They're mere tremors at this point, not an earthquake. But worries about the outlook for U.S. economic growth are starting to mount.

Why it matters: On-again, off-again tariffs on major trading partners have added uncertainty to the business outlook, making hiring and investment decisions more complex.

• Consumers whose incomes depend on the federal government — whether as employees, contractors or benefit recipients — face the brunt of Trump administration cutbacks. This risk could make them more cautious in their spending.

State of play: Evidence these forces will restrain overall growth is only being seen in soft data so far — surveys of business and consumer sentiment, for example. The hard data shows little evidence of deterioration in spending, investment or hiring.

• But new growth worries have coincided with a steep drop in Treasury yields since the start of the year, which tends to reflect bond investors' growth expectations.

What they're saying: "With 3 million federal employees potentially worrying about their jobs and 6 million federal contractors worrying about their jobs, the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.," wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, in a note out Thursday morning.

• "We remain bullish on the economic outlook, but we are very carefully watching the incoming data for signs if this is an inflection point for the business cycle," he added.

Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said in a speech Thursday morning that "discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth."

• "This presents the possibility that the Fed could have to balance inflation risks against growth concerns."

Of note: Clients of one major bank are asking if it's time to think about using the word "recession" again.

• "As US data soften, clients have started asking us about the prospect of a US recession," wrote Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Marc Giannoni in a note Wednesday. "We think the odds are still low, but have clearly risen."
• "A US recession remains improbable, but is no longer unthinkable in the coming quarters," they added.

Reality check: Over the last few years, amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical strife, predictions of a major slowdown or recession have repeatedly been wrong.

• The new administration's policies also may be creating tailwinds from deregulation and the prospect of tax cuts.

The bottom line: The U.S. economy is a mighty tanker ship, almost always moving forward. But the number of warning signs that it could be pushed off-course is rising.

Investors are questioning whether Tesla's recently weakened stock and slipping sales are due to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement and online presence.

Why it matters: A vocal CEO can cast a halo or dark cloud over the company they lead, impacting their ability to attract customers, employees and investors.

Zoom in: Musk has generated endless press coverage and social media attention as the owner of X and leader of the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

• More than 300,000 media stories have been written about Musk and his DOGE activities since Jan. 1, according to Muck Rack data.
• Also since the start of the year, stories mentioning Musk and DOGE have had a readership of more than 387 million, with most of the spikes around legal proceedings and budget cut recommendations, per Memo data shared with Axios.

The big picture: CEOs across industries have become more proactive about communication — whether by embracing community engagement across social channels, modernizing earnings reports or conducting more personal, nontraditional media interviews.

State of play: Musk's political activities have triggered a partisan divide regarding consumers' views of Tesla.

• Republican favorability of Tesla hit an all-time high this month, while Democratic favorability dropped to an all-time low. This strongly suggests Musk's Trump ties are influencing consumer sentiment across party lines, per Morning Consult Intelligence data.

By the numbers: 49% of Americans hold negative views of Musk and 32% of U.S. buyers "would not consider" buying a Tesla, up from 27% a year ago, per Morning Consult.

• Repeat Tesla buyers in blue states dropped from 72% in 2023 to 65% in 2024, according to CNN.
• Meanwhile, Tesla sales are down 45% year over year in Europe and 15% year over year in China, per a recent Barron's report.

Reality check: Increased competition and macroeconomics could also be playing a part in the EV maker's tumbling sales numbers.

💭 Thought bubble from Axios' auto expert Joann Muller and energy reporter Ben Geman: Tesla has grown up and now faces the same trials as legacy automakers.

• What is unusual is bumper stickers on your customers' cars that say things like "Anti-Elon Tesla Club." One has to wonder what Musk is doing to protect Tesla's brand while he's busy attacking Washington's bureaucracy.

What they're saying: "I am completely convinced that the CEO's reputation goes along with the success of the company," says Paul Argenti, a communications professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. "A well-respected CEO allows you to have a stronger management team, a clear strategic vision for the organization and they significantly influence how the company is perceived. There's no question about that."

• "It's really important to understand just how critical that senior person is as the spokesperson for the organization, the person who is responsible for and associated with the strategy of the company, and the symbol for how the company is going to perform."

Yes, but: A company's brand equity shouldn't be solely tied to one individual executive, says Argenti.

• "You don't want the CEO to be the only source of brand equity for the company," he says. "That's a disaster, and we've seen that happen before with examples like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs or Martha Stewart."
• Tesla did not return Axios' request for comment.

What to watch: All CEOs are tasked with sharing their company's transformation stories, ensuring confidence and providing stability during these uncertain times.

• The power of strategic communications could come into play for those individual CEOs leading corporate turnarounds — such as Brian Niccol at Starbucks, Kelly Ortberg at Boeing and Gil West at Hertz.

More on Axios: Tesla sales fell in 2024, missing Elon Musk's EV growth target

Leading a federal agency is an around-the-clock, full-time job, but several top Trump administration officials have picked up side hustles: leading other federal agencies at the same time.

Why it matters: At least four officials have juggled leadership posts at multiple agencies or organizations at once. Several of those have also been targeted for deep budget and staffing cuts at the direction of the White House and its Department of Government Efficiency.

