They did it delicately, privately and belatedly. But some Cabinet members and top confidants warned President Trump that two pillars of his flood-the-zone strategy could backfire: tariffs and Elon Musk's budget-gutting.

Why it matters: Both moves hacked off allies — some Hill Republicans and Cabinet officials with cuts, Canada and Mexico with tariffs — and created the impression and reality of uncertainty or outright chaos.

Now, the public is weighing in:

1. Markets hate uncertainty and chaos. The S&P 500 is down 6.4% since Inauguration Day, and 3% since Election Day — one of the worst-performing major indices in the world. Most market signals are negative — partly because of a tech meltdown that's not entirely Trump-driven. But the uncertainty is the critical element. The uncertainty is the point.
2. Consumers are already losing confidence and pulling back on spending, weakening a key engine of the economy.
3. Several polls show a slump in Trump's popularity since he took office and launched his shock-and-awe plan to remake the U.S. government and the world order.

Today is Day 51 of Trump's term — halfway through the opening 100 days.

• "Ever since the election, Trump has been the master of the narrative," a Trump adviser told Axios' Marc Caputo. "We won every day. But this stock market fall is just different, no control. But it's just a detox — it'll get better."

A senior White House official tells us: "The market isn't great, not gonna lie. But the vibes are still good otherwise."

• Another White House official said Trump and his team "are adept at playing the long game, and we will not be dictated by a snapshot in time when there are so many indicators that show we're building a strong economy with staying power."
• The White House on Monday republished a Reuters list of a dozen companies looking at opening or expanding in the U.S. as tariffs loom.

What we're hearing: House and Senate Republicans are hyper-focused on avoiding a government shutdown at midnight Friday. And they're hopeful the stock market will trend back upward.

• "If the stock market looks like this in three weeks, we've got a problem," said a top consultant to Republican Senate and House candidates. "There's time. It's early."
• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) posted on X with a bear-red graphic of Monday's indexes: "The stock market is comprised of millions of people who are simultaneously trading. The market indexes are a distillation of sentiment. When the markets tumble like this in response to tariffs, it pays to listen."

Behind the scenes: Trump's team remains confident and aggressive, and contends not a minute has been wasted. The number of migrants trying to reach the U.S. by trekking through the Darién Gap jungle into Central America plunged 99% last month from February 2024, Bloomberg reported Monday.

• Trump and his aides are taking risks with eyes wide open — and we're told they're determined to persevere. They think the first 50 days couldn't possibly have gone better. An emboldened Trump is leaning into his instincts on every front.
• Trump's team cares most about the MAGA base, which is beyond delighted with the pace and scope of his move-fast-and-break-things approach.

Trump and his advisers recognize "that changing the globalized economic system, which has deindustrialized the United States, will create friction in the real economy," a top Republican insider told us.

• "To rebuild the U.S. civilian and defense industrial base that the globalists gave away to China will cause economic and market dislocation in the short term," the insider added. "It's a play for long-term results — like Reagan on deficits to win the Cold War."

Reality check: Some Cabinet members and congressional Republicans fear this painful "transition," Trump delicately labeled it Sunday in an interview with Fox News' Maria Bartiromo, could stall his agenda.

• It was that quote — Trump refusing to rule out a recession — that helped fuel Monday's market swoon as fears rose about a U.S. economic slowdown and the possible pocketbook effects of tariffs.
• "This big sell-off feels ugly, it feels nasty," Drew Pettit, an equity strategist at Citigroup, told the Financial Times. "We were coming off very high sentiment and very high growth expectations. All of this is just recalibrating to the new risks that are in front of us."

Between the lines: There's a messaging gap that's confusing the market, too. The same morning Trump was hedging on a possible recession, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on NBC's "Meet the Press" guaranteeing: "There's going to be no recession in America."

• Investors like one message from government — not a menu.

Axios' Ben Berkowitz and Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: The real "stagflation" risk, by Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown.

If you have time to tune into only one person to understand — and track — the interconnected MAGA media ecosystem, follow Donald Trump Jr.

Why it matters: There's no way to track all of the sources. So follow the power and influence. Don Jr. is deeply wired into every major player and most platforms, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen and Tal Axelrod write in an Axios AM Executive Briefing special report.

Don Jr., 47, is his father's conduit, whisperer and translator of MAGA. President Trump, for all his MAGA clout, has a more traditional media diet, heavy legacy media. Don Jr. eats it all.

• And Don gets credit for amplifying smaller voices of the MAGA faithful — with his father sure to see it. The president gets tweets printed out for him all the time. So he knows what base influencers — and his relatives — are saying.

Another reason to watch the son closely: He'll be a kingmaker if this presidency is considered a success. Vice President Vance, also a MAGA media leading man, is very close to Don Jr. Keep an eye on how much the Trump empire monetizes this presidency — some insiders think the profits could keep MAGA afloat forever.

• Three MAGA figures are particularly close to the extended Trump clan: Tucker Carlson, Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk and Breitbart's Matt Boyle.

Behind the scenes: Don Jr.'s podcast, "Triggered," singlehandedly drives droves of eyeballs to his favored candidates across the country. We're told he enjoys interviewing them on his show, or simply retweeting them.

• You can ask freshman Republican Sens. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Jim Banks of Indiana or Tim Sheehy of Montana about the power of Don Jr.'s channels.

💡 Later today: Paid Executive Briefing subscribers get a Zoom briefing by Jim, Mike and a special MAGA expert guest. Plus you'll get this week's 3,500-word special report on MAGA media, and our future MAGA specials. Subscribe here.

Three top political reporters — Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf — will be out July 8 with "2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America," based on 300+ interviews over 18 months.

• "The whole world was against me, and I won," President Trump told the authors in an interview 10 days before his second inauguration.

Why it matters: "2024" promises revelations about "how Trump and his advisers overcame a dozen primary challengers, four indictments, two assassination attempts, and his own past mistakes to defeat the Democrats."

The backstory: The three were colleagues at the Washington Post during the 2024 cycle. Amid Post travails, the trio scattered after the election:

• Dawsey is now a political investigations and enterprise reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Pager is a White House correspondent for the New York Times. And Arnsdorf is a senior White House reporter for the Post.

💭 Pager tells me: "We set out to write this book more than a year before Joe Biden met Donald Trump on the debate stage in Atlanta, because we felt uniquely situated to tell the behind-the-scenes of this historic rematch."

• Dawsey says the authors "obtained recordings and notes of many meetings and traveled across the country."
• Arnsdorf adds that after covering the campaigns in real time, the reporters retraced "every step once we knew the outcome, to pinpoint what really mattered. Even if you read all the daily news coverage published in 2024, you'll find something new on every page."

Go deeper.

In this city of little political agreement, there's consensus on one big thing: President Trump is picking more fights, with more action than mere words, with more lasting consequences than anyone expected.

Why it matters: Turns out, Trump wasn't bluffing about imposing 25% tariffs, about pardoning Jan. 6 criminals, or punishing Europe, or rewarding Russia, or growing executive power, or gutting the FBI, or filling his Cabinet with loyalists, or penalizing the media, or taking a wrecking ball to government.

In fact, in most cases, he's taking a more extreme approach than promised or expected.

• And he's picking big, new public fights that very few, if any, saw coming: Seize the Panama Canal, rename the Gulf, buy Greenland, bully Canada, turn Gaza into a glitzy Riviera, abolish USAID and kneecap the White House Correspondents' Association.

"We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in four years or eight years," Trump boasted as he began Tuesday night's address to Congress. "And we are just getting started," he said, describing his opening weeks as "nothing but swift and unrelenting action."

• It was a speech on steroids — 9,900 words! At 100 minutes, Trump broke the record for a presidential address to Congress, besting President Bill Clinton's marathon 2000 State of the Union address by 11 minutes.
• Talking about tariffs, Trump said: "There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that."

The big picture: So much has been set in motion so fast, on so many fronts, that it's hard for Trump's own White House to implement and explain much of it, officials tell us. Trump and his MAGA supporters love it.

