Democratic lawmakers, united in their fury over DOGE, are diverging on how to use President Trump's address to Congress next week as the effective launchpad for Resistance 2.0.

Why it matters: It's a question that has repeatedly splintered party members when faced with inflammatory speeches on Capitol Hill: Should they show up and protest from within, or boycott and counterprogram on the outside?

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) want members to attend and bring special guests who have been negatively affected by the administration.
• "We ask that House Democrats attending the Joint Address bring a guest who has been harmed by the Trump administration's early actions," the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC) told congressional offices in a memo obtained by Axios.

Zoom in: However, there are lawmakers in the House and Senate who believe a different form of resistance — nonparticipation — may be a better way to meet the moment.

• Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told Axios he is leaning against attending the speech because "when Trump does it, it's not a serious event."
• "We want to make [clear] that things are not business as usual. Things are falling apart," said Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), a DPCC co-chair who is undecided on attending.

What we're hearing: Other lawmakers told Axios their plans fell through or they will take their spouses, as is common.

• Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), Jeffries' top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, said he committed weeks ago to give his plus-one to a Republican colleague.
• "I hadn't really given much thought to bringing someone, partly out of my frustration with the president," Morelle told Axios.

Zoom out: Democrats have been debating the best method to fight their way out of the political wilderness. Initially, party leadership declined to respond in kind to Trump's flood-the-zone strategy.

• But under a barrage of admonishment from their grassroots to "fight harder," many Democrats have shifted to a more proactive posture of resistance.
• Leaders are trying to balance those two approaches by urging Democrats to stay laser-focused on hitting Musk and GOP spending cuts — including with Trump's speech.
• "It is more important than ever that House Democrats tune out the stream of chaos and ... communicate with precision on the issues that matter," said the DPCC memo.

By the numbers: Nearly a dozen House and Senate Democrats told Axios they are either leaning against attending the speech or undecided.

• Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) all declined to commit to attending.
• So did Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) and Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.).
• "As of now, I don't have any reason to go," said Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). "I know what he's going to say — he's going to get up there, he's going to lie, he's going to praise [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and all kinds of other nonsense."

The other side: "I know that many of my colleagues are eager to sit in and express our profound opposition to everything going on," said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.).

• "It is far better to push back inside the room, I think, than outside."

A parade of European leaders issued statements of solidarity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his stunning confrontation with President Trump in the Oval Office on Friday.

Why it matters: Trump has plunged the U.S. into a state of unprecedented isolation on the world stage. Ukraine's fate is deeply uncertain, as the country is now at risk of losing its most important partner in the three-year fight against Russia's invasion.

What's happening: Trump's team asked Zelensky to leave the White House after a meeting to sign a rare minerals deal devolved into an extraordinary screaming match in front of TV cameras.

• "He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
• The verbal clash was triggered when Zelensky asked Vice President Vance "what kind of diplomacy" he envisioned with Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly violated ceasefires since first occupying Ukraine in 2014.

Vance, who has long been critical of U.S. support for Ukraine, accused Zelensky of being disrespectful and ungrateful.

• Zelensky shot back that the U.S. could one day feel threatened by Russia — seemingly enraging Trump, who said the Ukrainian leader was "gambling with World War III."
• "What you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country, that's backed you," Trump said, raising his voice as the Ukrainian ambassador appeared to bury her head in her hands.

How it's playing: The confrontation with Zelensky exhilarated not only Trump's "America First" base, but Kremlin officials watching closely from Moscow.

• "The insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office. And Trump is right: The Kiev regime is 'gambling with WWIII,'" former Russian president and prime minster Dmitry Medvedev tweeted.
• "How Trump and Vance restrained themselves and didn't punch this scumbag is a miracle of endurance," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram.

What they're saying: European leaders, who are increasingly coming to terms with Trump's hostile approach toward the transatlantic alliance, moved swiftly to defend Zelensky with a coordinated message of support.

• "Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President Zelensky," tweeted European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
• The leaders of Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Lithuania, Sweden, and dozens of other European countries issued similar statements heaping praise on Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.
• Zelensky — whom Vance accused of not saying "thank you" a single time during his White House visit — individually thanked each European leader who expressed solidarity with Ukraine.

Between the lines: The Zelensky debacle is likely to be remembered as an inflection point for Europe, with little doubt that Trump will continue undermining U.S. alliances in the years ahead.

• "We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the aggressor," tweeted the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas, who has clashed repeatedly with Trump officials in recent weeks.
• "Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It's up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge."

President Trump and his top advisers huddled in the Oval Office after the on-camera shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday before Trump came to a decision: Zelensky had to go.

Behind the scenes: The delegation from Kyiv waited in another room for about an hour, still hoping to sign the minerals deal that prompted Zelensky's trip and to salvage the visit. Trump and Zelensky were still scheduled to have lunch and hold a joint press conference.

• Then Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz "went out of the Oval Office, walked to where Zelensky was sitting, and told him to leave," a senior White House official tells Axios.
• The visit was over without a minerals deal, and without any assurances of ongoing U.S. support.
• Trump followed up with a Truth Social post saying Zelensky "disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace."

Between the lines: The White House official insisted the explosion in the meeting was not a pre-meditated ambush. "Our plan was to sign the minerals deal and get into this economic partnership and move towards peace."

• The shouting match began after Vice President Vance answered a reporter's question by insisting that diplomacy with Russia was the only path to peace.
• An exasperated Zelensky replied with a monologue about how Putin violated previous agreements. "What diplomacy are you talking about JD?" he asked.
• Vance and Trump both accused Zelensky of disrespect, and Zelensky repeatedly tried to cut in as the rhetoric from the president and VP grew more hostile, with Trump at one point accusing Zelensky of "gambling with World War III."