• The trend serves as another example of how Trump 2.0 has re-shuffled the federal bureaucracy.

State of play: While it's not rare for acting officials to fill posts during the Senate confirmation process, Trump's approach has broken with past precedent, said Jenny Mattingley, the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service's vice president of government affairs.

• "Dual-hatting," as she calls it, does sometimes occur in presidential administrations, Mattingley told Axios.

Yes, but: "Particularly at the beginning of an administration, you have acting officials who are in that agency — not across multiple heads of agencies," she said.

• "Being triple-hatted makes it really hard to get in and actually see the nuts and bolts" of what an agency does, Mattingley said.
• Trump's nominees have moved "fairly quickly" through the Senate, underlining the fact that the arrangements "appears to be more of an intentional choice," she added.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, National Archivist and head of USAID

Marco Rubio is balancing three different posts:

• He was easily confirmed as the Secretary of State, a role that's seen him travel across Latin America, engage in talks over ending the Russia-Ukraine war and navigate a fragile Middle East ceasefire.
• At the same time, he also took on the title of acting director of the U.S. Agency for International Development. That change coincided with the dramatic DOGE-led dissection of the humanitarian aid organization. Rubio said at the time that the administration had "no choice but to bring this thing under control."
• While traversing the globe, Rubio is also serving as the acting archivist of the National Archives and Records Administration, an independent agency Trump has long disliked after it alerted to the Justice Department of his alleged mishandling of classified documents. Trump fired the previous head archivist this month.
• Trump did, however, appoint Jim Byron, the the president and CEO of the Richard Nixon Foundation, to handle the "day-to-day" needs at the National Archives.

One stunning stat: Based on historical staffing levels, that would mean Rubio is overseeing a combined 90,000 employees across three agencies before factoring in DOGE's mass layoffs.

Kash Patel, running the FBI and ATF

FBI Director Kash Patel, who was narrowly confirmed by the Senate in late February, is to many experts and critics a controversial pick for the main job he was nominated to do.

• But he was also tapped to lead another federal law enforcement agency: He sworn in Monday as the acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Associated Press reported.
• The White House, in a fact sheet on Trump's executive order directing a review of second amendment infringements, argued the Biden administration had "weaponized" the ATF through regulations.
• That means Patel would concurrently be overseeing the 5,000-plus-person ATF workforce and the 38,000 people who work for the FBI.
• It's unclear what the administration plans to do with the agency after the unprecedented move of placing the FBI director at its helm.

Russ Vought, Trump's budget chief and consumer protection head

Russ Vought, Trump's budget chief, is leading several of the White House's key initiatives chipping away at the federal government.

• In doing so, he also reportedly took over as acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the financial watchdog that the White House railed against as a "woke, weaponized arm of the bureaucracy."
• Trump fired former CFPB leader Rohit Chopra, cutting short his term that was not supposed to end until next year.
• As acting director, Vought issued directives earlier this month freezing much of the agency's work — though the administration said in a court filing Monday that there "will continue to be a CFPB."

Zoom out: Trump earlier this month nominated Jonathan McKernan to take the reins from Vought, so his tenure at the agency may be short-lived.

• McKernan is set to testify Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
• Counting Chopra, McKernan —if confirmed — would be the fourth person in the post since Trump took office: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was first designated as acting CFPB director before Vought filled the slot.
• CFPB's website, which on its homepage displays an error code, still has Bessent listed as acting director.

Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: Trump's boundary-busting provocations

The quality of global democracies hit an all-time low in 2024, and the U.S. continues to be seen as a "flawed democracy," according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's annual Global Democracy Index report.

The big picture: More than one-third of the world population now lives under authoritarian rule, according to the index.

• The overall global Democracy Index score has fallen from 5.52 in 2006 to a historic low of 5.17 in 2024, down from 5.23 in 2023.
• The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale, based on ratings for 60 indicators that are grouped into five categories: electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation and political culture.

Driving the news: Even among regions that improved or saw no change in 2024, discontented populations increasingly turned to anti-mainstream or insurgent parties.

• The U.S., which was downgraded from a "full democracy" to a "flawed democracy" in 2016, saw some positive developments in 2024, the report found, including the smooth election and political engagement. But low trust in media and institutions, political gridlock, lobbyist influence and sharp inequalities persist.
• The score for North America — where Canada is the only "full democracy" — remained unchanged.
• But the unpopularity of current prominent political leaders threatens to undermine North America's score moving forward, the index cautioned, noting that heightened cynicism toward electoral processes and possible declines in voter participation could trigger a fall.

"If insurgents come to power and fail to improve governance and deliver tangible improvements for citizens, there is a risk that disaffection and political [polarization] will grow," Joan Hoey, the director of the Democracy Index, said in a statement.

Zoom out: Western Europe was an outlier as the only region in the world that saw its average index score improve (by 0.01 points).

• Norway ranks highest in the region — and in the world — with an overall score of 9.81.
• France was downgraded from a "full democracy" to a "flawed democracy" in 2024 amid a year of political unrest and deteriorating confidence in government.

South Korea, which was among the top 10 "worst performers" in the index last year, similarly slipped into the "flawed democracy" category after the chaos that unfurled late last year following impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's shock martial law declaration.

