Investors reacted swiftly Monday morning to the U.S. losing its last triple-A credit rating, briefing sending the yield on 30-year Treasuries above 5%.

Why it matters: Credit rating downgrades — like Moody's decision Friday to slash the U.S. government to Aa1 — mean the borrower is now viewed as a riskier bet.

• U.S. Treasuries are still widely regarded as a dependable place to park cash, but long-term bond yields Monday nonetheless touched their highest level since November 2023, and last seen before that in 2007.

Zoom out: U.S. debt is now deemed by Moody's to be a risker proposition for investors than debt issued by a dozen countries.

• Those better bets are Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland.

What they're saying: "Globally, the downgrade may dent confidence in U.S. Treasuries, traditionally perceived as a safe-haven asset due to the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency," Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysts wrote today in a special report.

• "While demand for Treasuries is likely to remain strong, in our view, reduced foreign appetite — already evident following President Donald Trump's tariff announcements — could exacerbate fiscal pressures," they wrote.

Yes, but: Most buyers of Treasury bonds aren't doing so based on credit rating firms' assessment, however, Axios' Neil Irwin notes.

Reality check: The U.S. had already lost its perfect rating from S&P in 2011 and from Fitch in 2023.

• Some, like Morningstar chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera, characterized Friday's Moody's downgrade as largely symbolic, with the issues that led to the downgrade "long in coming, well known, and priced into" the U.S. Treasury market.

The impact: The morning's bond selloff tapered off by the afternoon, with yields on 30-year Treasures settling at 4.91%.

• Stocks finished the day largely in the green, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes all closing Monday with small gains.

The big picture: For investors today the downgrade "reinforces that [U.S.] fiscal strain is no longer a distant concern," writes Tom Kozlik, head of public policy and municipal strategy at Hilltop Securities.

• "It is unfolding in real time, with significant implications for investor sentiment and policy discussions."

Count Boeing as a big winner of the Trump administration's trade policy  —despite a sometimes frosty relationship with the president.

Why it matters: It's a decisive turn for a company slammed by business and regulatory disasters caused by quality troubles, legal problems, labor issues and — most recently — trade walls.

Zoom in: In just the last week, the company has picked up big sales deals in the U.K. and the Middle East and avoided a potentially crushing Chinese ban on plane deliveries.

• Boeing scored the biggest aircraft sale in its history in a deal announced yesterday by President Trump.
• Qatar Airways is buying up to 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aircraft, all made in the U.S. with GE Aerospace engines, the White House announced.
• Boeing confirmed the order, saying it includes 130 787 Dreamliners, 30 777-9s and options for 50 additional aircraft.

The intrigue: The president has repeatedly torched Boeing since retaking the White House over its long-delayed program to build two new Air Force One jets — a contract Trump originally signed early in his first term.

• The company now plans to deliver the two new jets in 2027, before Trump leaves office.

State of play: The announcement comes after China reportedly ended a ban on its airlines acquiring Boeing jets after striking a trade deal with the Trump administration, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

• The country had effectively halted imports of American jets and aircraft parts in retaliation for Trump's tariffs.
• Separately, the Saudi Public Investment Fund's AviLease has ordered up to 30 new single-aisle Boeing 737-8 jets, Boeing announced.
• Boeing last week reportedly nailed a deal to sell 30 of its 787 Dreamliners to British Airways parent IAG.

Reality check: There are really only two manufacturers of huge jets — and Qatar Airways has a frosty relationship with the other one, Airbus.

The bottom line: Boeing appears to be getting back on its feet, though it's debatable how much of that is due to Trump's trade policies.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that the plane ID is 787 Dreamliners (not 737 Dreamliners).

You could have made a lot of money by betting against the conventional conclave wisdom.

Why it matters: Prediction markets never saw it coming: the selection of Chicago native Robert Prevost, the first American to ascend to the papacy in history and now Pope Leo XIV.

State of play: The papal odds on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket swung heavily toward Cardinal Pietro Parolin after the white smoke signaled the end of the conclave on its second day.

• The 70-year-old Parolin served as the Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis and had been the favorite all along.
• But it was Prevost who prevailed in a stunning development on the second day of the conclave. His odds hovered in the range of 1% to 2% — or less — in the prediction markets since Pope Francis died.

Context: Parolin was the favorite in the prediction markets since Francis died April 21, but his odds never sustainably exceeded 1 in 3 before Thursday.

• The second favorite was Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.

The intrigue: After white smoke emanated from the Vatican on Thursday, bettors seemed to think the choice was Parolin — possibly under the premise that a speedy choice indicated a consensus pick.