• But many elected Republicans we talk to privately worry it could just be too much — too much to navigate, and too much risk to the two things people care most about: their personal finances and security.
• Trump remains relatively popular. His sway over Republican elected officials and MAGA media is stronger than ever. And few Republicans with clout protest anything he does in any serious, sustained public way. Indeed, most take to X or Fox News to applaud even moves they privately question or dislike. So his confidence isn't misplaced, aides tell us.

Behind the scenes: So far, Trump's White House shrugs at concerns and complaints. If anything, aides' collective confidence is on steroids, too. They admit few mistakes, express zero regrets, and believe wholeheartedly they're right and critics are wrong. But Trump's advisers and friends outside of the White House feel less certain.

• "Of course I'm worried," one top Trump adviser, who spoke with the president recently at Mar-a-Lago, told Axios' Marc Caputo. "We're still in the honeymoon phase here. But the stock market and that data and the noise from Elon [Musk] aren't great."
• The adviser added: "He was so confident and at ease that I started to believe I shouldn't be bedwetting."

Trump's surround sound: Trump is killing it — if you tune into MAGA media. Axios' Tal Axelrod, our MAGA media expert, said the major right-wing platforms and podcasts, including Steve Bannon's "War Room" and Jack Posobiec, lit up this week with victory cries on Ukraine and tariffs.

Nevertheless, risks for Trump are rising:

• The stock market fell sharply on Monday when Trump announced he'd press ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then had another big drop Tuesday after they kicked in at midnight.
• Stoking fears of inflation, Target warned shoppers Tuesday that prices would rise because of the tariffs Trump slapped on China.
• Last week, consumer confidence plummeted to an eight-month low amid concerns about Trump's trade and tariff policies.
• Three polls in the past three days have shown Americans questioning whether Trump's keeping his eye on the ball: 82% of U.S. adults said the economy should be a high priority but only 36% thought he was prioritizing that "a lot," CBS News polling found. Only 31% of U.S. adults in a Reuters/Ipsos poll approved of Trump's handling of the cost of living. 52% of U.S. adults in a CNN poll said Trump hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems.

Around the world, old allies are flinching or fleeing:

• To understand the totality of the simultaneous fights of Trump's choosing, consider the nations we have more tension with now than 44 days ago: Ukraine, Canada, Mexico, Denmark (via Greenland), Germany, Britain, France and Panama.
• Trump can rightly argue that relationships are better with Israel, the Saudis and Russia. But it's old allies turning so quickly into skeptics or potential adversaries that's disrupting geopolitical calculations.

Isolate on Canada: Trump has upended relations in radical ways. America's northern neighbor is now dramatically more feisty, more anti-American and more pro-Liberal Party than it was when Trump took office. We're now locked in a trade war that could hurt some U.S. consumers and, by Canadians' own appraisal, devastate their economy.

• Trump wants big tariffs and, he keeps suggesting, to make Canada the 51st state. Canada's response: a big middle finger to the USA, promising retaliatory tariffs and strafing Trump's "very dumb" trade war.
• Trump sees Canada as an insignificant global player and weak neighbor, and incapable of winning a trade war with us, officials say. He's indifferent to prior tight relations, or cooperation, or concerns of fraying partnership, the officials tell us

You could insert Germany or Ukraine or France or Britain into the sentences above, and the same holds true.

• Trump truly believes most relationships or agreements are transactional. So he's fine being feared or loathed for trying to bully and bluster the best possible deal for America, according to these insiders.

Interestingly, the one area where Trump has been less vocal and draconian than anticipated is expelling illegal immigrants. He has tightened security and dramatically reduced illegal crossings — but his plans have run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges, as Axios has reported.

• As a result of Trump's crackdown, the number of migrants illegally crossing the Southwest border plummeted in February to the lowest level in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios. "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote Saturday on Truth Social.

Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: "Axios coverage in Trump era," by Jim VandeHei.

Most politicians agree on three truths: We have a spending problem (too much), a tax problem (too high or too low), and a debt problem (way too much).

• Yet the typical response is: Make all three worse.

Why it matters: This truism sits at the very heart of Republicans' fight over a grand budget deal. They're trying to convince their members, and the American public, that you can take in less money (taxes), spend more on defense — and somehow reduce deficits without touching the programs that cost the most.

Washington is a city of magical thinking — both parties practice it. Hence, insane deficits under Presidents Biden, Trump, Obama and Bush. We'll grow our way of it! Even if we never do.

• Washington is not a city of math thinking. It's too inconvenient to apply common-sense arithmetic. Instead, you get wonky "dynamic scoring," "budget windows" and "future growth."
• A true tell: The solution is always in a future that never comes.
• Our favorite new D.C. math: Republicans are backing word and math fog called "current-policy baseline," which allows them to "score" lower taxes as costing nothing. Why? Because they're just extending expiring tax cuts. Make sense? That's the magic of D.C. math.

The Trump/Republican budget plan is no different. It's basically a bet that lowering taxes further will juice so much growth that our math problems will ease or even disappear.

• We walked you through the spending reality in our last column. This is our attempt to explain clinically the reality of the current tax system and how Republicans want to attack it with up to $5 trillion in tax cuts.

Let's start with the indisputable facts:

• Fact 1: Republicans want to cut taxes by a minimum of $4.5 trillion over 10 years (and by a maximum topping $5 trillion). That's mainly extending President Trump's first-term Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — which cut income taxes for most American families, and reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%.
• Fact 2: Some tax cuts — like encouraging businesses to invest more in equipment and infrastructure — can juice the economy.  That's the beating heart of supply-side tax thought.
• Fact 3: Other tax cuts don't spur growth. Trump wants to exempt tip income and overtime pay from taxation, and loosen a cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes. Those provisions, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes, would shift the tax burden away from specific classes of people (servers, people who put in a lot of overtime, and residents of high-tax states) and leave less room for pro-growth tax cuts.
• Fact 4: Trump has tossed tariffs into the mix. In his mind, big tariffs mean other nations will pay the cost of running the U.S. government. Business leaders, mainstream economists and many Republican lawmakers view them as destructive to growth, and ultimately borne by U.S. businesses and consumers. The reason: Higher tariffs typically result in higher costs. If foreign aluminum costs 20% more, someone has to eat the costs — either the company, or you.
• Fact 5: Trump offers conflicting guidance on what he wants in terms of taxes — and any cuts to pay for all of this. He talks of returning more savings to people with tax rebates ... balancing the budget (a mathematical impossibility absent gutting social programs) ... and never touching those actual social programs.
• Fact 6: You could solve the deficit problem by raising taxes enough to erase it. Republicans hate the idea. But Democrats have long held that higher taxes on rich people and corporations could help wipe out deficits without touching social programs. No shot of that in this Congress. But it's an option!

The big picture: That's why the tax fight could consume Congress for all of 2025. It's truly epic in scale and complexity. As TD Cowen policy expert Chris Krueger puts it: A behemoth tax bill is impossible — yet inevitable.

• If Republicans fail to move a bill, taxes on American families will rise back to their 2017 levels next year — something every elected Republican views as unacceptable.
• Figuring out the details, and passing them through narrow congressional majorities, is the hard part. Democrats are likely to vote in lockstep against the legislation, seeing it as primarily benefiting the very wealthy. If the legislation is paired with Medicaid cuts, as House Republicans envision, that would further energize Democratic opposition.

How taxes work: The IRS collects around $5 trillion in annual taxes from over 200 million taxpayers. Filers who make less than $50,000 pay little to nothing in income taxes after credits and exemptions.

• The difference between what we spend and what we take in = our annual deficit. Total annual deficits rolled together over time = total debt ($36.2 trillion today).

Republicans have long argued tax cuts juice the economy with growth, creating more taxable income and wealth. Some do; some don't.

• But keep in mind: Since Trump signed his 2017 taxes into law, deficits are up 248%! So any growth they helped achieve has been swamped by spending. Hence, America's financial jam.
• The deficit is now running about 7% of GDP — roughly triple the economy's growth rate. Every year that continues, the government will be in a deeper financial hole.

The bottom line: Senate Republicans privately predict they'll punt on taxes for a bit and instead ... spend more. They want $340 billion in increased spending for defense border security and deportation efforts, TD Cowen's Krueger writes in his Washington Research Group newsletter.

