Donald Trump's immigration crackdown isn't just about making arrests. It's about choreography, photo ops, wardrobe changes and tough talk — all designed to discourage undocumented people from wanting to be in the U.S.

Why it matters: The underbelly of Trump's immigration strategy is, as one White House official told Axios, "the visuals" — showing force and creating a sense of urgency through viral videos and photos of top officials at the border and on raids.

Zoom in: That's why a casually dressed Pete Hegseth, Trump's new defense secretary, traveled to El Paso on Monday to meet with some of the 1,500 active-duty troops deployed to the southern border by a Trump executive order.

• In recent days the Department of Homeland Security touted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, dressed like an ICE agent, joined a raid in New York City.
• On Sunday, Noem posted a video of herself on X, riding horseback with Border Patrol agents in the Southwest and wearing an olive green Border Patrol jacket and a cowboy hat. The post was praised by MAGA loyalists — and mocked by critics who called Noem's appearance "cosplay."
• Trump-supporting celebrities have gotten into the action as well. "Dr. Phil" McGraw embedded with ICE agents and border czar Tom Homan in a Chicago immigration raid, boosting media coverage (and drawing ridicule on "The Daily Show.")
• The White House's feed on X, meanwhile, is amplifying images of military airplanes ready to deport illegal immigrants. In the first week, it touted the number of deportations and featured mugshots of "the worst" criminals who were being expelled.

The big picture: Trump's team figures that the more undocumented immigrants who see such images and decide not to try entering the U.S. — or who "self-deport" without being arrested — the better.

• Beyond the U.S., the White House's messaging is aimed not just at discouraging migrants, but also smugglers and human traffickers.
• "The visuals are important," the White House official said, noting that the voter anger that helped get Trump elected was driven partly by "the visuals of hordes of people overwhelming [the] Border Patrol and storming the border."
• "We've been elected on a campaign promise to fix the border, and it would be foolish of us to sit back and just let the media tell our story."

Between the lines: It's not totally clear how much the pace of immigration arrests has picked up under Trump compared to the last days of the Biden administration.

• What is clear is that the arrests made since Trump took office two weeks ago have received more attention, even in the same cities.

One example: ICE agents, during a week-long surge of raids in Newark, N.J., in December, arrested 33 noncitizens, including a Mexican national convicted of sexual assault of a minor teen and a Brazil national convicted of murder. Those arrests got little attention.

• During Trump's first week in office, an ICE raid of a Newark seafood restaurant that netted three people drew international attention and condemnation from Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.
• One U.S. citizen — a Puerto Rican who was a military veteran — allegedly was harassed by federal agents, the mayor and the restaurant owner said.

Zoom out: The White House press office is regularly promoting the arrests of migrants with criminal records from the briefing room and on its official X page.

• ICE hit a high under Trump of more than 1,000 daily arrests on Jan. 27, according to an X post. The White House hasn't disclosed how many of those arrested have criminal backgrounds or are simply unauthorized to be in the U.S., which is only a civil offense.
• Trump's team has said it considers all undocumented immigrants to be criminals.
• "I know the last administration didn't see it that way, so it's a big culture shift in our nation to view someone who breaks our immigration laws as a criminal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said last week.
• "But that's exactly what they are."

Science fiction writer Octavia Butler wrote in her 1993 novel "Parable of the Sower" that Feb. 1, 2025, would be a time of fires, violence, racism, addiction, climate change, social inequality and an authoritarian "President Donner."

• That day is today.

The big picture: This Black History Month, which begins this year on a day of Butler's dystopian vision, Axios will examine what the next 25 years may hold for Black Americans based on the progress in the first quarter of this century.

• Through her fiction, Butler foresaw U.S. society's direction and the potential for civil societies to collapse thanks to the weight of economic disparities and climate change — with blueprints for hope.
• Afrofuturist writers today interpret Butler's work as metaphorical warnings that appear to be coming true and a call to action.

State of play: This year, the month-long celebration of Black American accomplishments and perseverance will be commemorated amid uncertainty after the Trump administration ordered government agencies to end DEI policies.

• The move is confusing some agencies on whether Black history can even be acknowledged this year while the nation deals with rising hate crimes, the aftermath of California wildfires, a fentanyl epidemic and a new president who blames the country's ills on workforce diversity.
• Meanwhile, states like Alabama have passed bills limiting the discussion of race and Black history in public schools.

Zoom in: In "Parable of the Sower," the novel's 15-year-old protagonist, Lauren Olamina, writes a simple journal entry: Saturday, February 1, 2025: "We had a fire today. People worry so much about fire."

• What unfolds in the pages that follow is a dystopian world surrounding the gated, racially mixed, fictional community of Robledo, California.
• A new drug forces addicts to set fires to communities, who then rob and rape victims. Unhoused people roam the streets and are forced to steal to survive. Hurricanes, fires and violence push Americans to flee north to Canada.
• President Donner, like President Trump, promises to restore the country to its former glory.
• Racially mixed couples, like Olamina's Black/Chicano family, are vulnerable to attacks, and her parents, both PhD holders, have limited job opportunities.

Yes, but: Black, white, Latino and Asian Americans fall in love despite the racism outside the walls.

• They arm themselves and protect each other.
• They share history and books in defiance of attempted erasure.

What they're saying: "She was trying to warn us of a possible future that she saw coming if we did not change," Jesse Holland, editor of the anthology, "Captain America: The Shield of Sam Wilson," tells Axios.

• "With her predictions, we can see the awful visage of the future that is getting closer and closer every day."
• Holland said that includes the wildfires in California, the Trump administration moving away from Black History Month and the U.S. "seemingly not caring" about some of its citizens.
• "The hope in this is that we as a people in the United States have survived worse," Holland said. "We are a people of perseverance."

Zoom out: Butler often reminded readers she wasn't a prophet but part of a science fiction artist community asking "what ifs," Sheree Renée Thomas, author of the upcoming short story collection Mojorhythm, tells Axios.

• "She was looking at the racial dynamics and the class dynamics deepening and worsening over time. And she asked, 'If we don't solve any of these problems, what will society look like?"

The intrigue: Many scholars and readers believe the fictional community of Robledo is based on the actual community of racially mixed Altadena, California — a place leveled by the recent California wildfires.

• In the novel, Robledo is destroyed by a fire and then raided by scavengers and looters. So was Altadena.
• Butler is buried in Altadena. Her cemetery caught fire, but her resting place was spared.

President Trump on Wednesday announced an order to open a detention center at Guantanamo Bay to house up to 30,000 immigrants suspected of being in the country illegally.

The big picture: Trump made the announcement just before signing the Laken Riley Act, which requires the detention of undocumented immigrants accused of certain crimes such as theft.

Driving the news: "We have 30,000 beds in Guantanamo to detain the worst criminal illegal aliens threatening the American people," Trump said.

• "We don't want them coming back so we're going to send them out to Guantanamo," he continued.

Zoom in: There were still 15 prisoners being held at Guantanamo Bay as of the Pentagon's Jan. 6 update, but a separate facility will hold immigrants.

• The White House directed the secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security "to take all appropriate actions to expand the Migrant Operations Center at Naval Station Guantanamo Bay to full capacity."

