Data: Trade Partnership Worldwide; Note: Based on January-November 2024 trade data. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios
Businesses in some states — many near the country's northern and southern borders — may feel President Trump's tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China most acutely, per a new estimate shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Trump and others view tariffs as political cudgels for extracting concessions from targeted countries. But they're also likely to make stuff more expensive as companies pass higher costs along to everyday Americans.
Catch up quick: Trump on Saturday imposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy imports, plus issued new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
Trump on Monday delayed his planned Mexico and Canada tariffs for a month.
Driving the news: The tariffs as issued Saturday would have an estimated $232.7 billion national impact, per economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide and based on trade from January to November 2024.
That impact would be largest for businesses in Texas ($47.1 billion), California ($32.6 billion) and Michigan ($27.8 billion).
How it works: The estimates are based on census data for foreign imports and reflect "the composition of current trade based on existing company-to-company relationships," Trade Partnership Worldwide president Daniel S. Anthony tells Axios.
What they're saying: "Canada and Mexico account for over 90% of all Montana imports, versus just 5% for Hawaii," Anthony says. "So virtually anything that Montana companies import from the world could be subject to new tariffs in the immediate future."
"Similarly, states where Canadian energy imports are large see reduced impacts from the lower energy tariff. But even 10% is a huge cost when you look at a state like Illinois that imports tens of billions of dollars annually in Canadian crude oil."
Caveat: Tariffs may lead to less trade overall, Anthony notes — meaning past data isn't necessarily indicative of future tariff effects.
What's next: Trump is having ongoing conversations with his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau, who bashed U.S. tariffs as a shocking and perplexing betrayal of a longtime ally and promised retaliation.
The big picture: Trump, who has yet to make an official statement on USAID's future, appeared to damper Musk's ambitious plans, telling reporters the billionaire can't take action without "our approval."
Musk, head of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), "can't do and won't do anything without our approval," Trump said Monday at the White House. "We'll give him the approval where appropriate. Where not appropriate, we won't."
"Where we think there's a conflict or there's a problem, we won't let him go near it," Trump added.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was out of the country when Musk announcedUSAID was shutting down, said Monday he's now the agency's acting director.
Driving the news: House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) called the move to shut down the agency an "illegal, unconstitutional interference with congressional power," during a press conference outside the USAID headquarters,
He noted that Congress created the agency and Musk "doesn't have the power to destroy it."
"We don't have a fourth branch of government called Elon Musk, and that's going to become real clear," Raskin added.
What they're saying: Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) called Musk's efforts "an absolute gift to our adversaries — to Russia, to China, to Iran and others" because the agency "is an essential instrument of U.S. foreign policy and U.S. national security policy."
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) said a billionaire who hasn't been elected, vetted, or gone through confirmation "should not be telling American employees that they cannot access the building they work at."
She added: "Privileged billionaires who don't give a damn about America and Americans should not be making decisions that put Americans at harm."
Where it stands: Staffers were barred from entering the agency's headquarters, a source familiar with the USAID situation told Axios.
Most of the USAID's Bureau for Planning, Learning and Resource Management had their access to agency systems revoked as of Monday afternoon, the source said.
Employees in the Bureau for Resilience, Environment, and Food Security, — which houses teams for agriculture and climate, among others — were told they could lose access to their emails tonight or tomorrow, the source said.
"We work in countries where this happens," the person told Axios. "We never imagine[d] it would happen here."
Catch up quick: Musk said Monday morning that Trump had "agreed" to "shut" USAID down.
That was followingreports that two senior USAID officials were placed on administrative leave after barring DOGE representatives from internal systems during a recent visit.
Trump himself has railed against USAID, telling reporters over the weekend that the agency was run by "radical lunatics."
The US Agency for International Development (USAID), which Elon Musk has vowed to "kill" with President Trump's support, could destabilize regions where human-caused climate change is hitting particularly hard.
Why it matters: By ending humanitarian assistance and proactive climate resilience and adaptation programs, the U.S. military could get pulled into responding to more future crises.
Experts tell Axios that axing the agency completely, or even significantly downsizing it, would have security implications when it comes to climate change.
Catch up fast: USAID, an independent, operational agency now potentially moving under the State Department, conducts a variety of projects in climate-vulnerable locations such as Africa, Central America and parts of Asia.
These include programs meant to help boost the resilience of agricultural production to extreme weather events and make infrastructure better able to withstand such events.
Zoom in: According to archived versions of USAID's websites, the agencyhelps countries cut their emissions, conserve carbon-rich tropical rainforests and rely more on renewable energy sources.
"Climate change affects nearly everything we do at USAID," its climate page stated as of Jan. 17, according to the Internet Wayback Machine.
"As such, the Agency mainstreams climate change considerations across much of our development and humanitarian assistance work."
What they're saying: Curtailing USAID is "going to add substantially to the instability in these volatile regions, because vulnerable populations will be doing without," Sherri Goodman, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center and board chair at the Council on Strategic Risks, told Axios.
"Instability morphs, as we've seen in certain regions where insufficient governance, you don't have access to the basics, and there's a vacuum created and that also allows for other malign actors to come in," she said.
She said it's a choice between paying "a little bit now" to help make regions "more resilient to food and drought shocks, or pay more later by having to send American sons and daughters into conflict areas."
A pullback in foreign aid could also benefit China, which may step into the void to offer its aid and earn more favor in Africa and elsewhere, Goodman and others said.