• How will they pay for that? Tax cuts and spending cuts. When? Later!

Axios' Neil Irwin contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: "The four-way tug-of-war that explains Republicans' tax challenge," by Axios' Neil Irwin.

President Trump is setting a new precedent for tight, punitive government control over a free press.

Why it matters: Trump and his administration are doing this systematically, gleefully and unmistakably.  But as we've written before, this unprecedented shift could set the precedent for future Democratic presidents, too.

The big picture: Trump frames this as payback for what he calls incompetent, left-wing coverage, and the White House says it's expanding access to new voices and outlets. The White House Correspondents' Association says he's tearing "at the independence of a free press in the United States."

• The end result is twofold: much tighter control over media, and new tools and tactics to punish critics.

Here is what's different today than 38 days ago:

1. Lawsuits. Before taking office, Trump sued ABC News, CBS News and a former Des Moines Register pollster over coverage. This is a new technique for a president or former president — and one getting results. ABC agreed to pay $15 million to Trump's future presidential library instead of fighting in court. CBS also appears to be heading toward settling. Hard to see how this doesn't encourage more lawsuits and entice future presidents pissed off about coverage to do the same.
2. Blacklists. Trump barred AP from the Oval Office and Air Force One for refusing to use "Gulf of America" instead of "Gulf of Mexico" after he made the change by decree. AP, a global newswire that writes the stylebook most U.S. media outlets follow, has been a pillar of White House coverage for more than a century. Denying access, and mandating word choices, are new tactics for a president. Imagine a Democratic president renaming it the Gulf of Obama — and targeting Fox News for refusing to call it that. Fox and the conservative Newsmax were among the outlets protesting AP retribution. Jacqui Heinrich — Fox News senior White House correspondent, and a White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) board member — wrote on X: "This is a short-sighted decision, and it will feel a lot different when a future Democratic administration kicks out conservative-leaning outlets and other critical voices."
3. Stacking the deck. For decades, until Tuesday, the White House had little say in the choice of media organizations responsible for covering official actions and trips via what's known as the press pool. In response to AP's suit over access, the White House seized control of this process, formerly run by the White House Correspondents' Association. Trump has promised to keep traditional media companies part of the mix. But if the new system holds, he and future presidents could surround themselves with friendly reporters asking friendly questions — and punish those who don't.
4. Shielding Cabinet officials. At the Pentagon, where reporters both work onsite and serve in a rotating pool that travels with the SecDef, a similar purge has unfolded. First, the Pentagon booted NBC News, the N.Y. Times, Politico and NPR from their physical workspace as part of a new "annual media rotation program" — substituting friendly outlets + HuffPost, which had no Pentagon reporter. A week later, CNN was ousted from its workspace. Good riddance, MAGA supporters say. But will a future Democratic president do unto conservative news sources as the Trump administration has done to the legacy media?

Behind the scenes: Taylor Budowich, a White House deputy chief of staff intimately involved in this process, told us there's more at play here, and insisted the moves aren't motivated by suppressing dissent. The White House feels access to limited areas like the Oval Office and Air Force One shouldn't be guaranteed to a select few legacy outlets — but instead should be opened up to include both MAGA voices, and other new or niche nonpartisan publications with more domain expertise.

• Budowich said the goal is to drive a "ratings bonanza" by leveraging the reach of traditional outlets with the fresh approach of some newer media players. "The established process doesn't serve people well," he said. "We want to provide more opportunities ... for those who want to do things differently."
• A New York Times statement Tuesday evening called the White House's move "an effort to undermine the public's access to independent, trustworthy information about the most powerful person in America."

The Axios approach: As we wrote a week ago, Axios takes a clinical approach, like a doctor. We simply want to give you the facts and insights to make better decisions and live better lives.

• But these changes curtail the free press, both now and if Trump or future presidents take it further.

Zoom out: Trump allies on X played up efforts by former President Biden to ensure friendly press interactions, including extremely limited press contact and prescreening of reporters' questions, in contrast to Trump's freewheeling sessions.

• The Biden administration culled the list of "hard pass" holders with permanent credentials — access the Trump team says it's restoring.

The bottom line: Tough questions, serious scrutiny, free thought, transparent access to key historical moments. These are decades-long precedents that keep the public informed.

• Go deeper: "Axios coverage in the Trump era," by CEO Jim VandeHei.

President Trump, Elon Musk, and their band of DOGE budget-cutters celebrate daily, even hourly targets to cut U.S. spending on everything from foreign aid to FAA personnel.

• Trump himself has teased a balanced budget — an impossibility without historic cuts to America's most popular programs, such as Social Security.

Why it matters: Their proposed cuts are but drips of water in America's overflowing bucket of debt — $36 trillion and counting. In fact, most days, America racks up more interest on its debt — $3 billion per day! — than DOGE can find in savings. That leaky bucket is the reality of your nation's finances.

This column is our attempt to clinically outline the facts about deficits — and efforts to reduce or eliminate them.

The big picture: Trump and Musk are correct that America is drowning in deficits. Some of it flows from silly spending on stale or even stupid programs. Those make for terrific X dunking: Agencies with more software licenses than employees! A $324,671 USDA grant for "Increasing DEIA Programming for Integrated Pest Management"! A $3 million Education Department contract "to write a report that showed that prior reports were not utilized by schools"!

• But trimming fat is harder than it looks: 37% of the contract terminations on an initial list on DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" (417 out of 1,125) weren't expected to save any money, usually because it had already been spent.
• And the only way to truly reduce the deficit is to target the very programs Trump refuses to touch — defense, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They account for 86% of the budget.
• That's reality for a country that, across Democratic and Republican administrations, has spent taxpayer money without restraint or care about debt. This is one area where everyone is guilty.

Musk and DOGE suck up a lot of attention for doing what former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.) did by needling "the boneheads of both parties," and the late Sen. William Proxmire (D-Wis.) did with his Golden Fleece Award: highlighting the need for radical change, and the absurdity of many U.S. programs. Even Musk critics should applaud him for getting the public to pay attention to massive bugs in the federal system.

• But the Trump team is also using the guise of budget-cutting to eliminate jobs or areas they disagree with — or that undermine their ambitions. To date, most of the proposed cuts fall into this bucket.
• In doing so, they're also usurping the power of Congress — which, under the Constitution, sets U.S. spending priorities and budgets. That's producing court fights.

📊 State of play: The idea of DOGE is popular: A poll released yesterday by Harvard's Center for American Political Studies and The Harris Poll found 72% of U.S. registered voters polled online support the existence of a federal agency focused on efficiency.

• Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, told CNBC in Miami on Monday that while any "bureaucracy pushes back on everything," DOGE "needs to be done," and should be "not just about the deficit. It's about building the right policies, procedures and the government we deserve."

So Trump and his aides correctly calculate that both the cuts and the tales of government insanity are popular with the vast majority of Americans. Even if the reality isn't quite as sexy:

• No, tens of millions of dead people aren't getting Social Security checks. That's a known computer coding quirk that wasn't fixed because of the cost.
• No, DOGE didn't save $8 billion on a contract by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The New York Times Upshot discovered that DOGE was hanging its hat on an earlier database error that had been corrected to say $8 million. $2.5 million had been spent — so canceling the contract saved $5.5 million at most.
• No, the U.S. didn't send $50 million worth of condoms to Hamas, as Trump said on-camera. "That's a LOT of condoms," Musk joked. In fact, the International Medical Corps was providing medical and trauma services in Gaza, including family planning programming and emergency contraception.

Reality check: Of the roughly $7 trillion the U.S. spent in 2024 (as calculated by Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin)...

• 60% went to mandatory programs — including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, unemployment insurance and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program).
• 13% went to defense.
• 13% to interest payments.
• 14% for discretionary spending — leaving Trump not quite $1 trillion.

So when you consider where federal money really goes, most DOGE oddities and outrages amount to rounding errors in a sea of government obligations.

