House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) instructed committee staff to refer to the Israeli-occupied West Bank by its Hebrew name Judea and Samaria, according to a copy of an internal committee memo obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The international community, including the U.S. government, refers to the territory Israel occupied in 1967 as the West Bank and doesn't recognize Israeli sovereignty there. Roughly 3 million Palestinians and half a million Jewish settlers live in the West Bank.

• Changing the terminology the committee uses is a symbolic move that reflects the support among many Republicans in Congress for recognizing Israeli sovereignty there.
• The occupation in the West Bank and the Jewish settlements that were built against international law are a politically charged and controversial issue in Israel.
• While the settler lobby and the governing coalition support expanding settlements and annexing the territory, other parts of Israeli society oppose it.

Driving the news: A source with direct knowledge of Mast's directive said the congressman sent the memo to the 50 Republican staffers on the committee on Tuesday. It is not binding for the Democratic staffers.

• He wrote that "in recognition of our unbreakable bond with Israel and the inherent right of the Jewish people to their ancient homeland, the House Foreign Affairs committee will, from here forward, refer to the West Bank as Judea and Samaria in formal correspondence, communication and documentation."
• Mast wrote that "Jewish roots in this region span centuries," and "as representatives of the American people, we must do our part to stem this reprehensible tide of antisemitism and recognize Israel's rightful claim to the cradle of Jewish civilization."

Between the lines: The Israeli government has never annexed the West Bank or officially applied Israeli law to this territory.

• The Israeli government and Prime Minister Netanyahu still use the term the West Bank in addition to using Judea and Samaria.

What to watch: During his press conference with Netanyahu three weeks ago, President Trump was asked by an Israeli reporter whether he "supports Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria areas."

• Trump said the White House is discussing the issue but hasn't taken a position yet.
• "But we will be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks," he said.

Federal workers who didn't respond to Elon Musk's request to outline what they did at work "are on the bubble," President Trump said during the first Cabinet meeting of his second term.

Why it matters: Trump's comments came as he was flanked by every one of his confirmed agency heads, including some whose departments' explicitly told their federal employees not to respond to Musk's email last week.

• Musk, who spoke Wednesday before any member of Trump's Cabinet, said that he received the president's permission to send the email to federal employees requesting they outline the five things they accomplished.
• Musk had said failure to respond to his email would be treated as a resignation.

Driving the news: "Those million people that haven't responded though, Elon, they are on the bubble ... I wouldn't say that we're thrilled about it, they haven't responded," Trump said.

• "Those people are on the bubble as they say, maybe they're gonna be gone," Trump added.
• The White House said Tuesday that more than 1 million federal employees responded to Musk's email, about half of the full federal workforce.

Zoom out: Trump's comments came just after the White House directed federal agencies to prepare for mass lay-offs, or reductions-in-force, Axios' Emily Peck reported.

• The agencies two weeks to prepare for the widespread layoffs.

Go deeper: Jolted Republicans beg Elon Musk to ease up with DOGE

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

President Trump confirmed on Wednesday that the U.S. and Ukraine have reached a minerals deal and that he still expects Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to visit the White House on Friday.

• Comments from Zelensky earlier on Wednesday had seemed to put the deal and the visit in doubt.

Why it matters: The deal is designed to allow the U.S. to tap into Ukraine's minerals and other natural resources and establish a joint fund for rebuilding Ukraine. It has the potential to reduce tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine after a public squabble last week.

What they're saying: "It is going to be a very big agreement on rare earths and other things. It has all been worked out. We are happy about it. We will also make a deal with Russia and Ukraine about stopping killing people," Trump said.

• Trump confirmed Zelensky would visit the White House on Friday for a signing ceremony. That would be the first meeting between the two leaders since Trump assumed office.
• Zelensky had told reporters in Kyiv on Wednesday that while a framework had been agreed, key details of the agreement still needed to be worked out.
• He also said his team was discussing a visit to Washington but suggested the timing was uncertain. Trump first announced the visit on Tuesday.

What to watch: Zelensky has repeatedly argued that Ukraine needs U.S. security guarantees as part of any deal.

• Trump said during Wednesday's Cabinet meeting that it was up to Europe, not the U.S., to make security guarantees.
• But he said the minerals deal would help ensure Ukraine's security because U.S. workers would be in Ukraine and "nobody is going to be messing around with our people when we are there."
• Trump also endorsed the idea of a European peacekeeping force that has been floated by the U.K. and France.

Between the lines: A source close to the Ukrainian government said the U.S. agreed to Zelensky's request to add to the text of the minerals deal a general mention of U.S. support for future security guarantees for Ukraine.

• A White House official told Axios the agreement "is not a guarantee of future aid for the war, nor does it include any commitment of U.S. personnel in the region."

The White House is directing federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, so-called reductions-in-force (RIF), according to guidance sent out by the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management on Wednesday.

Why it matters: To date, job cuts in the federal workforce have mostly affected probationary employees who are relatively easy to fire — RIFs are a more drastic step. Agencies were given two weeks to make plans for "significant" layoffs.

• Typically, in a RIF, positions are permanently eliminated.
• The guidance follows an executive order earlier this month requiring that agency heads prepare large-scale reductions in force.