• Parolin's odds to be named as the new pope jumped to nearly 70% soon after the white smoke appeared, up from about 27%–28% Thursday morning.

Go deeper: Meet Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, the first American pope

The simple thought of replacing Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla is not so simple at all.

• It stirs up practically unanswerable questions about who could possibly take his place, how Musk would handle it and how investors would react.

Why it matters: Musk and Tesla's chair on Thursday vehemently denied a Wall Street Journal report saying the EV company's board had launched a search process for a new CEO to potentially replace the world's richest person.

• Tesla has suffered declining sales since Musk became an outspoken ally of President Trump and leader of the federal budget-slashing DOGE.
• Last week Musk pledged to refocus most of his time on Tesla, saying he would take a significant step back from the Department of Government Efficiency.

What they're saying: Picking a replacement for Musk — whose identity as a visionary disruptor has been closely linked to Tesla's brand since the beginning — will be profoundly difficult no matter when that process plays out.

• "I can't think of anybody on the face of the earth or Mars who can replace Elon Musk," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon tells Axios.

The precise circumstances surrounding Musk's eventual departure from the CEO job will greatly influence the nature of the transition.

• If Musk is jettisoned against his will, the board risks upsetting his loyal followers — some of them customers and many of them investors.
• If he goes willingly and gives his blessing to his successor, it could ease the transition.

Yes, but: Any prospective replacement will be operating in Musk's shadow — whether via his public commentary on X, his continued employment with the company in a different role or his stake as its largest investor.

• "If you don't want to tank the company," said Gordon, "you bring in somebody who's going to make good on Musk's vision."

The problem for Tesla is that some CEOs loom so large that the company never really escapes their shadow.

• At Apple, for example, CEO John Sculley elbowed out founder Steve Jobs, but Jobs returned years later to save the company after a series of failed CEOs nearly wrecked it.
• Musk's "Bigfoot shadow is going to be there the way Steve Jobs' shadow was there at Apple," said Gordon, who has advised numerous companies on CEO transitions.

Which is why any potential successor would almost surely make an assortment of demands upon taking the job, possibly including the addition of independent directors to the board and contractual assurances of massive severance if it doesn't work out, Gordon said.

• "I think there are very few attractive candidates who will return a phone call from a headhunter for that job, but there could be somebody who says I will do it under the following conditions," he said.

Who we're watching: Any discussion of who might be a good fit for the role is largely speculation at this point, but several names typically pop up as Tesla observers discuss the someday transition:

• Tom Zhu: Musk last year sent the longtime Tesla executive to China to lead the company's business there. He stays largely out of the spotlight but he's essential to Tesla's business.
• JB Straubel: The former Tesla chief technology officer and Musk confidante, who is currently CEO of battery recycling startup Redwood Materials, still serves on Tesla board.
• John Krafcik: The former CEO of Google driverless car startup Waymo also previously served as CEO of Hyundai Motor America. He's currently on the board of Tesla EV competitor Rivian.
• Gwynne Shotwell: Considered a superstar operator with an uncanny ability to handle life with Musk looking over your shoulder, she is the president of Musk's rocket company SpaceX. But if she shifted to Tesla, it's unclear who would move into her role at SpaceX.
• Someone from the AI sector: Given how much Musk says Tesla's future depends on big AI bets like self-driving cars and humanoid robots, the company could seek out someone with little connection to the auto industry for its next leader.

Elon Musk and Tesla's chair early on Thursday vehemently denied a Wall Street Journal report saying the EV company's board had launched a search process for a new CEO to potentially replace the world's richest person.

Why it matters: Tesla has suffered declining sales since Musk became an outspoken ally of President Trump and leader of the budget-slashing DOGE.

• Musk pledged last week to refocus most of his time on Tesla, saying he would take a significant step back from DOGE.

Driving the news: Tesla's board recently "reached out to several executive search firms to work on a formal process for finding Tesla's next chief executive," WSJ reported.

• The board "narrowed its focus to a major search firm," the paper said, though the status of the search was unknown and it was unclear whether Musk knew about it.
• "Board members told him he needed to spend more time on Tesla" and say so publicly, WSJ reported, citing people familiar with the meeting. Musk reportedly didn't argue with the board.

What they're saying: Tesla chair Robyn Denholm in a statement posted to the firm's X account said the WSJ's Wednesday night report had "erroneously" claimed the board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search.

• "This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published)," Denholm said.
• "The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead," she added.
• Musk said it's "an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS" that WSJ "would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors!"
• A WSJ spokesperson said: "We stand by our reporting. Tesla was given the opportunity to provide a statement before publication, which they did not do."

Between the lines: Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who had called for Musk to refocus on Tesla, described the board's action as a "warning shot."

