• Israel's potent air defenses are increasingly threatened by low-flying drones.
• Two retired Israeli generals say it needs new defenses against this "low sky" layer.
• Israel pioneered targeting air defenses with drones in a stunning victory four decades ago.

Israel's air and missile defense system is arguably the best in the world, having proven this year it can down Iranian ballistic missiles and Hamas-fired rockets. Its Iron Dome is the epitome of this success and is only one of many systems. But while these can protect Israeli cities, they have an increasingly glaring problem — they can't protect themselves from low-flying drones, two retired Israeli brigadier generals warn.

"We have to defend our air defense," wrote Eran Ortal and Ran Kochav in a blog for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Defense at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, Israel.

Ortal and Kochav fear that enemy drones could knock out air defense systems such as the vaunted Iron Dome, enabling ballistic missiles, manned aircraft and artillery rockets to strike Israel without being intercepted. "The Israeli Air Force does continue to rule the skies, but under the noses of the advanced fighter jets, a new air layer has been created."

The authors call this the "low sky" layer. "The enemy has found a loophole here. The Air Force (and, within it, the air defense corps) is required to defend against the combined and coordinated threats of missiles, unmanned aircraft systems and rockets."

Over the past year, Israel's air and missile system has achieved remarkable success against a range of projectiles launched by Iran, Hamas and other Iranian proxies, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, artillery rockets and mortar shells. For example, Israel — with the assistance of the US, Britain and other nations — reportedly intercepted 99% of some 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and large attack drones launched by Iran in April 2024.

However, Israel has struggled against small exploding drones launched by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon. More than a hundred Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed or wounded by these UAVs, including 67 who were wounded when a drone hit a building in northern Israel in October. Still, the situation is a far cry from the Ukraine war, where hordes of small drones have rendered battlefield maneuver almost impossible.

Nonetheless, Ortal and Kochav worry that Israeli air defenses were designed in the pre-drone era, when the threat to Israel came from aircraft and ballistic missiles, a critique that also applies to Western- and Russian-made systems. "This array was built over the years under the premise of Israeli air superiority. The air defense itself was not supposed to be hunted."

"The enemy is able to penetrate deep into Israel and engage the air defense system in one lane while other aircraft take advantage of the diversion and penetrate in another, more covert lane. It can identify targets and strike immediately using armed or suicide UAS. Above all, it strives to locate, endanger, and destroy key elements of the air defense system itself."

Israel relies on a multilayer defense system, with long-range Arrow interceptors targeting ballistic missiles above the Earth's atmosphere, the medium-range David's Sling handling ballistic and cruise missiles about 10 miles high, and the short-range Iron Dome stopping cruise missiles, short-range rockets and artillery and mortar shells at low altitude. All depend on the production and reloading of missiles adequate to the threat.

The problem is that these three systems can't protect each other. "The degree of mutual assistance and protection between the layers is relatively limited," Ortal and Kochav wrote. To optimize the allocation of a limited supply of interceptor missiles, "each tier was designed to deal with a specific type of missile or rocket. Iron Dome can't really assist Arrow batteries or support their missions. This limitation is equally true among the other layers."

Nor are Israel's air defenses built for survivability, such as creating decoy missile batteries and radars to protect the real ones or frequently relocating systems. "The degree of mobility, protection and hiding ability of the Israeli air defense system is inadequate. Unlike similar systems in the world, our air defense system was not built with synchronization as a critical goal."

Their solution? The creation of a fourth layer focused on point protection of the radar, missile launchers and troops that operate them against rockets and drones that have penetrated the first three layers. Air defenses must be camouflaged and should be mobile enough to change location before the enemy can target them.

Ironically, Israel itself was one of the pioneers of using drones to suppress air defenses. Stung by heavy losses from Soviet-made surface-to-air missiles in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel used drones in during the 1982 Lebanon War. By using unmanned aerial vehicles that mimicked manned aircraft, Israel lured Syrian air defense radars into coming online so they could be destroyed by anti-radiation missiles. The Israeli Air Force destroyed 29 out of 30 anti-aircraft missile batteries in the Bekaa Valley without loss and downed more than 60 Syrian aircraft.

