Almost half of Republican voters believe the U.S. military should round up undocumented immigrants and put them into detention camps until they can be deported, a new survey finds.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump has suggested that he'll use the military in immigration raids and turn to a 1798 law to put immigrants in camps.

• His base appears to support those plans despite the likely fierce opposition from most Americans.

By the numbers: 46% of Republicans endorse using the military in mass deportation raids and placing immigrants in camps, according to a nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) post-election survey.

• That's more than double that of independent voters (19%) who agree with the idea.
• And that's more than five times as Democratic voters (8%) who supported this policy.

What they're saying: "There have been questions in the Trump era where I've thought...I can't believe that we need to know the answer to this question," Robert P. Jones, president and founder of PRRI, tells Axios.

• "I guess the good news is that three-quarters of the country rejects this idea that we should be putting immigrants in the country illegally into internment camps guarded by the military."
• Jones said the bad news is that nearly half of people who consider themselves members of a mainstream political party do.

State of play: Trump said in his recent TIME "Person of the Year" interview that he would be open to using camps to hold detained immigrants in the U.S.

• Trump in the TIME interview suggested deporting 21 million people, which would likely require an increase in detention centers to hold people suspected of being in the U.S. without authorization before they're deported.

Reality check: Study after study shows there are 11 million undocumented people in the country, not 21 million, as Trump has repeatedly and falsely said.

• There are roughly 24.5 million noncitizen immigrants in the U.S., including those here awaiting asylum decisions or otherwise here lawfully, according to the Pew Research Center.
• The U.S. immigration system's backlog of 3.7 million court cases will take four years to resolve at the current pace — but that could balloon to 16 years under Trump's mass deportation plan, according to an Axios analysis.

Zoom in: The PRRI survey also found that American voters who hold highly authoritarian views were six times as likely to endorse putting undocumented immigrants into such camps than American voters who reject authoritarianism (48% v. 8%).

Methodology: The American Values Survey was conducted online Nov. 8 and Dec. 2, 2024. The poll is based on a representative sample of 5,772 adults (age 18 and older) living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia who are part of Ipsos' Knowledge Panel®.

• The margin of sampling error is +/- 1.72 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample.

The fatal beating of a Black man by white corrections officers at an upstate New York prison that was caught on body cam video has sparked anger, investigations and planned protests.

The big picture: New York State Attorney General Letitia James on Friday released body cam footage showing correction officers attacking, punching and choking inmate Robert Brooks as he lies in a semi-conscious state.

• Brooks was pronounced dead in Wing Hospital in Utica, New York, the day after the Dec. 9 attack, officials said.

Catch up quick: In the footage from four officers, the 43-year-old Brooks is seen exiting a prison transport van and entering a medical exam room with prison staff at Marcy Correctional Facility in Marcy, N.Y.

• Brooks is shown with his hands cuffed behind his back as several corrections officers, who all appear to be white, take turns beating him.
• James said during a Friday video statement that none of the corrections officers had activated their body cams, so videos have no sound.

State of play: The death of Brooks comes more than four years after the murder of George Floyd prompted a racial reckoning and demands for reform in how law enforcement interacts in communities of color.

• Federal police reforms died amid political bickering in a divided Congress and momentum for reforms halted amid rising crime during the pandemic.
• President Biden bought back pattern and practice investigations into police departments — something President-elect Trump halted during his first term. However, none of the dozen probes have led to any reform agreements.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said Saturday she ordered a full investigation into the death of Brooks and asked officials to begin the process of firing 14 people involved in the attack.

• "Like all New Yorkers, I was outraged and horrified after seeing footage of the senseless killing of Robert Brooks," she said in a statement.
• "The State of New York has zero tolerance for individuals who break the law, and I am committed to holding everyone involved fully accountable."
• James said her office also has opened an investigation.

Zoom out: The corrections department on Saturday provided a list of 13 employees, including correctional officers, sergeants and a nurse, who have been suspended without pay and another correctional officer who has resigned, per AP.

Context: Brooks had been serving a 12-year prison sentence for first-degree assault since 2017, according to the corrections department.

• He was transferred from Mohawk Correctional Facility to Marcy Correctional Facility, both in Oneida County.
• It's not known why he was handcuffed, what prompted the attack or what was said during the beating.

What we're hearing: Civil rights and advocacy groups are planning demonstrations around New York in reaction to the Brooks case. One is scheduled for Monday outside the New York State Governor's Mansion.

• Activists say that his death is part of a larger culture of violence within the New York Department of Corrections.
• "Robert Brooks is the latest victim of a system that continues to fail," Ana María Archila and Jasmine Grippe, co-directors of the New York Working Families Party, said in a statement.

Mexico is launching a smartphone app that allows Mexican migrants to warn relatives and instantly alert the nearest consulate if U.S. immigration agents detain them, officials said Friday.

Why it matters: The announcement came as part of a broad warning from the administration of Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum that the nation will defend the human rights of Mexican citizens in the U.S. amid President-elect Trump's mass deportation plans.

Zoom in: Mexico Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente said at a press conference that the "emergency notification" app will go live in January.

• "I have personally attended several open meetings where the key message is to tell our fellow citizens that they are not alone and will not be alone," De la Fuente said.

Zoom out: De la Fuente said Mexico's "Know Your Rights" program will be part of a rapid response to possible enforcement scenarios or "other intimidating actions."

• Mexico's legal protection program includes 329 legal advisors at all 53 consulates in the U.S., along with voluntary support from consultants and law firms across the country, he said.

State of play: Trump has said his mass deportation plan will likely include U.S. citizens who are the children of undocumented immigrants and the erection of new detention camps around the country.

• More than two dozen Republican governors also said that they'll use "state law enforcement or the National Guard" to help with mass deportation, raising alarm from advocacy groups.

The intrigue: Mexico is encouraging all Mexican citizens with children born in the U.S. to register them with the consulates.

• "Not everyone has done this yet. We strongly encourage everyone to register with our consulates as this enables us to provide legal protection when needed," De la Fuente said.