"Trump's decision to shut down USAID has frozen critical work to deliver vital assistance around the globe, and put China in the driver's seat," Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tweeted.
By being proactive with aid and on-the-ground programs, USAID provides the U.S. with a way to head off future crises before they get to that point.
For example, USAID, along with other agencies, operate a famine early-warning system to predict them before they occur, and direct aid to where it is needed most.
The agencies also distribute food aid from U.S. farmers to those who need it most, which can cut down on migration that could destabilize countries or send waves of immigrants to the U.S.
What's next: It's currently unclear what USAID's fate will be given Musk's intense focus on it in recent days and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that he is now the acting USAID administrator.
Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) is placing a "blanket hold" on Trump's State Department nominees in response to USAID actions, the WSJ reports.
The Trump administration has targeted the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for potential shut down, the latest in its broad and escalating push to radically reshape the federal government.
Why it matters: USAID is the U.S. government's lead humanitarian aid arm and administers a wide array of programs around the world focused on fighting disease, reducing poverty and providing relief to people impacted by conflicts and natural disasters.
The U.S. government is the world's single largest humanitarian donor, per the United Nations.
The big picture: In the 2023 fiscal year, USAID disbursed roughly $44 billion of aid across 160 countries and regions around the world, per the agency's foreign assistance dashboard.
Ukraine was the top recipient of foreign assistance funds in FY 2023, with over $16 billion issued. Israel received more than $2.2 billion in disbursements, while Ethiopia and Jordan each received over $1 billion.
Other top recipients also included Somalia, Afghanistan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
State of play: From virtually the start of the new Trump administration, USAID's ability to carry out its work was thrown into disarray after a funding freeze on foreign aid ground much of the humanitarian sector to a halt.
Elon Musk, head of Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), said Monday morning that President Trump had "agreed" to "shut" USAID down.
This followedreports that two senior USAID officials were placed on administrative leave after barring DOGE representatives from internal systems during a recent visit.
Trump himself has railed against USAID, telling reporters this weekend the agency was run by "radical lunatics."
Case in point: USAID's website and X account have both been taken down.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Monday unveiled a 10-part plan for House Democrats' efforts to counter many of President Trump's moves to upend the federal bureaucracy.
Why it matters: There has been rising tension between Democratic lawmakers and the party's grassroots over how to combat the new administration's most inflammatory moves from the minority.
Driving the news: In a "dear colleague" letter to House Democrats, Jeffries vowed to use a March 14 federal funding deadline as leverage to prevent Trump from freezing or diverting congressionally appropriated funds.
"I have made clear to House Republican leadership," he wrote, that "any effort to steal taxpayer money from the American people ... must be choked off in the upcoming government funding bill, if not sooner."
That is in direct response to a now-rescinded Office of Management and Budget memo that ordered federal grants and loans frozen, leading to widespread confusion and locking states out of the Medicaid portal.
Jeffries also said Democrats will introduce a bill to prevent "unlawful access" to the Treasury Department's payment system after Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reportedly obtained forced access to it over the objections of top officials.
Between the lines: With Republicans commanding a razor-thin majority in the House, Democrats believe Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will be forced to go to them to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling.
That would give them the opportunity to try to temper what they see as the excesses of the GOP trifecta now governing Washington, D.C.
Some Republicans had hoped to include the debt ceiling in the massive party-line fiscal bill they are planning, but Johnson has signaled it will likely have to be passed on a bipartisan basis.
Zoom in: On top of those moves, Jeffries previewed a continuation of the public messaging campaign that Democrats credit for the rescission of the OMB memo.
He urged members, for example, to reach out to canvass their districts for constituents affected by Trump's actions, saying he plans to hold a tele-town hall Monday night.
He also wrote that Democrats on the House Oversight and Judiciary committees will lay out for their colleagues ongoing lawsuits to prevent some Trump acts like firing inspectors general and purging the civil service.
The U.S. has struck deals with Canada and Mexico for a month-long pause on the implementation of tariffs.
Why it matters: It temporarily averts 25% levies with huge economic implications for all sides.
It also marks the second time in this presidency Trump vowed a massive and disruptive tariff on a long-time ally, only to quickly freeze it after gaining what appeared to be limited concessions.
Catch up quick: Trump originally signed the tariff orders Saturday — 25% on Canada and Mexico (10% on energy), and 10% on China as well.
They were due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET Tuesday.
Zoom out: Trump announced a deal with Mexico via Truth Social post early Monday, and later in the afternoon Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed a deal as well.
Why it matters: The decades-old agency with a workforce of 10,000 managed some $43 billion in appropriations and assisted approximately 130 countries with disaster relief and economic development in fiscal year 2023.
The top funding recipients included Ukraine, Ethiopia, Jordan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Driving the news: Musk said early Monday morning that President Trump had "agreed" to "shut" USAID down after the billionaire railedagainst the organization for hours to his millions of X followers, labeling it as corrupt and wasteful.
His comments followedreports that two senior USAID officials were placed on administrative leave after barring Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) representatives from internal systems during a recent visit.
Dozens of career officials were also put on administrative leave last week, the Washington Post reported, over accusations they tried to sidestep Trump's foreign aid freeze.
Here's what you need to know about the agency:
Why was USAID founded?
