The Lebanese Parliament on Thursday elected the commander of the Lebanese armed forces Gen. Joseph Aoun as the country's next president.

Why it matters: Lebanon hasn't had a president for more than two years while the country's leaders tried to reach consensus on a candidate, which has exacerbated Lebanon's deep political and economic crisis.

• Aoun is an ally of the U.S. and has worked closely with the U.S. military for years.
• His election is a big achievement for the Biden administration, which privately lobbied for Aoun and has been pushing to use the weakening of Hezbollah in the war with Israel to break the logjam around the election of a new Lebanese president.

Driving the news: Aoun needed at least 86 votes from lawmakers in order to bypass a law that requires military officers to wait two years before running for office.

• In the first round of voting on Thursday morning, Aoun didn't get enough votes because several lawmakers affiliated with the Shiite Amal party and Hezbollah abstained.
• Aoun then met with the lawmakers and assured them that the next Lebanese government would have enough representation for the Shia community.
• Shortly after, a second vote was held with Aoun winning 99 votes out of 128 lawmakers.

Behind the scenes: The U.S., France and Saudi Arabia worked together in recent weeks to push for the election of a new Lebanese president.

• The three countries didn't publicly call for Auon's election but in private they supported his candidacy and claimed he was the only consensus candidate, sources with knowledge of the discussion said.
• Earlier this week, Biden's envoy Amos Hochstein met in Beirut with Aoun as well as key political leaders and dozens of Lebanese lawmakers to discuss the presidential election.
• The breakthrough came on Wednesday when Suleiman Frangieh, the candidate supported by Hezbollah, dropped out of the race and announced his support for Aoun.

The big picture: U.S. officials said the end of the deadlock can be attributed largely to Hezbollah and its Iranian backers being in an extremely weak position after suffering loses in the war with Israel and the Assad regime being toppled in Syria.

• Hezbollah had to abandon its veto over any candidate who is not Frangieh and the Iranians didn't interfere in the process, a U.S. official said.
• Aoun's election is likely to increase Western support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese armed forces redeployed to southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire deal with Israel.
• Aoun's victory would also likely increase U.S. and European pressure on Israel to conclude its withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the end of the initial 60-day ceasefire period, which will end in three weeks.

What they're saying: Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon for the election of a new president.

• "I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations," he said.

In a speech after his election, Aoun said Lebanon under his presidency will be committed to the rule of law and that he will make sure the right to carry weapons will be exclusive to the state.

• He said Lebanon will respect the ceasefire agreement with Israel and its other international obligations.
• Aoun said Lebanon's foreign policy will be of "positive neutrality" and that the country will work to improve relations with the West and the East based on "mutual respect and on maintaining Lebanon's sovereignty and independent decision."

State Department officials told the Trump administration transition team there could be a humanitarian "catastrophe" in Gaza when a new Israeli law barring contact with the UN refugee agency for Palestinians takes effect at the end of the month, three U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is the primary aid agency operating in Gaza. U.S. officials say there's no serious backup plan for providing humanitarian supplies and services to Palestinians.

• After more than a year of war, the UN and other aid organizations warn Gaza is close to uninhabitable. Tens of thousands of houses have been destroyed. Nearly two million Palestinians are displaced and dependent on aid for food, water and medical services.
• The Israeli law will take effect a few days after President-elect Trump's inauguration, when the new administration will be faced with mounting world crises.
• Biden administration officials told Axios they initiated the briefing about UNRWA because they wanted the new administration to be aware of the looming crisis.

Catch up quick: In late October, the Israeli parliament passed two bills that would significantly limit UNRWA's ability to continue operating in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

• The first bill bars UNRWA from operating in Israeli territory, and is most relevant to UNRWA's activity in East Jerusalem. But it also affects the aid agency's operations in the West Bank that are run from Jerusalem.
• The second bill bars any Israeli government official from having contact with UNRWA, and strips all UNRWA workers of their diplomatic privileges and immunity.
• Israel has long opposed UNRWA — and since the war began in Gaza, has claimed some of the agency's staff were involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. UNRWA fired nine staff members following a UN investigation, but has repeatedly denied allegations that the agency has widespread links to Hamas.
• During Trump's first term, his administration gradually cut all U.S. assistance to UNRWA. The Biden administration later resumed U.S. aid to the agency and supported its budget with hundreds of millions of dollars. But Congress passed a law in March that bans the U.S. from funding UNRWA until at least 2025.

What they're saying: UN officials said they're concerned that after the laws come into effect, UNRWA staff won't be able to move between Gaza and Israel, and the agency won't be able to carry out deconfliction arrangements with the IDF. It's also not clear if the IDF will treat the agency's facilities as part of the UN, which can't be targeted by Israeli forces under international law.

• That will put the ability of UNRWA to continue working in Gaza in jeopardy, UN officials said.
• A senior UNRWA emergency officer told The Guardian that social order in the Strip would likely collapse.

Behind the scenes: Last week, State Department officials briefed Joel Rayburn from the Trump transition team on the UNRWA situation, and raised "deep concern" about the new laws' implications for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, U.S. officials said.

• Rayburn, an experienced Middle East expert who is a former U.S. envoy to Syria, is expected to be named the incoming administration's Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs.
• "We wanted them to know what is going to happen 10 days into their presidency," a U.S. official told Axios. "We thought it was the responsible thing to do. It's a catastrophe waiting to happen."

Zoom in: U.S. officials told Axios that neither Israel nor the UN has made any serious plans for what happens next.

• UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres refused over the last two months to engage in a discussion with Israel about alternative UN agencies that could take on some of UNRWA's roles, U.S. and Israeli officials said. A spokesperson for Guterres declined to comment.
• The Israeli government conducted several consultations about the UNRWA issue. But hasn't made any decision about what to do in Gaza after the laws come into force, a senior Israeli official told Axios.
• "Both sides are playing chicken, waiting for some magical solution — and thinking that if they do nothing, it will solve itself out," a U.S. official said. "But it won't."

In a letter to the members of the UN General Assembly in December, Guterres wrote that the cessation of or restrictions on UNRWA activities in Gaza and the West Bank would have "devastating consequences" for Palestinian refugees.

• "There is currently no realistic alternative to UNRWA which could adequately provide the services and assistance required," he wrote.
• UNRWA Director of Communications Juliette Touma told Axios the agency isn't going to shut down its operations on Jan. 31 when the law takes effect.
• "We plan to stay in Gaza and work as long as we can until we can't. It will be a disaster if the bill is implemented," Touma said. "Who is going to do the work?"

President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will join negotiations over a Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal on Wednesday in Doha.

Why it matters: Witkoff's trip is part of a last-minute effort by the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration to reach a deal to release hostages held by Hamas and establish a ceasefire in Gaza before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.

• Trump has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office.

Driving the news: At a press conference in Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, Witkoff said negotiators were "making a lot of progress" on a deal.

