• The US housing market might be much more friendly to homebuyers in 2025.
• Home sales should rise significantly as inventory grows and prices inch higher.
• Here are 10 real-estate markets that could see a surge of activity next year.

Homebuyers should stock up on champagne — and not just for New Year's Eve.

Next year may present long-awaited opportunities for aspiring property owners to trade their apartments for homes, or for families to get the upgrades they've been pining for. There's a growing sense among real-estate analysts that an extended home sales contraction will snap in 2025 as housing inventory rises and mortgage rates fall.

"Homebuyers will have more success next year," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in a statement about the firm's 2025 outlook. "The worst of the affordability challenges are over as more inventory, stable mortgage rates, and continued job and income growth pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership."

Housing market transactions will soar 7% to 12% in the year ahead to 4.5 million units before an even larger 10% to 15% jump in 2026, according to the NAR. New home sales are expected to climb 11% next year and 8% the year after.

Earlier this month, real-estate brokerage titan eXp Realty's CEO told Business Insider that sales could advance 10% in 2025, though Realtor.com called for a comparatively modest 1.5% gain.

Home sales have tanked in the years after the post-pandemic boom, so those upbeat calls may sound like wishful thinking, especially coming from realtor trade associations and brokerages.

But a home sales boom seems plausible, based on what should be healthy supply and demand.

Property supply has risen significantly in recent months from startlingly low levels, and housing starts are also in a long-term uptrend following a post-housing-bubble construction bust.

That inventory uptick will keep property price growth in check at only 2% in each of the next two years, the NAR predicted, which would translate to a median existing-home price of $410,700. And buyers may also move off the sidelines as mortgage rates drift toward 6% from around 7%, the firm added.

"If rates stabilize around 6%, about 6.2 million households can once again be able to afford median-priced homes, compared to the current constraints with rates near 7%," the NAR noted.

Slower home-price growth and lower mortgage rates will go a long way toward easing the affordability crisis that has plagued the US since the pandemic. Just over a year ago, buyers suffered through the least affordable quarter since 1985. That may soon be a distant memory.

10 hot real-estate markets

Home sales should surge across the US next year, especially in a healthy economy with solid job gains. However, researchers at the NAR expect certain cities to be far busier than others.

Buyers will flock to 10 top housing markets in 2025 due to a combination of rising home supply, manageable mortgage rates, and healthy local economies, the firm said. Healthy demand should underpin further home-price appreciation for owners in those metropolitan areas.

These soon-to-be-hot markets share several similarities, including strong property price growth since the pandemic, a sizable supply of starter homes, positive net migration, and an outsized share of out-of-state movers who are buying homes. Other factors were a market's job growth, mortgage rates, how long most homeowners had been there, and the share of millennial renters who could buy. The NAR outlined its full methodology for this exercise in a press release.

Below are the 10 real-estate markets that the NAR is bullish on next year, along with select economic and demographic considerations.

Along with each metro area is its home price growth in the last five years, starter homes as a share of total inventory, the share of homeowners who've been in place for more than 16 years and therefore may be ready to sell, net migration ratio, the share of out-of-state movers purchasing homes, job growth since late 2019, and commentary from the NAR.

• 2025 should be a relatively calm year for Airbnb and Vrbo hosts, according to a new forecast.
• Occupancy rates are expected to remain the same or improve a bit, while supply won't increase much.
• Travelers are interested in houses with six or more bedrooms that cost relatively little per night.

Airbnb and Vrbo hosts can expect more consistency in 2025, according to a new report from industry analytics firm AirDNA.

"There's going to be a bit more stability," Bram Gallagher, director of economics and forecasting at AirDNA, told Business Insider. "The market is in a more mature phase compared to where it was five, even 10 years ago."

The short-term-rental market's roller coaster kicked off in 2020, when a surge in travel brought hosts record profits. An influx of new properties opened up, leading to a correction. Hosts have been adjusting their expectations ever since, sometimes lowering prices to remain competitive.

2024 has been an improvement for hosts in some ways. Demand for short-term rentals, as measured by the number of nights booked, grew 7% compared to 2023. Occupancy rates, the number of nights a month a rental is booked, declined from February 2022 to April 2024, but have been relatively constant since.

There are early signs that the more stable climate will translate to better returns for hosts in 2025. AirDNA measures a rental's expected revenue using a measure called RevPAR — or revenue per available rental, which combines a unit's average daily rate with its region's occupancy rate. For two years the average RevPAR declined, meaning hosts could expect to bring in less revenue than the year prior. RevPAR forecasts for 2025 have turned positive.

"We're going to be seeing some gradual improvement from here on out," Gallagher said.

Here are 3 predictions AirDNA has for hosts in the new year.

1. Occupancy levels will stay about the same

Occupancy rates went through a historic whiplash over the past four years. First, a lower number of overall listings following COVID-19 lockdowns met a nationwide surge in stir-crazy travelers looking for more space, which produced some of the highest occupancy rates in industry history — hitting a peak of 61.9% in February 2022.

Then, a flood of new properties spurred by an investor boom intensified the competition for bookings, pushing occupancy rates down to 54% in April 2024.

Rates settled around the mid-50s this year, and AirDNA expects occupancy rates to stay around that mark in 2025.

