Under Trump 2.0, everything the cybersecurity industry knew about D.C. is up for debate — even who is considered an adversarial nation.

Why it matters: For decades, U.S. presidents of both parties have viewed China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as the biggest cyber threats. But that list is now in question.

The big picture: President Trump's push to reset diplomatic ties with Russia is likely to upend long-standing cybersecurity norms, with consequences that could play out for years.

Driving the news: The U.S. Cyber Command was recently ordered to pause planning offensive cyber operations against Russia, multiple outlets reported over the weekend.

• A senior DoD official declined to confirm the order but told Axios, "There is no greater priority to Secretary Hegseth than the safety of the Warfighter in all operations, including the cyber domain."
• Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly drafting a plan to ease sanctions on Russia and has sent back Russian cybercriminals in prisoner swaps.
• The administration has also reportedly reassigned dozens of FBI officials investigating foreign election interference — which Russia has repeatedly been accused of.
• The Kremlin has celebrated these actions, saying yesterday that the new American foreign policy "largely coincides" with its own.

Yes, but: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Sunday it is still prioritizing cyber threats from Russia, despite news reports suggesting otherwise.

• "There has been no change in our posture," the agency wrote on X. "Any reporting to the contrary is fake and undermines our national security."

Between the lines: Russia has long been a top cyber threat, hosting ransomware gangs, crypto money launderers, disinformation operations, and elite government hackers.

• Cyber Command has been a key tool in disrupting Russian cyber operations, from botnet takedowns to supporting Ukraine against Russian cyberattacks.

Threat level: A pause in offensive operations — even briefly — could take months to recover from, Jake Williams, a former NSA hacker and faculty member at IANS Research, told Axios.

• Planning a cyber offense requires months of lurking and learning about a target's networks to understand their weak points.
• Russian cyber operatives could decide to completely re-wire their networks while Cyber Command has its pause in effect — and cyber adversaries from other countries could obfuscate their own activities by disguising them through known Russian tactics.
• The downtime in activity could out any United States hackers who Russia was already suspicious of and monitoring closely, Williams added.

Zoom in: The order applies only to Cyber Command, not to the National Security Agency's intelligence collection, according to the reports.

• Also, separating intelligence-gathering from operations planning is near impossible in the cyber realm. Analysts often need to collect tips and open-source information before they can confidently link particular hackers to specific countries.
• "I'm not sure how to split those hairs," Williams said. "Every intelligence asset is a potential jumping off point for an offensive cyber operation."

What we're watching: Trump has made it clear that, among the four major cyber adversaries, China is his top priority.

• Many of his administration's new cyber officials are pushing for more aggressive operations against China.
• But Russian hackers were responsible for some of the cyberattacks in recent years that were most disruptive to civilian life.

In nearly three weeks as Health and Human Services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. certainly hasn't allayed concerns that he'll bring his vaccine criticism — most if not all of it unfounded — into his role as the nation's top health care official.

Why it matters: Several of Kennedy's vaccine-related actions have stoked fears that the anti-vaccine movement has gained a powerful foothold within the federal government in the midst of a worsening measles outbreak in Texas, one of the worst flu seasons in more than a decade and a circulating bird flu virus that has pandemic potential.

Driving the news: Kennedy drew attention last week during a Cabinet meeting, when he described measles outbreaks as "not unusual" after one now hitting west Texas and New Mexico resulted in the first U.S. death from the virus since 2015 and almost half of the cases seen last year.

• He then wrote in a Fox News op-ed over the weekend that vaccines protect individuals and communities from the disease but also that "all parents should consult with their healthcare providers to understand their options to get the MMR vaccine," and that "[t]he decision to vaccinate is a personal one."

The lukewarm support for measles vaccines came after a tumultuous few weeks in vaccine policy, including the Food and Drug Administration's cancellation of a March 13 meeting of a federal advisory panel to discuss the composition of next season's flu shot.

• Earlier this month, a Centers of Disease Control and Prevention advisory panel on vaccines was told that a February meeting on updating vaccination guidelines had been postponed indefinitely.
• The administration is also reviewing whether to pull $590 million in funding that Moderna received in the final days of the Biden administration to develop an mRNA vaccine for bird flu, reportedly as part of a bigger examination of spending on mRNA-based shots.
• "In isolation each of these actions have their own tolerable explanation, but taken collectively they raise the specter that RFK's trial-lawyer antipathy to any and all vaccinations continues to reign supreme," a person who worked on Kennedy's confirmation told Axios.

The big picture: Everything could still turn out fine, and the U.S. may resume business as usual when it comes to vaccines after a bumpy transition period. But it's hard to ignore the series of unusual vaccine-related decisions made over the last couple of weeks against the backdrop of Kennedy's decades of anti-vaccine activism prior to his government role.

• Kennedy said during his confirmation hearing that he wouldn't take away people's vaccines, but didn't disavow past anti-vaccine statements.
• The Trump administration clearly relishes disruptions to the status quo. It's plausible that these past few weeks are just the beginning of a brand-new, less transparent approach to vaccine policy under Kennedy's leadership — an approach that deeply alarms scientists and public health experts.

Kennedy's actions so far are "significant things, and I think it's just the tip of the iceberg," said Richard Hughes, a professor of vaccine law at George Washington University and a partner at Epstein, Becker & Green.

• "This is a man who was one of the most pivotal leaders in the anti-vaccine movement," he added. "It's not like he woke up one day and said, 'You know what, I feel different about vaccines.'"

The other side: "RFK has a mandate, under the MAHA movement, to allow for all of science to be critiqued and challenged," said David Mansdoerfer, a former senior HHS official in the first Trump administration.

• "These actions don't represent the rise of an anti-vaccine movement, they instead represent a return to science being able [to be] rigorously discussed in the public square," he said.

