Three Israeli female hostages were released by Hamas on Sunday, six hours after the Gaza ceasefire came into effect.

Why it matters: This is the first hostage release since November 2023, when the first deal led to the release of more than 100 people.

• The released hostages, Romi Gonen, Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher, spent more than 470 days in captivity. Damari is a dual British-Israeli national.

Driving the news: Hamas armed militants released the three hostages in the center of Gaza City with hundreds of cheering Palestinians encircling the cars.

• They were then transferred to the Red Cross, which drove them in a motorcade to an IDF force in the southern Gaza Strip and from there to Israeli territory.

What they're saying: "Today the guns in Gaza have gone silent," Biden said in a speech Sunday where he presented the ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza as vindication of his policy for the last 15 months.

• "I worked in foreign policy for decades and this is one of the toughest negotiations I have been part of. ... The road to this deal has been not easy at all and a long road, but we reached this point today because of the pressure Israel built on Hamas, backed by the United States," Biden said.
• He said that unlike what his critics say, without his support for Israel there would have been a wider war in the region.
• Biden added that the region has been transformed with Iran weakened, a new president in Lebanon without ties to Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Between the lines: Hundreds of aid trucks have entered Gaza to bring supplies to civilians, and on the 16th day of the ceasefire the second phase of negotiations will begin, Biden said.

• That phase, he said, will include "the release of Israeli soldiers and a permanent end of the war without Hamas in power or able to threaten Israel."

What's next: "Now it falls on the next administration to help implement this deal. I was pleased to have our teams speak as one voice in the final days - it was effective and unprecedented. ....I am looking forward to this deal being fully implemented," Biden said

• President-elect Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz on Saturday told the families of American Israeli hostages that the Trump administration is committed to making sure all phases of the hostage-release and ceasefire deal are implemented by Israel and Hamas.
• At least two American citizens being held by Hamas are expected to be released in the coming weeks under the ceasefire terms, Biden said Sunday.

State of play: 30 other hostages are expected to be released over the next 42 days as part of the first phase of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal which was brokered by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt and signed on Thursday.

• 90 Palestinian women and teenagers were released on Sunday from Israeli prisons.

Zoom out: More than 46,000 Palestinians and more than 1,600 Israelis — most of them civilians — have died since the war began following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas.

Editors' note: This story has been updated with comments from President Biden and Mike Waltz.

After a three hour delay, the ceasefire in Gaza began at 11:15 a.m. local time (4:15 a.m. ET) with Israel and Hamas agreeing to stop the fighting for 42 days.

Why it matters: This is the first ceasefire in the Gaza war since November 2023, when the first hostage deal led to an 8-day pause in the fighting.

• The war, which started with the Hamas terror attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, has been the bloodiest period in the Israel-Palestinian conflict since 1948.
• More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza's health ministry. And more than 1,600 Israelis have been killed. Most of the casualties on both sides have been civilians.
• The war created a devastating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, displacing around two million Palestinians and destroying tens of thousands of buildings — making the Gaza strip close to uninhabitable.

Driving the news: The ceasefire was supposed to begin at 8:30 a.m. local time (1:30 a.m. ET) on Sunday.

• But after Hamas failed to submit a list of the three hostages it is going to release on Sunday, Israel announced the ceasefire will not come into force.
• Hamas claimed the delay was due to technical reasons, mainly the security situation on the ground.
• Israeli jets conducted several air strikes in Gaza on Sunday morning local time with at least 8 Palestinians killed.
• Hamas finally submitted the list around 10:30 a.m. local time, and the ceasefire began 45 minutes later.

Catch up quick: The ceasefire deal was signed in Doha earlier this week after months of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediation.

• The deal also includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the release of 1,900 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, including about 275 prisoners who have been convicted of murdering Israelis.
• The hostage and prisoners release is expected to begin on Sunday 4 p.m. local time (9 a.m. ET). Three Israeli women and 90 Palestinian women and teenagers are supposed to be released.

The latest: On Saturday, ahead of the ceasefire, the Israeli Defense Forces started redeploying some forces in Gaza — moving them outside of the enclave or east towards the buffer zone on the Gaza-Israel border.

• On Sunday morning, even before the ceasefire started, Palestinian civilians started moving back to northern Gaza and to the city of Rafah in the southern tip of the enclave.
• Hamas armed militants and Hamas police started moving into to the streets after months of going underground in fear of Israeli strikes.

The big picture: The conflict in Gaza spread into a regional war engulfing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, the West Bank and Yemen. But fighting has stopped or appears to be stopping soon on each front.

• The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, signed last November, isolated Hamas and was one of the factors that pushed the group to agree to the hostage deal in Gaza.
• The Israeli strike on Iran in late October deterred the Iranians from further retaliating and led the Shia militias in Iraq to stop their attacks on Israel.
• The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria led to the departure of Iranian forces from the country and closed that front.
• The last active front in the war, which is in Yemen, is also about to close as the Houthi rebels announced they will suspend their attack against Israel as a result of the Gaza ceasefire.

Zoom in: According to the agreement, 33 hostages will be released in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 who are wounded or sick. Israel's assessment is that most of those 33 hostages are alive.

• The hostages will be released gradually throughout the first phase of the agreement, beginning on the first day of the six-week ceasefire in Gaza.

During the first phase, Israeli Defense Forces will also gradually withdraw to a buffer zone in Gaza, near the border with Israel. The IDF will leave the Netzarim corridor in the center of the Gaza Strip and most of the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

• Palestinians will also be allowed to return to northern Gaza. Those who walk won't go through security checks but vehicles will be checked by Qatari and Egyptian officials to ensure no heavy weapons are transferred to Gaza.

More than 700 Palestinian prisoners will also be released, including about 275 who are accused of murdering Israelis and are serving life sentences. More than 1,000 other Palestinians from Gaza who were detained by the IDF during the war but didn't participate in the Oct. 7 attack will also be released.

• Starting today, the first day of the ceasefire, 600 aid trucks, including 50 fuel trucks, will enter Gaza every day. In addition, 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes will be delivered for displaced Palestinians in Gaza.
• The agreement stipulates that Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. will serve as guarantors for the implementation of the agreement.

On the 16th day of the ceasefire, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, which is supposed to include the release of the remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

President-elect Trump spoke Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone just days before the U.S. presidential inauguration.

Why it matters: Trump said last month he exchanged messages with Xi after winning the election but didn't confirm they spoke. The president-elect has promised to implement aggressive tariffs on imports from China and could also be forced to determine the fate of TikTok upon taking office.

• The call took place several hours after the Chinese foreign ministry announced that Xi is sending his vice president Han Zheng to Washington, D.C., to attend the inaugural ceremony Monday.
• President Biden has said he won't enforce the TikTok ban that's supposed to take effect Sunday, the AP reported.
• According to the Chinese state news agency, Trump requested the call.

What they're saying: "I just spoke to Chairman Xi Jinping of China. The call was a very good one for both China and the U.S.A. It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately," Trump said in a post on his truth Social account.

• He said they discussed balancing trade, fentanyl, TikTok and "many other subjects."
• "President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!" Trump added.

Per the Chinese state news agency, Xi told Trump: "China and the U.S. have extensive common interests and broad space for cooperation. They can become partners and friends, achieve mutual success, prosper together, and benefit both countries and the world."