Israel's Air Force became so dominant that the ground forces discarded their tactical anti-aircraft weapons (though the IDF recently reactivated the M61 Vulcan gatling cannon for counter-UAV defense on the northern border). Meanwhile, the IDF's air defense corps switched its focus from anti-aircraft to missile defense.

"The working assumption was, and remains to this day, that Israel's Air Force rules the skies," wrote Ortal and Kochav. "The job of air defense, therefore, is to focus on missiles and rockets. This assumption is no longer valid."

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

• A cease-fire deal aims to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict after nearly 14 months of fighting.
• The US and France will play a role in monitoring for potential violations of the deal.
• Regional experts say the US role in monitoring creates complications and challenges.

A cease-fire agreement that aims to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, marks a hopeful diplomatic moment after nearly 14 months of conflict.

However, regional security experts say a provision bringing the US — as well as France — on board to monitor potential violations could complicate matters.

During the coming weeks, the cease-fire deal requires a halt to hostilities, as well as Hezbollah fighters retreating from the Israeli border and Israeli military forces on the ground in Lebanon withdrawing.

Despite these provisions, "the underlying challenges are enormous," said Fawaz A. Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, adding that the outcome largely depends "on the will of the combatants."

Gerges said that the inclusion of the US in the cease-fire monitoring process "complicates" matters.

US troops will not be deployed in the area, but the US and France will join a pre-existing mechanism between United Nations peacekeeping forces and the Lebanese and Israeli armies, known as the tripartite mechanism.

The US will chair the group.

An uncertain neutrality

Gerges expressed doubts about how neutral the US would be in the process, pointing to Washington's track record of supporting Israel.

If the US proclaims a Hezbollah violation, Israel has assurances from the US that it can respond. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed this in a statement, saying: "If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack."

However, Gerges said he thinks it is highly unlikely the reverse — the US declaring an Israeli violation — would happen.

As such, Hezbollah likely views the inclusion of the US in the monitoring process with suspicion, he said, adding that he thinks Hezbollah believes that "the US will do Israel's bidding."

Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told BI that, in his opinion, the US is absolutely not neutral. "They are, in a sense, representing Israel, so that's why Israel trusts them."

Salem added that if Hezbollah is really going to implement its part of the agreement, then America's role is not going to be that difficult or controversial.

"The challenge would be, for the Americans, is if Hezbollah is not implementing the agreement," he said. "Then, Americans are not going to fix it. Americans are not going to send troops to fight over it."

"Then the whole thing will collapse right away and Israel will resume the war," he said.

Hassan Fadlallah, an MP in Lebanon and senior official for Hezbollah, said Tuesday that the group reserves the right to defend itself should Israel attack, according to The Guardian.

More robust than in the past

Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said in an email to BI that the enforcement mechanism appears to be "more robust" than past efforts, but there is a "high level of risk attached to the implementation of the cease-fire."

"This is now when the hard work begins to ensure that violations are not committed by either party," she said.

However, Ozcelik continued, "The question is how committed the US-led effort will be to police the agreement, to remain steadfast in its own role to ensure enforcement."

Shortly after Hamas' terror attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah began attacking Israel in solidarity.

Tensions continued to escalate in the following months, with Israel eventually targeting and killing Hezbollah's senior leadership and launching a ground invasion into Lebanon.

Since October 2023, Israel says about 60,000 of its residents have been displaced by Hezbollah's rocket attacks, while Lebanon says more than one million of its residents have had to leave their homes, and thousands have died.

The cease-fire agreement will not stop the fighting in Gaza, though President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that the US will make "another push" to broker a deal there.

• Israel agreed on a cease-fire deal aimed at ending 14 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
• "Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump," said Florida Rep. Mike Waltz.
• `The White House fears Trump will take credit for bringing an end to the Gaza war, a report said.

Donald Trump's team has claimed credit for the cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect in Lebanon on Wednesday morning.

The agreement, aimed at ending nearly 14 months of fighting, was described by President Joe Biden as "designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities."