By the numbers: Earlier this month, Trump promised on Truth Social: "BALANCED BUDGET!!!" Here's what would have to happen to deliver that, according to nonpartisan and academic experts:

• You'd need to eliminate roughly $2 trillion just to make up for the current deficit projection, plus interest on our existing debt.
• That'd mean massive cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicare and defense.
• There's also the question of how many times you can spend the same dollar. Trump says he wants tariffs to balance the budget — but he also wants them to eliminate income taxes. And "DOGE dividend" checks would send savings back to taxpayers instead of helping dig the country out of this hole.

The backstory: Trump is handcuffed by political reality and his own statements.

• He was elected on the promise of tax cuts. Those cuts likely would create even bigger deficits, at least in the short term.
• "Social Security won't be touched," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity two weeks ago. "Other than fraud or something we're going to find it's going to be strengthened but won't be touched. Medicare, Medicaid, none of that stuff is going to be touched."

Case in point: House Republicans have vowed to cut Medicaid in the budget bill that would pay for Trump's tax cuts, border security buildup and other priorities.

• But Steve Bannon pointed out on his "War Room" podcast: "A lot of MAGA's on Medicaid ... Medicaid is going to be a complicated one. Just can't take a meat ax to it, although I would love to."
• Michael Tuffin, CEO of AHIP, which represents health insurers, contends that disrupting Medicaid coverage could raise costs elsewhere and weaken chronic-disease prevention.
• We told you over the weekend about the testy town halls that House Republicans are facing back home. One of them, Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), told CNN's Manu Raju on Monday that the GOP could do a better job of showing "compassion": "I think we have to have really good conversations between the DOGE and Congress [about] the impact on people who have real consequences for their families."

What they're saying: Administration officials say Trump already has disrupted more in 37 days than most experts thought was possible. That is true. But most of the past month's wall-to-wall coverage has focused on bites that wouldn't add up to the meal that he's promised.

• Musk told Hannity: "If we don't solve the deficit, there won't be money for medical care." So Musk, who has spent his career defying bearish predictions, is now working his greatest puzzle of all.

The bottom line: Neil Irwin reminds us of the old line that the U.S. government consists of a military attached to an insurance company. In big-picture terms, that's pretty true.

• Go deeper: DOGE math questions, by Axios' Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown.

President Trump named bombastic MAGA podcast star Dan Bongino as deputy FBI director — a role that doesn't require Senate confirmation, and typically goes to a senior agent.

Why it matters: With loyalist Kash Patel confirmed as FBI director, the bureau can function effectively as Trump's private security force.

• Announcing the appointment on Truth Social last night, Trump said Patel "will be the best ever Director" and said of Bongino: "Working with our great new United States Attorney General, Pam Bondi, and Director Patel, Fairness, Justice, Law and Order will be brought back to America, and quickly."

Catch up quick: Bongino served in the NYPD before joining the Secret Service and working in the Presidential Protective Division during the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

• The FBI Agents Association wanted an active-duty agent as deputy. So the pick could intensify "mistrust among the rank-and-file," the N.Y. Times reports.
• Bongino ran for a U.S. Senate seat in 2012 and in two congressional races after that. He lost all three.

Flashback: Talking in 2018 about the confirmation battle for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Bongino said: "My entire life right now is about owning the libs."

• In 2022, he was banned from YouTube after being suspended for violating the platform's COVID-19 misinformation policy.
• He's also spread conspiracy theories about the FBI's role in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and questioned the integrity of its investigations into the assassination attempts targeting Trump.

The other side: Some Democrats have sounded the alarm over the pick.

• "Trump has chosen grifters to lead the FBI," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) wrote Sunday, alleging that "Dan Bongino's entire show is telling listeners the world is ending so they buy the dozens of survivalist products he sells."
• He added, "I know this feels like a bad dream. It isn't."

Go deeper: YouTube permanently bans Fox News host Dan Bongino

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional background and reaction.

Apple on Monday morning announced plans to invest more than $500 billion in the U.S. and hire 20,000 people over the next four years, with expansion and construction planned from coast to coast.

• The new jobs will focus on research and development, silicon engineering, software development, and AI and machine learning.
• Apple plans to greatly expand chip and server manufacturing in the U.S., plus skills development for students and workers across the country.

Why it matters: Apple's announcement — which the company calls its "largest-ever spend commitment" — is precisely the kind of win President Trump has been looking for with his push to move manufacturing back to the U.S.

• Apple's new investment — much of it in red states — lets Trump say to other companies: Apple can do it. Why can't (or won't) you?

Apple CEO Tim Cook said in the announcement: "We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we're proud to build on our longstanding U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country's future."

• "From doubling our Advanced Manufacturing Fund [from $5 billion to $10 billion], to building advanced technology in Texas, we're thrilled to expand our support for American manufacturing," Cook added. "And we'll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation."

The backstory: Trump met with Cook on Thursday in the Oval Office. Then Trump got so excited that he revealed the plans prematurely, saying on-camera while meeting with governors that Cook is "investing hundreds of billions of dollars. I hope he's announced it — I hope I didn't announce it, but what the hell? All I do is tell the truth — that's what he told me. Now he has to do it, right?"

• "He is investing hundreds of billions of dollars and others, too," Trump continued. "We will have a lot of chipmakers coming in, a lot of automakers coming in. They stopped two plants in Mexico that were ... starting construction. They just stopped them — they're going to build them here instead, because they don't want to pay the tariffs. Tariffs are amazing."

The big picture: Apple says it now supports nearly 3 million jobs across the U.S. through direct employment, work with suppliers and manufacturers, and developer jobs in the iOS app economy.

• Apple already works with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states, including 24 factories in 12 states.
• Apple's U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund has supported projects in 13 states, helping build local businesses and train workers.

Reality check: Apple made a similar announcement four years ago. In 2021, Apple committed $430 billion in U.S. investments and 20,000 new jobs across the country over five years — including a new campus in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, where development was paused last year.

• Apple says it has worked with North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein (D) and the North Carolina Department of Commerce to extend the project's timeline. Apple says it continues to grow its teams in the Tar Heel State — both at corporate offices in Raleigh and at a data center in Catawba, where the company has exceeded planned investments.

Zoom in: Here's a rundown of Apple's new expansion plans:

• Texas: New advanced AI server manufacturing factory near Houston. The 250,000-square-foot server manufacturing facility, slated to open in 2026, "will create thousands of jobs," Apple's announcement says. "Previously manufactured outside the U.S., the servers that will soon be assembled in Houston play a key role in powering Apple Intelligence, and are the foundation of Private Cloud Compute, which combines powerful AI processing with the most advanced security architecture ever deployed at scale for AI cloud computing. The servers bring together years of R&D by Apple engineers."
• Michigan: New Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit. "Apple engineers, along with experts from top universities such as Michigan State, will consult with small- and medium-sized businesses on implementing AI and smart manufacturing techniques," the announcement says. "The academy will also offer free in-person and online courses, with a skills development curriculum that teaches workers vital skills like project management and manufacturing process optimization."
•  California: Construction of a state-of-the-art campus is underway in Culver City, an entertainment enclave in L.A. County. In San Diego, a 4,000-member team will continue to grow.
• Arizona: Apple-designed Apple Silicon will be produced at TSMC's Fab 21 semiconductor plant in Phoenix.
• Washington state: Apple has doubled the number of team members in Seattle over the past three years to 2,400+, and will keep growing.
• Operations will expand in Mesa, Arizona ... Reno, Nevada ... Prineville, Oregon ... and Maiden, North Carolina (outside Charlotte).

Go deeper: Apple announcement.

Andrew Ross Sorkin has been quietly working on this for eight years: He'll be out this fall with "1929: The Inside Story of the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History," told as an immersive, electrifying "tale of power, psychology, and the seductive illusion that 'this time is different.'"

• Think of it as a prequel "Too Big to Fail," Sorkin's definitive history of the 2008 banking crisis, which was on the New York Times bestseller list for over six months.

Why it matters: "The billionaires of today who are increasingly intertwined with government are not that different than the titans of that era," Sorkin told me.

Sorkin — co-anchor of CNBC's "Squawk Box," and award-winning New York Times journalist and founder of DealBook — told me he "started work on the book in 2017 — and actually even earlier."

• He had become "obsessed with chronicling 1929 as a human drama — an inside-the-room, tick-tock account of the decisions, miscalculations and desperate maneuvers of Wall Street and Washington."

