Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended global petro-flows — maybe forever — but the effects on low-carbon transition are tougher to parse.

Why it matters: Monday marks three years since the launch of the attack. Here are some effects within energy circles ...

Climate crosscurrents. There was plenty of chatter when the war started that it would speed energy transition in Europe and perhaps beyond.

• Yes, but: It also put the spotlight on U.S. LNG as shipments to Europe grew, while then-President Biden in 2022 urged U.S. oil producers to boost supply.
• Driving the news: The Atlantic Council's new global survey of energy experts — from industry, academia, government and more — is mixed on this question.
• What they found: 38% see the conflict slowing the process toward net zero, 31% see an accelerant, while the remainder see no effect. And just 25% see a major impact in either direction.

It's a new map. Europe's efforts to shun Russian oil and pipelined gas have redirected shipments, deepening Kremlin energy ties with China and India.

• Zoom in: China's oil imports from Russia rose to 2.4 million barrels per day last year, per IEA data. India's increase has been stunning, rising from roughly 100,000 barrels per day in 2021 to roughly 2 million in 2023 and 2024, per IEA.
• State of play: Europe vastly curbed imports of gas from Russia, once its dominant supplier, thanks to cutting pipelined supply. LNG shipments from its eastern neighbor have risen, but overall Russia now has just a small fraction of its prior 40% share of European gas imports.

Real but limited economic pushback on the Kremlin. Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers has stymied the effects of oil sanctions and the G7-led price cap.

• The big picture: Volumes have declined slightly, but Russian oil has been an "enduring" presence, said Landon Derentz, senior Atlantic Council energy analyst. The conflict has not deterred a "meaningful portion of Russian oil flows from reaching the market," he said.

What we're watching: U.S. talks with Russia over ending the war.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has raised the prospect of tougher oil sanctions to force talks, and easing restrictions as an incentive.
• Meanwhile, there's chatter about what once sounded far-fetched: resumption of large-scale Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, which is grappling with high prices, if the war ends.

President Trump signed a blitz of first-day energy-related executive orders on Monday, establishing a national "energy emergency" and setting in motion actions that heavily favor expanding fossil fuel production and generation.

Why it matters: The moves amount to policy whiplash for the energy industry, segments of which had chafed under former President Biden's policies aimed at igniting the renewable sector.

Zoom in: The executive orders include a declaration of a "national energy emergency" aimed at increasing domestic energy production and lowering costs to the consumer.

• This is partly in response to the rapid AI-related growth of data centers and their energy needs, which the administration views through a national security lens.
• U.S. power demand is rising quickly after staying largely flat for the last 15 years.
• One of Trump's initial orders formally rescinds a series of Biden moves that stitched climate and environmental justice throughout federal agency decision-making, going well beyond energy and resource agencies.

This includes a repeal of the Biden administration's Justice 40 Initiative and a 2021 order that set aggressive federal procurement targets for EVs, clean power, low-carbon buildings and more.

• Trump also moved ahead with rolling back EPA tailpipe emissions rules that Republicans have characterized as an effective requirement for consumers to buy electric vehicles.
• The same order also seeks to restart liquified natural gas terminal approvals, which the Biden administration had paused for climate change and energy security grounds.

The intrigue: Other energy-related orders that Trump signed include steps to halt leasing of large wind farms, and boost oil and gas production.

• The administration also signed an executive order to boost Alaska's energy production, including by rescinding Biden's 2023 protection of major Alaskan coastal areas from drilling.
• He also signed an order that attempts to rescind Biden's formal withdrawal of East Coast, West Coast and major offshore Alaskan Arctic areas from drilling.
• But there's no guarantee producers have much appetite for exploring these regions, and formally selling drilling rights and enabling development would be a complicated bureaucratic and litigious process.

Other actions include seeking to pause funds from being spent under the Biden climate law, and shifting appliance energy efficiency standards back to Trump's first term, before Biden made them more stringent.

Threat level: Trump's attempted reversal of Biden-era policies could boost U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — or at least slow down projected reductions.

