• Blackstone has released a comedic holiday video for the last seven years.
• Last year's Taylor Swift-theme video attracted eight million viewers.
• Business Insider has watched and ranked them all so you don't have to.

Blackstone released its first satirical holiday video in 2018 as a way to liven up employees' spirits in lieu of the company-wide holiday party, a tradition that was canceled because the firm had grown too large.

Now, it's a viral sensation. Eight million people have viewed last year's video featuring Blackstone executives doing their best to match the success of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour with a pop song about alternative investments. It made headlines, with the Daily Mail questioning whether it was "the most cringeworthy corporate video ever."

This year, the company doubled down on the singing (and introduced line-dancing) in its most ambitious (and outlandish) holiday video yet. It also featured 200 employees, up from just 20 in 2018, a testiment to the video's popularity within the firm.

Jay Gillespie, Blackstone's head of video, joked that his role in producing the video has made him a hot commodity at 345 Park Avenue.

"People come up to me throughout the year, and they're like, 'My daughter is helping me rehearse so I might get a line next year,'" Gillespie told Business Insider. "People are really into lobbying to be in it."

If you don't get it, don't worry. We decided to help readers save time by watching and reviewing all of the firm's videos going back to 2018.

No. 7: 2020

This video came out in December 2020, during the depths of the pandemic. It stuck to the theme it launched in 2018 of depicting Blackstone as a version of the NBC sitcom "The Office," but executives wore face masks and pandemic jokes featured prominently. In an early scene one Blackstone executive has a hard time recognizing a colleague with out-of-control long hair. (Remember when all the barber shops were closed?)

While it was a bleak time, the video ends on an upbeat note, with Blackstone employees cutting loose to "I'm Walking on Sunshine," kicking off the tradition of holiday video songs, which have featured prominently since. Still, it's a bit stuck in the pandemic era, hence its place at No. 7.

No. 6: 2022

The conceit of this holiday season is fake news station "BX TV News" prompting Jon Gray to search for Blackstone's secret sauce. (It was a roundabout way for the firm to tout its plan to hit $1 trillion assets under management, which it has since achieved.)

Schwarzman returns to a role he often plays in these videos as the sincere elder statesman to explain that the firm's true secret sauce is its employees. But then, he notes that there is a secret hidden in the basement, setting two executives on an Indiana-Jones-referencing journey to find the scroll with the firm's secret. This weird twist is the highlight of the video.

The video successfully makes a number of self-deprecating jokes about Blackstone's love of acronyms (BCRED, anyone?) and Wall Street's notorious work hours. By 2022, however, the company has been going with "The Office" theme for four years, hence its ranking.

No. 5: 2021

The budget for the holiday video clearly increased this year, with a storyline about the birth of BX TV, the firm's weekly video call that Gray is incredibly enthusiastic about (and employees, less so). There are animals, special effects, and a Reese Witherspoon cameo.

The key joke is a fake award ceremony where Gray receives "'Best Weekly Internal Zoom Call at an Alternative Asset Management firm." The hope is that it will convince the firm's president and chief operating officer that it's time to move on with John Finley, chief legal officer, saying, "I make one call to the FCC and they'll cancel this clown car."

Employees chant "end it," and celebrate as they think Gray has decided to cancel the show after winning the award. But instead, it's clear that 2022's BX TV season is already being planned, and the internal video call is still a weekly requirement at the firm.

No. 4: 2018

Scranton, Pennsylvania, is a long way from Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, and Dunder Mifflin would be among its smallest portfolio companies, yet Blackstone successfully riffed off the NBC sitcom "The Office" for its first annual holiday video. The video begins with the theme music from the television show, and like "The Office," there is hand-held camera work and plenty of "candid" interviews with executives. There's also a Michael Scott look-alike. As with all the holiday videos that follow, this one starts with Jon Gray calling his executive assistant, Laurie Carlson.