Zoom in: Agencies must submit what the administration is calling "Phase 1 Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans" by March 13.

• Agencies should detail the number of full-time employees they can cut, and detail the cost savings doing so would entail over the next three years.
• The plans should include "a significant reduction" in full-time positions, per the guidance.
• "Agencies should focus on the maximum elimination of functions that are not statutorily mandated while driving the highest-quality, most efficient delivery of their statutorily-required functions."

By the numbers: There are about 2.3 million federal employees (not including the postal service). Thousands have recently been fired.

• The guidance doesn't appear to include any percentage target for cuts.

There are exemptions for Postal workers, military personnel, political appointees and positions "necessary to meet law enforcement, border security, national security, immigration enforcement, or public safety responsibilities," per the guidance.

• Any cuts to workers who "provide direct services to citizens (such as Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' health care)" should not be implemented without first a review from OMB and OPM, per the document.

The rationale, the memo explains, is to consolidate duplicative functions and management layers, reduce "non-critical" positions and implement technology that automates routine tasks.

• The document also asks agencies to cut their "real property footprint" and reduce their "budget topline."

Between the lines: Agency heads are directed to collaborate with the Department of Government Efficiency on these plans.

• There's been some friction lately between DOGE and agencies — as many pushed back over an Elon Musk-directed email to government workers over the weekend asking them "What did you last week?"
• Musk threatened to fire workers who didn't respond, the White House then backed off that threat, but Trump said Wednesday that workers who didn't respond are "on the bubble."

The big picture: The purge of the federal workforce began almost immediately when President Trump took office.

• First, he called employees back to in-person work, a move that led some to resign.
• Then a so-called deferred resignation offer went out, telling workers if they voluntarily resigned they could receive 8 months' pay.
• After that, federal agencies began firing so-called probationary workers — those in their positions for only a year or two (including some long-time federal workers who'd been recently promoted or taken on new roles).
• The administration has also fired many Inspectors General and nearly the entire staff of USAID.

What we're watching: These latest firings, however, have the potential to dwarf the scale of the cuts that have already happened.

A West Texas city reported Wednesday that an unvaccinated child with measles died after being hospitalized amid the recent outbreak.

The big picture: It's the first death officials have reported in the outbreak that began late last month. At least 124 people have been infected in the state so far.

• It's the largest measles outbreak in Texas in 30 years, following smaller outbreaks in 2013 and 2019.
• The surge in cases this year has prompted an uptick in vaccinations among parents who had previously declined to vaccinate their children, NBC News reported.

Driving the news: Officials for the city of Lubbock, in West Texas, and the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) confirmed the death in a joint press release Wednesday.

• "The patient was an unvaccinated school-aged child, and passed away in the last 24 hours," the press release stated.
• They said no further details were forthcoming.
• A representative for Lubbock Mayor Mark McBrayer did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment.

While eight U.S. states have reported measles cases this year, the majority of infections have occurred in Texas, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• The outbreak has sparked fears among health officials that the disease could be rebounding in the U.S. amid falling vaccination rates. Measles was previously declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000.
• The vast majority of patients infected with the respiratory virus in the current outbreak have been unvaccinated.

Zoom in: Measles is a "highly contagious" respiratory virus that can be spread via respiratory droplets in coughs or sneezes or contact with an infected person, per the CDC.

• Measles can survive in the air up to two hours after an infected person has left the area.
• Measles symptoms typically appear one to two weeks after exposure, and include fever, cough, runny nose, and rash, as well as red, watery eyes.
• It can especially cause dangerous complications, like pneumonia, in children under five years old.

Go deeper: Texas measles outbreak grows

Editor's note: This story was updated with new developments and additional context.

President Trump shared what appeared to be an AI-generated video late Tuesday night depicting his vision of "the Riviera of the Middle East" if his plan to "take over the Gaza strip" comes to fruition.

Why it matters: The video recasts the enclave that's been devastated by the Israel-Hamas war as an oasis of Trump's fantasy, complete with bellydancers, a golden statue of himself and Elon Musk dancing under a shower of money.

Driving the news: The AI-generated video Trump posted on his Truth Social account opens with a shot of ruins labeled "Gaza 2025" and set to a dance track.

• The video then asks "what's next?" before segueing into idyllic visions of children running on a beach, skyscrapers, cruise ships and a rebuilt city — as what sounds like an AI-generated voice sings, "no more tunnels, no more fear, Trump Gaza is finally here."

Zoom in: The bizarre images in the video include:

• Bearded men belly dancing on a beach;
• Elon Musk eating what appears to be hummus on the beach, followed later of a shot of him dancing on the beach as U.S. dollars rain down;
• Trump, dancing with a scantily-clad woman in a club;
• A skyscraper emblazoned with "Trump Gaza" in golden letters;
• A toddler holding a large, golden balloon of Trump's head;
• A shot of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in swim trunks sipping drinks at a poolside resort.

The big picture: Trump said earlier this month that his takeover plan would entail a "permanent occupation" of Gaza by the U.S. that would see Palestinians displaced with no right of return, a plan that would violate international law.