• "While this was a very tense situation, we believe Musk clearly did the right thing and we believe Musk will remain CEO for at least five years at Tesla and we would be surprised if the Board was still heading down this search path as of today," Ives wrote late Wednesday in a research note.

Zoom in: The Tesla board and Denholm had previously been largely silent since Musk started becoming more political.

• The board has come under scrutiny over the years from critics who say it hasn't provided adequate oversight of Musk. In March, Ives said the board needed to "step up" and deal with the brand's "crisis."
• Tesla shares have lost about a third of their value since Trump took office and Musk became the face of his administration's efforts to overhaul the government.
• That said, Musk told investors last week that its future is bright. "I encourage people to look beyond the bumps and potholes of the road immediately ahead of us," he said.

Threat level: The public has been souring on Musk in recent months.

• 33% of U.S. adults had a "very or somewhat favorable" opinion about him in an April survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, compared with 41% in December.
• 65% said he has too much influence on the federal government.

Musk and Denholm did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment Wednesday night.

• And Musk eliminated Tesla's public relations team several years ago.
• Ives said the "situation with Musk at DOGE was reaching a breaking point, but we believe that cooler heads have now prevailed and that the Board is now NOT actively looking to replace Musk as CEO and this code red situation is now in the rearview."

💭 Our thought bubble: Even if the board could find a suitable replacement for Musk, loyal investors might revolt — and it's hard to envision Musk relinquishing control, even if he doesn't have the title of CEO.

Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.

Editor's note: This article was updated with a statement from the Wall Street Journal.

President Trump appeared to acknowledge Wednesday that toy shortages are possible as his tariff hikes ripple through the economy.

Why it matters: American retailers are growing worried that the president's trade war and increased volatility will lead to empty shelves, higher prices and store closures as Chinese imports screech to a halt.

• The CEOs of Walmart, Target and Home Depot privately warned him last week about the likelihood of product shortages and price spikes.

Driving the news: "Somebody said, 'oh, the shelves are gonna be open,'" Trump told reporters Wednesday. "Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more."

The big picture: His comments came amid growing concern that that the 2025 holiday shopping season will be significantly disrupted.

• Toy Association CEO Greg Ahearn told the New York Times this week that the industry is facing "a frozen supply chain that is putting Christmas at risk."
• "If we don't start production soon, there's a high probability of a toy shortage this holiday season," Ahearn said.

Zoom out: Trump argues that higher tariffs will force manufacturers to produce more goods in the U.S., creating jobs and tax revenue. But critics say it will lead to higher prices and hurt American exporters.

Reality check: "There will be a Christmas, and people will celebrate Christmas, and they will buy items, and we will sell them those items," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told reporters earlier this month.

• "If there are higher price points, and you want to rethink its quantity, maybe that makes sense," McMillon said.

More from Axios:

• Walmart won't break out tariff costs and pledges low prices
• What to know about Amazon Haul, the Temu and Shein competitor
• Retail wipeout: Trump tariffs stoke fears of shortages and price hikes

Walmart on Tuesday rejected the idea that it would apply an itemized surcharge to purchases to account for President Trump's increased tariffs.

Why it matters: A report Tuesday that Walmart rival Amazon was poised to add a tariff fee to sales in the U.S. triggered outrage in the White House, which condemned it as a "hostile and political act."

• An Amazon spokesperson later clarified that its Amazon Haul budget shopping site had "considered the idea" but that "this was never approved and is not going to happen."

Between the lines: Walmart, the world's largest retailer, does "not itemize what goes into the cost of goods on our website," a company spokesperson told Axios.

• Walmart is "working hard to keep prices as low on as many products as possible" despite uncertainty over President Trump's aggressive tariffs, the spokesperson said.

The big picture: Walmart executives have said that while the company is not immune from tariffs they hope to keep prices low.

• More than two-thirds of products sold in Walmart U.S. stores are "made, grown or assembled" in the country, company CFO John David Rainey said at the company's investment community meeting earlier this month.
• "The third that we import comes from all over the world, but China and Mexico are the most significant," Rainey said.

What they're saying: "We are working with our suppliers and sellers to keep prices simple for our customers who trust us to do the hard work on their behalf," the Walmart spokesperson told Axios Tuesday.

More from Axios:

• What to know about Amazon Haul, the Temu and Shein competitor
• Exclusive: Walmart expands support for American-made products
• How JCPenney plans to take "fashion inclusivity" to next level
• Retail wipeout: Trump tariffs stoke fears of shortages and price hikes

American retailers are growing worried that President Trump's trade war and increased volatility will lead to empty shelves, higher prices and store closures as Chinese imports screech to a halt.

