• A cease-fire deal aims to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict after nearly 14 months of fighting.
• The US and France will play a role in monitoring for potential violations of the deal.
• Regional experts say the US role in monitoring creates complications and challenges.

A cease-fire agreement that aims to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, marks a hopeful diplomatic moment after nearly 14 months of conflict.

However, regional security experts say a provision bringing the US — as well as France — on board to monitor potential violations could complicate matters.

During the coming weeks, the cease-fire deal requires a halt to hostilities, as well as Hezbollah fighters retreating from the Israeli border and Israeli military forces on the ground in Lebanon withdrawing.

Despite these provisions, "the underlying challenges are enormous," said Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, adding that the outcome largely depends "on the will of the combatants."

Gerges said that the inclusion of the US in the cease-fire monitoring process "complicates" matters.

US troops will not be deployed in the area, but the US and France will join a pre-existing mechanism between United Nations peacekeeping forces and the Lebanese and Israeli armies, known as the tripartite mechanism.

The US will chair the group.

An uncertain neutrality

Gerges expressed doubts about how neutral the US would be in the process, pointing to Washington's track record of supporting Israel.

If the US proclaims a Hezbollah violation, Israel has assurances from the US that it can respond. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed this in a statement, saying: "If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack."

However, Gerges said he thinks it is highly unlikely the reverse — the US declaring an Israeli violation — would happen.

As such, Hezbollah likely views the inclusion of the US in the monitoring process with suspicion, he said, adding that he thinks Hezbollah believes that "the US will do Israel's bidding."

Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told BI that, in his opinion, the US is absolutely not neutral. "They are, in a sense, representing Israel, so that's why Israel trusts them."

Salem added that if Hezbollah is really going to implement its part of the agreement, then America's role is not going to be that difficult or controversial.

"The challenge would be, for the Americans, is if Hezbollah is not implementing the agreement," he said. "Then, Americans are not going to fix it. Americans are not going to send troops to fight over it."

"Then the whole thing will collapse right away and Israel will resume the war," he said.

Hassan Fadlallah, an MP in Lebanon and senior official for Hezbollah, said Tuesday that the group reserves the right to defend itself should Israel attack, according to The Guardian.

More robust than in the past

Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said in an email to BI that the enforcement mechanism appears to be "more robust" than past efforts, but there is a "high level of risk attached to the implementation of the cease-fire."

"This is now when the hard work begins to ensure that violations are not committed by either party," she said.

However, Ozcelik continued, "The question is how committed the US-led effort will be to police the agreement, to remain steadfast in its own role to ensure enforcement."

Shortly after Hamas' terror attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began attacking Israel in solidarity.

Tensions continued to escalate in the following months, with Israel eventually targeting and killing Hezbollah's senior leadership and launching a ground invasion into Lebanon.

Since October 2023, Israel says about 60,000 of its residents have been displaced by Hezbollah's rocket attacks, while Lebanon says more than one million of its residents have had to leave their homes, and thousands have died.

The cease-fire agreement will not stop the fighting in Gaza, though President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that the US will make "another push" to broker a deal there.

• Israel agreed on a cease-fire deal aimed at ending 14 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
• "Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump," said Florida Rep. Mike Waltz.
• `The White House fears Trump will take credit for bringing an end to the Gaza war, a report said.

Donald Trump's team has claimed credit for the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect in Lebanon on Wednesday morning.

The agreement, aimed at ending nearly 14 months of fighting, was described by President Joe Biden as "designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Under the terms of the deal, Israel's military will withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period while Hezbollah moves its forces north and the Lebanese army deploys to the south.

Mike Waltz, the President-elect's national security advisor, posted on X that "everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump."

Waltz continued by saying that Trump's victory sent a "clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won't be tolerated."

According to the Associated Press, a senior Biden administration official said that Trump's team was kept informed about negotiations as they unfolded.

The official added that the incoming Trump team was not directly involved in the talks.

Richard Goldberg, an advisor at the Washington group Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told the AP that Iran —which would have had to give its approval to Hezbollah for the deal — factored Trump's presidency into the agreement.

"There's zero doubt that Iran is pulling back to regroup ahead of Trump coming into office," said Goldberg. "It's a combination of Israeli military success and Trump's election — the ayatollah has no clothes and he knows we know."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu' said in a televised speech that Israel would attack Hezbollah if it broke the terms of the cease-fire or gave any inkling of preparing to attack again.

With only 54 days in office, Biden now hopes to redouble his efforts for a cease-fire in Gaza.

"They, too, deserve an end to the fighting and displacement," he said. "The people of Gaza have been through hell. Their world has been absolutely shattered. Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much."

However, with time running out, there is fear in the White House that it will be Trump who will take credit for bringing an end to the war, according to The Times.

The World Bank Group estimates that the total damages incurred due to the war in Lebanon are around $8.5 billion, of which $5.1 billion are economic losses.

"President Trump has been crystal clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is steadfast. Hezbollah understands this is their best opportunity to get a more favorable deal done," a representative for the Trump-Vance transition team told Business Insider.

"Iran-backed proxies clearly see the clock ticking as President Trump will soon return to the White House with a strong national security team, including Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Pete Hegseth, with US intelligence led by Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe. President Trump rightfully predicted that actors in the region would make moves toward peace because of his historic victory — and that's exactly what we are seeing take place."

Representatives for Biden did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• Israel has agreed on a cease-fire deal aimed at ending nearly 14 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
• The cease-fire is expected to begin Wednesday morning local time and stop the fighting in Lebanon.
• The much-sought-after deal does not put an end to Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed on a cease-fire to end nearly 14 months of devastating fighting between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday.

Speaking from the White House, Biden said Israeli and Lebanese leadership have accepted a proposal to end the conflict between Israel and its bitter enemy, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

Biden said the cease-fire, designed to permanently end fighting across the Israel-Lebanon border, will take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The agreement does not stop the conflict in Gaza.

The deal will see Israel's military gradually withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period while Hezbollah moves its forces north and the Lebanese army deploys to the south. The White House said it will help ensure that the arrangement is fully enforced.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the country's security cabinet had approved the US-backed cease-fire arrangement in Lebanon. In a statement, the office said, "Israel appreciates the US contribution to the process, and maintains its right to act against any threat to its security."

Netanyahu outlined several reasons for the cease-fire in a televised speech earlier. He said Israel needs to "focus on the Iranian threat," give its forces a break from fighting in Lebanon, replenish stockpiles of weapons and munitions, and isolate Hamas in Gaza.

The Israeli leader said his country maintains "full freedom of military action" and will attack Hezbollah if it violates the agreement or gives any indication that it is preparing to carry out a new assault.

Shortly after Netanyahu's speech, the Israel Defense Forces said it struck several Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including in the capital, Beirut, in what is likely a last-ditch effort to degrade the militant group before fighting stops.

Earlier Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed several people and wounded dozens more.

Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, began attacking Israel in solidarity with Hamas shortly after the latter carried out its October 7, 2023, massacre. Fighting between the two enemies has steadily escalated and has displaced tens of thousands of people in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Israel dramatically increased the military pressure on Hezbollah in September by targeting the militant group in Beirut with airstrikes and killing its senior leadership. At the end of the month, Israeli forces launched a ground invasion into Lebanon — its first in nearly 20 years.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has raged in the weeks since, leaving thousands of people dead across Lebanon.