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Europe's far-right split on Trump's Ukraine squeeze

Europe's far-right leaders are divided over President Trump's approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Why it matters: Trump's embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin and coinciding about-face on U.S. assistance to Ukraine has caught even some of his reliable allies on the continent off guard.


What they're saying: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen condemned the "brutality" of the U.S.' decision to halt aid to Ukraine in an interview with Le Figaro published Tuesday.

  • Dutch populist leader Geert Wilders β€” often referred to as the "Dutch Trump" β€” said Saturday that he and his far-right Freedom Party (PVV) support Ukraine "with conviction," the Brussels Times reported.
  • Italy's far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stressed Sunday the importance of Western unity when it comes to Ukraine and reaffirmed Italy's support for Ukraine.

The other side: Others have endorsed Trump's approach.

  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor OrbΓ‘n backed Trump emphatically and praised the economic benefits of bringing Russia back into the Western fold, AP reported.
  • Alice Weidel, one of the co-leaders of the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, posted on X about the contentious White House meeting, writing, "Historic. Trump & Vance!"

Catch up quick: Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week, before pausing military aid to, and intelligence sharing with, Ukraine this week.

The big picture: Trump's first month in office has upended America's long-held alliances in Europe and reshaped the post-World War II international order.

Go deeper: What's behind Trump's views on Ukraine and Russia

Exclusive: U.S. holding secret talks with Hamas

The Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas over the release of U.S. hostages held in Gaza and the possibility of a broader deal to end the war, two sources with direct knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.

Why it matters: The talks β€” held by U.S. presidential envoy for hostage affairs Adam Boehler β€” are unprecedented. The U.S. had never before engaged directly with Hamas, which it designated a terrorist organization in 1997.


Behind the scenes: The meetings between Boehler and Hamas officials took place in Doha in recent weeks.

  • While the Trump administration consulted with Israel about the possibility of engaging with Hamas, Israel learned about aspects of the talks through other channels, one source said.
  • The sources spoke with Axios on the condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the sensitive meetings.

Zoom in: The talks have focused in part on the release of U.S. hostages, which is within Boehler's remit as hostage envoy.

  • But they have also included discussions of a broader deal to release all remaining hostages and reach a long-term truce, the sources say. No deal has yet been reached.
  • White House envoy Steve Witkoff also planned to travel to Doha this week to meet the prime minister of Qatar about the ceasefire negotiations but canceled the trip on Tuesday night after he saw there was no progress from Hamas' side, a U.S. official said.

Between the lines: Trump's approach to the conflict has differed sharply from President Biden's, including repeatedly threatening "hell to pay" for Hamas and proposing a U.S. "takeover" of Gaza.

  • Directly negotiating with Hamas β€” particularly without buy-in from Israel β€” is another step previous administrations have not taken.

State of play: 59 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces have confirmed 35 of them are dead. Israeli intelligence believes 22 hostages are still alive, and the status of two others is unknown.

  • Among the remaining hostages are five Americans including one, 21-year-old Edan Alexander, who is believed to be alive.
  • The 42-day ceasefire that was part of the first phase of the Gaza deal expired on Saturday after the parties couldn't reach an agreement on extending it.
  • The fighting hasn't resumed, but Israel halted all humanitarian aid delivery to Gaza where an estimated 1.9 million Palestinians β€” 90% of the population β€” have been displaced by the war, and famine looms.

What they're saying: The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office did not offer comment prior to publication.

USAID must pay nearly $2 billion in contracts, Supreme Court says

The Supreme Court refused to halt a lower court ruling Wednesday that required the Trump administration to unfreeze some $1.9 billion in foreign aid payments.

The big picture: Wednesday's order from the highest court marks one of the first times the justices have intervened since Trump's return to the White House as a litany of legal cases involving his administration's policies move through the federal court system.


  • The administration turned to the high court after U.S. District Court Judge Amir Ali ordered the administration to pay invoices and letter of credit drawdown requests to USAID and State Department contractors for work completed before Feb. 13.

Driving the news: The court split 5-4 in denying the government's request to overrule the lower court decision after Chief Justice John Roberts issued a stay pausing Ali's order one week ago.

  • Ali initially set a Feb. 26 deadline for the administration to disburse payments.
  • Because that deadline has passed, Roberts wrote in the court's opinion, the district court should "clarify what obligations" the administration must fulfill to comply with Ali's order.

Catch up quick: Last month, Ali ordered the administration to temporarily restore funding β€” only to reiterate that order days later, finding the administration had "not complied" fully.

  • The lawsuit was brought by organizations that said Trump's 90-day freeze impacted their work on foreign aid, which the plaintiffs consider an unconstitutional overreach "harming global health and security."
  • As part of a Department of Government Efficiency-led upheaval of the federal bureaucracy and search for "waste" in the government, the Trump administration said last week it would nix 92% in foreign assistance-related grants.
  • While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly said the department would issue a waiver exempting life-saving humanitarian aid from the freeze, organizations across the globe β€” and an official within USAID β€” say resources remain unreachable.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story and will be updated with more information.

White House says Ukraine weapons and intel pause will lift when Russia talks set

The U.S. will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Wednesday.

Why it matters: The U.S. decision to pause military aid is increasing pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to move toward negotiations with Russia to end the war.


Behind the scenes: One U.S. source with knowledge of the details said the suspension of intelligence sharing mostly focuses on information that could help Ukraine conduct attacks inside Russian territory.

  • A second source close to the Ukrainian government said the intelligence-sharing pause was the key issue that convinced Zelensky to put out a statement on Tuesday expressing regret for his public spat with President Trump and committing to peace talks.
  • The source said that while Ukraine could have managed for quite some time without U.S. weapons, the suspension of intelligence sharing has immediate negative effect on the Ukrainian army's operations.