What they're saying: Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the FDA's advisory committee, told Axios that the cancellation or postponement of meetings, combined with recent workforce reductions at health agencies, reflects "just a gradual sort of dismembering of the public health service."

• Offit said he didn't know the reasoning behind cancellation of the meeting on flu vaccine but that HHS officials said that they are going to make the decision about the vaccine internally within the FDA.
• "The irony to me is that Robert F Kennedy Jr. talks endlessly about transparency, and now you have meetings being canceled and decisions being made behind closed doors," Offit said.

Some advocacy groups were especially alarmed at the cancellation of the flu vaccine discussions, considering the severity of the current flu season and possibly delays formulating next year's shots.

• "Cancelling essential health advisory committee meetings without promptly rescheduling them is appalling," said Public Citizen Health Research Group director Robert Steinbrook.

Officials haven't said why the advisory panel's meeting on flu vaccines was canceled, but an HHS spokesperson said the FDA will "make public its recommendations to manufacturers in time for updated vaccines to be available for the 2025-2026 influenza season."

• HHS and CDC said in identical statements that the meeting on updating vaccination guidelines for infectious diseases was postponed "to accommodate public comment in advance of the meeting," adding that advisory working groups had met as scheduled.
• Addressing the review of federal funding of mRNA vaccines, an HHS spokesperson told Axios: "While it is crucial that the U.S. Department and Health and Human Services support pandemic preparedness, four years of the Biden administration's failed oversight have made it necessary to review agreements for vaccine production."

What to watch: Kennedy has considerable discretion to put his stamp on vaccine policy, drug approvals and any number of other issues.

• Some critics expect more requests for vaccine safety data and the appointment of like-minded individuals to advisory panels that could influence coverage of drugs, services and devices.
• His leadership could also result in a shift of federal health funding to chronic disease or unproven cures, and away from infectious diseases.

Tina Reed contributed to this story.

President Trump is making good on tariff threats that will raise the stakes of his trade war with China and potentially ignite another in North America.

Why it matters: It breaks a pattern of head fakes that Wall Street and businesses large and small had hoped would continue.

• Financial market jitters and bearish anecdotes from manufacturers were not enough to stave off the levies.
• Trump will plow ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and double the import tax on Chinese goods to 20%, with few hints of how long the measures will last.

The big picture: Escalating trade tensions have already been rattling the economy, even before the new tariffs took effect. Many businesses are in paralysis, waiting to make a move until White House trade policy becomes clear.

• One manufacturer told the Institute of Supply Management: "Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it's harder to project how they will affect business."

The intrigue: A new report casts doubt on how much a tougher trade policy has actually choked off imports from China.

• There are upwards of $100 billion worth of imports "missing" from U.S. data in 2024 — a trend that has worsened since the opening salvo of the trade war in 2018, according to calculations by the New York Fed.
• The report finds that "virtually all" of the missing imports can be attributed to China.
• If the nation is more reliant on Chinese imports than previously thought, the economic blowback from new tariffs might be worse.

What they're saying: "Simply stated, the U.S. is saying it buys from China a lot less than what China says it is selling," Hunter Clark, an economic policy advisor at the New York Fed, writes in a new report.

• One clue: At least half stems from a surge of small-dollar purchases from China — including imports from popular Chinese e-commerce sites — that are not included in U.S. import data.
• These de minimis imports are not subject to tariffs and enter the U.S. "with light documentation," the report says, which contributes to the understated import data.
• About 67% of all the de minimis imports came from China between 2018 and 2021, according to estimates by Customs and Border Protection cited in the New York Fed report.

What to watch: An initial Trump order would have effectively scrapped the de minimis exemption. That has been paused indefinitely while the government develops a system to collect tariffs on these goods.

• If that exemption is nixed, the effects might be notable for consumers buying from shopping platforms like Shein or Temu.

The bottom line: Trump has implemented bigger China tariffs in recent weeks than in the entirety of his first stint in office.

• A flaw in trade measurement adds to the uncertainty of how big a shock might be ahead.

President Trump's decision to suspend all military aid to Ukraine is the latest in a string of moves that could have been plucked from Vladimir Putin's personal wishlist.

Why it matters: Trump is also considering sanctions relief for Moscow and hinting at regime change in Kyiv. The Moscow-friendly streak comes as he seeks to foster peace in Ukraine and better relations between nuclear-armed superpowers.

• But his treatment of Putin as a partner and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a foe has rung alarm bells for NATO allies and even some fellow Republicans.

Driving the news: A White House official told Axios' Barak Ravid Monday night that Trump is stopping all arms shipments to Ukraine because he's "focused on peace" and Ukraine must "be committed to that goal as well."

• Trump told reporters earlier Monday that he believes Russia wants peace, but that "maybe someone doesn't want to make a deal" — an apparent reference to Zelensky.
• "If someone doesn't want to make a deal, I think that person won't be around very long," Trump added, likely referring to MAGA's growing calls for Zelensky's resignation or new elections in Ukraine.

The Kremlin, for its part, said Sunday that the "rapidly changing" U.S. foreign policy approach "largely coincides with our vision."

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised Trump's "common sense," while other Kremlin officials reveled in Trump's steamrolling of Zelensky in the Oval Office.

Breaking it down: Trump has made at least five Moscow-friendly moves just in the last two weeks.

1. The White House asked Treasury and State to identify sanctions on Russia that could be loosened as part of the process of improving relations, Reuters reports.

• Trump didn't deny that Monday, telling reporters: "We want to make deals with everybody."

2. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered U.S. Cyber Command to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia.

• The suspension is intended to last as long as negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war play out, officials told the Washington Post.

