To fight a trade war against China, most foreign policy experts would say that you need allies.

Why it matters: Over the past few months, the White House antagonized pretty much all its friends on the global stage, making it that much harder to carry out what is now a full-blown tariff battle with China.

The big picture: China is a formidable economic force, the second-largest economy in the world, with significant resources like a vast labor supply, manufacturing heft, a growing electric vehicle industry and expanding military might.

• "On critical metrics, China has already outmatched the United States," write the authors of a sobering new piece in Foreign Affairs.

Zoom in: The best shot the U.S. has at holding its economic edge is in forging partnerships, Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi write: "China possesses scale, and the United States does not — at least not by itself."

• "Because its only viable path lies in coalition with others, Washington would be particularly unwise to go it alone in a complex global competition."

The intrigue: The authors, who both worked on foreign affairs in the Biden administration, wrote the piece before "Liberation Day."

• But we "kind of saw that coming," Doshi, now a professor of security studies at Georgetown University and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council of Foreign Relations, tells Axios.

Zoom in: Such a coalition would go beyond the traditional post-Cold War frame of the U.S. playing a protector role. This would be more about forging economic partnerships.

• "I'm talking about us all getting together with our allies, putting tariffs or regulatory barriers up together to protect our industries from China's massive export capacity," Doshi says.
• "Ideally the U.S. would lower barriers between its allies, to put market share together so that our companies have a bigger playing field."

But right now, U.S. allies have the tariffs of Damocles hanging over their heads, says Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

• On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal" tariffs, and it's not the kind of pause that refreshes.
• "It's not like other countries know for certain that they even have a reprieve," Edelberg says.

By the numbers: U.S. tariffs on China now average 134.7%, per a calculation from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

• China's been retaliating, this morning raising tariffs on U.S. goods even more to 125%. It could end very badly, though many expect some kind of deal or postponement.
• "At current tariff levels, U.S. exports to China are no longer marketable," China's tariff commission said in a statement quoted this morning in the Wall Street Journal.
• "If the U.S. insists on playing the numbers game with tariffs, China will disregard it." The statement adds that China will "fight" if the U.S. persists in harming its interests.

Yes, but: "We can put America first and work with other countries at the same time," a White House official tells Axios. "The U.S. is not acting alone in acting on China's unfair trading practices."

• They note many countries have initiated anti-dumping World Trade Organization investigations against China, and that "even Russia is imposing higher duties on Chinese EV cars."

For the record: "President Trump is playing chess while the Chinese are playing checkers, to the detriment of their economy and their people," says Harrison Fields, a White House spokesperson.

Flashback: The trade war with China during the first Trump administration ended with an agreement. Among other things, China said it would buy $200 billion worth of American imports.

• That didn't happen. Partly, the coronavirus pandemic got in the way, but other factors were also at play.
• "Today the only undisputed 'historical' aspect of that agreement is its failure," Chad Bown wrote in a 2022 piece for the Peterson Institute.

Reality check: The current Chinese economy is in a bad place. Consumer prices declined for the second month in a row, per data out Wednesday, a worrying sign deflation might be setting in. Unemployment is rising.

• A trade war with its biggest foreign trading partner is only going to add to its woes.
• Still, China's leaders believe their country is better able to withstand the fight, Han Lin, the Asia Group China director in Shanghai, said on BBC Business Matters on Wednesday.

The bottom line: "They believe they could endure pain longer than the U.S. could. Of course, we'll see that thesis tested over the next several months."

China increased its tariff on U.S. goods to 125% on Friday, matching President Trump's levy, but said it won't go higher.

Why it matters: The tit-for-tat move extends a trade war impacting hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods — though the intention to cap the tariff may be a small opening to moderate tensions.

Catch up quick: The new Chinese levy goes into effect April 12 on about $144 billion of U.S. exports, primarily agricultural products like soybeans.

• It mostly matches U.S. tariffs, which the Chinese government dismissed as a "joke."
• The U.S. now charges 145% on Chinese goods — the 125% reciprocal rate plus an earlier 20% tariff in a dispute over the flow of fentanyl.

What they're saying: "Given that American goods are no longer marketable in China under the current tariff rates, if the U.S. further raises tariffs on Chinese exports, China will disregard such measures," the Chinese Ministry of Finance said in a statement, per Bloomberg.

• CNBC reported the same sentiment, though with a different translation.

By the numbers: The latest Chinese move weighed on financial markets.

• European stocks were up in early trade but turned negative after the Chinese announcement.
• U.S. stock futures were slightly lower as well in thin early morning trade.
• Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, under enough pressure of late to force the White House's hand, were about 1.5 basis points higher at 4.407%, well off their highs overnight.

Go deeper... Xi's counterpunch: How China will ensure the trade war hurts the U.S.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has no shortage of pressure points to ensure Americans feel the pain from President Trump's superpower trade war.

The big picture: China on Friday increased its tariffs to an eye-watering 125% in response to Trump's 145% levies. And ever since trade war 1.0, Beijing has also been developing a wider array of tools that it's now putting to use.

