House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) won a game of brinksmanship with his own party on budget reconciliation. Now he's prepared to do the same with Democrats on government funding, lawmakers and aides tell us.

Why it matters: House Republicans are increasingly confident they can avoid a government shutdown without any Democratic support.

• "I think it demonstrated we can do things on our own," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters on Wednesday.
• Going alone would be unprecedented but not impossible. The current funding bill runs through March 14.

🙏 Johnson will need strong buy-in from the White House that President Trump will back his approach.

• After a White House meeting Wednesday, Johnson said a spending stopgap is "becoming inevitable."

Between the lines: The appropriation process has been complicated by Elon Musk's and DOGE's efforts to cut money that Congress has obligated to departments and agencies.

• That's caused a Democratic uproar and raised the possibility they won't give Republicans the votes they could need to keep the government open.
• But Johnson said Wednesday that Republicans shouldn't expect to get DOGE cuts written into a spending stopgap.
• The speaker told reporters the "most reasonable" thing is to avoid a shutdown by pursuing a "clean" CR.

Zoom in: House and Senate GOP leaders met with their appropriators Wednesday morning to discuss their next steps.

• Republicans are united, for now, on a single point: they will not give in to Democratic demands to block Musk's cost-cutting efforts.
• "The Democrats have had completely unreasonable conditions assigned to this," Johnson said. "They want us to limit the power of the executive branch."
• "That's a no-go," Cole said. "We're not moving."
• "The Democrats need to be working with us on a realistic basis," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios.

The bottom line: Republicans will need some eight Democratic votes in the Senate to break a filibuster and pass a government funding bill.

• In the House, they have always relied on Democratic votes to fund the government.
• House Republicans passing a funding bill without Democratic help is unprecedented but not impossible.

Hamas transferred to Israel the bodies of four hostages on Thursday morning local time as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, the Israeli prime minister's office said.

The big picture: The return of the bodies completes the release of 33 hostages as part of the first phase of the deal.

• The 42-day truce is due to end on Saturday, but the deal stipulates the ceasefire will continue as long as the parties continue to negotiate on the next phase.

Driving the news: Hamas and Israel announced on Tuesday that they have reached an understanding that will end the crisis that erupted when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to delay the release of 600 Palestinian prisoners last Saturday.

• The parties agreed that Hamas would return the bodies of the four Israeli hostages a day ahead of the original plan.
• In return, Israel would release the 600 prisoners and several other prisoners who were supposed to be released thus week.
• Hamas also agreed not to conduct any public ceremony around the return of the bodies, Israeli officials said.

Situation report: The bodies of the hostages were transferred via the Red Cross without any ceremonies.

• Egyptian officials assisted in the mediation and were on the ground during the exchange, the Israeli prime minister's office said.
• As the bodies were being transferred and Israel started the process of releasing some of the prisoners, with the rest expected to be released after the four bodies of the hostages have been identified.

What's next: An Israeli delegation is expected to leave on Thursday to Doha or Cairo to start negotiating the next step with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, an Isralei official told me.

• The Israeli official said the goal is to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas on an extension of another 42 days to the ceasefire during which more Israeli hostages and more Palestinain prisoners will be released.
• White House envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to the region as soon as Sunday to join the negotiations.
• President Trump said at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday that the transfer of the bodies is the end of the first phase of the deal and the beginning of the second phase.
• "Now Israel will have to decide what it wants to do," he said.

The price of eggs is expected to rise by 41.1% this year as the bird flu continues to rip through the nation's agricultural economy, the federal government projected in a new report.

Why it matters: That's more than double the 20% increase predicted in January.

• Egg prices have been climbing to record highs daily and shortages have been growing, which has led stores to limit how many eggs any one shopper can buy.

The big picture: The outbreak of the highly pathogenic avian influenza that begun in 2022 has recently intensified.

• In January, it affected 18.8 million egg laying hens, the highest monthly total of the three-year crisis, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

By the numbers: The USDA's Economic Research Service provided a range for its 2025 price-growth prediction of between 15% to 74.9%.

• Egg prices already increased 13.8% in January after rising by 8.4% the prior month, the report said.
• Prices this January were 53% higher than they were 12 months earlier.

State of play: Restaurants, including Waffle House and Denny's, have added temporary egg surcharges because of high egg prices and shortages.

• But McDonald's has no plans to add an egg fee and is expanding its breakfast menu and offering a deal on Egg McMuffins this Sunday.
• Michael Gonda, the fast-food giant's McDonald's North America chief impact officer, wrote on LinkedIn Tuesday that "unlike others making news recently, you definitely WON'T see McDonald's USA issuing surcharges on eggs, which are 100% cage-free and sourced in the U.S."

Trump admin plan to "make eggs affordable again"

What's next: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said today in a WSJ op-ed that the Trump administration "will invest up to $1 billion to curb this crisis and make eggs affordable again."

