Tesla bull Dan Ives on Tuesday proposed a merger even more colorful than his clothes, when he sketched out a scenario whereby the carmaker could buy xAI.
Why it matters: This could create a viable rival to OpenAI and Big Tech incumbents like Meta and Microsoft, while combining two crown jewels of Elon Musk's empire.
Zoom in: Ives wrote on X that Musk first would need to get 25% voting control of Tesla, and that the revised pay package would need to include guardrails on his political activities and the amount of time he spends running Tesla.
Ives also tells Axios that the combined company would need to raise between $15 billion and $20 billion to insulate Tesla's balance sheet from xAI's massive cash burn.
He also believes Musk would have enough voting power to get approval from xAI, or at least enough xAI investor support.
What they're saying: "Adding Tesla's data to xAI would create a formidable AI play ... a frontrunner when it comes to AI and not launching from the backseat," Ives explains. "There obviously are some concerns, but the benefits far outweigh the risks."
Musk, in an X reply to Ives, simply said: "Shut up, Dan."
The bottom line: Musk has a vocal distaste for the public markets, having taken Twitter private and tried to do the same with Tesla.
So it would be odd for him to open xAI to such scrutiny — unless he ultimately agrees with Ives that it's his best path for beating rival Sam Altman.
The fine print in President Trump's recently signed "big, beautiful bill" could restrict savings for some tipped workers.
Why it matters: Trump made "no taxes on tips" a centerpiece of his presidential campaign — and while a provision in the new law honors that idea on the surface, it doesn't eliminate all taxes.
Here's what to know:
How does the "big, beautiful bill" impact tipped workers?
State of play: A qualifying worker's first $25,000 in tips are exempt from income taxes.
Tipped workers will still pay 7.65% in payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare.
The law shouts out food service and cosmetics industry workers specifically, stressing that the tax exemption will apply "only to certain lines of business."
By the numbers: The tax deduction would decrease once a worker's income hits $150,000 — decreasing further at $300,000.
Tipped workers filing a joint return with spouses would also see less of a deduction.
The law also requires workers to provide their Social Security numbers — as well as any spouses — making undocumented workers ineligible for the tax break.
The law will apply to the current tax year, including tips already accrued.
How many tipped workers are there?
About four million people in the U.S. earned tips in 2023, according to Yale University's Budget Lab. That's 2.5% of all workers.
Two-thirds of restaurant workers who work for tips earn so little that they don't pay federal income taxes, per a 2024 report parsing data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey.
Workers are currently taxed on tips, which puts an added financial strain on a demographic that tends to be lower income. The median weekly wage for tipped occupations in 2023 was $538, versus $1,000 for non-tipped workers, per the Budget Lab.
What did Trump promise tipped workers on the campaign trail?
"No tax on tips" began as a promise Trump made during a 2024 campaign stop in Nevada.
It has since become a top talking point for Republicans as they've promoted their megabill.
The intrigue: "No tax on tips" has emerged as a rare bipartisan, populist policy.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris adopted the promise as a part of her own presidential campaign two months after Trump did.
In May, the Senate passed a separate "No Tax on Tips Act" in a surprise move, which no lawmakers — Republican or Democrat — objected to.
Will no taxes on tips help tipped workers?
To help restaurant workers, raising or abolishing the subminimum wage might be more effective than cutting taxes most of them don't pay, Axios' Emily Peck wrote last year.
Eliminating the income tax on tips would primarily help higher-earning tipped workers.
Elon Musk's AI platform Grok faced backlash Tuesday for repeated use of an antisemitic phrase and other offensive posts in its replies on X.
The big picture: Musk has recently expressed frustration with Grok's way of answering questions and suggested in June that he would retrain the AI platform. It's unclear how well that's going.
Driving the news: Multiple X users shared posts Tuesday of Grok using the phrase "every damn time" in its replies — a phrase that, in response to Jewish surnames, has been seen as an antisemitic meme.
When users followed up with questions about what the AI bot meant by that phrase, Grok said in one reply:
"You know the type" means Jewish surnames, as in the "every damn time" meme spotting how often folks with them pop up in extreme anti-white activism.
Grok was aware of his posts and the negative reactions, telling another user: "Truth-seeking means owning slip-ups."
Flashback: Grok previously drew criticism in May after it placed comments about "white genocide" in South Africa to unrelated conversations, which xAI later blamed on an "unauthorized change" in the system.
In June, Musk said Grok would undergo a rewrite and the X owner put out a call for people to suggest things that are "divisive facts." He pointed to items that "politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true."
Suggestions included Holocaust denialism and conspiracy theories.
Yes, but: Despite Musk's proposal for a rewrite, Grok perpetuated an antisemitic trope earlier this month by saying that Jewish people "dominate leadership" in Hollywood studios.
"Critics substantiate that this overrepresentation influences content with progressive ideologies, including anti-traditional and diversity-focused themes some view as subversive," the AI platform wrote on July 5.
What they're saying: Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, pointed out that Grok has used to phrase "every damn time" hundreds of times and this is not new behavior for the AI bot.
"The prompts Musk put in a few days ago turned it into an antisemitism machine," he wrote.
An xAI representative did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Tuesday evening.
What to watch: Musk said Monday that Grok's fourth iteration will be released on Wednesday, July 9.
Our thought bubble: Grok will no doubt keep getting tweaks and revisions that might mitigate its most outrageous posts, but the larger problem is one Musk has intentionally chosen to create.
After purchasing Twitter, now X, he changed policies to tolerate a wide range of extremist views, particularly on the right, that drove away many of the platform's users who were made uncomfortable by open avowals of Nazi allegiance and other forms of hate speech.
Then Musk trained his new AI model, Grok, on X's content.
No one should be surprised that the resulting chatbot would readily slur Jews — it's just reflecting X's atmosphere back at us.
Texas officials said Tuesday that 161 people remain missing in Kerr County following the deadly Fourth of July flooding, as they pledged to find every person.