Why it matters: Many retailers stocked up on inventory in the first months of 2025, realizing that a storm was coming — but their inventories are poised to dwindle quickly.

• The National Retail Federation expects U.S. imports to plunge by at least 20% in the second half of 2025 if increased tariffs remain in place.
• "Shortages are a real possibility," Coresight Research analyst John Harmon tells Axios.

The big picture: Trump's trade war has sent the nation's retailers into scramble mode.

• The CEOs of three of the nation's biggest retailers — Walmart, Target and Home Depot — privately warned Trump in a meeting Monday that his trade policy could trigger massive product shortages and price spikes.
• The largest companies are reportedly pressuring suppliers to absorb extra costs. "We have decades of experience" with buyers, plus longstanding supplier relationships, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told reporters earlier this month.
• Smaller retailers have fewer options: "We're not eager to raise prices," Skechers USA CFO John Vandemore said Thursday. "We would not be doing so were it not for" the tariffs.
• Businesses that were already teetering are in serious trouble: "If they can't get goods, or their consumers revolt and don't want to pay the tariffs and their sales plummet, it seriously could push some retailers over the edge," Harmon said.

What we're watching: How fears of shortages affect consumer behavior. Several sectors have shown signs of people stocking up on products in anticipation of price increases.

• "Starting in a couple of weeks, we are just going to start running out of stuff, and if the administration waits to resolve the problem until we have shortages and hoarding, that is just too late," Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, told NBC News.
• The White House did not comment.

Follow the money: With higher duties and fewer supplies, prices are set to spike.

• A slew of companies have warned of higher prices or have already increased them, including Procter & Gamble, Best Buy, Unilever, Ford, Shein, Temu, AutoZone and Hermès.
• The Halloween and Costume Association warned that tariffs are threatening to "wipe out Halloween and severely disrupt Christmas unless urgent action is taken."
• "Our members are reporting a wave of order cancellations, and it's creating serious concern about whether shelves will be stocked in time for Halloween," Michele Boylstein, the association's executive director, told Axios.

Threat level: It's only April, but back-to-school season is already at risk, Coresight's Harmon said.

• Retailers will look to alternatives for product sourcing to avoid the steepest duties but "it's not like you can flip a switch and pivot to another supplier," Harmon said.

Tesla acknowledged Tuesday that "political sentiment" may be undermining the company's financial performance and that tariffs are poised to do the same.

Why it matters: Tesla CEO Elon Musk — the world's richest person — has become a close ally and outspoken adviser to President Trump, unleashing a backlash on the company.

The automaker fell well short of expectations on earnings and sales in the first quarter amid growing signs that some customers are recoiling from the brand.

• First-quarter revenue totaled $19.3 billion, down 9% from a year earlier and short of S&P Capital IQ expectations of $21.3 billion.
• Net income was $409 million, down 71%.

Zoom in: "Uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers," the company said in an earnings presentation.

• "This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term."

The intrigue: Soon after the earnings presentation was released, Musk admitted on the company's conference call that Tesla was facing "blowback" from his Trump ties and said he'd be taking a significant step back from DOGE, likely starting in May.

• The comments addressed investor hopes coming into the day that the CEO would relinquish his role in Washington and refocus his efforts on Tesla.

What they're saying: "This was well communicated by Musk on this call in our view…needed to hear this tone and direction," Wedbush Securities analyst and longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote on X.

• Ives had warned that Musk could do even worse damage to the Tesla brand by staying with DOGE longer.

Signs of the Tesla backlash are seen primarily in Tesla's automotive revenue, which was down 20% to $14 billion in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier.

• The company's generation and storage revenue rose 67% to $2.73 billion and services and other revenue increased 15% to $2.64 billion.

On tariffs, Tesla said its energy storage business would be impacted harder than its automotive business. Musk said he had voiced his belief in free trade directly to Trump but said he respected the president's decision to go in a different direction.

• "We are taking actions to stabilize the business in the medium to long-term and focus on maintaining its health," Tesla said in the presentation without providing specifics.

The big question: Will Tesla face an international backlash from China as Trump's trade war continues?

• Musk had good things to say about China on the company's earnings call. "I have a lot of respect for China. I think China's amazing actually," he said.

What we're watching: Tesla's stock has always been tied closely to the company's future ambitions.

• Musk said Tesla is on track to launch a robotaxi business in Austin, Texas, within months.
• He said the company would have "millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously" by the second half of 2026.

The impact: Tesla shares jumped in after-hours trading after Musk said he was taking a step back from DOGE.

• The stock was up 5.3% to $250.53 at 7:11pm.