Zoom out: Holding immigrants in facilities is by far the largest cost of the deportation process.

• An Axios review of various estimates put yearly detention costs at $66 billion under Trump's possible mass deportation plan.
• ICE only has about 38,000 people in detention — prioritizing noncitizens the border patrol arrested at the Southwest border and noncitizens with criminal histories, according to ICE's annual report.

A backlog of 3.7 million cases in immigration courts, where immigrants are entitled to make their case to stay in the country, means detained immigrants could wait months, if not years, for their hearing.

• To hold more people from a raid surge would require a mass building project of "soft detention" centers, or temporary facilities, to house people.
• The Trump administration will have to award private contracts to build such detention centers, and offer health care and education to detainees.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details from the White House's order.

Go deeper: All undocumented immigrants are "criminals," Trump administration says

Some Native American tribes say tribal members are being harassed by federal immigration agents, while others fear they could be wrongly caught up in immigration raids.

Why it matters: The angst among some Indigenous tribes reflects the confusion and fear even among legal citizens during the Trump administration's immigration raids.

The big picture: Several tribes have issued warnings and advice to their members based on what they say have been encounters in which U.S. immigration agents have demanded proof of citizenship — episodes that the tribes have linked to racial profiling.

• The alarm comes as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) says its agents are arresting more than 1,000 undocumented immigrants a day, part of President Trump's push to deport "millions" of people not authorized to stay in the U.S.
• Immigration raids in cities such as Chicago and Los Angeles — and Trump's new directives to allow searches in schools and churches in addition to workplaces and homes — have heightened concerns in communities across the country.

Zoom in: The Navajo Nation, one of the nation's largest tribes, said federal immigration agents have been questioning its members.

• "My office has received multiple reports from Navajo citizens that they have had negative, and sometimes traumatizing, experiences with federal agents targeting undocumented immigrants," Navajo President Buu Nygren said in a statement.
• Navajo Nation officials told CNN on Monday that at least 15 Indigenous people in the southwestern U.S. have reported being questioned or detained by immigration officers in the past week.
• The 17.5 million-acre Navajo Nation is in northeastern Arizona, northwestern New Mexico, and southeastern Utah. It's larger than 10 states.

ICE offices in Utah and Washington, D.C., did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment.

Zoom out: The Mescalero Apache Tribe in New Mexico announced that a member was confronted by ICE agents last week and was asked for ID — first in Spanish, although the member spoke English.

• The Sisseton Wahpeton Oyate of the Lake Traverse Reservation in South Dakota said it was temporarily waiving all fees for issuing or replacing tribal IDs amid members' concerns about ICE encounters.
• Ute Indian Tribe Business Committee — the tribe's governing body — promised in a statement Saturday to "aggressively defend our rights and interests."
• The tribe offered legal counsel to members who are "improperly detained or questioned," as did the Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah.

The San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe, whose land crosses the Utah-Arizona border, advised its citizens to record encounters with ICE, ask for agents' badges and keep their doors closed and ask for a warrant if approached at home.

What they're saying: Trump's immigration executive orders have "raised concern among our tribal members, particularly regarding the potential targeting of our community by immigration agents," Chippewa Cree Tribe chairman Harat BaRete said in a statement.

• The north-central Montana tribe then released a set of guidelines urging members to remain silent, keep ID handy and report encounters to tribal officials.
• "The Rosebud Sioux Tribe is in the process of assessing the legal effects of the unlawful and unconstitutional Trump administration Executive Orders and will fiercely defend against any threat to the sovereignty," the South Dakota tribe said in a statement.

Between the lines: It's not unusual for ICE or DEA agents to enter tribal lands for immigration or drug enforcement.

• Since the Obama administration, U.S. agents have aggressively targeted human smuggling rings that use isolated Indigenous lands to try to move undetected.

Congress didn't grant citizenship to Native Americans until 1924 — a development President Trump's lawyers cited in their attempt to justify his temporarily blocked executive order to overturn birthright citizenship.

• The administration's attorneys last week invoked an 1884 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that denied citizenship to members of tribes to argue that "birth in the United States does not by itself entitle a person to citizenship."
• Some tribal leaders saw the argument as a threat against their members' U.S. citizenship.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed immigrant rights groups' fears that the Trump administration sees all undocumented immigrants as "criminals" and isn't just seeking to deport those who commit violent acts.

Driving the news: In her first White House briefing, Leavitt falsely labeled all 3,500 immigrants arrested for suspicion of being in the country illegally "criminals." Being in the country illegally is a civil violation, not a criminal one, and the individuals who were arrested have not been convicted of a crime.

The big picture: Asked by a reporter how many of the 3,500 immigrants arrested since Trump took office have criminal records, Leavitt said, "all of them because they illegally broke our nation's laws."

• "I know the last administration didn't see it that way, so it's a big culture shift in our nation to view someone who breaks our immigration laws as a criminal, but that's exactly what they are."
• Leavitt declined to say if all the undocumented immigrants had criminal records.

Reality check: There is no law making it a crime to live in the U.S. as an undocumented immigrant. Instead, the law treats it as a civil violation.

• Those detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) away from the U.S.-Mexico border have a right to a hearing with an immigration judge to determine if they can stay in the U.S. or not.
• Less than 0.5% of the 1.8 million cases in immigration courts during the past fiscal year — involving about 8,400 people — included deportation orders for alleged crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally, an Axios review of government data found.

State of play: President Trump said in his inauguration speech that his administration would quickly deport "millions and millions" of "illegal aliens" with criminal records. Those millions don't exist.

• In the past 40 years, federal officials have documented about 425,000 noncitizens with criminal convictions on the ICE's "non-detained docket."
• About 13,100 of those were convicted of homicides and are imprisoned in the U.S. They'll have deportation hearings after serving their sentences.

During the campaign, Trump falsely said undocumented immigrants were responsible for rising crime (when data showed crime was going down).

To deport millions of "criminals," Trump would have to consider all undocumented immigrants as criminals — something it appears to be doing with Leavitt's latest comments.

• Leavitt said "rapists" and "murderers" should be ICE's priority, but that doesn't mean others are off the table.

Yes, but: The federal government, since the Clinton administration, has always prioritized deporting immigrants convicted of violent crimes after they serve their sentences.

• Immigrants convicted of violent crimes can't just immediately be deported and must go through the state or federal court system.
• Very rarely does ICE allow undocumented immigrants with convictions for dangerous felonies to return to the public after serving time. Those immigrants usually go through deportation proceedings after serving their sentences.

Zoom in: Immigrants arrested in homicides accounted for less than 1% of "at-large" arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over the last six years, an Axios review found.

• At-large arrests are those made in public settings, as opposed to when ICE agents pick up someone who's already behind bars.

Between the lines: Karen Tumlin, director of the immigrant legal advocacy group Justice Action Center, predicted to Axios that the Trump administration would call all undocumented immigrants "criminals" as an excuse to separate families and go after non-violent immigrants.

• The estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are largely agricultural, construction and service workers, students and others who have no criminal backgrounds, according to legal specialists and an Axios review of federal immigration data.

Study after study has indicated that immigrants — those in the U.S. legally, and those who aren't — commit crimes at lower rates than U.S. citizens.