• The plan was rejected by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as well as the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia.
• Faced with backlash, Trump seemingly walked it back, stating that the U.S. would not pay for the rebuilding or send in troops. No one seems to have a clear idea of how the plan would actually work.

Between the lines: United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres lambasted Trump's proposal as "tantamount to ethnic cleansing."

• The UN lists forced relocation of populations as a crime against humanity.

Reality check: Even members of the Trump administration admit that the president's rebuilding plan is unlikely to happen anytime soon, even without the geopolitical hurdles it would have to clear.

• White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff told Axios last month that rebuilding Gaza could take between 10 and 15 years.

The bottom line: A vision of Gaza filled with luxury skyscrapers is unlikely to happen in Trump's lifetime, let alone his presidency.

Go deeper: Exclusive: Inside Trump's Gaza takeover stunner

The U.S. has become much less Christian, driven in large part by Gen Z and younger Millennials, according to a new Pew study.

Why it matters: "This is a broad-based social change," says Alan Cooperman, the director of religion research at the Pew Research Center.

• "We've had rising shares of people who don't identify with any religion — so-called 'nones' — and declining shares who identify as Christian, in all parts of the country, in all parts of the population, by ethnicity and race, among both men and women, and among people at all levels of the educational spectrum," he says about the survey findings.

By the numbers: Fewer than half of 18- to 29-year olds identify as Christian (45%), and nearly the same portion have no religious affiliation (44%), according to Pew's Religious Landscape Study, which surveyed more than 35,000 Americans.

• Meanwhile, 78% of those 65 and older identify as Christian.

Religiously unaffiliated adults came in at 29%, up from 16% in 2007, according to the study.

• And 7% of U.S. adults identify with other religions, up from 5% in 2007.
• Caveat: What researchers call a "secular surge" has plateaued in the last four years.

Between the lines: A significant portion of U.S. adults (35%) have switched from the religion of their childhood.

What we're hearing: "It's not surprising," Penny Edgell, professor in the sociology department at the University of Minnesota, tells Axios.

• "If you're more progressive, you might look at religion and say that the mainstream religious institutions don't reflect my values," particularly when it comes to topics like LGBTQ+ inclusion, she says.

Case and point: Fewer self-described liberals say they're Christian (37%, down from 62% in 2007) than are religiously unaffiliated, according to the Pew data.

• The decline among self-described conservatives is smaller, from 89% to 82%.

There's a new, combative air at one of the world's largest office buildings, as accomplished military leaders are axed, thousands of average Joes face layoffs and press access is muddied.

Why it matters: The Pentagon, so often roasted for its sedateness, is being blitzed by change. And the long-term tea leaves are hard to read.

Here are some of the latest developments:

1. A "DOD Rapid Response" account sprang to life on X. One of its stated goals there is "fighting against fake news!" Posts have so far amplified clips of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and singled out lawmakers and journalists.
2. Defense Department personnel were instructed not to respond to the "What did you do last week" email, which Elon Musk has championed. The far-flung message posed information-security concerns, according to critics.
3. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs, chief of naval operations and vice chief of staff of the Air Force were fired. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, who in January joined venture capital firm Shield Capital, will be nominated as the next chairman.
4. The Pentagon briefing room was shuttered, except for when public briefings are underway. This move came after CNN, NPR, the New York Times and other outlets were told to vacate their workspaces.
5. Up to 8% of the civilian workforce is on the chopping block, and a hiring freeze is on the horizon. Hegseth meanwhile ordered a $50 billion rework for fiscal year 2026.

Zoom out: Trump administration cuts are hitting veterans particularly hard, Axios previously reported.

• "This is the largest attack on veteran employment in our lifetime," William Attig, executive director at the Union Veterans Council, said.
• Veterans comprised 28% of the federal workforce last year. (That's a lot higher than 5% of the private sector workforce.)

Go deeper: Musk's "move fast, break things" ethos threatens U.S. security

Spring is getting warmer overall and featuring more unusually hot days in most U.S. cities, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Warmer springs can cause early snowmelt, which can imperil summer water resources and heighten wildfire risks.

• Warmer springs can also worsen allergies, among other effects.

Zoom in: Nonprofit climate research and communications organization Climate Central examined 55 years of U.S. temperature data for 241 cities and found that the meteorological spring season of March through May has warmed by a national average of 2.4°F.

• In an analysis released Wednesday, the group found that 97% of the 241 cities analyzed saw a warming trend for the season.
• Four out of every five cities now see at least one more week of warmer-than-average spring days compared to the 1970s.
• The geography of the warming across the U.S. shows that the fastest rates are in the southern tier, with the Southwest leading the pack at an average spring warming of 3.4°F.

By the numbers: The cities that have warmed the most since 1970 were Reno, Nev., which has seen average seasonal temperatures spike by 6.8°F, followed by El Paso, Texas at 6.4°F and Las Vegas at a seasonal average temperature increase of 6.1°F.

• Tucson, Albany, Ga., Chattanooga, Tenn. and Phoenix round out the fastest-warming list in the analysis.
• While the Southwest is the region seeing the fastest-warming spring, the fall actually outranks spring for the fastest-warming season in much of the Southwest and West.
• And winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the Central and Eastern U.S., along with Alaska.

