Mass surveillance. Pre-emptive military strikes in the Middle East. Shipping people to domestic and foreign prisons. Citing national security to hide information from the courts. Labeling people as "terrorists" as a political and legal strategy.

Why it matters: Donald Trump became president in part by running against the legacy of George W. Bush, the last Republican in the White House before him. But now Trump is supercharging many of the post-9/11 legal, tactical and political strategies Bush used.

Driving the news: Trump's push to deport "millions" of unauthorized immigrants and his strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in particular have many parallels to Bush's "War on Terror."

• Trump's sending unauthorized immigrants to high-security prisons in the U.S. and abroad — sometimes denying them due process.
• Bush sent alleged terrorists — including undocumented people in the U.S. — to prisons around the world and the U.S. military facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Trump administration is now using "Gitmo" for detainees it says have criminal histories.
• Trump preemptively, and unilaterally, attacked Iran with 14 bunker-buster bombs and launched missiles at an Iranian-backed proxy group in Yemen, killing dozens.
• He said he ordered the first attack out of concern Iran was close to gaining a nuclear weapon. Bush used a similar rationale for invading Iraq, though unlike Trump he got Congress' approval beforehand.

The similarities don't stop there:

• Surveillance: Trump has enlisted tech company and defense contractor Palantir to help surveil and track unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. Bush enlisted telecom companies such as AT&T and Sprint for most of his domestic surveillance in the name of stopping terrorists. Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" provides billions to expand such programs. (Palantir told Axios that its software doesn't proactively collect data, and said its work is in accordance with the law.)
• Executive orders: Trump's administration has invoked some of Bush's executive orders made after 9/11 to justify his immigration actions, as Semafor pointed out.
• Rhetoric: Trump has labeled alleged members of Latin American gangs as "terrorists" and "alien enemies" to justify expedited deportations. He has said his administration is focused mostly on "the worst of the worst" — the same phrase Bush's administration used in its anti-terror campaign.
• Courts: Trump and Bush's administrations both concealed information from judges and court hearings using the "state secrets privilege," claiming there would be a national security risk for transparency.
• Habeas corpus: Trump has floated suspending habeas corpus — suspects' right to use the courts to fight unlawful detentions. Bush tried to do that in 2006 before it was overturned by the Supreme Court.

Reality check: There are exceptions to the Trump-Bush parallels.

• Trump's immigration effort is far broader than Bush's, which focused largely on men suspected of having ties to terror groups. Trump's deportation efforts are targeted at millions more noncitizens in communities nationwide.
• Bush was also responding to the trauma of the 9/11 attacks and fearful of another mass attack.
• So far, Trump's attacks against Iran have been far more limited than the government-toppling invasions Bush embarked on.

What they're saying: A spokesperson for Bush declined to comment.

• Trump's team didn't respond to a request for comment.
• "Trump is saying out loud what the Bush administration did behind closed doors," said Vince Warren, executive director of the Center for Constitutional Rights, the first organization to represent detainees sent to Guantanamo Bay after 9/11.

Between the lines: Most Republicans have cheered Trump's aggressive immigration moves, while Democrats have been mostly muted in pushing back, recognizing that Joe Biden's handling of the border cost them politically.

• Some Trump supporters such as Tucker Carlson have criticized the president's military entanglements in the Middle East, given that Trump ran on a promise to avoid getting involved in wars such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• Vice President Vance has said he understands such concerns and told NBC's "Meet the Press" last month that "the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents, and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America's national security objectives. So this is not going to be some long, drawn-out thing."

Flashback: The Bush administration made mistakes in who it detained and accused of links to terrorism in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

• The Bush administration preemptively detained hundreds of Arab and Muslim immigrants in the U.S., and some men were sent to foreign prisons.
• An inspector general report in 2003 said: "Even in the hectic aftermath of the September 11 attacks, we believe the FBI should have taken more care to distinguish between aliens who it actually suspected of having a connection to terrorism," and those "who, while possibly guilty of violating federal immigration law, had no connection to terrorism."

Israel rejected Hamas' proposed changes to the latest Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, but will send negotiators to Qatar on Sunday to try to close remaining gaps, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Saturday.

Why it matters: While key hurdles remain, the resumption of indirect talks in Qatar is a significant step toward a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

• The two parties haven't engaged in negotiations since the previous round of talks collapsed six weeks ago.

Driving the news: President Trump has been pressuring both Israel and Hamas — through Qatari and Egyptian mediators — to agree to a deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and the release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies.

• He wants to see some progress by Monday, when he plans to meet with Netanyahu at the White House.
• Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday night that he's "very optimistic" about the chances of getting a deal next week.

What they're saying: "The changes Hamas wants to make in the Qatari proposal are unacceptable," the Israeli prime minister's office said in a statement.

• Still, Netanyahu agreed to Qatar's invitation for "proximity talks" with Hamas.
• The statement said the Israeli negotiating team will depart for Doha on Sunday, and emphasized the talks will be "based on the Qatari proposal that Israel has agreed to."

Catch up quick: Hamas said Friday that its response to the proposed ceasefire and hostage deal "can be characterized as positive" and that the Palestinian militant group is ready to begin implementation talks.

• But Hamas also gave Qatari mediators three reservations it wants to address in indirect talks with Israel and the U.S.
• Once the ceasefire begins, Hamas asked for the UN to take back control of humanitarian aid delivery in Gaza. It demanded that the Israel and U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund no longer be part of the aid delivery.
• It also wants the IDF to pull back to the positions it held before the March ceasefire collapsed.

Israel has rejected those demands.

Between the lines: Under the current proposal, Israel and Hamas would hold indirect talks during the 60-day ceasefire to negotiate terms for a permanent end to the war.