• "I'm really hopeful that by the inaugural, we'll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president," Witkoff said.
• Trump, who Wikoff described as "exasperated" when it comes to the Gaza deal, said on Tuesday that he doesn't want to say anything that could harm the negotiations but reiterated his threat.
• "If these hostages aren't back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East — it will not be good for Hamas or anybody else," Trump said.

100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

• If an agreement is reached, the first phase could include the release of 33 hostages — some who are still alive and some who are dead.
• The first phase is also expected to include a ceasefire in Gaza for a period of between six and seven weeks and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those who murdered Israelis.

State of play: An eight-day round of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas during the last week of December didn't lead to a breakthrough. U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators said they managed to make some progress but not enough to get a deal.

• Last Friday, Israeli negotiators returned to Doha for another round of talks with the mediators. Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk also joined the talks on Sunday.
• A U.S. official said McGurk and Witkoff talk regularly and the discussions are constructive. "These conversations are appropriate given the stakes and are what the American people should expect to be happening. We share the common aim to get the hostages out," the U.S. official said.
• An Israeli official said gaps remain between Israel and Hamas on almost all of issues being negotiated. He said that while it is going to be very hard to reach a deal by Jan. 20, there is "cautious optimism" that a deal could be reached in the next few weeks.

Yes, but: It isn't clear yet when Mossad director David Barnea is going to join the talks in Qatar. Israeli officials said not enough progress has been made to justify him going to Doha.

The other side: Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that the group and its supporters in Gaza are not afraid of Trump's threats "because they already live in hell" in Gaza.

• Hamadan said he doesn't think a deal will be reached by Jan. 20.
• Hamas official Ahmad Abdul Hadi told al-Mayadeen television network on Monday that the "decision is in Netanyahu's court" and reiterated Hamas' position that any deal would need to include an end to the war in Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal.

Behind the scenes: U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.

• The officials said Sinwar refuses to provide a list that clarifies which hostages that would be released in the first phase of the deal — which includes women, men over the age of 50, and men under the age of 50 who are in serious medical condition — are still alive.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Iran's recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.

Why it matters: Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it's now a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.

State of play: Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the "maximum pressure" campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.

Behind the scenes: Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran's program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility.

• After Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November, Dermer came away thinking there was a high likelihood Trump would either support an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities — something the Israelis are seriously considering — or even order a U.S. strike, two sources who spoke with Dermer after the meeting tell Axios.
• Some top advisers to President Biden have privately argued in recent weeks for striking Iran's nuclear sites before Trump takes office, with Iran and its proxies so badly weakened by their war with Israel, sources familiar with those discussions told Axios.
• With Biden now down to his final two weeks, there are no active discussions about bombing Iran.

The flipside: Others close to Trump expect that he'll seek a deal before considering a strike.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Chinese TV last week that Iran is ready to resume negotiations with the U.S. and other world powers to get a new nuclear deal.
• Both sides would have to overcome years of animosity to work toward an agreement. For one thing, U.S. prosecutors accused Tehran of attempting to have Trump killed last year.

What they're saying: "Anything can happen," Trump told Time in November, when asked about the possibility of war with Iran. "It's a very volatile situation."

• "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week in Beijing.

Driving the news: Despite all of the crises on the global agenda, a senior diplomat who attended a virtual meeting of the G7 countries two weeks ago tells Axios it ended with the conclusion that Iran would be the primary issue to contend with in 2025.

• "Everyone agreed that we will have to do something or there will be a huge crisis," the diplomat said.
• That's not only because Iran has shrunk its nuclear breakout time down to a matter of days, but also because the ability of the Western powers to "snap back" crippling nuclear sanctions on Iran under the 2015 nuclear deal will expire in October.
• That means the U.S. and its European allies would lose much of their economic leverage over Iran, adding urgency to diplomatic efforts in the first half of the year.

Zoom in: Senior diplomats from the E3 (France, Germany and the U.K.) and Iran met in Geneva in late November to discuss the possibility of resuming nuclear negotiations.

• The European diplomats made clear the 2015 nuclear deal is null and void and a new deal would have to address the current status of Iran's nuclear program, a European diplomat and two other sources with knowledge of the meeting tell Axios.
• They also warned they would trigger "snapback" sanctions if a deal isn't reached by summer.
• The Iranians said that in such a scenario, Iran would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and end all UN inspections and monitoring of its nuclear facilities.

What's next: Another E3-Iran meeting is scheduled for Jan. 13.

What they're saying: "2025 will be an important year regarding Iran's nuclear issue," Araghchi said last week.

The bottom line: Trump will take office with fewer options to contain or destroy Iran's program than he had in 2017, and less time to decide.

The State Department has notified Congress "informally" of an $8 billion proposed arms deal with Israel that will include munitions for fighter jets and attack helicopters as well as artillery shells, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios.

Why it matters: This will likely be the last weapons sale to Israel the Biden administration approves.

• It comes amid claims from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters in recent months that Biden had imposed a silent "arms embargo" on Israel.
• Some Democrats pushed the administration to condition arms sales to Israel based on Israel's handling of the war effort and the humanitarian situation in Gaza, but Biden declined to do so.
• This is a long-term agreement, according to the sources. Some production and delivery of the munitions can be fulfilled through current U.S. stocks, but the majority will take one or more years to deliver.

Zoom in: The sources said the arms sale — which needs approval from the House and Senate foreign relations committees — includes AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles for fighter jets to defend against airborne threats, including drones.

• The sale also includes 155mm artillery shells and Hellfire AGM-114 missiles for attack helicopters.
• The proposed deal also includes small diameter bombs, JDAM tail kits that turn "dumb bombs" to precision munitions, 500-lb warheads and bomb fuzes.

What they're saying: One source familiar with the arms sale said the State Department told Congress the deal is aimed at "supporting Israel's long-term security by resupplying stocks of critical munitions and air defense capabilities."

• "The President has made clear Israel has a right to defend its citizens, consistent with international law and international humanitarian law, and to deter aggression from Iran and its proxy organizations. We will continue to provide the capabilities necessary for Israel's defense," a U.S. official said.

President-elect Trump announced on Friday that he is appointing Morgan Ortagus, who served as State Department spokesperson in his first term, as deputy special presidential envoy for Middle East peace.

The intrigue: The appointment came with a rebuke. Trump noted that Ortagus came highly recommended but had criticized him in the past. "Early on Morgan fought me for three years, but hopefully has learned her lesson," Trump wrote.

Why it matters: Ortagus is a highly experienced national security and foreign policy expert and will be a significant reinforcement to the White House "Peace Team" that will face a turbulent region with an ongoing war in Gaza.

Driving the news: Ortagus will join a team led by Trump's close friend and confidant Steve Witkoff.

• During Trump's first term in office, Ortagus served as the State Department spokesperson under then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
• Before that, Ortagus worked for the Department of the Treasury as a financial intelligence analyst and also served as deputy U.S. treasury attaché to Saudi Arabia.
• She is an active U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer.

