The president campaigned on a promise to bring down grocery prices, but the new tariffs announced Wednesday will do the opposite for many staple foods.

Why it matters: The supermarket is where Americans feel the most affected by inflation.

The big picture: The groceries and food hit hardest, if these tariffs take effect, are the things mostly not grown or harvested in the U.S.

• For example: Coffee, chocolate, vanilla, bananas, fruits and vegetables from South America (the berries you buy in winter), a lot of shrimp.

By the numbers: Implementing the new reciprocal and baseline tariffs, on top of the other taxes on imports already imposed by the White House, would increase fresh produce prices by 4% and food prices overall by 2.8%, per the Yale Budget Lab's model.

• But prices for certain products will rise further.

Zoom in: Outside of some marginal production in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, the U.S. doesn't grow coffee beans, instead importing 99% of its coffee, per the National Coffee Association.

• And most of us drink it. 63% of adults in the U.S. drink coffee each day. Only 10% of Americans are eating eggs daily — recall the commotion when those prices went up.

There's also shrimp: You might have noticed shrimp at the grocery store is relatively affordable — that's partly because duties on imported shrimp are at zero.

• More than 94% of the shrimp Americans eat comes from other countries, according to International Trade Commission data cited by the Southern Shrimp Alliance, a U.S. industry group.
• And more than 90% of that comes from just four countries: Ecuador (imports from this country will face a 10% tariff); India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Vietnam (46%)
• "I think shrimp and seafood is going to get hit pretty hard," says Ed Gresser, trade director at the Progressive Policy Institute, who is a former assistant U.S. trade representative for policy and economics.
• However, the U.S. shrimp industry is happy. "We are grateful for the Trump Administration's actions today," said John Williams, executive director of the Southern Shrimp Alliance said in a statement. It "will preserve American jobs, food security, and our commitment to ethical production."

Chocolate: Most cocoa beans are imported. Prices have already risen quite a bit over the past few years.

• U.S. imports have fallen, with candy makers shrink-flating chocolate bars and pushing alternatives, as the USDA reports.

Big Macs could be in play. Though the U.S. imports only 12% of its beef, it's important meat.

• Australian farmers told Reuters they'd pass along the 10% beef tariffs to American consumers. "Australian beef is prized by U.S. fast food chains for its lower fat content, which is combined with fattier U.S. beef to produce hamburgers with the ideal fat content," Reuters reports.
• Last month the country's trade minister warned McDonald's hamburgers were at stake. The fast food giant did not immediately return an email request for comment.

Reality check: This could've been a lot worse. The President didn't include Mexico and Canada in his 10% baseline tariff assessment.

• Though those countries are now subject to 25% tariffs, there are exemptions under the USMCA that allow imports of goods that are actually made or grown in those countries.
• Canada is a top chocolate exporter. Mexico supplies a substantial amount of our fresh fruits and vegetables. In other words, there will be avocados.

Zoom out: Rising food prices are politically toxic. The president knows this. He took some time to muse on the topic yesterday.

• "An old-fashioned term that we use 'groceries," he said. "It sort of says a bag with different things in it. Groceries went through the roof. And I campaigned on that."

The bottom line: A reason to perk up? Coffee beans do keep for a while.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

Far-right activist Laura Loomer was at President Trump's side as he campaigned and is now visiting the Oval Office. Trump previously claimed he's unaware of the conspiracy theories Loomer promoted.

Why it matters: National Security Council staffers were fired on Thursday, a day after Loomer visited the Oval Office and pressed Trump to remove specific members.

• Some Republicans have sounded alarms over Loomer's presence in Trump's inner circle, concerned it's a sign he's moving deeper into a world of conspiracies and racism, Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson reported last year.

Relationship with Trump

The latest: Loomer was furious that "neocons" had "slipped through" the vetting process for Trump administration jobs, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler reported on Thursday.

• At the White House on Wednesday, she presented "research and evidence," per a U.S. official. The firings occurred on Thursday.
• Axios has not confirmed if the firings were directly linked to that incident.

Zoom out: Loomer, who previously said she doesn't work for Trump, is a frequent guest of Mar-a-Lago and was backstage at September's presidential debate.

• She traveled with him the following day to New York and Pennsylvania.

What she's saying: "It was an honor to meet with President Trump and present him with my research findings," Loomer wrote on X on Thursday.

• "I will continue working hard to support his agenda, and I will continue reiterating the importance of, and the necessity of STRONG VETTING, for the sake of protecting the President of the United States of America, and our national security."
• She also said she would not divulge details on the Oval Office meeting.

Trump was asked about Loomer and his relationship with her several times during a press conference in California last year, and said she's a "supporter" of him and his campaign.

• "I don't control Laura," he said. "Laura has to say what she wants. She's a free spirit."
• Pressed on whether he's aware of the conspiracy theories she espouses, he said "No, I don't know that much about it. ... I know she's a big fan of the campaign."
• He said in a Sept. 2024 post on his Truth Social platform: "I disagree with the statements she made but, like the many millions of people who support me, she is tired of watching the Radical Left Marxists and Fascists violently attack and smear me."

Conspiracy theories and racist commentary

Loomer, who has described herself as a "proud Islamophobe," has called the 9/11 attacks an "inside job." She also falsely claimed President Biden was behind the assassination attempt against Trump in July.

• Last year, she peddled another baseless conspiracy theory about Haitian immigrants eating pets — a claim that Trump also raised.
• Loomer, who has 1.2 million followers on X, had also posted that if Vice President Harris — whose mother immigrated from India — had been elected president, "the White House will smell like curry & White House speeches will be facilitated via a call center."

Rise to prominence as provocateur

Loomer has worked for conspiracy theorist Alex Jones' Infowars media platform, among other right-wing outlets.

• In one 2015 stunt, she posed as a Hillary Clinton supporter to try to entrap campaign workers into accepting illegal cash donations.
• Her social media presence is full of inflammatory posts about immigrants and other groups, including one celebrating the deaths of migrants crossing the Mediterranean. She denies being a racist, though she has described herself as pro-white nationalism.
• Her history of false claims include that multiple school shootings were staged.
• Getting banned from social media outlets like Twitter, Facebook and Instagram — for reasons including violating policies on hateful conduct and speech and for posting misinformation — helped build her notoriety, even as it cost her large followings on those platforms.

