A novel new report combining several strands of research finds that human-driven climate change could result in $1.47 trillion in net property value losses from rising insurance costs and shifting consumer demand.

Why it matters: Insurance costs are increasing faster than mortgage payments. That's squeezing homeowners and eventually leading to climate change-driven migration away from high-risk areas in the Sun Belt and the West.

The report from First Street, a climate risk financial modeling company, identifies the five largest metro areas likely to see the biggest spikes in insurance premiums: Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans and Sacramento.

Zoom in: The report is based on peer-reviewed models of how climate change may affect insurance prices, migration and economic patterns, among other factors.

• The findings are particularly timely given the recent, devastating wildfires in Southern California, which caused an estimated $20 to $30 billion in insured losses and raised the topic of how insurance premiums price wildfire risks.
• According to the new research, climate impacts may disrupt historical migration to Sun Belt states as risks of climate change-worsened extreme weather events continue to grow.
• First Street estimates that unrestricted, risk-based insurance pricing would yield a 29.4% increase in average insurance premiums across the country by 2055.

This would include an 18.4% correction for "current underpricing" and an 11% increase from climate risk increases.

The intrigue: The economic, climate and demographic modeling behind this report predicts that more than 55 million Americans will "voluntarily relocate within the U.S. to areas less vulnerable to climate risks by 2055."

• This would include 5.2 million internal climate migrants in 2025.
• Economic growth has been thought of as a shield of sorts to retain population in areas that suffer from increasingly severe climate change-related disruptions.

In its analysis, First Street warns that may not hold up through 2055, with some metropolitan areas crossing "tipping points" in which they begin to see net declines in population.

• Already, researchers found that fast-growing cities in the South, Southeast and West have pockets of higher climate risks where homes are gaining value more slowly than similar homes in less risky areas.
• There may be winners, however, with northern, currently less-populated areas from Montana to Wisconsin — and in parts of the East — taking in more people because of the region's greater climate resilience.

Between the lines: First Street's report itself hasn't been peer reviewed, and there are important caveats and uncertainties associated with the work, since it combines results from multiple models and peer-reviewed studies.

• Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications for First Street and a demographer by training, laid out to Axios via email the new research's usefulness as well as its limitations.
• He said the models don't account for climate adaptation measures such as stricter building codes and sea walls to shield coastal areas from storm surge flooding.
• They also don't include inflation, which could miss non-climate-related housing market appreciation, along with other market forces that could also run counter to climate-risk-related losses in value.

The bottom line: These results are best used to identify locations that are most at risk for climate change-related increasing insurance costs, property devaluation and population change, Porter said.

Elon Musk said he's spoken with President Trump on the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and "he agreed" that "we should shut it down."

The big picture: Musk's comments early Monday followed reports that representatives for Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which the billionaire is spearheading, had visited USAID's D.C. headquarters and accessed classified spaces and American citizens' data.

• While representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening, the president told reporters earlier Sunday that USAID was "run by radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.

Driving the news: Musk said during a late-night discussion with former DOGE co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on his X Spaces platform he went over USAID issues in detail with Trump and checked with him a few times if he was sure that he wanted to shut it down and he agreed to do it.

• The Tesla and SpaceX CEO also accused the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance of being "incredibly politically partisan," without going into specific examples.

Zoom in: Ernst, who's previously led investigations into USAID, said "there are probably some arguments to be made about what could be important work that falls under USAID, but the fact of matter is, it has been overshadowed by these bad actors."

• She suggested if there are "truly good pro-American programs, let's move them to the State Department," to which Musk replied: "Exactly."
• Ernst emphasized the need for oversight while giving examples of what she said were her findings of waste in USAID, while Ramaswamy said there was a need for the agency's "deletion."
• Musk said he was looking to shut USAID down because it's "a bowl of worms" with no apple, so you've "got to get rid of the whole thing" because it's "beyond repair."

Zoom out: Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday to demand answers and raise concern that the DOGE representatives' and the subsequent placing on administrative leave of USAID senior personnel might compromise our national security.

Go deeper: Trump says USAID run by "lunatics" as Dems demand answers on DOGE visit

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Beyoncé and Lady Gaga were leading the charge as set women set historical benchmarks and broke records on Sunday, as predicted.

The big picture: Among the breakthrough moments, Beyoncé became the first Black artist to win Best Country Album for "Cowboy Carter."

• The Houston native also nabbed her very first Album of The Year win.
• The wins extended her lead for the most Grammy awards won by an artist.

Other milestones from the 67th Grammy Awards

With five wins, Kendrick Lamar's hit record "Not Like Us" is the most awarded rap song in Grammy's hisotry.

• What's next: Lamar will play the Super Bowl Halftime show.

Maine native Amy Allen is the first woman to be awarded Songwriter of the Year.

• Allen was considered for writing Sabrina Carpenter's Grammy-winning song "Espresso" in addition to songs by Justin Timberlake, Tate McRae and Olivia Rodrigo.

The record for wins in the Best Pop/Duo Performance category was broken by Lady Gaga, who now has three.

• She won this year for "Die With A Smile," a collaboration with Bruno Mars.
• Her previous wins were for "Rain On Me" with Ariana Grande (2021) and "Shallow" with Bradley Cooper (2019).

The Texas National Guard was "granted the power of immigration officials to make immigration arrests" under an agreement with the Trump administration that state Gov. Greg Abbott said Sunday was effective "immediately."

