President Trump's diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia and is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin on Friday, according to a source familiar with the trip and FlightRadar data.

Why it matters: This will be the third meeting between Witkoff and Putin as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Friction point: Trump has become frustrated that negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks, and said at one point that he was "pissed off" about comments Putin had made on Ukraine.

• If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.
• "We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

Driving the news: Last week, Witkoff hosted Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Washington in an effort to break the logjam.

• While Ukraine agreed to Trump's proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and subsequently agreed to plans for a smaller-scale maritime ceasefire, Russia made a series of new demands, including the lifting of some U.S. sanctions.
• "We are making progress. We hope that we are getting relatively close to getting a deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the fighting," Trump said on Thursday during a Cabinet meeting.

State of play: The U.S. and Russia implemented a prisoner exchange deal on Thursday that included the release of dual U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina.

• The negotiations on the deal were a result of a previous meeting between Witkoff and Putin in March.
• Trump said he appreciated Putin's decision to release Karelina. He mentioned Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) CEO Dana White told him she is the girlfriend of a UFC fighter and asked him to help in releasing her.
• U.S. and Russian diplomats met again on Thursday in Istanbul to discuss the normalization of relations between the countries.
• A State Department spokesperson did not immediatel respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening about Witkoff's trip.

Egg prices rose to a record high of $6.23 per dozen in March, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Thursday.

The big picture: President Trump claimed credit last month for a drop in wholesale egg prices as bird flu outbreaks that forced producers to cull millions of chickens and led to shortages waned and his administration moved to tackle higher prices by boosting egg imports.

• However, consumers don't typically immediately see wholesale price drops reflected at the grocery store, per Axios' Kelly Tyko and Nathan Bomey.
• And eggs are in high demand over the Jewish holiday of Passover, which starts Saturday, and Easter, held on April 20 this year. This can drive prices higher.

By the numbers: The price for a dozen grade A large eggs increased from $5.90 in February to $6.23, per the BLS. In January, it was $4.95 a dozen.

• Wholesale egg prices have fallen from an average of $6.55 per dozen on Jan. 24 to $3.26 last Friday, per Agriculture Department data.

Between the lines: "In the same way that just because the barrel price of oil goes down does not mean that gas prices immediately go down, there's a delay here," said University of Arkansas agricultural economist Jada Thompson in a blog post this week.

• "Retailers get to choose their own price, and they took a lot of losses when prices were exceptionally high," Thompson added.
• "They may be saying, 'I've lost money over here, so I'm going to let what I have in stock go out at the price it currently is before I lower the price, to compensate for that earlier loss.'"

Go deeper: Why food prices are still high, five years after COVID

President Trump threatened Mexico with more tariffs and sanctions on Thursday over a water dispute at the southern border.

What he's saying: "Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation," Trump said in a Truth Social post, referring to a 1944 agreement that requires Mexico to deliver to U.S. 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle.

• "This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers," Trump said..
• "I will make sure Mexico doesn't violate our Treaties, and doesn't hurt our Texas Farmers. ... we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!" he added.

Context: By the end of last year, Mexico had only delivered 488,634 AF of water since Oct. 2020, per U.S. International Boundary and Water Commission data.

• The State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs last month said on X Mexico's "continued shortfalls in its water deliveries" were "decimating American agriculture," particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley.
• "As a result ... for the first time, the U.S. will deny Mexico's non-treaty request for a special delivery channel for Colorado River water to be delivered to Tijuana," it added.
• Mexican officials say extreme drought fueled by climate change was contributing to water shortages.

The other side: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum cited the three-year drought in a post to X addressing Trump's complaints and said "to the extent water is available, Mexico has been complying" with the treaty.

• She said she had instructed government officals "to immediately contact" the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the State Department and she's "confident that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached."

The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday said it would begin phasing out animal testing requirements for antibody therapies and other drugs and move toward AI-based models and other tools it deems "human-relevant."

Why it matters: The agency is trying to reaffirm its role as a leader in modern regulatory science amid DOGE-directed cuts that have rattled drug developers and investors and stoked concerns about timely product reviews.

Driving the news: The FDA said it would launch a pilot program over the next year allowing select developers of monoclonal antibodies to use a primarily non-animal-based testing strategy.

• Commissioner Marty Makary in a statement said the shift would improve drug safety, lower research and development costs and address ethical concerns about animal experimentation.
• "This initiative marks a paradigm shift in drug evaluation and holds promise to accelerate cures and meaningful treatments for Americans while reducing animal use," Makary said.