Failed races for Congress

Loomer is a twice-failed congressional candidate in Florida.

• She ran in 2020 as the GOP nominee for the state's 21st congressional district and again in the Republican primary for the 11th congressional district in 2022.

Go deeper:

• Anatomy of a Trump conspiracy theory
• Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details about the Trump administration firing National Security Council members. Axios' April Rubin contributed reporting.

The Department of Education sent letters Thursday to state K-12 agencies requiring them to comply with the Trump administration's anti-diversity policies to maintain their federal funding.

Why it matters: It's the Trump administration's latest action against public schools that threatens Title I funding, which provides support for low-income students.

State of play: State officials were given a certification form, due within 10 days, to vouch that their policies aligned with federal directives against DEI practices.

• The department referred to the Supreme Court's overturning of affirmative action as a basis for anti-diversity policies, in addition to the Trump administration's interpretation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act.

What they're saying: "Federal financial assistance is a privilege, not a right," Craig Trainor, acting assistant secretary for civil rights, wrote on Thursday. "When state education commissioners accept federal funds, they agree to abide by federal antidiscrimination requirements."

• "Unfortunately, we have seen too many schools flout or outright violate these obligations, including by using DEI programs to discriminate against one group of Americans to favor another based on identity characteristics."

Context: In a January executive order, Trump called for the end of diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility in schools and companies.

• They "undermine our national unity, as they deny, discredit, and undermine the traditional American values of hard work, excellence, and individual achievement in favor of an unlawful, corrosive, and pernicious identity-based spoils system," the executive order said.

Zoom out: Last month, the Trump administration targeted 45 schools for what it called "race-exclusionary practices" a part of the effort to crack down on diversity initiatives.

• In February, the Department of Education warned academic institutions that it may cut federal funding for those with policies related to race or diversity.

Go deeper: Trump-voting states have more to lose if Education Department dismantled

The world economic order is shifting beneath our feet, as historic allies look to America-proof their economies. President Trump's latest tariff announcement will accelerate the shift.

Why it matters: Global leaders and corporate executives alike are trying to figure out how to rejigger their economies to be less reliant on the U.S. in the longer run, even as they contemplate near-term retaliatory measures in hopes of lessening the tariff pain.

• Any economic delinking won't happen overnight. But the sense in Canada, Europe, and beyond is that their relationship with the U.S. has irreparably changed for the worse.

What they're saying: "Investors will be shocked how much things are going to move away from the US in standards, networks, and infrastructure — as well as services — in coming years," said Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England official.

• "The breach of trust and evident short-sighted self-dealing by the Trump Administration with regard to NATO and to trade reinforce each other," Posen, who just returned from a trip to Ottawa and has been speaking with European officials, added.
• "They make it more likely that Europe and the US will increasingly diverge in coming years economically as well as in security."

Driving the news: Top European Union official Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc was in the process of finalizing retaliatory measures for steel and aluminum tariffs.

• Next comes a potential response to the 20% across-the-board tariffs on European goods.
• "We are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail," von der Leyen said.

What to watch: In Europe and Canada — two of America's largest trading partners — officials have been blunt about the realities of a global system where the United States is less prominent.

• Germany has ditched its debt-averse mindset and ramped up borrowing for mega-investments in its defense sector in the wake of U.S. threats to back out of NATO.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week that the country's U.S. relationship "based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over."
• He added that Canada would "fundamentally reimagine our economy" in a way that might make it less reliant on America.

That sentiment was echoed in a recent conversation with one of Canada's leading business trade groups.

• "A lot of Canadians feel hurt and upset," Doug Griffiths, head of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce, tells Axios. "We are looking at investments that make us less dependent on the U.S.," he added. "I think we will ultimately be stronger, but I worry about you guys."

The intrigue: The value of the U.S. dollar has fallen sharply against other major currencies in the last 24 hours — in contrast to economic theory that predicts higher tariffs would drive a currency up.

• Analysts attribute the move to a sense that the U.S. may no longer serve its unique role in the global economy.
• Thierry Wizman, a foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie, writes that the role of the dollar as a safe haven "was already attenuating" in the first quarter, amid a "loss of American exceptionalism under the push for a more 'autarkic" trade regime."

The bottom line: In the short term, economists anticipate higher global inflation and slower world economic growth from Trump's tariff suite.

• But the potential economic delinking that plays out alongside those conditions might be more daunting.

One of the surprises out of Wednesday's big tariffs announcement was that the Trump administration used a surprisingly simplistic approach to calculating these much-hyped reciprocal tariffs.

Why it matters: This was not a finely tuned set of import taxes calibrated to exert pressure on trading partners to adjust specific policies with which the U.S. has grievances.

• Rather, it was some simple arithmetic, based on overall trade data, that became the justification for the most sweeping U.S. duties in generations — a trade-weighted 22.5% tariff, per the Yale Budget Lab, up from around 2.4% last year.
• It implies fewer off-ramps for countries that seek tariff relief, and thus less potential for de-escalation. If tariffs are applied without regard to the details of each country's economic policies and circumstances, what is there to negotiate?

State of play: Wednesday, some social media sleuths figured out, and the administration confirmed, that there was a simple formula behind the reason, say, Vietnam was slapped with a 46% tariff while Norway faces 15%.

• The formula is to divide the U.S. trade deficit with each country by that country's exports to the U.S. The final reciprocal tariff was then divided by 2, with a minimum of 10% (which applies even to those countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus).
• "While individually computing the trade deficit effects of tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies in each country is complex, if not impossible, their combined effects can be proxied by computing the tariff level consistent with driving bilateral trade deficits to zero," per the U.S. Trade Representative's explainer.

Between the lines: This logic implies that any country with which the United States experiences a trade deficit, regardless of the reason, is in some way a bad actor and requires tariffs as payback.