Why it matters: The national guard's increased powers are part of President Trump's immigration crackdown vow to expel millions of undocumented immigrants, which saw him sign executive orders declaring a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border soon after taking office.

• It follows a Jan. 23 Department of Homeland Security directive giving Justice Department law enforcement officials in the U.S. Marshals, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA),the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Federal Bureau of Prisons authority to investigate and apprehend suspected undocumented immigrants.

State of play: The deal between Customs and Border Protection and Texas "boosts man power for border security," Abbott said X Sunday evening.

• A memorandum of understanding authored by CBP Acting Commissioner Pete Flores has yet to be "disseminated to all Texas border sectors," per Breitbart, which first reported on the deal.
• Representatives for Abbott's office did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening on when this would happen.
• The agreement will enable soldiers to conduct "roving patrols and exercise all the duties of an immigration agent so long as a U.S. immigration officer or Border Patrol agent accompanies them," per Breitbart.
• Representatives for CBT did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

Go deeper... "Just the beginning": Pentagon sending 1,500 troops to U.S.-Mexico border

Investigators are early into their investigation of the plane crash in Northeast Philadelphia that killed seven people.

The big picture: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), which has been on the ground since Friday, says it'll take several days — or potentially weeks — to collect and analyze evidence from the sprawling crash site.

The latest: Investigators have recovered the jet's black box, the NTSB said Sunday night.

• They found it 8 feet underground, along with an enhanced ground proximity warning system that could contain flight data. They also found the plane's engines.

The parts are being sent to the agency's lab in Washington, D.C. to be analyzed.

• Investigators also obtained surveillance footage and several statements from witnesses. They encouraged the public to email NTSB with video and photos of the crash.

The agency said it expects to have a preliminary report done within 30 days.

• But a final report with a probable cause won't come for 1-2 years.

Zoom in: The medical jet climbed to about 1,500 feet before descending at a 45-degree angle and crashing on Cottman Avenue about 3.5 miles away from the airport, according to city and federal officials.

• The crew didn't send any distress messages from the cockpit and didn't respond to a transmission from air traffic control, NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said.
• The jet was in the air for less than a minute.

"It looks like a rocket that comes straight down," David Evans, an airline transport pilot and flight instructor, told the Inquirer. "Even a Lear has some sort of glide capability. It just looks so highly unusual."

Based on air traffic control recordings, the weather at the time of the incident and publicly available flight path data, the two most likely culprits are either spatial disorientation in a low overcast cloud layer immediately after takeoff, or some catastrophic mechanical failure, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick — a pilot — tells us.

• Juan Browne, a commercial pilot and aviation accident expert, tells Axios spatial disorientation is more common at night when pilots are reliant on their instruments to help them fly.
• The lack of a distress call and the steep, rapid decline suggest the pilots were "110 percent task saturated" trying to safely navigate, Browne says. "We call it 'helmet fire' in the industry."

Caveat: Only after the official investigation may we have a full understanding of what happened.

• That the aircraft impacted the ground so violently will no doubt complicate investigators' work, given the state of the physical evidence, Axios' Fitzpatrick adds.

What they're saying: Tammy Duffy, a 59-year-old pharmaceutical representative from Hamilton, New Jersey, tells Axios she was stuck in rush-hour traffic near Cottman Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard when the plane struck.

• The explosion and a fiery mushroom cloud sent people running for their lives.
• "Time froze," says Duffy, who shut her vents to keep acrid smoke from entering her car. "It reminded me of 9/11."

Commissioner Lisa Deeley said on X the tragedy has shaken the neighborhood where she grew up: "You see these things on TV, but it's totally different when it is in your own backyard," Deeley wrote.

Heather Long, who lives near the crash site, told Axios residents are worried about how they'll get to work this week — since many streets are still barricaded with police officers preventing traffic from entering or leaving.

• "We don't have any answers," Long said. "I want to know when we can leave."

What's next

"Long-term recovery": That's what the city's Managing Director Adam Thiel is warning residents to brace for as the massive effort to restore normalcy to the neighborhood gets underway.

The crash site along Cottman Avenue — a busy corridor with a mix of homes and businesses — stretches at least a half-mile between Bustleton Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard.

• Aerial footage shows a deep crater in the ground there, and a debris field that officials said likely spans several miles.
• The full extent of the damage isn't even known yet, officials said: They'll only be able to assess it after the crash investigation.

Mike's thought bubble: I went down to the site Sunday and saw the usually bustling, noisy hub brought to a standstill — a surreal feeling.

• The scene was eerily quiet even though there were police, investigators and onlookers everywhere, and I watched investigators use an excavator to hoist the charred remains of abandoned cars onto a tow truck.

State of play: Roosevelt Boulevard is expected to open by rush hour Monday morning, Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said Sunday.

• The Roosevelt Mall is expected to reopen on Tuesday, Kristen Moore, a spokesperson for mall owner Brixmore Property Group tells Axios.
• PECO has restored services to the neighborhood, except for some buildings that were impacted by the crash.
• It's not clear when Cottman Avenue will reopen to traffic.

What we're watching: The city is still working to figure out exactly how many people were displaced or missing due to the crash.

• "It is possible there are still people … that we don't know about," Thiel said Sunday.

Officials will hold a town hall meeting at 7pm on Wednesday to answer residents' questions and share more resources. The location is TBD.

• The city is partnering with three organizations so residents can soon donate to people impacted by the crash.

Following reports that Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) representatives accessed the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) D.C. headquarters, American citizens' data and classified spaces, Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio to demand answers.

