. We put every new writer and editor through a Smart Brevity Boot Camp to get this right.

This new environment is different in two substantial ways:

1. Fragmentation. We've written extensively about how all of us are breaking off into different information ecosystems based on age, interests, politics and jobs. This means Axios needs to deepen its relationship with our core readers AND look for new ways to engage open-minded readers elsewhere.

• One example: Posting our stories aggressively on X. Elon Musk and I had a spirited exchange about the value of traditional reporting. (I inalterably support it. He's inalterably skeptical of traditional media.) But Axios wants our content where smart, curious readers congregate — and X is inarguably the top platform for tens of millions of them.

2. War on media. Truth is, President Trump consumes and talks to legacy media more than any president we can think of. Trump will do more press avails in a month than President Biden did in a year. Axios' Zachary Basu traveled with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on last week's Europe swing.

• But Trump and his allies are suing media companies over coverage, freezing out AP from covering him inside the Oval Office or Air Force One, and suspending subscriptions to many publications. So it gets tense.

We signed a letter protesting Trump's decision to bar AP reporters from the Oval Office and Air Force One, after the newswire's style guidelines stuck with calling it the Gulf of Mexico rather than Trump's renamed Gulf of America. We simply think neither party should bully a free media over its words or stories. We also believe it's unwise and dangerous not to confidently allow seasoned reporters access. Both parties should invite serious scrutiny: It makes your ideas, and the country, stronger.

• But in general, Axios will speak for Axios. We aren't legacy media — in fact, we bolted legacy media to start new companies for a new era. We cherish our relationship with you, the reader, and will be transparent with you on controversial topics. It's in our DNA.
• Some of you were pissed that we broke with AP on the actual Gulf debate. Our style is "Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from Gulf of Mexico)." Critics saw this as caving into the White House. But to us, it was easy to simply follow the North Star of being reader-first. If you go to Google Maps, Apple Maps or government websites, that body of water is called Gulf of America. So we just give the exact state of play without putting on the jersey of one side or the other.

What to expect from Axios: We'll cover every topic — from Trump to AI — clinically and unemotionally, like a doctor. We simply want to give you the facts and insights to make better decisions and live better lives.

Our ask: Don't assume every story we write or decision we make is because we're morons or corrupt or MAGA lovers or liberal lovers. Just ask. We try to respond to every email. If you hit our publisher, Nick Johnston ([email protected]) about any of our policies, I guarantee you a timely response.

• Keep the feedback coming: [email protected]. But go light on the Soy Boy crap.

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Whether you admire — or abhor — President Trump's boundary-busting first month in office (today = Day 30), it's important to see with clear eyes what's truly stretching the law and shaking long-held traditions of White House occupants before him.

Why it matters: As we've written before, every "unprecedented" move becomes a new precedent for future presidents. Trump supporters should expect Democratic presidents in the future to use the same new tactics and legal interpretations against them. So understanding each move matters.

The big picture: U.S. presidents face very few restraints. They're free of conflict of interest laws, enjoy the presumption of immunity in all official acts, and have wide latitude to impose their agenda.

• So it's worth paying attention when Trump says, as he did over the weekend on Truth Social and X: "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law."
• That followed Vice President Vance saying on X: "Judges aren't allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." Vance's comment is technically correct. But when taken together, the quotes suggest a belief there are few practical or legal restraints on a president. This isn't a new theory: Several Republican-appointed members of the Supreme Court have long held very elastic views of presidential power.
• Also important to note: Trump did promise in the Oval Office, a few days before his post about saving the country, that he'll always abide by court rulings — "and we'll appeal."

So after one month in office and a dizzying amount of rhetoric and real action, what has Trump done that truly pulls America into uncharted waters? (This is our attempt to help readers sift out the hyperbolic reactions, and instead focus on legitimate boundary-busting actions worthy of deeper reflection.)

1. Claiming power clearly granted to Congress. This might seem like a nerdy social studies argument, but it's massive in consequence. The Constitution clearly gives Congress the power to allow and then set spending for the federal government. Take it away, and Congress is left as a weakened branch of government.

• Trump has dismantled USAID ... moved to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ... tried to freeze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans ... targeted at least 20,000 federal jobs ... and on Tuesday signed an executive order to rein in independent agencies by declaring that "all executive branch officials and employees are subject to his supervision." The order is "a further challenge to congressional authority," The Wall Street Journal notes, and "may conflict with the autonomy Congress has granted agencies such as the FTC, the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the National Labor Relations Board."
• The Supreme Court, one dominated by conservatives in 1975, ruled unanimously that a president couldn't "impound" congressionally authorized funds, as President Richard Nixon had tried to do.
• Congress could stymie presidential actions like this. But this Congress, controlled by Republicans, is ceding its power to check Trump.

2. Rewriting an actual Constitutional amendment. Trump is already locked in a court fight after seeking to unilaterally rewrite — again by executive order — the 14th Amendment, which grants birthright citizenship to those born here.

• Trump wants to exclude babies born to mothers who are in the country without authorization. Four federal judges have blocked this executive order. This one is likely headed to the Supreme Court.

3. Firing watchdogs. President Trump has fired a lot of people fast, following through on a campaign promise. He has wide latitude to staff the federal government as he sees fit.

• But his abrupt sacking of more than a dozen inspectors generals (IGs) appears to violate the law stating he must give 30 days' notice.  Again, this might sound nerdy and technical. But IGs were put in place to investigate — independently — "waste, fraud and abuse." Imagine if every new president, instead of leaving experienced IGs in place, simply ousts them and puts in loyalists instead. That is the precedent that could be set here.

4. Empowering Elon. Trump and MAGA supporters love the most inventive business mind of the 21st century rifling through agency budgets and databases to cut spending. 

• But Musk and DOGE are deep in uncharted waters by gaining access to personal data, and by operating with minimal vetting. Imagine future presidents letting friends set up inside the government, and secretly get the power to see your most sensitive information while they help govern.

5. Profiting from the presidency. This isn't illegal. But it defies a long history of unspoken presidential behavior. Most presidents avoided any actual — or perception of — commingling of their presidential power with personal business deals. Former President Biden took a public beating from Trump and his supporters after it was revealed Biden's son and brother profited off his name and actions.

• Three days before taking office, Trump launched a cryptocurrency that, on paper, was worth as much as $50 billion for the Trump family, depending on how you count coins not yet released to market. (Most of the meme coin's value has been erased since then.) No limits keep foreign leaders, or anyone seeking influence, from buying coins to benefit the Trump family.
• As The New York Times reported this week, Trump held an Oval Office meeting to help boost a merger between the PGA and LIV pro golf behemoths. Trump's family is a major LIV financial partner.

6. DOJ dictates. Trump supporters seem jazzed by, or at least cool with, more than a half-dozen seasoned Justice Department lawyers quitting instead of helping to kill the corruption indictment of New York Mayor Eric Adams. Trump apparently wants to free Adams to help the administration crack down on immigration, which he can't do from court or jail.

• This specific case is unprecedented on its face. This many top U.S. lawyers quitting en masse hasn't happened since the infamous "Saturday Night Massacre" under President Richard Nixon 51 years ago. It begs the question: Will MAGA be cool if the next Democratic president forces Justice officials to do his or her bidding — or quit?

Reality check: Trump has every right to do and say everything unfolding overseas, from taunting Canada to belittling Europe to freezing Ukraine out of his war negotiations.

• All presidents are free to conduct foreign policy as they see fit. He can also rid his government of DEI staff and offices, and fire as many unprotected government workers as he chooses. There's a difference between shattering expectations and shattering laws.

Between the lines: Alex Pfeiffer, White House principal deputy communications director, told us everything Trump is doing is democratic — "in fact, the most democratic thing possible. President Trump won the election, made promises in the election and is enacting those promises."

• "Elon is a White House employee," Pfeiffer added. "He and political appointees act on behalf of the president to do the things voters voted for. ... Letting bureaucrats run everything is the opposite of democracy."
• "President Trump is restoring control to the people ... swiftly enacting what was voted on," Pfeiffer continued. "And that is as democratic as it gets."

Our thought bubble: Axios tries to cover Trump's actions seriously and clinically without overreacting to random social media posts, given his penchant for ephemeral provocation.

• Our aim: Arm readers with facts and context for making sense of the velocity of news and change.

The bottom line: The first Trump term seemed unprecedented, and sometimes was. This one is authentically unprecedented in totality.

• Shoot us questions you have for future columns: [email protected], [email protected].

Go deeper: Startup America — our column on Trump's Day 1.

Ask NFL executives their biggest fear, and it has nothing to do with fans, players or TV rights. It's drones — which are hard for authorities to track, and almost impossible to stop if ever unleashed on an open-air stadium.

• Ask U.S. intelligence experts their biggest fears, and you'll inevitably hear dire warnings of drone swarms — domestic or foreign — targeting American soil.
• Probe deeper, and you'll learn that the vast majority of these drones are made by China — and, therefore, conceivably controllable by America's greatest adversary. TikTok is accused of being a security threat — but it can't spy or drop bombs.

Why it matters: Look at the skies of Syria, Russia — or, many squinted and said, New Jersey — and the future of terrorism and warfare is on vivid display. Drones gather intelligence, guide artillery and shape battle plans.

