NOAA has averted the early cancellation of an Amazon Web Services contract that would have caused a slew of agency websites to go dark beginning at midnight, the agency said Friday.

Why it matters: The outages mainly would have affected NOAA's research division, and would have made numerous websites and data sets inaccessible to the public, sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told Axios.

Zoom in: Instead of ending at midnight, the contract will now expire on July 31, allowing the agency more time to figure out a different cloud-computing solution.

• "There will be no interruption in service. All NOAA Research sites will remain online," a NOAA spokesperson told Axios Friday afternoon.
• A social media outcry presented headwinds to the proposed sudden change.
• Among those protesting was NBC "Today" host Al Roker, who tweeted to his more than 2 million followers: "This is bonkers!! These are the real world impacts of Federal government cuts."

Driving the news: The Commerce Department is requiring NOAA — and possibly all department agencies — to cut its IT budget by 50% across the board.

• This is resulting in cloud services contracts being cut — and, potentially more significantly, agency networks that transmit weather and climate information.
• Some of the websites that were slated to go down included the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Climate Program Office, the home website of NOAA research and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, which maintains a cloud-based weather forecasting system developed as a public-private partnership.
• An NSSL outage may have affected some programs, such as the Hazardous Weather Testbed, that the National Weather Service uses for severe weather forecasting.

Bloomberg first reported the impending NOAA IT outages, and Axios independently confirmed them.

NOAA operates complex computer models for weather forecasting and climate change studies, most of which run on supercomputers.

• It also must consistently keep its weather data flowing to the public to provide accurate, life-saving severe weather warnings.

The intrigue: Some climate data may have gone dark Saturday morning as well. But the National Centers for Environmental Information, the U.S. clearinghouse for global climate data, wouldn't have been affected, sources said.

• In addition, certain NOAA labs could have seen their websites go down early Saturday.
• NOAA is facing the prospect of another wave of staffing cuts following the loss of about 800 probationary employees in late February, as well as a new round of early retirements.
• Already, some Weather Service forecast offices have cut back on some of their services, including weather balloon launches that provide key data for computer models.

The other side: The Commerce Department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

What's next: Additional contracts for IT services are due to be renewed or canceled in coming days, including ones that if terminated, may have a direct impact on NOAA's weather communication systems.

• Already, the termination of another contract has stopped the agency from automatically translating its audio forecasts and warnings into Spanish.
• As Axios reported, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick must approve any contract or contract extension that totals at or about $100,000, which is slowing NOAA to a crawl, along with research institutes it funds.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to add comment from NOAA spokesperson.

Go deeper:

Scoop: NOAA operations impaired by Commerce chief's approval mandate

Severe storms are sweeping the U.S. South and Midwest, spawning damaging tornadoes and causing flooding in multiple states into Thursday, when at least four people were reported dead.

The big picture: The National Weather Service warned the "powerful Spring storm system will bring a barrage of life-threatening weather hazards" to parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South Thursday through at least Saturday.

• Tornado damage was reported in at least four states and officials said a tornado injured four people in western Kentucky.

Threat level: In Arkansas, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms to provide funding in response to the severe weather. "We have reports of storm and tornado damage from around the state," she said on X Wednesday night.

• An EF-1 tornado in Vernon County, Missouri, on Wednesday morning "knocked over" eight train carriages, damaged several homes, "numerous businesses" and multiple trees, the National Weather Service's Springfield office said on X.
• Tornado damage was also reported in the Potosi area of Washington County, Missouri, some 72 miles southwest of St. Louis, on Wednesday evening. And storm damage was reported near Brownsburg, Indiana, where a tornado warning was in effect.
• Meanwhile, the NWS' Louisville, Kentucky, office said on X early Thursday a tornado was "on the ground, passing the I-64/I-265 interchange," and its Paducah office announced earlier its staff were sheltering in place:

8:18 PM - Multiple tornado warnings in effect, we are about to shelter in place here at the office!!! pic.twitter.com/l2XDmAucVz

— NWS Paducah, KY (@NWSPaducah) April 3, 2025

Zoom in: The force of the storms knocked down trees and power lines, leaving an estimated 188,000 customers without power in Indiana. In Evansville, Indiana, video shared to social media captured power lines on fire.

• Rainfall totals from the dangerous flooding could match several months' worth of April rain in just four to five days in the hardest-hit areas. Roadways were flooded in Indianapolis late Wednesday and a local reporter shared images of submerged vacant cars.
• The NWS warned of an "increasingly significant setup" with the potential for "catastrophic" flooding in the hardest-hit regions and said Wednesday was "only the beginning of a multi-day catastrophic and potentially historic heavy rainfall event."
• It forecast rainfall totals that could exceed 15 inches in some locations through Sunday, describing it as an "extreme flooding scenario."
• Forecasters were closely watching for rainfall adding up in the Mid-South, particularly across northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee and western Kentucky.

The NWS forecast office in Memphis warned of "Generational flooding" in northwestern Tennessee, saying on X, "This is a rare, high-impact, and potentially devastating event."

• The NWS in Little Rock issued a "particularly dangerous situation" flash flood watch with the wording: "A heavy rainfall event of this magnitude falling within 4 days is an event that happens once in a generation to once in a lifetime."
• Forecasters there warned that areas that have not flooded before are at risk during this event.

Context: Extreme precipitation events are becoming more common and severe due to climate change, as warmer air temperatures hold more moisture.

• A new analysis from the nonprofit research group Climate Central found that heavy precipitation extremes are increasing in frequency in all regions of the country, though there is greater variability at the local levels.
• A marine heat wave in the Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean — a phenomenon increasingly tied to climate change — is also a factor, since this area will be the moisture source region for the heavy rainfall.

In another sign of the event's unusual nature, there is the potential for some spots to set records for the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere.

• This is a way of measuring the precipitation that would result if all of the moisture in a column of air were to condense and fall as rain.

The extreme weather comes amid the Trump administration's push to give states the lead role in disaster response and recovery, potentially dissolving FEMA.

What we're watching: Where the heaviest rainfall sets up, and how severe the ensuing flooding gets.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional developments.

Sareen Habeshian and Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.

A Commerce Department requirement to have Secretary Howard Lutnick approve many NOAA contracts or extensions is slowing the agency's operations to a crawl, current and former NOAA staff tell Axios.

Why it matters: The requirement of Lutnick's approval on contracts and extensions over $100,000 also is having ripple effects for contractors around the country as some contracts expire or are canceled because the time to review them has elapsed.

• It's also raising the possibility that high-priority, previously-awarded contracts will be canceled or modified, depending on Lutnick's views.

Six current and former NOAA staff described dozens of contracts currently awaiting Lutnick's sign-off, with only a tiny fraction having been reviewed so far.

The other side: The department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Zoom in: As severe thunderstorms rumbled along the East Coast on Monday, the National Weather Service faced the possibility of losing its ability to bring satellite and observational data into forecast offices in a timely manner, starting at midnight, current and former NOAA staff told Axios.