The latest: Elon Musk said he's spoken with President Trump about USAID and "he agreed" that "we should shut it down."

• When asked for comment on USAID, Trump told reporters Sunday evening: "It's been run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.

The big picture: Senate Democrats said in a statement on their letter to Rubio Sunday they're concerned the Musk-headed DOGE reps' possible unauthorized access of USAID and the subsequent placing on leave of senior personnel from the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance "Compromises our National Security."

• Congress "established USAID "as an independent agency, separate from the Department of State, to ensure that we can deploy development expertise and U.S. foreign assistance quickly, particularly in times of crisis, to meet our national security goals," they wrote.
• "For this reason, any effort to merge or fold USAID into the Department of State should be, and by law must be, previewed, discussed, and approved by Congress," added the letter from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the SFRC's Democratic members.

Zoom in: Democrats told Rubio they've received reports that individuals who identified themselves as working for DOGE accessed classified spaces during their visit and it's unclear whether they had proper security clearances.

• "We understand that the security guards present at the facility were threatened when they raised questions," per the Democrats, who said they hadn't been notified of such a visit.
• "Following this incident, the senior management of the Office of Security, which secures USAID personnel and facilities and safeguards national security information, were placed on administrative leave," they added.
• "The potential access of sensitive, even classified, files which may include the personally identifiable information (PII) of Americans working with USAID, and this incident as a whole raises deep concerns about the protection and safeguarding of matters related to U.S. national security."

The intrigue: The USAID website appeared to be offline over the weekend, with www.usaid.gov returning the message: "This site can't be reached."

What they're saying: Responding to a report that two senior USAID officials had been placed on administrative leave, Musk said on X Sunday: "USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die."

• He did not immediately provide evidence of crimes committed.

What we're watching: The Democrats requested "an immediate update" on the incident, including whether the DOGE representatives were "authorized to be there and by whom," whether those who accessed classified spaces had the required security clearances and what they were seeking to access.

• They also want to know whether "any PII of American citizens was breached, and whether any review is underway regarding potential unauthorized access to sensitive personnel information and classified materials."

Zoom out: Republican Rep. Brian Mast (Fla.), who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, suggested on CBS Sunday "purging" State Department personnel, which he said he's working on with Rubio.

• Mast said on CBS' "Face the Nation" he'd ensure they'd address State Department reauthorization and "the purging of people throughout the State Department, other agencies, when we're freezing aid."
• When CBS' Margaret Brennan asked for clarification, Mast said: "If you want to take a look at the State Department, where DEI has been a priority over, let's say, diplomacy on many accounts."
• Representatives for the State Department and the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Read the letter, via DocumentCloud:

Go deeper: Musk says Trump has agreed to "shut" USAID down

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The Dallas Mavericks on Saturday posted a video of Luka Dončić decked out in cowboy attire — black boots, a hat and a bolo tie. It was National Texas Day.

• Nine hours later, the team had traded their superstar to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Why it matters: The trade is one of the most stunning and confusing moves in the league's history. It will drastically change the Mavericks' trajectory and reputation.

• "😳," Mavs great Dirk Nowitzki posted on X.

The latest: "Seven years ago, I came here as a teenager to pursue my dream of playing basketball at the highest level," Dončić wrote in a statement titled "Dear Dallas" on Instagram.

• "I thought I'd spend my career here and I wanted so badly to bring you a championship," he wrote.
• The Slovenian native went on to say the love he received as a Mavericks player was more than he dreamt of, and that he is leaving a city that "will always feel like a home away from home."

State of play: The Mavericks traded Dončić, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick from the Lakers, per ESPN reporter Shams Charania, who broke the story late Saturday.

• The deal involves the Utah Jazz also taking a player from the Lakers and getting two future draft picks.
• The trade came as a surprise to Dončić and players and coaches across both franchises, Charania reported.
• Fans protested outside the American Airlines Center yesterday, setting up Dončić gear, flowers and signs near Nowitzki's statue. Resale ticket prices for the Mavericks-Lakers game in April in Dallas have more than doubled since the trade news broke.

The intrigue: The Lakers have apparently had their sights set on Dončić for a while, hoping he is the future of the franchise after LeBron James retires.

• James has been a Dončić fan for years. He described Dončić in 2020 as a "team-first" player who approaches the sport with a "sense of joy."

Reality check: Dončić has been prone to injuries, often missing multiple games in a row. He hadn't played since Dec. 25 because of a calf injury.

How it happened: The Mavericks approached the Lakers about the trade, which was in the works for several weeks, per the Dallas Morning News.

• Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison said during a news conference yesterday that the talks began as a "would you ever?" coffee conversation with Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka.
• The deal was kept a secret, with no coaches or players in the loop.
• "We really believe in it, and time will tell if I'm right," Harrison said.

Zoom in: During a news conference Sunday, Kidd looked down most of the time, not saying much initially.

• Toward the end, he said he supported Harrison's decision but was trying to stay focused on Sunday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The lineup was grim, with several Mavericks players out because of injuries.
• "When you look at the team and what Nico wants to build, I truly support that and truly believe the players we are getting can achieve that," Kidd said.

Zoom out: Mark Cuban once said that if forced to choose between his wife and Dončić's, he'd be headed for divorce.

• Cuban has since sold his majority stake in the Mavs to Las Vegas casino magnate Miriam Adelson and her family and is no longer involved in daily basketball operations.
• Cuban confirmed to WFAA that he wasn't involved in Dončić's trade.

