Long-threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday, as will increased levies on China, President Trump confirmed.

Why it matters: The tariffs are expected to trigger a trade war with the three largest U.S. trading partners, one that could raise prices for American consumers on a broad range of products.

Catch up quick: Canada and Mexico will each face 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S., while Chinese exports will receive an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump already imposed earlier this year.

• The Canada and Mexico tariffs were imposed in early February but postponed for a month, pending negotiations. Trump said Monday that time was up.
• "No room left for Mexico or for Canada," Trump said in remarks at the White House.

By the numbers: Financial markets, which were already weaker on gloomy economic news tied to tariff fears, took a leg down after Trump confirmed the levies were coming.

• The S&P 500 was 2% lower in the last hour of trading, and at the lows of the day.
• The U.S. dollar surged, particularly against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Top Trump administration officials are arguing that it is misleading to include government spending in the quarterly tally of GDP.

• It sets up a clash between the administration and economists over how to calculate the broadest measure of economic activity.

The big picture: GDP statistics are calculated the way they have been for the last eight decades for good reasons — but administration officials are correct that the accounting for government spending isn't ideal.

What they're saying: "You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures."

• "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent," he said.
• "A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Elon Musk wrote on X on Friday. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."

State of play: GDP aims to capture the value of all economic output produced in a given time period within U.S. borders. The formula for that tally, which you may recall from introductory economics, is that GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports.

• So why is government spending included in that formula? Because otherwise GDP would not fully capture the value of goods and services produced.
• When the government buys a fighter jet, or builds a road, or educates a child, it reflects the production of goods and services. So if you exclude government spending from GDP, you aren't getting a full picture of U.S. output.

Zoom in: It is true, however, that government spending is counted in GDP by simply adding in the dollars spent, without any real test of how efficiently or productively the money was used.

• "If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said in the TV appearance. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."
• It's true, as Musk and Lutnick suggest, that if the government hired a bunch of people to twiddle their thumbs all day, it would show up as higher GDP while not making anyone better off, save perhaps the thumb-twiddlers.

Of note: The Bureau of Economic Analysis — which Lutnick now oversees — acknowledges these limitations.

• "Difficult conceptual and practical problems arise in measuring the output of governments, primarily because most of this output is not sold in the marketplace," reads the bureau's handbook for GDP and related data.
• "If possible, it would be preferable to measure actual changes in the quantity or volume of the services provided, thus allowing for changes in productivity," the document notes.

Zoom out: More conceptually, it's not the job of economic statistics to make value judgments on what individuals, businesses or governments do with their money. It's just trying to get the math right.

• You might not agree that a given government expenditure was worthwhile, but that's true of every line of GDP.

For example, if somebody orders an absurdly priced $2,000 bottle of wine at a restaurant, that counts on line 20 of the GDP report as personal consumption expenditures on food services and accommodations.

• If a movie studio spends $100 million to make a terrible movie, that shows up on line 38 of the report, as fixed investment in entertainment, literary, and artistic originals.

Lutnick suggested the GDP statistics lack transparency about how government spending is incorporated.

• In fact, the data releases make crystal clear how much government contributes to overall GDP — and data-watchers can, and regularly do, exclude government for purposes of analyzing economic trends.

By the numbers: In Q4 of last year, overall U.S. output was an annualized $29.7 trillion, of which $1.9 trillion was federal government consumption and investment spending, and another $3.2 trillion state and local governments.

• Measures of activity that exclude government spending can give a better sense of the underlying trend in the economy than the headline GDP number.
• We're partial, for example, to real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which rose at a 5.4% rate in Q4. You can find it in Table 1, line 41 of the report.

The intrigue: Interestingly, the federal government's share of GDP has been relatively low of late. It was 6.4% last year, roughly the same as during the first Trump administration and well below Cold War levels. It peaked at 18% in 1953.

• Keep in mind that while federal spending on purchases and employee salaries count in these tabulations, transfer payments don't.
• So when the government sends out Social Security checks each month, that expenditure does not count toward GDP but does show up as personal consumption expenditures once recipients spend the money.

The bottom line: There are flaws and limitations in how government GDP statistics account for government spending.

• But they are well-known, transparent and the kinds of things economy-watchers can adjust for as they wish.

President Trump will hold a meeting Monday afternoon on the next steps regarding the crisis with Ukraine, including a possible suspension of U.S. military aid, a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump and his allies have been piling pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after their disastrous Oval Office meeting last week. Suspending military aid would damage Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia's invasion and further weaken Ukraine's leverage as Trump pushes for peace talks.

The latest: Trump responded on Truth Social to an AP report that Zelensky had said the end of the war was "still very, very far away," writing: "This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!"

• "It is what I was saying, this guy doesn't want there to be Peace as long as he has America's backing and, Europe, in the meeting they had with Zelenskyy, stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the U.S.," Trump continued.
• "Probably not a great statement to have been made in terms of a show of strength against Russia. What are they thinking?"

The other side: Zelensky wrote on X that "it is very important that we try to make our diplomacy really substantive to end this war the soonest possible."

• "We need real peace and Ukrainians want it most because the war ruins our cities and towns. We lose our people. We need to stop the war and to guarantee security.
• "We are working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace. Peace is needed as soon as possible."

Driving the news: That exchange seems to set the tone for Monday's meeting.

• Along with Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, National security adviser Mike Waltz and other senior officials are expected to participate, the sources said.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to questions.
• The New York Times first reported about the meeting.

What they are saying: Waltz told Fox News on Monday that time is not on Zelensky's side.