President John F. Kennedy founded USAID via executive order in 1961 to implement the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, which CRS describes as the "cornerstone" of the country's foreign assistance programs.
USAID brought together several existing foreign assistance programs under one umbrella, per an archived version of the USAID website.
Building on the Marshall Plan, which assisted postwar Europe's recovery, USAID's early focus was on "technical and capital assistance programs," per its archived site.
Through the decades, it expanded its scope to promote "human needs" — like nutrition and education — as well as democracy and free markets.
What does USAID do?
Health programs were the largest USAID funding sector since the 1990s, according to CRS.
USAID and its partners supported HIV and AIDs testing for more than 79.6 million people as part of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) in 2019.
Health remained the top USAID sector until fiscal year 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Humanitarian assistance surpassed health for a time and was then passed by governance in FY 2023, a result of U.S. support for Ukraine.
By the numbers: The over $40 billion USAID managed in FY 2023 was still less than 1% of the federal budget.
Zoom in: It's not just other nations that benefit from USAID assistance.
For example, the USAID Food for Peace Program, which provides emergency food assistance around the world, purchased 1.1 million metric tons of food from U.S. farmers of ranchers in fiscal year 2023.
What has Trump said about it?
Trump told reporters Sunday evening USAID was run by "a bunch of radical lunatics, and we're getting them out."
Responding to a report that two senior agency officials were put on leave after trying to stop DOGE reps from accessing restricted spaces, Musk wrote on X, "USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die."
Zoom out: The State Department ordered a freeze on all U.S. foreign assistance funded through the State Department and USAID earlier this month to review whether programs are "efficient and consistent with U.S. foreign policy under the America First agenda" in accordance with an order from Trump.
After widespread confusion, Secretary Marco Rubio signed a waiver Tuesday allowing "existing life-saving humanitarian assistance programs" to continue work.
Yes, but: In the wake of the freeze, USAID partners and contractors were directed to halt work supplying critical drugs treating HIV, malaria and tuberculosis, Reuters reported.
And in Pakistan, officials were ordered to cease working on several projects, including reconstructing police stations damaged by flooding, NPR reported.
What we're watching: Trump has yet to make an official statement on USAID's future but told reporters Sunday the administration would "make a decision."
Democratic lawmakers, after reports Trump was considering merging the agency with the State Department, urged the administration in a letter to the USAID acting director to respect USAID's independence and life-saving work.
The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment.
Economists almost universally agree that the tariffs imposed by President Trump will cost the average American household hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars every year in higher goods costs.
Why it matters: It's not yet clear those households can, or will, pay it.
The big picture: In a matter of days, we're all going to learn how much pricing power is left in U.S. supply chains — from the wholesalers, to the distributors, all the way through to retail.
Whether the extra 25% levy on avocados at the Mexican border turns into a 25% hike on your Super Bowl guacamole will depend on a range of factors and business decisions.
State of play: At every step of the process, everyone who touches that avocado (or any other tariffed good) will ask themselves two questions:
Can my profit margins absorb — or survive — any of this price increase?
Will customers accept any of that price increase, or just stop buying?
The intrigue: Now ask those same questions at tens of thousands of businesses, thousands of times every day, selling everything from TVs to tires and avocados to amplifiers.
By the numbers: There are short-term and long-term costs at play.
As Trump's tariffs first hit, the Tax Foundation estimates they will be an effective tax of more than $830 per U.S. household this year.
Next year, the Tax Policy Center says, the full impact of the tariffs will reduce consumers' average after-tax income by 1%.
In the long term, economies re-arrange themselves to account for the new order, and central banks react to the inflationary pressures. The Budget Lab at Yale University forecasts even after all that, the average U.S. household will still lose about $1,000 of purchasing power a year.
Over the medium to long term, the Budget Lab estimated the biggest persistent price increases would be in natural gas (think heating and cooking), and the broad category of "computer, electronic and optical" (cell phones, among other things).
It may not take that long, either — as the well-known free trade expert Douglas Irwin posted on Sunday, his own home heating fuel provider immediately raised their prices to match the tariff, before it had even gone into effect.
The bottom line: "The big worry for markets is that President Trump may be willing to let the U.S. take considerable economic pain in an attempt to achieve his stated goals of reducing trade deficits, bringing jobs to the U.S., and enhancing border security," BMO Wealth Management chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma wrote Monday.
The decision by President Trump to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico and Canada is a stark repudiation of his own approach between 2017 and 2020.
Why it matters: No one yet knows whether these tariffs are an attempt by a transactional president to extract concessions from U.S. trading partners, or whether they're intended to become a permanent feature of the post-Trump landscape, designed to create a self-sufficient country much less reliant on international supply chains.
The big picture: This is the third major reconceptualization of North American trade since the end of the Cold War.
Bill Clinton's NAFTA, which came into law in 1994, was an attempt to maximize trade and growth across North America.
Trump 1.0's USMCA, which came into effect in 2020, was a renegotiation of NAFTA where the U.S. fought narrowly for its own best possible deal, with less concern for the consequences in Mexico and Canada.
Trump 2.0's tariffs effectively tear up USMCA and the concept of trade deals. In their place is an isolationist ideology that, if sustained, could cause massive economic harm not only in the U.S. but around the world.
What they're saying: Trump's executive orders, entitled "Imposing Duties To Address The Flow Of Illicit Drugs Across Our National Border," explicitly say the tariffs are a response to "the sustained influx of illicit opioids."