Between the lines: The NFL's fear is based on gaps in authority among local, state and federal authorities. A league source calls the lack of coordination is "potentially dangerous and unsustainable."

• "Laws, regulations and enforcement mechanisms have not caught up with the technology and proliferation of these machines," the source said.
• "The general distrust in institutions, and general paranoia about the 'deep state,' makes unidentified flying objects that dwell over our communities particularly menacing. Are we being watched? If so, by whom? And they sound like swarms of insects."

State of play: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt began her first briefing by confirming something that had long been apparent — last fall's feverish drone spottings in the Northeast were mostly sightings of ... airplanes.

• "After research and study, the drones that were flying over New Jersey in large numbers were authorized to be flown by the FAA for research and various other reasons," she said, citing news she'd been told "directly" by President Trump in the Oval Office, and echoing what the Biden administration had contended.
• The epidemic of coverage tailed off with the Christmas holidays, as people moved on and the planes kept landing. "Many of these drones were also hobbyists — recreational, and private individuals that enjoy flying drones," Leavitt added. "In time, it got worse, due to curiosity.  This was not the enemy."

Reality check: Amid the goofy sightings, the true domestic drone threat is under-discussed, defense executives tell Colin Demarest, author of Axios Future of Defense.

• The Pentagon is spending big to dominate drone defense with drone-neutralizing technology, including "meaningfully improved" protections against small drones.
• Drones' bloody consequences are apparent in the Middle East, where the U.S. Army has deployed drone zappers in a rush to defend troops.

How it works: Dropping drones is no easy task. It requires spotting, identifying, tracking and intercepting, Colin explains.

• That last part can be accomplished with a multimillion-dollar missile (looking at you, Red Sea), bullets, electronic interference or something as primitive as a net or cage.
• Drone swarms only complicate this: What's a decoy? What's deadly? Who's the target? Which do you shoot?

What to watch: Jonathan Moneymaker, CEO of BlueHalo, a next-generation defense firm based in Arlington, Virginia, told Colin that as threats escalate from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), as the FAA calls drones, "our legislation to protect the homeland has not kept pace."

• Moneymaker said there's a critical need to empower local authorities, through the Department of Homeland Security, to deploy countermeasures around airports, power stations, military installations and surrounding communities. "We have the technology to be ready," he said. "We need the legislation to catch up. We will either address this before we suffer a major drone attack in [the U.S.], or we will address it after — but we will address it."

Get Axios Future of Defense, Colin Demarest's weekly newsletter.

President Trump and Elon Musk, arguably the two most unorthodox and influential American leaders of the 21st century, are practicing and fine-tuning a fused theory of governing power:

• Masculine maximalism.

Why it matters: Trump and Musk believe powerfully in maximalist action and language — which is being carried out by strong (mostly) white men — as blunt, uncompromising instruments to prove new limits both to power and what's possible.

• "Fix Bayonets," Steve Bannon, a first-term Trump official whose "War Room" podcast makes him one of the most widely followed outside MAGA voices, texted us. "We are 'Burning Daylight' — short window to get this done."

Trump, first in business and then politics, and Musk, first in business and now politics, are feeding off each other's natural instincts to do, say and operate by their own new rules.

• These instincts made them rich, famous and impervious to traditional rules, norms and even laws. Their success makes dissuasion by others futile, administration officials tell us.
• Trump and Musk view masculinity quite similarly: tough-guy language, macho actions, irreverent, crude — and often unmoved by emotionalism, empathy or restraint.

The big picture: So much has happened so fast, in so little time, that it's hard to measure what matters most in the first 24 days of the Trump presidency (not even a month yet!). But stepping way back and appraising the totality of actions, the biggest shift is the instant imposition of this new power theory across all of government and the Republican Party:

• There's no opposition to this maximalist approach among Trump's staff or major MAGA media voices. And it's extremely limited among Republican lawmakers: Some have privately expressed concerns about DOGE, and winced at Vice President Vance's salvo about judges not being "allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." But even most GOP senators who expressed initial reservations about Cabinet picks have turned supportive.

Here's the Trump-Musk formula:

1. Power asserted, power claimed: Trump and Musk, much like they did in the private sector, set their own new limits of authority by stating them emphatically and acting aggressively. Trump and Musk have moved to cut at least 10,000 federal workers, while vowing "large-scale reductions in force (RIFs)" as part of "workforce reform" ... and offered deferred resignation packages to more than 2 million federal workers. (A federal judge on Wednesday let the "buyout" program proceed. 75,000 workers have taken the deal.)

• Trump and Musk sought to freeze federal grants and loans that total in the trillions ... and targeted "hundreds of billions" in fraudulent federal spending. Musk's DOGE gained access to Treasury's highly sensitive payment system. Trump threatened a global trade war ... stripped security details from his own former secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and other former officials ... revoked the security clearance of former President Biden, ending his classified intelligence briefings ... and fired more than a dozen inspectors general — watchdogs who root out Executive Branch abuse.
• Trump's Pentagon deployed active-duty troops to the Southwest border. Trump's Justice Department pushed federal prosecutors to drop corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. And Trump pardoned former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who went to prison for political corruption.
• Trump, after campaigning as an American First hardliner, often sounds like limitless expansionist: saying the U.S. would "take over" Gaza ... and pushing to buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state and take back the Panama Canal.

2. Precedents are for chumps: Both think conventional, polite, rule-following CEOs and leaders are suckers and conformists. They believe wimps and posers play by the rules, worry about hurt feelings or damaged lives, and seek consensus. So far, Trump and Musk have every reason to feel vindicated: Most Republicans in Congress have sat by idly, or applauded gleefully, as the two laid claim to congressional powers of the purse and scrutinizing Cabinet picks.

• Trump and Musk are freezing programs and firing federal employees — with scant scrutiny and little transparency. A Wall Street Journal editorial points out that Trump deliberately incited legal challenges with his executive order ending birthright citizenship, and by firing a member of the National Labor Relations Board: "Trump believes he'll win on both issues because he thinks previous Supreme Court rulings were wrongly decided." The Journal says Trump is on new legal ground by targeting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and USAID — both of which were established by Congress.

3. Let men be men: Yes, there are some powerful women around Trump — led by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles.

• But the vast majority of the public and private action is carried about by aggressive, white men, including Musk and his all-male DOGE posse; Stephen Miller, a White House deputy chief of staff who also is homeland security adviser and immigration lead; and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News star and decorated Army combat veteran who's bringing some of Trump's most disruptive dreams to life.

4. Humiliate the humbled: Both Trump and Musk use public appearances and social media posts to bully and pummel critics across politics, media and culture. They scoff at calls for humility and grace when blessed with power. In the case of transgender people, they want to restore "biological truth" and "the immutable biological reality of sex," as a Day 1 executive order put it, by making it "the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female."

• Both men like to provoke outrage — and outrageous responses. That makes Trump and Musk the center of the national conversation — and baits hyperventilating critics into outrageous responses. Trump and Musk have followed through on their promise to decimate DEI, targeting hundreds of such jobs. The Free Press wrote that the Trump administration, "and many of its highest-profile supporters, are fueling the idea that any minority with a job might not actually deserve it. These people see DEI everywhere."

5. Fused styles, fused worldview: As captured by Vance's AI speech in Paris this week, the most surprising twist in the Trump governing agenda reflects a fusion not just of the Trump and Musk styles but also their worldviews — nationalism with techno-optimism.

• Trump was indifferent or outright hostile to many Big Tech companies in his first term and most of his campaign. But now: Quick, vast AI expansion sits at the heart of his evolving economic agenda and philosophy. At the same time, Musk has been a vocal champion of nationalism. They're of one style, and increasingly of one shared mind and ideology.

Behind the scenes: Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, MAGA's youth wing, and host of one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — told us the "flood the zone" aggressiveness of the administration's first month will only increase as more top officials get confirmed and rolling. "This is just setting the foundation," Kirk said. "He's set a pace and said: My team can see the tempo I want."

• Kirk, who is very close to Trump, told us Trump's maximalist instincts are being amplified by his battle-hardened staff and Cabinet. "You have an entire Avengers team of people able to fulfill the president's wishes and orders," Kirk said. "When you're in exile for a couple of years, and have people writing your political eulogy, you enter with increased motivation and energy."
• Kirk, whose social media feeds are one of the most vivid reflections (and drivers) of MAGA sentiment, said his callers and followers are thrilled with what they're getting: "They knew he was serious. But they didn't know they'd get it so quickly, decisively and declaratively."

Reality check: Trump is very intentionally testing the limits of executive power. The WSJ editorial contends: "Trump may be wrong, but there is no constitutional crisis as the cases make their way through the courts."

What to watch: Democrats are beyond baffled on how to deal with Trump, Musk and maximalist power simultaneously. The opposition lacks anyone with a remotely similar social media and traditional media star power, or a coherent legislative way to slow or stop them.

• So Democrats are down to betting on the courts — or a future maximalist public backlash to maximalism.

Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."