• "The American people's patience is not unlimited, their wallets are not unlimited, and our stockpiles and munitions are not unlimited," Waltz said. "So the time to talk is now."
• Trump's national security adviser added that in order to fix the crisis, Zelensky needs to express regret for his public spat with the president in the Oval Office last Friday, say he is ready to sign the minerals deal and that he is ready to engage in peace talks with Russia.

Friction point: Trump has been calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, to be followed by negotiation. But Zelensky is resistant to the idea of an unconditional ceasefire.

• The Trump-Zelensky meeting became particularly contentious after Zelensky claimed Putin had violated previous agreements and could not be trusted.
• Russia has also not advocated for a ceasefire, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Sunday that Trump's "rapidly changing" foreign policy "largely coincides with our vision."

Update: Trump told reporters Monday that he "hasn't even talked" until now about suspending military assistance to Ukraine. He added that Zelensky "needs to be more appreciative" towards the U.S. in order to solve the current crisis.

Editor's note: This story was updated with the comments from Trump and Zelensky.

President Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia, according to multiple reports.

Why it matters: It's the latest in a series of foreign policy reversals that appear favorable to The Kremlin, setting off alarm bells for U.S. allies, supporters of Ukraine and critics of the Trump administration.

• The directive, issued last month and first reported by the Record, is another example of the U.S.'s about-face on Moscow.

Driving the news: The suspension is only intended to last as long as negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war play out, officials told the Washington Post.

• Experts told the Post it's not unusual to halt operations during high-level talks but cautioned that the Kremlin could take advantage of the lapse.
• The Pentagon declined to comment to Axios.
• "Due to operational security concerns, we do not comment nor discuss cyber intelligence, plans, or operations," a senior defense official told Axios. "There is no greater priority to Secretary Hegseth than the safety of the Warfighter in all operations, to include the cyber domain."

The big picture: Moscow's cyber power remains a threat to critical U.S. and global infrastructure, the director of national intelligence's 2024 threat assessment concluded.

• Russia views cyber disruptions as "a foreign policy lever" to shape other countries' decisions and employ influence, the assessment stated.
• Even as Moscow prioritizes operations for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Russia still has the capacity to pose an "enduring global cyber threat," the assessment read.

Flashback: The U.S., at the end of 2021, sent cyber experts to Ukraine, a few months ahead of the Russian invasion.

• U.S. officials applauded the hunt-forward operation for blunting Moscow's cyber effectiveness: "Presence matters," said retired Gen. Paul Nakasone, then the chief of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, in 2022.

Zoom in: Russia's alleged efforts to interfere in U.S. elections and amplify domestic divisions through malign influence campaigns and illicit cyber activities have prompted sanctions and legal action.

• Asked about reports that the U.S. was pausing offensive cyber operations against Moscow, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that a halt had not been part of discussions between Moscow and the Trump administration.
• But he added, "There will be all kinds of carrots and sticks to get this war to an end."

Go deeper: U.S. votes against UN resolution condemning Russia for Ukraine invasion

Dozens of contracts critical to the functioning of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), have either been canceled or are on their way to termination, according to a detailed affidavit filed in federal court last week.

Why it matters: The CFPB is an agency tasked with protecting people from financial fraud, but it has been gutted by the White House over the past two weeks as part of the broad purge of the federal government.

• The filing offers more detail on what may have happened.

Catch up quick: The affidavit was filed by someone calling himself Charlie Doe, who says he is a contracting officer at the agency, which is a person who negotiates, administers and terminates contracts.

• It is part of a lawsuit filed by the National Treasury Employees Union against Russell Vought, the CFPB acting director, that claims efforts to "shut down" the agency are unlawful.

Where it stands: The plaintiffs in the lawsuit were able to get the court to pause contract terminations. But that agreement will expire today, when another hearing in the case is scheduled.

• It is unclear what happens next. Doe warns that if there is no order prohibiting the termination to continue, the vast majority of these contracts will be fully terminated within the week.

Zoom in: Doe says he has worked in government for 25 years, but the past few weeks "are unlike anything I've ever seen at any agency during any change in administration."

• Agency staff were directed to cancel a total of about 174 contracts with vendors, for training of examiners who supervise banks, for handling cybersecurity, and for serving as expert witnesses in litigation.
• Canceled contracts are listed on DOGE's Wall of Receipts, and appear to also include mortgage data analytics and one for short- and long-term disability insurance services.

What they're saying: "These are the basics of what it takes to run an agency," Julie Morgan, former associate director at the CFPB, tells Axios.

Yes, but: The Trump administration, in a court filing, says it will continue to operate the CFPB and has nominated a new director.

The intrigue: Some contracts are related to maintaining the agency's much-lauded consumer complaint database, where members of the public can go to register issues they're facing with companies. It is generally viewed as one of the most popular and least controversial services the CFPB offers.

• After news got out that a contract for a complaint hotline was terminated, that agreement was reinstated. That doesn't mean the agency's complaint mechanisms are working. A different contract to maintain the complaint database remains canceled, per the affidavit.
• "There is now a backlog of thousands of complaints that haven't been forwarded to financial institutions," the affidavit says.

Between the lines: You don't need vendors or services if your agency isn't doing anything. Most employees were told earlier this month to stop their work.

• Over the past few days, the CFPB dropped at least seven lawsuits it had filed against financial institutions, alleging they had ripped off student loan borrowers, those who buy mobile homes and others.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s move to reduce public comments on certain federal health rules injects new uncertainty into the regulatory landscape and could help him make controversial policy decisions unchecked.

Why it matters: The wonky policy statement he issued on Friday has a direct bearing on the dispute over the National Institutes of Health's research funding cap and could make it easier to impose Medicaid work rules.

State of play: The transparency policy Kennedy is undoing dates to 1971 and requires public comment for HHS rules on public property, loans, grants, public benefits or contracts.