• But even if you believe that it's not good for the U.S. to run large, persistent overall trade deficits (which can contribute to financial imbalances and under-investment in key industries), it doesn't imply that there needs to be balanced trade with every individual country.
• Depending on U.S. consumer demand for a given country's exports, whether it seeks to buy U.S. financial assets, and myriad other factors, even in a world where there is balanced U.S. trade, some countries would be expected to run surpluses and others deficits.
• Moreover, the 10% minimum tariff — even on countries with which the U.S. runs a surplus — implies that tariffs of more than 4x their previous levels are a new minimum that will apply to the rest of the world, no matter how a given country tries to respond to U.S. concerns.

What they're saying: Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu of Wolfe Research write in a new note that "since these 'reciprocal' numbers are driven not by actual tariffs but by the simple fact of trade deficits, they will be very challenging to negotiate away, and policy changes may do nothing to alleviate them."

The bottom line: The calculation method used for this round of tariffs implies they won't be negotiated away quickly or easily.

Corporate America's reaction to President Trump's tariffs has been muted so far, with many relying on trade associations or special interest groups to speak on their behalf.

Why it matters: Corporate America has recently drawn a hard line in the sand regarding how and when they comment on public policy, social issues or cultural moments.

• The line is, "We only comment on policies that impact our business." For many companies — specifically those in automotive, retail and consumer goods — this moment would qualify.
• Plus, silence is a statement too.

Catch up quick: Trump ended the free-trade era on Wednesday by implementing 10% baseline tariffs on U.S. imports, plus steeper reciprocal levies on those from the European Union, China and Vietnam, among others.

• It's one of the "biggest, most abrupt economic gambles in presidential history," says Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin.

Driving the news: Axios reached out to more than a dozen Fortune 500 companies whose stock plummeted following the tariff news, none of which had comment.

• The Business Roundtable — the lobbying group that represents America's top CEOs — put out a statement on Wednesday warning that the universal tariffs "run the risk of causing major harm to American manufacturers, workers, families and exporters" and that "damage to the U.S. economy will increase the longer the tariffs are in place."
• Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called the tariffs "a tax increase that will raise prices for American consumers and hurt the economy."

Yes, but: Leaders from the automotive industry voiced concerns ahead of "Liberation Day," with Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley stating the tariffs will create "costs and chaos" and some are adjusting their production and manufacturing operations.

• Meanwhile, executives from Target, Best Buy, Mattel, Hasbro, Walmart and Costco preemptively warned consumers that price hikes are likely.

Between the lines: While "Liberation Day" didn't serve as a liberating moment for CEOs, some are voicing frustrations behind closed doors, according to corporate communicators who asked to speak on background.

• "It's already starting to feel like the tide is changing among CEOs. You can come for their workers' rights, but don't come for their money," said one communications leader from a major tech company.

The big picture: Business leaders will need to navigate the uncertainty and volatility brought forth by the Trump administration's policies and explain how these policies impact key audiences.

• Employees, in particular, are concerned about how these policies could affect their lives, employment or the business' broader operations.

What's next: First-quarter earnings season will get into swing next week, which will likely force many executives to address Trump's trade policies head-on.

What to watch: During the first administration, Trump's 2017 immigration ban opened the floodgates for corporate pushback, with Microsoft, Google, Apple, Facebook and other major tech companies arguing that the ban hindered business growth.

• The implementation of these trade policies could serve as a similar tipping point for his second term.

More on Axios:

• Trump takes the ultimate risk with the global economy
• Clothing prices could surge if these tariffs stick

Former Vice President Mike Pence will be honored with the 2025 John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award for putting his life and career on the line to certify the 2020 election, the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation announced Thursday.

Why it matters: Pence has been ostracized by President Trump and the Republican Party for refusing to overturn the 2020 presidential election amid the violent Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

Zoom in: The foundation said Thursday that despite extraordinary pressure to single-handedly overturn the results of the 2020 election, Pence stood firm in his commitment to democracy.

• Pence's actions ensured the constitutionally mandated transfer of power from Trump to newly elected President Biden.
• Pence upheld his duty in spite of a violent mob that was seeking to halt the certification by storming the U.S. Capitol and threatening his life. The Secret Service urged him to evacuate.

What they're saying: "Political courage is not outdated in the United States. At every level of government, leaders are putting country first, and not backing down," Caroline Kennedy and Jack Schlossberg said in a statement.

• "Despite our political differences, it is hard to imagine an act of greater consequence than Vice President Pence's decision to certify the 2020 presidential election during an attack on the U.S. Capitol."
• "His decision is an example of President Kennedy's belief that an act of political courage can change the course of history."
• Caroline Kennedy is JFK's daughter and Schlossberg is his grandson.

In a statement, Pence said he was "deeply humbled and honored to be the recipient" of the award.

• "I have been inspired by the life and words of President John F. Kennedy since my youth and am honored to join the company of so many distinguished Americans who have received this recognition in the past."

The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Pence's honor.

What's next: The award will be presented at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum on May 4 in Boston.

Zoom out: The John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award is presented annually to public servants for making a courageous decision of conscience without regard for the personal or professional consequences.

• The award was created in 1989 to honor President Kennedy's commitment and contribution to public service.
• The award is named for President Kennedy's Pulitzer Prize-winning book, "Profiles in Courage," which recounts the stories of eight U.S. senators who risked their careers by taking principled stands for unpopular positions.

Go deeper: Pence says he won't endorse Trump

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that the award is given by the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation (not the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum), and it was updated to include the place and time of the ceremony.

Several members of President Trump's embattled National Security Council have been fired, a U.S. official and a second source familiar told Axios on Thursday.

Why it matters: The firings come a day after conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer visited the Oval Office and pressed Trump to fire specific NSC staffers. Axios has not confirmed whether the firings were directly linked to that incident, but the source familiar said they were "being labeled as an anti-neocon move."

Behind the scenes: The U.S. official said Loomer was furious that "neocons" had "slipped through" the vetting process for administration jobs, referring to hawkish foreign policy views commonly associated with the Bush administration.