• Trump and Xi discussed Taiwan, Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Xi asked Trump to handle the Taiwan issue "with caution."
• It reported Trump told Xi he looks forward to meeting him "as soon as possible."

State of play: According to a bipartisan law passed last year, the Chinese-owned TikTok needs to be sold to an American company or shut down operations in the U.S. by Jan. 19, due to national security concerns.

• Trump has said he wants to take measures to "preserve" the wildly popular app in the U.S. despite the new law, his incoming national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), said Thursday.
• Trump asked the Supreme Court last month to pause the TikTok ban, cementing his flip-flopping after he advocated to ban the app during his first term.
• The high court is set to rule as soon as Friday on whether to uphold the law, which justices seemed inclined to do during oral arguments last week.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.

Hostages and Palestinian prisoners held in Gaza will be released on Sunday following Israeli cabinet approval Friday of a hostage and ceasefire deal.

Why it matters: Cabinet approval, after seven hours of deliberations, was the final hurdle before the deal could be implemented, beyond a 24-hour period to allow for legal challenges.

• When it came time to vote, 24 ministers voted in favor and 8 ministers voted against, an Israeli cabinet member told Axios.
• The Qatari government and the IDF announced the ceasefire will begin on Sunday 8:30am local time (1:30am ET).
• Under Israeli law, Palestinian prisoners can't be released from prison without a government vote and a 24-hour period for the public to appeal to the courts.

Zoom in: The IDF has already started redeploying some forces in Gaza moving them outside on the enclave or east towards the buffer zone on the Gaza-Israel border ahead of the ceasefire.

• The release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners will begin on Sunday, 4pm local time (9am ET), the Israeli prime minister's office said.
• Three Israeli women being held as hostages will be released by Hamas and 90 Palestinian women and teenagers will be released from Israeli prisons.

Yes, but: An Israeli official told Axios on Saturday that Hamas has not yet delivered the list of the three women.

• "Qatar's prime minister must ensure that Hamas abides by the agreement and provides the list of the hostages today," the official said.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will not move forward with the hostage and ceasefire deal until we receive the list of hostages to be released, as agreed.
• "Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement. The sole responsibility is on Hamas," Netanyahu said.

Context: To get to a ceasefire deal, a cabinet meeting was moved up from Saturday night at the urging of the director of Israel's Shin Bet intelligence agency, Ronen Bar, according to an Israeli official.

By the numbers: According to the Israeli cabinet decision, 33 Israeli hostages will be released over 42 days of ceasefire.

• In return Israel will release 737 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in addition to 1167 Palestinians from Gaza who were not involved in the October 7 attack but have been detained by the IDF in Gaza since October 8.

According to the Israeli cabinet decision, Palestinian prisoners who were convicted of murder, production of weapons that were used for murder or initiated an attack that resulted in murder will be released only to Gaza or abroad and will not be allowed to go back to the West Bank or to Israel for at least three years.

• During the cabinet decision the heads of the Israeli intelligence services and the IDF said they support the deal, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said.
• Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar and Minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer told the cabinet that implementing the deal would improve relations with the U.S. — it will end relations with the Biden administration on a positive note and start relations with the Trump administration on the right foot, Saar told Axios.

Driving the news: The Israeli security cabinet convened on Friday morning local time, ahead of the full cabinet meeting, and was briefed on the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

• Netanyahu said during the meeting that he received guarantees from both the Biden administration and the Trump administration that if negotiations over the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal fail, and Israel's security demands are not met, Israel would be able to resume the war in Gaza with U.S. backing, an Netanyahu aide tells Axios.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu's remarks at the security cabinet meeting came after ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he and the cabinet members from his party would vote against the deal but not leave Netanyahu's coalition.

• Sources in Smotrich's party claimed he received assurances from Netanyahu that the war would resume after the initial 42-day ceasefire and the humanitarian aid delivery system for Gaza would be changed to prevent Hamas from controlling the aid.
• Meanwhile, Netanyahu's ultranationalist minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, held a press conference on Thursday and announced he would resign and his party would leave the coalition if the deal was approved. He said he would be ready to rejoin the coalition if Israel were to resume fighting in Gaza after the 42-day ceasefire in the first phase of the deal.
• Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir voted against the deal at the security cabinet meeting, but it still passed easily.

State of play: Ahead of the cabinet meeting Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signed an order to release all Israeli settlers who were under administrative detention for allegedly committing and planning terror attacks against Palestinians.

• An Israeli security official who was alarmed by the decision said Katz made it for domestic political considerations and without consultation with the Shin Bet.
• "The decision gives backwind for terrorism and will destabilize the security situation in the West Bank," the official warned.

Go deeper: How two feuding presidents combined to get a Gaza deal

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest details about the deal.

It took two presidents who can't stand each other to make a deal between Israel and Hamas.

• President-elect Trump swiftly claimed the victory for himself on Wednesday, while President Biden retorted sharply when a reporter asked if he or Trump really deserved the credit: "Is that a joke?"

Why it matters: Officials from the U.S., Israel and Qatar tell Axios the deal to free the hostages and end 15 months of war wouldn't have been possible without unprecedented coordination between their administrations.

• While Biden laid out the parameters of this deal all the way back in May and spent months pushing the parties to agree to it, Trump's public and private involvement "was the 10 cents missing for the dollar," one U.S. official told Axios.
• Both Israel and Hamas had far more incentive to sign on once they knew it was a deal with the incoming president, not just the outgoing one, another official acknowledged.

Flashback: After Trump's election victory, Biden and his team set a Gaza deal as their key foreign policy goal for the remaining 10 weeks in the White House.

• When Biden met Trump in the Oval Office a few days later, he proposed that they work together on a deal.
• The president-elect agreed, and decided he wanted an agreement before his inauguration.
• Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk started meeting with their successors on the Trump team, Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, to coordinate their efforts.
• The ceasefire reached between Israel and Hezbollah in late November also provided new hope for a Gaza deal, and left Hamas more isolated than ever. "The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon was where the hostage deal really started," an Israeli official said.

The intrigue: On Dec. 2, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) went to Mar-a-Lago for a round of golf with Trump. "I told him that if he issues a statement about the hostages in Gaza it will be a big deal," Graham told Axios.

• Trump agreed and started dictating to his press team. The resulting Truth Social post said that if the hostages were not freed by Jan. 20, "There will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge."
• That created a sense of urgency for the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, but also for Netanyahu, sources familiar with the talks say.

Several days later, Sullivan and McGurk travelled to Israel and met Netanyahu. The Prime Minister told them he wanted a deal on Trump's timeline.

• Sullivan, McGurk and CIA director Bill Burns all traveled to Doha to launch a final push for a deal.
• But Mohammad Sinwar, who succeeded his brother as Hamas' military leader in Gaza, refused to budge, and the gaps remained wide. U.S. officials also remained skeptical of Netanyahu's willingness to deal after he walked back promises and moved goalposts at previous points in the talks.
• As McGurk returned home for Christmas, it looked like the window for getting a deal before Trump assumed office was closing.

Trump decided to dispatch Witkoff to the region after talks picked back up in the New Year and began to show some momentum.

