Opioid abuse is as much an economic problem as a public health one, according to a comprehensive analysis provided first to Axios that concludes it costs an average of nearly $700,000 to treat each affected person.

Why it matters: The cost burden falls unevenly, with states in a belt stretching through Appalachia to New England typically having bigger caseloads and a higher cost per case.

• Opioid use disorder cost the U.S. an estimated $4 trillion last year, per the analysis from Avalere, which used 2017 figures to project 2024 net costs.
• "While this is a cost to government, it's also a cost to private businesses, and the huge cost, of course, is to the individuals who have OUD," said Margaret Scott, a principal at Avalere and author of the report.

By the numbers: The projected cost of opioid use disorder in 2024 ranged from $419,527 per case in Idaho to more than $2.4 million in D.C. That covers lost productivity, health insurance costs, property lost to crime and other variables.

• The cost per case totaled more than $1 million in West Virginia, Rhode Island, Ohio and Maryland.
• Some of the regional variation in costs is from lost tax revenue, which varies by state. The local availability of treatment for opioid use disorder may also drive the cost, Scott said.

State of play: Opioid use disorder — defined as frequent opioid use and unsuccessful efforts to quit — is estimated to affect more than 6 million people in the United States.

• The cumulative economic burden on patients, including years of life lost and reduced quality of life, exceeded $3 trillion in 2024, Avalere estimated.
• Private businesses absorbed more than $467 billion in costs from lost productivity and health insurance costs while the federal government bore about $118 billion in Medicare and other federal insurance costs, lost taxes and criminal justice expenses.
• It cost state and local governments more than $94 billion, with about $42 billion of that going toward criminal justice costs.
• The Trump administration in March released its own analysis that estimated illicit opioids cost the U.S. about $2.7 trillion in 2023.

Where it stands: Treatment can defray the costs by more than 40% in some instances, the analysis found.

• Behavioral therapy alongside long-acting injectable buprenorphine — a treatment that reduces the risk of future overdoses — generated an estimated $295,000 savings per case, the biggest cost-saver of the options Avalere analyzed.
• Therapy plus methadone and therapy plus buprenorphine administered through mucous membranes like the mouth each save about $271,000. Behavioral therapy alone saves a project $144,000 per case.
• The treatment savings estimates assume that patients fully adhere to the regimen for a year.

Yes, but: Federal data from 2022 showed that only one-quarter of adults who needed medication treatment for OUD actually got it.

• Less than half of adults who received any OUD care that year got medication treatment.
• However, buprenorphine distribution increased significantly between 2019 and 2022 as policy changes during the COVID-19 pandemic allowed people to start treatment via telehealth.

Between the lines: Overdose deaths in the U.S. fell to the lowest level since 2019 last year, partly due to expanded availability of the overdose reversal drug naloxone. An estimated 80,391 people died from drug overdoses in 2024, down nearly 27% from the previous year, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

• But some addiction experts say cuts to federal grant funding and other program changes led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could hurt addiction recovery programs.

The fine print: Indivior, a pharmaceutical company specializing in treatments for opioid use disorder, funded the Avalere analysis.

Hot, dry and windy weather that helps wildfires spread is becoming more common across much of the U.S. amid climate change, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: What used to be several months of "fire season" is stretching in some places into a yearlong phenomenon, straining fire departments and others tasked with controlling or containing wild blazes.

Driving the news: The number of "fire weather" days rose by 37 in the Southwest and 21 in the West on average between 1973 and 2024, per an analysis from Climate Central, a climate research group.

• Some areas, including parts of Texas, California and New Mexico, now experience "around two more months of fire weather per year compared to a half century ago," the group says.

Zoom in: Fire weather is also getting more frequent in some eastern and northeastern parts of the country, like New Jersey and New York's Long Island.

• Both areas experienced notable wildfires in recent months.

Yes, but: Fire weather days decreased in a handful of areas, such as central North Dakota (-12) and northern Maine (-8).

How it works: Climate Central's analysis is based on data from 476 nationwide weather stations and is broken down by 245 climate divisions across the continental U.S.

• The group defined a "fire weather day" as one with temperatures of at least 45°-55°F (depending on the season), relative humidity within 5% of regional thresholds, and sustained wind speeds of 15mph or more — all happening together during at least two hourly measurements on a given day.

Stunning stat: Human activities (unattended campfires, sparks from power lines, etc.) start a whopping 87% of wildfires, Climate Central says, citing the National Interagency Fire Center.

• Regardless of how a fire starts, "fire weather" can give them the push they need to spread and grow.

The big picture: Extreme wildfire events more than doubled in frequency and magnitude globally over the past two decades, a recent study found.

What's next: States like California and Idaho are preparing for what could be a challenging fire season as higher temperatures and faster winds risk turning even the smallest sparks into massive conflagrations.

Tesla Motors and SpaceX saw their brand reputations crater in the past year, according to new Axios Harris Poll 100 survey results.

Why it matters: Elon Musk's polarizing political activism appears to have come at the expense of his largest companies, as Republicans expressed more favorable opinions than did Democrats.

By the numbers: Tesla was in 8th place in the 2021 reputation ranking of America's 100 most visible companies, but last year tumbled to 63rd and now is near the very bottom at 95th.

• It placed dead last in "character," while placing near the bottom in areas like "ethics" and "citizenship."
• Six other automakers place higher, with the highest being Toyota at No. 6 and the lowest being Ford at No. 62.
• Tesla did not immediately respond to an email for comment.

Zoom in: SpaceX experienced a similar reputation quotient score decline between 2024 and 2025.

• On the one hand, SpaceX may care less than Tesla does, because it's not consumer-facing.
• On the other, the 28.7% difference between Republicans and Democrats could foretell procurement problems were there to be a political power shift.

Last, but not least: The company formerly known as Twitter also scored poorly, although that's been true since even before Musk's ownership.

Go deeper: The Axios Harris Poll 100's methodology

Ukrainian President Zelensky and five other European leaders joined a conference call with President Trump immediately after his call with Vladimir Putin on Monday hoping to hear that Putin had agreed to a ceasefire — or the U.S. would impose penalties on him for refusing to do so.

• Instead, Trump said Putin had agreed to negotiate, stressed the U.S. wouldn't be involved in those negotiations, and pushed back against the idea of imposing sanctions on Putin at the current time, two sources who were on the call and a third source briefed on the call told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump gave the impression he was getting closer to withdrawing from the issue altogether. Some leaders on the call seemed "surprised" or "shocked," the sources said.

• "I think something's going to happen. And if it doesn't, I just back away and they're going to have to keep going. Again, this was a European situation, and should have remained a European situation," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office several hours after his calls.