• This could worsen the severity and frequency of some extreme weather events as well as sea level rise, harming national security in other ways over time.

Reality check: Trump's "dominance" agenda will also confront market and process barriers — and plenty of litigation.

• U.S. oil output is already at record levels. Tepid global demand growth makes producers in Texas and elsewhere unlikely to flood the market.
• Gasoline and diesel costs are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, while electricity costs tend to be highly regional and dependent on weather and other forces.
• Executive orders can make some instant policy. Often they're a symbolic opening of the long, legally fraught bureaucratic slog of formally unwinding agency rules and policies.

Between the lines: Presidents can use emergency authorities to redirect resources and push the private sector to boost or maintain critical supplies.

• However, it's likely that the declaration itself will be challenged in court. And its provisions are likely to run into thorny legal issues given that state and regional authorities typically oversee power plant planning and permitting.

Between the lines: The oil and gas industry cheered Trump's opening moves.

• The good news for those companies extends beyond the energy orders.
• Trump's holding off for now on sweeping new tariffs that execs fear could raise project costs — and spur retaliation from buyers of U.S. exports.
• But it may be a temporary reprieve, with Trump instead ordering reviews of trade and currency imbalances.

What they're saying: "By fully harnessing our nation's abundant oil and natural gas resources, we can restore American energy dominance, drive economic prosperity and secure U.S. leadership on the global stage," Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said in a statement.

• But Tiernan Sittenfeld of the League of Conservation Voters said in a separate statement: "It is crystal clear that his administration is all in to pad Big Oil Billionaire profits at the expense of our air, water, lands, climate, health, pocketbooks, and jobs."

The bottom line: The energy-related executive orders will yield some short-term actions on the ground.

• But it's their longer, topsy-turvy road to implementation that will be crucial to accomplishing the administration's goals.

President-elect Trump's opening flurry of executive orders will declare a "national energy emergency" to juice higher production and lower consumer costs, an incoming administration official tells Axios.

• The wave of moves on day 1 or shortly after is also expected to include an executive order to "unleash Alaska's natural resource potential." The order will support liquefied natural gas exports from the 49th state, with an eye toward helping Asia-Pacific allies.

• Follow Axios' live coverage of Inauguration Day.

Why it matters: Trump wants to send an instant message of "promises made, promises kept" — and signal a much friendlier climate for businesses across the board.

Trump's energy executive actions will create "conditions that facilitate investment, that facilitate job creation, that facilitate the production of America's natural resources, and the result will be lower prices for the American people," an incoming White House energy adviser told us.

• "National security is a key issue here," the adviser said. "Energy is fundamental to our foreign policy, and reducing American energy production curtails our ability to exercise our foreign policies."

Threat level: Trump's attempted reversal of Biden-era policies could boost U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — or at least slow down projected reductions.

Future focus: The power to fuel AI — which requires energy-thirsty data centers — is top of mind for the incoming White House, which is vowing to "unleash" U.S. energy.

• The emergency order is expected to focus on electricity generation. U.S. power demand is rising quickly after staying largely flat for the last 15 years.

Friction point: "We're in an AI race with the People's Republic of China and other nations," the incoming energy adviser said.

• "It's fundamental that we're able to produce the necessary electricity here in the United States so that we can win that race and protect our nation."

The big picture: Trump's team aims to ease construction of fossil-fuel infrastructure, such as pipelines. The new administration also is expected to overturn a suite of Biden-era policies:

• A major slowdown of oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and new bans in other coastal waters.
• EPA greenhouse gas regulations on power plants, vehicles, and oil and gas infrastructure.
• A "pause" on new LNG export licenses to major markets.
• Restrictions on oil, gas and mineral projects in Alaska.

Reality check: Trump's "dominance" agenda will confront market and process barriers — and plenty of litigation.

• U.S. oil output is already at record levels. Tepid global demand growth makes producers in Texas and elsewhere unlikely to flood the market.
• Gasoline and diesel costs are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, while electricity costs tend to be highly regional and dependent on weather and other forces.
• Executive orders can make some instant policy. Often they're a symbolic opening of the long, legally fraught bureaucratic slog of formally unwinding agency rules and policies.