This announcement leaves open the possibility that should the fentanyl trade be addressed to Trump's satisfaction, the tariffs will be rolled back.
Indeed, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note Sunday that "in light of their potential economic effects and the fact that the White House has set general conditions for their removal, we think it is more likely that the tariffs will be temporary but the outlook is unclear."
"The national emergency we face is not about drugs or immigration," United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain said in a statement Sunday, urging Trump instead to "immediately seek to renegotiate our broken trade deals."
Between the lines: If the aim of the tariffs is to encourage companies to move manufacturing jobs from Mexico and Canada back to the U.S., then Trump will need to signal they are intended to be permanent. So far, that signal hasn't come.
The bottom line: Trump is unpredictable, and even he is probably unclear on how he would like to see his latest trade war play out.
Even if this one is resolved quickly, however, Trump has now made clear that he can and will impose his beloved tariffs at any point and for almost any reason.
"I don't think there are a lot of Americans who wake up in the morning saying, 'Oh, damn Canada. Oh, we should really go after Canada,'" Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remarked Saturday, encapsulating the shell shock many north of the border are now feeling.
Why it matters: The U.S. is indeed going after Canada. The 25% tariffs President Trump announced on Canada and Mexico — which will likely plunge our northern neighbor into recession — have united Canadians of all political stripes in indignation.
One sign of that sentiment: Canadian sports fans have started booing the U.S. national anthem.
Another: Canada's previously Trump-friendly opposition leader and likely future prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, demanded Sunday that Canada "Retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs," "defend our sovereignty" and "never back down" to Trump.
Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals
Breaking it down: Trump justified the tariffs on national security grounds — namely that migrants and fentanyl are pouring across the northern border.
However, less than 1% of fentanyl seized in the U.S. last year was entering through Canada.
The number of undocumented migrants detained at the U.S.-Canada border has been rising, but only to around 6% of all such encounters reported by Customs and Border Patrol since 2022.
Particularly galling for Canadians: Trump invoked national security to invoke 10% tariffs on a U.S. adversary, China, and 25% on arguably its closest ally.
Driving the news: Trudeau declared more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs in a televised address on Saturday night that included appeals to Americans' wallets and their heartstrings.
"Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk," he warned.
"From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours," he lamented.
Trudeau also advised Canadians to reject American products in solidarity.
Between the lines: For most Americans, the trade war will likely manifest mostly through higher prices on certain goods, such as lumber (and by extension, homebuilding). Canadian oil is subject to a lower tariff, to limit any rise in gas prices.
For Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., the economic peril is greater.
Trump is well aware of that dynamic.
What they're saying: "We don't need anything they have," Trump claimed, contending that without the help of the U.S., Canada "ceases to exist as a viable Country."
"Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State," he taunted.
Vice President Vance also portrayed Canada as a friendly freeloader, taking advantage of its proximity to the U.S. while not hitting NATO's 2% spending target.
"Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our 'best friend."
What's next: Trump plans to speak with Trudeau and Mexican officials today.
The bottom line: If you had to pick a country to share a 5,000-mile border with, you could hardly do better than Canada. But Trump is proving that even the closest of friendships can turn frosty.
Dozens of newly confirmed cases of avian influenza in wild birds and the first verified U.S. case of a new strain of the virus are raising concern the bird flu crisis may be entering a troubling new phase.
Why it matters: While the developments don't necessarily raise the risk of a pandemic, they could create more havoc for farmers, exacerbate egg shortages and expose more gaps in government disease surveillance.
The outbreak is intensifying as the Trump administration maintains a pause on most external federal health agency communications, including publication of CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a venerable source of scientific reports on public health.
Driving the news: The Department of Agriculture last week confirmed 81 detections of highly pathogenic avian flu in wild birds collected across 24 states between Dec. 29 and Jan. 17.
Wild birds can be infected and show no signs of illness, allowing them to spread the virus to new areas and potentially expose domestic poultry.
Officials in Pennsylvania and New York have culled thousands of wild geese, as well as commercial poultry flocks, after detecting cases of flu.
What they're saying: "If you look at what's happened the last eight weeks, the number of poultry operations that have gone down — and more recently, the duck operations — is absolutely stunning," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota told Axios.
The virus is being spread as wild birds comingle with birds in commercial poultry operations.
Changes in migratory patterns may be worsening the issue in northern states, which now see certain wild birds stay for the winter because water sources aren't freezing, Osterholm said.
"There is a lot of H5N1 out there. And we're going to see more cases in humans," he said.
But "they're going to be single, isolated cases," he said.
The intrigue: A new strain of avian flu called H5N9 was recently identified on a duck farm in California that had an outbreak of the more common H5N1 flu last fall.
The new type is a sign that two or more viruses could be infecting the same animal and swapping genetic material. Ducks make good hosts for what scientists call "reassortment" because they aren't badly sickened by many types of avian flu.
About 119,000birds on the farm were euthanized following the discovery.
Such mutations, in and of themselves, may not pose a greater threat to human health.
The H5N9 strain originated in China and is itself a mix of several other strains. It isn't thought to be more of a threat to humans than the H5N1 strain that's widely circulating in U.S. poultry, cattle and wild birds.
But its presence could become a major problem if there was a reassortment between avian flu and a seasonal human flu, Richard Webby, director of the World Health Organization's Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza, told the Los Angeles Times.