How it happened: Trump and Zelensky had a brief call Monday morning, and Trump asked his Ukrainian counterpart what he should tell Putin, the sources said.

• Zelensky was happy Trump called him to consult. He requested that Trump demand an immediate ceasefire, threaten new sanctions against Russia, and offer no concessions to Putin without consulting Ukraine, the sources say.

Behind the scenes: When the call with Putin ended, Trump called Zelensky again. This time the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Finland and the European Commission were also on the line.

• "The second call was longer and of a different character than the first one," Zelensky said later.
• While a European source on the call told Axios it was "constructive," another source said Zelensky felt it was "bad." The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump told the leaders that Putin agreed to start direct negotiations on a ceasefire immediately. A source on the call said there were a few seconds of puzzled silence.

• Zelensky then pointed out that Putin had previously agreed to negotiate, and the first round of ceasefire talks took place on Friday in Istanbul. Trump didn't directly respond, the sources said.
• The sources said Zelensky and several other leaders on the call told Trump it had been his idea to start the peace talks with an immediate 30-day ceasefire.

Friction point: Other European leaders on the call asked about the possibility of U.S. sanctions against Russia, but Trump said he didn't think was a good idea and stressed that he thinks Putin wants a deal.

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni jumped in to ask why there couldn't be a ceasefire for at least two weeks heading into the talks, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz asked what concessions Russia was willing to make, the sources said.
• Trump told the group Putin will present a "peace memo" with his terms for a ceasefire and for ending the war. A source on the call said Trump told Zelensky and the European leaders he asked Putin to present "something people can agree to" and not a proposal that will be rejected immediately.
• Zelensky said previous rounds of negotiations with Putin, including last week, didn't produce anything and stressed that if Trump doesn't push, Putin won't move, the sources said.

Between the lines: Leaders on the call seemed surprised that Trump seemed relatively content with what he heard from Putin, and presented it as a new development, even though the Russian leader did not seem to have changed his position at all, the sources said.

What to watch: Trump told the group that Russia and Ukraine can conduct bilateral direct negotiations without any third party mediators because the parties best understand all the details of the conflict.

• Meloni and Merz said the U.S. and European countries need to be involved in the negotiations. "Someone needs to be a judge," Meloni said. Merz proposed holding a meeting with all the parties present.
• Trump later suggested the Vatican as a venue for the talks.
• "I think something's going to happen. And if it doesn't, I just back away and they're going to have to keep going. Again, this was a European situation, and should have remained a European situation," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office several hours after his calls.

Where it stands: On the call, Finland President Alexander Stubb asked Trump what the next steps were. "I don't know. Someone has to come out and say whether the negotiations are going well or badly, and then we'll decide what to do," Trump said.

Former President Biden's disclosure that he had Stage 4 prostate cancer was quickly met with sympathy late Sunday. By Monday morning, the questions — from Democrats and Republicans alike — had begun.

Why it matters: The timing of Biden's announcement, coupled with the way his handlers tried to cover up his health issues in the past, fueled speculation about how long he'd known about the cancer.

People in both parties, whether they love Joe Biden or despise him, wondered whether the announcement was timed to change the subject after a week of reports about his physical and mental deterioration when he was president.

• Those reports included recordings, first posted Friday by Axios, of Biden being interviewed by prosecutors in 2023 about his handling of classified documents. Biden had such difficulty recalling events that prosecutor Robert Hur later described him as a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."

Zoom in: On Monday, medical experts didn't exactly calm the suspicions about Biden's cancer diagnosis — even as they said it was treatable and that he could live several years with the disease.

• "He's had this for many years, maybe even a decade, growing there and spreading," Ezekiel Emanuel, an oncologist who was a Biden White House COVID adviser, told the stunned hosts of MSNBC's "Morning Joe."
• Emanuel later told CNN that the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test used to detect prostate cancer isn't always reliable. Emanuel and other doctors noted that Biden, 82, is well beyond the 55-70 recommended age range for prostate cancer screening.
• But given how thoroughly presidents' health is scrutinized, it would be surprising if Biden hadn't been tested before his recent symptoms appeared, Emanuel said on "Morning Joe": "It's a little strange."

Zoom out: Several former Biden White House aides acknowledged they were perplexed.

• "I love Joe Biden," a former campaign and White House aide told Axios. "But I don't feel the same about some of the people around him. So I feel terrible saying this: I just don't know what to believe."

President Trump and the White House initially offered sympathy for Biden and did not engage in speculation on Sunday.

• But on Monday, Trump told reporters: "I'm surprised the public wasn't notified a long time ago ... I think if you take a look, it's the same doctor who said Joe was cognitively fine."

Some of Trump's MAGA loyalists struck a similar chord on social media, sending a mix of prayers and I-told-you-so messages about Biden's health — an issue they'd been harping on for years.

• Vice President Vance questioned the care Biden received and whether his advisers were honest, telling reporters: "We can pray for good health — but also recognize that if you're not in good enough health to do the job, you shouldn't be doing the job."
• Donald Trump Jr. asked on X whether former First Lady Jill Biden was part of "another coverup."

Flashback: The Bidens have been silent about cancer in the family before, according to "Original Sin," a book by Axios' Alex Thompson and CNN's Jake Tapper that's being released today.

• When the Bidens' son Beau was attorney general of Delaware in 2013, he had brain surgery to remove a tumor and was diagnosed with Stage 4 glioblastoma — one of the deadliest forms of brain cancer.
• Beau and then-Vice President Biden's teams deliberated whether to explain his situation publicly, but decided to say nothing for months, according to "Original Sin."

In February 2014, Dr. Wai-Kwan Alfred Yung released a statement that Beau had a "clean bill of health."

• Beau Biden died 15 months later, soon after he left office.
• The book says that for the last year of his life, as he had difficulties with speech and other everyday tasks, Beau Biden was quietly flown around the country for experimental treatments and usually admitted into hospitals under an alias: George Lincoln.

Even some members of the Biden family didn't understand the lack of transparency.

• According to "Original Sin," Beau's wife, Hallie, expressed frustration about concealing the disease rather than telling people. The public would rally around Beau, she argued to friends. But Joe and Beau Biden opposed going public.

What they're saying: A Biden spokesperson declined to comment.

Many young people are more willing than their parents to share personal data, giving companies deeper insight into their lives.

Why it matters: Selling data is becoming the new selling plasma.

Case in point: Generation Lab, a youth polling company, is launching a new product, Verb.AI, today — betting that buying this data is the future of polling.