• It layered new obligations on HHS beyond those laid out in statute, requiring the department to notify health providers, patient advocates and other stakeholders when it was making policy changes and seek their comment before finalizing plans, with minimal exceptions.

Kennedy now says the policy imposes extra requirements and is "contrary to the efficient operation of the department."

• "The department will continue to follow notice and comment rulemaking procedures in all instances in which it is required to do so by the statutory text of the [Administrative Procedure Act]," the notice says.

The broadly worded change could apply to a slew of programs including NIH grants and Medicaid policy, legal experts say.

• For example, skipping public comment could make it easier for HHS to require Medicaid recipients to work in order to receive benefits, CBS reported.
• The change does not apply to Medicare and its myriad payment rules, because that program has its own legal requirements for soliciting public comments.

What they're saying: Kennedy's move drew immediate blowback from health providers and advocates.

• "The practice, delivery, and regulation of medicine is incredibly complex," Stella Dantas, president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, said in a statement.
• "The experiences of patients, clinicians, administrators, and other stakeholders across medicine must be taken into account in order to avoid unintended outcomes."
• Jerome Adams, President Trump's first-term surgeon general, posted on X that he saw a fundamental conflict between the policy change and calls from Trump and Kennedy supporters for the government to listen to the people.
• "Are you really for transparency?" he wrote.

Flash back: HHS tried to rescind its policy of collecting extra public comment beyond the statutory requirement in 1980, Stat reported. After significant backlash from lawmakers, HHS eventually scrapped the plan.

• Some Democratic lawmakers have started to raise alarm about Kennedy's comment policy rollback, suggesting it's aimed at stamping out opposing views.
• "Despite this clear attempt to block dissent, including from health experts, the American people will not be silenced and they will hold HHS accountable for harmful regulations," Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said in a statement Friday.

Zoom out: NIH grant recipients sued HHS earlier this month for significantly reducing funding for research overhead and administrative costs without a public comment period.

• Friday's notice may invalidate that legal argument, though the case has other arguments to stand on, said Daniel Graham, a partner at McDermott Will & Emery and leader of their government contracts group.

What we're watching: Without advance notice, it may be harder for health organizations to plan for changes or to know if they're following federal regulations.

• And the torrent of litigation against the Trump administration's health policy changes will continue, and maybe even increase. When a policy is changed without collecting sufficient stakeholder comments, it can be challenged in court, said Dan Jarcho, a partner at law firm Alston & Bird.
• "There's a good possibility that this policy change will trigger more litigation against HHS," Jarcho said.

The number of immigrants removed from the U.S. was down during President Trump's first days in office compared to the daily average in the final weeks of Joe Biden's term, according to early numbers reviewed by Axios.

Why it matters: The data offer a mixed view of how Trump's plans to deport "millions" of unauthorized immigrants and dramatically beef up border security are playing out so far.

Zoom in: On one hand, the large drop in illegal border crossings since Trump took office has significantly reduced the number of people U.S. agents are catching at the border and designating for quick removal.

• Trump is celebrating this decline, saying in a Truth Social post Saturday, "The Invasion of our Country is OVER."

On the other hand, the administration's push to quickly remove millions of undocumented immigrants in the nation's interior has run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges.

• Immigrants arrested well within the nation's interior are entitled to a court hearing in a system that's backlogged for months.

By the numbers: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals of immigrants who were in the country illegally declined by 6.5% during Trump's first two full weeks in office, according to the data from the ICE detention management database and collected by the nonpartisan Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).

• From Jan. 26 to Feb. 8, the U.S. government removed from the country 693 a day on average, the TRAC analysis found.
• From Oct. 1 to Jan. 25, the period including the last days of the Biden administration, the daily average for removals was 733.

Zoom out: Daily immigrant arrests by ICE were down nearly 5% during the first week of February compared to the daily average during all of fiscal 2024 under the Biden administration.

• ICE arrested an average of 724 people a day the first eight days of February. The average number of arrests in FY 2024 was 759.

A senior White House official told Axios that overall, Trump is happy with the efforts and pace of his immigration crackdown.

• "He's happy with it, but we're not going to take our foot off the gas. It's all gas, no brakes, is what we say," the official said.

The intrigue: Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, told Axios that "removals aren't down" but did not provide data explaining that point of view.

• McLaughlin said about 55,000 people were removed from the U.S. by all enforcement agencies from Jan. 21 to Feb. 27.
• It appears she was referring to removals (deportations and removals of undocumented immigrants), administrative returns (migrants who withdraw applications at ports of entry or crew members on ships who arrive without visas) and enforcement returns (migrants crossing the border who are returned by ICE, the Border Patrol or another agency).
• That figure would be below the monthly average for those categories in fiscal 2024, which was about 67,700 — excluding December, for which there isn't updated data yet.
• In February alone of last year, total removals were more than 69,000 people, according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics.

Between the lines: Trump's administration has pleaded with Congress for more funding to ramp up enforcement.

• Border czar Tom Homan has been making the rounds to law enforcement groups, in media interviews and on Capitol Hill to rally support for Trump's biggest campaign promise.

The administration has modified deals with private prison contractors CoreCivic and Geo Group to provide more detention space for arrested immigrants.

• Contractors providing technical and data services also are pitching the administration on how to better share "enforcement lifecycle" data between agencies.
• "Technology is how you supercharge President Trump's policy. Of course ICE is going to need a massive ramping up of resources, but not just legacy additives — creative and innovative solutions are key here," said one person close to the administration, who asked not to be identified because the funding debate is fluid.

What they're saying: "Everybody's caught up in the Dow Jones-ing of ICE arrest numbers — which proves very little," said Jason Houser, a former ICE chief of staff during the Biden administration.