• "The president is exasperated," Witkoff, a real estate investor and Trump confidante, said at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago two days before he travelled to Doha.
• "If these hostages aren't back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East — it will not be good for Hamas or anybody else," Trump warned once again.
• McGurk later told Trump's envoy the time was ripe and his push was needed.

Zoom in: In meetings after his arrival last Friday, Witkoff stressed to the Qatari prime minister that Trump wanted a deal and expected the mediators to push Hamas to make one.

• He told Netanyahu: "Trump is serious about this deal, don't ruin this," according to a source briefed on their conversation.
• Witkoff also asked Netanyahu to send in more senior officials to negotiate, with a mandate to close the deal, the source said. Netanyahu agreed.
• Later that evening, Witkoff joined a meeting between Netanyahu and his chief negotiators. McGurk also dialed in. Over the next hour, the envoys from the two administrations probed the areas on which the Israelis were willing to be flexible.

What they're saying: An Israeli official told Axios that was an unprecedented moment in the U.S.-Israel relationship, and credited Witkoff for injecting "Trump momentum" into the meeting.

• "Witkoff played a crucial role in the negotiations over the last few days, applying pressure from Trump. It was an X-factor," another Israeli official said.
• Graham told Axios that all the players involved understood that Witkoff speaks for Trump. "People in the region don't want to start on a bad foot with Trump," he said.

Behind the scenes: From Israel, Witkoff traveled back to Doha and joined McGurk for 96 hours of intense diplomacy.

• In another unusual step for representatives of successive administrations, the two met together with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.

Behind the scenes: The final sprint in the negotiations took place at a Qatari government official residence. Hamas representatives were on the first floor with the Israelis on the second and the Qatari and Egyptian mediators shuttling between them.

• Negotiations dragged on until 3am each night and resumed in the morning after a few hours of sleep, a U.S. official said.
• Issue after issue was closed: The redeployment of Israeli forces; what Hamas must do during the ceasefire; the delivery of humanitarian aid; the sequencing of hostage and prisoner releases.
• On Wednesday morning, Hamas raised three new demands, according to a U.S. official. "We had to flex a muscle to get them to back off, and we did," the official said.

That afternoon local time, Hamas came back for a meeting with the Qatari and Egyptian mediators and gave its official positive response. "Only then we were sure we have a deal," the U.S. official said.

• The Qatari prime minister made the announcement: "We saw two U.S. administrations working together... what the U.S. did led to this moment."
• Next, Netanyahu called Trump and thanked him for his help in getting the deal. Only then did he call to thank Biden.

A deal has been reached in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas to release hostages being held in Gaza and establish a ceasefire, according to U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials.

Why it matters: The agreement will end more than 15 months of the deadliest war in the decades long Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

• About 98 hostages are still being held in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages, including three Americans, are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence.
• More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
• The first phase of the deal calls for 33 hostages to be released along with around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

The latest: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani officially announced an agreement has been reached and said it will come into effect on Sunday. A joint U.S.-Egyptian-Qatari team in Cairo will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, he said.

• President-elect Trump on Truth Social said "we have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East."

In a statement announcing the agreement, President Biden said it "is the result not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy."

• Biden said several U.S. citizens being held hostage will be released as part of the first phase of the deal.
• Israeli officials said it will actualy be two U.S. citizens, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen.
• Biden said he is "confident" the deal will hold.

The Israeli cabinet will convene on Thursday morning local time to approve the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, officials said.

• Israel and Hamas haven't officially announced a deal, but NBC News reported senior Hamas official Basem Naim confirmed the militant group had agreed.

The big picture: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas reached a critical point over the weekend, one week before Trump will be sworn into office.

• The President-elect has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.

Israeli officials, Hamas officials and mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. have been working around the clock for several days in Doha to hammer out a deal.

• Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff have both been in Doha since last week and have been working together to push for a deal.
• Earlier this week, the mediators gave Hamas a final draft agreement.
• Hamas representatives in Doha signed off a few days ago but the parties waited for a response from Hamas' military leader in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, which arrived on Wednesday afternoon local time.
• The head of Hamas' negotiating team, Khalil al-Hayya, said in a speech from Qatar after the deal was announced that the Oct. 7 attack on Israel "will forever be a source of pride for our people... and our people will expel the occupation from our land and from Jerusalem in the earliest time possible"

Zoom in: According to the agreement, 33 hostages will be released in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 who are wounded or sick. Israel's assessment is that most of those 33 hostages are alive.

• The hostages will be released gradually throughout the first phase of the agreement, beginning on the first day of the six-week ceasefire in Gaza.

During the first phase, Israeli Defense Forces will also gradually withdraw to a buffer zone in Gaza near the border with Israel. The IDF will leave the Netzarim corridor in the center of the Gaza Strip and most of the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

• Palestinians will also be allowed to return to northern Gaza during the first phase of the deal. Those who travel by foot won't go through security checks but vehicles will be checked by Qatari and Egyptian officials to ensure no heavy weapons are transferred to Gaza.
• More than 700 Palestinian prisoners will also be released, including about 275 who are accused of murdering Israelis and are serving life sentences. Another thousand Palestinians from Gaza who were detained by the IDF during the war but didn't participate in the Oct. 7 attack will also be released.
• The exact number of prisoners to be released will be determined only after Hamas clarifies which of the hostages to be released are alive, Israeli official said.
• From the first day of the ceasefire, 600 aid trucks, including 50 fuel trucks, will enter Gaza every day. In addition, 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes will be delivered for displaced Palestinians in Gaza.
• The agreement stipulates that Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. will serve as guarantors for the implementation of the agreement.

On the sixteenth day of the ceasefire, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, which is supposed to include the release of the remaining hostages and a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken will lay out a plan for rebuilding and governing Gaza after the Israel-Hamas war on Tuesday, three U.S. officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: Blinken is down to his last week in Foggy Bottom, but he hopes his blueprint will become a reference point for any future day-after plan for Gaza, including for the incoming Trump administration.

Driving the news: Blinken will lay out his plan in a speech at the Atlantic Council on Tuesday morning amid efforts to conclude a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

• President-elect Donald Trump told Newsmax on Monday night that Israel and Hamas are "very close" to a deal. "I understand that there has been a handshake and they are getting it finished — maybe by the end of the week," he said. Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is participating in the negotiations in Doha.
• A plan for the post-Hamas governance structure in Gaza would be crucial for efforts to implement the second phase of the Gaza deal, which is designed to lead to a permanent ceasefire and the end of the war.

State of play: Blinken has presented his plan for Gaza's security, administration and reconstruction after a ceasefire agreement is in place to several U.S. allies.

• "We are ready to hand that over to the Trump administration so it can work on it and run with it when the opportunity is there," he said at a press conference in Paris last week.

Behind the scenes: Blinken's plan has become a highly contentious issue inside the State Department and a source of fierce internal fighting.

• Some State Department officials were concerned the plan would serve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's interests and marginalize marginalize the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas.

Catch up-quick: Axios reported in October that Blinken was working on a post-war plan for Gaza based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates and wanted to present it after the presidential election.

• Blinken appointed his adviser and close friend Jamie Rubin as the point person for the day-after plan.
• Several week ago, Rubin traveled to Israel and the West Bank to discuss the plan. U.S. officials said Palestinian Authority officials gave Rubin a long list of reservations about the plan, signaling they don't support it.
• The State Department has briefed the Israeli government, the Palestinian Authority, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the main points in the speech, U.S. officials said.