• Most spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak with the news media or fear retaliation.
• The department had yet to sign off on an extension to a contract for Raytheon to maintain and help upgrade the software system that powers every Weather Service forecast office nationwide.
• Known as the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, or AWIPS, the system is the primary way that forecasters access weather data from satellites, radars, surface station observations and computer models.

If the contract was to expire — even temporarily — the AWIPS help desk would stop functioning. Data flowing to NWS offices, particularly satellite and observational information, could be subject to delays, two NOAA sources familiar with the matter told Axios.

• This could jeopardize the timely issuance of extreme weather watches and warnings.
• Forecasters would have been operating on a time delay, which could cost lives during severe weather outbreaks.

The intrigue: Even though a contract extension was signed a few hours before midnight, it rattled nerves among some inside and outside the agency.

• They said other NOAA contracts, such as one for satellite operators, have only been approved at the last minute, while others have gotten stuck in the process and led to contractor layoffs.
• Additional significant contracts, such as those for a new weather satellite, are likely to come up for review under this rule.

Contract reviews are affecting NOAA's offices, with a notice going out Tuesday that facilities services — including changing lightbulbs and adjusting the thermostat — have been suspended at NOAA headquarters' buildings in Silver Spring, Md.

What they're saying: "This is outrageously inefficient," Rick Spinrad, NOAA's administrator during the Biden administration, told Axios.

• "Secondly, I understand that the recommendations for approval are being vetted by newly replaced political appointees with zero technical experience," Spinrad said.
• "This is clearly an effort not aimed at efficiency, but rather at erosion of mission."

Between the lines: Raytheon won a $17.8 million last year to maintain and upgrade AWIPS, with options for contract extensions along the way.

• The company's involvement in AWIPS also extends to the start of the system two decades ago, and a 10-year, $269 million contract signed in 2017.
• Right now, each extension to this contract and others must be approved piecemeal.
• This is also affecting organizations NOAA funds for research, such as cooperative institutes in Colorado and Florida, among other contracts.

Scientists that staff NOAA's Hurricane Hunter flights often include several experts from these cooperative institutes, so funding hiccups could affect those operations that are considered critical to high stakes storm track and intensity forecasts.

• In addition to AWIPS, NOAA has several big-ticket items that have come down to the wire because of the $100,000 spending threshold.
• This includes procuring new C-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft to replace its current aging fleet; moving agency IT operations to the cloud; and building and deploying expensive new weather satellites, each of which involve private sector contractors.
• A new, cloud-based version of AWIPS is in the works via a separate contract, as well.

Zoom out: The AWIPS close call also comes shortly after the agency laid off about 800 probationary employees, most of which were then rehired and placed on administrative leave pending the result of court cases.

• Further cuts of up to 1,000 employees are being planned, depending on the number of early retirements at NOAA.

What's next: Tornado season is just getting underway, and hurricane season begins on June 1.

Renewable energy capacity around the world surged last year — particularly in the U.S. and China, according to a new report.

Why it matters: The data shows that renewables, such as wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric power sources are growing at far faster rates than traditional power sources such as coal and natural gas.

Zoom in: The report from the International Renewable Energy Agency shows that 585 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity were added worldwide, accounting for more than 90% of total power expansion last year.

• One gigawatt is enough to power around 876,000 households for one year.
• While the rate of growth hit a record high of 15.1%, that fell short of the 16.6% annual rate of growth required to meet a global goal to triple installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Yes, but: Renewables are still far from meeting the majority of global electricity needs.

• In addition, significant geographical differences remain in the trajectory of renewable energy, with almost 64% of the global added capacity taking place in China.
• The G7 and G20 countries accounted for 14.3% and 90.3% of new capacity last year, respectively.

What they're saying: "Each year [renewables] keep breaking their own expansion records, but we also face the same challenges of great regional disparities and the ticking clock as the 2030 deadline is imminent," IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said in a statement.

Between the lines: Solar and wind energy dominated the expansion rate, with solar increasing by 32.2% and wind energy by 11.1%.

• China alone added 278 gigawatts of power capacity last year, with India adding 24.5 gigawatts.
• Wind energy expansion was down slightly from 2023, the report found, with most of the additions taking place in China and the U.S.

Solar energy also took off in the U.S. during 2024, with the country seeing an added 38.3 gigawatts of solar capacity. This was a 54% increase from 2023, the IRENA report found.

• And the U.S. also added 5.1 gigawatts of wind power capacity in 2024, though this number may be smaller during 2025 with the federal freeze on offshore wind projects in place.

What we're watching: If — and to what extent — the Trump administration's pro-fossil fuel policies and a continued global emphasis on energy security slows the rate of growth of renewables worldwide during the next year.

Fears have grown among National Weather Service advocates that the Trump administration is seeking to privatize or significantly downsize it — moves they say would undo a careful division of labor among government, academia and the private sector.

Why it matters: A balance has been struck over decades within the "weather enterprise" in which NOAA collects raw weather data from the Earth's deep oceans to space, disseminates forecasts through NWS and issues life-saving watches and warnings.

• With recent cuts to the agency, and further staff reductions potentially looming, some fear this balance will be knocked off kilter and that public safety will suffer.

What they're saying: "It is vital for the protection of life and property… that the existing weather enterprise be sustained and enhanced moving forward," Peter Neilley, director of weather forecasting sciences and technologies at The Weather Company, told Axios.

• He said it's simply "not an option" to stop issuing tornado warnings and other life-saving services 24/7 and that doing so requires a dedicated workforce.
• After the recent cuts at NOAA, the American Meteorological Society said: "This unique private-public partnership didn't happen by accident but by design and through persistent effort."

Zoom in: John Dean, CEO of the venture fund-backed weather observation and forecasting firm WindBorne, sees his company as helping NOAA gather data and tap into new, AI-driven models.

• He and other private weather industry representatives oppose cutting NOAA further or privatizing some of it.
• Dean's company launches high-altitude weather balloons that gather data and feed it into computer models, including its own system as well as NOAA's.
• In the wake of last month's NOAA layoffs of probationary employees — and even with the temporary re-hiring of those staffers — WindBorne is working with NOAA to plug data gaps caused by staffing shortages.

As much as Dean may tout his firm's AI forecasting prowess, he isn't interested in taking over NOAA's functions, he told Axios.

The other side: Some who favor a reduced role for NOAA argue its functions could be carried out commercially at a lower cost and higher quality.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he is against breaking up NOAA and privatizing the NWS, though he hasn't ruled out significant changes to make NOAA more efficient.

Friction point: During President Trump's first administration, concerns arose about privatization after Trump nominated Barry Myers, a former AccuWeather executive, to head NOAA. Myers ultimately withdrew, citing health reasons.

• More recently, concerns stem from the NOAA section of Project 2025, a policy roadmap that the White House has been closely following at a number of agencies.
• It called for NOAA to be broken up and NWS to be turned into a data-gathering service with its other functions privatized.