U.S. allies swiftly rallied around Zelensky after the meeting, and Democrats on the Hill denounced Trump for bullying Ukraine's wartime leader.

• But Trump's aides put the blame squarely on Zelensky. "He could have just acknowledged the vice president's remarks and moved on, but he couldn't bring himself to do it," the White House official said.
• Whether the fracas was Zelensky's fault or not, the fallout for Ukraine could be severe. Zelensky has acknowledged just how dependent his military is on further U.S. aid, which remains highly uncertain.
• And Trump was not entirely wrong when he repeatedly told Zelensky he didn't "have the cards" to shape the outcome of the war without U.S. support.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who met Zelensky before his meeting with Trump, told reporters he advised the Ukrainian president "don't take the bait" and "talk about the positive." Now, "I don't know if we could ever do business with Zelensky again," Graham said.

One small but not insignificant factor that irritated Trump was the fact Zelensky didn't wear a suit, two sources with direct knowledge told Axios.

• Trump's advisers told Zelensky's team on multiple occasions that it would be more respectful for Zelensky to ditch his military-style attire when visiting the White House.
• Zelensky arrived at the White House wearing a more formal black outfit with Ukraine's national symbol, but without a suit.
• "He is all dressed up today," Trump remarked when he shook Zelensky's hand at the entrance to the West Wing.

Friction point: U.S. officials had suspected another Trump-Zelensky flare-up was likely at some point, based on his handling of the minerals deal negotiations.

• "For several days the Ukrainians jerked us around with this minerals deal and today was the inflection point," a senior U.S. official said. "The blank check era for Zelensky in Washington is over and he didn't realize that."
• For their part, the Ukrainians were furious that Trump tried to force what was initially a deeply lopsided deal on them at a time when the U.S. was already leaving them out of talks with Russia about the future of Ukraine.
• And as Friday's meeting got underway, Zelensky was clearly frustrated at being lectured about the trouble his own country was in.

After leaving the White House, Zelensky canceled his next two public events and published a short statement on X thanking the American people, Congress and Trump for their support.

• "Ukraine needs just and lasting peace, and we are working exactly for that," he wrote.

The number of immigrants held in detention under U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has hit the highest level in more than five years, new data show.

Why it matters: The detention surge comes as the Trump administration steps up immigration enforcement and seeks to expand the capacity to detain more immigrants amid a months-long backlog with immigration judges.

By the numbers: ICE is reporting that it has increased the number of immigrants in detention to 43,759 as of Feb. 23, according to new data collected by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) and reviewed by Axios.

• That's the highest detention level since November 2019 during the first Trump administration.
• The number of immigrants in detention reached as high as 55,654 in August 2019, with the help of temporary centers erected to house an increase of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Zoom in: 22,797 out of 43,759 — or 52.1% — held in ICE detention at the various locations across the country have no criminal record, TRAC found.

• Many more have only minor offenses, including traffic violations.
• ICE relied on detention facilities in Texas to house the most people during FY 2025, according to data current as of Feb. 18, 2025.
• Adams County Detention Center in Natchez, Miss., held the largest number of ICE detainees so far in fiscal year 2025, averaging 2,148 per day, the analysis found.

State of play: For the first time in four years, it appears that ICE is now responsible for more than half of all immigrants arrested, leading to detention.

• New numbers show 52% of detainees were originally arrested by ICE compared to 48% first apprehended by Customs and Border Protection (CBP), signaling how aggressive the Trump administration is turning toward the interior of the nation for immigration enforcement.
• ICE arrested 11,755 and CBP arrested 10,198 of the 21,953 people booked into detention by ICE during January 2025.

The intrigue: The switch to ICE making more arrests now than CBP isn't surprising since there is no lower border traffic, but also fewer people even trying to travel through the Darién Gap, Boston College Law School professor Daniel Kanstroom tells Axios.

• "A lot of people are stuck in Mexico right now, and I think the number of people moving north (is) definitely down now," said Kanstroom, the author of "Aftermath: Deportation Law and the New American Diaspora."
• Jennie Murray, president and CEO of the moderate to conservative-leaning National Immigration Forum, tells Axios that the Trump administration appears to be focusing more on enforcement in workplaces and cities.
• Still, in these early days of the Trump presidency, Murray says it's hard to determine long-term patterns. "The reporting has not been that consistent from ICE," she said.

Between the lines: Holding immigrants in detention is by far the largest cost of the deportation process.

• A backlog of 3.7 million cases in immigration courts, where immigrants are entitled to make their case to stay in the U.S., means detained immigrants can wait months, even years, for a hearing.
• Undocumented immigrants facing criminal charges can't be deported immediately, as President Trump has suggested. Instead, they typically have to go through the criminal justice system, serve sentences if found guilty, then face deportation.

President Trump and Vice President Vance's Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Friday quickly turned into a heated argument.

Why it matters: The meeting devolved into a shouting match, with Vance accusing Zelensky of disrespect and of misleading visitors by taking them on "propaganda tours," and Zelensky retorting that Vance had never visited Ukraine.

• See the video below.

Zelensky-Trump meeting

Editor's note: This story will be updated. Check back.

The main event of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House was supposed to be the signing of a minerals deal, but it quickly devolved into a heated argument with President Trump and Vice President Vance.

The latest: After an explosive Oval Office meeting in front of the press, Trump released a statement saying that he had determined Zelensky is "not ready for Peace if America is involved." Lunch and a joint press conference between the two leaders were canceled.