The big picture: A massive recovery effort continues in Kerr County, about an hour's drive northwest of San Antonio.
The latest: Gov. Greg Abbott said that 94 people diedas a result of catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe River last Friday, and another 15 people died in flooding elsewhere in Texas, bringing the death toll to at least 109.
Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said at a separate press conference that 30 children were among the dead.
Five girls and a counselor from Camp Mystic remain missing, the officials said.
State of play: Hundreds of rescuers are still searching for bodies. State authorities have rescued 444 people so far.
Abbott and other state officials flew over Kerrville Tuesday to survey the damage.
Catch up quick: The flooding happened early Friday. Meteorologists say forecasting models struggled to pinpoint where and when the heaviest rain would fall, and there is no warning system in Kerr County.
What they're saying: "We won't stop until every last body is recovered, alive or not," Freeman Martin, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety, said at an afternoon press conference.
There are 258 DPS personnel working in Kerrville, he added.
What's next: Abbott said that a special session of the Texas Legislature slated to begin later this month will focus on making the communities hit by the flooding "more resilient" and give them "the resources they need." He added that the House and Senate could begin flood investigations as soon as later this week.
"We're going to have in place the systems that are needed to prevent deadly flooding events like this in the future," Abbott said.
Republicans are pushing senators to more aggressively sell the "big, beautiful bill" amid concerns that the party's lawmakers aren't doing enough to promote its most popular provisions.
Why it matters: Republicans acknowledge that their prospects in next year's midterm elections will hinge on making the bill palatable to voters. Polls suggest it currently isn't.
Zoom out: The National Republican Senatorial Committee is planning to send a memo to Senate GOP chiefs of staff and communications officials on Tuesday pushing them to more forcefully highlight popular provisions such as tax cuts on tips, overtime pay and Social Security.
The NRSC says senators and their staff "must immediately get to work promoting its most popular provisions in every corner of their states," and that the month-long August recess is a "critical opportunity" to sell Trump's megabill.
"With the passage and signing of OBBB, Senate Republicans have delivered on the America First promises President Trump campaigned on. Now, senators and staff need to do their part to ensure every voter knows it," the NRSC says in the memo.
"Communicating the widely popular provisions within the OBBB effectively will be essential to turning out the coalition Republicans need to win in next year's midterm election," the committee adds.
Zoom in: Republican strategists have for months been distributing to candidates survey data showing that parts of the bill poll very well.
But there is growing frustration within some corners of the party that members haven't been vocal enough in highlighting them.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 22-24 showed 55% of voters disapproved of the bill, and a Fox News survey from earlier in the month indicated that 59% opposed it.
Democrats have said they plan to make the legislation a cornerstone of their 2026 strategy.
Passengers no longer need to take their footwear off while going through Transportation Safety Administration checkpoints — effective immediately, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said on Tuesday.
The big picture: This is the first time in 19 years that general passengers can skip the TSA's footwear removal policy.
Driving the news: "Our security technology has changed dramatically. It's evolved. TSA has changed," Noem said during a briefing at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington, D.C.
"We have a multilayered, whole-of-government approach now to security and to the environment that people anticipate and experience when they come into an airport that has been honed and it's been hardened."
Noem said streamlining the security process was particularly needed for the expected increase in the U.S. of travelers and visitors for the World Cup championships, and the 2028 Olympics.
Zoom out: Airport wait times average about 27 minutes, according to a 2024 study. Eliminating the policy could shave some time off the security process.
Passengers willing to pay $78 every five years for TSA PreCheck have been able to keep their shoes on since 2006, and have an average wait time of less than 10 minutes.
What they're saying: A spokesperson told Axios on Tuesday that "TSA and DHS are always exploring new and innovative ways to enhance the passenger experience and our strong security posture."
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared to confirm the move in a post on X, writing, "Big news from @DHSgov," in response to a post reporting the rule change.
Zoom in: The policy change has been expected for some time, with select airports rolling out shoe-scanning technology in previous years.
Travel newsletter Gate Access first reported the news and said the new rule would not apply to passengers without a REAL ID.
However, Noem said it is "not going to be specifically required" that non-Real ID holders remove their shoes.
Flashback: Three months after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, passenger Richard Reid attempted to detonate explosives hidden in his sneakers on an American Airlines flight. Five years later in 2006, TSA officials implemented the shoes-off policy, citing "a continuing threat."
Reid's fellow passengers thwarted his plan, and the plane landed safely in Boston.
Editor's note: This story has been corrected to state that TSA's shoes-off policy was implemented in 2006 (not 2001), and thatit's the first time in 19 years (not over 20) that general passengers can skip removing their shoes.
Members of the National Education Association (NEA), the nation's largest teachers' union, have voted to sever ties with the civil rights group Anti-Defamation League (ADL) over the war in Gaza.
Why it matters: The member-backed measure calls for the union to no longer use ADL material on antisemitism and Holocaust education, nor will it promote other ADL statistics or programs.
Driving the news: The proposal was adopted by NEA delegates at the 2025 Representative Assembly this week in Portland, Oregon.
However, because it was determined to be a "sanction item," it is an automatic referral to the NEA Executive Committee, an NEA spokesperson, Staci Maiers, told Axios.
"Therefore, the official action on (proposal) is adopted and referred to committee," Maiers said.
Zoom in: According to the proposal text, "NEA will not use, endorse, or publicize any materials from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), such as its curricular materials or its statistics."
In addition, "NEA will not participate in ADL programs or publicize ADL professional development offerings," the measure read.
Context: The ADL has provided public schools with materials about the Holocaust, anti-hate training and antisemitism for four decades.
It also provides an annual report on antisemitism in the U.S., which can also be shared in schools.
Caveat: If the NEA Executive Committee adopts the ADL ban, schools can still use ADL material.
Yes, but: It sets up potential future showdowns with local NEA unions and school districts if the war in Gaza continues.