Further reading: Why Trump won't be deporting "millions" of criminals

A coalition of U.S. and Canadian Jewish groups say they will leave X, the social media formerly known as Twitter, after seeing a rise in "toxic speech" on the platform and owner Elon Musk reposting antisemitic and xenophobic content.

Why it matters: The announcement Monday came as the world marked International Holocaust Remembrance Day. and days after Musk gave what scholars and rights groups said was a Hitlergruß, or Nazi salute.

• It also came after Musk told members of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party "there's too much focus on past guilt," seemingly referring to the burden Germany carries for the Holocaust.

Driving the news: Fifteen groups wrote in a joint statement that they will stop posting on X and end engagement on the site by the first quarter due to increased hate speech.

• "In study after study, as well as our lived experiences, X has become a platform that promotes hate, antisemitism, and societal division," the statement said.
• "Under the leadership of Elon Musk, X has reduced content moderation, promoted white supremacists, and re-platformed purveyors of conspiracy theories."
• The groups also faulted Musk for his role in reposting hateful and anti-immigrant content.

Zoom in: Union for Reform Judaism, the American Conference of Cantors, the Central Conference of American Rabbis, Reform Jewish Community of Canada and the Shalom Center were among the groups that signed the statement.

• Representatives for X did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Zoom out: The groups said some will maintain accounts on X to ensure our handles are "not assumed by other entities with values contrary to our own."

Context: Musk drew fire last week after giving the salute at a President Trump inauguration event.

• The world's richest man then spoke to a cheering AfD crowd on Saturday, denouncing multiculturism and defending Germany's past.
• "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that," Musk said.
• The comments also follow a series of Nazi-related "jokes" Musk posted on X, which were a series of puns referencing prominent Nazis like chief propagandist Joseph Goebbels and Heinrich Himmler.

Flashback: Musk in 2023 faced backlash for endorsing an antisemitic post, as 164 Jewish rabbis and activists upped their calls to companies to stop advertising on the Musk-owned X.

• The site has come under heavy criticism for lifting the block on white nationalists while banning critics.

Between the lines: Musk, a self-proclaimed free speech "absolutist," has repeatedly claimed that he would protect all forms of speech on X.

• In practice, however, the platform has been lenient to those who post hateful or extremist content while cracking down on speech that's critical of the platform or of Musk.
• A federal judge in California last year threw out a lawsuit filed by X against a hate speech watchdog that has said the use of racial slurs on X has soared since Musk's takeover.

The number of Holocaust survivors globally has shrunk to 220,000 on the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, according to a new estimate.

Why it matters: The anniversary, which also commemorates International Holocaust Remembrance Day on Monday, is likely the last major milestone with the presence of child survivors — the last generation of the Holocaust.

The big picture: Survivors are scheduled to speak at commemoration events around the world as advocates race to record their testimonies and as rising antisemitism and misinformation threatens to erase their stories.

• A small number of survivors are expected to speak at the Auschwitz-Birkenau Memorial & Museum commemoration in Oświęcim, Poland.
• A handful of survivors will also be on hand at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C.

Zoom in: About 220,000 Holocaust survivors are living across around 90 countries, according to data from the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany (Claims Conference) shared with Axios.

• That's down from 245,000 reported last year.
• The vast majority (95%) are child survivors born between 1928 and 1946.

Zoom out: International Holocaust Remembrance Day seeks to bring attention to the Holocaust that killed 6 million Jews.

• Though it's held on the anniversary of the Soviet Red Army liberating Auschwitz, it's also meant to memorialize survivors at Nazi death camps across Europe during World War II.

The latest: The Claims Conference this month launched "I Survived Auschwitz: Remember This," a digital campaign featuring Holocaust survivors who endured the extermination camp.

• The survivors respond on video to the question: Given your experience as an Auschwitz survivor, what is one specific thing...do you want people to remember for generations to come?
• "As we lose survivors, it is our responsibility to listen to their voices and carry their stories forward," Greg Schneider, executive vice president of the Claims Conference, said in a statement.

What they're saying: "I survived five concentration camps and ghettos —including Auschwitz. I know many people can't fathom what I have endured," survivor Aron Krell says in this testimony shared with Axios.

• The campaign is inspired in part by Krell's testimony about his brother, Zvi, who died from starvation after a year in the Lodz ghetto, the Claims Conference said.
• "But you can understand loving a brother like I loved Zvi, can imagine the unbearable pain that comes with losing one, and, hopefully, agree that the lessons of the Holocaust must always be remembered."

State of play: Anti-Jewish hate crimes reported to police across 20 major U.S. cities in 2023 rose 48% to a new record, according to the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at California State University, San Bernardino.

• Elon Musk, the world's richest man, last week twice gave what scholars, journalists and rights groups said was a Hitlergruß, or Nazi salute.
• Musk then told members of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party that "there's too much focus on past guilt," seemingly referring to the burden Germany carries for the Holocaust, two days before International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Threat level: The "Index on Holocaust Knowledge and Awareness," released last week by the Claims Conference, exposed a global trend in fading knowledge of basic facts about the Holocaust.

• While Auschwitz-Birkenau is the most well-known camp, nearly half (48%) of Americans surveyed are unable to name a single camp or ghetto established by the Nazis during World War II.
• Overall, a majority of 1,000 adults surveyed in eight countries did not know that 6 million Jews were killed during the Holocaust.
• In the U.S., more than three-quarters (76%) of all adults surveyed believe something like the Holocaust could happen again today.

President Trump claims that his administration will quickly deport "millions and millions" of "illegal aliens" with criminal records.

• Those millions don't exist.

The big picture: Less than 1% of immigrants deported last fiscal year were kicked out of the U.S. for crimes other than immigration violations. In the past 40 years, federal officials have documented about 425,000 noncitizens with criminal convictions on the ICE's "non-detained docket."

• About 13,100 of those were convicted in homicides and are imprisoned in the U.S. They'll have deportation hearings after serving their sentences.

To deport millions of "criminals," Trump would have to consider all undocumented immigrants as criminals. But being in the U.S. illegally is a civil violation, not a criminal one.

• Those millions would have to include agricultural, construction and service workers, students and others who are unauthorized to be in the U.S. but have no criminal backgrounds, according to legal specialists and an Axios review of federal immigration data.
• Unauthorized immigrants caught near the border can be quickly removed.
• But any convicted immigrants serving time — or those charged with crimes — will face deportation hearings only after the U.S. criminal justice system is done with them.

Catch up quick: In his inauguration speech, Trump previewed the executive orders on immigration restrictions he later signed, repeating his false claim that the nation is plagued by millions of undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

• "All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came," he said.
• His surrogates have repeated that claim, adding that Trump's mass deportation plan would begin by prioritizing dangerous criminals — something the federal government has been doing since the Clinton administration.

Reality check: Less than 0.5% of the 1.8 million cases in immigration courts during the past fiscal year — involving about 8,400 people — included deportation orders for alleged crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally, an Axios review of government data found.

• Immigrants arrested in homicides accounted for less than 1% of "at-large" arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) over the last six years, an Axios review found.
• At-large arrests are those made in public settings, as opposed to when ICE agents pick up someone who's already behind bars.