• "We think corporations have extracted user data without fairly compensating people for their own data," says Cyrus Beschloss, CEO of Generation Lab. "We think users should know exactly what data they're giving us and should feel good about what they're receiving in return."

How it works: Generation Lab offers people cash — $50 or more per month, depending on use and other factors — to download a tracker onto their phones.

• The product takes about 90 seconds to download, and once it’s on your phone, it tracks things like what you browse, what you buy, which streaming apps you use — all anonymously. There are also things it doesn't track, like activity on your bank account.
• Verb then uses that data to create a digital twin of you that lives in a central database and knows your preferences.

Say a political advocacy group wants to know where women under 30 get their news, they can use Verb to query one or all the twins who fit that demographic in an interface that feels like ChatGPT.

• If a venture capital firm wants to figure out which apps are trending among young people, they can ask.

The intrigue: Generation Lab says this method of polling will give companies, nonprofits, and news organizations more accurate information about how young people really think by tracking their behavior instead of asking them about it.

• "For decades, market research has been the equivalent of a doctor asking a patient to describe their symptoms. VERB is an MRI machine," Generation Lab's pitch deck says.
• The polling company is aiming to get to 5,000 users of the tracker by the end of September.

Between the lines: Many younger Americans consider sharing data the tradeoff for being online. They're already giving away their data for free, and are even more willing to share it for cash.

• 88% of Gen Z is open to sharing personal information with social media companies, 20 points higher than older generations, eMarketer notes.
• 33% of Gen Z agrees or strongly agrees with the statement “I don’t mind being tracked by websites or apps,” compared with 22% of older adults, according to a 2023 survey from the cybersecurity company Malwarebytes.
• Gen Z-ers and millennials are also more likely to expect incentives or rewards for sharing data — whether that's money or a personalized social media algorithm, a 2022 Euromonitor International study found.

Reality check: Despite their relative comfort with sharing data, Gen Z-ers and millennials are also likelier to pay for increased security or delete data after they're done using a service, McKinsey notes.

AI makers are flooding the market with a new wave of coding agents promising to relieve human programmers of busy work.

The big picture: Automating the routine aspects of technical labor will almost certainly transform and downsize the tech industry workforce — but there's no guarantee it will alleviate software development's biggest headaches.

Driving the news: Microsoft Monday announced a new AI coding agent for Github Copilot that's good for "time-consuming but boring tasks."

• "The agent excels at low-to-medium complexity tasks in well-tested codebases, from adding features and fixing bugs to extending tests, refactoring code, and improving documentation," Microsoft's post says.
• Github's move follows Friday's announcement by OpenAI of Codex, a "research preview" of a new coding agent that can "work on many tasks in parallel."
• Notably, the Github Copilot agent is powered not by Codex or any other tool from Microsoft partner OpenAI, but instead by Anthropic Claude 3.7 Sonnet, per Microsoft.

The intrigue: Tech leaders have sent mixed messages on just how much work they see ahead for programmers.

• Amazon Web Services' then-boss Matt Garman caused a stir last year when he suggested the need for human coding could disappear within two years, However, he later told Axios that his comments were taken out of context.
• "I think it's incredibly exciting time for developers," he told us last year. "There's a whole bunch of work that developers do today that's not fun."
• "If you think about documenting your code, if you think about upgrading Java versions, if you think about looking for bugs, that's that's not what developers love doing. They love thinking about, 'How do I go solve problems?' "

Why it matters: Business transformations that start in Silicon Valley usually make their way into the wider economy.

• Silicon Valley's "dogfooding" tradition ensures that it will avidly apply new technologies to its own business first.
• Both Microsoft and Google are now claiming that roughly 30% of the code they produce is AI-written.

Coding agents, like other generative AI tools, continue to "hallucinate," or make stuff up.

• But programs, unlike other kinds of language products, have a built-in pass-fail test: Either they run or they don't.
• That gives programmers one early checkpoint to guard against bad code.

Yes, but: AI-generated code likely also contains tons of other errors that don't show up today.

• That will cause nightmares in the future as programs age, get used more widely, or face unexpected tests from unpredictable users.

Zoom out: The software industry's assumption that what works inside tech will work everywhere else could be sorely tested when these techniques get pushed out beyond Silicon Valley.

• AI's usefulness in writing code may not easily transfer to other kinds of work that are less abstract and more rooted in physical reality — witness the many setbacks and challenges the autonomous vehicle industry has faced.

Between the lines: Nobody doubts that AI means tech firms will write more code using fewer employees. But no one yet knows exactly where these companies will continue to find competitive advantage.

• AI models are much more likely to be interchangeable than human organizations and cultures.

What's next: As coding agents shoulder routine labor, product designers and creative engineers will use "vibe coding" — improvisational rough drafting via "throw it at the wall and see what works" AI prompting — to do fast prototyping of new ideas.

The bottom line: The biggest challenges in creating software tend to arise from poorly conceived specifications and misinterpretations of data, both of which are often rooted in confusion over human needs.

• Today's large language models are ill-equipped to tackle those problems.
• But software developers who excel at navigating the boundaries between human desire and machine capability should continue to find themselves in demand.

The MAGA masses are growing disillusioned with Justice Department officials who are failing to deliver damning information on a laundry list of hot-button issues — especially Jeffrey Epstein's suicide.

Why it matters: The movement's back-against-the-wall mentality is kicking up fresh suspicions that nefarious government actors are out to stall President Trump's agenda.

• Drumbeat calls for repercussions in the Epstein case — among others — are not going anywhere, and the administration will likely have to answer to the base until some handcuffs click.

Driving the news: Kash Patel and Dan Bongino — the FBI's No. 1 and No. 2 officials — insisted in a Fox News interview Sunday that Epstein killed himself. Those comments contradicted a popular conspiracy theory that he was killed to protect high-profile clients of his sex trafficking network.

• MAGA podcasters were delighted and later outraged when they were invited to the White House earlier this year to get supposedly new documents on Epstein's death from Attorney General Pam Bondi, only to learn that little new information was included in their beefy binders.
• Prominent voices in the movement like Laura Loomer have also demanded arrests of Biden administration officials who, in their telling, weaponized the justice system against then-candidate Trump.

The other side: The administration has offered some overtures to the base, including Trump posting Monday that Democrats "HAVE A LOT OF EXPLAINING TO DO" for celebrity endorsements last year that he claims were paid for and amount to "AN ILLEGAL ELECTION SCAM."

• But it's not enough for MAGA.

What they're saying: After Bongino reiterated that Epstein killed himself, he was flooded with responses of disbelief.