Reality check: These mass deportations will also likely encounter several procedural roadblocks, and the estimated $150 billion to $350 billion cost of executing them is steep.

• Currently, the U.S. does not have enough holding cells to house millions of people placed in deportation proceedings.
• The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) tells Axios that temporary holding centers will likely be inhumane and poorly built and the group plans on monitoring them.

Flashback: Trump said last month he spoke to Sheinbaum about stopping migration into the U.S.

• Trump said in a Truth Social post that he had "a wonderful conversation" with Sheinbaum, claiming she "agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border."
• In a statement, Sheinbaum said she and Trump discussed Mexico's strategy on migration and that she told him Central American caravans are not arriving at the northern border as they're being taken care of in Mexico.

The bottom line: Any mass deportations would entail expelling people into Mexico, which would draw pushback because it'd overwhelm the country's capacity to manage the flow.

A Colorado man who allegedly attacked an AAPI TV reporter and demanded to know whether the journalist was a U.S. citizen, saying, "This is Trump's America now," is facing bias-motivated charges.

Driving the news: Patrick Thomas Egan, 39, was arrested on Dec. 18 in Grand Junction, Colorado, after police said he stalked KKCO/KJCT reporter Ja'Ronn Alex's vehicle for around 40 miles.

Zoom in: Egan tackled and choked Alex before several people intervened and restrained the suspect until officers arrived on the scene, Grand Junction police said.

• According to an arrest affidavit obtained by the AP, Egan, driving a taxi, had pulled up next to Alex at a stoplight and asked: "Are you even a U.S. citizen? This is Trump's America now! I'm a Marine and I took an oath to protect this country from people like you!"
• The attack occurred outside of the television station and was caught on camera, the arrest affidavit said.
• Egan was transported to the Mesa County Detention Facility and charged with bias-motivated crimes, second-degree assault, and harassment.

Egan's lawyer, Ruth Swift, did not immediately return an email from Axios.

Zoom out: Alex is a native of Detroit. KKCO/KJCT reported that he was driving a news vehicle at the time.

• Alex told police that he believed he had been followed and attacked because he is a Pacific Islander, per the AP.

Context: The Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at California State University, San Bernardino, recently shared with Axios new data that showed 2023 hate crimes overall hit records across 10 of the nation's largest cities, rising 16%.

• Hate crimes against all Asian American communities have been on the rise since the pandemic, with 1 in 3 Asian American adults reporting being the subject of a hate act last year.

Grand Junction is around 250 miles west of Denver.

U.S. homelessness increased 18% this year, according to federal data released on Friday, with children being the age group that experienced the largest increase.

The big picture: Homelessness among nearly all populations reached record levels this year, but of the exacerbating factors have balanced out since the survey was conducted in January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development said in its report.

By the numbers: More than 770,000 people experienced homelessness on a single night in January 2024, per the point-in-time survey.

• Nearly 150,000 children experienced homelessness when the survey was taken, reflecting a 33% increase over 2023.
• Black people were 32% of the population identifying as homeless, despite making up 12% of the total U.S. population, HUD said. This figure decreased from 37% in 2023.
• Veterans reported continued declines in homelessness, decreasing by 8%.

Context: The migrant crisis, wildfires in Maui, Hawai'i that displaced thousands and high housing costs contributed to the stark rise and record high in the HUD report.

• "In the 13 communities that reported being affected by migration, family homelessness more than doubled," per HUD. Meanwhile, "in the remaining 373 communities, the rise in families experiencing homelessness was less than 8%."
• Chicago and Denver both announced an end to their migrant shelter systems this fall in response to decreases in shelter censuses.

Zoom in: "This report reflects data collected a year ago and likely does not represent current circumstances, given changed policies and conditions," HUD said in a statement.

• The survey was taken at the end of significant rental cost increases. Since then, rents have flattened or decreased.
• Rental costs have also stabilized since Maui wildfires exacerbated the housing crisis.
• And migration that rose 39% from 2023 to 2024, dropped later this year with more control on border crossings, HUD said.

Zoom out: Issues around poverty and homelessness got almost no attention during the 2024 election with candidates focusing on middle class concerns.

• A broad measure of poverty for families headed by single mothers rose last year and is now back to 2018 levels, per a new analysis of Census Bureau data from the National Women's Law Center.
• For households led by single mothers, the supplemental measure of poverty increased to 29% in 2023 from 27% in 2022. That's more than 2.7 million families.

The nation's overall poverty rate is 12.4% but it is 21.3% for Black people and 16.9% for Latinos, based on the Census Bureau's 2023 5-year estimates.

• Latinos make up 19% of the population and with other people of color, are set to form a plurality of the country's population by midcentury, but experts say a lack of discussion on Latino poverty is allowing inequalities, and possibly homelessness, to fester and grow.
• Rev. William Barber, of the Poor People's Campaign, tells Axios that the lack of discussion on poverty and low-wage workers prevents the nation from having an honest look at unhoused populations and affordable housing.

Go deeper:

• Homelessness in the U.S. jumped to record level in 2023, government says
• A record 1 in 8 NYC students experienced homelessness last school year

War, financial anxiety and political unpredictability plaguing many nations are clouding this year's Christmas celebrations as nativity scenes go up.

Through the lens: Despite global unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine and migration crises around the world, Christians built and celebrated creative nativity scenes to seek moments of peace. Here are a few images from around the world.

The daughter of the late civil rights leader Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. is telling Americans to "pay attention" to the words of President-elect Trump during his inauguration and also honor her father's birthday.

Why it matters: The inauguration and MLK Day fall on the same date in January, creating anxiety among many Black Americans who strongly opposed Trump amid his repeated use of bigoted language during his campaign.

The big picture: Some Black Americans were urging others to tune out Trump during his inauguration speech and instead focus on the legacy of the fallen civil rights leader.

Yes, but: Bernice A. King, the youngest child of the civil rights icon and Coretta Scott King, recently posted on Instagram that everyone in the U.S. should do both.