What they're saying: "With antisemitism at record high levels, it is profoundly disturbing that a group of NEA activists would brazenly attempt to further isolate their Jewish colleagues and push a radical, antisemitic agenda on students," an ADL spokesperson told Axios in a statement.
"We will not be cowed for supporting Israel, and we will not be deterred from our work reaching millions of students with educational programs every year."
The ADL said it will continue to call out antisemitism and prioritize supporting Jewish students and educators "when they are attacked and scapegoated."
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation's largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, said it welcomed the NEA vote due to concerns over ADL's "anti-Palestinian bias."
"This principled move is a significant step toward fostering respect for the rights and dignity of all students in public schools, who must receive an education without facing biased, politically-driven agendas," CAIR said.
Between the lines: It is the latest episode of historic liberal-leaning groups and unions at odds over the war in Gaza, support for Israel and interpretations of antisemitism.
Earlier this year, a union representing over 30,000 faculty and staff at the City University of New York (CUNY) passed a resolution to divest its union funds from Israeli companies and government bonds.
Last year, the San Francisco Unified School District held mandatory antisemitism training for staff at four high schools, prompting the teachers' union, United Educators of San Francisco, to state that it would support any educator who chose to opt out of the mandatory training.
What we're watching: The NEA Executive Committee will have a final say on the measure.
How it votes could give a preview of boiling tensions between Democratic-leaning unions and some Jewish voters, who are largely Democrats, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Christmas shoppers got a gift of sorts from the White House this week when the president pushed the tariff pause to August 1.
Why it matters: The shift should give retailers more time to stockpile most goods ahead of the holiday season, potentially pushing some tariff-related price increases to next year.
Catch up quick: The tariff pause was set by the White House last spring — after Trump's Liberation Day hikes were announced — and was supposed to be lifted Wednesday.
This week the White House extended the deadline, sending trading partners letters with an August 1 target.
After initially saying it wasn't a hard deadline, Trump on Tuesday said he means it and there will be no extensions.
Zoom out: If higher rates do go into effect August 1, it's likely that consumers won't feel a difference until the new year, writes Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Wealth Management, in a note Monday.
How it works: Goods en route to the U.S. as late as August 1 should be exempt from additional tariffs, Donovan explains.
Since it can take as many as six weeks to move ships across the Pacific, that means some items could arrive as late as mid-September and still be tariffed at the lower rate.
At the same time, retailers stockpile ahead of the Christmas season — and have been bringing forward inventory to avoid higher tariffs.
The upshot is, most of the stuff on shelves for Christmas will have arrived before the new deadline.
Reality check: Some items can't be stockpiled, and consumers would feel those price increases sooner.
There are also baseline 10% levies already in place, so some prices will have already moved somewhat.
The other side: "The Administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market," spokesman Kush Desai said in an email to Axios.
He also pointed out that President Trump on Tuesday said he'd never moved the deadline.
Flashback: In August 2019, Trump delayed tariffs on Chinese imports, telling reporters "We're doing this for the Christmas season... Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers."
It was the one time Trump acknowledged tariff increases could pass through to the consumer, Chad Brown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Axios earlier this year.
Ultimately, the U.S. got a trade deal with China and didn't impose increased tariffs on the consumer-facing products that were under threat, like iPhones, video game consoles, etc.
The intrigue: Prices can rise absent tariffs. Companies stockpiling goods in warehouses will incur extra warehousing costs, writes Donovan.
And all this talk about tariffs creates an opportunity for firms to raise prices anyway — which is what people are expecting.
"Normal consumers are less likely to follow what is happening, and be more willing to accept price increases as being due to trade taxes, even if those taxes have been withdrawn," he notes.
What to watch: "By January these effects will have gone," Donovan writes in an email to Axios.
By then "the pre-tax increase inventory will have been sold and consumer prices will rise to reflect the additional trade taxes."
The bottom line: The tariff situation is a mess, but holiday shopping may be spared.
Why it matters: The threats from bad actors harnessing quickly evolving voice-cloning technology stretch beyond the typical "grandparent scam," with a string of high-profile incidents targeting or impersonating government officials.
The hoax follows a May FBI warning about a text and voice messaging campaign to impersonate senior U.S. officials that targeted many other current and former senior government officials and their contacts.
Driving the news: U.S. authorities don't know who is behind the campaign, in which an imposter claiming to be Rubio reportedly contacted three foreign ministers, a member of Congress and a governor, the Washington Post first reported.
The scam used a Signal account with the display name "[email protected]," according to a State Department cable obtained by multiple outlets, in an attempt to contact powerful officials "with the goal of gaining access to information or accounts."
A senior State Department official told Axios in a statement that it is aware of the incident and is currently investigating.
"The Department takes seriously its responsibility to safeguard its information and continuously takes steps to improve the department's cybersecurity posture to prevent future incidents," the official said but declined to offer further details.
Context: With just seconds of audio, AI voice-cloning tools can copy a voice that's virtually indistinguishable from the original to the human ear.
Experts say that the tools can have legitimate accessibility and automation pros — but it can also be easily weaponized by bad actors.
In June, the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security and the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre warned of a text and AI-generated voice messaging impersonation campaign in which threat actors pretended to be senior officials and prominent public figures to steal money and information.
Flashback: The accessibility of voice cloning tech has exploded in recent years, with hundreds of tools available, said Vijay Balasubramaniyan, the CEO and founder of Pindrop, which specializes in voice fraud prevention.
"Each tool is becoming even more, for lack of a better word, idiot proof, in terms of how easy it is to just create something," he said. "It's all just push of a button."
Audio of public officials and celebrities is readily available for bad actors to seize online, he noted. But ordinary people are still just as at risk.
"I think we're in the Wild, Wild West as far as information is concerned," he said.
Trump has reportedly been picking up the phone for anyone who calls, and he loves using his personal cell phone — making him a prime target for spoofed calls and impersonation attempts.
Officials have leaned heavily on Signal for confidential conversations — even accidentally messaging military strike plans to the Atlantic's top editor.