Behind the scenes: Ortagus is close to many senior Republicans like incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's envoy for special missions, Ric Grenell.

• She also worked closely with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner during Trump's first term in office, and they remain close.

Tension point: During the Republican presidential primary before the 2016 elections, Ortagus criticized Trump's "isolationist" foreign policy and his personal behavior.

• After noting that past criticism, Trump added that he decided to appoint Ortagus regardless of their differences because "she has strong Republican support."
• "I'm not doing this for me, I'm doing it for them. Let's see what happens," he added.

What to watch: The priority for Trump's "peace team" will be to get a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal if one isn't concluded by Jan. 20.

• They will have to work on ending the Gaza war and laying out a "day-after" plan that will include a massive reconstruction effort.
• Witkoff and Ortagus are also expected to work on one of Trump's main foreign policy goals — reaching a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
• Trump said he wants Witkoff and Ortagus to work on bringing "calm and prosperity" to the Middle East. "I expect great results, and soon!" he wrote.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: A U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear program during the lame duck period would be an enormous gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but who would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor. Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.

• Biden and his national security team discussed various options and scenarios during the meeting, which took place roughly one month ago, but the president did not make any final decision, according to the sources.
• A U.S. official with knowledge of the issue said the White House meeting was not prompted by new intelligence or intended to end in a yes or no decision from Biden. Instead, it was part of a discussion on "prudent scenario planning" of how the U.S. should respond if Iran were to take steps like enriching Uranium to 90% purity before Jan. 20, the official said.
• Another source said there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Behind the scenes: Some of Biden's top aides have argued internally that two trends —the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program, and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their war with Israel — together give Biden an imperative and an opportunity to strike.

• The sources said some of Biden's aides, including Sullivan, think that the degrading of Iran's air defenses and missile capabilities, along with the significant weakening of Iran's regional proxies, would improve the odds of a successful strike and decrease the risk of Iranian retaliation and regional escalation.
• The U.S. official said Sullivan did not make any recommendation to Biden on the issue, but only discussed scenario planning. The White House declined to comment.

The intrigue: One source said Biden honed in on the question of urgency, and whether Iran had taken steps that justify a dramatic military strike a few weeks before a new president takes office.

The other side: Iran has long denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon and stressed that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes.

• But in recent months, several former and current Iranian officials spoke publicly about the possibility of changing Iran's nuclear doctrine.
• "You can look at the public statements of Iranian officials, which have changed in the last few months as they have been dealt these strategic blows, to raise the question: Do we have to change our doctrine at some point? The fact that that's coming out publicly is something that has to be looked at extremely carefully," Sullivan said at a conference in New York two weeks ago.
• At the same event, Sullivan suggested the blows Iran and its proxies had received over the past year could push Tehran to seek a nuclear weapon. "It generates choices for that adversary that can be quite dangerous, and that's something we have to remain extremely vigilant about as we go forward," he said.

State of play: Iran's nuclear program has advanced dramatically during Biden's time in office, bringing Iran to the status of a de-facto "nuclear threshold state."

• Iran increased its Uranium enrichment to 60%, close enough to the 90% level needed to produce a nuclear weapon that Iran's advanced centrifuges could accomplish it in a matter of days.
• According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has enough 60%-enriched uranium to make four nuclear bombs.

Reality check: Even if Iran decided to build a bomb, it would need to develop a nuclear explosive device or warhead. Israeli intelligence believes that would take at least a year.

• An Israeli strike on Iran's Parchin military complex in late October also destroyed sophisticated equipment — dating back to before Iran ended its military nuclear program in 2003 — that would be needed to design and test a nuclear explosive device.
• Israeli officials believe that could create a crucial bottleneck if Iran does decide to build a bomb.

But U.S. and Israeli officials say that over the last year, Iranian scientists have conducted suspicious research related to nuclear weaponization — including computer modeling and metallurgy — that appears to be aimed at decreasing the time needed to develop a nuclear device in the event Iran's leaders elect to do so.

• The Biden administration sent a private warning to Iran last spring expressing serious concerns about Iranian nuclear research and development activities, U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
• The U.S. and Israel have both detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists in the past few months that some officials fear could be part of a covert Iranian effort to use the period around the U.S. presidential transition to make progress toward nuclear weaponization.

What's next: Sullivan said last month that the Biden administration had briefed President-elect Trump's team on the intelligence picture regarding Iran's nuclear program.

• "They may choose a different course, a different strategy, but I want to make sure we are starting from a common base of what we are facing with respect to the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program," he said.

The U.S. expressed concern to the new foreign minister of the transitional administration in Syria, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, about reports of violent attacks by militant groups around the country in recent days, U.S. officials said.

The big picture: The Assad regime's fall after five decades in power and 13 years of civil war left behind many armed groups, and many more grievances. The U.S. is concerned that violent reprisals by militants affiliated with the victorious rebels — targeting minority groups or members of the ousted regime — will undermine efforts to stabilize the country.

Catch up quick: Al-Shibani is the right-hand man to Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is both the de facto ruler of Syria and the leader of the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the strongest armed group in Syria today.

• HTS is a Sunni Islamist organization that was affiliated in the past with al-Qaeda.
• Al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has assured U.S. and Western leaders that he and HTS are now more moderate, and he appealed for sanctions imposed on Syria under Bashar al-Assad to be revoked.
• Last week, U.S. diplomats met al-Sharaa for the first time and told him a $10 million bounty on his head had been canceled.

Driving the news: Armed clashes between militants affiliated with the Assad regime and policemen affiliated with the new administration took place last week in the city of Tartus. Fourteen policemen and several militants were killed, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry.

• Tartus and the wider coastal region are predominantly Alawite. The minority Islamic sect makes up around 10% of Syria's population, but much of the now-ousted ruling elite, including the Assad family.
• Some Alawites and members of the Kurdish and Druze minority groups have expressed concerns they will become targets.

Several videos circulating on social media purport to show armed militants — allegedly affiliated with HTS or the security forces of the new government— beating, cursing and humiliating Alawite men while arresting them, or otherwise making threats toward Alawites.

• Axios obtained several such videos, including some showing graphic violence, but has not been able to confirm their authenticity.
• A U.S. official told Axios the State Department is aware of such videos and has been looking into reports of such incidents.

Behind the scenes: On Sunday, State Department envoy Daniel Rubinstein visited Damascus and met al-Shibani, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

• Rubinstein told al-Shibani the U.S. is concerned about the reports of violence, retribution and intimidation against minorities, and that such attacks must stop.
• Al-Shibani said the transitional administration opposes such violence and claimed it was mostly done by other armed groups, not HTS.
• A U.S. official told Axios that al-Sharaa and the transitional administration are trying to get things under control by demobilizing militias and integrating them under a new and united Syrian army.
• The official stressed the new Syrian administration needs to get the situation under control because if these violent incidents continue it could increase internal tensions and allow elements affiliated with the Assad regime or even ISIS to inflame a new conflict in the country.