• "We are working with the Department of Government Efficiency to cut hundreds of millions of dollars of wasteful spending," Rollins wrote. "We will repurpose some of those dollars by investing in long-term solutions to avian flu, which has resulted in about 166 million laying hens being culled since 2022."
• Rollins noted prices should "start coming down maybe this spring, this summer as we work to implement some of these bigger picture solutions."
• "Once we're past Easter, then we'll hopefully have some really good solutions for the American people," Rollins said.

The intrigue: If egg prices are still high for Easter, expect families to turn to alternatives like painting and hiding potatoes, an idea that sprouted in 2023 because of high prices.

More from Axios:

• Tooth fairy payouts drop to lowest rate in years
• Crafts retailer Joann going out of business; 19,000 jobs lost
• Peter Rawlinson out as CEO of luxury EV maker Lucid

The Washington Post's Opinion Section editor David Shipley resigned after owner Jeff Bezos mandated the section prioritize two topics, personal liberties and free markets, and not publish dissenting views in those areas.

Why it matters: The changes will dramatically reshape The Post's opinion coverage, which has focused on a broad array of issues, especially politics and policy, for decades.

• "This is a significant shift, it won't be easy, and it will require 100% commitment — I respect his decision," Bezos wrote in a note to staff Wednesday. "We'll be searching for a new Opinion Editor to own this new direction."

The big picture: The new announcement, following a controversial move by Bezos to kill presidential endorsements last year, shows how much Bezos is willing to assert his power to shape public opinion as the owner of one of the country's largest newspapers.

• The Post lost thousands of subscribers last year over Bezos' endorsement decision. Members of the Opinion Board resigned in protest.

Zoom in: Bezos said the Post will cover other topics "but viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others."

• "There was a time when a newspaper, especially one that was a local monopoly, might have seen it as a service to bring to the reader's doorstep every morning a broad-based opinion section that sought to cover all views. Today, the internet does that job," Bezos wrote.
• "I am of America and for America, and proud to be so. Our country did not get here by being typical. And a big part of America's success has been freedom in the economic realm and everywhere else. Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion — and practical — it drives creativity, invention, and prosperity," he added.
• "I'm confident that free markets and personal liberties are right for America. I also believe these viewpoints are underserved in the current market of ideas and news opinion. I'm excited for us together to fill that void."

Between the lines: Bezos said he offered Shipley the opportunity to lead the section under the new guidelines, but "after careful consideration, David decided to step away," he wrote.

State of play: Bezos' announcement quickly drew backlash from journalists online, including at The Post.

• "Massive encroachment by Jeff Bezos into The Washington Post's opinion section today — makes clear dissenting views will not be published or tolerated there," The Post's chief economics reporter Jeff Stein posted on X. "I still have not felt encroachment on my journalism on the news side of coverage, but if Bezos tries interfering with the news side I will be quitting immediately and letting you know."

Zoom out: The vast majority of America's largest newspapers by circulation didn't endorse a presidential candidate this year, marking a stark departure from previous election cycles and a turning point in the history of American opinion journalism.

• Opinion sections become a major source of contention within newsrooms during the first Trump administration, with journalists at major newspapers urging their bosses to reevaluate their policies.

What to watch: Efforts by the Trump administration to scrutinize media have forced media, entertainment and tech companies to make difficult decisions about how far they will go to defend their editorial values.

• Most notably, ABC in December settled a lawsuit filed against it by Donald Trump, even though some legal experts said ABC could've won the case.
• CBS News faces pressure to settle a $20 billion lawsuit with Trump, as its parent Paramount awaits regulatory approval to merge with Skydance Media.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Bezos is mandating the section prioritize coverage of personal liberties and free markets (not publish articles on those topics only).

President Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday empowering DOGE to scrutinize how federal agencies spend money, the latest expansion of Elon Musk's cost cutting powers.

Why it matters: Trump, who hours earlier backed Musk's email to federal employees asking them to outline what they accomplished at work last week, is giving the billionaire SpaceX founder extra teeth to upend government through his work on DOGE.

Driving the news: The executive order asks agencies to work with a DOGE team lead to review contracts and grants, and cut or modify them "where appropriate," per the White House.

• It also asks agencies to build a system to "record every payment" spent on the agency's contracts and grants and provide a "brief, written justification for each payment."
• The executive order also asks agency heads to work with their DOGE team lead to build a system to record approval for federally-funded travel or conferences — and provide written justification for conferences or non-essential travel.
• The order also requires federal agencies to identify federal properties that are no longer needed that can be disposed of.

The big picture: The executive order comes as Musk continues to dramatically transform the federal government, just over one month into Trump's second term in office.

• Musk has taken sweeping steps to try to cut the federal workforce, sometimes sparking confusion among employees and the agencies themselves.
• Approximately half of the federal workforce has answered Musk's email asking them to detail their accomplishments, the White House said Tuesday.
• The White House earlier on Wednesday sent an email to federal agencies, warning them to prepare for mass layoffs.