Blinken's plan is based on establishing a governing mechanism that will include the involvement of international community and Arab countries that could also send troops to Gaza to stabilize the security situation and deliver humanitarian aid.

• The speech will call for reform of the Palestinian Authority, while making clear the PA must be a part of any future government in Gaza.
• The Israeli government wants Arab countries to be involved in a post-war Gaza but has so far refused to agree to any day-after plan which includes the involvement of the Palestinian Authority.
• Blinken's speech will also reiterate the principles he laid out in Tokyo early in the war and that object to any permanent Israeli occupation of Gaza, the decrease of its territory or the forced transfer of Palestinians from Gaza.
• State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller declined to comment.

The bottom line: "Blinken wants to try and shape the outcome of the war and he will make clear in his speech how he thinks Israel can turn its tactical wins against Hamas into strategic gains," a U.S. official said.

Israel and mediators from Egypt, the U.S. and Qatar have given Hamas a final draft agreement for the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza, two senior Israeli officials and a source familiar with the details said.

Why it matters: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached a critical point a week before President-elect Trump is sworn into office.

• Trump has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.
• About 98 hostages are still being held in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages, including three Americans, are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence.
• More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.

Driving the news: The sources said the mediators are awaiting Hamas' response to the draft. An Israeli official said the leader of Hamas's military wing in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, will decide whether to agree to the deal.

• Two Israeli officials said Hamas' response is expected in the next 24 hours.
• Israeli officials said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to make new concessions about the Palestinian prisoners who would be released as part of the deal and about the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors in Gaza.
• "It seems that we are headed for a deal," an Israeli official said, adding that they are waiting for Hamas' response and "only then will we know for sure."

The other side: A Hamas official told Reuters on Monday that "the negotiation over some core issues made progress and we are working to conclude what remains soon."

The latest: President Biden in a speech at the State Department on Monday said "we are on the brink" of a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal.

• "We are pressing hard" to close the deal, Biden said.

A senior Israeli official told reporters in a briefing on Monday that there is "progress in all components of the agreement."

• "We are working in coordination with the mediators and with both U.S. administrations — the outgoing and incoming. The best, optimal conditions have been created for a deal to take place," the official said.
• The official added that Israel is ready to immediately implement the deal. "I don't know if it's a matter of hours, days or more until the talks are completed. We want it to happen quickly," the official said.

Zoom in: According to the draft agreement, 33 hostages would be released in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 who are wounded and sick.

• Hamas has not yet provided information on the condition of those 33 hostages, the Israeli official said. Israel's assessment is that most are alive.
• The hostages would be released gradually throughout the first phase of the agreement, which would last 42 days. At the same time, there would be a ceasefire in Gaza.

During the first phase, Israeli Defense Forces would also gradually withdraw to a buffer zone in Gaza near the border with Israel, the official said. The IDF would leave the Netzarim corridor in the center of the Gaza Strip and the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt — two areas that have been a sticking point in past negotiations.

• But Israel won't completely withdraw from Gaza until all of the hostages are returned, the Israeli official said.

Palestinians would also be allowed to return to northern Gaza during the first phase of the deal. An Israeli official said there would be "security arrangements" to ensure no militants or weapons are moved to the northern part of the Strip.

• Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would also be released, including those who murdered Israelis. The exact number of prisoners to be released will be determined only after Hamas clarifies which of the hostages to be released are alive, the official said.
• The Israeli official said Palestinian prisoners who murdered Israelis would not be released to the West Bank, but declined to say where they would be released to. Hamas members who participated in the Oct. 7 attack would not be released in the first phase.

On the 16th day of the first phase of the agreement, negotiations would begin on the implementation of the second phase of the deal, which is supposed to end with a full withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire.

• The senior Israeli official said in the briefing that the second phase would include the release of all the living and dead hostages still held by Hamas.
• The deal would also includes an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza , according to the official, who added that Israel is working on a way to prevent Hamas from taking control of the aid in order to make it difficult for the group to govern Gaza again.

Zoom out: Biden spoke on the phone Monday with the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim al-Thani and discussed efforts to reach a deal, the White House said. Biden is expected to speak with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Monday as well.

• The Qatari emir met on Monday with a delegation of senior Hamas officials led by chief negotiator Khalil al-Haya.
• The emir also held a joint meeting with Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the hostage deal. Both are in Doha for the negotiations.

What they're saying: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at a Bloomberg event in Washington, DC on Monday that there's been "considerable" pressure on Hamas to come to an agreement.

• "There is a distinct possibility we can get this deal done this week," Sullivan said.
• Sullivan said he spoke on Monday morning with McGurk, and with the prime minister of Qatar and Israeli negotiators. A source familiar said Israeli Mossad Director David Barnea was on the call. Barnea, Israeli Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and IDF general Nitzan Alon traveled to Doha on Saturday for talks about the deal.
• The source said Netanyahu told Biden in a call on Sunday that he wants the deal as it is right now and is willing to conclude the negotiations as soon as possible.
• "There is a general sense that this is moving in the right direction. It is there for the taking. The question is if we can get everyone to say yes," Sullivan said.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for details.

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the efforts to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal by Jan. 20 — when Biden's term ends — according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

Why it matters: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached a critical point eight days before President-elect Trump is sworn into office.

• Biden's team is closely coordinated with Trump's team and both sides are working together to push for a deal, officials said.
• "We are very very close [to a Gaza deal] and yet far because we are not there. It is possible to get it done before January 20 - but I can't be sure", White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union".

What they're saying: The Israeli Prime Minister's office said Netanyahu briefed Biden on the progress in the negotiations and on the mandate he gave Israeli negotiators to reach a deal.

• Biden stressed the immediate need for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages, as well as a surge in humanitarian aid enabled by a stoppage in the fighting, the White House said

Between the lines: Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk has negotiating deal terms in Doha for a week.

• Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff also arrived in Doha in recent days. On Saturday he visited Netanyahu in Israel before traveling back to Doha.
• Israeli Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and IDF general Nitzan Alon also traveled to Doha on Saturday in order to push forward the hostage and ceasefire deal.

President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Israel on Saturday to push for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israeli officials said.

Why it matters: Witkoff's traveled to Israel from Qatar as part of a last-minute effort by Trump to press all parties involved in the negotiations to conclude the deal before Jan. 20.

• Trump has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.

Behind the scenes: A senior Israeli official said Witkoff delivered a message to the prime minister of Qatar in their meeting in Doha on Friday that Trump wants to see a deal within days.

Zoom in: Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday and stressed Trump's goal of reaching a deal by Jan. 20.

• During the meeting, members of the Israeli negotiations team and President Biden's Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who is in Doha, joined in a conference call to discuss the status of the negotiations, Netanyahu's office said.
• At the end of the meeting, Netanyahu instructed the director of Mossad David Barnea, the Director of Shin Bet Ronen Bar and IDF general Nitzan Alon to travel to Doha immediately in order to push forward the hostage and ceasefire deal, the prime minister's office said.

Another senior Israeli official said Witkoff emphasized the Inauguration Day goal several times during the consultation with Netanyahu and the Israeli negotiating team.