• "He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
• Zelensky departed the White House about two and a half hours after he arrived, and the minerals deal was not signed.

Driving the news: The Trump-Zelensky meeting in the Oval Office started with statements from both leaders and then questions from the press.

• After around 40 minutes, a reporter asked Trump why he engaged with Russian President Vladimir Putin and distanced himself from Ukraine.
• Trump replied that if he didn't show a balanced approach, he wouldn't be able to get a deal. "You want me to say really terrible things about Putin and then say, 'hi, Vladimir. How are we doing on the deal?' It doesn't work that way," Trump said.
• Trump then said Zelensky has "tremendous hatred" towards Putin and "it is very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate." He added: "I understand that, but I can tell you the other side isn't exactly in love with him, either." As Trump was speaking, Zelensky moved in his chair and looked more and more upset.
• Vance weighed in and said the way to end the war is through diplomacy. Zelensky then spoke directly to Vance, recounting the events since Russia's initial invasion in 2014 and all the failed diplomacy and Russian violations since then. "What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you talking about?" Zelensky asked.

At that point, the meeting devolved into a shouting match, with Vance accusing Zelensky of disrespect and of misleading visitors by taking them on "propaganda tours," and Zelensky noting Vance had never visited Ukraine.

• Zelensky then said that every country at war had problems and the U.S. would likely feel that some day too.
• Trump cut in and said Zelensky was "in no position to dictate what we're going to feel."
• "You're not in a good position ... you're gambling with the lives of millions of people, you're gambling with World War III ... and what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country, that's backed you," Trump said, as Zelensky crossed his arms and tried to interject.

At one point, Trump told Zelensky "you don't have the cards" and Zelensky replied tersely, "I'm not playing cards."

• Latest, Trump told Zelensky "your country is in big trouble," and Zelensky said "I know" before being cut off again by Trump.
• Trump insisted that Ukraine would have been overrun without U.S. help and that his help was the country's only chance.
• "It's going to be a very hard thing to do business like this," Trump said as Zelensky repeatedly tried to interject.

State of play: The visit comes as the Trump administration pushes for a ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and Russia, to be followed by peace negotiations.

• Zelensky said at the top of the meeting that the U.S. was "on our side" from the beginning of the war "and I think that Trump is on our side."
• He said he is sure U.S. assistance to Ukraine will continue, adding: "This is crucial for us."
• But he drew Trump's ire by objecting to the ceasefire plan, saying Putin had repeatedly broken ceasefires in the past.

Between the lines: Trump denounced Zelensky as an unpopular "dictator" earlier this month and falsely blamed him for starting the war. He had softened his tone significantly ahead of the meeting before today's blow-up.

What to watch: The signing of the minerals deal did not take place, and its status is unclear. Trump said at the top of the meeting with Zelensky that the deal was "fair" and it "a big commitment by the U.S."

• "The problem is, I've empowered you to be a tough guy, and I don't think he'd be a tough guy without the United States," Trump warned Zelensky. "Your people are very brave, but you're either going to make a deal or we're out, and if we're out, you'll fight it out."
• The U.S. wants to use the minerals "for all of the things we do, including AI and including weapons and the military," Trump said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

The cuts of about 800 probationary employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sliced deep into the agency tasked with a range of safety missions.

Why it matters: The cuts spared "only some" specialists at its National Weather Service, according to a congressional aide speaking on condition of anonymity.

• Layoffs at NOAA, a top weather and climate agency, come as climate change causes more intense and frequent weather and climate extremes.

The big picture: By Thursday night, some Weather Service and NOAA offices were already cutting back on their services.

• A bulletin from NWS headquarters announced that staffing shortages would prevent the twice-daily weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska. These provide information on upper air conditions to fine-tune computer models that help predict the weather across the U.S.
• The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory announced its public communications would be on "indefinite hiatus" due to staffing shortages.

Among the deepest of NOAA's cuts was to the Office of Space Commerce. It licenses commercial satellites and issues warnings to satellites to prevent them from getting too close to one another in orbit, among other national security-related tasks.

• Multiple layoffs hit the NWS' Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for keeping the agency's computer models operating.

Zoom in: The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters; NOAA's satellites division; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J.; and divisions on the oceans side of the agency.

• GFDL and the research office at NOAA both do cutting-edge climate science work, including developing computer models to project global warming.
• Sources at NOAA who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs. A spokesperson for the NWS declined to comment on personnel matters but told Axios: "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."
• "NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the spokesperson said.

As of Friday, NOAA's travel cards had been cut, halting agency travel, and purchase cards were reduced to $1 except for about a dozen. There were also reports of leases for office space being canceled.

Friction point: The cuts infuriated the tight-knit weather and climate community, which depends on NOAA for raw data, forecast guidance, computer modeling, hurricane research flights and watch and warning information.

• Many meteorologists took to social media to vent their frustrations. Some warned the cuts could cost lives as severe weather season approaches.
• "The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service, is profoundly alarming," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a statement posted to X.
• "The NWS is a critical public utility, and it would be extremely difficult to rebuild if torn down. This is not, in short, an acceptable setting in which to 'move fast and break things,'" he said.

Threat level: Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who was laid off from his role in NOAA Communications, told Axios that the cuts to NWS in particular will be harmful.

• "We will be less prepared for the next disaster and the disaster after that," Di Liberto said. "We're asking an already short-staffed agency to deal with increasing extremes with less people. Burnout will be real."
• About 300 members of the NWS may have been affected, one source said, about 7% of the service. Even before the cuts, the NWS in particular was short-staffed.
• As of February, NOAA had about 12,000 full-time employees, according to its website.