3. Trump has called for elections in Ukraine, and he and his allies suggested after the Oval Office spat that Zelensky might need to go.

• Regime change in Kyiv was one of Putin's original objectives for invading. It remains unlikely he'll be able to install a Kremlin stooge any time soon.
• Still, Trump's comments denouncing Zelensky — and his moves to freeze him out after the meeting — have weakened the position of a leader the Kremlin has long sought to discredit internationally.
• Reality check: Ukraine has been under martial law since the invasion began, and its constitution does not allow for elections in such a scenario.

4. The U.S. voted with Russia and 16 other mostly authoritarian countries to oppose a UN resolution last week that condemned Russia's "aggression" in Ukraine.

• The Biden administration repeatedly used such votes to depict Russia as a pariah state. This time, the U.S. voted with Moscow and against nearly all its Western allies.

5. Suspending weapons shipments — which the Trump administration had already dramatically slowed — is the latest dramatic step.

• Billions of dollars of equipment committed under Biden were in different stages along the delivery pipeline, Axios' Sareen Habeshian reports.
• Zelensky told NBC's "Meet the Press" last month that Ukraine had only a "low chance to survive" without U.S. military support.
• Trump and his team have also discussed whether to limit U.S. intelligence cooperation with Ukraine.

The big picture: Trump's friendliness toward Putin isn't a new phenomenon. Investigations into the president's ties to Russia dogged much of his first term, and pursuing revenge for the "Russia hoax" has become core to MAGA's political identity.

• Trump pushed back Monday on the notion that his foreign policy matches the Kremlin's, pointing to the fact that Russia's past invasions — Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and all of Ukraine in 2022 — took place while he was out of his office.
• "Under President Trump they got nothing, and under President Biden they tried to get the whole thing. If I didn't get in here they would have gotten the whole thing," Trump argued.
• The White House, Pentagon, State Department and Treasury all declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

Between the lines: Dangling sanctions relief, a cyber truce and international reintegration could all give Trump leverage over Putin, particularly at a time when he's trying to convince him to make peace.

• The honeymoon may not last, particularly as Trump has himself conceded he may be wrong in thinking Putin truly wants a peace deal.
• So far, though, he's offered nearly all carrots and no sticks for Putin — in sharp contrast to Zelensky.
• In part, that reflects Trump's preference for dealing superpower-to-superpower, in a world dictated by hard power.

Go deeper: Trump's new world order

Democratic lawmakers are discussing a litany of options to protest at President Trump's speech to Congress on Tuesday, including through outright disruption, a half dozen House Democrats told Axios.

Why it matters: Some of these tactics go beyond their leaders' recommendation that members bring guests hurt by Trump and DOGE. This sets up a potential clash between party traditionalists and its more combative anti-Trump wing.

• "The part that we all agree on is that this is not business as usual and we would like to find a way — productively — to express our outrage," one House Democrat told Axios.
• There is widespread disagreement among Democrats, both inside and outside of Congress, over what would be the most appropriate and effective form of demonstration.

What we're hearing: Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios.

• Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.

A wide array of props — including noisemakers — has also been floated:

• Signs with anti-Trump or anti-DOGE messages — just as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech last year that said "war criminal."
• Eggs or empty egg cartons to highlight how inflation is driving up the price of eggs.
• Pocket constitutions to make the case that Trump has been violating the Constitution by shutting down congressionally authorized agencies.
• Hand clappers, red cards and various other props have also been discussed, multiple sources said.

The intrigue: In closed-door meetings and on the House floor Monday night, lawmakers were specifically discouraged from using props, two House Democrats told Axios.

• These tactics are also a source of considerable internal debate among House Democratic rank-and-file — in large part based on what they've heard back in their districts.
• "There are definitely a lot of constituents that really want Democrats to disrupt and there are ... constituents who feel like that just plays into his hands," one House Democrat told Axios.

Zoom out: Disruptions during joint session speeches used to provoke outrage, but have become increasingly common in recent years.

• Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-S.C.) outburst at former President Obama — ''you lie," he shouted — was a shocking event in 2009.
• Former President Biden was persistently heckled by Republicans during multiple State of the Union addresses.
• Then there was the aforementioned disruption of Netanyahu's speech by Tlaib.

Zoom in: Some groups of Democrats plan to mount more traditional protests through the use of color coordination in their wardrobe choices.

• Pink: The Democratic Women's Caucus wants all their members to wear pink in a unified display of defiance to a president many of them despise.
• Black: Female members of the Congressional Black Caucus have separately discussed donning black to more accurately capture the party's somber mood.
• Blue and yellow: Ukraine Caucus co-chair Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) will distribute ties and scarves with the colors of Ukraine's flag to signal support for President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Others plan to sit stone-faced and refuse to clap during the entire speech, another time-honored tactic for opposition party members to silently protest the president.

What they're saying: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) wrote in a letter to House Democrats that he and other leaders plan to attend the speech to "make clear to the nation that there is a strong opposition party ready, willing and able to serve as a check and balance."

• Jeffries also said leadership understands if some members skip the speech — as several have said they plan to do — but urged a "strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber."
• House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told Axios leadership is telling members to "keep the focus on the health and safety and the economic wellbeing of our constituents."

The bottom line: "Whether we are wearing pink, or black, or yellow and blue, we are all conveying our displeasure with this administration," said. Rep. Stacey Plaskett (D-V.I.).

• "What's more important is our work together and the pressure for three Republicans to do the right thing for everyone," she said.

President Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada's and Mexico's exports to the U.S. and new levies on China took effect early Tuesday.

Why it matters: Trump's confirmation of the tariffs sent markets sliding Monday amid fears it could raise prices for U.S. customers, see inflation soar and start a trade war — and Canada and China took retaliatory action against U.S. products as tariffs targeting their countries took effect.