• "Witkoff is playing a crucial role in the negotiations right now, applying pressure from Trump," the Israeli official said.
• The Israeli official noted that there has been a narrowing of gaps in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas in recent days, but some gaps still remain. He said the parties are not yet "within the zone of agreement" but are very close to it.
• The Israeli official added: "There is a chance of reaching an agreement, but it is a serious challenge. The heads of the Israeli negotiating team would not have gone to Qatar if they did not think an agreement could be reached. It will be difficult, but the team will do its best to reach a deal."
• Witkoff is going back to Doha to continue the efforts to reach a deal, a U.S. source said.

Witkoff declined to comment.

Driving the news: Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediation are still ongoing in Doha. U.S. officials say McGurk and Witkoff are coordinating their efforts.

• About 98 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.
• If an agreement is reached, the first phase could include the release of 33 hostages — some who are still alive and some who are dead.
• The first phase is also expected to include a ceasefire in Gaza for a period of between six and seven weeks and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those who murdered Israelis.

State of play: White House spokesman John Kirby said on Friday that progress has been made in the negotiations and that a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is possible before Jan. 20.

• "But more compromises are needed," Kirby said.
• Israeli officials said on Saturday that there has been progress in the talks over the last 24 hours.
• They said Netanyahu has to decide whether to send the directors of the Israeli Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence agencies to Doha to join the talks and try to close the deal.

What they're saying: CIA director Bill Burns told NPR in an interview publish on Friday that the hostages are held "in hellish conditions in tunnels and Gaza civilians are also in hellish conditions and suffering terribly."

• "So there's every reason for political leaders to recognize that enough is enough. That perfect is rarely on the menu in the Middle East and it's time to make a deal," he said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details of the Netanyahu and Witkoff meeting.

Denmark sent private messages in recent days to President-elect Trump's team expressing willingness to discuss boosting security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, two sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump's refusal to rule out military force to take control of Greenland was effectively a threat to invade a longstanding NATO ally. Those comments caught Copenhagen and many other European capitals off guard.

The big picture: Greenland (pop. 56,000) is largely autonomous, but Denmark maintains responsibility for defense.

• Trump has repeatedly declared that controlling Greenland — the world's largest island — is necessary for U.S. national security vis-a-vis Russia and China. His son Don Jr. visited Greenland this week bearing MAGA hats.
• Climate change is opening up the Arctic for competition between superpowers, and could also make it easier to tap Greenland's mineral riches.

Between the lines: The Danish government wants to convince Trump, including through the messages passed to his advisers this week, that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming Greenland for the U.S.

• One European diplomat told Axios that Denmark is widely seen as one of the closest allies of the U.S. within the EU, and no one could have imagined it would be the first country with which Trump would pick a fight.

Driving the news: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her Greenlandic counterpart Múte Egede met on Friday in Copenhagen to discuss the situation.

• In a press conference after the meeting Frederiksen said she asked for a meeting with Trump. Egede said he is also ready to talk to the president-elect.
• "Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic," Egede, an advocate for independence, said at the press conference.

Behind the scenes: The sources said the Danish government wants to avoid a public clash with the new U.S. administration, and asked members of the Trump team for clarification regarding what exactly the president-elect meant in his comments earlier this week.

• In the messages passed to the Trump team, the Danish government made clear Greenland was not for sale but expressed readiness to discuss any other U.S. request regarding the island, the sources said.
• The U.S. already has a military base on Greenland and an agreement with Denmark dating to 1951 on defending the island, under which an increase of U.S. forces could easily be discussed.
• Danish officials have already said they are looking into further measures to increase investment in military infrastructure and capabilities in Greenland, in consultation with the Greenlandic government.

Zoom out: Greenland played a key role in NATO and U.S. defenses during the Cold War as part of an early warning system to detect Soviet submarines, or potentially missiles.

• With new sea lanes opening up as climate change reshapes the Arctic, Greenland's geography is becoming all the more important.
• But if Trump's real concern is security, there's no reason the U.S. couldn't simply increase its military presence and capabilities in Greenland under its alliance with Denmark, contends Malte Humpert, a founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute.

What to watch: Secretary of State Blinken downplayed Trump's comments and said there's no point wasting time on them. "It is not a good idea and it is not going to happen," Blinken said.

• But Trump's continued comments about this issue, and his son's visit, mean Danish and Greenlandic officials can't rule out the possibility that Trump is quite serious.

The bottom line: The main question is whether Trump would be content to cut a deal with Denmark and declare victory, or whether his true mission is to become the first president in 80 years to gain new territory for the U.S.

The Lebanese Parliament on Thursday elected the commander of the Lebanese armed forces Gen. Joseph Aoun as the country's next president.

Why it matters: Lebanon hasn't had a president for more than two years while the country's leaders tried to reach consensus on a candidate, which has exacerbated Lebanon's deep political and economic crisis.

• Aoun is an ally of the U.S. and has worked closely with the U.S. military for years.
• His election is a big achievement for the Biden administration, which privately lobbied for Aoun and has been pushing to use the weakening of Hezbollah in the war with Israel to break the logjam around the election of a new Lebanese president.

The latest: Biden spoke on the phone with Aoun on Thursday and congratulated him.

• In a statement, he said Aoun "will provide critical leadership" as Lebanon and Israel implement their ceasefire agreement.
• "President Aoun has my confidence.  I believe strongly he is the right leader for this time," the statement said.

Driving the news: Aoun needed at least 86 votes from lawmakers in order to bypass a law that requires military officers to wait two years before running for office.

• In the first round of voting on Thursday morning, Aoun didn't get enough votes because several lawmakers affiliated with the Shiite Amal party and Hezbollah abstained.
• Aoun then met with the lawmakers and assured them that the next Lebanese government would have enough representation for the Shia community.
• Shortly after, a second vote was held with Aoun winning 99 votes out of 128 lawmakers.

Behind the scenes: The U.S., France and Saudi Arabia worked together in recent weeks to push for the election of a new Lebanese president.

• The three countries didn't publicly call for Auon's election but in private they supported his candidacy and claimed he was the only consensus candidate, sources with knowledge of the discussion said.
• Earlier this week, Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein met in Beirut with Aoun as well as key political leaders and dozens of Lebanese lawmakers to discuss the presidential election.
• The breakthrough came on Wednesday when Suleiman Frangieh, the candidate supported by Hezbollah, dropped out of the race and announced his support for Aoun.

The big picture: U.S. officials said the end of the deadlock can be attributed largely to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers being in an extremely weak position after suffering loses in the war with Israel and the Assad regime being toppled in Syria.

• Hezbollah had to abandon its veto over any candidate who is not Frangieh and the Iranians didn't interfere in the process, a U.S. official said.
• Aoun's election is likely to increase Western support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese armed forces redeployed to southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel.
• Aoun's victory would also likely increase U.S. and European pressure on Israel to conclude its withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the end of the initial 60-day ceasefire period, which will end in three weeks.

What they're saying: Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon for the election of a new president.

• "I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations," he said.

In a speech after his election, Aoun said Lebanon under his presidency will be committed to the rule of law and that he will make sure the right to carry weapons will be exclusive to the state.

• He said Lebanon will respect the ceasefire agreement with Israel and its other international obligations.
• Aoun said Lebanon's foreign policy will be of "positive neutrality" and that the country will work to improve relations with the West and the East based on "mutual respect and on maintaining Lebanon's sovereignty and independent decision."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with President Biden's statement.