This video started it all and set the tone for Blackstone's trademark style of mixing the firm's reality with jokes. The premise of the video is that Blackstone canceled its holiday party and replaced it with a video, which actually happened. And Jon Gray really does, sometimes, act a bit like Michael Scott in his enthusiasm for wild ideas, according to people who know him. There are fewer visual gags and no Hollywood cameos, but it's a classic.

No. 3: 2023

The 2023's holiday video marked the first time Blackstone moved away from being a parallel version of "The Office" (only the title card remains). Instead, it's an homage to Taylor Swift and the Eras tour, with Blackstone trying to replicate her success with its own song about alternative investments.

This is video that broke into the wider world, spawning more than a few mocking tabloid headlines. But for a video series that's main goal is to help the firm laugh at itself, that's a measure of success. Add that this immortal line: "Just this once, I do hope people confuse us with BlackRock." Also, you get to see Steve Schwarzman dancing while wearing some glittery fringe top.

No. 2: 2019

The 2019 holiday video revolves around Blackstone' absurd search for a company mascot, which turns out to be Mr. Stone, a mascot that looks like a cross of Hulk and Jon Gray. The international offices of Blackstone get cameos in this one, as does a plug for Steve Schwarzman's book, What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence"

Gray told BI that this was his favorite in the series because of the mascot. The firm not only hired a company to build the mascot suit, but also made dozens of bobbleheads which still show up in holiday videos, and on some people's desks.

We agree that that the mascot joke works, hence its ranking.

This video also ends with one of the best Steve Schwarzman gags of the series, when it's revealed that Schwarzman has been the mysterious person inside Mr. Stone the whole time.

No. 1: 2024

After last year's reception, leaned in to the cringe with a metaverse-like exploration of Blackstone executives as reality television stars that ends in a country song-and-dance routine.

It features appearances from famous friends. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, which was originally created within Blackstone before spinning out in the 1990s, gets in a joke about how the two firms get confused for each other.

An extended "Real Housewives" bit includes some shade from Jenna Lyons, "Real Housewives of New York" star, fashion designer and executive creative director at Fundamental Co, a branding agency spun out of Blackstone last year.

The highlight, however, was billionaire founder and CEO Steve Schwarzman playing Kendall Jenner attempting to cut a cucumber, which has to be one of the most mind-bending images ever put on screen. (We are still struggling to fully process it.)

Gray told BI that the turn to country was inspired by Beyonce's own embrace of the genre this year on "Cowboy Carter", which came in the wake of her 2016 snub by the Country Music Awards. And just like Beyonce, some of the firm's best work comes when they don't let the critics stop them.

• Blackstone's holiday video series is back, and this time the firm is going country.
• The video combines another original song with a slew of reality-television parodies.
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and fashion designer and reality-TV star Jenna Lyons make cameos.

Blackstone on Thursday launched its most ambitious holiday video yet on Thursday, featuring 200 employees, two cameos, and a country music song-and-line-dance routine.

The video series, which has become must-see TV for Wall Street, is in its seventh year. Last year's version attracted widespread attention, resulting in 8 million views across various platforms, the company said. The videos seek to poke fun at the people behind Blackstone, which manages $1 trillion in assets, while also touting its investment prowess.

This year's video ditched its usual framing around NBC's hit sitcom "The Office" in favor of reality-TV parodies and included a brief appearance by the "Real Housewives of New York" star and fashion designer Jenna Lyons. Some of Blackstone's portfolio companies, including Supergoop and Jersey Mike's, also got airtime.

It kicks off with a recap of last year's video, which depicted Jon Gray, Blackstone's president and chief operating officer, compelling the firm's executives to go on tour like Taylor Swift. In a "Behind the Music"-type parody, the executives lament the poor reception they received for their "cringeworthy" song titled "The Alternatives Era."

"People just stopped talking to me," Jon Korngold, the global cohead of technology investing and head of Blackstone growth, said. "CEOs, LPs, even my mom."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink makes an appearance to turn his nose up at the company.

"Can you believe people confuse us with them," Fink says.