• "l certainly understand the desire to tune out rhetoric, ideology, and policies with which we passionately disagree and which contradict the spirit of the Beloved Community," King wrote.
• "However, we must pay attention to what President-Elect Trump speaks on that day, even if by transcript and video later."
• She said that activists cannot develop "a strategic, love-centered strategy for addressing language and legislation" if they are not also strategic in listening and leadership.
• "This is not the time for ignorance."

Zoom in: Trump is scheduled to be sworn into office on Jan. 20 in Washington, D.C.

• That same day, dozens of cities and towns nationwide will be holding MLK Day events, speeches, parades and volunteer events.
• The King Center in Atlanta will have a commemorative service that morning, which will be streamed live.

State of play: During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said undocumented immigrants were "poisoning the blood of our country," language echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.

• Trump also compared himself to Martin Luther King Jr. and suggested he drew a similar crowd size to his first inauguration as King did when he gave his "I Have a Dream" speech at the March on Washington.
• Trump also called North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who lost a race for governor, "Martin Luther King on steroids." Robinson lost following a CNN story that alleged he called himself a "Black NAZI" on a porn site.

Zoom out: After Trump's win, Martin Luther King III, the civil rights leader's son, told dejected supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris to "keep moving forward."

• King III and his wife, Arndrea Waters King, spearheaded the creation of a new Black-Latino coalition in the days before the election.

What we're watching: Next year will mark the 60th anniversary of two important civil rights events — the "Bloody Sunday" attack on Selma civil rights marchers and the signing of the Voting Rights Act.

• If Trump attends any commemorative gatherings on those landmark events, he will likely have to see members of the King family.

New data suggest that the homicide surge of 2020 was driven largely by men and teen boys who were either laid off or saw their schools close during pandemic shutdowns.

Why it matters: Record spikes in homicides during the COVID-19 crisis puzzled officials, and some blamed social unrest and mass protests. But a Brookings Institution analysis reviewed by Axios indicates that alienated men and youths, especially in low-income areas, likely were behind the jump.

Catch up quick: U.S. cities saw their homicide rates surge by an average of nearly 30% in 2020, the biggest year-over-year jump in recorded U.S. history.

• Homicide rates ticked up for two more years until 2023, when rates started to plummet. Early numbers show the national homicide rate in 2024 is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels.
• President-elect Trump cited rising crime (while crime was declining) during his campaign, and falsely blamed immigrants for the pandemic-era jump in homicides.

Zoom in: The Brookings findings were based on thousands of police records before and after the 2020 homicide surge.

• Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods in March and early April 2020 averaged greater increases in homicides from May to December that year than other areas, the analysis found.
• Unemployment and truancy also help explain why homicides remained high in 2021 and 2022 and then fell in late 2023 and 2024, the analysis found.

Zoom out: Almost all the neighborhoods with the highest homicide rates were places where at least 30% of the residents lived below the poverty line, which in 2020 was about $26,200 in income for a household of four.

• By mid-April 2020, young men laid off because of the pandemic and high school boys whose schools were shut down made up about 1 in 30 of those living in low-income neighborhoods, Brookings found.
• Many of the men had worked for restaurants and hotels, industries and the pandemic disproportionally hit them, the report found.
• Many students pushed out of school often didn't have access to high-speed internet for online classes.
• The Brookings report analyzed data in three dozen of the nation's largest cities.

The intrigue: The report did not look at women and teen girls as they weren't drivers of violence during a pandemic that caused devastation across the country.

What they're saying: "You had this combined effect of places where crimes always existed, and then this massive influx of young boys who were out of school and young men who were out of work all at the same time," Rhett Morris, co-author of the report, tells Axios.

• Rohit Acharya, another co-author of the report, said many of the homicide hot spots identified in the analysis tended to have few mental health resources or community centers.

The report recommends that communities invest in more mental health services and violence prevention programs while developing intervention programs for men who've committed acts of violence.

What we're watching: The Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) is expected to release its preliminary 2024 crime stats from major cities next month.

• Early estimates suggest it will show another drop in homicides.

An Italian-born nun who confronted Billy the Kid, calmed angry mobs, opened New Mexico territory hospitals and later gave refuge to immigrant children is getting closer to Sainthood from the Roman Catholic Church.

The big picture: The push for Sister Blandina Segale's sainthood comes as President-elect Trump vows mass deportation and Catholic groups prepare to assist immigrants going into hiding.

• If she becomes a saint, she'd be Patron Saint of Immigrant Children.

State of play: Some Catholics believe Segale is responsible for miracles in helping immigrant children detained at the U.S.-Mexico border.

• New Mexico Catholic officials visited the Vatican last week to make their case for Sainthood before Catholic historians amid a review that could take years, even decades. The Santa Fe Archdiocese and the New Mexico Conference of Catholic Bishops confirmed the meeting to Axios.

Catch up quick: Segale supporters in 2015 presented their case before the Archdiocese of Santa Fe at a ceremonial "first inquiry" on why Sister Blandina Segale should become a saint.

• The public inquiry determined there was enough evidence to move her case through the largely secret process at the Vatican.
• Witnesses said Segale fought against the cruel treatment of Native Americans and sought to stop the trafficking of women as sex slaves.
• They also testified that in death, Segale has helped cancer patients and poor immigrants who have prayed to her for help.

Zoom in: A group of Vatican historians last week voted to affirm Segale's case — a vital hurdle to move it along, Allen Sánchez, New Mexico Conference of Catholic Bishops executive director, told Axios from Rome.

• "So we move to this next step. This is important because of what is happening in the United States," Sánchez said.
• "The health care system she started is now one of the largest nonprofit health care organizations in the country called CommonSpirit, with 145 hospitals in 24 states."

Flashback: Segale, a nun with the Sisters of Charity of Cincinnati, came to Trinidad, Colorado, in 1877 to teach poor children. She was later transferred to Santa Fe, New Mexico, where she co-founded public and Catholic schools.

• While in New Mexico, she worked with the poor, the sick and immigrants. She also advocated on behalf of Hispanics and Native Americans who were losing their land to swindlers.
• Victoria Marie Forde of the Sisters of Charity of Cincinnati said documents showed Segale went out of her way to provide assistance to Italian-American immigrants and protect Mexican Americans facing violence in western territories.