Go deeper: Elon Musk says he's taking a step back from DOGE after Tesla "blowback"

Elon Musk said Tuesday that he will take a major step back from his work as the leader of the Department of Government Efficiency.

Why it matters: The Tesla CEO has become a close and outspoken ally of President Trump, but his government-slashing work via DOGE has sparked a damaging backlash on Tesla.

The big picture: Musk said on Tesla's earnings call that "my time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly" likely starting in May, declaring the effort "mostly done."

• "I'll have to continue doing it for I think the remainder of the President's term just to make sure the waste and fraud that we stopped does not come roaring back, which it will do if it has the chance," Musk said.
• "I think I'll continue to spend a day or two per week on government matters for as long as the President would like me to do so and as long as it would be useful," he added.

Musk also acknowledged "some blowback" on Tesla due to his Trump ties, saying there's been "a few bumps in the road," but said the company's future is still bright.

• "I encourage people to look beyond the bumps and potholes of the road immediately ahead of us," he said. "Lift your gaze to the bright shining citadel on the hill — I don't know, some Reagan-esque imagery — and that's where we're headed."

He also claimed, without evidence, that Tesla protesters are "receiving fraudulent money" from the government: "That is the real reason for the protests," he said.

The intrigue: His comments came after Tesla acknowledged, for the first time, that the backlash might be hurting the company's financial performance.

• Tesla's first-quarter revenue totaled $19.3 billion, down 9% from a year earlier and short of S&P Capital IQ expectations of $21.3 billion.

Tesla also said that President Trump's tariffs would hurt the company. Musk disclosed on the earnings call that he had voiced his opinion on tariffs directly to the president.

• "I'm an advocate of predictable tariff structures and generally I'm an advocate for free trade and lower tariffs," he said.
• He said he's "hopeful" that Trump will "perhaps weigh my advice differently in the future" but said he respects the president's right to do what he wants.

Go deeper: Elon Musk's Tesla admits "political sentiment" may hurt the company

Editor's note: This article was updated with additional comments from Tesla's earning's call.

Temu and Shein plan to raise prices as they grapple with President Trump's move to close a trade loophole on cheap Chinese goods.

Why it matters: Imported shipments valued at less than $800 had enjoyed the "de minimis" exemption from U.S. tariffs, enabling foreign online retailers like Temu and Shein to sell super-cheap items to American consumers.

• But Trump recently moved to close that loophole and increase tariffs on small shipments.

Driving the news: Temu and Shein separately told customers in similar messages that they'll each be hiking prices beginning April 25 "due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs."

• "We've stocked up and stand ready to make sure your orders arrive smoothly during this time," Temu said.
• "Our team is working hard to improve your shopping experience and stay true to our mission: making fashion accessible for everyone," Shein said.

The big picture: Critics of the de minimis exemption say it has bludgeoned U.S. businesses, such as fashion retailer Forever 21, which recently began liquidating its U.S. stores after partly blaming the rise of Shein and Temu for its downfall.

• Supporters say that U.S. consumers will suffer from higher prices with the elimination of tariff-free shipments.

Big Tech is doing a delicate dance as it attempts to sidestep the harshest aspects of President Trump's trade war.

Why it matters: The U.S. tech sector is heavily reliant on cheap imports of smartphones, other consumer electronics and AI chips.

Driving the news: Nvidia Monday committed to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. AI infrastructure, including two new factories to build supercomputers, via several partnerships.

• This follows Apple's announcement less than two months ago that it would invest $500 billion of its own in the U.S.

The big picture: Though analysts debate whether recent moves were already in the pipeline, the announcements could help the companies avoid the worst impacts from Trump's tariffs.

Case in point: Trump claimed credit for today's Nvidia investment.

• "The reason they did it was because of the election on Nov. 5 and because of a thing called tariffs," he told reporters today.
• He did the same back in February following Apple's announcement. And this weekend Apple appeared to secure an exemption for smartphones and laptops from Trump's 125% tariffs on Chinese products. (The administration clarified that the relief was temporary, though analysts say the reprieve will probably culminate in lower duties.)

Between the lines: Effort seems to matter. Monday, from the Oval Office, Trump signaled to reporters that he was considering a break in tariffs for auto companies that were committing to supply chain changes. "They need a little bit of time because they're going to make [parts] here, but they need a little bit of time. So I'm talking about things like that."

State of play

The U.S. gets about 81% of its smartphones and 66% of its laptops from China, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

• But it doesn't get any chips from China. Those come largely from Taiwan.
• The 20 product types that are temporarily exempt from the reciprocal tariffs account for about 23% of total U.S. imports from China, 64% of goods from Taiwan, 44% of those from Malaysia and 30% of shipments from Vietnam and Thailand, according to Capital Economics.