• "WHO has bought the both of you?" one X user asked of Bongino and Patel, referencing the Fox News interview.
• "We are months into the Trump administration, past the 100-day mark, and Pam Blondi has failed to bring any real charges against anyone," Loomer, a right-wing provocateur with ties to Trump, added on "War Room" Monday, using a nickname for Bondi.

Between the lines: MAGA followers are feeling emboldened after extensive reporting about former President Biden's mental acuity and newly revealed cancer diagnosis, viewing the developments as confirmation of their suspicions and rebuttal to claims they're merely conspiracy theorists.

Reality check: Not everyone is ready to flip the table. While some people like Bondi are still building up their MAGA bona fides, others like Patel and Bongino have longstanding credibility with conspiracy-minded Trump fans — in part by echoing claims about Epstein.

• "The MAGA base's frustration is understandable, but if they think people like Bongino or Patel have 'gone native' then they've gone nuts. Pam Bondi's early Epstein flub was a symptom of trying to do too much at once, and toss some meat to the base to keep them sated. That was silly," The National Pulse's Raheem Kassam texted Axios.
• "But the underlying point remains, Kash and Dan are bad-asses at the height of their efficacy. They deserve more time and more trust."

With bipartisan support, the Senate took an important step forward on legislation that seeks to regulate stablecoin cryptocurrencies.

Why it matters: The procedural vote is a win for GENIUS Act backers after partisan fights and ethics concerns about the Trump family's crypto ventures derailed a vote earlier this month.

• The final vote to start debate on the bill was 65 to 32.
• Democratic Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and others voted to move forward.

What to watch: Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Monday that he did not think that there would be an agreement to expedite the process toward passing the bill this week.

• Expect there to be continued floor speeches and fights over potential amendment votes in the coming days and weeks.

Between the lines: The Trump family's stablecoin ventures — especially the recent $2 billion crypto deal with Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund — sparked outrage among Democrats and complicated what had been bipartisan support for the bill.

• Warner argued in a statement that despite "concerns about the Trump family's use of crypto technologies to evade oversight, hide shady financial dealings, and personally profit," senators "cannot allow that corruption to blind us to the broader reality: blockchain technology is here to stay."
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, was one of the loudest Democratic voices blaring the alarm about corruption concerns.

I've spoken with scores of CEOs and hundreds of students in recent weeks. They agree on one big thing: There's growing confusion about what constitutes strong, smart leadership in the transition to an AI world.

Why it matters: We run two companies (Axios + Axios HQ), oversee 500+ employees and spend an inordinate amount of time talking with the architects of the leading AI companies. So I wanted to share how we're approaching leadership in this volatile, hinge moment.

The big picture: America is facing the biggest, fastest, most consequential technological shift in history — at the very moment people have lost faith in the big institutions. Making matters worse, most of us feel exhausted before contemplating super-human intelligence — which is often so unimaginable or scary that it's easier to ignore than engage. Many are jamming their heads in the sand instead of exploring this new frontier.

• The result: a stunning lack of preparedness for a technology that could hit every person, every job, every company over the next year or so.
• Yes, AI might never match the hype. But we're betting it approximates the hype in the next 18 months to three years. And so are most CEOs and top government officials we talk to, even if they're strangely silent about it in public.

More than ever, it's strong, smart, high-integrity leaders, especially CEOs and heads of organizations big and small, who can provide a vital service to employees and the broader public as AI hits land.

• Here are a few ways we are trying to do this at Axios:
• Be blunt: Stop downplaying the tectonic shifts that could hit every job, starting next year. Employees need the hard truth that entire classes of jobs could be wiped away, especially if people don't quickly adapt. I recently told the Axios staff that we're done sugar-coating it, and see an urgent need for every employee to turn AI into a force multiplier for their specific work. We then gave them tools to test. My exact words to a small group of our finance, legal and talent colleagues last week: "You are committing career suicide if you're not aggressively experimenting with AI."
• Prepare people: We provided our entire staff with access to the advanced Open AI ChatGPT model, and asked for volunteers to find ways to improve productivity in every job here. They then pass what they learned to colleagues doing the same work. Shockingly, nearly half our staff volunteered. Almost every person is doing personal experimentation. This gives everyone a chance to adapt to AI before better versions upend their craft. Free versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok and other models are a great place to start. We tell most staff they should be spending 10% or more of their day using AI to discover ways to double their performance by the end of the year. Some, like coders, should shoot for 10x-ing productivity as AI improves.
• Prepare yourself: AI is both tantalizing and terrifying. It's our job as leaders to realize this, and sharpen our own thinking and explanations about how this will affect organizations and the people who rely on us. This is a moment to over-communicate, even if we admit the uncertainty and unknowns ahead. Government is doing little to raise awareness, so it's on us to explain what's coming. We can at least detail how we're handling early preparations and setting boundaries for how, when and why we'll use AI.
• Be clear-eyed: We believe many businesses will be destroyed by AI. But many will be born or made bigger and better. It's our job to get ahead of the change and leverage AI to make our companies stronger, more profitable and more enjoyable. World-changing companies will be built with just a few people. Miracle cures will be discovered by creative, persistent people who figure out how to conjure magic out of the models. Massive fortunes will be made — with tools that are basically free. Yes, much of what will happen is worrisome now, and soon will be scary. But some will master the tools, instead of vice versa. That could be you. At Axios, we see AI helping us vastly expand our local news coverage. So we're working feverishly to use the emerging tech to grow this business.
• Be leaders: So many have lost confidence in so many institutions. Don't expect the government or the AI companies to step in to restore faith at this volatile time. Truth is, government officials won't regulate or prepare the public because they see this as a race against China for global dominance. That's a valid, if incomplete, thesis. Plus, most politicians don't want to warn people of possible job losses, even if they anticipate them coming. The AI companies are focused more on speed to market than societal consequences. That's their fiduciary obligation to shareholders. So it's up to other leaders, especially CEOs, to make this transition safer and smoother. That takes wisdom, honesty, candor, smarts — and some empathy for nervous workers.
• Simplify: You'll hear a lot more from us on this topic in the year ahead. The pace of change in all jobs and all sectors will soon hit hyperspeed. The winners will be those who can simplify their business, purpose, structure, systems and work to adapt fast and smartly. One simple start to simplicity: Make sure every person at every level can name — in order of importance — the three things they must do to crush their job. Then, make sure you agree! Then, push them on how AI can help them with those three most important things.

The bottom line: Experiment assuming the current glitches — usually hallucinations or incorrect answers — will be fixed as models improve. These glitches keep us from currently using AI much beyond experimentation and augmentation.

• But we work under the assumption that one day soon the models will operate at a human-efficacy level for many tasks.