That combination could result in a virus that is more easily transmitted between people.
Catch up quick: The bird flu crisis has struck 113 flocks in the past 30 days, affecting more than 19 million birds, per USDA. It's also been confirmed in 943 dairy herds, the vast majority in California.
The Trump administration hasn't publicly outlined steps it's taken yet to address the spread. HHS didn't respond to a request for comment.
HHS Secretary-designate Robert F Kennedy Jr. said he intended to "devote the appropriate resources to preventing pandemics" during confirmation hearings this week, leading some Democratic senators to point to past statements he made about giving infectious disease research "a break."
Between the lines: The partial blackout on health communications has effectively blocked publication of a pair of studies on bird flu, including one on whether veterinarians who treat cattle have been unknowingly infected by the virus, KFF Health News reported.
The other report looked at whether people carrying the virus might have infected domestic cats.
The reports were due to appear in the MMWR, which hasn't published since January 16 and is subject to the pause ordered by acting HHS Secretary Dorothy Fink to allow the new administration to set up a process for review and prioritization.
The communications freeze has been met with outrage in some medical and science circles. "This idea that science cannot continue until there's a political lens over it is unprecedented," Anne Schuchat, a former principal deputy director at the CDC, told KFF Health News.
There's a lot of uncertainty around whether the administration is merely pausing communication or making a wholesale change in how the agency functions, Patrick Jackson, a UVA Health infectious diseases expert, said on a call with reporters Friday.
"Frankly, getting CDC up and running at full speed is going to be essential to keep track of avian influenza," he said.
Elon Musk and his cost-slashing allies are taking a hammer to the massive bureaucracy that staffs the U.S. government — and a scalpel to any senior officials who dare put up a fight.
Why it matters: Musk isn't the only force driving the Trump administration's escalating purge of civil servants. But his fingerprints are everywhere, and his methods are unlike anything the federal government has ever seen.
Zoom in: Musk and his lieutenants — many of them Silicon Valley transplants, some as young as 19 — have been tied to a series of high-profile departures and ousters at the top of key federal agencies.
The Treasury Department's highest-ranking career official announced his retirement Friday after a dispute with Musk allies who sought access to a sensitive system for government payments, The Washington Post scooped.
David Lebryk, who worked at Treasury for more than three decades, was one of a few career officials who control the Bureau of Fiscal Service's technical checkbook, which disburses trillions of dollars in spending.
"Truly a shocking move — Dave is a total apolitical professional who's been trusted by Treasury secretaries from both parties to maintain the critical financial plumbing of the U.S. govt," Biden Treasury official Mike Gwin tweeted in response to the news.
By late Friday, Musk's allies at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had been granted full access to the payment system by newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to the New York Times.
"Career Treasury officials are breaking the law every hour of every day by approving payments that are fraudulent or do not match the funding laws passed by Congress," Musk claimed Saturday. "This needs to stop NOW!"
"I can think of no good reason why political operators who have demonstrated a blatant disregard for the law would need access to these sensitive, mission-critical systems," Senate Finance ranking member Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) wrote in a letter demanding answers from Bessent.
The pattern repeated itself at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which Trump could be preparing to fold into the State Department — openly defying a congressional statute.
A top HR official at USAID, which has become the epicenter of a vicious debate over foreign aid, was placed on administrative leave Thursday for trying to rescind a DOGE order purging career officials, the Post reports.
On Saturday, two top security officials also were put on leave after trying to stop Musk allies from physically accessing USAID headquarters and personnel files, including classified information.
"USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die," Musk tweeted in response to reports of the confrontation.
Behind the scenes: So far, the White House appears pleased with Musk's foray into the inner workings of the government, seeing his efforts as aligned with Trump's broader goals of disrupting D.C.'s status quo.
"Elon's top interest outside of DOGE is making sure the president's orders are acted upon," a senior White House official told Axios. "Elon is the ultimate command-and-control guy. He's making sure there's a sense of urgency in the agencies."
"What Elon's doing is great because he's an innovative businessman bringing business innovation to bear in government. That's why he's here," the official added.
But political risks are inherent in Musk's whirlwind takeover of federal agencies, especially when they intersect with his business interests.
Democrats have accused Musk of pressuring former Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) head Mike Whitaker to resign Jan. 20 over $600,000 in fines the agency levied against Musk's SpaceX.
Whitaker's departure left the FAA without a leader during Wednesday night's in-air collision near Reagan National Airport — the deadliest U.S. air disaster since 2001. Trump named Chris Rocheleau as FAA acting administrator the next day.
The big picture: Musk hasn't slowed down since helping orchestrate last week's stunning offer of "deferred resignations" for 2 million federal workers, which came days after he visited the Office of Personnel Management.
Musk allies installed at the OPM have locked career officials out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal workers, Reuters reported Friday.
What we're watching: Musk paid a visit last week to what's likely to be his next target: the General Services Administration, which oversees thousands of government leases as part of its massive budget.
"Deleted," Musk responded bluntly to an X post highlighting the billions of dollars and thousands of federal workers under GSA's control.
A novel new report combining several strands of research finds that human-driven climate change could result in $1.47 trillion in net property value losses from rising insurance costs and shifting consumer demand.
Why it matters: Insurance costs are increasing faster than mortgage payments. That's squeezing homeowners and leading to climate change-driven migration away from high-risk areas in the Sun Belt and the West.