• Join Jim & Mike next Wednesday for a webinar on "How Trump Thinks" — with special guest Marc Caputo, one of the best-wired Trump reporters — as part of our AM Executive Briefing membership series. Subscribe here.

On the 15th day, he proclaimed Gaza ours.

Why it matters: There are two ways to view President Trump's epic, historic, shockingly unexpected declaration Tuesday evening that the U.S. should seize, control, develop and hold "a long-term ownership position" in war-destroyed Gaza.

1. It was a wild bluff — or bluster — to gain leverage in the Middle East. It's like threats of trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico — all-consumingly controversial, yet instantly ephemeral. This strikes most Republicans as the right interpretation.
2. The other: It fuses several Trump obsessions — his hope for a grand Middle East peace deal, his belief Gaza will be a hellhole for decades to come, and his genuine intrigue about developing the seaside land. U.S. officials tell us Trump's words were premeditated, and mirror ideas he floated to some staff and family members privately.

What he said: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip," Trump said, reading from notes in the East Room during the first formal news conference of his presidency, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. "We'll own it, and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."

• Asked later who he envisions living in a rebuilt Gaza, Trump replied: "I envision the world people living there — the world's people. I think you'll make that into an international, unbelievable place."
• Trump, channeling his inner developer, added: "We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal. And I don't want to be cute, I don't want to be a wise guy, but: the Riviera of the Middle East. ... This could be so magnificent. ... We'll make sure that it's done world-class — it'll be wonderful for the people."

The big picture: Like everything with Trump, his views and motivations are gray despite being expressed in stark black and white.

• "He's moving the goalposts of crazy," a longtime adviser told us. "This time around, he's not intimidated by headlines or pundits: He's gonna throw out there whatever he feels like throwing out there."
• Trump's message to the Middle East, in the words of this adviser: "I can make it a lot worse for you guys, or you can come up with a better plan."

Reality check: There are massive obstacles to Trump's vision.

• The human toll would be staggering: 2 million Palestinians call Gaza home and haven't consented to being forced out of their territory, despite the colossal destruction from 16 months of war.
• The leaders of Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected Trump's plan to resettle those Palestinians on their territory. Not to mention the broader regional consensus, including in Saudi Arabia, that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state — not an American one.

Human rights groups have already condemned the proposal as ethnic cleansing.

• Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, but he left the door open last evening to sending U.S. troops to Gaza "if necessary." Left unmentioned was what would be done about Hamas, which remains a force in Gaza and has recruited 10,000-15,000 fighters since the start of the war, according to U.S. intelligence.
• Trump's "America First" allies in the Republican Party are quietly raising their eyebrows, especially with his administration actively in the process of dismantling USAID for using taxpayer dollars overseas.

Between the lines: People want to put a frame around Trump's most dramatic moves or public statements.

• But everyone on the inside knows it's Trump being Trump — feeling wholly confident, unrestrained, liberated to say and propose whatever pops into his mind.

The Gaza idea is a collision of three private Trump views:

1. He believes a big peace deal, with the Saudis at the center, is doable.
2. He was genuinely moved by the scope of the destruction of Gaza, and the realization it could take decades to rebuild.
3. He and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, see this as authentic prime real estate — "waterfront property" that could draft off all the power and money flowing through the Middle East.

But Trump seemed to undermine his hopes for a broader Middle East deal. The Saudis were furious with both Trump's idea, and his claim they would accept a deal that does not include a Palestinian state, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump said the Gaza overture was Trump's own idea, and he had been thinking about it for at least two months, Barak reports.

• A U.S. official said Trump presented the plan because he came to the conclusion that no one else had any new ideas for Gaza.

The bottom line: Chaos isn't an accident. Trump and his aides know that the tsunami of ideas, executive orders and proclamations makes it hard for opponents to unite around a single message.

• Think about you or your friends: Are you more intrigued or worked up by all his controversial nominees ... or Greenland ... or trade wars ... or USAID ... or Elon Musk ... or Ukraine ... or South Africa ... or TikTok ... or a new sovereign wealth fund ... or Trump's own crypto? No human can process this much he-did-what news this fast.

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: Dispatch from Axios' Barak Ravid.

There's an unspoken, ugly rule of American politics: Do unto the other what they have done unto you.

• Simply put: Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party — if they prove effective.

Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.

• That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
• They did it to us. So we'll do it, too — on steroids.

The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.

• We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.

Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:

1. Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation — payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
2. Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
3. Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure — but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
4. Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed — but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
5. Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could — but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office — with paper value that reached tens of billions — with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.

What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts — so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power? 

• Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years — Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.

Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.

• Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
• Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack — though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.

The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use — and expand — many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."

America has never witnessed so many people purged or punished by an incoming president so quickly. White House sources tell us this is just the beginning.

• On Friday night, a Defense Department memo said four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — will have to move out of their longtime workspace on Correspondents' Corridor in the Pentagon, an unprecedented move, under a new Annual Media Rotation Program for Pentagon Press Corps.
• "Hope those hit pieces on Pete were worth it," a source close to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but not involved in the decision-making, told us.

Why it matters: President Trump long promised to oust and punish people his administration deemed political enemies or unfair critics. His administration is doing this faster, deeper and wider than many in Washington expected.

• Democrats on the Hill are warning that Trump is sometimes acting outside the law — and without regard for government services Americans rely on, and for the American tradition that a president must be subject to checks, balances, scrutiny and criticism.

The big picture: The danger in moving so fast, so wide is losing vital, seasoned talent in hard-to-fill, essential governmental roles. It sets a precedent for future presidents to quickly remake the government in their image or ideological mold — and extend the power of the presidency.

• Trump advisers see this much differently, of course. They argue the government is filled with anti-Trump activists and bureaucratic lifers who can be eliminated with little cost. The depth and breadth of actions in the first two weeks show the results.

Zoom out: In the first 12 days of Trump II, the president also revoked clearances and government security protection for several former officials.

• In a move with city-by-city repercussions across America, Trump temporarily froze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans. A second federal judge, in Rhode Island, on Friday ordered a temporary pause.
• Trump also offered about 2 million federal employees the chance to resign and get paid through Sept. 30 under a "deferred resignation deal."

Zoom in: This is unprecedented territory for Washington governance. Take the early strikes against the FBI and its role in investigating and prosecuting those involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

• Not only did Trump take the unprecedented step of pardoning virtually all involved, including violent criminals. His team is hunting down those involved in the probe, ousting many. Some of these prosecutors and officials didn't choose the case but were assigned to do it, did their job, and moved on.

Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove identified more than a half-dozen FBI senior executives who were ordered to retire or be fired by Monday, AP reports.

• Bove asked for the names and titles of FBI employees who worked on investigations into the Capitol riot — a list the bureau's acting director said could number in the thousands.
• "Forcing out both agents and prosecutors who worked on Jan. 6 cases would amount to a wide-scale assault on the Justice Department," the N.Y. Times notes (gift link).

Then consider the Friday night announcement about Pentagon workspace for top news organizations. Every administration has the option of who gets seats and who doesn't.

• But the message to mainstream media was unmistakable and not masked. The Pentagon said invitations will go out to the New York Post, One America News Network and Breitbart (Trump-friendly outlets), plus Huffington Post (which doesn't have a Pentagon correspondent and didn't request a space).

NBC News said in a statement: "We're disappointed by the decision to deny us access to a broadcasting booth at the Pentagon that we've used for many decades. Despite the significant obstacles this presents to our ability to gather and report news in the national public interest, we will continue to report with the same integrity and rigor NBC News always has."

• NPR said in a statement to Axios: "This decision interferes with the ability of millions of Americans to directly hear from Pentagon leadership, and with NPR's public interest mission to serve Americans who turn to our network of local public media stations in all 50 states. NPR will continue to report with vigor and integrity on the transformation this Administration has promised to deliver. NPR urges the Pentagon to expand the offices available to press within the building so that all outlets covering the Pentagon receive equal access."
• N.Y. Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander said in a statement to Axios: "This move to expel The Times and other independent, fact-based news outlets from the Pentagon's press spaces is a concerning development. The Department of Defense has the largest discretionary budget in the government, millions of Americans in uniform under its direction, and control of a vast arsenal funded by taxpayers. The Times is committed to covering the Pentagon fully and fairly. Steps designed to impede access are clearly not in the public interest."

The bottom line: Moves like this are designed to send signals and make plain the consequences of tough coverage.

• Go deeper: Some federal websites go dark.

Editor's note: Updates with NPR, N.Y. Times statements.

Over just eight hours on Inauguration Day, Presidents Trump and Biden forever stretched the immense public and private power of the presidency to once-unimaginable dimensions:

• Presidents can preemptively pardon family and friends in case of any accusation of grift or crimes.
• Presidents can pardon violent criminals convicted of sedition and violence in defense of their politics.

• Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry.
• Oh, and they can do this with the presumption of presidential immunity.
• America doesn't have a king. But we're dancing close to king-like power.

Why it matters: Presidents could always pardon, profit or protect friends, family and allies. It just never has been done this broadly, this brazenly, this quickly. And with this much of a public shrug.

The big picture: So much of modern political and presidential power flows from precedent and imagination: doing unto others what the predecessors did — or did to them. And then stretching the hell out of it.