• The U.S., Qatar and Egypt would commit to extending the truce beyond 60 days if more time is needed.
• Hamas is pushing for a stronger U.S. guarantee that Israel won't be able to unilaterally resume fighting after 60 days.

Efforts to find more than 25 girls missing from Camp Mystic after flash floods hit Central Texas early Friday morning continue, but four bodies — and dozens more from other parts of the region — have already been recovered.

Here's what we know about the victims of the flooding near Kerrville, Texas:

Renee Smajstrla

The young girl has been identified by her uncle as one of the Camp Mystic attendees who went missing and whose body has since been recovered.

• "We are thankful she was with her friends and having the time of her life, as evidenced by this picture from yesterday. She will forever be living her best life at Camp Mystic," Shawn Salta wrote on Facebook.

Sarah Marsh

The 8-year-old Mountain Brook, Alabama, girl was a camper whose body has been found, per the city's mayor.

• "This is an unimaginable loss for her family, her school, and our entire community. Sarah's passing is a sorrow shared by all of us, and our hearts are with those who knew and loved her, " Mayor Stewart Welch wrote in a Facebook post.

Janie Hunt

The 9-year-old girl's family confirmed to NBC5 reporter Keenan Willard that she had died in the floods while at Camp Mystic.

Lila Bonner

Bonner's family also confirmed the girl, 9, had died.

• "In the midst of our unimaginable grief, we ask for privacy and are unable to confirm any details at this time. We ache with all who loved her," the girl's family said in a statement to NBC5.

Other people who were camping or lived near the Guadalupe River, which surged to roughly 26 feet within 45 minutes, also were victims. They include:

Dick Eastland

The longtime director of Camp Mystic was among the victims, with reports that he died while working to get girls to safety.

• Eastland, who attended the University of Texas, was at Camp Mystic since 1974 and was part of a third generation of a family managing the camp, per its website.
• Paige Sumner, a longtime friend, described Eastland as a "father figure" to everyone away from home at camp.
• "He was the father of four amazing boys, but he had hundreds of girls each term who looked up to him like a dad," Sumner wrote for the Kerrville Daily Times.

Jane Ragsdale

The beloved co-owner and director of Heart O' the Hills camp was killed in floods, according to a statement posted on the camp's website.

• "We at the camp are stunned and deeply saddened by Jane's death. She embodied the spirit of Heart O' the Hills and was exactly the type of strong, joyful woman that the camp aimed to develop with the girls entrusted to us each summer."
• The girls' camp opened in 1953. There were no campers at the time of the floods.

Julian Ryan

Ryan, 27, "died a hero," his family told KHOU in Houston.

• Ryan's fiancée told the station water quickly entered their home near the Guadalupe River. Ryan punched out a window to get his family out, she said, but he was ultimately unable to make it out.
• "Julian was a cherished son and devoted parent and fiancé who was dedicated to his family. He was known to have an infectious laugh and unwavering kindness," according to a GoFundme account raising money for his family.
• "He touched countless lives with his humor and will be deeply missed by everyone who had the privilege of knowing him."

Katheryn Eads

Eads went missing and was later found dead while her husband survived, per the Washington Post.

• Amy Hutchinson, the owner and director of Olive Branch Counseling and Training in Texas, told the Post that Eads had previously worked at the company.
• "Katheryn was a hope and a light to all who knew her," she said in an email to The Post. "A daughter, a wife, a mother, grandmother, friend and colleague. She was a stellar counselor and professor and she simply just made everything better. Katheryn was changing lives."

Editor's note: This is developing story.

More than two dozen kids from the all-girls private camp, Camp Mystic, remained missing Saturday after catastrophic floods hit the area Thursday into Friday.

Here's what we know about the camp:

• Mystic Camp is nestled in Texas' Hill Country, along the banks of the Guadalupe River, which on Friday reached the second-highest height on record in the unincorporated community of Hunt. The campsite is surrounded by cypress, live oak and pecan trees, per the camp's website.
• Roughly 700 kids were at the camp when flooding began, according to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who said about 23 girls were unaccounted for as of Friday afternoon.
• Some of the campers were found dead and have been identified by family members.

Flashback: Founded in 1926 by University of Texas coach Edward James "Doc" Stewart, Mystic Camp is a nondenominational Christian camp for girls who have finished second grade.

• It was purchased by another family in 1939 and has been operated by descendants since, per its website.
• "In the Mystic spirit, their goals are to boost every camper's self-confidence and to nurture the development of their individual character," the website says of the current owners, Dick and Tweety Eastland.

Zoom in: Camp Mystic offers over 30 activities including many sports, arts and crafts, theater and more.

• The camp offers two 4-week terms starting in May and a 2-week term in late July.

What we're watching: Authorities continue search and rescue efforts.

Go deeper:

• What we know about the Texas flooding victims
• At least 27 people killed in Central Texas floods

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest details on missing campers and flooding.

Authorities say they have recovered the bodies of 51 people, including at least 15 children, after severe flash floods in Central Texas inundated the region, including a girls' camp.

The big picture: The catastrophic flooding that began early Friday morning on the Guadalupe River, in an area about 65 miles northwest of San Antonio, has now extended to other parts of Central Texas, with an unknown number of people unaccounted for.

The latest: At least four people are dead and more are missing due to flooding in Travis County, home to Austin, and another three people have been confirmed dead in Burnet County, to Austin's northwest.

• One person died in Kendall County, per the New York Times.
• Of the 43 found dead in Kerr County — where Camp Mystic and other campsites were — 12 adults and five children have not been identified.