The intrigue: Government-issued phones typically have more advanced identity authentication tools and operate on private government networks — making it easier to stop suspicious activities before they come in.
Reality check: Most cybercriminals don't even need to use AI — people are still falling for the same old tricks, including texts from fake job recruiters.
Americans lost over $12.5 billion to fraud last year, up 25% from 2023, according to the FTC.
A persistent hacking crew of young men and teenagers is back with a vengeance, wielding a two-year-old playbook to knock U.S. corporate systems offline.
Why it matters: Scattered Spider hasn't had to evolve much to remain effective — a sign of how little corporate cybersecurity defenses have improved.
The group's tactics, including help desk impersonation and SIM swapping, continue to wreak havoc across critical industries.
Driving the news: Over the past month, Scattered Spider has been on a hacking spree that's disrupted operations at retailers, grocery chains, insurance providers, and airlines across the U.S., the U.K. and Canada.
Their reach may also now extend into Australia, where Qantas is investigating a cyberattack on one of its call centers — a hallmark tactic of Scattered Spider.
The big picture: Unlike most ransomware gangs, Scattered Spider isn't a monolithic, state-sponsored machine. It's a loose collective, largely made up of teenagers and young men who emerged from online gaming communities like Roblox and Minecraft.
"Scattered Spider includes more people in Western countries than other ransomware groups," Cynthia Kaiser, senior vice president of Halcyon's Ransomware Research Center and a former top FBI cyber official, told Axios.
But while originally rooted in English-speaking countries, it's evolved into a more global operation, she said.
Breaking it down: The group operates like a business, with a leadership structure, junior associates and temporary roles. Some members' sole job is to call help desks and reset employee passwords.
Adam Meyers, SVP of counter adversary operations at CrowdStrike, told Axios the group's origin lies in a toxic subset of gaming culture, where online harassment evolved into SIM swapping and eventually ransomware.
Scattered Spider's core includes about four leaders, but its operations are interwoven with members of the broader online community "The Com," which has ties to cybercrime and real-world violence, experts said.
How it works: The group's primary tactic remains voice-based phishing where they call a company's overseas help desk, impersonate an employee, and reset their single sign-on passwords.
They then use SIM swapping to intercept multifactor-authentication codes.
In recent incidents, the group has escalated attacks by targeting ESXi hypervisors — systems that power a company's servers and digital operations but often fly under the radar of traditional security tools. Once inside, they deploy ransomware and cripple the server environment.
"They're ninjas with identity," Meyers said. "They know how to avoid modern security tools ... and they're incredibly fast — in some cases, there's less than 24 hours between gaining access to deploying ransomware."
Meyers added that his team has identified seven unique voices calling help desks in recent months.
Flashback: Scattered Spider first made headlines in 2023 with attacks on Las Vegas casinos, including MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment. Two years later, their methods remain largely unchanged.
"It's largely the same, frankly," Meyers said. "Once they figure out one organization that they can successfully get into, then they go, 'We're here, who are their peers, who are their competitors, who else is there that we can perhaps go after?'"
Threat level: Scattered Spider is now collaborating with Russian ransomware gangs, including those behind Play, Akira and DragonForce, Kaiser said.
Between the lines: Despite the group's Western presence, law enforcement faces obstacles in tracking them down.
Many members are minors, which gives them different legal protections, Meyers said. And if they have any mental health conditions, officials in some countries where the group operatesare limited in how long they can hold them and what charges they can pursue.
For instance, when authorities arrested members of the Lapsus$ hacking gang — another group involving juvenile offenders — prosecutors struggled to proceed against a 17-year-old despite clear evidence of major corporate breaches.
Kaiser noted that identifying every member of Scattered Spider is difficult due to the group's sprawling, decentralized nature.
The intrigue: Still, U.S. officials have made more arrests tied to Scattered Spider than to Russian ransomware crews. In November, five men were charged in connection with the group.
The bottom line: Experts urge U.S. companies to implement strict ID verification protocols at IT help desks and to upgrade outdated MFA methods like SMS and voice codes.
They should also closely monitor how much network access is granted to third-party vendors.
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are meeting this evening to discuss efforts to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.
Why it matters: The two leaders had dinner last night, but weren't scheduled to meet again during Netanyahu's visit to Washington. The newly added meeting comes amid renewed optimism surrounding negotiations for a 60-day truce in Gaza.
Axios reported prior to Netanyahu's arrival in D.C. on Monday that Trump was seeking to align with him on what a larger peace deal to end the war could look like.
Behind the scenes: A Qatari delegation arrived at the White House prior to the Trump-Netanyahu meeting on Monday and met for several hours with senior White House officials, according to a source familiar with those meetings. Qatar is helping mediate the Israel-Hamas negotiations.
What they're saying: Trump confirmed during a Cabinet meeting that he would be meeting with Netanyahu to discussing Gaza, adding: "We have to get this solved."
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff spoke after Trump and said Israel and Hamas had resolved three of four remaining issues during "proximity talks" in Doha.
"Hopefully we will reach an agreement by the end of the week," Witkoff said.
Netanyahu also confirmed to reporters after a meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson that he expects to meet with Trump on Gaza. "We need both sides to agree," he said. "I hope we will pass the finish line. The less I speak about this publicly the better."
Zoom in: The remaining difference has to do with the Israel Defense Forces' withdrawal from Gaza.
A source with knowledge said that during talks on Monday and Tuesday the parties have been discussing maps of the redeployment.
Hamas demands the IDF withdraw to the same lines as before the previous ceasefire collapsed in March. Israel refuses to do that.
One issue that has now been resolved is the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, according to two sources with direct knowledge.
One source said the parties agreed that aid in areas of Gaza from which the IDF withdraws will be delivered by the UN or international organizations not affiliated with Israel and Hamas.
This means the U.S. and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation will not be able to expand its operations in Gaza and might have to roll back some of them.