Yes, but: One region of the U.S. has seen some cooling during spring.

• It stretches from northern Montana into North and South Dakota as well as a sliver of Minnesota.

The intrigue: As spring temperatures have increased, the average number of days with above-average temperatures also went up in 98% of the locations analyzed.

• Locations in the Southwest, West, Southeast and South had the greatest increase in the average number of warmer-than-average spring days since 1970.
• Tampa, for example, now has an average of 37 more days with hotter-than-normal spring temperatures, Climate Central found.

Between the lines: The spring warming in the U.S. is taking place in tandem with increasing temperatures around the world due to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

President Trump is setting a new precedent for tight, punitive government control over a free press.

Why it matters: Trump and his administration are doing this systematically, gleefully and unmistakably.  But as we've written before, this unprecedented shift could set the precedent for future Democratic presidents, too.

The big picture: Trump frames this as payback for what he calls incompetent, left-wing coverage, and the White House says it's expanding access to new voices and outlets. The White House Correspondents' Association says he's tearing "at the independence of a free press in the United States."

• The end result is twofold: much tighter control over media, and new tools and tactics to punish critics.

Here is what's different today than 38 days ago:

1. Lawsuits. Before taking office, Trump sued ABC News, CBS News and a former Des Moines Register pollster over coverage. This is a new technique for a president or former president — and one getting results. ABC agreed to pay $15 million to Trump's future presidential library instead of fighting in court. CBS also appears to be heading toward settling. Hard to see how this doesn't encourage more lawsuits and entice future presidents pissed off about coverage to do the same.
2. Blacklists. Trump barred AP from the Oval Office and Air Force One for refusing to use "Gulf of America" instead of "Gulf of Mexico" after he made the change by decree. AP, a global newswire that writes the stylebook most U.S. media outlets follow, has been a pillar of White House coverage for more than a century. Denying access, and mandating word choices, are new tactics for a president. Imagine a Democratic president renaming it the Gulf of Obama — and targeting Fox News for refusing to call it that. Fox and the conservative Newsmax were among the outlets protesting AP retribution. Jacqui Heinrich — Fox News senior White House correspondent, and a White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) board member — wrote on X: "This is a short-sighted decision, and it will feel a lot different when a future Democratic administration kicks out conservative-leaning outlets and other critical voices."
3. Stacking the deck. For decades, until Tuesday, the White House had little say in the choice of media organizations responsible for covering official actions and trips via what's known as the press pool. In response to AP's suit over access, the White House seized control of this process, formerly run by the White House Correspondents' Association. Trump has promised to keep traditional media companies part of the mix. But if the new system holds, he and future presidents could surround themselves with friendly reporters asking friendly questions — and punish those who don't.
4. Shielding Cabinet officials. At the Pentagon, where reporters both work onsite and serve in a rotating pool that travels with the SecDef, a similar purge has unfolded. First, the Pentagon booted NBC News, the N.Y. Times, Politico and NPR from their physical workspace as part of a new "annual media rotation program" — substituting friendly outlets + HuffPost, which had no Pentagon reporter. A week later, CNN was ousted from its workspace. Good riddance, MAGA supporters say. But will a future Democratic president do unto conservative news sources as the Trump administration has done to the legacy media?

Behind the scenes: Taylor Budowich, a White House deputy chief of staff intimately involved in this process, told us there's more at play here, and insisted the moves aren't motivated by suppressing dissent. The White House feels access to limited areas like the Oval Office and Air Force One shouldn't be guaranteed to a select few legacy outlets — but instead should be opened up to include both MAGA voices, and other new or niche nonpartisan publications with more domain expertise.

• Budowich said the goal is to drive a "ratings bonanza" by leveraging the reach of traditional outlets with the fresh approach of some newer media players. "The established process doesn't serve people well," he said. "We want to provide more opportunities ... for those who want to do things differently."
• A New York Times statement Tuesday evening called the White House's move "an effort to undermine the public's access to independent, trustworthy information about the most powerful person in America."

The Axios approach: As we wrote a week ago, Axios takes a clinical approach, like a doctor. We simply want to give you the facts and insights to make better decisions and live better lives.

• But these changes curtail the free press, both now and if Trump or future presidents take it further.

Zoom out: Trump allies on X played up efforts by former President Biden to ensure friendly press interactions, including extremely limited press contact and prescreening of reporters' questions, in contrast to Trump's freewheeling sessions.

• The Biden administration culled the list of "hard pass" holders with permanent credentials — access the Trump team says it's restoring.

The bottom line: Tough questions, serious scrutiny, free thought, transparent access to key historical moments. These are decades-long precedents that keep the public informed.

• Go deeper: "Axios coverage in the Trump era," by CEO Jim VandeHei.

As the battle over Elon Musk's DOGE-directed cuts to federal medical research continues, institutions already are freezing hiring, cutting back on the number of Ph.D. students they'll accept and making other contingencies.

Why it matters: Capping how much the National Institutes of Health covers the schools' overhead costs could lead to billions of dollars in cuts to scientific research funding and widespread economic fallout.

