Elon Musk on Saturday said all federal employees will be required to send an email reporting what they accomplished in the last week — and failing to do so will be considered a resignation.

Why it matters: It's a page straight out of the playbook Musk used when he took over Twitter, making workers justify themselves to stay employed.

• The difference is that these are Civil Service employees, many with union protection — to say nothing of a Congress increasingly ill at ease with the blowback over how they're being fired.

Catch up quick: Musk posted his demand to X on Saturday afternoon.

• "Consistent with President (Trump's) instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation," he wrote.
• It follows a Trump post to Truth Social early Saturday morning, calling on Musk to get more aggressive with DOGE's government-slashing efforts.

Zoom out: Musk's post appears to mark the start of the next phase of DOGE's efforts to slash the federal workforce, following tens of thousands of terminations of probationary employees in recent days.

What they're saying: The president of the largest union for federal employees, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), was quick to blast Musk's demand.

• "It is cruel and disrespectful to hundreds of thousands of veterans who are wearing their second uniform in the civil service to be forced to justify their job duties to the this out-of-touch, privileged, unelected billionaire who has never performed one single hour of honest public service in his life," Everett Kelley said in a statement.
• "AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country."

For the record: The White House did not immediately respond to an email for comment on Musk's post.

Advocates, historians, and descendants of enslaved people are planning to join a 60-mile walk in Texas to bring attention to the Underground Railroad to Mexico — a lesser-known route that helped enslaved people escape to freedom.

Why it matters: The "Walking Southern Roads to Freedom," scheduled for March 3 to 9 in South Texas, is the latest development drawing attention to a largely forgotten episode of Black/Latino history amid a new surge of research and advocacy around the route.

Zoom in: Organizers say the walk will begin at La Sal del Rey, a salt lake in Hidalgo County, Texas, and pass many historic sites believed to be connected to the Underground Railroad to Mexico.

• Faith leaders, descendants, artists from Philadelphia and Kansas City, and representatives from the Harriet Tubman Museum and Educational Center in Cambridge, Maryland, are expected to join the seven-day march.
• Organizers say the walk will begin in La Sal del Rey, a salt lake in Hidalgo County, Texas and go through many historic sites believed to be connected to the Underground Railroad to Mexico.
• The event will also include a stop in Mexico to commemorate country's role in the underground walk to freedom. The walk will end in the border town of McAllen, Texas.

The intrigue: The event is a culmination of research by Roseann Bacha-Garza, a program manager for the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley's Community Historical Archaeology Project with Schools in Edinburg, Texas.

• She said the gathering will "increase awareness about the resilience and resolve of freedom seekers of African ancestry who participated in underground railroad-like activities from south Texas to Mexico."
• Bacha-Garza said the plans for the walk began after the school received a National Underground Railroad Network to Freedom designation for the Jackson Ranch Church and Martin Jackson Cemetery in San Juan, Texas, from the U.S. National Park Service.
• Those sites once served as a gateway to Mexico for enslaved people seeking freedom.

Zoom out: The Jackson ranch was located next to another owned by Silvia Hector Webber — dubbed by some historians as the "Harriet Tubman" of the Underground Railroad to Mexico — and her husband, John, who was white.

• The Webbers built a ferry landing on their property to help enslaved escapees move along the Colorado River toward Mexico, says Ohio State history professor María Esther Hammack.

Context: Historians have known for decades that some enslaved Black people in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Alabama escaped slavery by heading south.

• Oral histories, archives of slave escape ads, and narratives of formerly enslaved people show that fleeing to Mexico had been a possibility leading up to the U.S. Civil War.
• Abolitionists wrote about "colonies" of formerly enslaved Black people popping up in towns across northern Mexico — a country that had abolished slavery in the 1830s.

Yes, but: How many people fled south of the border remained a mystery, and historians debate just how well-organized the network was.

The Plano African American Museum in Plano, Texas, is opening an exhibit on March 6 called "Risking It All For Freedom: Women Who Crafted The Underground Railroad Into Mexico."

• It is being partly organized by the descendants of Silvia Hector Webber.

Pope Francis was in critical condition after an "asthma-like respiratory crisis" following earlier reports of pneumonia in both his lungs, the Vatican said on Saturday.

The big picture: The 88-year-old pontiff was admitted to Rome's Agostino Gemelli Hospital earlier this month with bronchitis symptoms and his treatment was changed after doctors found he had a polymicrobial infection of the respiratory tract.

What they're saying: "Today's blood tests also revealed thrombocytopenia, associated with anemia, which required the administration of blood transfusions," the Vatican said Saturday.

• "The Holy Father remains alert and spent the day in an armchair, although he is more uncomfortable than yesterday. At the moment, the prognosis remains guarded."

Catch up quick: The Vatican said the earlier polymicrobial infection arose "in the context of bronchiectasis and asthmatic bronchitis" and which required antibiotics, "makes the therapeutic treatment more complex."

• A follow-up chest X-ray Tuesday afternoon "demonstrated the onset of bilateral pneumonia that required further pharmacological therapy," said the Vatican of the pope, who has a history of respiratory health issues.
• "The Holy Father remains alert and spent the day in an armchair, although he is more uncomfortable than yesterday," the Vatican said Saturday. "At the moment, the prognosis remains guarded."