Zoom in: An Axios review of data for nearly 180,000 ICE at-large arrests from October 1, 2017, through Sept. 30, 2023, found that the most common charges for undocumented immigrants were driving under the influence (15%) and those involving drugs (15%), assaults (9%) and other traffic offenses (9%).

• 3% of the arrests involved larceny, 1.7% involved sexual assaults and 0.7% were linked to homicides.

What they're saying: "There are not millions of people with criminal records to deport," Nicole Hallett, director of the Immigrants' Rights Clinic at the University of Chicago, tells Axios.

• Trump "keeps trying to bullsh-t with the public that there are all these particularly serious so-called criminals. There aren't enough of those people to exist to be 1 million," Karen Tumlin, director of the immigrant legal advocacy group Justice Action Center, tells Axios.
• Both Hallett and Tumlin expect Trump to begin calling all undocumented immigrants "criminals" in order to say millions of criminals could be deported.

Between the lines: Trump's push to immediately deport those with actual criminal records also could run into hurdles put up by state and local prosecutors, legal specialists say.

• Crime victims will want justice, and prosecutors are unlikely to allow an immigrant convicted of a serious felony to escape prison in exchange for immediate deportation to freedom in another country, Tumlin said.
• Once they serve time, convicted immigrants typically have to wait in ICE detention for a deportation hearing, like everyone else in the U.S. immigration system.
• "There's no skip-the-line for criminal punishment," Tumlin said.
• Very rarely does ICE allow undocumented immigrants with convictions for dangerous felonies to return to the public after serving time. Some convicted of nonviolent crimes are released, however.

Study after study has indicated that immigrants — those in the U.S. legally, and those who aren't — commit crimes at lower rates than U.S. citizens.

• "This scary rhetoric that says it's about so-called dangerous people and serious criminals within our midst," Tumlin said. "The numbers, the math ... just doesn't math."

Elon Musk told members of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party that "there's too much focus on past guilt," days after he gave what scholars and rights groups said was a Hitlergruß, or Nazi salute.

Why it matters: The world's richest man made the remarks Saturday, seemingly referring to the burden Germany carries for the Holocaust, two days before International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

The big picture: The comments also follow a series of Nazi-related "jokes" Musk posted on X, which were a series of puns referencing prominent Nazis like chief propagandist Joseph Goebbels and Heinrich Himmler.

• Musk in 2023 faced backlash for endorsing an antisemitic post, as 164 Jewish rabbis and activists upped their calls to companies to stop advertising on the Musk-owned X.
• He's also failed to stop the posting or amplification of pro-Nazi content on X.

The latest: Musk spoke virtually to cheering members of AfD while denouncing multiculturism and defending Germany's past.

• "There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that," Musk said.
• "Children should not be guilty of the sins of their parents, let alone their great-grandparents."
• "It's good to be proud of German culture, German values, and not to lose that in some sort of multiculturalism that dilutes everything."

Reality check: Neo-Nazi and skinhead leaders often tell followers at rallies not to be shamed of their grandparents or parents who were members of the Nazi Party before and during World War II. They've also criticized growing multiculturalism in Germany.

• Germany has garnered international recognition for allowing the placement of Stolpersteine (stumbling stones) across the country to commemorate sites linked to victims of the Nazi regime.

Context: Germany will hold a snap election in February after a center-left coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed.

• AfD became the first far-right party this year to win a regional election in Germany since World War II.

Zoom in: Musk's latest comments were quickly denounced by some Jewish groups in the U.S.

• "Again: Musk is a shameless and unrepentant antisemite, and those who defend him only further embolden him and the neo-Nazis he so inspires," Jewish Council for Public Affairs CEO Amy Spitalnick said in a statement.

Yes, but: None of the controversies around antisemitism appear to have done him or his companies any visible harm, Axios' Felix Salmon reports.

• Financial markets have been bidding up Tesla stock as Musk cemented his bonds with President Trump.

What we're watching: The Auschwitz-Birkenau Memorial & Museum and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum will hold events around International Holocaust Remembrance Day Commemoration on Monday.

• The event will mark the 80th anniversary of Soviet forces liberating Auschwitz-Birkenau, and many experts believe the commemoration is the last major milestone with many survivors present.
• Survivors are expected to warn the world about rising antisemitism — and could bring up Musk.

Immigrants and advocacy groups nationwide are scrambling to prepare for the waves of raids President Trump has promised under his plan to deport millions of people unauthorized to stay in the U.S.

Why it matters: Confusion and persistent rumors about how the raids will be carried out — and what will happen to those detained by immigration agents — are leading some anxious immigrants to refuse to go to work or send their children to schools, the groups say.

• Trump's executive orders that began laying the groundwork for his mass deportations reversed several longstanding policies. Immigration officials now can raid churches, schools and hospitals to arrest undocumented immigrants.

State of play: Lawrence Benito, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights, said his group received 400 calls to its hot line on Monday alone, compared to 800 calls in January before Trump's inauguration.

• The New Mexico-based immigrant rights advocacy group Somos Un Pueblo Unido said it's launching a "Know Your Rights" campaign around the state to help immigrants.
• Other groups are handing out cards to immigrants that advise them to not allow federal agents into their homes without a warrant. Some groups are preparing an army of lawyers to jump into immigration cases.

The intrigue: Denver's public schools are among several districts bracing for possible immigration raids on students. They've directed principals to lock down campuses if federal immigration agents come knocking.

• Some Chicago restaurants are keeping I-9 documents and other worker verification paperwork ready in case of visits by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Eater reports.
• Chicago's police department said in a statement it "will not assist or intervene in civil immigration enforcement," but "as always, we will continue to enforce the law if a crime occurs."
• Police in several other cities are following similar policies.

Trump officials have designated Chicago and other Democrat-run cities as targets of the deportation plan.

• "Unfortunately, part of the goal of this administration is to try to use fear tactics [so] that people go into hiding and maybe people would be deterred and actually leave the country," Greg Chen of the American Immigration Lawyers Association told reporters Tuesday.

Zoom in: Trump advisers initially indicated that ICE would first focus on noncitizens convicted of crimes.

• But the overall plan to crack down on illegal immigration remains unclear — and scattered reports of ICE agents raiding big-city restaurants have many immigrant communities, and business owners, on edge.

Between the lines: Trump has said he favors using the military to help round up immigrants — a move that civil liberties advocates warn would be unlawful.

• The advocates have begun a series of lawsuits fighting Trump's plans, specifically against his order to end birthright citizenship.
• Officials in 22 states have gone to court to challenge Trump's push to end birthright citizenship — a right guaranteed by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. An estimated 300,000 babies are born to undocumented parents in the U.S. each year.

Legal specialists say Trump's executive orders on immigration suggest that the president's team is better prepared for challenges to its crackdown on immigration than Trump's first administration was.

• They say several of the orders are written in a way that could insulate the administration from certain legal tactics challenging Trump's plans.
• Some orders, for example, call for a study of an issue and reports to be completed before new actions are taken. The slower approach could build a stronger legal basis for future court decisions.
• "What we're seeing with a second Trump administration is already a recognition of some of the experience of the first Trump administration," Doris Meissner of the Migration Policy Institute told reporters.
• "You can see just by the number of actions that have been prepared and signed within 24 hours how much work and effort behind the scenes has been placed on these executive orders."