State of play: Al-Sharaa has made several recent appointments to key positions in the transitional government, many of whom were close confidantes drawn from his administration in the HTS-controlled city of Idlib.

• One of the conditions the U.S. and Arab countries have laid out for the new Syrian government to get international recognition was that the government be inclusive.
• Al-Sharaa was asked about this during an interview with Al Arabiya on Sunday and claimed he made the appointments just for the immediate term to get the country functioning again as soon as possible.
• While al-Sharaa stressed he wants to start a national dialogue as soon as possible to form a new government in March, he also made clear that it needs to be a technocratic government, which is not based on political parties or sectarian quotas.

What to watch: Al-Sharaa surprised many when he said the process of drafting a new constitution could last up to three years and that elections could be held only four years from now.

• U.S. envoy Rubinstein asked the new Syrian foreign minister for more details of those plans during their meeting on Sunday, a U.S. official said.

What they're saying: A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. is in an ongoing dialogue with HTS. The spokesperson said he can't discuss private diplomatic conversations in public, but stressed the discussions so far have been "productive" and have covered both domestic and international issues.

• "We believe HTS should respect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of all Syrians, including members of minority groups and women. We will be continuing to watch and see that actions match words," the spokesperson said.

Israeli and U.S. officials involved in the negotiations for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal tell Axios they are concerned that the odds of an agreement before President Trump takes office are slim.

Why it matters: Trump threatened that there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas did not release the hostages held in Gaza by Jan. 20. President Biden also made mediating a deal a top priority for his final months in office.

Between the lines: It isn't clear what Trump meant by "hell to pay." A source close to the president-elect said there is no plan for what to do if Trump's deadline is crossed.

• Some Israeli officials think that if a deal isn't struck, the incoming president could support Israeli measures that the Biden administration opposed, like limiting humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.
• U.S. and Israeli officials say Hamas' top military leader in Gaza — Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — doesn't seem to be deterred by Trump's threat.
• However one U.S. source with direct knowledge of the talks said there is still a likelihood of a deal in the next three weeks.

Threat level: U.S. and Israeli officials say that if negotiations don't bear fruit by Jan. 20, the transition to Trump would likely push talks back, possibly by several months. That could cost the lives of more hostages.

• 100 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.

Driving the news: Israeli negotiators returned from Doha earlier this week after eight days of talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt didn't lead to a breakthrough.

• CIA director Bill Burns and White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who were also in Doha for several days last week, returned to Washington skeptical about the chances of reaching a deal before Jan. 20.
• On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas traded accusations about who bears responsibility for the lack of progress.
• Hamas claimed that while it negotiated seriously, Israel presented unacceptable new demands.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contended Hamas was lying and was in fact "reneging on understandings that have already been reached."

State of play: Israeli officials with direct knowledge of the talks said both sides are right.

• While some progress was made in Doha last week, fundamental issues are unresolved, such as whether any deal would involve an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
• One Israeli official said the negotiations did not explode but are stuck, with both parties wanting to break the logjam but unwilling to make major concessions.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu argued in meetings on Wednesday after the Israeli delegation returned from Doha that it is not clear with whom Israel is negotiating — Sinwar in Gaza, or the more pragmatic political representatives in Doha.

• "We don't know who really calls the shots," Netanyahu said, according to a person who attended one of those meetings.
• That source said Netanyahu emphasized that Sinwar refuses to provide the names of the hostages who are still alive and could be released in the first phase of the deal. That phase would cover women, men over 50, and others who are in bad medical condition.
• "I am not willing to enter into a deal without knowing what the deal is about and what I am getting," Netanyahu said, according to the source.

The other side: A Hamas official quoted by the Qatari website al-Araby al-Jadeed said Hamas is willing to provide a list of hostages but has struggled to contact all the different factions in Gaza who are holding them.

• The Hamas official stressed that would become easier once a ceasefire was in place, and denied any gaps exist between Hamas' military and political wings.

What's next: An Israeli official said that Netanyahu will consult with his negotiating team over the next few days about the path forward.

Top State Department officials visited Damascus on Friday and met with the leader of the opposition group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Ahmad al-Sharaa, U.S. officials said.

Why it matters: It was the first public meeting between U.S. diplomats and al-Sharaa, who led the Syrian revolution that toppled the Assad regime.

• The U.S. government has designated al-Sharaa, who is also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a terrorist and has a $10 million bounty on him.
• A U.S. official said the meeting with al-Sharaa was "good and productive."

Driving the news: U.S. assistant secretary of state for near east affairs Barbara Leaf said al-Sharaa committed to not allowing terror groups to operate in Syria and threaten the U.S. or neighboring countries.

• Leaf said that as a result, the U.S. made clear it won't pursue the $10 million "reward for justice" on al-Sharaa.
• Leaf said she had a "good, thorough going" discussion with al-Sharaa "on a range of regional issues, as well as the domestic scene."
• "I heard him on his priorities, which are very much rooted in getting Syria on the road to economic recovery," she said.
• Leaf said lifting the bounty is a policy decision "in the interest of beginning a discussion with HTS. If we are having a discussion it is incoherent to have a bounty on his head."

Catch up quick: The U.S. delegation arrived in Damascus on Friday morning local time under heavy security, U.S. officials said.

• It was the first visit by State Department officials to Syria in more than a decade.
• The trip was part of a resumption of U.S. diplomatic engagement with the transitional government in Syria after the toppling of the Assad regime.
• Leaf said al-Sharaa "came across as pragmatic" and expressed moderate positions on women's and minority rights. She stressed it was a good first meeting "but we will judge by deeds and not only by words."

Zoom in: The U.S. delegation was led by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf. She was accompanied by former U.S. envoy to Syria Daniel Rubinstein who will stay in Syria as the top U.S. diplomat on the ground.

• The State Department envoy for hostage affairs Roger Carstens also joined the delegation.
• One of the key issues the delegation discussed with al-Sharaa and other members of the transitional Syrian government was the search for missing U.S. journalist Austin Tice.

State of play: As the U.S. delegation was holding talks in Damascus, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it conducted an airstrike on Thursday targeting ISIS leader in Syria Abu Yusif.

• "Two ISIS operatives were killed, including Abu Yusif," CENTCOM said in a statement.
• CENTCOM said the strike was conducted "in an area formerly controlled by the Syrian regime and Russians."

What they're saying: CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla said the U.S. military will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute.

• "ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria. We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria," he said.

The State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, will travel to Damascus in the coming days, two U.S. officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: This will be the first visit by a State Department official to Syria in many years. The visit is part if a resumption of U.S. diplomatic engagement with the transitional government in Syria after the toppling of the Assad regime.