Yes, but: Despite the general decline, some democracies are on the rise: The Czech Republic, Estonia and Portugal moved up to become "full democracies."

Go deeper: U.S. slips to new low in international corruption index

The U.S. will raise tariffs another 10% on China on Tuesday, citing the flow of illegal drugs into the country, President Trump said.

Why it matters: It's an escalation of the growing trade war with one of the U.S.' largest trading partners.

Driving the news: Trump announced the new tariffs in a Truth Social post, and said scheduled tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would go into effect Tuesday as well.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

CBS anchor Gayle King and Lauren Sánchez, fiancé of Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos, are heading to space in a Blue Origin flight this Spring with four other women, King announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The all-women crew will be the highest-profile mission yet for Blue Origin, which has become one of the foremost players in the commercial space industry.

Driving the news: A video announcement narrated by King on Thursday's "CBS Mornings" show revealed that the mission will take place some time this Spring.

• The other women joining the mission include: pop star Katy Perry, aerospace engineer Aisha Bowe, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen and film producer Kerianne Flynn.

The big picture: Sánchez's sojourn to space has been long-anticipated. The vice chair of the Bezos Earth Fund, Sánchez has for years spoken about her plan to helm an all-women Blue Origin mission.

• The mission will also mark King's first trip into space. The news anchor interviewed Bezos back in 2021 after he returned from Blue Origin's first crewed mission.

State of play: Earlier this week the company announced that it had successfully completed its 10th crewed mission, as well as its 30th flight for its New Shepard program.

• The company hit another milestone last month when it launched its New Glenn rocket, marking its first orbital flight.

Go deeper: Bezos vs. Musk: Space tycoons with dueling visions for humanity's survival

Most politicians agree on three truths: We have a spending problem (too much), a tax problem (too high or too low), and a debt problem (way too much).

• Yet the typical response is: Make all three worse.

Why it matters: This truism sits at the very heart of Republicans' fight over a grand budget deal. They're trying to convince their members, and the American public, that you can take in less money (taxes), spend more on defense — and somehow reduce deficits without touching the programs that cost the most.

Washington is a city of magical thinking — both parties practice it. Hence, insane deficits under Presidents Biden, Trump, Obama and Bush. We'll grow our way of it! Even if we never do.

• Washington is not a city of math thinking. It's too inconvenient to apply common-sense arithmetic. Instead, you get wonky "dynamic scoring," "budget windows" and "future growth."
• A true tell: The solution is always in a future that never comes.
• Our favorite new D.C. math: Republicans are backing word and math fog called "current-policy baseline," which allows them to "score" lower taxes as costing nothing. Why? Because they're just extending expiring tax cuts. Make sense? That's the magic of D.C. math.

The Trump/Republican budget plan is no different. It's basically a bet that lowering taxes further will juice so much growth that our math problems will ease or even disappear.

• We walked you through the spending reality in our last column. This is our attempt to explain clinically the reality of the current tax system and how Republicans want to attack it with up to $5 trillion in tax cuts.

Let's start with the indisputable facts:

• Fact 1: Republicans want to cut taxes by a minimum of $4.5 trillion over 10 years (and by a maximum topping $5 trillion). That's mainly extending President Trump's first-term Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — which cut income taxes for most American families, and reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%.
• Fact 2: Some tax cuts — like encouraging businesses to invest more in equipment and infrastructure — can juice the economy.  That's the beating heart of supply-side tax thought.
• Fact 3: Other tax cuts don't spur growth. Trump wants to exempt tip income and overtime pay from taxation, and loosen a cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes. Those provisions, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes, would shift the tax burden away from specific classes of people (servers, people who put in a lot of overtime, and residents of high-tax states) and leave less room for pro-growth tax cuts.
• Fact 4: Trump has tossed tariffs into the mix. In his mind, big tariffs mean other nations will pay the cost of running the U.S. government. Business leaders, mainstream economists and many Republican lawmakers view them as destructive to growth, and ultimately borne by U.S. businesses and consumers. The reason: Higher tariffs typically result in higher costs. If foreign aluminum costs 20% more, someone has to eat the costs — either the company, or you.
• Fact 5: Trump offers conflicting guidance on what he wants in terms of taxes — and any cuts to pay for all of this. He talks of returning more savings to people with tax rebates ... balancing the budget (a mathematical impossibility absent gutting social programs) ... and never touching those actual social programs.
• Fact 6: You could solve the deficit problem by raising taxes enough to erase it. Republicans hate the idea. But Democrats have long held that higher taxes on rich people and corporations could help wipe out deficits without touching social programs. No shot of that in this Congress. But it's an option!

The big picture: That's why the tax fight could consume Congress for all of 2025. It's truly epic in scale and complexity. As TD Cowen policy expert Chris Krueger puts it: A behemoth tax bill is impossible — yet inevitable.

• If Republicans fail to move a bill, taxes on American families will rise back to their 2017 levels next year — something every elected Republican views as unacceptable.
• Figuring out the details, and passing them through narrow congressional majorities, is the hard part. Democrats are likely to vote in lockstep against the legislation, seeing it as primarily benefiting the very wealthy. If the legislation is paired with Medicaid cuts, as House Republicans envision, that would further energize Democratic opposition.