What they're saying: CIA director John Ratcliffe confirmed in an interview on Fox Business that Trump ordered a pause on intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

  • "President Trump had a real question about whether President Zelensky is committed to a peace process. He said let's pause. I want to give you a chance to think about this, and you saw the response, President Zelensky put out a statement saying I am ready for peace," Ratcliffe said.
  • He added that the pause on weapons supply and intelligence "will go away and we will work with Ukraine shoulder to shoulder as we have to push back on the aggression that is there but to put the world at a better place for this peace negotiations to move forward."

The other side: Zelensky's chief of staff Andrei Yermak wrote on X that he had a phone call with Waltz.

  • "We discussed the next steps towards a just and lasting peace. We also exchanged views on security issues and the alignment of positions within the framework of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States. We have scheduled a meeting for our teams in the near future to continue this important work," he wrote.

What to watch: Waltz said in his interview on Fox and Friends that he spoke on Wednesday morning with his Ukrainian counterpart about possible dates and locations for talks between Ukraine and Russia and about appointing negotiation teams.

  • "If we can nail down these negotiations and move towards these negotiations and put confidence building measures on the table, the President will take a hard look at lifting this pause ... Yesterday and today [were] a positive step forward," Waltz said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Specter of tariff relief for Canada, Mexico sends stocks swinging

The market's nerves were on full display Wednesday, as stocks whipsawed with every change in the narrative on the Trump administration's tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Why it matters: Businesses, investors and consumers are all yearning for some clarity β€” instead they're being forced to endure a daily, if not hourly, drip of shifting information and conflicting priorities.


Catch up quick: It all started Monday, when President Trump promised tariffs were coming on Canada, Mexico and China. Stocks dropped.

  • On Tuesday morning he imposed the tariffs, and stocks fell further.
  • Late Tuesday, Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggested on the Fox Business Network that a tariff rollback could arrive on Wednesday. Stocks rallied.
  • Wednesday morning, Lutnick told Bloomberg TV any rollback might target certain sectors, in a limited way and for a limited time. Stocks sold off again, as investors stood by for the actual news to come out.
  • Wednesday afternoon, Bloomberg reported a possible one-month pause on the tariffs for automakers, who are heavily at risk from the new levies. Stocks quickly popped back into positive territory.

The big picture: Fears of a global trade war have weighed heavily on financial markets, after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs against its two largest trading partners.

  • The "Trump bump" that boosted stocks following his election has now been erased, with the S&P 500 lower at Tuesday's close than when he won last year.

What they're saying: "There are going to be tariffs, let's be clear, but what he's thinking about is which sections of the market that can maybe β€” maybe β€” he'll consider giving them relief until we get to, of course, April 2," Lutnick told Bloomberg TV.

  • On April 2, the U.S. is expected to impose reciprocal tariffs on most countries. The size of those levies is still unclear.
  • Trump and Lutnick have both said those tariffs will stack on top of any others imposed or coming.

Zoom in: The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (and increased 20% tariffs on China) are expected to significantly impact prices, and potentially stoke a resurgence of inflation.

  • The Yale Budget Lab, after factoring in potential foreign retaliation and consumers switching to cheaper goods, still estimates the tariffs will cost the typical household $1,100 this year alone.
  • Trump acknowledged in his address to Congress Tuesday that tariffs would cause "a little disturbance," a change in his long-stated position that tariffs don't cause prices to rise.

πŸ’­ Thought bubble, from Axios' Nathan Bomey: A tariff extension would give auto companies more time to move production to avoid or minimize the impact to their business.

  • But meaningful changes in manufacturing plans would likely take much longer, meaning automakers and their suppliers remain deeply exposed to the increased duties.
  • In the meantime, while the companies themselves sweat the tariffs, their workers seem to be all for them.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated throughout with the latest market reactions.

Allergy season is getting longer. Blame climate change

Data: Climate Central;Β Map: Axios Visuals

Most major U.S. cities are suffering from longer allergy seasons amid human-caused climate change, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Millions of Americans endure runny noses, itchy throats, and worse health effects each spring allergy season.


Driving the news: The freeze-free growing season lengthened between 1970 and 2024 in nearly 90% of the 198 cities analyzed by Climate Central, a research and communications group.

  • Among those cities, the freeze-free season lengthened by 20 days on average.

How it works: Climate Central uses the freeze-free period β€” the number of consecutive days with minimum temperatures above 32Β°F β€” as a proxy for allergy season.

  • Above-freezing temperatures allow for better plant growth, and thus the release of more sneeze-inducing pollen.

Zoom in: Reno, Nevada (96 more consecutive freeze-free days from 1970 to 2024); Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (52) and Toledo, Ohio (45) have had some of the biggest increases among the cities analyzed.

  • Conversely, the number of consecutive freeze-free days decreased in places like Waco, Texas (-14); Tulsa, Oklahoma (-14), and Denver, Colorado (-8).

Between the lines: "Climate change makes pollen seasons not only longer, but also more intense due to heat-trapping pollution," per Climate Central's report.

  • "Higher levels of planet-warming CO2 in the air can boost pollen production in plants, particularly in grasses and ragweed."

Threat level: Nationwide pollen production stands to dramatically increase alongside high CO2 pollution, per a 2022 study highlighted in the report.

The bottom line: Pass the allergy spray, would ya?

Behind the Curtain: Trump, on steroids

In this city of little political agreement, there's consensus on one big thing: President Trump is picking more fights, with more action than mere words, with more lasting consequences than anyone expected.

Why it matters: Turns out, Trump wasn't bluffing about imposing 25% tariffs, about pardoning Jan. 6 criminals, or punishing Europe, or rewarding Russia, or growing executive power, or gutting the FBI, or filling his Cabinet with loyalists, or penalizing the media, or taking a wrecking ball to government.