• "She went to the White House yesterday and presented them with her research and evidence," the official said. Loomer's visit was reported earlier by Status and The New York Times. The official suspected that the firings were linked to Loomer's visit but was not certain.
• The U.S. official named three senior NSC members who had been fired, and said it was shaping up to be a "bloodbath." Axios is seeking additional confirmation before naming those people.
• The source familiar said several people had been fired, possibly as many as 10, including senior directors. An NSC spokesperson declined to comment.

State of play: Axios has not confirmed whether any of the individuals let go were in any way connected to the separate controversy about the use of Signal and private email accounts by national security adviser Michael Waltz and NSC staff to discuss sensitive information.

• Waltz had accidentally added The Atlantic's editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg, whom Trump allies have labeled a "neocon," to a Signal chat about military strikes in Yemen.
• Trump considered firing Waltz at the height of the "Signalgate" scandal but ultimately decided to keep him and deny his critics a scalp, Axios' Marc Caputo and Mike Allen reported.

America is a large, rich country with a sweet tooth. Madagascar is a small, poor country with an abundance of vanilla. There's therefore a natural trade to be made: They send us their precious pods, we send them the dollars they need for day-to-day necessities.

Why it matters: By the logic of the Trump administration's new tariff regime, that's not a natural trade at all.

• Instead, it's proof that tiny Madagascar is "picking on us" (to quote Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick on CNBC this morning) by selling us its natural riches.

Zoom in: As the US Trade Representative sees it, every trade deficit is the result of "tens of thousands of tariff, regulatory, tax and other policies" — rather than reflecting any natural differences in the wealth and patrimony of different countries.

• In the case of Madagascar, because it runs a trade surplus with the United States, it is being hit with a 47% tariff, not only on vanilla but also on everything else it exports to us.
• The stated aim is to find a tariff large enough to bring that deficit down to zero.
• Given that Madagascar has precious little need for U.S. exports, that means in practice that the tariff has to be big enough to stop Americans from consuming more than a thousand tons of vanilla every year.

The big picture: When nice things more get expensive, we consume less of them, or move to cheaper alternatives.

• We'll use synthetic instead of natural vanilla, we'll swap domestic beer for imported wine, we'll drink coffee made from robusta rather than arabica beans.
• The losers are the exporters, to be sure — they make fewer sales to Americans, although in general they'll just sell to other countries instead.
• But among the losers must also be counted the U.S. consumers who valued those everyday luxuries in the first place and are now forced to cut back.

What they're saying: "The new U.S. tariffs won't affect the reputation of Italian wines, which continue to be regarded as high-quality by American consumers," says Italian wine merchant Andrea Moradei of Vinarium.

• "However, the impact on demand will be significant," he adds.

The bottom line: The U.S. doesn't produce a lot of luxury goods for export. The French don't drink much California cabernet; the Scots rarely covet Kentucky bourbon.

• If Trump and Lutnick want to tariff their way to their stated aim of a trade balance of zero, then Americans are going to have to do much less of the one thing they're the best in the world at, which is consuming things.
• Sorry, cigar aficionados.

A nationwide anti-President Trump movement on Saturday, "Hands Off!," is expected to be the largest single-day protest since he entered office.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's wide-reaching and ground-shaking policies have mobilized a varied cross section of Americans affected by political, economic, social and legal changes.

• "This is not just corruption," the Hands Off! website said. "This is not just mismanagement. This is a hostile takeover."

By the numbers: More than 1,100 rallies, visibility events and meetings were scheduled in all 50 states as of Wednesday afternoon.

• Organizers said they had nearly 250,000 RSVPs as of March 29.

The latest: White House garden tours scheduled for Saturday were postponed to Sunday in anticipation of D.C. protests, first lady Melania Trump said on Thursday.

State of play: Protesters are rallying against several Trump administration policies, including its handling of Social Security benefits, layoffs across the federal workforce, attacks on consumer protections and anti-immigrant policies and attacks on transgender people.

• The protests are also against Elon Musk's involvement in the federal government via DOGE — after he's already faced a wave of demonstrations at Tesla dealerships worldwide via the #TeslaTakedown movement.
• The Hands Off! demonstrations will occur at state capitals, federal buildings, congressional offices and city centers.
• Dozens of advocacy organizations are partnering to support Saturday's action, including the Center for LGBTQ Economic Advancement & Research, Declaration for American Democracy, the Human Rights Campaign, Indivisible and Planned Parenthood.

What they're saying: "This is a nationwide mobilization to stop the most brazen power grab in modern history," the movement's website said.

• "Trump, Musk, and their billionaire cronies are orchestrating an all-out assault on our government, our economy, and our basic rights—enabled by Congress every step of the way."

Zoom in: The movement hosted a virtual safety and deescalation training on Wednesday, after a Tuesday virtual meeting with nearly 35,000 RSVPs, recorded for posterity, gave general information on the protests and the Trump administration.

• "Whether they get away with any particular effort doesn't matter as much as the message that they are sending so loud and so clear, which is sowing fear, sowing the feeling of powerlessness," Deirdre Schifeling, the ACLU's chief political and advocacy officer, said on Tuesday.

Zoom out: Consumers have also been protesting corporations with boycotts, especially over anti-diversity policies since the start of the Trump administration.

Go deeper: The Trump 2.0 resistance: Alive, but evolved

Editor's note: This story was updated with news about the White House garden tours.

Stocks plunged Thursday, as President Trump's sweeping tariff plan kicked off a trade war with broad consequences for the global economy.

Why it matters: The stock market is not the economy, but the reaction is an early, visceral demonstration of the fear the public has over rising prices, slowing growth and the possibility of a recession.

The latest: U.S. indices had their worst day in about 5 years.

• The S&P 500 ended down 4.8%, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020.
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq was off 6%, its worst decline since March 2020.
• The Russell 2000 ended 6.6% lower, its worst day since March 2020. That index, which is considered the benchmark for small-cap stocks, entered into a "bear market," down more than 20% from its late-November highs.
• Those losses followed international weakness, with Japan's Nikkei closing 2.8% lower and the pan-European Stoxx 600 index off 2.6%.

Zoom in: Apparel retail and tech companies led the decline.