Zoom in: FDA said its roadmap envisions using computer modeling and AI to predict a drug's behavior and possible side effects, through software simulations of how a monoclonal antibody distributes through the human body.

• It also will promote the use of lab-grown human "organoids" and "organ-on-a-chip" technology that mimic the liver, heart, and immune organs to test drug safety and reveal possible toxic effects that can go undetected in animals.
• Officials said companies that submit strong safety data from non-animal tests may receive streamlined product reviews. And the FDA will begin using safety data from other countries with comparable regulatory standards to help determine a drug's efficacy.

What they're saying: "The initiative combines deregulatory themes and cutting-edge technology — all in service of the broadly popular goal of reducing animal testing," TD Cowen analyst Rick Weissenstein wrote in a note.

• PETA said the new policies were "a significant step" towards replacing the use of animals, including vaccine and other testing on monkeys at federally-funded primate centers.
• Some health tech stocks rose on the news, including Certara Inc., a maker of biosimulation software. Animal testing firms Inotiv and Charles River Laboratories fell in after-hours trading.
• PhRMA, the drug industry trade group, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

UAW workers are poised to stomach thousands of dollars in reduced payments because of President Trump's auto tariffs, according to new estimates.

Why it matters: The left-leaning union is supporting the Republican's auto tariffs, saying free trade hurts American manufacturing and arguing that the automakers can afford to absorb the financial blow.

Between the lines: The average hourly UAW-represented worker for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis will get a profit-sharing check reduction of anywhere from $1,000 to more than $5,000, according to Anderson Economic Group.

• "For some automakers, with Stellantis being the most vulnerable at the current time, the effects of a prolonged tariff war could lead to operating losses that cause payouts to go to zero," the Michigan-based firm estimates in a new report.

How it works: UAW autoworkers get annual profit-sharing checks based on the North American profits of their employers.

• That's particularly problematic for union members because Trump's tariffs are expected to hit North American profits hard.
• Trump this week paused his reciprocal tariffs, except on China, but maintained his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

Zoom in: Anderson Economic Group based its estimate on a projection of lower sales and higher costs for the automakers, collectively leading to a reduction of more than $5 billion in adjusted earnings in 2025.

• The economists projected a 1-million unit decline in annual new vehicle sales in the U.S. — a figure that includes non-UAW-represented automakers.
• The group conducted the analysis at the request of the Detroit Free Press, spokesperson Lisa Wootton Booth said.
• "Some Wall Street analysts who reviewed Anderson's math also agreed with it, with some saying it's likely conservative," the Free Press reported.

The other side: The UAW — which did not immediately respond to a request for comment — has argued that its workers and the union movement will win in the long run from increased tariffs.

• "These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a recent statement.

By the numbers: This year's profit-sharing checks for UAW-represented workers, based on 2024 earnings, were:

• $14,500 at GM.
• $10,208 at Ford.
• $3,780 at Stellantis.

More than half a dozen members of Congress from the New York metro area were ushered off a flight Thursday after another plane clipped its wing while taxiing at Washington Reagan National Airport.

Why it matters: Several Democratic lawmakers were quick to cast the incident as a consequence of DOGE cuts to the Federal Aviation Administration.

• "When planes are taking off and landing every minute of the day, FAA funding is cut, air traffic controllers are fired and current staff is spread thinner ... that is when mistakes happen," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
• Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), who was on the flight, said the incident "underscores the urgent need for more FAA funding—people's lives are at stake. Cuts and firing FAA employees are not the answer."
• The FAA confirmed the incident in a statement and said it has launched an investigation. Both were American Airlines flights with one headed to JFK in New York and the other going to Charleston, South Carolina.

By the numbers: Seven House members, along with "dozens of other concerned passengers," were on the flight, Meeks said.

• A lawmaker who was on the flight told Axios the passengers included Meeks and Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.).
• The lawmakers and other passengers were removed from the flight shortly after the incident.

What happened: LaLota said in a post on X that "another plane just bumped into our wing," and that the plane headed back to the gate afterward.

• "While waiting on the runway to fly out of DC today, another plane clipped the wing of the plane my colleagues and I were on," Meng said on X.

Top Senate Democrats plan to unveil legislation that would provide an emergency $200 monthly increase in Social Security benefits through the end of the year, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's the party's latest effort to highlight the Trump administration's tariff policies and now-scrapped DOGE-driven plans for service reductions to the popular benefits program.

• Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will introduce the Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act, according to a source familiar with the plans.
• It's a brainchild of the caucus's Social Security War Room.

Driving the news: The Democrats argue that the $200-a-month increase is necessary to shield beneficiaries from price increases stemming from Trump's tariff policies.