State Department officials told the Trump administration transition team there could be a humanitarian "catastrophe" in Gaza when a new Israeli law barring contact with the UN refugee agency for Palestinians takes effect at the end of the month, three U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is the primary aid agency operating in Gaza. U.S. officials say there's no serious backup plan for providing humanitarian supplies and services to Palestinians.

• After more than a year of war, the UN and other aid organizations warn Gaza is close to uninhabitable. Tens of thousands of houses have been destroyed. Nearly two million Palestinians are displaced and dependent on aid for food, water and medical services.
• The Israeli law will take effect a few days after President-elect Trump's inauguration, when the new administration will be faced with mounting world crises.
• Biden administration officials told Axios they initiated the briefing about UNRWA because they wanted the new administration to be aware of the looming crisis.

Catch up quick: In late October, the Israeli parliament passed two bills that would significantly limit UNRWA's ability to continue operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

• The first bill bars UNRWA from operating in Israeli territory, and is most relevant to UNRWA's activity in East Jerusalem. But it also affects the aid agency's operations in the West Bank that are run from Jerusalem.
• The second bill bars any Israeli government official from having contact with UNRWA, and strips all UNRWA workers of their diplomatic privileges and immunity.
• Israel has long opposed UNRWA — and since the war began in Gaza, has claimed some of the agency's staff were involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. UNRWA fired nine staff members following a UN investigation, but has repeatedly denied allegations that the agency has widespread links to Hamas.
• During Trump's first term, his administration gradually cut all U.S. assistance to UNRWA. The Biden administration later resumed U.S. aid to the agency and supported its budget with hundreds of millions of dollars. But Congress passed a law in March that bans the U.S. from funding UNRWA until at least 2025.

What they're saying: UN officials said they're concerned that after the laws come into effect, UNRWA staff won't be able to move between Gaza and Israel, and the agency won't be able to carry out deconfliction arrangements with the IDF. It's also not clear if the IDF will treat the agency's facilities as part of the UN, which can't be targeted by Israeli forces under international law.

• That will put the ability of UNRWA to continue working in Gaza in jeopardy, UN officials said.
• A senior UNRWA emergency officer told The Guardian that social order in the Strip would likely collapse.

Behind the scenes: Last week, State Department officials briefed Joel Rayburn from the Trump transition team on the UNRWA situation, and raised "deep concern" about the new laws' implications for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, U.S. officials said.

• Rayburn, an experienced Middle East expert who is a former U.S. envoy to Syria, is expected to be named the incoming administration's Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs.
• "We wanted them to know what is going to happen 10 days into their presidency," a U.S. official told Axios. "We thought it was the responsible thing to do. It's a catastrophe waiting to happen."

Zoom in: U.S. officials told Axios that neither Israel nor the UN has made any serious plans for what happens next.

• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres refused over the last two months to engage in a discussion with Israel about alternative UN agencies that could take on some of UNRWA's roles, U.S. and Israeli officials said. A spokesperson for Guterres declined to comment.
• The Israeli government conducted several consultations about the UNRWA issue. But hasn't made any decision about what to do in Gaza after the laws come into force, a senior Israeli official told Axios.
• "Both sides are playing chicken, waiting for some magical solution — and thinking that if they do nothing, it will solve itself out," a U.S. official said. "But it won't."

In a letter to the members of the UN General Assembly in December, Guterres wrote that the cessation of or restrictions on UNRWA activities in Gaza and the West Bank would have "devastating consequences" for Palestinian refugees.

• "There is currently no realistic alternative to UNRWA which could adequately provide the services and assistance required," he wrote.
• UNRWA Director of Communications Juliette Touma told Axios the agency isn't going to shut down its operations on Jan. 31 when the law takes effect.
• "We plan to stay in Gaza and work as long as we can until we can't. It will be a disaster if the bill is implemented," Touma said. "Who is going to do the work?"

President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will join negotiations over a Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal on Wednesday in Doha.

Why it matters: Witkoff's trip is part of a last-minute effort by the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration to reach a deal to release hostages held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.

• Trump has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office.

Driving the news: At a press conference in Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, Witkoff said negotiators were "making a lot of progress" on a deal.

• "I'm really hopeful that by the inaugural, we'll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president," Witkoff said.
• Trump, who Wikoff described as "exasperated" when it comes to the Gaza deal, said on Tuesday that he doesn't want to say anything that could harm the negotiations but reiterated his threat.
• "If these hostages aren't back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East — it will not be good for Hamas or anybody else," Trump said.

100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

• If an agreement is reached, the first phase could include the release of 33 hostages — some who are still alive and some who are dead.
• The first phase is also expected to include a ceasefire in Gaza for a period of between six and seven weeks and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those who murdered Israelis.

State of play: An eight-day round of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas during the last week of December didn't lead to a breakthrough. U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators said they managed to make some progress but not enough to get a deal.

• Last Friday, Israeli negotiators returned to Doha for another round of talks with the mediators. Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk also joined the talks on Sunday.
• A U.S. official said McGurk and Witkoff talk regularly and the discussions are constructive. "These conversations are appropriate given the stakes and are what the American people should expect to be happening. We share the common aim to get the hostages out," the U.S. official said.
• An Israeli official said gaps remain between Israel and Hamas on almost all of issues being negotiated. He said that while it is going to be very hard to reach a deal by Jan. 20, there is "cautious optimism" that a deal could be reached in the next few weeks.

Yes, but: It isn't clear yet when Mossad director David Barnea is going to join the talks in Qatar. Israeli officials said not enough progress has been made to justify him going to Doha.

The other side: Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that the group and its supporters in Gaza are not afraid of Trump's threats "because they already live in hell" in Gaza.

• Hamadan said he doesn't think a deal will be reached by Jan. 20.
• Hamas official Ahmad Abdul Hadi told al-Mayadeen television network on Monday that the "decision is in Netanyahu's court" and reiterated Hamas' position that any deal would need to include an end to the war in Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal.

Behind the scenes: U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.

• The officials said Sinwar refuses to provide a list that clarifies which hostages that would be released in the first phase of the deal — which includes women, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 who are in serious medical condition — are still alive.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Iran's recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.

Why it matters: Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it's now a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.

State of play: Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the "maximum pressure" campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.

Behind the scenes: Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran's program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility.

• After Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November, Dermer came away thinking there was a high likelihood Trump would either support an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities — something the Israelis are seriously considering — or even order a U.S. strike, two sources who spoke with Dermer after the meeting tell Axios.
• Some top advisers to President Biden have privately argued in recent weeks for striking Iran's nuclear sites before Trump takes office, with Iran and its proxies so badly weakened by their war with Israel, sources familiar with those discussions told Axios.
• With Biden now down to his final two weeks, there are no active discussions about bombing Iran.

The flipside: Others close to Trump expect that he'll seek a deal before considering a strike.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Chinese TV last week that Iran is ready to resume negotiations with the U.S. and other world powers to get a new nuclear deal.
• Both sides would have to overcome years of animosity to work toward an agreement. For one thing, U.S. prosecutors accused Tehran of attempting to have Trump killed last year.

What they're saying: "Anything can happen," Trump told Time in November, when asked about the possibility of war with Iran. "It's a very volatile situation."

