• Trump's decision to invite China's Xi Jinping to his inauguration surprised many observers.
• China is the US' main geopolitical rival, jostling for dominance across a range of trade and diplomatic issues.
• Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, balancing confrontational China policies with praise.

When President-elect Donald Trump invited China's President Xi Jinping, the leader of the US' biggest geopolitical rival, to his January inauguration on Thursday, it came as somewhat of a surprise.

The sight of Xi, China's authoritarian strongman, seated alongside top US political and military officials in DC would be incongruous, to say the least.

But Trump has long reveled in unpredictability, and has often balanced his confrontational China policies with years of lavishing praise for Xi.

Some see Trump's invitation as the latest power play designed to imbalance Xi and reset US-China relations.

"I think it's a gimmick. It would be impossible for Xi to attend without giving the sort of sign that he's almost like a vassal," Kerry Brown, an associate of the Asia Pacific Programme at Chatham House and director of the Lau China Institute at King's College, London, told Business Insider.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the invitation also reflects Trump's faith in the personal, transactional relationships he's formed with strongman leaders.

"Trump's invitation reflects his desire to rebuild a rapport with President Xi, which he believes will be the decisive dynamic in shaping US-China relations during his second administration," Wyne told BI.

Reports on Thursday said that Xi would not attend the inauguration, and would instead send a top government official as envoy as an apparent gesture of goodwill.

If he did attend, it could be seen as an act of tribute to the democratic system China has sought to challenge, and the power of a state whose dominance it seeks to corrode.

"Going to Trump's inauguration makes Xi Jinping look like a supplicant to Trump, because this is a ceremony honoring Trump," Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, told ABC News.

Thomas added: "Xi would be attending to honor Trump's victory, I don't think that sits well with Xi's self-image and his political reputation in China as a nationalist strongman."

A tough road ahead

Even so, Trump's invitation is likely an audacious opening gambit as he eyes new discussions with Xi, and China is fortifying itself diplomatically and economically in anticipation, analysts told Reuters.

Trump has long championed policies that aggressively confront China, and is threatening to ratchet up tariffs further when he takes office again next year.

Future negotiations will likely be tough, with the US and China at loggerheads over a range of trade and diplomatic issues.

China has backed Russia in its war with Ukraine, is forming closer ties with an axis of authoritarian powers, and is menacing Taiwan.

"Trump is performing politics," said Brown. "This is going to be a hard, difficult, technical negotiation with the Chinese if they're going to get the things they want: better market access, better balance."

China is also in a different position to when Trump first took office in 2017. Back then, the US and Chinese economies were highly interlinked.

Although close ties remain, partly in response to Trump's first-term tariffs China has moved to diversify its exports away from the US and has spent billions on research and development.

It has become the world leader in solar-panel and electric-vehicle technologies, as well as quantum computing and AI.

The US-China rivalry is also intensifying over sophisticated chip and satellite technologies, as well as rare Earth metals.

This month, China launched an antimonopoly probe into US chip giant Nvidia, and it is imposing restrictions on the export of drone parts vital for Ukraine in combatting Russia's invasion.

"It's all part of what's going to be a great, big performance next year about Trump trying to say that he's going to deliver this fantastic new deal with China. And the Chinese are well prepared for this," said Brown.

Analysts told Bloomberg that the Nvidia probe and other trade moves are bargaining chips China can use in future discussions.

All of this makes it highly unlikely that Xi will want to come to the US to clap as Trump is sworn in as president.