The other side: Harrison Fields, White House principal deputy press secretary, tells Axios that those trying to keep undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are swimming "against the tide."

• "Radical leftists can ... reject the overwhelming will of the people, or they can get on board and work with President Trump to advance his wildly popular agenda," Fields said.
• "These lawsuits are nothing more than an extension of the left's resistance — and the Trump administration is ready to face them in court."

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and two of its chapters are suing to halt President Trump's attempt to expand "fast-track" deportations without a full hearing.

Why it matters: The lawsuit filed Wednesday in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., is the latest of many legal challenges against the Trump administration in its first week after the president signed several executive orders on immigration.

Catch up quick: The Trump administration issued a new rule Tuesday that dramatically expands expedited removal to immigrants who cannot prove they have been continuously living in the U.S. for over two years.

• The new rule allows the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to decide expedited removals, with limited exceptions, of immigrants who can't show that proof to "the satisfaction of an immigration officer."
• "The effect of this change will be to enhance national security and public safety — while reducing government costs — by facilitating prompt immigration determinations," the Trump administration said.

Yes, but: The ACLU said in court documents that the new rule violates current federal law and the Fifth Amendment's due process clause since it nearly erases full court hearings entitled to immigrants.

• "The expansion means that low-level DHS officers can now immediately and without process subject individuals in the interior of the United States to expedited removal, without any consideration of their family ties," the ACLU alleged.
• The ACLU also said previous studies show current expedited removals are plagued with error and often result in deportations of immigrants by mistake.

Zoom in: The case was filed on behalf of Make the Road New York, an immigrant advocacy group.

• The ACLU is asking a federal judge to issue a stay against the rule and declare it unconstitutional.
• "President Trump's decision to fast-track deportations is chaotic, unfair, and inhumane," said Arthur Spitzer, senior counsel at the ACLU of the District of Columbia, in a statement.

The other side: The White House said in a statement Wednesday that Trump has the authority under the Immigration and Nationality Act "to prevent the physical entry of illegal aliens into the United States across the southern border."

• The White House said President Trump to direct the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, and the Department of State to immediately "repel, repatriate, and remove illegal aliens."
• Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

The bottom line: The executive orders and new rules seek to expand presidential powers by skirting existing laws, Supreme Court precedent, and even the U.S. Constitution for planned mass deportations of an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants.

• The orders and rules are expected to face numerous legal challenges, which will likely slow down the adoption of mass deportations soon.

Go deeper: Trump's immigration orders rebuked by Christian leaders

Pope Francis offered President Trump his congratulations on returning to the White House, but called his plan to deport millions of immigrants from the U.S. a "disgrace."

Why it matters: American Catholics strongly supported Trump in the 2024 election. Trump will need their support for any mass deportation plans, but crucial parts are being opposed by Catholic leaders.

• Francis sent Trump a message Monday that he's praying God "will grant you wisdom, strength and protection in the exercise of your high duties."
• "Inspired by your nation's ideals of being a land of opportunity and welcome for all, it is my hope that under your leadership, the American people will prosper and always strive to build a more just society, where there is no room for hatred, discrimination or exclusion."

Yes, but: Before sending him the message, Francis told an Italian TV program that Trump's plans for mass deportations of immigrants would be a "disgrace," per the BBC.

• Francis said that if the plans were implemented, Trump would make "poor wretches that don't have anything foot the bill."
• "That's not right. That's not how you solve problems," he said.

Zoom in: Within hours of returning to the presidency, Trump signed several executive orders aimed at restricting immigration, which are already drawing fierce opposition and lawsuits.

• One executive order calls for ending "birthright citizenship" — a concept promised by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution — for those born to undocumented immigrants.
• Another suspends refugee resettlements and expedites the removal of those who have sought asylum but don't meet the requirements.
• Another sends troops to the southern border, including the National Guard.

The intrigue: A new Axios-Ipsos poll released Sunday found that most U.S. adults say they support mass deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally — but that enthusiasm quickly erodes when presented with options over how to carry them out.

• Just 38% of Americans support using active-duty military to find and detain undocumented immigrants in U.S. cities and towns; and only 28% want to use money allocated for the military to pay for deportations.

Zoom out: A poll by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) found that Trump won the white Catholic vote, 59% to 39%.

• However, the PRRI poll found that Trump lost the Hispanic Catholic vote, 43% to 55%.

President Trump has signed an executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship in the U.S. — a right guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution and affirmed by the Supreme Court more than 125 years ago.

Why it matters: Trump is acting on a once-fringe belief that U.S.-born children of undocumented immigrants have no right to U.S. citizenship and are part of a conspiracy (rooted in racism) to replace white Americans.

The big picture: A coalition of civil rights and civil liberties groups filed a lawsuit on Monday night in an effort to halt the executive order.

• The order is also expected to face legal challenges from state attorneys general since it conflicts with decades of Supreme Court precedent and the 14th Amendment — with the AGs of California and New York among those indicating they would do so.

Context: Ratified in 1868, the 14th Amendment was passed to give nearly emancipated and formerly enslaved Black Americans U.S. citizenship.

• "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside," it reads.

Zoom in: Trump signed the order on Monday, just hours after taking office.

Reality check: Thanks to the landmark Wong Kim Ark case, the U.S. has since 1898 recognized that anyone born on United States soil is a citizen.

• The case established the birthright citizenship clause and led to the dramatic demographic transformation of the U.S.

What they're saying: California Attorney General Rob Bonta told Axios the state will immediately challenge the executive order in federal court.

• "[Trump] can't do it," Bonta said. "He can't undermine it with executive authority. That is not how the law works. It's a constitutional right."
• New York Attorney General Letitia James said in an emailed statement the executive order "is nothing but an attempt to sow division and fear, but we are prepared to fight back with the full force of the law to uphold the integrity of our Constitution."
• ACLU said in a Facebook post announcing it would join the groups suing the Trump administration, "An executive order does not have the power to override the Constitution."

Flashback: San Francisco-born Wong Kim Ark returned to the city of his birth in 1895 after visiting family in China but was refused re-entry.

• John Wise, an openly anti-Chinese bigot and the collector of customs in San Francisco who controlled immigration into the port, wanted a test case that would deny U.S. citizenship to ethnic Chinese residents.
• But Wong fought his case all the way to the Supreme Court, which ruled on March 28, 1898, that the 14th Amendment guaranteed U.S. citizenship to Wong and any other person born on U.S. soil.

Zoom out: Birthright citizenship has resulted in major racial and ethnic shifts in the nation's demographic as more immigrants from Latin America and Asia came to the U.S. following the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

• The U.S. was around 85% white in 1965, according to various estimates.
• The nation is expected to be a "majority-minority" by the 2040s.

Yes, but: That demographic change has fueled a decades-old conspiracy theory, once only held by racists, called "white replacement theory."

• "White replacement theory" posits the existence of a plot to change America's racial composition by methodically enacting policies that reduce white Americans' political power.
• The conspiracy theories encompass strains of anti-Semitism as well as racism and anti-immigrant sentiment.

