The first roll call will be tense, but House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has a clear path to winning the speaker election on Friday.

• "I think we get it done on the first round," Johnson told Fox Business on Thursday.

Why it matters: On paper, Johnson has a better outlook than former Speaker Kevin McCarthy did in 2023.

• McCarthy had a four-seat margin in January 2023, and five Republicans were public "no" votes ahead of the speaker election.
• Johnson has a two-seat margin and just one public GOP "no" vote ahead of the election. That's Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).

"It feels like it's different from two years ago," one House Republican told Axios.

• Johnson's skeptics, the lawmaker said, are "looking for a couple policy accommodations" while McCarthy's "had an ax to grind."
• Case in point: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who tried to oust Johnson last year, said Thursday she'll vote for Johnson and urged others to get on board.

President-elect Trump is also involved. He called one of the holdouts — Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — to press him to back Johnson, Punchbowl reported Thursday.

• In 2023, Trump notably intervened after McCarthy had lost several rounds of balloting.
• This time he's twisting arms ahead of the big event.

Zoom in: Mainstream GOP lawmakers have warned Johnson against handshake deals with conservatives, Axios scooped this afternoon.

• "There are significant communications," said one of the lawmakers, who told Axios that these GOP moderates are warning Johnson: "Don't do what [former speaker Kevin] McCarthy did."
• "Don't give promises upon which you can't deliver. Don't give promises that require us to do things that we don't want to do, that are beyond reasonable," the lawmaker said.

Establishment Republicans loathe the idea of making Roy the chair of the House Rules Committee.

• That is a "very unpopular initiative for many Republicans," a House Republican told Axios.

The bottom line: The speaker says he's "open" to some conservative demands.

• The big one: No putting big-ticket bills on the floor under suspension of the rules. Many of those suspension votes were because House GOP leaders surrendered control of the House Rules Committee in January 2023.
• Johnson ran into this buzzsaw several times last year before getting help from Democrats on must-pass bills. Conservatives want this trend to end, boxing in Johnson unless he stuffs Rules with more speaker-friendly votes.
• Democrats seem uninterested in bailing out Johnson — and by extension, Trump, on must-pass bills that can't get by the Freedom Caucus.

There's only one upside after Thursday night's spectacular failure for House Speaker Mike Johnson, President-elect Trump and Elon Musk: They now have a long list of Republicans who dared to defy them.

Why it matters: Johnson is learning what a co-speakership with Trump — and to an extent, Musk — will look like.

• It's obvious Trump can kill a bill.
• It's less clear whether Trump or Musk can get legislation across the finish line by publicly browbeating GOP lawmakers.

🗳 Johnson lost 38 Republican votes and gained just two Democratic ones on a Trump-endorsed plan to fund the government for three months and suspend the debt ceiling for two years.

• The final 174-235 tally is a disaster for leadership's Plan B.
• Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Thursday they won't try their luck with the House Rules Committee on a party-line vote.

Now comes Plan C — yet to be named — after Republicans wasted a day negotiating with themselves.

• The hard talks with House and Senate Democrats have yet to happen and the government shuts down in just over 24 hours.

Zoom in: Trump is sparking a confrontation with his closest allies in Congress, with Johnson caught in the middle.

• Freedom Caucus members are both MAGA meat-eaters and big-time opponents of raising the debt ceiling.
• Now their president-elect is asking for a blank check and threatening primaries for any holdouts.
• He called for a primary challenge to Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who responded by calling the Trump-blessed bill "embarrassing" and "shameful." Roy voted no on the bill.

Other GOP "no" votes were a Freedom Caucus who's who:

• It includes Andy Ogles and Tim Burchett of Tennessee; Ralph Norman of South Carolina; Bob Good of Virginia; Rich McCormick of Georgia; and Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar of Arizona.

The bottom line: The rough reality for Johnson is that he needs Democratic votes to advance legislation — and Republican votes to remain speaker.

• On Thursday he realized how short he may be on both.

President-elect Trump on Wednesday came out against the 3-month spending stopgap introduced by House Speaker Mike Johnson to avoid a government shutdown.

Why it matters: Trump's opposition could torpedo the bill just two days before the deadline to keep the government running. He further complicated matters for GOP leadership on the Hill with a surprise demand that they raise the debt ceiling.

State of play: The continuing resolution brokered by Johnson would require a 2/3 majority to pass under a suspension of House rules.

• House Republicans spent much of Wednesday threatening to vote against the legislation, with Elon Musk leading the charge on X.
• Conservative lawmakers argue the 1,500-page bill is too bloated and are pushing for a "clean" short-term spending measure that will allow Trump to try to pass his own appropriations legislation in January.
• With Trump now publicly opposed, Johnson will likely move in that direction, a House Republican close to the speaker told Axios' Andrew Solender.