Go deeper: Trump: Federal employees who didn't respond to Musk email are on firing "bubble"

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) instructed committee staff to refer to the Israeli-occupied West Bank by its Hebrew name Judea and Samaria, according to a copy of an internal committee memo obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The international community, including the U.S. government, refers to the territory Israel occupied in 1967 as the West Bank and doesn't recognize Israeli sovereignty there. Roughly 3 million Palestinians and half a million Jewish settlers live in the West Bank.

• Changing the terminology the committee uses is a symbolic move that reflects the support among many Republicans in Congress for recognizing Israeli sovereignty there.
• The occupation in the West Bank and the Jewish settlements that were built against international law are a politically charged and controversial issue in Israel.
• While the settler lobby and the governing coalition support expanding settlements and annexing the territory, other parts of Israeli society oppose it.

Driving the news: A source with direct knowledge of Mast's directive said the congressman sent the memo to the 50 Republican staffers on the committee on Tuesday. It is not binding for the Democratic staffers.

• He wrote that "in recognition of our unbreakable bond with Israel and the inherent right of the Jewish people to their ancient homeland, the House Foreign Affairs committee will, from here forward, refer to the West Bank as Judea and Samaria in formal correspondence, communication and documentation."
• Mast wrote that "Jewish roots in this region span centuries," and "as representatives of the American people, we must do our part to stem this reprehensible tide of antisemitism and recognize Israel's rightful claim to the cradle of Jewish civilization."

Between the lines: The Israeli government has never annexed the West Bank or officially applied Israeli law to this territory.

• The Israeli government and Prime Minister Netanyahu still use the term the West Bank in addition to using Judea and Samaria.

What to watch: During his press conference with Netanyahu three weeks ago, President Trump was asked by an Israeli reporter whether he "supports Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria areas."

• Trump said the White House is discussing the issue but hasn't taken a position yet.
• "But we will be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks," he said.

Federal workers who didn't respond to Elon Musk's request to outline what they did at work "are on the bubble," President Trump said during the first Cabinet meeting of his second term.

Why it matters: Trump's comments came as he was flanked by every one of his confirmed agency heads, including some whose departments' explicitly told their federal employees not to respond to Musk's email last week.

• Musk, who spoke Wednesday before any member of Trump's Cabinet, said that he received the president's permission to send the email to federal employees requesting they outline the five things they accomplished.
• Musk had said failure to respond to his email would be treated as a resignation.

Driving the news: "Those million people that haven't responded though, Elon, they are on the bubble ... I wouldn't say that we're thrilled about it, they haven't responded," Trump said.

• "Those people are on the bubble as they say, maybe they're gonna be gone," Trump added.
• The White House said Tuesday that more than 1 million federal employees responded to Musk's email, about half of the full federal workforce.

Zoom out: Trump's comments came just after the White House directed federal agencies to prepare for mass lay-offs, or reductions-in-force, Axios' Emily Peck reported.

• The agencies two weeks to prepare for the widespread layoffs.

Go deeper: Jolted Republicans beg Elon Musk to ease up with DOGE

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

President Trump confirmed on Wednesday that the U.S. and Ukraine have reached a minerals deal and that he still expects Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to visit the White House on Friday.

• Comments from Zelensky earlier on Wednesday had seemed to put the deal and the visit in doubt.

Why it matters: The deal is designed to allow the U.S. to tap into Ukraine's minerals and other natural resources and establish a joint fund for rebuilding Ukraine. It has the potential to reduce tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine after a public squabble last week.

What they're saying: "It is going to be a very big agreement on rare earths and other things. It has all been worked out. We are happy about it. We will also make a deal with Russia and Ukraine about stopping killing people," Trump said.

• Trump confirmed Zelensky would visit the White House on Friday for a signing ceremony. That would be the first meeting between the two leaders since Trump assumed office.
• Zelensky had told reporters in Kyiv on Wednesday that while a framework had been agreed, key details of the agreement still needed to be worked out.
• He also said his team was discussing a visit to Washington but suggested the timing was uncertain. Trump first announced the visit on Tuesday.

What to watch: Zelensky has repeatedly argued that Ukraine needs U.S. security guarantees as part of any deal.

• Trump said during Wednesday's Cabinet meeting that it was up to Europe, not the U.S., to make security guarantees.
• But he said the minerals deal would help ensure Ukraine's security because U.S. workers would be in Ukraine and "nobody is going to be messing around with our people when we are there."
• Trump also endorsed the idea of a European peacekeeping force that has been floated by the U.K. and France.

Between the lines: A source close to the Ukrainian government said the U.S. agreed to Zelensky's request to add to the text of the minerals deal a general mention of U.S. support for future security guarantees for Ukraine.

• A White House official told Axios the agreement "is not a guarantee of future aid for the war, nor does it include any commitment of U.S. personnel in the region."