• Here are seven ways China can punch back as Trump continues to dial up the pressure.

1. Hit consumers in the wallet

Xi doesn't even need to lift a finger to ensure Americans are hurt by the trade war — Trump's own tariffs may take care of that.

• China's factories produce the vast majority of the toys, cell phones and many other products Americans buy. From fast fashion to gaming consoles, things will get more expensive.

Between the lines: Trump has claimed the tariffs will produce a U.S. manufacturing boom that eliminates the reliance on made-in-China products. Even if that's plausible, consumers are likely in for years of pain in the meantime.

• However, Trump has also suggested he's open to negotiations with Xi, which could lead to a trade truce much sooner.
• Xi certainly has incentives to seek a deal, given the havoc the tariffs will wreak on China's already vulnerable economy. But a long-term trade war could arguably pile more political pressure on Trump than on him.

2. Punish the farmers (and more)

Any American whose livelihood depends on selling into the Chinese market is likely panicking right now — whether the product in question is oil, airplanes or soybeans (three of the top U.S. exports).

Flashback: Trump had to bail out American farmers to the tune of $28 billion during trade war 1.0, when tariff levels were far lower.

• Now, the world's largest market for soybeans is already turning away from the U.S. and toward Brazil.

What to watch: Much the same can be expected for other products. While China exports more to the U.S. than vice-versa, China is still the #3 export market for U.S. products.

• The inability to compete in China will damage or doom a broad range of U.S. companies if the trade war drags on.

3. Target individual U.S. companies

China added twelve U.S. firms to an export control list this week — restricting what they can ship out of China — and added six defense tech and aviation firms to an "unreliable entity list" that bans them from doing business in China.

• Beijing also announced an antitrust investigation into chemicals giant DuPont. That follows previous announcements of probes into other blue-chip American companies like Google and Nvidia.

China has honed that toolkit — export controls, blacklists and investigations — to target individual U.S. firms over the past several years.

• Many of America's biggest companies are deeply reliant on the Chinese market. If Beijing ramps up those tactics, Trump can expect to hear from CEOs nervous about being cut out of China.

4. Cut off supplies of rare earth minerals

China last week further restricted exports of rare earths — a sector it dominates — in response to Trump's tariffs.

• The Trump administration is scrambling to source minerals from elsewhere. But for now, the U.S. is heavily reliant on China for key inputs for products ranging from semiconductors to missiles to wind turbines.

Friction point: Banning the export of certain rare earths outright could cripple production in critical industries.

• However, like almost everything in this trade war, it would hurt China too by eliminating demand and causing shortages of products (like high-end chips) that China also needs.

5. Selling U.S. debt

On the topic of things that would hurt the U.S. but also ricochet back onto China, there's the "nuclear option" of dumping the $761 billion in U.S. bonds held by Beijing.

• Most economists doubt Xi would pull that lever given the risks to the Chinese and global economies, but even having that capability gives him leverage.

6. Devaluing the yuan

Another potential economic lever is a sharp devaluation of China's currency, which would help boost China's exports and further diminish the ability of U.S. firms to compete in the Chinese market.

• For now, though, Beijing has indicated it wants to keep the yuan stable — and to press countries to conduct more trade in yuan, rather than dollars.

7. Freezing out Hollywood

China is a key market for U.S. films, sports leagues, and other entertainment products, and Beijing hasn't been shy about using that leverage to influence what public figures say or what appears on screen.

• China's film administration said Thursday that it will "moderately reduce" approvals for Hollywood films. There's also chatter among influential Chinese bloggers about a full ban, according to Bloomberg.
• Shares in U.S. entertainment companies are sinking on those reports.

The bottom line: Trump knows that ratcheting up the trade war will squeeze China's economy, which remains heavily reliant on the U.S. But Xi knows it's a two-way street, and has plenty of options for ensuring Americans feel the squeeze, too.

This story was updated with the news China had increased its tariffs to 125%.

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

Why it matters: For decades, the world has invested in America. Now, a global moment of clarity threatens to redirect trillions of dollars of capital inflows and diminish the U.S. in the international economic order.

The big picture: The U.S. receives nearly $2 trillion each year in foreign capital inflows, according to government data — things like investments in businesses and bank lending, but also foreign investors buying U.S. stocks and bonds.

• America's share of global capital flows has nearly doubled from where it was just before the pandemic, to 41%.

Yes, but: Then came the tariffs.

• The U.S. dollar — which should strengthen in a tariff environment, all other things being equal — weakened steadily.
• "This suggests foreigners have been and are continuing to sell U.S. stocks and sending their money elsewhere," write Howard Ward and John Belton, co-chief investment officers of value at Gabelli Funds.

The intrigue: A strong U.S. dollar has been orthodoxy for decades, and investors have counted on knowing the government would act to preserve the greenback as the world's reserve currency.