What he's saying: Trump and Vice President-elect Vance lodged a series of objections to the bill in a joint statement, including that it would give members of Congress a raise.

• They also claimed it would give "sweetheart provisions for government censors and for Liz Cheney," without specifying what those were.
• Trump also tried to shift blame for any potential shutdown onto the Democrats, despite the fact that his intervention could very well cause it. "If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF."

The other side: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries countered that Republicans had now been "ordered to shut down the government," adding: "you break the bipartisan agreement, you own the consequences that follow."

• "We have a deal with Republicans and we're sticking with it," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told senators on Wednesday.
• "Triggering a damaging government shutdown would hurt families who are gathering to meet with their loved ones and endanger the basic services Americans from veterans to Social Security recipients rely on," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement Wednesday.

The intrigue: The Trump-Vance statement included a twist: they also want Congress to raise the debt ceiling, an entirely separate process from funding the government.

• "Increasing the debt ceiling is not great but we'd rather do it on Biden's watch," they said.

What's next: If Congress can't pass a continuing resolution in time, the government will shut down at midnight on Friday.

President Biden signed a presidential pardon for his son Hunter Biden on Sunday, a reversal from previous statements he would grant him neither a pardon nor commutation.

Why it matters: Presidents regularly sign pardons at the end of their terms. They rarely involve cases where their own family members are in the middle of the legal process. Hunter Biden was set to appear at sentencing hearings on Dec. 12 and Dec. 16.

Driving the news: "No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter's cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son — and that is wrong," Biden said in a statement.

• "There has been an effort to break Hunter — who has been five and a half years sober, even in the face of unrelenting attacks and selective prosecution. In trying to break Hunter, they've tried to break me — and there's no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough."

State of play: Hunter Biden was the first child of a sitting president to face criminal charges. He was convicted on felony gun charges in Delaware in June, and pleaded guilty on felony tax charges in California in September.

• The pardon issued Sunday covers all acts from Jan. 1, 2014 to Dec. 1, 2024.
• Hunter Biden's attorney Abbe Lowell filed to have his client's charges dismissed in both cases in the wake of the pardon. Legal confirmation that the president's son had accepted the pardon was also filed.

What he's saying: Hunter Biden said in a statement on Sunday that he has "admitted and taken responsibility for my mistakes during the darkest days of my addiction — mistakes that have been exploited to publicly humiliate and shame me and my family for political sport."

• He continued: "Despite all of this, I have maintained my sobriety for more than five years because of my deep faith and the unwavering love and support of my family and friends.

Zoom out: Congressional Republicans swiftly blasted the pardon of Hunter Biden — who was a central figure in GOP probes, including an impeachment inquiry into the president that focused in large part on his son's business dealings.

• President-elect Trump responded by raising concerns about the convictions of the Jan. 6 rioters.

Between the lines: There's not much scope for overturning a presidential pardon, which can only be issued for federal offenses.

• It would be "highly unusual" for a president to pardon someone before they are indicted, convicted or sentenced for a federal offense, per a Justice Department statement on its website in the FAQs section.
• However, it noted there had been a few instances of this occurring — including when Trump pardoned former Sheriff Joe Arpaio "and others after they were charged and convicted, but prior to sentencing."

Go deeper: Democrats meet Hunter Biden pardon with groans and shrugs

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President-elect Trump is demanding that Senate Republicans show up and try to stop Democrats from confirming more judges.

Why it matters: President Biden is now 15 judicial confirmations away from the record set by Trump in his first term.

• Trump posted Wednesday on "X": "The Democrats are trying to stack the Courts with Radical Left Judges on their way out the door. Republican Senators need to Show Up and Hold the Line — No more Judges confirmed before Inauguration Day!"

Democrats confirmed two more judges on Wednesday by 50-48 margins, with Republican Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Mike Braun (Indiana) missing the votes.

• If they'd voted, Vice President Harris would have been unavailable to break the 50-50 tie as she's currently vacationing in Hawaii.
• Cruz arrived back in D.C. on Wednesday, leaving Braun as the only member still absent.
• The issue came up in a GOP lunch on Wednesday. Senators discussed whether there was a way for him to resign and someone to fill his seat faster. Braun was elected governor of Indiana in November.

"I am very angry – 90% of success in life is showing up," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters.

• "I've got a 4th Circuit nominee that if my colleagues show up on my side I've secured Democratic votes to defeat. That is very personal to me," he said.
• "I had a member ask me, 'Well, when is the vote?' I said, 'When you're not here,'" Tillis told reporters.

Zoom in: Senate Republicans, including incoming Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) are in a showdown over judges with outgoing Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

• Thune unveiled a plan Monday to aggressively defend against Biden's final nominees, Axios has reported.
• Schumer is prepared to grind through that defense with late night and weekend votes.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more reporting.