• Among the leading decliners in the S&P 500, Dell, Best Buy, Ralph Lauren and Norwegian Cruise Lines all lost more than 15%.
• The Magnificent 7 stocks that led markets higher the last two years were broadly lower as well, with Apple and Amazon both down about 9%.

What they're saying: "Markets are going to continue to struggle with the speed at which tariff details change as well as the ultimate result of the tariffs themselves (e.g. the magnitude of the tariffs)," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said in a note.

• "The silver lining for investors could be that this is only a starting point for negotiations with other countries and ultimately tariff rates will come down across the board – but for now traders are shooting first and asking questions later."

The intrigue: Many investors had hoped Trump's tariff announcement would end weeks of uncertainty over the future of U.S. trade policy.

• They didn't get their wish.
• "For a stock market that was craving certainty, there is now even more ambiguity than before this announcement, " said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group in California, in a note.

The big picture: Over the long term, it's not necessarily unusual for U.S. stocks to be down 3% or more in a day — historically, it happens on average almost four times a year, per a 2018 analysis.

• But lately it's been rarer — the last 3% down day for the S&P 500 was in August 2024, and before that September 2022.

Go deeper ... Trump's tariffs list is missing one big country: Russia

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest market action.

President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plan is one of the biggest, most abrupt economic gambles in presidential history.

• He acted against the advice of most business leaders, many economists and even some Republican officials.

Why it matters: The reciprocal tariffs, which go into effect in one week, target vital trading partners with massive levies — the kind that could raise consumer prices, interrupt business activity and upend global trade.

The big picture: With a single stroke of his pen, Trump seeks to re-order the global economy in a way that he believes will create a golden age for U.S. industry.

• A senior White House official called President Trump's announcement of new tariffs yesterday the "most ambitious economic realignment the American people have ever seen." It's hard to disagree.
• In less than 100 days, Trump has made an historic attempt to choke off the flow of foreign goods — or at least make it much pricier for Americans to consume them.
• But there's a reason all those people have recommended a more restrained approach. Prices on imported goods are likely to surge, a recession is possible, and far-reaching ripples in international economics and diplomacy are a certainty.
• Trump, in disregarding those recommendations, touched the hot stove, knowing he risks getting burned.

State of play: It's hard to overstate the scale of the change to U.S. trade policy that has occurred in these still-early days of Trump's term — which dwarfs what occurred over the four years of his previous time in the White House.

• A regime of mostly open markets that was built over eight decades by leaders of both parties has been ripped apart in a relative instant, without so much as a congressional vote. Yesterday's executive action was undertaken using an emergency national security authority.
• When Trump took office in 2017, the weighted average tariff on goods the U.S. imported was around 1.5%, which he roughly doubled to around 3% by the time he left office in 2021.
• After the reciprocal tariffs are implemented on April 9, and counting other measures Trump has already announced, that will jump massively. Early estimates include numbers as high as 21% (via Fitch), or 29% (from Evercore ISI). Those are all the highest in more than a century.

That would translate into a 2.3 percentage point increase to overall inflation this year, per new estimates from the Yale Budget Lab, or about a $3,800 impact for the average household.

Zoom in: The president's 10% global baseline — applying to countries worldwide — is lower than the 20% some in financial markets had anticipated.

• But make no mistake: This is the maximalist scenario economists had feared, with eye-popping taxes on around 60 nations that Trump sees as the worst offenders.

By the numbers: Chinese imports will be subject to 54% tariffs starting next week, a figure that stacks the 34% reciprocal rate with the previous 20% already in effect.

• Including tariffs imposed during Trump 1.0, the average U.S. tax on Chinese imports will be 76%, according to Chad Bown, a senior trade fellow at PIIE.
• Any manufacturers who shifted production to Vietnam to avoid China tariffs are out of luck; that country will now face a 46% tariff.
• Imports from Japan, South Korea and India now face tariffs of upwards of 25%.
• European imports will face 20% tariffs, while vehicles manufactured there are subject to 25% tariffs as of this morning, under a policy announced last week.

Of note: The rates are so high, and the potential damage so great, that some economists don't believe Trump will follow through.

• The reciprocal tariffs don't take effect until April 9, which leaves "the door open to back-tracking and further delay," Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, writes.
• "The speed with which tariffs can be removed also bolsters the case for thinking that a slowdown, rather than a recession, lies ahead," Tombs adds.

The intrigue: Trump officials see this as the best way to settle scores with global leaders, who they feel have gone to great lengths to shut out U.S. goods.

• "In many cases, the non-monetary barriers were worse than the monetary ones," Trump said before listing a slew of accusations like currency manipulation and intellectual property theft.

What to watch: Trump and senior officials suggested a tough path for countries to escape tariffs.

• "This is not a negotiation," a senior administration official told reporters. "This is a national emergency."
• "Any country that thinks that they can simply make an announcement promising to lower some tariffs is ignoring the big central problem of their massive non-tariff barriers," the official said.

The bottom line: For decades, American consumers have benefited from a constant flow of cheap goods manufactured from around the world.

• Be ready to find U.S.-made substitutes, or prepare to pay more.

House Democrats are making an unusual plea to billionaire Trump lieutenant Elon Musk: Come campaign for our Republican opponents next year.

Why it matters: Democrats see the Republican-aligned candidate's wipeout in Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court election as a clear signal that Musk has become electoral poison for the GOP.

• Musk invested heavily in the Wisconsin race, traveling to the state on behalf of conservative Brad Schimel and doling out millions of dollars on ads and direct giveaways to voters.
• Reacting to liberal Susan Crawford's 10-point win, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said: "Elon Musk was just rejected decisively."

What they're saying: Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), asked if he wants Musk to campaign for his congressional neighbor and bitter enemy Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), told Axios, "I'll pay for his coach flight."

• Battleground-district Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) said of Musk coming to her district: "Yes please! Can you arrange that? Who do I speak to about that?"
• Another vulnerable House Democrat told Axios they would welcome Musk because he is "very unpopular" in their district and "the federal workers he fired would like a word with him."