• "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week in Beijing.

Driving the news: Despite all of the crises on the global agenda, a senior diplomat who attended a virtual meeting of the G7 countries two weeks ago tells Axios it ended with the conclusion that Iran would be the primary issue to contend with in 2025.

• "Everyone agreed that we will have to do something or there will be a huge crisis," the diplomat said.
• That's not only because Iran has shrunk its nuclear breakout time down to a matter of days, but also because the ability of the Western powers to "snap back" crippling nuclear sanctions on Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal will expire in October.
• That means the U.S. and its European allies would lose much of their economic leverage over Iran, adding urgency to diplomatic efforts in the first half of the year.

Zoom in: Senior diplomats from the E3 (France, Germany and the U.K.) and Iran met in Geneva in late November to discuss the possibility of resuming nuclear negotiations.

• The European diplomats made clear the 2015 nuclear deal is null and void and a new deal would have to address the current status of Iran's nuclear program, a European diplomat and two other sources with knowledge of the meeting tell Axios.
• They also warned they would trigger "snapback" sanctions if a deal isn't reached by summer.
• The Iranians said that in such a scenario, Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and end all UN inspections and monitoring of its nuclear facilities.

What's next: Another E3-Iran meeting is scheduled for Jan. 13.

What they're saying: "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week.

The bottom line: Trump will take office with fewer options to contain or destroy Iran's program than he had in 2017, and less time to decide.

The State Department has notified Congress "informally" of an $8 billion proposed arms deal with Israel that will include munitions for fighter jets and attack helicopters as well as artillery shells, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios.

Why it matters: This will likely be the last weapons sale to Israel the Biden administration approves.

• It comes amid claims from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters in recent months that Biden had imposed a silent "arms embargo" on Israel.
• Some Democrats pushed the administration to condition arms sales to Israel based on Israel's handling of the war effort and the humanitarian situation in Gaza, but Biden declined to do so.
• This is a long-term agreement, according to the sources. Some production and delivery of the munitions can be fulfilled through current U.S. stocks, but the majority will take one or more years to deliver.

Zoom in: The sources said the arms sale — which needs approval from the House and Senate foreign relations committees — includes AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles for fighter jets to defend against airborne threats, including drones.

• The sale also includes 155mm artillery shells and Hellfire AGM-114 missiles for attack helicopters.
• The proposed deal also includes small diameter bombs, JDAM tail kits that turn "dumb bombs" to precision munitions, 500-lb warheads and bomb fuzes.

What they're saying: One source familiar with the arms sale said the State Department told Congress the deal is aimed at "supporting Israel's long-term security by resupplying stocks of critical munitions and air defense capabilities."

• "The President has made clear Israel has a right to defend its citizens, consistent with international law and international humanitarian law, and to deter aggression from Iran and its proxy organizations. We will continue to provide the capabilities necessary for Israel's defense," a U.S. official said.

President-elect Trump announced on Friday that he is appointing Morgan Ortagus, who served as State Department spokesperson in his first term, as deputy special presidential envoy for Middle East peace.

The intrigue: The appointment came with a rebuke. Trump noted that Ortagus came highly recommended but had criticized him in the past. "Early on Morgan fought me for three years, but hopefully has learned her lesson," Trump wrote.

Why it matters: Ortagus is a highly experienced national security and foreign policy expert and will be a significant reinforcement to the White House "Peace Team" that will face a turbulent region with an ongoing war in Gaza.

Driving the news: Ortagus will join a team led by Trump's close friend and confidant Steve Witkoff.

• During Trump's first term in office, Ortagus served as the State Department spokesperson under then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
• Before that, Ortagus worked for the Department of the Treasury as a financial intelligence analyst and also served as deputy U.S. treasury attaché to Saudi Arabia.
• She is an active U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer.

Behind the scenes: Ortagus is close to many senior Republicans like incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's envoy for special missions, Ric Grenell.

• She also worked closely with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner during Trump's first term in office, and they remain close.

Tension point: During the Republican presidential primary before the 2016 elections, Ortagus criticized Trump's "isolationist" foreign policy and his personal behavior.

• After noting that past criticism, Trump added that he decided to appoint Ortagus regardless of their differences because "she has strong Republican support."
• "I'm not doing this for me, I'm doing it for them. Let's see what happens," he added.

What to watch: The priority for Trump's "peace team" will be to get a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal if one isn't concluded by Jan. 20.

• They will have to work on ending the Gaza war and laying out a "day-after" plan that will include a massive reconstruction effort.
• Witkoff and Ortagus are also expected to work on one of Trump's main foreign policy goals — reaching a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
• Trump said he wants Witkoff and Ortagus to work on bringing "calm and prosperity" to the Middle East. "I expect great results, and soon!" he wrote.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: A U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear program during the lame duck period would be an enormous gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but who would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor. Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.

• Biden and his national security team discussed various options and scenarios during the meeting, which took place roughly one month ago, but the president did not make any final decision, according to the sources.
• A U.S. official with knowledge of the issue said the White House meeting was not prompted by new intelligence or intended to end in a yes or no decision from Biden. Instead, it was part of a discussion on "prudent scenario planning" of how the U.S. should respond if Iran were to take steps like enriching Uranium to 90% purity before Jan. 20, the official said.
• Another source said there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Behind the scenes: Some of Biden's top aides have argued internally that two trends —the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program, and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their war with Israel — together give Biden an imperative and an opportunity to strike.

• The sources said some of Biden's aides, including Sullivan, think that the degrading of Iran's air defenses and missile capabilities, along with the significant weakening of Iran's regional proxies, would improve the odds of a successful strike and decrease the risk of Iranian retaliation and regional escalation.
• The U.S. official said Sullivan did not make any recommendation to Biden on the issue, but only discussed scenario planning. The White House declined to comment.

The intrigue: One source said Biden honed in on the question of urgency, and whether Iran had taken steps that justify a dramatic military strike a few weeks before a new president takes office.

The other side: Iran has long denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon and stressed that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes.

• But in recent months, several former and current Iranian officials spoke publicly about the possibility of changing Iran's nuclear doctrine.
• "You can look at the public statements of Iranian officials, which have changed in the last few months as they have been dealt these strategic blows, to raise the question: Do we have to change our doctrine at some point? The fact that that's coming out publicly is something that has to be looked at extremely carefully," Sullivan said at a conference in New York two weeks ago.
• At the same event, Sullivan suggested the blows Iran and its proxies had received over the past year could push Tehran to seek a nuclear weapon. "It generates choices for that adversary that can be quite dangerous, and that's something we have to remain extremely vigilant about as we go forward," he said.

State of play: Iran's nuclear program has advanced dramatically during Biden's time in office, bringing Iran to the status of a de-facto "nuclear threshold state."

• Iran increased its Uranium enrichment to 60%, close enough to the 90% level needed to produce a nuclear weapon that Iran's advanced centrifuges could accomplish it in a matter of days.
• According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has enough 60%-enriched uranium to make four nuclear bombs.

Reality check: Even if Iran decided to build a bomb, it would need to develop a nuclear explosive device or warhead. Israeli intelligence believes that would take at least a year.