What's next: Kyrie Irving could become the face of the Mavericks franchise as Davis adjusts to the team.

• The Mavericks are 26-24. The playoffs begin in April, if they make it.

The bottom line: It's hard to imagine Dallas without Dončić.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Panama officials that Chinese influence over the Panama Canal must be curbed or the U.S. will take retaliatory actions, the State Department said Sunday.

Why it matters: Rubio's warning to Panama President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha is another pressure point on the country since President Trump said he intended to regain control of the Panama Canal.

• The trip to Panama is Rubio's first abroad since being sworn in as secretary of state.

Driving the news: Since winning a second presidential term last November, Trump has tripled down on his demands regarding the Panama Canal, and hasn't ruled out using military force to obtain control of it.

• His demands include U.S. ships paying lower rates to use the canal — after claiming that Panama charges American ships more than other nations.
• Trump's complaints are partially based on the fact that a Hong Kong-based company has a contract for running the canal, which has been under Panama's control since 1999.
• Mulino has so far rejected Trump's demands to hand over control of the canal back to the United States.

What they are saying: Rubio told Mulino and Martínez-Acha that Trump has made "a preliminary determination" that the current Chinese influence over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said in a statement.

• Rubio said that it is also a violation of the treaty between the U.S. and Panama which defines the neutrality and operation of the canal. 
• "Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty," Bruce said.

The other side: After his meeting with Rubio, Panama's president told reporters his country won't give up the control over the canal, but stressed that the government is going to conduct an audit of Chinese operated ports on both sides of the canal and present the findings to the U.S.

• Mulino also said Panama will not renew its agreement with China about Beijing's Belt and Road initiative, that will expire next year and will check if it can get out of it sooner.

Go deeper: Trump dreams of empire expansion

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from Panama President José Raúl Mulino.

As trade war fears circulate, lawmakers are manning their posts: Democrats are warning prices will skyrocket — while Republicans say the potential discomfort will be worth it in the end.

The big picture: Economists fear the across-the-board tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China — and the immediate retaliation that followed — could further stress already strained U.S. households and walk back recent economic gains.

• Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional 10% tariffs on China could effectively tax the average U.S. household an extra $830 this year, an analysis from the nonpartisan nonprofit Tax Foundation found.
• The president conceded in a Sunday Truth Social post that there may be "SOME PAIN" as a result of his tariffs on the U.S.' top three trading partners, but he contended "IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID."

Zoom out: Some of his close allies on Sunday echoed that sentiment.

• Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that if "prices go up, it's because of other people's reactions to America's laws."
• Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) characterized Trump's tariffs as a border tool, telling NBC's Kristen Welker they "are meant to bring Canada and Mexico the table for the fentanyl that is streaming into our communities."
• Almost all of the 21,900 pounds of fentanyl seized last year was at the southwestern border, but 43 pounds was recovered at the northern border, according to Customs and Border Patrol statistics.

Vice President JD Vance said before Trump signed off on his anticipated tariffs that "we'll see what happens" regarding retaliation.

• He argued in an interview aired Sunday on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures" that the real retaliation was "Donald Trump saying, 'no more.'"

Yes, but: Trump's campaign-trail vision for tariffs as a cure-all does not align with the consumer consequences and supply chain disruptions economists and business interest groups foresee.

• Tariffs can raise revenue for the governments imposing them — but the impact of tariffs can be passed on to consumers through a wide array of everyday products.
• Most of the country's avocados and beer, for example, come from Mexico. Auto parts, oil and gas are also key resources the U.S. imports from Canada.
• Former Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) said on CNN's "State of the Union" said she's concerned that the president doesn't know his "end game" on his tariffs, adding, "If you're going to pick a fight in a bar, maybe you should scope the exits."

Between the lines: For months, senators stressed they saw Trump's tariff threats as a negotiating tactic, Axios' Stef W. Kight, Justin Green and Hans Nichols report.

• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told "Fox News Sunday" that "these tariffs are designed to get these countries to change their behavior" and that if those changes are made, "I think the tariffs probably go away."
• Lawmakers who spoke to Axios ahead of Trump's tariff kickoff often pointed to concerns about the taxes on imported goods triggering a rise in inflation, which was a sore spot for Democrats in November.

But the tariffs happened — and now Democrats are on offense.

• Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) characterized the move as the "Donald Trump Super Bowl tax," on CBS News' "Face the Nation," noting key imports from Mexico — like beer, avocados and tomatoes — could carry a larger price tag.
• His fellow Virginian, Sen. Tim Kaine (D), said Trump's first-term tariffs were "a tax on Virginia consumers," predicting Americans will see "higher prices for energy, higher prices for groceries."
• Kaine said he was struck by what he saw as the "irony" of Trump's executive order declaring an "energy emergency" followed by 10% tariffs on Canadian energy.
• "The emergency is self-created," Kaine said.

Go deeper: Trump builds a tariff wall

Cars that are made in America aren't only made in America — they're made across North America.

• As a result, Trump's across-the-board tariffs on all trade with Mexico or Canada risks making U.S. autos much more expensive than foreign imports.

Why it matters: The U.S. auto industry could shut down within a week, by some estimates, thanks to these tariffs. Even if it doesn't, there is no automaker that's set up to operate in a world of high-friction North American border duties.

The big picture: With modern supply chains, a single component in a vehicle can cross the U.S. border between six and eight times before final assembly.