Crashing a car is like crashing a computer these days — and the result is a higher share of vehicles being totaled.

Why it matters: When cars, pickups and SUVs are deemed a total loss, it leads to higher replacement costs and higher insurance premiums for everyone else.

Between the lines: The share of vehicles deemed totaled in collisions hit an all-time high of 27% in 2023, according to LexisNexis Risk Solutions data compiled for Axios.

• That's up from 19% in 2018.

The big picture: Vehicles are stuffed with electronics these days — and even if they don't need to be replaced or repaired after a crash, the electronics need to be addressed.

• Advanced driver assistance systems — such as lane-departure warning and rear-cross alerts — "have to be recalibrated with any accident," says Chris Rice, VP of strategic business intelligence for LexisNexis Risk Solutions.

Zoom in: Pandemic-era trends also accelerated the percentage of vehicles that are declared a total loss, for multiple reasons.

• The cost of replacement parts spiked.
• The amount of time needed to get repairs increased, which also increased the amount of time that insurers had to provide loaners to car owners.
• The cost of loaners soared as car prices skyrocketed, when the chips shortage created production delays.
• It's "almost a perfect storm," says Frank Cesario, senior director for claims at LexisNexis Risk Solutions.

The upshot is that insurers often decide that they'd rather fund a replacement than go through the process of repairing a vehicle that's been damaged.

• The average annual cost of full auto coverage increased 15% nationwide in 2024, per data from Insurify reported by Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick.
• Rates are likely to increase 5% nationwide this year, Insurify predicts.

The bottom line: If you're in an accident, don't be surprised if your vehicle doesn't make it.

America is the world's biggest business, and its shareholders — U.S. taxpayers — should be panicked about the state of their investment, says star Wall Street analyst-turned investor Mary Meeker.

Why it matters: For the first time since 2011, Meeker examined the financials of the U.S. the way she would analyze those of a public company. "USA Inc," however, has more at stake than any single corporation: America's worsening fiscal position could limit its ability to respond to economic or geopolitical threats down the line.

What they're saying: "Beneath the surface, financial 'results' — treating the government as if it were a corporation — conceal a buildup in structural weakness that can jeopardize our country's standing in the world," Meeker, who made her name during the dotcom boom, writes in a new report first seen by Axios.

The intrigue: Meeker, founder of venture capital firm Bond, does not mention in her report the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk's attempt to wield his business acumen to cut spending by at least $1 trillion.

• But Meeker said that improving the government's "operating efficiency" would ease spending, as originally proposed in her 2011 report.

By the numbers: If the government (by any method) reverted to the slower headcount growth trend seen from 1988 to 2009, that would imply 840,000 fewer workers in the next five years, according to Meeker's updated analysis.

• That would save more than $1.3 trillion over the coming decade.
• "USA Inc. could also focus intensively on local private company outsourcing, where state and local governments are finding real productivity gains," Meeker says.

The report updates a list of suggestions that appear aligned with Musk's philosophy — including pushing agencies and lawmakers to justify the expenses in proposed fiscal budgets.

Flashback: Meeker believed a 450-slide document published in 2011 would be her "one and done" alert on America's fiscal state. Warnings in the 2010s about higher borrowing costs are now the nation's reality.

• "Even as USA Inc.'s debt was rising for decades, plunging interest rates were keeping the cost of supporting it relatively steady," Meeker writes.

Now interest payments are swallowing government revenue, with spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security set to explode.

• Entitlements and net interest payments will absorb all of the government's revenue this fiscal year, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates cited by Meeker.
• "With our demographics and our debts, we're on a collision course with the future," Meeker writes. "If we don't act very soon, which generation will be left holding the bag?"

Yes, but: No business has the borrowing and taxation powers of the U.S. government. Its scope of responsibilities are unmatched by any single corporation.

• For decades, Wall Street has warned about an impending fiscal crisis that would restrain the government's ability to borrow.
• In 2011, Meeker said that net debt levels were approaching "warning levels," though no fiscal crisis has emerged — at least not yet.

The bottom line: The government fiscal situation has deteriorated since Meeker's warning 14 years ago.

• Meeker says the "tide may now be shifting," though the realities of cutting spending where it would be meaningful — entitlements — look as politically impossible as ever.

The 97th Academy Awards were a shining moment for independent studios.

Why it matters: Indie films "Anora" and "Flow" took home six Oscars combined, including Best Picture and Animated Feature Film, respectively.

• Meanwhile, "Succession" star Kieran Culkin won a best supporting actor Oscar for Jesse Eisenberg's comedy drama "A Real Pain."

Zoom in: "Anora," which was made on a $6 million budget and has grossed nearly $41 million worldwide, also won best director and best actress.

• "Flow" was made using Blender, a free, open source software, which also won the top prize for an animated feature at the Golden Globes.
• "A Real Pain" is a co-production between Poland and the U.S. about two cousins who go on a tour of their Jewish heritage in the central European country.

What they're saying: "It really feels wonderful knowing that The Academy is recognizing independent film," "Anora" director Sean Baker told Axios on Sunday evening.

• "We always jump into these projects knowing that we will have to compete with films that have budgets that are literally almost 100 times what we've shot our film for."
• "So when we're actually able to do that and get into the same room as other films, it means that we're doing something right."

Go deeper: Where to watch this year's Oscar-nominated movies

Firefighters in North and South Carolina were battling dozens of wildfires over the weekend during dry, windy conditions that saw authorities order some residents to evacuate.

The big picture: South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) declared a state of emergency emergency Sunday after officials declared a statewide burn ban the previous day that the governor said would remain in effect indefinitely.