The intrigue: It's unclear precisely what the "emergency" declaration and other orders will entail.

• "We're going to cut the burdensome red tape and bureaucracy that have inhibited our economy for four years now," the incoming energy adviser said.
• Presidents can use emergency authorities to redirect resources and push the private sector to boost or maintain critical supplies.

Between the lines: The oil and gas industry will cheer Trump's opening moves. But executives are wary of his plans for tariffs, which could raise project costs — and spur retaliation from buyers of U.S. exports.

The bottom line: The first moments and days of Trump 2.0 will ignite a U-turn from President Biden's expansive climate agenda.

• But turning those ambitions into on-the-ground reality is a far longer, trickier task.

This chart helps explain why President-elect Trump won't have an easy time delivering on pledges to surge U.S. oil production — at least anytime soon.

State of play: The latest analysis from the Energy Department's independent stats arm sees just modest output growth this year and next (albeit from already record levels).

• It sees production rising less than 1% in 2026 "as operators slow activity due to price pressures."

Why it matters: Market fundamentals hold the cards on producers' decisions — and for now, they probably work against a U.S. surge.

• The Energy Information Administration sees global supply outstripping demand growth over the next two years.
• And it sees falling prices, with the U.S. benchmark WTI averaging $70 per barrel this year but falling to $62 in 2026.

Yes, but: These look-aheads change all the time. There's a reason major forecasting bodies do them monthly.

• Trump's vow to ease regulations could make more barrels economic to produce, though prices and investor goals are typically bigger drivers.

And the global picture is fluid. Think variables like the effect of new sanctions on Russian shipments; Trump's plan to tighten enforcement of Iranian sanctions; and whether OPEC+ adds barrels.

• The International Energy Agency this morning said expanded U.S. sanctions against Russia unveiled this month could "significantly disrupt" the country's supply.
• But for now, IEA is keeping its Russian supply forecast unchanged.

The big picture: It may take years to assess Trump's effect.

• One big thing to watch: efforts to expand oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and frontier areas in Alaska.
• Those kinds of projects have decade-long timelines.

Stunning stat: Obviously the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico is the heart of American oil, but this is still wild: its share of total U.S. production should top 50% in 2026.

• "The expected production growth in the Permian in 2026 will be offset by contraction in other regions," EIA finds.
• It sees the Permian producing nearly 7 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. It was under 1 million 15 years ago.

What's next: Look for executive orders on Trump's first day that launch time-consuming bureaucratic work to loosen restrictions.

2025 begins amid fresh signs that steering global energy use away from fossil fuels will be even harder than many governments and C-suites once hoped.

Why it matters: The world is already far off pace from meeting Paris Agreement targets and emissions keep rising — even as climate harms pile up.

Here's a quick tour of the latest reality checks ...

Global coal demand is proving very persistent. The International Energy Agency's latest outlook is more pessimistic than the 2023 and 2022 versions on the most CO2-heavy fuel (h/t @JavierBlas).

• Coal use reached another all-time high last year, defying an earlier prediction of decline. But IEA sees only small growth — largely a plateau — through 2027.

The mammoth scale of AI-driven data center power needs is really coming into focus.

• A new Energy Department report sees data centers accounting for up to 12% of U.S. power demand in 2028.
• The growth is likely to boost gas in the near- to medium-term.

President-elect Donald Trump is vowing to nix Biden administration climate policies and plans to exit the Paris Agreement.

Other national targets could face peril as deadlines loom and elections unfold in Canada and elsewhere.

Big banks are recalibrating, too. In recent days and weeks, a number of Wall Street giants like Morgan Stanley and CitiGroup left the UN-affiliated Net-Zero Banking Alliance.

• Banks, however, say they remain committed to their climate goals.

Big Oil has slowed its roll. European giants Shell and BP have gotten more selective about renewables, even as they maintain 2050 net-zero targets.