• But Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, recently gave a speech in which he portrayed the strong dollar as fraught with downsides, denting U.S. competitiveness and labor.
• If the government isn't going to stand as firmly by the dollar, investors may reason it's a good time to look elsewhere, too.

Between the lines: The tariff blowback only accelerates a trend that started not long after Trump took office, with investors preferring foreign markets over the U.S.

• The S&P 500 is one of the world's worst-performing major indices so far this year.
• Look no further than Thursday, when Asian and European shares rallied sharply — and U.S. stocks sank.
• There's also bond market pain, which the White House acknowledged as driving the tariff rollback.

Lurking in the background: The fact that foreign investors hold almost 30% of publicly held U.S. government debt, essentially split between private and state holders.

• "(The) more troubling narrative of late is the notion of what we call a 'sell America Inc.' risk," interest rates strategists at ING wrote this week. "(The) here and now is painting Treasuries as a tainted product, and that's not comfortable territory."

The other side: For all the anxiety, the U.S. economy is still the world's largest and remains attractive to plenty of investors.

• An auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds Wednesday was met with slightly better-than-normal demand, even amid the global chaos.
• Billions of dollars are still pouring into the United States to build new auto factories, data centers, and the like.

What to watch: Whether this was a blip, or the start of a fundamental shift in the way the world views investing in America.

Young people are starkly divided by who they vote for, what they do for fun and where they get their news and information, according to new Axios-Generation Lab polling.

Why it matters: Gen Z and young millennials exemplify how social media, news and podcasts have fragmented America into competing realities.

Zoom in: Their favorite podcasts cover a vast range from comedy to true crime to daily news.

• But patterns — and partisan splits — emerge when honing in on the audiences of MAGA and MAGA-adjacent media stars like Charlie Kirk and Joe Rogan, according to the poll of 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide.

By the numbers: 27% of young people who voted for President Trump say they listen to "The Joe Rogan Experience" at least once a month, compared with 6% who cast their ballots for former Vice President Harris.

• 19% of Trump voters say the same about "The Charlie Kirk Show," and 18% tune into "The Ben Shapiro Show." Among Harris voters, it's 3% for each.

Podcasts from Barstool Sports, founded by Trump supporter Dave Portnoy, are the most popular among young people who voted for Trump.

• 34% of young Trump voters say they listened to a Barstool Sports podcast in the last month, compared with 9% of Harris supporters.

The intrigue: A few podcasts are roughly equally popular among Gen Zers on the right and left, including "The Daily" (13% of Harris voters and 14% of Trump voters), TED Talks Daily (17% of Harris voters and 23% of Trump voters) and "Call Her Daddy" (9% each).

Zoom out: There are divisions in what young Americans on the right vs. left do for fun, too.

• 44% of Harris supporters say they love going to concerts vs. 28% of Trump supporters.
• 42% of Trump voters are avid sports fans vs. 26% of Harris voters.
• Both sides are equally plugged into politics and current events (28%, Harris voters; 26%, Trump voters).

Methodology: This poll was conducted Feb. 21-28 from a representative sample of 972 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

A warning from the world's largest and most powerful financial market did what few others could: force President Trump to pivot on a key aspect of his trade agenda.

Why it matters: The U.S. Treasury market is the heart of the global financial system. The rapid selloff fueled by Trump's tariffs was seen as a ticking economic time bomb that risked bringing the world economy to a screeching halt.

Between the lines: The U.S. government funds its $36 trillion national debt with bonds, which it sells to investors around the world — individuals, pension funds, other nations, you name it.

• The price they are willing to pay determines the interest rate on government debt, which in turn ripples through to all other forms of borrowing, like home mortgages or corporate lending.
• Treasury securities are the bedrock of financial transactions around the globe — a store of value for German banks, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, and countless other key roles in the underpinnings of the global financial system.

Threat level: There is a reason why the high-flying stock market gets all the headlines. The bond market is boring and unsexy when it is working well.

• That was not the case this week. The moves in the Treasury market suggested global investors were becoming less confident in U.S. government bonds, which in turn pushed up borrowing costs across the board.
• The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond skyrocketed by as much as 0.6 percentage points since the start of the week. Sound small? It's a magnitude not seen since the pandemic, according to TD Securities.

The big picture: The extraordinary swings suggest a profound shift in financial market dynamics that could hold Trump back in the years ahead, a hurdle he did not face during his first term.

• In the 2010s, global bond investors were less jittery. But the 2020s might go down as the decade when the bond vigilantes returned.
• Trump is only the latest global leader forced to walk back policy over sovereign debt. A bond market revolt ousted UK prime minister Liz Truss in 2022 and jolted spending plans for the current government this year.
• France's government collapsed last year over a budget fight spurred by flighty bond investors.
• Kevin Hassett, one of Trump's top economic advisors, told CNBC yesterday "there's no doubt" the Treasury market made the administration's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs a bit more urgent.

What they're saying: The last time yields moved up so fast was the pandemic crash in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had to step in to rescue the market.