• Evacuation orders were temporarily issued in response to the state's largest blaze, the Carolina Forest Fire, near Myrtle Beach, S.C. — which officials said had razed some 1,600 acres at 30% containment on Sunday evening as residents were permitted to return home.
• North Carolina officials also issued evacuation orders in response to a fire in the Blue Ridge Mountains. The 176 Fire had burned over 500 acres by 8pm and was 30% contained Sunday, per a Polk County Emergency Management said on Facebook post that said a decision on lifting evacuation orders would be made Monday.

Zoom out: Strong winds and very dry conditions were promoting "critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, especially across eastern New Mexico and far western Texas" on Sunday, per the National Weather Service.

• "As this system initially comes through the Southwest and out into the southern High Plains, there will be concerns for gusty winds, and this coupled with the dry conditions will support elevated to critical fire weather concerns," the NWS said in Sunday forecast discussion.
• "Areas of southern Arizona through southern New Mexico and western Texas will see the greatest fire weather concerns through Sunday and early Monday."

In photos: Firefighters tackle fires across the Carolinas

Go deeper: Climate change plays key contributing role in LA fires

New York launched a job recruitment ad campaign targeting fired federal workers at midnight Monday.

The big picture: Gov. Kathy Hochul's (D) "you're hired" campaign to fill 7,000 public sector roles follows similar jobs initiatives in other states aimed at people who were laid off in the Trump administration's federal government overhaul, driven by DOGE, which billionaire Elon Musk is the face of.

The latest: N.Y. has opened a portal with resources for job-seekers that updated early Monday, with the message: "If you have lost your federal job due to cuts, or just want to get out, New York says 'You're Hired!'"

• The message notes that N.Y. has more than 7,000 current job openings in a "wide range of career fields" and that the state "values its state workforce, providing a host of benefits, including a nation-leading Paid Parental Leave policy."
• Meanwhile, recruitment ads were displayed on digital directory displays throughout New York City's Union Station from midnight, per an emailed statement Sunday from Sam Spokony, a spokesperson for the governor.

Zoom in: Spokony said in a text message Monday evening some of the most in-demand jobs that were currently vacant included for engineers, educators, health care workers, attorneys, technologists and public policy experts.

• "We'll continue to update our online resources whenever new job opportunities become available," Spokony added.

What they'e saying: "Elon Musk and his clueless cadre of career killers know nothing about how government works, who it serves, and the tireless federal employees who keep it running," Hochul said in a statement to Axios.

• "Here in New York we don't vilify public servants, we value them and their efforts. So when DOGE says 'You're fired,' New York is ready to say 'You're hired' — and we're making sure talented, experienced federal workers know about the many opportunities available in our state workforce."

The other side: White House spokesperson Harrison Fields said in a statement to N.Y. outlets, "Leave it to the failed New York State bureaucracy to stack their payrolls with more bureaucrats … Growing the public sector is not President Trump's definition of job creation."

• Representatives for the Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Zoom out: Other states to announce recruitment and support campaigns for fired federal workers include Virginia, which has launched a resources roundup page.

• "Come experience those powerful words of 'You are hired.' Take advantage of the resources that will help you find your pathway to that career of your dreams," said Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at a briefing announcing the drive to promote the state's more than 250,000 open positions.
• In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore (D) on Friday announced "expanded resource webpages across state government, partnerships to launch job fairs across the state, and directives for agencies to facilitate public servant transitions to new careers in Maryland," per a statement from the governor's office.
• In Hawai'i, Gov. Josh Green (D) signed an executive order designed to expedite the state's hiring process and attract fired federal workers, and the City and County of Honolulu launched the Federal-to-Municipal Workforce Transition Initiative.

More from Axios:

• How DOGE cuts might show up in the data
• The states that could feel DOGE cuts the most
• DOGE workers quit, refuse to "dismantle public services" on Musk's orders

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional developments in N.Y. since the ad drive launched and with details of other states' campaigns.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke of the benefits of the MMR vaccine on Sunday in response to a growing measles outbreak in Texas.

Why it matters: Kennedy has a long record of sowing skepticism about vaccines and last week appeared to downplay the situation in Texas when he described such outbreaks as "not unusual."

• He has previously repeated debunked claims about vaccines and provided elusive answers to senators on his stance on vaccinations ahead of being confirmed.

Driving the news: Kennedy wrote an op-ed for Fox News' website on Sunday with the headline "Measles outbreak is call to action for all of us" and the subheading "MMR vaccine is crucial to avoiding potentially deadly disease."

• Kennedy wrote that before the introduction of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine in the 1960s, "virtually every child in the United States contracted measles."
• He noted that from 1953 to 1962, "on average there were 530,217 confirmed cases and 440 deaths," with a fatality rate of 1 in 1,205 cases.
• "Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity, protecting those who are unable to be vaccinated due to medical reasons," Kennedy wrote.

Yes, but: Kennedy emphasized that the decision to vaccinate is "a personal one."

Situation report: At least 146 measles cases have been identified in the South Plains and Panhandle since January, according to the latest available information from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

• A school-aged child in Lubbock who was not vaccinated against measles died after contracting the highly contagious virus, according to the department.

Zoom out: The outbreak comes as vaccination rates fall and trust in public health institutions declines.

Go deeper: FDA cancels meeting to pick flu vaccine strains for next winter

Editor's note: This article has been updated with further context.

Moscow is welcoming the apparent shift in U.S. relations with Ukraine following last week's tense Oval Office meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Trump and Vice President Vance.

The big picture: Kremlin officials commended the U.S. on Sunday, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying the United States' "rapidly changing" foreign policy configurations "largely coincides with our vision."

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also praised Trump for his "common sense," even if the U.S. and Russia are not aligned on everything.
• A spokesperson for Russia's foreign ministry said after the Oval Office meeting that it was a "miracle of restraint" that Trump and Vance didn't hit Zelensky.
• Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chair of Russia's security council, crowed that "the insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office."