The story takes a turn when Christine Anderson, the head of corporate affairs at Blackstone and one of the masterminds of the firm's holiday video tradition, decides that the next logical step is reality TV.

The video, a metatextual reference to its own popularity, then hits overdrive with a series of reality television spoofs, from the "Real Housewives" to "The Bachelor."

"I'm private equity's biggest asset," Joe Baratta, the head of private equity, says in a braggadocious manner while being introduced in the faux series, "The Real Executives of Park Avenue."

Even the firm's international offices get in on the act with the London office starring in "Love Island Blackstone" and the Tokyo team competing in the infamous "Human Tetris" game-show stunt.

Back at 345 Park Avenue, Gray's executive assistant, Laurie Carlson, throws a martini into the face of Joe Lohrer, the head of US retail sales for Blackstone's private wealth group.

"Sorry, Joe, they wanted me to do something dramatic," Carlson says.

The head of Blackstone's video team, Jay Gillespie, makes an appearance as a reality-television producer and calls for another martini to try the shot again.

Perhaps the funniest bit is Schwarzman's appearance in a parody of "Keeping Up with the Kardashians," in which he is filmed awkwardly cutting a cucumber à la Kendall Jenner.

Back in the conference room, Gray tells the firm that they're going down the wrong path. A running gag in the series is that no one wants to go along with Gray's hare-brained ideas and it seems like he's finally come to his senses. Instead, he proposes another zany idea.

"Blackstone needs to go country," Gray says.

The video is capped off by the firm's second original song as executives sing and dance around the office, in Midtown traffic, and on the back of a mechanical bull.

The song's chorus, lip-synced by Schwarzman in the video, is "You can build. You can build with Blackstone," a reference to the firm's first television ad, which was released earlier this year.

The 1988 buddy-comedy action flick "Midnight Run" had an unexpected impact on the restaurant industry. While the romp about a bounty hunter transporting an accountant across the country didn't make a box-office splash, one line stuck around.

"A restaurant is a very tricky investment," the accountant, played by Charles Grodin, tells the bounty hunter, played by Robert DeNiro. DeNiro's character dreams of opening a coffee shop with his big score, but the accountant shuts him down: "More than half of them go under within the six months."

The idea that restaurants are a bad investment predates the film, but the quote lodged in people's minds. Over the past 20 years as a cook, restaurant critic, and food writer, I've heard Grodin's risk assessment quoted repeatedly, almost verbatim. But if restaurants really are a lousy investment, then why would private-equity firms be dumping billions into the sector? Data from PitchBook found that private-equity investments into fast-casual restaurants grew from $7.7 million in 2013 to $231 million in 2023 — a nearly 3,000% increase.

In 2024 alone, Blackstone purchased 1,400 Tropical Smoothie Cafes and a majority stake in Jersey Mike's — deals that gave the chains multi-billion-dollar valuations. Sycamore Partners also bought 250 Playa Bowls locations. Before its IPO in 2023, the Mediterranean eatery Cava raised nearly $750 million from private investors. Meanwhile, SoftBank Vision Fund has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into restaurant tech over the past decade.

All that cash has led to a boom in places like Chipotle, Shake Shake, and Sweetgreen. Between 2009 and 2018, the number of fast-casual restaurants in America doubled, while sales have nearly tripled. Meanwhile, the amount of money Americans spend eating out has jumped by nearly 60% since 2009. That doesn't exactly sound like a lousy investment.

The trouble is that private equity has a knack for destroying businesses. Red Lobster declared bankruptcy earlier this year after 10 years under private-equity management, Toys "R" Us famously shut down following a private-equity takeover, and even hospitals have struggled after private equity got involved. The cash infusion to wannabe chains and franchises has also made it harder for independently funded restaurants to compete for customers, real estate, and staff. When the gravy train stops, fast-casual restaurants are going to be in trouble.