• This time there was no deadly virus or recession, but a self-imposed trade policy threatening the global economy.
• The bond market signaled that policy threat could be compounded by another crisis: dried-up demand for U.S. government bonds — including from foreigners that buy a massive amount of debt — that would send shockwaves across the economy.

What they're saying: "U.S. Treasury debt is the risk free asset of the world," says Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.

• "If there are questions about investors willingness to buy it — whether it's because of uncertainty or they're worried that there will not be enough investors — it really threatens the primacy of U.S. treasury debt as the rock that underpins the global financial system."

What to watch: There was plenty of appetite for the $22 billion in government debt auctioned off yesterday.

• Tepid demand for U.S. government debt is still just a risk for now, though one that looked more likely this week.

President Trump's diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia and is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin on Friday, according to a source familiar with the trip and FlightRadar data.

Why it matters: This will be the third meeting between Witkoff and Putin as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Friction point: Trump has become frustrated that negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks, and said at one point that he was "pissed off" about comments Putin had made on Ukraine.

• If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.
• "We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

Driving the news: Last week, Witkoff hosted Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Washington in an effort to break the logjam.

• While Ukraine agreed to Trump's proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and subsequently agreed to plans for a smaller-scale maritime ceasefire, Russia made a series of new demands, including the lifting of some U.S. sanctions.
• "We are making progress. We hope that we are getting relatively close to getting a deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the fighting," Trump said on Thursday during a Cabinet meeting.

State of play: The U.S. and Russia implemented a prisoner exchange deal on Thursday that included the release of dual U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina.

• The negotiations on the deal were a result of a previous meeting between Witkoff and Putin in March.
• Trump said he appreciated Putin's decision to release Karelina. He mentioned Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) CEO Dana White told him she is the girlfriend of a UFC fighter and asked him to help in releasing her.
• U.S. and Russian diplomats met again on Thursday in Istanbul to discuss the normalization of relations between the countries.
• A State Department spokesperson did not immediatel respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening about Witkoff's trip.

Egg prices rose to a record high of $6.23 per dozen in March, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Thursday.

The big picture: President Trump claimed credit last month for a drop in wholesale egg prices as bird flu outbreaks that forced producers to cull millions of chickens and led to shortages waned and his administration moved to tackle higher prices by boosting egg imports.

• However, consumers don't typically immediately see wholesale price drops reflected at the grocery store, per Axios' Kelly Tyko and Nathan Bomey.
• And eggs are in high demand over the Jewish holiday of Passover, which starts Saturday, and Easter, held on April 20 this year. This can drive prices higher.

By the numbers: The price for a dozen grade A large eggs increased from $5.90 in February to $6.23, per the BLS. In January, it was $4.95 a dozen.

• Wholesale egg prices have fallen from an average of $6.55 per dozen on Jan. 24 to $3.26 last Friday, per Agriculture Department data.

Between the lines: "In the same way that just because the barrel price of oil goes down does not mean that gas prices immediately go down, there's a delay here," said University of Arkansas agricultural economist Jada Thompson in a blog post this week.

• "Retailers get to choose their own price, and they took a lot of losses when prices were exceptionally high," Thompson added.
• "They may be saying, 'I've lost money over here, so I'm going to let what I have in stock go out at the price it currently is before I lower the price, to compensate for that earlier loss.'"

Go deeper: Why food prices are still high, five years after COVID

President Trump threatened Mexico with more tariffs and sanctions on Thursday over a water dispute at the southern border.

What he's saying: "Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation," Trump said in a Truth Social post, referring to a 1944 agreement that requires Mexico to deliver to U.S. 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle.

• "This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers," Trump said..
• "I will make sure Mexico doesn't violate our Treaties, and doesn't hurt our Texas Farmers. ... we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!" he added.

Context: By the end of last year, Mexico had only delivered 488,634 AF of water since Oct. 2020, per U.S. International Boundary and Water Commission data.

• The State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs last month said on X Mexico's "continued shortfalls in its water deliveries" were "decimating American agriculture," particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley.
• "As a result ... for the first time, the U.S. will deny Mexico's non-treaty request for a special delivery channel for Colorado River water to be delivered to Tijuana," it added.
• Mexican officials say extreme drought fueled by climate change was contributing to water shortages.

The other side: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum cited the three-year drought in a post to X addressing Trump's complaints and said "to the extent water is available, Mexico has been complying" with the treaty.

• She said she had instructed government officals "to immediately contact" the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the State Department and she's "confident that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached."

The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday said it would begin phasing out animal testing requirements for antibody therapies and other drugs and move toward AI-based models and other tools it deems "human-relevant."

Why it matters: The agency is trying to reaffirm its role as a leader in modern regulatory science amid DOGE-directed cuts that have rattled drug developers and investors and stoked concerns about timely product reviews.

Driving the news: The FDA said it would launch a pilot program over the next year allowing select developers of monoclonal antibodies to use a primarily non-animal-based testing strategy.