• Economists have warned that the levies are likely to drive inflation and — unlike in 2022 — that wages may struggle to keep up.
• The Social Security Administration this week backed off plans to drastically cut phone services after weeks of confusion and outcry.
• Democrats argue that their proposal shows a clear contrast with Republicans on entitlements, pointing to the GOP's plans to cut spending — and potentially Medicaid benefits — through budget reconciliation.

What they're saying: In an op-ed in the Financial Times on Wednesday, Warren called on Republicans to "stand ready to expand social security — not gut it — by passing an emergency, temporary adjustment."

• Schumer said on the Senate floor Thursday that Republicans "want to gut" Social Security.
• Top congressional Republicans have said they have no plans to reduce Social Security benefits.

Between the lines: The bill has no future in the Senate under Republican leadership. But it could still be a useful messaging tool for Democrats.

• Schumer and his party have used amendment votes to target vulnerable Republican senators who are up for reelection in 2026.
• Democrats could demand that the bill be included as an amendment to any legislation that the GOP wants to move through the Senate over the next year.

The cohort of House members eyeing higher offices keeps expanding, with at least three dozen lawmakers now actively running or considering bids for Senate and governor.

Why it matters: The dynamic could complicate things for both Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as they try to maximize attendance to thwart each others' plans.

• In Jeffries' case, he's already dealing with two vacancies caused by deaths and another member, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), in intensive care.
• But Jeffries told Axios he is not worried, saying House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) "has done a tremendous job; we've had complete attendance, absent a handful of medical emergencies."

What we're hearing: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling Axios he is "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table."

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is "99.9%" of the way to a gubernatorial run, a source familiar with her thinking told Axios.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) isn't ruling out a run for governor or Senate, saying in a statement to Axios he will "continue my service to the people of Georgia at whatever level they choose in the future."

The intrigue: Some House members, asked about their reported ambitions in interviews with Axios, demurred.

• Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), asked whether he is sizing up a run for governor, told Axios: "If I make any decisions, I'll be sure to let you guys know."
• Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has mulled jumping into the crowded Senate race in his state, told Axios: "No comment yet, give me a week."
• Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), speculated as a potential primary challenger to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), said: "My political focus is taking back the House; my leadership PAC, Beyond Thoughts and Prayers, is again going to be supporting battleground Democrats."

Yes, but: Others who had considered bids for higher office are firmly ruling out leaving the House — at least for now.

• Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), previously floated as a potential challenger to Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), told Axios he is "staying put" in the House.
• Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), seen as a Democratic Party rising star, is "not considering" any statewide runs, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

By the numbers: More than a half dozen House members are already running for other offices — six for governor, one for Senate — with at least another 30 considering runs.

• Some are conditioning their plans on what political heavyweights in their states do: Several ambitious House Republicans in Georgia, for instance, have said they would only consider running against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passes on a bid.
• The same dynamic is at play for incumbent senators, with numerous House Democrats waiting to see whether Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) retires.

Others may jockey behind the scenes for appointments to fill the seats of senators who are expected to run for governor.

• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Axios he is interested in replacing Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) if she is elected governor.
• Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) are both being floated as potential picks to replace Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

What to watch: Several races could see a slugfest between multiple House members.

• A recent 314 Action Fund poll showed a close race between Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) for Durbin's seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) trailing.

The Department of Homeland Security offered a brief two-page memo as its evidence in the case against Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil ahead of Friday's hearing that will likely decide if the detained legal permanent resident is deported from the U.S.

The big picture: The memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio leaned heavily on the U.S.' right to remove noncitizens whose presence in the country would "compromise a compelling U.S. foreign policy interest."

• The memo obtained by Axios does not allege any criminal conduct by Khalil and he has not been charged with any crime.
• At the time of Khalil's arrest, ICE informed him that his student visa was revoked, and upon learning he was a legal resident, they revoked his green card instead, his attorney told Axios after his arrest.

Driving the news: In the memo, Rubio wrote that allowing Khalil to remain in the country would "undermine U.S. policy to combat anti-Semitism around the world and in the United States, in addition to efforts to protect Jewish students from harassment and violence in the United States."

• Khalil could be expelled for his participation and roles in "antisemitic protests and disruptive activities," Rubio's letter states.
• The memo echoes similar arguments the government has made in other legal filings for the case. They've also said Khalil had failed to disclose a job with the British Embassy in Lebanon and his membership with a United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees on his green card application.

Several Trump administration officials have made allegations regarding Khalil's behavior while at Columbia, but not provided any evidence for the claims.