In fact, in most cases, he's taking aΒ more extremeΒ approach than promised or expected.

  • And he's picking big, new public fights that very few, if any, saw coming: Seize the Panama Canal, rename the Gulf, buy Greenland, bully Canada, turn Gaza into a glitzy Riviera, abolish USAID and kneecap the White House Correspondents' Association.

"We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in four years or eight years," Trump boasted as he began Tuesday night's address to Congress. "And we are just getting started," he said, describing his opening weeks as "nothing but swift and unrelenting action."

  • It was a speech on steroids β€” 9,900 words! At 100 minutes, Trump broke the record for a presidential address to Congress, besting President Bill Clinton's marathon 2000 State of the Union address by 11 minutes.
  • Talking about tariffs, Trump said: "There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that."

The big picture: So much has been set in motion so fast, on so many fronts, that it's hard for Trump's own White House to implement and explain much of it, officials tell us.Β Trump and his MAGA supporters love it.

  • But many elected Republicans we talk to privately worry it could just be too much β€” too much to navigate, and too much risk to the two things people care most about: their personal finances and security.
  • Trump remains relatively popular. His sway over Republican elected officials and MAGA media is stronger than ever. And few Republicans with clout protest anything he does in any serious, sustained public way. Indeed, most take to X or Fox News to applaud even moves they privately question or dislike.Β So his confidence isn't misplaced, aides tell us.

Behind the scenes: So far, Trump's White House shrugs at concerns and complaints. If anything, aides' collective confidence is on steroids, too. They admit few mistakes, express zero regrets, and believe wholeheartedly they're right and critics are wrong. But Trump's advisers and friends outside of the White House feel less certain.

  • "Of course I'm worried," one top Trump adviser, who spoke with the president recently at Mar-a-Lago, told Axios' Marc Caputo. "We're still in the honeymoon phase here. But the stock market and that data and the noise from Elon [Musk] aren't great."
  • The adviser added: "He was so confident and at ease that I started to believe I shouldn't be bedwetting."
Data: The American Presidency Project. Chart: Axios Visuals

Trump's surround sound: Trump is killing it β€” if you tune into MAGA media. Axios' Tal Axelrod, our MAGA media expert, said the major right-wing platforms and podcasts, including Steve Bannon's "War Room" and Jack Posobiec, lit up this week with victory cries on Ukraine and tariffs.

Nevertheless, risks for Trump are rising:

  • The stock market fell sharply on Monday when Trump announced he'd press ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then had another big drop Tuesday after they kicked in at midnight.
  • Stoking fears of inflation, Target warned shoppers Tuesday that prices would rise because of the tariffs Trump slapped on China.
  • Last week, consumer confidence plummeted to an eight-month low amid concerns about Trump's trade and tariff policies.
  • Three polls in the past three days have shown Americans questioning whether Trump's keeping his eye on the ball: 82% of U.S. adults said the economy should be a high priority but only 36% thought he was prioritizing that "a lot," CBS News polling found. Only 31% of U.S. adults in a Reuters/Ipsos poll approved of Trump's handling of the cost of living. 52% of U.S. adults in a CNN poll said Trump hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems.

Around the world, old allies are flinching or fleeing:

  • To understand the totality of the simultaneous fights of Trump's choosing, consider the nations we have more tension with now than 44 days ago: Ukraine, Canada, Mexico, Denmark (via Greenland), Germany, Britain,Β France and Panama.
  • Trump can rightly argue that relationships are better with Israel, the Saudis and Russia. But it's old allies turning so quickly into skeptics or potential adversaries that's disrupting geopolitical calculations.

Isolate on Canada: Trump has upended relations in radical ways. America's northern neighbor is now dramatically more feisty, more anti-American and more pro-Liberal Party than it was when Trump took office. We're now locked in a trade war that could hurt some U.S. consumers and, by Canadians' own appraisal, devastate their economy.

  • Trump wants big tariffs and, he keeps suggesting, to make Canada the 51st state. Canada's response: a big middle finger to the USA, promising retaliatory tariffs and strafing Trump's "very dumb" trade war.
  • Trump sees Canada as an insignificant global player and weak neighbor, and incapable of winning a trade war with us, officials say. He's indifferent to prior tight relations, or cooperation, or concerns of fraying partnership, the officials tell us

You could insert Germany or Ukraine or France or Britain into the sentences above, and the same holds true.

  • Trump truly believes most relationships or agreements are transactional. So he's fine being feared or loathed for trying to bully and bluster the best possible deal for America, according to these insiders.

Interestingly, the one area where Trump has been less vocal and draconian than anticipated is expelling illegal immigrants. He has tightened security and dramatically reduced illegal crossings β€” but his plans have run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges, as Axios has reported.

  • As a result of Trump's crackdown, the number of migrants illegally crossing the Southwest border plummeted in February to the lowest level in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios. "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote Saturday on Truth Social.

Axios' Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

  • Go deeper: "Axios coverage in Trump era," by Jim VandeHei.

How the Trump tariffs differ from his first term

Data: Yale Budget Lab; Chart: Axios Visuals

The president announces an audacious new tariff on social media. The media breathlessly quotes economists warning of peril ahead. And the economy chugs along anyway.

Why it matters: That was the pattern in 2018 and 2019, but may offer false comfort for what is to come in 2025.


  • The Trump 2.0 trade war is already on a much larger scale, affecting many more products, than was ever seen in Trump 1.0.

The big picture: This time around, the president is choosing across-the-board tariffs over targeted ones, invoking a legal authority with fewer constraints, and not allowing time for companies to plead their case for special exceptions.