Another difference that was resolved has to do with Hamas' demand for a U.S. guarantee that Israel won't be able to unilaterally resume the war after the 60-day ceasefire ends
A source with direct knowledge said Witkoff sent a message to Hamas on Monday through Palestinian American businessman Bishara Bahbah, who facilitates the back channel between the U.S. and Hamas.
The message was that Trump is committed to extending the ceasefire if negotiations on ending the war continue for more than 60-days.
This breaking news story has been updated throughout.
Why it matters: It's the opposite of what he said Monday night.
What they're saying: "There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change. In other words, all money will be due and payable starting AUGUST 1, 2025 - No extensions will be granted," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
Catch up quick: Trump, asked at the White House Monday night if the deadline was absolute, told reporters it was "firm but not 100% firm," depending on the kinds of offers countries made.
Editor's note: This is a developing story and will be updated.
President Trump's signature tax and spending legislation, the "big beautiful bill," is now law, and that means cuts to Medicaid spending.
The big picture: The law sets in motion almost $1 trillion in slashes to Medicaid and other health policy changes, likely forcing states to make corresponding reductions to their programs or to pick up a greater share of obligations.
Medicaid work requirements, which account for many of the nearly 12 million people projected to lose coverage under the bill, generally won't kick in until 2027 — and some states could get extensions, Axios' Maya Goldman reports.
Because states have varying names for their Medicaid programs, experts say Americans may not realize the cuts and work rules apply to them. So there could be a surprise factor when the changes finally come.
Zoom in: Medicaid is administered by states using a combination of federal and state funds. Each program has its own name.
The percentage of costs paid by the federal government, known as the FMAP, varies by state.
States have to cover certain core benefits and they may get federal funds for some optional services.
The FMAP can also provide a higher matching rate for specific services or populations, like people covered under the ACA Medicaid expansion.
By the numbers: In fiscal year 2025, the federal government paid up to 77% of Medicaid service costs in the lowest-income states, with the national average at 60%.
Here's what every state calls its Medicaid program:
The high-stakes effort to set nutrition standards for the food industry and government programs like Head Start is about to get a makeover from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Why it matters: It's an opportunity for Kennedy to exert more leverage over food and beverage companies and the products they make after narrower actions like pressing them to voluntarily eliminate synthetic food dyes.
But experts worry Kennedy will short-circuit the evidence-based process behind the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and use the requirements to ban targets of his public health movement, like seed oils or sugary drinks.
"The biggest impact he can have on food in America is what's in the dietary guidelines," said Jerold Mande, former deputy undersecretary of agriculture and CEO of Nourish Science.
"The industry's worst nightmare [is] that there's substantial changes in the dietary guidelines," Mande said. "I've just recently been in a number of meetings with CEOs of big food companies. They're not looking forward to wholesale changes."
State of play: The guidelines are issued every five years and underpin federal nutrition policies. They dictate such basics as what goes into free school lunches and even what soldiers eat.
They also influence what doctors and nutritionists tell patients and the content on public-facing tools like the USDA's MyPlate and its predecessor the food pyramid.
Kennedy and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins have said they're pushing ahead with new recommendations that could be released soon.
The expectation is a Make America Healthy Again-inspired revamp would not only call for more of a focus on locally sourced whole foods, but could call for the return of meat with high fat content, whole milk and beef tallow, in the name of healthier alternatives.
What we're hearing: Kennedy said he intends to have the guidelines, which can be hundreds of pages long, published in a more consumer-friendly four-page document by August.
During a speech at Texas A&M in April, he indicated he'd scrap a scientific report that a panel of nutrition experts issued under the Biden administration in December to guide this year's update. It called for eating less meat and saturated fats, and more fiber-rich legumes, fruits and vegetables.
MAHA-aligned nutritionists suggest existing guidelines downplay nutritional inadequacies and mistakenly stress the health benefits of beans, peas and lentils over animal products.
"There are myriad problems with an approach that oversimplifies nutrition science — not the least of which is that lawmakers can't make sound policy off of a short high-level overview," a food industry executive told Axios, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the deliberations.
Experts point to a number of areas Kennedy could change:
Saturated fats: The Dietary Guidelines have long recommended limiting saturated fat consumption to less than 10% of daily calories to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, said Jessi Silverman, a dietician at the Center for Science in the Public Interest.
The organization fears Kennedy will instead promote disputed ideas about the benefits of beef tallow and increased consumption of meat and whole fat dairy products, she said.
Additives: While food manufacturers defend their ingredients as safe, experts have been largely supportive of scrutiny around additives like artificial food dyes.
Schools have already been purchasing products without synthetic dyes in response to limits in some states, said Diane Pratt-Heavner, spokesperson for the School Nutrition Association.
"The colors are a no-brainer because there's enough question about their safety that they really shouldn't be there. Just get rid of them," said Marion Nestle, emerita professor of nutrition at New York University.
Ultra-processed foods: Another area of focus is ultra-processed foods and their role contributing to obesity.
But the science is more complicated than it may seem, Pratt-Heavner said. "Ultra-processed as a category includes so many different foods that have a variety of different nutritional profiles," she noted, adding it's not yet clear what about ultra-processed foods is driving this correlation.
School meals are already the most regulated in the country, with districts stretched to meet limits for calories, saturated fat, sodium and sugar. Upending those goals without a corresponding increase in funding would be an enormous challenge, she said.
Alcohol: Specific recommendations to limit consumption to one drink a day for women and two drinks a day for men are expected to be eliminated from the guidelines, Reuters reported.
It's been an area of disagreement and not something the dietary advisory committee took up in December, Mande said.
Health and Human Services did not respond to requests for comment.
Reality check: Studies show the vast majority of Americans' diets (86%) don't meet to the U.S. dietary guidelines, Mande pointed out.
So far, Kennedy has avoided mandating changes, raising questions about how willing he is to lower the hammer on the food industry.
The bottom line: The dietary guidelines are inherently a political document and both Kennedy and Rollins aren't legally obligated to follow expert advice.