• After Chinese exports were hit with an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump had imposed earlier this year, officials in Beijing announced 15% tariffs on some U.S. agriculture imports, including chicken, corn, cotton and wheat.
• Canada, which is also facing 10% tariffs on energy products, announced a raft of countermeasures.

Zoom in: Canadian Prime Minister Justin said in a statement Monday Canadian officials would move to impose 25% tariffs against "$155 billion of American goods" at 12:01am Tuesday, when he noted Trump's "unjustified" tariffs were due to take effect.

• Canada would start with tariffs on "$30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days' time," Trudeau said.
• "Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn, and should U.S. tariffs not cease, we are in active and ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures," Trudeau added.
• "Because of the tariffs imposed by the U.S., Americans will pay more for groceries, gas, and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs. Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship."

State of play: Trump last month struck a deal on border security with Canadian and Mexican officials and paused for 30 days his threat to impose on the countries his planned tariffs, but the president made clear on Monday no progress had been made during negotiations.

• Trump was proceeding with implementing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico "to combat the extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, including our public health posed by unchecked drug trafficking," per a White House statement early Tuesday.
• The White House said Trump gave Canadian and Mexican officials "ample opportunity to curb the dangerous cartel activity and influx of lethal drugs flowing into our country," but "they have failed to adequately address the situation."

What they're saying: Trudeau said in his statement while less than 1% of the fentanyl intercepted at the U.S. border comes from Canada, "we have worked relentlessly to address this scourge that affects Canadians and Americans alike."

• He pointed to Canada implementing a $1.3 billion border plan "with new choppers, boots on the ground," increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl and a Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force on organized crime was being established.
• Trudeau said such efforts, along with appointing a Fentanyl Czar, listing transnational criminal cartels as terrorist organizations and working in partnership with the U.S. on the issue, had resulted in a 97% drop in fentanyl seizures from Canada between December and January to "a near-zero low of 0.03 pounds seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection."
• There was no immediate response from Mexican officials to the tariffs, but President Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters on Monday she had a plan for if they were to take effect and would provide details on Tuesday.
• Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Go deeper: Trump tariffs will cause price hikes on these everyday goods

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump decided to pause and review all military aid to Ukraine days after the public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, two White House officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The decision that was taken after a meeting on Monday between Trump and his senior adviser would increase pressure on Zelensky and create more difficulties for Ukraine's military.

What they're saying: "President Trump has been clear that he is focused on peace," one White House official said.

• "We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution."

Zoom out: The previous administration sent some $65.9 billion in military assistance to the country since Russia's invasion in February 2022, per the State Department.

• Trump had not announced any additional aid since taking office.
• Bloomberg first reported on Trump's aid decision.

Go deeper: What military aid the U.S. is still providing Ukraine under Trump

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

The Senate confirmed Linda McMahon on Monday to serve as head of the Education Department — an entity President Trump has targeted for elimination,

Why it matters: Trump's proposals to dismantle the Department of Education could have dramatic implications for public schools that rely on federal funds to fill gaps in state and local support. Experts point to a recipe for chaos as critical government programs are reorganized.

• The vote was 51-45.
• Trump told reporters last month he hopes McMahon will "put herself out of a job."

The big picture: McMahon, a former World Wrestling Entertainment executive, headed the Small Business Administration during Trump's first term and is a longtime Trump ally (and megadonor).

• In advance of her confirmation, the Education Department offered a buyout of up to $25,000 to most of its employees, Politico reported, citing an email sent Friday to staffers.

Reality check: Eliminating the Department of Education, which has been a punching bag for the GOP for decades, would require congressional action.

• But that's not to say the administration won't try to dismantle it before urging lawmakers to deliver the final blow.
• The Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has begun dissecting the agency from the inside, claiming last month that the team had terminated some $881 million in contracts deemed wasteful.

Zoom out: McMahon will be tasked with implementing several education-related executive orders Trump has signed, including one that threatens to slash funding for K-12 schools that "indoctrinate" students by teaching about race and gender.

The other side: NAACP President Derrick Johnson said McMahon's confirmation "brings us one step closer to losing our Department of Education—the agency that not only funds public schools, but advocates for our teachers and enforces essential civil rights laws.

• "Today marks another dark day in America—not just for our government but for our kids," Johnson said.

Go deeper: Trump taps major donors, eldest sons to lead transition team

Vice President JD Vance said Monday the Trump administration is working with Russia to end its war on Ukraine and that the "door is open" for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he's "willing to seriously talk peace."

Why it matters: In his first interview since Friday's heated White House exchange that Vance and President Trump had with Zelensky, the vice president on Fox News criticized Ukraine's leader and argued that it's in Kyiv's best interests to sign a minerals deal with the U.S.

Driving the news: "If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that [Russian leader] Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine," Vance said on Fox News' "Hannity."

• "That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years."

Zoom in: During the interview, Vance told Fox News host Sean Hannity that Zelensky had "showed a clear unwillingness to engage in the peace process" that Trump has said is "the policy of the American people and of their president."

• He accused Zelensky of showing "a certain sense of entitlement" at the Oval Office.

Zoom out: Zelensky said on X Sunday he's "ready to sign" a minerals deal with the the U.S., but a "ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine."

• The Ukrainian president has said security guarantees are needed due to Moscow's breach of a ceasefire agreement after its annexation of Crimea in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
• Meanwhile, officials in the U.S. and France are working on a plan for a European peacekeeping force, an idea that Axios' Barak Ravid reports Trump has endorsed.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

The Trump administration has informed NOAA that two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.