Go deeper: Pope jabs Vance, criticizes Trump admin for mass deportations

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the pope's latest condition.

• Axios' Lauren Floyd contributed reporting.

President Trump has unleashed a torrent of policy changes and executive actions, rapidly reshaping the political landscape.

• Here's our recap of key developments the past week.

Trump and Zelensky tension escalates

By all evidence, Trump was putting it mildly when he said Friday at a White House meeting with U.S. governors that he's "had not such good talks with Ukraine."

• Trump falsely suggested Ukraine started the war with Russia on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Trump called President Volodymyr Zelensky "a dictator without elections," leaving the Ukraine leader out of hours-long talks with Saudi Arabia on ending the conflict with Russia.

Reality check: "Zelensky was democratically elected in a fair and free election," Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

The Ukrainian president said on Wednesday Trump "lives in a disinformation space" the Kremlin created.

Trump's war of words against media

The Trump administration sent a memo on Friday closing the Pentagon briefing room to media taping, writing or recording when a briefing isn't happening.

• The memo penned by Pentagon press secretary John Ullyot is the latest administrative action restricting media access. Previously, Trump banned the Associated Press from the Oval Office over its stylebook, which still uses the Gulf of Mexico instead of his preferred Gulf of America.
• The White House Correspondents' Association condemned the decision last week as an "outrageous and a deeply disappointing escalation" restricting constitutionally protected press freedoms.
• The Associated Press filed suit over the ban Friday afternoon.

Trump asserts authority

Trump has claimed in an executive order he has direct authority over several federal agencies that have historically been independent.

• The order Trump signed Tuesday expands his control over the SEC, CFTC and FDIC, as well as the Federal Reserve's banking regulation role, but it explicitly excludes monetary policy decisions.
• The order maintains that the Office of Management and Budget director will set performance standards for independent agency heads and control budgets, including restricting spending.
• That essentially "turns the OMB director into a kind of uber-regulator, with power over agency heads across the government, including those who historically operated with little White House meddling," Axios' Neil Irwin writes.

Widening IVF access

Trump put a call out via executive order Tuesday for more ideas to reduce the costs of in vitro fertilization because, as the president put it campaigning last year, "we want more babies."

• IVF can range between $12,000 and $25,000 a cycle and is "often not fully covered by health insurance," the White House said in a fact sheet.
• About a quarter of employers offer some coverage for the procedure, per the White House.

Trump axes cop misconduct database

Trump shut down the first national database tracking misconduct among federal law enforcement officers — an idea the president initially supported after the police murder of George Floyd in 2020.

• The National Law Enforcement Accountability Database was created as part of an executive order by former President Biden, and now the site has an update atop it explaining: "User agencies can no longer query or add data to the NLEAD."
• The closure, first reported by the Washington Post on Thursday, ends a defining moment of earlier Black Lives Matter demonstrations, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

Trump picks confirmed this week

Trump's Cabinet and West Wing nominees are steadily clearing Senate confirmation, solidifying this administration's leadership team.

• Howard Lutnick, the billionaire former Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, was confirmed as Commerce secretary in a 51-45 vote on Tuesday.
• The Senate confirmed MAGA ally Kash Patel as FBI director on Thursday in a 51-49 vote.

More from Axios:

• Trump ousts top U.S. Gen. Charles "CQ" Brown and other leaders
• Tracking Trump: 5 moves this week with lasting impact
• Trump moves you might have missed this week

Six Israeli hostages were released by Hamas on Saturday as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

The big picture: All living hostages who were part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal have now been released.

• The bodies of four dead hostages are expected to be returned to Israel on Thursday to conclude the release of all 33 hostages part of the deal's first phase.

Driving the news: Four of the hostages who were released on Saturday were kidnapped on October 7 and held in captivity for 505 days: Tal Shoham, Omer Wenkert, Eliya Cohen amd Omer Shem-Tov.

• Two of the released hostages have been held by Hamas for more than a decade: Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed.
• Israel released 600 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday. Among them were 445 Palestinians who have been detained by the IDF in Gaza since October 8 and roughly 100 prisoners who were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.

What's next: The 42-day ceasefire of the first phase of the Gaza deal will end next Saturday. According to the agreement, the ceasefire will continue as long as negotiations over the second phase of the deal are taking place.

• White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks earlier this week with Israeli minister Ron Dermer, who is leading the negotiations on the second phase from the Israeli side, and with Qatari Prime Ministory Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, who is the key mediator with Hamas.
• But there are no signs yet that the parties are close to an agreement on the second phase of the deal or to extend the current phase.

Zoom in: Hamas said on Saturday it is ready to release all remaining hostages together if an agreement is reached on the second phase of the deal.

• Hamas said in a statement it demands such an agreement leads to the end of the war, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of all remaining Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.
• Israel, on the other hand, demands that any such agreement will lead to the end of Hamas' control of Gaza and the departure of its leaders to exile.
• "It is hard to square that circle," Witkoff said at a conference in Miami on Thursday.
• President Trump suggested on Friday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no qualms about resuming the war in Gaza at the end of the first phase in a week,

What they are saying: Witkoff stressed he hopes the good will from phase one of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal "will go into phase two".

• He added that phase two is more difficult, "but if we work hard there is a chance for success".
• "We are making a lot of progress in the conversations and hopefully it would lead to good results," he added.