Trump has repeated the theory and said that immigrants today are "poisoning the blood of our country," language echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.

Of note: Military bases are not considered "U.S. soil" for citizenship purposes, but a child is a U.S. citizen if born abroad and both parents are U.S. citizens.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect that a lawsuit has been filed challenging President Trump's order, and with comment from New York Attorney General Letitia James and ACLU.

Hours after being sworn in as president for a second time, President Trump signed executive orders declaring a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border and calling for more barriers as part of an aggressive crackdown on undocumented immigrants.

Why it matters: Some of Trump's most audacious plans — which include deporting millions of immigrants and ending birthright citizenship — won't happen immediately since they are certain to draw legal challenges.

• But Trump's emergency declaration — along with designating Mexican cartels as a terrorism threat — clears the way for using the military to help combat illegal immigration, breaking historical policies for how U.S. forces have been used in the homeland.

Zoom in: Trump sought to lay the groundwork for what he calls a "common sense" reworking of U.S. immigration policy. Executive orders call for:

• Designating cartels and gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua, as foreign terrorist organizations, and use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to use federal and state law enforcement to go after those connected to those groups within the U.S.
• Reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy for asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border, ending a policy in which they were released into the U.S. while their cases were being considered by immigration courts.
• Seeking to end "birthright citizenship" for those born to undocumented immigrants — a concept promised by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
• Suspending refugee resettlements for four months and expedite removal of those who have sought asylum but don't meet the requirements.
• Sending troops to the southern border, including the National Guard.

The big picture: The mass deportation Trump seeks will require highly organized raids, a building program for new detention centers, more immigration judges and a steady stream of flights to transport people out of the U.S.

• The large-scale operation will also require a combination of executive authority, congressional action and — almost certainly — Supreme Court backing. Republicans control both chambers of Congress, and the high court has a conservative super majority.
• The plans will also require more funding for carrying out than currently allocated.
• Local and state police will need to assist with raids. GOP-led states have said they will help, while Democratic-controlled states have said they will not.

Reality check: The Wong Kim Ark case of 1898 by the Supreme Court affirmed that any American-born person was a U.S. citizen as defined by the 14th Amendment.

• The case established the Birthright Citizenship clause and led to the dramatic demographic transformation of the U.S.
• U.S.-born children and grandchildren of immigrants from Asia and Latin America are among the nation's fastest-growing populations. They are expected to be the majority of the country by mid-century.

State of play: An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in cities across the country.

• That's not counting their U.S.-born children (who are U.S. citizens) and millions of other migrants trying to enter the U.S. in the future.
• It's also not counting the 1.2 million immigrants living in the U.S. who are either receiving or eligible for Temporary Protected Status — a designation Trump limited in his first term and has promised to revoke for Haitians in his second.

The U.S. immigration system's backlog of 3.7 million court cases will take four years to resolve at the current pace — but that could balloon to 16 years under Trump's mass deportation plan, according to an Axios analysis late last year.

• Adding 11 million undocumented immigrants would push the backlog review to 2040 at the current pace. That's without an infusion of new immigration judges or the erasure of due process for many cases.
• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — the most in nearly a decade, according to the agency's annual report released in December.
• At that record pace, it would take around four decades to deport all the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. today.

Zoom in: The new Trump administration seeks to upend the whole deportation process and could sign legislation from a GOP-controlled Congress that may allow him to bypass current laws.

• Stephen Miller, the White House's deputy chief of staff for policy, met with members of Congress in January to share ideas on how to overcome a filibuster in the U.S. Senate on enforcement laws and force Democrats to vote on bipartisan measures.
• During a meeting with senators, Miller walked through the Day 1 immigration executive orders. That included the reinstatement of pandemic-era Title 42, which allows rapid expulsion of migrants at the border.

Between the lines: An Axios-Ipsos poll released Sunday found that 66% of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally.

• That same poll found that support nearly dropped in half when asked about tactics for deportation like active duty military to find and detain undocumented immigrants or separating families.

What we're watching: The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is vowing to challenge any Trump executive order on immigration the group feels violates the Constitution and human rights.

• Those court challenges would slow down any deportation operation.
• The ACLU brought more than 400 cases against the first Trump administration as it fought to stop Trump's Muslim travel ban and fight allegations of abuse at immigration detention centers.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect President Trump's signing of executive orders.

The daughter of the late Martin Luther King Jr. warned Monday of "sinister forces" and "some disturbing things to come" just hours before President-elect Trump retook office.

Why it matters: The Martin Luther King Jr. Center for Nonviolent Social Change commemorated MLK Day on Monday as Trump is expected to sign a slew of executive orders ending diversity and inclusion initiatives in the federal government and laying the groundwork for mass deportations.

• Bernice A. King, MLK's daughter, told an audience at Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church that advocates "will remain woke" against rollbacks of civil rights gains as the new administration's agenda takes hold.

The big picture: The federal holiday commemorating King's birthday and the presidential inauguration fall on the same day — a paradox that civil rights leaders say underscores the nation's deep divide.

What they're saying: "It has become a major factor for so many people because of the notable contrast in the two men who are sharing the same space in today's news cycle and on today's Gregorian calendar," King said.

• "For some, today's inauguration represents the best of times: Make America Great Again. And for others, it highlights the worst of times."
• "But regardless of how this day shows up for you, we must remember the mission and be in pursuit of it."

Zoom in: King acknowledged the anxiety among many people of color about Trump's return to the White House following a campaign filled with racist rhetoric, anti-trans policies, and mass deportation promises.

• Yet she told activists to keep fighting like her parents and previous generations of civil rights leaders.
• "Our hearts may become heavy-laden by disturbing policy decisions ... I urge us to heed my father's timeless call to remain awake through a great revolution."

The intrigue: As MLK Day unfolded in Atlanta, a coalition of civil rights and immigrant rights groups released a signed, open letter to the public warning of a "dangerous path for the future."

• "Some of the policies championed by President Trump and his surrogates during the campaign could also give new purchase to white supremacy in the United States, a fact that is especially disturbing given the coincidence of this inauguration and Martin Luther King, Jr. Day," the letter said.
• The National Immigration Law Center, Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights and the Southern Poverty Law Center were among the eight groups that signed the letter.

Flashback: Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated in 1968 in Memphis while supporting striking sanitation workers.

• Though he participated in several marches, boycotts and legal challenges to racial segregation, he's primarily known by the general public for his 1963 "I Have a Dream" speech envisioning a colorblind country.
• That speech also mentioned how police brutality and systemic poverty were hurting Black Americans — themes often overlooked.

Yes, but: Four years after his speech, King told NBC News: "I must confess, that dream that I had that day has, at many points, turned into a nightmare."

• He cited persistent discrimination, poverty and the Vietnam War as reasons for his dismay.

During his keynote address, Bishop William J. Barber II, president and senior lecturer of Repairers of the Breach, reminded the audience of King's struggles on the eve of his assassination.

• "He was hurting despite having declared a war on poverty. He saw America's great wealth going to wage war against brown people in Vietnam ... and the nation's cities were burning."

Friction point: Drawing from King's final book, "Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?," Barber posed its central question as one to answer today.