  • All of that increases the odds that the trade war will be more visible to Americans, disrupting supply chains and causing noticeable price hikes for certain items.

By the numbers: When Trump took office in 2017, tariff revenue was about 1.5% of total U.S. goods imports. By 2019, he had roughly doubled that to 2.9%, according to an analysis of federal data by the Yale Budget Lab.

  • If the across-the-board tariffs implemented on Canada, Mexico and China this week remain in place for the remainder of the year, that number is on track to soar to 9.5%, the highest since 1943.
  • There were signs late Tuesday the administration may be seeking to de-escalate, but Trump has also threatened other large-scale tariffs, including on global agriculture products and automobiles.

Flashback: The 2018-2019 tariffs were implemented by invoking Sections 232 and 301 of trade statutes β€”Β the former giving the president authority to impose duties on national security grounds, and the latter to combat unfair trade practices.

  • Those laws demand a process of studies and appeals, which slowed their implementation while preventing unintended consequences.

By contrast, this week's round of tariffs invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president broad powers, with few checks, "to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat."

What they're saying: "During Trump's first term there was breathless coverage and obsession over tariffs but without any obviously discernible economic impact," Harvard's Jason Furman tells Axios. "This time around it is the opposite β€” the tariffs are just one of many, many stories."

  • "But lost in that massive onslaught is the fact that they are much bigger, are coming much faster, and this time you may actually start to see them in the macro data," he says.

Reality check: That doesn't necessarily mean an abrupt slowdown or recession or 2022-style inflation. The United States is a large country that grows most of its own food and generates most of its own energy.

Yes, but: Mainstream estimates do point to this round of tariffs having economic impacts big enough for Americans to feel.

  • Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic estimates that if sustained, they would subtract 1 percentage point from GDP growth this year and raise inflation by 0.6 percentage points, with a particularly notable 10% rise in the price of motor vehicles and parts.
  • "The deterioration in confidence could very well lead businesses to pare or at least delay investments and new hires, consumers to delay purchases, and for financial risk assets, such as equities, to decline or increase in Β volatility," Bostjancic writes in a note.

Trump's forever campaign: 4 takeaways from a marathon address to Congress

President Trump's joint address to Congress devolved, within minutes, into the nastiest partisan food fight in the history of this annual tradition.

Why it matters: It was Democrats, restless and indignant over the state of the country after six weeks of MAGA rule, who started the brawl. But it was Trump, reveling in the chaos and relentlessly on brand, who finished it.


4 takeaways

1. Democrats become the story

  • Defying warnings from Democratic leadership, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) kicked off a night of theatrics by heckling Trump minutes into his speech β€” a breach of decorum that ended with Green's historic ejection from the chamber.
  • Other House Democrats β€” armed with auction-style signs, custom T-shirts and whiteboards (but no eggs)Β β€” protested Trump by turning their backs, booing, shouting "lies," and walking out of the chamber.
  • For a Democratic Party flailing in the wilderness, the disruptions offered a rare opportunity to prove to voters that the "Resistance" has a pulse.

2. Trump's permanent campaign mode

  • Trump's record-long, 100-minute remarks were largely indistinguishable from his campaign stump speeches, but the chance to do televised battle with his Democratic foes was new β€” and he clearly had missed it.
  • Trump referenced President Biden over a dozen times β€” calling his predecessor "the worst president in U.S. history" and accusing him of leaving behind a decimated U.S. economy, "especially" when it comes to the price of eggs.
  • Trump routinely veered off script, mocking Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) as "Pocahontas" and accusing voting-rights activist Stacey Abrams, a Georgia Democrat, of corruption. He also referred to Democrats as "radical left lunatics" as he twisted the knife on their devastating election loss in November.
  • In another sign of his everlasting campaign, Trump called for Congress to outlaw taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits, despite Republicans not expected to pursue those priorities in budget talks.
Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) heckles Trump during his joint address. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images/Bloomberg via Getty Images

3. An ode to tariffs

  • Less than 12 hours after unleashing a massive trade war against Mexico and Canada, Trump acknowledged the potential for tariff pain β€”Β brushing off the stock market's deep uncertainty as a "little disturbance" and "a little bit of an adjustment period."
  • "Bear with me," Trump, who often has cited the stock market as proof his economic policies are working, urged Americans. He then launched into a full-throated defense of tariffs as a revenue raiser, a national security tool and a source of protectionist pride.
  • "Tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs. They're about protecting the soul of our country," Trump declared as he touted recent re-shoring and investment announcements by major companies.

4. Made-for-TV magic

  • True to form, Trump created several viral moments by using his guests to reinforce his priorities on border security, trans athletes in women's sports, crime and the military.
  • He granted honorary Secret Service membership to a 13-year-old cancer patient, broke the news that West Point had accepted an aspiring cadet's college application, and signed an executive order naming a wildlife refuge after a 12-year-old girl killed by an undocumented immigrant.
  • Trump also announced that the alleged architect of the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul, which killed 13 U.S. service members during the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, had been arrested in Pakistan and was en route to the U..S.

The bottom line: Trump's speeches have never been short on hyperbole and ambition, but a whirlwind first six weeks in office have emboldened the president's rhetoric to messianic new heights.

  • "I was saved by God to make America great again," Trump said at one point, referring to the assassination attempt he survived last summer.
  • "We are going to forge the freest, most advanced, most dynamic, and most dominant civilization ever to exist on the face of this Earth."

Turing Award honors AI's reinforcement learning duo

This year's Turing Award β€” often called the Nobel Prize of computer science β€” is going to Andrew Barto and Richard Sutton, the pioneers of a key approach that underlies much of today's artificial intelligence.

Why it matters: Reinforcement learning, as the technique is known, posits that computers can learn from their own experiences, using a system of rewards similar to how researchers have trained animals.