• A White House official said that the Department of Homeland Security had been investigating Khalil prior to his arrest and found he was actively, but not materially, supporting Hamas.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last month that Khalil had "harassed Jewish-American students and made them feel unsafe on their own college campus" and "distributed pro-Hamas propaganda, flyers with the logo of Hamas."

The other side: Khalil's attorneys argue that the government has provided no analysis or evidence that show their client is a threat to national security.

• "Whether the government can act in violation of the Constitution to deport someone is front and center, and our position is that it cannot," Khalil's attorney, Marc Van Der Hout, said during a press briefing Thursday.
• His legal team said they plan to contest the evidence provided by the government and to ask to depose Rubio.
• Khalil is currently being held in Louisiana and his lawyers are seeking his immediate release, arguing his detention is in violation of the First Amendment.

Go deeper: DOJ alleges key omissions on Mahmoud Khalil's green card application

Six people, including three children, died after a helicopter crashed in the Hudson River, between New York and New Jersey, on Thursday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said.

Details: A family from Spain was aboard the helicopter when it crashed, Adams said during a press briefing Thursday evening. The bodies have been removed from the river, he said.

• The crash was reported about 3pm, per the New York City Fire Department.
• The Bell 206 helicopter was submerged in the Hudson as of 4:30pm Thursday ET, a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) statement said.

Zoom in: The Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board will investigate the incident.

• The New York City Fire Department said its units were responding, with land marine units performing rescue operations.
• The fire department was assisting first responders closer to the New Jersey side of the river, per New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

What they're saying: "Terrible helicopter crash in the Hudson River. Looks like six people, the pilot, two adults, and three children, are no longer with us. The footage of the accident is horrendous," President Trump said on Truth Social.

• "God bless the families and friends of the victims. Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, and his talented staff are on it. Announcements as to exactly what took place, and how, will be made shortly!"

Zoom out: This is the latest air crash in a year with aviation anxiety due to several collisions, though flying remains the safest way to travel.

• A fatal helicopter-plane crash in January prompted the FAA to permanently halt non-essential helicopter operations last month near Reagan National Airport outside of Washington, D.C.
• At least 32 people died in NYC helicopter accidents from 1977 to 2019, per an AP analysis.
• In 2018, five people drowned after a charter helicopter crashed into the East River. The pilot survived.

Go deeper: FAA closes helicopter route near D.C. airport after fatal crash

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Iran is considering proposing during talks with the U.S. that the two countries work on an interim nuclear agreement before pursuing negotiations over a comprehensive deal, a European diplomat and a source familiar with the issue thinking told Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump has set a two-month deadline for negotiations with Iran on a new nuclear deal — and in the meantime ordered a build up of U.S. military forces in the Middle East as another option if diplomacy fails.

• If a deal isn't reached, Trump could order a U.S. military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities or support an Israeli strike.
• The sources said the Iranians think reaching a complex and highly technical nuclear deal in two months is unrealistic and they want to get more time on the clock to avoid an escalation.
• "The Iranians seem to believe that a sustainable deal is unlikely to be achieved in the timeframe that President Trump has in mind. It might therefore be necessary to consider an interim agreement as a way station toward a final deal," says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
• The Iranian Mission to the UN declined to comment.

Between the lines: An interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran could include suspending some of Iran's uranium enrichment activity, diluting its 60% enriched uranium stockpile and allowing UN inspectors more access to Iran's nuclear facilities.

• Experts told Axios these steps would only slightly increase Iran's timeline for developing a nuclear bomb. But they could help build trust for negotiations on a comprehensive deal.
• An interim agreement could also involve extending the "snapback" mechanism that was part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The mechanism, which triggers UN Security Council sanctions against Iran if it violates the agreement, is set to expire in October.
• France, the UK and Germany told Iran they are going to trigger the "snapback" of sanctions if no new deal is reached by the end of June.

Yes, but: An interim agreement would likely also include demand from Iran that Trump suspend his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran's economy. It is not clear if Trump would be willing to do that.

• This week the Trump administration imposed two rounds of new sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals connected to the nuclear program and the oil industry.
• An Iranian proposal for an interim agreement could also further increase suspicion and skepticism in the Trump administration about Iranian leaders' intentions and whether they are trying to buy time without rolling back their nuclear program.

Catch up quick: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to hold talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday in Oman.

• While the U.S. still says the talks are going to be direct, the Iranians maintain the negotiations will be through Omani mediators.

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office there is "a little time ... but not much time" for negotiations.

• "When you start talks, you know pretty quickly whether they're going well or not. So the conclusion would be — when I feel they're not going well,"he said.
• Trump said his key demand is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.
• "But if it requires military, we're going to have military. Israel will obviously be very involved in that — maybe even lead it. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do," he said.