The White House is directing federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, so-called reductions-in-force (RIF), according to guidance sent out by the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management on Wednesday.

Why it matters: To date, job cuts in the federal workforce have mostly affected probationary employees who are relatively easy to fire — RIFs are a more drastic step. Agencies were given two weeks to make plans for "significant" layoffs.

• Typically, in a RIF, positions are permanently eliminated.
• The guidance follows an executive order earlier this month requiring that agency heads prepare large-scale reductions in force.

Zoom in: Agencies must submit what the administration is calling "Phase 1 Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans" by March 13.

• Agencies should detail the number of full-time employees they can cut, and detail the cost savings doing so would entail over the next three years.
• The plans should include "a significant reduction" in full-time positions, per the guidance.
• "Agencies should focus on the maximum elimination of functions that are not statutorily mandated while driving the highest-quality, most efficient delivery of their statutorily-required functions."

By the numbers: There are about 2.3 million federal employees (not including the postal service). Thousands have recently been fired.

• The guidance doesn't appear to include any percentage target for cuts.

There are exemptions for Postal workers, military personnel, political appointees and positions "necessary to meet law enforcement, border security, national security, immigration enforcement, or public safety responsibilities," per the guidance.

• Any cuts to workers who "provide direct services to citizens (such as Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' health care)" should not be implemented without first a review from OMB and OPM, per the document.

The rationale, the memo explains, is to consolidate duplicative functions and management layers, reduce "non-critical" positions and implement technology that automates routine tasks.

• The document also asks agencies to cut their "real property footprint" and reduce their "budget topline."

Between the lines: Agency heads are directed to collaborate with the Department of Government Efficiency on these plans.

• There's been some friction lately between DOGE and agencies — as many pushed back over an Elon Musk-directed email to government workers over the weekend asking them "What did you last week?"
• Musk threatened to fire workers who didn't respond, the White House then backed off that threat, but Trump said Wednesday that workers who didn't respond are "on the bubble."

The big picture: The purge of the federal workforce began almost immediately when President Trump took office.

• First, he called employees back to in-person work, a move that led some to resign.
• Then a so-called deferred resignation offer went out, telling workers if they voluntarily resigned they could receive 8 months' pay.
• After that, federal agencies began firing so-called probationary workers — those in their positions for only a year or two (including some long-time federal workers who'd been recently promoted or taken on new roles).
• The administration has also fired many Inspectors General and nearly the entire staff of USAID.

What we're watching: These latest firings, however, have the potential to dwarf the scale of the cuts that have already happened.

A West Texas city reported Wednesday that an unvaccinated child with measles died after being hospitalized amid the recent outbreak.

The big picture: It's the first death officials have reported in the outbreak that began late last month. At least 124 people have been infected in the state so far.

• It's the largest measles outbreak in Texas in 30 years, following smaller outbreaks in 2013 and 2019.
• The surge in cases this year has prompted an uptick in vaccinations among parents who had previously declined to vaccinate their children, NBC News reported.

Driving the news: Officials for the city of Lubbock, in West Texas, and the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) confirmed the death in a joint press release Wednesday.

• "The patient was an unvaccinated school-aged child, and passed away in the last 24 hours," the press release stated.
• They said no further details were forthcoming.
• A representative for Lubbock Mayor Mark McBrayer did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment.

While eight U.S. states have reported measles cases this year, the majority of infections have occurred in Texas, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• The outbreak has sparked fears among health officials that the disease could be rebounding in the U.S. amid falling vaccination rates. Measles was previously declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.
• The vast majority of patients infected with the respiratory virus in the current outbreak have been unvaccinated.

Zoom in: Measles is a "highly contagious" respiratory virus that can be spread via respiratory droplets in coughs or sneezes or contact with an infected person, per the CDC.

• Measles can survive in the air up to two hours after an infected person has left the area.
• Measles symptoms typically appear one to two weeks after exposure, and include fever, cough, runny nose, and rash, as well as red, watery eyes.
• It can especially cause dangerous complications, like pneumonia, in children under five years old.

Go deeper: Texas measles outbreak grows

Editor's note: This story was updated with new developments and additional context.

President Trump shared what appeared to be an AI-generated video late Tuesday night depicting his vision of "the Riviera of the Middle East" if his plan to "take over the Gaza strip" comes to fruition.

Why it matters: The video recasts the enclave that's been devastated by the Israel-Hamas war as an oasis of Trump's fantasy, complete with bellydancers, a golden statue of himself and Elon Musk dancing under a shower of money.

Driving the news: The AI-generated video Trump posted on his Truth Social account opens with a shot of ruins labeled "Gaza 2025" and set to a dance track.

• The video then asks "what's next?" before segueing into idyllic visions of children running on a beach, skyscrapers, cruise ships and a rebuilt city — as what sounds like an AI-generated voice sings, "no more tunnels, no more fear, Trump Gaza is finally here."