How taxes work: The IRS collects around $5 trillion in annual taxes from over 200 million taxpayers. Filers who make less than $50,000 pay little to nothing in income taxes after credits and exemptions.

• The difference between what we spend and what we take in = our annual deficit. Total annual deficits rolled together over time = total debt ($36.2 trillion today).

Republicans have long argued tax cuts juice the economy with growth, creating more taxable income and wealth. Some do; some don't.

• But keep in mind: Since Trump signed his 2017 taxes into law, deficits are up 248%! So any growth they helped achieve has been swamped by spending. Hence, America's financial jam.
• The deficit is now running about 7% of GDP — roughly triple the economy's growth rate. Every year that continues, the government will be in a deeper financial hole.

The bottom line: Senate Republicans privately predict they'll punt on taxes for a bit and instead ... spend more. They want $340 billion in increased spending for defense border security and deportation efforts, TD Cowen's Krueger writes in his Washington Research Group newsletter.

• How will they pay for that? Tax cuts and spending cuts. When? Later!

Axios' Neil Irwin contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: "The four-way tug-of-war that explains Republicans' tax challenge," by Axios' Neil Irwin.

Ahead of Sunday's 97th Academy Awards, we dove into the Oscars' database to find out where past Best Actress and Best Actor winners were born.

The big picture: Hollywood may be the movie capital of the world but many of the industry's most celebrated actors aren't originally from there.

By the numbers: Just six of the 86 men who have won Best Actor and five of the 87 women who earned Best Actress were born in the Los Angeles area.

• The fine print: Multiple-time winners like Daniel-Day Lewis (London) and Katharine Hepburn (​​Hartford, Connecticut) were counted once for their respective cities.

State of play: Los Angeles takes a backseat to the New York City metropolitan area, birthplace of 11 Best Actors and seven Best Actresses.

• Other cities with multiple winners included Philadelphia, native to three Best Actor and two Best Actress winners, and San Diego, where three Best Actor winners were born.

Zoom out: By state, California led the way with 13 Best Actor and nine Best Actress recipients.

• New York state is tied with California with 13 Best Actor winners and was second with seven Best Actresses.

Zoom (further) out: 31 Best Actor winners were born outside the United States, including 17 from England.

• Meanwhile, 35 Best Actress winners hail from other countries, with 10 coming from England.

Go deeper: Where to watch 2025 Oscar-nominated movies

Last week, President Trump threatened tariffs on pharmaceuticals if manufacturers don't relocate operations to the U.S. On Wednesday, the CEO of Eli Lilly stood with Trump's commerce secretary in Washington, D.C., to announce a $27 billion plan to build four manufacturing "mega-sites" in the U.S.

Why it matters: The commitment illustrates the dance much of Big Pharma is engaged in as it tries to make inroads with a new administration bent on reshoring business activity and reducing dependence on China.

The big picture: Reshoring pharmaceutical manufacturing would be a shift for the industry, which still sources most drug ingredients from overseas and has seen its global supply chains buckle from disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Now, political winds from Washington could force a reckoning.

• Hanging over it all is Trump's focus on cracking down on economic competition from China. CEO David Ricks said his company's expansion would prove key to expanding U.S. capabilities in synthetic chemistry and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers.
• The pharmaceutical giant — whose products include the blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound — focused on its role in economic growth, saying its plan will create 3,000 jobs, as well as 10,000 construction jobs.
• "This is a national announcement, one that will catalyze American health, economic growth and global competitiveness when we see a significant ripple effect, a greater opportunity that will flow to thousands of Americans and their local communities," Ricks said.

State of play: Lilly has a wide footprint in China and most recently announced a $200 million expansion of a manufacturing site in Suzhou. It also partnered with contract research firm WuXi AppTec on the active ingredient in anti-obesity drugs and a drug for lowering blood lipids, per Fierce Pharma.

• Lilly has been on a global expansion binge, launching multibillion-dollar plant projects in Germany and Ireland, per Fierce Pharma.
• The new plants announced Wednesday will come on top of a $3 billion upgrade to an injectables facility it bought in Wisconsin, as well as two new sites in North Carolina and Indiana.
• The company would not disclose how much of Lilly's manufacturing will occur at these sites, but said the new facilities won't replace others elsewhere.

What they're saying: Ricks credited Trump's tax cuts from 2017, calling them "fundamental to Lilly's domestic manufacturing investments."

• When asked about the pain caused by tariffs, he said the company hopes medical supplies are exempt because that adds cost in the near term.
• "It's clear to everyone, including us here today, that the administration intends to use tariffs as a tool to drive the outcomes they're looking for to bring manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. In that sense, it's a stick or it's a punishment," Ricks said in response to a reporter's question.
• "But we point out here today, as a company, that actually tax reform was the carrot," he said.

Between the lines: The pharmaceutical industry has been positioning itself as a key partner for Trump in addressing chronic illness.

Yes, but: The Trump administration's pressure on the pharma industry to bring production to the U.S. may represent a shift from Trump's first term, when lowering drug prices and increasing price transparency were the stated priorities, Anna Chorniy, a health economist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, told Axios in an email.