Biden, under the guise of protecting his family from unfair political and legal persecution, preemptively pardoned his brothers James and Frank Biden, his sister Valerie Biden Owens, and John Owens and Sara Biden, the spouses of Valerie and James. This is unprecedented.

• "It's disgusting," Bill Daley — a longtime Biden friend who was White House chief of staff under President Obama — told us. It "confirms that there are serious concerns about culpability." Daley said the Bidens will never wipe this "stain" from the former president's legacy.
• Trump blasted the pardons, moments before offering his own to approximately 1,500 people convicted or charged in the Jan. 6  attack on the Capitol — including violent criminals who attacked police officers.

Trump also pardoned Enrique Tarrio, the fascist Proud Boy leader convicted of seditious conspiracy — and serving a 22-year sentence in federal prison — for coordinating the attack on the Capitol from outside Washington.

• Trump also commuted the sentences of 14 extremist members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers convicted for plotting to violently overthrow the U.S. government and keep Trump in office.
• The sweeping acts of clemency stunned Washington and contradicted prior statements from Republicans — including Vice President JD Vance — that violent offenders should not be pardoned.

Between the lines: Biden, who earlier pardoned his son, Hunter, basically offered blanket immunity to family members who might be accused of profiting from this presidency.

Trump tested new limits by launching a surprise meme coin, $TRUMP, that vaulted him to crypto billionaire status two days before being inaugurated.

• Crypto insiders fear that $TRUMP — as well as the hastily launched $MELANIA meme coin — could destroy credibility that the scam-plagued industry has spent years trying to build.
• Remember, Trump once was a crypto skeptic and converted only during the 2024 campaign. He then became a beneficiary, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, of the industry's open wallet. What an ROI!

Most Americans don't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals.

• Thanks to the Supreme Court, presidents also enjoy the presumption of immunity for "official acts" if they're ever accused of crossing any legal lines.

So Trump and his family conceivably could make billions through deals worldwide, new businesses and new currencies, funding the family — or even a political movement — for a generation. Their only limitation is imagination.

• America has drifted into uncharted waters in the rule of law. Trump and future presidents can test the limits with a presumption of success. And Biden's final act of pardons show Democrats have lost a lot of ability to cry foul.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Capitol Hill Tuesday when asked about Trump's blanket Jan. 6 pardons: "We said all along that Biden opened the door on this."

We'll leave you with this: Now that presidential power is so broad, so deep, so uncontainable, why forfeit it? Well, here's an apparent loophole in the constitutional limit on two presidential terms:

• Trump or future presidents could simply run for a de facto third term — as the vice presidential nominee, with the understanding they will take power back once elected. That's but one of the once-unthinkable scenarios that seem more thinkable than ever.

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Think of the U.S. government as a once-dominant, lean, high-flying company that grew too big, too bloated, too bureaucratic, too unimaginative.

• It's Kodak or Circuit City — a dominant player caught napping amid an obvious technological transformation.

Why it matters: This snooze-and-lose reality is partly driving the governing and economic pace, tone and policies of President Trump's White House, officials tell us.

A theory that binds Trump with leading innovators, especially Elon Musk, is that you can bring tech and business talent and techniques together to take a wrecking ball to broken ideas and/or processes or entire agencies.

• This isn't Trump's instinctual motivation, aides say. He wants a strong stock market, slower inflation, low joblessness, the holy trinity of economic indicators.

But Musk, Marc Andreessen and a growing chorus of entrepreneurs and tech CEOs are fusing their "founder mode" mentality with Trump's desire for fast growth.

• You have Silicon Valley's best and brightest battling for bigger roles in reshaping government. Almost every CEO wants a slice of the action.

The optimistic scenario for the Trump presidency: It'll jar lawmakers and the public into realizing how a slow, bloated, bureaucratic government handcuffs and hurts America in the vital race for AI, new energy sources, space and overall growth.

Reality check: Some of this is motivated by politics, some by genuine enthusiasm to serve, and some by naked self-interest. Government will help pick the winners and losers in chips, AI, energy, crypto, satellites and space. So, it would be CEO malpractice not to try to shape the outcome. A seat at the table could be worth billions.

• Whatever the motivation, the genuine thesis is directionally correct: America's government is so vast, so complex, so indebted that it makes fast, smart growth exponentially more complicated.

Whether you're a skeptic or fan, consider not what a policy wonk would do, but rather how a tech CEO would shake things up if their company was deep in debt and slow in execution.

1. Simplify, simplify, simplify. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who recently dined with Trump, loves to tell how his company rediscovered its mojo with a Year of Efficiency (2023) where he declared: "Leaner is better." Meta cut workforce, managerial layers, and decision-making obstacles — then went all-in on AI. The results were magical, he says.
2. Cut costs. The U.S. debt is too staggering to comprehend. It's $36 trillion — and grows $1 trillion every 100 days. Another way to look at it: America spends more on defense than the next 10 biggest nations — and yet we spend more on debt than defense! So cutting government, now or later, is unavoidable.
3. Bet big. You can't cut your way out of this crisis. The only palatable solution: explosive growth. Not 2% or 3%. Twice that. Marc Andreessen has argued publicly this rate of growth is possible if you stack government attention and staff correctly. The big bets would be on AI, space, new domestic energy sources, crypto, and U.S. businesses doing this work at home. GDP growth of 1% would amount to about $290 billion.
4. Break stuff. Musk bluntly warned before the election that big cuts and change in government inevitably cause "temporary pain." Politicians typically hate inflicting any pain on voters — hence, your deficits! But any business leader who shuts down products or lays off people knows it's the price of growth.
5. Ignore the whiners. What holds back CEOs and political leaders is the same thing: fear, fear of bad headlines or big revolts. But Trump's pain threshold is higher than anyone we've seen in public office. So you could see him enduring it if convinced it will juice his numbers. Musk is a living reminder that a lot of bad press does not equate to failure. Often, it's the opposite.

The other side: Robert Rubin, who was a co-senior partner at Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, wrote Friday in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that outsiders arriving in Washington need to "recognize how much they don't know about government and how different it can be from business." Rubin writes from experience that "government can't and shouldn't be run like a business."

• "The best way to make a successful transition to the public sector is to do so with humility," Rubin concludes. "The alternative, in many cases, is to have humility thrust upon you."

Architects of the leading generative AI models are abuzz that a top company, possibly OpenAI, in coming weeks will announce a next-level breakthrough that unleashes Ph.D.-level super-agents to do complex human tasks.

• We've learned that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — who in September dubbed this "The Intelligence Age," and is in Washington this weekend for the inauguration — has scheduled a closed-door briefing for U.S. government officials in Washington on Jan. 30.

Why it matters: The expected advancements help explain why Meta's Mark Zuckerberg and others have talked publicly about AI replacing mid-level software engineers and other human jobs this year.

"[P]robably in 2025," Zuckerberg told Joe Rogan 10 days ago, "we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code."

• "[O]ver time, we'll get to the point where a lot of the code in our apps, and including the AI that we generate, is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers," he added.

Between the lines: A super-agent breakthrough could push generative AI from a fun, cool, aspirational tool to a true replacement for human workers.

• Our sources in the U.S. government and leading AI companies tell us that in recent months, the leading companies have been exceeding projections in AI advancement.
• OpenAI this past week released an "Economic Blueprint" arguing that with the right rules and infrastructure investments, AI can "catalyze a reindustrialization across the country."

To be sure: The AI world is full of hype. Most people struggle now to use the most popular models to truly approximate the work of humans.

• AI investors have reason to hype small advancements as epic ones to juice valuations to help fund their ambitions.
• But sources say this coming advancement is significant. Several OpenAI staff have been telling friends they are both jazzed and spooked by recent progress. As we told you in a column Saturday, Jake Sullivan — the outgoing White House national security adviser, with security clearance for the nation's biggest secrets — believes the next few years will determine whether AI advancements end in "catastrophe."

The big picture: Imagine a world where complex tasks aren't delegated to humans. Instead, they're executed with the precision, speed, and creativity you'd expect from a Ph.D.-level professional.

• We're talking about super-agents — AI tools designed to tackle messy, multilayered, real-world problems that human minds struggle to organize and conquer.
• They don't just respond to a single command; they pursue a goal. Super agents synthesize massive amounts of information, analyze options and deliver products.

A few examples:

1. Build from scratch: Imagine telling your agent, "Build me new payment software." The agent could design, test and deliver a functioning product.
2. Make sense of chaos: For a financial analysis of a potential investment, your agent could scour thousands of sources, evaluate risks, and compile insights faster (and better) than a team of humans.
3. Master logistics: Planning an offsite retreat? The agent could handle scheduling, travel arrangements, handouts and more — down to booking a big dinner in a private room near the venue.

This isn't a lights-on moment — AI is advancing along a spectrum.

• These tools are growing smarter, sharper, and more integrated every day. "This will have huge applications for health, science and education," an AI insider tells us, "because of the ability to do deep research at a scale and scope we haven't seen — then the compounding effects translate into real productivity growth."