The other side: On Thursday, the former head of Iran's national security council Ali Shamkhani, who is now a foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the continued military threats against Iran "may lead to deterrent measures."

• He suggested Iran could expel International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and cease to cooperate with the nuclear watchdog, and potentially transfer enriched materials "to secure locations" not monitored by the UN.

Stocks plunged Thursday, erasing a big chunk of Wednesday's market rebound as traders digested the remaining threats from President Trump's tariff frenzy.

Why it matters: As escalating trade war with China has taken center stage.

By the numbers: Red ink was everywhere as of about 3 p.m., even though stocks had rebounded well off session lows:

• The Dow was down 825 points, or 2%, to 39,787.
• The S&P 500 index was off 2.8% to 5,306 after Wednesday posting the third largest single-day percentage increase since 1939.
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 3.6% to 16,513.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 4% to 1,837.

The intrigue: Just about the only index on the rise was the Vix — the volatility index — which rises when volatility is increasing.

• It was up 23% Thursday afternoon.

The big picture: Investors' immediate hopes following Trump's reciprocal tariff pause Wednesday have proved short-lived, giving way to fears of a fracturing global economy from the tariffs that remain in place.

• "While the acute near-term risk of a recessionary feedback loop has been averted, the chronic problem of policy volatility and related uncertainties persists," according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Investors are spooked that the Trump administration has "arguably shown a greater tolerance for causing a recession than many might have thought," writes Thomas Mathews, head of markets, Asia Pacific, at Capital Economics.

The bottom line: The tariffs pause did not extinguish the market's volatility.

President Trump blew up global trade and rattled the economy with huge, hotly disputed tariffs on major trading partners. Exactly one week later, he said never mind.

Why it matters: The new question for top CEOs and Wall Street traders is which of Trump's "burn-it-all-down" economic policies actually stick.

• "125% on China + permanent uncertainty that this volcano can erupt again at any moment probably means a recession can still happen," investor Spencer Hakimian posted to X — though he noted it was still better for growth than the alternative.

The intrigue: The reciprocal tariffs are paused, though at least two threats to the global economy have only grown:

• Forever uncertainty and eroding trust — a combination that makes it unpalatable for businesses to expand or invest.
• Global allies may see trade deals as more flimsy than in recent years, further crushing the reliability of the U.S. as a trading partner.

Threat level: If businesses pivot to adjust to Trump's trade policies, they might get burned by a policy reversal.

• But a slow pivot could be equally painful, if promised negotiations fall through and huge tariffs loom on the other side of the White House freeze.

What they're saying: The reciprocal tariff freeze is a positive development but "on-again, off-again tariff announcements must have our partners perplexed, not knowing what could come next," former acting deputy U.S. trade representative Wendy Cutler tells Axios.

• "It's even possible that with more time U.S. negotiating requests increase, making the already difficult negotiations more complex."

For businesses, Cutler adds, "it does little to create confidence and certainty, leading many to hold off on further investment decisions for at least a few months."

• Economists agree. "Companies will slow walk hiring and investment decisions until they get clarity on trade policies," Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, wrote in a note to clients.
• It's not great for markets either. "Certainly investor confidence in the predictability of policy in the US has gone down, maybe not permanently, but certainly for the short term," wrote Chris Marangi, co-CIO of Value at Gabelli Funds, in a note.

The big picture: By leaving a 10% baseline levy in place, the U.S. economy must still grapple with tariffs — plus those on steel, aluminum and more — that would be massive in any other context. All U.S.-bound Chinese goods now face a staggering tariff of 125%.

• But in the eyes of Wall Street traders, what looked like a worldwide trade war now primarily looks like a U.S.-China trade war — a step down that suggests further tariff easing down the line. But that is no guarantee.
• Goldman Sachs rescinded its call of higher recession odds after the White House tariff pause — just hours after the note was published to clients.

What to watch: The White House insisted there would be no pause in the reciprocal tariffs. Then came a pause.

• Advisers said the reciprocal tariffs were non-negotiable. But today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would help lead trade negotiations with dozens of nations.

"You have to have flexibility," Trump said, responding to a question about his credibility on Wednesday.

• "I could say, 'here's a wall, I'm going to go through it no matter what,' and you keep going and you can't go through the wall," he said. "Sometimes you have to go under the wall, around the wall or over the wall."

The GOP's Senate campaign arm delivered a blunt warning to Republicans on Thursday: Democrats are about to swamp you in cash.

Why it matters: Senate Republicans were caught flat-footed in states like Nebraska in 2024. They don't want a repeat of that scare in 2026, when they know Democrats will have the edge on fundraising and enthusiasm.

• NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper drew mumbles from GOP chiefs of staff on Thursday when she said many Senate campaigns are being outraised by House rank-and-file lawmakers, a source familiar told Axios.
• DeCasper also pointed to Georgia, where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised a record-breaking $11 million during the first three months of the year.
• Democrats have an amped-up fundraising base (see the Florida special elections) and are positioned to pump cash into independent candidates against GOP incumbents, even in deep-red states, DeCasper warned.

The bottom line: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) — whose reelection is rated "Solid R" by Cook Political Report — has a likely independent challenger in Dan Osborn, who gave Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) a tough race in 2024.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) plans to launch his bid for governor of Colorado as soon as Friday, multiple sources familiar with his plans told Axios.

State of play: Bennet's bid sets up a high-profile showdown with Attorney General Phil Weiser for the state's chief executive post.

• The two candidates offer a contrast in styles and ideology with Bennet as the more moderate contender.
• A spokesperson for Bennet did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Case in point: Bennet voted in January to support President Trump's pick for Energy secretary, Chris Wright, touting the former Denver fracking executive's "deep expertise."

• Meanwhile, Weiser is positioned as the state's most prominent Trump adversary, using his powers to file more than a dozen lawsuits challenging the administration.

Context: Bennet, the former Denver Public Schools superintendent, is serving his third full-term in the U.S. Senate after being reelected in 2022.

• Weiser is in his second and final term as the state's top prosecutor.

The intrigue: This is the second time Bennet has looked to leave his Senate post. He ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 in a crowded field and failed to gain traction.

• Bennet is expected to keep his U.S. Senate seat while campaigning for governor.

The other side: Weiser didn't mince words when reacting to Bennet's entry into the race. In a statement to Axios, he labeled himself the "fighter Colorado needs" while downplaying Bennet's experience for the job.

• "Two years ago, the voters sent Sen. Bennet back to D.C. because we believe he would be there for us no matter what," Weiser said, adding: "Now more than ever, we need experienced Democratic leaders in Washington."

Earlier this week, Weiser announced high-profile endorsements from former Colorado first lady Dottie Lamm, the wife of the late Gov. Dick Lamm, and support from former Gov. Roy Romer, who will serve as a co-chair of the campaign.

• Anna Huck will lead Weiser's team as campaign manager. She most recently served as finance director for now-North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein's campaign.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser's comment.

While CEOs have stayed mostly mum on tariffs for fear of retribution, earnings season has forced some executives to discuss how Trump's trade policies could affect their businesses.

Why it matters: America's top business leaders are starting to communicate through the uncertainty in anticipation of changing consumer habits and prices.

What they're saying: "It's clearly a fluid environment. And while we don't know everything that's going to happen, of course, we do know what our priorities are, and we know what our purpose is, and we'll be focused on keeping prices as low as we can. We'll be focused on managing our inventory and our expenses well," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said during an investor presentation on Wednesday.

• "There is increasing consumer uncertainty and concern over returning to more inflation, and this has impacted consumer sentiment, particularly in the last month. ... as many are worried about the future, job security, and rising costs," McCormick chairman, president and CEO Brendan Foley said last month.
• "When it comes to tariffs, that's just another cost in the equation that we have to understand mutually," Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said at a retail conference on April 3.
• "With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled," Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian stated in an earnings release.

Meanwhile, Levi Strauss & Co. president and CEO Michelle Gass is leaning on brand loyalty and reputation to help navigate macroeconomic challenges.

• "As an iconic brand with more than 170 years of history, we've weathered challenging times before," she said in an earnings call this week. "We have a playbook that begins with leveraging the strength of our brand and our deep connection with consumers.
• "We know, especially during times like these, people turn to the brands they know and trust and prioritize value and quality, and that's what Levi's has always stood for. "

Some are simply voicing frustration with Trump's tariff chaos.

• "So look, I think basically that the game has changed and now it's, it kind of doesn't matter where you go, I mean, except America," RH chairman and CEO Gary Friedman said on an earnings call right after Trump's tariff announcement on April 2.
• "Tariff is not a beautiful word. I disagree with that — we are in a global economy. ... You cannot apply this type of gridlock and this much friction to the world's trade," Life Time Group Holdings CEO Bahram Akradi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
• "These tariffs are turning me in to a dem," GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen quipped on X.

Zoom in: Internally, executives are highlighting the steps they took in advance to prepare for tariffs.

• Some have formed task forces, while others have opted for all-staff meetings to provide real-time updates and address employee questions.