• "We must choose community," he declared, urging unity and alliances across racial and economic lines. "We are not of those who shrink back unto destruction, but those who persevere unto the salvation of the soul."

What's next: Barber closed with a call to action, saying, "This is no time to be at ease. We must go forward together — Black, white, brown, Asian, Native, young, old, north, south, east, and west. Justice is not a juxtaposition to us; it is our religion."

Donald Trump's second presidency is already off to a blazing start — partly from how aggressively he's seized power, but also because his rival, President Biden, has given Trump a head start on realizing some of his big campaign promises.

Why it matters: The most consequential pre-presidency in recent U.S. history has left Trump uniquely positioned to quickly impose his plans to boost executive power, reshape foreign policy, deport millions of undocumented immigrants and juice the economy.

• Trump's also ignited a rightward tilt of corporate America, the removal of social media speech guardrails and significant geopolitical shifts.

Zoom in: This week, Biden's White House hailed a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal — one that was made possible partly by Trump's imminent arrival.

• Biden's team worked for months to secure peace, but Israel was willing to close the deal only with Trump's backing, Axios' Barak Ravid reported.

Trump has sent ripples through several countries with his -pre-inauguration musings on foreign policy.

• Justin Trudeau's resignation was triggered in part by divisions within Canada's government over how to respond to Trump's 25% tariff threat.
• The Overton window on U.S. expansionism quickly shifted as Trump mused about taking back the Panama Canal, claiming Greenland and invading Mexico, prompting frazzled responses from foreign leaders.
• Iran put a retaliation plan against Israel on the back burner, signaling it wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Trump.

The Trump effect has hit tech at a head-spinning pace.

• The incoming president is trying to resuscitate TikTok, signaling that he'll sign an executive order Monday to keep the social media app alive — at least temporarily.
• In a matter of weeks, Meta morphed into a Trump-hugging, MAGA-aligned fount of "masculine energy."
• The company's blitz of moves included loosening speech restrictions, dropping DEI efforts, appointing the UFC's Dana White to its board and putting Republican Joel Kaplan in its chief public affairs role. CEO Mark Zuckerberg will be at Trump's inauguration today.

These effects are cascading through Corporate America.

• Several of the country's biggest companies have unwound their DEI efforts, with many others talking about the topic less.
• Top executives, including Zuckerberg, sense a new permission structure to speak their minds, unshackled.

Zoom out: Trump has cast Biden as weak, but on some policy fronts — namely immigration and the economy — Biden is leaving Trump a stronger hand than the Republican admits.

• As Biden departs, border crossings are down, deportations are up and the economy is humming along, with inflation trending down.

State of play: Trump enters office with plans to deport millions of immigrants at a time when U.S. immigration courts already are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• Immigration courts are predicted to rule on 852,000 deportation cases from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, according to an analysis of data by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.
• If that pace continues, immigration judges will rule on more deportation cases in 2025 than in any previous year on record.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — a 90% increase from 2023, the most in nearly a decade and more than Trump did in any year of his first term.

Illegal border crossings also have declined steadily in 2024 after a sharp drop early in the year, according to Department of Homeland Security data obtained by USA Today and CBS News.

• Documents obtained by the ACLU show that ICE under Biden has considered proposals to expand its immigration detention capacity in at least eight states.
• Those proposals could give Trump a running start for a key part of his mass-deportation plan.

On the economy, encouraging consumer price index reports indicate inflation is relenting, a dramatic improvement from 2022 — although food and energy costs remain relatively high.

• Jobs reports also have been strong under Biden, whose post-pandemic recovery added more jobs in a single four-year term than Presidents Bush and Obama (two terms each) and Trump's first term.
• A majority of Americans are already giving Trump credit for these economic improvements, according to an Axios/Harris poll. A similar number of respondents, roughly 55%, said they were optimistic about the government's ability to manage the economy and lower prices.

Trump's challenge in the Middle East will be to help maintain the fragile peace established in Biden's hostage and ceasefire deal, which paused 15 months of war in Gaza.

• Biden's team dismisses the notion that Trump's impending return helped clinch the deal. Asked by reporters whether Trump should get credit, Biden said: "Is that a joke?"

Optimism for the year ahead has dropped significantly among people of color, LGBTQ+ Americans and many women as President-elect Trump returns to the White House, a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll finds.

Why it matters: The disparities between demographic groups in terms of how they're feeling heading into 2025 reflect the fact that while Trump's return fills some Americans with hope, many others are deeply concerned.

The big picture: Two-thirds (68%) of all Americans say they're more concerned about violence by U.S. citizens domestically than in years past. That share climbed slightly among women and LGBTQ+ Americans.

• 59% of all Americans say they're more concerned about the state of U.S. democracy now than in recent years.

By the numbers: 63% of Americans overall said 2025 will be better than 2024. That's barely changed from December 2023, when 66% said they were more optimistic about 2024 than 2023.

• But among Black Americans, optimism dropped from 80% to 61%.
• Optimism among Hispanic Americans fell from 78% to 67%.
• LGBTQ+ Americans' outlook dropped from 76% to 60%. AAPI respondents' optimism slipped from 67% to 60%. Women's optimism dipped from 65% to 58%.
• 68% of U.S. men said they're more optimistic about this year, compared with 67% a year ago. White Americans' optimism barely changed, now 63% compared with 65%.

Zoom in: 63% of LGBTQ+ respondents, 57% of AAPI and Black Americans, and 55% of Latinos say they're concerned about their personal safety.

• 64% of Black Americans and 61% of LQBTQ+ Americans cite concerns about their personal civil rights.
• Gen Z and Millennials also expressed outsized concerns about the safety and civil rights.

What they're saying: "It's clear that there are groups within America for whom the potential policies of the new administration are going to directly impact their lives," said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.

Between the lines: During the campaign, Trump used racist language and anti-trans tropes and has promised to roll back some civil rights protections and programs aimed at promoting diversity and inclusion in the federal government.

• Some of his supporters are urging him to reverse an executive order issued by President Lyndon Johnson 60 years ago that targets discrimination by federal contractors.
• Trump said he would slash the Department of Education and vowed to cut funds to schools teaching elements of critical race theory or engaging in certain pro-transgender approaches.

Methodology: The findings in this Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll are based on a nationally representative sample of 2,128 U.S. adults conducted online Jan. 3-5, 2025, among which 1,337 identified were identified as employed.

• The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval.
• For this study, the data for the overall population is accurate to within +/- 2.4 percentage points using a 95% confidence level, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for respondents within the registered voters

Most U.S. adults (9 in 10 Republicans and close to half of Democrats) say they support mass deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally — but that enthusiasm quickly erodes when presented with options over how to carry them out, according to a new Axios-Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump has vowed to initiate one of the "largest mass deportations in U.S. history" starting early in his return to the White House. Beyond the logistical obstacles, costs and possible pain to the U.S. economy, the survey suggests Americans could quickly sour on deportations depending on how they are carried out.

By the numbers: Two-thirds of all Americans surveyed said they support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally.