A deadly, tornado-spawning storm system was slamming the Central U.S. into Tuesday, as the Southeast braced for a fresh round of severe weather on the heels of a deadly tornadic event.

The big picture: The National Weather Service confirmed at least four tornadoes in Oklahoma and Nebraska and some 8.7 million people in half a dozen states were under tornado watches on Monday night. Tornado warnings were in effect in Arkansas and Missouri.

Lightning galore as storms erupt across the Central U.S. this evening. ⚡️⚡️⚡️ pic.twitter.com/CMyyfnvs65

— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) May 20, 2025

• At least 28 deaths have been reported and tens of thousands of lost power since the storms began slamming much of the U.S. last Friday.
• There were notable power outages in Missouri (more than 56,000 customers affected), Arkansas (over 34,000 customers) and Oklahoma (nearly 28,000 customers) early Tuesday, per utility tracker poweroutage.us.

Situation report: Among the areas being impacted on Monday night into Tuesday was Oklahoma, where multiple roads were closed due to flooding or storm cleanup.

• "Take cover now! Tornado on the ground and headed this way," said the City of Wilburton, Oklahoma, in a Monday evening Facebook post.
• Multiple properties have been damaged since storms began in the state Saturday — with 10 homes and a fire station destroyed, per an Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management statement.

Threat level: Severe thunderstorms with "damaging winds and tornadoes" — some that could be strong — were expected across parts of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley and lower Ohio River Valley Tuesday, per the NWS.

• "Heavy to excessive rainfall, which may lead to flooding, is expected over the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday," the NWS said.
• The NWS' Storm Prediction Center warned of a moderate risk, or level 4 out of 5 on the threat scale, of severe thunderstorms across much of the southern Plains and into western parts of the Mississippi Valley.
• "All severe weather hazards are likely: large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are possible," the NWS noted in a forecast discussion Monday.

Meanwhile, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall was active across most of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri with a slight risk extending across much of the Mississippi Valley, per the NWS.

• "Storms are expected to expand in coverage and may train. Some locations could see 4-5 inches in the near term through the overnight," the weather agency said.

What we're watching: Kentucky has been among the worst-affected areas from the destructive weather system, with 19 people reported killed in tornado-spawning storms — and the NWS' Louisville office said on X more strong storms were possible overnight, with severe weather set to move through the area Tuesday night.

• This could include "damaging winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes," NWS Louisville noted.
• Some storms may move through overnight, but the "largest risk" of impacts was from 12-11pm Tuesday ET, said Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear in a statement posted to his social media accounts.
• "All of Kentucky may experience storms, but there is a heightened risk for dangerous winds, hail and tornadoes in the west," he said.
• All of Kentucky may experience storms, but there is a heightened risk for dangerous winds, hail and tornadoes in the west.

Between the lines: Climate change is causing extreme precipitation events to become more frequent in much of the U.S.

• It's been linked to more intense rainstorms across the U.S.

Go deeper: How climate change may be altering tornado outbreaks

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is planning to seek a vote on legislation he's introducing Monday to prevent foreign planes from being used as Air Force One, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Democrats have latched on to the offer from Qatar to give a $400 million jet to President Trump, arguing it reeks of corruption.

• Schumer's bill could find sympathy from some Senate Republicans, who this month have raised concerns about the Qatari offer.
• Trump argued this weekend that the jet is a gift to the U.S. and not him personally, lashing out at news organizations who have suggested the gift is for the president.
• Congressional Democrats have called for investigations into the proposed arrangement.

Between the lines: Schumer plans to force a vote on the legislation during this year's government funding fight. The vote would likely come in the form of an amendment to GOP spending bills.

• Schumer called the Qatari plane a security risk, saying there are no modifications that would make the plane secure enough to serve as Air Force One.
• "It is now on the Senate to prioritize our national security, protect Americans, and ensure that a foreign-owned plane never gets the call sign 'Air Force One,'" Schumer said in a statement.
• The $400 million jet would be worth 100 times more than every other presidential gift from a foreign nation combined since 2001, according to an Axios analysis of State Department data.

Go deeper: The foreign emoluments clause: What it is and how it relates to Qatar's jet offer

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

President Trump spent several days brawling online with America's biggest pop stars, re-litigating their support for then-Vice President Harris in the 2024 election, bashing their talent and demanding they be investigated.

Why it matters: Trump has repeatedly used the power of the federal government to probe political enemies and target the Democrats' fundraising arm.

Driving the news: "How much did Kamala Harris pay Bruce Springsteen for his poor performance during her campaign for president?" Trump wrote on Truth Social early Monday.

• "Isn't that a major and illegal campaign contribution? What about Beyoncé?" he added. "And how much went to Oprah and Bono??? I am going to call for a major investigation into this matter."

Reality check: Celebrities' teams shut down rumors during the election that they were paid millions for their appearances with Harris

Taylor Swift

Context: Trump's post spree began Friday, when he said the pop star is no longer "hot."

• "Has anyone noticed that, since I said 'I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT,' she's no longer 'HOT?'" the president wrote Friday on Truth Social.

The latest: "He is speaking about Taylor Swift's political views and how perhaps it has impacted the support of the American public for her work," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said when asked about the comments Monday. "And I will leave it at that."

• Swift just wrapped up her Eras Tour, which took in more than $2 billion, the highest grossing tour ever, according to estimates.

Bruce Springsteen

State of play: Springsteen, during his European tour, criticized the Trump administration, calling its policies and rhetoric dangerous.

• "In America, they are persecuting people for using their right to free speech and voicing their dissent," he said during a Manchester show. "This is happening now."
• "In America, the richest men are taking satisfaction in abandoning the world's poorest children to sickness and death. This is happening now."

The other side: "I see that highly overrated Bruce Springsteen goes to a foreign country to speak badly about the president of the United States," Trump wrote on Friday.

• "Never liked him, never liked his music, or his radical left politics."
• Springsteen has clashed with Republican presidents going back to Ronald Reagan, who tried to use the singer's Vietnam War anthem "Born in the U.S.A" as a celebration of American patriotism.

Beyoncé

Flashback: Beyoncé spoke at a Houston campaign rally for Harris in the final stretch of the election.

• "I'm not here as a celebrity. I'm not here as a politician. I'm here as a mother," Beyoncé, whose 35 grammy wins are the most by any female artist, said during her endorsement.

Trump slammed Beyoncé repeatedly for her appearance.

• Days after her appearance, he told an audience: "We don't need Beyoncé, we don't need anybody... all you got is me, and I don't have a guitar," per Billboard. The audience booed mention of her name.