• Bringing production to the U.S. could ultimately result in higher production costs, which could be passed on to consumers, she said.
• Efforts to onshore drug ingredients for security purposes don't do much if they're not targeted at generic drugs, of which the vast majority come from China, said Mariana Socal, associate professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University.

Amazon founder and Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos last summer privately urged Donald Trump to pick Doug Burgum as Trump's vice president, saying he'd be an "excellent" choice.

Why it matters: Bezos' phone conversation with Trump in July — detailed in my forthcoming book, "Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump's Return to Power" — was a sign that Bezos was engaging with Trump on political issues months earlier than previously reported.

• It wasn't until late October — three months later — that Bezos spiked the Post editorial page's planned endorsement of Kamala Harris for president, and his outreach to Trump came into focus.

Zoom in: The latest indication of Bezos' Trump-ward drift came Wednesday, when he announced that the Post's progressive-leaning opinion page would shift its mission to promote "personal liberties and free markets."

• The move was praised by Trump allies such as Elon Musk but created an uproar at the Post, where David Shipley, the opinion editor, resigned.

Flashback: Since he killed the Harris editorial, Bezos — like Musk, Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and other tech titans whose fortunes can be swayed by the president's decisions — has continued to publicly warm to Trump.

• On Nov. 6, the day after the election, Bezos praised Trump for an "extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory."
• The following month, Bezos dined with Trump at the president's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. And in January, Bezos and his fiancée, Lauren Sánchez, attended Trump's inauguration, to which Amazon had donated $1 million.

The seeds of the Bezos-Trump alliance were planted in the July phone call. During the call, Bezos praised Trump for how he'd handled the attempt on his life at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

• Bezos also told Trump that Burgum would be a great choice for VP, according to two people with knowledge of the call.
• Burgum, who was North Dakota's governor at the time and like Bezos had made a fortune in the tech world, helped arrange for the call.
• Burgum earlier had told Trump that Bezos wanted to speak with him, and had given Bezos' contact information to Trump aides so they would recognize the billionaire's number when he called.
• Trump ultimately chose Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his VP nominee. Burgum is now Trump's Interior secretary.

Bezos' overture to Trump was a shift in their once-chilly relationship.

• Bezos, who also owns a rocket company, criticized Trump for his rhetoric during the 2016 campaign and joked about sending Trump into space.
• Trump tore into Bezos throughout his first presidency. Trump, who's been divorced twice, even chided Bezos for getting divorced. Trump was deeply angered by the Post's critical coverage of him, and derided the newspaper as the "Amazon Washington Post."
• Trump at one point during his first term advocated for then-Postmaster General Megan Brennan to raise shipping rates on Amazon packages, which she pushed back on.

What they're saying: Representatives for Trump and Bezos did not respond to requests for comment. Nor did a spokesperson for the Washington Post.

This story has been corrected to say Sánchez is Bezos' fiancée (not his wife).

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is privately pushing Democrats to fill their guest lists next week with people affected by federal job cuts and the funding freeze.

The big picture: Senate Democrats are planning to bring guests to President Trump's joint speech to Congress whose backgrounds connect to the results from the president's first 100 days in office.

• DOGE: The guests are expected to include a child with a genetic spinal condition who is alive because of an NIH program that was recently cut; an Army vet close to retirement who was fired from Veterans Affairs, and a fired Department of Agriculture employee who worked in rural development.
• GOP budget plans: Democrats plan to bring a person who relies on Medicaid to survive.

Between the lines: Democrats are still trying to figure out what their opposition should look like.

• Schumer's team told Democratic offices it wants their guests to get "influencer engagement" ahead of the speech.
• Senate Democrats have turned to social media as one of their main frontiers in opposing Trump's agenda.

Go deeper: Jeffries' plan to dampen Trump's first big speech

The Pentagon is moving to disqualify transgender service members from the military within 30 days, per a policy memorandum included in a Wednesday court filing.

The big picture: The memo that builds on existing Trump administration restrictions that target transgender troops states the military will consider granting waivers on a "case-by-case basis," but only if there's "a compelling government interest in retaining the service member that directly supports warfighting capabilities."

Driving the news: The Trump administration was responding on Wednesday to a lawsuit filed in D.C. on behalf of six transgender service members who are challenging the legality of President Trump's January executive order targeting transgender troops.

• The suit contends the order that states that the federal government will recognize only two sexes, male and female, and which calls on the Pentagon to formulate a policy that would target transgender service members is unconstitutional.

Zoom in: "Service members who have a current diagnosis or history of, or exhibit symptoms consistent with, gender dysphoria will be processed for separation from military service," states the policy, which echoes language similar to that used in Trump's order.

• Service members who seek to obtain a waiver must show they never tried to transition, according to the Pentagon.
• They must also demonstrate "36 consecutive months of stability in the Service member's sex without clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational, or other important areas of functioning."

Between the lines: Gender dysphoria is defined as distress related to gender incongruence.

• The number of transgender people serving on active duty in the military was estimated to be up to 8,000, per a 2020 study published by the NIH that notes the actual number may be greater due to factors including fear of disclosure.

Flashback: Trump rescinded on his first day in office a policy allowing trans people to serve, implemented by his predecessor, former President Biden.