Driving the news: An economic analysis by software company Implan on Tuesday estimates proposed cuts could lead to a loss of $6.1 billion in the nation's gross domestic product, a $4.6 billion reduction in labor income and result in the loss of more than 46,000 jobs nationwide.

• This includes the direct effects of the research itself, with 17,000 expected job cuts, but also indirect effects through a slowing of business-to-business spending in the R&D supply chain that could support 14,000 more jobs.

What they're saying: "It's not just researchers that are affected. It's not just universities that are affected," said Bjorn Markeson, academic divisional director and economist at Implan.

• "There's going to be impacts on real estate ... there's going to be impacts on legal services. There's going to be impacts on services to buildings, office, administration."

Between the lines: While federal courts have temporarily frozen plans to slash the rate NIH pays for "indirect costs" and the administration's temporary "pause" on federally funded grants and loans, universities are already feeling real pain.

• Institutions have also been reporting delays of NIH grant reviews, in what some legal scholars call a "backdoor" approach to freezing funding, Nature reported.

NIH cuts are most immediately hitting graduate education programs.

• The University of Pennsylvania said it would reduce graduate admissions, pointing in part to the NIH cuts, reported The Daily Pennsylvanian.
• The University of Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt University and University of Southern California are among institutions that temporarily paused Ph.D. program admissions but have since resumed the process, per Inside Higher Ed.
• Meanwhile, Columbia's medical school and MIT, among others, have frozen hiring.

Zoom in: Maryland is among the states that could be hit hardest, with potential annual losses exceeding $2 billion due to Johns Hopkins University and its robust research corridor, Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, told Axios.

• By his calculations, there could be 2,000 to 3,000 jobs eliminated in the state as the result of the new NIH policy on administrative and overhead costs.
• "Losing 3,000 jobs across the state would not devastate the economy, but it's an add-on effect to everything else that's going on now," Clower said.
• "Taking into account job losses elsewhere in the federal government ... it's a hard hit to the local economy," he said, noting the Maryland suburbs of D.C. have not seen job growth rebound to their pre-pandemic levels.

The cuts can have outsized impacts within states that receive much less, pointed out officials at Dartmouth College.

• Dartmouth has about 1,300 employees funded in part by its roughly $97 million in federal NIH grants. Dartmouth Health has another 400 employees whose jobs are funded at least in part by its $18 million in NIH grants.
• "In New Hampshire, that's a lot of people," said Steven Bernstein, chief research officer of Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center.
• Officials said they are not discussing layoffs or other changes. But "medium term and longer term, if the research portfolio shrinks, those job opportunities are going to decline," said Dean Madden, vice provost for research at Dartmouth College.

What we're watching: U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley is still considering whether the cut to the funding of indirect costs is unlawful.

The bottom line: The future of research talent and scientific advancements could be at stake with these looming cuts.

• "It will impact our ability to to train the next generation of scientists, because there will be less funding available to help support students while they're in their studies," Clower said. "There will be knock-on effects in the economy in future years."
• "What we can't measure is what those losses would mean to discovery of new medications, new drugs, new medical procedures," he said.

Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results, and Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

Driving the news: Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

• DeepSeek rivaled the industry's most advanced AI models in a cheaply trained open-source package.
• That suggested the long-term demand for Nvidia's powerful but costly chips might be lower than projected.

Yes, but: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

• All those projects keep orders flowing to Nvidia, which not only continues to lead the market for high-performing chips but also controls an ecosystem of supporting software tools that help AI makers optimize their products.

The big picture: There are three broader reasons to think that Nvidia could disappoint investors, if not this week then eventually.

1. The market is overconcentrated.

• The S&P 500's incredible run the last two years has been driven by gains in the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia (and also including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon and Tesla).
• The Magnificent 7 accounted for more than half of the S&P's gains in 2023 and 2024, and now makes up more than 30% of the index's total market capitalization.
• By one key metric, the market was more concentrated in late 2024 than ever before — including during the dot-com bubble.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive.

• Nvidia's astonishing market ride rests on the assumption that AI will be the tech industry's next universal platform and that demand for AI products and services will be massive.
• So far, although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools. Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.
• If that doesn't change, the AI industry — along with its leading toolmaker, Nvidia — could face a sobering correction.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

• That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
• Taiwan has long faced the danger of an invasion or blockade by China, which has claimed the island for decades.
• Trump may have given Beijing reason to doubt he would step in to protect Taiwan. Among other remarks, Trump lamented during the campaign that Taiwan "wants protection" but "they stole our chip business."

The other side: Nvidia could keep outperforming expectations for a long time.

• A bad quarter for the company would also be a disaster for the market in the short term, but not necessarily for Nvidia's long-term outlook.
• Even if the AI bubble pops, the chipmaker would remain an incredibly valuable repository of intellectual property, design skills and research power.
• Short-term investors might take a bath, but the company would live to thrive again.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley's 75-year history has been one long cycle of booms and busts. With AI it shows every sign of continuing that pattern.

Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia have the highest federal wages per worker, Labor Department data shows.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's attempts to cut the government workforce is likely to hit particularly hard in places with the most federal workers, and where those workers take home the biggest paychecks.