To understand why private equity is pouring money into restaurants, we have to start with the appeal of the fast-casual model. In some ways, it's the golden mean of restaurants. You can charge twice as much for a meal at a fast-casual spot as you can at a fast-food joint. In Manhattan, a Burger King cheeseburger costs $3.40, whereas a Shake Shack burger will run you $7.79. But when you look at the overhead costs, there isn't much difference. Both restaurants staff a similar number of people and rely on similar ingredients. Chipotle may offer a burrito, a bowl, a quesadilla, and a salad, but it's all more or less the same ingredients: beans, corn, salsa, cheese, and basic proteins. The limited menu enables both fast-food and fast-casual restaurants to be efficient, keep costs down, and avoid losses from food waste and labor. And since fast-casual spots appear to be the nicer restaurants — with gourmet ingredients like brioche buns, healthy-sounding options, and claims of sustainable sourcing — they can charge more. If price and speed aren't priorities, many people would prefer to grab lunch at a Chipotle than at a Taco Bell.

The model also has an edge over sit-down restaurants, which have struggled in recent years. "Casual dining proper is not doing so well," Alex M. Susskind, a professor of food and beverage management at Cornell University, says. "Fast casual has provided consumers with a better meal experience that's equal to, or in some instances better than, a casual-dining restaurant, with less of a time and financial commitment."

The food is just as good, but the service is much faster. He says that's helped make the model a better investment than a place like Applebee's. Thanks in part to those higher profit margins, one restaurant analyst said it takes 18 months for a Chipotle to pay back buildout costs, compared to five years for a Cheesecake Factory.

"PE is investing money in the fast-casual market because the economics of a fast-casual concept is much better than any other type of restaurant concept," says Chris Macksey, the CEO of Prix Fixe Accounting, which specializes in hospitality. "Profit margins are anywhere from 10% to 15% as opposed to a full-service restaurant, which is 5% to 8%. Fast casual is just a far more scalable concept."

Scalability is really the brass ring. Investors in fast-casuals aren't buying restaurants; they're buying the potential growth of restaurant brands. Susskind says the boom reminds him of the late 1990s when casual-dining brands like Applebee's, TGI Fridays, and Olive Garden were taking off. He sees the recent shutdown of some of those chains — such as TGI Fridays, Red Lobster, and Smokey Bones — as a market correction for their overexpansion.

"That's what's making the investments in these businesses attractive. Because a lot of the weaker players have been weeded out," Susskind says about fast-casual restaurants. The frenzy has also been encouraged by the successful IPOs of companies like Sweetgreen in 2021 and Cava in 2023. Seeing Cava's stock grow by nearly 250% since its IPO has left investors searching for similar success.

While Sweetgreens and Dave's Hot Chickens are popping up across the country, independent restaurateurs are often left scrambling — not even for a piece of the pie, but for the crumbs.

Tracy Goh is the chef and owner of Damaran Sara, a two-year-old Malaysian restaurant in San Francisco, home of some of the most expensive commercial real estate in America. She's experienced landlords' preferences for fast-casual chains over small businesses like hers. "Especially for me, because it's my first restaurant. I don't have data to convince them that I can stay on a lease as long as they are likely to," Goh says. "They have a preference for the franchises or the big names."

A landlord's job is to generate money from their property. Their business isn't about enriching their community; it's about finding the most reliable tenants who can pay the most rent. In the restaurant real-estate space, that often means fast-food and fast-casual brands backed by major investment firms.

"If you're Chipotle or Shake Shack, you may decide to take a lease above market. You can afford it because you're privately funded," says Talia Berman, a partner at the hospitality advisory firm Friend of Chef and an expert in New York's restaurant real-estate market. "You beat out the competition because you don't care how much money you make in that space because it wasn't meant to be profitable based on the unit economics. It's part of a larger strategy."

That strategy is all about growth, she says. The primary goal of investment-backed restaurants is to expand quickly. "They're typically barreling toward an exit. So they're looking to get purchased by Nabisco or Darden or Levy or one of these huge restaurant conglomerates. And they need to show distribution — that they're operating in many states and that they have high top line," Berman says, referring to high sales volume.