• Shell has softened some climate goals, and watch BP's February strategy update after Reuters reported it will scrap 2030 oil and gas production-cutting aims.

What's next: S&P Global Commodity Insights sees overall 2025 global energy demand growth once again outstripping additions of clean sources.

• "While the supply of clean energy is growing faster than it ever has in history...it is not yet fast enough to curtail the growth in fossil fuel demand, let alone displace existing fossil fuel consumption," their recent 2025 outlook states.
• Aside from the pandemic and other big recessions, clean supply — renewables and nuclear — has never had a year that outpaced rising consumption.

The intrigue: Veteran analyst Arjun Murti, in a recent post, argued the "energy transition era" ended in 2024.

• It began 2019 with the rise of net-zero commitments and Wall Street focusing heavily on the "E" in ESG, he said.
• Now, he said, things are moving toward a "healthier" conversation centered on everyone deserving the energy abundance of the select few in Western nations.

The bottom line: National and corporate targets are "really hard to achieve in the real world," said Daniel Raimi of the nonpartisan think tank Resources For the Future.

• Still, Some nations are making progress (albeit not hitting their goals). "They are demonstrating that energy transition is possible. It just hasn't happened at a global scale yet," he said.

The world's appetite for coal is growing more slowly these days but still setting fresh records, new International Energy Agency data shows.

Why it matters: It's the most CO2-emitting fuel. The chart above is one reason why Paris Agreement climate goals are fast slipping out of reach.

The big picture: Coal demand is falling in the U.S. and Europe, but the pace has "significantly" slowed, IEA's report finds.

• It's rising in emerging economies including India, where it grew 5% this year.
• As always, coal's path depends largely on China, the dominant consumer. Its power plants burn a third of all coal used worldwide.
• Electricity needs are rising there, but so is deployment of renewables.

What's next: Global use could plateau through 2027 as renewables growth helps meet rising energy demand, IEA finds.

Full analysis

The plot is thickening around EV incentives federally and in California, the nation's largest auto market by a mile.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump's expected move against tax credits could slow sales of EVs — tech that Biden officials have made a priority.

The big picture: Here are two new (well, one new-ish) developments...

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will try to revive state rebates for EVs that lapsed in 2023 if the $7,500 IRA credits vanish, he said Monday.
• A major auto industry trade group, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, urged Trump to keep the subsidies in a recent letter.
• Reuters first reported on the letter, which provides a broad list of policy goals, late last week.

What we're watching: Whether the powerful auto lobby can influence Trump's posture, and lawmakers' too.

• Killing or lowering the credits' value would require Congress to act, though Trump's Treasury officials could pull bureaucratic levers to make it harder to access.
• It could be in play in next year's Capitol Hill battle royale over expiring Trump 1.0 tax cuts and ways to help finance them.

State of play: Trump's exact plans are unclear, and he's also likely to revisit EPA auto emissions rules.

• Spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, in a statement, said Trump's mandate includes "stopping attacks on gas-powered cars."
• "President Trump will support the auto industry, allowing space for both gas-powered cars AND electric vehicles," she said.

What we don't know: The size of the rebates Newsom would seek, which his office said would come from California's cap-and-trade program revenue.

• He'd have to work with the state legislature as it deals with fiscal pressures.

The intrigue: Newsom's plan could exclude Tesla, the top EV seller, and others under a potential "market cap," the governor's office tells Axios and others.

• But they emphasized it would be subject to negotiations with state lawmakers.
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk called this "insane" on his X platform, noting Tesla makes cars in California.

Our thought bubble: We could see an even more fragmented EV market if federal subsidies die.

• Other blue states could also look for ways to expand incentives as California, where EVs are over 25% of new car sales, looks to keep boosting the market.
• Another deep thought: Newsom's move has Trump 1.0 vibes, when California and other liberal states looked to counteract Trump's moves on immigration, climate and more.

The bottom line: A fight over EV incentives is brewing on Capitol Hill.

• "Conventional wisdom holds that the EV tax credits are most at risk. That is probably right," Capital Alpha Partners' James Lucier said in a note.