The other side: There are still big problems with generative AI's Achilles heel — the way it makes things up. Reliability and hallucinations are an even bigger problem if you're going to turn AI into autonomous agents: Unless OpenAI and its rivals can persuade customers and users that agents can be trusted to perform tasks without going off the rails, the companies' vision of autonomous agents will flop.

• Noam Brown, a top OpenAI researcher, tweeted Friday: "Lots of vague AI hype on social media these days. There are good reasons to be optimistic about further progress, but plenty of unsolved research problems remain."

What to watch: Two massive tectonic shifts are happening at once — President-elect Trump and MAGA are coming into power at the very moment AI companies are racing to approximate human-like or human-surpassing intelligence.

• Look for Congress to tackle a massive AI infrastructure bill to help spur American job growth in the data, chips and energy to power AI.
• And look for MAGA originals like Steve Bannon to argue that coming generations of AI will be job-killing evil for managerial, administrative and tech workers. The new models "will gut the workforce — especially entry-level, where young people start," Bannon told us.

Axios' Scott Rosenberg, managing editor for tech, contributed reporting.

Jake Sullivan — with three days left as White House national security adviser, with wide access to the world's secrets — called us to deliver a chilling, "catastrophic" warning for America and the incoming administration:

• The next few years will determine whether artificial intelligence leads to catastrophe — and whether China or America prevails in the AI arms race.

Why it matters: Sullivan said in our phone interview that unlike previous dramatic technology advancements (atomic weapons, space, the internet), AI development sits outside of government and security clearances, and in the hands of private companies with the power of nation-states.

• Underscoring the gravity of his message, Sullivan spoke with an urgency and directness that were rarely heard during his decade-plus in public life.

Somehow, government will have to join forces with these companies to nurture and protect America's early AI edge, and shape the global rules for using potentially God-like powers, he says.

• U.S. failure to get this right, Sullivan warns, could be "dramatic, and dramatically negative — to include the democratization of extremely powerful and lethal weapons; massive disruption and dislocation of jobs; an avalanche of misinformation."

Staying ahead in the AI arms race makes the Manhattan Project during World War II seem tiny, and conventional national security debates small. It's potentially existential with implications for every nation and company.

• To distill Sullivan: America must quickly perfect a technology that many believe will be smarter and more capable than humans. We need to do this without decimating U.S. jobs, and inadvertently unleashing something with capabilities we didn't anticipate or prepare for. We need to both beat China on the technology and in shaping and setting global usage and monitoring of it, so bad actors don't use it catastrophically. Oh, and it can only be done with unprecedented government-private sector collaboration — and probably difficult, but vital, cooperation with China.

"There's going to have to be a new model of relationship because of just the sheer capability in the hands of a private actor," Sullivan says.

• "What exactly that model looks like, whether it takes more the form of guardrails and regulation, and some forms of support from the government — or whether it involves something more ambitious than that — I will tell you that some of the smartest people I know who sit at the intersection of policy and technology are working through the answer to that question right now."
• This is beyond uncharted waters. It's an unexplored galaxy — "a new frontier," in his words. And one, he warns, where progress routinely exceeds projections in advancement. Progress is now pulsing in months, not years.

Between the lines: Sullivan leaves government believing this can be done well — and wants to work on this very problem in the private sector.

• "I personally am not an AI doomer," he says. "I am a person who believes that we can seize the opportunities of AI. But to do so, we've got to manage the downside risks, and we have to be clear-eyed and real about those risks."

The big picture: There's no person we know in a position of power in AI or governance who doesn't share Sullivan's broad belief in the stakes ahead.

• Regardless of what was said in public, every background conversation we had with President Biden's high command came back to China. Yes, they had concerns about the ethics, misinformation and job loss of AI. They talked about that. But they were unusually blunt in private: Every move, every risk was calculated to keep China from beating us to the AI punch. Nothing else matters, they basically said.
• That's why they applied export controls on the top-of-the-line semiconductors needed to power AI development — including in Biden's final days in office — and cut off supply of the hyper-sophisticated tools Chinese firms need to make such chips themselves.

That said, AI is like the climate: America could do everything right — but if China refuses to do the same, the problem persists and metastasizes fast. Sullivan said Trump, like Biden, should try to work with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on a global AI framework, much like the world did with nuclear weapons.

• There won't be one winner in this AI race. Both China and the U.S. are going to have very advanced AI. There'll be tons of open-source AI that many other nations will build on, too. Once one country has made a huge advance, others will match it soon after. What they can't get from their own research or work, they'll get from hacking and spying. (It didn't take long for Russia to match the A-bomb and then the H-bomb.)
• Marc Andreessen, who's intimately involved in the Trump transition and AI policy, told Bari Weiss of The Free Press his discussions with the Biden administration this past year were "absolutely horrifying," and said he feared the officials might strangle AI startups if left in power. His chief concern: Biden would assert government control by keeping AI power in the hands of a few big players, suffocating innovation.

Sullivan says a conversation he had with Andreessen struck a very different tone.

• "The point he was trying to register with me, which I thought was actually a very fair point, is: I think about downside risk; that's my job," Sullivan told us. "His point was: It should also be my job as national security adviser to think about how AI applications running on American rails globally is better than AI applications running on some other country's rails globally."

What's next: Trump seems to be full speed ahead on AI development. Unlike Biden, he plans to work in deep partnership with AI and tech CEOs at a very personal level. Biden talked to some tech CEOs; Trump is letting them help staff his government. The MAGA-tech merger is among the most important shifts of the past year.

• The super-VIP section of Monday's inauguration will be one for a time capsule: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg — who's attending his first inauguration, and is co-hosting a black-tie reception Monday night. The godfathers of tech are all desperate for access, a say, a partnership.
• Also in a spot of honor: TikTok CEO Shou Chew.

A fight might await: Steve Bannon and other MAGA originals believe AI is evil at scale — a job-killer for the very people who elected Trump. But for now, Bannon is a fairly lonely voice shouting against AI velocity. Trump and the AI gods hold the stage.

The bottom line: There's a reason our Behind the Curtain column writes obsessively about AI and its collision with government. We believe, based on conversations with AI's creators and experts, this dynamic will reshape politics, business and culture beyond most imaginations.

White House chief of staff Jeff Zients has an alarm set for 4:20 a.m. But he rarely needs it — he usually beats the buzzer by 10-15 minutes.

• His first two tasks of the day: 20 minutes of transcendental meditation ... followed by four shots of espresso. He does an hour of work, then a workout, and is in the office by 7:30 a.m.

Why it matters: Zients, 58, had a lucrative run as a CEO and chairman (The Advisory Board and Corporate Executive Board) and entrepreneur — including co-founding Call Your Mother, the D.C.-area bagel chain.

• He has stayed upbeat despite running a White House that is in the dumps and ending on a very downbeat note.

President Obama brought Zients into government as deputy budget director and the nation's first chief performance officer — before making him top economic adviser.

• Under President Biden, Zients had the high-stakes, thankless role of COVID response coordinator, helping lead the U.S. back. He took a nine-month break before returning as Biden's second chief of staff.

Over bagels from Call Your Mother in his West Wing corner office (with no computer — just cellphones), he wanted to share leadership lessons learned:

1. Discuss. Zients is allergic to tackling tough topics over text or email. "They obfuscate precision," he says. So he's known for one-word responses to emails. His favorite: "Discuss." That means to get around a table and dig in. "The hardest decisions require face-to-face conversations, not texts or emails that can blur the precision and debate required to solve the toughest problems," Zients told us.
2. The 7-minute meeting. That isn't literal — it's how colleagues playfully channel his approach. This is the art of how you "Discuss": His meetings tend to be quick, direct — 15 or 30 minutes. They're often preceded by tightly written memos — upper limit: three pages — so thinking is sharpened before shared. "Short memos in advance of meetings are key to efficient discussion and decision-making," he told us. "Shorter is harder than longer, as it forces rigorous analysis and requires precision." He's not a fan of "graphics for the sake of graphics."
3. Don't "admire the problem." Too many people too often stare at the complexity of an issue instead of solving the damn thing. In government, you don't always choose your problem. You did pick the solution. So get to it.
4. Dive into it. This is his go-to solution when a dirty-diaper issue lands on his desk. So many government leaders want to run away, often in fear. "When something is troubling you, don't fret it or deny it," Zients says. "Dive into it — it only gets better."
5. Execute, execute, execute. He says it so often it's stamped on a helmet, a gift from a staffer, that sits on the fireplace mantel in his White House office. Executing in government is a tremendous grind, so he delights in the nuts and bolts of managing. Zients pointed to Obamacare as a great example. Obama's crowning achievement almost died during the execution phase after the website powering it crashed. Zients led the team that fixed it.
6. Face into it. "You need the reps" to master crappy or tough situations, Zients says. His days are full of them. But the more you face them and solve them, the calmer and wiser you grow. He calls it "facing into the problem."
7. Build the team. "In the federal government, we don't spend enough time on recruiting, coaching and giving feedback," Zients says. "When you build and invest in a team of smart, diverse, and low-ego people who are in it for the right reasons and have each other's backs, you can weather any crisis and capture any opportunity."
8. Keep it sunny. "Leaders should always be optimistic," he says. "I'm not talking about blind optimism, but optimism coupled with a credible plan to get things done or solve the problem."