• It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather data and forecasts across the U.S. and abroad.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

• Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
• The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
• The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

The lease cancellation was first reported by The Verge. The National Weather Service didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

• The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
• In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.
• It would also require new congressional appropriations to get that done.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all the properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

• Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, now has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
• That facility in Norman, Okla. is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

The DOGE website has a section on canceled or modified government real estate properties. It shows several NOAA facilities, though not the exact building in College Park as of Monday.

• In addition to the National Weather Service-related properties, numerous buildings on the so-called "wet side" of NOAA are on the list the agency received, including the National Marine Fisheries Service.

What they're saying: Andrew Rosenberg, a former NOAA official on the agency's fisheries side, has seen the cancellation list. He likened the College Park situation to cutting the government via a "chainsaw" approach rather than more fully considered cuts.

• Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Axios he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland.
• "I am worried," he told Axios after speaking at a rally Monday outside NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Md.
• "We know they're looking through GSA," he said of DOGE. "We should be concerned and worry about all these things, which is why the sooner we shut down the efforts to illegally get rid of federal employees the better."

Van Hollen said his staff will look into the College Park facility in particular. He already has sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking answers following the NOAA cuts of probationary employees last week.

• His office put the total of those layoffs to 650 out of NOAA's approximately 12,000-person workforce.

What's next: NOAA, like other government agencies, has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

Go deeper:

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

The TAKE IT DOWN Act, an online safety legislation, is gaining steam in Washington, D.C., as first lady Melania Trump expressed her support Monday.

The big picture: The bipartisan bill aims to bolster protections against the non-consensual dissemination of sexual images, including those generated through artificial intelligence and targets deepfake and revenge pornography.

Driving the news: The first lady and House Speaker Mike Johnson joined a roundtable on Capitol Hill on Monday with congressional leaders and victims of child sexual abuse material.

• At the meeting, Melania Trump spoke of the risks of an "AI-driven" world, saying, "Every young person deserves a safe online space to express themselves free without the looming threat of exploitation."

What is the TAKE IT DOWN Act?

The TAKE IT DOWN Act would require tech and social media platforms to remove CSAM and non-consensual intimate images within 48 hours of being notified by a victim, and it criminalizes posting such content, per Axios' Maria Curi.

• Under the bill, people who post such content would face penalties and prison time.
• The FTC could sue tech companies for not complying as an unfair or deceptive act or practice, Curi writes.

Who is supporting the bill?

The bill is sponsored by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and has bipartisan support including from cosponsors like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

• The Senate passed the legislation unanimously last month.

Where it stands

House leaders said Monday they're ready to pass the bill.

• House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie said an educational hearing on the bill will be held "very, very soon."
• He vowed it would be a top priority for the committee "over the next few weeks."

Go deeper: House leaders ready to pass deepfakes bill backed by Melania Trump

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee began hashing out what to do on taxes in a closed-door meeting Monday evening.

Why it matters: Don't expect the budget resolution that barely passed the House last week to stay as is. The two chambers passed very different budget resolutions.

• They will need to get on the same page to kick off the reconciliation process, which allows the Senate to get around its 60-vote filibuster.
• "We're working to put it all together in a way that makes the tax cuts permanent, prevents an increase in taxes, and deals with the key components and promises of the administration," Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Axios.

What to watch: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) huddled separately right after the Senate meeting.

• Those two will be leading the tax debate for each chamber — a fight that could drag out for months.
• There's a lot less of an appetite for raising the SALT caps in the Senate than in the House.

Zoom in: One of the biggest changes the Senate is looking at is how it counts the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, with Senate leadership pushing to adopt a current policy baseline — which makes the cost $0.

• "My understanding is that is a decision a parliamentarian is going to make," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters after the meeting.
• Some conservatives like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won't like it, though Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told Axios he is on board.
• "One point I tried to make is, I don't think that changes one iota how much money we spend," Cornyn said, adding, "I think it just demonstrates how illusory all the scoring really is."

Democratic senators are preparing to pummel three of President Trump's top State Department nominees on Tuesday, turning their confirmation hearings into a proxy war on the U.S. commitment to NATO and support for Ukraine.

Why it matters: It's the Democrats' first chance to punch back on what they saw as Trump's assault on Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday.

• Democrats — and many European leaders — were deeply dismayed by Trump's and Vice President Vance's exchange with Zelensky.
• They were dumbfounded by Trump's conciliatory words for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• It will also give senators an opportunity to ask officials for details on Trump' pause on military funding for Ukraine.

Driving the news: Matthew Whitaker, Trump's pick to be ambassador to NATO, and Michael Rigas and Christopher Landau, his nominees for the two deputy secretary of state slots, are scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday morning.

• Trump's nominees are indicating they'll fiercely defend Trump's approach and demand that European allies do more to strengthen NATO.
• "Leadership is not charity. The American people have carried the burden of global security for too long," Whitaker will say in his opening comments, according to remarks Axios obtained.
• "For decades, U.S. taxpayers have funded the lion's share of NATO's defense while too many of our allies have failed to meet even their most basic obligations."

What they're saying: "It is an open question that deserves a clear answer, whether or not this administration and its nominee to be our ambassador to NATO believe in the value of the NATO alliance," Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told Axios.

• "He has told me in a private meeting that he is supportive" of NATO, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the committee, said of Whitaker.
• "The relationship with NATO, the relationship with Ukraine, the president buddying up to dictator Putin ... all of these are big problems," said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

President Trump addresses a joint session of Congress Tuesday but it is not an official State of the Union address.

Why it matters: In Trump's first six weeks he has started a federal government overhaul, driven by DOGE, dismantled USAID and moved to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

• The address comes days after Trump's heated Oval Office meeting with Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Trump has also had a slew of executive orders, some of which have rolled back former President Biden's actions.