The pipeline for new apartments in old offices is growing.

Why it matters: Converting offices is easier said than done, but cities and developers see it as one of the best ways to reduce vacancies while adding housing.

Between the lines: Such flips take time, money, and, often, government help.

• Developers completed less than 7% of office-to-apartment units underway in 2024, pushing most into 2025, according to a recent RentCafe report.
• Meanwhile, thousands of new conversions have been proposed.

What's next: The New York, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles metros are set to see the most office-to-apartment conversions in the coming years, per the report.

Go deeper: How old schools are turning into homes

President Trump fired Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Gen. Charles "CQ" Brown, Jr. and other top military leaders on Friday.

The big picture: The terminations, also reaching Adm. Lisa Franchetti and Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Slife, come amid the Trump administration's mass firings and pushback against diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.

• Brown is the first Black chief of staff of the Air Force and the second Black general to serve as chairman, following Colin Powell.
• Franchetti is the first woman to serve as the highest-ranking officer of the U.S. Navy.
• Brown, Franchetti and Slife were all nominated to their roles by former President Biden.

Catch up quick: Trump has claimed the military's leadership is too heavily focused on diversity issues, and he signed an executive order on January 27 directing the Department of Defense to ax DEI programs.

Zoom in: Trump didn't say why the military leaders were being fired but thanked Brown for more than 40 years of service to the United States, calling him "a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader" in a Truth Social post.

• Trump went on to nominate Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan "Razin" Caine for Joint Chief of Staffs chair, claiming he "was passed over for promotion" by Biden.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Franchetti and Slife's terminations by saying he was seeking nominations for their positions in a statement Friday.
• "Under President Trump," he said, "we are putting in place new leadership that will focus our military on its core mission of deterring, fighting and winning wars."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional terminations.

If you have travel plans for May or beyond, check your ID to see if it meets federal requirements.

Why it matters: Starting May 7, a Real ID compliant license or identification card — or another acceptable document — is needed to board a commercial aircraft in the U.S.

• The guidelines also apply when visiting military bases and secure federal buildings like courthouses.

What is a Real ID?

The big picture: A Real ID is a state-issued driver's license or identification card that meets federal security standards.

• Compliant IDs are typically marked with a star in the upper right corner, though the specific design may vary by state.

When is the Real ID deadline?

Threat level: May 7 is the enforcement deadline for Real ID after years of delays.

• The Department of Homeland Security estimates that 61.2% of Real IDs, relative to all driver's license and identification in circulation, will be Real ID-compliant by May 7, according to a final rule published in January.

Real ID Act of 2005

Flashback: Congress passed the Real ID Act in 2005 after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, seeking to beef up security surrounding IDs used at airports.

• The law was scheduled to be enforced in 2008 but has been delayed many times.
• All states were compliant for issuing Real IDs in 2020 but many states were in compliance earlier.
• In 2022, the enforcement deadline was extended to May 2025.

When you need a Real ID and when you don't

Zoom in: You need a Real ID if:

• You travel on a plane in the U.S. (and don't have a valid passport or other acceptable ID),
• Visit a military base or a secure federal building like a courthouse or
• Enter nuclear power plants.

Zoom out: You don't need a Real ID to drive, vote or open a bank account.

• TSA does not require children under 18 to provide identification when traveling within the count

How to get a Real ID, DMV appointments

How it works: Go to your state's driver's licensing agency website to find out exactly what documentation is required to obtain a Real ID.

• In some states, you can order a Real ID and others you'll need to make an appointment with the local Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV).

Between the lines: Federal and state officials are urging people to upgrade their IDs now so they're prepared for the upcoming deadline.

• Last-minute surges in demand for Real IDs are expected ahead of the deadline.
• Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias said Thursday that state facilities are seeing "unprecedented" traffic for Real ID appointments, NBC Chicago reports.

Real ID requirements

State of play: DHS says at a minimum you must provide documentation that shows your full legal name, date of birth, Social Security number, two proofs of address of principal address and lawful status, DHS says.

• Find your states' requirements and how to get a Real ID on this DHS page.
• Check out Axios Local guides for getting a Real ID in the following cities: Charlotte, Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Portland, Richmond and Seattle.

Real ID alternatives include passport

What we're watching: The Transportation Security Association says there are other forms of acceptable identification to show at the airport checkpoint in order to travel.

• Enhanced Driver's Licenses (EDL) issued by Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Vermont are also considered acceptable alternatives.
• U.S. passport or passport card and DHS trusted traveler cards (Global Entry, NEXUS, SENTRI, FAST)
• Permanent resident card
• Find the TSA's full list of acceptable identification here.

Will the Real ID deadline be extended again?

The latest: Another extension isn't expected but TSA published a final rule in January that provides a "framework for federal agency phased enforcement" of Real ID requirements starting May 7.

• TSA has not made a final decision on an exact phased approach, an agency spokesperson told Axios.

What happens if you don't have a Real ID after May 7

What's next: "Travelers who fly after May 7, 2025 and still do not possess a REAL ID are strongly encouraged to use their U.S. passport or other acceptable form of ID when flying domestically," the TSA spokesperson told Axios.

• "TSA also recommends that these passengers arrive a little earlier than normal to allow time for the identity verification process."