Zoom in: The identities of the dead are beginning to trickle out, including campers at Camp Mystic, a girls private camp along the Guadalupe River. Authorities say 27 girls from the camp remain missing.

• Campers Lila Bonner and Janie Hunt, who were both 9 years old, and 8-year-old Sarah Marsh have been found dead, per CNN.
• Dick Eastland, the director of the camp, was among those who died in Friday's Guadalupe River flood.

What they're saying: At a funeral home on Saturday, "I got to see first-hand many of the body bags, and it breaks my heart," Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said at a press conference in Kerrville.

Between the lines: In response to a question about why more people weren't warned ahead of time about flooding risk, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said at the press conference in Texas, "Everybody wants more warning time, which is why we're trying to upgrade the technology that has been neglected for far too long."

Zoom out: The rain continues to fall — as of Saturday afternoon, nearly 18 inches had fallen in an area to Austin's northwest in the previous 24 hours.

• The rainfall numbers are "unbelievable," Avery Tomasco, a meteorologist with CBS News, said on air, describing the storm as a "rain bomb."

Meanwhile, the Lower Colorado River Authority has launched flood operations at its dams to manage the water flowing through Austin.

• As of Saturday afternoon, Lake Travis, one of the chief reservoirs of Central Texas, had jumped 13 feet the previous 24 hours.

What's next: By late Saturday heavy rainfall is expected to dissipate, per forecasts.

The bottom line: "Our No. 1 priority is finding people as fast as possible and returning them to their families," Noem said.

Editor's note: This is a developing story and has been updated with new information.

For the first time since President Kennedy's assassination nearly 62 years ago, the CIA has tacitly admitted that an officer specializing in psychological warfare ran an operation that came into contact with Lee Harvey Oswald before the Dallas killing.

Why it matters: The disclosure Thursday — nestled in a batch of 40 documents concerning officer George Joannides — indicates the CIA lied for decades about his role in the Kennedy case before and after the assassination, according to experts on JFK's slaying.

• The linchpin document: A Jan. 17, 1963, CIA memo showing Joannides was directed to have an alias and fake driver's license bearing the name "Howard Gebler."
• Until Thursday, the agency had denied that Joannides was known as "Howard," the case officer name for the CIA contact who worked with activists from an anti-communist group opposed to Cuban dictator Fidel Castro called the Cuban Student Directorate.
• For decades, the agency also falsely said it had nothing to do with the student group, which was instrumental in having Oswald's pro-Castro stances published soon after the shooting.

The bottom line: "The cover story for Joannides is officially dead," said Jefferson Morley, an author and expert on the assassination. "This is a big deal. The CIA is changing its tune on Lee Harvey Oswald."

• The information comes to light as part of President Trump's order that the government meet its obligations to disclose all documents under the JFK Records Act of 1992.
• Little was known of Joannides' involvement in the case until disclosures in 1998 under the records act. New disclosures of previously hidden records keep adding slices of information to the story.

Zoom in: Joannides was the deputy chief of the CIA's Miami branch, overseeing "all aspects of political action and psychological warfare." That included covertly funding and directing the Cuban student group, commonly referred to as DRE for its Spanish-language initials.

• On Aug. 9, 1963, more than three months before Nov. 22 assassination, four DRE operatives got into a scuffle with Oswald in New Orleans when he was passing out pro-Castro "Fair Play for Cuba Committee" pamphlets. The subsequent court hearing was covered by local news media.
• On Aug. 21 , 1963, Oswald debated DRE activists on local TV, providing more media attention to him as a communist.
• After the assassination, DRE's newsletter identified Oswald as a pro-Castro communist, and the Miami Herald and Washington Post covered the story.
• A year before Oswald became known as pro-Castro, the Pentagon formulated a plan called Operation Northwoods to stage a false-flag attack in the United States, blame Cuba and then attack it.

Zoom out: The new documents don't shed any additional light on Kennedy's shooting or settle the controversy over whether Oswald acted alone. Nor is there any evidence showing why the CIA covered up Joannides' ties to DRE.

• All the records disclosed so far show how the CIA lied about financing or being involved with DRE. That includes the agency's interactions with the Warren Commission (1964), the Church Committee (1975), the House Select Committee on Assassinations (1977-78) and the Assassination Review Board (until 1998).

The intrigue: Joannides didn't just have knowledge of Oswald before the assassination — afterward he played a central role in deceiving the House Select Committee on Assassinations.

• At the time, the CIA appointed Joannides to be its liaison with the committee. But he and the agency hid the fact that he was involved with DRE and therefore the Kennedy case, slow-walked the CIA's production of records, and lied.
• The committee's chief counsel, Robert Blakey, testified in 2014 that he asked Joannides about "Howard" and DRE, and that "Joannides assured me that they could find no record of any such officer assigned to DRE, but that he would keep looking," Blakey said.
• A former committee investigator, Dan Hardway, testified before a House Oversight committee last month that Joannides was running a "covert operation" to undermine the congressional probe into the assassination.
• Two years after stonewalling the committee, Joannides was awarded the Career Intelligence Medal by the CIA in 1981. He died in 1990.

What they're saying: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican overseeing the House committee examining the newly released JFK documents, said Joannides was "1,000 percent" involved in a CIA coverup.

• Morley and some others who've written extensively about Kennedy's assassination believe rogue CIA agents might have been involved in the killing, but Morley's not ready to say Joannides was one of them.
• Others, such as author Gerald Posner, believe Oswald was the lone gunman. But all are in agreement that the CIA acted in bad faith after Kennedy was killed.
• "It's vintage CIA. They never provide transparency. They don't tell the truth. They obscure. They obfuscate. And when the documents come out, they look bad," Posner said.