The intrigue: Her encounters with Billy the Kid — an American outlaw in the Old West linked to several killings — remain among her most popular and well-known Western frontier adventures.

• According to one story, she received a tip that The Kid was coming to her town to scalp the four doctors who refused to treat his friend's gunshot wound.
• Segale nursed the friend to health, and when Billy went to Trinidad to thank her, she asked him to abandon his violent plan. He agreed.

Fun fact: Her encounters with Old West outlaws later became the stuff of legend and were the subject of an episode of the CBS series "Death Valley Days."

• The episode was called "The Fastest Nun in the West."

Some Catholic and evangelical leaders say they will unpack the Holy Family's immigration plight during Christmas services to offer hope for immigrants worried about what's coming under President-elect Trump.

Why it matters: Trump and his incoming administration are promising immigration raids — even inside churches — as part of their mass deportation plan, and church leaders say that's already prompting some immigrants to go into hiding.

State of play: Undocumented immigrants appear to be taking Trump at his word — some have left the country, stopped coming to work or disappeared, Allen Sánchez, New Mexico Conference of Catholic Bishops executive director, tells Axios.

• Others are emotionally asking evangelical pastors for protection, Gabriel Salguero, president and co-founder of the National Latino Evangelical Coalition, tells Axios.
• "What I'm telling people in this advent of Christmas is ... Jesus understands you because he lived your reality."

Context: In the Gospel of Matthew, Joseph is told through a dream that King Herod is sending soldiers to kill Baby Jesus over fears He's the new King of the Jews.

• Joseph then gathers Mary and Jesus in the dead of night to flee to Egypt, making them refugees who are escaping persecution.
• They only return to the land of Judea after King Herod has died.

In the Gospel of Luke, Joseph is forced to take a pregnant Mary to Bethlehem to register for the required Roman Empire census.

• She must give birth to Jesus and place Him in a manger because "there was no room for them in the inn."
• The dire situation highlights the humbleness and poverty of the Holy Family, who were forced to travel by order of the government.

Zoom in: Latino evangelical churches will be telling attendees at Christmas services to remember Jesus and his family were forced to migrate to Egypt for reasons that they could not control, Salguero says.

• Salguero says the immigrant story is Christ's story. "Our primary call is to love our neighbors and love the immigrant and love the stranger, and we're going to live that through."
• "There may not be room at the inn, but there is room at the church."
• Similarly, Catholic churches will share the Christmas story as a call to action to everyone, Sánchez says.

Zoom out: New Mexico's three Catholic bishops, in the state with the largest percentage of Hispanic residents in the nation, called on Trump this month to reconsider his plan to carry out the largest deportation in U.S. history.

• Frank Schuster, the Auxiliary Bishop of Seattle, also released a video saying the church does not have the right to "ask for papers."

Yes, but: Conservative white evangelical church leaders, many of whom supported Trump, have endorsed mass deportations and some have used racist language to describe immigrants.

• That view comes from how some white evangelicals interpret the Bible's Book of Revelation as Heaven being a closed-off place, Yale Divinity professor Yii-Jan Lin tells Axios.
• Some English-speaking Latino evangelicals who belong to white-majority churches also supported Trump..

The big picture: Religious leaders of many faiths have long played a role in immigrant rights.

• Some have allowed undocumented immigrants to find sanctuary in churches, where immigration authorities have typically not arrested people.
• During Trump's first term, some churches erected nativity installations depicting Mary, Joseph and Jesus separated in cages to protest Trump's immigrant family separation policy.

Now, church leaders say they want to use Christmas to send immigrants a message: The family of Jesus experienced what you experienced, and the church will be a place of refuge in the coming months.

The Bible's Book of Revelation has influenced U.S. immigration policy, with interpretations of America as the New Jerusalem and unwanted migrants as the castaways meant for Hell, a New Testament scholar says in a new book.

Why it matters: White American evangelicals continue to shape U.S. policy by using strict interpretations of the Bible as a guide, and Yale Divinity professor Yii-Jan Lin argues this has always been the case around immigration.

Zoom in: "Immigration and Apocalypse: How the Book of Revelation Shaped American Immigration" examines how the Apocalypse story has been used to determine who belongs in the U.S. — and who does not.

• From Columbus in 1492 to Trump's evangelical base, Lin argues that the Book of Revelation has shaped how the United States is seen as the Promised Land for the Chosen People, who must also keep out "hordes" of unhealthy heathens.
• That interpretation has influenced popular culture, church sermons, and restrictive immigration laws throughout U.S. history, Lin argues.

Catch up quick: The Book of Revelation, written by John of Patmos in the First Century, is the last book of the New Testament and envisions a violent Second Coming of Jesus.

• Told in allegorical language, Jesus is locked in a cosmic battle with the forces of evil. The Chosen are accepted into a New Jerusalem, while those kept out are portrayed as subhuman, sexually deviant, and disgusting.

In an interview with Axios, Lin says she came up with the idea for her book after being asked to share her thoughts on apocalyptic Bible passages with Asian Americans in the Bay Area in 2014.

• She remembers writer Junot Díaz asking, "Is there anything more apocalyptic than immigration?"
• "That combined with thinking about the place names of where I was living, so, Golden Gate, Golden State, Angel Island ... Chinese called San Francisco 'Gold Mountain.' There's this heavenly arrival and a promise of paradise for immigrants."
• But the other possibility for immigrants could include disaster, catastrophe, and rejection, Lin says.

The intrigue: Lin says that, while researching for her book, she found racist "Yellow Peril" novels of the 1880s, drowned in the Book of Revelation imagery, warning that Chinese immigrants are taking over the country. Congress eventually passed Chinese Exclusion Act.

• Robert Jeffress, an evangelical preacher and prominent Trump supporter, told "Fox & Friends" in 2019: "The Bible says even Heaven itself is going to have a wall around it. Not everybody is going to be allowed in."
• Lin says that's a direct reference to the Book of Revelation.