Of note, privately held companies and nonprofits are choosing to stay quiet.

• "Some say that it's too soon to fully understand the ramifications, so they're holding on communicating until there's more clarity on what's happening and how it affects their organization," says Shallot Communications co-founder Tim Granholm.

What to watch: How business leaders communicate — and who they blame — should a recession take shape.

• "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during a lunchtime appearance at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

More on Axios:

• Tariffs 101: What they are and how they work
• What a tariff recession might look like

Anti-American sentiment abroad has been on the rise, with President Trump's unpredictable trade policies exacerbating the issue.

Why it matters: Communication and marketing teams at multinational companies are grappling with how America's reputation might be impacting their own.

State of play: Since Trump took office in January, the average net favorability of the U.S. has fallen by roughly 20 points worldwide, with consumer markets in North America and Europe seeing some of the biggest declines, according to a Morning Consult analysis.

• Canadian consumers are among the most likely to avoid American brands due to U.S. trade policies.

In response, U.S. companies that operate internationally are preparing for backlash or boycotts as geopolitical tensions rise.

What they're saying: Engaging regional stakeholders — employees, vendors, partners and trade associations in the region — is important during moments of geopolitical tension, says Dave Samson, chief corporate affairs counsel at iQ360.

• "Business leaders should not shout from the mountaintops, because you don't want to invite unnecessary scrutiny, but opening up clear channels of communication with your employees, with your key stakeholders, is important," he said.
• "It seems like common sense, but in moments like this, people tend to hunker down when it's actually a time to speak out more, but not do it in a way that's going to invite public backlash."

Zoom in: One way to dodge backlash is to make sure regional marketing campaigns and consumer communications strike the right tone.

• "You're going to probably have some brand erosion," says Anne Marie Malecha, CEO of Dezenhall Resources. "I don't think there's any way around that right now, but the name of the game is survival. And survival happens by, first and foremost, doing no harm, no unforced errors."
• To avoid this, she adds, American multinationals should have communication experts in the region who "understand the culture in which they're operating" to make judgment calls on what locals might favor in terms of messaging.

Zoom out: Signaling to regional markets that you're anti-tariff could help soften the blow, says Lauren Tomlinson, principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs.

• "It's good to go out and talk about the impact that these tariffs will have on your particular business," she said. "For example, if you have to raise the cost of your product because it's more expensive to make, that is something that you should go out and talk about to kind of distance yourself from the tariff policy of the United States at the moment."

The bottom line: America's reputation "is the greatest geopolitical brand ever created," Wall Street Journal editor at large Gerry Baker recently wrote.

• "Brands have real value. It isn't always easy to calculate, but businesses from BlackBerry to Bud Light know when they have lost it. Destroying geopolitical brand value can be devastating too."

More on Axios:

• China vows to "fight to the end" over Trump's tariffs threat
• World leaders react to Trump's sweeping tariffs

There is now sand — a lot of it — in the gears of global commerce, and it won't be going away in the foreseeable future.

Why it matters: President Trump may have backed down on some of the most extreme — and hardest to justify — trade barriers he announced a week earlier. But the tariffs that remain in place still make for a more fractured global economy, albeit with slightly different fractures.

• Instead of waging an all-out trade war with practically all U.S. trading partners, all at once, the new policy alignment amounts to an escalated trade war with China amid ongoing skirmishes with the rest of the world.
• The era of frictionless global trade is over.

State of play: It's hard to overstate how much the escalation in U.S. trade policy over the last two months — and especially the last eight days — dwarfs anything in living memory.

• Even after Trump's retreat Wednesday, he is imposing a minimum 10% tariff on pretty much all goods from all countries. The last time the average tariff rate was that high was 1943.
• But a reciprocal 125% tariff on Chinese imports, plus additional tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, brings the average effective tariff rate to 25.3%, per the Yale Budget Lab's calculations, the highest since 1909.
• Even after trade patterns shift toward lower-tariff countries (more Chinese manufacturing activity shifting to 10%-taxed Vietnam, for example), the Yale team estimates it will settle at 18.1%, the highest since 1934.

Between the lines: The big open question over the last eight days has been whether Trump's aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs were meant to be an over-the-top starting point for negotiation or a new standing feature of the global economy.

• Now we know that the answer is "yes."
• On one hand, he backed off the elevated tariffs for most countries for 90 days because, he claimed, 75 countries were clamoring to make a deal. That points to the "let's negotiate" theory.
• But the 10% baseline tariff looks to be the new cost of business for anyone relying on imports.
• It's distortionary and expensive, but low enough that there could be more room for firms to absorb it in the form of lower margins or tougher negotiations with suppliers than, say, the 46% levy originally proposed for Vietnam.