What they're saying: Lawmakers denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy.
• "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.

Zoom out: The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

• The layoffs have mainly hit employees with less than two years of service.
• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster its headcount and add more computing power.

What we're watching: How the cuts — and potentially deeper staff reductions to come — affect the accuracy and timeliness of NOAA's extreme weather warnings as well as its climate products.

It'll be a long, uncertain road from Friday's signing of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal to development of resources and revenue that President Trump covets.

The big picture: The pact would create a joint reconstruction fund, partly used to reinvest in Ukrainian minerals, energy and infrastructure projects.

• Specifics of the U.S. stake and logistics remain to be ironed out.

Driving the news: Ukraine has deposits of graphite, lithium, rare earths, uranium, and more.

• The country's geological survey and resource ministry estimates, for instance, that it includes 6% of global graphite reserves.

Reality check: New projects have long, sometimes multidecade development timelines, even in countries that have not lost crucial infrastructure. Other hurdles in Ukraine include:

Knowledge gaps. Resources estimates are incomplete and often quite old for some commodities, analysts say.

• "[T]here is very limited data on whether Ukraine's rare earth elements and other strategic materials are commercially viable to mine," Center for Strategic and International Studies scholars write in a primer.

Security risks could impede development. Private firms will likely be wary unless they're confident that risks are tolerable.

• Up to 40% of Ukraine's overall critical mineral deposits are in areas currently under Russian occupation, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence analyst George Ingall tells the WSJ.

Extraction is just one piece of the puzzle. Access to raw materials doesn't fully achieve resource security goals when China still dominates processing and refining.

• "For a deal to really de-risk the US minerals supply chain, more infrastructure is likely needed to ensure that the newly acquired mineral ores don't flow toward Beijing," Reed Blakemore of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center said in a post.

The bottom line: The deal could improve the icy Trump-Zelensky relationship and bolster the U.S. interest in a peaceful Ukraine. But future development remains highly speculative.

President Trump has proposed abolishing the EB-5 visa for immigrants willing to invest in the U.S., and replacing it with a "gold card" that, he said, could see enough demand to eliminate the national debt.

Why it matters: For all of Trump's debt-busting dreams, realistic demand for any such program is likely to be in the thousands of people, not the millions.

• Indeed, according to experts, when it comes to "golden visas" there could be more demand from Americans looking to emigrate than there is from non-Americans looking to immigrate.

Where it stands: The gold card is designed to replace the EB-5 investor visa, which gives out green cards in return for investment in the U.S. economy.

• The minimum cost of an EB-5 ranges from $800,000 to $1.05 million, substantially all of which takes the form of an investment and thus doesn't reduce the applicant's net worth.
• Between 2017 and 2024, an average of 8,823 EB-5s were issued per year, per the EB-5 visa data dashboard.

Between the lines: Trump's proposed gold card costs five times as much as an EB-5 — $5 million — and the money would go straight to the government, where it could help reduce the national debt.

Flashback: Both the U.K. and Australia have tried similar "golden visa" programs. Both were wound down after interest peaked at a few hundred applications per year, said London School of Economics professor Kristin Surak, author of "The Golden Passport: Global Mobility for Millionaires."

• "If it's a donation, the interest will be in the very low thousands per year," Surak told Axios.

Zoom in: Anybody with a "gold card" would be obligated to pay U.S. tax on their global income, said Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, author of "The Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks the World."

• That makes U.S. tax residence significantly less attractive to the global ultra-rich than most other jurisdictions.
• Besides, Abrahamian noted, the trade in golden visas from places like Portugal and Malta, both E.U. member states, has been going on for long enough that most ultra-rich people who want one already have one.

Zoom out: When it comes to the global market in golden visas, "one of the most remarkable changes in the past few years is the huge increase in interest from U.S. citizens" looking to gain residence in countries like Portugal, according to Surak.

• "People are looking to secure access to the U.S.," she said, "but U.S. citizens are also looking to hedge their bets and secure a Plan B elsewhere."

The bottom line: It's very unlikely that there would be more demand for the gold card than there is right now for the EB-5, to say nothing of enough for Trump's $50 trillion goal.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told Axios in an interview on Thursday that she felt "uncomfortable" hearing President Trump and other senior U.S. official in recent weeks "repeating Russian narratives and talking points" about the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The former Estonian prime minister has the seemingly impossible job of managing the EU's relationship with Trump's Washington. She received an ominous signal on shortly after arriving in D.C. on Tuesday, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled their meeting planned for the next morning.

Driving the news: The State Department claimed that was due to "scheduling reasons," but European diplomats think the cancellation was a political decision by the Trump administration.

• "You have to ask him why he cancelled," Kallas told Axios. She said she'd had a good meeting with Rubio at the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago and expected to meet him at the G7 next month.
• On Wednesday, Trump claimed at the top of his Cabinet meeting — with Rubio at his side — that the EU was formed "to screw" the U.S. over trade, and reiterated a threat of 25% tariffs.

The big picture: Senior Trump officials have been going after the EU on trade, circumventing it on Ukraine, and intervening in the bloc's internal politics.

• Kallas admits she's concerned the new administration is distancing itself from Europe and aligning itself with what she called "new friends."
• "The statements made towards us are quite strong. The statements regarding Russia are very friendly. It is a change," said Kallas, who has a history of hawkish rhetoric toward Russia.
• Kallas noted that the U.S. voted against its European allies at the UN this week and with countries like "North Korea, Russia, Belarus, Mali, Nicaragua and Haiti" in opposing a resolution to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What she's saying: Kallas argued the Trump administration's engagement with Russia is giving President Vladimir Putin what he wants: international legitimacy.