Go deeper: Senate sets up vote to restrict trans women from women's sports

The Trump administration is axing 92% in foreign assistance-related grants to save nearly $60 billion as part of a budget cuts drive across all federal agencies, the State Department confirmed on Wednesday night.

The big picture: It plans to terminate nearly 10,000 contracts and grants given out by the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), per a Wednesday court filing from administration attorneys.

• It's the administration's latest effort to cap U.S. spending abroad, after a federal judge this month ordered the administration to resume $1.9 billion in foreign aid payments it had frozen — which the Supreme Court temporarily paused on Wednesday night.
• The impacts of the freeze on aid have been felt by organizations across the globe, as have the firings at USAID, despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing waivers for "life-saving humanitarian assistance programs."

Driving the news: Nearly 5,800 USAID awards and another 4,100 from the State Department will be cut, the filing states.

• Some 500 USAID awards and about 2,700 State Department ones will remain.
• "USAID evaluated 6,200 multi-year awards with $58.2 billion in value remaining," a State Department spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

Zoom in: The State Department conducted a 90-day review of foreign assistance at the State Department and USAID that saw it examine 9,100 grants valued at $15.9 billion, the Washington Free Beacon first reported.

• "At the conclusion of a process led by USAID leadership, including tranches personally reviewed" by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, State Department the spokesperson said "nearly 5,800 awards with $54 billion in value remaining were identified for elimination as part of the America First agenda."

What we're watching: Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts granted a stay and requested aid groups that sued the administration respond by 12 noon Friday ET.

• Meanwhile, the State Department and USAID is set to undergo a process in consultation with Congress to reform the way the U.S. delivers foreign assistance.

Go deeper: Supreme Court pauses order on Trump administration foreign aid payments

The Supreme Court seemed receptive to a woman's argument Wednesday she was discriminated against at work because she is heterosexual.

Why it matters: A ruling that allows the woman, Marlean Ames, to pursue the claim would open the door for men, white people, and heterosexual people to sue for job discrimination in the future.

• The court's receptivity to Ames' case comes as the Trump administration has purged DEI across the government, triggering legal fears for corporations, schools, and local governments across the country.
• Ames' case also comes in the shadow of the court's 2023 ruling that overturned the use of affirmative action in college admissions.

What they're saying: The court's conservative supermajority and at least a few of the liberal justices seemed open to hearing the case.

• "We are in radical agreement," Justice Neil M. Gorsuch said about the court's consensus that the same legal test should apply to all discrimination claims — including ones from straight, white, and male workers.

Zoom in: Ames was an employee at the Ohio Department of Youth Services who filed a job discrimination lawsuit in 2020 claiming that she was discriminated against in favor of gay co-workers.

• In one instance, she claims that she was removed from her job as an administrator in favor of a younger gay man.
• In another, she said she was unfairly passed over for a promotion in favor of a gay woman who was less qualified.

Context: Almost half of US appeals courts require that members of majority groups (heterosexual, in this case) claiming discrimination meet an additional burden of proof that their employer is an "unusual" case of discrimination against majorities in what's known as the "background circumstances standard."

• Before Ames' suit went to trial, lower courts ruled against her, finding that she was unable to meet that standard. Ames argues that the standard is unconstitutional.
• Conservative legal groups, the Biden administration, and the Trump administration have all supported Ames' argument.
• Ashley Robertson, a lawyer for the Trump administration, said on Wednesday that the underlying appeals court's ruling was essentially, "Tell me your race, and I will tell you how much evidence you need to produce."

The other side: The NAACP Legal Defense and Education Fund argued in a friend-of-the-court brief in the case that different standards were appropriate for majority and minority groups because minorities are historically the target of discrimination.

The White House still plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, at least for now — despite comments from President Trump on Wednesday that raised hopes of another delay.

Why it matters: The Trump administration has announced a slew of tariffs that could take effect on their respective deadline, or ultimately be pushed off — a prime backdrop for confusion.

The intrigue: That confusion was on full display in the immediate whipsaw in financial markets.

• The prospect of another delay for the 25% tariffs outlined in a White House executive order earlier this month — which had already been paused for 30 days — sent the U.S. dollar sharply lower against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, before recovering.

Catch up quick: Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the 25% tariff on imports from North American allies would take effect on April 2.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick quickly added that the "big transaction" would be April 2, but the "fentanyl-related" tariffs would be re-evaluated at the end of the 30-day pause on March 4.

Context: April 2 is the deadline for reciprocal tariffs that Trump previously announced, a senior White House official clarified to Axios.

• That official added that the 25% tariffs specific to Canada and Mexico were still on pause until next week, as originally thought. The administration has not made a decision whether to extend that pause or not.
• Lutnick told reporters that the Canadian and Mexican officials had to "prove to the president" that they had made progress on tighter border controls.

What to watch: The Commerce Department was previously ordered to draw up plans to impose tariffs on nations that the administration decides has unfair trading practices, a report due on April 1.

• That would allow Trump to put any tariffs in place the following day. Canada and Mexico could get hit in this order, too.

That is separate from another order that raises tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to 25%, set to take effect on March 12.