By the numbers: Federal workers in D.C. make about $136,000 per worker, those in Maryland make about $126,000 per worker, and those in Virginia make about $111,000 per worker.

• All three areas also rank in the top five for most federal workers overall.
• D.C. has about 191,000 federal workers, Virginia has 189,000, and Maryland has 158,000.

How it works: This data comes by way of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and reflects annual averages for 2023.

Caveat: These raw state-by-state figures don't account for varying costs of living between locations.

• $126k in Maryland doesn't go as far as it would in, say, West Virginia.

What's next: Multiple lawsuits filed by federal workers in connection with President Trump and Elon Musk's efforts to cull the government workforce are still working their way through the courts.

With the help of President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) muscled a budget package through the House — a win he claimed will give him momentum to pass "Trump's full America First agenda — not just parts of it."

Why it matters: Johnson's dream of one big, beautiful bill will live another day. But so will the reality of his razor-thin House GOP majority.

• The extraordinary evening was an early taste of the chaos to come.

Zoom in: Just before 7:30pm ET, lawmakers began filing out of the House chamber after being told votes were done for the evening. Leadership thought they had too many holdouts to risk a vote.

Just 13 minutes later lawmakers were streaming back in — the vote was on.

• "I just got a call from my office, they said 'Come back, the vote is back on,'" exclaimed a befuddled Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.).
• Some lawmakers had already been long gone. Several told Axios they were at dinner. At least one was at a Capitol Hill bar. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said he was "halfway home."
• "I was already in my pajamas," quipped Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wisc.). The whole dynamic was "very odd," said Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Between the lines: Both parties pulled out all the stops to try and ensure their preferred outcome.

• Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) showed up despite giving birth less than a month ago. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) voted despite being sick.
• Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.), who is recovering from a blood clot in his leg and a knee infection contracted from surgery, arrived to vote using a walker.
• Only Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Calif.), 77, who has missed nearly every vote since Jan. 3 as he undergoes cancer treatment, was absent.

Zoom out: Remember, this procedural bill was the easy part.

• Passing the actual bill — which could include deep cuts to Medicaid — will require Republicans of all stripes to subordinate their personal goals for the overall ambitions of the party and their president.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is salivating at the opportunity to put Republicans on the record on their planned cuts, especially on social safety net programs.

What's next: Now Senate GOP Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has to decide whether he wants to accept, or try to amend, the House budget reconciliation package.

• Many of his members, including Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), want to make dramatic changes, including how Congress counts the cost of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Apple said Tuesday it's working to fix an iPhone bug after some users reported its automatic dictation feature briefly displays "Trump" when they say "racist" before the text-to-speech transcription software corrects itself.

The big picture: A viral TikTok video of the glitch that Apple says erroneously suggests the word "trump" when users dictate some words that also include an "r" consonant caused outrage among conservatives online who've accused Big Tech of political bias.

• The glitch underscores artificial intelligence's accuracy problems as the technology develops and as companies like Apple move to make AI a key differentiator in choosing a smartphone.

Zoom in: Apple says the glitch is sometimes occurring during initial analysis when the speech recognition models that power dictation have on occasions displayed words that contain some phonetic overlap, but then further analysis identifies the intended word.

What they're saying: "We are aware of an issue with the speech recognition model that powers Dictation and we are rolling out a fix today," an Apple spokesperson said in an emailed statement Tuesday evening.

Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence, said Tuesday more than 100 intelligence officers will be fired for taking part in sexually explicit discussions in agency chat rooms.

The big picture: Gabbard said on Fox News she "put out a directive" on Tuesday that those who took part in these chats on the National Security Agency's (NSA) "Intelink" messaging platform will also have their security clearances revoked.

Driving the news: Gabbard earlier Tuesday confirmed a report by conservative activist Christopher Rufo, who writes for City Journal, that the DNI was sending a memo directing all intelligence agencies to identify the employees who participated in the chats that included discussion on transgender identity.

• DNI spokesperson Alexa Henning said on X Tuesday that the memo was sent to "all intelligence agencies" over the "obscene, pornographic, and sexually explicit" chats.
• Gabbard said on "Jesse Watters Primetime" there "are over 100 people from across the intelligence community that contributed to and participated in what is really just an egregious violation of trust."
• She added to Fox News' Jesse Watters: "They were brazen in using an NSA platform intended for professional use to conduct this kind of really, really horrific behavior."

Zoom in: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service said in a post to X Tuesday it was aware of posts that "appear to show inappropriate discussions" by intelligence personnel and investigations to "address this misuse of government systems" were ongoing.

• "Potential misuse of these platforms by a small group of individuals does not represent the community," the post said.

Undocumented immigrants age 14 or older must register and provide fingerprints or face a fine or even imprisonment under new Trump administration plans announced Tuesday.

The big picture: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the escalation in the administration's crackdown on undocumented immigrants that she vowed the administration would enforce.

Driving the news: Undocumented immigrants will from Tuesday be required to register and create an USCIS online account, per a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services online page.

• The Department of Homeland Security will soon announce a form to complete the registration requirement, according to the post.
• The requirement applies to anyone in the U.S. for 30 days or longer.
• Once a person has registered and been fingerprinted, DHS will issue "evidence of registration," which immigrants over 18 must carry and keep with them at all times, according to USCIS.