Yes, but: Nearly every private weather forecasting company relies on the raw data that NOAA's satellites, ground observation stations, computer models and other infrastructure gather and disseminate for free.

• Even if most weather apps may not make it obvious, "the private sector has used NOAA information often as foundational to what it does," Neilley said.

Dean envisions his company's relationship with NOAA to NASA's with SpaceX, which the space agency pays to do research and development.

• "I think if you look at that history over the last 20 years, I would deem it overall a huge success in the way that NASA has really embraced a public-private partnership," he told Axios.

NOAA is already working with private-sector satellite firms to purchase weather data that it either cannot get from its own satellite fleet or can use to augment its incoming information.

• The NWS did not respond to a request for comment.

Between the lines: The Weather Company's Neilley called the advancements in weather forecasting during the past 75 years "one of the greatest scientific achievements."

• In an interview with Axios, he described a three-legged stool of academia, private weather and climate companies and the federal government.
• Weaken any leg, he warned, and an "informed and resilient society" is in jeopardy.
• He praised NOAA for taking scientific knowledge and operationalizing it into weather forecasting and other products.

Zoom out: All of this is playing out as certain types of extreme weather events are becoming more common and intense due to human-caused global warming, from heat waves to heavy precipitation events.

• This puts a premium on more accurate forecasting.

What we're watching: Whether and how plans are carried out for further cuts to NOAA's workforce — and the ramifications for the weather industry writ large.

A new scientific report depicts a rapidly warming Earth, with widespread consequences such as sea level rise, melting glaciers and extreme weather events.

Why it matters: The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate 2024 report is designed to inform policymakers of the status of the climate system.

• It depicts a planet with a high — and increasing — fever due to record high levels of human-caused greenhouse gases.

Zoom in: The United Nations agency's annual report, which dates back to 1993, doesn't contain many surprises for those closely following climate science. But it drives home how widespread and unprecedented climate change's effects already are.

• On carbon dioxide, the report finds that current levels of the main long-lived greenhouse gas is at a record high of 151% of preindustrial levels back in the year 1750.
• This is the highest level of CO2 in at least 800,000 years, and likely long before that, the report found.
• Current levels of methane, a powerful, short-term warming agent, are 265% of preindustrial levels, the report shows.

Temperatures will continue to increase as long as carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, with a halt in warming taking place if and when emissions reach net zero.

Context: The report ticks through several key climate change indicators, from sea ice extent to glacier mass loss and sea level rise.

• Researchers found that glacier mass loss during the 2021-2024 period was the most negative-three year glacier mass balance on record.
• Globally, WMO shows that each of the past 10 years were among the 10 warmest on record.
• This is unprecedented in the instrument temperature record dating back to the late 1800s, said Chris Hewitt, director of the climate services division at the WMO, during a Tuesday press call.

In addition, each of the past eight years has set a new record for ocean heat content.

The intrigue: When it comes to sea level rise, the report finds that oceans are now rising faster than they had been just a few decades ago, imperiling low-lying coastal areas.

• According to the WMO, "The long-term rate of sea-level rise has more than doubled since the start of the satellite record," going from 2.1 mm per year during the 1993-2002 period, to 4.7 mm per year between 2015-2024.
• Scientists attribute the faster warming rate to both warming and expanding ocean waters as well as increasing ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, which adds freshwater into the sea.

As has been occurring in most recent years, ocean heat content hit a record high in 2024, which is a clear signal of how it is absorbing extra heat from human-caused climate change.

• The oceans absorb about 90% of the extra heat added to the atmosphere, with much of it going into the top 2,000 meters of the sea.

Between the lines: The report shows that 2024 did exceed the 1.5°C anomaly compared to pre-industrial levels but cautions that this has yet to occur during the long term.

• The 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement is an aspirational goal designed to hold global warming to levels with a lower chance of triggering tipping points in the climate system.
• The target is also viewed as posing less of an existential risk to low-lying small island states.
• At least one recent study has found that the long-term 1.5°C threshold may already have been eclipsed.

In addition, according to the report, the number of people displaced by extreme weather and climate events were the highest in the past 16 years.

Yes, but: Data on displacement is complicated and difficult to track, given that people can have multiple reasons for leaving their homes, in both the developed and developing world.

What they're saying: "While a single year above 1.5 °C of warming does not indicate that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach, it is a wake-up call that we are increasing the risks to our lives, economies and to the planet," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

At least 40 people are dead after tornadoes, high winds and wildfires hit more than a half-dozen states since Thursday.

Threat level: Although the Sunday outlook was less dire, more severe thunderstorms with potential tornadoes were expected from Pennsylvania to Florida.

We are actively monitoring the severe tornadoes and storms that have impacted many States across the South and Midwest — 36 innocent lives have been lost, and many more devastated. The National Guard have been deployed to Arkansas, and my Administration is ready to assist State…

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) March 16, 2025

• Fatalities occurred in Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama from tornadoes that raced at highway speeds on Friday through Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
• States of emergency were in effect due to storms in Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas, where President Trump said in a Sunday statement the National Guard had been deployed.
• The storms had prompted the National Weather Service to issue a rare "high risk" threat designation for Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday, as multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms swept across these states.
• Hard-hit communities include Taylorsville, Miss., and Calera, Ala., among many others, after tornadoes struck at night.
• The storms even targeted at least one NWS office, with forecasters at NWS Birmingham forced to take shelter as a tornado passed close to their building Saturday evening.

Situation report: The extreme storms have resulted in at least 12 deaths reported in Missouri, six in Mississippi and three each in Alabama and Arkansas.

• Dust storms that caused low visibility on Friday resulted in road crashes that killed at least eight people in Kansas and four others in Texas.
• Oklahoma officials confirmed at least four deaths due to "dangerous" wildfires with "straight-line-winds" that saw Gov. Kevin Stitt declare an emergency in 12 counties on Saturday.

State of play: Severe thunderstorms were bringing scattered damaging wind swaths and some tornadoes into Sunday evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

• Tornado warnings were in effect for parts of Florida and North Carolina, and watches for other portions of N.C. and southern Virginia as of Sunday night.
• About 38 million people live in areas designated at "slight" to "enhanced" risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

• Dozens of tornadoes, many of them confirmed by the NWS, have been reported from the Midwest to the Southeast since Friday.
• These numbers are likely to increase on Sunday, despite the lower overall risk level.

Yes, but: As damaging and deadly as this event was, it was not the historic outbreak feared in some states, particularly Alabama.

• Meteorologists are likely to spend years studying what set this storm apart from past landmark outbreaks in order to better forecast them ahead of time.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which severe thunderstorms and tornadoes form.

• Studies show that while some ingredients, such as humidity and atmospheric instability, are likely to increase with a warming climate, others may do the opposite.

Yes, but: When the right mix of ingredients are present, as they have been during the past few days, climate change may lead to larger severe weather outbreaks.

The intrigue: The Southeast, home to so-called "Dixie Alley," has been particularly hard-hit by tornado outbreaks in recent years beginning during March.