• "Russia wants to be back around the international table like nothing has happened. If we allow that to happen, then we will see more wars, not only in Europe," she warned.
• Asked whether she thinks Trump is trying to divide the EU, she said it's unclear what is motivating him: "His statements regarding Europe are very strong, and the question is, why are they so strong? I mean, where is it all coming from?"

State of play: On Thursday, at the top of his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump attacked the EU again.

• "We do have problems with the EU because they've tariffed us. They sue our companies. We don't like the way they're treating our people. We don't like the way they're treating our companies," he said.
• Trump also falsely claimed the U.S.-EU trade deficit was $350 billion. The deficit was $236 billion for goods in 2024, and considerably less if services are factored in. Kallas said the deficit was just 3% of all trade and thus "not a lot."

Between the lines: Kallas was representing the EU at the Munich conference this month where Vice President Vance accused European countries of blocking free speech and not respecting election results because they are afraid of their own people.

• Kallas tried to downplay the significance of Vance's comments. "I think it's more important what the Europeans do, rather than what the Americans say," she stressed.
• At the same time, she argued Vance was out of bounds to weigh in on domestic political issues, and also had his facts wrong.
• "It was very surprising. Why did he attack and say that we have a problem with freedom of expression when this is one of the fundamental values of European Union? I refuse to accept that criticism, because it's just simply not true. In the U.S. you have two parties, in the European Parliament we have eight different parliamentary groups. From the left, from the right, from the center. At the same time, in Russia, you don't have free elections and you don't have free expression," she said.

What to watch: The EU and its members states are closely following the Trump administration's dialogue with Russia and are concerned Trump and Putin will cut a deal on Ukraine behind their backs.

• "They can talk with Putin all they want, but in order for any kind of deal to be implemented, they need the Europeans, and if the Europeans or Ukrainians do not agreed to this, then any deal would not work," Kallas said.

Go next: Trump softens tone on Zelensky ahead of key meeting

After two weeks of verbal attacks, President Trump softened his tone on Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of a key meeting between the leaders Friday.

Why it matters: Zelensky will visit the White House to sign an economic cooperation deal that gives the U.S. access to Ukrainian minerals and other natural resources, such as oil and gas.

• The visit comes amid a push by the Trump administration for a ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and Russia to be followed by peace negotiations.

Catch up quick: Last week, U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war without inviting Ukraine to participate.

• After Zelensky complained that the U.S. has been working with Russia behind its back, Trump replied with public accusations against the Ukrainian president, falsely suggesting Ukraine started the war and that Zelensky is deeply unpopular with his own people.
• Zelensky responded by accusing Trump of living in a "disinformation space" created by the Kremlin.
• Trump fired back by calling Zelensky "a dictator without elections" — a term he never used for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Zoom in: At the top of his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer Thursday, Trump admitted his relations with Zelensky became "testy" over the last few weeks while they negotiated the minerals deal, but walked back calling him a "dictator."

• "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that. Next question," Trump said.
• Trump was later asked the same question during a press conference with Starmer and dodged it.
• "We will have a very good meeting tomorrow morning — I have a lot of respect for him," he said of Zelensky.

State of play: The efforts to launch peace talks to end the war in Ukraine were at the center of Trump's meeting with Starmer. Trump held similar discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.

• After the meeting with Starmer, Trump said the next step is reaching a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine: "We are working on ending the war in Ukraine. It is moving along rapidly. It's either going to happen fairly soon or not at all."
• Starmer praised Trump for his diplomatic push but also stressed that any such deal should be "tough and fair" and must not serve Putin's interests.
• "We have to get it right. We have to win the peace ... it can't be peace that rewards the aggressor," he said, adding that Ukraine must help shape any such agreement.
• Starmer said the U.K. is ready to "put boots on the ground and planes in the air" as part of future security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump has endorsed the idea of a European peacekeeping force but said U.S. troops won't take part.

The international order forged after World War II is imploding, squeezed on all sides by the return of strongmen, nationalism and spheres of influence — with President Trump leading the charge.

Why it matters: Trump is openly scornful of international institutions and traditional alliances. Instead, he sees great opportunity in a world dominated by superpowers and dictated through dealmaking.

Between the lines: Trump's approach is based, according to U.S. officials, in "realism" — and the belief that "shared values," international norms and other squishy concepts can never replace "hard power."

• "The postwar global order is not just obsolete," Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared at his confirmation hearing last month. "It is now a weapon being used against us."

Where the U.S. once helped enforce global norms, such as on trade, Trump is undercutting them.

• Trump's first term posed newfound threats to 20th-century alliances and structures — NATO, the World Trade Organization, even the UN.
• A second Trump term could render them virtually obsolete.

Zoom in: The frailty of the rules-based order was exposed this week on the preeminent global stage built to support it.

• At the UN General Assembly on Monday, the U.S. voted against a resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine on the third anniversary of the war.
• It was the first time since 1945 that the U.S. sided with Russia — and against Europe — on a resolution related to European security, according to the BBC's James Lansdale.
• Nearly all other Western leaders see Russia as a rogue state and an aggressor. Trump sees a potential partner.

Zoom out: For Europe, which has relied on the U.S. to guarantee its security for the last eight decades, this isn't just a wakeup call: It's an existential challenge that throws the entire transatlantic alliance into question.

• Germany's conservative leader Friedrich Merz said after his election victory Sunday that his "absolute priority" is to rapidly strengthen Europe so that it can "achieve independence from the USA."
• "I would never have believed that I would have to say something like that on television," Merz admitted. "But after Donald Trump's statements last week, it is clear that the Americans ... are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

Trump officials have expressed open contempt toward Europe on a range of issues beyond collective defense, including trade, migration, free speech and culture.