• An Israeli strike on Iran's Parchin military complex in late October also destroyed sophisticated equipment — dating back to before Iran ended its military nuclear program in 2003 — that would be needed to design and test a nuclear explosive device.
• Israeli officials believe that could create a crucial bottleneck if Iran does decide to build a bomb.

But U.S. and Israeli officials say that over the last year, Iranian scientists have conducted suspicious research related to nuclear weaponization — including computer modeling and metallurgy — that appears to be aimed at decreasing the time needed to develop a nuclear device in the event Iran's leaders elect to do so.

• The Biden administration sent a private warning to Iran last spring expressing serious concerns about Iranian nuclear research and development activities, U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
• The U.S. and Israel have both detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists in the past few months that some officials fear could be part of a covert Iranian effort to use the period around the U.S. presidential transition to make progress toward nuclear weaponization.

What's next: Sullivan said last month that the Biden administration had briefed President-elect Trump's team on the intelligence picture regarding Iran's nuclear program.

• "They may choose a different course, a different strategy, but I want to make sure we are starting from a common base of what we are facing with respect to the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program," he said.

The U.S. expressed concern to the new foreign minister of the transitional administration in Syria, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, about reports of violent attacks by militant groups around the country in recent days, U.S. officials said.

The big picture: The Assad regime's fall after five decades in power and 13 years of civil war left behind many armed groups, and many more grievances. The U.S. is concerned that violent reprisals by militants affiliated with the victorious rebels — targeting minority groups or members of the ousted regime — will undermine efforts to stabilize the country.

Catch up quick: Al-Shibani is the right-hand man to Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is both the de facto ruler of Syria and the leader of the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the strongest armed group in Syria today.

• HTS is a Sunni Islamist organization that was affiliated in the past with al-Qaeda.
• Al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has assured U.S. and Western leaders that he and HTS are now more moderate, and he appealed for sanctions imposed on Syria under Bashar al-Assad to be revoked.
• Last week, U.S. diplomats met al-Sharaa for the first time and told him a $10 million bounty on his head had been canceled.

Driving the news: Armed clashes between militants affiliated with the Assad regime and policemen affiliated with the new administration took place last week in the city of Tartus. Fourteen policemen and several militants were killed, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry.

• Tartus and the wider coastal region are predominantly Alawite. The minority Islamic sect makes up around 10% of Syria's population, but much of the now-ousted ruling elite, including the Assad family.
• Some Alawites and members of the Kurdish and Druze minority groups have expressed concerns they will become targets.

Several videos circulating on social media purport to show armed militants — allegedly affiliated with HTS or the security forces of the new government— beating, cursing and humiliating Alawite men while arresting them, or otherwise making threats toward Alawites.

• Axios obtained several such videos, including some showing graphic violence, but has not been able to confirm their authenticity.
• A U.S. official told Axios the State Department is aware of such videos and has been looking into reports of such incidents.

Behind the scenes: On Sunday, State Department envoy Daniel Rubinstein visited Damascus and met al-Shibani, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

• Rubinstein told al-Shibani the U.S. is concerned about the reports of violence, retribution and intimidation against minorities, and that such attacks must stop.
• Al-Shibani said the transitional administration opposes such violence and claimed it was mostly done by other armed groups, not HTS.
• A U.S. official told Axios that al-Sharaa and the transitional administration are trying to get things under control by demobilizing militias and integrating them under a new and united Syrian army.
• The official stressed the new Syrian administration needs to get the situation under control because if these violent incidents continue it could increase internal tensions and allow elements affiliated with the Assad regime or even ISIS to inflame a new conflict in the country.

State of play: Al-Sharaa has made several recent appointments to key positions in the transitional government, many of whom were close confidantes drawn from his administration in the HTS-controlled city of Idlib.

• One of the conditions the U.S. and Arab countries have laid out for the new Syrian government to get international recognition was that the government be inclusive.
• Al-Sharaa was asked about this during an interview with Al Arabiya on Sunday and claimed he made the appointments just for the immediate term to get the country functioning again as soon as possible.
• While al-Sharaa stressed he wants to start a national dialogue as soon as possible to form a new government in March, he also made clear that it needs to be a technocratic government, which is not based on political parties or sectarian quotas.

What to watch: Al-Sharaa surprised many when he said the process of drafting a new constitution could last up to three years and that elections could be held only four years from now.

• U.S. envoy Rubinstein asked the new Syrian foreign minister for more details of those plans during their meeting on Sunday, a U.S. official said.

What they're saying: A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. is in an ongoing dialogue with HTS. The spokesperson said he can't discuss private diplomatic conversations in public, but stressed the discussions so far have been "productive" and have covered both domestic and international issues.

• "We believe HTS should respect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of all Syrians, including members of minority groups and women. We will be continuing to watch and see that actions match words," the spokesperson said.

Israeli and U.S. officials involved in the negotiations for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal tell Axios they are concerned that the odds of an agreement before President Trump takes office are slim.

Why it matters: Trump threatened that there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas did not release the hostages held in Gaza by Jan. 20. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office.

Between the lines: It isn't clear what Trump meant by "hell to pay." A source close to the president-elect said there is no plan for what to do if Trump's deadline is crossed.

• Some Israeli officials think that if a deal isn't struck, the incoming president could support Israeli measures that the Biden administration opposed, like limiting humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
• U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.
• However one U.S. source with direct knowledge of the talks said there is still a likelihood of a deal in the next three weeks.

Threat level: U.S. and Israeli officials say that if negotiations don't bear fruit by Jan. 20, the transition to Trump would likely push talks back, possibly by several months. That could cost the lives of more hostages.

• 100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

Driving the news: Israeli negotiators returned from Doha earlier this week after eight days of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt didn't lead to a breakthrough.

• CIA director Bill Burns and White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who were also in Doha for several days last week, returned to Washington skeptical about the chances of reaching a deal before Jan. 20.
• On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas traded accusations about who bears responsibility for the lack of progress.
• Hamas claimed that while it negotiated seriously, Israel presented unacceptable new demands.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contended Hamas was lying and was in fact "reneging on understandings that have already been reached."

State of play: Israeli officials with direct knowledge of the talks said both sides are right.

• While some progress was made in Doha last week, fundamental issues are unresolved, such as whether any deal would involve an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
• One Israeli official said the negotiations did not explode but are stuck, with both parties wanting to break the logjam but unwilling to make major concessions.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu argued in meetings on Wednesday after the Israeli delegation returned from Doha that it is not clear with whom Israel is negotiating — Sinwar in Gaza, or the more pragmatic political representatives in Doha.

• "We don't know who really calls the shots," Netanyahu said, according to a person who attended one of those meetings.
• That source said Netanyahu emphasized that Sinwar refuses to provide the names of the hostages who are still alive and could be released in the first phase of the deal. That phase would cover women, men over 50, and others who are in bad medical condition.
• "I am not willing to enter into a deal without knowing what the deal is about and what I am getting," Netanyahu said, according to the source.

The other side: A Hamas official quoted by the Qatari website al-Araby al-Jadeed said Hamas is willing to provide a list of hostages but has struggled to contact all the different factions in Gaza who are holding them.

• The Hamas official stressed that would become easier once a ceasefire was in place, and denied any gaps exist between Hamas' military and political wings.

What's next: An Israeli official said that Netanyahu will consult with his negotiating team over the next few days about the path forward.