What's next: Morley and Luna say CIA Director John Ratcliffe and National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard deserve credit for demanding more transparency. So expect more records.

• "The CIA has fully complied and provided all documents — without redactions — related to the assassination of former President John F. Kennedy to NARA consistent with President Trump's direction in an unprecedented act of transparency by the Agency," a CIA spokesperson said.

The MAGA movement is reveling in the creativity, severity and accelerating force of President Trump's historic immigration crackdown.

Why it matters: Once-fringe tactics — an alligator-moated detention camp, deportations to war zones, denaturalization of immigrant citizens — are now being proudly embraced at the highest levels of the U.S. government.

• It's an extraordinary shift from Trump's first term, when nationwide backlash and the appearance of cruelty forced the administration to abandon its family separation policy for unauthorized immigrants.
• Six months into his second term — and with tens of billions of dollars in new funding soon flowing to ICE — Trump is only just beginning to scale up his mass deportation machine.

Driving the news: Trump on Tuesday toured a temporary ICE facility in the Florida Everglades dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz," where thousands of migrants will be detained in a remote, marshland environment teeming with predators.

• MAGA influencers invited on the trip gleefully posted photos of the prison's cages and souvenir-style "merchandise," thrilling their followers and horrifying critics.
• Pro-Trump activist Laura Loomer drew outrage after tweeting that "alligators are guaranteed at least 65 million meals if we get started now" — widely interpreted as a reference to the Hispanic population of the United States.

The big picture: Citing the millions of unauthorized immigrants who crossed the border under President Biden, Trump and his MAGA allies have framed the second-term crackdown as a long-overdue purge.

• The result is an increasingly draconian set of enforcement measures designed to deter, expel and make examples out of unauthorized immigrants.
• Some newer members of the MAGA coalition, such as podcaster Joe Rogan, have expressed deep discomfort with the targeting of non-criminal undocumented immigrants.

Zoom in: Trump's deportation efforts exploded into a full-blown spectacle in March, when the U.S. flew hundreds of alleged gang members to a notorious mega-prison in El Salvador.

• The operation was captured in glitzy promotional footage, distributed on official White House social media, that showed shaved and shackled migrants being marched off planes and busses at gunpoint.
• Kilmar Ábrego García, a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador but brought back to face human trafficking charges in the U.S., claims he suffered "severe beatings" and was tortured in the prison.

Zoom out: Trump's immigration toolkit has expanded since March, as his aides push for a dramatically higher pace of arrests and deportations.

• Trump federalized the National Guard in California and deployed troops in Los Angeles to protect federal ICE agents, giving the military a rare and highly contentious role in immigration raids.
• The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to deport undocumented immigrants to non-origin countries — including war torn nations such as South Sudan and Libya.
• Hundreds of migrants are being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. This week, Trump claimed that "conceptual work" is underway to reopen Alcatraz — the decrepit former island prison in San Francisco, now a tourist site.

The latest: On Thursday, ICE announced it had arrested and was preparing to deport Mexican boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. — accusing him of cartel ties just days after he headlined an arena against influencer Jake Paul.

What to watch: Denaturalization of U.S. citizens — once a legal backwater — is gaining traction as Trump and his MAGA allies push the envelope on nativist rhetoric.

• The Justice Department has begun prioritizing stripping naturalized Americans of their citizenship when they're charged with crimes and "illegally procured or misrepresented facts in the naturalization process."
• But some MAGA influencers are pushing to weaponize denaturalization more broadly — not just as a legal remedy for fraud, but as a tool to punish ideological opponents.

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) has called for the Justice Department to investigate the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, who was born in Uganda and became a U.S. citizen in 2018.

• Trump has echoed false claims about Mamdani being in the country "illegally," and threatened to arrest the democratic socialist if he impedes federal immigration operations in New York.

Between the lines: For MAGA influencers obsessed with the notion of protecting Western civilization, denaturalization is also about enforcing cultural loyalty.

• Prominent voices on the right have argued that immigrants who haven't properly "assimilated" — by their definition — should be vulnerable to losing their citizenship.
• "The MAGA movement is willing to make examples of the people who have failed to [assimilate] so that in the future, the bar is set higher," said Raheem Kassam, editor of The National Pulse.

The bottom line: MAGA is leveraging a precedent-busting president to set a new standard for immigration enforcement — one that could define Republican policy for years to come.

• "We expect you to enforce, in full measure, the immigration laws," the Conservative Partnership Institute's Rachel Bovard told Axios.
• "Anything that departs from this, to some extent, is going to be viewed as backsliding by the next president."

It's not food, it's not chewing tobacco and it's not gum — though it might look like it when you see it — but it is becoming America's new addictive obsession.

Why it matters: Sales of Zyn nicotine pouches are soaring, prompting the tobacco company that makes them to scramble to boost U.S. production to meet demand.

The big picture: People are popping nicotine pouches into their mouths at games, at the movies, at the workplace, at home, at the store — it's America's new addictive habit.

• Celebrity Josh Brolin even admitted to using it while sleeping (which is not recommended).

How it works: Zyn pouches are placed between the gum and lip, gradually releasing nicotine over time.

• The pouches are discreet and don't produce smoke or odors like cigarettes.

Threat level: The product is addictive because nicotine is addictive.

• But it does not cause cancer since it doesn't contain tobacco, whose harmful chemicals are carcinogenic. As a result, advocates say nicotine pouches can serve as a safer alternative to smoking.
• Philip Morris International U.S. CEO Stacey Kennedy argued that nicotine is "misunderstood" and contains "cognitive benefits."
• "You have to be able to separate out the misconceptions of what causes harm — and nicotine is probably one of the most misunderstood compounds, because many people believe that nicotine is responsible for smoking-related disease, and it's not," Kennedy said in an interview.