Zoom in: The bizarre images in the video include:

• Bearded men belly dancing on a beach;
• Elon Musk eating what appears to be hummus on the beach, followed later of a shot of him dancing on the beach as U.S. dollars rain down;
• Trump, dancing with a scantily-clad woman in a club;
• A skyscraper emblazoned with "Trump Gaza" in golden letters;
• A toddler holding a large, golden balloon of Trump's head;
• A shot of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in swim trunks sipping drinks at a poolside resort.

The big picture: Trump said earlier this month that his takeover plan would entail a "permanent occupation" of Gaza by the U.S. that would see Palestinians displaced with no right of return, a plan that would violate international law.

• The plan was rejected by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as well as the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia.
• Faced with backlash, Trump seemingly walked it back, stating that the U.S. would not pay for the rebuilding or send in troops. No one seems to have a clear idea of how the plan would actually work.

Between the lines: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres lambasted Trump's proposal as "tantamount to ethnic cleansing."

• The UN lists forced relocation of populations as a crime against humanity.

Reality check: Even members of the Trump administration admit that the president's rebuilding plan is unlikely to happen anytime soon, even without the geopolitical hurdles it would have to clear.

• White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff told Axios last month that rebuilding Gaza could take between 10 and 15 years.

The bottom line: A vision of Gaza filled with luxury skyscrapers is unlikely to happen in Trump's lifetime, let alone his presidency.

Go deeper: Exclusive: Inside Trump's Gaza takeover stunner

The U.S. has become much less Christian, driven in large part by Gen Z and younger Millennials, according to a new Pew study.

Why it matters: "This is a broad-based social change," says Alan Cooperman, the director of religion research at the Pew Research Center.

• "We've had rising shares of people who don't identify with any religion — so-called 'nones' — and declining shares who identify as Christian, in all parts of the country, in all parts of the population, by ethnicity and race, among both men and women, and among people at all levels of the educational spectrum," he says about the survey findings.

By the numbers: Fewer than half of 18- to 29-year olds identify as Christian (45%), and nearly the same portion have no religious affiliation (44%), according to Pew's Religious Landscape Study, which surveyed more than 35,000 Americans.

• Meanwhile, 78% of those 65 and older identify as Christian.

Religiously unaffiliated adults came in at 29%, up from 16% in 2007, according to the study.

• And 7% of U.S. adults identify with other religions, up from 5% in 2007.
• Caveat: What researchers call a "secular surge" has plateaued in the last four years.

Between the lines: A significant portion of U.S. adults (35%) have switched from the religion of their childhood.

What we're hearing: "It's not surprising," Penny Edgell, professor in the sociology department at the University of Minnesota, tells Axios.

• "If you're more progressive, you might look at religion and say that the mainstream religious institutions don't reflect my values," particularly when it comes to topics like LGBTQ+ inclusion, she says.

Case and point: Fewer self-described liberals say they're Christian (37%, down from 62% in 2007) than are religiously unaffiliated, according to the Pew data.

• The decline among self-described conservatives is smaller, from 89% to 82%.

There's a new, combative air at one of the world's largest office buildings, as accomplished military leaders are axed, thousands of average Joes face layoffs and press access is muddied.

Why it matters: The Pentagon, so often roasted for its sedateness, is being blitzed by change. And the long-term tea leaves are hard to read.

Here are some of the latest developments:

1. A "DOD Rapid Response" account sprang to life on X. One of its stated goals there is "fighting against fake news!" Posts have so far amplified clips of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and singled out lawmakers and journalists.
2. Defense Department personnel were instructed not to respond to the "What did you do last week" email, which Elon Musk has championed. The far-flung message posed information-security concerns, according to critics.
3. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs, chief of naval operations and vice chief of staff of the Air Force were fired. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, who in January joined venture capital firm Shield Capital, will be nominated as the next chairman.
4. The Pentagon briefing room was shuttered, except for when public briefings are underway. This move came after CNN, NPR, the New York Times and other outlets were told to vacate their workspaces.
5. Up to 8% of the civilian workforce is on the chopping block, and a hiring freeze is on the horizon. Hegseth meanwhile ordered a $50 billion rework for fiscal year 2026.

Zoom out: Trump administration cuts are hitting veterans particularly hard, Axios previously reported.

• "This is the largest attack on veteran employment in our lifetime," William Attig, executive director at the Union Veterans Council, said.
• Veterans comprised 28% of the federal workforce last year. (That's a lot higher than 5% of the private sector workforce.)

Go deeper: Musk's "move fast, break things" ethos threatens U.S. security

Spring is getting warmer overall and featuring more unusually hot days in most U.S. cities, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Warmer springs can cause early snowmelt, which can imperil summer water resources and heighten wildfire risks.

• Warmer springs can also worsen allergies, among other effects.