• Commissioner Marty Makary in a statement said the shift would improve drug safety, lower research and development costs and address ethical concerns about animal experimentation.
• "This initiative marks a paradigm shift in drug evaluation and holds promise to accelerate cures and meaningful treatments for Americans while reducing animal use," Makary said.

Zoom in: FDA said its roadmap envisions using computer modeling and AI to predict a drug's behavior and possible side effects, through software simulations of how a monoclonal antibody distributes through the human body.

• It also will promote the use of lab-grown human "organoids" and "organ-on-a-chip" technology that mimic the liver, heart, and immune organs to test drug safety and reveal possible toxic effects that can go undetected in animals.
• Officials said companies that submit strong safety data from non-animal tests may receive streamlined product reviews. And the FDA will begin using safety data from other countries with comparable regulatory standards to help determine a drug's efficacy.

What they're saying: "The initiative combines deregulatory themes and cutting-edge technology — all in service of the broadly popular goal of reducing animal testing," TD Cowen analyst Rick Weissenstein wrote in a note.

• PETA said the new policies were "a significant step" towards replacing the use of animals, including vaccine and other testing on monkeys at federally-funded primate centers.
• Some health tech stocks rose on the news, including Certara Inc., a maker of biosimulation software. Animal testing firms Inotiv and Charles River Laboratories fell in after-hours trading.
• PhRMA, the drug industry trade group, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

UAW workers are poised to stomach thousands of dollars in reduced payments because of President Trump's auto tariffs, according to new estimates.

Why it matters: The left-leaning union is supporting the Republican's auto tariffs, saying free trade hurts American manufacturing and arguing that the automakers can afford to absorb the financial blow.

Between the lines: The average hourly UAW-represented worker for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis will get a profit-sharing check reduction of anywhere from $1,000 to more than $5,000, according to Anderson Economic Group.

• "For some automakers, with Stellantis being the most vulnerable at the current time, the effects of a prolonged tariff war could lead to operating losses that cause payouts to go to zero," the Michigan-based firm estimates in a new report.

How it works: UAW autoworkers get annual profit-sharing checks based on the North American profits of their employers.

• That's particularly problematic for union members because Trump's tariffs are expected to hit North American profits hard.
• Trump this week paused his reciprocal tariffs, except on China, but maintained his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

Zoom in: Anderson Economic Group based its estimate on a projection of lower sales and higher costs for the automakers, collectively leading to a reduction of more than $5 billion in adjusted earnings in 2025.

• The economists projected a 1-million unit decline in annual new vehicle sales in the U.S. — a figure that includes non-UAW-represented automakers.
• The group conducted the analysis at the request of the Detroit Free Press, spokesperson Lisa Wootton Booth said.
• "Some Wall Street analysts who reviewed Anderson's math also agreed with it, with some saying it's likely conservative," the Free Press reported.

The other side: The UAW — which did not immediately respond to a request for comment — has argued that its workers and the union movement will win in the long run from increased tariffs.

• "These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a recent statement.

By the numbers: This year's profit-sharing checks for UAW-represented workers, based on 2024 earnings, were:

• $14,500 at GM.
• $10,208 at Ford.
• $3,780 at Stellantis.

More than half a dozen members of Congress from the New York metro area were ushered off a flight Thursday after another plane clipped its wing while taxiing at Washington Reagan National Airport.

Why it matters: Several Democratic lawmakers were quick to cast the incident as a consequence of DOGE cuts to the Federal Aviation Administration.

• "When planes are taking off and landing every minute of the day, FAA funding is cut, air traffic controllers are fired and current staff is spread thinner ... that is when mistakes happen," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
• Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), who was on the flight, said the incident "underscores the urgent need for more FAA funding—people's lives are at stake. Cuts and firing FAA employees are not the answer."
• The FAA confirmed the incident in a statement and said it has launched an investigation. Both were American Airlines flights with one headed to JFK in New York and the other going to Charleston, South Carolina.

By the numbers: Seven House members, along with "dozens of other concerned passengers," were on the flight, Meeks said.

• A lawmaker who was on the flight told Axios the passengers included Meeks and Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.).
• The lawmakers and other passengers were removed from the flight shortly after the incident.

What happened: LaLota said in a post on X that "another plane just bumped into our wing," and that the plane headed back to the gate afterward.

• "While waiting on the runway to fly out of DC today, another plane clipped the wing of the plane my colleagues and I were on," Meng said on X.

Top Senate Democrats plan to unveil legislation that would provide an emergency $200 monthly increase in Social Security benefits through the end of the year, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's the party's latest effort to highlight the Trump administration's tariff policies and now-scrapped DOGE-driven plans for service reductions to the popular benefits program.

• Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will introduce the Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act, according to a source familiar with the plans.
• It's a brainchild of the caucus's Social Security War Room.

Driving the news: The Democrats argue that the $200-a-month increase is necessary to shield beneficiaries from price increases stemming from Trump's tariff policies.