Yes, but: Tobacco industry watchdogs say products that contain nicotine, such as pouches and e-cigarettes, can serve as a gateway to smoking, especially for teens.

• "Tobacco companies have a long history of lying to Congress and the public about the addictiveness of nicotine, so they're not a credible source of information about nicotine," Yolonda C. Richardson, CEO of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, told Axios in an email.
• "While those who smoke heavily and have been unable to quit may potentially benefit from switching completely to nicotine pouches, there is a concern that they may appeal to adolescents and other new users of nicotine, particularly through the way they are featured in advertisements," according to a synopsis of a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health study.

By the numbers: U.S. shipments of Zyn pouches rose 177% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025.

• The company got 42% of its revenue from smoke-free products in Q1 2025 as it pursues its goal of one day ending cigarette sales — a stated objective that critics say is hollow given that smokers continue to deliver substantial revenue.
• PMI — which sells cigarettes outside of the U.S. but does not sell them here — still gets a majority of its revenue from smokers, but that's likely to flip soon as Zyn sales continue to grow. (PMI split off from Philip Morris USA owner Altria Group in 2008. Their deal called for Altria to sell Marlboro cigarettes in the U.S., while Philip Morris International would sell them in other markets.)

State of play: Sales could accelerate further after the FDA, in the final days of the Biden administration, authorized the marketing of 20 Zyn products following an extensive scientific review.

• Matthew Farrelly, director of the Office of Science in the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, noted in the FDA's announcement about Zyn's marketing approval that "the data show that these nicotine pouch products" are "benefiting adults who use cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products and completely switch to these products."
• Now the company is adding a $600 million plant in Aurora, Colorado, to boost production.

The big question: Will the Trump administration be friendly to nicotine pouches?

• So far the new leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services and the FDA have said little about their approach to tobacco and nicotine product regulation.
• An HHS spokesperson recently told Axios that the FDA's "position is centered on reducing the harm caused by nicotine addiction — particularly through combustible tobacco products like cigarettes — while exploring strategies to make less harmful alternatives available to adults who are trying to quit smoking."
• "Nicotine itself, while addictive, is not the primary cause of smoking-related disease and death. Those are caused by the thousands of harmful chemicals in combustible tobacco," the spokesperson said.
• The FDA is "working to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes to minimally addictive or non-addictive levels, aiming to prevent youth initiation and help current smokers quit."

The bottom line: Once you become aware of nicotine pouches, you'll start to spot people using them.

President Trump said the U.S. will begin sending letters Monday to other countries setting a tariff rate on their imports.

Why it matters: After months of threats, Trump is abruptly re-escalating the trade war.

• For businesses craving certainty, who've had a period of relative calm of late, the move could once again upset that balance.
• It also injects a new risk into financial markets that have largely moved on to a post-tariff world. European stocks, and U.S. stock futures, fell Friday as Trump warned the letters were coming.

Catch up quick: Trump told reporters late Friday aboard Air Force One that about a dozen letters would go out Monday.

• He didn't say which nations would be targeted, or what rates would be set.
• On Thursday, he said the rates in the letters would go into effect August 1 — and warned some could be as high as 70%.

Yes, but: The administration has used a similar tactic before — taking an aggressive posture on coming tariffs, but with a deadline just far enough out that trading partners could still bring last-minute offers the president would be willing to accept.

• Reports in recent days suggest multiple trading partners, including South Korea and Thailand, are scrambling to do just that.

Flashback: Trump set a new regime of sweeping global tariffs on April 2, only to pause much of it a week later.

• At that time, his administration promised 90 trade days in 90 days. Through the first 85 days, it made three — with the UK, China and Vietnam.
• In mid-May, Trump began indicating deals weren't really necessary, because the U.S. would simply send letters to trading partners in subsequent days setting a rate.
• He made the same threat again in mid-June, and once more late in the month, noting he preferred the letters as a simpler solution than complex talks with dozens of countries.

Between the lines: Though the tariff pause is due to expire July 9, some countries, like China and Canada, have separate deadlines later in the month or next month.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated the deadlines are fungible and the goal is to be done with trade deals by Labor Day.

What we're watching: It's not clear how aggressive Trump intends to be with these new tariff rates.

• The Vietnam deal, for example, included a 20% rate — double the global baseline Trump imposed, but less than half what the country originally faced in April.

Authorities say 24 people died and between 23 and 25 children are missing from a girls camp after severe flash floods in Central Texas.

The big picture: The catastrophic flooding happened early Friday morning in an area about 65 miles northwest of San Antonio after the Guadalupe River surged following heavy rainfall.

The latest: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said during a news conference Friday night that 24 people were confirmed dead.

• Officials said more than 230 people were rescued or evacuated, most by helicopter, throughout Friday.

Zoom in: The river surged to as high 26 feet in just 45 minutes and reached nearly 30 feet in some areas, washing out roads, authorities said.

• "The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never" in any forecasts, said chief Nim Kidd of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
• The floods came so fast even an emergency vehicle was swept away, officials said.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said during a news conference Friday afternoon that Camp Mystic had more than 700 kids and began evacuating overnight.

What they're saying: "Rest assured, no one knew this kind of flood was coming. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States," Kerry County Judge Rob Kelly said when asked why campsites weren't evacuated Thursday night.

• Patrick said officials would do "everything humanly possible" to find the missing girls, adding Texas officials have been in touch with the White House.
• Gov. Greg Abbott, who on Friday night declared a state of disaster, called the event an "extraordinary catastrophe" and vowed to continue providing resources until everyone is accounted for.

Editor's note: This is a developing story and has been updated with new information.