Between the lines: This severe weather outbreak has been testing NOAA's ability to handle a large-scale, deadly weather event in the wake of laying off about 800 staff, including more than 100 meteorologists, in late February.

• These layoffs reduced staffing at some local weather forecast offices to threadbare levels, causing some to reduce their services.
• More layoffs of up to around 1,000 NOAA employees are possible in coming weeks, though it's not clear if those would fall at other parts of the agency than NWS.

The bottom line: The tornado and damaging straight-line wind threat is not over yet, as this long-lasting outbreak stretches into another day.

More from Axios:

• Wildfires threaten homes in Texas, Oklahoma
• What we know about how climate change affects tornado outbreaks
• NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights
• 2nd judge orders agencies to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

A dangerous Saturday into Saturday night is set to unfold across the Deep South and into parts of the Southeast as a prolific tornado outbreak hits at least half a dozen states.

Threat level: The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare "high risk" outlook indicating forecasters' confidence in numerous, powerful tornadoes, particularly in parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

• The severe weather is forecast to get underway by late morning in Louisiana and Mississippi, with storms racing northeast with time.
• A potent mix of abundant wind shear, atmospheric instability and unusually strong upper level winds will drive this tornado outbreak, forecasters warned.
• The NWS forecast office in Birmingham released a statement on X Friday noting the rare combination of ingredients that could make this event so significant, said: "This will be a very scary situation for many."

State of play: A "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) tornado watch is in effect until 6pm CT for much of Mississippi and northern Louisiana, for "numerous strong long-track tornadoes" as thunderstorms develop Saturday.

• A second PDS tornado watch is in effect for western, central, and northern Alabama and a sliver of southeastern Mississippi until 8pm CT.
• And a less extreme, non-PDS tornado watch is in effect in middle Tennessee until 9pm CT.
• Multiple damaging tornadoes have been observed in Mississippi and Alabama.

High risk region focuses on Mississippi and Alabama

The high risk zone (Level 5 out of 5 alert level) encompasses more than 3 million people on Saturday including the cities of Birmingham, Jackson, Miss., Tuscaloosa, Ala. and Hattiesburg, Miss.

• About 11 million people are located in the moderate risk zone (Level 4 out of 5 level) Saturday into Saturday night, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge, La., along with Montgomery and Mobile, Alabama and Columbus, Ga.
• Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) issued a state of emergency for the entire state on Friday.
• "The state of Alabama is at risk for potentially dangerous, severe weather throughout this weekend, so it is critical that everyone stays very aware of their local forecasts," Ivey said.

Zoom in: The SPC is using strong language to describe the tornado threat in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama in particular on Saturday.

• "A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley," SPC forecasters wrote in an online discussion Saturday morning.
• "Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening."
• The reference to "violent" tornadoes refers to twisters of EF-3 intensity or greater.

The tornado threat will continue into the overnight hours on Saturday into early Sunday, particularly in Georgia, parts of Tennessee and the Florida Panhandle.

• Overnight tornadoes are particularly deadly because people have a harder time receiving warnings and getting to shelter.

NWS urges preparation for tornado outbreak

Zoom out: The storms on Saturday come after severe weather swept across the Mid-South and Midwest on Friday night, killing at leasst 10 in Missouri as about two dozen tornadoes were reported across multiple states.

• According to the AP, a total of at least 17 people have been killed in multiple states so far in what is now the second day of a severe thunderstorm outbreak.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which severe thunderstorms and tornadoes form.

• Studies show that while some ingredients, such as humidity and atmospheric instability, are likely to increase with a warming climate, others may do the opposite.

Yes, but: When the right mix of ingredients are present, as they are on Saturday, climate change may lead to larger severe weather outbreaks.

The big picture: The NWS is urging people to prepare for the tornado outbreak, with some private sector forecasters instructing residents to be near tornado shelters by midday Saturday.

• Gather important documents, charge your devices, and do not hesitate to act when prompted," the NWS forecast office in Birmingham stated in a forecast discussion.
• "These storms could be moving 50+ MPH when a warning is issued, and time will be of the essence."

The intrigue: The Southeast has been particularly hard-hit by tornado outbreaks in recent years beginning during March.

Between the lines: This severe weather outbreak will test NOAA's ability to handle a large-scale, potentially deadly weather event in the wake of laying off about 800 meteorologists and other staff in late February.

• These layoffs reduced staffing at some local weather forecast offices to threadbare levels, causing some to reduce their services.

The bottom line: This severe weather outbreak is a high-end, potentially historic event.

Go deeper:

What we know about how climate change affects tornado outbreaks

NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights

2nd judge orders agencies to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers

A powerful storm system is set to bring multiple rounds of dangerous severe thunderstorms, with numerous strong tornadoes possible, from the Midwest to the Southeast beginning Friday.

Why it matters: "Today may end up as one of the more prolific severe weather outbreaks in recent memory" in the region, the National Weather Service forecast office in St. Louis said in a forecast discussion Friday.

Threat level: About 100 million people live in areas under threat from straight-line wind damage, hail and tornadoes through the weekend.

• The greatest threat for storms on Friday centers on the Midwest, where a squall line containing straight-line winds and embedded tornadoes is forecast to congeal later in the day and sweep across parts of Missouri east to Indiana.
• A large area of strong winds will occur even outside of severe storms, raising the likelihood of widespread power outages.
• Cities under a "moderate risk" of severe thunderstorms on Friday, which is a Level 4 of 5 on the Storm Prediction Center's threat scale, include Memphis, St. Louis, Des Moines and Springfield, Ill.

The greater threat for powerful tornadoes will occur on Saturday, when an especially volatile setup takes shape across the Deep South and Southeast.

• The Storm Prediction Center has taken the nearly-unheard of step of issuing a "high risk" severe thunderstorm outlook for the next day, indicating increasing confidence in a large-scale tornado outbreak.

Zoom in: The SPC is using strong language to describe the tornado threat in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama in particular on Saturday.

• "Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening," forecasters wrote Friday afternoon.
• The tornado threat will continue into the overnight hours on Saturday into early Sunday.
• Overnight tornadoes are particularly deadly because people have a harder time receiving warnings and getting to shelter, particularly in states with high proportions of mobile homes.

Cities in the high risk zone Saturday include Birmingham, Jackson, Miss., Tuscaloosa, Ala. and Hattiesburg, Miss.

• New Orleans and Baton Rouge, La. are in the moderate risk zone for Saturday.
• Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) issued a state of emergency for the entire state beginning on Friday afternoon.
• "The state of Alabama is at risk for potentially dangerous, severe weather throughout this weekend, so it is critical that everyone stays very aware of their local forecasts," Ivey said.

The NWS forecast office in Birmingham released a statement on X noting the rare combination of ingredients that could make this event so significant, summarizing it as: "This will be a very scary situation for many."