• Trump's order makes it clear that duty is payable every time any component crosses into the U.S. — there's no "drawback" allowed that limits the tariff to just the value added abroad.

Zoom out: What that means is that the 25% tariffs won't just be payable on full vehicles that have their final assembly in Mexico, like the Chevrolet Equinox or the Ford Maverick.

• They're also going to affect nearly all of the components in nearly all cars made in North America, often multiple times over.
• Aside from the actual tariffs themselves, there's also no infrastructure in place to even place a precise dollar value on all the components that travel back and forth, let alone fill out customs paperwork on them.

The bottom line: If you add up all the tariffs that are going to apply to U.S.-made vehicles, they could easily end up dwarfing total tariffs on finished cars imported from Europe, Japan, or Korea.

• Far from boosting the U.S. auto industry, these tariffs, if they stay in place for any length of time, could end up decimating it.

Gen Z men think they need to earn about 15% more to be "financially successful" than young women do, per a new study digging into the thorny question of what "making it" really means.

Why it matters: Even at a young age, the gender wage gap is driving very different perceptions of need and success.

• It also speaks to Gen Z's broad shift to the political right, as young men in particular feel disillusioned by the economy and what it offers them.

Driving the news: YPulse, a youth research organization, surveyed 1,000 people ages 13-39 and asked them "How much would you need to make as an annual salary (e.g. the money you earn at a job per year) for you to be financially successful?"

• It was prompted by a widely reported study last year, published by financial services company Empower, that showed a huge gap between Gen Z and other generations in the definition of a success-making salary.

By the numbers: The male respondents to YPulse's survey, on average, estimated they'd need a salary of $69,500 a year to feel successful.

• That's almost 16% more than the roughly $58,600 average response from women.

Between the lines: According to YPulse, the gender pay gap plays a significant role in the disparity.

• Women have suppressed expectations because they know they're likely to earn less in the workforce.
• That gender wage gap is actually widening, per Census data, and matches almost exactly the YPulse findings.

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) on Sunday mirrored ex-Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's nominee for director of national intelligence, when he dodged classifying Edward Snowden as a traitor.

Why it matters: Gabbard's refusal to call Snowden a traitor during her Senate confirmation hearing Thursday reportedly prompted some GOP discomfort.

What they're saying: Schmitt danced around the same question during a Sunday interview on "Meet the Press."

• "I think people are tired of these games, of sort of this 'gotcha' stuff. Look, he's [Snowden] been indicted," Schmitt said when pressed by NBC News' Kristen Welker. "If he ever comes back to the United States he's going to have a trial. But this idea of you trying to disqualify people by using these terms is ridiculous."
• When asked again about Snowden, Schmitt said: "I think it's totally ridiculous to try to smear people who are trying to serve this country because, again, it's sort of 'gotcha.'"

Catch up quick: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said that when he posed the question to Gabbard, for whom he has expressed his support, he expected it to be "an easy softball question."

• But when Lankford asked Gabbard if Snowden was a traitor for leaking highly classified information, the ex-Democrat did not give a yes-or-no answer.
• She instead said she would be "committed if confirmed as director of national intelligence to join you in making sure that there is no future Snowden-type leak."

The other side: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on "Meet the Press" Sunday that he was "puzzled" by Gabbard's inability to call Snowden a traitor and found Schmitt's subsequent dodge "interesting."

• "I mean, the definition of a traitor's pretty simple," Kelly said. "I mean, whether or not somebody betrayed our country, and in the case of Edward Snowden we know he did."
• He added that he thinks many of his GOP colleagues "will still have questions about her nomination."

Between the lines: Schmitt said he is still "100%" a yes on Gabbard and predicted she will "do just fine" when senators gather to cast their votes. The Senate Intelligence Committee vote on Gabbard has not been scheduled.

• Elon Musk and the MAGA masses have also mobilized behind Gabbard, turning the heat on those who could tank her confirmation chances, including Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.).
• Media reports have indicated that Young is reluctant to vote for Gabbard, prompting Musk to accuse the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), an NGO where Young is a board member, of being "RIFE with CORRUPTION."
• An X account, which Musk retweeted, claimed Young's involvement with NED creates a conflict of interest when it comes to opposing Gabbard.
• But Musk posted later Sunday afternoon that he had an "excellent conversation" with Young, adding, "I stand corrected."

Go deeper: Snowden support threatens Tulsi Gabbard's Senate confirmation

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include comments from Sen. Mark Kelly and Musk.

Vice President JD Vance defended President Trump's contention that the tragic plane collision in Washington, D.C., was connected to diversity, equity and inclusion hiring practices within the Federal Aviation Administration.

Driving the news: "The president made very clear that he wasn't blaming anybody, but he was being very explicit about the fact that DEI policies have led our air traffic controllers to be short staffed," Vance said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." "That is a scandal."

• Trump did not provide evidence to back up his claims during a Thursday afternoon press conference where he railed against his predecessors and DEI initiatives, and drew widespread condemnation from Democrats and industry representatives.
• There are widespread shortages of air traffic controllers — but there's no evidence that DEI hiring policies have impacted aviation safety.
• U.S. Census Bureau and IPUMS statistics show air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists are predominately male and white.

Driving the news: But Vance said during the interview that the "DEI regime" of the Biden administration led to air traffic control not hiring "the best and the brightest."