The bottom line: Zients says working in business first made him a better government leader because of the private sector's focus on the importance of teams — "from recruiting to coaching and focus on execution/getting stuff done."

• Little of that comes naturally in government. "There are pockets," Zients told us, "but not enough focus."

Axios' Hans Nichols contributed reporting.

Meta's Mark Zuckerberg has outlined a new template for companies to make up with President-elect Trump and MAGA.

Why it matters: Meta did this with a methodical striptease over nine days, capturing massive public and MAGA attention.

• "This is speaking Trump's love language," a transition source told us.

Zuckerberg had been considering some of the moves for years. Almost all had been in the works for months. But sources tell us Meta deliberately packaged them all up for detonation over nine days to maximize the pop for Trump.

• "It's hard to break through in this media environment," said a source familiar with the strategy. "It sends a signal."

Here's the Meta formula:

• Put a Trump friend on your board (Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White).
• Promote a prominent Republican as your chief global affairs officer (Joel Kaplan, succeeding liberal-friendly Nick Clegg, president of global affairs).
• Align your philosophy with Trump's on a big-ticket public issue (free speech over fact-checking).
• Announce your philosophical change on Fox News, hoping Trump is watching. In this case, he was. "Meta, Facebook, I think they've come a long way," Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago news conference, adding of Kaplan's appearance on the "Fox and Friends" curvy couch: "The man was very impressive."
• Take a big public stand on a favorite issue for Trump and MAGA (rolling back DEI programs).
• Amplify that stand in an interview with Fox News Digital. (Kaplan again!)
• Go on Joe Rogan's podcast and blast President Biden for censorship.
• And light up social media with all the fireworks.

Between the lines: Love it or hate it, the strategy seemed to work brilliantly. Trump praised Meta. Rogan hailed Zuck.

• House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who has aggressively investigated Big Tech, said he hopes other companies "follow the lead of X and Meta in upholding freedom of speech online."

Behind the scenes: After visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November, Zuckerberg decided to relax Meta's speech policies and "asked a small team to carry out his goals within weeks," The New York Times reported.

• Knowing the change would be contentious, Zuckerberg "assembled a team of no more than a dozen close advisers and lieutenants, including Joel Kaplan ... Kevin Martin, the head of U.S. policy; and David Ginsberg, the head of communications. Mr. Zuckerberg insisted on no leaks," The Times added.
• Zuckerberg was back at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, a day after taping with Rogan in Austin.

The big picture: Every company in America is watching. We can expect some to copy Zuckerberg — after Elon Musk showed the way.

• Shifts this fast are rare. And rarely isolated.

What we're watching: Backlash — internal and external — is already brewing.

• Training materials for Meta's new speech policies list examples of permissible attacks against various identity groups.
• Roy Austin Jr., who built and led a small civil rights team inside Meta beginning in 2021, announced Friday he was leaving the company.
• Biden criticized Zuckerberg's fact-checking reversal as "shameful" at a new conference Friday.

The bottom line: Alex Bruesewitz — CEO of X Strategies LLC, and trusted adviser to the Trump campaign on alternative media — told us companies are either "a. Finally recognizing that 'wokeness' is a cancer, or b. Strategically adapting to the political climate and pandering to Republicans now that we are in power."

• "Only time will tell which is the true motivation," Bruesewitz said. "Regardless, MAGA is winning and will continue to win!"

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

The media, our social media feeds and our most pessimistic friends fill us with doom and gloom stories. But by many measures, there's never been a better time to be alive in America. 

Why it matters: Yes, bad people are always doing bad things for bad reasons. It's called life. This column focuses on the Good Stuff: the undeniable trends that reveal a distinct edge for America, young people and this moment.

When your boozy uncle goes dark today, remind him and others:

1. There's no better place to start a business and rise to unthinkable heights doing what you choose to do. We have the best hospitals, colleges and technology centers.
2. You can think, say and worship as you please without fear of imprisonment. Faith might be fading, but the ability to practice it is unfettered.
3. The United States has the world's strongest military. We enjoy peace with our neighbors and the protection of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Our military is both the most feared — and most sought-after by other nations for assistance.
4. We're blessed with abundant natural resources — we can produce enough energy from the ground and skies to power ourselves for generations. In just eight years, the U.S. "has rocketed from barely selling any gas overseas to becoming the world's No. 1 supplier" — bolstering the economy and strengthening American influence abroad. (N.Y. Times)
5. We're still the place where people want to risk their lives to come live, work and raise a family.
6. The greatest inventions come from the magical animal spirits of American capitalism: freedom and entrepreneurial zest — hardwired into our souls and our national story. We enjoy a massive early lead to build the next great technology: generative artificial intelligence.
7. The United States is the world's longest-surviving democracy, which has remained steadfast, resilient and enduring through existential crises.
8. Young people are more optimistic than ever, earning more than ever, and able to make an instant difference in the workplace because of their tech savvy.
9. And Jim's favorite: Most people are normal. They don't watch cable food fights, or dunk on people on X, or say or do nasty things to others. They work hard, volunteer, help you shovel in a storm.

The bottom line: We're blessed, this and every holiday season, to have smart, engaged, thoughtful readers who trust us — and remind us when we fall short. Enjoy your family. Enjoy the holidays. Enjoy America.

This week's epic fight over funding the government captures the power — and flaws — of the new information ecosystem.

Why it matters: Elon Musk and his followers on X proved they dominate the Republican media industrial complex — using a digital revolt to kill a spending bill, and open the door to a government shutdown. That revolt was powered by some false information, tweeted with total self-certainty.

"We aren't just the media here now. We are also the government," Donald Trump Jr. tweeted yesterday to his 13 million followers.

• MAGA's online army now can assess "information rapidly & pressure our representatives to act in a manner that actually represents what we want," Don Jr. added. "They can't hide and do the bidding of swamp oligarchs anymore."

🖼️ The big picture: This reality highlights the difference between media (what people consume) and reporting (a set of standards for pursuing fact-based information). In the new world order, media and reporting are tossed together with a mix of truth, opinion, and nonsense.

• This helps explain the confusion that engulfs almost every real-time topic, from drones in the New Jersey skies to whether billions were stuffed into a spending bill for a new D.C. football stadium. (The bill banned the use of federal funds for the stadium.)

💡 Truth bomb: This is your present and future, and little can be done to stop it. A fragmented media means fragmented truths and standards.

• The winners are those who control the flow of information to the largest numbers of people — or the right people at the right moment on the right topic. Right now, Musk controls both for the incoming governing party.

This allowed Musk to tweetstorm (150+ posts) the defeat of the federal spending bill, while sharing some demonstrably false information — including the size of a proposed congressional pay raise (now dropped from the bill).

• Musk also reposted a false claim that the bill included $3 billion for a new NFL stadium in D.C. But the provision, also now stricken from the bill, merely transferred the site of the old RFK Stadium from the federal government to the District of Columbia.
• Musk said the original bill funded a bioweapons lab. It didn't.
• Musk reposted a claim the bill contained $60 billion for Ukraine, which it didn't appear to.

So when Musk tells X followers "You are the media," it's true they're part of his media. But that's different than declaring they're all reporters, trying to validate information before sharing it.

• That puts even more pressure on you as a news consumer to discern what and who you can trust for reliable, actionable information. It demands skepticism and patience when hot news hits fast.
• You need to be skeptical of people or sources unless you feel confident they routinely get it right. You need to be patient in not overreacting to — or oversharing — stories that hit your dopamine button.

A similar burden now falls on businesses, where big strategic decisions are shaped by evolving events. Discerning reality will get harder, as will discerning the scale of micro-movements that quickly become macro-movements — or disintegrate instantly.

• Finally, as we've written before, it puts pressure on media companies like Axios to up our games by winning and keeping trust — offering clarity in moments of confusion, and reporting clinically not emotionally.

🛸 Case in point: New York Times columnist Zeynep Tufekci, a Princeton professor who wrote a book about Twitter and social movements, found a 70-year-old parallel with the New Jersey drone craze. In 1954, an epidemic of car owners in Washington state reported pits in their windshields that they feared could be caused by vandals ... or even H-bomb tests. The Seattle mayor sought presidential intervention.

• The Seattle police crime laboratory determined that the damage reports stemmed from 5% "hoodlum-ism" and 95% "public hysteria."
• "In the Seattle windshield panic," Tufekci wrote, "mainstream media outlets amplified people's panic. In the internet age, ordinary people can perform that service."

🗞️ Context: Newspapers long were the natural home of great investigative reporters. But the pandemic expedited cuts to newsrooms.

• Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer points out that as news organizations scrambled to survive, investments that would've gone to hiring more reporters went to establishing audiences on TikTok and other new platforms, or making content for streamers.

More local news outlets were forced to pull back or shutter, removing accountability coverage for thousands of U.S. counties.

• Most places around the country that saw their newspapers shutter still haven't gotten replacements. Those communities are relying on TikTok for news. Studies have shown that when a local community loses a legitimate news source, there's a huge spike in wasteful government.

🔮 What we're hearing: Trump insiders tell us this week's X revolt was just the beginning.