The nomination of MAGA fire-breather Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general has put soon-to-be Senate Majority Leader John Thune on the hot seat.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump is daring Senate Republicans to defy him, just days after Thune agreed to consider recess appointments to speed up confirmations.

• This was the biggest day of Thune's career and was supposed to be a celebratory afternoon for the winning leaders.
• Instead, Trump handed Thune a conference-splitter.

Trump's announcement that he will nominate Gaetz was met with audible gasps by House Republicans during their conference meeting this afternoon, multiple sources in the room told us.

• With the Senate GOP at 53 seats next year, Thune could only afford to lose three GOP senators and still get Gaetz confirmed.
• Thune's other option: Let Trump make a recess appointment so Gaetz can skip a confirmation and work as acting AG. Trump had two confirmed AGs and five acting AGs in his first term.

Zoom in: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was "shocked" by Trump's pick: "This shows why the advice and consent process is so important and I'm sure that there will be a lot of questions raised at his hearing."

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called Gaetz "not a serious candidate," the N.Y. Times reports.
• Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) told us Gaetz has "got his work really cut out for him" to get confirmed.
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.): "I'm all about counting votes, and I would probably think he's got some work cut out for him."

Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was noncommittal: "Yeah, I don't know yet. I'm going to have to think about that one," he told CNN.

Between the lines: One leader who wasn't surprised was House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said Trump tipped him off to the nomination this morning.

• Gaetz resigned from the House Wednesday, Johnson said in the evening.
• Gaetz was under a House ethics investigation for potential "sexual misconduct and illicit drug use."
• If confirmed, Gaetz would run the Justice Department, which investigated (and didn't charge) him last year in a sex trafficking probe.

Even if the votes aren't there for Gaetz, Thune might have to let the process run its course and convince Trump he tried.

• "We're going to vet and process and look at all the noms when they come forward and we'll see. That's all going to happen in the next few weeks," Thune told CNN this afternoon.

Go deeper: Democrats tear into Trump's Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard

President-elect Trump has narrowed in on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for secretary of state, he announced on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Rubio is a foreign policy hawk who was on Trump's vice presidential short list.

What they're saying: "Leading the U.S. Department of State is a tremendous responsibility, and I am honored by the trust President Trump has placed in me," Rubio said in a statement.

• The New York Times was first to report Rubio's expected nomination on Monday.
• Trump called the senator a "highly respected leader and a very powerful voice for freedom" in a statement.
• "He will be a strong advocate for our nation, a true friend to our allies and a fearless warrior who will never back down to our adversaries," the president-elect said.

Zoom in: Rubio has served in the Senate since 2011. He ran for president in 2016 before dropping out and endorsing Trump.

• He endorsed now-eliminated Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader in the secret ballot election on Wednesday, won by Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.).
• Rubio voted against $95 billion in Ukraine aid in April, and has called for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia — even if that means Russia keeps some of the territory from the invasion.
• Rubio, who would be the first Latino secretary of state, opposes normalizing relations with Cuba and is a noted China hawk, Reuters notes.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is responsible for appointing Rubio's successor, who would serve until a special election in 2026 to determine who finishes the term.

• Potential choices include Lt. Gov. Jeanette Núñez, Attorney General Ashley Moody and chief of staff James Uthmeier, Axios Tampa Bay's Yacob Reyes reported.

Zoom out: Trump reportedly plans to name Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) as his national security adviser, Axios reported on Monday.

Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: The Cabinet pageant

Editor's note: This story was updated with Trump's official announcement and Rubio's statement.

Sen. John Thune has won the Senate GOP leader race, succeeding Mitch McConnell after an 18-year tenure, according to two sources in the room.

Why it matters: The South Dakota Republican is now the second most powerful man in Washington.

• His win is a victory for the post-Trump establishment. He's not a natural, true-believer Trump guy like Rick Scott and his supporters are. Scott was eliminated on the first ballot, despite heavy MAGA pressure.
• Scott challenged McConnell in 2022, falling far short but getting 10 GOP votes.
• John Cornyn was an underdog to Thune, and ended up finishing in a close second.

What he's saying: "I am extremely honored to have earned the support of my colleagues to lead the Senate in the 119th Congress, and I am beyond proud of the work we have done to secure our majority and the White House," Thune said in a statement released shortly after the vote.

• "This Republican team is united behind President Trump's agenda, and our work starts today," he added.

Zoom out: Sen. John Barrasso will officially be the next majority whip, after running unopposed.

• Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) easily won his race against Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for the No. 3 position of conference chair.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comments from Thune.

The Senate Republican leader race will come down to Sens. John Thune and John Cornyn after Rick Scott received the fewest votes on the first ballot, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Scott got a huge wave of backing from Trump allies and MAGA influencers, but was unable to make headway with his fellow GOP senators.

• Scott's elimination ensures that a more traditional Republican will lead the new 53-seat majority.
• Scott challenged Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2022, falling far short but getting 10 GOP votes.