• "The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it, and they've done a good job of it," Trump said in the Oval Office this week as he floated 25% tariffs on EU goods.
• "There's a new sheriff in town," Vice President Vance announced in a fiery speech in Munich this month that painted globalism as the downfall of European society.

The big picture: In today's multipolar world, the U.S., Russia and China are all racing to secure their strategic interests and solidify — or expand — their spheres of influence.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin dreams of reconstituting the Soviet bloc and has tried to do so by force — invading Ukraine and meddling in elections across the Western world.
• China, an economic and military superpower under Xi Jinping, is watching Ukraine carefully as it ponders whether to invade Taiwan and cement Xi's legacy through "reunification."

Trump, meanwhile, has broken sharply with his predecessors by calling for the expansion of U.S. territory — potentially to include Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal and even the Gaza Strip.

• He's also floated grand bargains with both Beijing and Moscow on everything from trade to nukes.
• This is great power competition in its purest form, and it's the direction that Trump — to the deep consternation of small and mid-sized countries — seems intent on taking the world.

The bottom line: What's old is new again.

• 80 years ago, three great powers — the U.S., U.K. and the Soviet Union — gathered in what is now Russian-occupied Crimea to decide the fate of a European continent ravaged by war.
• There at Yalta, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Josef Stalin set the terms for what ultimately led to the Iron Curtain, fueling the decades-long Cold War.
• "I think that's Donald Trump's mindset. It's certainly Putin's mindset. It's Xi Jinping's mindset. It's not Europe's mindset," former MI6 chief Alex Younger warned last week. "That's the world we're going into."

Vice President Vance will give a keynote address at a tech summit in Washington next month, underscoring the Trump administration's focus on artificial intelligence and advanced computing.

Why it matters: Vance, a former venture capitalist, has helped draw Silicon Valley's tech sector more closely than ever to the nation's capital.

• Vance is a laissez-faire evangelist for American tech dominance. "Excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry," Vance warned Europeans in a speech earlier this month.
• It's a message he'll likely drive home March 18 at the American Dynamism Summit, which is in its third year and organized by the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

The big picture: Tech influence in federal policy now rivals or exceeds Wall Street's, and not just because of Elon Musk's constant presence in Trump's administration.

Between the lines: Tech sector venture capitalists successfully advocated for Vance to become Trump's running mate last year. They helped fuel Trump's campaign and his inauguration with tens of millions of dollars.

Zoom out: Trump has made a slew of tech hires, many of them tied to Vance. Three days after taking office, Trump issued an executive order appointing tech entrepreneur David Sacks as the administration's "AI and Crypto Czar" to "establish United States leadership in digital financial technology."

• "A lot of founders and investors in Silicon Valley have a deep skepticism about Big Tech," Sacks told Axios in a written statement.
• "They want to innovate and create, rather than censor and consolidate," Sacks said. "The president shares that view. So does the vice president, who has a strong personal network in that world going back to his business career, which is how they can bring everybody together."

Aside from Vance, the summit's speakers include:

• Gwynne Shotwell, president & COO, SpaceX
• Christian Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril
• Qasar Younis, cofounder & CEO, Applied Intuition
• Gen. Bryan P. Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command
• Shyam Sankar, chief technology officer, Palantir Technologies
• Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.)
• Ali Ghodsi, cofounder, president, & CEO, Databricks

The Department of Justice released more than 100 pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein on Thursday. The documents released by Attorney General Pam Bondi include flight logs, a redacted contact book and masseuse list and an evidence list.

Zoom out: The Trump administration is moving to release documents in a range of high-profile cases, such as the JFK assassination.

• Flashback: President Trump was himself photographed with Epstein on multiple occasions and called him a "great guy" in a 2002 interview, but has not been implicated in any of Epstein's illegal behavior and has downplayed their relationship.

Bondi is facing scrutiny as to why the documents did not include more new information and has blamed the FBI.

Epstein documents released

Zoom in: Read the documents Bondi released in the files below.

Bondi's letter to FBI director Kash Patel

Editor's note: This file has been updated with additional documents.

The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is having a huge impact on cervical cancer prevention among young women, a U.S. government report published Thursday suggests.

Why it matters: The CDC report shows that rates of precancerous lesions among women aged 20-24 screened for cervical cancer dropped by about 80% from 2008 to 2022. The report comes just days after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who once called the HPV vaccine "dangerous and defective" — was confirmed as health and human services secretary.

• During questioning from senators ahead of his confirmation, Kennedy said he was divesting his financial interest in legal challenges against Gardasil, an HPV vaccine made by Merck.

By the numbers: Human papillomavirus is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S. and the virus is responsible for some 10,800 cases of cervical cancer every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

State of play: The CDC report found drops in precancerous lesion rates in other age groups screened, falling 37% among women who were 25 to 29 years old for the same period.

• "Observed declines in cervical precancers are consistent with HPV vaccination impact and support Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations to vaccinate children against HPV at age 11–12 years with catch-up through age 26 years," the CDC said.
• "The data are consistent with a considerable impact from the U.S. HPV vaccination program on cervical precancers, with the largest decreases in the youngest age group for which benefit of vaccination would first be observed," it added.
• "As vaccinated women age into older age groups, declines in cervical precancers are expected."

Zoom in: The CDC noted limitations, including that cervical cancer screening numbers were estimated using claims, survey data, and ecological trends rather than individual records.