Long lines and airport delays are expected.

• "TSA recommends individuals without acceptable identification arrive at least three hours in advance of their flight time," the government agency said.

More from Axios:

• Wendy's hosts Girl Scout cookie sales, debuts Thin Mints Frosty
• Dunkin' joins Starbucks in dropping nondairy milk fee
• Costco extends gas station hours across the country

Local LGBTQ-serving community organizations are among nine nonprofits that sued the Trump administration Friday over executive orders targeting transgender and nonbinary people.

Why it matters: President Trump ran his campaign on an incendiary anti-trans platform that promoted false claims about the community, which make up 1.3% of U.S. adults.

State of play: One of his first actions in office was to direct the federal government to only recognize two sexes, male and female.

• He has since ordered federal agencies to limit gender-affirming care for youth, restrict information about trans issues and bar trans women and girls in federally-funded schools from participating in sports that align with their gender identity.

Driving the news: Filed by Lambda Legal, the lawsuit alleges Trump's actions "pose an existential threat to transgender people and the organizations that ... provide them with life-saving services."

• The plaintiffs, which include San Francisco AIDS Foundation (SFAF), GLBT Historical Society and San Francisco Community Health Center, are asking the district court to declare the orders unconstitutional and block their implementation.
• The lawsuit also accuses the Trump administration of expressing "a disparaging, demeaning, idiosyncratic, and unscientific viewpoint about transgender people and gender identity."
• That exponentially increases harm against trans people — who are already four times more likely to be victims of violent crime — and other marginalized populations, plaintiffs argue.

What they're saying: "These executive orders attempt to erase an entire community and enshrines blatant discrimination as national policy" while threatening to withdraw funds from organizations "simply because they acknowledge the reality of the people they serve," Lambda Legal's Jose Abrigo, the lead lawyer in the case, said in a press call Friday.

• "Moreover, if these executive orders stand, they set a dangerous precedent where the government can dictate what private organizations, researchers and service providers can say and do, even when it contradicts established medical, legal and historical fact."

Zoom in: The legal challenge comes after federal agencies sent notices terminating federal funding to organizations that serve trans people and other underserved communities, according to Lambda Legal.

• "We will not sit by and let this happen without a fight," SF Community Health Center CEO Lance Toma said in the press call.

Between the lines: Both SF Community Health Center and SFAF receive millions of federal dollars annually to provide its services. That includes free HIV testing and prevention work, mpox interventions, culturally competent care and programs that address disparities in health outcomes.

• Taking away that funding would force them to reduce services and turn away clients, the lawsuit argues. SFAF alone serves roughly 27,000 clients per year.
• The GLBT Historical Society, whose founding members included trans people, has similarly relied on federal funding to preserve materials related to LGBTQ+ communities for nearly 20 years.
• Trump's orders would force potential cuts to staff and operations, leading to a loss of access to priceless archives that reflect "accurate representations of transgender, nonbinary, and gender-expansive people throughout time," the lawsuit alleges.

Other nonprofits involved in the lawsuit include Prisma Community Care in Arizona, the NYC LGBT Community Center, Bradbury-Sullivan Community Center in Pennsylvania, Baltimore Safe Haven and FORGE in Wisconsin.

The other side: Trump has said his executive orders are an effort to defend women from "gender ideology extremism" and restore "biological truth."

• On the campaign trail last year, he frequently lambasted what he called "transgender craziness" and falsely claimed that gender-affirming operations are being conducted in schools without parents' knowledge.
• The White House did not immediately return our request for comment.

Go deeper: One month of fear for groups targeted by Trump's executive orders

While DOGE has begun facing a measure of GOP backlash, some Republicans are privately brushing off a spate of raucous protests and town halls in their districts targeting President Trump's government efficiency efforts.

Why it matters: The muted reaction signals at least some willingness, even by electorally vulnerable Republicans, to continue marching into this firestorm on behalf of the president to whom they've tethered their fates.

• Democrats, however, see echoes of their triumphant 2018 election cycle and are eager to press their advantage.
• "House Republicans have galvanized voters across the country to come out in protest against their Medicaid cuts, veteran layoffs, and defunding of health care for 9/11 first responders," said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for Democrats' House Majority PAC.

Driving the news: Angry constituents flocked to House Republicans' town hall events and district offices this week to protest DOGE's efforts to slash spending and lay off huge chunks of the federal workforce.

• Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) faced a large and testy audience at a town hall on Thursday, with Reps. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.) also getting heated questioning.
• Swing-district Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) all had demonstrations outside their offices.

What we're hearing: One swing-district House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share candid thoughts, told Axios they have "zero concerns" about a protest they're expecting outside their office.

• "It's 2017 all over. They've hated Trump since 2016. Same folks largely," the lawmaker said, although they added, "Most hate [Elon] Musk based on the calls."
• "That's all manufactured bulls**t for likes and clickbait," said another House Republican, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly about the upswell in protests.

Reality check: 2017 preceded a GOP wipeout in the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats took control of the House for the first time in nearly a decade by riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment.

• Strategists on both sides expect any wave on either side to be far smaller next year, but Democrats are bullish they can at least retake the House by harnessing anger toward the administration.
• "House Republicans can run from town halls and protests, but they can't hide from their own constituents — and it will cost them in 2026," said Warnke.