The big picture: The March 4 speech is the first Trump will give to Congress since returning to the White House.

• In late January, House Speaker Mike Johnson invited Trump via a letter to deliver the joint address to Congress.
• "TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG. I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!," Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday.

What time does Trump address Congress Tuesday?

Zoom in: Trump is scheduled to speak at 9pm ET on Tuesday, which is 6pm PT.

Why is Trump's address to Congress not a State of the Union?

State of play: When a president addresses a joint session of Congress, it is often referred to as a State of the Union speech.

• But for a president's first year in office, it's not called a State of the Union address even though the speech serves the same purpose.

Where is the Trump address to Congress held?

The speech is held in the chamber of the House of Representatives at the Capitol in Washington, D.C.

How to watch Trump's speech on TV or streaming

All major news networks are broadcasting the address, including CNN, PBS, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, Fox News, NewsNation and C-SPAN.

• Most networks start coverage starts hours before the address and will continue broadcasting analysis of the speech for hours after.

How long will Trump's speech be?

Flashback: Trump's 2017 speech was one hour long.

• The average length of his State of Union addresses held in 2018 through 2020 was one hour and 20 minutes, according to the American Presidency Project.

Between the lines: Not calling newly inaugurated presidents' early speeches to Congress "State of the Union addresses" has been going on for more than 40 years, according to the American Presidency Project.

• It started with Ronald Regan's 1981 address to Congress.

Who is giving Democrats' response to Trump's speech?

Zoom out: Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is slated to give the Democratic response to Trump's address Tuesday.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have been telling members to bring guests to the address who have been negatively impacted by the administration.

More from Axios:

• Hegseth suspends offensive cyber operations against Russia: reports
• Time is running out to get a Real ID ahead of May 7 deadline
• Trump says he's instructing Treasury to "stop producing new pennies"

A Democratic boycott is developing ahead of President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Democratic leaders have asked lawmakers to show up to the speech with people affected by DOGE and Trump's federal funding freeze.

• Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), one of the most senior Democrats in the Senate, will not attend Trump's speech on Tuesday, Axios has learned
• Neither will Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who will instead host an online town hall.

The big picture: Democrats on Capitol Hill are split on how to best handle Trump's first big address to Congress of his second term.

• They have a guest list that they hope will showcase what they argue are the harms of Trump's first month in office.
• But other Democrats told us last week that they saw no reason to participate in the speech.

Go deeper: Fuming Democrats struggle with Trump speech strategy

President Trump confirmed Monday that his long-promised tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The announcement sent financial markets tumbling in anticipation of a potential trade war between the U.S. and its top trading partners.

State of play: Canada and Mexico will see 25% tariffs on goods exported into the U.S., while a 10% tariff will be levied on Chinese exports.

• The latter comes on top of the 10% tariff Trump already imposed on Chinese exports earlier this year.
• Trump's decision to pull the trigger on tariffs on Canada and Mexico came after he agreed early last month to delay the planned tariffs for a month.

The big picture: The tariffs will see Trump make good on his campaign pledge to institute sweeping tariffs on America's trade partners.

• Tariffs function like an additional tax on goods and are often passed onto consumers. Some retailers have already warned that they could be forced to raise prices.
• Exactly how much of the tariffs' costs are passed onto consumers remains to be seen, but experts predict that by next year the tariffs will reduce Americans' after-tax income by 1%.
• The tariffs are expected to hit working-class Americans especially hard.

Here are the goods that will be hit hard by Trump's tariffs:

Cars

Trump's tariffs threaten to decimate the U.S. auto industry, which relies on Canada and Mexico to assemble vehicles.

• Due to the complicated auto industry supply chains criss-crossing North America, a single car component could cross the U.S. border six to eight times before final assembly — with a 25% tariff applicable each time.
• This could make U.S.-made vehicles so expensive that buying a finished car from Europe, Japan, or Korea, could be significantly cheaper — even if tariffs are levied on those vehicles.

Energy

The U.S. relies on Mexico and Canada for critical energy exports that could make everyday activities — like cooking and heating their homes — more expensive for everyday Americans.

• Oil and gas are some of the U.S.' top imports from Mexico, while top imports from Canada are crude oil, petroleum gas and coal.
• In fact, the U.S.' reliance on Canada for crude oil has been increasing for decades.

Electronics

Computers and other electronics are expected to see persistent price increases due to the tariffs.

• The U.S. imports a significant portion of its electronics from China, including smartphones and computers.

Household goods

The U.S. is the largest market for Chinese exports, buying about 15% of everything China sends out.

• This encompasses a wide array of everyday household goods, from machinery, toys, furniture, sporting goods, footwear, clothing and textiles.

Food and beverages

The U.S. imports large amounts of food and beverage products from Canada and Mexico.

• In 2023, 63% of U.S. vegetable imports came from Mexico. The nation also supplied 43% of the United States' fruit and nut imports, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
• About 81% of U.S. beer imports came from Mexico in 2023.
• Canada is another major source of food for the U.S. and in 2023, almost 64% of U.S. agricultural imports from Canada consisted of "meat and other animal products, grains and feeds, and oilseeds and oilseed products," per the USDA.

Go deeper:

• A timeline of Trump's tariff proposals
• What Trump's tariffs mean for your wallet

The U.S. pledged more than $65 billion in military assistance to Ukraine under the Biden administration, but President Trump decided Monday to pull the plug, at least temporarily.

The big picture: Following a contentious televised meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump debated his next steps in the crisis with Ukraine, and indicated a possible suspension of U.S. military aid.

• The decision to pause and review all military aid, which comes as Trump pushes for peace talks, will be detrimental to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.
• While Trump has not authorized a new assistance package for Ukraine, billions of dollars of equipment committed under Biden remains in different stages along the delivery pipeline, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Zoom in: The CSIS report found that it typically takes about eight months from the announcement of an arms package to the completion of the delivery.