• Trump said Tuesday that the Commerce Department would investigate whether to slap tariffs on copper imports.
• Trump on Wednesday told reporters that the administration was also looking into tariffs on European imports, particularly autos — though it was unclear if that was a new announcement or would come with the pending Commerce study.
• He's also hinted at future tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, cars and lumber, but without setting any dates.

The bottom line: So far the Trump administration has implemented, not just announced, tariffs of 10% on all imports from China.

• If the administration makes good on some or all of its other tariff threats, keeping up with Trump trade policy might get that much harder.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday night temporarily paused a lower judge's order that would've required the Trump administration to restart $1.9 billion in foreign aid payments by midnight.

Why it matters: In the first case the Supreme Court has intervened in since the Trump administration moved to overhaul the federal government and make drastic budget cuts, Chief Justice John Roberts granted a stay and requested aid groups that sued the administration to respond by 12 noon Friday ET.

• Last week, the high court declined to immediately intervene in a lower court decision to block the administration from firing Hampton Dellinger, the head of independent watchdog agency the Office of Special Counsel, postponing its decision until the lower court's ruling expired.

Driving the news: U.S. District Court Judge Amir Ali had given the administration until 11:59pm Wednesday to resume payments for contracts and grants related to foreign aid work contracted by the State Department and USAID.

• Acting solicitor general Sarah Harris asked the justices to vacate the midnight deadline, which she called an "arbitrary timeline."
• Justice Department lawyers said in a filing earlier Wednesday that the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals moved to dismiss that "regardless whether this Court stays the district court's order, agency leadership has determined that the ordered payments 'cannot be accomplished in the time allotted by the' district court."
• Two groups, the Aids Vaccine Advocacy Coalition and the Global Health Council, are suing the administration after President Trump signed a Jan. 20 executive order pausing U.S. foreign aid amid a wider, DOGE-led cost-cutting overhaul of the federal workforce and agencies.

Go deeper: Trump administration to cut 92% of USAID foreign aid contracts

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details on the leadup to the order signed by Chief Justice John Roberts.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) won a game of brinksmanship with his own party on budget reconciliation. Now he's prepared to do the same with Democrats on government funding, lawmakers and aides tell us.

Why it matters: House Republicans are increasingly confident they can avoid a government shutdown without any Democratic support.

• "I think it demonstrated we can do things on our own," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters on Wednesday.
• Going alone would be unprecedented but not impossible. The current funding bill runs through March 14.

🙏 Johnson will need strong buy-in from the White House that President Trump will back his approach.

• After a White House meeting Wednesday, Johnson said a spending stopgap is "becoming inevitable."

Between the lines: The appropriation process has been complicated by Elon Musk's and DOGE's efforts to cut money that Congress has obligated to departments and agencies.

• That's caused a Democratic uproar and raised the possibility they won't give Republicans the votes they could need to keep the government open.
• But Johnson said Wednesday that Republicans shouldn't expect to get DOGE cuts written into a spending stopgap.
• The speaker told reporters the "most reasonable" thing is to avoid a shutdown by pursuing a "clean" CR.

Zoom in: House and Senate GOP leaders met with their appropriators Wednesday morning to discuss their next steps.

• Republicans are united, for now, on a single point: they will not give in to Democratic demands to block Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
• "The Democrats have had completely unreasonable conditions assigned to this," Johnson said. "They want us to limit the power of the executive branch."
• "That's a no-go," Cole said. "We're not moving."
• "The Democrats need to be working with us on a realistic basis," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios.

The bottom line: Republicans will need some eight Democratic votes in the Senate to break a filibuster and pass a government funding bill.

• In the House, they have always relied on Democratic votes to fund the government.
• House Republicans passing a funding bill without Democratic help is unprecedented but not impossible.

Hamas transferred to Israel the bodies of four hostages on Thursday morning local time as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office said.

The big picture: The return of the bodies completes the release of 33 hostages as part of the first phase of the deal.

• The 42-day truce is due to end on Saturday, but the deal stipulates the ceasefire will continue as long as the parties continue to negotiate on the next phase.

Driving the news: Hamas and Israel announced on Tuesday that they have reached an understanding that will end the crisis that erupted when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed the release of 600 Palestinian prisoners last Saturday.

• The parties agreed that Hamas would return the bodies of the four Israeli hostages a day ahead of the original plan.
• In return, Israel would release the 600 prisoners and several other prisoners who were supposed to be released this week.
• Hamas also agreed not to conduct any public ceremony around the return of the bodies, Israeli officials said.

Situation report: The bodies of the hostages were transferred via the Red Cross without any ceremonies.

• Egyptian officials assisted in the mediation and were on the ground during the exchange, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office said.
• As the bodies were being transferred, Israel started the process of releasing some of the prisoners, with the rest expected to be released after the four bodies of the hostages had been identified.

What's next: An Israeli delegation is expected to leave on Thursday for Doha or Cairo to start negotiating the next step with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, an Israeli official told Axios.

• The Israeli official said the goal is to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas on an extension of another 42 days to the ceasefire during which more Israeli hostages and more Palestinian prisoners will be released.
• White House envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to the region as soon as Sunday to join the negotiations.
• President Trump said at a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday that the transfer of the bodies is the end of the first phase of the deal and the beginning of the second phase.
• "Now Israel will have to decide what it wants to do," he said.