Zoom out: Wednesday's backdown shows that Trump, for all his trade war zeal, does respond to normal incentives. A plunging stock market, countless calls from CEOs and leaders of other countries, and frustrated Republican lawmakers clearly got his attention.

• The bond market's role looms particularly large, as a surge in long-term interest rates since Monday — and a corresponding plunge in Treasury bond prices — raised the prospect of ongoing damage to the U.S. government's ability to borrow.
• U.S. rivals surely took note; the notion of using the global bond markets as a tool of geopolitics is not unknown.

The bottom line: Global trade as most living Americans know it is over, even if the scale of the disruption ahead is lower than it was 24 hours ago.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Thursday overcame a sizable revolt of his members and passed a budget resolution that was endorsed by President Trump.

Why it matters: It puts Republican leaders one critical step closer to being able to pass a hulking fiscal bill that includes $4 trillion in tax cuts and a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.

• The path to success was not without its speed bumps: Johnson had to pull a Wednesday vote on the Senate budget resolution as fiscal hawks in his conference argued it didn't mandate nearly enough spending cuts.
• Johnson and the White House worked vigorously this week to reassure House Republicans that they would get the $1.5 trillion in cuts they are seeking.

What happened: The budget measure passed 216-214.

Democrats are bashing President Trump for sharing market advice with his Truth Social followers Wednesday hours before announcing a 90-day pause on most of his sweeping tariffs, elevating calls for a ban on congressional stock trading.

Why it matters: The badly bruised market soared on Wednesday following Trump's freeze on the historic levies — leaving some critics questioning who benefitted from the market mayhem.

• "BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well," Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday morning.
• The minutes later he posted a separate message: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"
• Then, early Wednesday afternoon, Trump abruptly announced the decision to suspend all but 10% baseline tariffs while hiking China levies to 125%.

Driving the news: That timeline turned some Democratic heads.

• "These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote on social media. On Thursday he shared a letter he co-authored with Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to inquire who knew about the U-turn ahead of time.
• "An insider trading scandal is brewing," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) chimed in. "Trump's 9:30am tweet makes it clear he was eager for his people to make money off the private info only he knew."
• Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) questioned in a video, "How is this not market manipulation?"

What they're saying: "It is the responsibility of the President of the United States to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security in the face of nonstop media fearmongering," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.

• "Democrats railed against China's cheating for decades, and now they're playing partisan games instead of celebrating President Trump's decisive action yesterday to finally corner China," the statement said.
• A Securities and Exchange Commission spokesperson declined to comment to Axios.

By the numbers: The Dow soared nearly 8% Wednesday, the S&P 500 index ballooned by more than 9% and Nasdaq closed up 12%, Axios' Nathan Bomey reported.

• In a since-scrutinized video of the president introducing Charles Schwab in the Oval Office Wednesday afternoon, Trump joked that Schwab, "made two-and-a-half billion today."

Zoom out: Some progressive Dems used the trade flip-flop as an opportunity to urge for a long-floated ban on members of Congress trading stock.

• "Members of Congress should never be allowed to trade stocks. Period," Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) wrote on Bluesky.
• Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) re-upped his call for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring legislation banning congressional stock trading to the floor, adding, "enough is enough!"
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) echoed that sentiment, writing, "Any member of Congress who purchased stocks in the last 48 hours should probably disclose that now."
• She added she'd been "hearing some interesting chatter on the floor" and predicted "we're about to learn a few things" with the financial disclosure deadline looming on May 15.

Context: The STOCK Act, passed in 2012, requires members of Congress to file financial disclosures of their stock trades within 30 days and established new penalties for insider trading, according to the Campaign Legal Center.

• But lawmakers are not banned from investing in companies, even ones that their work may intersect with.
• A 2022 New York Times analysis of members' transactions between 2019 and 2021 found that at least 97 lawmakers bought or sold stock, bonds or other assets related to their work or reported similar transactions by their spouse or child.

Yes, but: Trump's news came as a shock to many Republicans on the Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender reported.

• Mixed messaging from the White House — and a lack of advanced notice before Trump backed down — left GOP allies recovering from tariff whiplash alongside rest of the country and griping that loyalists were not looped in on the plans.

The other side: U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, who was testifying on Capitol Hill as Trump's announcement hit, said during questioning from Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) that Trump's tariff pause isn't "market manipulation."

• Horsford replied, "Then what is it? Because it sure is not a strategy."
• Greer answered, "We're trying to reset the global trading system."

Go deeper: Inside the Oval: 3 reasons Trump buckled on tariffs