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which severe thunderstorms and tornadoes form. Studies show that while some ingredients, such as humidity and atmospheric instability, are likely to increase with a warming climate, others may do the opposite.

• Climate change is anticipated to decrease the amount of wind shear available to severe thunderstorms, which could deprive them of a key ingredient for tornado formation.

Yes, but: When the right mix of ingredients are present, climate change may lead to larger severe weather outbreaks, albeit fewer in number overall per year.

The intrigue: The Southeast has been particularly hard-hit by tornado outbreaks in recent years beginning during March.

• Some researchers have noted a shift of so-called "Tornado Alley" to the southeast and earlier in the year, away from some of the Plains states and Midwest, over time.
• However, tornado alley itself has long been considered somewhat of a misnomer in the meteorology community, with multiple areas favored for tornado outbreaks. Tornadoes can and have occurred in any state.

Between the lines: This severe weather outbreak will test NOAA's ability to handle a large-scale, potentially deadly weather event in the wake of laying off about 800 meteorologists and other staff in late February.

• These layoffs reduced staffing at some local weather forecast offices to threadbare levels, causing some to reduce their services.
• Some meteorologists are also having to put in more frequent overtime shifts.
• Recent court rulings may bring at least some of those fired federal workers back on the job at least temporarily.

Further staff reductions of about 1,000 NOAA workers are planned, though it is not clear if those would focus on the NWS or NOAA's other missions.

The bottom line: This severe weather outbreak could be a high-end, potentially historic event, resulting in multiple powerful, long-lasting tornadoes, particularly in the Southeast on Saturday and Saturday night.

Go deeper:

Scoop: NOAA monthly media calls on climate change suspended

NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights

2nd judge orders agencies to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers

NASA has cut its office of the chief scientist and its Office of Science, Policy, and Strategy, among other entities, the agency said in an internal email that Axios has viewed.

Why it matters: Eliminating these offices comes ahead of potentially deep cuts to the agency's science programs.

• Katherine Calvin, a climate scientist, had the role of chief scientist. Questions have arisen about the fate of NASA science programs, particularly its Earth science work studying human-caused climate change.
• Calvin has also held the dual title of NASA's senior climate adviser.

Zoom in: In the email, Acting NASA Administrator Janet Petro said the cuts were part of a "phased" reduction in force, or RIF.

• The reduction came in response to instructions from President Trump's executive orders and in conjunction with the Office of Personnel Management and Office of Management and Budget.
• Another office cut is the Office of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility branch of the agency's Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity.
• Around 20 people were affected by the cuts.

NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner told Axios: "To optimize our workforce, and in compliance with an Executive Order, NASA is beginning its phased approach to a reduction in force, known as a RIF."

• The spokesperson confirmed the offices that would be closed and their workforce let go.

The intrigue: The NASA office of the chief scientist is responsible for providing "independent assessment and advice to the Administrator on matters related to NASA science," and leads the development of the agency's science strategy.

• The chief scientist also plays a top role in setting the agency's scientific integrity policies.
• The office of science, policy and strategy is home to NASA's chief technologist and chief economist, and was created in 2021 to provide evidence-based strategic advice to agency leadership.

What they're saying: "Change of this magnitude is never easy, but our strength comes to our shared commitment to our mission and to each other," Petro wrote in the email.

• In a post on X that he subsequently deleted, Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics external relations lead Grant Tremblay sharply criticized the moves.
• "NASA is small, but it is arguably the most legendary and globally beloved agency in American history. Its gutting has begun, & the cuts to come are so massive that we won't recognize it in a year," wrote Tremblay, who said he was speaking in a personal capacity.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect the deletion of Grant Tremblay's X post.

Thousands of residents in eastern Australia were ordered to evacuate, as Tropical Cyclone Alfred's heavy rains and powerful winds blast two states ahead of it's expected landfall near Brisbane, the country's third-largest city.

The big picture: It's already caused widespread power outages and triggered storm surge along the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coasts. Those who haven't evacuated were urged to stay inside ahead of its expected hit as a Category 2 storm, per the Bureau of Meteorology.

• Airports, schools and businesses were closed, as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned that heavy to locally intense rainfall would bring heavy flooding ahead of it's expected landfall around lunchtime Saturday local time (Friday morning ET).
• Cyclone Alfred is the equivalent of a strong tropical storm in the U.S., but its slow rate of speed and unusual landfall location make it an especially heightened threat.

Threat level: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said at a Friday briefing that rainfall and wind impacts were expected to continue increasing.

• "This is a serious weather event, with heavy rain, destructive winds and major flooding expected," Albanese said.
• Queensland Premier David Crisafulli at a briefing called Cyclone Alfred an "extremely rare event," with the last such storm hitting state capital Brisbane in 1974.
• "Overnight we saw it packed a punch," he said, after some 82,000 properties on Queensland's Gold Coast and northern NSW lost power.

Between the lines: Tropical cyclones aren't usually so intense this far south and they don't usually make landfall in this region.

• Research suggests tropical cyclones are intensifying more quickly, with stronger wind speeds and heavier rainfall and they may "retain their strength for longer, and move more slowly" across areas in "our rapidly changing climate," per the Australian nonprofit the Climate Council.
• Cyclone Alfred was primarily influenced by human-driven climate change, which intensified the meteorological conditions that led to the event, according to new analysis by ClimaMeter, which provides a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate.

What they're saying: "Cyclone Alfred is a striking example of how human-driven climate change is altering the intensity and behavior of tropical cyclones in Australia," said Stavros Dafis, a researcher at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece, who's involved in the ClimaMeter project, in an emailed statement.

• "The combination of higher sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture is fueling heavier rainfall and stronger winds," he added.
• "Our analysis of historical cyclone records suggests that storms like Alfred are becoming more intense and producing more extreme precipitation, raising the risk of catastrophic flooding and coastal erosion."

In photos: Cyclone Alfred bears down on Australia's east coast

Go deeper: Extreme precipitation risks currently underestimated

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional context.

The layoffs that hit about 800 NOAA employees last week will hamstring the agency's fleet of hurricane research aircraft, experts warn.

Threat level: NOAA's aircraft have specialized equipment that the Air Force's Hurricane Hunters lack. Their flights during hurricane season are aimed at feeding data into computer models to improve forecast accuracy.

• The now-thinly staffed team of flight directors, engineers, scientists and mechanics means NOAA will struggle to maintain a 24-hour-a-day tempo of flying its modified Gulfstream jet and aging WP-3 research aircraft, said Josh Ripp, who was laid off as a flight engineer since he was a probationary employee.
• Ripp said the missing flights will translate into less accurate forecasts and greater risk for coastal residents who are used to having at least two to three days' warning of a hurricane's predicted landfall location.
• He told Axios in an interview that the agency is now either short one person or is at just the level of personnel needed to staff 24/7 flight operations, which has been the desired tempo during past seasons.

However, that assumes no one gets sick or has a family emergency and cannot crew a flight. NOAA, he said, is now "playing the odds that everyone there is going to be fine all season."