• However, the CDC said "trend analyses such as these are routinely used to evaluate the impact of vaccination programs, and no other plausible explanations for the decreases in precancers have been identified."

The bottom line: The CDC findings add to growing global evidence that the uptake vaccine is helping to cut cases of cervical cancer.

• Cancer-prevention researcher Jane Montealegre told AP the rise in uptake of the safe, effective HPV vaccine can be credited for the substantial drop in precancerous lesions.
• "This should reassure parents that they're doing the right thing in getting their children vaccinated against HPV," added Montealegre, of MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas.

Go deeper: FDA cancels meeting to pick flu vaccine strains for next winter

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details from the report.

Mexico extradited 29 people accused of being involved in drug cartels to the U.S. on Thursday, the Department of Justice announced.

The big picture: The move is a part of President Trump's vow to crack down on cartels for what he called in an executive order a "campaign of violence and terror" that saw him designate eight drug cartels as global terrorist organizations last week.

Driving the news: The 29 people taken in U.S. custody Thursday face charges in various districts relating to racketeering, drug-trafficking, murder, illegal use of firearms, money laundering and other crimes, per the DOJ.

• They include leaders and managers of drug cartels recently designated as "Foreign Terrorist Organizations" and "Specially Designated Global Terrorists," like the Sinaloa Cartel.
• Among them is infamous drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, who was wanted in the U.S. for allegedly being involved in the kidnapping and killing of an undercover DEA agent.
• "These defendants are collectively alleged to have been responsible for the importation into the United States of massive quantities of poison, including cocaine, methamphetamine, fentanyl, and heroin, as well as associated acts of violence," the DOJ said.

What they're saying: "As President Trump has made clear, cartels are terrorist groups, and this Department of Justice is devoted to destroying cartels and transnational gangs," Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement.

Go deeper: Who are the Latin American cartels the U.S. labeled as terrorist organizations

Elon Musk called Thursday for retired air traffic controllers to consider returning to work amid staffing shortages — but a federal law means doing so isn't so simple.

The big picture: Hiring shortages have long plagued air traffic controllers in already stressful roles overseeing critical airspace, but the job is under more scrutiny following a deadly midair collision at Reagan National Airport and several other close calls between aircraft at other U.S. airports.

• "There is a shortage of top notch air traffic controllers," Musk posted on X Thursday. "If you have retired, but are open to returning to work, please consider doing so."

Context: Despite Musk's request, U.S. law requires that air traffic controllers retire by "the last day of the month" in which they turn 56. The Transportation secretary can exempt controllers "having exceptional skills and experience" from automatic separation — but only until that person is 61.

• Air traffic controllers must also pass annual medical examinations with strict physical requirements, like having 20/20 vision, sufficient hearing and proper blood pressure levels.

Driving the news: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Thursday announced a plan to "supercharge" controller hiring that would shave steps off the hiring process and increase starting salaries.

Catch up quick: Duffy said in an interview on Fox News earlier this month that he plans to "make an offer" to air traffic controllers to let them stay longer, past the mandatory retirement age of 56.

• But the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, the union that represents the country's air traffic controllers, told Flying Magazine Duffy's suggestion is not the answer to filling thousands of shortages.
• "The solution to the ATC staffing crisis is a long-term commitment to hiring and training and the retention of the experience of all the highly skilled, highly trained air traffic controllers," the union said, noting in the next year, just dozens of air traffic controllers across 35 facilities will reach 56.

Zoom out: The Federal Aviation Administration has tried to bolster recruitment efforts amid ongoing staffing and retention issues, but applying to be a controller and becoming one are two very different things.

• It's a long, strenuous training process that can take up to three years, according to a 2023 inspector general report. And given the mandatory retirement age, the FAA must grapple with constant attrition.
• On top of that, the Trump administration's upheaval of the federal government and deep cuts could further complicate recruitment, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick notes.

Catch up quick: Hundreds of FAA employees were fired earlier this month amid the large-scale reductions that have rocked the federal workforce.

• But Duffy clarified that "[z]ero air traffic controllers and critical safety personnel" were let go.

Go deeper: Air traffic controllers union hits back at Trump DEI comments

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a plan to increase starting salaries.

President Trump and Elon Musk's campaign to shrink the federal government will be felt far outside the nation's capital — in deep red states as well as blue.

Why it matters: Some GOP lawmakers are already hearing from constituents and raising the alarm about the haphazard way federal employees are getting canned.

Zoom in: Federal civilian jobs make up 21% of all nonfarm employment in Washington, D.C. — far more than any state, according to government data analyzed by Pew Research Center.

• The cuts will undoubtedly affect D.C., but more than 80% of federal workers live outside of the metro area, according to Partnership for Public Service.
• Of the 10 states with the greatest percentage of federal employment, six voted for President Trump and five voted for then-Vice President Harris. (Maine and Utah are tied for 10th.)
• Alaska has the fourth-highest share of federal workers. Republican Lisa Murkowski, one of the state's senators, has been outspoken about her concerns with DOGE.

Zoom out: When looking at the total number of federal workers, Washington, D.C., has the most overall, at 162,000. When looking by state, California has the most, with more than 147,000 as of last March, per Pew's data.

• California is followed by Virginia, Maryland, Texas and Florida.
• Some federal workers are also in U.S. territories or overseas. Roughly 270,000 workers are not counted as they have their locations masked for security purposes, mostly in the intelligence space.

OpenAI on Thursday released an early version of GPT-4.5, a significant update to the large language model underlying ChatGPT that OpenAI says will be better at recognizing patterns and drawing connections.

Why it matters: The release marks the next evolution of OpenAI's flagship model lineage that has been an industry front-runner since the start of the generative-AI boom.