Driving the news: For at least one Republican, the idea of the U.S. walking away from its allies is stomach-turning. But others in the GOP have dismissed the commentary from Moscow — and have taken their turn heaping on criticism for Zelensky.

What they're saying: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) wrote in a Saturday X post that she is "sick" as the Trump administration "appears to be walking away from our allies and embracing [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, a threat to democracy and U.S. values around the world."

• Her condemnation followed weeks of rhetoric from the White House signaling a softer approach to Putin and a brewing hostility toward Zelensky, whom the president called a "dictator" before walking it back last week.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that the "White House has become an arm of the Kremlin."

Yes, but: The Trump administration has largely dismissed the concerns from some in Congress, instead praising Trump for bringing Putin to the bargaining table and arguing the president is the only person who can end the war.

• "They're going to say what their position is," Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, said in response to Russian reactions on "Fox News Sunday." "What we should pay attention to here in the United States of America is the American people."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also waved off Murkowski's criticism.

• ''We're a free country. People have a right to these opinions," he said on ABC's "This Week" in response to her statement, later arguing if a Democrat had handled recent talks as Trump had, "everyone would be saying, well, he's on his way to the Nobel Peace Prize."
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) argued Trump has been "very clear" that Putin was the aggressor in the war (Trump has falsely blamed Ukraine for starting the conflict), saying Murkowski's view is "plainly wrong."

What's next: While U.S. leaders seem to suggest the ball is in Kyiv's court in the wake of the spat, European leaders quickly organized to contain the damage.

• "We have to find a way where we can all work together," UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who met with Trump the day before Friday's clash, told the BBC Sunday.
• He said the UK will work with other European nations to develop a plan to end the war supported by a "coalition of the willing" and present it to Trump, who Starmer says still wants a "lasting peace."
• But the seas between the U.S. and its European allies grow choppier — threatening to sink a longstanding bridge.

Go deeper: Inside the Oval: How Trump sent Zelensky home with no deal and no meal

Democratic senators who crossed the aisle to back their former colleague Marco Rubio for Secretary of State now say they regret it.

The big picture: Rubio easily swept through the Senate with bipartisan backing. But as the early days of Trump 2.0 bring historic shifts in American foreign policy, some Democrats now see the former Florida senator in a different light.

• Rubio was in the Oval Office on Friday for the jaw-dropping argument between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Trump and Vice President Vance.
• And after, he was one of the leaders who asked the Ukrainian president to leave, casting the minerals deal officials had gathered to sign into uncertainty.

Driving the news: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that voting to approve Rubio's nomination in January was "a mistake."

• "I think a lot of us thought that Marco Rubio was going to stand up to Donald Trump" on issues like Russia's years-long war in Ukraine, Murphy said.
• "I thought when Donald Trump decided to do that, when Donald Trump would come to him and say, help me move America closer to Russia .... Marco Rubio would stand up to him," he said. "Marco Rubio has not."

Catch up quick: Rubio has stood beside the president as the administration leads an "America-first" shift away from European allies, rebukes the country's northern neighbor and pushes plans to take over war-torn Gaza.

What they're saying: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) shared Murphy's sentiment on "Fox News Sunday," saying, "I regret that vote" to confirm Rubio.

• "As a member of the Senate, Secretary Rubio was somebody who stood up for American values, American principles," Van Hollen said, noting that his former colleague "acknowledged that Russia was the aggressor against Ukraine."
• In recent weeks, Trump falsely claimed Ukraine started the war, and other administration officials have declined to say whether Russia was the aggressor in the bloody war, which began in 2022 when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• "[N]ow he's simply taking his directions to the State Department from Elon Musk and essentially parroting the president's position, which I understand, but it's very different than what Senator Rubio used to talk about," Van Hollen said.

Go deeper: GOP piles on Trump's Zelensky hostility

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and others in the GOP chided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday following a heated Oval Office meeting with President Trump and Vice President Vance on Friday.

The big picture: The tense exchange between the three leaders has further soured an already strained relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine and led to at least one GOP member — South Carolina's Lindsey Graham — to suggest Zelensky leave office.

Driving the news: Johnson said on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday that Zelensky needs to "come to his senses" and return to the negotiating table "in gratitude, or someone else needs to lead the country to do that."

• Asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin also needed to step down, Johnson said he'd like to see him "defeated."
• He argued the U.S. is not abandoning Ukraine but criticized the country's leader for appearing "rather stiff-necked in the Oval Office instead of being gracious and saying, 'Thank you,' and looking for a way out of this mess."

Reality check: Zelensky was accused by Vance of not saying "thank you" during the Oval Office showdown, but the Ukrainian leader has thanked the U.S. — and both Presidents Biden and Trump — for its support dozens of times.

• When the leaders gathered in the White House Friday, they were slated to sign a minerals deal. But the talks exploded before the press, prompting the deal to be scratched.
• After Zelensky publicly questioned Vance's definition of "diplomacy," the barbs started to fly: The vice president accused the Ukrainian leader of disrespect and argued he led "propaganda tours."
• Trump, who described Zelensky as an unelected dictator last month, told his visitor he was "not in a good position," saying, "you don't have the cards."

Zoom in: White House national security adviser Mike Waltz, who Axios reported directed Zelensky to leave the White House on Friday alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" that "it wasn't clear to us" that Zelensky "was ready to negotiate in good faith."

• Asked if Trump wants to see Zelensky resign from his post, Waltz replied, "if it becomes apparent that President Zelensky's either personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in his country, then ... I think we have a real issue on our hands."
• Responding to his past characterization of Zelensky as a modern-day Winston Churchill, Waltz said the former UK prime minister was "a man for a moment."