"I combed through thousands of diaries and letters and transcripts," added Sorkin, also co-creator of Showtime's "Billions."

• "The characters are colorful — and some eerily similar — to those that lead our institutions today. The narrative is an attempt to make one of the most well-known, but largely abstract, financial crises accessible to the modern public and policymakers, in the hope that history doesn't once again repeat itself."

What they're saying: The announcement from Viking, the publisher, says "1929," out Oct. 14, has "the depth of a classic history and the drama of a thriller," and "unravels the greed, blind optimism and human folly that led to an era-defining collapse."

• Sorkin's drama contains "disregarded alarm bells, financiers who fell from grace, and skeptics who saw the crash coming — only to be dismissed until it was too late."

Go deeper.

Whether you admire — or abhor — President Trump's boundary-busting first month in office (today = Day 30), it's important to see with clear eyes what's truly stretching the law and shaking long-held traditions of White House occupants before him.

Why it matters: As we've written before, every "unprecedented" move becomes a new precedent for future presidents. Trump supporters should expect Democratic presidents in the future to use the same new tactics and legal interpretations against them. So understanding each move matters.

The big picture: U.S. presidents face very few restraints. They're free of conflict of interest laws, enjoy the presumption of immunity in all official acts, and have wide latitude to impose their agenda.

• So it's worth paying attention when Trump says, as he did over the weekend on Truth Social and X: "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law."
• That followed Vice President Vance saying on X: "Judges aren't allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." Vance's comment is technically correct. But when taken together, the quotes suggest a belief there are few practical or legal restraints on a president. This isn't a new theory: Several Republican-appointed members of the Supreme Court have long held very elastic views of presidential power.
• Also important to note: Trump did promise in the Oval Office, a few days before his post about saving the country, that he'll always abide by court rulings — "and we'll appeal."

So after one month in office and a dizzying amount of rhetoric and real action, what has Trump done that truly pulls America into uncharted waters? (This is our attempt to help readers sift out the hyperbolic reactions, and instead focus on legitimate boundary-busting actions worthy of deeper reflection.)

1. Claiming power clearly granted to Congress. This might seem like a nerdy social studies argument, but it's massive in consequence. The Constitution clearly gives Congress the power to allow and then set spending for the federal government. Take it away, and Congress is left as a weakened branch of government.

• Trump has dismantled USAID ... moved to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ... tried to freeze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans ... targeted at least 20,000 federal jobs ... and on Tuesday signed an executive order to rein in independent agencies by declaring that "all executive branch officials and employees are subject to his supervision." The order is "a further challenge to congressional authority," The Wall Street Journal notes, and "may conflict with the autonomy Congress has granted agencies such as the FTC, the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the National Labor Relations Board."
• The Supreme Court, one dominated by conservatives in 1975, ruled unanimously that a president couldn't "impound" congressionally authorized funds, as President Richard Nixon had tried to do.
• Congress could stymie presidential actions like this. But this Congress, controlled by Republicans, is ceding its power to check Trump.

2. Rewriting an actual Constitutional amendment. Trump is already locked in a court fight after seeking to unilaterally rewrite — again by executive order — the 14th Amendment, which grants birthright citizenship to those born here.

• Trump wants to exclude babies born to mothers who are in the country without authorization. Four federal judges have blocked this executive order. This one is likely headed to the Supreme Court.

3. Firing watchdogs. President Trump has fired a lot of people fast, following through on a campaign promise. He has wide latitude to staff the federal government as he sees fit.

• But his abrupt sacking of more than a dozen inspectors generals (IGs) appears to violate the law stating he must give 30 days' notice.  Again, this might sound nerdy and technical. But IGs were put in place to investigate — independently — "waste, fraud and abuse." Imagine if every new president, instead of leaving experienced IGs in place, simply ousts them and puts in loyalists instead. That is the precedent that could be set here.

4. Empowering Elon. Trump and MAGA supporters love the most inventive business mind of the 21st century rifling through agency budgets and databases to cut spending. 

• But Musk and DOGE are deep in uncharted waters by gaining access to personal data, and by operating with minimal vetting. Imagine future presidents letting friends set up inside the government, and secretly get the power to see your most sensitive information while they help govern.

5. Profiting from the presidency. This isn't illegal. But it defies a long history of unspoken presidential behavior. Most presidents avoided any actual — or perception of — commingling of their presidential power with personal business deals. Former President Biden took a public beating from Trump and his supporters after it was revealed Biden's son and brother profited off his name and actions.

• Three days before taking office, Trump launched a cryptocurrency that, on paper, was worth as much as $50 billion for the Trump family, depending on how you count coins not yet released to market. (Most of the meme coin's value has been erased since then.) No limits keep foreign leaders, or anyone seeking influence, from buying coins to benefit the Trump family.
• As The New York Times reported this week, Trump held an Oval Office meeting to help boost a merger between the PGA and LIV pro golf behemoths. Trump's family is a major LIV financial partner.

6. DOJ dictates. Trump supporters seem jazzed by, or at least cool with, more than a half-dozen seasoned Justice Department lawyers quitting instead of helping to kill the corruption indictment of New York Mayor Eric Adams. Trump apparently wants to free Adams to help the administration crack down on immigration, which he can't do from court or jail.

• This specific case is unprecedented on its face. This many top U.S. lawyers quitting en masse hasn't happened since the infamous "Saturday Night Massacre" under President Richard Nixon 51 years ago. It begs the question: Will MAGA be cool if the next Democratic president forces Justice officials to do his or her bidding — or quit?

Reality check: Trump has every right to do and say everything unfolding overseas, from taunting Canada to belittling Europe to freezing Ukraine out of his war negotiations.

• All presidents are free to conduct foreign policy as they see fit. He can also rid his government of DEI staff and offices, and fire as many unprotected government workers as he chooses. There's a difference between shattering expectations and shattering laws.

Between the lines: Alex Pfeiffer, White House principal deputy communications director, told us everything Trump is doing is democratic — "in fact, the most democratic thing possible. President Trump won the election, made promises in the election and is enacting those promises."

• "Elon is a White House employee," Pfeiffer added. "He and political appointees act on behalf of the president to do the things voters voted for. ... Letting bureaucrats run everything is the opposite of democracy."
• "President Trump is restoring control to the people ... swiftly enacting what was voted on," Pfeiffer continued. "And that is as democratic as it gets."

Our thought bubble: Axios tries to cover Trump's actions seriously and clinically without overreacting to random social media posts, given his penchant for ephemeral provocation.

• Our aim: Arm readers with facts and context for making sense of the velocity of news and change.

The bottom line: The first Trump term seemed unprecedented, and sometimes was. This one is authentically unprecedented in totality.

• Shoot us questions you have for future columns: [email protected], [email protected].

Go deeper: Startup America — our column on Trump's Day 1.

The Social Security Administration's top official resigned over the weekend in the latest clash over the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) access to sensitive government records, the Washington Post reports.

Why it matters: The agency is quickly becoming a target of Elon Musk, who has claimed without conclusive evidence that there's rampant fraud from improper payments to dead people.

Driving the news: Acting commissioner Michelle King, who worked at the agency for over 30 years, left her position after refusing to give DOGE staffers access to sensitive information.

• President Trump appointed Leland Dudek — who runs the Social Security Administration's anti-fraud office — as acting commissioner while his permanent pick, Frank Bisignano, awaits Senate confirmation.

Between the lines: "Administration officials have also been skeptical of career employees' efforts to guard federal data, maintaining that political appointees should also be able to access it, particularly if necessary to root out wasteful or erroneous spending," the Post reports.

• The Treasury Department's highest-ranking civil servant resigned under similar circumstances last month.

Go deeper: DOGE's "AI-first" strategy courts disaster

Ask NFL executives their biggest fear, and it has nothing to do with fans, players or TV rights. It's drones — which are hard for authorities to track, and almost impossible to stop if ever unleashed on an open-air stadium.