Between the lines: The liberal groups who have bombarded Democratic lawmakers into demonstrating more active resistance to the administration are not shying away from their role in organizing these confrontations.

• MoveOn said in a press release: "MoveOn members and allies will show up at congressional-led town halls and congressional offices across the country, targeting House Republicans whose votes will be crucial in opposing Trump and Musk's harmful policies."
• The Working Families Party and Indivisible similarly lauded the protests, with Indivisible framing them as part of their "Week of Action."

Friday marks the 60th anniversary of the assassination of Malcolm X (also known as el-Hajj Malik el-Shabazz) following a brief but lasting career as a civil rights advocate and Black nationalist.

Through the lens: Here are some images of Malcolm X's evolution from a life of crime, to a prominent leader in the Nation of Islam, to an international traveler investigating racism against Asians, to a cultural icon.

Go deeper: Attorney wants Malcolm X FBI/CIA files to be declassified

French far-right leader Jordan Bardella canceled planned remarks at CPAC Friday, after ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon made a "gesture referring to Nazi ideology," according to a statement to French news agency Agence France-Presse.

Why it matters: Bardella's change of plans is the strongest rebuke yet of Bannon, who, during his remarks at the annual conservative conference made a gesture that appeared to mimic a Hitlergruß, or Nazi salute.

• "This is a lie … It's a wave … I acknowledged a crowd after the best speech @ CPAC," Bannon told Axios.
• Bannon added that he sees Bardella as "gutless ... not tough enough to be a leader of France — he's a spokesmodel."
• A CPAC representative did not respond to a request for comment Friday.

Driving the news: "At this forum, (Thursday), while I was not present in the room, one of the speakers allowed himself, out of provocation, a gesture referring to Nazi ideology," Bardella said in a statement to AFP.

• "As a result, I have taken the immediate decision to cancel my speech scheduled for this afternoon at the event."

The big picture: The Bannon incident comes about a month after Trump-ally Elon Musk also made a hand gesture that drew comparisons to a Nazi salute.

• Despite blowback, Musk dismissed the criticisms, writing on X: "Frankly, they need better dirty tricks. The 'everyone is Hitler' attack is sooo tired."

Go deeper: ADL condemns Musk's Nazi "jokes" after salute controversy

Axios' Alex Isenstadt contributed reporting.

President Trump hasn't implemented most of the tariffs he's announced, but the uncertainty over when — or even if — he'll do so is already hurting the auto industry.

Why it matters: It's a tumultuous time for automakers, which are already grappling with regulatory uncertainties and worries about consumer acceptance of electric vehicles.

• At the very moment they need to be placing huge, multibillion-dollar bets on the future, they're instead caught in a "will he or won't he" limbo over Trump's tariffs.
• As they await more clarity, they're pausing or delaying huge investment decisions, increasing the risk they'll fall behind faster-moving Chinese rivals.

The big picture: The auto industry, more than any other, is caught in the crosshairs of Trump's burgeoning trade war.

• Prolonged tariffs on trade with Canada and Mexico, plus additional levies on steel and aluminum imports, would deliver a multibillion-dollar hit to U.S. automakers, according to credit analysts at S&P Global Ratings.
• There's also an invisible cost: the risk of delayed development of future vehicle programs, "particularly in light of evolving emission and fuel economy regulations," the analysts wrote.

What they're saying: General Motors CFO Paul Jacobson said this week at a Barclays conference that if U.S. tariffs became permanent, the automaker would have to consider moving plants. But for now, it's holding off on such decisions until the macroeconomic picture is clearer.

• "Those are questions that just don't have an answer today, because (what) I can tell you is, as much as the market is pricing in a big impact of tariffs and lost profitability, we think about a world where on top of that, we're spending billions of dollars in capital. So we can't be whipsawing the business back and forth," Jacobson said.

Between the lines: Ford is delaying the launch of its next-generation F-150 pickup from 2027 until mid-2028, Crain's Detroit Business, an affiliate of Automotive News, scooped this week.

• Ford declined to comment on "speculation" about future products, but delaying a makeover of the F-150, its biggest money-maker, would be extraordinary.
• Ford has been tearing up its product plans, adding more hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles to its pipeline, while axing plans for a much-anticipated three-row electric SUV and delaying the launch of its next generation electric F-150 Lightning truck.
• A "skunkworks" team in California is developing more affordable EVs from the ground up, starting with a midsize electric pickup in 2027.

Reality check: Multiple factors are at play in Ford's product pivot, but CEO Jim Farley's frustration about recent policy swings — on top of everything else — boiled over last week at a Wolfe Research conference when he said Trump's tariffs threaten to "blow a hole" in the auto industry.

• "So far what we're seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos."

Zoom in: As Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive, notes: "The delays and uncertainty are doing no one any favors, and there is little automakers can do in the near term, as changing sourcing and/or production sites is not an easy task and costly as well."

What to watch: The daily chaos from Washington seems to be negatively impacting consumer sentiment, per Cox Automotive's chief economist Jonathan Smoke.

• With tariffs likely to push up car prices, and lower auto loan rates looking less likely, he expects shoppers to buy sooner rather than later.

Disclosure: Cox Automotive and Axios are both owned by Cox Enterprises.