A location that can gross $2 or $3 million in a year can demonstrate to a potential buyer that the eatery is successful — even if a high rent lowers the average unit profit margin. "They're thinking short term. It's a private equity mentality," says Berman.

Investment-backed restaurants also have a timing advantage over smaller shops. When a developer begins work on a new building that might lease space to a restaurant — a strip mall, food hall, or multipurpose apartment complex for instance — it's usually working on a multiyear timeline. Moshe Batalion, the vice president of national leasing for RioCan, one of Canada's largest real-estate-investment trusts, told me the firm starts thinking about who to lease to before it even breaks ground on a new property. Leases might be signed years before the space is even ready for move-in. Independent restaurateurs typically can't plan for a restaurant that won't open for two to three years.

"For independent operators, the real disadvantage is access of capital," Susskind says. "If they have access to a decent level of capital, they can grow, open more units." For chains, that's easy to do. But, he adds, "if I'm an independent, I don't know where I'm going to get $500,000 to ink a deal and build a restaurant."

When small-time restaurants get left out of the real-estate market, diners are left with a food scene that increasingly looks and tastes the same.

Thomas Crosby, the CEO of Pal's Sudden Service, a Tennessee-based chain of 31 burger shops, is all too familiar with the downsides of private equity. It's why he has eschewed outside investment. Millions of private-equity dollars might help triple the number of Pal's locations in five years — but could the chain continue to train and retest staff to remember that the perfect french fry is 3.7 inches long?

"As soon as you start taking investments or go public, you confuse your mission," Crosby says. "It becomes, what metrics can I do to wow stockholders instead of wow customers? And I think that's how so many companies get sideways. It's kind of like cars: You drive down the interstate, and you cannot hardly tell one brand from another. It becomes so homogenous." He adds: "That's what happens in the restaurant industry."

Chasing the success of another restaurant chain means everyone just tries to copy everyone else. "To please the stockholders or investors, they've got to be all things to all people," he says. By maintaining control over his operations, Crosby says, "We don't owe people money. We don't lease land. We have zero debt."

Since the early 2000s, private-equity firms started taking on a bigger role in the companies they'd invested in; these firms didn't just expect returns down the line, they began telling companies how to achieve those goals. This was good for innovation and safety, but bad for job creation and wages, with "sizable reductions in earnings per worker in the first two years post buyout," professors from Harvard and the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business wrote in a 2014 research paper.

In the long run, private equity often leaves companies worse off. In 2019, researchers found that public companies that are bought out by private-equity firms are 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as those that aren't — a finding that complicates the argument that companies like Toys "R" Us closed simply because of market forces. Similar to the casual-dining boom before it, Susskind, the Cornell professor, believes that the investment boom in the fast-casual sector will eventually lead to a bust.

Already, the graveyard of private-equity-backed restaurants is growing. BurgerFi, which has 93 locations and 51 pizza subsidiaries, primarily in Florida, received $80 million in investments just a few years ago. But despite last year's plan to update the chain's stores, menus, and technology, the investment has largely transformed into debt. The company defaulted on $51 million in credit obligations this year, and in September, it filed for bankruptcy.

Between 2015 and 2019, Mod Pizza received a total of $334 million in private-equity investments, which enabled the brand to grow to 512 locations across Western states, with over 12,000 employees. In 2019, the firm boasted of being "the fastest-growing restaurant chain in the United States for the past four years," with a plan to hit 1,000 locations in five years. The rapid expansion outpaced realistic sales growth, and earlier this year, the company closed over 40 locations.

Similarly, Rubio's Fresh Mexican Grill, founded in 1983 in California, was acquired by Mill Road Capital in 2010 for $91 million. The new ownership updated the name (to Rubio's Coastal Grill), the interior design, and the menu. Renovations at each location cost about $200,000. The chain ended up declaring bankruptcy twice: once in 2020 and again earlier this year. Though the company attributed the first filing to pandemic lockdowns, it was already struggling to maintain its growth and stay in the green prior to 2020. When it closed more restaurants earlier this year, some employees found they were unable to cash their final paychecks.

