Several economic experts panned New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s "inflation refunds" she plans to distribute to qualifying New Yorkers as part of her 2025 State of the State initiative.

Last week, Hochul proposed $3 billion in direct payments to about half of the Empire State’s 19 million residents: $300 for single taxpayers making up to $150,000 per year and $500 for joint filers making twice that.

"Because of inflation, New York has generated unprecedented revenues through the sales tax — now, we're returning that cash back to middle class families," Hochul said in a statement announcing the proposal.

However, some economists and economic experts, like Andy Puzder, said the move simply "redistributes [money] to people so the people will vote for them."

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"If you really wanted to help everybody, and if you have an excess of sales taxes, then you reduce the sales tax," added Puzder, the former CEO of the parent company of Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr., CKE Restaurants. "It’s not difficult math," he added.

Puzder is a lecturer on economics and a senior public policy fellow at Pepperdine University who was considered for Labor secretary in the first Trump administration.

In his work at CKE Restaurants, Puzder increased the average franchise sales volume for the then-struggling Hardee’s from $715,000 in 2001 to more than $1 million a decade later.

The U.S. economy has been in trouble because of the same types of policies forwarded by Hochul and other tax-and-spend Democrats, he said – adding that President Biden’s American Rescue Plan was what lit the fuse on nationwide inflation in the first place.

"If you reduce taxes, fewer people will also be leaving the state," he added, as New York shed another population-based House seat and electoral vote in the decennial census.

Puzder noted a few top Democrats have warned their own leaders against such "refunds" from the government, citing former President Bill Clinton’s Treasury chief Lawrence Summers cautioning the Biden administration that similar handouts in 2021 would drive up inflation.

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Former Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va., an economist and currently vice provost of Liberty University in Lynchburg, cited Nobel laureate Milton Friedman’s assertion that inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

Therefore, he said, in Hochul’s case, the better fix for inflation lies not in Albany, but in Manhattan.

"Inflation has to do with how much money the Federal Reserve prints. If she wants to give people money back from the government, that’s fine – but she’s in a prominent position in New York in that the Fed has one of its chief desks there and if you want to solve inflation, you go to the Federal Reserve."

He added that $500 for a family is a "trivial, symbolic move against a massive, hidden tax," noting that with an estimated 22% real-inflation rate over the past four years, $500 in 2020 purchasing power is only worth $390.

Brat added that Democrats’ penchant for such "refunds" put Republicans at a consistent political disadvantage because the GOP essentially has to "compete against Santa Claus" handing out presents versus the right warning the public to "eat their spinach."

Economist EJ Antoni echoed some of the sentiment about the refunds being inflationary themselves, saying that what got the U.S. into inflation in the first place was too much government spending.

"So this idea that we're going to add on another government expenditure, you're essentially just creating a feedback loop," Antoni said.

"Now, that's not to say that New York State alone is going to cause inflation. Inflation comes from the federal government, because the federal government is the one that can't create money, can print money out of nothing. But at the same time, you're still talking about increasing the cost of living for New Yorkers, just in a different way," he said.

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"Any additional government spending is going to have to be paid for one way or another."

Antoni added he could see such payments to the public "snowballing" into more and more payments down the line, which in turn would lead to higher taxes being needed to fund the handouts.

Antoni also said Hochul’s proposal differs from then-President Donald Trump’s COVID-era checks, because the latter came during a time people needed "money to survive" amid stay-at-home orders and various shutdowns of job sectors.

"If the issue is that we need to reduce people's cost of living, the best way to do that would just be to reduce their taxes, not have another payment by the government," he said.

Fox News Digital also reached out to the left-leaning Brookings Institution for a further diverse viewpoint on Hochul’s move.

Fox News Digital also reached out to Hochul's office for comment but did not receive a response by press time. 

Small businesses are optimistic about revenue boosts in 2025, when President-elect Donald Trump will kick off his second administration, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce report obtained by Fox News Digital shows. 

The latest Small Business Index report by MetLife and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce released Monday morning found that seven in 10 small businesses, at 72%, reported they anticipate their revenues to increase next year. Last year, only 65% of businesses reported they anticipated revenue to increase, the data show. 