Zoom in: Two others associated with NOAA's hurricane research program confirmed the challenges the agency faces after the layoffs hit its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations in Lakeland, Fla.

• According to Andrew Hazelton, who was laid off from working on hurricane forecast models at the National Hurricane Center, the cuts may compromise forecast accuracy and ultimately cost lives.
• He said NOAA uses the information from the flights in two ways. One is to gauge the intensity and movement of a storm, since such data is immediately relayed to the Hurricane Center.
• The other is to use the specialized equipment — such as powerful, tail-mounted-Doppler radar — to gather data that's fed into hurricane forecast models to better anticipate a storm's movement and shifts in intensity.

Consistent NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane reconnaissance has helped lead to vast improvements in hurricane track forecasts in particular, with new gains made in intensity projections in recent years.

Between the lines: NOAA only has a minimum capacity of flight directors, positions that require years of training, according to one source familiar with staffing issues who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution if they are rehired.

• It missed out on gaining three who were in the hiring process when the Trump administration instituted a government-wide freeze, and then lost two to the layoffs, the source said.
• "This leaves the exact number for staffing four total WP-3 and G-IV crews," the source said. "It leaves no room for anyone to get sick or have a life event that precludes them from being able to fly."
• "It will, of course, also lead to burnout of the remaining flight directors," they said, noting that flight engineers are also at "critically low" levels of personnel.

Hazelton told Axios that NOAA is running the risk that a storm will approach the coast and that the agency won't be able to fly into and around it with its advanced capabilities.

• "I think that's a real risk that could happen if some of these moves aren't reversed," he said.

What they're saying: NOAA wouldn't comment specifically about the Hurricane Hunter staffing issue.

• "As per longstanding practice, we don't discuss internal personnel and management matters," the agency said in a statement to Axios.
• "NOAA remains dedicated to providing timely information, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the statement said. "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Go deeper:

DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

The planet had its third-warmest February on record, following a surprise record-hot January, new data shows.

Why it matters: This is the first month not to be the first or second-hottest on record since June 2023. It may indicate some slight cooling relative to the not fully explained, record-shattering heat of the past two years.

• Global sea ice extent hit a benchmark low, however.

Zoom in: The new data, from Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, shows the planet had a far cooler February compared to January, with the U.S. and Canada standing out as the most unusually cold regions.

• February had a global average surface temperature that was 1.59°C (2.86°F) above the preindustrial average.
• This made it the 19th month out of the past 20 to exceed 1.5°C above the preindustrial level.

The 1.5°C threshold is an aspirational temperature target under the Paris Climate Agreement.

• Studies have shown that should the climate warm beyond it, which is almost certain at this point, the odds of potentially disastrous climate change effects become more likely.

The intrigue: The persistent record heat which began in 2023 and may only now be letting up slightly, hasn't been fully explained by known factors in addition to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

• The other factors that may have contributed extra warming range from changes in marine shipping fuels to El Niño and La Niña and shifts in maritime cloud cover.
• Climate scientists are still studying the record warmth of the past two-plus years, with some buying into the possibility that global warming may have accelerated, at least in the short term.

Zoom out: The Copernicus report is based on reanalysis data, specifically the ERA5 data set.

• Reanalysis involves taking billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world to accurately estimate in near real-time global weather and climate conditions.
• Global sea ice extent, which combines the sea ice extents of the Arctic and Antarctic, set a new minimum for the month.

In the Arctic, where sea ice is nearing its seasonal maximum, the ice extent was its lowest on record for the third month in a row.

• Antarctic sea ice may have hit its lowest seasonal minimum extent on record, but that won't fully be known for another month, Copernicus stated.

Yes, but: February's dip in temperatures could be temporary, with more records resuming in coming months.

What they're saying: "The current record low global sea ice extent revealed by the Copernicus analysis is of serious concern as it reflects major changes in both the Arctic and Antarctic," said Simon Josey of the UK's National Oceanography Center, in a statement.

Google's Cloud division is taking a major step toward making operational recent gains in AI weather forecast models and marketing them for the energy industry, the company tells Axios exclusively.

Why it matters: This is a prominent example of a tech company that invested in developing AI models to make the transition from research to applications.

• AI weather models are in their infancy but have demonstrated remarkable accuracy. Those advances have come as certain extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent due to human-caused global warming.

Driving the news: Google Cloud is marketing two AI forecast models to its enterprise cloud customers.

• Both were developed by Google DeepMind, and used historical weather data to make predictions about future conditions out to 10 to 15 days in advance.
• One model, previously known as GenCast, bested some of the world's most accurate modeling systems.
• It generates probabilistic projections to allow companies to plan for high impact, low probability scenarios as well as the most likely forecast outcomes.

The big picture: The tech industry has largely led the charge on AI modeling given its expertise working with large datasets and access to significant computer resources.

• Google, Microsoft and Nvidia have each pursued the development of AI weather models despite none of them being a strictly weather and climate company.
• However, Google is now out in front when it comes to bringing its models to market.

The intrigue: Google Cloud is bringing two models, branded as "WeatherNext," to its Cloud enterprise customers to try to help them plan for extreme weather.

• The energy industry is a key customer given companies' needs to plan for changing weather conditions, Pete Battaglia, director of research for sustainability at Google DeepMind, told Axios in an interview.
• Energy companies, Google hopes, will find the new tools useful for everything from planning for supply and demand swings to anticipating the need to tap into battery storage resources.
• Google also hopes it can lead them to make decisions on where to build renewable energy infrastructure.

Google's Cloud division also sees future demand for its new weather models coming from the logistics and retail sectors, as companies seek to optimize shipping routes and stores try to stock their shelves with weather-appropriate gear.

Zoom out: Google made its announcement in the run-up to the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, which features top oil and gas CEOs and representatives of the renewables sector as well as utilities.

• The announcement also comes as NOAA, the nation's top weather and climate agency goes through rounds of cuts and an uncertain future.
• Most private sector weather providers obtain original weather data for free from NOAA and other global centers, then use it to feed into their proprietary weather models.
• AI weather models work differently, since they are trained on historical weather data and don't involve computationally-intensive physics equations, enabling them to be run far faster and cheaper than traditional models.

NOAA's approach to AI weather modeling is still developing, and Battaglia said he is open to collaboration opportunities between the agency and GoogleDeepMind.

The bottom line: AI weather models are going mainstream, tailored to specific use cases. For now, they are supplementing, rather than replacing, traditional physics-based models.

The Trump administration has informed NOAA that two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.

• It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather data and forecasts across the U.S. and abroad.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

• Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
• The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
• The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

The lease cancellation was first reported by The Verge. The National Weather Service didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.

The other side: A senior White House official told Axios on Tuesday that for NOAA, the administration is "simply reevaluating the lease terms, not closing any building, which any good steward of money would do."