Driving the news: This is OpenAI's largest model yet — though the company declined to offer details about its size or the computing resources it took to train it.

• GPT-4.5 should hallucinate less, follow instructions better and deliver interactions that feel more natural.
• The "research preview" version of GPT 4.5 that was released Thursday supports real-time search and image and file uploads but not voice mode, video or screen sharing.
• GPT-4.5 will be made available starting today for subscribers of the $200-per-month ChatGPT Pro and next week for other paid subscribers, including the $20-per-month ChatGPT Plus service. It's also being made available to those who pay to use OpenAI's API.

Yes, but: OpenAI noted that because it is a larger model, GPT-4.5 is more expensive to deliver.

• "GPT‑4.5 is a very large and compute-intensive model, making it more expensive⁠ than and not a replacement for GPT‑4o," it said.

What they're saying: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote in a post on X, "Good news: it is the first model that feels like talking to a thoughtful person to me... this isn't a reasoning model and won't crush benchmarks. It's a different kind of intelligence and there's a magic to it I haven't felt before."

Between the lines: Until last year, much of the progress in large language models came from increasing the size of the underlying model and the amount of data used to train it.

• But that approach, known as "unsupervised learning" or "pretraining," has begun to offer diminishing returns. So the focus has switched to "reasoning" — that is, letting models take more time and use more computing resources at the time of a query to deliver a better answer.

GPT-4.5 represents OpenAI's first major move in some time at improving its AI using the former approach, scaling up the pretraining phase.

• OpenAI says the result is that GPT-4.5 has more and broader world knowledge and should have increased reliability.

What they're saying: "We're sharing GPT‑4.5 as a research preview to better understand its strengths and limitations," OpenAI said in a blog post. "We're still exploring what it's capable of and are eager to see how people use it in ways we might not have expected."

What's next: OpenAI hinted it will add reasoning improvements on top of GPT-4.5.

• The company's "roadmap" announcement earlier this month, pointing the way toward the eventual release of GPT-5, called 4.5 "our last non-chain-of-thought model."
• "We believe reasoning will be a core capability of future models, and that the two approaches to scaling — pre-training and reasoning — will complement each other," OpenAI said. "As models like GPT‑4.5 become smarter and more knowledgeable through pre-training, they will serve as an even stronger foundation for reasoning and tool-using agents."

House Republicans notched a major legislative victory this week when they passed their budget resolution. Now comes the hard part: Crafting a fiscal package that doesn't doom them in the 2026 election.

Why it matters: Some Republicans already see signs that the backlash to the Trump administration's "efficiency" efforts is spilling over into opposition to their legislative plans.

• One Republican moderate, speaking on the condition of anonymity to give candid thoughts about political concerns surrounding their party's marquee legislation, told Axios: "It could be trouble."
• "We saw what happened in 2018," the lawmaker said, referring to the midterm year in which voter anger over the GOP's legislative efforts helped Democrats flip more than 40 House seats.

Driving the news: The House voted Tuesday to adopt House Republicans' budget resolution, with all but one House Republican voting in favor of the measure and every Democrat opposing it.

• The resolution — a first step toward the hulking budget reconciliation bill Republicans hope to pass — allows $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, offset by $2 trillion in spending cuts.
• The vote came after a tortured process in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) strained to bring together right-wing hardliners who want greater spending cuts and centrists fearful of cuts to programs like Medicaid.

State of play: After the vote, some vulnerable Republicans were quick to distance themselves from the notion that the budget measure does anything more than provide a conceptual framework for the final bill.

• "Last night's vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws," Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) said in a strident statement Wednesday morning.
• Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), in a CNN interview, insisted there is "zero mention of cutting Medicaid" in the budget resolution — even as it calls for the Energy and Commerce Committee to seek $880 billion in cuts, some of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

Between the lines: Republicans have been barraged the last week and a half by angry constituents at town halls and protests outside their district offices complaining about DOGE's layoffs and cuts to federal programs.

• While DOGE has been the primary target of that voter blowback, House Republicans say they have also faced plenty of flack over the prospective benefit cuts in the GOP's fiscal package.
• "Most of the concern now is over ... DOGE," said a second House Republican who spoke anonymously, "but there's also, maybe not too far behind that, the message that they are trying to get across on reconciliation."

Zoom in: Despite voting for the budget measure, moderate and swing-district House Republicans told Axios they are drawing clear red lines on what they will support in a final package.

• "If that doesn't match with what our constituents and our district is looking for, then we won't be voting for that product," said a third House Republican.
• A fourth told Axios: "I have told my leadership ... there are scores of Republicans who don't want to go further [on Medicaid] than requiring work for able-bodied adults, getting the illegals off and rooting out waste, fraud and abuse."
• "If it goes further than that," they said, "the bill is probably dead."

Yes, but: Conservatives are equally emphatic the bill must include substantial enough cuts to Medicaid to offset the increases in spending — creating a seemingly unworkable dilemma for Johnson.

• Insufficiently deep Medicaid cuts are "probably a nonstarter," said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.).
• Burlison went as far as to say Republicans "should cut more" than the budget provides for, telling Axios: "I just had people in my office say, 'You didn't cut enough.'"

What to watch: Democrats are eager to exploit Republicans' struggles as the process of crafting the final package begins.

• "Health care's gone for everyone ... we just won back the House," exulted Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) coming out of the budget vote on Tuesday.
• Democrats' House Majority PAC is circulating a memo on the vote, first shared with Axios, titled: "House Republicans Ignore Constituents, Vote For Trump-Musk Agenda."