Zoom out: Lin says Trump's talk of an immigrant invasion or immigrants eating house pets is also language straight from Revelation.

• As some people believe "cities have been conquered and invaded," Trump has been seen "as a savior, Messiah-like....(a) Chosen One."

What we're watching: Progressive-leaning Christians are expected to use other passages in the Bible that welcome "the stranger" as a way to counter anti-immigrant sentiment, Lin says.

• Yet it will be difficult for them to use the Book of Revelation, too, since it's so exclusionary, she says.

Approval rates for asylum seekers in the U.S. are dropping dramatically in the run-up to the second Trump administration, and it's become particularly difficult for Latin American immigrants to get asylum, an Axios review finds.

Why it matters: The decrease reflects the Biden administration's new restrictions on asylum, and likely the anticipation of President-elect Trump's impending crackdown on immigration.

• New data also show that immigrants from Eastern Europe and Asia are far more likely to be granted asylum than those from Central and South America.
• A big reason for that disparity: To help clear huge backlogs in asylum cases, immigration courts have sped up hearings by using what many call a "rocket docket."
• That appears to be helping to drive down asylum approvals for Central and South Americans, who often need more time to make their cases for asylum than people fleeing war or socialism in Eastern Europe and Asia.

By the numbers: The latest case-by-case immigration court records, for October, show asylum grant rates had declined to just 35.8%, according to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.

• That's the lowest rate since May 2021, when the U.S. was moving away from COVID-19 restrictions and waves of new asylum seekers came to the U.S.-Mexico border, an Axios review found.
• Asylum approval rates were highest in May 2022 and September 2023, peaking at over 50%.
• Immigration courts closed 900,000 immigration and asylum cases from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024 —the most cleared cases in a fiscal year, and 235,000 more than the previous year, TRAC reports.

Zoom in: Asylum seekers from Russia, Asia and Eastern Europe were highly successful in getting asylum from U.S. immigration courts in fiscal 2024, Axios' review found.

• Asylum seekers from Russia had the highest approval rate (85.4%) for nationalities with at least 2,000 asylum decisions. China was second, with an approval rate of 76.6%.
• Immigrants from Belarus, Afghanistan, Uganda, Eritrea, Kosovo, and Ukraine all had similar approval rates, but each had just a few hundred asylum decisions.

Mexico had the lowest asylum grant rate (16.6%) for any nationality with at least 2,000 decisions. Among the 4,950 asylum decisions involving Mexicans, only 821 people were granted asylum.

• Immigration courts issued 6,201 asylum decisions from Hondurans — the most of any nationality in fiscal 2024. Only 29.1% were granted asylum.

The intrigue: Venezuela and Cuba had the highest asylum grant rates of all Latin American countries, highlighting how those fleeing socialist regimes historically have had an easier path to asylum in the U.S.

• There were 4,236 asylum seekers from Venezuela in fiscal 2024; 64.5% were granted asylum.
• 2,083 asylum requests came from Cubans; 51.6% were approved.

Between the lines: Asylum seekers can ask for protection in the U.S. if they have been persecuted or fear persecution because of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.

• Proving the need for protection can be extremely difficult, and the massive backlog in immigration courts means applicants may have to wait years before their case is heard.

What we're watching: Any immigration package in Congress next year likely would have new asylum regulations, along with money for more immigration judges.

• Such changes could move more asylum cases through the system — but Trump's plan for mass deportations could result in significantly bigger backlogs.

Most of the nation's 734 immigration judges are seeking to reinstate their union ahead of an expected spike in immigration cases from President-elect Trump's planned mass deportations.

Driving the news: The judges' appeal, scheduled to go before the Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA) on Tuesday, seeks to restore their right to bargain for contracts and have a union — a right stripped from them during Trump's first term.

The big picture: Immigration judges are expecting a huge surge in new cases — adding to an already historic backlog of 3.7 million cases — once Trump launches his promised mass deportations of millions of undocumented immigrants.

• The U.S. immigration system's backlog will take an estimated four years to resolve at the current pace — which could balloon to 16 years under Trump's deportation plan, according to an Axios analysis.
• Of the 3.7 million pending cases, 1.6 million involve asylum seekers awaiting formal hearings or case decisions.

Background: The Trump-controlled FLRA stripped the NAIJ of its bargaining and union power in 2020 after calling judges "managers" who weren't eligible for union representation.

• The NAIJ challenged the decision in federal court, and won a ruling that said immigration judges were entitled to union representation.

What they're saying: "They need a voice as workers, as immigration judges," said Matthew Biggs, president of the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers, which representing 90,000 public-, private- and federal-sector workers in the U.S. and Canada.

• Biggs says the immigration judges want fair representation and are worried about being overwhelmed even more with a jump in new cases.
• The union says judges typically spend only about 30 minutes on each case because of the pressure to tackle the backlog.

The intrigue: Immigration courts closed 900,000 cases from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024, according to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.

• That was the most cleared cases in a fiscal year, and 235,000 more than the previous year, TRAC reports.

What we're watching: An FLRA decision on the union issue could come in six weeks.

Stephen Miller, the incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy, on Sunday gave new details on the Trump administration's plan for what he called "the largest deportation operation in American history."

Why it matters: Miller made clear during his interview on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" that deportations would be Trump's no.1 priority ahead of issues including making reforms to tax and trade and the debt ceiling.

• President-elect Trump has vowed to crack down on immigration and start mass deportations on Day 1 of his presidency, though the operation would be hard to achieve without major structural overhauls.

What they're saying: Miller said on Fox News that first, incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have "promised that they can get a full funding package for the border, the most significant board of security investment in American history ... to the president's desk in January or early February."

• That would mean a "massive increase" in Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers working on Trump's deportation operation and a "historic increase in border agents," with both getting a pay rise, Miller told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.
• There would be "full funding for ICE beds, full funding for air and marine operations, full funding for all of the barriers and technology that you need to ensure there's never another got-away entering this country," Miller added.