Under the terms of the deal, Israel's military will withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period while Hezbollah moves its forces north and the Lebanese army deploys to the south.

Mike Waltz, the President-elect's national security advisor, posted on X that "everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump."

Waltz continued by saying that Trump's victory sent a "clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won't be tolerated."

According to the Associated Press, a senior Biden administration official said that Trump's team was kept informed about negotiations as they unfolded.

The official added that the incoming Trump team was not directly involved in the talks.

Richard Goldberg, an advisor at the Washington group Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told the AP that Iran —which would have had to give its approval to Hezbollah for the deal — factored Trump's presidency into the agreement.

"There's zero doubt that Iran is pulling back to regroup ahead of Trump coming into office," said Goldberg. "It's a combination of Israeli military success and Trump's election — the ayatollah has no clothes and he knows we know."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu' said in a televised speech that Israel would attack Hezbollah if it broke the terms of the cease-fire or gave any inkling of preparing to attack again.

With only 54 days in office, Biden now hopes to redouble his efforts for a cease-fire in Gaza.

"They, too, deserve an end to the fighting and displacement," he said. "The people of Gaza have been through hell. Their world has been absolutely shattered. Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much."

However, with time running out, there is fear in the White House that it will be Trump who will take credit for bringing an end to the war, according to The Times.

The World Bank Group estimates that the total damages incurred due to the war in Lebanon are around $8.5 billion, of which $5.1 billion are economic losses.

"President Trump has been crystal clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is steadfast. Hezbollah understands this is their best opportunity to get a more favorable deal done," a representative for the Trump-Vance transition team told Business Insider.

"Iran-backed proxies clearly see the clock ticking as President Trump will soon return to the White House with a strong national security team, including Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Pete Hegseth, with US intelligence led by Tulsi Gabbard and John Ratcliffe. President Trump rightfully predicted that actors in the region would make moves toward peace because of his historic victory — and that's exactly what we are seeing take place."

Representatives for Biden did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• Israel has agreed on a cease-fire deal aimed at ending nearly 14 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
• The cease-fire is expected to begin Wednesday morning local time and stop the fighting in Lebanon.
• The much-sought-after deal does not put an end to Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed on a cease-fire to end nearly 14 months of devastating fighting between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday.

Speaking from the White House, Biden said Israeli and Lebanese leadership have accepted a proposal to end the conflict between Israel and its bitter enemy, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

Biden said the cease-fire, designed to permanently end fighting across the Israel-Lebanon border, will take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The agreement does not stop the conflict in Gaza.

The deal will see Israel's military gradually withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period while Hezbollah moves its forces north and the Lebanese army deploys to the south. The White House said it will help ensure that the arrangement is fully enforced.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the country's security cabinet had approved the US-backed cease-fire arrangement in Lebanon. In a statement, the office said, "Israel appreciates the US contribution to the process, and maintains its right to act against any threat to its security."

Netanyahu outlined several reasons for the cease-fire in a televised speech earlier. He said Israel needs to "focus on the Iranian threat," give its forces a break from fighting in Lebanon, replenish stockpiles of weapons and munitions, and isolate Hamas in Gaza.

The Israeli leader said his country maintains "full freedom of military action" and will attack Hezbollah if it violates the agreement or gives any indication that it is preparing to carry out a new assault.

Shortly after Netanyahu's speech, the Israel Defense Forces said it struck several Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including in the capital, Beirut, in what is likely a last-ditch effort to degrade the militant group before fighting stops.

Earlier Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed several people and wounded dozens more.

Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, began attacking Israel in solidarity with Hamas shortly after the latter carried out its October 7, 2023, massacre. Fighting between the two enemies has steadily escalated and has displaced tens of thousands of people in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Israel dramatically increased the military pressure on Hezbollah in September by targeting the militant group in Beirut with airstrikes and killing its senior leadership. At the end of the month, Israeli forces launched a ground invasion into Lebanon — its first in nearly 20 years.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has raged in the weeks since, leaving thousands of people dead across Lebanon.