• Among Republicans, support was at 93%, followed by 67% for independents and 43% for Democrats.
• But just 38% of Americans support using active-duty military to find and detain undocumented immigrants in U.S. cities and towns; and only 28% want to use money allocated for the military to pay for deportations.
• Just one in three endorse separating families or sending people to countries other than their country of origin in the interest of speed. And just one in three support deporting those who came to the U.S. as children.
• The trends largely track with findings from a Ipsos-Syracuse University poll from November from which the questions were replicated. But the new survey shows even less support for use of active-duty military, or military funds, than the survey from two months ago.

What they're saying: "There's essentially broad agreement with Trump's position on these topics, but as soon as you start pushing into specifics, a lot of that dissipates," said Chris Jackson, Ipsos pollster and senior vice president.

• The concept of mass deportations may work better for Trump in the abstract than in reality, Jackson said. "Immigration, in reality, is complicated, messy and difficult."
• "The real question is going to be... does that level of support maintain or fragment as they confront the reality of what it means."

The other side: About one in 10 Americans — and close to 1 in 5 Republicans — said they'd support deporting immigrants who are in the country lawfully.

Context: Trump has said he would use the military to round up undocumented immigrants and would consider putting them into camps.

• Trump also has said he would deport American citizens if that means it would keep families together since he wanted to deport their undocumented parents or spouses.
• And he has indicated interest in deporting Haitian immigrants who currently have Temporary Protected Status.

The bottom line: To remove a sizable proportion of the estimated 11 million or more undocumented immigrants from the country, Trump would need not only broad but sustained public support.

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted Jan. 10-12, 2025, by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,025 U.S. adults age 18 or older.

• The margin of sampling error is ±3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.

The Martin Luther King, Jr. Center for Nonviolent Social Change will mark MLK Day on Monday with "moral reflection and prophetic response" amid uncertainty as President-elect Trump retakes office.

Why it matters: This year, the King holiday and the presidential inauguration fall on the same day — a paradox that civil rights leaders say underscores the nation's deep divide.

• Many see a contrast between a man who preached peace and an incoming president whose rhetoric has deepened racial divides, raising fears that Trump could roll back civil rights gains.

The big picture: Trump's second term follows a campaign filled with racist rhetoric, anti-trans policies, and mass deportation promises—raising concerns about the long-term impact on civil rights and equality.

• King Center officials and the King family aim to use MLK Day to remind Americans of their responsibility for human rights and poverty action.

Zoom in: Bishop William J. Barber, II, President & Sr. Lecturer of Repairers of the Breach, will offer a keynote sermon on Monday at the 40th Annual King Holiday Observance Commemorative Service.

• The service is at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta and will be live-streamed on The King Center's website.

Barber tells Axios he will reflect on how this overlap is a critical moment for people of faith and moral conviction to unite and address the deep injustices in our nation.

• "I think that we have to see this past election, not so much as an election that Trump won, but an election that the progressives and others lost."
• "If there was a serious outreach to poor and low-wage people, we wouldn't be in the situation we're in now."

State of play: Trump has vowed to roll back programs to promote diversity and inclusion in the federal government.

• Some advocates are pushing him to overturn a key executive order from 60 years ago by President Lyndon Johnson, which addresses discrimination among federal contractors.

The intrigue: All eyes are on Trump's message and its implications for the future.

Zoom out: On the night of the election, Trump said, "We are going to help our country heal," leaving behind "divisions." Marc H. Morial, president of the National Urban League, said he will be watching to see if that was "just rhetoric or he meant it."

• "The ball is in the president's court," he said. "I will be watching and preparing for whatever it is. He has to make that determination."

Regardless, Derrick Johnson, CEO of the NAACP, remains resolute as the nation enters this new chapter, telling Axios: "Our mission stays the same. We fight to ensure democracy works for all and that every citizen is afforded equal protection."

Context: The children of Martin Luther King Jr. and Coretta Scott King urge Americans to reflect on his legacy and the nation's state as the King holiday coincides with the presidential inauguration.

• Bernice A. King, the youngest child, urged Americans to "pay attention" to Trump's inauguration words and honor her father's birthday.
• "l certainly understand the desire to tune out rhetoric, ideology, and policies with which we passionately disagree and which contradict the spirit of the Beloved Community," she wrote on Instagram.

Martin Luther King III told Axios the holiday is "a moment to renew and ask ourselves whether we've achieved the dream my parents envisioned."

• "The truth is, we have not," he said. "Martin and Coretta King were not just dreamers — they were doers. It's time for us to step up."

His wife, Arndrea Waters King, added: "The inauguration and holiday, falling so close together, give us time for inner reflection. It's an opportunity to rededicate ourselves to the vision we want to see for America."

Documents obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) show that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is considering proposals to expand its immigration detention capacity in at least eight states.

Why it matters: The proposals going back to September show that the Biden administration was preparing for its own expanded detention of immigrants while Democrats attacked President-elect Trump for his mass deportation plan.

The big picture: The plans could give Trump a head start to launch the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history once he takes office since detention is the most costly and labor-intensive piece of deportation.

Zoom in: The ACLU said Wednesday that documents obtained through an open records request show proposals sought expansion of detention capacity in Michigan, California, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Texas, and Washington state.

• They reveal that private prison corporations — and other companies that provide services to build temporary facilities, monitor compliance and staff facilities — submitted proposals for expanded immigration detention in response to ICE's contract requests.
• Documents show GEO Group, Inc., CoreCivic, Management and Training Corporation (MTC) and Target Hospitality, which provides temporary tent facilities, submitted proposals.

Zoom out: The proposals mentioned the North Lake Correctional Facility in Baldwin, Michigan, which is owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.

• Also cited was the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas, owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.
• Carrizo Springs, a tent facility previously used to detain immigrant minors in Carrizo Springs, Texas, owned by Target Hospitality, was also mentioned.

An ICE spokesperson did not immediately respond to an email from Axios.

What they're saying: "These records only further confirm ICE's work to expand immigration detention across the country," Eunice Cho, senior staff attorney at the ACLU's National Prison Project, said in a statement.

• Cho said this includes in facilities "with clear records of abuse" and in areas where immigration detention has not previously existed.
• "Expansion of detention will only enable ICE to enact President-elect Donald Trump's plans for mass deportation."

Between the lines: The documents show that the Biden administration, just like the Obama administration, was involved in outlining its own stepped-up deportation plan while attacking Republicans for suggesting the same.

• Immigrant rights groups have criticized Trump's mass deportation plan and said it would strike fear in communities across the country.
• But many of the same groups have been reluctant to attack President Biden or Vice President Harris.
• Harris said she supported a bipartisan crackdown on immigration and border security, drawing criticism from smaller grassroots immigrant advocacy groups.

State of play: U.S. immigration courts are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — the most in nearly a decade, according to an annual report released last month.

The intrigue: The discovery comes just weeks after the ACLU received its first and second tranche of FOIA documents revealing that ICE is considering expanding detention facilities in several states.

By the numbers: ICE currently only has around 38,000 people in detention — prioritizing noncitizens the border patrol arrested at the Southwest Border and noncitizens with criminal histories, according to ICE's annual report.

• To hold more people from a raid surge would require a mass building project of "soft detention" centers, or temporary ad hoc facilities, to house people.

What we're watching: The Trump administration can act on the proposals from the Biden administration and seek more.