Worth noting: Trump aides have previously said the president-elect would prioritize deporting dangerous criminals — something the federal government already does.

• An Axios review of the most recent immigration court records found that less than .5% of over 1 million cases last year resulted in deportation orders for alleged crimes other than illegal entry into the U.S.

Zoom in: After Trump has signed executive orders to "seal the border shut" and begin deportations, the senators would "move immediately" in the same timeframe "to the comprehensive tax reform package," Miller said.

• "What they're talking about doing is, before government funding expires in March, before the debt ceiling expires in June, just days after he puts his hand on that Bible ..." added Miller before Bartiromo asked if waiting until later in the year to extend tax cuts through a separate reconciliation process could risk it not happening.
• "There's zero chance of that because, as you know, the tax cuts expire this year," Miller replied.
• "And you're not just going to have tax cuts, but you're going to have other fiscal reforms ... going to have energy reforms, maybe additional border reforms. But the very important point in all of this is that, with the current [slim] size of the majority in the House, there isn't a proposal to pass taxes in February," he added. "That's going to take some period of time."
• Representatives for Thune and Graham did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Trump suggests deporting families with mixed immigration status

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more context.

Federal probes into alleged civil rights abuses by a dozen cities' police departments haven't led to any reform agreements during the Biden administration — and are unlikely to do so in Donald Trump's second term.

Why it matters: The investigations by President Biden's Justice Department came in response to allegations of systemic, unconstitutional misconduct by the police departments, such as using excessive force and conducting illegal traffic stops.

• Such probes often lead to court-ordered consent decree agreements, which require police to impose various reforms.
• But Trump suggested during the presidential campaign that he equates such pacts to "defunding the police," or weakening law enforcement.

Zoom in: During Trump's first term, his administration refused to enter into any consent decrees to reform police departments, even after the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police in 2020 put pressure on law enforcement agencies.

• Trump's administration unsuccessfully sought to withdraw from consent decrees negotiated during the Obama administration, but not yet finalized, in Chicago and Baltimore.

Biden's Justice Department launched investigations into these agencies:

• Phoenix Police Department
• Louisville (Ky.) Metro Police Department and Louisville/Jefferson County Metro Government
• Louisiana State Police
• Worcester (Mass.) Police Department
• Minneapolis Police Department
• The City of Lexington (Miss.) and Lexington Police Department
• Rankin County (Miss.) Sheriff's Department
• Mount Vernon (N.Y.) Police Department
• New York (N.Y.) Police Department Special Victims Division
• Oklahoma City Police Department
• Memphis Police Department
• Trenton (N.J.) Police Department

Justice Department officials announced last month it had found that police in Trenton engaged in unconstitutional policing practices, including using excessive force and conducting illegal traffic stops.

• The DOJ said Trenton officers used pepper spray in about 15% of more than 800 physical encounters with the public.
• Two police units known for their heavy-handed tactics were disbanded after the DOJ launched its probe.

Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora told Axios he's unsure whether federal authorities and the city can negotiate a consent decree requiring new procedures before Trump enters office Jan. 20.

What they're saying: Trump's transition team did not respond to a request for comment on the police probes.

• Project 2025, the plan for Trump's second term put together by dozens of Trump allies, calls for Trump's administration to avoid entering into consent decrees or settlements that "bind" law enforcement agencies for "years or decades."
• Kristen Clarke, assistant attorney general in Biden's Justice Department, said that "ensuring lawful, non-discriminatory, transparent, and effective policing is a top priority for the Justice Department. The Justice Department is steadfast in its commitment to ensuring the civil and constitutional rights of all Americans are protected."

Reality check: Some city leaders and public safety experts tell Axios that federal oversight of police departments has had mixed results. In some cases, they've driven up costs while doing little to curb violent crime, they say.

• A consent decree in Oakland, Calif., for example, has been in place for more than two decades.
• The city agreed to several reforms, including improving police misconduct investigations, to resolve a lawsuit brought by more than 100 residents who'd been targeted by a group of police officers known as the "Riders."
• But recently the department was criticized for its responses to an incident involving an alleged hit-and-run involving a high-ranking officer, and another case in which a homicide detective was accused of bribing a witness.
• Lawyers now want the police department placed into receivership, per the Oaklandside.

In Albuquerque, which has spent $40 million on reforms since entering into a consent decree in 2014, the police department's rate of deadly encounters is higher now than it was before the decree, per Searchlight New Mexico.

Yes, but: Police in Ferguson, Mo., are more racially diverse after federal authorities intervened in 2016 following the killing of Michael Brown, an 18-year-old Black man.

• Philadelphia also has had a significant decrease in the number of illegal stop-and-frisks since entering a consent degree 13 years ago, per a monitor's latest report.
• The DOJ doesn't oversee that consent decree, so "the Trump administration cannot make us stop," says Mary Catherine Roper, a civil rights attorney and former ACLU-PA deputy legal director who helped litigate the case.

In Newark, N.J. — where police have been under a consent decree since a federal probe into excessive force and "vast racial disparities" in arrests — an independent monitor recently wrote that Newark police officers used lawful force in 97% of cases after the decree went into effect.

• Larry Hamm, founder of the People's Organization for Progress, which has protested Newark police's brutality for decades, tells Axios that residents fear problems will rear "their ugly head again" if the consent decree is lifted.

An Axios review of a new National Archives portal found just three digitized unsolved cases of lynchings, racial violence and murders of Black Americans, spawning several decades.

The big picture: The Civil Rights Cold Case Records Collection portal is the federal agency's latest attempt to index civil rights violations and provide a subject guide, part of an aim spelled out by law to bring justice to the victims in those cases.

Why it matters: After Reconstruction, the federal government — and many states — rarely prosecuted allegations of civil rights violations and racial violence until the beginning of the Civil Rights Movement.

• The lack of action built decades of distrust, and families seldom saw justice for victims.
• The new portal starts with victims in three cases.