2025 is on pace for fewer fatal aviation accidents compared to the last several years, despite the I'll-just-drive vibes lately.

Why it matters: It may seem like the planes are falling out of the sky over the past few weeks, but the data paints a different picture.

By the numbers: There have been 13 fatal U.S. aviation accidents so far in 2025, per NTSB data.

• There were 31 such accidents in January and February 2024, 28 during those months in 2023, 33 in 2022, and 39 in 2021.

How it works: That includes all U.S. civil aviation, from single-engine private planes to commercial airliners — the latter of which have far more pristine safety records.

• It also includes Alaska, where often treacherous conditions can make flying more dangerous compared to the Lower 48.

Caveat: This is a measurement of overall accidents, not the number of fatalities.

• So January's tragic midair collision near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which killed 67 people, only counts once.
• Still, that was an aberrant event — the country's first major fatal commercial air disaster in about 16 years, a remarkable stretch of safe flying.

Between the lines: There's palpable unease in some aviation circles about President Trump and Elon Musk's still-vague plans to "upgrade" air traffic control.

• That the Trump administration recently fired hundreds of FAA technicians and other staffers has only amplified those concerns.

Yes, but: There's no clear link between Trump's recent moves and the latest high-profile aviation incidents.

The bottom line: It's perfectly reasonable to be concerned about aviation safety right now, given all the headlines. But frequency illusion is a heck of a thing, and as Superman said: Statistically speaking, flying is still the safest way to travel.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials negotiated all night into Friday morning in an attempt to conclude a minerals deal and halt the deterioration in relations, a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: The disagreement over minerals helped spark a wider crisis in relations this week. Now Trump administration officials and some in the Ukrainian government are pressing President Volodymyr Zelensky to make a deal.

• The U.S. official and the source familiar said the decision is now up to Zelensky, and both expressed concern that the U.S.-Ukraine crisis will deepen if he rejects the offer.
• The U.S. official called it a "make or break scenario for the Ukrainians."

The latest: "President Zelensky is going to sign that deal and you will see it in the very short term," White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Breaking it down: The rare earth minerals in question could be worth trillions of dollars in total.

• Zelensky rejected an initial U.S. offer presented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent which would have given the U.S. 50% of all revenues from the mining project, infuriating Trump.
• Zelensky had concerns about some provisions of the deal and the fact that it offered no security guarantees for Ukraine. The U.S. side came back with an "improved" offer earlier this week, and has now made additional modifications.
• The exact terms of the current U.S. offer are not clear.

The latest: U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg is still in Kyiv meeting with Zelensky's aides.

• The Trump administration sent to Ukraine the latest version of the mineral agreement on Thursday night, the U.S. official who is involved in the negotiations and a source with direct knowledge told Axios.
• The U.S. official said the modified version of the agreement is aimed at "fixing the situation" between the U.S. and Ukraine.
• The official said a U.S. cabinet secretary — who is not Bessent — was empowered by Trump to make the new offer. The official declined to say which cabinet secretary.

The latest: Kellogg wrote on X on Friday morning that he had a "long and intense day with the senior leadership of Ukraine" including "extensive and positive discussions" with Zelensky.

• The U.S. envoy referred to Zelensky as "the embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war" — a strikingly different characterization than Trump, who called Zelensky an unpopular "dictator."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Waltz's comment on Friday.

The Senate adopted a budget resolution early Friday after an all-night "vote-a-rama" that would provide more than $300 billion dollars for border and defense.

Why it matters: Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has barreled forward with his backup plan as Speaker Johnson (R-La.) scrambles on his mega-package that would also make good on President Trump's tax promises.

• The measure passed 52-48 after Democrats raised dozens of unsuccessful amendments, including one on IVF.
• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote against the budget resolution.

Between the lines After 25 rounds of voting on amendments, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Republicans "were forced to go on record and defend their plans to cut taxes for Donald Trump's billionaire friends."

• "What happened tonight was only the beginning," Schumer added. "This debate is gonna go on for weeks, and maybe months. Democrats will be ready to come back and do this over and over again."
• Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) voted with Democrats on failed amendments blocking Medicaid cuts.

Zoom in: The resolution provides $150 billion in additional defense spending and $175 billion for border. It also changes energy policy.

• The package will be offset by spending cuts and increased energy revenue.

What to watch: Getting both chambers to agree to a budget resolution is just the first step in the reconciliation process, which allows the Senate to get around the 60-vote filibuster for budget-related measures.

• The House and Senate have yet to agree on the first step.
• Once they do, they will also have to reach agreement on all the particulars — the funding, spending cuts and policies.

The big picture: House and Senate leadership have been divided over how best to go about passing Trump's biggest legislative priorities through budget reconciliation.

• Speaker Johnson insists the best chance of getting major wins through his razor-thin majority is if everything is in one package.
• Senate Republicans want to move faster on border and defense spending and give more time for negotiating a host of complicated and contentious tax issues in a second bill.
• Trump sided with Johnson this week, preferring "one, big beautiful bill." Still, Vice President Vance gave the Senate the green light to move forward with their own plan as backup.

The other side: Democrats tried to turn the budget "vote-a-rama" into a referendum against Trump's first month in office.