President Trump on Friday signed his signature tax and spending legislation, the "big beautiful bill," into law, meeting a July 4 deadline that at times appeared out of reach.

Why it matters: It's a huge achievement for Trump and congressional Republicans that will reshape federal fiscal policy for years to come. The megabill cuts funding for social safety measures, extends tax cuts —primarily for the wealthy — and finances Trump's immigration agenda.

Driving the news: Trump signed the measure as part of a highly staged White House Independence Day celebration featuring a bomber jet flyover and the annual fireworks on the National Mall.

What they're saying: Trump called the bill "the greatest victory yet" while addressing a crowd at the White House in a speech saying his administration has kept its promises.

• "This is the single most popular bill ever signed," he said despite polls showing it's deeply unpopular.
• He also praised the Iran mission and "unmatched" military, which he talked about rebuilding and modernizing.

Catch up quick: The House narrowly cleared the bill for Trump's signature Thursday after it passed the Senate two days earlier.

• Both moderate and conservative House Republicans called for adjustments to the bill after the Senate made changes, but none were made before the final vote.

State of play: The legislation slashes food and health benefits for the poorest Americans, which could lead to overcrowded emergency rooms, an increase in chronic health care issues, more medical debt and ballooning hunger.

• Meanwhile, it boosts funding for immigration enforcement, allowing the administration to approximately double immigrant detention capacity and hire significantly more enforcement personnel.

Behind the scenes: Polling from throughout June showed that Americans largely disapprove of the megabill.

• Ahead of midterm elections, Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families.
• Democrats have their own campaign planned based around their opposition to the bill, which they're planning to make a centerpiece of their strategy for taking back the House in 2026.

Go deeper:

• Where SNAP cuts in Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" could hit Americans hardest
• How the GOP spending bill will fund immigration enforcement
• "Big, beautiful bill" pushes millions of people away from social safety net

Elon Musk on Friday floated an electoral strategy for his hypothetical political party, via a post on X.

Why it matters: Musk is the world's richest man and his dollars could make a difference in tight races next November.

Catch up quick: Musk helped bankroll President Trump's reelection, but the pair since have fallen out.

• Most recently, Musk has been an outspoken critic of Trump's signature legislation, which the Tesla CEO believes is fiscally irresponsible and hurts America's global competitiveness.

What he's saying: Musk first asked X followers if they "want independence from the two party (some would say uniparty) system," and thus would support the creation of "the America Party."

He then added:

The bottom line: Musk didn't identify any specific races, so for now this is just a trial balloon.

President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a call on Friday that the U.S. wants to help Ukraine with air defense, due to escalating Russian attacks, a Ukrainian official and a source with knowledge of the call said.

Why it matters: Earlier this week the Pentagon paused a weapons shipment, including air defense interceptors and ammunition, to Ukraine's army.

• The decision caught Ukraine and many Trump administration officials surprise.

Behind the scenes: The two sources said the call between Trump and Zelensky lasted around 40 minutes, with a major focus on Ukraine's air defense needs.

• One source said Trump was aware of the recent Russia escalation, including both air strikes on Ukrainian cities and on the frontline.
• "Trump said he wants to help with air defense and that he will check what was put on hold if anything," the source said.
• The Ukrainian official said Trump and Zelensky agreed that teams from the U.S. and Ukraine soon will meet to discuss air defense and other weapons supplies.
• The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

What they are saying: Zelensky wrote on X that he spoke to Trump about "opportunities in air defense" and that they "agreed that we will work together to strengthen protection of our skies."

• "We - in Ukraine - are grateful for all the support provided. It helps us protect lives, safeguard our freedom and independence. We have achieved a lot together with America and we support all efforts to stop the killings and restore just, lasting, and dignified peace. A noble agreement for peace is needed," Zelensky wrote.

Driving the news: Trump spoke with Russian president Putin on Thursday about the war in Ukraine, but later stressed that no progress has been made.

• Putin told Trump that Russia will not give up on its war objectives in Ukraine, signaling he isn't interested in peace anytime soon.
• After the call, Russia escalated its air strikes on Ukraine — launching hundreds of drones and a dozen ballistic missiles.
• "I am very disappointed with the conversation I had with Putin because I don't think he's there. He's not looking to stop. I wasn't happy with the conversation," Trump told reporters on Friday morning.

President Trump on Friday morning said he was unaware that the word "Shylock" is considered by some to be antisemitic, after using it during a Thursday night rally in Iowa.

What to know: Shylock, the villain of Shakespeare's "The Merchant of Venice," was written as a greedy and vengeful Jewish moneylender who eventually is forced to convert to Christianity.

What Trump said at the rally: "Think of that: no death tax, no estate tax, no going to the banks and borrowing from, in some cases, a fine banker. And in some cases, Shylocks and bad people."

What the Anti Defamation League said via X: "The term 'Shylock' evokes a centuries-old antisemitic trope about Jews and greed that is extremely offensive and dangerous. President Trump's use of the term is very troubling and irresponsible. It underscores how lies and conspiracies about Jews remain deeply entrenched in our country. Words from our leaders matter and we expect more from the President of the United States."

What Trump said the next day to reporters: "I've never heard it that way. To me, Shylock is somebody that's a money lender at high rates. I've never heard it that way, you view it differently than me. I've never heard that."

Flashback: In 2014, then-Vice President Biden used the term "Shylocks" to refer to rapacious bankers, after which he apologized for his "poor choice of words."

With B-2 bombers booming above, President Trump will deliver a motherlode of campaign promises for his supporters Friday, decimate his predecessor's priorities and demonstrate his total dominance over the Republican Party.