• Ask U.S. intelligence experts their biggest fears, and you'll inevitably hear dire warnings of drone swarms — domestic or foreign — targeting American soil.
• Probe deeper, and you'll learn that the vast majority of these drones are made by China — and, therefore, conceivably controllable by America's greatest adversary. TikTok is accused of being a security threat — but it can't spy or drop bombs.

Why it matters: Look at the skies of Syria, Russia — or, many squinted and said, New Jersey — and the future of terrorism and warfare is on vivid display. Drones gather intelligence, guide artillery and shape battle plans.

Between the lines: The NFL's fear is based on gaps in authority among local, state and federal authorities. A league source calls the lack of coordination is "potentially dangerous and unsustainable."

• "Laws, regulations and enforcement mechanisms have not caught up with the technology and proliferation of these machines," the source said.
• "The general distrust in institutions, and general paranoia about the 'deep state,' makes unidentified flying objects that dwell over our communities particularly menacing. Are we being watched? If so, by whom? And they sound like swarms of insects."

State of play: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt began her first briefing by confirming something that had long been apparent — last fall's feverish drone spottings in the Northeast were mostly sightings of ... airplanes.

• "After research and study, the drones that were flying over New Jersey in large numbers were authorized to be flown by the FAA for research and various other reasons," she said, citing news she'd been told "directly" by President Trump in the Oval Office, and echoing what the Biden administration had contended.
• The epidemic of coverage tailed off with the Christmas holidays, as people moved on and the planes kept landing. "Many of these drones were also hobbyists — recreational, and private individuals that enjoy flying drones," Leavitt added. "In time, it got worse, due to curiosity.  This was not the enemy."

Reality check: Amid the goofy sightings, the true domestic drone threat is under-discussed, defense executives tell Colin Demarest, author of Axios Future of Defense.

• The Pentagon is spending big to dominate drone defense with drone-neutralizing technology, including "meaningfully improved" protections against small drones.
• Drones' bloody consequences are apparent in the Middle East, where the U.S. Army has deployed drone zappers in a rush to defend troops.

How it works: Dropping drones is no easy task. It requires spotting, identifying, tracking and intercepting, Colin explains.

• That last part can be accomplished with a multimillion-dollar missile (looking at you, Red Sea), bullets, electronic interference or something as primitive as a net or cage.
• Drone swarms only complicate this: What's a decoy? What's deadly? Who's the target? Which do you shoot?

What to watch: Jonathan Moneymaker, CEO of BlueHalo, a next-generation defense firm based in Arlington, Virginia, told Colin that as threats escalate from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), as the FAA calls drones, "our legislation to protect the homeland has not kept pace."

• Moneymaker said there's a critical need to empower local authorities, through the Department of Homeland Security, to deploy countermeasures around airports, power stations, military installations and surrounding communities. "We have the technology to be ready," he said. "We need the legislation to catch up. We will either address this before we suffer a major drone attack in [the U.S.], or we will address it after — but we will address it."

Get Axios Future of Defense, Colin Demarest's weekly newsletter.

As President Trump nears his term's one-month mark next week, a White House adviser is keeping a calendar tracking daily wins, losses and "jump balls" — and loves the result so far.

Why it matters: Insiders tell us Trump, who came into office feeling ebullient and empowered, is just getting more confident — fueled by his expected clean sweep of Cabinet confirmations, plus a CBS News poll showing 53% approval amid his aggressive "flood the zone" opening actions.

The big picture: The midterm map has gotten more favorable for the GOP with the retirement announcements Thursday by Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) a week into Trump's term — two more hot battleground seats for Dems to defend in an already tough cycle.

Privately, there's an undercurrent of worry in Trumpworld that political gravity could weigh him down — especially if inflation rises. The looming debt ceiling and government-funding fights could be messy.

• For now, it's foot ... on ... gas. White House communications director Steven Cheung posted a photo of eight news channels simultaneously showing this week's Oval Office colloquy by Trump and Elon Musk and labeled it: "FULL SPECTRUM DOMINANCE."

Behind the scenes: "Trump is reborn," a confidant who spoke with Trump by phone told Caputo.

• "Normally, a big part of the conversation is the 'Russia hoax' and stuff like that," the confidant said. "It's gone. Now it's: 'Did you see the CBS poll?' Or it's: 'This person is saying nice things about me.' He feels totally vindicated."

A highlight of Trump's week was Russia's release of imprisoned Pennsylvania teacher Marc Fogel, who was flown from Moscow straight to D.C. Fogel met the president on the South Lawn late Tuesday night — an American flag draped around his neck and an Iron City Beer in his hand.

• The cameras captured it all. "This is Trump the Producer," another confidant told us.

Reality check: Offscreen, it's much messier — sometimes intended, sometimes not — as Trump and Elon Musk race to reshape Washington and reset American foreign policy.

• Six senior Justice Department officials, including Manhattan's top federal prosecutor, resigned Thursday rather than comply with a Justice Department order to dismiss corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. (Reuters)
• As layoffs swept the bureaucracy, thousands of workers "were laid off in messages delivered through prerecorded videos and on group calls," The Washington Post reports. "Some were ordered to leave the building within 30 minutes. Others were told they would be formally fired by emails, which never arrived."
• The Small Business Administration listed a paralegal phone number for laid-off employees to appeal their termination — but the number was an automated line for an apartment building. (WP)
• There's much more to come: Musk told the World Governments Summit in Dubai via teleconference that the U.S. needs to "delete entire agencies — many of them." (Video)
• A "climate of fear" hit the Kennedy Center as Trump was installed as the chair, succeeding David Rubenstein, and some upcoming shows vanished from the lineup. (WP)
• NATO reels: The world's biggest military alliance is in disarray amid new questions about America's commitment to European security after remarks this week by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. (AP)
• "Trump's Whirlwind Now Blows Through Europe," the N.Y. Times' David E. Sanger writes (gift link), pointing to Trump's tariffs, statements on Ukraine by Trump and Hegseth, and Vice President Vance's "America First" AI speech in Paris.

The bottom line: Look for the maximalist Trump to accelerate as more of his confirmed officials ramp up.

Go deeper: Axios confirmation tracker.

President Trump and Elon Musk, arguably the two most unorthodox and influential American leaders of the 21st century, are practicing and fine-tuning a fused theory of governing power:

• Masculine maximalism.

Why it matters: Trump and Musk believe powerfully in maximalist action and language — which is being carried out by strong (mostly) white men — as blunt, uncompromising instruments to prove new limits both to power and what's possible.

• "Fix Bayonets," Steve Bannon, a first-term Trump official whose "War Room" podcast makes him one of the most widely followed outside MAGA voices, texted us. "We are 'Burning Daylight' — short window to get this done."

Trump, first in business and then politics, and Musk, first in business and now politics, are feeding off each other's natural instincts to do, say and operate by their own new rules.

• These instincts made them rich, famous and impervious to traditional rules, norms and even laws. Their success makes dissuasion by others futile, administration officials tell us.
• Trump and Musk view masculinity quite similarly: tough-guy language, macho actions, irreverent, crude — and often unmoved by emotionalism, empathy or restraint.

The big picture: So much has happened so fast, in so little time, that it's hard to measure what matters most in the first 24 days of the Trump presidency (not even a month yet!). But stepping way back and appraising the totality of actions, the biggest shift is the instant imposition of this new power theory across all of government and the Republican Party:

• There's no opposition to this maximalist approach among Trump's staff or major MAGA media voices. And it's extremely limited among Republican lawmakers: Some have privately expressed concerns about DOGE, and winced at Vice President Vance's salvo about judges not being "allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." But even most GOP senators who expressed initial reservations about Cabinet picks have turned supportive.

Here's the Trump-Musk formula:

1. Power asserted, power claimed: Trump and Musk, much like they did in the private sector, set their own new limits of authority by stating them emphatically and acting aggressively. Trump and Musk have moved to cut at least 10,000 federal workers, while vowing "large-scale reductions in force (RIFs)" as part of "workforce reform" ... and offered deferred resignation packages to more than 2 million federal workers. (A federal judge on Wednesday let the "buyout" program proceed. 75,000 workers have taken the deal.)