• Economists have warned that the levies are likely to drive inflation and — unlike in 2022 — that wages may struggle to keep up.
• The Social Security Administration this week backed off plans to drastically cut phone services after weeks of confusion and outcry.
• Democrats argue that their proposal shows a clear contrast with Republicans on entitlements, pointing to the GOP's plans to cut spending — and potentially Medicaid benefits — through budget reconciliation.

What they're saying: In an op-ed in the Financial Times on Wednesday, Warren called on Republicans to "stand ready to expand social security — not gut it — by passing an emergency, temporary adjustment."

• Schumer said on the Senate floor Thursday that Republicans "want to gut" Social Security.
• Top congressional Republicans have said they have no plans to reduce Social Security benefits.

Between the lines: The bill has no future in the Senate under Republican leadership. But it could still be a useful messaging tool for Democrats.

• Schumer and his party have used amendment votes to target vulnerable Republican senators who are up for reelection in 2026.
• Democrats could demand that the bill be included as an amendment to any legislation that the GOP wants to move through the Senate over the next year.

The cohort of House members eyeing higher offices keeps expanding, with at least three dozen lawmakers now actively running or considering bids for Senate and governor.

Why it matters: The dynamic could complicate things for both Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as they try to maximize attendance to thwart each others' plans.

• In Jeffries' case, he's already dealing with two vacancies caused by deaths and another member, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), in intensive care.
• But Jeffries told Axios he is not worried, saying House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) "has done a tremendous job; we've had complete attendance, absent a handful of medical emergencies."

What we're hearing: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling Axios he is "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table."

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is "99.9%" of the way to a gubernatorial run, a source familiar with her thinking told Axios.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) isn't ruling out a run for governor or Senate, saying in a statement to Axios he will "continue my service to the people of Georgia at whatever level they choose in the future."

The intrigue: Some House members, asked about their reported ambitions in interviews with Axios, demurred.

• Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), asked whether he is sizing up a run for governor, told Axios: "If I make any decisions, I'll be sure to let you guys know."
• Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has mulled jumping into the crowded Senate race in his state, told Axios: "No comment yet, give me a week."
• Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), speculated as a potential primary challenger to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), said: "My political focus is taking back the House; my leadership PAC, Beyond Thoughts and Prayers, is again going to be supporting battleground Democrats."

Yes, but: Others who had considered bids for higher office are firmly ruling out leaving the House — at least for now.

• Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), previously floated as a potential challenger to Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), told Axios he is "staying put" in the House.
• Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), seen as a Democratic Party rising star, is "not considering" any statewide runs, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

By the numbers: More than a half dozen House members are already running for other offices — six for governor, one for Senate — with at least another 30 considering runs.

• Some are conditioning their plans on what political heavyweights in their states do: Several ambitious House Republicans in Georgia, for instance, have said they would only consider running against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passes on a bid.
• The same dynamic is at play for incumbent senators, with numerous House Democrats waiting to see whether Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) retires.

Others may jockey behind the scenes for appointments to fill the seats of senators who are expected to run for governor.

• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Axios he is interested in replacing Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) if she is elected governor.
• Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) are both being floated as potential picks to replace Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

What to watch: Several races could see a slugfest between multiple House members.

• A recent 314 Action Fund poll showed a close race between Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) for Durbin's seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) trailing.

The Department of Homeland Security offered a brief two-page memo as its evidence in the case against Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil ahead of Friday's hearing that will likely decide if the detained legal permanent resident is deported from the U.S.

The big picture: The memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio leaned heavily on the U.S.' right to remove noncitizens whose presence in the country would "compromise a compelling U.S. foreign policy interest."

• The memo obtained by Axios does not allege criminal conduct by Khalil and he has not been charged with any crime.
• At the time of Khalil's arrest, ICE informed him that his student visa was revoked, and upon learning he was a legal resident, they revoked his green card instead, his attorney told Axios after his arrest.

Driving the news: In the memo, Rubio wrote that allowing Khalil to remain in the country would "undermine U.S. policy to combat anti-Semitism around the world and in the United States, in addition to efforts to protect Jewish students from harassment and violence in the United States."

• Khalil could be expelled for his participation and roles in "anti-Semitic protests and disruptive activities," Rubio's letter states.
• The memo echoes similar arguments the government has made in other legal filings for the case. They've also said Khalil had failed to disclose a job with the British Embassy in Lebanon and his membership with a United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees on his green card application.

Several Trump administration officials have made allegations regarding Khalil's behavior while at Columbia, but not provided any evidence for the claims.

• A White House official said that the Department of Homeland Security had been investigating Khalil prior to his arrest and found he was actively, but not materially, supporting Hamas.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last month that Khalil had "harassed Jewish-American students and made them feel unsafe on their own college campus" and "distributed pro-Hamas propaganda, flyers with the logo of Hamas."

The other side: Khalil's attorneys argue that the government has provided no analysis or evidence that show their client is a threat to national security.