Zoom in: Per a DHS statement, penalties will be imposed on undocumented immigrants who:

• Willfully fail to depart the U.S.
• Fail to register with the federal government and be fingerprinted.
• Fail to tell the federal government of changes to their address.

What they're saying: Noem said on Fox News' "Jesse Watters Primetime" Tuesday evening those who follow the requirements "can avoid criminal charges and fines and we will help them relocate right back to their home country."

• The program provides "them an opportunity to come back someday and to be a part of the American dream," but if they don't register, "they're breaking the federal law, which has always been in place," Noem told Fox News' Jesse Watters.
• "We're just going to start enforcing it to make sure" the undocumented immigrants go "back home," Noem said. "And when they want to be an American, then they can come and visit us again."

Between the lines: The new order will likely face strong opposition from civil liberties organizations and immigrant rights groups since it attempts to criminalize undocumented immigrants.

• Being in the country illegally is a civil violation and not a criminal one.
• Critics will likely say such requirements would require new laws, not executive orders or policy changes.

Zoom out: Since President Trump declared a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border soon after taking office in January, his administration has moved to unleash sweeping limits on undocumented immigrants, asylum-seekers and refugees.

• The administration has faced several lawsuits challenging the crackdown, including Trump's move to end birthright citizenship.
• DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement Trump and Noem were sending a "clear message for those in our country illegally" with the latest drive.
• "The Trump administration will enforce all our immigration laws — we will not pick and choose which laws we will enforce," McLaughlin said. "We must know who is in our country for the safety and security of our homeland and all Americans."

Go deeper: Texas, Mississippi have the most detained immigrants

Editor's note: This article has been updated with further context.

A Trump administration freeze on foreign aid has left nonprofits and volunteers scrambling to fill gaps in funding that have forced layoffs, suspended services and closed doors.

The big picture: But with the future of U.S. foreign assistance uncertain following confusion-inducing stop-work orders, organizers warn that it will likely be impossible to sustain critical services with philanthropic efforts.

• The State Department last month ordered a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance in accordance with a Day 1 executive order from President Trump that called for aid to be paused pending assessments of foreign assistance programs.
• The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development dropped a bomb on the already difficult-to-navigate quagmire, further complicated by the ongoing legal saga over the freeze.
• It has rocked foreign and U.S. contractors, stranded assistance at ports and risked livelihoods — and lives, experts told Axios.

The U.S. is the single largest humanitarian donor in the world. Though foreign assistance accounts for just around 1% of the total federal budget, that's a massive gap for crowdfunding organizations and nonprofits to fill.

Case in point: Nonprofit GlobalGiving, which works with some 6,000 nonprofit partners across 175 countries, recently launched its GlobalGiving Community Aid Fund to assist organizations on the front lines providing assistance amid the U.S. government's freeze.

• CEO Victoria Vrana told Axios that nonprofit partners in at least 75 countries have been impacted. The collateral damages range from having to halt vital services, like providing HIV treatment, to closing doors.
• But "donations can't fill the gap," Vrana stresses.

Friction point: After announcing the freeze, Secretary of State Marco Rubio later announced there would be waivers for "life-saving humanitarian assistance programs."

• But confusion persisted. And a list of exemptions obtained by Reuters showed the majority of waivers went to security and counternarcotics programs, while a limited amount went to humanitarian relief.
• Asked for comment, the White House said Trump returned to D.C. with a "mandate" to "bring about unprecedented change in our federal government to uproot waste, fraud and abuse."
• Rubio in an interview last week acknowledged the freeze has been "disruptive for some programs" but said he thinks it will ensure "every program ... serves the national interest because it makes us stronger or more prosperous or safer."

Yes, but: Even if the flow of funds is restored, organizations that have had to dismiss staff may no longer have the necessary infrastructure to actually provide aid, says Susan Appe, a University at Albany associate professor who researches government-nonprofit relationships.

• Fluctuations in aid are not a new phenomenon, she said — but this was an extreme case with no "responsible exit strategy."
• She noted there are strategies local aid partners can use to try to sustain services, like forming mergers or leaning on local philanthropy or governments to fill public service gaps. Others will have to close doors.

By the numbers: According to globalaidfreeze.com, a site that surveys nonprofits and organizations to gauge impact of the pause, 60% of 725 respondents as of Feb. 20 have had to lay off or furlough staff.

• Among nonprofit respondents, more than 21% say they have only one month of financial resources remaining, according to the site.
• "People have very little time right now," says Cheri-Leigh Erasmus, the co-CEO of Accountability Lab, one of the organizations collaborating on the freeze-tracking site. "And even a 90-day freeze — after 90 days, you don't have an organization left anymore."

What's next: The seismic shifts triggered by the halt may signal the "whole ecosystem of international aid being reshaped," Erasmus says. As actors scramble to find the most important gaps to plug, other sectors in the field may go underfunded.

• Accountability Lab has worked with organizations to identify themselves for potential mergers or strategic partnerships amid the freeze, she noted. Local governments will also likely be forced to think of ways to build resiliency to sustain services without bilateral funding support.
• "We have to try and sustain parts of an ecosystem," Erasmus said. "We're not going to be able to save every organization — that's just a reality of where we are."