• He claimed the "elimination of DEI hires and DEI policies" will allow the FAA to hire "the air traffic controllers that we need."
• Vance argued air traffic controllers were not being hired because of "the color of their skin," claiming there is a "very direct connection between the policies of the last administration and short-staffed air traffic controllers."

Reality check: The standards to be certified as an air traffic controller are "not based on race or gender," said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, in a Friday statement.

• Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy gave no evidence that DEI initiatives led to staffing shortages or safety concerns on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday, but he said the COVID-19 pandemic had a "huge impact" on hiring and training.

Zoom in: A 2023 inspector general report found that the pandemic prompted training pauses for nearly two years, significantly increasing air traffic controller certification times.

• Training can take more than three years, according to the report, which said the FAA has taken "limited efforts to ensure adequate controller staffing."
• Staffing did increase from pandemic levels under the Biden administration, per NATCA and FAA data.
• But Daniels told CBS just 10,800 certified controllers are doing the job when there should be 14,335.
• An internal FAA report said one controller was working two jobs at the time of the crash, AP reported. The second air traffic controller had left early that evening.

Catch up quick: Trump ordered a review of federal aviation hiring on Thursday, calling for a "systematic assessment of any deterioration in hiring standards and aviation safety standards and protocols during the Biden administration."

• The hiring language Trump railed against was included in FAA regulations during his first term and was promoted on the agency's website since 2013, according to the AP. The Trump administration removed it shortly after he returned to the White House.

Go deeper: What to know about the victims of the D.C. plane crash

There's an unspoken, ugly rule of American politics: Do unto the other what they have done unto you.

• Simply put: Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party — if they prove effective.

Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.

• That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
• They did it to us. So we'll do it, too — on steroids.

The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.

• We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.

Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:

1. Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation — payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
2. Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
3. Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure — but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
4. Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed — but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
5. Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could — but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office — with paper value that reached tens of billions — with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.

What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts — so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power? 

• Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years — Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.

Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.

• Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
• Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack — though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.

The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use — and expand — many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."

Flights throughout the U.S. could experience "residual delays" Sunday morning due to a temporary warning system outage, according to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.

The big picture: It is unclear if the outage was tied to the broad changes and deletions across federal sites, which led to several pages and datasets going dark.

• Duffy said in a Saturday night statement shared to social media that the Federal Aviation Administration was working to restore the temporary outage of the primary Notice to Air Missions system, which alerts pilots about hazards or "abnormal" information that would impact flight operations.

The latest: Duffy said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that the "lead system" is now "online and working."

• There was "minimal disruption" as a result of the outage, he said, adding he wants to "expedite" fixes to the NOTAM system, which he described as "an old system that needs to be upgraded."

Catch up quick: Duffy on Saturday said there was no impact on the National Airspace System because "a backup system is in place."

• "We are investigating the root cause and we will provide updates," he wrote.

By the numbers: There have been 657 delays within, into, or out of the country as of Sunday around 9:20am ET, per air traffic tracker Flight Aware.

• There have been 64 cancellations within, into, or out of the U.S.

Zoom in: The outage comes days after the fatal midair collision of a regional jet and Black Hawk helicopter in Washington, D.C., the deadliest air carrier crash in the U.S. since November 2001.

Flashback: This is not the first time the Notice to Air Missions system, which communicates hazards like closed runways or airspace restrictions in real time, has gone down.

• In 2023, the FAA ordered airlines to pause all domestic departures after an outage.

Go deeper: What the data says about Trump's DEI air crash claims

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from Duffy on CNN's "State of the Union."

Don't want to wait for that trendy bagel or fashion pop-up? You can hire someone.

Why it matters: More people are paying for line-standing services.

• Bookings for such jobs rose 18% at the end of 2024 compared to 2023, according to Taskrabbit data shared with Axios.

How it works: Users hire a line stander online — Taskrabbit rates average $27 per hour — and discuss details, like when to swap places in the queue.

Demand is especially hot in New York City, where Taskrabbit requests for someone to wait for reservations at Lucali, a star-studded Brooklyn pizzeria, surged 30% from September to October of last year.

The big picture: Gig workers aren't the only people in the waiting game, much to the frustration of some customers.

• Businesses in cities including New York, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles offer similar services.

What they're saying: Savvy designer shoppers often recruit line sitters for sample sales.

• "When I reached out to my usual guy, he told me that he had 50 requests already for line sitters," NYC TikTok user Saheedat Abdul posted last fall.
• (She'd tried to hire someone to wait from 4 a.m. to 9 a.m. for The Row's luxury sample sale.)

And it's not just about exclusive items. Line sitters can wait at the DMV or city hall.

• Some even held spots at President Trump's hush money trial.

The other side: You can pay to skip the line nearly everywhere. But there might be mental health benefits to waiting it out, according to psychologist Maggie Mulqueen.

• "When we denigrate the act of waiting, we risk losing an important part of our shared humanity," she wrote for CNN in 2023.

The penny is seemingly immortal: Thousands of people have tried to kill it, but every time it has survived.

Why it matters: It now meets what might be its most formidable adversary yet, in the form of Elon Musk.

Driving the news: A post from the official DOGE account on X makes clear what everybody who has studied the subject already knows — that pennies are, quite literally, weighing down the American economy.

• "Few things symbolize our national dysfunction more than the inability to stop minting this worthless currency," wrote Caity Weaver in a 7,500-word jeremiad for the NYT Magazine last September.

By the numbers: The 240 billion pennies lying around the U.S. collectively weigh about 600,000 tons — the weight of three Nimitz-class aircraft carriers.