Zoom out: Beyoncé also gave Harris permission to use her 2016 song "Freedom" as its campaign song.

• Her record label and music publisher sent a cease-and-desist to the Trump campaign for using the song on a social media post.

Go deeper:

• Trump takes shot at Taylor Swift, reigniting their feud
• Trump wants probe into Harris' endorsements from Beyoncé, Oprah Winfrey

The Justice Department charged Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) on Monday over a scuffle with law enforcement outside an ICE facility in New Jersey this month.

Why it matters: McIver is the first federal officeholder targeted by the Trump administration as they aggressively prosecute politicians who open themselves to legal liability while opposing the president's mass deportations.

• McIver has strongly denied assaulting law enforcement during the clash, saying she was the one who was assaulted. In a Monday statement, she called the charges against her "purely political" and said they are "meant to criminalize and deter legislative oversight."
• The Department of Homeland Security has pointed to body camera footage of what they say is McIver elbowing an ICE agent during the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.

What's happening: Alina Habba, acting U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey announced on X she was dropping the case against Baraka, but charging McIver with assaulting, impeding and interfering with law enforcement. Habba accused the Democrat of violating the U.S. Constitution during the scuffle.

• "No one is above the law — politicians or otherwise," Habba said in a statement. "It is the job of this office to uphold justice, regardless of who you are. Now we will let the justice system work."
• Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem echoed those comments in a post to X, saying: "If any person, regardless of political party, influence or status, assaults a law enforcement officer as we witnessed Congresswoman McIver do, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."
• Baraka in a statement the City of Newark shared on its social media accounts welcomed the dismissal of the case against him and expressed support for McIver:

Catch up quick: McIver, Baraka and Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) and Rob Menendez (D-N.J.) were at the Delany Hall detention center in Newark this month to protest its use as a migrant holding facility.

• The lawmakers argued that they were there to conduct legitimate oversight based on accusations that GEO Group, the private prison company operating the facility, lacked the proper permitting.
• In addition to Baraka and McIver, the FBI also arrested a Wisconsin judge last month for allegedly helping an undocumented defendant avoid arrest by ICE agents. She was indicted and pleaded not guilty this week.

What they're saying: McIver said in her Monday statement the charges against her "mischaracterize and distort" her actions.

• "This administration will never stop me from working for the people in our district and standing up for what is right," she added.
• "I am thankful for the outpouring of support I have received and I look forward to the truth being laid out clearly in court," she added.

What to watch: House Republicans have floated additional repercussions for the three lawmakers, with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) accusing them of "wildly inappropriate behavior."

• "I think it's pretty clear that the law was violated," the speaker said at a press conference this month, floating censure, removal from committees and expulsion as possible punishments.
• He acknowledged the two-thirds threshold for an expulsion vote would be a difficult hurdle to clear given Democrats' unity around defending their colleagues.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) has introduced a resolution to remove the trio from their committees.

Go deeper: House Dems vow to "respond vigorously" to McIver charges |

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The Trump administration's first charter flight for dozens of "self-deporting" immigrants took off from Houston early Monday, part of a new program offering them a free trip back home and $1,000 — or else.

Why it matters: The self-deportation flights are one of the few incentives for unauthorized immigrants to present themselves to authorities under President Trump's immigration crackdown, which is long on sticks and short on carrots.

• The self-deportation program was announced in March. Since then, the administration has paid for tickets for some people to return to their home countries on commercial airliners.
• For those who are unauthorized and either don't turn themselves in or don't agree to self-deport, the alternative is being detained by immigration officials and held — possibly for months — in overcrowded facilities.

Zoom in: Monday's flight left Houston about 9:30 a.m. and took 65 people from Honduras and Colombia to their respective home countries, according to a Department of Homeland Security official.

• To participate in the program, the immigrants logged into the CBP Home App and requested to be voluntarily flown home in return for the free trip and $1,000 after they land, the Homeland Security official said.

Zoom out: The program is a small part of fulfilling Trump's campaign-trail promise for mass deportations after a historic number of migrants were allowed into the U.S. under his predecessor, Joe Biden.

• The administration is aggressively using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 and the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1958, with mixed results.
• The State Department is using AI to monitor social media accounts of foreign students for alleged "pro-Hamas" sympathies, as Axios first reported.
• And officials are weighing plans to ban some colleges from accepting foreign students if the officials decide the schools have been too soft on immigrant students viewed as supporters of Hamas and other terror groups, as Axios also first reported.
• The number of deportations of people living in the U.S. is increasing under Trump, but his administration is still lagging behind the Biden administration's for total removal numbers compared to this time last year, according to an analysis of government data.

What they're saying: "In principle, [self-deporting] could be a very good option for people," said Michelle Brané, former executive director of the Biden administration's Family Reunification Task Force.

• But there's a big caveat, she said. The Trump administration's "shock and awe" campaign of immigration enforcement has been effective at scaring people — to the point it may prevent people from using the government-run CBP Home app.
• "If people are not being coerced, are fully informed and if it actually is a safe option that preserves people's rights," Brané said, "it could be a successful program."

But the administration hasn't detailed how and when self-deporters could be able to return to the U.S., and critics are skeptical.

• "It's a scam because most people won't be allowed back into the U.S.," said Kerri Talbot, executive director of Immigration Hub, an advocacy group.
• "They don't have the power to change those laws, and those are statutes that will block people from being able to come back."

Monday's self-deportation flight was far less controversial than the administration's first effort to use the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans alleged to be Tren de Aragua gang members. They were sent to a notorious lockup in El Salvador two months ago.

• A judge ordered the jets to turn around mid-fight but the administration refused, saying the judge's jurisdiction didn't extend to international waters.
• The Supreme Court on Friday temporarily blocked the administration from using the law to deport more Venezuelans to the El Salvador prison.
• The administration also is resisting a court order to facilitate the release of Salvadoran national Kilmar Abrego Garcia from that same prison, after his accidental deportation.
• Other court fights involve the deportations of pro-Palestinian demonstrators Mahmoud Khalil, Moshen Madawi, and Rumeysa Ozturk. Only the former remains incarcerated.

The intrigue: Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem have stressed that leaving the country voluntarily could eventually lead to a pathway to return to the U.S. legally.

• Trump has said he wanted to create a system for "great" people to leave and legally return to the U.S.
• That message also has been part of a multimillion-dollar ad campaign by Noem.
• "If you are here illegally, use the CBP Home App to take control of your departure and receive financial support to return home," Noem said in a statement to Axios. "If you don't, you will be subjected to fines, arrest, deportation and will never allowed to return. ... Self-deport NOW and preserve your opportunity to potentially return the legal, right way."