Go deeper: Most USAID workers to be fired or placed on leave by late Sunday

President Trump announced Tuesday the administration plans to offer $5 million "gold cards," which grant individuals permanent U.S. residency.

The big picture: The new system would replace the existing EB-5 program — a system launched in 1990 that offers green cards to individuals who invested in the U.S. — and serve as a route to citizenship, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

• It wasn't immediately clear whether the administration could terminate or change the existing program without congressional approval.

Driving the news: "We're going to be selling a gold card," Trump said, adding that he believes it will bolster the economy.

• "Wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card, they'll be wealthy and they'll be successful, and they'll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people."
• The U.S. could sell 1 million or more of the "gold cards," Trump said.

Between the lines: By potentially eliminating the EB-5 program and replacing it with the so-called "gold card," the new program would effectively let the wealthy buy their way into the U.S. without having to create jobs or build businesses.

• In that sense, it differs from many "Golden Visa" programs around the world, which usually require the purchase of real estate or some other domestic investment. Some do allow residency by charitable donation, or opening a bank account.

Zoom in: The minimum investment needed under the U.S. plan would also be one of the most expensive such programs in the world, per firms that specialize in helping arrange visa deals for the rich.

• The new offer continues an early theme of the Trump administration, which is that money is the way to dispense with the usual rules — as when he promised anyone investing $1 billion in the U.S. would get all their permits expedited.

Flashback: DHS reforming investor visa, despite last-minute Trump doubts

Editor's note: This article was updated to clarify that the EB-5 program was launched in 1990.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff said Tuesday that Israel will send a delegation to Doha or Cairo in the coming days to discuss the next steps of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal based on principles that the U.S. has agreed to with Israel and Qatari and Egyptian mediators.

The big picture "If these talks go well, I might be going to the region on Sunday," Witkoff said at an American Jewish Committee event in Washington, D.C.

• Witkoff postponed by a few days his trip to the Middle East to discuss with Israel, Qatar and Egypt the possibility of extending the first phase of the deal, a U.S. source told Axios.
• A U.S. source said the reason for delaying Witkoff's trip is the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts on Russia-Ukraine.

Why it matters: The first phase of the hostage deal is expected to end on Saturday. Under the Gaza deal, the ceasefire will continue as long as second phase negotiations are taking place.

• If the first phase of the deal ends, the war in Gaza is likely to resume.

The latest: Hamas and Israel announced on Tuesday that they have reached an understanding that will end the crisis that erupted when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to delay the release of 600 Palestinian prisoners last Saturday.

• The parties agreed that Hamas will return the bodies of four Israeli hostages on Wednesday night — a day ahead of the original plan.
• In return, Israel will release the 600 prisoners and several other prisoners who were supposed to be released thus week. Hamas also agreed not to conduct any public ceremony around the return of the bodies, Israeli officials said.

What they're saying: "We're hopeful that we have the proper time to finish off -- to begin phase two and finish it off and get more hostages released and move the discussion forward," Witkoff said in a Sunday interview on CNN's "State of the Union."

• The White House envoy said he believes Netanyahu is motivated to release more hostages.
• "He also wants to protect the state of Israel. And so he's got a red line. And he said what the red line is. And that is that Hamas cannot be involved in a governing body when this thing is resolved. And so I think he's trying to square the circle on both of those things," Witkoff said.

Driving the news: Netanyahu convened security consultations on Saturday about the way forward in the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

• Israeli officials said that despite recommendations from the heads of the security services, Netanyahu delayed the release of the 600 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday, citing Hamas violations of the deal.
• The heads of the security services told Netanyahu in the meeting that they recommend making every effort to exhaust the negotiations on the second phase of the deal or on extending its first phase, Israeli officials said.

What they're saying: The White House on Sunday expressed support for Israel's decision to delay the release of the Palestinian prisoners and said President Trump is "prepared to support Israel in whatever course of action it chooses regarding Hamas."

• "Given Hamas' barbaric treatment of the hostages, including the hideous parade of the Bibas children's coffins through the streets of Gaza, Israel's decision to delay the release of prisoners is an appropriate response," White House national security council spokesperson Brian Hughes said in a statement.

Behind the scenes: Witkoff met on Saturday in Miami with Ron Dermer, the Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs, who is leading the Israeli negotiations team. It was the second meeting between the pair in 48 hours to discuss the second phase of the hostage deal.

• An Israeli official said Witkoff wanted Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Mahmoud Rashad to also negotiate, but their schedules would not allow it.
• The Israeli official noted that the mediators did not want to speak for Hamas or negotiate for the group and therefore refrained from coming to Miami.
• "The Americans understood that the mediators did not intend to cooperate with the process that Witkoff and Dermer wanted to conduct in Miami and that if they wanted to move forward, the negotiations had to be in the region," the Israeli official said.

Witkoff told CBS' "Face the Nation" that his five-day trip will include stops in Qatar, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information, including the postponement of Witkoff's trip, his comments on Tuesday and Tuesday's announcement by Israel's government and Hamas.