• "The problem Congress faces," a Trump transition source says, "is that Elon now has an army of people reviewing every word of every bill — and he's gonna amplify the crazy sh*t in there. So until they come up with a bill without a lot of crazy sh*t, the government will stay shut down."

Axios' Sara Fischer and Noah Bressner contributed reporting.

Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful person in business, the most powerful man in media and, at least at this moment, the most powerful man in politics.

Why it matters: This much power, across this many pillars of society, is without precedent. Musk yesterday single-handedly, his voice amplified by his daylong bombardment of scores of tweets on his X platform, sank a 1,547-page, bipartisan House spending bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown at 12:01 a.m. Saturday.

It's a breathtaking preview of the new power centers that will rewire Washington beginning with Trump's inauguration 32 days from now.

• A Trump source told us this is the new playbook: Republican lawmakers got "instant and overwhelming feedback. Before, it had to be slowly funneled through conservative press ... [N]ow there is a megaphone."

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who's friends with Trump and Musk, told us: "Both men never give up, and follow through even if it seems impossible. You should never bet against Trump or Elon."

• Now, the two are a combined force blanketing culture, media and governance.

Zoom in: The number of lawmakers genuflecting to Musk on X was astonishing. "My phone was ringing off the hook," said Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky. "The people who elected us are listening to Elon Musk."

• If the government shuts down, Musk can take credit or blame. Twelve hours after Musk lit the match with a 4:15 a.m. tweet (now with 37 million views) saying the 3-month spending bill must die, Trump and Vice President-elect Vance upped the ante with a statement saying Congress must raise the nation's debt ceiling now instead of waiting, as expected, until next year. Vance was at the Capitol, participating in closed-door negotiations.
• "Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH," Trump and Vance said. "If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF."
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), whose speakership looked secure after Republicans kept the House, could lose his gavel after yesterday's revolt — which Musk inspired and stoked.

Behind the scenes: Musk flexed his intimacy with Trump last night by reportedly joining the table with his rival, Jeff Bezos and his fiancée, Lauren Sanchez, as they dined with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

The big picture: Not too shabby for a guy who barely dabbled in politics until the past year or so. Now, Musk is a full-time policy advocate, government cost-cutter, and omnipresent Trump adviser — while running four companies.

• Trump dominates politics, and will do so without peer once in office. But even Trump found himself responding to Musk's crusade to tank the package, which would have extended existing government programs and services at their current levels through March 14.
• But it included disaster relief, assistance for farmers, a new stadium provision for the Washington Commanders — "a true Christmas tree of a bill, adorned with all manner of unrelated policy measures in the kind of year-end catchall that Republicans have long derided," as the New York Times put it.
• Vivek Ramaswamy — co-leader with Musk of Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — joined the online barrage. "We the People won," Ramaswamy tweeted at dinnertime. "That's how America is supposed to work."

Between the lines: Remember that Musk is a private citizen, and Trump isn't in office yet.

• X is now the world's most powerful information tool, with Musk as the architect.

How it happened: "Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!" Musk tweeted in early afternoon, in a post that got 27 million views.

• "THIS CRIMINAL BILL MUST NOT PASS," he added fifteen minutes later.
• Ten minutes after that: "Please call your elected representatives right away to tell them how you feel! They are trying to get this passed today while no one is paying attention."
• After the compromise bill was dead, Musk tweeted at 11:23 p.m.: "The will of the people prevailed."

Trump swooped in yesterday after Musk had softened the ground. "Sounds like the ridiculous and extraordinarily expensive Continuing Resolution, PLUS, is dying fast," Trump gloated on Truth Social at 6:27 p.m.

• Trump then denigrated efforts to push through a stripped-down version of the bill. "If Republicans try to pass a clean Continuing Resolution without all of the Democrat 'bells and whistles' that will be so destructive to our Country,' he wrote, "all it will do, after January 20th, is bring the mess of the Debt Limit into the Trump Administration, rather than allowing it to take place in the Biden Administration. Any Republican that would be so stupid as to do this should, and will, be Primaried."

Reality check: Musk's tweetstorm included a number of misleading or false claims, as Politico pointed out.

• For instance, the bill doesn't include "a 40% pay increase for Congress," as Musk asserted in a tweet with 26 million views. The maximum raise for members of Congress, whose last pay raise was in 2009, would be 3.8%.

A Trump transition source insisted Musk's power flows only from the president-elect. "There are things Elon doesn't agree with us on that he ain't getting," the source said.

Think of President-elect Trump's top Cabinet and West Wing officials in two big buckets:

• The Creators are charged with stoking a booming, AI-enabled economy, including a low jobless rate — the "golden age of America" that Trump promised after he won.
• The Destroyers are the more controversial picks — wired to disrupt existing institutions, and acting on smoldering grievances against the organizations they've been picked to lead.

Why it matters: This creators-plus-destroyers dynamic dominates the behind-the-scenes jockeying for jobs and influence. Expect jarring swings between popular, pro-growth moves and ruthless government gutting and payback. It's the Trump Way.

🧱 The Creators are concentrated on Trump's economic team, including Treasury nominee Scott Bessent, a hedge-fund veteran with Wall Street cred.

• Trump wants to spur economic growth via lower taxes and pro-business policies. Howard Lutnick — chair & CEO of the Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, and co-chair of Trump's transition — was named to a souped-up version of Commerce secretary, as leader of Trump's tariff and trade agenda. Kevin Hassett, who'll be director of the National Economic Council — in Trump I, he chaired the Council of Economic Advisers — is popular on the Hill. Trump's trade representative will be Jamieson Greer, who was chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer — the pro-tariff, China-hawk trade representative in Trump I.
• Trump needs a massive surge in energy production, and greater capacity in adjacent businesses. His pick for Interior secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, will also chair a new National Energy Council, with purview over "ALL forms of American Energy." Joining him on the council will be his choice for Energy secretary, Chris Wright, a Denver-based energy entrepreneur and fracking proponent.
• Trump needs to juice the AI boom to super-boost growth — and provide more wiggle room for other economic policies. He's creating the new role of AI and crypto czar for David Sacks, who became a tech-bro hero as one of the four "Besties" on the "All-In" podcast.

The working theory: Remember, Trump treats the markets as his approval rating. To have the leverage to carry out his economic plans, he needs markets to continue booming, as they have under President Biden.

• So the most savvy companies are finding ways to show how they help Trump boost growth — while keeping quiet on his harder-edged moves.

💣 The Destroyers are out for revenge — sometimes for Trump, sometimes for themselves, sometimes born of ideology. Then they'll rebuild in MAGA's image. These are picks where Trump has gone with this gut.

• Trump is hellbent on retribution against the FBI for investigating him. Thus the aggressive pick of hardliner Kash Patel for FBI director.

Trump would be happy to return the Pentagon, the biggest bureaucracy of them all, to its roots — center it around the needs of warfighters, and tear down and rebuild a broken procurement system. A transition source says Trump told Pete Hegseth, his choice for SecDef: "I expect you to do more with less. They're spending too much money, and we're not getting anything for all that money."

• So Trump fought back when Hegseth's confirmation chances looked shaky after a series of damaging articles last month. But a ferocious operation by Trump's inner circle now has Hegseth on track for confirmation, barring damaging new information.

You can see Trump's deep mistrust of the intelligence community in his selection of former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would bring radically new instincts and priorities to HHS — and, some public-health critics contend, undermine the mission.
• Trump is stacking destroyers in some jobs that don't need Senate confirmation. These include two hard-line appointees announced over the weekend: Ric Grenell, a presidential envoy to world hot spots, and former House Intelligence Chair Devin Nunes, who'll chair the President's Intelligence Advisory Board while remaining head of Trump's Truth Social.

Between the lines: Some of Trump's picks have been given the delicate charge of both creating and destroying. Hegseth, for instance, is expected both to shake up the "defense industrial complex," while building up a "powerful military that the president can use as a tool for deterrence," a second transition source said.

• John Ratcliffe, who has been tapped for CIA director, is expected to both destroy what Trump sees as "the Deep State" lurking within the agency, while also building an intelligence apparatus that "won't be caught off guard," and will "give the president the best intelligence in the world," the source said.

What we're hearing: Trump is sticking with his destroyers because they're his people. We're told that this time around, he's vastly less inclined to second-guess his instincts when senators or advisers warn him to be more cautious.

• Trump controls the party. Republicans are only going to pick so many fights — and Trump's likely to get his way most of the time.
• Transition sources tell us that if a senator votes against more than a nominee or two, that lawmaker or their allies could wind up with a Trump-backed primary opponent.

What we're watching: Now that once-skeptical senators are signaling they'll vote to confirm Hegseth, the most vulnerable nominees are Gabbard, who faces skepticism on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Kennedy.

• RFK's past support for abortion rights is an increasingly clear danger zone with Republican senators who have been strongly anti-abortion for their whole careers.
• So Trump insiders are quietly wondering whether the anti-abortion movement will flex its muscle to try to sink Kennedy's nomination.
• By contrast, Trump's natural allies haven't been voicing concerns about Patel.

The intrigue: RFK Jr. had pushed his daughter-in-law, former CIA officer Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, for deputy CIA director, as Axios first reported. We also scooped that RFK Jr. wanted her in the job partly to get to the bottom of whether the CIA was involved in the assassinations of his father and uncle.