"It's such a slight increase, but we're going to be holding on to the gains that we've got this year," Gallagher told BI.

2. The number of new Airbnbs and Vrbos has slowed, so there's less competition

The post-pandemic explosion of new Airbnb and Vrbo listings is likely over.

"Supply is going to continue slowing, so you're going to have fewer new competitors next year to worry about," Gallagher told BI.

First, a tight housing market eroded investor appetite for new properties. Increasing regulations on Airbnbs and Vrbos in cities across the US and abroad over the past few years have also dampened new listings.

That's good news for hosts who already manage units.

"It's good for operators that are already in the market, because they've got barriers to entry that are already in place for anyone who wants to compete with them," Gallagher noted.

3. Large homes with relatively cheap nightly rates are likely to keep growing in popularity

One surprising trend from 2024 that Gallagher said is likely to continue into the new year is the exceptional performance of a certain segment of listings: multiple-bedroom homes that large groups can book cheaply.

AirDNA found that the largest growth in both demand and available listings in 2024 was for listings with six or more bedrooms in the "budget" category, or the cheapest 20% of listings ranked by price-per-night.

Gallagher explained that the uptick in interest might be a response to the comparisons some travelers make between hotels and short-term rentals.

"People are looking at the value proposition of renting six rooms at a budget hotel, compared to getting a six-bedroom short-term rental," Gallagher said. "It's been a change to the composition of short-term rental supply."

In recent years, some loyal Airbnb guests have claimed they are opting to stay in hotels more frequently due to issues like fees and chores.

Airbnb has intensified its competition with hotels in recent months, with one executive teasing that the company will soon start offering "hotel-like" amenities.

• Trump's Interior Secretary pick illustrates bipartisan support for housing deregulation.
• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has won praise from YIMBYs and progressive urbanists.
• Bipartisan consensus on deregulation aims to boost housing supply and reduce costs.

It's hard to find a policy issue these days that doesn't deeply polarize Americans and their elected representatives. But housing — and building more of it — is a rare exception.

One of President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet appointees exemplifies this trend. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Trump's nominee for Secretary of the Interior and "energy czar," won praise from pro-housing advocates from both parties earlier this year when he made the case for denser, more walkable, mixed-use communities. As a state leader, Burgum has for years pushed for more housing construction, walkability, and density in cities like Fargo and Bismarck.

"He's been a champion of zoning reform and parking reform and transportation reform," Chuck Marohn, the founder of the urbanism nonprofit Strong Towns, told Business Insider. "He reflects a growing percentage of even Republican governors who don't think a war with cities is a good idea."

There's a growing belief across the political spectrum that skyrocketing home prices and rents are driven by a shortage of housing — and that government regulation is making it harder to address that shortage. The pro-development "Yes In My Backyard" — or "YIMBY" — movement has helped popularize this view, and it's attracted enthusiastic followers among free-market conservatives and progressive Democrats alike.

If Burgum is confirmed, he'll likely focus largely on maximizing US oil and gas production and stripping away regulations many progressives support, but he might also have a role to play in Trump's promise to deregulate and open up federal land for homebuilding.

A bipartisan consensus around making it easier to build

While builders and those in the construction industry have long complained about regulatory hurdles, their concerns weren't reflected among policymakers and the media until housing became unaffordable even for the elite, Marohn argued.

There was a turning point when college-educated millennials began struggling with the high cost of housing, while similar Americans "in prior generations, at this point in their life, would have been in homes, had some equity, not stretched so thin, starting to build some wealth," Marohn said. At the same time, the housing shortage has begun to impact communities across the country rather than just large coastal metros.

It's led to a rare cross-party alliance. "You have the intellectual elite of the progressive side of the ledger kind of merging with what I would describe as the lunch pail builder, developer on the conservative side of the equation," Marohn said.

These days, there's widespread agreement among pro-development conservatives and progressives alike that "government is the problem" and "if industry was allowed to build they would build a lot more, and that would make prices go down," said Bryan Caplan, an economics professor at George Mason University.

While Republicans use language about private property rights, free markets, and deregulation to make a case for YIMBY policies, Democrats talk about racial equity and environmental sustainability, Nolan Gray, research director for California YIMBY said.

"It's a funny situation now because you have Republicans and Democrats basically pushing for broadly the same policies but using radically different rhetoric," Gray said.

Popular deregulatory policies include legalizing accessory dwelling units, eliminating minimum lot size requirements, and rezoning to allow for mixed-use development and more housing near transit.

"In very blue places, upzoning or streamlining permit approvals may not even be called deregulation, whereas in redder places, people are more likely to lean into cutting red tape and property rights and letting the market work," Emily Hamilton, a housing researcher at the libertarian-leaning Mercatus Center at George Mason University, told Business Insider.

Burgum is an example of how a Republican governor can pursue YIMBY policy through a conservative lens, framing his support for denser housing and more walkable communities as good economic policy.

The billionaire, former software entrepreneur, oil executive, and real estate developer has championed rebuilding North Dakota's urban cores while in office. "If you want to recruit people here, you need attractive cities," Burgum said when he was first running for governor in 2016. This month, he proposed nearly $100 million in funding to encourage housing development in the state.