"The growing optimism among small business owners since the beginning of the year is a positive sign as we move into 2025 and potentially points to increasing opportunities in the new year," Bradd Chignoli, executive vice president and head of Regional Business & Workforce Engagement at MetLife, said in a press release provided to Fox Digital. "As more and more employers look to increase investment and staff size, it is important to take advantage of the resources available to them, such as voluntary benefits, which can help strengthen their company’s culture and help attract and retain new talent." 

The Small Business Index is a collaboration between MetLife and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that measures small business owners’ and leaders’ expectations. The survey released Monday was conducted between Oct. 7 – 21, before the election's results, and included responses from 750 small business owners and operators. 

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The majority of business owners, at 70%, reported that holiday shopping is vital to their overall profit, which is slightly down from 2022’s Q4 report that found 79% of business owners reported the same.

The report found that inflation woes are small business owners’ top concern – as it has been for the last two years, according to the report. This year, however, an increase of business owners reported that both the U.S. economy and their local economies are healthier than they were this time last year. 

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Thirty-two percent of business owners reported the U.S. economy is in better shape than 2023, up from 25% last year, and 38% reported their local economies are healthier than last year, when 30% reported the same. 

The survey also found that the majority of small business owners, at 51%, reported that red tape – including licensing, certification, and permit requirements – makes it harder for them to grow their operations. While 47% of respondents reported that they spend too much time and energy on complying with regulatory requirements. 

​​"Too many regulations cause big headaches for small businesses, even if they feel confident in their ability to comply or have the means to outsource compliance tasks," said Tom Sullivan, Vice President of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "This quarter’s survey shows these requirements are complex, time-consuming, and often prevent small business owners from focusing on running and growing their businesses."

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About 39% of respondents reported that in the last six months alone, they have increased their time and resources on complying with regulations alone, which is up from 33% reporting the same in the last quarter. Compliance with ​​taxes, bookkeeping, payroll and licensing ate up a "​​great deal or fair amount" of time for business owners, according to the report. 

The overall index score for this quarter sits at 69.1, a slight dip from last quarter’s score of 71.2, which was attributed to business owners’ reporting an increase in time and resources on regulation compliance. 

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Small businesses have been on edge in recent years as inflation spiraled and choked spenders’ pocketbooks. Amid the highly-anticipated election cycle this year, Trump campaigned, in part, on lowering costs for Americans at check-out lines. Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris at the ballot box last month, securing 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226.

"I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low, low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed," Trump said from the campaign trail in September. "My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth." 

"I took care of our economy like I would take care of my own company in every decision. I asked, will I create jobs here, or will I be sending jobs overseas? Will it make America richer and stronger, or will it make our country weaker and poorer?" Trump asked. "I always put America first every single time. And when our country was hit by the China virus, we saved the economy. We rescued tens of millions of jobs." 

President Biden on Tuesday touted that President-elect Trump will inherit the "strongest economy in modern history" when he takes office in January – even as Americans continue to struggle to afford homes and groceries from inflation.

Biden delivered remarks about his "middle-out, bottom-up" economic approach at the Brookings Institution, a public policy think tank in Washington, D.C., claiming there are "a number of quotes" from commentators describing his administration’s economy as strong.

"President Trump has received the strongest economy in modern history, which is the envy of the world," Biden said.

While inflation has eased significantly since its peak in 2022, grocery prices remain substantially higher than they did before the COVID pandemic swept the globe nearly five years ago.

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According to the most recent Consumer Price Index inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans are spending 22% more on groceries in comparison to when Biden took office nearly four years ago.

Voters said the economy was far and away the top issue facing the country – with 40% saying inflation was the single most important factor in their vote – followed distantly by immigration and abortion, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2024 election.

Even Trump noted during an interview with NBC News’ "Meet the Press" on Sunday that his White House victory last month came down to the economy.

"I won on the border, and I won on groceries," the president-elect said.

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Meanwhile, Biden held to his belief that Trump’s potential tariff plan is "a major mistake."

"By all accounts, the incoming administration is determined to return the country to another round of trickle-down economics and another tax cut for the very wealthy," Biden said. "That will not be paid for, or if paid for, is going to have a real cost, once again causing massive deficits or significant cuts in basic programs." 