Even some of the most visible success stories of investment-based growth haven't borne fruit. Sweetgreen, "the Starbucks of salad" that was heavily backed by venture capital before its IPO, grew from one location in 2007 to 227 this year, with plans to open another 30 a year — though the company still hasn't seen a profitable year. The chain lost over $26 million last year.

At some point, the market taps out and there isn't room for more growth. Americans are already spending 42% more money on dining out than they are on groceries.

Berman says that the high volatility creates opportunities. For one, when a cash-rich restaurant bails on a retail location, it becomes available as a turnkey space, complete with HVAC, grease traps, and floor drains. Berman's company recently made a deal for a popular food brand to build out a research kitchen. It's designed to be an experiment, but they signed a 10-year lease. "Believe me, this place is not going to be around in three years, I promise you," she says. That leaves the door open for other entrepreneurs to take over.

In other words, don't get too attached to the Sweetgreen down the street. It may take longer than six months for private-equity-backed restaurants to go under, but there's a good chance your new fave won't be around in a few years.

Corey Mintz is a food reporter focusing on the intersection between food, economics, and labor. He is also the author of "The Next Supper: The End Of Restaurants As We Knew Them, And What Comes After."

• Marc Rowan on Wednesday addressed succession at the private-equity giant Apollo Global.
• The remarks come weeks after he interviewed for a Trump Cabinet position.
• He flagged several key heads of businesses and the "next generation" of talent.

After Apollo CEO Marc Rowan's whirlwind candidacy for Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, questions remain about what could become of the firm after his eventual exit. After all, he's the last remaining "cofounder" of the newest member of the S&P 500 (Rowan and Josh Harris, the firm's former COO, were granted cofounder status by then-CEO Leon Black about the time the firm went public).

When asked about succession at Wednesday's Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Rowan laid out the private-equity giant's general plan, including the members of his team who could one day succeed him.

"Part of the responsibility that we think we have in stewarding a company is to make sure that everyone has a backup, myself included," Rowan said before delving into the firm's stable of senior talent.

He highlighted "two very, very senior partners" in asset management, likely referring to Scott Kleinman and Jim Zelter. As Business Insider has previously reported, Wall Street stock analysts view the two Apollo Asset Management copresidents as Rowan's natural successors. Rowan also mentioned "two very, very senior partners" in the firm's retirement-services business, Athene. The heads of that business include Grant Kvalheim, its president, and Jim Belardi, its cofounder, CEO, and chief investment officer.

But beyond these names, Rowan said there's "another 10 in asset management and another handful in retirement services" who represent "the next generation" of Apollo executives. He suggested they could soon start playing a more pronounced role in running the company.

"I think you should look to the next 12 months as we will start really pushing forward the next generation and making the transition before we need to," Rowan said, comparing Apollo's preparations for the future to those at any large financial firm.

Rowan, the CEO of Apollo since 2021, has been the visionary behind the company's transformation from a traditional private-equity firm to one that also issues loans and retirement products. The stock is up nearly 275% since he took the helm.

Last month, he was floated as a prospect for Treasury secretary under Trump and Puck reported he flew to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the president-elect, who ultimately tapped the hedge-fund manager Scott Bessent.

Rowan made the comments just days after Apollo was picked to join the S&P 500 index starting December 23, with its stock reaching record highs. Rowan, however, warned against complacency.

"It's just important to realize all of our industry has been really successful," Rowan said, adding that some might be "tempted to take a breath, take a victory lap, or they can keep trying to win."

As BI has previously reported, Rowan has gone to great lengths to keep his employees on their toes despite the company's success, including 4 a.m. wake-up calls and bringing in speakers to scare "'the bejesus out of them."

"I want to make sure that we have a team that is not tired that wants to win because winning is going to involve changing," Rowan said Wednesday. "The shape of our firms is not going to be the same in the next five years."

• Apollo CEO Marc Rowan has transformed Apollo since he took over as CEO in 2021.
• Now, he's being floated as a potential Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump.
• Here's what could happen to Rowan's vision if he leaves and who might fill his shoes.