• Leaf is expected to meet Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of Sunni Islamist opposition group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the U.S. officials said.
• Leaf will be joined on her trip by former U.S. envoy to Syria Daniel Rubinstein. U.S. officials say Rubenstein, who retired from the State Department, was called back to service in order to serve at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, but after the collapse of the Assad regime was asked to go to Syria instead as the top U.S. diplomat on the ground.

State of play: Secretary of State Tony Blinken said last week that the U.S. has been in direct contact with HTS, which led the offensive that toppled dictator Bashar al-Assad.

• It was the first time the U.S. had publicly confirmed any direct contact with HTS, which it designates as a terrorist organization.
• Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan that the talks with HTS were focused on discussing the fate of American journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in Syria for 12 years.
• That conversation also included a discussion of the U.S. principles for potentially recognizing the new Syrian government, Blinken said.

Zoom out: The U.S. military has had an ongoing military presence in Syria since 2014 to counter ISIS.

• Pentagon Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday that there are currently 2,000 U.S. troops in the country — more than had previously been disclosed.
• 1,100 of those are "temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission requirements" and which were sent to Syria prior to Assad's fall, Ryder said.
• Ryder said he'd only learned of the 2,000 number "today."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Ryder's comments.

One of Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio's most challenging tasks won't be abroad but at home: Navigating a network of envoys nominated by President-elect Trump to manage key foreign policy issues directly out of the White House.

Why it matters: Rubio has extensive foreign policy and national security experience from his years in the Senate, but he isn't a member of Trump's inner circle. He'll have to fight for influence and for Trump's ear as the U.S. decides how to handle a range of conflicts and alliances around the world.

• Some key foreign policy issues are run from the White House in most administrations, but Trump has appointed numerous presidential envoys and given them many of the State Department's responsibilities.
• They've already started meeting with foreign diplomats and traveling to the regions they're assigned to work on.
• Rubio on the other hand has declined all requests by foreign diplomats and ministers to meet with him, saying he is focused on his confirmation process and staffing the State Department, three sources with direct knowledge told Axios.

Where it stands: Trump named his closest friend businessman Steve Witkoff to be the White House envoy for the Middle East. He'll focus on ending the war in Gaza, pushing for a historic U.S.-Israeli-Saudi "mega deal" and making progress on ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

• The president-elect appointed his in-law businessman Massad Boulus as his Arab world adviser. He is expected to work with Witkoff as the point of contact for the Palestinians and many other Arab countries.
• Trump's point-person on Russia-Ukraine diplomacy will be retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellog, who worked in the first Trump administration.
• Adam Boehler was appointed to be the presidential special envoy for hostage affairs. He is also going to work out of the White House and focus initially on Gaza. Previous hostage affairs envoys worked out of the State Department.

The intrigue: Trump appointed former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell as his presidential envoy for special missions. The president-elect said Grenell is going to focus on the "hottest spots around the world," including Venezuela and North Korea.

• Grenell was reportedly a top candidate for secretary of State.
• His broad job description could allow him to get involved in many other foreign policy files and step on the State Department's turf.
• A source with knowledge of the situation said Grenell would be best positioned to succeed Rubio if he leaves the administration in a year or two as many Trump administration insiders expect.

Behind the scenes: A source who spoke to Rubio recently said the incoming secretary of State isn't concerned about the numerous presidential envoys and thinks he has several advantages.

• Unlike the White House envoys, he'll have to be confirmed by the Senate, arguably giving him more authority.
• And, he will be leading a huge department with tens of thousands of people in hundreds of places around the world.
• Used right, it could give him power and influence.

Between the lines: Rubio wants to operate less like Rex Tillerson, Trump's first secretary of State, and more like Mike Pompeo.

• Tillerson was part of a faction inside the administration that feuded with some of the president's senior advisers. Pompeo, Trump's second secretary of State, successfully navigated Trump world and was seen as more of a team player, the source said.
• The source said the incoming secretary of State has a good personal relationship with Witkoff, who he has known for several years, and that Rubio wants to have a good relationship with Grenell as well, despite them vying for the same job.

What they're saying: "The world is on fire, and it will take a full court press to restore order. President Trump and Senator Rubio are working together to build out an all-star team to deliver on the America First agenda the country demanded in November," a Rubio spokesperson told Axios.

• The Trump transition team didn't respond to questions about the issue.

What to watch: Two sources with knowledge of Rubio's plans said he wants to focus on China and Latin America — two issues he is knowledgeable about and that have huge implications for domestic policies that will shape the economy and immigration.

• Trump hasn't appointed a presidential envoy for Iran, which is expected to be a key foreign policy issue in the coming year.
• Rubio is an Iran hawk and would likely want to play a major role.

The Biden administration asked Israel to approve U.S. military assistance to Palestinian Authority security forces for a wide-ranging operation the PA is conducting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Palestinian, U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The security operation to regain control in the city of Jenin and its refugee camp from militants is the largest conducted by Palestinian security forces in years.

• Palestinian and Israeli officials said the operation is focused on a local armed group that includes militants affiliated with both Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas. Both groups receive funding from Iran.
• "This operation is a make or break moment for the Palestinian Authority," one Palestinian official said.
• Palestinian and U.S. officials said Palestinian leadership launched the operation out of fear that Islamist militants — emboldened after armed rebels took control of Syria — could try to overthrow the Palestinian Authority.

Driving the news: The security situation in Jenin has been deteriorating for months as the Palestinian Authority's control has gradually weakened. Local militants took control of the Jenin refugee camp more than a year ago and Palestinian Authority security forces refrained from entering it.

• Last week, Palestinian security forces tried to arrest several PIJ and Hamas militants who stole Palestinian security forces vehicles and used them for an armed parade through the refugee camp.
• The arrest attempt failed after violence broke out between the militants and the Palestinian security forces.
• A day later, the militants detonated a car bomb near a police station in Jenin, wounding three Palestinian policemen and two civilians.

The latest: Over the past 72 hours, Palestinian security forces sent a large number of troops to Jenin, surrounding the refugee camp and beginning to raid it.

• At least three militants, among them one commander affiliated with PIJ, were killed and about 20 people were wounded. At least one civilian was killed by Palestinian security forces.
• Several members of the Palestinian security forces have been wounded as well.

Behind the scenes: Videos of the militants' armed parade, which were widely circulated on social media, and the car bomb attack stunned the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah, the Palestinian official and one U.S. official said.

• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas ordered the heads of the Palestinian security services to launch an operation in Jenin and take control of the refugee camp.
• The Palestinian official and the U.S. official said that after some of his security chiefs expressed reservations, Abbas told them that whoever disobeys his order would be fired.
• Palestinian and U.S. officials said Abbas' aides briefed the Biden administration and President-elect Trump's advisers in advance of the operation. U.S. security coordinator Gen. Mike Fenzel met with the Palestinian security chiefs ahead of the operation to go over their planning, the Palestinian official said.