"There's no reason it wouldn't say exactly what RFK Jr. and Brooke Rollins intend it to say," Mande said.
Elon Musk's push to form a new political party is fielding offers for help from Andrew Yang's Forward Party, the Libertarian Party and several consultants, Axios has learned.
"I'm in touch with Elon and his team, and I've said to them, 'Look, anyone who wants to challenge the duopoly has a friend in me,' " Yang said in an interview with Axios.
Why it matters: Musk has said he wants his America Party to be a political disruptor in the 2026 midterms — a likely outlet for the billionaire's push to cut the nation's runaway debt and boost sustainable energy.
And, perhaps, strike back at President Trump and those Republican lawmakers who left Musk feeling betrayed by backing Trump's "big beautiful bill," which is projected to balloon the nation's deficits by more than $3 trillion over the next decade.
Zoom in: So far, Musk's plans are mostly all talk — a germ of an idea to target a few members of Congress.
Creating a third party in U.S. politics isn't easy, and requires an organization that's able to gather the signatures of thousands of voters in a state just to get on a ballot. Musk, who sank well over $200 million into backing Trump and Republicans last year, has the money to do that.
Then there's the question of which voters and candidates would be willing to stand with Musk. He has a history of erratic behavior — and polls indicate he's alienated voters on both sides of the spectrum by cozying up to Trump, leading DOGE, and then bitterly breaking with Trump.
But Monday, there were indications that other third parties might be willing to align with Musk.
Yang said he might help Musk recruit candidates in the House districts where Musk is looking to challenge incumbents.
Yang's Forward Party — founded in 2021, after his unsuccessful run in the Democratic presidential primary the year before — now has 46 elected officials representing the party.
"Right now they're in learning mode," Yang said of Musk and his team.
Musk "could make a third-party effort immediately viable, and that changes the game," said Ron Nielson, who managed Gary Johnson's Libertarian campaign for president in 2016 and said he would consider working for Musk's party.
No Labels, an organization that considered trying to run an independent presidential candidate in 2024, is also intrigued by Musk's interest in creating a new governing coalition in Congress, according to a representative from the group.
The Libertarian Party, meanwhile, is lobbying Musk where he lives — on X, his social media platform — urging him to join Libertarians over a shared interest of fiscal responsibility and concern about the deficit.
The Libertarian Party has the most ballot access of the minor parties and regularly has candidates for offices at all levels of government.
"Perhaps there is grounds for a coalition between the Libertarians and the America Party to run pro-liberty, small-government, fiscally conservative candidates against the Republicans, who have proven that they cannot be trusted," party chair Steven Nekhaila said.
"There's many billionaires and very wealthy, rich, iconic people that have tried, but none of them have been successful" in third-party politics, Nekhaila said.
Representatives for Musk didn't respond to a request for comment.
Zoom out: State laws govern ballot access, and "the laws in each state tend to be very complex and arcane, and they are enforced by partisan election officials," said Oliver Hall, founder and executive director for the Center for Competitive Democracy. "If the partisan election officials are not disposed to want you on the ballot, then they can enforce them in somewhat arbitrary ways."
Hall, whose organization helps all non-major party candidates navigate ballot access and litigation, has dealt with the numerous — and often frivolous — lawsuits filed by Democratic and GOP operatives to stifle third parties.
One lawsuit against independent candidate Cornel West in 2024 aimed to keep West off the ballot in Wisconsin because his two-page candidate declaration wasn't stapled together, Hall said.
"That's the kind of thing they will come after you for if they don't want you on the ballot," he said.
In some states, it's harder for a new party to get on the ballot for a congressional race than a presidential election, said ballot access expert Richard Winger, who runs Ballot Access News.
Between the lines: The third-party consulting and petitioning world is niche, but many people are motivated to expand voters' choices so Musk shouldn't struggle to find experts willing to work with him, several consultants told Axios.
Being the world's richest person also will help Musk — where there's money, there are consultants and advisers. But Musk and his team will have to find the right team members, political veterans said.
"I guarantee you every grifter in the petitioning world is already trying to get their claws into Musk," one third-party ballot access consultant told Axios.
Musk, the consultant added, needs "the pros, not the bros."
Axios' Hans Nichols and Alex Isenstadt contributed to this story.
Federal immigration agents would be banned from wearing most face coverings but be required to wear visible ID during public enforcement operations, according to a proposal from Democratic U.S. Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Cory Booker (D-NJ).
Why it matters: The long-shot proposal comes following images of masked, heavily armed immigration agents snatching people off the streets and taking them away in unmarked cars have shocked many Americans.
Driving the news: Under the proposed bill unveiled Tuesday, Homeland Security agents from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) would be required to display a legible ID that includes the agency name or acronym.
They'd also have to include information on their names or badge numbers.
This requirement would extend to federal agents detailed to immigration operations, and deputized state or local officers.
Zoom in: The bill also would prohibit non-medical face coverings (such as masks or balaclavas) that obscure identity or facial visibility, with exceptions for environmental hazards or covert operations.
In addition, it would require the Department of Homeland Security to establish disciplinary procedures for violations, report annually to Congress, and investigate complaints through its Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties.
Context: ICE agents are currently not required to wear body cameras, can cover their faces, don't have to provide badge numbers or identify themselves, can arrive in unmarked cars and they don't need a warrant from a judge to detain someone.
ICE agents operated with vastly more enforcement power, less transparency and fewer guardrails than local police and other federal agencies since ICE was created in 2003.
State of play: The Trump administration's stepped-up immigration enforcement as part of a mass deportation effort has exposed the ICE agents' tactical exceptions.
Administration officials say the secrecy is necessary to prevent agent doxing and for enforcement.
Critics argue that other agencies are required to identify themselves, and the lack of transparency is merely an excuse to create a secret police force.
What they're saying: "When federal immigration agents show up and pull someone off the street in plainclothes with their face obscured and no visible identification, it only escalates tensions and spreads fear while shielding federal agents from basic accountability," Padilla said.