Zoom in: Nonprofit climate research and communications organization Climate Central examined 55 years of U.S. temperature data for 241 cities and found that the meteorological spring season of March through May has warmed by a national average of 2.4°F.

• In an analysis released Wednesday, the group found that 97% of the 241 cities analyzed saw a warming trend for the season.
• Four out of every five cities now see at least one more week of warmer-than-average spring days compared to the 1970s.
• The geography of the warming across the U.S. shows that the fastest rates are in the southern tier, with the Southwest leading the pack at an average spring warming of 3.4°F.

By the numbers: The cities that have warmed the most since 1970 were Reno, Nev., which has seen average seasonal temperatures spike by 6.8°F, followed by El Paso, Texas at 6.4°F and Las Vegas at a seasonal average temperature increase of 6.1°F.

• Tucson, Albany, Ga., Chattanooga, Tenn. and Phoenix round out the fastest-warming list in the analysis.
• While the Southwest is the region seeing the fastest-warming spring, the fall actually outranks spring for the fastest-warming season in much of the Southwest and West.
• And winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., along with Alaska.

Yes, but: One region of the U.S. has seen some cooling during spring.

• It stretches from northern Montana into North and South Dakota as well as a sliver of Minnesota.

The intrigue: As spring temperatures have increased, the average number of days with above-average temperatures also went up in 98% of the locations analyzed.

• Locations in the Southwest, West, Southeast and South had the greatest increase in the average number of warmer-than-average spring days since 1970.
• Tampa, for example, now has an average of 37 more days with hotter-than-normal spring temperatures, Climate Central found.

Between the lines: The spring warming in the U.S. is taking place in tandem with increasing temperatures around the world due to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

President Trump is setting a new precedent for tight, punitive government control over a free press.

Why it matters: Trump and his administration are doing this systematically, gleefully and unmistakably.  But as we've written before, this unprecedented shift could set the precedent for future Democratic presidents, too.

The big picture: Trump frames this as payback for what he calls incompetent, left-wing coverage, and the White House says it's expanding access to new voices and outlets. The White House Correspondents' Association says he's tearing "at the independence of a free press in the United States."

• The end result is twofold: much tighter control over media, and new tools and tactics to punish critics.

Here is what's different today than 38 days ago:

1. Lawsuits. Before taking office, Trump sued ABC News, CBS News and a former Des Moines Register pollster over coverage. This is a new technique for a president or former president — and one getting results. ABC agreed to pay $15 million to Trump's future presidential library instead of fighting in court. CBS also appears to be heading toward settling. Hard to see how this doesn't encourage more lawsuits and entice future presidents pissed off about coverage to do the same.
2. Blacklists. Trump barred AP from the Oval Office and Air Force One for refusing to use "Gulf of America" instead of "Gulf of Mexico" after he made the change by decree. AP, a global newswire that writes the stylebook most U.S. media outlets follow, has been a pillar of White House coverage for more than a century. Denying access, and mandating word choices, are new tactics for a president. Imagine a Democratic president renaming it the Gulf of Obama — and targeting Fox News for refusing to call it that. Fox and the conservative Newsmax were among the outlets protesting AP retribution. Jacqui Heinrich — Fox News senior White House correspondent, and a White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) board member — wrote on X: "This is a short-sighted decision, and it will feel a lot different when a future Democratic administration kicks out conservative-leaning outlets and other critical voices."
3. Stacking the deck. For decades, until Tuesday, the White House had little say in the choice of media organizations responsible for covering official actions and trips via what's known as the press pool. In response to AP's suit over access, the White House seized control of this process, formerly run by the White House Correspondents' Association. Trump has promised to keep traditional media companies part of the mix. But if the new system holds, he and future presidents could surround themselves with friendly reporters asking friendly questions — and punish those who don't.
4. Shielding Cabinet officials. At the Pentagon, where reporters both work onsite and serve in a rotating pool that travels with the SecDef, a similar purge has unfolded. First, the Pentagon booted NBC News, the N.Y. Times, Politico and NPR from their physical workspace as part of a new "annual media rotation program" — substituting friendly outlets + HuffPost, which had no Pentagon reporter. A week later, CNN was ousted from its workspace. Good riddance, MAGA supporters say. But will a future Democratic president do unto conservative news sources as the Trump administration has done to the legacy media?

Behind the scenes: Taylor Budowich, a White House deputy chief of staff intimately involved in this process, told us there's more at play here, and insisted the moves aren't motivated by suppressing dissent. The White House feels access to limited areas like the Oval Office and Air Force One shouldn't be guaranteed to a select few legacy outlets — but instead should be opened up to include both MAGA voices, and other new or niche nonpartisan publications with more domain expertise.

• Budowich said the goal is to drive a "ratings bonanza" by leveraging the reach of traditional outlets with the fresh approach of some newer media players. "The established process doesn't serve people well," he said. "We want to provide more opportunities ... for those who want to do things differently."
• A New York Times statement Tuesday evening called the White House's move "an effort to undermine the public's access to independent, trustworthy information about the most powerful person in America."