• Democrats mainly focused their amendments on cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Trump's federal funding freeze.
• While none of their amendments passed, it gave Democrats an opportunity to get Republicans — especially moderates facing reelection next year — on the record about supporting Trump's agenda.
• "In 2026, these amendments are going to play a valuable role," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told Axios in an interview earlier this week.

Top Democrats eyeing runs for the White House in 2028 are divided on how to confront Donald Trump and his mandate: Fight, or moderate.

Why it matters: Since the election, Democrats are facing an identity crisis: They no longer have a clear one.

• After Trump's surprise victory in 2016, many Democrats moved left and united under a "resistance" banner.
• This time, there's no consensus on strategy — and prominent Democrats already are taking different paths.

Driving the news: Potential 2028 contenders such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis have been foremost in touting their bipartisan bonafides, positioning themselves as pragmatic, center-left leaders.

• Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and JB Pritzker of Illinois have opted for a more aggressive approach — regularly picking fights with the new administration and proposing progressive legislation.

Zoom in: In recent weeks, Whitmer has touted that she sent National Guard troops to the border to combat illegal immigration, and said she's open to some new tariffs to protect industry.

• She also declined to join a multistate federal lawsuit challenging Trump's push to ban birthright citizenship, even though Michigan's Democratic attorney general is involved in the suit.
• In a much-touted "Road Ahead" speech at the Detroit Auto Show in January, Whitmer said that "in the Whitmer house, compromise was a good thing … "I won't go looking for fights … but I won't back down from them, either."

Whitmer has proposed a new payroll tax cut for Michiganders and split from some Democrats who've proposed electric vehicle mandates.

• "We don't care what you drive — ICE [internal combustion engines], hybrid, or EV — we just care that it's made right here in Michigan, by Michigan workers," she said.

In his State of the State address, Colorado's Polis said he hopes Congress can give a pathway to citizenship for some groups of undocumented immigrants.

• But Polis also said he hopes Trump and Congress "work together quickly to secure the border, stop human trafficking and stop the illegal flow of guns and drugs ... We welcome more federal help to detain and deport dangerous criminals."
• Polis also backed Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be Health and Human Services secretary.
• Whitmer and Polis have criticized Trump on issues such as how he's approached tariffs — but they're not reflexively against everything he does.

The other side: Democrats such as Newsom, Pritzker and Murphy have argued that Democrats need to keep up the fight against Trump to protect people from his policies.

• In his State of the State speech Wednesday, Pritzker argued the current moment has disturbing parallels to the rise of Adolf Hitler in Germany. He criticized those Democrats who think Trump will make an exception for those who don't speak up.
• "The seed that grew into a dictatorship in Europe a lifetime ago didn't arrive overnight," he said. "It started with everyday Germans mad about inflation and looking for someone to blame."
• "We don't have kings in America — and I don't intend to bend the knee to one. I am not speaking up in service to my ambitions, but in deference to my obligations."

The day after Trump won the 2024 election, Newsom called for a special legislative session in California to raise money to prepare to challenge Trump in the courts.

• On Feb. 7, Newsom signed a law allocating $50 million to bolster state and local legal groups preparing to challenge Trump's moves on immigration, the climate and more.
• Newsom added in a signing statement that said, "None of the funding in this bill is intended to be used for immigration-related legal services for noncitizens convicted of serious or violent felonies."

Zoom out: Other possible 2028 contenders have taken more of a wait-and-see approach — picking a few fights without mounting an all-out resistance.

• This group includes Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland and Andy Beshear of Kentucky.
• Shapiro and Beshear have joined lawsuits against the Trump administration, but also have said they're looking to find places of common ground.
• Moore has been critical of Trump's attempt to slash broad parts of the federal government, but he also told CNN recently: "I'm not the leader of the resistance. I'm the governor of Maryland."

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky angered Donald Trump so much during the peace talks with Russia that Trump was on the verge of withdrawing American military support from Ukraine, three U.S. officials familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

Why it matters: The conflict between Trump and Zelensky escalated into a war of words between the two that scared European allies who are worried about emboldening Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and rewarding his brutal expansionism.

• "President Trump is obviously very frustrated right now with President Zelensky," National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said Thursday at the White House press briefing.

The big picture: Trump and Zelensky have had an awkward relationship ever since Trump was impeached in 2019 for trying to leverage U.S. military aid to the war-torn country in return for Zelensky having Joe Biden's son investigated over his sinecure with a Ukrainian gas company.

• Today, Trump is finding it more difficult than expected to make good on his pledge to quickly implement a deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Zoom in: Six administration officials tell Axios that during the past nine days there were five incidents that angered Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Waltz. Taken together, one administration official said, Zelensky "showed how not to do the 'Art of the Deal' " when it came to courting Trump's support:

• Feb. 12: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Zelensky in Kyiv to offer a proposal that would give the U.S. access to Ukrainian mineral rights in return for de facto U.S. protection. Trump later told reporters Zelensky was "rude" and delayed his meeting with Bessent because he slept in.
• Feb. 14: At the Munich Security Conference, Vance and Rubio met Zelensky to get his approval for the mineral rights deal. But, the officials said, Zelensky surprised the Americans by saying he didn't have the authority to unilaterally approve it without parliament.
• Feb. 15: Zelensky publicly rejected the offer at the conference. White House sources noted that his remarks to reporters — that the deal was "not in the interests of a sovereign Ukraine" — were markedly different from more positive-sounding comments he'd made on X the day before.
• Feb. 18: As Rubio, Waltz and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff sat down with Russian negotiators in Saudi Arabia to talk peace, Zelensky criticized the meeting for occurring without Ukraine at the table. An angry Trump then lashed out at Zelensky at a Mar-a-Lago press conference, falsely suggesting Zelensky had started the war with Russia and had an approval rating of only 4%.
• Feb. 19: Zelensky fired back, saying the U.S. president "lives in a disinformation space." Trump then ratcheted up the pressure by posting on Truth Social that Zelensky, a former actor, was a "modestly successful comedian" who has become a "dictator without elections." Trump has refused to criticize Putin as a dictator.

What they're saying: Vance told the conservative media outlet The National Pulse on Wednesday that Zelensky should've aired his complaints "in a private discussion with American diplomats … he's attacking the only reason [Ukraine] exists, publicly, right now. And it's disgraceful. And it's not something that is going to move the president of the United States. In fact, it's going to have the opposite effect."

• Three administration sources say Vance's comment about Trump's state of mind was a not-so-veiled threat to walk away from Ukraine.

In the White House's view, Zelensky grew too accustomed to former President Biden's open-ended support for Ukraine's war effort, the full-throated backing of NATO countries and the positive press that went with it. So he overstepped.

• "Zelensky is an actor who committed a common mistake of theater kids: He started to think he's the character he plays on TV," a White House official involved in the talks said. "Yes, he has been brave and stood up to Russia. But he would be six feet under if it wasn't for the millions we spent, and he needs to exit stage right with all the drama."
• "We created a monster with Zelensky," another official involved in the negotiations said. "And these Trump-deranged Europeans who won't send troops are giving him terrible advice."
• "In the course of a week, Zelensky rebuffed President Trump's treasury secretary, his secretary of state and his vice president, all before moving on to personally insulting President Trump in the press," another administration official said.
• "What did Zelensky think was going to happen?"

What's next: Despite the mistrust and anger, Trump's team has continued negotiating with Zelensky and a new mineral-rights deal that would be part of a peace agreement is in the offing.

Reality check: The deal Trump appears to be negotiating could be highly controversial. Based on their public and private statements, Trump's team is expected to pressure Zelensky into giving up Crimea (which Putin seized in 2014) portions of eastern Ukraine and the Azov Coast (occupied in Russia's 2022 invasion).

• The U.S. insistence on claiming a share of Ukraine's mineral rights has been compared to a "mafia shakedown" by liberal critics, who point out that the country would lose land and mineral rights and get little in return.
• "It's a sh*t sandwich," a Trump administration official acknowledged.
• "But Ukraine is going to have to eat it because [Trump] has made clear this is no longer our problem."

For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the overnight session on Thursday is about proving Democrats have a path — and the guts — to get out of the political wilderness.

Why it matters: Schumer sees the budget "vote-a-rama" as his shot to convince voters that President Trump's GOP serves billionaires, not the working-class people who make up the new MAGA coalition. Axios scooped Schumer's thinking earlier this week.

• Democrats are expected to offer about 40 amendments as part of the debate over the Senate GOP's $300 billion budget reconciliation package.
• The amendments — which aren't expected to pass — are designed to pin Republicans between what's good for their reelections and what could infuriate Trump.

🔑 Schumer's two key targets are Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who each face reelection in 2026.

• As Schumer told Axios this week: "In 2026, these amendments are going to play a valuable role."

🎉 Zoom in: The festivities won't end until each side votes the other to exhaustion.

• Amendments are unlimited and the median age of senators is 65, per Pew Research Center.
• Among the potential amendments: Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) plan to put GOP senators on the record on Trump's IVF promises, as Axios scooped tonight.

The bottom line: For Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), the evening is much more straightforward.

1. Endure the vote-a-rama and pass the resolution.
2. Plant the Senate's flag as Trump's most viable path to quickly fund his mass deportations and border security.
3. Take back the upper hand from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has a daunting path next week to get his one big bill through the House.

Canada beat Team USA 3-2 in an overtime 4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game thriller in Boston on Thursday night, which saw political tensions spill into the arena.

The big picture: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a swipe at President Trump's call for Canada's annexation as the 51st U.S. state moments after the win, saying on X: "You can't take our country — and you can't take our game."

• Trump said on Truth Social earlier Thursday he was calling Team USA "to spur them on towards victory tonight against Canada, which with FAR LOWER TAXES AND MUCH STRONGER SECURITY, will someday, maybe soon, become our cherished, and very important, Fifty First State."

Zoom in: Ahead of the game, U.S. hockey fans booed Canada's national anthem — after Canadian fans booed a rendition of the "Star-Spangled Banner" before Team USA's winning game in Montreal last week.

• And singer Chantal Kreviazuk confirmed to CBC News she changed the lyrics to "O Canada" on Thursday from "True patriot love, in all of us command" to "that only us command" in response to Trump's annexation calls.

In photos: Highlights from politically charged U.S.-Canada hockey final

Go deeper: Trump's first month turns U.S. foreign policy upside down

Editor's note: This article and the headline have been updated to reflect Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's comment and further context has been added.