Investors reacted swiftly Monday morning to the U.S. losing its last triple-A credit rating, briefing sending the yield on 30-year Treasuries above 5%.

Why it matters: Credit rating downgrades — like Moody's decision Friday to slash the U.S. government to Aa1 — mean the borrower is now viewed as a riskier bet.

• U.S. Treasuries are still widely regarded as a dependable place to park cash, but long-term bond yields Monday nonetheless touched their highest level since November 2023, and last seen before that in 2007.

Zoom out: U.S. debt is now deemed by Moody's to be a risker proposition for investors than debt issued by a dozen countries.

• Those better bets are Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland.

What they're saying: "Globally, the downgrade may dent confidence in U.S. Treasuries, traditionally perceived as a safe-haven asset due to the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency," Wells Fargo Investment Institute analysts wrote today in a special report.

• "While demand for Treasuries is likely to remain strong, in our view, reduced foreign appetite — already evident following President Donald Trump's tariff announcements — could exacerbate fiscal pressures," they wrote.

Yes, but: Most buyers of Treasury bonds aren't doing so based on credit rating firms' assessment, however, Axios' Neil Irwin notes.

Reality check: The U.S. had already lost its perfect rating from S&P in 2011 and from Fitch in 2023.

• Some, like Morningstar chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera, characterized Friday's Moody's downgrade as largely symbolic, with the issues that led to the downgrade "long in coming, well known, and priced into" the U.S. Treasury market.

The impact: The morning's bond selloff tapered off by the afternoon, with yields on 30-year Treasures settling at 4.91%.

• Stocks finished the day largely in the green, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes all closing Monday with small gains.

The big picture: For investors today the downgrade "reinforces that [U.S.] fiscal strain is no longer a distant concern," writes Tom Kozlik, head of public policy and municipal strategy at Hilltop Securities.

• "It is unfolding in real time, with significant implications for investor sentiment and policy discussions."

The U.S. government is spending far more than it takes in as revenue, causing ever-rising debt — and there is no sign that will change anytime soon.

The big picture: Those facts are well-known to anybody who has taken a cursory look at the government's books. But Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating Friday is the latest reminder that this precarious fiscal standing comes with real risks.

• Moody's — the last of the three major raters to downgrade the U.S. from its once-pristine credit rating — is acknowledging that U.S. policymakers may have less room to maneuver in future recessions or crises, in light of the massive existing pile of debt.
• It is one more sign that an era in which the U.S. government could borrow seemingly limitless amounts, without experiencing the cost of higher interest rates and inflation, may have come to an end.

Zoom out: Ratings from firms like Moody's help determine how much companies, municipalities, and even sovereign nations must pay to borrow money.

• The downgrade implies that the U.S. government is a bigger credit risk than it seemed, which in theory could make some investors demand higher interest payments to buy government bonds.
• That would ripple through into higher borrowing costs across the economy, including for home and auto loans.
• In practice, most buyers of Treasury bonds aren't doing so based on credit rating firms' assessment, so the direct impact on markets was limited Monday.

State of play: The downgrade came as congressional Republicans move forward on their plan for major tax cuts, which independent fiscal watchdogs believe would increase the deficit by trillions over the coming decade.

• Compared to past episodes when the government has taken on deficit-widening initiatives, the new budget bill arrives at a moment of higher debt and higher interest rates.
• And it comes after global investors have already seemed jittery about the safety of U.S. assets amid the trade war, resulting in higher interest rates and more risk to the ability to continue financing debts.

White House officials emphasize that they inherited sky-high deficits from the Biden administration and say that their policy mix — including deregulation, tariffs, DOGE spending cuts, and pro-growth aspects of the budget bill — will help bring them down.

• "I do want to assure everyone that the deficit is a very significant concern for this administration," top White House economist Stephen Miran told reporters Monday.
• "We're determined to bring it down and to undo the damage to the fiscal health of the United States that was wrought by the Biden administration and its reckless policies."

What they're saying: "Yes, this Moody's action is largely symbolic, and it reflects information we already know," notes Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

• "But it's a headline that came at a wildly inopportune time for the fixed-income market," which is to say the multi-trillion dollar market for government bonds.
• "Moody's picked a moment when the world is second-guessing U.S. debt, Congress is arguing over government budget proposals, and the policy uncertainty" around long-term Treasuries is the highest in years, she adds.

The bottom line: "The government deficit isn't a problem until investors think it is," says Cox. "And they're increasingly telling us that the deficit is a problem."

National Institutes of Health budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration and staff layoffs at the largest funder of cancer research threaten to stall innovation, doctors and researchers said.

The big picture: Cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. As former President Biden said Monday after announcing he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer, the disease "touches us all."

• For many common cancers, rates continue to rise, especially for women. And recent studies have found diagnoses for several cancers have increased among people under the age of 50, including colorectal cancer.

Yes, but: Now, potentially life-saving research faces an uncertain future, researchers say.

Zoom out: For researchers already hit hard by DOGE-driven cuts and NIH grant cancellations, the president's 2026 budget proposal with nearly $18 billion in proposed cuts posed another blow.

• The American Cancer Society's Cancer Action Network said in a May 2024 fact sheet that "[i]ncreased and sustained investment" at the NIH and its National Cancer Institute has been key to reducing the nation's cancer mortality rate, which the NCI says continues to decline.

What they're saying: "These are the most difficult times that we have ever experienced," Steven Rosenberg from the National Cancer Institute told PBS when asked about layoffs and budget cuts.

What is the NIH, and how does it contribute to cancer research?

The NIH describes itself as the nation's medical research agency and as the largest public funder of biomedical and behavioral research in the world.

• It falls under the Department of Health and Human Services and is made up of 27 institutes and centers, including the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Flashback: The NCI was established through the National Cancer Act of 1937, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

• Since President Nixon's declaration of a "war on cancer" in the early 1970s, research enjoyed increasing shares of federal biomedical research funding with strong bipartisan support.
• The Trump administration has upended the once-bipartisan consensus on funding cancer research.

Zoom in: The NCI is the government's principal agency for cancer research and training with a team of around 3,500, according to its website.

• The NCI received a total of $7.22 billion in fiscal years 2024 and 2025.

What has happened to the NIH under the Trump administration?

The potential impacts of NIH cuts are in flux and far-reaching.

• In February, the NIH said it would make dramatic cuts to the rate it pays for institutions' administration and overhead costs, saying it would cap the indirect cost rate on new and current grants at 15% of the total cost.
• That announcement sent shockwaves through the academic research world, with some institutions receiving reimbursements of more than 50%.