Why it matters: The MAGA mega bill is more than just an indisputable victory for the president and the party he has remade in his image.

• It's also a stinging defeat for Democrats — but has given them fodder for the 2026 midterms.
• With the stroke of his signature, Trump will undo the solar, wind and electric vehicles tax cuts that were at the core of President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act.
• Trump will sign into law some long-term GOP goals, like making business tax credits permanent, changing how Congress counts tax cuts, pouring billions into border security, and slowing the growth of Medicaid and SNAP spending.
• The big tax cuts will apply this year. Most of the spending cuts will hit after the midterms.
• "It's going to make this country into a rocket ship," Trump said.

Zoom out: The country will little note, nor long remember how Congress passed this bill: the all-nighters, the nail-biters and the GOP false fighters, who ultimately tapped out for Trump.

• But Democrats will make it their mission to ensure that voters don't forget what Trump and congressional Republicans did in the bill.
• The tax cuts, they say, will benefit the already-wealthy the most — and the Medicaid cuts that target the poor could devastate health care options for millions.

Democrats will concede they lost on policy, but convinced they'll win — eventually — on the politics.

• For eight hours and 45 minutes Thursday, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries held up the GOP-led chamber's vote in favor of Trump's big bill, energizing his party (and his donors) by previewing attack lines certain to be distilled to 30-second TV ads for the 2026 campaign.
• "This is a crime scene," he thundered from the House floor.

The intrigue: Democrats will mischievously borrow some Republican lines that were dropped along the way amid GOP anxiety over the bill's impacts.

• "The Medicaid stuff in here is bad," said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).
• "Garbage," declared Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) earlier this week. "It's a good bill overall," he said after voting for it.
• Expect those comments — along with Sen. Joni Ernst's "we are all going to die" shrug when the Iowa Republican was asked about Medicaid cuts — to be featured on local TV stations.

By the numbers: In all, the tax cuts total $4.5 trillion over a decade, leading to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

• Republicans will say the real winners are the 83% of households that would have been hit with a tax increase if Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had expired at the end of the year.
• Democrats will focus on the more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which is projected to put nearly 12 million Americans at risk of losing their health care and threaten rural hospitals across the country.
• Trump is giving his MAGA faithful $170 billion in border and immigration funds and $150 billion for defense spending.
• The oil and gas industry got many of its priorities.
• Also tucked into the bill: a rise in the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Then there are the Trumpian touches to the bill, such as no taxes on tips, a suggestion he got from a Las Vegas waitress.

• And for babies lucky enough to be born during Trump's second reign, there are $1,000 checks, to be placed in "Trump accounts."
• But Trump quietly gave up on his plans to tax carried interest as regular income, a major win for the private equity industry.

The bottom line: Four score and seven days ago, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest point of Trump's presidency.

• Yesterday it closed at a new record high, its seventh this year.
• The economy — for now — appears to be shrugging off his tariffs, with the Labor Department reporting 147,000 new jobs in June, defying expectations.

Starting with America's 250th birthday celebration, President Trump is planning a years-long mega-celebration that puts him at the center of the world's biggest events.

Why it matters: Trump's vision for the semiquincentennial goes beyond purely American fare to showcase the country's military, economic and cultural power on a global stage.

• His expansive vision for a nonstop American celebration includes the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, The Atlantic recently reported.
• Trump is floating additional programming like a "Great American State Fair," "Patriot Games" and a "Freedom Plane" inspired by the Bicentennial-era "Freedom Train."
• In keeping with his love of spectacle, a New Year's Eve-style ball drop in Times Square has been discussed.

Driving the news: Trump's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Thursday night served as the formal kickoff to the celebrations and an opportunity to brag about congressional Republicans passing his "one big, beautiful bill."

• The president soft-launched 250 this year with a rare military parade to honor the Army in D.C., which coincided with nationwide "No Kings" and anti-ICE protests.
• More military branches' birthdays will be recognized this fall, with celebrations planned for the Marines and Navy.
• Trump said last night his 250th anniversary plans include a UFC fight on the grounds of the White House.

Zoom in: Some of the planned activities for America 250 are more squarely around American pride, like a student-focused America's Field Trip.

• Trump wants his proposed sculpture park, dubbed the National Garden of American Heroes, to be ready by July 2026. The plans feature life-size statues of figures like Ronald Reagan, Whitney Houston and Jackie Robinson — "all approved by Trump," as the Wall Street Journal reported.
• "We're going to have a big, big celebration, as you know — 250 years," Trump said at Arlington Cemetery in late May. "In some ways, I'm glad I missed that second term because I wouldn't be your president for that. Can you imagine? I missed that four years. And now look what I have."

Reality check: The turbocharged celebrations come as Americans report record-low levels of patriotic pride.

State of play: Preparations for America's 250th birthday have been underway since roughly 2016 under former President Obama, though they've taken a more MAGA bent since January.

• There are two main organizers at the national level: the White House's Task Force 250, which Trump chairs and established via an executive order in his first week in office, and the congressional America250 Commission, which was established in 2016, meant to be nonpartisan and is backed by a nonprofit.

Ex-Fox News producer Ariel Abergel, who interned in Trump's first White House and finished college in 2021, is now America250's executive director.

• "We are completely aligned with President Trump's vision to make America250 the most patriotic celebration in American history," Abergel said in a statement.
• Other Trump allies like fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke and Trump adviser Chris LaCivita serve roles in the foundation supporting the America250 commission's work.
• Outside of the federal planning effort, expect state-level programming across the country.

The intrigue: Donors to America250 include companies that have been seen as Trump-friendly, like Amazon, Coinbase and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from Ariel Abergel, executive director of America250.