Details: The official said the Palestinian Authority gave Fenzel a list of equipment and ammunition Palestinian security forces urgently needs. Israel needs to approve any military assistance to the PA.

• The Palestinian official said the militants in Jenin, who he claimed were funded by Iran, are better armed and equipped than the Palestinian security forces.
• "If the Palestinian security forces had the sufficient weapons the operation would have been over already," the official said.

State of play: Fenzel, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew and other Biden administration officials asked the Israelis to approve the urgent delivery of ammunition, helmets, bulletproof vests, radios, night vision equipment, explosive disposal suits and armored cars, Palestinian, U.S. and Israeli officials said.

• The Israelis approved the shipment when it was first requested last year but the Israeli government froze it after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Palestinian and U.S. officials said.
• The Biden administration also asked the Israeli government to release some of the Palestinian Authority's tax revenues it has frozen so the PA can pay the salaries of Palestinian security forces.

The Israeli security cabinet convened on Sunday to discuss the security situation in the West Bank.

• Approving the delivery of the military equipment to the Palestinian Authority is a political lightning rod for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• The White House and the U.S. Embassy in Israel didn't respond to requests for comment. The office of the Israeli Minister of Defense declined to comment.

Between the lines: Palestinian and U.S. officials said Abbas ordered the operation for two key reasons — to send a message to the incoming Trump administration that the Palestinian Authority is a reliable partner and to try to prevent what happened in Syria from happening in the West Bank.

• "It was a Syria effect. Abbas and his team were concerned that what happened in Aleppo and Damascus will inspire Palestinian Islamist group," one Palestinian official said.
• The Palestinian official said Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia support the operation in Jenin because they don't want to see "a Muslim-brotherhood style or an Iranian-funded takeover" of the Palestinian Authority.
• "It's a pivotal moment for the Palestinian Authority — either act like a state you say you are or go back to being an militant organization", the Palestinian official said.

Israel and Jordan conducted secret talks on Friday to coordinate about the situation in Syria, three Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime has left a fragile state, a chemical weapons stockpile and numerous different armed rebel groups, some of them Islamist organizations once affiliated with Al-Qaeda.

• Israeli forces are striking military sites across Syria and seized an area in the Golan Heights on the Syrian side of the border between the two countries. The Syrian mission to the United Nations says Israel's capture of the territory is a violation of Syria's sovereignty.
• Israel and Jordan, which also borders Syria, say they want to work together on their common security concerns about the situation in the country.
• Jordan is also a key mediator between Israel and the Syrian rebel groups, including the Sunni Islamist opposition group Hayʼat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) that led the revolution that toppled the Assad regime, an Israeli official said.

Behind the scenes: The director of the Israeli Shin Bet security agency and senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officers met on Friday with the director of the Jordanian general intelligence service, Ahmad Husni, and senior Jordanian military commanders, the Israeli officials said.

• Two Israeli officials said they discussed the situation in Syria and both Israel's and Jordan's engagement with the rebel groups that are now forming a transitional government.
• The officials said they also discussed the growing threat of weapons smuggling by Iran through Jordan to armed groups in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which could dramatically escalate violence in the Palestinian territory.
• The IDF, Shin Bet and Jordanian embassy in Washington, DC declined to comment.

Driving the news: Over the past 10 days, the Israeli military has begun occupying Syrian territory in a border zone established decades ago at the end of the Yom Kippur War. Israeli forces are also occupying several other strategic locations, including the Syrian military outpost on Mount Hermon, which is the highest point in the region.

• The Israeli military said it has conducted nearly 500 air strikes on Syrian military targets in Syria and destroyed most of the Syrian Air Force, Navy, air defense, missiles and rockets.
• The IDF also conducted strikes on facilities that were used in the past as part of the Syrian chemical weapons program.
• The IDF said the strikes were intended to prevent the weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist groups.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in their meeting on Thursday that the IDF will "temporarily" maintain control of the border area in Syria "until there is an effective force that will enforce the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement."

• The agreement between Israel and Syria established "a zone of separation" and called on both sides to disengage their forces.
• Senior Israeli officials said the IDF presence in the buffer zone would likely continue for several months and maybe longer.

The other side: The Syrian mission to the United Nations sent a letter to members of the UN security council protesting the Israeli actions. The letter was sent on Dec. 9 but was made public four days later.

• "At a time when the Syrian Arab Republic is witnessing a new phase in its history in which its people aspire to a state of freedom, equality, social justice, the rule of law, peace and stability, the Israeli occupation army has escalated its ongoing aggression on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic," the Syrian ambassador to the UN wrote.
• He stressed the occupation of the buffer zone and the air strikes are a violation of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement and a violation of Syrian sovereignty.
• "Syria renews its call on the United Nations and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities and take firm measures to compel Israel to immediately cease its ongoing attacks on Syrian territory, ensure that they are not repeated, and withdraw immediately according to the areas agreed upon in the Disengagement Agreement," the letter read.

HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara commented on Saturday for the first time about Israel's actions and called them "an unjustified escalation."

• He said Israel doesn't have any reason to cross the disengagement line, especially because Iran is no longer present in Syria is over and without its ally Assad will no longer be able to use Syria as a launching ground for attacks.
• "After years of war we can't afford getting into new conflicts. The top priority is reconstruction and stability and not getting dragged into conflicts that will bring more destruction," he said.
• He called on the international community to intervene and press Israel to respect Syrian sovereignty.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken said the U.S. has been in direct contact with Sunni Islamist opposition group HTS, which led the revolution that toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.

Why it matters: This is the first time the U.S. has publicly confirmed any direct contact with HTS, which it designates as a terrorist organization.

• Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan that the talks with HTS were focused on discussing the fate of American journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in Syria for 12 years.
• He said he also stressed U.S. principles for recognizing a future Syrian government.

Driving the news: Over the last few days, Blinken held talks in Turkey and Jordan about the situation in Syria.

• On Saturday, he held a joint meeting in Aqaba with the foreign ministers of Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and agreed on joint principles for recognizing any future government in Syria.

Blinken laid out the principles in his press conference:

• He said the transition process in Syria needs to be "Syrian led and Syrian owned and produce an inclusive and representative government."
• Rights of all Syrians including minorities and women should be respected, Blinken said.

He stressed humanitarian aid should be able to reach people who need it and added state institutions should deliver essential services to the Syrian people.

• "Syria should not be used as a basis for terrorist groups or others to threaten Syrian people its neighbours and the world," the secretary of state said.
• He stressed that chemical weapons stockpiles in Syria should be secured and safely destroyed.
• "Syria should have peaceful relations with its neighbors," he said.

Between the lines: Blinken also stressed that relevant organizations should have access to facilities that can help determine the fate of missing Syrian and foreign nationals and hold human rights abusers accountable.

What he's saying: "Our message to the Syrian people is: We want you to succeed and we are ready to help you do so", Blinken said.