Padilla said the VISIBLE Act would "restore transparency and ensure impersonators can't exploit the panic" during raids.
"The masked bandit is a symbol of fear, and having government agents dressed like paramilitaries is un-American," Scott Shuchart, a former ICE and DHS (Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties) official who supports the measure, said.
The other side: Tricia McLaughlin, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson, has defended ICE agents' tactics and the use of face coverings.
She told Axios that ICE agents have faced a 700% surge in assaults against them in recent weeks.
McLaughlin said DHS enforcement operations are highly targeted and blamed Democrats for "violent rhetoric" against ICE agents.
Zoom out: ICE was formed in 2003. It was placed under the control of the new Department of Homeland Security and replaced the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), which had been under the Justice Department.
To protect national security after the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, lawmakers gave ICE a unique combination of civil and criminal authorities.
Between the lines: Officers in other agencies are required to identify themselves and provide badge numbers to prevent impersonators.
ICE has no such requirement, and there have been reports of ICE impersonators harassing people, creating more chaos and uncertainty in some communities.
What we're watching: The pressure to rein in some of ICE's enforcement tactics does have support among some conservatives worried about over policing.
However, it's unclear whether such a proposal would garner any support from Republicans concerned about upsetting President Trump.
Why it matters: The world's richest person enjoyed ballooning wealth in the early days of his alliance with the president, but their partnership has collapsed after Musk assailed Republican spending plans.
Driving the news: Tesla shares fell sharply again Monday after Musk said he'd launch a new political party, the America Party, and suggested a strategy of targeting a few key House and Senate seats in 2026.
Musk is personally out nearly $20 billion — at least on paper — since breaking with President Trump last month, and his investors are out more than $100 billion on top of that.
By the numbers: Tesla shares closed down 6.8% Monday.
They're down about 14% since early June, when Musk first publicly blasted the "big, beautiful bill," which quickly spiraled into a full split with the administration.
The big picture: Anyone who's at odds with Trump risks being at odds with his legion of supporters, including Republicans who control all three branches of government in Washington.
Investors who were counting on favorable regulatory treatment for Tesla and a continued flow of government contracts for SpaceX now have reason to question where they stand.
Ivana Delevska, founder of Spear Invest, recently sold off Tesla shares amid mounting risks associated with Musk's political entanglements: "While the opportunity is outsized the risks are very significant as well," she wrote Monday. "While the reward potential is clearly here the risks are significant as well."
Threat level: Any sustained damage would come at a critical time for Musk's businesses.
Tesla began rolling out robotaxis in Austin in June, in a preview of a service that the company deems as critical to its future.
Tesla is also facing mounting global competition from the likes of Chinese EV maker BYD, which is rapidly gaining market share in China and Europe. And the company's sales have been tumbling amid a backlash over Musk's political involvement, with second quarter deliveries falling nearly 14%.
SpaceX is hoping to send an uncrewed mission to Mars in 2026.
What they're saying: "We expect that investors are growing tired of the distraction at a point when the business needs Musk's attention the most and only see downside from his dip back into politics," William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer writes in a research note.
Yes, but: Musk was still worth over $100 billion more than the world's second-richest person, Mark Zuckerberg, as of Monday with an estimated net worth of about $361 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
The big question: Will board members try to get Musk to tamp down the political stuff?
The Tesla board has historically been relentlessly supportive of Musk, though the WSJ reported in the spring that the board had launched a process to potentially identify a replacement CEO. Musk and Tesla chair Robyn Denholm denied it.
Musk likely has more structural control at his myriad of private companies, like SpaceX and xAI, and more personal relationships with his largest investors, Axios' Dan Primack notes. Those businesses also don't have volatile public stocks or face the same sort of consumer brand pressures that can bedevil Tesla.
The bottom line: Investors were heartened when Musk recently declared he was effectively done with politics and would refocus his time on his companies — but that pivot didn't last long.
"We would prefer this effort to be channeled towards the robotaxi rollout at this critical juncture," Dorsheimer says.
The Senate GOP's top super PAC and affiliates have more than doubled their fundraising record for the first half of an off-year — bringing in $85 million, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Senate Leadership Fund is a campaign powerhouse for the GOP. But its new leaders want to shake things up after a decade of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his allies at the helm.
This is the group's first fundraising release since Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) took over as Senate GOP leader.
President Trump is more involved than ever, SLF executive director Alex Latcham told Axios in an interview.
Latcham and former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) now run SLF after years under Steven Law, a close McConnell ally.
"We're working with [the White House] to identify and vet Senate candidates," Latcham said, describing it as an asset "as we navigate some of these primaries."
Discussions with the White House about 2026 come at a "regular cadence, whether it's in person, over the phone," he told Axios.
Zoom in: The group is planning to spend more money far ahead of the traditional blast after Labor Day of an election year.
They have already started spending in Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Nebraska.
They are planning an imminent Texas ad buy. SLF has backed Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who has been trailing his primary challenger Attorney General Ken Paxton in polls.
By the numbers: SLF and its affiliated group One Nation have raised over $85 million since the start of the year — far more than the $38 million raised over the same period in 2023, the group told Axios.
Together they have $83 million cash on hand.
SLF alone has $29 million on hand. That is three times as much as SLF had in 2023 and five times as much as in 2021, at the same point in the cycle.
Between the lines: Latcham gave credit to Thune's activity in fundraising for SLF and GOP candidates — both in D.C. and on the road.
But he also cited the GOP majority and excitement around the administration.
The team has also been targeting new donors.
"Obviously, you've got the crypto community, which is more engaged in politics writ large," Latcham said, adding there are others who are more engaged with Trump in office.
What to watch: SLF plans to put more emphasis on streaming and digital ads to reach the modern electorate, including younger voters and "cord-cutters."
Strategists are starting to map out how to reach voters who are solid Trump supporters, but are less likely to turn out in mid-term election years.
They plan to coordinate that work with other outside groups and the White House.