The report from First Street, a climate risk financial modeling company, identifies the five largest metro areas likely to see the biggest spikes in insurance premiums: Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans and Sacramento.
Zoom in: The report is based on peer-reviewed models of how climate change may affect insurance prices, migration and economic patterns, among other factors.
The findings are particularly timely given the recent, devastating wildfires in Southern California, which caused an estimated $20 to $30 billion in insured losses and raised the topic of how insurance premiums price wildfire risks.
According to the new research, climate impacts may disrupt historical migration to Sun Belt states as risks of climate change-worsened extreme weather events continue to grow.
First Street estimates that unrestricted, risk-based insurance pricing would yield a 29.4% increase in average insurance premiums across the country by 2055.
This would include an 18.4% correction for "current underpricing" and an 11% increase from climate risk increases.
The intrigue: The economic, climate and demographic modeling behind this report predicts that more than 55 million Americans will "voluntarily relocate within the U.S. to areas less vulnerable to climate risks by 2055."
This would include 5.2 million internal climate migrants in 2025.
Economic growth has been thought of as a shield of sorts to retain population in areas that suffer from increasingly severe climate change-related disruptions.
In its analysis, First Street warns that may not hold up through 2055,with some metropolitan areas crossing "tipping points" in which they begin to see net declines in population.
Already, researchers found that fast-growing cities in the South, Southeast and West have pockets of higher climate risks where homes are gaining value more slowly than similar homes in less risky areas.
There may be winners, however, with northern, currently less-populated areas from Montana to Wisconsin — and in parts of the East — taking in more people because of the region's greater climate resilience.
Between the lines: First Street's report itself hasn't been peer-reviewed, and there are important caveats and uncertainties associated with the work, since it combines results from multiple models and peer-reviewed studies.
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications for First Street and a demographer by training, laid out to Axios via email the new research's usefulness as well as its limitations.
He said the models don't account for climate adaptation measures such as stricter building codes and sea walls to shield coastal areas from storm surge flooding.
They also don't include inflation, which could miss non-climate-related housing market appreciation, along with other market forces that could also run counter to climate-risk-related losses in value.
The bottom line: These results are best used to identify locations that are most at risk for climate change-related increasing insurance costs, property devaluation and population change, Porter said.
The big picture: Musk's comments early Monday followed reports that two senior USAID security officials were placed on administrative leave after denying representatives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which the billionaire spearheads, access to internal systems during a visit to the agency's D.C. headquarters.
While representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening, the president told reporters earlier Sunday that USAID was "run by radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.
Trump has already ordered a freeze on foreign aid as part of his "America first" foreign policy. The U.S. government is the world's single largest humanitarian donor.
Driving the news: Musk said during a late-night discussion with former DOGE co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on his X Spaces platform he went over USAID issues in detail with Trump and checked with him a few times if he was sure that he wanted to shut it down and he agreed to do it.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO also accused the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance of being "incredibly politically partisan," without going into specific examples.
Zoom in: Ernst, who's previously led investigations into USAID, said "there are probably some arguments to be made about what could be important work that falls under USAID, but the fact of matter is, it has been overshadowed by these bad actors."
She suggested if there are "truly good pro-American programs, let's move them to the State Department," to which Musk replied: "Exactly."
Ernst emphasized the need for oversight while giving examples of what she said were her findings of waste in USAID, while Ramaswamy said there was a need for the agency's "deletion."
Musk said he was looking to shut USAID down because it's "a bowl of worms" with no apple, so you've "got to get rid of the whole thing" because it's "beyond repair."
Zoom out: Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday to demand answers about the DOGE representatives' USAID visit.
They raised concern that the reps may have accessed American citizens' data and classified spaces, and that the subsequent placing on administrative leave of senior USAID personnel might compromise national security.
Katie Miller, a Trump appointee on DOGE's advisory board, said on X: "No classified material was accessed without proper security clearances" during the visit.
Maine native Amy Allen is the first woman to be awarded Songwriter of the Year.
Allen was considered for writing Sabrina Carpenter's Grammy-winning song "Espresso" in addition to songs by Justin Timberlake, Tate McRae and Olivia Rodrigo.
The record for wins in the Best Pop/Duo Performance category was broken by Lady Gaga, who now has three.
She won this year for "Die With A Smile," a collaboration with Bruno Mars.
Her previous wins were for "Rain On Me" with Ariana Grande (2021) and "Shallow" with Bradley Cooper (2019).
The Texas National Guard was "granted the power of immigration officials to make immigration arrests" under an agreement with the Trump administration that state Gov. Greg Abbott said Sunday was effective "immediately."
Why it matters: The national guard's increased powers are part of President Trump's immigration crackdown vow to expel millions of undocumented immigrants, which saw him sign executive orders declaring a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border soon after taking office.
State of play: The deal between Customs and Border Protection and Texas "boosts man power for border security," Abbott said on X Sunday evening.
A memorandum of understanding authored by CBP Acting Commissioner Pete Flores has yet to be "disseminated to all Texas border sectors," per Breitbart, which first reported on the deal.
Representatives for Abbott's office did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening on when this would happen.
The agreement will enable soldiers to conduct "roving patrols and exercise all the duties of an immigration agent so long as a U.S. immigration officer or Border Patrol agent accompanies them," per Breitbart.
Representatives for CBT did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.