• Trump and Musk sought to freeze federal grants and loans that total in the trillions ... and targeted "hundreds of billions" in fraudulent federal spending. Musk's DOGE gained access to Treasury's highly sensitive payment system. Trump threatened a global trade war ... stripped security details from his own former secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and other former officials ... revoked the security clearance of former President Biden, ending his classified intelligence briefings ... and fired more than a dozen inspectors general — watchdogs who root out Executive Branch abuse.
• Trump's Pentagon deployed active-duty troops to the Southwest border. Trump's Justice Department pushed federal prosecutors to drop corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. And Trump pardoned former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who went to prison for political corruption.
• Trump, after campaigning as an American First hardliner, often sounds like limitless expansionist: saying the U.S. would "take over" Gaza ... and pushing to buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state and take back the Panama Canal.

2. Precedents are for chumps: Both think conventional, polite, rule-following CEOs and leaders are suckers and conformists. They believe wimps and posers play by the rules, worry about hurt feelings or damaged lives, and seek consensus. So far, Trump and Musk have every reason to feel vindicated: Most Republicans in Congress have sat by idly, or applauded gleefully, as the two laid claim to congressional powers of the purse and scrutinizing Cabinet picks.

• Trump and Musk are freezing programs and firing federal employees — with scant scrutiny and little transparency. A Wall Street Journal editorial points out that Trump deliberately incited legal challenges with his executive order ending birthright citizenship, and by firing a member of the National Labor Relations Board: "Trump believes he'll win on both issues because he thinks previous Supreme Court rulings were wrongly decided." The Journal says Trump is on new legal ground by targeting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and USAID — both of which were established by Congress.

3. Let men be men: Yes, there are some powerful women around Trump — led by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles.

• But the vast majority of the public and private action is carried about by aggressive, white men, including Musk and his all-male DOGE posse; Stephen Miller, a White House deputy chief of staff who also is homeland security adviser and immigration lead; and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News star and decorated Army combat veteran who's bringing some of Trump's most disruptive dreams to life.

4. Humiliate the humbled: Both Trump and Musk use public appearances and social media posts to bully and pummel critics across politics, media and culture. They scoff at calls for humility and grace when blessed with power. In the case of transgender people, they want to restore "biological truth" and "the immutable biological reality of sex," as a Day 1 executive order put it, by making it "the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female."

• Both men like to provoke outrage — and outrageous responses. That makes Trump and Musk the center of the national conversation — and baits hyperventilating critics into outrageous responses. Trump and Musk have followed through on their promise to decimate DEI, targeting hundreds of such jobs. The Free Press wrote that the Trump administration, "and many of its highest-profile supporters, are fueling the idea that any minority with a job might not actually deserve it. These people see DEI everywhere."

5. Fused styles, fused worldview: As captured by Vance's AI speech in Paris this week, the most surprising twist in the Trump governing agenda reflects a fusion not just of the Trump and Musk styles but also their worldviews — nationalism with techno-optimism.

• Trump was indifferent or outright hostile to many Big Tech companies in his first term and most of his campaign. But now: Quick, vast AI expansion sits at the heart of his evolving economic agenda and philosophy. At the same time, Musk has been a vocal champion of nationalism. They're of one style, and increasingly of one shared mind and ideology.

Behind the scenes: Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, MAGA's youth wing, and host of one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — told us the "flood the zone" aggressiveness of the administration's first month will only increase as more top officials get confirmed and rolling. "This is just setting the foundation," Kirk said. "He's set a pace and said: My team can see the tempo I want."

• Kirk, who is very close to Trump, told us Trump's maximalist instincts are being amplified by his battle-hardened staff and Cabinet. "You have an entire Avengers team of people able to fulfill the president's wishes and orders," Kirk said. "When you're in exile for a couple of years, and have people writing your political eulogy, you enter with increased motivation and energy."
• Kirk, whose social media feeds are one of the most vivid reflections (and drivers) of MAGA sentiment, said his callers and followers are thrilled with what they're getting: "They knew he was serious. But they didn't know they'd get it so quickly, decisively and declaratively."

Reality check: Trump is very intentionally testing the limits of executive power. The WSJ editorial contends: "Trump may be wrong, but there is no constitutional crisis as the cases make their way through the courts."

What to watch: Democrats are beyond baffled on how to deal with Trump, Musk and maximalist power simultaneously. The opposition lacks anyone with a remotely similar social media and traditional media star power, or a coherent legislative way to slow or stop them.

• So Democrats are down to betting on the courts — or a future maximalist public backlash to maximalism.

Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."

• Join Jim & Mike next Wednesday for a webinar on "How Trump Thinks" — with special guest Marc Caputo, one of the best-wired Trump reporters — as part of our AM Executive Briefing membership series. Subscribe here.

At a global AI summit in Paris next week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will warn world leaders they need to widen their AI mindset from risk — the typical focus of European gatherings on AI — to also include growth and opportunity, an industry source tells Mike.

Why it matters: For the past six months, Altman escalated his insistence on the need for U.S.-led, democratic AI, so a world built on U.S.-led AI rails can prevail over Chinese-led AI.

Zoom in: Vice President JD Vance, who had a stint in tech investing, will attend the AI Action Summit, which will gather heads of state and top government officials at the Grand Palais museum in Paris on Monday and Tuesday.

• Altman and other executives will hold meetings with heads of state and other government leaders where they'll share data and insights about AI users and developers in their countries.

Zoom out: Encouraged by the response to a demo Altman led for U.S. government leaders in Washington last week, OpenAI plans events in New York and Texas with its "Innovating for America" message.

• OpenAI will go on the road with similar meetings in London, Brussels and New Delhi for policymakers, economists, investors, think-tank experts and journalists.

The big picture: Open AI's push on "carrots of opportunity" follows the warning in a report last year by former European Central Bank head Mario Draghi that Europe faces a widening technology gap with the U.S.

• On Thursday in Berlin, Altman discussed a European counterpart to the Stargate Project — announced by President Trump the day after the inauguration — which could see the investment of $500 billion over the next four years in AI infrastructure in the U.S. But Altman said European Union regulations would make it harder to raise the capital needed.

What's next: During the Paris summit, OpenAI ads showing the progress possible from the technology will adorn Charles de Gaulle Airport and the private terminals used by many attendees. Similar outdoor ads have been placed around event sites.

• On Sunday, OpenAI is expected to air its first Super Bowl ad.

Go deeper: ChatGPT's Deep Research is a promising intern

Alex Bruesewitz — a pivotal media adviser to President Trump, known for pushing podcasts and other disruptive outlets during the campaign — will be a senior adviser to Never Surrender, Trump's new leadership PAC.

Why it matters: Bruesewitz, 27, overnight became one of the most influential political strategists in the U.S. The revelation of whether he'd "go inside" the White House has been eagerly awaited.

• "We went where the people were," Bruesewitz told me. "All of the podcasters we teamed up with had massive unique, audiences."

Zoom in: Bruesewitz will lead digital messaging for the new group. His firm — X Strategies LLC, based near Mar-a-Lago in West Palm Beach — will manage all digital properties linked to the Trump political brand.

• That includes the powerful X accounts @TrumpWarRoom and @TeamTrump, which have millions of followers.
• Donald Trump Jr. said in a statement to Axios: "Alex has secured our complete trust and confidence through his unwavering loyalty and delivering extraordinary results for my father on the campaign. He will do a great job in this new role."

Behind the scenes: Bruesewitz first made a name for himself with his knack for provoking Trump's political opponents. He needled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley during the '24 primaries, with Trump once praising him as "the most powerful guy that I know."

• During the general election, Bruesewitz's role pivoted to spearheading Trump's engagements with mainstream podcasts and influencers, with assistance from Barron Trump, and input from the likes of UFC CEO Dana White and John Shahidi, who manages the Nelk Boys.
• Bruesewitz's clients include many Trump allies in the House and Senate, including Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)

What he's saying: Bruesewitz tells Axios that in his new role, he'll "leverage these social media platforms to counteract misinformation from mainstream media and to vigorously support and defend our President and our remarkable allies. ... We're also going to have a lot of fun."

On the 15th day, he proclaimed Gaza ours.

Why it matters: There are two ways to view President Trump's epic, historic, shockingly unexpected declaration Tuesday evening that the U.S. should seize, control, develop and hold "a long-term ownership position" in war-destroyed Gaza.