The other side: Not all Republicans are on board with calls for Zelensky to step aside.

• "I'm not interested in calling on the resignation of other world leaders," Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said on NBC's "Meet the Press" in response to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) suggesting Zelensky needed to pass the reins.
• "I think that would spiral Ukraine into chaos right now, trying to find who is the negotiator to bring an issue to peace," he added.

Meanwhile, Democrats and others admonished the administration and its Republican chorus Sunday, with Sen Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) slamming calls for Zelensky to resign as a "horrific suggestion."

• "I think millions of Americans are embarrassed, are ashamed, that you have a President of the United States who says that Ukraine started the war, that Zelenskyy is a dictator — he's got it exactly backwards," Sanders told NBC's Kristen Welker.
• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) condemned the White House's softening approach to Moscow and recent tendency to echo Russian talking points, contending on CNN that "the White House has become an arm of the Kremlin."

Go deeper: Zelensky says he doesn't think he did anything wrong after public spat with Trump

Israel announced on Sunday it is halting all humanitarian aid and fuel deliveries to Gaza and closing the border crossings between Israel and the enclave.

Why it matters: Israel took the step a day after the ceasefire agreement with Hamas ended.

• An Israeli official told reporters that the food and other supplies that entered Gaza in the last 42 days would be enough for four to six months and the fuel would last several weeks.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he made the move because Hamas rejected a U.S. proposal to extend the ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages.
• He stressed the step was taken "in full coordination with President Trump and his people."
• "Israel will not allow a ceasefire without a release of our hostages. If Hamas persists in its refusal, there will be additional consequences," Netanyahu said.

Flashback: According to the original hostage and ceasefire deal, the ceasefire continues after day 42 if the parties are still negotiating the second phase of the deal.

Yes, but: While Hamas was ready to negotiate the second phase, Israel never seriously engaged.

Driving the news: On Saturday night, the Netanyahu's office said Israel agreed to a new U.S. proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire in exchange for the release of about half of the remaining hostages — both living and dead — and claimed Hamas has refused to accept it.

• Hamas is still holding 59 hostages. Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel believes as many as two dozen are still alive, including one American.

The U.S. proposal presented by the White House's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff included extending the temporary ceasefire for an additional 50 days, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told Axios.

• On the first day of the extended ceasefire, half of the living hostages and half of the dead hostages would be released, Netanyahu's office said.
• The U.S. proposal stipulates that negotiations will be held on a permanent ceasefire during the extended time.
• If an agreement is reached on a permanent ceasefire, the remaining living and dead hostages would be released, the Prime Minister's office said.

The other side: Hamas said in a statement on Sunday that Netanyahu's endorsement of the U.S. proposal is "an attempt to avoid implementing the hostage and ceasefire deal and negotiate the second phase."

• Hamas said the Israeli decision to halt aid delivery is "blackmail and a war crime" and a violation of what has been previously agreed.
• Hamas said Netanyahu is responsible for undermining the agreement and the implications his decisions have for the hostages.
• "The only way to release the hostages is implementing the agreement and starting negotiations over the second phase of the deal," Hamas said.

The other side: "Israel has negotiated in good faith since the beginning of this administration to ensure the release of hostages held captive by Hamas terrorists. We will support their decision on next steps given Hamas has indicated it's no longer interested in a negotiated ceasefire," National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes told Axios.

State of play: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said on Sunday his country is making efforts to resolve the crisis and extend the ceasefire.

• He criticized the Israeli decision and said that "using aid as a weapon of collective punishment and starvation in Gaza can't be accepted or permitted."
• The IDF conducted several drone strikes in Gaza on Sunday. According to Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, at least four Palestinians were killed.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a response from the NSC.

Colleges have been a conservative target for years. Under President Trump, it's total warfare on all aspects of higher education — from student life to hiring to athletics.

Why it matters: Universities are scrambling to steel themselves for an onslaught of investigations. Even if some cuts are undone by future administrations or some directives don't hold up in the courts, many colleges are rushing to make changes they won't be able to undo easily.

• "The federal government is coming for higher education," says Jeremy Young, the Freedom to Learn program director for PEN America. "And if you are one of America's 4,000 college presidents, and you stick your neck out, it's going to get cut off."

Driving the news: In a letter to schools last month, the Education Department said they could lose funding if they have policies related to race and diversity. And though the letter doesn't have the force of law, many institutions are acting quickly to comply — with moves big and small.

• Colorado State University is shifting employee roles, tweaking HR policies and scrubbing websites, Axios Denver's Alayna Alvarez reports.
• The University of Pennsylvania has edited websites — or removed them altogether, notes Axios Philadelphia's Mike D'Onofrio. Penn's medical school is looking at cutting programs that help diversify its student body, The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
• The Ohio State University is shutting down two campus offices focused on DEI and cutting more than a dozen staff positions. It's renaming the Office of Institutional Equity to the Office of Civil Rights Compliance.
• Several colleges had already started cutting programs, shuttering cultural centers and changing up course catalogs even before Trump took office — either to prepare for the administration's changes, or in response to state-level action.

Zoom out: DEI is making headlines, but the chaos is wider.

• Stanford, MIT, Columbia and Vanderbilt are already freezing hiring or cutting back on the number of Ph.D. students they'll accept as they hear of DOGE's proposed cuts to federal medical research.
• Universities are also working to comply with the NCAA's new ban on trans athletes.
• Many are fielding investigations over former trans athletes that competed on their teams, or responses to pro-Palestinian protests on campus. And the Justice Department is sending an antisemitism task force to several campuses.

Changes are likely to last: "Once a college closes a DEI office, once it shuts down a research program, once it censors a syllabus, these things are not coming back," says Pen America's Young. "The political will is not there to bring them back on a college campus."