When asked in his latest interview if he could guarantee that his tariffs wouldn't force Americans to pay more for items, Trump answered, "I can’t guarantee anything."

Fox News Digital’s Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

President-elect Trump says his White House victory last month comes down to two things.

"I won on the border, and I won on groceries," the president-elect said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press."

Trump then drilled down on the high grocery prices that millions of Americans are paying as a key reason for his convincing White House victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

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"Very simple word, groceries. Like almost – you know, who uses the word? I started using the word – the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that," Trump emphasized in his interview, which was recorded on Friday and broadcast on Sunday.

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While inflation has eased significantly since its peak in 2022, grocery prices remain substantially higher than they did before the COVID pandemic swept the globe nearly five years ago.

According to the most recent Consumer Price Index inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans are dishing out 22% more for groceries in comparison to what they paid when President Biden took office nearly four years ago.

And voters' frustrations over high grocery prices, as well as other impacts from inflation, benefited Trump as he ran to win back the White House.

Voters said the economy was far and away the top issue facing the country, followed distantly by immigration and abortion, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis of the 2024 election.

And 40% said inflation was the single most important factor in their vote, and they backed Trump by almost two-to-one, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis, which was a survey of more than 110,000 voters and 18,000 nonvoters nationwide. An AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 registered voters, had similar findings.

On the presidential campaign trail, Trump railed against the Biden/Harris economy and promised to bring down prices.

 "Grocery prices have skyrocketed," Trump said during an August news conference, as he stood by tables stocked with packaged foods.

"When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one," he vowed.

And in his interview on "Meet the Press," Trump pledged that "we’re going to bring those prices way down."

But Trump, in the interview, reiterated that he would follow through on his campaign vow to levy large tariffs on imports from the nation's major trading partners.

During the presidential campaign, Harris argued that Trump's across-the-board tariffs, if implemented, would increase prices on many goods and amounted to a "a sales tax on the American people."

Tariffs are taxes that governments place on goods being imported or exported. They can raise the cost of imported products, making local products more attractive to buy.

Asked in his latest interview if he could guarantee that his tariffs wouldn't force Americans to pay more for items, Trump answered, "I can’t guarantee anything."

Business magnate Elon Musk, who has been sounding the alarm about America's gargantuan, ever-expanding national debt, claimed that many people are unaware of the problem.

"A significant % of people don’t even know that there is such a thing as a national debt!" Musk declared in a post on X.

"Those that do often don’t know how big it is or that our interest payments now exceed what we spend on our military. Only a small % understand that government overspending causes inflation," he added.

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The national debt has soared past $36 trillion.

"America is going bankrupt fast," Musk warned in another post.

"The excess government spending is what causes inflation! ALL government spending is taxation. This is a very important concept to appreciate. It is either direct taxation, like income tax, or indirect via inflation due to increasing the money supply," he asserted in a tweet earlier this month.

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In another post, Musk said, "If we don't tackle the national debt, all tax revenue will go to paying interest and there will be nothing left for anything else."

If the issue isn't addressed "the dollar will be worth nothing," Musk warned in a tweet earlier this year.

President-elect Trump tapped Musk and former GOP presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to helm the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an effort meant to root out government waste.

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Trump said in a statement that DOGE "will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before."

In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Musk and Ramaswamy noted that they will work "as outside volunteers, not federal officials or employees."

Outgoing Independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin slammed some of the advice President Biden received during his time in office, arguing that the guidance created blindspots for the president on inflation, immigration and Afghanistan.

Appearing on CBS’s "The Takeout" podcast on Friday, Manchin recounted how he tried to convince Biden to work across the aisle on the American Rescue Plan and how he warned about the dangers of inflation if Democrats went through with plans to extend unemployment benefits through October 2021, but was ignored thanks to the advice of 17 Nobel laureates.

"I warned of that, and I got criticized, as you recall, they told me they had 17 Nobel laureates," Manchin said, later arguing that they were "17 educated idiots" that were telling Biden "what you want to hear because you paid them."