Since Marc Rowan took over Apollo Global Management in 2021, he's transformed the firm — sending the stock skyrocketing.

Now, the 62-year-old CEO is being floated as a potential candidate for Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump, raising questions about who could take his place, how his departure could impact the firm's ambitious growth plans, and how Apollo might benefit from the Trump White House.

Business Insider spoke to Chris Kotowski, a stock research analyst who covers Apollo for Oppenheimer. He said Rowan's five-year plan for Apollo, which includes doubling its lending business to $1.2 trillion by 2029, would proceed without him.

"I don't think that the vision changes any time soon if Rowan were to leave," Kotowkski told BI. "While Marc is in many ways the visionary leader, I think that APO is pretty institutionalized now and will get on fine without the founder," he said, referring to the company by its stock ticker.

Contenders to take over the top role, Kotowski said, include Apollo copresidents Scott Kleinman and Jim Zelter, as well as Grant Kvalheim, president of Apollo's insurance arm Athene, which has provided Apollo capital for its burgeoning lending business.

"The most likely outcome, in my view, is that the two copresidents, Scott Kleinman and Jim Zelter, would be made coCEOs," Kotowski told BI.

Representatives for Apollo didn't return a request for comment on Rowan's plans or the firm's succession plans.

Rowan is Apollo's second CEO since the firm was founded in 1990. Founder Leon Black ran the firm as CEO until he stepped down in 2021 amid a cloud over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. An independent investigation ordered by Apollo found Black had paid the convicted sex offender and financier $158 million in fees over the years for financial advice and tax planning (Black has previously told investors "I deeply regret" his involvement with Epstein).

Josh Harris, another founder, was also reportedly in the running for CEO, but Rowan got the job.

Black and Harris, owner of the Washington Commanders and other sports teams, remain large shareholders of Apollo with 7.5% and 6.0% stakes respectively. Rowan, also a founder, owns 6.1%.

Kotowski, however, ruled out any suggestion that either Black or Harris would reenter the picture should Rowan leave.

"Black and Harris are almost certainly not coming back," Kotowski said.

Representatives for both men declined to comment.

Since taking over the top job, Rowan's credit strategy has become the envy of the industry. Apollo's 2022 merger with Athene brought life insurance and retirement capital to Apollo's balance sheet, which it has leveraged to become the world's largest private lender.

This extra capital helped Apollo thrive during the last few years, stepping in to lend to corporate clients while banks and others took a back seat. Apollo has become the leader of an industry boom in private credit, which now makes up $598 billion of the firm's $733 billion of assets under management.

In a presentation to investors in October, Rowan unveiled plans to double down on the firm's lending business. More recently, he explained how the firm plans to attract more insurance dollars, which will fund the lending business, by expanding its annuity products for retirees.

Kleinman has worked at Apollo since 1996, and was named lead partner for private equity at the firm in 2009. Zelter, longtime leader of credit at Apollo, joined the company in 2006 after a long career at Citigroup where he rose to become CIO of alternative investments.

The men were named copresidents in 2018.

Kotowski called Kvalheim, president of Athene and CEO of Athene USA, a "dark horse" candidate, saying his "betting would generally be on Kleinman and Zelter."

Regardless of whether Rowan leaves or not, his vision could be helped by the Trump administration. Rowan often points to Australia's retirement model, which has been open to more private investment for decades and outperforms the American model, as a model that would boost Apollo's growth.

Trump previously opened up some 401(k) investing to private equity in 2020, and Rowan has signaled hope that it could expand further.

"Should we get access to 401(k) through broad-based reform or regulatory change or regulatory encouragement, I believe that would be upside not just for us, but for the entire industry," Rowan said earlier this month.

Of course, if Rowan were to leave, he likely would have to sell his 6.1% share in Apollo, worth nearly $6 billion, and have his assets put into a blind trust. It's unclear what that could do to the stock price, but given Apollo's recent stellar performance, it's not a bad time to divest.