The price of eggs is expected to rise by 41.1% this year as the bird flu continues to rip through the nation's agricultural economy, the federal government projected in a new report.

Why it matters: That's more than double the 20% increase predicted in January.

• Egg prices have been climbing to record highs daily and shortages have been growing, which has led stores to limit how many eggs any one shopper can buy.

The big picture: The outbreak of the highly pathogenic avian influenza that begun in 2022 has recently intensified.

• In January, it affected 18.8 million egg laying hens, the highest monthly total of the three-year crisis, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

By the numbers: The USDA's Economic Research Service provided a range for its 2025 price-growth prediction of between 15% to 74.9%.

• Egg prices already increased 13.8% in January after rising by 8.4% the prior month, the report said.
• Prices this January were 53% higher than they were 12 months earlier.

State of play: Restaurants, including Waffle House and Denny's, have added temporary egg surcharges because of high egg prices and shortages.

• But McDonald's has no plans to add an egg fee and is expanding its breakfast menu and offering a deal on Egg McMuffins this Sunday.
• Michael Gonda, the fast-food giant's McDonald's North America chief impact officer, wrote on LinkedIn Tuesday that "unlike others making news recently, you definitely WON'T see McDonald's USA issuing surcharges on eggs, which are 100% cage-free and sourced in the U.S."

Trump admin plan to "make eggs affordable again"

What's next: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said today in a WSJ op-ed that the Trump administration "will invest up to $1 billion to curb this crisis and make eggs affordable again."

• "We are working with the Department of Government Efficiency to cut hundreds of millions of dollars of wasteful spending," Rollins wrote. "We will repurpose some of those dollars by investing in long-term solutions to avian flu, which has resulted in about 166 million laying hens being culled since 2022."
• Rollins noted prices should "start coming down maybe this spring, this summer as we work to implement some of these bigger picture solutions."
• "Once we're past Easter, then we'll hopefully have some really good solutions for the American people," Rollins said.

The intrigue: If egg prices are still high for Easter, expect families to turn to alternatives like painting and hiding potatoes, an idea that sprouted in 2023 because of high prices.

More from Axios:

• Tooth fairy payouts drop to lowest rate in years
• Crafts retailer Joann going out of business; 19,000 jobs lost
• Peter Rawlinson out as CEO of luxury EV maker Lucid

The Washington Post's Opinion Section editor David Shipley resigned after owner Jeff Bezos mandated the section prioritize two topics, personal liberties and free markets, and not publish dissenting views in those areas.

Why it matters: The changes will dramatically reshape The Post's opinion coverage, which has focused on a broad array of issues, especially politics and policy, for decades.

• "This is a significant shift, it won't be easy, and it will require 100% commitment — I respect his decision," Bezos wrote in a note to staff Wednesday. "We'll be searching for a new Opinion Editor to own this new direction."

The big picture: The new announcement, following a controversial move by Bezos to kill presidential endorsements last year, shows how much Bezos is willing to assert his power to shape public opinion as the owner of one of the country's largest newspapers.

• The Post lost thousands of subscribers last year over Bezos' endorsement decision. Members of the Opinion Board resigned in protest.

Zoom in: Bezos said the Post will cover other topics "but viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others."

• "There was a time when a newspaper, especially one that was a local monopoly, might have seen it as a service to bring to the reader's doorstep every morning a broad-based opinion section that sought to cover all views. Today, the internet does that job," Bezos wrote.
• "I am of America and for America, and proud to be so. Our country did not get here by being typical. And a big part of America's success has been freedom in the economic realm and everywhere else. Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion — and practical — it drives creativity, invention, and prosperity," he added.
• "I'm confident that free markets and personal liberties are right for America. I also believe these viewpoints are underserved in the current market of ideas and news opinion. I'm excited for us together to fill that void."

Between the lines: Bezos said he offered Shipley the opportunity to lead the section under the new guidelines, but "after careful consideration, David decided to step away," he wrote.

State of play: Bezos' announcement quickly drew backlash from journalists online, including at The Post.

• "Massive encroachment by Jeff Bezos into The Washington Post's opinion section today — makes clear dissenting views will not be published or tolerated there," The Post's chief economics reporter Jeff Stein posted on X. "I still have not felt encroachment on my journalism on the news side of coverage, but if Bezos tries interfering with the news side I will be quitting immediately and letting you know."

Zoom out: The vast majority of America's largest newspapers by circulation didn't endorse a presidential candidate this year, marking a stark departure from previous election cycles and a turning point in the history of American opinion journalism.

• Opinion sections become a major source of contention within newsrooms during the first Trump administration, with journalists at major newspapers urging their bosses to reevaluate their policies.

What to watch: Efforts by the Trump administration to scrutinize media have forced media, entertainment and tech companies to make difficult decisions about how far they will go to defend their editorial values.

• Most notably, ABC in December settled a lawsuit filed against it by Donald Trump, even though some legal experts said ABC could've won the case.
• CBS News faces pressure to settle a $20 billion lawsuit with Trump, as its parent Paramount awaits regulatory approval to merge with Skydance Media.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Bezos is mandating the section prioritize coverage of personal liberties and free markets (not publish articles on those topics only).