• The overwhelming majority of them made their way after being minted to some retailer, where they were given out in change. After that, they just stopped being used, because almost no one actually spends pennies.
• In fact, cash broadly is increasingly rare as a form of payment. Only about 16% of payments are made in cash, per the Federal Reserve banks, and cash is no longer the most popular form of payment even for purchases under $25.
• Then there's the cost — in fiscal 2024 the U.S. Mint reported each 1-cent penny cost 2.72 cents to produce, the 17th consecutive fiscal year the coin cost more to make than it was worth.

The big picture: The penny is such an anachronism that many of the original arguments for its abolition can now be applied to nickels and dimes, too.

• The last time the U.S. discontinued a coin was in 1857, when the half-cent sensibly disappeared. That coin was worth almost twice as much as a contemporary dime.

For the record: A DOGE spokesperson, asked whether they intend to abolish the penny, responded with "Shouldn't you ask Treasury?"

• Treasury didn't respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Dimes and smaller denominations serve no useful purpose. In a rational country, the nation's pockets would be weighed down with them no longer.

The future of the Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal is hanging on the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that is set to take place on Tuesday at the White House, three Israeli officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to move forward with the first phase of the deal between Israel and Hamas. Families of the hostages — and Israeli negotiators — are concerned he won't follow through to the second phase as he fights for political survival.

Israeli officials told Axios that Netanyahu is waiting to see where Trump stands on the second phase of the deal — which is supposed to lead to a permanent ceasefire, and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza — before he makes any decisions.

• Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on the second phase are supposed to begin Monday. But there's already a major gap: Hamas wants to end the war and stay in power in Gaza. Israel opposes ending the war as long as Hamas is still in power in Gaza.
• Netanyahu hopes he'll be able to influence Trump's thinking and convince him to endorse his plans for the war in Gaza, the officials said.
• One Israeli official said that if Netanyahu decides not to move toward the second phase of the deal, the implication could be at least another year of war in Gaza in an attempt to topple Hamas.

Driving the news: Israeli officials say the negotiations won't start on Monday, as outlined in the deal, because Netanyahu decided not to send the negotiations team to Doha before he meets with Trump on Tuesday.

• Netanyahu is expected to arrive in Washington on Sunday evening.

The Israeli Prime Minister's office said Netanyahu spoke on the phone with White House envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday.

• "They agreed that the negotiations on the second stage of the hostages deal will begin at their meeting in Washington this Monday, the 16th day of the agreement, within the framework of which they will discuss the Israeli positions," the statement said.
• The office said that later in the week, Witkoff will speak with the Prime Minister of Qatar and the director of Egyptian intelligence, who are mediators in the negotiations.
• "He will then discuss with the Prime Minister steps to advance the negotiations, including dates for the departure of delegations to the talks," the prime minister's office said.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu was supposed to hold a meeting on Saturday night with the heads of the negotiations team — Mossad director David Barnea, Shin Bet director Ronen Bar and Israeli Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon.

• A senior Israeli official told Axios the negotiations team intended to present Netanyahu with a plan for beginning negotiations on the second phase of the deal, in an effort to push talks with Hamas in a positive direction.
• But shortly before the meeting was scheduled to begin, Netanyahu canceled it. He sent his military adviser, Maj. Gen. Roman Goffman, to notify the heads of the negotiation team that the prime minister decided not to send a delegation to Qatar at the moment, the Israeli official said.
• "Netanyahu made this decision without even holding a discussion with the negotiations team and hearing them out. He prefers not to do anything until the meeting with Trump," the official said.

Netanyahu's decision not to send the delegation to Qatar comes two days after he informed the heads of the negotiation team that his confidant, Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, will take over as chief negotiator, two Israeli officials said.

• The officials said Netanyahu's reasoning was that the negotiations on the second phase of the deal are more political and strategic in nature, and are directly connected to the "day after" plan for Gaza that Dermer has been working on.
• Netanyahu said the negotiations will be conducted mainly with Witkoff, who is Dermer's counterpart.

But some Israeli officials think Netanyahu is trying to have full control over the negotiations, and marginalize the role of the heads of the security and intelligence services in the talks.

• A senior Israeli official said Barnea and Bar warned the prime minister that this change could harm the negotiations on the second phase of the deal, and emphasized that the talks are not with the U.S. but with Hamas through Qatar and Egypt.

What to watch: "The real serious negotiations over phase two will only begin after Bibi meets Trump," a senior Israeli official said. "Nothing meaningful will happen before that."

For many Black women, Trump's presidency isn't just a political reckoning — it's a wake-up call to turn inward, prioritize self-care, and build movements rooted in their own needs and empowerment.

The big picture: After overwhelmingly backing Democrats, many Black women are now stepping away from politics to focus on themselves and their communities.

State of play: "Our well-being, the well-being of our children and our communities, cannot be based on the whimsical nature of white folks or a particular political party," LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, told Axios on Friday.

• She said just as Black people realized during the Reconstruction era that they would have to take hold of their futures, building their own cities, churches, homesteads and banks, Black people have to do the same today.
• "I can't afford just to respond. I've got to reimagine," Brown said. "I can't afford just to fight. I've got to build."

Win With Black Women, a group that raised over $3 million for the Harris-Walz ticket in 2024, now aims to protect former Vice President Harris' legacy by "advancing Black women into leadership roles."