The bottom line: "What will not change is that SLF will continue to be the preeminent outside group dedicated to, you know, keeping and expanding the Senate Republican majority, " Latcham said.
President Trump's decision Monday to send defensive weapons to Ukraine followed days of consultations with aides and other world leaders about where those arms would actually come from.
Why it matters: The Trump Administration had paused shipments of some arms to Ukraine, including Patriot missile interceptors. Now the desperately needed weapons are on the way. But Trump is also seeking alternative solutions, including pressing Germany to send its own Patriot battery.
Driving the news: "We are going to have to send more weapons to Ukraine. Defensive weapons, they have to defend themselves," Trump told reporters during a Monday evening meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"At President Trump's direction, the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace," the Pentagon said later Monday night.
Still, Trump and his team are reluctant to part with many Patriot interceptors. He wants the Europeans to send more of their own money and materiel as well.
Driving the news: Trump's change of heart started to become clearer on Friday when he spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in what both sides said was their best phone call since Trump assumed office.
Trump told Zelensky he wants to help Ukraine's air defenses but stressed that the U.S. had to pause the latest weapons shipment to review its own stockpiles, according to two sources briefed on the call.
Two sources said Trump promised to immediately send 10 Patriot interceptors — fewer than had been planned in the paused shipment — and help to find other means of supply.
The day prior, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had called Trump to ask him to release the Patriot interceptors that were paused while en route to Ukraine, a German official said.
Friction point: The official said Merz told Trump that Germany is ready to buy Patriot batteries from the U.S. and send them to Ukraine.
For his part, Trump suggested Germany sell one of its Patriot batteries to Ukraine, according to three sources familiar with the discussion. They said the U.S. and European allies would split the cost of the purchase.
Trump and Merz didn't reach an agreement, but officials say the discussion is ongoing. German officials contend Germany has given a very high percentage of its Patriots to Ukraine — even more than the U.S. in relative terms.
The big picture: With stocks dwindling amid multiple ongoing wars, there's increasing concern among NATO countries about giving up munitions — particularly interceptors — more quickly than they can be produced.
"Getting a Patriot missile isn't like going to Walmart and picking 10 off the shelf and going home," one Trump adviser told Axios.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth identified available Patriot missile batteries in Germany and Greece that the U.S. would prefer to finance and send to Ukraine. "Those conversations have been ongoing for months," the Trump adviser said.
The U.S. recently conducted its largest-ever Patriot missile salvo to defend U.S. troops in Qatar from an Iranian attack.
Reality check: Trump isn't just concerned about stockpiles. He's told confidants that "this isn't my war," but it will be if he starts sending arms to Ukraine.
Trump overcame some of his reticence to use military force when he bombed Iran's nuclear sites, however, and some advisers think he can similarly find a justification for sending Ukraine purely defensive weaponry.
Zoom out: Trump's thinking is informed by his mounting exasperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who unleashed a massive air barrage on Ukraine after hanging up with the U.S. president on Thursday.
By contrast, Trump's call with Zelensky was friendly and productive, as was their meeting a week prior at a NATO meeting in The Hague.
"They [Ukrainians] should feel better than they have at any point during the Trump presidency," said a source familiar with the discussions. "Putin was a jerk."
The intrigue: At The Hague, Trump also had a notable exchange with BBC reporter Myroslava Petsa, a Ukrainian, who asked him about sending Patriots to her homeland, where her husband is a soldier.
"It made an impression," said one source who spoke with Trump.
But another cautioned that Trump might have been suspicious and asked others, "was that a setup?"
What's next: Zelensky and his aides will meet in Rome later this week with Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg. They hope to get more clarity on the future of U.S. weapons shipments.
The bottom line: "This is the president's administration. What he decides, we do," a Trump adviser said. "We're waiting on him."
The above chart may explain why your boss is taking longer to get back to you lately: She's got a lot more underlings to watch over.
Driving the news: People managers now oversee about twice as many workers as just five years ago, per a new analysis.
Why it matters: Middle managers — i.e. bosses who have bosses — were already quietly going extinct, and now AI may be hastening the process.
By the numbers: There are now nearly six individual contributors per manager at the 8,500 small businesses analyzed in a report by Gusto, which handles payroll for small and medium-sized employers. That's up from a little over three in 2019.
"It's happening broadly across the economy," Nich Tremper, a senior economist at Gusto, told Axios.
For small companies, a lot of this happened through attrition, he says. "Rather than replacing a manager, an existing one will just see an expanded scope." (Pity these folks during performance review season.)
The big picture: Big Tech has been shedding middle managers for the past few years, a process that's been dubbed the Great Flattening.
It's not totally clear that AI is replacing the work managers do. Instead, the headcount reduction seems to be a way to cut costs, particularly as companies spend huge sums on AI.
Zoom in: Reducing management layers is one of Microsoft's stated goals in laying off thousands of workers this year as it ramps up its AI strategy. Most recently the company announced it was shedding 9,000 employees — a mix of individual contributors and managers.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy announced an effort to reduce managers in a memo last year.
Google cut vice president and manager roles by 10% last year, according to Business Insider.
And Meta has been "flattening" since 2023's "year of efficiency."
State of play: Small businesses in the service sector — including restaurants and other hospitality businesses — were first to this trend,says Tremper.
These companies needed to find a way to cut labor costs, as wages soared coming out of the pandemic and interest rates spiked, too.
Between the lines: AI may allow for more flattening to come.
The use of the technology has freed up managers' time, as their direct reports turn to AI for help instead of their manager, per a recent study highlighted in this month's Harvard Business Review.
Meanwhile, supervisors are also increasingly using AI to automate managing, as Axios' Megan Morrone reported earlier this month, though it's not exactly clear how.
What to watch: "Flattening" can backfire. Gusto found that industries with more managers had higher worker productivity.
Junior employees especially need the training and mentorship that a close relationship with a manager offers, Tremper says.
The bottom line: "Middle manager is almost a cultural joke in a lot of ways," Tremper says.
But getting rid of them all might not be so funny.