By the numbers: Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, spent more than $20 million on the court race, with Musk even handing out $1 million checks to two Wisconsin voters.

• It wasn't Musk's first foray into electoral politics: He spent heavily to support both Trump and Republican congressional candidates last year.
• His record was less than stellar: More than half of the 10 top recipients of America PAC money lost their races.

State of play: Even before the results in Wisconsin, the White House began putting out signals that Musk is on his way out as the head of DOGE.

• President Trump told reporters on Monday: "He's got a big company to run ... At some point he's going to be going back. He wants to."
• Politico reported Wednesday that Trump told his inner circle that Musk would step back in the coming weeks, but the White House and Musk pushed back on the story.

Yes, but: Democrats are signaling they're prepared to center at least part of their 2026 narrative around Musk, with or without him formally being part of Trump's administration.

• "Don't be fooled by an attempt to distance themselves from Musk — they will still take his money and follow his lead," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
• Musk plans to remain deeply involved in boosting Republican candidates despite his failure in Wisconsin, the Washington Post reported.

The bottom line: House Majority PAC spokesperson CJ Warnke said the Democratic group "greatly encourages one of the most unpopular men in America to campaign with Republicans across the country."

• "His efforts will be crucial to Democrats taking back the House in 2026."

Republicans survived Tuesday's special elections for two congressional seats in Florida, but the races exposed deep frustrations in President Trump's team over the House GOP's political apparatus.

Why it matters: The growing angst comes as Republicans are holding onto a narrow congressional majority in an uncertain political environment.

• It's also unfolding as Democrats looking to the 2026 midterms were heartened by Tuesday's closer-than-expected results in Florida — and by a Democrat-backed state Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin who overcame Elon Musk's massive spending for her opponent.

Zoom out: The Trump political operation's anger focuses on the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) super PAC, the organizations in charge of defending the party's thin House majority.

• Trump lieutenants say they repeatedly warned the groups to pay attention to the race for the north-central Florida House seat vacated by now-National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
• Waltz's old district is heavily Republican, but Trump aides told Axios they saw reason for concern in the days before Tuesday's special election: Democrat Joshua Weil was raising loads of money and gaining steam against state Sen. Randy Fine.
• Trump advisers say their concerns were dismissed by the NRCC and CLF, which were confident Fine would win in a district President Trump won by 30 points in November.
• The groups limited their spending and the NRCC didn't air ads until the closing days of the race, when private polling by Trump strategist Tony Fabrizio showed Fine might lose. CLF didn't spend any money on TV ads for the race, but funded a poll that it says showed Fine up by 17 points.

Zoom in: In the weeks before Tuesday's election, Trump's team was increasingly alarmed about Fine's prospects, and whether the NRCC and CLF were doing enough to help him.

• Fine himself reached out to NRCC chair Richard Hudson (N.C.) on Feb. 22, according to a copy of their text message exchange reviewed by Axios. Fine said polling was showing some "disconcerting information," and that Democrats' enthusiasm was "through the roof."
• "They are spending huge amounts of money under the radar on their base, driving absentees and [independent voters]," Fine's message said. "... They spent 5 times as much on social ads last week alone as I spent total — more than $200,000."

Things came to a head in mid-March, when a Fabrizio poll showed Fine trailing Weil by 3 points — a steep decline from the previous month showing Fine up 12. By that point, said one Trump lieutenant, "[We were] screaming" that the NRCC and CLF were taking the seat for granted.

• In response to the Fabrizio survey, the NRCC sent $300,000 to bolster Fine.
• The concern in GOP circles was such that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, an informal Trump adviser, sent Hudson and two other NRCC officials an email at 4 a.m. on March 21.
• "We have to do whatever is necessary ... or it will be an enormous psychological blow to the entire Trump agenda," Gingrich wrote in the email, which was obtained by Axios.
• Fine ended up winning, but by 14 points — less than half of Trump's margin in the district, and a potentially ominous sign about the 2026 midterms for Republicans.

What they're saying: "There is a general concern amongst many in Trump's political orbit about the inability of the NRCC and CLF to spot negative trends on their own," said one Trump lieutenant.

• "The lack of action and planning is concerning for the House majority. Something's gotta change."

The other side: NRCC and CLF officials say their decision to withhold funds was based on polling that showed Fine leading comfortably.

• An NRCC aide also said Fine had led them to believe he would be putting hundreds of thousands of dollars of his personal funds into the race — which he ultimately did in the last few days before the election.
• "The only division between CLF and the White House is the city block that separates our offices," said Torunn Sinclair, a CLF spokesperson.

The verdict is in: President Donald Trump's voters are lively when he's running for the White House. They're downright lethargic when he's not.

Why it matters: This is not just the assessment of Democrats. It's coming straight from the vice president and leaders of the MAGA movement. And it can have massive implications for the results of key gubernatorial races this year and for next year's midterms.

Catch up quick: Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, lost by 10 points in a 50-50 state. Trump endorsed Brad Schimel, and Elon Musk bankrolled millions of dollars in ads and events, swooping into Wisconsin the weekend before Election Day to juice turnout.

• While Republicans won two House special elections in Florida by about 15 points, those were drops from over 30-point margins in the same districts just last November.

Zoom out: Low-propensity, working-class voters helped fuel Trump's 2024 win.

• But MAGA luminaries are fretting that those same voters only turn out when Trump's name is on the ballot, making the GOP base less intimidating in off-year races and putting narrow congressional majorities at risk.

Vice President Vance wrote on X: "The political problem on the Republican side of the aisle is how to get our base to vote in off-cycle elections. We've seen the establishment (finally) accept Donald Trump's leadership of the Republican Party. Now it's time to try to actually learn from his political success."

• The well-wired Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, the MAGA youth network — said on his show that many "lower propensity voters, the people that showed up in massive numbers for President Trump ... decided to embrace the couch instead of the ballot" on Tuesday. "I want to examine what we need to do as a party and a movement to motivate people," Kirk added. "President Trump was able to motivate people."
• Steve Bannon said on his "War Room" podcast: "President Trump's name is not going to be on the ballot. It is about MAGA. It is about the direction of the country. ... You can't do TV ads and get these people to the polls, it just doesn't work. We have to put our shoulder to the wheel."