The Axios approach: As we wrote a week ago, Axios takes a clinical approach, like a doctor. We simply want to give you the facts and insights to make better decisions and live better lives.

• But these changes curtail the free press, both now and if Trump or future presidents take it further.

Zoom out: Trump allies on X played up efforts by former President Biden to ensure friendly press interactions, including extremely limited press contact and prescreening of reporters' questions, in contrast to Trump's freewheeling sessions.

• The Biden administration culled the list of "hard pass" holders with permanent credentials — access the Trump team says it's restoring.

The bottom line: Tough questions, serious scrutiny, free thought, transparent access to key historical moments. These are decades-long precedents that keep the public informed.

• Go deeper: "Axios coverage in the Trump era," by CEO Jim VandeHei.

As the battle over Elon Musk's DOGE-directed cuts to federal medical research continues, institutions already are freezing hiring, cutting back on the number of Ph.D. students they'll accept and making other contingencies.

Why it matters: Capping how much the National Institutes of Health covers the schools' overhead costs could lead to billions of dollars in cuts to scientific research funding and widespread economic fallout.

Driving the news: An economic analysis by software company Implan on Tuesday estimates proposed cuts could lead to a loss of $6.1 billion in the nation's gross domestic product, a $4.6 billion reduction in labor income and result in the loss of more than 46,000 jobs nationwide.

• This includes the direct effects of the research itself, with 17,000 expected job cuts, but also indirect effects through a slowing of business-to-business spending in the R&D supply chain that could support 14,000 more jobs.

What they're saying: "It's not just researchers that are affected. It's not just universities that are affected," said Bjorn Markeson, academic divisional director and economist at Implan.

• "There's going to be impacts on real estate ... there's going to be impacts on legal services. There's going to be impacts on services to buildings, office, administration."

Between the lines: While federal courts have temporarily frozen plans to slash the rate NIH pays for "indirect costs" and the administration's temporary "pause" on federally funded grants and loans, universities are already feeling real pain.

• Institutions have also been reporting delays of NIH grant reviews, in what some legal scholars call a "backdoor" approach to freezing funding, Nature reported.

NIH cuts are most immediately hitting graduate education programs.

• The University of Pennsylvania said it would reduce graduate admissions, pointing in part to the NIH cuts, reported The Daily Pennsylvanian.
• The University of Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt University and University of Southern California are among institutions that temporarily paused Ph.D. program admissions but have since resumed the process, per Inside Higher Ed.
• Meanwhile, Columbia's medical school and MIT, among others, have frozen hiring.

Zoom in: Maryland is among the states that could be hit hardest, with potential annual losses exceeding $2 billion due to Johns Hopkins University and its robust research corridor, Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, told Axios.

• By his calculations, there could be 2,000 to 3,000 jobs eliminated in the state as the result of the new NIH policy on administrative and overhead costs.
• "Losing 3,000 jobs across the state would not devastate the economy, but it's an add-on effect to everything else that's going on now," Clower said.
• "Taking into account job losses elsewhere in the federal government ... it's a hard hit to the local economy," he said, noting the Maryland suburbs of D.C. have not seen job growth rebound to their pre-pandemic levels.

The cuts can have outsized impacts within states that receive much less, pointed out officials at Dartmouth College.

• Dartmouth has about 1,300 employees funded in part by its roughly $97 million in federal NIH grants. Dartmouth Health has another 400 employees whose jobs are funded at least in part by its $18 million in NIH grants.
• "In New Hampshire, that's a lot of people," said Steven Bernstein, chief research officer of Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center.
• Officials said they are not discussing layoffs or other changes. But "medium term and longer term, if the research portfolio shrinks, those job opportunities are going to decline," said Dean Madden, vice provost for research at Dartmouth College.

What we're watching: U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley is still considering whether the cut to the funding of indirect costs is unlawful.

The bottom line: The future of research talent and scientific advancements could be at stake with these looming cuts.

• "It will impact our ability to to train the next generation of scientists, because there will be less funding available to help support students while they're in their studies," Clower said. "There will be knock-on effects in the economy in future years."
• "What we can't measure is what those losses would mean to discovery of new medications, new drugs, new medical procedures," he said.

Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results, and Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

Driving the news: Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

• DeepSeek rivaled the industry's most advanced AI models in a cheaply trained open-source package.
• That suggested the long-term demand for Nvidia's powerful but costly chips might be lower than projected.

Yes, but: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

• All those projects keep orders flowing to Nvidia, which not only continues to lead the market for high-performing chips but also controls an ecosystem of supporting software tools that help AI makers optimize their products.

The big picture: There are three broader reasons to think that Nvidia could disappoint investors, if not this week then eventually.