• The official stressed that no formal lease-cancellation letter has been sent to NOAA. The official acknowledged that DOGE is canceling leases at other government agencies, but said NOAA is an exception.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

• The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
• In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.
• It would also require new congressional appropriations to get that done.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all the properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

• Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, now has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
• That facility in Norman, Okla. is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

The DOGE website has a section on canceled or modified government real estate properties. It shows several NOAA facilities, though not the exact building in College Park as of Monday.

• In addition to the National Weather Service-related properties, numerous buildings on the so-called "wet side" of NOAA are on the list the agency received, including the National Marine Fisheries Service.

What they're saying: Andrew Rosenberg, a former NOAA official on the agency's fisheries side, has seen the cancellation list. He likened the College Park situation to cutting the government via a "chainsaw" approach rather than more fully considered cuts.

• Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Axios he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland.
• "I am worried," he told Axios after speaking at a rally Monday outside NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Md.
• "We know they're looking through GSA," he said of DOGE. "We should be concerned and worry about all these things, which is why the sooner we shut down the efforts to illegally get rid of federal employees the better."

Van Hollen said his staff will look into the College Park facility in particular. He already has sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking answers following the NOAA cuts of probationary employees last week.

• His office put the total of those layoffs to 650 out of NOAA's approximately 12,000-person workforce.

What's next: NOAA, like other government agencies, has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

Go deeper:

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

Editor's note: This story is updated with comments from the White House.

The cuts of about 800 probationary employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sliced deep into the agency tasked with a range of safety missions.

Why it matters: The cuts spared "only some" specialists at its National Weather Service, according to a congressional aide speaking on condition of anonymity.

• Layoffs at NOAA, a top weather and climate agency, come as climate change causes more intense and frequent weather and climate extremes.

The big picture: By Thursday night, some Weather Service and NOAA offices were already cutting back on their services.

• A bulletin from NWS headquarters announced that staffing shortages would prevent the twice-daily weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska. These provide information on upper air conditions to fine-tune computer models that help predict the weather across the U.S.
• The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory announced its public communications would be on "indefinite hiatus" due to staffing shortages.

Among the deepest of NOAA's cuts was to the Office of Space Commerce. It licenses commercial satellites and issues warnings to satellites to prevent them from getting too close to one another in orbit, among other national security-related tasks.

• Multiple layoffs hit the NWS' Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for keeping the agency's computer models operating.

Zoom in: The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters; NOAA's satellites division; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J.; and divisions on the oceans side of the agency.

• GFDL and the research office at NOAA both do cutting-edge climate science work, including developing computer models to project global warming.
• Sources at NOAA who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs. A spokesperson for the NWS declined to comment on personnel matters but told Axios: "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."
• "NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the spokesperson said.

As of Friday, NOAA's travel cards had been cut, halting agency travel, and purchase cards were reduced to $1 except for about a dozen. There were also reports of leases for office space being canceled.

Friction point: The cuts infuriated the tight-knit weather and climate community, which depends on NOAA for raw data, forecast guidance, computer modeling, hurricane research flights and watch and warning information.

• Many meteorologists took to social media to vent their frustrations. Some warned the cuts could cost lives as severe weather season approaches.
• "The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service, is profoundly alarming," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a statement posted to X.
• "The NWS is a critical public utility, and it would be extremely difficult to rebuild if torn down. This is not, in short, an acceptable setting in which to 'move fast and break things,'" he said.

Threat level: Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who was laid off from his role in NOAA Communications, told Axios that the cuts to NWS in particular will be harmful.

• "We will be less prepared for the next disaster and the disaster after that," Di Liberto said. "We're asking an already short-staffed agency to deal with increasing extremes with less people. Burnout will be real."
• About 300 members of the NWS may have been affected, one source said, about 7% of the service. Even before the cuts, the NWS in particular was short-staffed.
• As of February, NOAA had about 12,000 full-time employees, according to its website.

What they're saying: Lawmakers denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy.
• "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.

Zoom out: The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

• The layoffs have mainly hit employees with less than two years of service.
• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster its headcount and add more computing power.

What we're watching: How the cuts — and potentially deeper staff reductions to come — affect the accuracy and timeliness of NOAA's extreme weather warnings as well as its climate products.

The Commerce Department has laid off hundreds of NOAA employees, many with specialized skills who work at one of the world's top climate science and weather forecasting agencies.

Why it matters: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is responsible for providing weather watches and warnings, monitoring and studying Earth's climate, as well as operating weather satellites and protecting marine life.

• The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

The big picture: NOAA's missions require staff to work around the clock to monitor dangerous weather, earthquakes that could cause tsunamis, and other hazards.

• In recent weeks, NOAA's National Weather Service has issued warnings for deadly flooding in Kentucky, heavy snow, frigid temperatures and other hazards across the country.
• While NOAA had pushed for public safety exemptions from the layoffs for NWS meteorologists, not all were granted. A congressional aide reported hearing that "some" at NWS were spared but "not many."

The layoffs follow moves at other agencies across the government and are hitting employees with less than two years of service.

• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.
• Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs.
• The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters, NOAA's satellites division, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., parts of the NWS, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, as well as divisions on the oceans side of the agency.
• Probationary employees and some supervisors in the Office of Space Commerce were let go too.

What they're saying: Lawmakers have denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy. "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is the ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday, "People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information."

Even before the layoffs, the NWS in particular was short-staffed. It isn't yet clear precisely how many forecasters and supervisors have been impacted by the cuts.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster staffing and add more computing power to improve its weather forecast models.

• In the days leading up to the NOAA cuts, weather broadcasters and other meteorologists spoke out in favor of the agency on social media, noting its crucial role in providing accurate weather data and warnings.

Zoom out: The NOAA layoffs come amid thousands of layoffs at other climate-related agencies, including the EPA, Energy Department, Department of Agriculture and the Interior Department.

• The Interior Department layoffs include significant cuts to the National Parks Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
• The environmental group Center for Biological Diversity put the cuts at Interior as 4% of the overall department.

The intrigue: The layoffs of probationary employees with less than one to two years of service is depriving the agency of some younger employees just as older individuals have taken the government's "Fork in the Road" buyout offer.

• The downsizing is in line with similar moves across the government.

What's next: Federal agencies, including NOAA, are expected to undergo significant further cuts in the coming months as the Trump administration moves swiftly to reduce the size of the federal government.

• The entity leading the charge on this front has been billionaire Musk's DOGE, which visited NOAA's offices and gained access to some of its IT systems.
• NOAA has reportedly been asked to prepare for shaving off up to one-third of its budget, which could disrupt core functions such as weather forecasting, climate data gathering and research.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional reporting on where specific cutbacks occurred at NOAA and with comments from Rep. Jared Huffman.

Go deeper:

Cuts drain federal government of technical expertise

NOAA told to search grant programs for climate-related terms

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

Spring is getting warmer overall and featuring more unusually hot days in most U.S. cities, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Warmer springs can cause early snowmelt, which can imperil summer water resources and heighten wildfire risks.

• Warmer springs can also worsen allergies, among other effects.