They include:

• Hattie Debardelaben, a 46-year-old farmer, who was killed in 1945 by Deputy Clyde White and federal officers in Alabama during a warrantless search of her home for illegal whiskey;
• Leroy Bradwell, a 26-year-old WWII veteran who went missing in Florida in 1946 after being falsely accused of writing an obscene letter to a white woman; and
• Rev. Samuel Earl Sawyer, Sr., a 39-year-old father of five who was killed by a Georgia state trooper in 1948.

State of play: More case records will be released soon, per the National Archives.

• The existing case inclusions were generated in response to the Civil Rights Cold Case Records Collection Act, signed into law in 2019 by President-elect Trump during his first term.
• The bill passed to bring justice for victims established a review board independent of the FBI to oversee the release of documents about cases.
• Trump didn't nominate members to the board during his first term, but the U.S. Senate approved President Biden's nominees in 2022.

Zoom in: Before the Cold Case Collection Act, information about unsolved cases had to be obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests — a slow process often resulting in significantly redacted documents.

• The federal government has long been criticized for its response to racial injustices and often failed to prosecute cases of lynching, racial terror and mob killings throughout the 20th century.

Case in point: The U.S. Department of Justice opened in September its first-ever probe into the Tulsa Massacre more than a century after it happened in 1921.

• It was one of the deadliest race massacres in the nation's history, decimating a prosperous Black community and economic hub known as "Black Wall Street."

Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke announced the DOJ review under the Emmett Till Unsolved Civil Rights Crime Act.

• That law allows the federal government to investigate civil rights crimes that resulted in death and occurred on or before Dec. 31, 1979.
• "We have no expectation that there are living perpetrators who could be criminally prosecuted by us or by the state," Clarke said at the time.
• However, Clarke said the department will issue a report analyzing the massacre in light of both modern and then-existing civil rights laws.

Don't forget: In 2021, the DOJ formally closed its second investigation into the 1955 death of 14-year-old Chicagoan Emmett Till, who white supremacists tortured and murdered after a white woman claimed Till grabbed and propositioned her during his trip to Mississippi to visit family.

• Witness statements indicated that he whistled at her.
• And although his accuser, Carolyn Bryant Donham reportedly recanted her testimony that Till harassed her, the department closed its probe after finding no verifiable evidence of the report.
• Donham's alleged recantation wasn't properly recorded or documented, the DOJ said.
• Donham died last year at 88, ending any hope by civil rights advocates that anyone connected to the lynching of Till would be brought to justice.

Go deeper: Uncovering the Tulsa Race Massacre after 100 years

A bill that would preserve the Wounded Knee Massacre site is being blocked by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) over his push to get federal recognition for a North Carolina tribe whose legitimacy is questioned by tribal nations.

The big picture: The Wounded Knee Massacre site on Oglala Lakota land in South Dakota is a mourning place for many tribes, and the blocking of a preservation bill could create more animosity toward the Lumbee, who want to circumvent traditional routes for federal recognition.

Catch up quick: Tillis put a hold on the Wounded Knee Massacre legislation last month after he accused certain tribes of not supporting a bill that would give the Lumbee federal recognition.

• He accused Native American tribes of being part of a "casino cartel" led by the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians who want to stop the Lumbee from gaining recognition and possibly opening its own casino.
• "This is not about you. This is about your leaders," Tillis said on the Senate floor Nov. 21 in reference to the Oglala Sioux and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes, who suffered at Wounded Knee.
• "This is about (your leaders') underhanded, unfair treatment of a tribal nation that deserves recognition and that this country needs to atone for over a century of racism and neglect."

State of play: A hold on the Wounded Knee Massacre legislation prevents the consolidation of privately owned and allotted lands around the site of the Oglala Lakota Nation.

• Supporters say the consolidation would allow the Oglala Sioux and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes to preserve it how they see fit.

Zoom out: The U.S. Army in 1890 slaughtered 150 Lakota Indian men, women and children in the last chapter of the U.S. government's long war against Native Americans.

• Since then, the isolated site has become a place of mourning for many Native American tribes as it symbolizes the brutality many faced at the hands of the U.S. government.

The intrigue: Tribal leaders interviewed by Axios said members of Tillis' staff have told them that the Wounded Knee Massacre bill and other tribal legislation will continue to be held unless they support the Lumbee proposal.

• Shawnee Tribal Chief Benjamin Barnes tells Axios it's unfairly tying legislation that has nothing to do with each other. He says tribes have no problem with the Lumbee seeking federal recognition through the proper process.
• "This is not race policing or Indian policing," Barnes says. "If they can prove they have historical ties, then go for it, but to stall the Wounded Knee bill over this unnecessary."
• O.J. Semans, Sr., a member of the Rosebud Sioux and executive director of the Coalition of Large Tribes (COLT), tells Axios the Lumbee's silence over the Wounded Knee hold is telling and scary.

A spokesperson of Tillis did not immediately return an email from Axios.

Context: The Lumbee Tribe has been trying to get federal recognition for years to unlock millions of dollars for Native American services after being denied the ability to apply for federal recognition in 1987.

• The denial was based on the interpretation of a 1956 congressional act that acknowledged the Lumbee but stopped short of granting them federal recognition, per The AP.
• The Department of the Interior reversed that ruling in 2016, allowing the Lumbee Tribe to apply, but the tribe has sought recognition through congressional action since then.
• A tribe can gain federal recognition through the Interior Department after providing evidence of treaties, historical connections to lands or proof of existence before European contact, for example.

Between the lines: The Lumbee, which claims 50,000 members, has significant political influence in the swing state of North Carolina, and both Vice President Harris and President-elect Trump endorsed its push for federal recognition.

In a statement, Lumbee chairman John Lowery told Axios the tribe "will not back down in the face of these assaults and a well-funded lobbying campaign."

• Lowery told the AP that the Interior's application process is "flawed" and overly lengthy and it should be up to Congress to right what he calls a historic wrong.

The other side: Barnes and Semans said giving a tribe federal recognition through congressional action sets a dangerous precedent since any group can gather and create political pressure for something that is sacred only to historic tribal nations.

• "If you're able to see a race of people able to get identified as Native American, I'm telling you, we're gonna have, like, 100 different Cherokee tribes," Semans said.