President Trump will host a UFC fight at the White House as part of celebrations marking 250 years since the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, he announced at a Thursday rally in Iowa.

The big picture: "Every one of our national park battlefields and historic sites are going to have special events in honor of 'America250' and I even think we're going to have a UFC fight," Trump said on the eve of the July Fourth holiday during a speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines that kicked off yearlong 250th anniversary celebrations.

• The president's links to the Ultimate Fighting Championship date back to at least 2001, when the since-closed Trump Taj Mahal hosted the mixed martial arts enterprise.
• Trump's attended multiple UFC fights since then and is good friends with the enterprise's CEO, Dana White, who introduced Trump at the Republican National Convention before he accepted the GOP presidential nomination last year.

Zoom in: Trump said White would organize the White House UFC event.

• "It's going to be a championship fight, full fight, like 20,000 to 25,000 people and we're going to do that as part of '250' also," he said.
• Other celebrations will include "the great American State Fair" that will "bring America250 programming for fairgrounds across the country, culminating in a giant patriotic festival next summer on the National Mall, featuring exhibits from all 50 states," according to Trump.

What they're saying: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "dead serious" about the UFC fight plans, per a White House pool report.

• Representatives for the UFC did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

What we're watching: Trump plans to hold a "Signing Celebration" at the White House on Friday as he writes his "big, beautiful bill" into law 250 years to the day that the Declaration of Independence was signed, according to a Truth Social post he wrote ahead of the Des Moines rally.

Go deeper: Casting himself as a fighter, Trump aligns with UFC

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump met with the Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman at the White House on Thursday and discussed the situation with Iran and other regional issues, according to a source familiar with the meeting.

Why it matters: Saudi Arabia wants to de-escalate tension in the region after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

• The talks took place ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Monday meeting with Trump at the White House.
• The Trump administration wants to push for a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming months.

Details: After his meeting with Trump, the Saudi foreign minister spoke on the phone with Chief of Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi.

• "We discussed developments in the region and the efforts being made to maintain security and stability," wrote Bin Salman, who is a younger brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• Bin Salman also met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
• The meeting between Trump and the Saudi defense minister was first reported by Fox News.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

Driving the news: Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, Axios reported on Thursday.

• Araghchi spoke with on the phone on Thursday with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Eide and discussed the efforts to deescalate tensions in the region, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
• Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran wants to speak with the U.S. and "it is time that they do."
• The president said the U.S. doesn't want to hurt Iran. "I know they want to meet and if it is necessary I will do it," he said.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to note that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the government — but the burden falls far from equally on different states.

The big picture: Who pays for tariffs is a long-settled issue — American businesses do, to the tune of billions of dollars, in places like California and Texas especially.

Driving the news: Economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide shared a new analysis with Axios showing the state-by-state cost of tariffs imposed by Trump from January through May.

• These are presidential tariffs — that is, tariffs imposed by Trump rather than Congress, mostly this term but some dating to his first term.

By the numbers: From January 1 to May 31 of this year, California faced a tariff impact of $11.3 billion, by far the highest in the country.

• Texas was a distant second at $6 billion, followed by Michigan at $3.3 billion.
• In total, in 17 states companies faced a total impact of at least $1 billion over the first five months of the year.
• At the other end, 11 states had a burden of less than $100 million, with the smallest hits to Wyoming and Alaska at just over $16 million each.

The intrigue: The burden crosses political boundaries, too — more than half of the most-impacted states voted for Trump in the last election.

The bottom line: Recent deals, like one with Vietnam, prove tariffs aren't going away anytime soon.

House Republicans' campaign arm is going on the offensive in the battle for public opinion over President Trump's "big, beautiful bill."

Why it matters: Democrats have hammered Republicans over the legislation's deep cuts to Medicaid, but the National Republican Congressional Committee thinks they have the winning message to expand their numbers in the 2026 midterms.

• Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families, according to an internal memo first shared with Axios.
• "Every Democrat voted to hurt working families and to protect the status quo. ... House Republicans will be relentless in making this vote the defining issue of 2026," the memo says.

Yes, but: Republicans have their work cut out for them.

• Recent polls have shown that only 23%–38% of American adults and voters support the legislation.

Zoom in: The House-passed bill makes permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts and adds additional tax benefits — no tax on tips or overtime and a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older.

• The NRCC is highlighting a $1,700 tax cut for families of four in their messaging efforts.
• Trump is set to speak Thursday evening at the Iowa State Fairgrounds — an event that's part July 4 celebration and part "big, beautiful bill" victory lap.

State of play: The House narrowly passed the bill 218-214, and GOP members with an array of concerns have spent days publicly dunking on the measure.

• Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) called the bill "morally and fiscally bankrupt" in a post on X.
• Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) said the bill makes "harmful cuts to Medicaid" and puts "critical funding at risk."
• Both ultimately voted in favor of the bill with no changes.

The other side: Democrats are already vowing to make the bill a centerpiece of their midterm strategy, too.

• "From now until November 2026, the DCCC will continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause," a memo from the House Democrats' campaign arm says. "Republicans will lose the majority in 2026 and the Big, Ugly Bill will be the reason why."

Zoom in: The NRCC is confident that work requirements in Medicaid and increased border security funding resonate with voters, and they plan to spotlight those provisions.

• The memo cites an internal GOP poll that found 72% of voters support work requirements, and 86% support removing deceased or ineligible recipients from Medicaid.

The bottom line: Republicans still have a highly skeptical public to convince.

• Republicans are aware polling as a whole isn't pretty, Axios' Stef Kight reports, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) predicted last week that those numbers would improve after the final bill is passed.

Editor's note: This story is corrected to state that the bill will give a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older (not eliminate a tax on Social Security).