Zoom in: Nonprofit climate research and communications organization Climate Central examined 55 years of U.S. temperature data for 241 cities and found that the meteorological spring season of March through May has warmed by a national average of 2.4°F.

• In an analysis released Wednesday, the group found that 97% of the 241 cities analyzed saw a warming trend for the season.
• Four out of every five cities now see at least one more week of warmer-than-average spring days compared to the 1970s.
• The geography of the warming across the U.S. shows that the fastest rates are in the southern tier, with the Southwest leading the pack at an average spring warming of 3.4°F.

By the numbers: The cities that have warmed the most since 1970 were Reno, Nev., which has seen average seasonal temperatures spike by 6.8°F, followed by El Paso, Texas at 6.4°F and Las Vegas at a seasonal average temperature increase of 6.1°F.

• Tucson, Albany, Ga., Chattanooga, Tenn. and Phoenix round out the fastest-warming list in the analysis.
• While the Southwest is the region seeing the fastest-warming spring, the fall actually outranks spring for the fastest-warming season in much of the Southwest and West.
• And winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., along with Alaska.

Yes, but: One region of the U.S. has seen some cooling during spring.

• It stretches from northern Montana into North and South Dakota as well as a sliver of Minnesota.

The intrigue: As spring temperatures have increased, the average number of days with above-average temperatures also went up in 98% of the locations analyzed.

• Locations in the Southwest, West, Southeast and South had the greatest increase in the average number of warmer-than-average spring days since 1970.
• Tampa, for example, now has an average of 37 more days with hotter-than-normal spring temperatures, Climate Central found.

Between the lines: The spring warming in the U.S. is taking place in tandem with increasing temperatures around the world due to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

The Trump administration moved Sunday to fire some 2,000 U.S. Agency for International Development workers and place most others on administrative leave, according to an email the agency sent to staff.

The big picture: The action that's set to take effect on Sunday just before midnight comes days after a federal judge permitted the administration to move ahead with the mass firings and continue the DOGE-led dismantling of the large-scale operation at what was the world's largest humanitarian aid organization.

Driving the news: "As of 11:59 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 23, 2025, all USAID direct hire personnel, with the exception of designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and/or specially designated programs, will be placed on administrative leave globally," per the email to staff that was obtained by outlets including Axios.

• "Concurrently, USAID is beginning to implement a Reduction-in-Force that will affect approximately 1,600 USAID personnel with duty stations in the United States," added the email that's now posted on USAID's website.

Context: The Trump administration moved earlier this month to place direct hires on administrative leave globally and announced that it would pay for USAID personnel posted overseas to return travel to the U.S. within 30 days.

• Unions representing USAID workers sued the Trump administration, calling the action to dismantle the agency "unconstitutional and illegal."
• However, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols on Friday lifted a temporary restraining order he had issued in the case after finding that "initial assertions of harm were overstated" by the plaintiffs.

Zoom out: Elon Musk has been leading a drive to dismantle USAID amid his DOGE cost-cutting efforts across all federal agencies.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio, USAID's acting administrator, said the administration's goal was to "identify programs that work and continue them and to identify programs that are not aligned with our national interest" and address them.
• In a separate case, a federal judge paused the Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid.
• Representatives for the State Department and White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Agencies, unions tell fed workers: Don't answer Musk's threat email

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Employee buyouts, terminations and uncertainty at multiple federal agencies are sparking warnings about an erosion of scientific and technical expertise at a crucial moment.

Why it matters: No one country now dominates in every scientific field. The U.S. is in a tight competition with China for science and tech leadership as innovation amasses more economic value and geopolitical tensions rise.

• "It doesn't just impact federal employees," said a former National Science Foundation employee. "It will reduce our ability to maintain any leadership in the international landscape."

The big picture: By purging workers as well as enticing people to quit via early retirement, the federal government has cast aside specialists needed to help agencies fulfill their missions.

• Rocket scientists, ecologists, climate scientists, AI experts, chemists and other highly skilled workers have been affected.
• The scientists who remain at agencies are trying to do more with less, while in many cases anxiously awaiting more cuts.

Zoom in: Agencies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are seeing a slew of early retirements plus job cuts that have either been carried out or are likely to come.

• People are "walking away with years of institutional knowledge," one current NOAA scientist said.
• "The door is revolving pretty quickly at NASA right now," one current space agency worker said. "They are losing people with tremendous amounts of experience."

Axios spoke to four current employees, and four who lost their jobs in recent weeks, who requested anonymity out of fear of retribution. They expressed concerns about a brain drain and loss of expertise.

Catch up quick: The National Science Foundation on Feb. 18 cut 168 employees — about 10% of its staff.

• Half were probationary employees, many of whom have Ph.D.s in their fields.
• The other half were contract workers who are highly specialized in their fields and who often work full-time jobs at universities and other institutions.

The intrigue: NOAA is bracing for cuts to its probationary workforce, and is already losing employees to the early retirement offer.

• The top climate and weather agency also operates satellites, manages national fisheries and handles marine species protection.
• NASA appears to have avoided immediate and sweeping cuts to its probationary staff — but a wave of high-profile retirements have cast uncertainty over the flagship Artemis Mission to return to the Moon.
• "Everyone is wondering if the other shoe is going to drop or what they're going to hear next week or never. It's terrible," one NASA employee said, adding that it has already driven people away.
• About 5% of NASA's workforce took the administration's deferred resignation buyout deal, NASA stated. The agency said it plans to cut its probationary workforce based on employee performance.

The other side: Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, President Trump trumpeted his general efforts to cut government.

• "We have escorted the radical-left bureaucrats out of the building and have locked the doors behind them," he said. "We've gotten rid of thousands."
• In an earlier post on Truth Social, he praised Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency: "ELON IS DOING A GREAT JOB, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM GET MORE AGGRESSIVE."
• NASA and NSF didn't respond to questions about concerns of loss of expertise.

Between the lines: Probationary employees have typically been in their roles less than one or two years.

• But that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't worked in the government for longer. The probationary clock can sometimes reset when someone is promoted, transferred between agencies or steps into a new role.

The impact: The consequences of losing scientists, engineers, technicians and educators who conduct research, review grant applications, engage with communities across the country and oversee programs and missions will come in waves, several people said.

• "The immediate loss is by removing all the people we brought in to fill critical gaps in ecological modeling, advanced survey statistics, cloud and AI advancements," the current NOAA scientist said.

The main role of NSF is assessing proposals from scientists and engineers for taxpayer-funded research. Its annual budget is roughly $9 billion.

• "We need people who are incredibly smart with the expertise to determine if research is feasible and if it is moving the needle forward," the former NSF employee said.

What to watch: A secondary impact may be on the pipeline of future STEM talent in the U.S.

• The cuts "remove all desire for new workers to look at the government as a realistic option," the NOAA scientist said.
• It is "chopping off the whole younger layer, which any place needs to survive. These are people who know AI and have grown up with this stuff that these old fogies haven't."
• "To move us forward, we need them."