President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and met Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), two sources with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

Why it matters: It was the first meeting between MBS and a member of the incoming Trump administration since the November elections.

• Trump appointed Witkoff, his best friend and one of his closest confidants, as his administration's Middle East envoy with the clear aim of sealing a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia — a process that started during the Biden administration.
• Trump wants the deal to include a historic peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and at least some progress toward ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sources with knowledge of Trump's thinking said.
• "I want a long lasting peace. I'm not saying that's a very likely scenario ... I want a peace where we don't have an October 7 in another three years. I'd like to see everybody be happy," Trump told Time magazine earlier this week.

Driving the news: Witkoff's trip to the region was part of a series of engagements Trump's advisers had with Middle East leaders in recent weeks.

• A source said Witkoff and MBS discussed the U.S.-Saudi relationship, the Gaza war, the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel and other issues.

Earlier this week Witkoff was in the United Arab Emirates for a crypto conference. Several months ago Witkoff partnered with Trump and established a crypto currency company called World Liberty Financial, Inc.

• During his visit to Abu Dhabi, Witkoff met with the Emirati national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed and discussed the war in Gaza, the turmoil in Syria and other regional issues, two sources said.

Trump's Middle East adviser and in-law Massad Boulos was also in the region this week and met in Doha with the prime minister of Qatar, a source with knowledge of the meeting said.

• Boulos met last Wednesday in Washington, DC, with King Abdullah of Jordan, another source said.
• The same day Boulos and Witkoff met in Washington, DC with the Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, who is prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's closest confidant, an Israeli official said.
• Trump's new special envoy for hostage affairs Adam Boehler is expected to visit Israel next week for the first time since he was appointed, a second Israeli official said.
• The Saudi embassy and the UAE Embassy in Washington, DC, Witkoff, Boulos and the Trump transition team declined to comment.

Catch up quick: Before the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the Biden administration was negotiating with Saudi Arabia and Israel on a mega-deal that would include a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

• The White House also wanted the mega-deal to include a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty and an agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation between the countries and thought if it was part of a broader deal, the U.S. Senate might be more likely to ratify the agreement.
• MBS concluded a mega-deal would only be politically possible under a Biden administration.
• But the Oct. 7 attacks derailed the negotiations. The ongoing war in Gaza and Lebanon, and the resulting demand from the Saudis that the agreement include steps toward creating a Palestinian state, turned the deal into a non-starter for both Israel and Saudi Arabia in the near term.

State of play: The Saudi crown prince and his senior advisers said in private and in public in recent months that they are still interested in reaching such an agreement but reiterated Saudi Arabia's one key condition: An Israeli commitment for an irreversible and time-bound path to establishing a Palestinian state.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far refused to agree to this demand. The prime minister and his senior advisers think that under Trump and with Israel's recent military wins over Iran and its proxies, the Saudis will drop their "Palestinian condition," two sources said.

What to watch: In his interview with Time magazine, Trump did not express support for the peace plan he presented during his first term, which was based on a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

• Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who is close to some of Trump's foreign policy team, told Axios the President-elect likely will revive his "Peace to Prosperity" plan as a cornerstone of its Middle East strategy.
• "This is key for facilitating a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It could also enable the end of the war in Gaza, help implement a day after reconstruction and security plan with strong Gulf support," he said.
• Trump was frustrated that he didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize when he brokered the Abraham Accords, according to several sources. Dubowitz said a mega-deal with Saudi Arabia could position him for the prize.

President-elect Trump did not commit to pursuing a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict, telling Time magazine in a new interview that it's only one of several options in the region.

Why it matters: Trump presented a peace plan in January 2020 that was based on a two-state solution. But he did not recommit to that proposal as his second term approaches.

• "I want a long lasting peace. I'm not saying that's a very likely scenario ... I want a peace where we don't have an October 7 in another three years. You can do it two state, but there are numerous ways it can be done. I'd like to see everybody be happy," he told Time.

Flashback: Trump's comments were similar to the position he presented publicly at the beginning of his first term, when he said he had no preference between a two-state solution or a one-state solution and would agree to whatever the Israelis and Palestinians decide.

• Trump said he prevented Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from annexing the occupied West Bank in his first term, but stopped short of saying whether he would do it again.
• "We'll see what happens," he said.

Driving the news: Trump said in the interview that Netanyahu knows he wants the war in Gaza to end.

• "I want everything to end. I don't want people from either side killed," he stressed.
• When asked if he trusts Netanyahu, Trump said: "I don't trust anybody".

The big picture: Asked about the possibility of a war with Iran, he said: "Anything can happen. It's a very volatile situation."

The director of the Israeli Mossad met with Qatar's prime minister in Doha on Wednesday for talks about a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal, according to two sources familiar with the visit.

Why it matters: The Mossad director's trip to Qatar was part of an effort to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas before the inauguration of President-elect Trump in January.

• David Barnea's visit comes after several months of deadlock in the negotiations and Qatar's decision to suspend its mediation efforts.
• The meeting is the second between the Mossad chief and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, following their meeting in Vienna in late November.

Driving the news: There are 100 hostages still being held in Gaza, including seven Americans. Israeli intelligence services believe roughly half of the hostages are still alive.

• Last week, Israel gave Hamas an updated proposal for a deal to release some of the remaining 100 hostages held by Hamas and begin a ceasefire in Gaza, two Israeli officials said.
• The updated framework is not significantly different from the proposal that was negotiated in August but didn't materialize. The focus now is on trying to implement mainly the first phase of that deal with some changes, Israeli officials said.
• The officials said Hamas has shown more willingness to be flexible and begin implementing even a partial deal.
• Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz told U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Wednesday that "there is a chance at the moment for a new deal that hopefully leads to the release of all hostages, including Americans."

Behind the scenes: Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz met on Wednesday in Washington, DC with the families of the American hostages held in Gaza, according to a source familiar with the issue.

• It was the first time since the presidential election that a senior member of the incoming Trump administration met with the families of the American hostages.
• On Tuesday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan met for the fifteenth time with the families and told them the Biden administration is working with Trump and his team to secure the safe release of all hostages.
• Biden and his advisers have been working closely with Trump's team in recent weeks to push for a deal that both leaders want before Biden's term ends and Trump takes office.
• Biden doesn't have much leverage over leaders in the region, but Trump's public demand for the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza puts pressure on Hamas, the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a deal.

What to watch: Sullivan is traveling to Israel, Egypt and Qatar this week in a last ditch effort to reach a deal before Trump's inauguration in less than six weeks.

• Two sources briefed about Sullivan's trip said he is planning to press the Israelis, Qataris and Egyptians to do what it takes to conclude the deal within days and start implementing it as soon as possible.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to travel to Israel, Egypt and Qatar this week in a last ditch effort to reach a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal before President-elect Trump's inauguration in six weeks, two sources with knowledge of the trip told Axios.