• We're told Fox Kennedy has been ruled out for the CIA job because of opposition on the Senate Intelligence Committee. But she could well wind up in another administration job — perhaps as part of Gabbard's team, or in a White House position.

The bottom line: A Mar-a-Lago source tells us that after last week's spree of adulation from tech moguls and his victory lap at the New York Stock Exchange, Time's Person of the Year is feeling "unassailable."

Governance, media, business and global geopolitics are all being reordered at breakneck speed — all simultaneously.

• It's the Great Upheaval.

Why it matters: We're witnessing more change ... across more parts of life ... at more speed ... than ever before.

This means opportunity — and new threats or surprising shifts — pop up faster and faster. Anticipating change is tougher than ever, CEOs tell us.

• There are several causes: a global populist surge, an AI arms race, shifting political alliances globally and domestically, and radical changes in how people worldwide get and share information.

President-elect Trump's governing plans are designed to exploit this emerging phenomenon — and speed it up, his advisers tell us. Elon Musk routinely tells Trump this will be the most dramatic transformation of business, governance and culture since the nation's founding. It's classic Musk salesmanship, as we've seen with cars: Promise vast, immediate change — regardless of feasibility.

• Musk, newly appointed White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks, and many others see explosive change hitting energy, space, new technologies, crypto and tangential businesses.

The new Trump team believes government needs to be an accelerant, not a deterrent. This means making agencies leaner, at least in decision-making, and more biased toward pro-business action.

• The risk: The shifts benefit the architects more than the general public. Musk, Sacks, the Trumps and many incoming leaders are super-wealthy, and deeply invested in the areas set to take flight.
• This upheaval benefited Trump, but it very much transcends him and the coming four years of governance. The forces set in motion are bigger than one moment, or one man, or one nation.

Eric Schmidt, the former chairman and CEO of Google, told us: "I think the most important thing people don't know is that tech is now working at mega scale — 'everything everywhere all at once.'"

• Schmidt, who just released a book on AI, "Genesis," with Craig Mundie and the late Henry Kissinger, added: "This is largely due to scale computing (huge computational and network resources) and the application of AI to everything."
• For instance, Schmidt is the lead investor in Samaya AI, which is building a financial AI platform designed to leverage AI agents for complex, high-value tasks. "Businesses will make more money and be more efficient if they move quickly to adopt these AI agents," he said.

The big picture: This is a global phenomenon and intensifies — and raises — the stakes of the U.S. vs. China cold war for international dominance.

• "China and the United States are winners," says geopolitical strategist Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, "since they're the countries most dominating the new technologies and relevant supply chains."

But there's broad agreement the Great Upheaval is hitting everyone, everywhere. This is just a small snapshot of the tectonic plates shifting at once:

• AI arms race. This is the fixation of the most powerful people at the most powerful companies in the most powerful nations. The sheer magnitude of intellectual and financial investment guarantees massive disruption, even if it never meets the epic expectations. Bremmer tells us this is making tech leaders "geopolitical actors in their own right."
• AI-adjacent surge. These technologies eat up unfathomable energy and data, driving everyone from Musk to Meta to invest billions in new sources of both. Much of this is U.S. investment, which will impact state economies and politics. "We need much more electricity in the U.S. to power these data centers," Schmidt says. "We can use foreign data centers but they are less secure."
• Space war. Another AI adjacent boom. The future of warfare is robots, drones and satellites — not boots on the ground. The nearly trillion-dollar defense budget will shift in this direction. Think about the consequences: Oceans will no longer protect against invasion. A nation's tech will matter more than its conventional military might.
• Information wars. We used to get most of our information from "the news." Now, the information in our life pours in from a host of random inputs: a podcast ... someone tweeting ... a Substack ... a snippet of video — the sum of all the noise in our day and on our phone.

What to watch: Pay attention to the info flows to particular populations. Our new information cascade is easier to manipulate than the traditional sources of rigorous reporting we all grew up on.

• Our information diet is blowing up before our eyes, as attention shatters into scores of pieces based on location, job, wealth and politics. This dynamic is true around the globe, and is enhancing the power of authoritarian regimes.

The incoming Trump administration will give Silicon Valley moguls unprecedented federal power, with tech-friendly officials and policies intertwined throughout government.

Why it matters: The tech economy's most aggressive disrupters want to apply their ethos and thinking to government. AI, crypto and move-fast, break-things thinking will be at the center of the new Washington agenda — with America's technological lead over China in the balance, and vast fortunes at stake.

A stunning alignment of people, power and momentum are all suddenly enlarging tech's tentacles:

• President-elect Trump tapped David Sacks — a member of the "PayPal Mafia" of early executives, who became famous as part of the "All-In" podcast ensemble — for the new position of White House AI & crypto czar, with a mandate of "making America the clear global leader in both areas."
• Elon Musk — who has been living at Mar-a-Lago and accompanied Trump to Paris for his return to the world stage — will be the second most powerful man in the world. He was this election cycle's biggest donor (and the biggest in at least the last four presidential cycles) — and is now co-architect with Trump of the new government, pushing relentlessly for "radical change" in government spending, mission and personnel.
• Trump's NASA will be headed by Jared Isaacman, a tech billionaire who partnered with Musk's SpaceX to lead the first private spacewalk last September.

Musk will be joined by Vivek Ramaswamy, who became a billionaire as a biotech entrepreneur, in launching the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — an advisory body named for a cryptocurrency, Dogecoin.

• Marc Andreessen, one of the original internet moguls, and other tech leaders have literally been in the Trump transition offices in West Palm Beach, interviewing potential top appointees for the Pentagon, State Department and HHS, The New York Times reports.
• Peter Thiel — the conservative venture capitalist and PayPal Mafia co-founder who was a mentor to Vice President-elect JD Vance — has allies in top Trump positions, including Jim O'Neill, former CEO of the Thiel Foundation, who has been named to be deputy HHS secretary.
• Vance is a former venture capitalist who began his career working for Thiel. 
• Even Jeff Bezos, Musk's rival in the race to Mars, is sounding Trumpy. Bezos said at last week's New York Times DealBook conference that he's "actually very optimistic" about Trump's plans: "He seems to have a lot of energy around reducing regulation. ... If I can help him do that, I'm gonna help him."

What they're saying: Joe Lonsdale — a venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder who advised the Trump transition on job candidates — told us: "This is a very optimistic administration, bringing in the talent that is willing to confront the waste, and figure out solutions — people who believe that despite the typical cynicism and nihilism of so many in D.C. that they can change things and that it matters."

• "[M]any of my friends — some who have exited companies after working hard for years and want to give back more — plan to serve and work hard for free to support the efforts," Lonsdale added.
• "I think a lot of people haven't properly understood that there's a huge difference between 'big tech' and 'the most competent builders in the innovation world.' The legacy [media] line is this is tech or Silicon Valley coming in. But most of these guys don't get along with [the] big tech crowd — these are many of our top builders."

Between the lines: Huge federal contracts will stem from Trump's disruption of government, many of which could benefit Musk and his buddies.

• Defense acquisition is one of the arms of government that tech startups are eying most eagerly. Ramaswamy told Mike during an onstage interview at the Aspen Security Forum last week that he wants the Pentagon to move money away from legacy programs, and into disruptive technologies — investing more in drones and hypersonic missiles, "rather than in a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets or whatever that aren't the highest ... use of the dollar to even protect the best interests of the United States or to protect the United States itself."
• HHS and the Department of Veterans Affairs are potential gold mines for contracts to modernize patient records.

Context: Silicon Valley also had tons of influence in the Obama administration, particularly early. But it was a very different crowd, including legendary venture capitalist John Doerr.

• Now, a small but loud group of tech stars is coming to D.C. — with a libertarian ethos that doesn't always reflect the Valley as a whole.

What we're hearing: Trump has promised a "golden age of America." So anything that stokes market metrics will appeal to him — including cryptocurrencies. Oil and gas, financial services, private prisons and crypto are all part of the booming "Trump trade" by investors bullish on the new administration.

• Trump took credit when the price of a single Bitcoin surged to a record high last week, with a Truth Social post saying: "CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU'RE WELCOME!!!"

We're told to expect him to promote crypto-friendly regulations — starting with his choice of a crypto advocate and industry adviser, Paul Atkins, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, which oversees U.S. markets.

• Part of Trump's charge to Sacks as emerging tech czar is to work on a "legal framework so the Crypto industry has the clarity it has been asking for."

The backstory: Crypto companies contributed one-third of all direct corporate contributions to super PACs in this election, "60 Minutes" found. In House races, industry donors had an 85% win rate among the 29 Republicans and 33 Democrats they backed.

• Fifty days before the election, Trump launched a family cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial.

What to watch: Trump "is going to be very focused on the price of Bitcoin," a top transition source told us.

• "It's another stock market for him," the source explained, adding that Trump would love for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 early in his presidency.

The bottom line: Andreessen — co-founder of the iconic venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz — tweeted Sunday that "political power >> financial power every day of the week."

• Axios' Dan Primack contributed reporting.