• That suggests much of what Biden promised in his last year in office has likely not yet been delivered — thought the Pentagon did attempt to surge deliveries in Biden's final weeks.
• It takes even longer — often several years — for weapons coming from U.S. defense contractors, rather than existing stockpiles, to be delivered.
• It would therefore take years to deliver what the U.S. has already promised.

Between the lines: With no aid announced since Trump took office, the deliveries to Ukraine from the U.S. have slowed, and remaining shipments of ammunition and equipment authorized under Biden could be canceled soon, a Trump administration official told the New York Times Friday.

• The administration does have the authority to stop the shipments, despite promises made by the previous administration, per CSIS.
• "More difficult would be stopping shipments of newly produced weapons from contracts Ukraine signed with the defense industry, though with funds provided by the United States," per the think tank, because legally those belong to Ukraine.
• However, the U.S. might be able to divert shipments to its own forces under Title I of the Defense Production Act or other emergency authorities.

By the numbers: As of January 20, the U.S. had dolled out $65.9 billion in military assistance to the country since Russia's invasion in February 2022, per the State Department.

• That includes air defense equipment, guns, ammunition, missiles, laser-guided rocket systems, air surveillance radars, helicopters, bomb launchers, hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, tanks, armored vehicles, boats and more.
• Including humanitarian and financial assistance, Congress has appropriated $174.2 billion for Ukraine since 2022.

Zoom out: Ukraine also relies on the U.S. for more than just weapons and cash.

• The Ukrainian military also relies heavily on the Starlink satellite internet system from Elon Musk's SpaceX, with some 42,000 Starlink terminals in operation across the country as of last year.
• Ukraine's military also depends on U.S. intelligence, including to target drone strikes.
• The fate of broader U.S.-Ukraine cooperation remains uncertain after the public split between Trump and Zelensky.

Go deeper: Trump to hold Ukraine meeting on next steps including possible aid freeze

Editor's note: This article and the headline were updated to reflect President Trump's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine.

President Trump's decision to cancel a major oil deal with Venezuela came amid pressure from Miami's three GOP House members who oppose enriching Nicolás Maduro's dictatorship, four sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: To get their way, the three House members suggested — but never explicitly threatened — that they would withhold votes Trump needed for the GOP budget deal that the House narrowly passed last week.

• "They're going crazy and I need their votes," Trump explained to confidants when he privately signaled he would cancel the license allowing Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S.
• Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar then voted for the budget deal, which passed 217-215.
• Eight hours later, Trump announced on Truth Social that he was canceling the oil deal.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) related some of the behind-the-scenes story to a group of Republican donors during a fundraiser Friday at the Miami-area waterfront mansion of local health insurance magnate Ivan Herrera.

• Johnson told the crowd they "should be proud" of Diaz-Balart, Gimenez and Salazar.
• "The three Crazy Cubans, as we affectionately call them," Johnson said, "stood on principle" and delivered for their community, according to two sources at the fundraiser. They said Gimenez and Diaz-Balart chuckled approvingly at the nickname along with the donors, many of whom have Cuban roots.

The big picture: In a more conventional White House, power flows through a more defined process, through "proper channels" that involve careful vetting.

• In Trump's White House, power often circulates instantly, improvisationally and unexpectedly, based on Trump's gut, his needs at the time — or on catching him with the right idea at the right time, with the right words.

This previously untold story helps explain the contradictory positions that Trump's administration sometimes appears to take.

• It also highlights Trump's hands-on involvement in salvaging the House's controversial budget plan — and his familiarity with Florida's unique politics and its international reverberations.

Zoom in: Last Tuesday, the final day of the budget talks, Johnson put Diaz-Balart on the phone with Trump so the Miamian could make his pitch against the Venezuelan oil deal. The week before, Diaz-Balart and Gimenez had met with Trump in the White House to voice their concerns, two sources said.

• During Tuesday's call, Diaz-Balart reminded Trump of his campaign promises to crack down on Maduro, two sources briefed on the call said. Diaz-Balart told Trump that Maduro's dictatorship was "thrown a lifeline" by President Biden when he relaxed sanctions, which Trump had slapped on Venezuela during his previous administration.
• "Mario never threatened their vote or offered a quid pro quo because threatening Trump is just counterproductive," said one of those sources. "They all know that."
• Diaz-Balart, Gimenez and Salazar declined to comment. A Johnson spokesperson confirmed the House members fought to end support to Maduro's government but wouldn't comment further.

Between the lines: Trump already wasn't inclined to continue the Venezuela petroleum deal, partly because Biden had struck it.

• Trump also didn't want to appear to be negotiating an oil-for-migrants deal with Maduro, a White House official and an outside adviser told Axios. The Trump administration is trying to boost deportations of Venezuelan unauthorized immigrants as well as some with pre-existing deportation protections.
• Trump's administration is stocked with Florida Republicans who are anti-Maduro: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Latin American envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
• Trump's special envoy to Venezuela, Richard Grenell, is still in talks with Maduro's regime. Grenell last month secured the release of six U.S. prisoners in Venezuela and persuaded Maduro to accept Venezuelans deported from the U.S.
• Grenell has said the U.S. doesn't want regime change in Venezuela. But other White House officials said regime change is preferred because the socialist dictator has mismanaged his country's finances, destabilizing the region by leading to the Western Hemisphere's biggest mass migration of modern times.
• "The win-win for all of us is to somehow get the dictator to give up power on a glide path of maybe two years," a Trump Latin America adviser said. "So go ahead, keep robbing your country and getting rich off socialism while everyone else gets poor. But ya gotta go."