1. The market is overconcentrated.

• The S&P 500's incredible run the last two years has been driven by gains in the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia (and also including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon and Tesla).
• The Magnificent 7 accounted for more than half of the S&P's gains in 2023 and 2024, and now makes up more than 30% of the index's total market capitalization.
• By one key metric, the market was more concentrated in late 2024 than ever before — including during the dot-com bubble.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive.

• Nvidia's astonishing market ride rests on the assumption that AI will be the tech industry's next universal platform and that demand for AI products and services will be massive.
• So far, although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools. Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.
• If that doesn't change, the AI industry — along with its leading toolmaker, Nvidia — could face a sobering correction.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

• That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
• Taiwan has long faced the danger of an invasion or blockade by China, which has claimed the island for decades.
• Trump may have given Beijing reason to doubt he would step in to protect Taiwan. Among other remarks, Trump lamented during the campaign that Taiwan "wants protection" but "they stole our chip business."

The other side: Nvidia could keep outperforming expectations for a long time.

• A bad quarter for the company would also be a disaster for the market in the short term, but not necessarily for Nvidia's long-term outlook.
• Even if the AI bubble pops, the chipmaker would remain an incredibly valuable repository of intellectual property, design skills and research power.
• Short-term investors might take a bath, but the company would live to thrive again.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley's 75-year history has been one long cycle of booms and busts. With AI it shows every sign of continuing that pattern.

Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia have the highest federal wages per worker, Labor Department data shows.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's attempts to cut the government workforce is likely to hit particularly hard in places with the most federal workers, and where those workers take home the biggest paychecks.

By the numbers: Federal workers in D.C. make about $136,000 per worker, those in Maryland make about $126,000 per worker, and those in Virginia make about $111,000 per worker.

• All three areas also rank in the top five for most federal workers overall.
• D.C. has about 191,000 federal workers, Virginia has 189,000, and Maryland has 158,000.

How it works: This data comes by way of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and reflects annual averages for 2023.

Caveat: These raw state-by-state figures don't account for varying costs of living between locations.

• $126k in Maryland doesn't go as far as it would in, say, West Virginia.

What's next: Multiple lawsuits filed by federal workers in connection with President Trump and Elon Musk's efforts to cull the government workforce are still working their way through the courts.

With the help of President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) muscled a budget package through the House — a win he claimed will give him momentum to pass "Trump's full America First agenda — not just parts of it."

Why it matters: Johnson's dream of one big, beautiful bill will live another day. But so will the reality of his razor-thin House GOP majority.

• The extraordinary evening was an early taste of the chaos to come.

Zoom in: Just before 7:30pm ET, lawmakers began filing out of the House chamber after being told votes were done for the evening. Leadership thought they had too many holdouts to risk a vote.

Just 13 minutes later lawmakers were streaming back in — the vote was on.

• "I just got a call from my office, they said 'Come back, the vote is back on,'" exclaimed a befuddled Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.).
• Some lawmakers had already been long gone. Several told Axios they were at dinner. At least one was at a Capitol Hill bar. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said he was "halfway home."
• "I was already in my pajamas," quipped Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wisc.). The whole dynamic was "very odd," said Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Between the lines: Both parties pulled out all the stops to try and ensure their preferred outcome.

• Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) showed up despite giving birth less than a month ago. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) voted despite being sick.
• Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.), who is recovering from a blood clot in his leg and a knee infection contracted from surgery, arrived to vote using a walker.
• Only Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Calif.), 77, who has missed nearly every vote since Jan. 3 as he undergoes cancer treatment, was absent.

Zoom out: Remember, this procedural bill was the easy part.

• Passing the actual bill — which could include deep cuts to Medicaid — will require Republicans of all stripes to subordinate their personal goals for the overall ambitions of the party and their president.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is salivating at the opportunity to put Republicans on the record on their planned cuts, especially on social safety net programs.

What's next: Now Senate GOP Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has to decide whether he wants to accept, or try to amend, the House budget reconciliation package.

• Many of his members, including Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), want to make dramatic changes, including how Congress counts the cost of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Apple said Tuesday it's working to fix an iPhone bug after some users reported its automatic dictation feature briefly displays "Trump" when they say "racist" before the text-to-speech transcription software corrects itself.

The big picture: A viral TikTok video of the glitch that Apple says erroneously suggests the word "trump" when users dictate some words that also include an "r" consonant caused outrage among conservatives online who've accused Big Tech of political bias.

• The glitch underscores artificial intelligence's accuracy problems as the technology develops and as companies like Apple move to make AI a key differentiator in choosing a smartphone.

Zoom in: Apple says the glitch is sometimes occurring during initial analysis when the speech recognition models that power dictation have on occasions displayed words that contain some phonetic overlap, but then further analysis identifies the intended word.

What they're saying: "We are aware of an issue with the speech recognition model that powers Dictation and we are rolling out a fix today," an Apple spokesperson said in an emailed statement Tuesday evening.