In a joint interview, Barto and Sutton said the award is extremely rewarding, especially given that for much of their career, the technology they pursued was out of vogue.

  • "When we started, it was extremely unfashionable to do what we were doing," Barto told Axios. "It had been dismissed, actually, by many people."
  • "There were periods of time when I could not get funding because I was not doing the current fashionable topic, and I wasn't going to change to what was fashionable," he said.
  • Sutton added that it was "particularly gratifying" to be given this award since it was Alan Turing who proposed the notion of computers learning from their own experiences in a 1950s paper, though it would take decades for there to be enough computing power to test out the notion.

Catch up quick: Sutton, now a computer science professor at Canada's University of Alberta, was Barto's student at the University of Massachusetts in the late 1970s.

  • Throughout the 1980s, the pair wrote a series of influential papers, culminating in their seminal 1998 textbook: "Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction," which has been cited in more than 70,000 academic papers.
  • The approach finally gained prominence in the last decade as DeepMind's AlphaGo began to defeat human players.
  • Reinforcement learning from human feedback is a key method for the training of large language models, while the approach has also proven useful in everything from programming robots to automating chip design.

What they're saying: Google's Jeff Dean said reinforcement learning has been central to the advancement of modern AI.

  • "The tools they developed remain a central pillar of the AI boom and have rendered major advances, attracted legions of young researchers, and driven billions of dollars in investments."
  • Google funds the $1 million prize given each year to the Turing Award winners.

What's next: Both Sutton and Barto believe that current fears about AI are overblown, though they acknowledge that highly intelligent systems could cause significant upheaval as society adjusts.

  • Sutton said he sees AGI as the chance to introduce new "minds" into the world without having them develop biologically, through evolution.
  • "I think it's a pivotal moment for our planet," Sutton said.
  • Barto echoed that cautious optimism: "I think there's a lot of opportunity for these systems to improve many aspects of our life and society, assuming sufficient caution is taken."

Trump turns Canadian politics upside down

Data: 338 Canada; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

President Trump's taunting and tariffs have turned Canadians against the U.S., Prime Minister Justin Trudeau into a fire-breathing nationalist, and his Liberal Party β€” once on track for an electoral wipeout β€” back into a force to be reckoned with.

Why it matters: Trump has imposed big tariffs on the U.S.' closest ally and wants to make Canada the 51st State. Canada's response: a big middle finger to the USA.


Zoom in: Trudeau blasted Trump Tuesday for taking aim at its neighbor and ally while cozying up to Russia, vowing massive retaliatory tariffs in response to the levies imposed by the U.S.

  • Trudeau bluntly told everyday Americans to blame Trump for the coming economic pain, saying "your government has chosen to do this to you."
  • "What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that'll make it easier to annex us," Trudeau said. "We will never be the 51st state."
  • He added: "When it comes to defending our great nation, there is no price we all aren't willing to pay."

The intrigue: Trudeau resigned as Liberal Party leader in January amidst deep unpopularity, as polls showed his party was set to be trounced in October's elections by the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.

  • Yet the onset of the Trump administration has coincided with a change in the party's fortunes.
  • Most polls now show the Liberals trailing only narrowly, and one Ipsos poll published last week gave the party its first lead since 2021.
  • The Conservatives "are facing headwinds from rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal Party's new leadership," Ipsos noted.

Zoom out: The souring relations between the two countries have already reverberated culturally.

  • Canadian fans started booing the U.S. national anthem at hockey games last month, including ahead of a U.S. vs. Canada match that became a moment of national pride when Canada prevailed in overtime. "You can't take our country, and you can't take our game," Trudeau declared.
  • Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky has faced harsh backlash from his fellow Canadians for his past support of Trump β€” prompting a Trump post defending him.
  • Meanwhile, actor Mike Myers wore a "Canada is not for Sale" shirt on Saturday Night Live after portraying Elon Musk.

Several Canadian provinces announced plans last month to remove U.S. liquor from some liquor store shelves, while some Canadian businesses and shoppers have been boycotting American products.

  • Canadian coffee shops have begun renaming Americanos "Canadianos," in a move reminiscent of Americans' attempts to rebrand french fries as"Freedom Fries" during the onset of the Iraq war.

What to watch: Canada is far more reliant on the U.S. economically than vice-versa, but Trudeau emphasized Tuesday that Americans will feel the pain as well.

  • The bad blood is also far from over. "We're probably going to keep booing the American anthem," Trudeau said.

Go deeper: Canada drops the gloves, tells U.S. to blame Trump for tariff pain

Trump: U.S. is "woke no longer"

President Trump used his platform before Congress on Tuesday to affirm the U.S. is "woke no longer" while promoting his blitz of executive orders since taking office six weeks ago.

The big picture: Early in his speech, the president cited symbolic actions he's made since taking office, particularly those pertaining to cultural and social issues dividing the country.


Zoom in: Trump touted having signed nearly 100 executive orders and taking more than 400 executive actions, "a record to restore common sense, safety, optimism and wealth all across our wonderful land," he said. The moves he mentioned:

What he's saying: "Our country will be woke no longer," he said.

  • "We believe that whether you are a doctor, an accountant, a lawyer or an air traffic controller, you should be hired and promoted based on skill and competence, not race or gender," Trump continued.

More from Axios:

Democratic Rep. Al Green escorted out of chamber for heckling Trump during speech

Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was escorted out of the House chamber on Tuesday for heckling President Trump during his address to a joint session of Congress.

Why it matters: It was a breach of decorum, followed by an unprecedented removal of a member of Congress from a presidential speech, that reflects Democrats' desire to show fierce resistance to Trump.