What we're watching: What will the new tariff rate be for electronics and chips once the dust settles?

• "Overall, we expect the 1-2 month comment period to provide room for negotiations that can hopefully reduce the tariff burden," Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya says.

Reality check: The Trump administration hasn't fully acquiesced to the tech sector, as evidenced by today's launch of an antitrust trial that could force Meta to sell Instagram.

• Unless Trump tells the FTC to shut the whole trial down, Mark Zuckerberg's recent overtures to the White House may not do the company any good here, Axios Pro's Ashley Gold writes.

The bottom line: The trade picture is improving for the tech world.

UAW workers are poised to stomach thousands of dollars in reduced payments because of President Trump's auto tariffs, according to new estimates.

Why it matters: The left-leaning union is supporting the Republican's auto tariffs, saying free trade hurts American manufacturing and arguing that the automakers can afford to absorb the financial blow.

Between the lines: The average hourly UAW-represented worker for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis will get a profit-sharing check reduction of anywhere from $1,000 to more than $5,000, according to Anderson Economic Group.

• "For some automakers, with Stellantis being the most vulnerable at the current time, the effects of a prolonged tariff war could lead to operating losses that cause payouts to go to zero," the Michigan-based firm estimates in a new report.

How it works: UAW autoworkers get annual profit-sharing checks based on the North American profits of their employers.

• That's particularly problematic for union members because Trump's tariffs are expected to hit North American profits hard.
• Trump this week paused his reciprocal tariffs, except on China, but maintained his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

Zoom in: Anderson Economic Group based its estimate on a projection of lower sales and higher costs for the automakers, collectively leading to a reduction of more than $5 billion in adjusted earnings in 2025.

• The economists projected a 1-million unit decline in annual new vehicle sales in the U.S. — a figure that includes non-UAW-represented automakers.
• The group conducted the analysis at the request of the Detroit Free Press, spokesperson Lisa Wootton Booth said.
• "Some Wall Street analysts who reviewed Anderson's math also agreed with it, with some saying it's likely conservative," the Free Press reported.

The other side: The UAW — which did not immediately respond to a request for comment — has argued that its workers and the union movement will win in the long run from increased tariffs.

• "These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a recent statement.

By the numbers: This year's profit-sharing checks for UAW-represented workers, based on 2024 earnings, were:

• $14,500 at GM.
• $10,208 at Ford.
• $3,780 at Stellantis.

Stocks plunged Thursday, erasing a big chunk of Wednesday's market rebound as traders digested the remaining threats from President Trump's tariff frenzy.

Why it matters: As escalating trade war with China has taken center stage.

By the numbers: Red ink was everywhere as of about 3 p.m., even though stocks had rebounded well off session lows:

• The Dow was down 825 points, or 2%, to 39,787.
• The S&P 500 index was off 2.8% to 5,306 after Wednesday posting the third largest single-day percentage increase since 1939.
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 3.6% to 16,513.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 4% to 1,837.

The intrigue: Just about the only index on the rise was the Vix — the volatility index — which rises when volatility is increasing.

• It was up 23% Thursday afternoon.

The big picture: Investors' immediate hopes following Trump's reciprocal tariff pause Wednesday have proved short-lived, giving way to fears of a fracturing global economy from the tariffs that remain in place.

• "While the acute near-term risk of a recessionary feedback loop has been averted, the chronic problem of policy volatility and related uncertainties persists," according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Investors are spooked that the Trump administration has "arguably shown a greater tolerance for causing a recession than many might have thought," writes Thomas Mathews, head of markets, Asia Pacific, at Capital Economics.

The bottom line: The tariffs pause did not extinguish the market's volatility.

The Trump administration, which already closed a trade loophole that allowed cheap goods from China to avoid tariffs, is now tripling the planned levy.

Why it matters: Packages valued at less than $800 have enjoyed the "de minimis" exemption from added duties, which has enabled foreign online retailers like Temu and Shein to sell super-cheap items to American consumers.

Follow the money: Trump las week signed an executive order ending the loophole on shipments from China beginning May 2.

• The president had briefly suspended the duty loophole in the early days of his second term, before restoring the exemption while the Commerce Department put together a plan to "fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue."
• The Commerce Department has since declared that "adequate systems are in place to collect tariff revenue" on low-value international shipments.

Zoom in: Applicable duties will be attached to shipments under $800 that are sent from China to the U.S. outside of the international postal system, according to the White House.

• Shipments under $800 that are sent through the international postal network were originally to be "subject to a duty rate of either 30% of their value or $25 per item (increasing to $50 per item after June 1, 2025)."
• But the White House tripled those levies on Tuesday — 90% of their value, or $75 (rising to $150 after June 1), citing the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China's government.