Zoom out: A Jan. 23 Department of Homeland Security directive gave Justice Department law enforcement officials in the U.S. Marshals, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Federal Bureau of Prisons authority to investigate and apprehend suspected undocumented immigrants.
Trump's attempt to expand "fast-track" deportations without a full hearing is being challenged in an American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) lawsuit, which argues it violates federal law and the Fifth Amendment's due process clause since it nearly erases full court hearings entitled to immigrants.
The big picture: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), which has been on the ground since Friday, says it'll take several days — or potentially weeks — to collect and analyze evidence from the sprawling crash site.
The latest: Investigators have recovered the jet's black box, the NTSB said Sunday night.
They found it 8 feet underground, along with an enhanced ground proximity warning system that could contain flight data. They also found the plane's engines.
The parts are being sent to the agency's lab in Washington, D.C. to be analyzed.
Investigators also obtained surveillance footage and several statements from witnesses. They encouraged the public to email NTSB with video and photos of the crash.
The agency said it expects to have a preliminary reportdone within 30 days.
But a final report with a probable cause won't come for 1-2 years.
The crew didn't send any distress messages from the cockpit and didn't respond to a transmission from air traffic control, NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said.
"It looks like a rocket that comes straight down," David Evans, an airline transport pilot and flight instructor, told the Inquirer. "Even a Lear has some sort of glide capability. It just looks so highly unusual."
Based on air traffic control recordings, the weather at the time of the incident and publicly available flight path data, the two most likely culprits are either spatial disorientation in a low overcast cloud layer immediately after takeoff, or some catastrophic mechanical failure, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick — a pilot — tells us.
Juan Browne, a commercial pilot and aviation accident expert, tells Axios spatial disorientation is more common at night when pilots are reliant on their instruments to help them fly.
The lack of a distress call and the steep, rapid decline suggest the pilots were "110 percent task saturated" trying to safely navigate, Browne says. "We call it 'helmet fire' in the industry."
Caveat: Only after the official investigation may we have a full understanding of what happened.
That the aircraft impacted the ground so violently will no doubt complicate investigators' work, given the state of the physical evidence, Axios' Fitzpatrick adds.
What they're saying: Tammy Duffy, a 59-year-old pharmaceutical representative from Hamilton, New Jersey, tells Axios she was stuck in rush-hour traffic near Cottman Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard when the plane struck.
The explosion and a fiery mushroom cloud sent people running for their lives.
"Time froze," says Duffy, who shut her vents to keep acrid smoke from entering her car. "It reminded me of 9/11."
Commissioner Lisa Deeleysaid on X the tragedy has shaken the neighborhood where she grew up: "You see these things on TV, but it's totally different when it is in your own backyard," Deeley wrote.
Heather Long, who lives near the crash site, told Axios residents are worried about how they'll get to work this week — since many streets are still barricaded with police officers preventing traffic from entering or leaving.
"We don't have any answers," Long said. "I want to know when we can leave."
What's next
"Long-term recovery": That's what the city's Managing Director Adam Thiel is warning residents to brace for as the massive effort to restore normalcy to the neighborhood gets underway.
The crash site along Cottman Avenue — a busy corridor with a mix of homes and businesses — stretches at least a half-mile between Bustleton Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard.
Aerial footage shows a deep crater in the ground there, and a debris field that officials said likely spans several miles.
The full extent of the damage isn't even known yet, officials said: They'll only be able to assess it after the crash investigation.
Mike's thought bubble: I went down to the site Sunday and saw the usually bustling, noisy hub brought to a standstill — a surreal feeling.
The scene was eerily quiet even though there were police, investigators and onlookers everywhere, and I watched investigators use an excavator to hoist the charred remains of abandoned cars onto a tow truck.
State of play: Roosevelt Boulevard is expected to open by rush hour Monday morning, Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said Sunday.
The Roosevelt Mall is expected to reopen on Tuesday, Kristen Moore, a spokesperson for mall owner Brixmore Property Group tells Axios.
PECO has restoredservices to the neighborhood, except for some buildings that were impacted by the crash.
It's not clear when Cottman Avenue will reopen to traffic.
What we're watching: The city is still working to figure out exactly how many people were displaced or missing due to the crash.
"It is possible there are still people … that we don't know about," Thiel said Sunday.
Officials will hold a town hall meeting at 7pm on Wednesday to answer residents' questions and share more resources. The location is TBD.
The city is partnering with three organizations so residents can soon donate to people impacted by the crash.
Following reports that Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) representatives accessed the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) D.C. headquarters, American citizens' data and classified spaces, Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio to demand answers.
When asked for comment on USAID, Trump told reporters Sunday evening: "It's been run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.
The big picture: Senate Democrats said in a statement on their letter to Rubio Sunday they're concerned the Musk-headed DOGE reps' possible unauthorized access of USAID and the subsequent placing on administrative leave of senior personnel from the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance "Compromises our National Security."
Zoom in: The Democrats wrote they've received reports that individuals who identified themselves as working for DOGE accessed classified spaces during their visit and it's unclear whether they had proper security clearances.
"We understand that the security guards present at the facility were threatened when they raised questions," per the letter from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the SFRC's Democratic members.
"Following this incident, the senior management of the Office of Security, which secures USAID personnel and facilities and safeguards national security information, were placed on administrative leave," added the Democrats, who said they hadn't been notified of the visit.