  • Just minutes into Trump's speech, Green stood up and yelled, "Mr. President, you don't have a mandate!"
  • Republicans immediately drowned him out by yelling "sit down" and chanting "U-S-A!" with Green attempting to continue shouting every time they finished.
  • Eventually, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) instructed Green to "cease any further disruptions." When Green refused, Johnson ordered the House sergeant-at-arms to escort him out.

Zoom in: Green is one of the most staunchly anti-Trump members of Congress and has said he plans to introduce articles of impeachment against the president.

  • He is largely alone in that crusade, with Democratic leadership distancing themselves from his efforts.

Zoom out: Green's outburst was part of a broader campaign of disruption waged by Democrats who believe their constituents want to see them ramp up their displays of opposition.

  • Many Democrats held up signs reading "SAVE MEDICAID," "MUSK STEALS" and "LIES". Others wore shirts that said "RESIST" and "NO KING. NO COUP". One brandished a pocket Constitution.
  • Trump was repeatedly heckled by Democrats shouting things like "that's a lie," though not to the same extent as Green.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Trump asks again for more funding for mass deportation plan

President Trump renewed his ask for more funding to carry out his immigration agenda, including border security and "the largest deportation operation in American history" during his address to Congress Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Trump's mass deportation plans are near-impossible to achieve without more money, which Democrats are likely to oppose. Trump Cabinet members, particularly border czar Tom Homan, have made a similar ask for weeks.


Zoom out: During the speech, Trump said he hoped to surpass the deportation record of "current record holder Dwight D. Eisenhower, a moderate man but someone who believed very strongly in borders" β€” a reference to Operation Wetback.

  • That mass deportation, in the 1950s, used military-style tactics to round up 1.3 million Mexicans and Mexican Americans across the country for the-then largest deportation operation in U.S. history. "Wetback" is a racial slur for Mexicans.
  • The president also celebrated new data on border crossings in February that showed they'd declined to their lowest level in decades.

Zoom in: Trump made his case for more funding by repeating messages from the campaign trail, including falsehoods about migrants and immigration policy.

  • Trump repeated debunked claims about the immigrant population numbers in Springfield, Ohio and gang members occupying Aurora, Colo.
  • He repeated that his predecessor, President Biden, had open borders into the country, which he did not.
  • Trump also said that people who illegally crossed the border were "murderers, drug dealers, gang members and people from mental institutions and insane asylums" and invited several guests to underscore his anti-immigration message.

Reality check: There's no evidence that immigrants trying to come into the country were from prisons and mental institutions.

  • Immigrants commit fewer crimes than their American-born counterparts, studies have shown. But Trump and others have elevated individual cases that support their claims, like the death of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley.
  • The 22,797 immigrants out of 43,759 β€” or 52.1% β€” currently held in ICE detention at the various locations across the country have no criminal record, data shows.
  • Many more have only minor offenses, including traffic violations.
  • Less than 0.5% of the 1.8 million cases in immigration courts during the past fiscal year β€” involving about 8,400 people β€” included deportation orders for alleged crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally, an Axios review of government data found.

Between the lines: Trump entered office at a time when U.S. immigration courts already are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases β€” and order the most removals in five years β€” under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

  • A backlog of 3.7 million cases in immigration courts, where immigrants are entitled to make their case to stay in the U.S., means detained immigrants can wait months, even years, for a hearing.
  • Immigration courts are predicted to rule on 852,000 deportation cases from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, according to an analysis of data by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).
  • If that pace continues, immigration judges will decide more deportation cases in 2025 than in any previous year on record.

The other side: Immigrant rights groups quickly denounced Trump's rhetoric around "invasion" or immigrants coming from mental institutions.

  • "It is vital that we remain vigilant against any hateful language that undermines the rich diversity and strength of democracy," Hector Sanchez Barba, President and CEO of the left-leaning Mi Familia Vota said.

In the Spanish language response, U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY) said Trump's immigration policies are not designed to deport criminals who should be deported, "but to create a reign of terror that negatively impacts local economies."

  • The chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said the president was acting "more like a king than like a president."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional comment from Rep. Adriano Espaillat.

Slotkin hits at Musk and "gang of 20-year-olds" in rebuttal to Trump address

Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) slammed Elon Musk's DOGE team that's radically transforming the federal government during her rebuttal to President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday.

Why it matters: In her brief remarks, Slotkin emphasized her bipartisan career history while emphasizing that "America wants change." She knocked the Trump administration's approach, adding: "There's a responsible way to make change and a reckless way."


  • She took aim at Musk, who she said, along with his "gang of 20-year-olds," is acting with "no oversight, no protections against cyber-attack[s], no guardrails on what they do with your private data."
  • "We can make that change without forgetting who we are as a country and as a democracy," she said.

Driving the news: Slotkin emphasized unity and patriotism, noting at the beginning of her remarks that she represents a state that Trump won in November.

  • She called for the need to "expand and protect the middle class," while slamming trump as "trying to deliver an unprecedented giveaway to his billionaire friends."
  • The Democrat also called for fixing the "broken immigration system," saying that securing the border without fixing the system "is dealing with the symptom not the disease."
  • "America is not perfect. But I stand with the majority of Americans who believe we are still exceptional, unparalleled," Slotkin said.
  • "And I would rather have American leadership over Chinese or Russian leadership any day of the week."

The big picture: Slotkin's remarks came immediately after Trump's joint address to Congress, which he used to tout his executive blitz during his first weeks in office, saying he's just "getting started."

  • Trump's speech drew numerous public disruptions from Democrats in the chamber.
  • Some key people in his orbit, including Musk, attended the speech at the U.S. Capitol.

Between the lines: In the weeks since Trump's inauguration, Democrats have been flooded with calls from constituents who want the part to do more to push back against Trump policies.