Threat level: Critics of the de minimis exemption say it has bludgeoned U.S. businesses, such as fashion retailer Forever 21, which recently began liquidating its U.S. stores after partly blaming the rise of Shein and Temu for its downfall.

• "The ability for non-U.S. retailers to sell their products at drastically lower prices to U.S. consumers has significantly impacted the Company's ability to retain its traditional core customer base," Forever 21 co-chief restructuring officer Stephen Coulombe said in a court filing.

The other side: Free market think tank Cato Institute argued that eliminating the de minimis exemption means "effectively raising taxes on American consumers and dramatically increasing shipping times."

• Representatives from Temu and Shein have not previously responded to Axios requests for comment on the de minimis issue.

Go deeper: Trump's world-changing tariffs go into effect

The Trump administration is moving forward with a plan to close a trade loophole that previously allowed cheap goods from China to avoid tariffs.

Why it matters: Packages valued at less than $800 have enjoyed the "de minimis" exemption from added duties, which has enabled foreign online retailers like Temu and Shein to sell super cheap items to American consumers.

Follow the money: Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order ending the loophole on shipments from China beginning May 2.

• The president had briefly suspended the duty loophole in the early days of his second term before restoring the exemption while the Commerce Department put together a plan to "fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue."
• The Commerce Department has since declared that "adequate systems are in place to collect tariff revenue" on low-value international shipments, the White House said Wednesday.

Zoom in: Applicable duties will be attached to shipments under $800 that are sent from China to the U.S. outside of the international postal system, according to the White House.

• Shipments under $800 that are sent through the international postal network will be "subject to a duty rate of either 30% of their value or $25 per item (increasing to $50 per item after June 1, 2025)."

Threat level: Critics of the de minimis exemption say it has bludgeoned American businesses, such as fashion retailer Forever 21, which recently began liquidating its U.S. stores after partly blaming the rise of Shein and Temu for its downfall.

• "The ability for non-U.S. retailers to sell their products at drastically lower prices to U.S. consumers has significantly impacted the Company's ability to retain its traditional core customer base," Forever 21 co-chief restructuring officer Stephen Coulombe said in a court filing.

The other side: Free market think tank Cato Institute argued that eliminating the de minimis exemption means "effectively raising taxes on American consumers and dramatically increasing shipping times."

• Representatives from Temu and Shein did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

President Trump's increased tariffs on imported vehicles will hit foreign automakers the hardest, though domestic automakers General Motors and Ford will also face a significant impact.

Why it matters: Experts expect automakers to raise prices to make up for at least part of the cost.

• The exact percentage increase will depend on each automaker's willingness to absorb tariffs, but analysts believe the average new vehicle price will increase by several thousand dollars.

Between the lines: Volvo (13%), Mazda (19%) and Volkswagen (21%) make the lowest share of their U.S.-sold vehicles in this country, according to Wards Automotive and Barclays research.

• Hyundai-Kia (33%), Mercedes (43%), BMW (48%) and Toyota (48%) also make less than half of their U.S.-sold vehicles here.
• Examples of notable 2025 models that are imported to the U.S. include the Ford Maverick pickup, the Chevrolet Blazer crossover, the Hyundai Venue crossover, the Nissan Sentra compact car, the Porsche 911 sports car and the Toyota Prius hybrid, according to the Department of Transportation.

The big picture: About 45% of U.S.-sold vehicles are imported, with the largest percentage coming from Mexico and Canada.

• Every 2025 model-year vehicle gets at least 20% of its content from countries other than the U.S. and Canada, according to DOT's American Automobile Labeling Act data.

Tesla chair Robyn Denholm is maintaining radio silence about the corrosive effect of Elon Musk's political activities on the company's electric vehicle sales.

Why it matters: Denholm's arrival at Tesla in 2018 was seen as a potential stabilizing moment after Musk's tumultuous tussle with U.S. securities regulators.

The big picture: In contrast to Musk, Denholm largely shuns the spotlight and isn't outwardly political.

• She hasn't posted on X in more than a year and rarely gives interviews.

Driving the news: Faced with questions at a conference in Australia Tuesday about whether "she was concerned about Musk's apparent right-wing allegiances, or his opposition to diversity and inclusion initiatives," Denholm "said nothing," Bloomberg reported.

• "Asked if she had a message for Tesla shareholders, she didn't respond," the newswire added.
• Also, "a woman accompanying Denholm as she entered the conference venue said they wouldn't comment or respond to any questions."

The intrigue: Denholm has been selling Tesla stock in heaps recently.