• "No matter who is in the White House, Black women will continue to champion the progress that Vice President Harris has led whether in our own neighborhoods, communities, or in Washington, D.C.," said Holli Holliday, a WWBW partner and president of Sisters Lead Sisters Vote.

As Nikki Frenney, a political influencer, put it, "Rest is resistance."

• She campaigned for Harris and created the viral AI graphic "92%" inspired by artist Navi' Robins — an image featuring an American flag and a woman in a 92% t-shirt, symbolizing the percentage of Black women who voted for Harris.
• Now, she's launching a 92% movement focused on wellness, economic empowerment, and cultural connections for Black people.
• "I believe we have to prepare ourselves for chaos that could be coming down the pipe, simply based on the previous four years that we had in the Trump administration," Frenney said before Trump's inauguration.

Then-Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt (now the White House press secretary) told Axios Trump "will unify the country through success."

Catch up quick: Since then, Trump rolled back diversity, equity and inclusion and affirmative action programs.

• In response, corporations such as Target, Amazon and Boeing began rolling back DEI work that helped propel Black women and business owners into spaces predominantly occupied by white entrepreneurs.

What they're saying: Republicans control all three branches of the federal government, and "Now the guard rails are off," Frenney said.

Robins said "maybe they know what they're doing, whatever it may be, but in my mind, it's like at this point, we need to stop being martyred."

• He said it's time for America to see itself for what it is, with Black people having long been scapegoats for the country.
• "We're not the reason why any of this is happening," he said.

Zoom in: Brooke Floyd, director of programs for the Jackson, Mississippi-based nonprofit People's Advocacy Institute, told Axios the idea of turning inward to build your own community is one that has always been at the heart of her organization.

• People want to see Medicaid expansions, more comprehensive healthcare coverage, criminal justice reform and clean water, especially in Jackson following a water crisis, Floyd said.
• They have real concerns about public education funding reaching Black children.
• "We fight the issues and not the people," Floyd said.

Zoom out: Cicley Gay, a Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation board member and philanthropic strategist with more than 20 years of experience, told Axios before the inauguration a lot of people are "reactive to what they believe a Trump administration will look like."

• "And as an organization, we're not going to obsess over him," she said.
• Gay canvassed for Harris and has been tasked with helping rebrand the Black Lives Matter nonprofit mired in financial controversy and division.
• "We are going to look far beyond this presidency," she said.
• She detailed her vision for "a future fully divested from policing and prisons and punishment paradigms, a future for BLM in particular that invests in justice, joy and culture."

More from Axios:

• Harris puts Democratic Party's "backbone" front and center: Black women
• Democratic activists shaken — and say they need a new plan

President Trump on Saturday imposed across-the-board tariffs on North American allies and China, which sparked immediate retaliation against domestic manufacturers.

Why it matters: After weeks of "will he or won't he," Trump opted for sweeping levies that could de-link economic ties with top trading partners. The impact on American consumers and businesses may be profound.

Zoom in: Mexican and Canadian imports are now subject to 25% tariffs — with the exception of energy from Canada, which will face 10% tariffs.

• The White House also announced additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods — many of which already face import taxes held over from Trump's first term.

What they're saying: The White House said the tariffs, which take effect on Tuesday, were a response to an emergency threat posed by undocumented immigrants and drugs.

• The Trump administration said the tariffs would remain in place "until the crisis is alleviated."
• The executive orders include clauses that say the U.S. may "increase or expand in scope" the tariffs if the nations retaliate.

Hours after the White House orders, retaliation started: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory measures that would put 25% tariffs on more than $100 billion worth of U.S. exports, including beer, food products and appliances. Some tariffs will begin to take effect on Tuesday.

• Trudeau also encouraged Canadians to buy locally-made products — skip Florida-made orange juice or Kentucky bourbon — and forego U.S. vacations.

What to watch: Business interest and lobbying groups, which have cheered Trump's expected deregulatory and tax policies, released a flurry of statements condemning the orders.

• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in a statement, warned the tariffs "will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains."
• "The Chamber will consult with our members, including main street businesses across the country impacted by this move, to determine next steps to prevent economic harm to Americans."

Between the lines: The impact of the tariffs could be passed on to a wide range of everyday consumer products.

• Trump insists tariffs are not inflationary, though he conceded Friday they could cause "temporary, short-term disruption."
• The Tax Foundation estimated Friday that the proposed tariffs would effectively be a tax of $830 a year on the average U.S. household.

Case in point: Most of the U.S. supply of tomatoes, avocados and beer comes from Mexico.

• Auto parts, oil and gas are among the key Canadian exports to the U.S.

The intrigue: Trump is leaning on unprecedented authority to impose tariffs on the largest U.S. trading partners.

• The White House invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a Carter-era law that gives the president wide-ranging powers in an emergency.
• The law has never been tapped to impose tariffs and is likely to draw legal scrutiny.

The big picture: The announcement ends days of drama that left domestic industries guessing and sent financial markets reeling.

• Trump has demanded that Canada, Mexico and China curb the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. In the case of Canada and Mexico, he has demanded tighter border controls for immigration as well.
• It's unclear whether compliance with such asks would be enough to remove tariffs.

Flashback: The White House drew up a tariff plan for Colombian imports in recent days, threatening levies unless the nation agreed to accept flights carrying deported immigrants. When Colombia complied, the threats receded.

What we're watching: In effect, Trump has blown up the free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA, that he negotiated in his first term.

• These new tariffs set the scene for the beginnings of a new global trade war.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with reactions to the executive order.