Go deeper: Who is Elissa Slotkin, the Democrat rebutting Trump's joint address

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

100 minutes of the world according to Trump

President Trump wants to will the country back into the "golden age" he promised on the campaign trail, the headlines be damned.

  • "America's momentum is back. Our spirit is back. Our pride is back. Our confidence is back," Trump said in his first address to Congress of his second term.

Why it matters: This was a record-breaking 100 minutes of the world according to Trump β€” an address largely indistinguishable from a campaign-style speech. He recited the historic number of executive orders, touching every aspect of American life from immigration to sports.


  • 🚒 To thunderous applause from his party, Trump announced a new office of shipbuilding in the White House, to help "resurrect the American shipbuilding industry, including commercial shipbuilding and military shipbuilding," with "special tax incentives to bring this industry home to America, where it belongs."
  • πŸ’°Trump pledged to fulfill his "no tax on tips" campaign trail promise to service-sector workers, and called for car loan interest payments to be tax deductible β€” if the car was made in America.
  • πŸ•ŠοΈ Trump declared peace in Ukraine was closer than ever now that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote him a letter that said he was ready to negotiate.

Reality check: Trump will have a nearly impossible time balancing the budget, as he promised, and cutting taxes. And the economy shows troubling signs: Trump was unmoored from plummeting stock prices, sagging consumer confidence and the specter of rising prices due to tariffs.

  • "There'll be a little disturbance," Trump seemingly ad-libbed about 50 minutes into the speech. It was his clearest acknowledgement that times might be tough.

πŸ“œ Flashback: The contrast with Trump's first address to Congress, in 2017, was notable.

  • Trump in 2017: "The stock market has gained almost $3 trillion in value since the election on Nov. 8, a record."
  • Trump gave no similar stat this time. As of Monday, the stock market had shed all of its $3.4 trillion in post-election gains.

Staying largely on-script, Trump made a few jokes and took a few swipes at Democrats. But for a politician who has a tendency to give dark and grievance-filled speeches, this was his version of the positive future he promised.

  • "This will be our greatest era," Trump promised. "My fellow Americans, get ready for an incredible future because the golden age of America has only just begun."

Democrats seldom applauded, including when Trump announced the arrest of the mastermind behind the deadly Abbey Gate attack in Afghanistan in 2021.

  • Some Democrats walked out on Trump during the speech. And one, Rep. Al Green of Texas, was forcibly removed from the House chamber for repeatedly interrupting Trump.

More from Axios:

Trump praises Musk's DOGE cuts in address to Congress

President Trump praised Elon Musk for his work on DOGE, which he said the billionaire "headed," during Tuesday evening's address to a joint session of Congress.

Driving the news: Musk was met with two standing ovations and protest signs during Trump's speech as he sat as a White House guest of first lady Melania Trump.


New York Democratic Rep. Nydia VelΓ‘zquez and other Democrats hold "Musk Steals" protest signs as President Trump speaks during his address to a joint session of Congress on March 4. Photo: Win McNamee/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

What he's saying: "I have created the brand-new Department of Government Efficiency: DOGE. Perhaps you've heard of it," Trump said during his address.

  • "Which is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight," Trump added, pointing to the world's richest person. "He's working very hard. He didn't need this."

The intrigue: Despite Trump's comment, the White House said in a court filing last month that Musk is not the administrator of DOGE, nor is he an employee of the department that's overseeing massive cuts to the federal workforce and agencies.

The big picture: DOGE has been behind the federal government overhaul that has led to job cuts and funding freezes and rattled Washington, D.C.

Elon Musk arrives for a joint session of Congress in Washington, D.C., on March 4. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Elon Musk is pictured at Trump's primetime address from Capitol Hill. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Go deeper: Federal workers get another "what did you do" email, without Musk threat

Behind the scenes: Pakistan detained alleged plotter of Abbey Gate bombing based on CIA intel

Pakistan recently acted on CIA intelligence and detained a senior ISIS commander who the U.S. claims plotted the deadly Abbey Gate bombing during the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan in 2021, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the issue. President Trump revealed the arrest in his address to Congress on Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Mohammad Sharifullah, one of the leaders of an ISIS branch in Afghanistan and Pakistan, is believed to have devised and coordinated the attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and about 170 Afghan citizens, one official said.


The latest: CIA director John Ratcliffe said in an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday that Sharifullah arrived in Washington, DC on Tuesday night and is now in U.S. custody.

  • White House national security adviser Michael Waltz told Fox and Friends that Sharifullah confessed about his role in the Abbey Gate bombing.

Driving the news: "I am pleased to announce that we have just apprehended the top terrorist responsible for that atrocity," Trump said in his address on Tuesday. He also thanked the Pakistani government for helping to arrest Sharifullah, who he said was at the time being brought to the U.S.

One U.S. official with direct knowledge said Sharifullah, who is also known as "Jafar," was detained by the Pakistani Intelligence Service.

  • An indictment against him is expected to be unsealed on Wednesday, the U.S. official said.
  • A second U.S. official claimed Sharifullah is "the mastermind" behind the attack that took place outside Kabul's international airport on Aug. 26, 2021, and that he planned and oversaw the execution of the bombing.
  • "Because of his role, he has been a high value target of the U.S. intelligence community for several years," the official said.

Flashback: In April 2023, the Taliban killed another senior ISIS-K leader who the U.S. intelligence community believes authorized the Abbey Gate attack. The Biden administration announced his death but didn't provide details about his identity.

Behind the scenes: After CIA director John Ratcliffe was confirmed by Congress in January, Trump instructed him to prioritize capturing the perpetrators of the Abbey Gate attack, the U.S. officials said.