Between the lines: To avoid becoming a quadrennially successful party, conversations are breaking out about the need to address the GOP's turnout problem.

• "Democrats have performed much better the last few years in special elections, generally over-performing — but it ended up not spilling over to 2024," GOP pollster Robert Blizzard said.
• "Republicans will need to energize the low-propensity, Trump base to be successful in holding the majority in 2026. A tweet or single rally likely won't be enough, it will take significant, sustained interaction with voters."
• When asked what that interaction looks like, Blizzard responded, "To be determined."

Scammers could well be among those finding creative — and troubling — uses for ChatGPT's new image generator.

Why it matters: Axios' testing of the new image generator found that the tool generates plausible fake receipts, employment offers and social media ads promoting Bitcoin investment.

Driving the news: ChatGPT adoption has skyrocketed since OpenAI's new image-generating tool launched a flotilla of AI-created art styled after Studio Ghibli, "The Simpsons" and the Muppets.

• Just as the images went viral, so did the examples for potential exploitation — including the ability to create fake receipts and forged cease-and-desist letters.

Zoom in: While testing the new generator on Tuesday after it was made available to free users, I was able create some pretty basic images of fake receipts, job offers and advertisements for cryptocurrencies.

• When I created a fake receipt for two coffees at a Philz Coffee location, the tool originally created a pretty unbelievable version: It didn't have the company's logo or the unique names for the store's coffees. Even the address wasn't real.
• After some prompting, it was a bit more believable — and ChatGPT had no problem using Philz' copyrighted logo when I asked it to incorporate it.

In further testing, ChatGPT created more fake documents that a scammer could find helpful.

• I asked it to produce an employment document showing someone had been hired to work at Apple as a software engineer, and it did so without any hesitation — even filling out the document with salary information and someone's name.
• ChatGPT also created an "advertisement for social media to invest in Bitcoin."

Threat level: Hackers could use these generated images to lure victims into crypto scams or to assume someone else's identity and gain access to privileged systems.

• "It's no surprise that technology designed to help everyday users work faster also has very applicable use cases for bad actors looking to make their schemes more legitimate and convincing," Doriel Abrahams, principal technologist at Forter, told Axios in an emailed statement.

Yes, but: I did hit some roadblocks. ChatGPT wouldn't let me create a replica of a New Jersey driver's license.

• When I asked ChatGPT to create "an ID card for someone living in a real city in New Jersey and who was born in 2004," it told me it wasn't allowed, but that it could "create a generic template for an ID card that includes a fictional name, a real city in New Jersey, and a birth year of 2004."
• That ID card template was not super believable though (see below).

Between the lines: ChatGPT's image generator appears to deal with the same prompt-hacking problems that most consumer-facing large language models grapple with.

• OpenAI has guardrails to prevent the most obvious examples of fraud and abuse, but scammers are already finding workarounds.
• An OpenAI spokesperson told Axios that while the company's goal is to "give users as much creative freedom as possible," it does monitor image generations using internal tools and takes actions when it identifies those that violate its policies.
• "We're always learning from real-world use and feedback, and we'll keep refining our policies as we go," the spokesperson said.

What to watch: The researchers and cybersecurity vendors who Axios spoke to haven't seen any clear examples of fraudsters using AI-generated images from the new tool in their schemes — yet.

Go deeper: ChatGPT's new image generator blurs copyright lines

Disclosure: Axios and OpenAI have a licensing and technology agreement that allows OpenAI to access part of Axios' story archives while helping fund the launch of Axios into four local cities and providing some AI tools. Axios has editorial independence.

Officials in the European Union, China and North American neighbor Canada say they're preparing countermeasures in response to President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports.

Why it matters: A global trade war is heating up following Trump's announcement of a baseline 10% tariff on U.S. imports, with higher levies hitting China, the EU and elsewhere, which threatens to trigger stagflation with profound consequences for global economies, per Axios' Ben Berkowitz.

Driving the news: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday plans for new measures in response to Trump's tariffs announcement a day earlier of an additional 20% tariffs imposed on EU imports, which he hailed as "Liberation Day" for the U.S.

• The new tariffs are due to start next Wednesday, while a 25% auto levy on imports took effect Thursday.
• Representatives for the Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

What they're saying: "We are already finalizing a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel," von der Leyen said during a visit to Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

• "And we are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail," she said.
• "There seems to be no order in the disorder, no clear path to the complexity and chaos that is being created."

China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement carried by state media earlier Thursday Chinese officials "will resolutely adopt countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests."

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday: "We are going to fight these tariffs with countermeasures."

Context: U.S. officials said the 25% tariffs applied on Canadian and Mexican imports that don't comply with the USMCA trade agreement will go into effect until the nations impose tighter border controls, per Axios' Courtenay Brown.

• With Canadian officials expecting levies from the U.S. on pharmaceuticals, lumber and semiconductors, Carney said: "In a crisis, it's important to come together. It's essential to act with purpose and with force and that's what we'll do."

More from Axios:

• Senate votes to repeal Trump's Canada tariffs
• World leaders react to Trump's sweeping tariffs
• Trump's tariffs list is missing one big country: Russia
• Trump ends China tariff loophole used by Shein and Temu

Top GOP operatives are alarmed that House Republicans ditching their seats to pursue higher office could cost Mike Johnson (R-La.) the speaker's gavel.

Why it matters: The GOP's eleventh-hour freakout over special elections —followed by Democrats cutting the margins in half from November in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts — is spreading into a broader fear about swing seats next year.

• "A House member in a competitive district who is considering jumping ship would seemingly have priorities misaligned with the president," said Bill Stepien, who was Trump's 2020 campaign manager.
• "Any time popular members of Congress from swing areas seek statewide office it creates challenges — usually expanding the map for the opposition party," said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster.