• She's sold more than $117 million in shares over the last three months in a pre-approved trading arrangement, Fortune reported in early March.

What they're saying: Denholm and Tesla did not respond to Axios requests for comment.

Flashback: Denholm was appointed chair of Tesla in 2018 after Musk agreed to relinquish the post in a Securities and Exchange Commission settlement over his claim that the then-struggling company had secured funding to go private.

• Since then she has publicly supported Musk on range of issues, from his use of social media in 2019 to lobbying shareholders to approve the CEO's $56 billion pay package last year.

State of play: During her tenure, the company's valuation has skyrocketed.

• But Tesla sales have plunged in 2025 in certain markets in a blowback to Musk's role in President Trump's administration.
• The company's sales fell 49% in Europe in the first two months of 2025, compared with a year earlier, AP reported Tuesday.

DoorDash announced Thursday it's adding Klarna's buy-now-pay-later payment options into the delivery app.

Why it matters: Enjoying a sandwich today and paying for it some other time just got a lot easier, exactly the kind of decision BNPL watchdogs fear can saddle consumers with "phantom debt."

Zoom in: Klarna will provide multiple payment options in DoorDash, including:

• Pay immediately.
• "Pay in 4," which allows customers to pay in four equal interest-free installments.
• "Pay Later," which allows them to defer payments until what Klarna calls "a more convenient time."

State of play: DoorDash rival GrubHub was already offering Klarna payment services.

• But DoorDash is the market leader in restaurant delivery services, commanding nearly 63% of the market, according to Earnest Analytics, making its move into BNPL a seismic moment for the payment option.
• In addition to food, DoorDash also offers delivery from a wide variety of other retailers.

What they're saying: "By offering smarter, more flexible payment solutions for groceries, takeout, and retail essentials, we're making convenience even more accessible for millions of Americans," Klarna chief commercial officer David Sykes said in a statement.

• A Klarna spokesperson said the company "conduct(s) rigorous eligibility checks before approving a purchase" and "we restrict further use of our services if a payment is missed."
• "This approach helps prevent debt from accumulating, the spokesperson said. Klarna claims 99% of its lending is repaid, with losses well below the credit card industry standard.

The intrigue: The announcement comes as Klarna is barreling toward an IPO in pursuit of a $15 billion valuation.

• The company says it has 93 million active consumers and works with over 675,000 merchants in 26 countries.

💭 Our thought bubble via Axios Pro: Fintech Deals co-author Ryan Lawler: This deal is less about adding a buy-now-pay-later offering to DoorDash customers, and more about Klarna pitching itself as the default payment platform for everyday spending categories.

Editor's note: This report was updated to include comment from Klarna.

Americans are snacking less — and that's a problem for the packaged food industry.

Why it matters: After years of inflation, consumers are recoiling, fed up with food price increases and suddenly immersed in economic uncertainty.

Driving the news: General Mills on Wednesday became the latest food giant to sound the alarm about what CEO Jeff Harmening called a "slowdown in snacking."

• The company's net sales fell 5% in its latest quarter, with U.S. snacks sales down "mid-single digits."
• "Our view is that a lot of that has to do with consumer confidence," Harmening said.

State of play: Other signs of a snacking slowdown:

• J.M. Smucker's sales of sweet baked snacks fell 7% in the company's most recent quarter to $278.6 million.
• Campbell's Company CEO Mick Beekhuizen noted "softness in some of our snacking categories" earlier this month, as organic net sales declined by 3% in its most recent quarter.
• Sales fell 4.3% for U.S. convenience stores in the year ended Feb. 23, according to market-research firm Circana cited by WSJ.

What we're watching: Product innovation and price cuts are possible as companies look to reenergize sales, CFRA Research analyst Arun Sundaram tells Axios.

• "We're in this limbo period where volumes are still soft and price increases aren't benefiting the top line anymore," he says.

Caveat: It's not just snacks that are suffering. Two major discount retailers sounded the alarm recently of a broader pullback among lower-income consumers.

• "Many of our customers report that [they] only have enough money for basic essentials, with some noting that they have had to sacrifice even on the necessities," Dollar General CEO Todd J. Vasos said last week on an earnings call.
• Walmart has seen a similar trend. "You can see that the money runs out before the month is gone," CEO Doug McMillon told the Economic Club of Chicago two weeks ago.

The intrigue: Is the rising use of weight-loss drugs causing people to snack less?

• Maybe a smidge, but not in meaningful amounts, most execs say.
• Harmening noted on an earnings call that General Mills even experienced a decline in sales of dog snacks — "and to my knowledge, there is not GLP-1s for dog treats."

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: You know the situation is serious when we're buying fewer snacks for our four-legged friends.