  • In his first days in office, Ratcliffe told CIA counterterrorism officials to make it a top priority for the agency.
  • One U.S. official said the CIA director on his second day in office raised the issue during his first call with his Pakistani counterpart, Lt. Gen. Asim Malik. Ratcliffe reiterated this message during his meeting with the Pakistani spy chief on the sidelines of the Munich security conference in mid-February.
  • A spokesperson for the Pakistani embassy in D.C. did not provide a comment prior to publication.

The CIA has been monitoring Sharifullah for some time but in recent days it received specific intelligence about his location. The CIA provided the information to the Pakistani intelligence agency, which sent an elite unit that captured him near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the officials said.

  • Ten days ago, after the U.S. was notified of Sharifullah's capture, Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel held a call with the Pakistani intelligence chief from CIA headquarters in Langley.
  • Since then the CIA, the Department of Justice and the FBI worked together on his extradition, with Ratcliffe, Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi personally involved, one of the U.S. officials said.

The big picture: The cooperation between the CIA and the Pakistani Intelligence Services over Sharifullah's capture happened after several years of strained relations between U.S. and Pakistani intelligence services.

  • A U.S. official said these tensions negatively affected counterterrorism operations with the Pakistanis.
  • Both sources said the U.S. sees Sharifullah's detainment as a signal that the Pakistanis want to reengage with the Trump administration on intelligence and counterterrorism.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from the Trump administration.

House Freedom Caucus threatens Trump hecklers with censure, arrest

The right-wing House Freedom Caucus on Tuesday issued a threat to try to censure any Democratic lawmakers or guests who disrupt President Trump's speech to Congress.

Why it matters: The declaration is in response to Axios' reporting that some Democrats have considered bringing noisemakers or walking out of the speech to display their opposition to the Republican president.


  • There is considerable internal division within the Democratic caucus about whether to use more disruptive tactics or stick to traditional, silent protest.
  • House Democratic leadership has urged its members not to bring props into the House chamber.

What they're saying: "The President's address to tonight's joint session of Congress is a constitutional obligation β€” not a sideshow for Democrats to use noisemakers, make threats, throw things or otherwise disrupt," the Freedom Caucus' board said in a statement.

  • "Our colleagues are on notice that the heckler's veto will not be tolerated. You will be censured," they continued.
  • The right-wing group also warned that they "expect the Sergeant at Arms and Capitol Police to take appropriate action against any Members of Congress or other persons violating House rules."

Between the lines: Heckling and disruptions have become increasingly common during State of the Union addresses and other speeches to joint sessions of Congress in recent years.

  • Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-S.C.) shouting "you lie" during then-President Obama's address in 2009 was considered a shocking breach of decorum at the time.
  • Biden was repeatedly heckled by Republicans at his State of the Union addresses, with one Republican guest even getting arrested in 2024 for yelling at Biden about the 2021 Kabul airport bombing.
  • Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) β€” both members of the Freedom Caucus at the time β€” chanted "build the wall" during Biden's address in 2022.

Automakers tap COVID playbook to cope with Trump tariffs

After weeks of stalled decision-making, the global trade war automakers were hoping to avoid is now here, providing a measure of clarity that had been missing.

  • While significant disruption is inevitable, at least there's a playbook from the last big shock to hit the industry: COVID.

Why it matters: Though unwelcome, supply chain upheavals are nothing new for carmakers, who have built a culture of resiliency while dealing with everything from tsunamis and fires to labor strikes and safety recalls β€” not to mention the global health crisis.


  • What's different this time, however, is that the industry is on far shakier ground.
  • The trade war is hitting at the same time they're juggling sweeping technological change, regulatory pressures and powerful Chinese competition.

Driving the news: President Trump's promised 25% tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico took effect early Tuesday, along with additional levies on China.

  • Canada and China immediately took retaliatory steps and Mexico signaled it, too, will respond with its own measures.
  • "This isn't hypothetical. All automakers will be impacted by these tariffs on Canada and Mexico," John Bozzella, president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in statement.

The fallout will be almost immediate, with sharply higher vehicle prices and limited availability of certain models, industry experts say.

  • S&P Global Mobility sees potential for 20,000 fewer vehicles produced per day β€” about 30 percent of North American production.
  • Automakers have been stockpiling engines and components in U.S. warehouses for weeks, but some assembly plants are likely to shut down within days, said S&P Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley, speaking at an Automotive Press Association event Tuesday.
  • "At best, we're probably looking at maybe a week's worth of supply of (parts) inventory," she said.
  • "And as you know, if you're building a vehicle, it's going to be stopped on one part (shortage). And we don't know what that magic part is yet."

Flashback: During the pandemic, automakers faced a shortage of semiconductors, which led them to prioritize building high-profit models like pickup trucks and SUVs while idling other plants altogether.

  • Some unfinished vehicles were parked in storage until chips could be installed.

Between the lines: The North American auto industry is deeply integrated, with finished vehicles and auto parts flowing freely across borders.

  • Under the new tariff regime, levies will be added each time unfinished vehicles cross the border, creating layers of increased costs.
  • Plus, new tariffs are coming soon on steel and aluminum, which will add to those higher costs.

Suppliers are already pushing back, telling carmakers they can't absorb the cost of increased tariffs.

  • They're demanding higher prices, and seeking to invoke "force majeure" clauses in existing contracts that release them from obligations due to unforeseen events.
  • As during COVID, automakers are likely to subsidize suppliers' high production costs to ensure they can ramp up again quickly, if and when the tariffs are lifted.

The intrigue: What you likely won't see is factories picking up and moving from Canada and Mexico to the U.S.

  • "OEMs and suppliers will only invest capital and resources if there's long term stability in this issue, and it's not clear we have that quite yet," Brinley said.

The bottom line: The full impact of the tariffs will depend on how long they're in place.

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