"The potential access of sensitive, even classified, files which may include the personally identifiable information (PII) of Americans working with USAID, and this incident as a whole raises deep concerns about the protection and safeguarding of matters related to U.S. national security."
The intrigue: The USAID website appeared to be offline over the weekend, with www.usaid.gov returning the message: "This site can't be reached."
What they're saying: Responding to a report that two senior USAID officials had been placed on administrative leave, Musk said on X Sunday: "USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die."
He did not immediately provide evidence of crimes committed.
Katie Miller, whom Trump appointed to the DOGE advisory board in December, said on X: "No classified material was accessed without proper security clearances."
What we're watching: The Democrats requested "an immediate update" on details of the incident and demanded to know whether "any PII of American citizens was breached, and whether any review is underway regarding potential unauthorized access to sensitive personnel information and classified materials."
Zoom out: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. Brian Mast (Fla.) Mast said on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday he's working with Rubio on addressing State Department reauthorization and "the purging of people throughout the State Department, other agencies, when we're freezing aid."
When CBS' Margaret Brennan asked for clarification, Mast said: "If you want to take a look at the State Department, where DEI has been a priority over, let's say, diplomacy on many accounts."
The Senate Democrats said in their letter any effort to "merge or fold" the Congress-established USAID into the State Department "should be, and by law must be, previewed, discussed, and approved by Congress."
Representatives for the State Department and the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.
The Dallas Mavericks on Saturday posted a video of Luka Dončić decked out in cowboy attire — black boots, a hat and a bolo tie. It was National Texas Day.
Nine hours later, the team had traded their superstar to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Why it matters: The trade is one of the most stunning and confusing moves in the league's history. It will drastically change the Mavericks' trajectory and reputation.
The latest: "Seven years ago, I came here as a teenager to pursue my dream of playing basketball at the highest level," Dončić wrote in a statement titled "Dear Dallas" on Instagram.
"I thought I'd spend my career here and I wanted so badly to bring you a championship," he wrote.
The Slovenian native went on to say the love he received as a Mavericks player was more than he dreamt of, and that he is leaving a city that "will always feel like a home away from home."
State of play: The Mavericks traded Dončić, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick from the Lakers, per ESPN reporter Shams Charania, who broke the story late Saturday.
The deal involves the Utah Jazz also taking a player from the Lakers and getting two future draft picks.
The trade came as a surprise to Dončić and players and coaches across both franchises, Charania reported.
Fans protested outside the American Airlines Center yesterday, setting up Dončić gear, flowers and signs near Nowitzki's statue. Resale ticket prices for the Mavericks-Lakers game in April in Dallas have more than doubled since the trade news broke.
The intrigue: The Lakers have apparently had their sights set on Dončić for a while, hoping he is the future of the franchise after LeBron James retires.
James has been a Dončić fan for years. He described Dončić in 2020 as a "team-first" player who approaches the sport with a "sense of joy."
Reality check: Dončić has been prone to injuries, often missing multiple games in a row. He hadn't played since Dec. 25 because of a calf injury.
How it happened: The Mavericks approached the Lakers about the trade, which was in the works for several weeks, per the Dallas Morning News.
Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison said during a news conference yesterday that the talks began as a "would you ever?" coffee conversation with Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka.
The deal was kept a secret, with no coaches or players in the loop.
"We really believe in it, and time will tell if I'm right," Harrison said.
Zoom in: During a news conference Sunday,Kidd looked down most of the time, not saying much initially.
Toward the end, he said he supported Harrison's decision but was trying to stay focused on Sunday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The lineup was grim, with several Mavericks players out because of injuries.
"When you look at the team and what Nico wants to build, I truly support that and truly believe the players we are getting can achieve that," Kidd said.
Zoom out: Mark Cuban once said that if forced to choose between his wife and Dončić's, he'd be headed for divorce.
Cuban has since sold his majority stake in the Mavs to Las Vegas casino magnate Miriam Adelson and her family and is no longer involved in daily basketball operations.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Panama officials that Chinese influence over the Panama Canal must be curbed or the U.S. will take retaliatory actions, the State Department said Sunday.
Why it matters: Rubio's warning to Panama President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha is another pressure point on the country since President Trump said he intended to regain control of the Panama Canal.
The trip to Panama is Rubio's first abroad since being sworn in as secretary of state.
Driving the news: Since winning a second presidential term last November, Trump has tripled down on his demands regarding the Panama Canal, and hasn't ruled out using military force to obtain control of it.
His demands include U.S. ships paying lower rates to use the canal — after claiming that Panama charges American ships more than other nations.
Trump's complaints are partially based on the fact that a Hong Kong-based company has a contract for running the canal, which has been under Panama's control since 1999.
Mulino has so far rejected Trump's demands to hand over control of the canal back to the United States.
What they are saying: Rubio told Mulino and Martínez-Acha that Trump has made "a preliminary determination" that the current Chinese influence over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said in a statement.
Rubio said that it is also a violation of the treaty between the U.S. and Panama which defines the neutrality and operation of the canal.
"Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty," Bruce said.
The other side: After his meeting with Rubio, Panama's president told reporters his country won't give up the control over the canal, but stressed that the government is going to conduct an audit of Chinese operated ports on both sides of the canal and present the findings to the U.S.
Mulino also said Panama will not renew its agreement with China about Beijing's Belt and Road initiative, that will expire next year and will check if it can get out of it sooner.