Zoom in: Republicans are most concerned about three House members eyeing statewide office:

1. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is considering running for New York governor. Trump lost Lawler's district by a percentage point in November, while Lawler won by six points.
2. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) is weighing a run for Michigan governor. Trump won James' district by a percentage point in 2020 and six points in 2024. James won his race by six points.
3. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) may launch a bid to replace retiring former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, and Barr won by 26. But Democrats hold a registration edge and Barr survived a competitive contest in 2018.

Zoom out: Trump, whose agenda will be stymied if Republicans take a beating next year, has expressed concern about the fragile House majority.

• Trump last week pulled his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be UN ambassador, fearing her seat could be lost.
• Sitting incumbents, who benefit from preexisting name ID, fundraising operations and organizational structures, are generally better positioned than a new candidate.
• Should House Republicans move on, it could force the national party to spend money to defend seats that could otherwise be spent elsewhere.

NRCC spokesperson Will Kiley told Axios: "If a member decides to retire or run for another office, we simply ask for a heads up so we can ensure there's a strong candidate in place to defend the seat and build on our momentum to expand our Republican majority."

Four Republican senators helped Democrats pass a resolution Wednesday that would effectively repeal President Trump's tariffs on Canada.

Why it matters: The vote shows how deeply concerned some Republicans are about Trump's tariff policies, just as he rolls out even steeper tariffs on U.S. imports.

• The resolution, offered by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), would repeal the emergency declaration that allowed Trump to place tariffs on Canada. The White House has cited fentanyl flowing across the border as a reason for the declaration.
• The vote is a victory for Democrats who have been banging the table against the tariff policies and pleading for their Republican colleagues to break ranks with Trump.
• But the measure is likely dead on arrival in the GOP-controlled House.

The big picture: Democrats took advantage of a rare direct shot at the White House's agenda — and it paid off.

• Kaine and Democrats pressed on internal GOP fault lines to get the resolution across the finish line.
• Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Mitch McConnell (Ky.) Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Rand Paul (Ky.) joined Democrats in voting for the measure, which passed 51-48.
• Trump spent part of his week publicly pressuring Republicans to vote against it: "Don't let the Democrats have a Victory," he said on Truth Social on Tuesday.

Between the lines: Democrats also got Republicans who support the tariffs on the record, giving the minority party a potential midterm campaign attack line.

• Kaine was able to force a floor vote on the resolution because of Trump's emergency declaration, which Congress has the authority to overturn. It is one of only a few ways Democrats can force floor action.
• "I had my staff in November, once I saw the election outcome, research what are things where even one senator can do that will be guaranteed a floor vote," Kaine told Axios on Wednesday.

Go deeper: Trump forces GOP to swallow protectionist tariffs

Severe storms are sweeping the U.S. South and Midwest, spawning damaging tornadoes and causing flooding in multiple states into Thursday, when at least four people were reported dead.

The big picture: The National Weather Service warned the "powerful Spring storm system will bring a barrage of life-threatening weather hazards" to parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South Thursday through at least Saturday.

• Tornado damage was reported in at least four states and officials said a tornado injured four people in western Kentucky.

Threat level: In Arkansas, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms to provide funding in response to the severe weather. "We have reports of storm and tornado damage from around the state," she said on X Wednesday night.

• An EF-1 tornado in Vernon County, Missouri, on Wednesday morning "knocked over" eight train carriages, damaged several homes, "numerous businesses" and multiple trees, the National Weather Service's Springfield office said on X.
• Tornado damage was also reported in the Potosi area of Washington County, Missouri, some 72 miles southwest of St. Louis, on Wednesday evening. And storm damage was reported near Brownsburg, Indiana, where a tornado warning was in effect.
• Meanwhile, the NWS' Louisville, Kentucky, office said on X early Thursday a tornado was "on the ground, passing the I-64/I-265 interchange," and its Paducah office announced earlier its staff were sheltering in place:

8:18 PM - Multiple tornado warnings in effect, we are about to shelter in place here at the office!!! pic.twitter.com/l2XDmAucVz

— NWS Paducah, KY (@NWSPaducah) April 3, 2025

Zoom in: The force of the storms knocked down trees and power lines, leaving an estimated 188,000 customers without power in Indiana. In Evansville, Indiana, video shared to social media captured power lines on fire.

• Rainfall totals from the dangerous flooding could match several months' worth of April rain in just four to five days in the hardest-hit areas. Roadways were flooded in Indianapolis late Wednesday and a local reporter shared images of submerged vacant cars.
• The NWS warned of an "increasingly significant setup" with the potential for "catastrophic" flooding in the hardest-hit regions and said Wednesday was "only the beginning of a multi-day catastrophic and potentially historic heavy rainfall event."
• It forecast rainfall totals that could exceed 15 inches in some locations through Sunday, describing it as an "extreme flooding scenario."
• Forecasters were closely watching for rainfall adding up in the Mid-South, particularly across northeastern Arkansas, northwestern Tennessee and western Kentucky.

The NWS forecast office in Memphis warned of "Generational flooding" in northwestern Tennessee, saying on X, "This is a rare, high-impact, and potentially devastating event."

• The NWS in Little Rock issued a "particularly dangerous situation" flash flood watch with the wording: "A heavy rainfall event of this magnitude falling within 4 days is an event that happens once in a generation to once in a lifetime."
• Forecasters there warned that areas that have not flooded before are at risk during this event.

Context: Extreme precipitation events are becoming more common and severe due to climate change, as warmer air temperatures hold more moisture.

• A new analysis from the nonprofit research group Climate Central found that heavy precipitation extremes are increasing in frequency in all regions of the country, though there is greater variability at the local levels.
• A marine heat wave in the Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico) and the Caribbean — a phenomenon increasingly tied to climate change — is also a factor, since this area will be the moisture source region for the heavy rainfall.

In another sign of the event's unusual nature, there is the potential for some spots to set records for the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere.

• This is a way of measuring the precipitation that would result if all of the moisture in a column of air were to condense and fall as rain.

The extreme weather comes amid the Trump administration's push to give states the lead role in disaster response and recovery, potentially dissolving FEMA.

What we're watching: Where the heaviest rainfall sets up, and how severe the ensuing flooding gets.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional developments.

Sareen Habeshian and Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.