What to watch: Some colleges are waiting and seeing which policy changes stick.

• Drexel University is holding off on changes as it monitors the situation, Axios Philadelphia reports.
• Western Michigan University's president told his campus to "please process as usual."
• University of Colorado Boulder Chancellor Justin Schwartz said he'll "only change operations if and when we have to."

The battle over a single state Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin is on track to be among the most expensive judicial races in history, fueled by donations from big fundraising names such as Elon Musk and George Soros.

Why it matters: Democrats and Republicans alike see the Wisconsin race as having outsized importance in politics, stretching far beyond the Dairy State.

• The April 1 election will determine the tilt of an ideologically divided bench in a purple state where state-level decisions carry national implications for abortion rights, legislative redistricting and election laws.
• State Supreme Court races historically have been under-the-radar affairs. But they've risen to national prominence recently, accelerated by the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn the federal right to abortion. States now determine whether to allow the procedure.

Driving the news: Although technically nonpartisan, the Wisconsin race — between Brad Schimel, a judge in Waukesha County and former GOP attorney general, and Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge — has become a proxy for national party figures seeking to exert their influence in a high-profile, off-year election.

• Roughly $30 million already has been spent on the race, which appears on pace to break — or at least rival — the record-breaking $50 million that was spent on the state's Supreme Court race in 2023.
• If Schimel wins, the seven-member court will have a conservative majority until at least 2026. If Crawford wins, the court will have a liberal majority until at least 2028. Liberals have held the majority on the court since 2023.

Zoom in: What distinguishes this year's election from the 2023 race are the donations flowing in from prominent national donors — particularly Musk, who was the biggest donor of the 2024 presidential election.

• Musk, who has become one of the most powerful people in Washington, wrote on X in January that it is "very important to vote Republican" in the Wisconsin race.

By the numbers: According to data from the tracking firm AdImpact, at least $17 million has been spent on advertising for Crawford's campaign, compared to roughly $16 million for Schimel's.

• A Musk-backed conservative nonprofit, Building America's Future, had spent more than $3 million on advertising in the race as of Friday, per AdImpact. His America PAC has spent at least $404,000 on radio ads.
• Democratic megadonor Soros donated $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party in January, campaign finance filings show. Billionaire Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker donated $500,000 and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman donated $250,000.
• Shortly after these donations, the party transferred more than $2 million to Crawford's campaign, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

State of play: "It's remarkable how much national money has poured into that state, but it's all about a very competitive political environment nationally," said Michael Kang, an election law professor at Northwestern University.

• The outside spending is "another illustration of how these have transformed from pretty quiet local races to nationalized elections that in some ways feel just like a high stakes U.S. Senate race," said Douglas Keith, a senior counsel in the Brennan Center's Judiciary Program.

The intrigue: The outside donations have raised questions about possible conflicts of interest, and whether the candidates would step aside if they were to hear a case involving a donor.

• Musk's Tesla Inc. has sued Wisconsin over the company being blocked from opening new dealerships in the state, a case that could wind up before the state Supreme Court, per Wisconsin Public Radio.

What they're saying: "Republicans including billionaire Elon Musk are pouring in historic amounts of cash to buy this state Supreme Court seat because they understand the stakes as well as we do," Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spokesperson Sam Paisley said in a statement.

• The DLCC announced this week that it was adding the state Supreme Court races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to their map of targeted races.

What to watch: Off-year elections tend to see much lower turnout than those in midterm and presidential years, but the race will provide an early test of the strength of President Trump's coalition. Trump won the state in November.

• "If you are someone who is looking forward to the 2026 or 2028 elections, ... election law takes place in the states, so if you're trying to influence the rules under which those elections take place, you might be interested in who sits on state high courts," Keith said.

Go deeper: Courts foiling GOP's late push for election changes

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Building America's Future as of Friday had spent more than $3 million in advertising in the race (not given it directly to Schimel's campaign), per AdImpact.

Packing for your honeymoon? Don't forget your fake diamond ring.

Why it matters: More people are buying "stunt doubles" or "travel rings" to wear on vacation.

• The faux engagement rings offer a worry-free alternative to the real thing.

The big picture: Many have snagged such decoys — often featuring a synthetic stone, like cubic zirconia, set in a sterling silver band — from Amazon or Etsy, where some options are cheaper than $50.

• But others are turning to jewelers for custom-made duplicates.

How it works: Those who purchase a bespoke ring from Lancaster, Pennsylvania-based Wove get to keep a replica of it.

• Frank Darling, which has locations in cities including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, sells custom dupes and $300 lookalikes of rings in its collection.
• Both companies ship nationwide.

Backup bling is booming as engagement rings get bigger and bolder.

• In particular, lab-grown diamonds have made it cheaper for jewelry lovers to score looks they've always wanted.

Between the lines: Lab-grown gems are not as commonplace abroad, where people, including thieves, might think they are more valuable than they are.

What we're hearing: People buy replicas for travel even if their diamond rings are insured, Frank Darling CEO Kegan Fisher tells Axios.

• The allure of a replica is that it "feels and looks the same, but also still has your story in it," Wove CEO Simone Kendle tells us.

By the numbers: Posts tagged #TravelRing surged by over 480% between 2023 and 2024, according to TikTok data shared with Axios.

The other side: Skeptics say insurance exists for a reason. It's "silly to spend a good chunk of money on a nice ring then [be] too worried to wear it," one Reddit user writes.

• 78% of U.S. adults who recently bought or received an engagement ring say theirs is insured, according to research by insurance company Jewelers Mutual.

The bottom line: Travel rings help some vacationers stress less about their prized possession getting lost or damaged, insurance or not.