The backstory: Chevron produces about 220,000 oil barrels daily in Venezuela, about a quarter of the country's production, according to the Miami Herald, which also reported that Palm Beach oil magnate Harry Sargeant III, was closely involved in efforts to broker a deal between Trump and Maduro.

What they're saying: Trump's decision to cancel Biden's 2022 oil deal came as a surprise to Venezuela's government and to Chevron, which under the deal was allowed to pump Venezuelan oil.

• "Chevron lobbied hard and fell hard. So did Harry," said a Republican advising the Trump White House.
• "This is just going to raise the price of oil," said another Trump Republican allied with Sargeant.
• "In reality, damage is being inflicted on the United States, its population and its companies," Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's vice president, said in a social media post criticizing Trump's decision.

Zoom out: The Cuban-American community dominates the politics of Miami-Dade County, the most populous in the state.

• Cuban Americans, including those in Congress, have found political common cause in the state with exiles who fled other countries because of leftist violence, oppression or dysfunction. Those include Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela, where Cuban intelligence services protect Maduro.
• Cuban Americans are among Trump's strongest supporters; he's frequently boasted about that.

But Trump's decision to end Temporary Protected Status for as many as 300,000 Venezuelans is deeply unpopular in Miami politics. The three Cuban-American House members oppose it, but know it's hard to change Trump's mind.

• "Helping out Maduro and Big Oil was just a bridge too far for them," said a Republican allied with the congressional members. "They're happy Trump kept his promise. At least for now."

Long-threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday, as will increased levies on China, President Trump confirmed.

Why it matters: The tariffs are expected to trigger a trade war with the three largest U.S. trading partners, one that could raise prices for American consumers on a broad range of products.

Catch up quick: Canada and Mexico will each face 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S., while Chinese exports will receive an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump already imposed earlier this year.

• The Canada and Mexico tariffs were imposed in early February but postponed for a month, pending negotiations. Trump said Monday that time was up.
• "No room left for Mexico or for Canada," Trump said in remarks at the White House.

By the numbers: Financial markets, which were already weaker on gloomy economic news tied to tariff fears, took a leg down after Trump confirmed the levies were coming.

• The S&P 500 was 2% lower in the last hour of trading, and at the lows of the day.
• The U.S. dollar surged, particularly against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Top Trump administration officials are arguing that it is misleading to include government spending in the quarterly tally of GDP.

• It sets up a clash between the administration and economists over how to calculate the broadest measure of economic activity.

The big picture: GDP statistics are calculated the way they have been for the last eight decades for good reasons — but administration officials are correct that the accounting for government spending isn't ideal.

What they're saying: "You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures."

• "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent," he said.
• "A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Elon Musk wrote on X on Friday. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."

State of play: GDP aims to capture the value of all economic output produced in a given time period within U.S. borders. The formula for that tally, which you may recall from introductory economics, is that GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports.

• So why is government spending included in that formula? Because otherwise GDP would not fully capture the value of goods and services produced.
• When the government buys a fighter jet, or builds a road, or educates a child, it reflects the production of goods and services. So if you exclude government spending from GDP, you aren't getting a full picture of U.S. output.

Zoom in: It is true, however, that government spending is counted in GDP by simply adding in the dollars spent, without any real test of how efficiently or productively the money was used.

• "If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said in the TV appearance. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."
• It's true, as Musk and Lutnick suggest, that if the government hired a bunch of people to twiddle their thumbs all day, it would show up as higher GDP while not making anyone better off, save perhaps the thumb-twiddlers.

Of note: The Bureau of Economic Analysis — which Lutnick now oversees — acknowledges these limitations.

• "Difficult conceptual and practical problems arise in measuring the output of governments, primarily because most of this output is not sold in the marketplace," reads the bureau's handbook for GDP and related data.
• "If possible, it would be preferable to measure actual changes in the quantity or volume of the services provided, thus allowing for changes in productivity," the document notes.

Zoom out: More conceptually, it's not the job of economic statistics to make value judgments on what individuals, businesses or governments do with their money. It's just trying to get the math right.

• You might not agree that a given government expenditure was worthwhile, but that's true of every line of GDP.

For example, if somebody orders an absurdly priced $2,000 bottle of wine at a restaurant, that counts on line 20 of the GDP report as personal consumption expenditures on food services and accommodations.

• If a movie studio spends $100 million to make a terrible movie, that shows up on line 38 of the report, as fixed investment in entertainment, literary, and artistic originals.

Lutnick suggested the GDP statistics lack transparency about how government spending is incorporated.

• In fact, the data releases make crystal clear how much government contributes to overall GDP — and data-watchers can, and regularly do, exclude government for purposes of analyzing economic trends.

By the numbers: In Q4 of last year, overall U.S. output was an annualized $29.7 trillion, of which $1.9 trillion was federal government consumption and investment spending, and another $3.2 trillion state and local governments.

• Measures of activity that exclude government spending can give a better sense of the underlying trend in the economy than the headline GDP number.
• We're partial, for example, to real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which rose at a 5.4% rate in Q4. You can find it in Table 1, line 41 of the report.

The intrigue: Interestingly, the federal government's share of GDP has been relatively low of late. It was 6.4% last year, roughly the same as during the first Trump administration and well below Cold War levels. It peaked at 18% in 1953.

• Keep in mind that while federal spending on purchases and employee salaries count in these tabulations, transfer payments don't.
• So when the government sends out Social Security checks each month, that expenditure does not count toward GDP but does show up as personal consumption expenditures once recipients spend the money.

The bottom line: There are flaws and limitations in how government GDP statistics account for government spending.

• But they are well-known, transparent and the kinds of things economy-watchers can adjust for as they wish.