Why it matters: President Biden and his advisers have been working closely with Trump's team in recent weeks to push for a deal that both leaders want before Biden's term ends and Trump takes office.

• Biden doesn't have much leverage over leaders in the region, but Trump's public demand for the release of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza puts pressure on Hamas, the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a deal.
• "We're working very hard to get the hostages back and as you know Jan. 20 is a very big day," Trump said on Tuesday in a meeting with Israeli-American Judith Raanan, who was taken hostage by Hamas during the October 2023 attacks and held in Gaza for two weeks before the militant group released her.
• The are 100 hostages still being held in Gaza, including seven Americans. Israeli intelligence services believe roughly half of the hostages are still alive.

Driving the news: The White House said Sullivan will travel to the region on Wednesday and meet with Netanyahu on Thursday.

• Sullivan will meet with Israeli leaders to discuss a number of issues, including a hostage-release and ceasefire in Gaza deal, the latest developments in Syria, as well as Lebanon and Iran, White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett told Axios in a statement.
• He's then planning to travel to Cairo and Doha to meet Egyptian and Qatari leaders and discuss their mediation efforts.

Two sources briefed about Sullivan's trip said he is planning to press the Israelis, Qataris and Egyptian to do what it takes to conclude the deal within days and start implementing it as soon as possible.

• On Tuesday, Sullivan met for the fifteenth time with the families of the American hostages held in Gaza and told them the Biden administration is working with Trump and his team to secure the safe release of all hostages. He said "this remains a critical priority for President Biden," according to a statement by the families.
• Also on Tuesday, Israeli Shin Bet director Ronen Bar and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi visited Cairo and met with Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad and senior Egyptian military officials, according to a source familiar with the trip.
• One of the issues they discussed was the hostage-release and ceasefire deal.

State of play: Last week Israel gave Hamas an updated proposal for a deal to release some of the remaining 100 hostages held by Hamas and begin a ceasefire in Gaza, two Israeli officials said.

• The updated framework is not significantly different from the proposal that was negotiated in August but didn't materialize. The focus now is on trying to implement mainly the first phase of that deal with some changes, Israeli officials said.
• The officials said Hamas has shown more willingness to be flexible and begin implementing even a partial deal.
• "Until recently, the thinking in Israel was that Hamas doesn't want a deal — now it seems that there is a shift and that Hamas may have changed its mind," a senior Israeli official said.
• The Israeli official said there has been progress in the negotiations, but no understandings have been reached yet that would allow Israel and Hamas to move toward detailed negotiations on a final agreement.

What they're saying: White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday that "we are not on the verge of completion of a deal, but we think there is a chance to get a deal done. There is still work to do. Hamas remains the obstacle and we are pressing hard."

• "There is a chance of reaching a deal in the coming month before Biden ends his presidency," an Israeli official said.

The start of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-awaited testimony in his corruption trial on Tuesday brings more uncertainty to the chaos and conflict in the Middle East.

Why it matters: Netanyahu's testimony, which he repeatedly tried to postpone and is expected to go on for months, will be a pivotal moment in the prime minister's fight for political survival and for his personal freedom.

• It comes as he fights a war in Gaza, moves his forces into Syria as the Assad regime collapses and faces an international arrest warrant for war crimes.

Catch up quick: Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in November of 2019. He has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges.

• In case 4000, Netanyahu was charged with bribery for allegedly giving hundreds of millions of dollars in regulatory benefits to an Israeli telecommunications tycoon in return for favorable media coverage.
• In case 2000, he was indicted for fraud and breach of trust over an alleged deal with a newspaper publisher in another effort to secure favorable coverage.
• In case 1000, which involves Netanyahu allegedly taking $200,000 worth of cigars, champagne and jewelry from businessmen in return for promoting their interests, he was indicted for fraud and breach of trust.

Driving the news: The trial that began six months later has moved slowly, mostly because Netanyahu's lawyers stretched out witness interrogations and deployed delay tactics.

• In recent weeks, they claimed that if the prime minister testified for hours in a public building he could be targeted by a drone strike launched by the Houthis or by Iran.
• The judges in response made the rare move of relocating the trial from Jerusalem to a secure court room at the Tel Aviv District Court.
• Then, Netanyahu's lawyers claimed he won't be able to appear in court three times a week for six hours each time because he needs to be focused on the war in Gaza and other security matters. The judges agreed to make slight changes.
• Netanyahu's ally Knesset speaker Amir Ohana also tried to use his legal authority to delay the testimony but it was rejected by the judges.

Behind the scenes: In recent days, Netanyahu tried to use the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria as a reason to postpone his testimony.

• During a security cabinet meeting on Saturday, several ministers demanded the attorney general order the prosecutors to agree to postponing Netanyahu's testimony.
• The attorney general pushed back and warned the ministers of using political pressure to hamper the legal procedures.
• The security cabinet ministers then signed a joint letter to the judges asking them to postpone the testimony for reasons of national security. Their request was rejected.

What they're saying: On Monday evening, 12 hours before his testimony was set to begin, Netanyahu held a press conference for the first time in more than three months.

• He hurled accusations at the attorney general, the prosecutors and the police investigators. He claimed the trial was the result of a politically motivated "witch hunt" and will end with no convictions. And he attacked reporters for "publishing lies and fake news."
• Netanyahu denied he tried to delay his testimony and claimed he has been "waiting for eight years" since the investigations against him started to tell his side of the story.
• "I don't want to talk? Tomorrow I am talking," he said.

Between the lines: Netanyahu claimed for years, including in court, that he could run the country and be a defendant at the same time, and that it didn't pose any conflict of interest.

• But since he became prime minister again in late 2022, he's pushed for a judicial overhaul that could help his case, attacked the legal system, tried to pass bills that would diminish the state prosecution and attempted to delay his own testimony.

In recent months as Israel fought wars on several fronts, Netanyahu and his coalition took incremental steps to weaken Israel's democratic institutions.

• Several ministers in Netanyahu's coalition have publicly called on him to fire the attorney general.
• His coalition is trying to get a bill passed to expand immunity for lawmakers, which would make it much harder to indict politicians. The lawmaker pushing for the bill is himself under police investigation for exposing the identity of a Shin Bet secret agent.

The coalition is also pushing a law that gives immunity to members of the intelligence community who bypass the chain of command and send information directly to the prime minister.

• The bill was introduced after Netanyahu's spokesperson was arrested for allegedly stealing top secret intelligence and leaking it to the foreign press.

Netanyahu's and his allies are also pushing bills to shut down Israel's public broadcaster Kan and give the government control over TV ratings.

• Another bill would ban the formation of a national commission of inquiry into Israeli security failures around the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. A recent Channel 12 poll found 85% of Israelis want an investigation.

But the most consequential bill would make it easier to disqualify Arab-Israelis from running in the elections.

• It would likely drastically decrease voter turnout in the Arab community and make it impossible for Netanyahu's rivals to win an election.