1. It was a wild bluff — or bluster — to gain leverage in the Middle East. It's like threats of trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico — all-consumingly controversial, yet instantly ephemeral. This strikes most Republicans as the right interpretation.
2. The other: It fuses several Trump obsessions — his hope for a grand Middle East peace deal, his belief Gaza will be a hellhole for decades to come, and his genuine intrigue about developing the seaside land. U.S. officials tell us Trump's words were premeditated, and mirror ideas he floated to some staff and family members privately.

What he said: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip," Trump said, reading from notes in the East Room during the first formal news conference of his presidency, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. "We'll own it, and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."

• Asked later who he envisions living in a rebuilt Gaza, Trump replied: "I envision the world people living there — the world's people. I think you'll make that into an international, unbelievable place."
• Trump, channeling his inner developer, added: "We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal. And I don't want to be cute, I don't want to be a wise guy, but: the Riviera of the Middle East. ... This could be so magnificent. ... We'll make sure that it's done world-class — it'll be wonderful for the people."

The big picture: Like everything with Trump, his views and motivations are gray despite being expressed in stark black and white.

• "He's moving the goalposts of crazy," a longtime adviser told us. "This time around, he's not intimidated by headlines or pundits: He's gonna throw out there whatever he feels like throwing out there."
• Trump's message to the Middle East, in the words of this adviser: "I can make it a lot worse for you guys, or you can come up with a better plan."

Reality check: There are massive obstacles to Trump's vision.

• The human toll would be staggering: 2 million Palestinians call Gaza home and haven't consented to being forced out of their territory, despite the colossal destruction from 16 months of war.
• The leaders of Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected Trump's plan to resettle those Palestinians on their territory. Not to mention the broader regional consensus, including in Saudi Arabia, that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state — not an American one.

Human rights groups have already condemned the proposal as ethnic cleansing.

• Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, but he left the door open last evening to sending U.S. troops to Gaza "if necessary." Left unmentioned was what would be done about Hamas, which remains a force in Gaza and has recruited 10,000-15,000 fighters since the start of the war, according to U.S. intelligence.
• Trump's "America First" allies in the Republican Party are quietly raising their eyebrows, especially with his administration actively in the process of dismantling USAID for using taxpayer dollars overseas.

Between the lines: People want to put a frame around Trump's most dramatic moves or public statements.

• But everyone on the inside knows it's Trump being Trump — feeling wholly confident, unrestrained, liberated to say and propose whatever pops into his mind.

The Gaza idea is a collision of three private Trump views:

1. He believes a big peace deal, with the Saudis at the center, is doable.
2. He was genuinely moved by the scope of the destruction of Gaza, and the realization it could take decades to rebuild.
3. He and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, see this as authentic prime real estate — "waterfront property" that could draft off all the power and money flowing through the Middle East.

But Trump seemed to undermine his hopes for a broader Middle East deal. The Saudis were furious with both Trump's idea, and his claim they would accept a deal that does not include a Palestinian state, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump said the Gaza overture was Trump's own idea, and he had been thinking about it for at least two months, Barak reports.

• A U.S. official said Trump presented the plan because he came to the conclusion that no one else had any new ideas for Gaza.

The bottom line: Chaos isn't an accident. Trump and his aides know that the tsunami of ideas, executive orders and proclamations makes it hard for opponents to unite around a single message.

• Think about you or your friends: Are you more intrigued or worked up by all his controversial nominees ... or Greenland ... or trade wars ... or USAID ... or Elon Musk ... or Ukraine ... or South Africa ... or TikTok ... or a new sovereign wealth fund ... or Trump's own crypto? No human can process this much he-did-what news this fast.

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: Dispatch from Axios' Barak Ravid.

There's an unspoken, ugly rule of American politics: Do unto the other what they have done unto you.

• Simply put: Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party — if they prove effective.

Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.

• That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
• They did it to us. So we'll do it, too — on steroids.

The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.

• We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.

Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:

1. Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation — payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
2. Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
3. Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure — but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
4. Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed — but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
5. Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could — but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office — with paper value that reached tens of billions — with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.

What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts — so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power? 

• Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years — Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.

Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.

• Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
• Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack — though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.

The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use — and expand — many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."

America has never witnessed so many people purged or punished by an incoming president so quickly. White House sources tell us this is just the beginning.

• On Friday night, a Defense Department memo said four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — will have to move out of their longtime workspace on Correspondents' Corridor in the Pentagon, an unprecedented move, under a new Annual Media Rotation Program for Pentagon Press Corps.
• "Hope those hit pieces on Pete were worth it," a source close to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but not involved in the decision-making, told us.

Why it matters: President Trump long promised to oust and punish people his administration deemed political enemies or unfair critics. His administration is doing this faster, deeper and wider than many in Washington expected.

• Democrats on the Hill are warning that Trump is sometimes acting outside the law — and without regard for government services Americans rely on, and for the American tradition that a president must be subject to checks, balances, scrutiny and criticism.

The big picture: The danger in moving so fast, so wide is losing vital, seasoned talent in hard-to-fill, essential governmental roles. It sets a precedent for future presidents to quickly remake the government in their image or ideological mold — and extend the power of the presidency.

• Trump advisers see this much differently, of course. They argue the government is filled with anti-Trump activists and bureaucratic lifers who can be eliminated with little cost. The depth and breadth of actions in the first two weeks show the results.

Zoom out: In the first 12 days of Trump II, the president also revoked clearances and government security protection for several former officials.

• In a move with city-by-city repercussions across America, Trump temporarily froze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans. A second federal judge, in Rhode Island, on Friday ordered a temporary pause.
• Trump also offered about 2 million federal employees the chance to resign and get paid through Sept. 30 under a "deferred resignation deal."

Zoom in: This is unprecedented territory for Washington governance. Take the early strikes against the FBI and its role in investigating and prosecuting those involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

• Not only did Trump take the unprecedented step of pardoning virtually all involved, including violent criminals. His team is hunting down those involved in the probe, ousting many. Some of these prosecutors and officials didn't choose the case but were assigned to do it, did their job, and moved on.

Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove identified more than a half-dozen FBI senior executives who were ordered to retire or be fired by Monday, AP reports.

• Bove asked for the names and titles of FBI employees who worked on investigations into the Capitol riot — a list the bureau's acting director said could number in the thousands.
• "Forcing out both agents and prosecutors who worked on Jan. 6 cases would amount to a wide-scale assault on the Justice Department," the N.Y. Times notes (gift link).

Then consider the Friday night announcement about Pentagon workspace for top news organizations. Every administration has the option of who gets seats and who doesn't.

• But the message to mainstream media was unmistakable and not masked. The Pentagon said invitations will go out to the New York Post, One America News Network and Breitbart (Trump-friendly outlets), plus Huffington Post (which doesn't have a Pentagon correspondent and didn't request a space).

NBC News said in a statement: "We're disappointed by the decision to deny us access to a broadcasting booth at the Pentagon that we've used for many decades. Despite the significant obstacles this presents to our ability to gather and report news in the national public interest, we will continue to report with the same integrity and rigor NBC News always has."

• NPR said in a statement to Axios: "This decision interferes with the ability of millions of Americans to directly hear from Pentagon leadership, and with NPR's public interest mission to serve Americans who turn to our network of local public media stations in all 50 states. NPR will continue to report with vigor and integrity on the transformation this Administration has promised to deliver. NPR urges the Pentagon to expand the offices available to press within the building so that all outlets covering the Pentagon receive equal access."
• N.Y. Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander said in a statement to Axios: "This move to expel The Times and other independent, fact-based news outlets from the Pentagon's press spaces is a concerning development. The Department of Defense has the largest discretionary budget in the government, millions of Americans in uniform under its direction, and control of a vast arsenal funded by taxpayers. The Times is committed to covering the Pentagon fully and fairly. Steps designed to impede access are clearly not in the public interest."

The bottom line: Moves like this are designed to send signals and make plain the consequences of tough coverage.

• Go deeper: Some federal websites go dark.

Editor's note: Updates with NPR, N.Y. Times statements.