Go deeper: The Lumbee Tribe's time is now. Maybe.

Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect the Lumbee has 50,000 members, (not 500,000).

Immigrants arrested for homicides accounted for less than 1% of "at-large" arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement over the last six years, an Axios review found.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump has vowed to launch the "largest deportation of criminals in American history" — often focusing on the slaying of college student Laken Riley by an undocumented immigrant — but data shows crimes like homicide and sexual assault feature in only a small fraction of ICE arrests.

By the numbers: An Axios review of data for nearly 180,000 ICE at-large arrests broken down by criminal convictions from October 1, 2017 through Sept. 30, 2023 found:

• The largest numbers concerned immigration-related offenses (16%); driving under the influence (15%); dangerous drugs (15%), assault (9%) and traffic offenses (9%).
• 3% of the crimes were larceny, 1.7% sexual assault and .7% homicide.
• ICE at-large arrests are those made in public settings as opposed to when ICE picks up someone who's already in jail or prison.

Overall, ICE figures released earlier this year said there have been more than 425,000 noncitizen immigrants with criminal convictions in the past 40 years or more.

• About 13,100 — or 3% — were convicted of homicide, while 15,811 (3.7%) were convicted of sexual assault.
• Many are imprisoned in federal, state or local facilities and may enter deportation proceedings after serving their sentences.

Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, reached for comment by Axios, didn't address the disparity in the ICE arrest data and Trump's claims about immigrant crime.

• In a statement, Leavitt said Trump will marshal all resources for "the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history."

Reality check: The federal government has prioritized deporting immigrants with criminal records since the Obama administration, Amy Maldonado, an immigration lawyer in Michigan, tells Axios.

• "What Trump is proposing is nothing new. We've never let murderers and rapists just roam the streets."
• "They're lying. This is just an excuse for mass deportations," Maldonado says.

The big picture: Study after study has indicated that immigrants — those in the U.S. legally or without authorization — commit crimes at lower rates than U.S. citizens.

• There are roughly 24.5 million total noncitizen immigrants in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. About 11 million of them don't have legal status.

President-elect Trump is vowing to launch the "largest deportation of criminals in American history" as part of his plans to remove millions of undocumented immigrants from the U.S.

• What he doesn't say: There aren't that many criminals who could be deported immediately.

Driving the news: Less than 0.5% of the 1.8 million cases in immigration courts during the past fiscal year — involving about 8,400 people — included deportation orders for alleged crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally, an Axios review of government data found.

• The figures don't include more than 400,000 noncitizen immigrants with criminal convictions in the past few decades, many of whom are being held in federal, state or local facilities.
• About 29,000 of those felons have been convicted of homicide or sexual assault.
• All of them would enter the deportation process in immigration courts — but not until after serving their sentences.

The immigration court numbers — along with the mechanics of deportation — suggest that Trump's push for mass deportations of criminals could take some time.

Zoom in: Study after study has indicated that immigrants — those in the U.S. legally or undocumented — commit crimes at lower rates than U.S. citizens.

• Trump and conservatives have elevated individual tragedies such as the slaying of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley to claim that immigrants were driving a crime wave — and to justify a push for mass deportations.
• Trump's claims about migrants and crime were among a series of baseless statements he made during the campaign — remarks that also included riffs on immigrants eating house pets and how immigrants are destroying the "blood of our nation."
• Trump vowed to deport the roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants across the country. His campaign and surrogates have said their initial focus will be on immigrants who have committed crimes.

By the numbers: There are roughly 24.5 million noncitizen immigrants in the U.S., including those here awaiting asylum decisions or otherwise here lawfully, according to the Pew Research Center.

• Immigration courts recorded 1,798,964 new cases from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024, according to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University, reviewed by Axios.
• Just 0.47% of those cases involved possible deportations based on alleged criminal activity.

Zoom in: Early evidence indicates the trend is continuing.

• Immigration courts received 87,620 new cases as of October 2024 in the new fiscal year. Just 640 (0.73%) of those involved potential deportation orders based on alleged criminal activity, TRAC found.

What they're saying: Trump will marshal all resources for "the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history," Trump-Vance transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

• The Trump transition team declined to address the low number of current immigration cases involving immigrants who've committed crimes.
• Trump's incoming border czar, Tom Homan, has told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo that the new administration will "concentrate on the public safety threats and the national security threats first" under a mass deportation plan.
• "We know a record number of people on the terrorist watch list have crossed this border. We know a record number of terrorists have been released in this country," Homan said.

Zoom out: Removing immigrants deemed threats to national security and public safety has been a priority in President Biden's administration.

• Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas issued a memo on Sept. 30, 2021, instructing DHS immigration officials "to prioritize the apprehension and removal of noncitizens considered to be threats to national security, public safety and border security."

Zoom out: U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Office of Field Operations, the agency's largest component, arrested 19,242 noncitizens who have been convicted of crime in the U.S. or abroad in fiscal 2024, the agency said.

• The U.S. Border Patrol recorded 17,048 arrests of noncitizens who have been convicted of crimes in the U.S. or abroad in fiscal 2024.
• Those noncitizens could be green card holders, immigrants with temporary protection, undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers who can appeal or fight arrests.

The intrigue: The number of arrests of noncitizen immigrants with criminal convictions in fiscal 2024 under Biden represented a 114% increase from fiscal 2019, during Trump's last year in office pre-COVID.

• An Axios review of CBP data found that arrests of noncitizen immigrants with criminal convictions on average doubled under Biden from what they'd been under Trump — partly a reflection of the waves of migrants crossing the border during Biden's tenure.

This year's Native American Heritage Month, in November, comes after the Indigenous population in the United States grew to the largest it's been in modern times, with 3.7 million people identifying as Native American or Alaska Native over the last decade, per the U.S. Census.

Through the lens: For this year's commemoration, Axios is exploring Indigenous contributions to art, civil rights and sports amid the growing #StillHere movement

Go deeper: Axios Explains: Thanksgiving's troubled history