Manchin, who in the early days of Biden’s administration was still part of the Democratic Party, played a critical role in determining how much of the new president’s agenda would make its way through the Senate. 

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Democrats held a slim majority in the upper chamber throughout Biden’s term and depended on the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris to pass the administration’s agenda, meaning the moderate West Virginia senator’s cooperation was key in getting many items passed.

Manchin would eventually decide not to run for re-election and leave the Democratic Party altogether after a decades-long political career in the party, arguing that he had to be "true" to himself.

"To stay true to myself and remain committed to put country before party, I have decided to register as an independent with no party affiliation and continue to fight for America’s sensible majority," Manchin said in a May 2024 announcement.

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During his interview with CBS, Manchin noted that Congress had worked in a bipartisan manner with the Trump administration to send out stimulus checks in the early days of pandemic shutdowns, arguing that lawmakers had "erred" on the side of action but later came to realize that pumping so much money into the economy "was a mistake."

Nevertheless, Manchin recalled that Biden went immediately to the budget reconciliation process to attempt to pass the American Rescue Plan through the Senate, something the then-Democratic senator resisted.

"Remember when I stopped and it shut down for about eight or 10 hours? That’s because they were extending unemployment benefits and we had a vaccine that worked. And I told him then, I said, ‘You’ve got a vaccine that’s working, you’ve got people that have got money because we sent a check to everybody,’" Manchin said, adding that he warned that after months of lockdowns and several rounds of stimulus, American spending was likely to inflate the economy.

"You’ve got inflation coming at you hard when you do this, and now you’re still keeping people out of the workforce because you’re going to give them an extension clear up until October 2021 of unemployment benefits, and they can’t go back and can’t be threatened to lose their unemployment benefits," Manchin said. "You’ve got a perfect storm hitting you."

Opponents of a defeated California ballot measure to raise the state's minimum wage said voters made the right call in pushing back against a proposal that would otherwise have resulted in higher inflation. 

Proposition 32, which would have raised California's minimum wage to $18 per hour, was narrowly beaten back as only 49.2% of voters supported the proposed hike. The current minimum wage in the state is $16 per hour.

Fast-food restaurants with 60 or more locations are already mandated to pay their employees at least $20 per hour.

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"Basic economics shows that raising the minimum wage ultimately drives up inflation and unemployment, predictably hurting workers and families," Republican State Sen. Brian Jones, the upper chamber's minority leader, told Fox News Digital. "More inflation and higher costs are the last things we need right now. Californians made the right call to reject Prop 32 and protect financial stability."

Business groups, including the California Chamber of Commerce, California Restaurant Association and California Grocers Association opposed the measure, saying high labor costs would hurt small businesses. 

Chamber of Commerce CEO Jennifer Barrera told The Associated Press that the economy and personal costs were top of mind in the election, a message that resonated with the voters.

John Kabateck, the California director for the National Federation of Independent Business, said minimum wage hikes amid a period of inflation would have added to the current economic woes many residents already face. 

"At the end of the day, this really came down to affordability for Californians already struggling," Kabateck told Fox News Digital. "People realized a higher minimum wage was not going to make their bad situation that much better."

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Prop 32 was authored by startup entrepreneur Joseph Sanberg, an anti-poverty advocate and major investor in Blue Apron, the ingredient-and-recipe meal kit company.

"The time is now, because the pandemic has heightened the people’s understanding of the realities so many Californians face," Sanberg said in his official ballot argument. "Cost of living is rising faster and faster... but wages haven’t increased commensurately."

Fox News Digital has reached out to Sanberg and various trade groups. 

Sanberg was heavily involved in spearheading Prop 32.

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Jones called the measure a failed "publicity stunt" hatched by Sanberg that was part of "his pattern of misleading Californians."

"Known for posing as an environmentalist while facing scrutiny for dubious claims, Sanberg shifted tactics by pushing a minimum wage hike and falsely branding himself as a champion of the working class," he said. "Californians saw through his deception and rightly rejected his Prop 32 that would have decimated our economy."

Kabateck said policymakers in Sacremento didn't seem to be in touch with small business owners and voters struggling to get by.  

"At the end of the day, who doesn't want a few dollars in their pocket? But at what cost?" he said.