• "Whether the government can act in violation of the Constitution to deport someone is front and center, and our position is that it cannot," Khalil's attorney, Marc Van Der Hout, said during a press briefing Thursday.
• His legal team said they plan to contest the evidence provided by the government and to ask to depose Rubio.
• Khalil is being held in Louisiana and his lawyers are seeking his immediate release, arguing his detention is in violation of the First Amendment.

Go deeper: DOJ alleges key omissions on Mahmoud Khalil's green card application

Siemens executive Agustín Escobar and his family were among six people to die when a helicopter crashed in the Hudson River, between New York and New Jersey, on Thursday, the company confirmed in an email.

The latest: The Spanish executive, his wife, Merce Camprubi Montal, and children who were 4, 5, and 11, were aboard the helicopter when it crashed. The pilot, who also died in the crash, was not immediately identified.

• "We are deeply saddened by the tragic helicopter crash in which" the Barcelona-based family lost their lives, a Siemens spokesperson said in an email on Friday morning. "Our heartfelt condolences go out to all their loved ones."

The big picture: New York City Mayor Eric Adams said during a press briefing the bodies were removed from the river following the crash, which was reported about 3pm Thursday.

• The Bell 206 helicopter was submerged in the Hudson as of 4:30pm Thursday ET, a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) statement said.

Zoom in: The Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board will investigate the incident.

• The New York City Fire Department said its units were responding, with land marine units performing rescue operations.
• The fire department was assisting first responders closer to the New Jersey side of the river, per New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

What they're saying: "Terrible helicopter crash in the Hudson River. Looks like six people, the pilot, two adults, and three children, are no longer with us. The footage of the accident is horrendous," President Trump said on Truth Social.

• "God bless the families and friends of the victims. Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, and his talented staff are on it. Announcements as to exactly what took place, and how, will be made shortly!"

Zoom out: This is the latest air crash in a year with aviation anxiety due to several collisions, though flying remains the safest way to travel.

• A fatal helicopter-plane crash in January prompted the FAA to permanently halt non-essential helicopter operations last month near Reagan National Airport outside of Washington, D.C.
• At least 32 people died in NYC helicopter accidents from 1977 to 2019, per an AP analysis.
• In 2018, five people drowned after a charter helicopter crashed into the East River. The pilot survived.

Go deeper: FAA closes helicopter route near D.C. airport after fatal crash

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Iran is considering proposing during talks with the U.S. that the two countries work on an interim nuclear agreement before pursuing negotiations over a comprehensive deal, a European diplomat and a source familiar with the issue thinking told Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump has set a two-month deadline for negotiations with Iran on a new nuclear deal — and in the meantime ordered a build up of U.S. military forces in the Middle East as another option if diplomacy fails.

• If a deal isn't reached, Trump could order a U.S. military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities or support an Israeli strike.
• The sources said the Iranians think reaching a complex and highly technical nuclear deal in two months is unrealistic and they want to get more time on the clock to avoid an escalation.
• "The Iranians seem to believe that a sustainable deal is unlikely to be achieved in the timeframe that President Trump has in mind. It might therefore be necessary to consider an interim agreement as a way station toward a final deal," says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
• The Iranian Mission to the UN declined to comment.

Between the lines: An interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran could include suspending some of Iran's uranium enrichment activity, diluting its 60% enriched uranium stockpile and allowing UN inspectors more access to Iran's nuclear facilities.

• Experts told Axios these steps would only slightly increase Iran's timeline for developing a nuclear bomb. But they could help build trust for negotiations on a comprehensive deal.
• An interim agreement could also involve extending the "snapback" mechanism that was part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The mechanism, which triggers UN Security Council sanctions against Iran if it violates the agreement, is set to expire in October.
• France, the UK and Germany told Iran they are going to trigger the "snapback" of sanctions if no new deal is reached by the end of June.

Yes, but: An interim agreement would likely also include demand from Iran that Trump suspend his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran's economy. It is not clear if Trump would be willing to do that.

• This week the Trump administration imposed two rounds of new sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals connected to the nuclear program and the oil industry.
• An Iranian proposal for an interim agreement could also further increase suspicion and skepticism in the Trump administration about Iranian leaders' intentions and whether they are trying to buy time without rolling back their nuclear program.

Catch up quick: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to hold talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday in Oman.

• While the U.S. still says the talks are going to be direct, the Iranians maintain the negotiations will be through Omani mediators.

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office there is "a little time ... but not much time" for negotiations.

• "When you start talks, you know pretty quickly whether they're going well or not. So the conclusion would be — when I feel they're not going well,"he said.
• Trump said his key demand is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.
• "But if it requires military, we're going to have military. Israel will obviously be very involved in that — maybe even lead it. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do," he said.

The other side: On Thursday, the former head of Iran's national security council Ali Shamkhani, who is now a foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the continued military threats against Iran "may lead to deterrent measures."

• He suggested Iran could expel International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and cease to cooperate with the nuclear watchdog, and potentially transfer enriched materials "to secure locations" not monitored by the UN.