Friction point: Nearly two dozen states sued in response to the administration's overhead cost cap, alleging the billions of dollars in cuts could lead to layoffs, disrupt medical trials and close labs.

• A federal judge granted a temporary freeze then later made it permanent — teeing up the administration's appeal.

Beyond that, the NIH has cut funding for research and institutions that it says do not support the agency's mission, Axios' Carrie Shepherd reported, which includes some diversity, equity and inclusion studies.

• Some of the terminations follow the president's anti-DEI executive orders, while other grants addressed topics like vaccination and LGBTQ+ health, KFF Health News reported in April.

A Senate committee report released last week by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) documenting what he called "Trump's war on science" found the NIH has committed $2.7 billion less to researchers through March, compared to the same timeframe last year.

• The Democratic staff's analysis also reported a 31% decline in cancer research grant funding in the first three months of 2025, compared to the same timeframe in the previous year.
• "[T]he Trump administration's funding freeze did not just affect new research," the report read. "Renewals of existing grants also plummeted, disrupting studies that had already gone through peer review, some of which had already started to produce results."

Yes, but: The Department of Health and Human Services, which is overseen by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., slammed the report as a "politically motivated distortion," and called Sanders' characterization of a "war on science" "unequivocally false."

What are doctors and researchers saying about the state of cancer research?

Jalal Baig, an oncologist and writer, said in a recent MSNBC op-ed that because "no two cancer centers" are alike in their "indirect" costs, "a uniform, fixed cap would disrupt or halt operations for many."

• While that plan is blocked by a judge's injunction, he said job cuts have had "palpable effects," pointing to reports of treatment delays for patients using an experimental therapy fighting gastrointestinal cancers.

Kimryn Rathmell, the former director of the National Cancer Institute, told the Associated Press that "discoveries are going to be delayed, if they ever happen."

The bottom line: "Countless Americans depend on the continued progress of cancer research to save lives and improve cancer care," Baig wrote. "And without it, many potential insights and treatments needed to propel oncology forward will never be realized."

Go deeper: Trump budget targets NIH, CDC for cuts

The Trump administration can strip temporary deportation protections from 350,000 Venezuelans, the Supreme Court said Monday.

Why it matters: The Venezuelan immigrants are still challenging the Trump administration's decision to remove their Temporary Protected Status in a lower court, but the Supreme Court's order means those protections can be revoked while the case continues.

• A federal judge in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California had blocked the Trump administration from removing the deportation protections, but the Supreme Court overturned that decision on Monday.
• Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson would have denied the request, per the court's order.
• As many as 350,000 Venezuelans are covered by the Temporary Protected Status, according to court filings.

Catch up quick: Outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had extended the deportation protections for Venezuelans until 2026 in the waning days of the Biden administration.

• In its request to the Supreme Court, the Trump administration said the district court judge's nationwide stay overstepped its authority.
• "The court thus wrested control of the nation's immigration policy away from the Executive Branch," the administration said.

What they're saying: The National TPS Alliance, which is representing the Venezuelans in the federal district court case, said the immigrants covered by the protected status "cannot return safely to their country of origin."

• President Trump had ordered that deportations of Venezuelans be deferred on his first day in office during his first term. Those protections were periodically extended until the second Trump administration revoked them in February.
• DHS Secretary Krisi Noem even acknowledged in her revocation order that conditions in Venezuela had not improved since the temporary protections were first enacted, the TPS Alliance told the district court.

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with additional information.

The U.S. government's fiscal situation has been worrying in a sort of abstract, long-term way for years. Now it's getting real.

The big picture: There are emerging signs that global investors are losing patience with a U.S. government that shows no intention of narrowing deficits to more sustainable levels.

• At this point, it isn't a debt crisis or even the kind of mini-crisis that cost U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss her job in 2022, when the British currency and bonds sold off after an ill-fated budget proposal.
• But there are signs everywhere — in bond market moves, credit rating agency actions, currency markets — that U.S. policymakers have less room to maneuver than they may have thought.

Driving the news: Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating Friday, the last of the major rating agencies to strip the U.S. of its top-tier status.

• "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said.
• Treasury bonds were selling off Monday, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield up 0.07 percentage point to 4.97% as of 11:50am ET. It hovered near the highest levels seen since 2007, other than a few days in the fall of 2023.

Between the lines: The Treasury market is perhaps the most scrutinized on Earth, and Moody's analysts don't have special insight that fixed-income strategists and hedge fund managers around the world lack.

• But the fact that bonds sold off following the downgrade suggests global investors who fund U.S. debt are becoming more wary of the long-term fiscal outlook — as reflected in diminished demand for the longest-dated securities.
• Notably, when S&P downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating in 2011, Treasury yields paradoxically fell, reflecting the dominant view then that they represented the ultimate safe haven in times of turmoil.

State of play: Congressional Republicans are making progress on legislation that front-loads tax cuts and backloads spending cuts. Fiscal watchdogs believe it would add trillions to the national debt relative to current law.

• The Yale Budget Lab, for example, calculates it would add $3.4 trillion to cumulative deficits over the next decade if tax cuts expire in 2028 and 2029 as scheduled, or $5 trillion if they are extended.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculates that the legislation could cause the government's debt service costs to approach $2 trillion and more than 4% of GDP, which would be the most on record. (It was 3.1% last year and 1.5% as recently as 2021.)

This represents a turnabout from the pattern of the last 25 years, when there was little evident resistance from bond buyers as the U.S. government looked to borrow.

Zoom out: At other key moments in the recent past when the U.S. considered deficit-enlarging fiscal action, markets gave a big flashing green light.

• That includes the post-2001 global war on terror, the 2008 financial crisis, with President Trump's 2017 tax law, plus the pandemic response under both Trump and former President Biden.
• Now, it is at best a yellow light.

Flashback: Consider the state of play when the 2017 Trump tax cuts were being debated.

• The national debt then was 75.7%. Now it's approaching 100%. The government's debt service costs were 1.4% of GDP. Now it's 3.1% and rising.
• The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 2.3%. Now it's 4.5%.

What they're saying: Russel Matthews with RBC BlueBay Asset Management wrote in a note that "there is limited desire or ability for any US politicians to present a roadmap for a serious reduction in the fiscal deficit.

• "We don't see any contraction in the deficit over the foreseeable future, and the risk is that it increases from the current level around 6.5% of GDP," he added.
• "If this dynamic is unchecked, it is inevitable that the US has some kind of Liz Truss moment; a spike in rates volatility and yields moving substantially higher, particularly at the long end of the curve. However, predicting when we reach this tipping point is extremely difficult," noted Matthews.