Stocks plunged Thursday, erasing a big chunk of Wednesday's market rebound as traders digested the remaining threats from President Trump's tariff frenzy.

Why it matters: As escalating trade war with China has taken center stage.

By the numbers: Red ink was everywhere as of about 3 p.m., even though stocks had rebounded well off session lows:

• The Dow was down 825 points, or 2%, to 39,787.
• The S&P 500 index was off 2.8% to 5,306 after Wednesday posting the third largest single-day percentage increase since 1939.
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 3.6% to 16,513.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 4% to 1,837.

The intrigue: Just about the only index on the rise was the Vix — the volatility index — which rises when volatility is increasing.

• It was up 23% Thursday afternoon.

The big picture: Investors' immediate hopes following Trump's reciprocal tariff pause Wednesday have proved short-lived, giving way to fears of a fracturing global economy from the tariffs that remain in place.

• "While the acute near-term risk of a recessionary feedback loop has been averted, the chronic problem of policy volatility and related uncertainties persists," according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Investors are spooked that the Trump administration has "arguably shown a greater tolerance for causing a recession than many might have thought," writes Thomas Mathews, head of markets, Asia Pacific, at Capital Economics.

The bottom line: The tariffs pause did not extinguish the market's volatility.

President Trump blew up global trade and rattled the economy with huge, hotly disputed tariffs on major trading partners. Exactly one week later, he said never mind.

Why it matters: The new question for top CEOs and Wall Street traders is which of Trump's "burn-it-all-down" economic policies actually stick.

• "125% on China + permanent uncertainty that this volcano can erupt again at any moment probably means a recession can still happen," investor Spencer Hakimian posted to X — though he noted it was still better for growth than the alternative.

The intrigue: The reciprocal tariffs are paused, though at least two threats to the global economy have only grown:

• Forever uncertainty and eroding trust — a combination that makes it unpalatable for businesses to expand or invest.
• Global allies may see trade deals as more flimsy than in recent years, further crushing the reliability of the U.S. as a trading partner.

Threat level: If businesses pivot to adjust to Trump's trade policies, they might get burned by a policy reversal.

• But a slow pivot could be equally painful, if promised negotiations fall through and huge tariffs loom on the other side of the White House freeze.

What they're saying: The reciprocal tariff freeze is a positive development but "on-again, off-again tariff announcements must have our partners perplexed, not knowing what could come next," former acting deputy U.S. trade representative Wendy Cutler tells Axios.

• "It's even possible that with more time U.S. negotiating requests increase, making the already difficult negotiations more complex."

For businesses, Cutler adds, "it does little to create confidence and certainty, leading many to hold off on further investment decisions for at least a few months."

• Economists agree. "Companies will slow walk hiring and investment decisions until they get clarity on trade policies," Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, wrote in a note to clients.
• It's not great for markets either. "Certainly investor confidence in the predictability of policy in the US has gone down, maybe not permanently, but certainly for the short term," wrote Chris Marangi, co-CIO of Value at Gabelli Funds, in a note.

The big picture: By leaving a 10% baseline levy in place, the U.S. economy must still grapple with tariffs — plus those on steel, aluminum and more — that would be massive in any other context. All U.S.-bound Chinese goods now face a staggering tariff of 125%.

• But in the eyes of Wall Street traders, what looked like a worldwide trade war now primarily looks like a U.S.-China trade war — a step down that suggests further tariff easing down the line. But that is no guarantee.
• Goldman Sachs rescinded its call of higher recession odds after the White House tariff pause — just hours after the note was published to clients.

What to watch: The White House insisted there would be no pause in the reciprocal tariffs. Then came a pause.

• Advisers said the reciprocal tariffs were non-negotiable. But today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would help lead trade negotiations with dozens of nations.

"You have to have flexibility," Trump said, responding to a question about his credibility on Wednesday.

• "I could say, 'here's a wall, I'm going to go through it no matter what,' and you keep going and you can't go through the wall," he said. "Sometimes you have to go under the wall, around the wall or over the wall."

The GOP's Senate campaign arm delivered a blunt warning to Republicans on Thursday: Democrats are about to swamp you in cash.

Why it matters: Senate Republicans were caught flat-footed in states like Nebraska in 2024. They don't want a repeat of that scare in 2026, when they know Democrats will have the edge on fundraising and enthusiasm.

• NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper drew mumbles from GOP chiefs of staff on Thursday when she said many Senate campaigns are being outraised by House rank-and-file lawmakers, a source familiar told Axios.
• DeCasper also pointed to Georgia, where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised a record-breaking $11 million during the first three months of the year.
• Democrats have an amped-up fundraising base (see the Florida special elections) and are positioned to pump cash into independent candidates against GOP incumbents, even in deep-red states, DeCasper warned.

The bottom line: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) — whose reelection is rated "Solid R" by Cook Political Report — has a likely independent challenger in Dan Osborn, who gave Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) a tough race in 2024.